Labour projected to have a majority of 210 | LBC polls analysed
Вставка
- Опубліковано 2 лип 2024
- Shelagh Fogarty speaks to Lewis Goodall, who provides his analysis on the News Agents' election poll with More in Common.
Shelagh Fogarty tells Lewis Goodall: 'The way our politics can lurch is extraordinary, isn't it?'
Lewis Goodall says it suggests this election result will 'basically be 1997, plus more', detailing the extent of the likely Labour victory over the Conservatives, and the subsequent rise of other parties in the polls.
Listen to the full show on Global Player: app.af.globalplayer.com/Br0x/...
#shelaghfogarty #lewisgoodall #conservatives #polls #generalelection #LBC
LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK.
Join in the conversation and listen at www.lbc.co.uk/
Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: l-bc.co/signup
I hope the DWP can handle all the jobless tory MPs turning up on friday looking for new jobs. Hopefully its the last we will ever see of this tory party , they have destroyed the country for the vast majority of us .
I'm 18 and everyone i know will be voting REFORM 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
@@fennelleastman8816 I'm NOT 18 and everyone I know will NOT be voting reform !!!!
Tories at the job centre not with the money most of them have got 😅
not the way it works, most will end up with cushy directorships or speaking gigs. the rest will end up in the media of one sort or another. they have been busy planning whilst raiding the coffers.
@@fennelleastman8816 BS
Really hope vile Ether mcVey is ousted
Want the tories out? Then VOTE them out!
Oh we will don't worry. I feel optimistic for the first time in 15 years 👍
‘Laura Kuenssberg here on the BBC election results special. The shocking headline today is that the Tories only have one seat, Rwanda stalwart, Priti Patel … hold on I’m just getting a message through my earpiece. Oh, breaking news, Priti has just defected to reform …’
😂 We hope!
any mp who was a conservative minister over the last 14 years deserves to lose their seat.
Liebour have done nothing too.
@@FrankPeterson-uk9ky corbyn
Your mum hasn’t either.
LibDems for opposition!
Binface for Richmond and Northallerton!
Today is Bindependence Day!
52/48 was the ‘Will of the people’ and took the U.K. out of the EU, so what mandate would the will of the people giving Labour a 200+ seat majority be called?
It was the will of the brainwashed
@@RobinHarris-nf4yv
You are most definitely that.
If it is less than 40.0% and 12.8m votes, a smaller mandate than Corbyn 2017.
@@RobinHarris-nf4yvGod. You hate democracy/
@@adrianpilcher703 All that proves is that Jeremy Corbyn had zero political strategy.
Petrol Prices. Inability to Afford Food. Waterborne Dysentery. Tory Anti Obesity Policies !!!
The EU just ignored Farage and his childish whining. The UK media on the other hand....
EU lost
@@imperatorvespasian3125 how did they lose? they got rid of one of their biggest pains in their arses. we lost instead.
That's when the EU realised their dictorial control of UK wouldn't happen any longer,and why the Brussels CARTEL is facing political anti EU actions throughout it.
EU . The neo liberal cartel , that you lick the boots of ?
@@colinwishbone4437Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! C'mon, you can't really think the UK is better off now, even Reese Mog moved the city firm he co-founded to Dublin 😄
The tories have no chance
You have semi open borders, this plus decolonization, phone addicted generation, idiotic Palestine protests, poorer productivity, crime increasing, terror threats increasing, degraded universities....instead of innovation, and hard work.
Best of luck....
people have a very clear view of what they don't want.
Voting reform is needed, we have awful politicians because of lesser evil voting and taking for granted.
I wish all the luck of the world to all Brits voting tomorrow. Respect each other's decisions and let democracy take us to a new page in our lives. 🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤
You have certain values & beliefs if you support the Conservative Party, so no I won't be respecting any Tories.
@@Bubbasmum Well, let's say that the Tories is a specific situation. 😂😂😂
In 97 Blair inherited a successful EU based economy, and little debt.,
Starmer isn’t.
The truth. Labour always has a burden of expectation (and they are inheriting scorched earth) but with the Tories they are expected to be corrupt and useless so no one is surprised . Still it will be a 5 year break, at least, from them which will be so welcome
Yeah, him and Brown ran the whole thing into the ground. In between their illegal wars. I remember it well.
major and maggie had sold everything off and still bankrupted the country.
Decent economy maybe, but the NHS, Education, Child Poverty, Pensioner Poverty, etc were all on their knees JUST as they are this time around. Same old Tories time after time after time. Thankfully this time around I don't think people will EVER forgive them. They will be on the peripheries for years and years 👍
A poorer, isolated, austerity Britain under Kid Starver. Great! 😳
That's 126 too many conservatives. Let's be honest it makes no difference to the power of a party if the majority is 50 or 250.
You’re grossly wrong regarding U.K. politics.
@@corradomancini3271 wrong about what? 126 too many Tories - correct. No difference if majority 50 or 250 - correct. Straightforwardly correct.
0 tory seats! 😂❤
Would be a dream!
Yes! Vote Reform 🏴🇬🇧
@@BillGoreArt bot.
@@billy6044
Sure thing, Billy boy 🤪
Not going to happen
Getting the champagne on ice for an all nighter tomorrow night! 🍾🎉🥳
Reform have made a huge impact. 2 seats is not to be sniffed at 🤣🤣🤣
I'd prefer the Green Party to have 2 or 3 seats
And in other news, Elves are real, and we've been invaded by Spain. 🤣
Reform's MPs to meet in a phonebox.
Shelagh, try not to be so delirious on hearing these figures 😮
If you want change you'll have to get out and vote for it. Vote tactically to kick out the Tories and keep out Reform UK Ltd.
I endorse this message!
💯
ONLY IF WE VOTE
At last, we might see a Labour government ( and not "New Labour" either ) that have the mandate to really roll up their sleeves and, at long last, sort out the problems that have held this country back for decades.
35 mins to the polls opening and in less than 24hrs of Tory rule
Excellent News for Sir Keir and the Labour Party . The country is going to have an Honest and Decent PM at long last 😊
He changes his mind every thirty minutes
With a nice reform opposition 🇬🇧
@@markbradley1015 well if labour end up with a coalition that will be the case
😂 unbelievable
He can't even say what a woman is!
Okay so maybe I'm dumb, but when you say that Labour has a majority of 210, what is that in relation to? I always assumed the majority number was equal to the number of seats over 324 (half of all seats I parliament) which in this case would be 106. Where does the 210 number come from?
You double the number over 325. So for example in 2019 the Tories won 365 seats, 40 more than the 325. All the other seats totalled 285, 40 less than the 325. This gave the Tories an 80 seat majority over the other parties
The E.U. now has one G.B. more free space !!!
Oh now there needs to be a conversation about 'the system' 😂😂😂😂
Farage wasn’t a “thorn in the side” of the European Parliament, they just ignored his toddler stunts, and carried on.
@@fennelleastman8816 You need better friends
@@fennelleastman8816good choice young man
Sorry F but their TikToks were produced by Putin’s gangsters and Reform actually hate youngsters
@@fennelleastman8816 voting from moscow are we?
@@fennelleastman8816 you are 100% a foreign troll
A “supermajority” doesn’t give anyone any more power than just a “majority”.
It’s hyperbole.
"you could never imagine Kier Starmer could pull something like this off"
But he didn't. We're not witnessing Starmer being a great politician and winning voters over. We're witnessing the Tory party having messed up and people abandoning them. And we're witnessing the idiocy of the FPTP system.
This has nothing to do with Starmer 'pulling anything off'. You could replace him with a wooden plank and the polls would be the same.
The best, most bountiful and easiest years of my life were 1997 - 2010. Bring it on!🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏😄🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
I gather many of the seats still forecasted to go Conservative are doing so with very small majorities which is why the range of Conservative/Labour seats has such a range.
it just shows you how bad the tories are...
😂😂😂 brilliant 👏 👌 👍🏻
You csn do what you want with a working majority. You need a 30 seat majority.
Boris’s 80 seat majority was the ERG. They would never do what he wanted.,
I hope so 👍🏻
Hallelujah
What was the Conservative and Unionist party, less than 60 seats
Lewis is clever and insightful. Keep him around.
The thing is many Scots voters realise there’s little point in The SNP being at Westminster, given Scotland only has around 8 and a half % of the seats there.
lol its funny how none of the right wing client media talk abouts vote share and pr voting when the tories win lol
Nor would they say that a "super majority" is bad for democracy if they were on the threshold of a landslide victory. FTT.
Remember, the polls said Brexit would never happen or the SNP would never come close to independence or power... 🤷♂️
The polls have improved as a result of those events and the 2017 general election where only the Yougov MRP polls and Survation were anywhere close to that result. In 2019 the majority of pollsters were within the margin of error. For the polls to be so wrong at this stage of the campaign would require a major miscalculation of epic proportions by nearly every single pollster after they were largely correct in 2019.
@@Greggers1601
If you convince yourself of that, then I'm happy that you're happy.
@@Greggers1601 usually polls work by, yes, asking a cross-section of the UK how they intend to vote. But usually polls are focused towards the really close seats from the previous election where there's a 20% up in 2019 aren't safe which casts a shadow on the accuracy of the polls. I also think independent candidates have been very lowly represented in the polls too. So though it is accurate to assume Labour will get a whopping majority, the exact numbers that they are quoting are a little pie in the sky in terms of accuracy and we won't get a real accurate picture until the results come in tomorrow.
It'll be fascinating to see how it all pans out!
Untrue, the EU referendum result was within the polling margin of error.
The Scottish independence referendum result was in line with polling, with a strong NO result.
SNP have had their day.
@@Steven-vo4ee Do not bet on it, independence support is still on 50%+, just about every seat in Scotland is very close with then SNP in the running for most of them. The big problem the SNP face is that Liebour are not really contesting the Tory seats where the SNP are running second.
Opinion polls always underestimate the number of seats likely to be won by the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.
From what I remember in 2019 the final polls underestimated support for the SNP by about 6%
Scotland is sick to death of the SNP's mismanagement and corruption. They are such hypocrites and their days are numbered as the party in power in Scotland. We want them out 👍
Vote REFORM UK
And don't forget your photo ID
Would rather spoil my ballot than vote for fifth columnist Farage’s rabble.
Might aswell just tick a box for putin
@@connorparsfield7456 I think that you must be very confused.
Putin is not running in the UK elections 😂
@@everest9707 No, but his useful (you know what) is.
Why is this question of legitimacy only raised when Labour are looking at a huge majority on less than a plurality of votes? I'll tell you why: The Tories only care about the actuality of power, not the facade of legitimacy. Give Tories absolute power, and their supporters consider it an absolute mandate, give Labour that power, and the Tories supporters will start suddenly being concerned about vote shares and how Labour shouldn't act as if they had a free hand.
Oh don't think it will be ??
what do you think then?
Nobody was shouting about changing the way elections work when yhe Tories won a big majority last time
@@julianroberts698
selective memory then or just senile?
maybe 24 hour news stations isn't helping things, along with clips on Social Media?
LBC isn’t news, it’s talk and opinion radio.
They do not originate news, but the news cycle is about amplifying news more so than creating it - and that's what they do very well.
What's in The Sun or Mail isn't news either, but it's still part of the cycle....
As an aside, who's feet do you think will hit American soil first after Friday.....Sunak or Farage?
If Farage gets elected he'll probably stay... Sunak is more likely...
Keir starmer is an evil man. It's annoying this is the one who will replace the tories.
Learn to love a Labour Government
I hope Mel Stride is safe. He's my succulent boy!
Believe it when I see it! Brexit should teach us! VOTE! 🗳 DONT rely on polls! Tories out!
@@susandurrant6357thank you, I corrected it. Still my point remains.
@@susandurrant6357but dont forget to correct yours as well 😉
Toasted Tories!
Sunak to lose his seat?
Excellent News for Sir Keir and the Labour Party . The country is going to have an Honest and Decent PM at long last .
126 is too many i want them to lose many seats in kent
Are the voters waiting with cricket bats, or have 14 years of austerity left them too weak from scurvy and malnutrition to get to the polls, much less lift a cricket bat?
WHAT IS THIS SUPER MAJORITY ITS JUST A MAJORITY 🤯
The London Labour echo chamber at LBC is always a laugh!
It’s funny how the media are saying there’s a need for change in politics now the Tory boys aren’t going to win 😂😂😂👍
Only one poll matters. And that happens in the voting booth.
Ofcom need to act and shut down this Labour echo chamber.
🤤🤤🤤
They'll learn the hard way like they did with Brexit. Be ready for the riots and tantrums. 🇬🇧😂
LBC has presenters from across the political spectrum.
Labour are just doing well they don’t rig elections like reforms backers 😃
Excellent point - thank goodness the UK has an unbiased national press (Mail, Telegraph and Murdoch publications) to counterbalance the dangerous lefties of LBC...
Wishful thinking. will be way closer than anybody thinks. whose going to admit to a pollster they will vote tory
If he’s elected and Starmer doesn’t achieve the change needed by the end of the next parliament…Labour will be hammered like the Tories. So they need to deliver
I think we’re all lost as to what they’re going to be delivering.
@@RTORC78 economic stability apparently. How I don’t know (they need to create a sec of state for economy if they are serious).
GB Energy seems like a vehicle to give money to mates.
Reminder that this only happens if we get out and vote
😂😂😂😂 hilarious
Everyone's had enough. Tories are toast.
True, but they aren’t going anywhere. They’ll be back in office in the 2030s.
@@Steven-vo4ee oh of course, the pendulum keeps swinging 😁
TonyBlair....the Stalanist?
Waffle 🧇
I loved 1997 until blair ruined uk
Vote Green 💚
I hope this is the last we'll see of Farage at this election
I think he is going to get so bored having to actually be an MP. The guy is a campaigner, not a politician. The day job isn't going to interest him beyond how he can benefit his career and his bank account.
He'll be off to the US if Trump wins. Mirage would make a great fluffer!
NO CHANCE HE IS HERE TO HAUNT YOU .
Reform were already heading for big gains without Farage. 🤷♂️
@@syleshwhycantileavethisbla802 we've seen from Nadine Dorries that you can just decide not to bother doing your job as an MP and still get paid as an MP.
WATCH THE REFORM RALLY AT THE NEC BIRMINGHAM ON SUNDAY AND THEN DECIDE WHO TO VOTE FOR AND I BET YOU WILL VOTE REFORM. VOTING REFORM HERE IN THE WYRE FOREST WORCESTERSHIRE FOR BILL HOPKINS
Looks like you voted for the Caps Lock key also.
I’m amazed at how many seats can be won by Labour with such a flip flop leader and their candidate for Brighton fleeing into his office when he didn’t really know much about Brighton 😅
I'm amazed at how the UK elected Johnson when he hid in a fridge... Then again, the island has never really been that bright...
@@Nice0n3 😅😂😂😂
The FPTP system has always returned ridiculous representation why is that now becoming a big deal?
the vote share for Centre Left parties has stayed fairly constant for months at 58%
because its not the tories with a big majority this time
@@kanedNunable you get the prize
I want Tories out but don't want Labour to win neither
Wait, I am in the USA. Is UK 🇬🇧 in July 4th?
we have election on the 4th this year. chance to get rid of the worst gov in 100+ years
@@kanedNunable The worst recent government's started in 1997 when they started in earnest to sell out the country to globalist marxist interest's whose avowed job is to destroy Western economies and hence countries . The traitorous cons carried it on with help from traitorous labour , who now take up the reins to carry the destruction even further . The whole sellout goes back to not long after WW2 though.
We can now send those Tories for National Service?
I love the News Agents but really hope their MRP is wrong. The smaller the Tories are, the more likely that we get electoral reform, and the more likely that they either go completely extinct, else re-emerge as a party that recognises that competence is required.
nonsense, what party with a huge majority is ever going to go along with PR? there is literally nothing the parties out of power can do about it. look at the last time we had a PR referendum, turnout was pathetic because people fundamentally don't get excited about electoral systems.
Why? First past the post suits Starmer. He will get a big majority with less votes than Corbyn got in 2019.
Unlikely, the larger the Labour majority, the less likely a fairer electoral system becomes.
Also PR is the worst of all options, AV or STV are the only suitable alternatives to FPTP for our parliamentary democracy IMO.
@@Steven-vo4ee I said that but my comment got removed. First past the post suits Starmer if he gets a big majority with fewer votes than Corbyn.
@@clivet3252 Johnson got his 80 seat majority with 42.4%, Tories & Brexit Party voters didn’t complain then.
Hopefully without the toxic Tony Blair
Who do you think is pulling starmers strings 😂
@@suzy7726
If Blair is still involved then we will have a leadership contest because he is still hated by many people because we all blame Blair for joining Bush and the CIA in the illegal invasion of Iraq and Libya
Please
Farage's absurdity will be on full show if the wins Clacton. He will soon fall out with his colleagues and the Tories won't humour him.
And he will HATE with a passion Friday in Clacton listening to the whines of the Jaywick brigade
he wont be able to grift enough so he will leave within a year if he wins
will defect to tories and run for leader within 6 months if elected
Let Reform be the champions of the Uk elections 😊
2 seats 😂😂😂😂
Said no one of average intelligence.
I'm guessing you're over 60, why not leave the votes to people who will be alive in 10 years.
@@thekirstygee and voting for the same thing with a different figure head means you are a regular Einstein???? PLEASE!🤣
Führage's fascists? no thanks. 5 seats max
REFORM, REFORM
BNP, NF, UKIP, BREXIT Drones
Lol 😆
Do Reform voters have broken keyboards?
Führage's fascists? no thanks
@@weswheel4834 oh come on, its taken them 2 years to learn how to spell reform and not eat their crayon. give them some time ;)
BS
if you think the tories were bad enough labour will finally destroy this beautiful country……. vote reform its literally our last chance
🇬🇧 we want our country back 🇬🇧
Vote reform your country needs 🫵
Reform already tried taking our country back once. Look how that worked out. Maybe let the grown ups have a go, eh?
We can’t afford to buy it back. Thatcher sold it in the 80’s.
@@weswheel4834do you mean sheeple
Führage's fascists? no thanks
😂
Interesting how you said legitimacy based on number of votes against seats won. When we all talk about 48/52% Brexit vote when it wasn’t the whole population who voted.
R.e.f.o.r.m. UK 🇬🇧
I highly suspect you can't vote in UK elections where you are.
Lol
Führage's fascists? no thanks
N.o T.h.a.n.k.s.
H.a.r.d n.o.
I voted by post two weeks ago....for Labour..under Sir keir Starmer.
One og the best things I have ever done.
Labou
Suppose millions more on benifits soon
😂😂
Millions of migrates coming to uk every year
😂
I have to go
Need to go to food bank
All with better English than you probably.
@@jackn4853 sorry
Are you on benifits for life
Join me having food banks
Really it not that bad.....
Watch Zia Yusuf and Nigel ar Reform rally, Birmingham. Fab. Vote Reform and join the awakening!!!
Sheila, Starmer has achieved not much, the position of Labour has been handed to him on a plate by a corrupt incumbent. So don’t try and big up ‘’Starmer’s achievements’’.
Get this, no one wants the tories… hence, open door.
He’s not my choice but he has made the Labour party electable👍
Keir Starmer got rid of the unelectable left, and united the very electable centre-left. That's an achievement.
I mean considering that the conservatives and right-wing media spent all of yesterday trying to criticise him spending Friday evenings with his family, I’d say he has at least managed to make it to election day without giving the right-wing press any ammunition. Overly cautious in my opinion, but an impressive feat nonetheless.
@@GlynnHughes-xi4po Electable by tories yes indeed, maybe, but what when he upsets his new best friends and finds labours core has deserted his incarnation of centre right?
He wanted harsher lockdown
Will be interesting to see Farage hold the uni parties to account
Reform is the only way. Can't wait to vote tomorrow.
He'll be cosying up with the other half of the uniparty.
@@ThomasKing19933Me too.. He needs to hold them to account
Can't wait to vote Reform tomorrow.
how will he hold them account?
Vote reform uk
We need abolish political parties,have one non ideological national unity nonpartisan government service,i dispise all main parties,jabour want more diversity!Disgusting
You seem to have a bit of an agenda for someone who wants non-partisan government? "I want a unity government that agrees with me"?
Non-partisan politics simply doesn't exist. You're calling for a dictatorship!! 🤦🤦
It's end of the UK.
Hard working Brits of all colours and religions vote Reform!
Tell me how they would do anything they are promising. There are more holes in the Reform manifesto than a seive.
nope, reform is for real brits only
"Hard working Brits"?. Given how often the unemployed have been scapegoated for all the ills of the country are there many hard working bits left?
@@andrewsmith78926 What is a real Brit? And they will get pummelled in Scotkand, does that make us not real Brits?
never going to happen.
Our country needs you to do your duty and vote for REFORM.
Nige's judgement has been shown to be fatally flawed. Trusting him again would be an odd thing to do.
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!
Who in their right mind would vote for the shyster farage.
Already posted my ballot, and it wasn't for the bot farmers.
Vile and Vicious
Do You Want To Stop The Boats.....If Yes Vote Reform.🇬🇧
Thank you comrade, your rubles are in the post 🇷🇺
LOL..^^^^ We need a party that will fix the NHS...support schools. address energy and the green revolution. I couldn't give a flying F about any party obsessed with some poor people in some boats.
Stop the boats ?? Open legal routes for asylum seekers, and you're see them disappear overnight.
@@user-sd3ik9rt6d Comrade gets said at labour party confrences, alot!
@@TheFlowdiskord Is imaginationland a recognised constituency?