TAKE OUR FREE VIDEO MARKETING MASTERCLASS FOR 2024: videomarketingfreecourse.com/ Become the best video marketer in the room at www.elitevideo.marketing/
This is the best interview of Zeihan I have seen all year. I've never watched Aaron Watson before. He just earned a new follower. The guy is extremely well informed. He asked all the right questions.
This was an excellent interview with Peter. He’s so on top of things in the world. This conversation explains so much of what’s going on. These are very interesting times we live in.
MY GREATEST CONCERN IS HOW TO RECOVER FROM ALL THIS ECONOMIC AND GLOBAL INFLATION AND STAY AFLOAT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE POLITICAL POWER TUSSLE GOING ON IN THE US🇺🇸.
As with any big financial decision, it's important to keep your guard up for economic risks. However, smart planning, time, and seeking advice from a financial adviser can help keep you and your money safe.
I'm one of her clients.... and I'm a living testimony of Expert Mrs. Pamela. She has changed my financial status for the best, all thanks To my friend who introduced her to me
She has been trading for me, her strategies are wonderful and she made me see binary and forex trade from a different dimension. I keep making profits weekly
Been hooked on Mr Zs take lately. He is repetitive but does hammer home some very interesting points. I actually appreciate that he goes back over his talking points and builds on them as events unfold.
Bro, he says that the southern boarder is 2000 miles long then says that the entire US military is only enough for one dude every few miles....... Also his China claims are pretty easily disputed
i applaud the interview questions here for being so insightful & inquisitive. i tried watching a lot of interviewers talk to mr. zeihan about this book lately & they tend to stumble through questions that make it sound like they didn’t read the assignment; aaron clearly dove deep into this text & came out with a lot of good questions. this interview is a fantastic epilogue to a book that has had my mind racing ever since i finished it. kudos!
Not really. They're not in full-mode war to the death. Not even close. That was the Soviets/US. And as Peter says time and again, China and "the rest" NEED Oceania to have their "economic miracles" even exist. Instead, consider Samuel P Huntington's Clash of Civilizations as a leitmotif, or else Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel. Much closer to what Peter's describing, IMHO.
“Oceania” has a noteworthy population that doesn’t understand what a human male and female are (a comparable population that is now _confused_ on the topic), is progressively advocating for the butchery of its youth regarding their future adult reproductivity, executes would be citizens (developing babies) on a scale comparable to rats (that will devour their own young) and is STEADILY creating conflict between its male and female populations. That is a human population so fundamentally broken that they should be treated as radioactive by outside human populations.
Yeah , and they both fail to discuss the most important geopolitical issues of all. Namely ,the rise and malign influence of the WEF, and the impending collapse of the world dollar system and its huge ramifications.
@@nickjohnparker1 yes I was interested at first but then he starts describing history in a way that I have no memory of. He actually seems pleased with the decisions taken with Russia and Ukraine that I’d argue are the worst mistakes with the conflict.
Aaron, excellent job interviewing Peter. Digging deeper into the issues was an outstanding insight into Peter's deep and thorough understanding and your curiosity. Well done all around.
Well said! I am also here to learn how to invest after listening to a lady on tv talk about the importance of investing and how she made 7 figure in 3 month, somehow the video taught me nothing and left me even more confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas on how to invest for retirement
@@rajeshupadhyay5683Think long term, personally i ventured into the market so i won’t be stranded after i retire. A colleague of mine introduced me to CFA " Priscilla Dearmin-Turner " who drew out retirement plans and they all aligned with what i wanted and had to pick one plan and with her exit and entry strategies on commodities , securities and digital assets, my portfolio has really been diversified with good ROI. I am really impressed by how much i have achieved
Peter Zion is always entertaining. He always oversimplifies. Sometimes he doesn't know what he's talking about. Often he doesn't take into account that people are flexible and can change their behavior. For example, Germany has not Fallen apart because they no longer get natural gas from Russia.
Nuclear power is highly efficient and highly regulated. They are the safest places to work in the world. How many deaths have been caused by nuclear power compared to every other industry and facilities.
Great job finding something new to talk about! Move of the content in the book I've heard in other talks, but after 37:08 was unique, and that's a great way to make yourself stand out.
A nation nationalizing foreign owned assets surprising China is something that astounds me, like "You guys don't remember what *you* did to foreigners?"
25:08 on the drug war: "I would love to give you some signposts of how we could make this better, but as long as Americans like their cocaine and as long as they're willing to pay for it, it's going to continue to come and the drug cartels are going to fight over it." Here's a signpost: legalize drugs. Do this and you destroy the cartel's profits overnight.
@@kpduffy not exactly. Many/most offenders are in prison on drug charges, yes. But that's because drug charges are easier to successfully prosecute than whatever the criminal was doing that caught the attention of the police. Someone may be in prison for selling drugs but he's really doing time because he stole cars and killed someone.
@@AaronWatsonGeo Yours is the second of these interviews and I largely agree with most of what he says, but I'd love to know who or what Peter thinks these threats are to the trade routes. I'm Australian and we have a current policy of protecting our trade routes. ua-cam.com/video/MTCqXlDjx18/v-deo.html Also I am an engineer and can all of you just please stop making out that you know anything about robotics, particularly industrial robotics and what we use it for in factories. Its actually annoying. Also can you all please stop talking about self driving cars. They are not going to happen except maybe as a sort of autopilot on interstate freeways. I have done a lot of industrial software development and automation is great because its such a definable task. Driving a car is not definable because there's no actual definition of a street from a software perspective. Its hard to try and describe what's going on in a human brain as you drive down just normal suburban street with parked cars, kids on bikes, trees, lawns, footpaths, driveways, etc. the number of combinations is billions. A human brain can drive down any street, even for the first time, and instinctively categorize 1000s of objects as being important or not important. If you go back a few years Elon Musk said he'd deliver self driving cars and a bunch of other companies said we can do that too. Do you hear anything these days????? Yeah they woke up to the fact it was just another Elon grade school fantasy Hollywood science project. Then most of them quietly shelved it or sold it off.
I think Peter likes to hear his own voice. The highly interconnected world is not going away anytime soon. China is not a fragile economy and, quite frankly, the US doesn’t have great demographics either.
Agreed, but he probably has more flexibility and makes more money as a consultant and speeches. I'd say his writing and interviews are more interesting than in a podcasts, given that some of his major points are repetitive.
A key quote " When you industrialize , you also urbanize and have fewer kids ." ... and after 2 1/2 generations of this , most of the advanced world has now aged past the point of no return . .
. Actually , I looked into this Britain's population increased dramatically during the 19th Century Industrial Revolution , as did Japan's population , when it industrialized during the 20th Century . Increases in sanitation ( water mains and sewers ) could help explain this but overall I'd say the comment is false . .
11:24 - This is no excuse for how poorly the Biden administration did at planning and executing the Afghan pull-out. Couldn’t have been much worse. The horrors that unfolded were never reported.
@@Hadesthief - the slaughtering of Afghans by the brutal Taliban insurgents taking over as the US up and left. Literally murdering woman and children as they rushed to the safe haven of American bases, as reported first hand by Tim Kennedy, owner of a security contractor company that was there.
@@Hadesthief - some amount was inevitable. We should have moved more people out before we started moving military out. We tragically did it the complete opposite way. Any why announce it the second you decide to do it. Complete blunder. It was within our control to do it better and we didn’t.
42:47 - Right; I've long thought that when a person gets "really good" at something, almost no matter what it is, they gain a new kind of ability to process the inputs in their arena that a novice participant just can't possibly have. For me it was digital logic design. I came of age back when the "board level" design work was prominent (i.e., before the really complex integrated circuits started to appear). I could just kind "munge design ideas around" in my head, and generally knew exactly what my system was going to look like before I ever started drawing a schematic. Beginners can't do that. Clearly, for Peter it takes the form of an " intuition" about all of this stuff he's telling us about. The only way to get to that point in a profession is practice. Years and years of practice. It also helps if you enjoy it - it's easier to invest the necessary energy into the endeavor.
@@AaronWatsonGeo when was this recorded? The way Peter talks it's like a couple months ago. He said we're a couple months into Ukraine war. Thanks for putting out this great content!
"the boarder is 2000 miles long" 10 seconds later "if we put the entire military down there that's one man every couple miles" so the entire US military is under 1000 soldiers.... How can you take him seriously
How is India not a strategic ally? I think going forward India will perhaps be America's most important ally in the 21st century. An alliance with them will be crucial.
@@sandrosadhukhan Yet. And this is more than about trade. India is strategically position against China. Truth be told, Peter Zeihan is a bit short sighted and lacks understanding about the changes in technology that will make China a threat. This is not the 20th century, A.I. and improvements in artificial wombs will tilt the balance of power to China irrespective of it's supposed current demographic profile.
The problem with robotics replacing workers is that robots cannot replace consumers. If globalization goes away then the outcome will still be the same.
I’ve been aware of the low birth rates for about 5 years. I’m in South Korea which may be the worst. Normal replacement is 2.1 children per couple. Below 1.9 is unrecoverable. Japan is something like 1.1 and South Korea 1.04. Typically they look to technology to fill the worker shortage. But machines don’t pay taxes to support the social services system. In western countries they are trying mass immigration which dilutes their cultural identity. What we are seeing now in political instabilty and social chaos is just the tipping point of major social and economic changes that will transform the world in a way that we can’t go back. What rights and freedoms you once had are gone as they were just words on paper as is money. What you think you own can be taken away and that includes your children. CV 19 was the catalyst to start this rapid transformation.
I agree that "machines don't pay taxes" but at the same time, "machines do not receive a salary". That means there is room for Companies to pay for the gap on taxes, from not using workers anymore. Companies profits have skyrocketed for years.
"Supercarriers aren't good for protecting sea lanes" They can plug holes -- very big holes, actually -- in land-based air force coverage of sea lanes. The Straits of Malacca aren't very big, that's kind of the point, and they're even smaller at Mach 3. Do you expect any of these supercarriers to be decommissioned anytime soon? When do you expect the pirates to start appearing? Do you expect us not to respond like Roosevelt - "Pericardis alive, or Raizuli dead" to any Captain Philips situation, in the future?
@xan kon I think his argument is that without naval coverage from the United States, Chinese export trade (and economy) collapses, because the Chinese navy can't operate all the way to Europe. Even worse, without a navy capable of operating as far as the Persian Gulf / Africa / Australia, China can't even keep their materials imports going, even the Middle Eastern oil that keeps their lights on. The problem seems to be, regular working-class Americans see globalism as a bad deal: we pay a lot in taxes for our military, we give up our lives in places like Iraq, and we end up unemployed because our factories get shut down and shipped off to China. Most Americans really don't want to be "the world's policeman", especially on these terms. Worse, it looks like our freedoms (the American Way) are under attack by the Chinese Way. Chinese media is full of lies and misinformation (like its denial of the Tienanmen Square massacre in 1989), and US media seems to be pushed the same way. China is pushing (and purchasing) governments like Justin Trudeau's, to go stamp on freedom and go authoritarian. China is pushing drugs into our country, which kills far more Americans than the wars we've been fighting. Every indication is that wherever Chinese influence spreads -- like Hong Kong -- freedom withers and dies. This is giving us a VERY bad impression of the Chinese government. What could help? - Freeing Hong Kong. Specifically, let Jimmy Lai and anyone else involved in the umbrella movement, out of jail. - Hold democratic elections in Hong Kong, free from any interference from Beijing. If this doesn't happen, there's absolutely no way that America will hesitate to send any fleet invading Taiwan, to the bottom of the sea. - Stop supporting drug manufacture and smuggling in North America. - Close down the concentration camps in Sinkiang, if you don't want us to start calling it East Turkmenistan and pushing for its independence. This will do for a start.
"Maybe this is overly reductive" I'm not entirely convinced we're worried enough about that, here. If things are as unstable as all this, history could go chaotic real fast.
His numbers about the boarder are way off. 2000 miles / 1,000,000 in the army alone with 4/1 support. We could deploy 125 infantry for every mile of boarder. That would seal it pretty tight.
@@sheldo8083 And he claims to be good at math! Kind of degrades much of his credibility about much of what he says. Remember he makes money with his books and speculations. He is not a professional analyst. He is an entertainer. IMHO
33:07 I can at least tell you that nuclear capacity is not going to scale well for the chinese. A prime reason is that the models of reactors they field are based on US and French designs. Those designs have not been altered because the chinese do not have the expertise. This means that a slew of parts to bring any of these online or even maintenance requires parts sourced from the USA since the blueprints call for several specific parts that the chinese can't manufacture themselves. They pay out the nose for these components, and it is not a fast order to fill... relying on especially small, especially vetted manufacturers that specialize in the hyper regulated paper-trail-for-every-material type of fabrication. Additionally, with the aging workforce and the relative demise of the skilled machinist, I don't think there's much capacity to expand production at the rate they're going to require to offset their imminent crisis.
Robotics and automation don't fix the demographics problem not only because of the demand side of the equation but because your country will not be the only one decoupling their production capacity from their labour force size, so your economy will be in the same terms in comparison with the rest. In the case of China, this decoupling will hurt them more than help them because their huge workforce is one of their strategic moats right now.
Thank you for the content. I appreciate the conversation. If I may, I think it was a bit too much editing. Just some love-based constructive criticism. Be well.
I'm a half-assed sci fi writer, world-building for hard near future sf. The future is exciting and is so^2 scary. Thank God we're not doing all this crap with SSTOs...
Change is always difficult. Look at the internet. It is wondaful and awful all at the same time. As goes the past will go the future. Forever changing without regard for good or bad.
The interviewer asked Peter stupid questions. He got an exclusive access to the world's most prominent political scientist and economist but screwed up.
Treaty of Westphalia? (pretty sure that no one knows that that was in 1648) A bit weird. That was a peace treaty between countries at war. The EU is not at war with itself. In the meantime there have been many important treaties in the development of the EU like the Maastricht treaty, which laid the foundation of the monetary union, the Euro, closer economical ties and a common safety policy. That was in 1992. Peter likes to think that Europe has not developed, and the only development it has known was superimposed by the USA. While an important ally, that is not 100% true.
And they don’t want to be at war, that is his point. Putin is freaking them out after they decided to NOT take security seriously for over 30 years. The bear is at their door, the USA is not going to send American ground troops so they (EU countries) have to work together to have a chance
You have got to think for your self before you actually speak aloud. Maastricht is nothing more than a paper agreement that offers nothing. The current defense policies are real and not paper based as they are dealing with the reality of a Russian invasion. European countries to date cannot even agree on immigration and this defense alliance is new and real.
Granted they will need more than what can be sent by tankers. Europe will need some pipeline from the middle East or in the case of Germany will they go back to burning coal?
@@fightsports66 TY for the cogent reply. My focus is not only on distribution but also on production. Else the laws of supply and demand will make oil products even more expensive
@@fightsports66 Europe will tap into its own gas reserves, Oil, important from North America and Africa/Asia. None of this will be overnight but it will happen. Even if Russia sells them the energy for the next 5 years it will still happen. Once Russia threatens Europe the game is over.
19:30 did you say we're keeping Eastern Hemisphere Nations out of the western hemisphere? When China is the greatest trade partner with many countries in Latin america? Apparently Brazil is holding out.
Referencing the Chinese collapse, isn't that when nations become most dangerous? If you have nothing to lose, and your population are hungry and getting angry, doesn't it make perverted sense to create an existential crisis, by starting a war with a neighbour, or going "all in" by taking on the world? You get to lower the population, especially your dissenters, create a cohesive nationalism AND enter a state of war production that keeps people occupied instead of protesting. Maybe China's cultural MO isn't the same as the rest of us, but I'm relying on "human nature" and historical lessons that I can remember.
I find Zeihan interesting and his views insightful. However, he is always smiling and laughing, which with the bad news he brings he should be substantially more sober minded about this grim message he spreads. Nevertheless, if he is just using his book and lofty insights as a means for popularity and/or money making I can see the sense of laughter he adds to his shocking proclamation.
How does Peter Zeihan's intelligence collection and analysis differ from U.S. intelligence agencies' intelligence collection and analysis? Who gets it right or wrong more?
@@formernavyspook They obviously knew better. They just lied. Anything useful the intelligence agencies know gets classified. That is why it is pointless for them to release anything to the public. The public's proper attitude to any such release is very healthy skepticism.
"If you want to be a part of the US's security system, you now have to pay for it" Doesn't that make it more stable? Isn't that the only thing that makes sense, now that we're no longer Last Man Standing after WW2? Don't American workers have a point, wanting the global order not to be balanced on their backs anymore?
Yep, these coming decades all the globalised export economies and such are theoretically gonna come back to America, and they will be a big winner after a rocky transition.
"As Australia is finding out" When has Australia not pulled its weight in our alliance with the US? We've been involved in every major US war for over a century, more than any other country.
Historical Note on the US Navy at the end of WW2. What Peter is saying about the NAVY having the ability to control the sea lanes is true. The Navy had about 1000 capital ships. To support them there were about 5,000 ships. So we possessed a lot of trained seamen to operate enough sea power to control the oceans. There may be a trend to develop a new kind of aircraft carrier. instead of every plane being manned by a pilot think of a mother ship with one way kamikaze drones. The mother ship can be vertical take off and landing type. But it has the endurance to take the switchblade/kamikaze where they can fulfill their fate and take out that which needs taking out. The mother ship is a kind of aircraft that we had extensive experience with. Back in the early days of WW2 we sent a couple dozen B-25 Mitchell bombers off the deck of the USS Hornet. The USS Enterprise was its escort. This was the Tokyo raid in about April 1942.
I’m concerned desperate people will do desperate things. Desperate nations may also take desperate action. Too bad we can not work for everyone’s best interests. Human factor is a wild card .
been following his work since 2017. though his assessments had but very few holes, most of his predictions seemed unlikely. The Russian one came true. Its China's turn, time will tell how right/wrong he was. His books are a good read though especially the first one they're light on details but does a great job of condensing the info that he wants to get across.
China has a demography problem, food problem, manufacturing problem, energy problem and the list goes on and on. China is about to start a war with India over water rights as it has built dams that will affect the main Indian water supply network. India will respond to this by blocking Chinese oil imports that come via tankers.
Just to correct Zeihan on the Sinaloa cartel. Sinaloa is actually led by “El Mayo” Zambada. “El Chapo” is more popular and he’s up there in the leadership, but he is not the leader of Sinaloa. Source: “El Traidor” by Anabel Hernandez
Interesting question. :) Sounds like in the mid to late 2030's the followers of Chiang Kai-Shek will abandon the island of Formosa to restore order to mainland China. :D
If we keep sending drunk dementia patients to Taiwan we might actually see the Taiwanese people vote for a faster merger with China. The people have long since wanted the outside influence of the US and China to go away and let it happen naturally. If it looks like a war will unfold with their island being ground zero don’t discount the people trying to avoid it. If reading that makes you feel uncomfortable I’d recommend you look for some stats on what the people of Taiwan think, I’m certain you will be shocked because we’ve been force fed propaganda about the situation. I saw a similar mental shift with my Gen Z Russian friends. At the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine they were shocked and embarrassed and mad at Putin. After they’ve watched the rampant bigotry against Russians on top of the never ending flow of bizarre lies and war propaganda their view is a complete 180. They’re disgusted with Europe and the western media as a whole plus they’ve had time to learn about the atrocities committed against Ukrainian Russian speakers since 2014. This has them feeling proud of Putin. We in the west need to get away from these military industrial complex and deep state narrative lies and start behaving like good faith actors. Oh and prosecute Fauci and his medical mafia is a must too.
Countries Which benefited from China cheap development of roads, rail and infrastructure have alot to celebrate since this wont happen again in the near future. Kenya did change dramatically from this and we are 20yrs ahead of others who waited and now they will see.
Africa is going to be interesting. I think America can take some of that… Their workspace is shrinking as tribes become more pronounced then state lines
@@bighands69 infrastructure has unblocked our economies, offcourse you need to have already a good economy to move to the next level Kenya was already on its way up, we needed a booster. By 2030 Kenya will be like Singapore
The problem with this is why would you not bring production back to your own country and save the shipping cost. Also more advance 3D printers will democratize manufacturing in the future. Maybe we all have a 3D printer in our house and instead of buying products you buy plans and your printer prints it. The future is going to be very interesting.
China is an export economy and they have not automated their manufacturing and rely on human hands. They can talk about this in terms of big sweeping statements but they have not put the effort in.
@@bighands69 furthermore, 100s of millions of unemployed and starving Chinese workers who have been replaced by robots would quickly lead to the downfall of the ccp.
Peter's point on China's Covid vaccine is well taken; no wonder that lockdowns are more strict and frequent. Given a low birth rates, the regime certainly does not want to see higher death rates.
TAKE OUR FREE VIDEO MARKETING MASTERCLASS FOR 2024: videomarketingfreecourse.com/
Become the best video marketer in the room at www.elitevideo.marketing/
This is the best interview of Zeihan I have seen all year. I've never watched Aaron Watson before. He just earned a new follower. The guy is extremely well informed. He asked all the right questions.
Thank you!!
@@AaronWatsonGeo Peter's great talk : ua-cam.com/video/660baZoWnoQ/v-deo.html
almost all of his facts are incorrect. Check them
Are you kidding? He is a joke!
This was an excellent interview with Peter. He’s so on top of things in the world. This conversation explains so much of what’s going on. These are very interesting times we live in.
MY GREATEST CONCERN IS HOW TO RECOVER FROM ALL THIS ECONOMIC AND GLOBAL INFLATION AND STAY AFLOAT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE POLITICAL POWER TUSSLE GOING ON IN THE US🇺🇸.
As with any big financial decision, it's important to keep your guard up for economic risks. However, smart planning, time, and seeking advice from a financial adviser can help keep you and your money safe.
Wow I'm just shocked you mentioned expert Mrs Pamela thought I'm the only one trading with her
I'm one of her clients.... and I'm a living testimony of Expert Mrs. Pamela. She has changed my financial status for the best, all thanks To my friend who introduced her to me
She has been trading for me, her strategies are wonderful and she made me see binary and forex trade from a different dimension. I keep making profits weekly
With all this going on in the world we have no option than to invest in crypto
Been hooked on Mr Zs take lately. He is repetitive but does hammer home some very interesting points. I actually appreciate that he goes back over his talking points and builds on them as events unfold.
He feels repetitive to me but only because he's consistent in all his interviews and says the same things. Good information.
@@JA-vz1nl ua-cam.com/video/BlQKdoWCfAg/v-deo.html
Bro, he says that the southern boarder is 2000 miles long then says that the entire US military is only enough for one dude every few miles....... Also his China claims are pretty easily disputed
@@MrLifecereal regardless, China will face a demographic crisis with the 1 child policy.
@@dogetaxes8893
Not all “demographic crises” are equal .
China will be fine, believe it ✌️
i applaud the interview questions here for being so insightful & inquisitive. i tried watching a lot of interviewers talk to mr. zeihan about this book lately & they tend to stumble through questions that make it sound like they didn’t read the assignment; aaron clearly dove deep into this text & came out with a lot of good questions. this interview is a fantastic epilogue to a book that has had my mind racing ever since i finished it. kudos!
very kind. thank you!
I agree. The questions were set up well which allowed Peter to just breeze through smoothly. Great job! 👍
Peter is essentially describing the geo-political world of George Orwell's 1984: Oceania (US and its cultural allies) vs the rest.
Not really. They're not in full-mode war to the death. Not even close. That was the Soviets/US. And as Peter says time and again, China and "the rest" NEED Oceania to have their "economic miracles" even exist. Instead, consider Samuel P Huntington's Clash of Civilizations as a leitmotif, or else Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel. Much closer to what Peter's describing, IMHO.
“Oceania” has a noteworthy population that doesn’t understand what a human male and female are (a comparable population that is now _confused_ on the topic), is progressively advocating for the butchery of its youth regarding their future adult reproductivity, executes would be citizens (developing babies) on a scale comparable to rats (that will devour their own young) and is STEADILY creating conflict between its male and female populations.
That is a human population so fundamentally broken that they should be treated as radioactive by outside human populations.
Yeah , and they both fail to discuss the most important geopolitical issues of all. Namely ,the rise and malign influence of the WEF, and the impending collapse of the world dollar system and its huge ramifications.
@@nickjohnparker1 yes I was interested at first but then he starts describing history in a way that I have no memory of. He actually seems pleased with the decisions taken with Russia and Ukraine that I’d argue are the worst mistakes with the conflict.
Aaron, excellent job interviewing Peter. Digging deeper into the issues was an outstanding insight into Peter's deep and thorough understanding and your curiosity. Well done all around.
Thanks Tony!
Well said! I am also here to learn how to invest after listening to a lady on tv talk about the importance of investing and how she made 7 figure in 3 month, somehow the video taught me nothing and left me even more confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas on how to invest for retirement
@@rajeshupadhyay5683Think long term, personally i ventured into the market so i won’t be stranded after i retire. A colleague of mine introduced me to CFA " Priscilla Dearmin-Turner " who drew out retirement plans and they all aligned with what i wanted and had to pick one plan and with her exit and entry strategies on commodities , securities and digital assets, my portfolio has really been diversified with good ROI. I am really impressed by how much i have achieved
Investment now will be wise but the truth is investing on your own will be a high risk. I think it will be best to get a professional👌
@@lezliewhicker8450Thank you, Going through her profile in her webpage, she smashed all her state certificate and accreditation🙏
Peter Zion is always entertaining. He always oversimplifies. Sometimes he doesn't know what he's talking about. Often he doesn't take into account that people are flexible and can change their behavior. For example, Germany has not Fallen apart because they no longer get natural gas from Russia.
Zeihan always overstates the weaknesses of America's rivals and foes while ignoring America's own weaknesses.
Nuclear power is highly efficient and highly regulated. They are the safest places to work in the world. How many deaths have been caused by nuclear power compared to every other industry and facilities.
Great job finding something new to talk about! Move of the content in the book I've heard in other talks, but after 37:08 was unique, and that's a great way to make yourself stand out.
A nation nationalizing foreign owned assets surprising China is something that astounds me, like "You guys don't remember what *you* did to foreigners?"
What?
@@bighands69 He's saying that Peter Bogus is full of crap.
@@whoeverwhoever400
He simply is not making any sense.
Great interview, thx for pushing back to gain further clarity and well done!
25:08 on the drug war: "I would love to give you some signposts of how we could make this better, but as long as Americans like their cocaine and as long as they're willing to pay for it, it's going to continue to come and the drug cartels are going to fight over it."
Here's a signpost: legalize drugs. Do this and you destroy the cartel's profits overnight.
Eighty percent of the worlds police force would out of a job.
@@phillipwallbank5 As would 50% of the world's prison guards.
@@kpduffy not exactly. Many/most offenders are in prison on drug charges, yes. But that's because drug charges are easier to successfully prosecute than whatever the criminal was doing that caught the attention of the police. Someone may be in prison for selling drugs but he's really doing time because he stole cars and killed someone.
I agree the war on drugs has done nothing but make killers rich and drugs more dangerous.
it would be very interesting to do a recap after about 9 months.
The book & audio book come out on a day when I have 6 hours in the car for work... YEP! already pre-ordered the audiobook. Can't wait...
What a brilliant interview! A lot of kudos to Aaron for doing a great job
I’m obsessed with watching any Zeihan interviews, and i would consider your’s one of the best. Well done. Subscribed and thumbs up right after. Thx :)
I also watch a lot of his stuff, so this means a lot. Thank you!
😊 thanks 🙏🏼
OHH Peter 哈哈哈 ua-cam.com/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/v-deo.html
@@AaronWatsonGeo Yours is the second of these interviews and I largely agree with most of what he says, but I'd love to know who or what Peter thinks these threats are to the trade routes.
I'm Australian and we have a current policy of protecting our trade routes.
ua-cam.com/video/MTCqXlDjx18/v-deo.html
Also I am an engineer and can all of you just please stop making out that you know anything about robotics, particularly industrial robotics and what we use it for in factories. Its actually annoying.
Also can you all please stop talking about self driving cars. They are not going to happen except maybe as a sort of autopilot on interstate freeways. I have done a lot of industrial software development and automation is great because its such a definable task. Driving a car is not definable because there's no actual definition of a street from a software perspective. Its hard to try and describe what's going on in a human brain as you drive down just normal suburban street with parked cars, kids on bikes, trees, lawns, footpaths, driveways, etc. the number of combinations is billions. A human brain can drive down any street, even for the first time, and instinctively categorize 1000s of objects as being important or not important.
If you go back a few years Elon Musk said he'd deliver self driving cars and a bunch of other companies said we can do that too. Do you hear anything these days????? Yeah they woke up to the fact it was just another Elon grade school fantasy Hollywood science project. Then most of them quietly shelved it or sold it off.
I think Peter likes to hear his own voice. The highly interconnected world is not going away anytime soon. China is not a fragile economy and, quite frankly, the US doesn’t have great demographics either.
Love the interview. Peter is fascinating.
Peter needs to start a podcast. It would quickly become my number 1 listen. I'd love to listen to him get more granular on subjects!
i agree
Agreed, but he probably has more flexibility and makes more money as a consultant and speeches. I'd say his writing and interviews are more interesting than in a podcasts, given that some of his major points are repetitive.
A key quote " When you industrialize , you also urbanize and have fewer kids ."
... and after 2 1/2 generations of this , most of the advanced world has now aged past the point of no return .
.
.
Actually , I looked into this
Britain's population increased dramatically during the 19th Century Industrial Revolution ,
as did Japan's population , when it industrialized during the 20th Century .
Increases in sanitation ( water mains and sewers ) could help explain this
but overall I'd say the comment is false .
.
11:24 - This is no excuse for how poorly the Biden administration did at planning and executing the Afghan pull-out. Couldn’t have been much worse. The horrors that unfolded were never reported.
What horrors?
@@Hadesthief - the slaughtering of Afghans by the brutal Taliban insurgents taking over as the US up and left. Literally murdering woman and children as they rushed to the safe haven of American bases, as reported first hand by Tim Kennedy, owner of a security contractor company that was there.
@@67NewEngland but that was inevitable, no matter who was in charge or how well the withdrawal went.
@@Hadesthief - some amount was inevitable. We should have moved more people out before we started moving military out. We tragically did it the complete opposite way. Any why announce it the second you decide to do it. Complete blunder. It was within our control to do it better and we didn’t.
@@67NewEngland "Move people out" - to where? Somewhere else in Afghanistan? What good does that do?
42:47 - Right; I've long thought that when a person gets "really good" at something, almost no matter what it is, they gain a new kind of ability to process the inputs in their arena that a novice participant just can't possibly have. For me it was digital logic design. I came of age back when the "board level" design work was prominent (i.e., before the really complex integrated circuits started to appear). I could just kind "munge design ideas around" in my head, and generally knew exactly what my system was going to look like before I ever started drawing a schematic. Beginners can't do that. Clearly, for Peter it takes the form of an " intuition" about all of this stuff he's telling us about.
The only way to get to that point in a profession is practice. Years and years of practice. It also helps if you enjoy it - it's easier to invest the necessary energy into the endeavor.
I've been watching Peter's talks since around the end of 2020. You did a fantastic job of going through his work, and bringing up counter points.
Thanks. I’m a big fan, too. Was aiming to get more clarity on his framework. Thanks for watching!
@@AaronWatsonGeo Peter's great talk : ua-cam.com/video/660baZoWnoQ/v-deo.html
@@AaronWatsonGeo when was this recorded? The way Peter talks it's like a couple months ago. He said we're a couple months into Ukraine war. Thanks for putting out this great content!
@@mathewphilip6764 recorded about a month and a half ago
"the boarder is 2000 miles long" 10 seconds later "if we put the entire military down there that's one man every couple miles" so the entire US military is under 1000 soldiers.... How can you take him seriously
Good engaging interview. Well done!
thanks!
他说的都对，你们大聪明老外一定要相信他，因为可以上天堂
XSWL
135崩溃，246威胁，按着节奏来，各方面利益都照顾到了
@@xsaxsa4706 他们当真就行，说1到7全崩溃也无妨，这些大聪明简直就是曲线救国
Man please get Zeihan again :D
How is India not a strategic ally? I think going forward India will perhaps be America's most important ally in the 21st century. An alliance with them will be crucial.
Study about trade and you'll understand why India is not a major ally
@@sandrosadhukhan Yet. And this is more than about trade. India is strategically position against China. Truth be told, Peter Zeihan is a bit short sighted and lacks understanding about the changes in technology that will make China a threat. This is not the 20th century, A.I. and improvements in artificial wombs will tilt the balance of power to China irrespective of it's supposed current demographic profile.
@@MelkorTolkien also Cov** is killing alot of their aging population, so they'll be leaner and meaner
The problem with robotics replacing workers is that robots cannot replace consumers. If globalization goes away then the outcome will still be the same.
Good point
And robots don’t pay taxes. Or have children who pay taxes.
@@dastrnad But don’t robots make everything cheaper which means we need less taxes and less spending?
Great insight about his actual job as a consultant
I’ve been aware of the low birth rates for about 5 years. I’m in South Korea which may be the worst. Normal replacement is 2.1 children per couple. Below 1.9 is unrecoverable. Japan is something like 1.1 and South Korea 1.04. Typically they look to technology to fill the worker shortage. But machines don’t pay taxes to support the social services system. In western countries they are trying mass immigration which dilutes their cultural identity. What we are seeing now in political instabilty and social chaos is just the tipping point of major social and economic changes that will transform the world in a way that we can’t go back. What rights and freedoms you once had are gone as they were just words on paper as is money. What you think you own can be taken away and that includes your children. CV 19 was the catalyst to start this rapid transformation.
I agree that "machines don't pay taxes" but at the same time, "machines do not receive a salary".
That means there is room for Companies to pay for the gap on taxes, from not using workers anymore. Companies profits have skyrocketed for years.
Subscribe to my newsletter if you want to build a big business: www.dailyentrepreneur.com/subscribe
"Supercarriers aren't good for protecting sea lanes"
They can plug holes -- very big holes, actually -- in land-based air force coverage of sea lanes. The Straits of Malacca aren't very big, that's kind of the point, and they're even smaller at Mach 3.
Do you expect any of these supercarriers to be decommissioned anytime soon?
When do you expect the pirates to start appearing?
Do you expect us not to respond like Roosevelt - "Pericardis alive, or Raizuli dead" to any Captain Philips situation, in the future?
@xan kon I think his argument is that without naval coverage from the United States, Chinese export trade (and economy) collapses, because the Chinese navy can't operate all the way to Europe. Even worse, without a navy capable of operating as far as the Persian Gulf / Africa / Australia, China can't even keep their materials imports going, even the Middle Eastern oil that keeps their lights on.
The problem seems to be, regular working-class Americans see globalism as a bad deal: we pay a lot in taxes for our military, we give up our lives in places like Iraq, and we end up unemployed because our factories get shut down and shipped off to China. Most Americans really don't want to be "the world's policeman", especially on these terms.
Worse, it looks like our freedoms (the American Way) are under attack by the Chinese Way. Chinese media is full of lies and misinformation (like its denial of the Tienanmen Square massacre in 1989), and US media seems to be pushed the same way. China is pushing (and purchasing) governments like Justin Trudeau's, to go stamp on freedom and go authoritarian. China is pushing drugs into our country, which kills far more Americans than the wars we've been fighting. Every indication is that wherever Chinese influence spreads -- like Hong Kong -- freedom withers and dies. This is giving us a VERY bad impression of the Chinese government.
What could help?
- Freeing Hong Kong. Specifically, let Jimmy Lai and anyone else involved in the umbrella movement, out of jail.
- Hold democratic elections in Hong Kong, free from any interference from Beijing. If this doesn't happen, there's absolutely no way that America will hesitate to send any fleet invading Taiwan, to the bottom of the sea.
- Stop supporting drug manufacture and smuggling in North America.
- Close down the concentration camps in Sinkiang, if you don't want us to start calling it East Turkmenistan and pushing for its independence.
This will do for a start.
Fantastic conversation
thanks for listening
Excellent. Well spoken, well articulated.
I've read a couple of Peter's books and know his perspective well. Good questions, Aaron.
Thank you!
pretty much on point, as a chinese i find him amazing, keep up the good work.
Great interview guys, always enjoy Peter's insights.
I also like 'end of the world' part. I'm prepared !!
@@qqx154 ua-cam.com/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/v-deo.html OHH Peter
"Maybe this is overly reductive"
I'm not entirely convinced we're worried enough about that, here.
If things are as unstable as all this, history could go chaotic real fast.
Oh it is going to be really bad
His numbers about the boarder are way off. 2000 miles / 1,000,000 in the army alone with 4/1 support. We could deploy 125 infantry for every mile of boarder. That would seal it pretty tight.
I saw the math as really bad on that statement as well.
@@sheldo8083 And he claims to be good at math! Kind of degrades much of his credibility about much of what he says. Remember he makes money with his books and speculations. He is not a professional analyst. He is an entertainer. IMHO
You folks are forgetting that many of your militaries are stationed elsewhere.
Subscribed from suggestion of a commenter on another post that highly recommended you.
thanks for subscribing!
The fact that Japan is an emerging naval power would have made the old war generation very nervous.
A 2000 mile border with a soldier every “couple of miles” would only require 1000 soldiers, not our “entire military”
The age of free American protection is over. Now America charges a subscription.
This conversation is fascinating!
35:25 I drink your dollar milkshake 💵 🥤
I interviewed him a little over a year ago. It's starting now huh?
ua-cam.com/video/yQ9QePyJAR0/v-deo.html
thx guys. just ordered the book.
33:07
I can at least tell you that nuclear capacity is not going to scale well for the chinese. A prime reason is that the models of reactors they field are based on US and French designs. Those designs have not been altered because the chinese do not have the expertise. This means that a slew of parts to bring any of these online or even maintenance requires parts sourced from the USA since the blueprints call for several specific parts that the chinese can't manufacture themselves. They pay out the nose for these components, and it is not a fast order to fill... relying on especially small, especially vetted manufacturers that specialize in the hyper regulated paper-trail-for-every-material type of fabrication. Additionally, with the aging workforce and the relative demise of the skilled machinist, I don't think there's much capacity to expand production at the rate they're going to require to offset their imminent crisis.
Outstanding!! Challenging ahead!
this vid is gonna get MAD VIEWS this month
😁😁😁
One of the best interviews I seen of him.
thanks! did a lot of prep
Robotics and automation don't fix the demographics problem not only because of the demand side of the equation but because your country will not be the only one decoupling their production capacity from their labour force size, so your economy will be in the same terms in comparison with the rest. In the case of China, this decoupling will hurt them more than help them because their huge workforce is one of their strategic moats right now.
Yay, "looking forward" to what's coming ahead... 😱😰😜 Thank you for this interview Aaron. 🙏
@26:00: Is the expected fall in productivity this high, that legalization is not at least a possible solution?
@Aaron Watson Business
This is not you, right?
Thank you for the content. I appreciate the conversation. If I may, I think it was a bit too much editing. Just some love-based constructive criticism. Be well.
Also, pretty please stabilize your video.
I'm a half-assed sci fi writer, world-building for hard near future sf. The future is exciting and is so^2 scary. Thank God we're not doing all this crap with SSTOs...
We know that, what is more interesting is when does it end?
Nice intro, Aaron.
thanks!
Extremely well done interview. The questions brought out Peter’s best.
Thanks!
Great interview! Probably the best I’ve seen with Peter.
very kind. thank you Kraig!
Good interview
What's the website to sign up for the free newsletter? Why is this not in the description or show notes?
zeihan.com/newsletter/
@@AaronWatsonGeo got it thanks
11:30 Had we handled Afghanistan differently, Putin would've thought twice, maybe thrice before doing what he did
Peter is awesome
What if we ended the drug war and deprived the cartels of the income?
Taking a look at data around cannabis decriminalization here in America might help...I'm all for ending prohibition.
Fantastic Interview - Peter never disapoints !!
The view from the top is everything going to be shitty downhill no matter which direction you go
Change is always difficult. Look at the internet. It is wondaful and awful all at the same time. As goes the past will go the future. Forever changing without regard for good or bad.
My thoughts exactly. He needs to think to practice “the New Clear ..Physics!” LOL.
Being in a global business...I doubt the end of safe transportation. Much of his theories hang on this one idea....
The interviewer asked Peter stupid questions. He got an exclusive access to the world's most prominent political scientist and economist but screwed up.
Damn good and deep conversation
thanks!
Treaty of Westphalia? (pretty sure that no one knows that that was in 1648) A bit weird. That was a peace treaty between countries at war. The EU is not at war with itself. In the meantime there have been many important treaties in the development of the EU like the Maastricht treaty, which laid the foundation of the monetary union, the Euro, closer economical ties and a common safety policy. That was in 1992. Peter likes to think that Europe has not developed, and the only development it has known was superimposed by the USA. While an important ally, that is not 100% true.
And they don’t want to be at war, that is his point. Putin is freaking them out after they decided to NOT take security seriously for over 30 years. The bear is at their door, the USA is not going to send American ground troops so they (EU countries) have to work together to have a chance
You have got to think for your self before you actually speak aloud. Maastricht is nothing more than a paper agreement that offers nothing.
The current defense policies are real and not paper based as they are dealing with the reality of a Russian invasion.
European countries to date cannot even agree on immigration and this defense alliance is new and real.
Waiting impatiently for my copy. It's finally on its way today, Wednesday 15 June
I have to question anything he says when he tries to present Joe Biden as a competent leader.
Right. Especially when he says he actually remembers the cold war. I'm not sure the guy even remembers what planet he's on most days.
I'm not sure the US will tap oil/gas outputs for Europe when the US gov is reluctant to tap it for it's own people
It's already happening. Oil tankers are already being sent.
Granted they will need more than what can be sent by tankers. Europe will need some pipeline from the middle East or in the case of Germany will they go back to burning coal?
@@fightsports66 TY for the cogent reply. My focus is not only on distribution but also on production. Else the laws of supply and demand will make oil products even more expensive
@@fightsports66
Europe will tap into its own gas reserves, Oil, important from North America and Africa/Asia.
None of this will be overnight but it will happen. Even if Russia sells them the energy for the next 5 years it will still happen. Once Russia threatens Europe the game is over.
Hey,
"Space:1999" called... they want their wardrobe back.
RE: Peter's comments on carriers - the USA is just restarting its frigate program (Constellation-class)
why does your video start up in HD mode ? to costly of my data cost
Great stuff here
19:30 did you say we're keeping Eastern Hemisphere Nations out of the western hemisphere? When China is the greatest trade partner with many countries in Latin america? Apparently Brazil is holding out.
Good interview!
Referencing the Chinese collapse, isn't that when nations become most dangerous? If you have nothing to lose, and your population are hungry and getting angry, doesn't it make perverted sense to create an existential crisis, by starting a war with a neighbour, or going "all in" by taking on the world? You get to lower the population, especially your dissenters, create a cohesive nationalism AND enter a state of war production that keeps people occupied instead of protesting.
Maybe China's cultural MO isn't the same as the rest of us, but I'm relying on "human nature" and historical lessons that I can remember.
Thank you!
I find Zeihan interesting and his views insightful. However, he is always smiling and laughing, which with the bad news he brings he should be substantially more sober minded about this grim message he spreads. Nevertheless, if he is just using his book and lofty insights as a means for popularity and/or money making I can see the sense of laughter he adds to his shocking proclamation.
I feel lied to. The thumbnail promises us Johnny Unitas Peter Zeihan, but instead we get Joe Namath Peter Zeihan. What is life?
zeihan is the last person on earth who doesn't believe america to be an empire.
How does Peter Zeihan's intelligence collection and analysis differ from U.S. intelligence agencies' intelligence collection and analysis? Who gets it right or wrong more?
100 intelligence professionals said, Hunter's laptop was part of a Russian disinformation campaign.
@@formernavyspook They obviously knew better. They just lied. Anything useful the intelligence agencies know gets classified. That is why it is pointless for them to release anything to the public. The public's proper attitude to any such release is very healthy skepticism.
"If you want to be a part of the US's security system, you now have to pay for it"
Doesn't that make it more stable? Isn't that the only thing that makes sense, now that we're no longer Last Man Standing after WW2?
Don't American workers have a point, wanting the global order not to be balanced on their backs anymore?
Yep, these coming decades all the globalised export economies and such are theoretically gonna come back to America, and they will be a big winner after a rocky transition.
"As Australia is finding out" When has Australia not pulled its weight in our alliance with the US? We've been involved in every major US war for over a century, more than any other country.
Historical Note on the US Navy
at the end of WW2.
What Peter is saying about the NAVY
having the ability to control the sea lanes is true.
The Navy had about 1000 capital ships.
To support them there were about 5,000
ships. So we possessed a lot of trained seamen to operate enough sea power to control the oceans.
There may be a trend to develop a new kind of aircraft carrier. instead of every plane being manned by a pilot think of a mother ship with one way kamikaze drones.
The mother ship can be vertical take off and landing type. But it has the endurance to take the switchblade/kamikaze where they can fulfill their fate and take out that which needs taking out.
The mother ship is a kind of aircraft that we had extensive experience with.
Back in the early days of WW2 we sent a couple dozen B-25 Mitchell bombers off the deck of the USS Hornet. The USS Enterprise was its escort.
This was the Tokyo raid in about April 1942.
I’m concerned desperate people will do desperate things. Desperate nations may also take desperate action. Too bad we can not work for everyone’s best interests. Human factor is a wild card .
been following his work since 2017. though his assessments had but very few holes, most of his predictions seemed unlikely. The Russian one came true. Its China's turn, time will tell how right/wrong he was. His books are a good read though especially the first one they're light on details but does a great job of condensing the info that he wants to get across.
China has a demography problem, food problem, manufacturing problem, energy problem and the list goes on and on.
China is about to start a war with India over water rights as it has built dams that will affect the main Indian water supply network. India will respond to this by blocking Chinese oil imports that come via tankers.
@@bighands69 Yeah, yeah. Nothing of what you said is a real fact...😂😂😂
Just to correct Zeihan on the Sinaloa cartel. Sinaloa is actually led by “El Mayo” Zambada. “El Chapo” is more popular and he’s up there in the leadership, but he is not the leader of Sinaloa.
Source: “El Traidor” by Anabel Hernandez
Do you guys ever study cycles or more to the point the science of cycles?
5:40 is that 4-5 million b/d ?
39:30 that's a really good question you put forward
The question I would like Peter to answer is "When will Taiwan invade China?"
Never. If Taiwan can wait it out.
He sees it as increasingly unlikely
Interesting question. :)
Sounds like in the mid to late 2030's the followers of Chiang Kai-Shek will abandon the island of Formosa to restore order to mainland China. :D
He pretty much stated the scenario is very unlikely.
If we keep sending drunk dementia patients to Taiwan we might actually see the Taiwanese people vote for a faster merger with China. The people have long since wanted the outside influence of the US and China to go away and let it happen naturally. If it looks like a war will unfold with their island being ground zero don’t discount the people trying to avoid it. If reading that makes you feel uncomfortable I’d recommend you look for some stats on what the people of Taiwan think, I’m certain you will be shocked because we’ve been force fed propaganda about the situation.
I saw a similar mental shift with my Gen Z Russian friends. At the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine they were shocked and embarrassed and mad at Putin. After they’ve watched the rampant bigotry against Russians on top of the never ending flow of bizarre lies and war propaganda their view is a complete 180. They’re disgusted with Europe and the western media as a whole plus they’ve had time to learn about the atrocities committed against Ukrainian Russian speakers since 2014. This has them feeling proud of Putin.
We in the west need to get away from these military industrial complex and deep state narrative lies and start behaving like good faith actors. Oh and prosecute Fauci and his medical mafia is a must too.
Countries Which benefited from China cheap development of roads, rail and infrastructure have alot to celebrate since this wont happen again in the near future. Kenya did change dramatically from this and we are 20yrs ahead of others who waited and now they will see.
Africa is going to be interesting. I think America can take some of that… Their workspace is shrinking as tribes become more pronounced then state lines
Sri Lanka got a lot of Chinese aid / investment ~ but that seems to have gone pear-shaped.
Unless those countries have an economy to use those roads they will offer nothing and just be roads to nowhere.
@@bighands69 infrastructure has unblocked our economies, offcourse you need to have already a good economy to move to the next level Kenya was already on its way up, we needed a booster. By 2030 Kenya will be like Singapore
I had the same question (can't China just AI/robot their way out?) , so thanks for asking.
The problem with this is why would you not bring production back to your own country and save the shipping cost. Also more advance 3D printers will democratize manufacturing in the future. Maybe we all have a 3D printer in our house and instead of buying products you buy plans and your printer prints it. The future is going to be very interesting.
China is an export economy and they have not automated their manufacturing and rely on human hands. They can talk about this in terms of big sweeping statements but they have not put the effort in.
@@bighands69 furthermore, 100s of millions of unemployed and starving Chinese workers who have been replaced by robots would quickly lead to the downfall of the ccp.
Peter's point on China's Covid vaccine is well taken; no wonder that lockdowns are more strict and frequent. Given a low birth rates, the regime certainly does not want to see higher death rates.
Brilliant. Thanks