Peter Zeihan: The end of the old world order, and what happens next
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- Опубліковано 4 тра 2024
- On the hottest day in British weather history Stig Abell sat down to speak with Peter Zeihan. Peter Zeihan argues that we are heading towards a period of deglobalisation, with ensuing chaos and disaster. In his book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, he argues that we're entering a new chapter where regions will have no choice but to sustain their own food, source their own energy and fight their own battles.
www.amazon.co.uk/Peter-Zeihan...
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The world according to Peter Z.
You scare me sometimes. :(
No
Video on UA-cam called "LEVEL" by Eric Dubay. Also " THE NEXT LEVEL " by Martin Liedtke is worth checking out.
poppy bush new world order
I'm an appliance repairman. Please PLEASE make household appliances go back to analog. Nothing breaks down faster than a computer controlled appliance. Analog ones last longer and are easier to fix.
Analog everything is easier to fix except for things that can only be made to be digital..I'm sure some schmuck has already made a digital ball peen hammer..
Capitalism needs planned obsolescence...
but what if i want to tweet from my fridge and take pics for insta on my dishwasher?
Yes, but it is more expensive, and do you want more inflation?
@@swankydanky8025 how else could I possibly know if the casserole dish came clean without social media connectivity and a camera? Am I supposed to open the dishwasher like some kind of savage? Ha ha ha
I work for an auto manufacturer. And the chip shortage is actually beginning to alleviate. Personal opinion, we shouldn't go back on tech but things such as social media need regulation, those are private companies that need to quit the destructive pressure they are putting on our societies.
Nice comment
We used to pay for a newspaper, and most people didn’t read the paper. Now it’s “free”. (Propaganda). It’s annoying like pollution but you can ignore it
You hit one of my hot buttons "Social Media" divisiveness, especially in politics. The other three are Economic erosion of the Middle Class, Immigration and its costs, and finally the Military and Foreign Policy idiots and their endless wars.
regulation by who? by the state? that is the last thing a free society needs.
Having said that the existence of social media has a valuable reason to destroy a free society, at least the way it operates
Social media IS being regulated. And that’s the problem. No more gov’t interference.
Good discussion! While I sit here on my computer listening I had a bit of a flash back... 1975, November at -37* in the Yukon, Canada. My husband and I moved out to our new log home (that we built - 25 miles from nearest town) at 10 pm with a 10 day old baby.... the doors had gone on the house that morning and our stove had been lit for the first time (dbl 45 gal drum wood stove) at about 6 am. We were, without a doubt about as smart as a pair of hammers. Today 47 yrs later, four kids long grown, we laugh at 6 yrs without power, no phones no running water and remember how much fun we had within our small community. We had goats, horses, pigs, chickens, turkeys and broiling hens and an acre of garden with a great greenhouse! - and as we were the first to get power - about 8 kids in and out every weekend. We still don't have TV to this day. We still heat by wood and we have a creek that flows the length of our property. We are a bit older and maybe a bit smarter... but we know we will do just fine whatever comes down the line. We are not afraid for us but we are afraid for our family that lives in the US and other parts of Canada. That is when we will miss being able to communicate and know how everyone is. We still have an amazing community!
Thanks for sharing your story. I was born in 81 and can remember “harder” times than now. My grandma had some crazy stories of snow on her bed in the winter. She lived on a farm and slept in the same bed as her siblings to keep warm. And ppl just handled that as the times. It was hard but you found your grit. Thanks again.
This story reminds me of that blackout in Ontario back in the late 90's/early 00's- cant remember the year (small comparison to your story since it only lasted days), but it was so memorable because of how communities/neighbors came together and had really fun times despite the inconvenience! ❣
Thanks for sharing your story, :) definitely gave me a ray of hope -been feeling all doom-n-gloomy lately 🤗👌
Say hi to Frank for me at Muk Tuk
@@vanessagrant4042 Sounds like my Ukrainian immigrant great grandparents coming to Saskatchewan around 1900 and having 15 kids, 12 lived. Dirt floor house on the prairie, farming the harsh landscape. Sounds like a brutal way to start a life at any age. There's a good Canadian heritage moment tv PSA on the Indigenous first nations helping teach the Eastern European immigrants about how to live in Canada in the wilderness. Canada still has the largest diaspora of Ukrainian immigrants outside of Ukraine.
@@timrobertson2484 Will do! I don't see him often as I am the same distance out on the southern side of Whitehorse... but he doesn't look too bad! I will call him. He used to be our neighbour out here!
It’s hot where I live, this week. I am sitting beside my parent’s (long gone, BTW) 1947 Electohome electric fan, helping me to keep cool. It still works flawlessly. Take that, planned obsolescence !
Peter is a great storyteller. His confidence in North America is palpable.
It almost inspires in me a sense of patriotism, *despite* all that I know regarding the Deep State and shadow government!
…and that's precisely why you should take him with a grain of salt. reality does not tend to tell good stories. people take bits of reality and a story emerges. if something is a very good story, chances are that a lot of stuff has been omitted that you ignore at your own peril
Maybe palatable.
He is a bit optimistic that's true, I think we're going to have to work hard and be smart to stay on top. But I do also get a sense of pride both in the US, but also as North Americans hearing Zeihan speak. I do believe his vision of a closer more united North America is not just a good story, but a great way forward and goal for all North Americans. So yah its a great story, and it might not come true, but that's up to all of us, and we should pursue it as a strategy cause his story ends up quite well for the US.
This is what strategy is, stories about the future you simulate and plan for, obviously the worst plans cannot be changed as reality is incredibly chaotic, but still making plans is important, and you usually cannot make plans or goals with 100% certainty. Zeihan's ideas should be taken more as a simulated future, just like war games, its not nearly as realistic as actual war, but there is no denying there are benefits to practicing and simulating such things. But yah, Zeihan underestimates China and overestimates the US sometimes, that being said, we still have our hat in the game and a real shot at coming out on top, China's success or failure are not guaranteed, and the same goes for the US, it depends on us.
I am an Economics prof. YOUR insights are REMARKABLE. I LOVE your vids, insights, conclusions. Keep up the great work!
Now you are properly awaken not woke or broke;)
He’s wrong… a lot … I just watched some of his vids from 10 years ago, he’s worse than Cramer.
@@AFuller2020 he predicted the invasion of Ukraine in his books more than 10 years ago
Economics is bunk.
Abell here conducts the best interview of Peter Zeihan this year.
Abell asks the right questions. Peter answers them directly. Quite a show by both parties.
Thank you for this interview. Important points were made of which I was previously unaware: both questions and answers were en pointe and Peter Zeihan's delivery second to none.
Thanks Times radio for bringing Zeihan to the mainstream audiences!
oh yes, I agree. This was better than a slice of cheesecake after dinner
“Try to stay cool over there” said someone to an Englishman. That statement in itself shouldn’t be overlooked as a sign of the times we are now in and where we are headed.
There was a big heatwave in the UK the week this was recorded, peak temperatures of over 40 °C (104°F).
I plan to be pushing up daisies in the near future.
Can either mean heat or the fact he was so casually dressed for a formal event and standards continue to drop.
So have you English types started growing grapes and producing wine yet? You know, like you did before the great cool down in 1100 that made it impossible to grow grapes in England. And killed all the Vikings living in Greenland because they refused to adopt the survival strategies of the pagan natives who hunted seals and whales. Are you that warm yet?
Sheeesh 🔥
Great to see/hear Peter getting a (relatively) mainstream UK audience.
An analog car is perfectly fine. I've been driving one for the past 8 years. It works perfectly.
The next car I own will be one as well. I have zero interest in anything else. And I want to learn how to troubleshoot and maintain it myself.
Having spent about 4 decades driving and maintaining cars from the 60's to 90s (I still had analog cars in the 90s), I thoroughly disagree. My brother and I, who both maintained our own vehicles, enjoy exchanging emails about the joys of old cars with their endless problems and short lifespans.
@@GaryL3803 short life spans? Weren't hey Fords, lol? My family members with old analog cars swear by them. Easy to maintain, lower maintenance.
holy, you actually got Peter Zeihan on the show? That's awesome! You should have him on the show every day tbh.
I cannot take somebody seriously who pronounces it, "NŪ'cue'ler". He was also dead wrong on the West, he thought as Putin did that we would split and scatter
@jim we do not all, no.
If all he ever does is paint broad strokes and he's usually wrong.... what's to differentiate that from simple entertainment?
Peter was correct in predicting the Russian invasion of Ukraine so take him seriously he is telling you the driving obsessions of Moscow he can't predict if they are 2 rotten to achieve there goals
He rightly stated that Moscow would spend its last breath on reaching the narrowing of the central European Plain
He points out demographic trends that are destroying certain countries like Germany and Italy and Russia
Amazing to think China is the worst oldest and most decayed of country's i would like to think Ukraine can win but if you check out Germany they are almost entering the Russian camp and the gas has only been cut of for 2 weeks
By December and the lights are going of the first deaths from cold are on the news what do you think the Germans are going to do ???
Italian government fell today
How will there election go?
There is a lot to play for
And most of you have no idea what it is like to play hard ball
Churchill did and everyone is on his back now but our very wealth health and freedom over the last 75 years are because he could play Hard ball and keep his sole
@@billturner6564 he also insisted we (Yankees) would not intervene at all, and was completely wrong. Yes it's nice to hear a confident voice, confidence is not "correctness" let alone competence. He's also still new to my awareness and I've not yet made my mind up on him; I'll listen for sure, but I don't believe him simply because he said so
He has over a hundred UA-cam appearances in the last six months to sell his book. He has a lot of good points but the hair flipping and attitude makes me think he's in love with the smell of his own farts. Btw, nice the guy dressed up for the interview...lol
I remember watching & listening to Mr. Zeihan years and years ago, it's amazing how spot on this all has been. Very valuable.
Incredibly spot on for China and Argentina. Oh wait...
@@JuliusG73 What did he predict for today and when?
Such as?
The guy is completely misinformed about china snd russia. Hes wrong all the time. Unless you want to hear someone continue on about how theyre both going to explode and wither to nothing 3 years ago. Hes doing a good job of making people blame the cartels, which are CIA controlled, so that way the US can invade and overthrow central and south america when they decide to ditch the exploiting dollar... under the guise that theyre saving everyone from the cartels... that they profit from. Hes making money from an intelligence agency in america thats for sure.
@I dig my style he predicted the Crimean invasion down to the exact year 8 years prior to it happening
Good to see Zeihan on times radio. His channel is worth a look
Times Radio 📻 great news & hearing both of you having a good dialogue is so much more appreciated .🇺🇸🌎
9:24-“…we’re American and we’re going panic about the bumps in the road, that’s just how we are…”
Truer words seldom spoken!
So very true....but not necessarily a bad characteristic trait for us to have collectively.
It's not a small bump in the road, it's a gigantic sink hole!
@@StompingRabbits a sink hole on the east side of the map...
I don't consider an inevitable and bloody civil war, that tears the country apart and results in the Secession of Texas and the South, a bump!
Amazing to me how timid we are. We are not even free to buy a firecracker to celebrate our, "freedom". Too Scary!!!
They should have left phone lines alone. We need them as a secondary back up structure. Redundant systems need to be in play.
And who would pay for maintaining the infrastructure of a dead industry? And why are fiber optic cables worse?
I just came across Peter Zeihan and think most of his ideas are very well founded and he's quite an interesting individual since he comes from the world I have worked in and that is predictive modelling of future processes, systems, governments and companies. While I certainly do not have the background Peter has, one thing I wanted to bring up is that he is really talking about interconnectivity between suppliers worldwide just to produce and manufacture goods. This is something Jarad Diamond discussed in his book Collapse many years ago. It is one of the 11 factors in which societies collapse so I recommend those of you interested in cooperation and interconnectivity going back to ancient civilizations as being a very crucial element in keeping "the lights on."!
One of the best global energy, security and geopolitical forecaster/strategist today.
I am reading the book now. About a third of the way through it. It is great. and very timely.
Love Peters work, perfect clarity of well researched thought, delivered with riveting charisma. However, he tends to make predictions with too much certainty. Knowing exactly how the graph was and is, can only give you a range of possiblity, and even those expectations can be shattered. No one really knows what can or will happen, but someone's always going to call it, since so many attempt predictions.
Price to pay for not pro-actively managing the human population. To reach the 1st billion, it took from the beginning of humanity till 1900. So by any reasonable estimate, it took close to 500,000 years or more for the human population to reach the 1st billion. Since 1900, we have added another 6 billion and counting. So we added another 6 billion in just 121 years? Considering a finite amount of resources (including air and water) and land, what makes one think there will be no adverse impact of continued population growth?
Thats exactly what I think if I listen to Peter. Yes most stuff is a compelling chain of logic thoughts but it is no way as certain that it will happen that way. If he would be more nuanced he would not have the audience. We will see in a decade or two how it played out.....
@Ruzo2022 not a super relevant comment, but according to Peter, the population is collapsing, despite the exponential growth of the past. @Chris Wusel I think he has a better idea then most, but noone can compute every factor, time will tell, but like he said we need to implement solutions now, so they can have the time needed to see positive results before the disasters.
Yes, I can find his determinism frustrating (the interview with Ark Research is a good example). He tends to only allow for his opinions but that personal quirk aside, his evolving thesis is compelling and can't be ignored by voters and the de-growth folks at Davos. For another equally important and compelling viewpoint dive into Jeff Snider's work on the Eurodollar and how little we understand the financial system and how much of what central banks do is merely try to drive sentiment shifts but have no other controls including "money tightening and loosening" which despite terms like "money printing" isn't happening in anywhere like what people imagine.
@@Ruzo-yc2wb A good deal of Peter's insights express a decrease of population growth is coming.
✨be here now do no harm help others be still close eyes listen to your breathing✨
"Try to stay cool." Best four word summary of his EOTW guidance - best I've heard, actually!
I just finished his latest book. Zeihan’s knowledge of global economy, energy, agriculture, politics, geography and their various intersections is encyclopedic. His earlier works in the trilogy are downright prophetic. I’m really surprised this guy hasn’t gotten more publicity.
It is because he lacks of knowledge. He is just making money selling his talks and books. He just basically making BS at this point.
@@chrisp7110 anything specific you want to mention?
@@yourchannel4659 Thinking that China will be isolated in the world is his greatest mistake. Also , exploited countries like Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia and Brasil may not automatically align with the US.
@@chrisp7110 He was right about the shale revolution, he was right about the Russian land grab in Ukraine, he was right about the re-industrialisation of the US, he was right about the food crisis and the breakdown of globalisation… Not a bad track record, particularly considering how many variables there when it comes to predicting geopolitical and economic trends.
@Online Girlfriend That’s the paid shill who makes CCP propaganda videos for dissemination to western audiences on UA-cam, right?
Excellent!
My wife runs a preschool I would love for Peter to come and tell the children some of his great stories.
A new Guru of modern economics and globalization, just brilliant. Peter Zeihan obviously knows what he is talking about but he has the additional ability to put it across clearly. Well done Sir, well done indeed.
Oh dear
At any pitch/sales meeting, he was their closer. Worked at it and likes to talk.
His book is excellent. I highly recommend it
An interesting conversation, but I was very surprised that anyone could think that the problems associated with giving up smartphones and converting back from digital to analogue are in any way important compared with countries unable to import enough energy and food, and people freezing and starving.
I think the main point to draw from this conversation is that the broad based global prosperity that the world has taken for granted for the past several decades is ending. We we still have these advanced technologies, but they will be more expensive and much less obtainable for people outside of North America, Western Europe, Japan, and Australia. If Peter is correct (and I think he probably is) the world is going to look more like pre-1945 ten years from now. The geopolitical conditions that made the United States and Western Europe the richest parts of the world will reassert themselves as the rest of the planet slides back into poverty and subsistence levels of living.
John 3:16
King James Version
16 For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.
Also medication and medical technology. I'm suddenly looking less forward to growing old :l
People freeze and starve, as animals do in nature. It up to those countries and communities to mitigate that, should they do choose
There is no sign poverty is increasing anywhere
how refreshing to follows an intelligent discussion
I so want to return to the population levels, lack of globalisation, and cultural (not necessarily racial) homogeneity of the 50s and 60s. Patriotism, self belief, innovation, courage, moral strength and sense of duty. Strong borders, strong community policing, self sufficiency, manners and standards. Fairness to all and judging by personal character not arbitrary group. Imagine that but with modern technology and sensibilities (I’m not a fan of some old school values like racism and your wife is your property). Climate change just would not be an issue.
Mogznwaz, you know you are living in s nostalgic fantasy, don't you. Those "wonderful times" had a dark underbelly.
You do realize that period is not what you have imagined in your head that it was and there's no point in wanting to go back to a period of time where the world was a different place, but people were the same in many crucial ways. Only the surface stuff and social cues were different, everything else is pretty much unaffected.
@@alexiskiri9693 I'd rather have a prosperous and stable society with a "dark underbelly", than one that is itself the dark underbelly.
I think that myself sometimes. I've talked to friends my age and we wish that our grandkids, especially, would be able to grow up in the world we grew up in. Yes, it wasn't all rainbows and puppydogs by any means, but there wasn't the civilizational decay you see in so many big cities. Most importantly, there was an attitude of optimism - people had hope for the future and were willing to work for it. People talked to each other. The values you mentioned were all very real. People believed, rightly or wrongly, that problems were solvable. Now, too many of the younger people seem to be giving up. Things don't make a better world. People do.
@@chico9805 Exactly. It’s as if the very worst traits of humanity are being encouraged and rewarded - back then self discipline and duty were real things and that encourages you to be better and more resilient which is a good thing.
I use old Tec as much as possible it last better and can be repaired there is nothing wrong with taking a step back!
great content thanks
I really learn a lot from Peter Zeihan, Thank you.🙏
What a great expression of accessible insight without the snooty intellectual arrogance that one often sees in some conversations.
I love Peters pragmatism and geography and demographic focused viewpoints.
I LOVE GIBLETS
Why can’t we have the option for non smart items. Appliances , cars, phones etc.
All hail Peter Zeihan - talking with confidence does not make you right.
He does not distinguish between conjecture and truth, not ever.
Neither do you so what are yout talking about exactly?
@@bighands69 - err, I don’t understand your point, can you give me an example of where I have not distinguished between conjecture and truth?
@@bdjshwbwhdhh1991 can you give me an example of where Zeihan has not distinguished between conjecture and truth ?
@@DeadNoob451 - well, err, not ever. Listen to what he says, he never states his ideas about the future as opinion, he always expressed it as fact. So he doesn’t say ‘I think X will happen’, he says ‘X will happen’. When he explains history and causation in the same way, he expresses his interpretations as if they are straightforward facts.
He has a vested interest in doing this because he makes his money by advising huge corporations in the energy sector, and it’s in his interests to make everything seems more understandable and predictable than it actually is. Otherwise his advice would not be worth so much.
Loved this. just subscribed. thanks brother!
Ever since I discovered this guy, I pay close attention to everything he says. I have listened to two of his books on audible and will be starting the third soon.
Are you the one who made the 7/7 documentary
and you haven't noticed he predicts China's downfall every year? 😂😂😂
@@HaraldinChina that's not really what he does at all, but okay 🤪
@@HaraldinChina you not seen what's happening in china?
@@dibdap2373 I live in Beijing. I see what's happening in China every day. Low inflation, massive investment in infrastructure to stabilize the economy, positive indicators from PMI to CPI. Do you see what's happening in Europe?
I take all ideas as possibilities, but I believe nothing until after it has happened.
Couldn’t hear a word he was saying from gazing lovingly at all those books... 😍😉
Would like to see Abell push back more on some of Peter’s comments and ideas. Interesting conversation 🙏🏾🙏🏾
"Man is much closer to being blasted into the another Stone Age than he is to blasting off to Mars." ~ Roy George Cordts
France (and the rest of Europe) actually find comfort in being in a block. It removes conflict from your doorstep to its edges as a big advantage. What it still needs is to start acting as a proper block but the war in Ukraine is pushing us towards it. If things with China get worst, even more.
Individual countries can hardly do it alone but blocks can. Blocks allied to other blocks can too.
Also, the concepts of "slow economy/slow society" and "degrowth economy" could become more mainstream out of necessity.
Ever heard of the saying "like rats fleeing a sinking ship"
Rats fleeing are tryna safe their own lives.
Totally different from states who have an interest trading with other countries and reinforcing one another while fighting a common enemy.
UK will find out soon enough when trying to keep her economy afloat whilst estranging their neighbors by breaking commitments made to EU.
Yup, do go try to reinstate that old Commonwealth, now the Queen is gone, and the old partner countries have new interests.
@@nickelchlorine2753 what do you mean, even marginally relevant. That's a very defeatist little person world view.
@@nickelchlorine2753
According to Peter. the unity that the EU has enjoyed is due to globalization. Which in turn was due to the US policing the world's oceans. It allowed countries to participate and grow because you could get what you need from somewhere. Stuff is made from parts from all over the world. What is happening is that will become harder and harder. For instance,. without natural gas, Germany has stopped producing fertilizer. Without safe oceans. China can't get oil. 80% of their energy is imported from 7,000 miles away. Their Navy is incapable of insuring their safe passage. Study your history and look at Europe in the 15th thru 19th centuries. Conflict over resources. Not saying Europe will descend into war, but it's gonna get weird. Don't look at the last 50 years to see what will happen. The world is changing.
Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin'
And you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'
. Bob Dylan
This was an amazing cast
This is great, thanks
Great content, a peak at the world's logistical function as the grasp weakens. "Glass, China, and Reputation, are easily crack’d, and never well mended.” Ben Franklin
Good interview. Particularly enjoyed use of the words "glaum" and "malthusian".
I noticed the glaum too and I immediately thought Malthusian before the host even said it.
@@bill4263 I honestly thought glaum just local vernacular. First time I heard it out in the "wild". Cheers.
Finally, a good guest!
ThankQ
Confucius say: "Never trust man who has to pose in front of books."
Confucius clearly a dope.
@@gerardle8230 Did you read that in a book somewhere?
my feelings are never trust a politician who poses in front of a wall of flags
@@bevtuft3572 agreed
"The idea of producing goods for yourself sounds great until you want something that is more advanced than yarn."
Companies like Apple, Microsoft, GM, GE, Ford, Dell, Johnson and Johnson, Coca Cola and so on all have the resources to produce goods for them self.
Apple is sitting on $200 billion worth of cash investments and we are to believe they cannot set up production in the US to cover them self for items like microchips.
What a load of nonsense.
@@bighands69 iPhones, PCs, cars, and washing machines aren't made of cash. The supply chain of base materials does not exist solely in the United States or even the western hemisphere.
@@a-stardesigns1453 or China, or Africa, or Russia, or the middle East.... Who does?
@@pseudoscientist8010 Exactly. That's Peter's argument: the breakdown of globalized supply chains will hurt everyone, some more than others.
Yeah, we resist and cry as we suckle the teet of gobalisation.
excellent as always
Great interview thanks!
Globalization, enforced by the military power of the US and its closest allies, truly began in 1991 and is beginning to obviously break down in 2022. Globalisation is not over yet, but the decline is obvious and real. The reason of this decline has nothing to do with a lack of population based sustainability. The developed world has more than compensate for any reducing population growth with immigration, preferable legal where there is minimal impact on the people of the developed world, but in many cases illegal, with a significant impact on the living standards of the people in those developed countries.
The reason for the decline of globalisation, as with any decline of civilisations, is combination of opposition at the centre and at the periphery. Countries like China, Russia, India and a host of other non-western countries have never liked living in Global world controlled and enforced by the western world. They have always wanted to leave this world order and as globalisation have made them wealthier; it’s more and more possible each year.
The other opposition is within the developed world, globalisation in simple terms means money and jobs have moved from the developed world to the developing world and people have moved from the developing world to the developed world. The big losers in this equation are the working class in the developed world. As a result this large class of people in the developed world are beginning to oppose the globalist world order.
As for the future, it will be something similar to the world as it existed in 1980, the world divided into at least two economic blocks. Some countries will exist in the area between these two blocks, but they will be special cases. The real question is when will this multi-polar world occur. The answer is as soon as the benefit of being out of the western globalist world order becomes greater than staying in the world order. I am uncertain when this will happen, it could be 12 months, it could be 12 years, only time will tell.
Well this "other world order" formed by what you say Russia, China, India will of course not be a coherent block. India will almost definitely seek to destroy China and has some very great opportunities to do so. I still see most of the world only benefitting from the Globalist World Order except for as you say the Developed worlds working class.
@@jasonslifer989 You could be correct. China, for example, still greatly benefits from the US backed globalist world order. As long as China remains part of that trading block any alternative block will having minimal impact, except for countries like Russia, North Korea and Iran. I suspect only if China fully leaves the US backed world order will an alternative be viable. We are in a period of pivotal change, similar to that which spanned 1990 and 1992. When you are in the middle of a whirlpool its hard to determine its shape, size, or even your own position within it.
Phenomenal comment.
Exactly sir. Manufacturing will find new hot spots, low wage countries. And more people will learn English, more outsourcing, more remote work, more multinational companies dominating. India is due for a good few decades. Food and goods will be needed for many more people and energy will be the big constraint. Things will get greener, India and asia will do things in smaller ways but more sustainable. Humans are just so industrious and smart, we will continue to thrive
@@MrKongatthegates Industrious, yes, but when things start to breakdown is when war takes over. The hard choices are coming and can Germany hold it together enough and sacrifice for UKR. With Nukes keeping war at bay, Putin can play the long game. The US on the other hand could have solved so many issues with Nat Gas but we haven't had a real energy policy for decades now and that has kept us in the status quo.
I’m an American in Denmark, and it would seem that Denmark has aligned itself with the U.S. I’m guessing Greenland has something to do with it.
the danes have been in the americans block since ww2. they will continiue to be so, as long as the empire stands. when the empire falls, europe will be its own enitity
@@eirikarnesen9691 - not to mention Sweden and Finland joining NATO also brings them into the US sphere.
Greenland is a strategic necessity that genuinely can't be understated. It is the single largest determining factor in who controls the post ice arctic trade routes. When the US offered to buy it the oil wasn't our objective since it can't even be drilled yet. It's the strategic implications of the landmass itself.
Probably.
Did that one real estate deal ever go through?
It would be interesting to hear Peter’s view on the future of the country’s of the Pacific Rim, Australia, New Zealand & Pacific Islands.
"Courage is the power to let go of the familiar."
Thanks for wearing a shirt, Peter. I'm working class but I wear a (polo) shirt (and shorts) when I'm outside "le Village Naturiste". 🇨🇵
Peter's an American! We're very casual and I think he was at home - have seen that backdrop many times. You should see what some of us Americans wear to work from home. Have a friend who stayed all day in her pajamas and was a highly-paid professional! She looked fine from the waist up.
I hope our politicians are taking note of this with everything else going on right now. Thrilled to finally see a UK news outlet cover Peter’s analysis. Seems we have no choice but to finalise the various UK-US trade agreements, else chlorinated chicken and a privatised NHS will be the least of our problems…
we definitely need better food standards
The US is a problem: it's belligerent neoconservative agenda is wreckless and delusional.
Great interview Stig.
Thank you
There's a poster seen in Germany - "Thanks for sanctions, ruble is rolling, Spain buys more Russian gas than ever, France imports more Russian gas than ever before, India is buying gas and oil from Russia and selling it expensively to Germany!"
interestingly that comment is pretty much spot on .It's one big joke being played on all of us.
Because it's in Germany I'm assuming that's just one big long word?
@@kayvee256
Kucheest-Weiss-arbeit-du-hausen
Let's see if there is any Russian oil to sell or a Russian economy in a year or so.
@@el_naif Let's see if there's any European economies that will survive the coming winter, without imploding.
The gas question here in Germany is the main topic in the media. The eco green/liberal coalition Government have even said that nuclear power stations will be kept going as long as needed, which surprised most people
Not True!
Or brown coal mining extension. Germany is already the greatest brown coal mining country of the world with unique technology for that. When the existance is on the line, climate has to stand back....
@@noizW You live in Germany ?
I've admired Zeihan's work for years. He's saying things that our political leadership know, but won't say since they're leading concern is being re-elected.
I'm buying this book.
"American strategic network"
What an interesting way of rebranding the American Empire.
Been good for the last 80 years, and will be even better for the next 80 with the advancement of technology.
@@epicmatter3512 frankly, yeah. Don't see anyone else movin' in to do what we do.
Thinking people should pay attention to what Peter Zeihan and Dr George Friedman say.
They like to be entertained and occupied!
Excellent
Brilliant 👏
Find everything you can with Tom Luongo interviewed, podcasts and UA-cam. He isn’t a WEF fan boy like Peter.
I hate to tell anyone this but Peter Zeihan's prediction is the BEST CASE scenario.
Rare elements …. This dude is on point
Yes please. Analog home appliances please.
Hi Jean, thank you to the inspired tribe, awesome content and this makes so much sense... on every continent there has been horrendous treatment of indigenous people. They can never truly erase history though, thr truth will prevail! A great interview would be Donald Trump himself!!!!! Much love from the sunny Hawkes Bay in New Zealand ❤🧡💛💚
I personally cant wait for the automotive carburetor revolution. Unfortunately people might actually have to learn how to drive without their traction control =/. I also think that consumer electronics could tolerate a slowing down, too many people are going through sub thousand dollar phones in a year, at most two. Viable tech is made obsolete only in its fashion appeal (or through manufacturer shenanigans) Replaceable batteries and memory would be a welcome return imo
That has pros and cons. Some new features are awesome to have and worth the money
Lets start our own car company. And manufacture mechanical-only(except, battery for starter motor, alternator and basic electrical i.e., lights, horn, basic instrument cluster, heater, air conditioner) and watch the pre-orders pile up before our eyes. They're going to want it!
Great 👍
Thx
Absolutely great speaker
This guy Peter said back in March 2022 that Russia and their economy will collapse by the end of May, hmmm, the prices did jump for around 12% in avg in Russia , but in America too, little less but again there are many shortages there.
He also said that Russian technological development will stop due to the lack of semiconductor chips, but the Russians have decided to import them from China until they build a factory of their own that is already under construction.
It seems to me that Mr. Peter predicts a lot subjectively...
Hey mate. Do have more details about the factory? This is the first time I've heard about it
Right. Not completely reliable insight from him.
I will try to find this article again, it was on their nation channel couple months ago.
I rember they said that in couple years they will start to train the workforce and that
construction will be completed in 2030.
They also said that for now they are getting
majority of chips from China.
They also said that for their needs they have enough technological devices on the market and in circulation from which they can process chips for their needs.
He doesn’t take into account that progress isn’t linear. Also, he doesn’t consider that once United a nation, whether China or India, will have technological advances beyond that of the old empire. Especially he ignores the BRI that China has been working towards including BRICS. It is an alternative to a unipolar world.
Without aggression from UK and USA, the global south is rising, Africa is rising, Russia is now independent from the SWIFT system, a reshuffling of the World order doesn’t mean there aren’t alternative alliances based on different values.
BRI doesn’t need MIC, it relies on having relationships being built on individual sovereign interests. That’s the multipolar world with regional hubs and overlapping influences in different areas.
Because Russia never lied before,right? Small suggestion no sector of russian economy is allowed to put out statistics since march so your statement is only based upon government statement...no investor in the world relies purely on that independ statistics are there for a reason
How, after this many years of UA-cam, do men still not check their audio quality before recording?!?!
more Peter pls
I like whatchew say and the way you say it. Thanks
This conversation did a great job on touching on the fragility of our complexity-premised global economy, but I was surprised that energy and material limits didn’t really come up. I would love to hear Peter speak more about how the natural resource limits we are presently facing factors into the deglobalization equation. Complexity and supply chain fragility are not the only issues here.
Prices dictate that, it looks after itself. If you can’t afford it, or aren’t the cheapest place to do business, it doesn’t happen
@@MrKongatthegates I was referring to physical limits- how supply chains and the global economy generally speaking (as it is currently structured) assume and require an endless supply of cheap fossil energy and material resources which are rapidly dwindling and/or which will become too expensive to extract to have economic value. Without those inputs the global economy faces collapse regardless of the geopolitical situation.
@@liebsmusic5347 those inputs wont cease to exist. they will be limited and expensive. I dont see why alternatives and increased production and conservation cant solve the problem. So far we have not run out of one single thing, water, plutonium, oil, diamonds, litium, nitrogen, they are all still available, for a price. Why does everyone assume a collapse is imminent? I dont see that
@@MrKongatthegates I’m basing my opinion on research and writings of people far more knowledgeable than me. There is expensive, and then there is a cost of extraction that is higher than the economic value of the extracted materials at which point extraction is no longer economically viable. Never mind the growing ecological toll to continue energy/material extraction and consumption in the way we have to meet ever growing energy and material demands. My lens about all this is largely through the work of Nate Hagens. I would highly recommend looking into his stuff. He has an incredible podcast called the Great Simplification that goes deep on what he calls the human predicament. Each guest provides their own lens and deep expertise. And he has published some very illuminating papers that synthesize a systems view of the issues we face. If you’re interested, you might also want to look into the work of Arthur Berman, Simon Michaux, and Thomas Murphy among many others. The short of it is that we live on a finite planet, and within that finite system we (“we”) have established an economic system that requires endless growth and ever growing complexity to sustain itself. Endless growth on a finite planet is inherently unsustainable. Energy, ie fossil hydrocarbons, are the primary input to this economy. Without a cheap and endless supply of that, the economy cannot continue as is. Just because we haven’t hit the wall yet does not mean we are not rapidly heading towards it. If you’d like links to papers/interviews/websites let me know.
@@liebsmusic5347 im not into doom and gloomers. People see new developments and go yuck. But the new economy is far better than the one from 100 years ago. The US is underdeveloped compared to europe and parts of Asia. I think we have so so much room and scope to grow.
"Britain has a navy..." HELLO AFRICA - long time no see 💥
Britain can trade with African countries.
Everything your saying you can see it and your so right I totally agree first day watching your videos ive been telling my wife for years you took it back to 83 and what you said was our golden years were everybody made money was my line and about covid being a new era I took a course about the history of religion and man and you totally broke it down like the course amazing wow thank you for your video very uplifting. I honestly thought I was going lil crazy but its not me its our world .
Oeter Zaihan is a great listen honestly. I sometimes hate that what he says make sense because its not always the best news 😅. Well, regardless of what happen I’m sure we’ll see another era of stability again further in the future. These next decades will propably be tough but honestly its so hard to tell what’ll happen
it's so strange that China seems intent on underminng the very global order which give it the stability and security to thrive without existential threat
They see the world very differently than we do in the west.
@@MichealWalls yeah afghanistan was an easy opportunity for china just give the taliban want they want in exchange for minerals the us made a mistake in not propping up the government and getting good preferential trade on those minerals. the west bed a lot to make that country better so it wouldnt have even been unfair.
The thing with China's calulation, if you;re right, is that it relies on a collapse of american power which isnt going to happen. if they just broadly aligned with the us then they'd be one of the world's two superstates harmoniously. its such a missed opportunity
@@MichealWalls they might be building the carriers to engage with american carriers regionally (a massive region though) in coordination with shore based denial systems. They're not yet operationally at blue water navy status in terms of practice. Teh continuous patroling globally of carrier groups is a game only the americans are in. The UK and to a lesser extent france can do it periodically but only one. I agree they're not reasoning like us and I guess they're trying to be what america is in the world now and make the global order in its own image even if its against their interests; if Zeihan is right about the fragility of China without the US dominated global order, that must be whats going on
@@MichealWalls Chinese Carriers still run on conventional fuel though, while American Carriers are nuclear. This makes them terribly vulnerable to supply line disruption and limits their range a lot.
I see it as them having no choice on the matter and delusions of grandeur making that reality easier for them to swallow. Despite having overseen incredible levels of economic growth, the CCP drove China into the ground economically and demographically, and with economic stagnation now and the prospect of total collapse looming, the only way they can remain in power is to turn to ethnonationalism, even if it burns diplomatic bridges. It doesn't help that China always fostered an image of superiority throughout its history as a form of soft imperial power that then in turn gave themselves inflated delusions of grandeur that stagnated their development as a civilization while others passed them by. Just because decisions are made rationally doesn't make them smart decisions.
I think Zeihan is correct overall in his view about deglobalization. I think that one modifying and slightly countervailing factor will be the role that Navies play in protecting vestiges of global trade. During the Cold War and the globalization years, the US and, to a lesser extent, our Allie’s’ navies kept the trade lanes open for national security reasons and to enjoy the benefits of free trade.Let’s face it though. Another benefit was that it allowed our leaders to revel in their hegemonic status while it lasted. This is a major reason we didn’t make the necessary adjustments at the end of the Cold War that could have softened the coming crisis. Our leaders were having too much fun.
We didn’t use our navies for monetary profit directly, but in a Zeihanian world we could. Countries that wanted to trade could pay a toll or not trade. To make this less humiliating, the fee could be paid by shipping companies and billed as “insurance” costs. The US Navy could do this in concert with our allies.
An added benefit of this would be a partial rescue of the tourist industry. Seaside destinations with nice beaches and deep water ports could do especially well for themselves by leasing their ports for foreign navy bases. The revenue would let them buy food, energy, and perhaps some mercenary services to keep the tourists safe from hangry inland natives.
Zeihan has undoubtedly thought about this but is too diplomatic to mention it. Nor will Navy for hire compensate for the demographic collapse that is at the root of his analysis. But it will make a difference at the margin as well as keep the military industrial complex humming for when the next round of globalization arises, probably late in this century.
Interesting and thoughtful observation.
Just keeping piracy at bay is good enough. Dealing with China will take more diplomacy than just sanctions
With such deep understanding of enemy you guys have to have a miracle to win. Wish you very good luck.
Wow!
"As a rule... Another over simplification". Zeehan is a great entertainer, he has definite views. Unfortunately it is easy to question his precepts based upon his lack of in depth questioning of "facts" that he receives and runs with. I listened to him on energy, his acceptance that the "shale oil revolution" could sustain output levels demonstrated his willingness to suspend belief. That said this is how he makes his money, good for him.
Shale has never earned a profit. Ever.
He makes it sound like high levels of consumerism is the best ever but less people consuming unessential things will allow us to leave something to our children.
I think his point is consumerism is what has been driving the world order…if you listen to more of his interviews societies are built on “more”-production and consumptions-it has given us the past amazing 30-50 years. But due to demographic collapse of a great number of “1st world” and developing countries and degloblisation none of our societies are structured for “less”. Capitalism, socialism, communism, any ism you can think of functions with this fact of “more” to generate its progress. That is essentially ending…..and no one has any what we should do. I guess I’m “lucky/fortunate” I am an American given his insights!!
You are free to go back and live as a peasant of you want but do pretend you are not living with consumerism.
You are clearly using a device right now to put up this comment that relies on consumerism. SO stop with the hypocrisy.
great insight, hence it is good for countries to work together
Great Video
FYI. Of those that do deep dives into geopolitics in the alternative media space. Zeihan has the most OPTIMISTIC vision for the West
Maybe for the western hemisphere but not for Europe
@@ManInAHighCastle true
Yes I want my car to be analog! I want a $1 car key not a $500 key that pointlessly locks my engine block when no one I have ever met in my life has had their car stolen. I Don't want ABS brakes that take twice as long to stop because they only brake half the time. I REALLY don't want an idiot computer making decisions for me like when to brake the car. PLEASE give me my analog car back!
That is not how ABS works at all. A tire sliding across the ground has less friction (and thus less braking force) that one that does not.
Otherwise all racecars would lock up their brakes when slowing down in a straight line. They dont though, even without ABS.
Look up "tire friction coefficient". Or just watch a test where people compare the braking distance with and without ABS. I 100% guarantee it wont double the braking distance.
Or just try it yourself (in a safe environment!). Remove the ABS fuse and see if that shortens your braking distance. You will be surprised so make sure you have a lot of space.
They are becoming like space ships!!
What about communal food? Get a good fire going, have a good time with the community, grow our own, eat our own, trade it locally.
bring the community together through food could reduce need for the supermarket chain, and reduce the need for indoor cooking appliances, if we just harness fire... make the gatherings cooler!
We can still have what’s good about our modern world too while gaining back some of what we really miss perhaps? I mean the trade offs should be worth it