Peter Zeihan on who is going to win the US election | 30 with Guyon Espiner Ep.10 | RNZ
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- Опубліковано 17 чер 2024
- Geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan tells Guyon what New Zealand needs to do right now if it wants to survive the end of globalisation, why China's days are numbered, and who's going to win the US election. Watch 30 with Guyon Espiner every Wednesday at 3pm | Subscribe: @RNZVideo
No one is more convinced of Peter’s great intellect than Peter.
Definitely. Total narcissist and con man.
He so confident it makes him believable.
A bit Blinded by his commitment to never trump.
He's an mk ultra clown. sadly too many are brainwashed like him.
It’s so funny how he has a great way of sounding so confident that he can’t be wrong. At least to him anyway. I knew a few like that in college. They would emphasize certain words and could never have any doubts.
I wish one of these days a host would review Peter Zeihan’s past predictions.
He had the timeline for the Ukraine War completely wrong. I think he’s biased on the Trump chances but he’s interesting to listen to and I generally learn a few things each video.
@@DraftedByTheMan He did predict the Ukraine war 10 years ago though. I agree through, he's hit or miss, but always convinced of his own greatness. His point of view is totally CIA
I know. It's almost ridiculously funny. How does Z get these interviews?
@@jasonsstrattoneven a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in awhile. Every once in awhile Z gets it right too. 😂
Any prediction can only be based on what is known and extrapolate. Peter is very specific that his statements are based on what is going on and assuming that nothing changes. So, people make changes. Then his predictions end up untrue.
"Let's just entertain the idea that you are wrong just for a second". That's not Zeihan's outward persona 😅
Trump is likely to win by a landslide
Zeihan is knowledgeable on many things, but political forecasting is not one of them. He’s very much pro-empire class
@@brooklynbud1138 You're a Russian Bot I suppose. Here's the logic. Take 2020 as the starting point. Since then, who's support has increased? Actually, Trump's has decreased. Abortion lost Trump women. Biden's economy is kicking ass. Trump falling asleep in court and using his diaper doesn't help either. Trump meeting with business leaders where he can't put two thoughts together hurt him there.
Except your not doing anything against the Houthi are you. Or the pirates in South East. Just remember you in that part of the world.
@@brooklynbud1138 What makes you think he supports imperialism?
My Criticism of Zeihan isn’t of his farseeing intellect.
He describes existing trends well from a macro perspective.
Where the problem lies is assuming that any existing trend will necessarily end at full force in its most extreme end point.
It’s true that it may, but it also may lose its force along the way as other details or trends assert themselves more powerfully.
❤ Yes, well said !
That is an oxymoron, I call this man a coward, Because that is all he is.
no he is really good at telling us " feel good story" with sketchy "facts".
its like grandma telling children everything gonna be wonderful and fantastic.
Describing trends is not tantamount to making accurate predictions...and PZ thus far (when wearing his 'prediction hat') is not too successful. His historical perspective is very good in my estimation and his musings are provocative. However, as with any individual who is keen on informing us of where, what, how and when we need to be following their expert advice...it might be wise of us to solicit additional opinion(s). NZ is an amazing Nation and I admire you Kiwis and your self-determinate success.
Yes, for example I keep asking, but what if China adapts to a lower population? Obviously the US is an economic superpower with 1/3 the population...couldn't China figure some of that out? Wouldn't the incentive be at maximum to adapt to maintain productivity beyond what a current understanding of demographic health would claim is possible? Couldn't there be huge advances in adult education initiatives to take advantage of a still huge rural population? Or if there's some other adaptation, for example, China masters a downstream variant of their belt and road project to the point where it's indispensable for the global south, or if there's a new way to make global shipping safe that doesn't involve destroyers--obvious candidate would be a combination of satellite global eyes on all shipping lanes with potent drone defenses available to make even a state think twice about interdiction... none of those critiques involve Zeihan being wrong, they involve creativity and innovation that isn't accounted for yet because it doesn't exist... yet.
The "Biden in a landslide" quote will probably end up looking like "Bitcoin is going to zero" from Zeihan.
Oh did he say that about Bitcoin? Seriously? LMAO if so.😅
@@freeandcriticalthinker4431to be fair when Bitcoin was selling off people like you said nothing. It was a very real possibility that it was going to zero.
Ya on Joe Rogan no doubt. What a silly head.
ua-cam.com/video/FxvDIJ2I1Ms/v-deo.htmlsi=XMy0C428DsGxLU2R
I want somebody to remind me of this prediction after the election. Biden did win by about 7 million votes. Polls are showing higher voter apathy this time around. I wish his prediction on this was true but I doubt it.
apparently his "china won't exist in 10 years" is on the same path. i think he's just trying to make his money and then disappear when people realize it was all bs.
I watch a lot of Peter's interviews and this is the first time I have visited this channel. Whether you agree or disagree Peter's views of what is coming in the near future, I thought this was a very well done interview. The interviewer really got into the details of Peter's predictions for what comes next. Good job and good luck New Zealand.
There is no guarantee Peter’s prediction is right. But it’s guaranteed to be objective, which is much better than anyone else.
Objective? No. Peter does have political biases…
yes -- great job pushing back with informed 'counters' to peter's talking points, to get to that next level of response, and I'm a Peter fan
@@HankSemoreButz Who doesn't? But it is refreshing to see Peter balance between both parties. And if you watch his videos the only president he backed was the first Bush, who lost. Even that tells a story as the first Bush had more work credentials than almost any president the US has elected. Peter didn't give me that. If you study or read history you know it.
Yes, facts can change but population data (ie male/female, age, birthrate) is a solid measuring tool to begin understanding why of things.
Watching Japan, for example. I read The World Almanacs for fun. When Peter explained their population problem it fit with why they were on top and have been struggling for so long.
@@space_btwn_notes it's odd how Peter mentioned in another interview that Trump would lose massively to Joe Biden this November. He also said that Ukraine would easily be defeated by Russia.
Today everyone is saying how Putin's days are numbered if he retreats from or even loses Crimea.
The Russians have a saying, "the Russian people have no patience for Tzars that lose wars.
If history has taught me anything
Whatever Peter Zeihans predicts the very opposite will happen
Yea he gets it wrong so many times versa correct, by light years 😅
He is particularly poor on American politics.
It never seems to hurt his confidence though…
He practically predicted the Ukraine invasion 7 years ago. Unfortunately when I post links my comment gets deleted but the video is out there. I see Peter more as an analyst than a predictor anyways so I don’t 100% buy in.
Peter Zeihan is in love with himself. I'll pass.
Pete-y is neglecting to mention that he was predicting skyrocketing fertilizer prices to land 8-12 months ago. There was supposed to be mass starvation by now. Huh.
He always underestimates the actions of Individuals.... So many people are used to the Central planning as big plans going wrong, and they see those as business opportunity is, so they'll just start growing food elsewhere to meet the demand, didn't it something similar happen with the natural gas stuff
The price of fertilizer had already exploded, and mass starvation is occurring, it's just not outside your door, and it's not reported on like really pressing issues, like Joe Brogan speaks out on Mr Tater Head going woke, or the Prince of Bel Air goes rogue at the Academy Awards. And yes, I'm aware that these examples are old news, but they're still pressing...
@MoonDoggie-hs2se I know you think you're clever, but the facts say otherwise. I live within 200 yards of an agricultural fertilizer and chemical store. I work out with the Sr. Manager of another in the next county. Fertilizer prices spiked just a bit at the start of the Ukraine War, back to normal now. I have 20 neighbors that are farmers. They complain more about low corn and soybean prices than the costs of fertilizer. Which means there's plenty of food. When all those starving people have something valuable to trade, they'll be fleets of ships rushing there.
@@steveputman9545you lost me in your first sentence.
Stay lost bro@@Joe-ti7qd
My father was on an MSC shipn in 1996 in the South China sea, two small ships were shadowing their ship for a day until they bluffed the pirates by sending out communications with another ship that they are docking with the USS O'Brien. The pirates then left the area.
I want you to bookmark this video and let’s come back to it in mid November.
You don't have to. Here is what's coming. The Dem party will choose another presidential candidate due to Biden's failing mental health. That candidate could be communist California governor who completely destroyed his state. If he would win the election, he will destroy the country. B/c of that reason Texas will become an autonomous republic, possibly joint by other patriot states to form Texas Union, which will do business with BRICS+. If Trump gets convicted of J6, he will never be able to run for president again, b/c J6 is considered treason. There are many who want to see him in prison, for different reasons. If he is not convicted and runs, Robert Kennedy Jr will take votes from Trump. It is quite possible there won't be an election b/c general Flynn and the military will take over in a coup, to avoid ww3 by negotiating peace with Russia.
God I hope he’s wrong.
Im quite certain he is wrong... lets see the debate
@@tomharper8351
All of the metrics he's basing it off of are correct.
The only thing that would save Trump would be double digit shifts in minority votes in some of these swing states which some polls are showing but would be unlikely to actually happen. Polls had shown similar trends in 22 and it was a GOP disappointment.
@@MakerInMotion
This is still a motivating factor Biden will likely exploit, even special elections as recent as this past month have shown a Dem over performance compared to polling.
Thanks for this video. I was recently diagnosed with a terminal illness and you've managed to make me happy about it.
Wishing you well
Sorry to hear that, enjoy the days you have with the people you care about
I am sorry to hear about your diagnosis. I know we do not know each other but in the last couple of years as the bad news and worse predictions continue to pour in I often feel as though I too have a terminal illness on the horizon. Regardless I do not wish for it and I wish that yours is a mistake.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I hope you're just being facetious
Next Peter will say that Trudeau will win in a landslide
i think he is quite out of touch with reality
He is certainly putting his professional credibility on the line on a very short term prediction.
He is working for company based in Langley so he knows out of 350 million of Americans 700 million will vote for Biden
If Americans are deceived a second time and Trump wins this time around, the US will deserve everything negative it’s about to get. Based on everything Trump has done, is planning to do, and said, Biden should win fairly big. If he doesn’t, then America is broken and will suffer a definitive and lengthy fall.
No Chance of that happenning
Lovely interview. Not sure how accurate, or not, Peter Zeihan is, but gives you a lot to think about.
He says a little of everything so is never wrong . 20% chance of rain . See I told you it would rain - I told you it was not going to rain
Peter Zeihan is typical one eyed dumb yank.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting the end of the world for quite some time now, and has become a popular prophet of doom. Fortunately for the rest of us, he has continually been wrong, but this has not stopped him from his mission to bring us all down. One has to admire his persistence.
he is a big picture generalist in terms of time, scope and 'solid state' events. He does not purport to suggest that if something changes his predictive models will remain the same. In fact, there are many instances he has come back after the fact (see his latest updated book as an example) and said something to the effect of "neither I, nor anybody else, saw that coming, but now, with this change...": "its all up in the air"; or "this is the most likely scenario"
@bryanjackson8917 "Peter Zeihan correctly predicted 15 of the last 5 crisis". I don't know who said this first but I found it was pretty funny.
I’m enjoying how Zeihan is conducting this New Zealand interview in front of a map missing New Zealand….
They looked at the state of the world, and decided they really don't want to be part of it.
I watched Peter’s content for a long time until it really started showing in the last 6-9 months that he is bought and fed by the agencies and the incumbent bureaucracy that he needs access to and now propagandises in turn for. Happy days to all you who traipse down his path. I will be on the other side somewhere.
I agree… Biden will only win in a “landslide” by mass cheating in 2024….and I am a lifelong Independent voter, so not biased.
He feeds the confirmation bias of his customer base.
Peter was a big part of STRATFOR , an open source intel cutout of the IC and deep state. Look into Stratfor’s scandal working with the IC to discredit and destroy Julian Assange with utter lies and propoganda. Some of The internal communications were leaked. Stratfor was the bellingcat post 9/11. He’s always served his special interest paymasters first. Notice he calls himself an internationalist because he’s too cowardly to say he’s a globalist - which he is. His ilk get rich and powerful through the empire of globalism which betrays the average decent citizens of all nation states, 1st world, 2nd or third. His project is the iron law of oligarchy and he’s an elitist determined to she gate the proles, diminish their wealth through debt and currency debasement, and this requires a demoralized and scared, cowardly citizenry. This they seek to crush self-reliance, small-business, the middle class, and our natural rights bestowed by our creator, not a rapacious and mendacious federal government. The citizens are not people to Zeihan, they’re demographics. And like an all naive and foolish globalists and neo-liberals, he believes demographics is destiny. And that scheme has failed them turns out people are individuals not just fractals of their identity group. It’s he irony here is that they label as racist, anyone who refuses to define someone based on their immutable characteristics. Values, principles, virtues, & beliefs are far more important, and those are the things they seek to destroy. Cause if they destroy our past, they can own the present, and thus dictate our future. And by stealing our culture and identity, people become incapable of moral judgements which otherwise recognize the globalist cadre as devious, malignant tyrant we refuse to obey, refuse to abide.
I only wonder why on earth do you follow Zeihan? I'm not sure what one would gain from that.
a slick paid propagandist
You’ve missed an opportunity to discuss India and its footprint on these matters
Only 30 minutes buddy ^^
this guy knows geography, he is always clueless on any domestic western politics
Yes vwry clueless domestically, also he fails to realize if Biden wins its impossible to have a military selective service draft or a war in which over 10 American soldiers died within a month.. So pretty much no boots on ground..UNLESS they kinda want a Frontline military full of liberal’s minorities and women..
Yeah
he’s actually clueless across the board… you’re just more familiar with the domestic stuff
Well, he is an internationalist. He said it himself. So from his viewpoint we are just an economic block in the world and what we think domestically doesn't really matter.
How is "knowing geography" even a qualification?
Summary: New Zealand needs to trade milk for manufacturing machinery, when the latter is at the cheapest.
Send us your frozen lamb, that's always been popular here in the UK.
..America doesn’t need milk….
Peter has never mentioned the scenario where China actually becomes a democracy like Taiwan. I posted the question that received one strange comment saying the culture was "viscerally opposed to the pillars underpinning the type they need".
When I replied, Haven't you ever heard of the Tiananmen Square Protests that ended horrifically? The comment was never posted. When I edited my previous reply to reflect my follow up about the Tiananmen Square Protests in 1989, that reply was DELETED.
SOMETHING IS ROTTEN IN DENMARK
@@speedwagon7562 but New Zealand, China, and the entire world needs freedom of navigation. The UN does not enforce anything anymore. It just subverts through hegemony now.
@@secretbassrigs , how on earth could they possibly become a democracy, ( something that would assume 80+ yrs ) of struggle, when there’s less than 10 yrs, before total collapse…?
Listening to Mr Ziehan is fascinating in many ways…..I graduated with a Geography degree and can relate to many things he touches on …although his knowledge is way above my pay grade.
Well, if you studied political science and geopolitics, you would just chuckle at his delusion and superficiality. A jack-of-all-trades, master of none!
@@metugeekane8454 yeah, the idea that a nation that has existed for thousands of years will just cease to exist because of trade issues is just dumb on the face of it.
Not really
Honestly man..I have been a big critic of Peiter..and he get some predictions wrong..but he states some really interesting geopolitical and economic affairs.
nz should be finding other markets to spread risk ..
@@quintrexone562 whose population?
@@quintrexone562 cake!
@@quintrexone562beef, pork, lamb, we prodce a lot if it?
Wow, I did not know that Peter Zeihan went to Otago University.
With his opinions sounds like it was to his detriment.
He still comes back here every few years for a few weeks to enjoy the South Is. He's a very keen hiker and gets out whenever he can.
@@richardpeychers4076 it's funny, he's also adamant that Trump will lose to Beijing Biden by a massive landslide. It's very contrary to what most experts are predicting.
@@richardpeychers4076 also, did he mention India's rise in this interview? I know he has in other interviews.
@@richardpeychers4076you trumpers demand everyone think like you. FFS you all hate free speech.
Peter's words, while not exactly correct, are a fairly concise articulation of the ego of the US. They are worth hearing. He's telling you what the US as a conscious entity would be thinking in his own way
I do feel that the value of Zeihan is less in his predictions and more in his examination of the global moment. Whether he's right about where things are going is less important than whether his facts are correct - and he does seem to have a great handle on the available data.
Great interview! Good to see someone push back at Peter. I've been following him for awhile and I appreciate his macro big picture view. I think he's right on many issues. Kiwis need to do what they feel is best for them. But choose your friends wisely and keep the Aussies close.
Peter has said that Ukraine would fall to Putin's invasion easily. And recently I heard him say that Trump would lose by a wide margin to Biden. I'm not saying that his predictions for PRC China won't come true. In fact, I believe the ones about PRC China will, much like I did Gordon Chang's predictions about China's economy collapsing, being triggered by a massive real estate crash.
I would too but I think there are few people informed enough to argue with him
@@bozolito108 it's hard to argue with him because people give him so much credibility and attention for his predictions, but it's difficult to ask him for his sources.
Gordon Chang's predictions regarding China's economy and system breaking beyond repair, being triggered by extremely overpriced and over produced property and China's shadowy Banks , accompanied by its massive international debts, did turn out to be true.
He is always wrong on everything
@@Nicole-yy1kn "Emotional Damage!" 😭
Where will NZ export its dairy products to when they lose the China market? The US and Europe have a surplus of dairy and want to export it too. Perhaps to Southeast Asia, or Latin America or the Middle East, but those markets are not secure without a globalized economy and their population will also be dropping. Will Africa have the capacity to buy it? I wish Peter had addressed this topic.
India. They go nuts for NZ dairy.
NZ trade with China will end up in the same predicament as Australia caused by geopolitical tensions and the choosing of sides in the battle of fear.
NZ will have to work something out with Australia, Australia will be looking to Asia form manufacturing and exports, so it makes sense.
The dairy market is about to drop; due to being able to produce dairy using the same yeast technique, as is used to make human insulin. This same method can be used to grow meat, all sorts of drugs, etc. Add to this the fact that; energy abundance is right around the corner; and it will also provide clean fresh water, abundant crops due to vertical farming, etc. The A.I. automation boom will do the same for manufacturing, home building, etc, the way it has been happening in the auto industry. If the countries invested in China speed up the relocation of their manufacturing; build up local manufacturing in their countries, etc, the world may weather the collapse of the Chinese economy.
I think the biggest threat are the countries that have joined BRISC; as their economies will be pulled down right beside China, and that is where the hardships may occur.
America needs to join the rest of the developed world; by establishing universal health care, universal higher education, by revamping our K-12 education away from the service industry, and towards the sciences, technology, engineering, etc, so we will be able to compete when the current tech boom takes off.
If the global economy can avoid an economic crisis for the next few years; and especially in America with our currently booming economy, rather than having to drag ourselves out of an economic crisis, we may see the current economy take off like a rocket.
My biggest problem is; he has a personal bias towards projecting horrific outcomes, because it gets him views, gets him more speaking engagements, and sells more books. There is a term for what he is pushing; and it's called disaster porn, which we see on Yahoo, MSN, and on many social media outlets, as it makes for high profits.
If you notice; Peter gives little advice as to; what the countries of the world should do to make the crisis he predicts less impactful.
Perhaps the nz people will finally get a decent product
You would think that being dead wrong over and over again would cause him to pause and reflect, but he just can't stop saying stupid stuff. I think he just likes to hear himself talk.
Yes, Zeihan is confidently ignorant....very American.
bingo
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Clueless to the point of neglegant
He's not dead wrong most of the time, though. The overall global trends he's predicted are accurate, and nobody can predict every single detail perfectly.
He is being paid handsomely for saying what he says, and he is trying so hard to outdo Gordon Chang.
That was such a great interview. I can’t wait to see more.
That was very well done. I listen to Zeihan most every day and have read his books. Your interview was the most concise and informative I've seen.
@@user-cn3uz5hp2c He’s wrong some of the time, but he’s gives good context and perspective. To be well read means reading many books. His are worth including.
poor you.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting the end of the world for quite some time now, and has become a popular prophet of doom. Fortunately for the rest of us, he has continually been wrong, but this has not stopped him from his mission to bring us all down. One has to admire his persistence.
@@bryanjackson8917He definitely sensationalizes to sell books. And even worse, he’s from Iowa. ;)
Still, I think he provides a lot of quality information. I just wouldn’t make him your only read.
You are not the brightest bulb in the chandelier
The Chinese Economic Model is based on Selling what China Produces to the outside World.
The local consumption although China has a Billion + population is weak.
When you compare the life style of EU Citizens with that of Chinese Citizens, there is a huge difference. In other words the EU purchases what it produces and more from outside Europe.
What happens is, in China without selling to the outside World, you have an unbalanced Economic Model. All those Chinese Factories will close down if they don't sell their products to the EU the US and other countries.
In the US or the EU, there is a very vibrant local economy, which means they can rely on themselves 100%. They consume a lot but they know how to produce what they consume.
Any interruption of Economic Relations between China and the US or between China and the EU, hurts the Chinese Economy a lot.
For some reason many around the World saw China selling to the outside World as a Strong point, but it's not.
If you don't buy what you like from this supermarket, you will go to the next one.. this is the example that applies to China's Economy. But China's leaders never based their politics on this reality, they instead tried to act as though they're a power house in spite of not having a strong consumption Society. Personal Health personal Wealth etc..
La joie de vivre or the know how of things.
China has an excellent Economy as long as it has outside Clients, so it's the outside clients who buy China's products that have the leverage of power in this relationship.
What is the population of the West as compared to the rest of the world?
Totally agree. The Chinese, also, totally agree with you. There's a huge national drive now in China to produce goods made from Chinese resources only and for domestic markets.
This is what Trump understands that apparently no other US President has since China joined the WTO. The CCP is beyond evil & it seems they have pissed off The West enough to finally get some pushback. It seems Trump was right in 2016 when he called out China.
The reason they saw it as a good idea to sell the world manufacturing base to China was US lawmakers opened a number of loopholes that essentially acted as points of entry for public funds to be laundered into the private sector and enshrined behind private business protection laws to both shirk responsibility and cover their theft under the guise of 'privacy'. This fundamentally is what set everything in motion and what really created China's rise of the past 40ish years. Our own leaders sold us out to China simply because it gave them an entirely new layer of loopholes to rob the taxpayer. And of course Uncle Sam was more than happy to outsource that model to our allies...
Sorry everyone, it's actually our(US) fault. Some of us know it, but we're slaves to that same system. We're working to fix it, please be patient. Our entire system is designed to stop us from fixing it so it will take time.
@@ansa336More importantly, what is US consumption compared to the rest of the world. We have been in love with cheap foreign made junk recently.
Peter is not the guy you want to rely on for info
...or predictions. I have not yet seen PZ make a prediction that has been proven to directly correlate to a specific demographic profile or hypothesis to which he has spoken . If there are any, I will stand corrected.
Shut up. Why are you here??? Bot?
@@williamflack6691 Bro .. neither have I ... and I don't have a hard-on with the guy ...
He is my neighbour. We often chomp on Cuban cigars through the night, chatting global affairs. Everything he is saying is far too intelligent for most . He is correct
@@gjthomas9770 You do realize people can actually check his former predictions right? And see for themselves he's full of it? Or do you think your singular comment is what makes the record?
This guy has been wrong about almost everything he's talked about in the past 3 years. It's amazing that he can speak with such confidence with such an awful track record.
What did he say that offended you?
@@wantanamera No offense. He's just wrong on almost everything he talks about.
@@FooshNick064 riiiiight
@@johnthomaso4208 pfft everyone hates him....
Why isnt NZ on his map on his back wall 😅😅😅
Because New Zealand thinks they’re important but there not, kiwis think they’re important but they’re not.
Nz is a dump and brainless, no one cares about New Zealand apart from people that live there.
Because no one noticed
@@geofflewis8599 until now lol
All cheap maps are like that
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣You win the prize for the funniest dry comment. I thought it was a hat.
Hello from Texas, NZers! Avid Zeihan follower, first time viewer of this channel. Peter loves to hear himself talk (that doesn’t mean he’s wrong), & it was nice to see the host interrupt & redirect him. Peter’s well respect around the globe, for his long term predictions. His assertions are formulated from extensive research by specialists in his employ. Ian Bremmer specializes in short term geopolitics, & Peter’s focus is looking forward by decades.
Mostly wrong. CiA disinformation officer.
Biden will win by a landslide….🤦🏻♂️
He is wrong and you can take your dribble and find a hole to put it in. We dont want that american bs here in AOTEAROA
All true. Zeihan uses facts to base the predictions. I also like to see when smart people speak the truth to power. And when he tells his stories like the NSA? the best hackers in the world or the balloon story. Calming effect. I also saw a video where he stood up to crypto sellers. They invited him to counter his understanding of crypto. He was polite but truthful.
@@artistforfreedom he predicts Trump to lose massively this November. He also predicted Ukraine would have fallen to Putin's invasion by now.
When we got to his prediction of a Biden landside, I tuned out.
NEXT !
It's true!
Can't handle the truth, eh?
Shinzo Abe, may he rest in peace.
Definately someone who had the foresight to see things years ahead (in a geopolitics point of view)
Young people of Japan, heed his advice!
It's lots of fun!
Guyon, thanks for this interview. Very interesting guest and you got a lot out of him. I follow your work and appreciate it because I am a conservative who likes my ideas to be challenged intelligently.
During a recent vacation Zeihan expressed his appreciation, almost love, for New Zealand. So it is curious -- it is certainly not intentionally an affront -- that New Zealand was omitted from the stylized world connected-land-mass map that he often uses as a backdrop for his virtual interviews. Back in the 70s and 80s I worked in R&D with a New Zealander who said people back home were quite aware of the same flaw in TV newscasts received from America, IIRC, the backdrop for Walter Cronkite on CBS. On both maps, more than a half century apart, New Zealand simply doesn't exist. Peter should correct this!
There's nothing to correct if the US is not calling for an invasion of New Zealand by Australia. It's absolutely different from the way China coerces other countries and companies to stop mentioning Taiwan as a sovereign country and recognize Taiwan as a province of China.
Who cares
@@atapene 🎶"Every time I look around.... Every time I look around....Xi's in your face!"
Is PRC still adding the dumb 9 Dash Line to their backdrop maps of Asia? Didn't the international courts find PRC has no legal grounds to declare ownership of the Spratleys than bury them completely in sand, within Philippines EEZ.
Sorry, but NZ is just irrelevant in most World news. It is just rolled in with Australia.
He is right about NZ making It's own products, instead of depending on China imports!
Excellent interview, Guyon. I have subscribed. From an American.
Peter seems to be wrong an awful lot for presenting his views so confidently.
An awful lot? Can you name your top 10 favorites?
@@Robert-fx3ng I start with his early predictions about Russia defeating Ukraine in six months.
@@frankdindl790 that is only one, was an “awful lot” a bit of an exaggeration? Writing a book that was released in 2014 predicting the Russia would invade Ukraine in 2022 seems like a big win. Can I have the other 9 wrong predictions still?
@@Robert-fx3ng feel free to review every one of his UA-cam videos since the war in Ukraine started. The one example I listed is a pretty big one.
@@frankdindl790 Your statement was that he is wrong and awful lot and as someone who follows, I knew it was a load of BS. Now you want me to research in hopes of proving you correct? Just own the fact that you misspoke. With all the typing back and forth you could have given ten examples by now if they existed.
It's hard to swallow your pride, or worse to tell voters they need to swallow their pride. I know it would be tough for me to hear from my representative that we have to cave in to some other country's demands because we need them. I guess we did go through that a bit in the 70s with OPEC, but it was not a popular time for our government.
He's saying this because many of NZ's exports already have production within the United States so benefit to the US would be quite limited for any free trade deal without conditions of some sort being in place. I have no idea what those would be, but that's the issue here. California alone has dairy, fruit, wine, and software industries that'd only be harmed by just jumping into free trade w/ NZ while NZ producers would gain free exposure to a massive consumer market.
@@blakebrown534 no. That's Not a reasonable anti-US narrative. The US is already the largest exporter of food to China. It's current sanctions and tariffs are a repeat of Trump policies due to China's aggressive, unfair, and not allowed under WTO RULES economic practices. The EU is finally doing very similar for the same reasons.
@@blakebrown534 that just wrong and insulting. The US is the #1 net exporter of food in the world. There's no need to monopolize anything, especially at the cost of losing allies and business partnerships. The EU, even though it's implementing massive tariffs on China, does still plan to increase their food exports to China. It's suspicious of you not to mention that, BUT blame the US immediately.
@@secretbassrigsthe farmer and rancher voting bloc is strong in the United States. Politicians care about being elected first and foremost.
@@texasforever7887 non sequitur Chicom ..... Please Read this 👉 黄猴习近平哈巴狗，你也该救救你的便便了。大陆要在很长一段时间内才能因怜悯而出现另一个经济奇迹。 🇨🇳👍🇰🇵
Excellent interviewer with great informed insightful guest
Finally a smart guy on the internet I love it
Must be why Luxon is in Japan now trying to get trade under way
I love Peter, but his understanding of the naval situation isn't quite accurate. You no longer need hundreds of frigates to ensure maritime security. 90% of the reason you'd want that many ships would be for detection (and to some extent deterrence), but there are other more modern assets to handle that.
Drones handle the detection, then QRF of helicopters with marines. That's your deterrence. Not the sight of a ship on the horizon: that's easy, it's making them fear the empty ocean that's more impressive.
You don't need to watch everywhere all the time. Although you pretty easily could if you so desired using assets like global hawk built on masse in place of frigates which require crew and those crew need to be paid, and require shipbuilding which we lack. Primarily you're going to be watching close to ports and choke points.
The only reason a situation like the Red Sea exists, to be blunt, is it's an election year, and systematically eradicating the Houthi's ability to launch attacks would of course result in some collateral damage. Way too many social warriors to allow for properly dealing with a threat in the modern era. At least in an election year. Maybe next year.
Where are the short legged QRF helicopters launching from in your vision of anti-piracy response? Also, how do helicopters provide persistent deterrence if they only have 5 minutes of loiter before they need to RTB?
How is going after the Houthi's...the US? And what would be our strategic objective?
Not just the U.S. The Navy patrolled the seas during the cold war.
The U.S., U.K., and to a much lesser extent, the French Navy explicitly patrolled the high and littoral seas for strategic freedom of navigation.
The Soviet navy did what was in its own best interest.
The U.S. Navy had 594 ship fleet at its peak in 1987. U.K. had 80 in '87 while the French fleet was 124 ships. The Soviet Navy was at 515 ships in 1990, not including corvettes and smaller patrol boats.
The deterrent these large cold war navies patrolling around had on piracy on the seas was palpable.
Today's U.S. fleet is largely the only Navy still patrolling explicitly for strategic freedom of navigation. The ~250 ship Russian Navy is a non-starter and just like Russia, the U.K. and French navies are a much smaller. Today, the U.S. Navy has much more capable individual ship/sub capability but a fleet size of 275 with more decommissions than we can produce Burke flt IIIs.
If it's just a matter of knowing who is doing what, we have satellites now. If it's the ability to hit or punish the pirates, we have jets and helicopters with guns, bombs and rockets.
England, France and Spain will never go back to their privateering. Any North African or other Arab states, South-East Asian states or any other countries that tried it today would get hammered.
As for the correlation between the rural to city migration and family size, he's assuming causation, when in fact the causative agents of both were technology, better health/lower mortality, women working outside the home, far greater wealth and the resultant demands of choosing among all of the newly available options.
I've lost track of all of the outlandishly ignorant assertions he's made. But being right isn't his goal ... selling books and having paid speaking engagements is his goal, and sometimes saying outlandish things gets the attention he needs to accomplish those two goals.
It would only take a few incidents of state sponsored privateering to force an increase in maritime shipping insurance rates…🤷♂️
Great Questions and Interview Guyon!!
Amazing talk!
Why isn’t Bitcoin negative by now , Peter ?
Sssh you might Just piss off my Friend larry fink whom is deeply invested upon it.
😂
Warren Buffet agrees with Peter about Bitcoin.
I think his assessment on German industrial economics is wrong, it is highly diversified, by far most of it is not high energy intensity (which are "heavy industries" sectors like metallurgy, glass, cement, base chemicals) anyways, if you look at the growth rates of different manufacturing subsectors in Germany, the ones that aren't energy intensive are growing quite well, it has access to higher energy intensity suppliers from within the EU, so that shift is not in itself a geopolitical risk.
So a decline in German heavy industries is not an end to the German growth model.
The entire concept of "unrecoverable" demographic decline is also rather absurd if it isn't clarified what that means, you can always recover, fertility works in exponentials, what you can't prevent at some point is a temporary decline in the share of population within the labor force, as there will be a point where you have lots of old, lots of young, and not that many in the middle, that leads to a temporary reduced prosperity, so that is misleadingly framed.
yes, he knows his facts very well, however he seems blind to the human reaction.. people do things that mess with his predictions every time...
Young Germans, remember JS Bach!
"If you want a chamber orchestra to play your music, simply sire one!" - JS Bach, probably
"If your first wife wears out, just get a second." - actual quote
Working Assumption: he is a Security State asset.
great episode
I’ve been cooling on this guy for a while. This snuffed out the last bit of flame. The best quote I’ve seen about him is “Peter has correctly predicted 20 out of the last three crisis”.
Peter doesn't predict, he extrapolates. He explains the ramifications of the available data. If the data changes, then his extrapolation changes. That doesn't make him wrong, that makes his forecasting flexible. Everything he says is provisional -- subject to change upon the discovery of new data and knowledge.
Although sometimes his extrapolations are wrong, also.
Theres nothing wrong with bringing discourse to the table
Eh, we need doomsayers sometimes.
Do you really dislike George Orwell or Aldous Huxley because they weren't entirely right?
The map hanging behind the speaker does not include New Zealand.. yet he is being interviewed by a NZ tv initiative!!
He did graduate from the University of Otago though.
This was fascinating
Even if NZ was this dependent on a friendly country like Canada or Australia, we would be recommending diversification. Dependence on a nation with malevolent intentions is not in NZ best interests
A brilliant interview - this is how you get the best out of Mr Zeihan. Have him interviewed by a competent person who also knows what they’re talking about and is prepared to control / direct the interview. This is the best dose of Mr Zeihan opinions that I have had the opportunity to listen to in ages. Many thanks to Mr Espiner for a job well done. I particularly enjoyed listening to Mr Zeihan analyse of why Mr Trump is going to lose in a landslide. Not to mention the harsh but realistic outline of how New Zealand has to go about getting a free trade deal with the Americans.
LOL new zealand,home of the libtards..
Shame they don't show dislike numbers
Have been following Pete for a LONG time. Throughout the course of listening to him you can begin to see a track record. He is careful to be overly subtle, but he does indeed align with US Democrats. It comes as no surprise that he interprets global conditions that will favor Biden. However, wading through the propaganda machine I venture to say the average American does not have Pete's world insight and they vote on a much smaller level of comprehension. And most of that is direct wallet related reaction. My prediction is a VERY CLOSE election favoring a change of course from the current.
Not a Trump fan, but he is ahead in most polls.
great Zeihan
@frankshifreen He is great at running away. That is only thing that is great about the man.
I thought Canada had ventured down the rabbit hole, but it is clear New Zealand has become a new a55
Brilliant
I used to follow Peter with a good degree of “belief” in his predictions. But after 10 years of listening to him, his accuracy rate is SO LOW…. Dismal
This combined with the past few years watching his incredibly strong SELF BIAS which is very evident and apparently he can’t get past it. It is indeed the hardest bias to get around, though it doesn’t even look like he cares about it.
Damnit, I almost feel “fooled” and I have lost most of my respect for his creditability and of course, NEUTRAL OBJECTIVITY.
He is a propagandist. He is trying to move people's minds in the direction his masters desire.We have all become much more awake in the last ten years to the types of methods he employs and they are working on fewer and fewer of us. You should feel happy and satisfied that you have increased your mental strength to the point where his type of methods no longer work on you as intended. It is like riding a bike, once you see what you see, you cannot unsee it and you see it everywhere it tries to affect you. You can't forget how to ride a bike.
Peter sounds unhinged when talking about Trump
He describes himself as a political independent. He's very uniparty in his ideas. Think Reagan/Bush Sr conservative. He's very neoconservative in his foreign policy views. Demographics, geography, and supply chains? He's your man. Political forecasting? You're better off talking to one of those animatronic fortune tellers in a box
He gives this answer on the election every time word for word and unlike any of the geography and economic points, he doesn't really back it up with anything. It comes off as emotional wishful thinking on his part. The man is great at 'hard' topics, geography, economics, resources, but he's always way off about culture and politics.
@@brooklynbud1138 neocon’s are warhawk foreign policy wise and full-blown communist domestic wise.. Hardly Conservative at all.. Bush sr, Bush Jr, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Biden pretty much all the same domestic wise.. If Biden wins he gots general conservative support for foreign policy.. He will be leaning in using proxies 100% as putting boots on the ground will be impossible.
If you think that sounds unhinged, just wait until Trump opens his mouth.
@@dan7564 Yes. Trump will be far more coherent than Biden
Real talk.
Very good interview, Guyon. Respect.
You had me at "have you cheered up at all since then?" Subscribed!
Peter is really off base on most of his predictions but his fiction sells well.
And because there's three FJB flying in your neighborhood isn't a strong indicator of a candidates standing among voters. MAGA thinks MAGA is everywhere and encompasses all, when it's actually uncommon, and encompasses very little.
@@MoonDoggie-hs2se …..just as most democrats aren’t represented by fringe left wing kooks. However whispers amongst my independent voter friends in california are that they are voting for trump. Shhh don’t tell anyone.
@@MoonDoggie-hs2se
trump 2024
@@MoonDoggie-hs2se I do a lot of driving, through deep blue areas and "lean" blue areas.
Aside from a scattering of Ukrainian flags and "in this house" yard signs, I have seen ZERO indication that Biden has any support. I see more enthusiasm for Jill Stein. This is borne out by the sparse attendance when he tries to have a rally.
If Biden got zero votes in November, based on this lack of enthusiasm, I would not be at all surprised.
Trump? 10x the support of any other candidate, and it tends to be organic (actually on people's residential property) rather than increase-name-recognition public streetcorners.
MAGA is pretty common, and the fact that you still get social opprobrium for it in some circles, discourages more of his supporters from speaking out.
7:27 I can't believe you were able to say that with a straight face...
😊😅😂
great stuff, Peter rules!
Gayon, that was such an eye opening interview. very well done, you are very good at your craft. Scott
NZ would be better without a squillion dollar trade deal with China, China is a lovely place with lovely people but, China's products are landfill after five years, Beijing is increasingly assertive in foreign relations, it's economy and manufacturing are faltering, we are selling a milk product to a largely lactose intolerant population, global shipping is increasingly less certain, and most of our eggs in a fragile basket is not a good policy to base our economy on. NZ's reality is that we don't need to import so much, especially so much rubbish. We don't and can't for much longer need Warehouse products, Kiwi's could actually wear Kiwi made shoes and eat Kiwi grown food. Cheese, wine, wool carpet, hemp fiber building product and software tech exports can happily sustain us without China and ideally without the US either, given that they're so belligerent, and our export focus has to be Australia and South East Asia because of inevitable disruption to supply chains. As Zeihan attests; NZ is in the best position in the world to withstand global uncertainty and if we have competent governments we'll be okay. But that is a rather large if. Good interview Guyon.
..Because we have tried to get a free trade deal with the US since WWII and failed..So the Clark Labour Govt got one with China which was great for our trade but a strategically risky idea..
Progress on US FTA be like Japan and take whatever deal we can get.
You have to know someone in the States with a business license that will work with you , to be able to even think about doing trade with America , and that's doing it under the radar as in quietly 🤫
If someone tells you to do something you don't want to do, and they have something you want, work out what you need to get away, buy it at the right time, then tell them to bugger off. In that order.
What Lao Tzu didn't have a clue about. But Aotearoa learned in 1987.
And unfortunately the things you list the New Zealand could make are minute fraction of what we need to maintain or improve our current lifestyle.. all of that software, hardware Tec etc. is reliant on being able to buy/license it from global providers, that’s before you even look at transport and transport fuels.
"They don't have enough people under 45 to buy what they produce"
Peter, could you PLEASE comment a bit on why medical demand for 50+ doesn't count as demand?
💯facts!
One consistency found in Zeihan is that he is wrong about everything. That's the only reason I Iisten to him, to see what he is going to be wrong about next. He is clearly a unique individual in that sense.
hope you put all your savings in bitcoin
Except, can't stop the Houthis, or the pirates in South East. Your sitting here worried that they might steel your oil, or food shipments because you don't have deep water navy.
He predicted the full Russian invasion in Ukraine back in 2012. He also predicted the China real state crisis long before Evergrande and Country Garden went broke. This guy is a beast.
@@jgrlemos people have known china has a housing bubble for decades. He isn't some brilliant thinker for being able to read what their debt burdens are. It had to happen eventually. No one knew when it would be because the chinese government could have put it off another decade or 2 if they chose to.
and about ukraine, I don't think you are right. Peter predicted the war in 2014. So he predicted russia would invade ukraine months after russia had already invaded Ukraine. While it's true he predicted the conflict would expand, that wasn't an unlikely event given that russia had already invaded them.
@@jgrlemos The Russian invasion didn't occur until 2022, ten years later, so he was wrong about that. I predict World War III will occur. So if there is another World War in the next 100 years, my prediction is right? Of course there is going to be a World War III. Russia always attacks former soviet states that drift toward NATO. That's like predicting there will be a forest fire next year. China has not, and is not going to have the problems he predicts. Besides, he constantly makes false predictions, and if you throw enough predictions out there, even earth's top moron is by chance going to get something right.
16 hours ago... Biden isn't even running... Peter???
WTF are you talking about?
I find that sometimes I must listen to Peter's presentation three times to get the concepts but to walk away to do a chore or get some-thing, w/out pausing ..., I should go back to the beginning of his presentation. Peter does repeat some of his stuff in later presentations. T/U for your logical analysis and predictions.
If the world population fell, on the face of it, that would suggest that shipping and energy consumption might fall in proportion to the population. It is not in itself an argument for economic collapse.
Peter Zeihan volunteers yet ANOTHER prediction, maybe this one will be right!!
I wish he'd stick to Macroeconomics... thats his actual area of expertise, he's been selling himself as a "Geopolitical expert" recently and its mind numbing how many people take him way too seriously.
Hes consistently wrong about geopolitics, but with Macroeconomics he really does have a PRISTINE knowledge base, i use him for updates myself.
But the Ukraine war really put him in the big leagues, and he can't admit he's ignorant NOW... Hes finally getting recognition 😂
Agree here 100%.
Someone needs to lock him in a room with 100 years' worth of global economic data, and not let him out until he's properly read through it all.
_That_ would get us some worthwhile presentations. =)
Oh sure, Peter, just ignore the war in Europe. It escalates every 5 minutes. It will probably just go away (sarc).
Apparently just like his view of inflation, just ignore it and say government needs to spend more. Zeihan is bought by the democrat campaign I guess.
Good one.
Great interview!
Peter's holistic knowledge of world dynamics in this interview are stunning. One variable that might not be getting any attention is the awareness now of older technologies where mass amounts of food and water were produced on demand through a careful and thorough understanding of natures integrated design system. Given basic food and water, plenty of sunshine and too much time on their hands, you can bet on a second baby boom within a generation, and these kids will be working the farm by the time they hit double digits.
Green revolution happened because of technology, turning fossil fuel energy into nitrates, better farm equipment, better mining and transport of K and P fertilizers too. If old wisdom was so productive it wouldn't have been so easily displaced that which was leaps and bounds more productive. To do without modern agriculture will lead to alot more than just famines, but ultimately, far more habitat loss.
I ran across Peter for the first time a few months ago, and he completely rekindled my interest in world affairs. I'm afraid I'd largely dropped out, for a long long time. But his common sense and "fundamentals based" view of things appealed to my "inner engineer," and I gobbled up as much as I could get from him and others in the following weeks and months. It's good to feel like I've got at least half a clue about things again.
I mean, it's just pretty hard to argue with an upside down demographics pyramid. That implies things that can't be fixed and are "just a matter of time."
@@KipIngram Peter's not really interested in having kids (or women at all) so he doesn't really see Germany pulling an hourglass-demographic like they did with JS Bach's help after the 30 Year's War.
"On the farm kids are free labor, but in the city they're just expensive furniture" -- unless you get creative, and say, you want a chamber-orchestra.
In which case popping out 20 or so and teaching them to play musical instruments (the ones that survive infancy, anyway) works surprisingly well.
The nonsense that comes out of Peter Zeihan is the most batshit crazy analysis around.
Mouthpiece for the elite who control the Democrat USA.
Very interesting!
Peter you are very wrong on most of these issues maybe rebuilding the roads of the USA could be a career move when Trump is back yo
Biden on a landslide. . . Rofl
Peter Zeihan is a very polished public speaker with a buttery voice, and we love to hear him expound on subjects where his wealth of knowledge is so broad -- economics, geography, trade, manufacturing process, strategy, and so forth. Obviously, even a polymath such as Zeihan has limits, and we are bold enough to claim that US politics confounds him. We're going out on a limb to say that, but his perceptions of a Biden-Trump matchup this fall are ripe for a massive shakeup.
I hate long videos: This was great. Thank you.
the 30 straight is a response to people feeling like they are getting edited truth. A sign of the times but leave it to the NZ to show how it's done. Great format for TV to finally catch up to podcast.
" Biden In a Landslide " talk is cheap he should put his money on it !
Peter Zeihan has been predicting the end of the world for quite some time now, and has become a popular prophet of doom. Fortunately for the rest of us, he has continually been wrong, but this has not stopped him from his mission to bring us all down. One has to admire his persistence.
Eh, 1984 and Brave New World are worth a read. So is Zeihan, in the same way.
okay I'm going to have to watch the happiest movie I have after this. Also as an Aussie I can jump ship to NZ at any time if he's right
Nobody:….
Peter Zeihan: i say therefore i believe my great intellect
@RNZ please clean out the trolls.
We don't have a "right to lie" in New Zealand Aotearoa.
We have broadcasting standards.
Well use them when you go to the Media Council mate. Or is flippant your thing.
What is Aeotora? 🤔
I wish we had those in America....
Hello brand new suspicious account. Please explain the lies you claim are present with sources. Thanks.
The days of the transnationalist socialist/globalist socio-fascist, woke cult/Hegelian cult are over.
Espiner questioning the reemerged piracy point is simply embarrassing .. maybe at RNZ should pay some attention to global news.
One clear point from Zeihan's talk is that with de-globalisation there are tough decisions ahead. For domestic NZ politics - basic questions: what is the value of emerging 'tribal fundamentalism' to NZ prosperity. Can you afford to put 'cultural sensitivity' first when the inputs to our agricultural system (Phosphorus, Nitrates, Potassium and Diesel) evaporate? Maybe Shane Jones is right to seek foreign investment in oil/gas and mining industries while global capital is still available. Our sustainable agriculture is the thing that will save us from the cold winds that are likely to blow around the world. Maybe National is right to forestall entry of our agriculture sector into the ETS; to delay adding a cost to producers who need to focus capital on productivity growth in the face of declining input resources..
The Green's will be happy ... de-globalisation and de-industrialisation will see billions of people facing serious food insecurity. The good news, from a Green perspective, is that starving and dead people emit less. However, I am not sure that Green/Labour/TPM have the policies to prevent a significant degradation of the NZ standard of living.
Winter is coming!
Global trade will continue after the US has gone (If it does go!) it will just be different and "maybe" cost a little more, allied countries convoys and such like, the US only had a global role for 70 odd years, a dog watch, the World has been trading longer than that!?!
Peter is a state actor, easy to show as well. In this interview he talked about Trump and the Republican primaries. Now, instead of listening to him, compare how the Democrat primaries were run and the Republican primaries .
We can sure tell who’s padding his pockets. He’s definitely self impressed.
Calling rfk batshit crazy indicates to me that peter has not listened to him on a long form podcast
It's the standard low-iq spin on RFK. I'll vote Trump, but there's nothing wrong with letting RFK speak or treating him seriously. Zeihan just doesn't like that RFK is not a reliable leftist warmonger like the rest of them.
Calling RFK sane, isn't sane, and long form podcast featuring RFK will only deepen that assessment.
Every sane person gets in line and promptly closes their mouth.
He is.
lol he literally has brain worms. He testified in court that he couldn't earn an income because he was brain damaged. He said that covid was designed to not kill chinese and jewish people. Batshit crazy seems pretty accurate to me.
Why do you dignify him with an interview he is paid by corporations and governments to spout untruth.
Peter Zeihan, the most optimistic man in the world.
He's delusional. Whoever wins, it's not going to be in a landslide. He loses credibility with that tripe. He definitely turns me off and I tune him out.