Third Row Tesla Podcast - Episode 5 - Tesla's Competition
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- Опубліковано 26 вер 2024
- Hi! This is the fifth installment of The Row Tesla Crew's Video Podcast, featuring guest Sean Mitchell from the All Things EV UA-cam channel! We talk all about Tesla's competition in this 1 hour panel discussion.
You can find Sean on:
UA-cam: / @allthingsev
The web: allthingsev.info
Order a Cybertruck!:
www.tesla.com/...
Find us on:
The web: thirdrowtesla.com
Twitter: / thirdrowtesla
Links to the Third Row Crew members:
Sofiaan Fraval - teslasof.com
Steve Jobs Ghost - wholemars.net
Vincent Yu - www.tesmanian.....
Vivien Hantusch - www.vivien.space/
Kristen K10 - / kristennetten
Galileo Russell - / hyperchangetv
If you'd like to support the podcast on patreon, please sign up here. It really helps us a lot. Thank you! : / thirdrow
Please listen to us using these links:
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple...
Spotify: open.spotify.c...
Web: anchor.fm/thir...
3rd row squadddd
What up Hyperchange😍
@@ThirdRowTesla whadduppp!!!
Question for when you interview Elon: has opening Tesla's patents been useful? Have they been used? By who and how?
This is quickly becoming one of the top 5 best podcasts on Tesla. Great job guy's. 👍🏾 💯
Thanks so much! We hit #20 in the world in tech on Apple podcasts last week!
Hey guys consider getting Greg from Teslafaninsight channel as a guest in the future - he’s really working hard too and definitely has some insights !
2 hour podcast.
Thanks for having me on! I really enjoyed the discussion. The Musk Mafia is the best!
It was an honor to have you on our show!
Great to hear you guys collaborate about Tesla every week. This is very helpful and informative for your followers. You guys are legends
Awe thanks! We appreciate your support.
Something not yet really discussed by anyone is the culture at Tesla versus the traditional. Yes there is the too big to change analogy that Sean mentions, but maybe this is fuel for a more deep dive into this conversation. Where are the quality engineers and programmers at? Where do they want to work? If big companies like BMW, Daimler and Ford have them, why are they not performing at the same level as Tesla? And furthermore, why is Tesla doing all this with only this culture and nearly zero marketing? What's going to happen when Tesla does drop an actual commercial (Circa Apple1984 maybe?) Is that going to be the defining moment when big oil begins its steady decline back into the ground. When should Tesla strike? 2020, 2025? Will they ever strike? so many questions.
Another topic: As a BMW mechanic and business owner for the past 20+ years I am 100% on board with Tesla as well as a shareholder. I have watched in disgust as BMW slowly ruined their reputation for quality cars in favor of marketing focused product. Today BMW is just another car with this claimed "feature or that incentive or this benefit." A BMW purchased tomorrow will not last more than 10 years and BMW has built it that way. That fact is even worse for the environment than what comes from out of the exhaust tip.
Great thoughts and questions. I like to think that we all vote with our $$$. So companies will be forced to change or perish. Tesla and Spacex are two of the most desirable companies that talented engineers want to work because they know they'll be making a positive difference. Also a reason that some customers buy into Tesla without advertising, then love the products and share them with others. This is better than any advertising because it's authentic.
My wife drives a BMW X5 SUV. I drive a model S 100D. Which I absolutely love
We will never have another BMW. Period. Service is incredibly expensive, but the real problem with the car is the poorly implemented, computer interface. I have to be retrained each time I try and use it. It is so counter intuitive!!
@@ckaanta The other car companies all do it with their touch screens. The are simply terrible. There is a reason all the manuals say don't use them while driving.
Sign me up for the Musk Mafia. I'm thoroughly enjoying the adventures of this genius artist/engineer with a mission. Every step forward we humans have ever made comes from creative, abstract, imaginative thought, the art space, and we have that in spades in the hands of a genius engineer. He's a phenomenon of our times, maybe of all times, maybe a step change in our evolution.
Fraud and engineering are mutually exclusive, fraud doesn't make things work. In engineering terms dishonesty is inefficient therefore uneconomical. No need for moral injunctions when honest engineering is far more profitable and word of mouth marketing proves it.
That's a fresh understanding that's likely to catch on.
Does that make you part of the "Mufia"?
(Just sounds wrong?)
You're correct that this is a rare convergence of various disruptive technologies, with what was a startup run by a talented, extremely (!) stubborn engineer. Also starting to be affected by outside influences (climate argument)
@@rogerstarkey5390
(Just sounds wrong?) In this context yes, although I've always been a huge fan of muff.
@@earthwizz
So wrong that it must be right?
@@rogerstarkey5390 I'll definitely be using it.
I’m so glad to see so many of my friends together. Cheers!
Thanks for the kind works man! Love to have you on the show sometime.
Third Row Tesla
Just say the word. Let’s do it!
Sofiaan Matt Farrell with Undecided just did a video on Tesla and competition that is worth the time to watch "Paradox of Success". It would be good to have him on one of these podcasts.
Matt is impressive.
I feel sorry for those who work at Tesla as they are watching this podcast. As they are watching they wish they could be part of the panel and raise their hand and say " I could tell you what is coming down the pipe" but they have to stay tight lipped 🤐.
"Powered by Tesla" sounds awesome. I think the Japanese may be the first to license, given that they are the furthest behind.
Good job cleaning up the format. Great input from smart Tesla people.
You guys are rock
I like “Powered by Tesla” better than “Tesla inside”
🤔 "Enabled by Tesla"
The first thing that Tesla should license is: "First Principals Thinking"
Love the intro !!! You guys (and gals) are killing it
Thank you! It's never a dull moment with Team Third Row :)
love the podcast. Keep em coming
Thanks! Will do
Great Pod guys ! As always. And great discussion. I becoming ( late bloomer 😖) a huge fan of Galie - I like the KISS approach - keep it simple stupid - the points he makes just makes it sound so simple. Sean is awesome in his own way giving a daily user perspective.
And congrats again on that snare “ Elon Musk “ - the community let out a collective gasp !!! Ha ha ha go more mate. Go more.
Thanks mate! Hope you can be our guest sometime too.
Third Row Tesla would love to be on.
What software are you using to host/upload these videos? Zoom? Thanks all of you for taking the time to do these 👊🏻
Skype right now, but zoom soon. We have separate recording in HD for editing.
Sean has a small fact wrong Peter Carlsson CEO of Northvolt was from Tesla HQ in CA not Europe. He was VP supply chain directly under Elon.
Thanks for the info
Kent Öhlund thanks for the clarification!
The environmental impact that places like China, India and even the EU is such that they don't have a choice for their populous. Here in the USA we deny the truth of science while taking "donations" to keep things the same. The rest of the world isn't waiting for the USA to lead.... in more ways than most will feel comfortable with. The evidence of this will become increasing hard to ignore and effects of the disparity between the people and the govt here will widen. Technology is a major part of how to ensure we have a future and law makers, corporations etc who ignore their role and responsibility will have more and more rude awakenings.
2020 is where the rubber hits the road for legacy automakers (pun intended) and it will not be easy as each day passes to survive.
This show is fantastic glad to see all these great minds get together. Subscribed.
Thanks!
Thank you for this discussion! Very interesting!
Just a quick note regarding China - I strongly suspect that dialogue between Tesla and China for Gigafactory 3 began before, and possibly long before, the current Trade War began. Also, it might be quite a while before Tesla EV's built in China are exported to other countries, given that the Chinese market is so hungry for as many EV's as it can get.
@House Essentials That is very much incorrect. Trump's tariffs against China began September 2018. But Tesla announced Gigafactory 3, for the Shanghai area, in July 2018, before the tariffs began, and almost certainly Tesla had already been in lengthy discussions with the Chinese regarding the location and other particulars for this new Gigafactory throughout all of 2018, and probably also for much of 2017. Furthermore, China had already established several courts within China for protection of IP, and foreigners who brought their concerns to those courts were winning the vast majority of their cases, plus the Chinese themselves have also been using those courts in cases against other Chinese. Hence China has been very active in improving its economic environment vis-a-vis the international community for many years, long before Trump ever arrived in Washington. And this new agreement with Tesla for its wholly owned factory near Shanghai is just another example that China has already been moving towards opening its economy more and more to the outside world. In short, Trump's tariffs have had little impact in further "opening" the Chinese economy, plus those tariffs have been hurting the U.S. more than China, especially since about 60% of all Chinese exports to the U.S. are controlled or managed by U.S. companies (hence the U.S. tariffs were against the U.S., not against China), plus China has been shifting its reliance on trade for continued economic growth since the 2008 financial crisis, which means, all things considered, that the U.S. tariffs have had much less impact on China than many in D.C. like to think. Lastly, China's current process of rebirth is quite natural and should not be a surprise to anyone - Napoleon saw this coming back in the early 1800's - and China's economic recovery is only still just getting started. China's per capita GDP is still only about 15% of the U.S., hence China will be able to grow economically another 600% before reaching parity with the U.S., and that growth is all but certain to happen. The only question is when will parity occur, not if. The only thing Trump is doing is pissing off much of the world, and - long term - the impact will be to isolate the U.S. and basically make it irrelevant to the entire global community. Trump's B-School prof. regarded him as "the most stupid student I've ever encountered," and everything Trump has touched during the last 3-4 decades has gone belly up. Trump is a complete fool, and he is severely hurting USA.
@House Essentials
Typical.
Any time somebody provides logical argument which conflicts with your opinion, you run for the hills.
@@gfsrow
Absolutely spot on analysis (imo)
Teslas presence in China it's quite simple.
Mutual benefit.
The single largest world market, enthusiastic (if not desperate?) to produce EV's for environmental AND economic reasons.
The world leader in EV technology, expanding worldwide, with a mission to clean the planet
A relatively cheap and willing work force.
Impressively fast infrastructure build (!)
A mutual respect (without the usual B.S).
Why *wouldn't* it happen?
China: Here is your new gigafactory
Tesla: Great can you make one-hundred more?
China: Sure thing see you in 8 months.
I posted this quote couple of times on other channels: "McDonald franchised restaurants, Tesla will franchise Giga factories"
Omar.
*At last* someone who gets the battery connection!
If we add
Jeff Dahn chemistry ... 10% to start (more to come)
Maxwell dry process (conservative 10× production, cheaper)
Also produces a more resilient cell, so fewer "buffer" cells(?)
Let's say 10% benefit.
Then the part you missed....?
*Battery pack patent*
Using 2170 cells.
*More automated construction.
*50 cell(?) Sub modules. (Universal??)
*Closer cell packaging, with (much) better cooling(!).
And other stuff.....
.......
Consider just these 3 possibilities.
Add the (estimated) incremental gains of:
10% from chemistry.
10% from material resilience
10% from a new pack.
Assuming current density at 250Wh/kg (circa Q2 2019?)
250× 1.1× 1.1× 1.1= 332Wh/kg
That's s cumulative gain of.
332÷250 = 1.32, or 32%.
(Note, applied to the model 3, 75kWh × 1.32 = 100kWh.... Just saying)
.....
Then we have a possible "common pack" (mentioned in the patent!)
*Common cells in all cars.
*Common, or very similar case (mentioned in battery patent)
*Plug in, common modules in all cars.
Offering the possibility of:
*A common BMS(?) Saves $$
*HUGE $$ savings on S/X packs ("build them where you use them"..../margins!)
*Plaid pack(!)
*Maxwell 10× (16×?) Production in a given space = no factory build required ($$$$!)
If large amounts of GF1 are freed up, production for vehicles with no (or little) factory build?
Cybertruck?
Semi?
(Y?)
And other things.
Note.
Lg chem batteries in other manufacturers cars are pouch cells, so would require different production equipment.
.............
Discuss?
Link to patent in this article
www.teslarati.com/tesla-compact-battery-patent-easy-production/
I always thought the Lucid Air had tremendous potential. What is the latest on their efforts?
Why does Sean believe that Telsa would ever partner with or license there tech to ICE automakers? Why help companies that have prevented Tesla from selling cars in several states?
the Tesla mission
Tesla said if 50% of cars sold are electric, their job is done. Getting to that 50% is going to be sped up massively if people help each other
Sean nailed it in min 26 regarding the difficulty in overcoming entrenched LAM cultures!
Cathy K thanks
My only fear of the million mile battery is making my car worth nothing... but of course it won't work that way as older Model S cars are still a decent price.
And I definitely don't think Tesla is licensing anything to anyone. I feel like Tesla would rather destroy everyone else and sell all the EVs rather than license anything. But I think it'd be awesome if they did and a positive for the entire planet.
Dirty Tesla I don’t think you should worry to much..
Million mile battery would most likely be for the semi, we have 6 semis averaging 1.5 million miles and they’re 10-15 years old so it would be a waste to put it in a car. Even today you can find 20 year old vehicles that have under 500 k miles going to the crusher so I think you’ll be safe for awhile 😁
@@winnipeger99 good point!
@@winnipeger99 Yeah, my Corolla is 22-years old now and still has only 130k miles on it. The nice thing about Telsa is that all their bodies will last as long as their batteries. I'm pretty sure my Corolla's body will be completely rusted out before I get to 200k. As for million mile batteries, they will be in all of Tesla's vehicles (cars, trucks and semis). That's just what the warranty period will be. They should last much longer than that. Especially since those same batteries will last another 25 years in grid storage after their done being used in the vehicles. I'm guessing the semis will routinely be getting 2-million miles on both the motors and the batteries, just not still under warranty. What's the normal warranty on diesel semis?
Any Tesla you own now will be the last make/ model with a "depreciation problem"
Other brands?
Imagine owning a current (for instance) when Tesla announces a cheaper, smaller, lighter, more powerful pack?
Licensing Autopilot/FSD so it becomes the de facto industry standard would be a license to print money.
It would be the path of least resistance for legacy car companies who will be under money and time pressure from trying to reinvent the wheel.
OR just let them go bankrupt.
Third Row Tesla has become my #1 EV discussion channel. A suggestion for a future discussion is how the panel thinks personal transportation may evolve. You should listen to the interview with Sebastian Thrun by Lex Fridman, particularly the segment on flying cars at 1:00:13 ua-cam.com/video/ZPPAOakITeQ/v-deo.html Widespread EV adoption then Robo Taxis then flying cars. Sebastian says flying cars are not technologically difficult, it's the regulations that will be difficult.
Tony Seba If you haven't watched his stuff you should. I think he would be a great guest on Third Row.
ua-cam.com/video/6Ud-fPKnj3Q/v-deo.html
Where’s the next one mydudes?! The anticipation is killing me
Same here. We appreciate your patience
you guys are improving fast. Love the better interaction in this podcast. Looking forward for the podcast with Elon!
On the one hand, I wish Tesla fans would give the Taycan a break about their range. That is not what that car is about. The customers for that car really are different. That will not be the only car that their buyers own. Customers will not be loading up the family for a cross country road trip in the Taycan. Their customers are Porsche buyers who want Porsche performance and are willing to pay Porsche prices. They will drive it around town and maybe, maybe take it to a track.
With that being said, the Taycan efficiency is absolutely pathetic and it is indicative of how far ahead Tesla really is when it comes to batteries and electric power trains.
You gotta admit though, for Porche to come out with a car that has 35% less range and is 3 times more expensive than a Model X from 2012 is kinda embarrassing.
@ (34:06) this is a panel of 8 EV enthusiasts and you say let us change gears 😊.
why-not.tv Well, Rimac and Porsche have gears in their EV offerings.
@@KyleHubb that will make it a "double" oops.
@@KyleHubb Thanks for reminding me; Rimac would be my second choice of EV :-D
Bicycles have Gears as do many other great products.
@@michaeldautel7568 but bicycles fall in the hybrid category😊. Their fuel consumption before adding the electric propulsion mechanism (only using calories) was by far the the most efficient in the transportation sector. So in a sense, by making the bicycles hybrid (adding electric assist) it makes them less efficient. It is a trade off for increasing range and comfort.
Love this crew!
If the big ICE players can't make it, there will be plenty of smaller players who could never get a chance competing and having a shot to prove themselves.
Gas prices in EU are much higher than California. Change isn't easy, especially when you don't want to change. Tesla success may force them to change or go broke.
This is pretty cool. Good job!
Thank you
Disruptions like these with Electrification of transportation and autonomous driving will come from the side and from companies you would not expect it.. Like Apple wiped out Nokia and Motorola, with their Iphone.. Apple never made a phone before and was a rather small tech company at the time; Like Sony wiped out Kodak with their digital camera's; Like Ford wiped out the horse industry...
So I think Tesla is just the first company that is about to wipe out a few old car companies, like Sean said, Toyota, Honda and FCA.. But many will follow Tesla's lead, like Rivian, Nio, BYD and maybe VW and Volvo (= Chinese Geely), to wipe out the rest, like BMW, Daimler, Renault and other European companies.
Tony Seba now thinks new ICE car sales will go to zero in 2025, companies like Toyota, relying heavily on ICE sales and not having a contingency plan.. they will be wiped out.
ua-cam.com/video/6Ud-fPKnj3Q/v-deo.html
Tony Seba would be yet another guest to get on the podcast. . . .
@@johnp.weiksnar6861
"The man"!
@@johnp.weiksnar6861 That would make for an AWESOME podcast
IF legacy companies go out of business - well fewer gas cars will be made. They will change or die.
Mission driven - constant improvement - the only company that doesn't wait for competition to improve. Tesla doesn't need other auto. Other auto needs Tesla patents - AND THOSE PATENTS ARE FREE already. I don't expect Tesla to SAVE THESE LEGACY AUTO CO.
OMG all the Tesla fans I follow on Twitter in once place, winner!
C’MON EPISODE 6!!!!!!!
It will be out soon
Third Row Tesla Giggity
Waiting for this is as suspenseful as the V10 update.
Third Row Tesla
What’s soon? Please please hurry
Thomas Reitsma wanna race to be first to comment on Ep. 6? Fair warning, I check if it has been released about every 5 minutes during my waking hours LOL
We need electric busses and legally, all low income housing apartments should be required to install outlets for tenant parking. Make EV's even more available for people with low income.
One thing is clear to me: the whole “stacked packs” thing in CT and Roadster is BS and is to keep battery tech under wraps
I agree. I have already said this is why they don't release the battery size just the expected range and even that has a + next to it.
I'm glad somebody finally said that Porsche should have done better on the Taycan
Glad to see you guys. 🙌
Tesla will not be licensing FSD to anyone who wants any changes that amounts to overhead on the engineers this is almost a quote from a conversation Between Elon and Ark Invest Kathy Woods. There will be no helping them with building it because of the opportunity cost of a useful project. Tesla doesn't have extra battery production, and never will. Battery production in non-FSD vehicles is also a waste of batteries slowing down the deployment of electric vehicles replacing ICE miles. If Volkswagen wants to build tesla a gigafactory to put battery production in and license an existing FSD solution we are just beginning to scratch the surface for the requirements. Also Tesla needs to reward investors by winning, these investors are not short term thinkers appealing to wall street for the quick buck off a half solution. It is also not good to reward people for investing in ICE engines and believing the line that they can swoop in later after the tech is mature and someone else has paid for the technology. In the medium term Tesla can buy up cheep auto factories as we need 20% of the number of cars we once did. Tesla may share patents but the patents protect them from patent trolls. Tesla does not want monopoly scrutiny for being in the charging business. Tesla may not protect their patents but they protect their internal processes and they should. Filling commitments to investors involves both rewarding them and keeping a good name with customers so that they can continue to reward investors. Rewarding investors is the premise that made funding Tesla possible, which makes their mission statement possible. You say you want a revolution? This is how the market delivers it. Lets not go to plan B when plan A is working spectacularly.
Thanks for your thoughts. Great points.
@House Essentials traditionally plan B is something you do if and only if plan A does not work. but I could see somehow trying to return design to multiple competing interests after heel dragging companies die.
Yayyy...love it
Did Ford name this vehicle to poke at Tesla regarding the use of the name "E"? Tesla wanted to use the letter "E" before deciding to use Model "3" and then Ford comes out with a Mach E!.. I wonder if they are tossing it in Tesla's face?
They are trying, but their product isn’t compelling enough.
@@ThirdRowTesla well with current stated specs it is, but history shows tesla hits targets and exceeds them in time old school OeMs dial back the stats at release.
@@ThirdRowTesla
We're already seeing the "would you like fries with that" Jokes!
Yes that is what they were doing. But when someone says Mach E all I can think of is the that terrible Mach chicken that is sold. lol no to good.
I was in China last Month and saw 10% of vehicles in all of China as BEV. No two stroke bikes, all are electric cycles. In Shanghai over 50% BEV. With Tesla‘s new stamping press replacing 16+ robots and folding one piece of metal from the bottom, front and back, and sides, giga factory 3 will definitely out produce US. P.S I do NOT think TESLA will license any of it advanced technology, they would loss their edge. Plus TESLA will not want the liabilities from licensing Autopilot and can not make enough batteries for it’s own cars.
They will want to keep the edge for as long as possible to keep kicking the OEMS in the nads prompting them to build better cars, so yup don't sell or license any of the advanced stuff till VW and Toyota are producing over 2 million EVS each each year.
Brett Mciver Very well stated. The older car maker may not stay solvent. And will fall. Newer more flexible one’s like TESLA and maybe Rivion will lead the EV revolution.
Tesla open sourced all their patents. If other companies want to use Tesla technology they can, just no one has wanted to use Tesla.
@@brettmciver432 Tesla is open sourced.
@@sterrre1 I understand that but much of the secret sauce stuff is not publically patented so no one knows what's going on.
Love this. More plz😁
Thank you! More to come and will blow everyone's minds.
VW is building in Chattanooga, TN. I think they are planning to build batteries there at some point, but right now it's just cars.
Thanks for the info
A question for Elon: what's the strategy for HW3 computer installation?
Evidently, the mobile Tesla service vans can't do the upgrade. Customers will have to go to a service center. This sounds like a huge bottleneck/ problem for those that have paid for FSD.🤔
Refuse to buy any other EV than Tesla. Not settling for 2nd best
I'm with Omar regarding quantities built.
Manufacturers won't "compete" (with each other, including Tesla) while the market is expanding.
I really dont know what people see in Rivian, but then again i'm from Europe.
I think the closest competitor to Tesla is VW.
There is no "competitor" untill the potential growth of the fast expanded EV market is exceeded by the number of vehicles being produced.
Up to that point, they (should) all sell.
After that, the best survive.
But, with a note of caution.
There WILL be at least two, possibly more "aftershocks" in this long term disruption
*Somebody, WILL be the first to acquire the "next" battery.... Then the one after that...etc.
It may not be the same company every time!
*FSD.
WHEN it appears, will set an effective top limit on the number of cars that will eventually be in circulation, PLUS the number in private ownership.
"You" may prefer "T cab" or "V cab" or "M cab" for your 10¢/ mile Robotaxi journey, but by they'll all be owned and run by the original manufacturer.
@House Essentials I do see Rivian getting past the prototype but it will be a delivery van not a truck. At least until they can figure out how to bring the price down.
A question.
Elon Musk made the "100 Gigafactories" statement in early 2017.
Did he know at that time, or anticipate, that a process such as Maxwell's may reduce that requirement for factory space?
I just want to add to the last thing you brought up, that ICE manufacturers need to say "we'll go full on electric", Volvo has done that and I think they don't produce any more only ICE-cars anymore. So all their cars are hybrids or full-BEV
Many manufacturers have said they would build a great electric car, but nobody besides Tesla has done it yet. Hybrids still have an ICE, even if it’s more efficient and still tailpipe emissions. Need to go 100% EV.
@@ThirdRowTesla yes, I totally agree. I was a bit unclear, i mean that they have done that as first of 2019.
The good thing with this is to get "softer" start to develop better tech while reducing CO2 at the same time. Also that people will want more and more EVs so then they're more on the right path compared with other established manufacturers. Or am i missing something?
@@alemed01 yegads I hate this blame co2 BS, co2 ain't the problem, try sucking back sulphur dioxide, ammonia, carbon dioxide, Ozone, carbon dust etc, co2 is the least of the problems plus the heat trapping plastic waste in the oceans storing energy for storms to gain strength from causing lvl3-5 cyclones. Co2 is whipping boy for half arsed science done by people with an agenda to keep their funding going. We need to look further afeild than co2. There's a whole lot of compounding problems causing this, STOP USING C02 AS THE WHIPPING BOY.
Brett Mciver stop ignoring it! Stop your funding bullshit argument and your plastic heat fantasy. You ignore what is in front of you and look silly doing so.
When it comes to "should Tesla license out their technology to any Legacy Automobile Manufacturers?" (LAMs), The answer is "no," because it won't matter. There is no way for any LAM (at least in the United States) that will ever be able to compete with Telsa as it sits today. First, having the same tech at a higher price won't be helping matters. Second, all LAMs are locked into a unionized workforce and a pension plan payout for all their retired workers--which has lead to an extremely high overhead cost which makes it almost impossible to compete with a company that has none of those things. Third, LAMs have outsourced almost everything in their manufacturing process and would have to make a complete turnaround to become vertically integrated. Something none of them can afford to do. Fourth, LAMs have billions tied up into their old and obsolete technologies, which value they will never recover. Their only recourse today is to invest heavily into upstart EV companies, like GM is doing with Workhorce, and let the LAMs be lead to slaughter by Telsa. A.k.a. Bankruptcy. (With all the anti-EV propaganda they've been spewing all these years, they more than deserve it). That will break the unions and the pension overhead costs. What's left will be liquidated and sold off to pay their debts. They can then employ many of those unemployed autoworkers in these upstarts while accelerating the growth of these EV companies and the clean energy infrastructure based on the Tesla model instead of the Toyota model. Win, lose, win, win. If you have any stock in any LAMs today, dump it or lose it. Better to invest in any upstart EV company. They will be killing it in the stock market. Probably even faster than Tesla now that the cat's out of the bag. (And this is coming from a union guy). Lol.
You forgot to mention Ford has invested in rivian so they are doing what they can to prevent them selves from being led off to the slaughter
@@brettmciver432 I didn't forget. Ford is doing more than GM, but GM's scheme is to jump ship when the main company goes bankrupt and resurrect themselves as Lordstown Motors. Ford is working much harder at saving the main company. They're not setup to jump ship and run Rivian if things go south.
@@ibchuckd
Rivian won't allow them to be run by Ford, ford's investment is only to get the tech for the batteries and drive train of which they have no experience.
@@brettmciver432 Exactly. That's why I didn't mention Ford in my original post.
LAMS - Nice Acronym
If no Tesla, a BMW i3-REx is a nice solution. The +72 mile EV range handles most urban trips and the Range Extender easily handles cross-country trips. It also skips the excessive charges at EVgo and Electrify America. The 168 hp, rear drive, motor gives the 3,000 lb, compact a lot of scoot. The suicide doors make side and rear loading a hoot.
If Tesla reaches true FSD Lvl4+, then they will license all tech to become Windows OS and Intel of the transportation industry while exponentially expediting the world's transition to electric as legacy auto will be forced to use Tesla OS and hardware. If someone else solves FSD first, then Tesla will license their battery and powertrain. Either case scenario, Tesla wins. Biggest win if they solve FSD, but a winner nonetheless.
Yes, Tesla is in the prime position for winning whichever direction they go in.
Keep looking for a reason why I watched this whole show, celebrities talking to celebrities is fun I suppose
Yea. I was waiting to jump on here. Just quick read the description. Good guest. Looking forward to watching this now more than before!! HAHA, great intro guys!! Appreciate you all doing this for us.
You’re welcome Chad. I hope you enjoy it!
None of the businesses around today will exist in the same format tomorrow, including Tesla, who are actively making the best of what they have.
Elon has said the next phase is 2 TWh of battery production capacity. I think this is a strong indicator that they will license out their tech to other companies. Maybe FCA?
If I couldn’t buy a Tesla. I would look at the BYTON who hopefully will be released in 2020.
Oh legacy OEMs do understand that they must improve on software (UI etc) the problem is that they just can’t compete and they know it!
The problem is that they could invest and get it. But they have their hands tied as ICE doesn't really require the software.
If Tony Seba is right then 70 million cars per year manufactured globally drops to 7 million. It wouldn't take that many fully built Gigafactories to supply the world's cars if other companies aren't interested.
Taking it a bit further. A typical ICEV might be good for 200k miles. Tesla is talking about million mile cars and with stainless steel exoskeletons the body might be good for a few million miles. The number of new cars needed per year could drop into the small millions.
@@bobwallace9753 You have to look at the overall number of cars on the road and the transition to EV's first. If gasoline cars last from 7 to 20 years, then the EV Transition will be rapid at first and then trail off over the next 20 years. So talking about a drop from 70 million to 7 million will take a couple of decades to reduce to that number.
@@gerhardkutt1748 There will be a long tail but a thin one, my guess. A few people will keep driving gasmobiles because they do. There are still people who don't have a cell phone.
If you're driving a gas car your annual expenses will likely be higher than if you were using a robotaxi. Probably by a meaningful amount. When you encounter a repair bill for your ICEV you'll probably question whether to pay out several hundred dollars just to keep driving a more expensive option.
People will drive their gasmobiles to the repair shop for a brake job or to have a repair and take a robotaxi home. When they look at the comparative costs they might just go back to the shop and drive their gasmobile to the crusher.
Love the collaboration. Obviously the editing took a lot of work. 😊would you like to make the more challenging? How about using green screens and filming the guests with side profiles with variable degrees, some from the right and some from the left and edit it to look like round table discussion. (Or 3/4 of a Circle)
Thanks. Maybe eventually we’ll do something more complicated. However, right now we’re keeping it simple so we can get it out fast.
Guys, bring up this channel in Spotify too.
We are already on Spotify. Also in the description
open.spotify.com/show/7pcPJu11dEtChvuXBXbTWC?si=YI9U0KPHQf-SI72DU1bFTg
Selling it's SECRET SAUCE to the competition will not make TSLA stock holders happy and runs counter to his fiduciary responsibility to his shareholders. .
I don’t believe in Rivian, how will they scale? My personal opinion is that the time for EV startups is over. Legacy OEMs are behind OK, but people either will want a solid EV (VW soon) or the cutting-edge EV like Tesla.
M Rei Rivian made it because they have captured hearts and minds and they were Fords savior.
Rivian = Electric Range Rover.
They will make a tidy profit in that market ($70-140k) Luxury, highly capably offroader.
They will scale "as required" using Ford know-how.
"Their" volume may well come from a slightly de-featured drive/ skate system as the basis for a "Ford Bodied" Fe-150... "Powered by Rivian".
Finance generated by the guaranteed "bread and butter" income of the Amazon project.
VW?
"Solid".... Yes.
But the VW group *needs a better battery/ pack*
@@rogerstarkey5390 Only if they can get the truck out before the Cybertruck.
@@Coltn3125
They should have it out this year, especially with Ford helping with production.
Rivian has more chance of coexisting with Tesla than say, Porsche.
“Wang also told reporters the plant had achieved a production target of 1,000 units a week, or around 280 cars a day, and that sales for the China-made sedan had so far been "very good."
Viv, please do something about your audio situation
She has purchased a new lapel mic which should improve the situation
@@ThirdRowTesla awesome
Sofiaan NEEDS MORE INTERNS FOR UPLOADING!!!
Smart move for China, deciding not to compete on the ICE race but figure out and master the Electric alternative (which is projected to be the future). Their vision is evident when you consider the city buses.
53:00 many new models (ID3) already have this capability (vehicle to vehicle communication) but it’s not yet activated.
That's one, not many and it's not functioning. On top of that these cars are still not being massed produced.
You know the ID.3 Is delayed? Due to software issues?
IMO I think Elon knew this when he bacame CEO of Tesla, when GM crushed the EV1 it was a clear sign that GM wanted everyone to believe that not enough people wanted EVs , and didn’t mind that people thought the real reason was big oil, but didn’t want people to know the real reason because of low profits and them making millions off of ICE maintenance. He saw the plain and small EVs coming (the few companies that had been developing EVs) and knew if he came with a desirable, high range and good looking EV it would be enough to disrupt the whole idea of electric vehicles. The Model S did exactly that, and he also knew that legacy automakers can’t say that they want to rid the world of the need of fossil fuels because their entire development, production ,manufacturing and maintenance empire is centered around fossil fuels. It wasn’t until a few years ago that even the Prius and I3 had all electric versions , and the Bolt came years later after the Volt. He knew that if he established the blueprint for the electric lifestyle he would change everything because legacy automakers could not and would not change what has worked for them for a 100 years. At first o thought what Elon May have thought in the beginning, the old man Bob Lutz theory, that major automakers would snap their fingers and make better EVs than Tesla just like that, and that Tesla would die but would get them to make more EVs anyway. But they can’t so Tesla is dominating and is still the very definition of EVs and sustainable energy. All the companies who released EVs ten years ago(Honda, Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Renault Zoe, Toyota RAV-4, Mitsubishi , VW E-Golf, BMW I-3) never took their early advantage and took those platforms into more models until later, by then Tesla had 3 EVs on the streets worldwide. By the time legacy automakers and startups get even more vehicles out to the public Tesla will have more..
Just let me start by saying that competition is good. BUT I have no sympathy for all the companies that tried to stop the EV to keep their ICE coin purses. Tesla started up because the other companies were not doing it.
Do I care that people will loose their jobs? YES. Do I care if they go bankrupt from not going all out EV? NOPE.
As to the question of what other vehicle than a Tesla would you choose. None they are all bad or to expensive. I would stay ICE.
Ford bought Volvo and then later sold to Geely (same for Saab, but they couldn't find a buyer).
GM & Ford on downward trend for decades. VW & Toyota are now bigger
Honda has made 400 million motorcycles last 70 years and no electrics yet?
Rivian a big disappointment (10 Years and no sales??), even Bollinger out "executing" Rivian.
Self driving very integrated with the car. Can't really be sold to others.
Elon said he would consider selling FSD, but OEMs had to take as is and Tesla would not customize.
KEEP giving test rides to others and of course answer questions. One of the best things you can do.
Sean - 50 year old auto company - 1960 starting date? Only China and India and other 2nd world countries?
Brandon Fouts 🙂
Mission E, $150,000 for 200 miles? This smells like ICE "emission".
Stinks
Turbo something. . . .
Hi guys. Just an observation but the points of view are very North America focused. There are so many great EVs that are successful here in Europe like the Renault Zoe, the Leaf, the BMW i3, the Hyundai Kona, Hyundai Soul, and Kia E Nero... Whilst Tesla is still very much a leader, the likes of Renault have been the best selling EV in Europe the last few years and there is a great new line up from Renault, Peugeot, Opel/Vauxhall, and Citroen now with 50kWh batteries and over 200+ mile WLTP range at a lower cost. Also the new MG ZS EV wit 150 miles but at a bargain basement price is a serious offer here at the moment. And then there is the whole region of China and the likes of BYD, Niu and others that are not mentioned. The channel and these discussions would be even better if it inputs had representation from regions other than the US :)
Some of the shorter range EVs are great in Europe where non Tesla charging infrastructure is better and everything is closer together. North America really is a different beast.
Brett Cooper i disagree. I drive Teslas on long roadtrips. This would not be a pleasant thing to do in a non-Tesla. Whenever I’m away from a supercharger and need a fastcharger it is typically a single 50kw charger that may or may not work. I such cases I often need to spend 10-15 minutes on a hotline to get the charging started. If Tesla did not exist I would not own a pure EV at this point in time.
What car would you consider if Tesla didn't work? Answer: Polestar 2
It's sad that Toyota is chasing the hydrogen car pipe dream, and Honda's efforts EV efforts are unimpressive. I really hope someone in Japan figures out soon, otherwise Japan, Incorporated will lose out on the EV revolution, except maybe as a supplier of batteries (Panasonic) and some generic car parts. The higher amount of profit in the value chain of manufacturing EV's lies in the final assembly.
No mention of Lucid
Beside Tesla, my second choice would be Polestar 2
Jacques Gunville before i bought my model 3, i went to see the polestar 2 in Brussels ans sat in it!
It didnot convince me at all
Until now, i did not find its drag coef.
Anyone knows drag coef?
@@tuts4 Don't know the drag coef. but I'm happy for you. That is y I choose Polestar 2 as N: 2 cause it's back by Volvo.
I think Tesla is going to take over the taxi business and over the "driving" business, in general, the same way Appel took over the music business
The Main lacking feature to all the competition is their vrappy charging capabilities. Regardless of the badger they all have a shitty infrastructure in common. That's why tesla is simply alone currently. As far as I can see, I dont see any competition.
I think that licensing argument is a brilliant one. I'm not sure when Tesla would actually consider it though. I think once the Robotaxi thing is realized the entire collective automotive industry is going to have an "oh shit" moment. What happens at that point? Does Tesla try their hand at corner the industry, or do they offer to license their tech? I think at that point Tesla could make a realistic bid to corner the market, but that has concerns, like being broken up as a monopoly, on top of the fact that the rest of the automotive market would put all their resources into catching up. Whereas if Tesla licenses their tech they could effectively kill off efforts for competing tech to be developed, as the incentive would be greatly lessened. I think the real question here is how much is Tesla like Apple verse Microsoft?
Batteries improve 5-7% /year - slow and steady. Since NO THEORIES of how batteries actually work ALL improvement is by trial & error testing. [without working theories you just experiment; Edison did the same with the lightbulb]
Big ICE auto isn't capable of the innovation needed to transition away from ICE cars. Competition, dealership influence / interference, shareholder impatience and lack of capital will be the anchors that pulls many major ICE automakers to become marginal auto producers. I see many of the failing at producing EV's and will become 3rd tier auto producers in the future.
This is because they are not actual automakers. They are 3rd party parts assemblers.
Porsche made a rookie mistake. What they should have done is use software to make the cars as efficient as possible, have the EPA rate consumption based on that and then offer a $100 performance upgrade to the car after sale to move away from efficient battery to power battery. Next time.
With the way these legacy auto makers are going, it actually looks like Tesla will be doing about 80% of the work needed and most of these old fossils will be gone in 5 - 10 years.
I feel like I'm watching CNN with the octopod talking heads. Seems to me there are too many people/hosts on this podcast.
Where’s the episode with elon😤
It's in process and will be out as soon as possible.
@@ThirdRowTesla Give us an approximation👀
It’s not that easy
I know ur Working hard on it, but you’ve been promoting it a lot on twitter and it’s still not here to see to the public- keep the work going✅💪🏾
And approximately how long is it- and does elon do anything (like smoking weed) on it that might cause the stock to decrease 😂 because I’m a stock holder