As someone who gave Emilia Perez a 3/5 and thinks it’s okay, I think you’re underestimating the love the industry has for Emilia Perez, Ryan. It won 2 prizes at Cannes, swept the European Film Awards, 10 Golden Globe and CCA nominations-I have Perez getting 12 nominations. Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, two supporting Actresses, Film Editing, Score, Sound, 2 Songs, and Hair & Makeup. And if Bafta goes for it, I can see it pop surprisingly into Cinematography (it did win the Bronze Frog at this year’s Cameriage awards, and the cinematographers branch has gone towards more European and bold choices like Tar, Cold War, Bardo, and such). Netflix are masterful campaigners when it comes to maxing out nominations. 10 noms for Roma (including one of the most surprising acting nominations ever for de Tavira), 10 noms for Irishman, 10 noms for Mank, 12 noms for Power of the Dog (including ones that seemed unlikely like Film Editing, Production Design, Sound, and a second supporting actor nom), 9 noms for All Quiet, and even surprising with their lower contenders like Maestro, Nyad, Blonde, and Lost Daughter. Perez fits nicely into their lineup of a film over performing with nominations (I even believe they’re gonna go for Selena, as much as we don’t like it, because she’s part of the overall package for the film). I think for all the reasons you and I can come up with as why we don’t like it or why it doesn’t work, are reasons why it’s beloved by the industry, specifically actors and the international block. It’s a total “vibes” movie where you either click with it or not. And even if Audiard misses DGA (which he likely will) he can still get in because of the EFA stat, where its previous winners repeated at the Oscars. I feel for its low audience and critics scores just show the divide that previous divisive films have been embraced by the Academy like a Vice or Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book. It’s just their flavor of movie.
As we have seen with LA LA LAND and THE POWER OF THE DOG, frontrunner/overexposure backlash can build, especially when it overperforms on nominations (THE POWER OF THE DOG got 12 nominations and ultimately only won Director and nothing else). I am still not convinced EMILIA PEREZ is winning 3 Oscars (International Feature, Song, and Supporting Actress).
FYI Ryan: The 5% #1 rule only applied when there was a flexible number between 5 and 10 Best Picture nominees (voters filled in only 5 nominees during that time and those that had 5% #1 votes or more made the lineup, which explains why EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE among others made the lineup during that time). They returned to a fixed 10 starting with the CODA year, meaning voters will fill 10 slots in the nominee voting stage, so you don't need as many #1's this time around.
Thank you so much for reminding me. I’ve been confused on how this method of voting works for BP nominations. Is it simply what ever 10 films had the most first place votes? Most mentions anywhere on the ballot? I feel like doing a deep dive to figure it out and make a video about it.
The Best Actress run is so crazy that it's perfectly reasonable considering Erivo as the 5th slot just as Jolie or even Moore. Even though, Baptiste could perfectly fit the final list and it would be beautiful Torres also sneaking into it ♥
@@Themoomabides yeah. I get what OE is saying but those stats don't mean anything when it comes to Denzel. He still got In for MacBeth when that underperformed everywhere else.
It’s possible Erivo wins SAG. I understand the hesitation. I see Madison as a package deal with Anora winning Picture and Screenplay. If one were to believe Anora can’t win, then I can see Madison also being shaky.
It's kinda sad for me that Dune 2 loses the buzz it had earlier this year during this awards season. We taken for granted, the insanity that Dennis Villeneuve had to pull out to bring Dune 2 to life such immaculately. It wasn't nominated for Acting Assemble on CCA, and it seems that Dennis doesn't have that much of a buzz anymore for Best Director. It would probably be like 2022 again, where it swept all the technical award.
Last year's Best Actress race was a wild ride. Arguably, this year is bonkers as well. I'm not convinced that Anora's Mikey Madison is the frontrunner. Then again, Stone won with a hyper-sexualized role last year. Erivo just might get Barbied. I'm rooting for Moore - just for a nom. She and Gascon are the dark horses. I'm kind of sick of Kidman's penchant for playing the same ol' "rich lady goes to the edge" role.
Here is the problem: who is winning if not Mikey Madison? You need to have a strong alternate in some way shape or form, be it through a compelling narrative OR appearing in a strong Best Picture contender. Last year, Lily Gladstone was the favorite, but Emma Stone won largely thanks to appearing in a stronger Best Picture contender (POOR THINGS had 11 nominations to KOTFM's 10). Mikey is kind of the Emma Stone this time in terms of strong Best Picture contender and similarly edgy vibe that POOR THINGS had. For Mikey to lose, you need a strong alternative to counter that. Whether you want to admit it or not, wins are based on the "path of least resistance", and the only alternatives that stand a chance IMO are Cynthia Erivo and Demi Moore, and both of them need their movies to massively overperform to stand a chance.
Seems like people either love or hate The Substance, I’m somewhere in the middle. Found a lot to like about it (the performances, directing, etc.), just had a couple issues (too long, for one). The nominations it’s aiming for are pretty deserved
I have a hunch that Demi will win at Oscar irrespective of how it goes in other awards.. though i haven't seen it it does check few boxes like known actress long overdue... Showy performance.. body transformation... Can you imagine how interesting that win will be. Micky seems more like lily Gladstone.. heart of the movie but maybe not showy enough
Madison is wayyyy more showy than Demi lol (and in the entire film). Shes also very sympathetic. Also it’s more palatable. Shes not Lily she’s more like Jennifer in Silver Lining. Overdue actresses don’t win that often lol. Shes not even overdue for a “win”. That’s an online narrative by pundits not industry (she has no Oscar nom and doesn’t have the filmography that warrants one).
She won’t win. Academy will not award for that type of movie. Love Demi and that movie but look what happened to Toni Collete with hereditary… they don’t honor horror at all smh
If it weren’t for the body horror aspect she could win. The Academy respects psychological thrillers…but nominations day will tell us how much they respect body horror
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 20.12): *Best Picture:* 34. The Life of Chuck 33. Joker: Folie à Deux 32. Evil Does Not Exist 31. Hard Truths 30. Maria 29. The Wild Robot 28. Dìdi 27. Queer 26. Nosferatu 25. We Live in Time 24. A Different Man 23. Juror No. 2 22. The Piano Lesson 21. Gladiator II 20. Saturday Night 19. All We Imagine as Light 18. The Room Next Door 17. Blitz 16. I'm Still Here 15. Challengers 14. September 5 13. The Apprentice 12. A Real Pain 11. A Complete Unknown --------------------------------------------------------- 10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig 9. Nickel Boys 8. Sing Sing 7. The Substance 6. Conclave 5. The Brutalist 4. Dune: Part Two 3. Wicked 2. Emilia Pérez 1. Anora (current predicted winner) *Best Lead Actress:* 26. Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey into Night) 25. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) 24. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) 23. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) 22. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) 21. Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu) 20. Sohelia Golestani (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 19. Tilda Swinton (The End) 18. Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness) 17. Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside) 16. June Squibb (Thelma) 15. Florence Pugh (We Live in Time) 14. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) 13. Zendaya (Challengers) 12. Amy Adams (Nightbitch) 11. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) 10. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) 9. Kate Winslet (Lee) 8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) 7. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) 6. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) 4. Angelina Jolie (Maria) 3. Demi Moore (The Substance) 2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) 1. Mikey Madison (Anora) (current predicted winner) *Best Lead Actor:* 27. Tom Hiddlestone (The Life of Chuck) 26. Paul Bettany (The Collaboration) 25. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) 24. Timothée Chalamet (Dune: Part Two) 23. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man) 22. Misagh Zare (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 21. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie à Deux) 20. Keith Kupferer (Ghostlight) 19. Ethan Herrise (Nickel Boys) 18. Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness) 17. Jharrel Jerome (Unstoppable) 16. Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love) 15. Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time) 14. Cillian Murphy (Small Things Like These) 13. Glen Powell (Hit Man) 12. Nicholas Hoult (Juror No. 2) 11. Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) 10. Hugh Grant (Heretic) 9. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) 8. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II) 7. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) 6. Daniel Craig (Queer) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) 4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) 3. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) 2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) (current predicted winner) 1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) *Best Supporting Actress:* 27. Karen Gillan (The Life of Chuck) 26. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) 25. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) 24. Zendaya (Dune: Part Two) 23. Michelle Austin (Hard Truths) 22. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two) 21. Rachel Sennott (Saturday Night) 20. Jennifer Lopez (Unstoppable) 19. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) 18. Lesley Manville (Queer) 17. Fernanda Montenegro (I'm Still Here) 16. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) 15. Joan Chen (Dìdi) 14. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2) 13. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) 12. Leonie Benesch (September 5) 11. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) 10. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) 9. Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice) 8. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) 7. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 6. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) 4. Margaret Qualley (The Substance) 3. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) 2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) 1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) (current predicted winner) *Best Supporting Actor:* 26. Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck) 25. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration) 24. Harris Dickinson (Blitz) 23. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two) 22. John Lithgow (Conclave) 21. Dennis Quaid (The Substance) 20. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) 19. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2) 18. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two) 17. Josh O'Connor (Challengers) 16. Drew Starkey (Queer) 15. Adam Pearson (A Different Man) 14. Harris Dickinson (Babygirl) 13. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked) 12. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) 11. John Magaro (September 5) 10. Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside) 9. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5) 8. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) 7. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 6. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) 4. Yura Borisov (Anora) 3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 2. Gy Pearce (The Brutalist) 1. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain) (current predicted winner) *Best Director:* 27. Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck) 26. Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux) 25. Pablo Larraín (Maria) 24. Luca Guadagnino (Queer) 23. Clint Eastwood (Juror No. 2) 22. Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) 21. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) 20. Jason Reitman (Saturday Night) 19. Ridley Scott (Gladiator II) 18. Walter Salles (I'm Still Here) 17. Luca Guadagnino (Challengers) 16. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) 15. Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice) 14. Steve McQueen (Blitz) 13. Tim Fehlbaum (September 5) 12. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) 11. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) 10. Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) 9. Jon M. Chu (Wicked) 8. RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) 7. Jacques Audillard (Emilia Pérez) 6. Edward Berger (Conclave) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) 4. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 3. Dennis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two) 2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) 1. Sean Baker (Anora) (current predicted winner) P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
Just watched Anora last night. I thought it was good, but is that really the kind of story that wins Best Picture? Stripper meets immature spoiled rich kid, they get married, parents get pissed, spoiled rich kid takes off, they spend 30 mins looking for him, spoiled rich kid dumps stripper, THE END. It feels like Licorice Pizza/Once Upon A Time In Hollywood combined. I'd even be disappointed if it won Original Screenplay, what's so original about it? Pretty weak year if it wins Best Picture. I had it at #1 sight unseen because of the hype surrounding it, but now I have Conclave & Wicked ahead of it. I still need to see The Brutalist of the top ranked movies. Right now I'd have Best Picture between Conclave & Wicked they are the most widely appealing and will receive a lot of Top 3 place votes. I don't see many older academy voters ranking Anora high on their ballot.
As they say at the start of the video, there’s an awful lot of Oscar predictors on UA-cam now. It’s got to be kind of intolerable to follow this stuff closely, but also have to put up with waiting for the late January release dates of some of the films. Anora’s supposed strength as an awards film is understandable because of its Palme D’Or, but it’s exactly the film you describe in your comment. What is good about its story at all?
Finally I find this comment.. yes I also already watched Anora and for me personally this movie is not that masterpiece (critics as usual over exaggerated things) the best thing about this movie is mikey madison and others seems overshadowed by her performance.. Im fine if this movie got into best picture, director and screenplay but to sweep major categories I will completely disagree with it even seeing Yura as Supporting actor nominee kind of weird to me. he wasnt doing something extraordinary (he still good btw) in this movie but everyone praise his performance
Thank you, Thank you, Thank you, I also watched Anora last night and it was okay, really, I expected way more since people were gassing it to the moon, Mikey was great top 3 actress for me along with Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo, but the movie is defo not winning best picture.
1. Brady Corbet 2.Sean Baker 3. RaMell Ross 4. Coralie Fargeat 5. Mohammad Rasoulof I think Emilia Perez will get in everywhere else and shockingly get snubbed by the Directors for Rasoulof
Jesse Eisenberg is an actor, writer and producer for A Real Pain. He is strong to get in for screenplay. I don't think he's enough of a big name to get a 2nd nod for Picture.
Saldana at number 2, and putting that... that ... "thing" at number 1? Really???????????????????!!!! That is def not happening, zoe is winning, wake up ppl!!!!!!!
@@elijah0208 “that thing” is currently the frontrunner with 8 precursor wins, followed by Qualley (4), Saldana (3), Deadwyler (3), so yes this is definitely happening and rightfully so.
@@miir01 what is definitely happening for that thing is winning the award for most plastic unnatural face! The second award would probably be for unhealthy promotion of toxic fake beauty standards!
The thing about Erivo is, even though she is the heart of that film, she’s still just playing something akin to a Disney Princess. People are getting carried away with Wicked and have bought into the hype too much, especially with Grande who I guess will get nominated but is unlikely to win on the night. I mean, if they didn’t give it to Lady Gaga for ASIB, why would they hand an Oscar to Grande for her one-note performance of a kind of confused character? And both of these performers have only given HALF of a performance. People need to simmer down about Wicked. It’s got a long way to go still to achieve Barbie level global box office. I don’t think the Academy is ever going to be moved to laud it with actual awards.
I'd say based on the Lead Actress performances I've seen I'd nominate in alphabetical order Gascon, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie & Madison. Still have to see Babygirl & I'm Still Here to make a final decision on the 5th slot but as of now I'd go with Demi Moore over Cynthia Erivo.
Wicked is being underestimated here. Cynthia is already a 2-time nominee for a movie they could have easily ignored, they’re not gonna ignore her singing Defying Gravity in the biggest musical in decades. She’s locked. And mark my words, Wicked is the front runner for Best Picture. It’s the feel good movie of the moment with widest appeal to all branches.
I agree with you.. It will pissed everyone if Ariana and cynthia win best acting categories because clearly they have a momentum right now.. but you know academy member wouldnt let that happen
@@derrickdiazoni9571 wicked isn't the front runner. You need to have some international support to win that and Wicked, judging by its box office, is a much bigger deal in America than internationally. I doubt it'll get in the top 5 at BAFTA.
I just don't see the substance happening. Maybe if it overperforms at BAFTA, I can finally believe in it. But right now, I think it is like 12th in the best picture race.
I have Maclin over Borisov. Maclin is much more likely to get SAG and Borisov feels like a critics thing that won't translate to the Oscars like Charles Melton last season
No, Anora is not May December because there is no way for Anora to out the same way that happened with May December. That's why people are predicting Borisov, why he is part of the possible winning film and that he is the perfect complement to Madison.
Perhaps it's just wishful thinking, but I predict Demi will win Best Actress. It seems improbable they'll award it to an actress with only one acclaimed performance. When Brie Larson won, she had already delivered a revelatory performance in Short Term 12 the previous year, which should have earned her a nomination in my opinion. Similarly, when Jennifer Lawrence won, she had Winter's Bone under her belt. It could happen, but I remain skeptical about Mikey Madison winning. Demi has a compelling narrative, and I believe people will feel good about voting for her. I sense she has more passion behind her than Madison. I anticipate her winning streak will commence at the Globes. I might be wrong, but I hope I'm not.
I think there is a real possibility this happens. I feel more confident she can win the Globe tho, but struggle seeing her win the Oscar. But I do see your point with the Larson and Lawrence mentions. Cheers!
i LOVE audiard, really wanted to like EP and HATE siding with film twitter on anything, but man....what a terrible film. if it wins, it will absolutely be the "crash" of our generation.
Idk maybe I’m the outlier on this one, I don’t think yura burisov performance is better than Stanley Tucci or Jeremy Strong.. Burisov gave a great impact at the last 10 min of the movie but Tucci and Strong give a more powerful and enggaging performance throughout their movie (Especially Jeremy Strong) It just my amateur opinion.. Note: If Anora is not the movie of the year, Yura will never get a nomination for that performance
I think it's going to be Adrian Brody. However, it would be ironic if he won because he would be the youngest Best Actor winner beating former youngest actor to win the Oscar, Adrian Brody.
It is either Brody or Fiennes. Fiennes's closest parallel is Gary Oldman actually in terms of age range, level of respect he has publicly, and massive overdue sentiment. Fiennes has had such incredible bad luck when it comes to awards, where his movies are healthily recognized but never him. In fact, when you take an actor's filmography and count the total combined number of Oscars won across all categories, Fiennes has the most Oscar-winning filmography of all time (his films have won a combined 36 Oscars to date).
Not fair - Cynthia is not just "flying on a broom" Shges strong & vulnerable & riveting. You both missed Nicole Kidman. Jolie & Demi will be out. Hugh Grant not a chance.
I'm not sure if it's the same phrase that Tom O'Neil uses to describe this tendency to snub young attractive guys but I've seen it being named "slap the stud"
Best Picture: 1. Anora 2. The Brutalist 3. Conclave 4. Dune: Part Two 5. Emilia Pérez 6. Nickel Boys 7. A Real Pain 8. Sing Sing 9. The Substance 10. Wicked Best Director: 1. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) 2. Sean Baker (Anora) 3. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) 4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) 5. RaMell Moss (Nickel Boys) Best Leading Actor: 1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) 2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) 3. Daniel Craig (Queer) 4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) 5. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) Best Leading Actress: 1. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) 2. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) 3. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) 4. Demi Moore (The Substance) 5. Mikey Madison (Anora) Best Supporting Actor: 1. Yura Borisov (Anora) 2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) 4. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) 5. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) Best Supporting Actress: 1. Ariana Grande (Wicked) 2. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) 3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 4. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) 5. Aunjanie Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
I might be crazy for saying this, but genuinely Saoirse Ronan could crash the Best Actress race if she gets BAFTA or SAG. I know some people say Marianne Jean-Baptiste will do incredibly well at BAFTA, which she'll definitely get nominated, but what if Saoirse Ronan happened to do incredibly well. Angelina Jolie, Cynthia Ervio, and Karla Sofia Gascon all gave performances that feel like they could miss. All are great performances no doubt, but what if Fernanda Torres, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, and either Saoirse Ronan (who the Academy LOVES) or Nicole Kidman made it in, along with Mikey Madison and Demi Moore.
The race to the Oscars is long and critics don't have much weight. Last year, Margot Robbie and Natalie Portman fell before the Oscars. 2023 Viola Davis 2022 Lady Gaga In the end, Moore or Gascon could fall.
It is amazing how you can bounce out Baptist and Erivo. You guys are confirming what has been happening for decades. You never see enough films with Black. And yes I am saying it. You need to actually watch the movies and then make your predictions. I have seen the movies and the hype that people are giving Angelina Jolie is not worth it. Maybe because I was a young adult during that time and I actually remember when Maria was having the affair with Ari Onassis while he was married to Jackie. As for carrying a movie without Best Picture nominations. Sophie's Choice only had one actor nomination. Meryl Streep. And no director nomination either.
@@raj2tennis I watched both Wicked and Hard Truths. I reviewed them on the channel. My predictions would be wildly different if choosing my favorites and Baptist would be if picking my favorites. Cheers
hell yeah! for 2 years in a row, my favorite films of the year are probably gonna get shafted by the oscars!! spiderverse, past lives, and barbie won a collective single *song* oscar, and saturday night and a real pain are gonna miss picture (fingers crossed for a kieran culkin win)
I have a lot of the same predictions. Picture: Anora Director: Brady Corbet Actor: Adrien Brody Actress: Mikey Madison Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana Original Screenplay: Anora Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
Anora? What a terrible year for Oscars. Not passionate about anything yet. Nightbitch and blitz were my personal favorites but they are going nowhere. Hopefully I will like wicked.
I think that Karla could miss in best actress and Marianne B could get in for Hard truths and I think that Angelina Jolie was absolutely fantastic in Maria and I think that she is going to win best actress at the Golden globes
It’s possible. Golden Globes’ love really screwed with my head. I’m reeling back on Substance more and more. If Fargeat is snubbed at BAFTA and Moore is snubbed at SAG and BAFTA, then I’ll have no problem pulling them out.
Like most, you're Both 'hope dicting ' Sing Sing!!! Also, collaborator is Waaaay off with research When it comes to Globes. There's not enough data to live by as the new group is just 2 years old. REMEMBER For director, they're odd. Heck, you could see Almodovar get in. First film in the English language, not so great but the branch LOOOOVES HIM Brutalist director - Great job But (and not my pick) Conclave Film. NOBODY DOESN'T LIKE THIS FILM. Older people in the Oscar pool.
To ignore Nicole Kidman and baptise is so wrong Even baptise winning most of the regional critics award does not allow her to be in the top 5 of your predictions What a joke
I have strong opinions about Emilia Perez that are not very flattering. It’s a movie from a French director about a Latin American reality that he doesn’t seem very familiar with, and I feel that it perpetuates stigmas about the Mexican society. None of the leads are Mexican and do not speak Spanish with a Mexican accent. The musical elements seem abrupt and not fully developed. All the songs are forgettable, because most of them aren’t really songs, just sung dialogues that seem odd most of the time, and none of them sticks with the audience after the film finishes. I think these musical elements don’t help the narrative at all, on the contrary. It would be a much stronger film if it were a simple thriller, because the story is good but the music is more of a distraction than anything else. In the end, it just feels like a movie about an “exotic” world made by Europeans for the European and American gaze, not fully committed on being truthful or authentic.
A Complete Unknown is definitely NOT in ninth place, it's at best top five based on past history with biopics and based on where it's shown up. You guys are really underestimating this film. 👎
So funny and unprofessional to say that becos of narrative, she is getting in The short listed list Oscar also show that the substance is not favourite among the academy voters
I'm sorry to tell you that if Fernanda doesn't get the BAFTA nomination, there will be no way for it to happen, Because if she only has that Globe nomination then it's not a good excuse to get in and it would just feel like "something the Globes would do"
.@@LDavDT33. Okay, Bafta would be important but, Fernanda Torres was nominated for the SATELLITTE also. It counts. And, let's not forget that OSCAR'S LINEUP is not a mirror of BAFTA'S and SAG'S. In fact, it's pretty much a mirroŕ of the Globes'.
Wicked above Dune Part 2 lmaoooo this is the first video of yours I’ve seen, and your opinion just got invalidated so fast😂🤣🤣🤣🤣 Thats hilarious. You made my day.
According to all the precursors, and stats hes very accurate in that assessment, y'all just take everything like a personal attack, when for predicting purposes it' all about numbers and history not personal preference.
I'm sorry to tell you that's true. Dune doesn't have as many chances as its first part since the awards are treating it like Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers (in the sense that they are ignoring it for "being more of the same as the first part" and that it is a second part), And well Wicked makes more sense because it came out so late and it caused a lot of noise throughout the season, and it has already been doing phenomenally well at several awards.
She's an actress (hint: "Karla") who had gender confirmation surgery 6 years ago, and has said she felt like she was a girl since she was 4 years old. If someone genuinely says and believes they're a woman, and completely acts like one, and most of society is mature enough to accept this with grace and compassion, then it doesn't matter what some overweight American weirdos think.
brother bro is looking a bit different in this video
Dream lineup for director:
Coralie Fargeat
Denis Villeneuve
Sean Baker
Brady Corbet
RaMell Ross
100000000% This would be ideal.
Nice collab!
As someone who gave Emilia Perez a 3/5 and thinks it’s okay, I think you’re underestimating the love the industry has for Emilia Perez, Ryan. It won 2 prizes at Cannes, swept the European Film Awards, 10 Golden Globe and CCA nominations-I have Perez getting 12 nominations. Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, two supporting Actresses, Film Editing, Score, Sound, 2 Songs, and Hair & Makeup. And if Bafta goes for it, I can see it pop surprisingly into Cinematography (it did win the Bronze Frog at this year’s Cameriage awards, and the cinematographers branch has gone towards more European and bold choices like Tar, Cold War, Bardo, and such).
Netflix are masterful campaigners when it comes to maxing out nominations. 10 noms for Roma (including one of the most surprising acting nominations ever for de Tavira), 10 noms for Irishman, 10 noms for Mank, 12 noms for Power of the Dog (including ones that seemed unlikely like Film Editing, Production Design, Sound, and a second supporting actor nom), 9 noms for All Quiet, and even surprising with their lower contenders like Maestro, Nyad, Blonde, and Lost Daughter. Perez fits nicely into their lineup of a film over performing with nominations (I even believe they’re gonna go for Selena, as much as we don’t like it, because she’s part of the overall package for the film).
I think for all the reasons you and I can come up with as why we don’t like it or why it doesn’t work, are reasons why it’s beloved by the industry, specifically actors and the international block. It’s a total “vibes” movie where you either click with it or not. And even if Audiard misses DGA (which he likely will) he can still get in because of the EFA stat, where its previous winners repeated at the Oscars. I feel for its low audience and critics scores just show the divide that previous divisive films have been embraced by the Academy like a Vice or Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book. It’s just their flavor of movie.
As we have seen with LA LA LAND and THE POWER OF THE DOG, frontrunner/overexposure backlash can build, especially when it overperforms on nominations (THE POWER OF THE DOG got 12 nominations and ultimately only won Director and nothing else). I am still not convinced EMILIA PEREZ is winning 3 Oscars (International Feature, Song, and Supporting Actress).
Awesome conversation! Thank you!
Thanks!!! I’ve been dying to get Oscar Expert on the channel! Thanks for watching. 🙃
Nice Denzel edit.
FYI Ryan: The 5% #1 rule only applied when there was a flexible number between 5 and 10 Best Picture nominees (voters filled in only 5 nominees during that time and those that had 5% #1 votes or more made the lineup, which explains why EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE among others made the lineup during that time). They returned to a fixed 10 starting with the CODA year, meaning voters will fill 10 slots in the nominee voting stage, so you don't need as many #1's this time around.
Thank you so much for reminding me. I’ve been confused on how this method of voting works for BP nominations. Is it simply what ever 10 films had the most first place votes? Most mentions anywhere on the ballot? I feel like doing a deep dive to figure it out and make a video about it.
Banger collab… Banger video
The Best Actress run is so crazy that it's perfectly reasonable considering Erivo as the 5th slot just as Jolie or even Moore. Even though, Baptiste could perfectly fit the final list and it would be beautiful Torres also sneaking into it ♥
Denzel has 9 acting nominations. 8 were for pictures NOT nominated for best picture. 4 times he was the sole nomination for the film.
@@Themoomabides yeah. I get what OE is saying but those stats don't mean anything when it comes to Denzel. He still got In for MacBeth when that underperformed everywhere else.
I’m not convinced Mikey Madison is the front runner until we see who wins SAG and BAFTA…
It’s possible Erivo wins SAG. I understand the hesitation. I see Madison as a package deal with Anora winning Picture and Screenplay. If one were to believe Anora can’t win, then I can see Madison also being shaky.
Great video!
It's kinda sad for me that Dune 2 loses the buzz it had earlier this year during this awards season. We taken for granted, the insanity that Dennis Villeneuve had to pull out to bring Dune 2 to life such immaculately. It wasn't nominated for Acting Assemble on CCA, and it seems that Dennis doesn't have that much of a buzz anymore for Best Director. It would probably be like 2022 again, where it swept all the technical award.
Great collaboration and video! I hope you guys do it again when the Oscar nominations are announced.
Last year's Best Actress race was a wild ride. Arguably, this year is bonkers as well.
I'm not convinced that Anora's Mikey Madison is the frontrunner. Then again, Stone won with a hyper-sexualized role last year. Erivo just might get Barbied. I'm rooting for Moore - just for a nom. She and Gascon are the dark horses. I'm kind of sick of Kidman's penchant for playing the same ol' "rich lady goes to the edge" role.
So true. I agree
Here is the problem: who is winning if not Mikey Madison? You need to have a strong alternate in some way shape or form, be it through a compelling narrative OR appearing in a strong Best Picture contender. Last year, Lily Gladstone was the favorite, but Emma Stone won largely thanks to appearing in a stronger Best Picture contender (POOR THINGS had 11 nominations to KOTFM's 10). Mikey is kind of the Emma Stone this time in terms of strong Best Picture contender and similarly edgy vibe that POOR THINGS had. For Mikey to lose, you need a strong alternative to counter that. Whether you want to admit it or not, wins are based on the "path of least resistance", and the only alternatives that stand a chance IMO are Cynthia Erivo and Demi Moore, and both of them need their movies to massively overperform to stand a chance.
@@axr7149Demi Moore is the dark horse to win
I think all Wicked’s possible awards should be held until the ending is released. It’s just one movie split in two after all.
Erivo should get Barbied. Oscars should show some seriousness instead of nominating a unmeritable populist performance.
Yaaaay! We all miss Brother Bro but glad to see it happen at long last!
Seems like people either love or hate The Substance, I’m somewhere in the middle. Found a lot to like about it (the performances, directing, etc.), just had a couple issues (too long, for one). The nominations it’s aiming for are pretty deserved
I have a hunch that Demi will win at Oscar irrespective of how it goes in other awards.. though i haven't seen it it does check few boxes like known actress long overdue... Showy performance.. body transformation... Can you imagine how interesting that win will be. Micky seems more like lily Gladstone.. heart of the movie but maybe not showy enough
Madison is wayyyy more showy than Demi lol (and in the entire film). Shes also very sympathetic. Also it’s more palatable. Shes not Lily she’s more like Jennifer in Silver Lining. Overdue actresses don’t win that often lol. Shes not even overdue for a “win”. That’s an online narrative by pundits not industry (she has no Oscar nom and doesn’t have the filmography that warrants one).
She won’t win. Academy will not award for that type of movie. Love Demi and that movie but look what happened to Toni Collete with hereditary… they don’t honor horror at all smh
If it weren’t for the body horror aspect she could win. The Academy respects psychological thrillers…but nominations day will tell us how much they respect body horror
Honestly Toni Collete was better than her in Hereditary and she wasn’t even nominated.
I mean Julie Andrews won for Mary Poppins so I think Cynthia has a shot for a nom at least
I didn’t even bother looking back to find other performances where they flew around the sky. Well done 👏🏼👏🏼 Totally forgot about Poppins. 🙂
Save Cynthia for Part 2🎉
Noooo fucking way, two of my favourite oscar predictors
The Substance The Best and the Strong 2024 movie.Demi Moore and Margareth Qualley wonderful performaces.The Substance Unique movie 👏👏👏👏
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 20.12):
*Best Picture:*
34. The Life of Chuck
33. Joker: Folie à Deux
32. Evil Does Not Exist
31. Hard Truths
30. Maria
29. The Wild Robot
28. Dìdi
27. Queer
26. Nosferatu
25. We Live in Time
24. A Different Man
23. Juror No. 2
22. The Piano Lesson
21. Gladiator II
20. Saturday Night
19. All We Imagine as Light
18. The Room Next Door
17. Blitz
16. I'm Still Here
15. Challengers
14. September 5
13. The Apprentice
12. A Real Pain
11. A Complete Unknown
---------------------------------------------------------
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
9. Nickel Boys
8. Sing Sing
7. The Substance
6. Conclave
5. The Brutalist
4. Dune: Part Two
3. Wicked
2. Emilia Pérez
1. Anora (current predicted winner)
*Best Lead Actress:*
26. Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey into Night)
25. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux)
24. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
23. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters)
22. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door)
21. Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu)
20. Sohelia Golestani (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
19. Tilda Swinton (The End)
18. Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness)
17. Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside)
16. June Squibb (Thelma)
15. Florence Pugh (We Live in Time)
14. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
13. Zendaya (Challengers)
12. Amy Adams (Nightbitch)
11. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
10. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
9. Kate Winslet (Lee)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
7. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
6. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
4. Angelina Jolie (Maria)
3. Demi Moore (The Substance)
2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
1. Mikey Madison (Anora) (current predicted winner)
*Best Lead Actor:*
27. Tom Hiddlestone (The Life of Chuck)
26. Paul Bettany (The Collaboration)
25. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
24. Timothée Chalamet (Dune: Part Two)
23. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
22. Misagh Zare (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
21. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie à Deux)
20. Keith Kupferer (Ghostlight)
19. Ethan Herrise (Nickel Boys)
18. Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness)
17. Jharrel Jerome (Unstoppable)
16. Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love)
15. Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time)
14. Cillian Murphy (Small Things Like These)
13. Glen Powell (Hit Man)
12. Nicholas Hoult (Juror No. 2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night)
10. Hugh Grant (Heretic)
9. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
8. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II)
7. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
6. Daniel Craig (Queer)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
3. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) (current predicted winner)
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
*Best Supporting Actress:*
27. Karen Gillan (The Life of Chuck)
26. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
25. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux)
24. Zendaya (Dune: Part Two)
23. Michelle Austin (Hard Truths)
22. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two)
21. Rachel Sennott (Saturday Night)
20. Jennifer Lopez (Unstoppable)
19. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door)
18. Lesley Manville (Queer)
17. Fernanda Montenegro (I'm Still Here)
16. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown)
15. Joan Chen (Dìdi)
14. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2)
13. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters)
12. Leonie Benesch (September 5)
11. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
10. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
9. Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice)
8. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
7. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
6. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
4. Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
3. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) (current predicted winner)
*Best Supporting Actor:*
26. Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck)
25. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration)
24. Harris Dickinson (Blitz)
23. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two)
22. John Lithgow (Conclave)
21. Dennis Quaid (The Substance)
20. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
19. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2)
18. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two)
17. Josh O'Connor (Challengers)
16. Drew Starkey (Queer)
15. Adam Pearson (A Different Man)
14. Harris Dickinson (Babygirl)
13. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked)
12. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora)
11. John Magaro (September 5)
10. Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)
9. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
8. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
7. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
6. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
4. Yura Borisov (Anora)
3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
2. Gy Pearce (The Brutalist)
1. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain) (current predicted winner)
*Best Director:*
27. Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck)
26. Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux)
25. Pablo Larraín (Maria)
24. Luca Guadagnino (Queer)
23. Clint Eastwood (Juror No. 2)
22. Robert Eggers (Nosferatu)
21. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
20. Jason Reitman (Saturday Night)
19. Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
18. Walter Salles (I'm Still Here)
17. Luca Guadagnino (Challengers)
16. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
15. Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice)
14. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
13. Tim Fehlbaum (September 5)
12. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
11. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
10. Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)
9. Jon M. Chu (Wicked)
8. RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)
7. Jacques Audillard (Emilia Pérez)
6. Edward Berger (Conclave)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
4. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
3. Dennis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two)
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
1. Sean Baker (Anora) (current predicted winner)
P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
Just watched Anora last night. I thought it was good, but is that really the kind of story that wins Best Picture? Stripper meets immature spoiled rich kid, they get married, parents get pissed, spoiled rich kid takes off, they spend 30 mins looking for him, spoiled rich kid dumps stripper, THE END. It feels like Licorice Pizza/Once Upon A Time In Hollywood combined. I'd even be disappointed if it won Original Screenplay, what's so original about it? Pretty weak year if it wins Best Picture. I had it at #1 sight unseen because of the hype surrounding it, but now I have Conclave & Wicked ahead of it. I still need to see The Brutalist of the top ranked movies. Right now I'd have Best Picture between Conclave & Wicked they are the most widely appealing and will receive a lot of Top 3 place votes. I don't see many older academy voters ranking Anora high on their ballot.
As they say at the start of the video, there’s an awful lot of Oscar predictors on UA-cam now. It’s got to be kind of intolerable to follow this stuff closely, but also have to put up with waiting for the late January release dates of some of the films. Anora’s supposed strength as an awards film is understandable because of its Palme D’Or, but it’s exactly the film you describe in your comment. What is good about its story at all?
Finally I find this comment.. yes I also already watched Anora and for me personally this movie is not that masterpiece (critics as usual over exaggerated things) the best thing about this movie is mikey madison and others seems overshadowed by her performance.. Im fine if this movie got into best picture, director and screenplay but to sweep major categories I will completely disagree with it even seeing Yura as Supporting actor nominee kind of weird to me. he wasnt doing something extraordinary (he still good btw) in this movie but everyone praise his performance
Wicked is even less the type to win BP. It's not being nominated in director and is definitely not winning screenplay.
Brutalist is the real front runner
Thank you, Thank you, Thank you, I also watched Anora last night and it was okay, really, I expected way more since people were gassing it to the moon, Mikey was great top 3 actress for me along with Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo, but the movie is defo not winning best picture.
1. Brady Corbet
2.Sean Baker
3. RaMell Ross
4. Coralie Fargeat
5. Mohammad Rasoulof
I think Emilia Perez will get in everywhere else and shockingly get snubbed by the Directors for Rasoulof
Demi Moore needs that Best Actress Oscar nomination ❤❤❤❤❤
Jesse Eisenberg is an actor, writer and producer for A Real Pain. He is strong to get in for screenplay. I don't think he's enough of a big name to get a 2nd nod for Picture.
Great predictions Best actress race is something supporting actress race is exciting
Saldana at number 2, and putting that... that ... "thing" at number 1? Really???????????????????!!!!
That is def not happening, zoe is winning, wake up ppl!!!!!!!
@@elijah0208 “that thing” is currently the frontrunner with 8 precursor wins, followed by Qualley (4), Saldana (3), Deadwyler (3), so yes this is definitely happening and rightfully so.
@@elijah0208 Lol, how old are you?
@@miir01 what is definitely happening for that thing is winning the award for most plastic unnatural face! The second award would probably be for unhealthy promotion of toxic fake beauty standards!
@@elijah0208that thing ? She’s literally GRANDE than ur future
I am holding out for Anora and I've been anticipating its release here in NZ for months. I really hope it doesn't let me down.
When does it come out in NZ?
@@RyanCasselman There have been previews on nights that I couldn't make it, but it officially is released on Boxing Day!
The thing about Erivo is, even though she is the heart of that film, she’s still just playing something akin to a Disney Princess. People are getting carried away with Wicked and have bought into the hype too much, especially with Grande who I guess will get nominated but is unlikely to win on the night. I mean, if they didn’t give it to Lady Gaga for ASIB, why would they hand an Oscar to Grande for her one-note performance of a kind of confused character? And both of these performers have only given HALF of a performance. People need to simmer down about Wicked. It’s got a long way to go still to achieve Barbie level global box office. I don’t think the Academy is ever going to be moved to laud it with actual awards.
tell me know nothing about acting :
I don't think Anora is that good
I'd say based on the Lead Actress performances I've seen I'd nominate in alphabetical order Gascon, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie & Madison. Still have to see Babygirl & I'm Still Here to make a final decision on the 5th slot but as of now I'd go with Demi Moore over Cynthia Erivo.
Finally this crossover!!
I strongly believe Fernanda Torres in "I'm still here" will be in the best actress lineup.
I feel like jaws are gonna drop when erivo takes the globes comedy/musical. Im personally rooting for her. The oz dust scene was truly heartbreaking.
Wicked is being underestimated here. Cynthia is already a 2-time nominee for a movie they could have easily ignored, they’re not gonna ignore her singing Defying Gravity in the biggest musical in decades. She’s locked. And mark my words, Wicked is the front runner for Best Picture. It’s the feel good movie of the moment with widest appeal to all branches.
Also…Emilia Perez love is artificially inflated by number of noms when it has 2 original song contenders and the other musical Wicked has 0. 🤷🏻♂️
I agree with you.. It will pissed everyone if Ariana and cynthia win best acting categories because clearly they have a momentum right now.. but you know academy member wouldnt let that happen
@@derrickdiazoni9571yall are really underestimating EPs international appeal and overestimating Wicked international appeal
They will loose momentum after the golden gloves. It’ll
Be Barbie all over again. Loved wicked and the performances but it ain’t happening
@@derrickdiazoni9571 wicked isn't the front runner. You need to have some international support to win that and Wicked, judging by its box office, is a much bigger deal in America than internationally. I doubt it'll get in the top 5 at BAFTA.
I'm still hoping for Dennis Villeneuve to earn an oscar nom for best director
🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞 Crossing my fingers a miracle happens at BAFTA.
Honestly he should win
You already know Kate Winslet for Lee is gonna be nominated 5th spot is always a surprise
I have a feeling this is gonna happen, too. I'm keeping her on my list.
Torres is definition of Proud in BRAZIL,bravo!
I just don't see the substance happening. Maybe if it overperforms at BAFTA, I can finally believe in it. But right now, I think it is like 12th in the best picture race.
I have Maclin over Borisov. Maclin is much more likely to get SAG and Borisov feels like a critics thing that won't translate to the Oscars like Charles Melton last season
Anora is soo much stronger then May December
No, Anora is not May December because there is no way for Anora to out the same way that happened with May December.
That's why people are predicting Borisov, why he is part of the possible winning film and that he is the perfect complement to Madison.
Had a very long sag and this was the video I needed
Fernanda Torres!!!
Perhaps it's just wishful thinking, but I predict Demi will win Best Actress. It seems improbable they'll award it to an actress with only one acclaimed performance. When Brie Larson won, she had already delivered a revelatory performance in Short Term 12 the previous year, which should have earned her a nomination in my opinion. Similarly, when Jennifer Lawrence won, she had Winter's Bone under her belt. It could happen, but I remain skeptical about Mikey Madison winning.
Demi has a compelling narrative, and I believe people will feel good about voting for her. I sense she has more passion behind her than Madison. I anticipate her winning streak will commence at the Globes. I might be wrong, but I hope I'm not.
I think there is a real possibility this happens. I feel more confident she can win the Globe tho, but struggle seeing her win the Oscar. But I do see your point with the Larson and Lawrence mentions. Cheers!
Demi Moore the Next Academy Awards Actress ❤❤❤
Oscar Expert’s cat is my favorite character in the OPVU (Oscar Predicting Video Universe)
Emilia Perez is definitely NOT a good movie. It was all over the place.
I completely disagree.
I don’t see Qualley in it. I got grande, Zoe, jones, Isabella and Danielle
I REALLY hope Qualley gets in.
@@Qpjh15she is not going to get in.
@@Qpjh15 she's getting all the right precursors for an assured nomination
@@dcpapi It’s possible. I’m not really confident in it at the moment, but there’s a decent likelihood. Now of course she won’t win lol
Emilia Perez just dropped to a 3 on Letterboxd
If Jamie Lee Curtis can enter the race and grab the award (undeserved), Then Demi Moore can get in( its not a terrible performance)
i LOVE audiard, really wanted to like EP and HATE siding with film twitter on anything, but man....what a terrible film. if it wins, it will absolutely be the "crash" of our generation.
What you're forgetting is that audiard is an auteur and the directing branch loves auteurs. As much as I hate to say it, it's getting in for director
Idk maybe I’m the outlier on this one, I don’t think yura burisov performance is better than Stanley Tucci or Jeremy Strong.. Burisov gave a great impact at the last 10 min of the movie but Tucci and Strong give a more powerful and enggaging performance throughout their movie (Especially Jeremy Strong)
It just my amateur opinion..
Note: If Anora is not the movie of the year, Yura will never get a nomination for that performance
Timmy is picking up that Oscar
I think it's going to be Adrian Brody. However, it would be ironic if he won because he would be the youngest Best Actor winner beating former youngest actor to win the Oscar, Adrian Brody.
It is either Brody or Fiennes. Fiennes's closest parallel is Gary Oldman actually in terms of age range, level of respect he has publicly, and massive overdue sentiment. Fiennes has had such incredible bad luck when it comes to awards, where his movies are healthily recognized but never him. In fact, when you take an actor's filmography and count the total combined number of Oscars won across all categories, Fiennes has the most Oscar-winning filmography of all time (his films have won a combined 36 Oscars to date).
lmaooo hes not winning, but im predicting him for marty supreme next year
Ryan 😍 so smart and beautiful
Not fair - Cynthia is not just "flying on a broom" Shges strong & vulnerable & riveting. You both missed Nicole Kidman. Jolie & Demi will be out. Hugh Grant not a chance.
I'm not sure if it's the same phrase that Tom O'Neil uses to describe this tendency to snub young attractive guys but I've seen it being named "slap the stud"
That was EXACTLY the phrase I was trying to remember 😂 THANK YOU!
I love the brilliant performance of Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in “Nickel Boys”.
Best Picture:
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Emilia Pérez
6. Nickel Boys
7. A Real Pain
8. Sing Sing
9. The Substance
10. Wicked
Best Director:
1. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)
3. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
5. RaMell Moss (Nickel Boys)
Best Leading Actor:
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
3. Daniel Craig (Queer)
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
5. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Best Leading Actress:
1. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
2. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
3. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
4. Demi Moore (The Substance)
5. Mikey Madison (Anora)
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Yura Borisov (Anora)
2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
4. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
5. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
2. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
4. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
5. Aunjanie Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
I might be crazy for saying this, but genuinely Saoirse Ronan could crash the Best Actress race if she gets BAFTA or SAG. I know some people say Marianne Jean-Baptiste will do incredibly well at BAFTA, which she'll definitely get nominated, but what if Saoirse Ronan happened to do incredibly well. Angelina Jolie, Cynthia Ervio, and Karla Sofia Gascon all gave performances that feel like they could miss. All are great performances no doubt, but what if Fernanda Torres, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, and either Saoirse Ronan (who the Academy LOVES) or Nicole Kidman made it in, along with Mikey Madison and Demi Moore.
Film Fam!
"Smooth freaking app" unlike Gold Derby?
Why are you comparing Emilia/Anora to Barbie/Poor Things when Poor Things won? Anora is obviously the Poor things in this comparison, right?
Fernanda Torres merece essa oscar só pela injustiça que a mãe dela sofreu.
Snub Gascon! She’s ruining her campaign on Twitter in real time lol
Director’s branch will snub Villenueve again? That is not happening
Fernanda Torres...
Natalie Portman’s win had a lot of CGI…it wasnt her body doing most of the dancing
İf dune doesn't get any oscar i swear im gonna lose my shit
The race to the Oscars is long and critics don't have much weight.
Last year, Margot Robbie and Natalie Portman fell before the Oscars.
2023 Viola Davis
2022 Lady Gaga
In the end, Moore or Gascon could fall.
It is amazing how you can bounce out Baptist and Erivo. You guys are confirming what has been happening for decades. You never see enough films with Black. And yes I am saying it. You need to actually watch the movies and then make your predictions. I have seen the movies and the hype that people are giving Angelina Jolie is not worth it. Maybe because I was a young adult during that time and I actually remember when Maria was having the affair with Ari Onassis while he was married to Jackie. As for carrying a movie without Best Picture nominations. Sophie's Choice only had one actor nomination. Meryl Streep. And no director nomination either.
@@raj2tennis I watched both Wicked and Hard Truths. I reviewed them on the channel. My predictions would be wildly different if choosing my favorites and Baptist would be if picking my favorites. Cheers
hell yeah! for 2 years in a row, my favorite films of the year are probably gonna get shafted by the oscars!! spiderverse, past lives, and barbie won a collective single *song* oscar, and saturday night and a real pain are gonna miss picture (fingers crossed for a kieran culkin win)
I have a lot of the same predictions.
Picture: Anora
Director: Brady Corbet
Actor: Adrien Brody
Actress: Mikey Madison
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana
Original Screenplay: Anora
Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
As a Mexican I can't wait to see Emilia Perez. All this controversy makes me want to watch more, I might end up hating the film though
Trust me you will!
As a Mexican I can assure you it starts off interesting (derrogatory) and then Selena shows up and it goes off the rails
Its racist stereotype garbage
Angelina Jolie deserves to win
Sing sing only missing the golden globe and that being by far the smallest voting body with no connection to the Oscars makes me confident it’s safe
Anora? What a terrible year for Oscars. Not passionate about anything yet. Nightbitch and blitz were my personal favorites but they are going nowhere. Hopefully I will like wicked.
I think that Karla could miss in best actress and Marianne B could get in for Hard truths and I think that Angelina Jolie was absolutely fantastic in Maria and I think that she is going to win best actress at the Golden globes
Wrong, it's gonna be Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here. It's a very powerful performance in a powerful movie.
It's going to be Nicole at the globes. The globes love her.
Your pushing too hard on the Substance. Demi Moore will be snubbed like Jennifer Lopez some years ago.
It’s possible. Golden Globes’ love really screwed with my head. I’m reeling back on Substance more and more. If Fargeat is snubbed at BAFTA and Moore is snubbed at SAG and BAFTA, then I’ll have no problem pulling them out.
Those lists are far too similar
Cute 😊😊😊
I’m thinking at this point a real pain will make picture over dune bc of the supporting actor win and dune 2 isn’t strong in above the line categories
Like most, you're Both 'hope dicting ' Sing Sing!!!
Also, collaborator is Waaaay off with research When it comes to Globes. There's not enough data to live by as the new group is just 2 years old. REMEMBER
For director, they're odd. Heck, you could see Almodovar get in. First film in the English language, not so great but the branch LOOOOVES HIM
Brutalist director - Great job But (and not my pick) Conclave Film. NOBODY DOESN'T LIKE THIS FILM. Older people in the Oscar pool.
Emila perez needs to be nominated for best actor 😅
ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT MISSING? 👎
To ignore Nicole Kidman and baptise is so wrong
Even baptise winning most of the regional critics award does not allow her to be in the top 5 of your predictions
What a joke
They are dumb, I don't take them seriously. They are too young to predict. They usually go with twinks and chicks.
Why are you so mad?
@ I am just giving my opinion like others
If I am mad, then you will see all the curse words in my comment
@ I just find it strange you are so worked up over something as trivial as an award show for celebrities but I digress lol
@@jackvlahos407an award show perceived as trivial and here you are dissenting to a comment by an award show follower
I can’t wait for Emilia Perez to SWEEP😂😂😂😂
It wont happen
@ 😂😂😂 don’t be to mad when it happens
@@fredamurphy7827 sure, i wont be mad, it will get tons of nomination, but not sweep the win for sure , it couldt be won 4 maybe
I have strong opinions about Emilia Perez that are not very flattering. It’s a movie from a French director about a Latin American reality that he doesn’t seem very familiar with, and I feel that it perpetuates stigmas about the Mexican society.
None of the leads are Mexican and do not speak Spanish with a Mexican accent. The musical elements seem abrupt and not fully developed. All the songs are forgettable, because most of them aren’t really songs, just sung dialogues that seem odd most of the time, and none of them sticks with the audience after the film finishes. I think these musical elements don’t help the narrative at all, on the contrary. It would be a much stronger film if it were a simple thriller, because the story is good but the music is more of a distraction than anything else.
In the end, it just feels like a movie about an “exotic” world made by Europeans for the European and American gaze, not fully committed on being truthful or authentic.
Not a single good movie this year.
A Complete Unknown is definitely NOT in ninth place, it's at best top five based on past history with biopics and based on where it's shown up. You guys are really underestimating this film. 👎
You’re hopedicting. It will be lucky if it makes top ten.
I’m fairly confident it won’t be nominated lol 😅
top 5 is crazy, it's #10 at BEST
Top 5
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Wicked
Emilia Perez
@@60612Mac You're fairly confidently living in denial. LOL 😂
Are you straight?
So funny and unprofessional to say that becos of narrative, she is getting in
The short listed list Oscar also show that the substance is not favourite among the academy voters
Fernanda Torres will be nomineted. You know nothing
He's going off of stats so he knows something but I agree Torres will get in
I'm sorry to tell you that if Fernanda doesn't get the BAFTA nomination, there will be no way for it to happen, Because if she only has that Globe nomination then it's not a good excuse to get in and it would just feel like "something the Globes would do"
.@@LDavDT33.
Okay, Bafta would be important but, Fernanda Torres was nominated for the SATELLITTE also. It counts.
And, let's not forget that OSCAR'S LINEUP is not a mirror of BAFTA'S and SAG'S.
In fact, it's pretty much a mirroŕ of the Globes'.
Wicked above Dune Part 2 lmaoooo this is the first video of yours I’ve seen, and your opinion just got invalidated so fast😂🤣🤣🤣🤣 Thats hilarious. You made my day.
According to all the precursors, and stats hes very accurate in that assessment, y'all just take everything like a personal attack, when for predicting purposes it' all about numbers and history not personal preference.
I'm sorry to tell you that's true.
Dune doesn't have as many chances as its first part since the awards are treating it like Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers (in the sense that they are ignoring it for "being more of the same as the first part" and that it is a second part), And well Wicked makes more sense because it came out so late and it caused a lot of noise throughout the season, and it has already been doing phenomenally well at several awards.
Is Karla Sofia Garcon category fraud? Some might say Actor is the correct category there.
are you dumb?
You retrograde symbiote. It's Hollywood go to your Trump rally.
She's an actress (hint: "Karla") who had gender confirmation surgery 6 years ago, and has said she felt like she was a girl since she was 4 years old. If someone genuinely says and believes they're a woman, and completely acts like one, and most of society is mature enough to accept this with grace and compassion, then it doesn't matter what some overweight American weirdos think.
Why are you switching one Black actress for another? Seems racist.
That doesn't even make sense, just because they do it doesn't mean it will happen at the Oscars, it's just a way of predicting.
Did they do that in the video? And if anything, it's a recognition of the potential racial biases in the Academy, not the people predicting them.
I am hoping Nosferatu will be in the top 10 for best picture.