I ran 3 nurgle vindicators vs my buddy's armored guard list and they were incredibly good. We both deployed on the line hoping for spicy first turns and I managed to wipe 1000 pts of leman russe's, chimeras and dorns because I got first turn
I would like to know how best to use the classic space marine Devestators against enemy vehicles, my 3 lascannons and 1 rocket launcher have been seemingly ineffective
How do you guys only have 7 subs? You got me, great vid. Keep it up. Be interesting if you added a biologis in to the equations how much that improves them
Really enjoying your channel, i fully expect it to blow up with the high quality content and theres so much you can do. Thanks for the good videos especially maling maths interesting
This is the nature of any unit with a low shot count, but potentially high damage. They're always going to be swingy. The only time you get a nice clean standard distribution curve, like you describe early on in the video, is with units that have a large quantity of shots, with small but consistent damage. This is why I run 6 man.
Blessings of the Omnissiah to the servitor crunching the numbers in the background- also Blake’s stash is giving bell curve. Can’t wait for the next ep lads!!
@cyclone8974 It really does. I'm kind of sad to see Molten Body get nerfed. I never begrudged that even as a Sisters of Battle player. It just took some lucky bolter rolls and/or some exorcist missiles.
Love the channel, exactly the kind of content I want to see for WH. Humbly requesting Eldar coverage, and that the cohost dials it back a smidge. All aboard having a hype-man, just don’t need it on every line as it takes away from the content a bit. Good luck with the vids, looking forward to seeing more
Love to see a channel like this one breaking down the probability behind the units. I’m just over a month into collecting and painting, but I’m coming from D&D where there’s tons of DPR charts and discussion from min/maxers and optimizers. It seems like rather than just embracing the meta of what is performing well right now in tournaments, there should be more discussion of what has the best average outcome against the main threats on the tabletop. Charts like this can really tell the story of how risky it is to set your weapons to hazardous or to try and risk that charge, a skill that some people have developed instincts for, but many haven’t.
I’ve been toying with the idea of creating a “cheat sheet” of sorts … but it’s hard to know exactly what would be useful to most players though rather than just going unit by unit. I want to experiment with some of this on the channel once we get a little more established and I can get some broader feedback.
Good luck with the new channel! Just seeing the math can be a little bland, but having someone read through and competently explain distribution makes understanding why my dice hate me much easier! Also as a filthy Drukhari player, I’d like to request a video on our best bird bois, the Scourge squad. There’s plenty of weapon options to chew through with them!
Just subbed! Can’t wait to see more statistics breakdowns! It would be cool to see a video on Armor of Contempt. Another cool video would be on whether you get more value out of Oath of Moment from big tank guns or tons of little infantry hits.
Squad of 6 Add a biologis and fire disciple, with the +1 ap and ignores cover strat make sure they are in devastator doctrine and profit. On average dice they can stand a good chance of nuking every vehicle or monster. Use them from rapid ingress specifically to kill something I don’t like. Also because of the full re-rolls they stand a good chance of getting a light vehicle (up to a wardog) on Overwatch
Would love to see something similar for hellblasters accounting for things like their likelihood of dying due to overcharging and maybe differences based on character buffs that can be added to the squad (offensive and/or survivability), cool channel!
I'd love to see some hellblasters math that takes into account the hazardous chance + shoots on death + potential buffs from characters and detachements! Love to see how they stack up against the performance of the eradicators (same targets)! 😊
Great video and visualisation! Just a note, Avatar of Khaine math is incorrect as damage (D6 roll) is first halved (rounding up), then increased by melta rule. I.e., damage is from [3,3,4,4,5,5] distribution.
So don’t use them against anything with an invuln… interesting Great stuff, keep up the good work! I’m always interested in this really nerdy part of a nerdy hobby lol. Would love to see stuff like a lancer or even my favorite fire strike servo turrets
You need to include the lethal hits from the Biologus and potentially the sustained 1/critical hit on 5’s from Fire Discipline to get a true scope of the top end damage eradicators are capable of. That dramatically bumps damage up combined with the re-rolls from the data sheet ability they have.
that's a really good point. these kinds of comments are *really helpful* in shaping the future of the channel. a salute to you for your service @Lomp_64 your suggestion will be taken into account for future episodes!
I super appreciate the suggestion, totally missed this possibility because I never use it as a blood angels player. I think I’m gonna have to make a shorter video addressing this for sure.
@@nickontheinternet Lots of units really jump in damage potential through effective combos with leaders, enhancements and some stratagems. That would be a cool way to show the impact by comparing the damage curve/kill probability as you add layers. Especially things like re-rolls. The actual math impact of re-rolls is interesting and when to re-roll everything but critical hits and when not to.
The Long Fangs Space Wolf unit is also full of casino cannons, but it's glorious fire support for their gnarly shock troops. They get the much more frightening options of Grav Cannons, Lascannons, Missile Launchers, Heavy Flamers, or the Multi-Melta's that Eradicators prefer. They're also notably cheaper to field 6 models, being 145 vs. 200. I've been telling people about how nasty they are for quite some time, but people just love cavalry in that chapter and won't open their ears XD
Eradicators costed for the fire discipline combo. That combo makes these guys reliable. The spread of damage would still be huge but the minimum damage levels are high enough that they are effectively reliable.
Just found the channel and love the content! What happened to the video color profile after the intro? it looks like a log profile didn't get added or Color correction didn't export...
lol, actually it was my first time doing a video like this and I had the lights turned up waaaaay too high. I tried soo hard to fix it, but that was the best I could do :) I feel like I’ve learned a lot since then already. Thank you so much for the support.
Simultaneously the scariest and least scary unit in the SM arsenal. It's like the Guard Vanquisher... A lot of the time not much happens... But every so often something goes supernova. And the thing is that people need to respect that anything at any time could go supernova!!!
Very well done distribution charts! They're the one thing I'm always too lazy to lay out and it really does show the quartiles well. You should consider doing a video on the benefits of rerolls and when to farm for dev/lethal/sustained. Very interesting results. Often it's not worth it to farm, in my findings.
Awesome analysis! Looking at how modifiers like CP re-rolls and individual hit/wound/damage re-rolls impact the spread would be a great video. There's the rules of thumb, like "attacks and damage rolls are the best return" but looking at how a you can do things like moving the lower quartiles with a hit re-roll would be really cool.
I love this idea. I want to do a video on rerolls and fishing specifically. I’m a little afraid to be too mathy in the videos but ima do some experimenting. I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this
Stand alone they are unreliable, you need to attach the biologis to get the lethal hits. Adding fire discipline gives them so much more with extra wound rolls etc. hitting on 4’s sucks on the multi melta but if you are in gladius, getting the FD to proper activate in dev doctrine and then using storm of fire, you’re criting those hits on 5’s and getting ap-5. Into invulns it’s not as great l, but 2+ save units don’t get a save.
This channel is great, can you do the deathwatch kill teams? I say teams because it can be built into several team comps, the most popular being assault, range, and both 10 man (better for leaders) and 5 man hammer (gets an extra phaseblade and pistol/shield among 2 units of 5).
Can we get an analysis of the Firestorm Assault Force strategem "immolation protocols" and the best units to utilize it. The 10 man squad of infernus vs the 5, vs ... some other flamer heavy unit🤷🏽♂️
I have been considering hellblasters for a while. The shoot on death mechanic should result in about 11% (1/6*2/3) more shots than you started with on average. I think they should be pretty reliable. Enough people have asked that I think this is on my short list.
This is really fun and informative. Keep it up! Edit: Some questions I have about the simulations you did: - Did you factor in any common buffs, like Oath of Moment? I feel like whatever you're shooting with eradicators will more often than not be your Oath-target. - How did you decide to reroll the damage? Since there is no "succesful" result, this is always the thing I struggle with. I usually reroll 1s and 2s, but what did you do?
Since they re-roll hits against monsters and vehicles I didn’t really have to worry about OOM. For the damage I was going for maximum possible output so I rerolled 1,2,3’s. This doesn’t account for those edge cases where you might hold onto a 2 or 3 on a final damage roll to reach some critical value…. But I felt it made the most sense.
Would a charging aggressor squad or las fusil eliminators be more reliable? Lower damage potential sure, but less swingy? I don’t play the game much, but this was a fun to watch!
Def more reliability with the aggressors. Fewer shots almost always results in more swings. Sure do love the eliminators though, great for some plink damage.
Great video, i was genuinely surprised that your channel is small, because the quality is great. Would like to see similar video for Morkanaut! What program do you use to simulate dice rolling?
I'm just starting out Horus Heresy with a 30K Emperor's Children army. I played constantly as a teen (former Eldar player) but have had to be an adult since. Now my son is of an age that he's into 40K. Any Slaneshi content welcome.
Loooove Slanesh. Yeah, I have quite a few friends who had to put it down and are just getting back into as their kids are aging in. It’s pretty sweet! I’m really glad you get to share it with him.
Not sure if this came up in another comment, but it's worth noting that the avatar's half damage applies before melta 2 so the bonus 2 can't be halved, not that you're expecting to get huge results in the scenario but it does add a reasonable touch of damage back
Yeah, this was my biggest error. Should result in a 33% increase in mean damage. These comments really help though so I can update my program. Thank you.
I'm surprised you didn't bring in the apothecary biologis. He definitely helps with the uncertain damage output, especially in gladius with fire discipline.
I think your point came across very well, but i think the avatar of khaine graph was incorrect, as I believe the half damage modifier was applied incorrectly ( i am assuming the damage numbers are inside melta range). I only believe this because it is impossible to deal 2 damage to the avatar (in 40k, you halve damage, then add, then round damage up, so (1dmg/2) + 2dmg, for 2.5, which rounds to 3. Ends up pushing the chance to kill him a little higher, i think it goes closer to like... 2 or 3%, and the upper limit is also 20 damage, not 16. ((6/2)+2) x 4 shots
I want to compare Noise Marines with Abaddon and hellbrute and without. Also what the difference is compared to havocs with las. Do not forget raid detachment for bonus ap.
I’ve refused to run eradicators for the past year. They’ve wiffed so many times wounding on 5s I’ve also given up on the ballistus Lancers are where it’s at
Great question. And yes exactly. Expectations value for 1 roll is 3.5. So if you reroll 1-3 then the total expectation value jumps to 4.25. I may have to build in some more logic later for edge cases.
This is an awesome video! I subscribed to your channel this is so good! I just played a game tonight where Eradicators killed my Nightbringer C'Tan shard with 8 remaining wounds in overwatch of all things. Nightbringer is T11, with 4+ invulnerable save, 5+ feel no pain, and halves damage (not the melta though). It was nuts. I would love to run the math on what happened to my Nightbringer. Is there a specific program that you use to run the simularions and produce the data?
I actually wrote the program myself. I’m still toying with it and adding capabilities. I really hope to make it into a full blown app eventually, but I’m not really a developer. Hopefully this channel will help me get there!
double damage... and doubling the location of of the quartiles would give a decent approximation. odds start to look alot better. maybe ill have to make a short?
Say whatever you want but casino guns are always fun ^^ Best for me was a sagitaur vs a blob of wardens round5 in a tournament. So sagitaur the has A2 12 -3 D6 SusD3. He rolls two sixes, and than a 5 and a 6 ^^ so 8! Hits on me. Double grudge token on me so -1 +1 on the wound he passes all 8 xD And i didn't activate the 4+++ bc there are zerkers waiting for me and math wise the sagitaur would kill one warden. So 8 saves on a 4++, i pass 7! of them xD From that point on it was just a big times fun game, i lost 7-13 but made a friend bc of silly dice luck.
Guy behind the cam is like cave man hearing of math for the first time and I love it cause it’s my reaction too
It really makes the video! Takes it from dry maths to edutainment
Dude, I want to see what the Vindicator can do! Can we do that next?
But the csm One. In the pactbound detachment 😀
Damage Range: -3 to 108
I really want to see chaos vindicator on a spread like they have, it’s such a silly unit
I ran 3 nurgle vindicators vs my buddy's armored guard list and they were incredibly good. We both deployed on the line hoping for spicy first turns and I managed to wipe 1000 pts of leman russe's, chimeras and dorns because I got first turn
This is exactly the Warhammer content i have been looking for
I would like to know how best to use the classic space marine Devestators against enemy vehicles, my 3 lascannons and 1 rocket launcher have been seemingly ineffective
Interesting. I like the idea of
How do you guys only have 7 subs? You got me, great vid. Keep it up. Be interesting if you added a biologis in to the equations how much that improves them
tell your cohost to throw back one or two less beers XD
great video
i think you just told him xD glad for the feedback @grimmlocked. you rule
I'd say give him 2 more beers
Looks like a start of an awesome new channel
Really enjoying your channel, i fully expect it to blow up with the high quality content and theres so much you can do. Thanks for the good videos especially maling maths interesting
Just discovered, and yet this may be my favorite warhammer content creator. Data like this keeps me hooked
This is the nature of any unit with a low shot count, but potentially high damage. They're always going to be swingy. The only time you get a nice clean standard distribution curve, like you describe early on in the video, is with units that have a large quantity of shots, with small but consistent damage.
This is why I run 6 man.
As a fellow math teacher, this is really rad stuff. Thanks for showing the world how fun math can be!
Awesome quality content for such a small channel :) Happy to have found ya
Thank you, we're working hard to figure some stuff out and what people would like to see.
Awesome breakdown, great presentation. Can't wait to see more.
Blessings of the Omnissiah to the servitor crunching the numbers in the background- also Blake’s stash is giving bell curve. Can’t wait for the next ep lads!!
I love a data-driven reason to swing for the fences. Great analysis - can’t wait to see more unit breakdowns!
same, feed us more content soon we are hungry!
That was great fun to watch! Waiting for more insight like this, as I love to listen about probability in games :)
I really see 40k as a game about probabilities, its one of the reasons I love it so much.
Take heart, dear co-host, the Avatar of Khaine used to be completely immune to flamers and melta back in my day. Three wounds is a *huge* improvement.
It makes sense that it would be immune to flame though.
@cyclone8974 It really does. I'm kind of sad to see Molten Body get nerfed.
I never begrudged that even as a Sisters of Battle player. It just took some lucky bolter rolls and/or some exorcist missiles.
@@Kattbirb Kinda glad the Avatar just halves damage though. I was always way to easy to kill from what I've heard.
Excellent channel concept! Looking forward to seeing more uploads from you
This is the content we need! You gotta do an episode on the C'tan shard man. That thing is a menace!
This channel concept is great and I expect you guys to go far!
NGL I thought this was Auspex Tactics from the thumbnail.
Useful and informative video though, earned a sub.
Love the channel, exactly the kind of content I want to see for WH. Humbly requesting Eldar coverage, and that the cohost dials it back a smidge. All aboard having a hype-man, just don’t need it on every line as it takes away from the content a bit.
Good luck with the vids, looking forward to seeing more
This the best production of Warhammer content on the TUBE!! I want moorrreeee❤
more's on the way!
Glad I found this channel. Keep it up guys! I was just thinking about this since I'm looking at getting some eradicators myself.
I love this video and the format. subscribed!
Very cool video! I’m really looking forward to more of these.
Love to see a channel like this one breaking down the probability behind the units. I’m just over a month into collecting and painting, but I’m coming from D&D where there’s tons of DPR charts and discussion from min/maxers and optimizers. It seems like rather than just embracing the meta of what is performing well right now in tournaments, there should be more discussion of what has the best average outcome against the main threats on the tabletop. Charts like this can really tell the story of how risky it is to set your weapons to hazardous or to try and risk that charge, a skill that some people have developed instincts for, but many haven’t.
I’ve been toying with the idea of creating a “cheat sheet” of sorts … but it’s hard to know exactly what would be useful to most players though rather than just going unit by unit. I want to experiment with some of this on the channel once we get a little more established and I can get some broader feedback.
Awesome content, great production value. Keep up the good work!
This was an eye-opener. Amazing analysis and discussion.
Good luck with the new channel! Just seeing the math can be a little bland, but having someone read through and competently explain distribution makes understanding why my dice hate me much easier! Also as a filthy Drukhari player, I’d like to request a video on our best bird bois, the Scourge squad. There’s plenty of weapon options to chew through with them!
I’ll see what I can do :)
Great energy with the two of you. Would love to see you both interacting. It would also be great to see a video of how you did those simulations.
I love hearing math teachers talk about statistics and probability.
I love Warhammer and the MathHammer involved.
This channel was made for me.
That puts a big ol smile on my face.
Very cool concept for a channel. Look forward to seeing you do other species n such
Just subbed! Can’t wait to see more statistics breakdowns! It would be cool to see a video on Armor of Contempt. Another cool video would be on whether you get more value out of Oath of Moment from big tank guns or tons of little infantry hits.
Great idea!
This was really cool to watch! More please.
sometimes youtube blesses us with gems of videos i was considering eradicators to and now imma jus get more terminators
Super useful video. Looking forward to see what else you do!
Squad of 6 Add a biologis and fire disciple, with the +1 ap and ignores cover strat make sure they are in devastator doctrine and profit. On average dice they can stand a good chance of nuking every vehicle or monster. Use them from rapid ingress specifically to kill something I don’t like. Also because of the full re-rolls they stand a good chance of getting a light vehicle (up to a wardog) on Overwatch
Would love to see something similar for hellblasters accounting for things like their likelihood of dying due to overcharging and maybe differences based on character buffs that can be added to the squad (offensive and/or survivability), cool channel!
I think this is going to have to be a video soon. Great idea.
I'd love to see some hellblasters math that takes into account the hazardous chance + shoots on death + potential buffs from characters and detachements! Love to see how they stack up against the performance of the eradicators (same targets)! 😊
Another unit I’m really curious about. I don’t have any, but I’ve been considering them for a while. Maybe it’s time to do a deep dive.
I love this video so much, great job!
Great video and visualisation!
Just a note, Avatar of Khaine math is incorrect as damage (D6 roll) is first halved (rounding up), then increased by melta rule. I.e., damage is from [3,3,4,4,5,5] distribution.
Don’t know this when I made the video. Already updated for the next one though. Thanks for the heads up. Clearly I need them.
I NEED this in excel spreadsheet format!
So don’t use them against anything with an invuln… interesting
Great stuff, keep up the good work! I’m always interested in this really nerdy part of a nerdy hobby lol. Would love to see stuff like a lancer or even my favorite fire strike servo turrets
You need to include the lethal hits from the Biologus and potentially the sustained 1/critical hit on 5’s from Fire Discipline to get a true scope of the top end damage eradicators are capable of.
That dramatically bumps damage up combined with the re-rolls from the data sheet ability they have.
I'd love to see this taken into account too. First for 6 eradicators, then with the biologis, then with fire discipline
that's a really good point. these kinds of comments are *really helpful* in shaping the future of the channel. a salute to you for your service @Lomp_64 your suggestion will be taken into account for future episodes!
I super appreciate the suggestion, totally missed this possibility because I never use it as a blood angels player. I think I’m gonna have to make a shorter video addressing this for sure.
@@nickontheinternet Lots of units really jump in damage potential through effective combos with leaders, enhancements and some stratagems.
That would be a cool way to show the impact by comparing the damage curve/kill probability as you add layers. Especially things like re-rolls. The actual math impact of re-rolls is interesting and when to re-roll everything but critical hits and when not to.
NGL, this has made me rethink my reliance on Eradicators. Too many times I’ve been let down. Thanks for an informative, fun, video.
The Long Fangs Space Wolf unit is also full of casino cannons, but it's glorious fire support for their gnarly shock troops. They get the much more frightening options of Grav Cannons, Lascannons, Missile Launchers, Heavy Flamers, or the Multi-Melta's that Eradicators prefer. They're also notably cheaper to field 6 models, being 145 vs. 200. I've been telling people about how nasty they are for quite some time, but people just love cavalry in that chapter and won't open their ears XD
As a data scientist who is into warhammer this is the content I need :3
Eradicators costed for the fire discipline combo. That combo makes these guys reliable. The spread of damage would still be huge but the minimum damage levels are high enough that they are effectively reliable.
Just found the channel and love the content! What happened to the video color profile after the intro? it looks like a log profile didn't get added or Color correction didn't export...
lol, actually it was my first time doing a video like this and I had the lights turned up waaaaay too high. I tried soo hard to fix it, but that was the best I could do :) I feel like I’ve learned a lot since then already. Thank you so much for the support.
Simultaneously the scariest and least scary unit in the SM arsenal.
It's like the Guard Vanquisher...
A lot of the time not much happens... But every so often something goes supernova. And the thing is that people need to respect that anything at any time could go supernova!!!
Very well done distribution charts! They're the one thing I'm always too lazy to lay out and it really does show the quartiles well. You should consider doing a video on the benefits of rerolls and when to farm for dev/lethal/sustained. Very interesting results. Often it's not worth it to farm, in my findings.
excellent points, thanks for the feedback @vulkangrills
I have definitely found that a lot of people go fishing when they shouldn’t. Definitely a topic I will be covering.
Awesome analysis! Looking at how modifiers like CP re-rolls and individual hit/wound/damage re-rolls impact the spread would be a great video. There's the rules of thumb, like "attacks and damage rolls are the best return" but looking at how a you can do things like moving the lower quartiles with a hit re-roll would be really cool.
I love this idea. I want to do a video on rerolls and fishing specifically. I’m a little afraid to be too mathy in the videos but ima do some experimenting. I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this
Stand alone they are unreliable, you need to attach the biologis to get the lethal hits. Adding fire discipline gives them so much more with extra wound rolls etc. hitting on 4’s sucks on the multi melta but if you are in gladius, getting the FD to proper activate in dev doctrine and then using storm of fire, you’re criting those hits on 5’s and getting ap-5. Into invulns it’s not as great l, but 2+ save units don’t get a save.
Sustained and lethal shots from a fire discipline Biologis make them reliable enough that it feels they zap pretty much anything off the board.
That shirt is amazing and you’re rocking it
This channel is great, can you do the deathwatch kill teams? I say teams because it can be built into several team comps, the most popular being assault, range, and both 10 man (better for leaders) and 5 man hammer (gets an extra phaseblade and pistol/shield among 2 units of 5).
I’ll have to look into that. Lore wise I have always been a fan of deathwatch… but I’ve literally never faced any.
Finally a channel with some science
Could you do a dark Angel hellblaster squad? If possible can you include lethal/sustained hits to that?
Comin’ up!
That was sick, please more math
great video bro, im expecting more
More to come!
Easy sub thanks guys. Please keep blasting out different unit content
Perfect content and I want more
Can we get an analysis of the Firestorm Assault Force strategem "immolation protocols" and the best units to utilize it. The 10 man squad of infernus vs the 5, vs ... some other flamer heavy unit🤷🏽♂️
Visualizing invulnerable saves like this just blew my mind. Id love to see hellblasters. I wonder how the whacky shoot on death would show up.
I have been considering hellblasters for a while. The shoot on death mechanic should result in about 11% (1/6*2/3) more shots than you started with on average. I think they should be pretty reliable. Enough people have asked that I think this is on my short list.
This is really fun and informative. Keep it up!
Edit: Some questions I have about the simulations you did:
- Did you factor in any common buffs, like Oath of Moment? I feel like whatever you're shooting with eradicators will more often than not be your Oath-target.
- How did you decide to reroll the damage? Since there is no "succesful" result, this is always the thing I struggle with. I usually reroll 1s and 2s, but what did you do?
Since they re-roll hits against monsters and vehicles I didn’t really have to worry about OOM. For the damage I was going for maximum possible output so I rerolled 1,2,3’s. This doesn’t account for those edge cases where you might hold onto a 2 or 3 on a final damage roll to reach some critical value…. But I felt it made the most sense.
shout out to the youtube recommended feed for sending me here
all hail the mighty algorithm! praise be
How does oath or other reroll mechanics affect the swingyness of a unit? I assume it makes less swingy but how much?
I’m definitely doing a vid on rerolls and fishing at some point!
wait is this why my opponents terminators are so much more vulnerable to my havoc autocannons then my raptor metalguns?
Would a charging aggressor squad or las fusil eliminators be more reliable? Lower damage potential sure, but less swingy? I don’t play the game much, but this was a fun to watch!
Def more reliability with the aggressors. Fewer shots almost always results in more swings. Sure do love the eliminators though, great for some plink damage.
Great video, i was genuinely surprised that your channel is small, because the quality is great. Would like to see similar video for Morkanaut!
What program do you use to simulate dice rolling?
I’ve been writing my own program. Still a work in progress. Ork will get a video in short order.
I'm just starting out Horus Heresy with a 30K Emperor's Children army. I played constantly as a teen (former Eldar player) but have had to be an adult since. Now my son is of an age that he's into 40K. Any Slaneshi content welcome.
Loooove Slanesh. Yeah, I have quite a few friends who had to put it down and are just getting back into as their kids are aging in. It’s pretty sweet! I’m really glad you get to share it with him.
Good content please make more
on the way!
Not sure if this came up in another comment, but it's worth noting that the avatar's half damage applies before melta 2 so the bonus 2 can't be halved, not that you're expecting to get huge results in the scenario but it does add a reasonable touch of damage back
Yeah, this was my biggest error. Should result in a 33% increase in mean damage. These comments really help though so I can update my program. Thank you.
@@warphammer-math happy to help with rules interactions, loving the mathhammer, keep up the good work!
I'm surprised you didn't bring in the apothecary biologis. He definitely helps with the uncertain damage output, especially in gladius with fire discipline.
Yeah… mistakes were made, that’s why I need you guys to help me out!
Should do the sunforge suits with and without commanders, very similar unit
I think your point came across very well, but i think the avatar of khaine graph was incorrect, as I believe the half damage modifier was applied incorrectly ( i am assuming the damage numbers are inside melta range). I only believe this because it is impossible to deal 2 damage to the avatar (in 40k, you halve damage, then add, then round damage up, so (1dmg/2) + 2dmg, for 2.5, which rounds to 3. Ends up pushing the chance to kill him a little higher, i think it goes closer to like... 2 or 3%, and the upper limit is also 20 damage, not 16. ((6/2)+2) x 4 shots
I honestly didn’t know about this interaction till after this video. I bet this won’t be the only time. Thank you for pointing this out.
This is awesome!
Half the damage is only the D6 portion, not the melta 2 part.
Hmmm, I hadn’t considered this. Thank you.
@@warphammer-math Its unintuitive, an easy miss.
Its because of the order in which you apply modifiers, multiplicative modifiers first then additive. So the damage is halved then add 2
I want to compare Noise Marines with Abaddon and hellbrute and without. Also what the difference is compared to havocs with las. Do not forget raid detachment for bonus ap.
And people keep being surprised when my LR survives against a full unit of eradicators with smoke and AoC
You would think a math teacher wouldn’t need a simulation to figure those results out. ;)
Video idea:
Probability for each key space marine unit to take down a knight :D
Rad!
@@warphammer-math
another funny one would be:
Probability of key Astra Militarum units killing a custodes….
I’ve refused to run eradicators for the past year. They’ve wiffed so many times wounding on 5s
I’ve also given up on the ballistus
Lancers are where it’s at
Le sigh… i hear that
Roll back the cohost by 10% and you got a hit. this is real good
Now do 6 with biologis! lethals...
A near 300 pt combo BETTER wreck shit
Given that they can re-roll damage and it isnt pass/fail, how did you factor that into your simulations? Did you re-roll 1-3, just 1s etc?
Great question. And yes exactly. Expectations value for 1 roll is 3.5. So if you reroll 1-3 then the total expectation value jumps to 4.25. I may have to build in some more logic later for edge cases.
Melta bonus dmg does not get halved by Avatar, because it is added after the Avatars ability.
Ugh… totally didn’t realize this until I saw the comments. Thanks for looking out. I’ll have to fix that for future episodes
Maybe an episode about which unit best destroys space marines? Asking for the aliens from Starship Troopers…
lmao
This is an awesome video! I subscribed to your channel this is so good! I just played a game tonight where Eradicators killed my Nightbringer C'Tan shard with 8 remaining wounds in overwatch of all things. Nightbringer is T11, with 4+ invulnerable save, 5+ feel no pain, and halves damage (not the melta though). It was nuts.
I would love to run the math on what happened to my Nightbringer. Is there a specific program that you use to run the simularions and produce the data?
I actually wrote the program myself. I’m still toying with it and adding capabilities. I really hope to make it into a full blown app eventually, but I’m not really a developer. Hopefully this channel will help me get there!
So we learned what we already knew. You need 6 models with 4 Meltaguns and 2 multimeltas.
3 are still pretty great for softening up targets!
I run full man plus incurred prior. Deletes any vehicle or 5 man. Minus inv
20% of the times it happens all the times
ive been looking at getting them but i've been postponing it because as cool as they seem i'm pretty unlucky, thanks for the succinct video.
lol, I know the feeling.
tell your cohost to turn down the gain and turn on noise suppression
How does the numbers change if you run it as a six man?
double damage... and doubling the location of of the quartiles would give a decent approximation. odds start to look alot better. maybe ill have to make a short?
@@warphammer-math do it! thats a great question to run with @nitrous146
Enjoyed that.
Say whatever you want but casino guns are always fun ^^ Best for me was a sagitaur vs a blob of wardens round5 in a tournament.
So sagitaur the has A2 12 -3 D6 SusD3. He rolls two sixes, and than a 5 and a 6 ^^ so 8! Hits on me. Double grudge token on me so -1 +1 on the wound he passes all 8 xD
And i didn't activate the 4+++ bc there are zerkers waiting for me and math wise the sagitaur would kill one warden. So 8 saves on a 4++, i pass 7! of them xD
From that point on it was just a big times fun game, i lost 7-13 but made a friend bc of silly dice luck.
Don’t get me wrong. I love swingy units. I’m personally more interested in having a good time than I am in having an optimized list.
That’s the best, you got a good attitude and making friends over silly dice luck is wayyy better than winning a game!
More videos. Now. Keep this going!
Got 2 more in the works!
Love this
Id like to see multimelta devastators with the cherub.
I love this idea. Worth a look, they will be far less efficient without those re-rolls though. That said…. I like running first born wherever I can.
@warphammer-math I run a squad in FAF with an Apothecary, Champion of Humanity and in a Razorback. Specifically to delete ctan and Avatars