Outstanding explanations of how to deal with certain hands you're sure to encounter even if you're only an occasional player, and the strategies and math behind them.
I only play 3 and 1 differently, but your analysis is compelling. Giving me the probabilities illustrates your argument objectively. John Patrick has served me for decades, but I must re-evaluate those plays based on your strong evidence. Thanks.
Yeah ... I disagree with the "rule" #3 -- unless it is a single-deck game, the difference between a 2-card 16 and a 3-card 16 is negligible. If no surrender is available, hit it.
You say that like gambling is rational? You are correct that it is rational to play whatever hand has the best odds, what you forget it the game as a whole has worse odds even when playing basic strategy. You only logical way to play the game is to also count cards, and at that point you are not a gambler.
I stick to basic strategy, but I'm soooo tempted to not hit 12 vs. 2 or 3. Why? Because I get a 10-value card about 60% of the time. I think it's the card gods' way of laughing at me.
i'll be heading to Vegas in a few weeks, and like to hit the Black Jack tables between tourneys.. some of this is brand spankin new to me, and valuable info.. will be putting it to good use..!!
If you're a card counter it only takes a slightly positive count to make the decision to stay on a 16 versus dealer's 10. My computer model has been very favorable on this matter. Whenever the True Count is +1 or higher? I stay on ALL hard fourteens thru sixteens.. This isn't what some of the books say, but my own practical experience has proven otherwise. I will still hit my lower stiff hands. Such as the twelve and thirteen against dealer's ten. However once the TC goes to +5 I'll stay on ALL stiffs. Between +1 and +4 the chances of converting my twelve or thirteen to a pat hand of seventeen to twenty one are acceptable. This is because although lots of tens remain in the deck and could bust my hand? There are still a fair number of sevens thru nines that'll turn my stuff into a seventeen thru twenty one. These are my only indice changes based upon the count. Some counters memorize other more complicated patterns. However that'd be better off by searching for better games. Card counting books and forums often forget to recognize certain common sense strategies that will return better earnings. For starters? Knowing the best time to find heads-up situations in pitched games is a big advantage. Or finding a casino that doesn't have a very attentive pit boss is a good idea. Lastly, We all know that 6/5 blackjack is a bad game. However if the dealer allows me a 20 unit betting spread? It becomes an interesting game to me. Except whenever other players are at the table. Pitched games MUST be played heads up. No exceptions! You don't want those good cards going to other players sitting at the table.
@@steeloned The thing is Kinchman that the decision to hit or stay on a sixteen is greatly dependent upon the true count. If it's a +1 t/c you should always stay. Now if you don't understand what a "+1" t,/c or "plus 1 true count," then consider this. Even newly shuffled shoe has a T/C of 0. Meaning that exactly as many high cards are left on the deck as the low ones. But take out just one low card from this shoe and the T/C now becomes +1. And under these circumstances it is no longer advisable to hit your sixteen against the dealer's up card of 7. Or higher. Look at it this way, A 16 is a poor hand to hold. And with the dealer holding at least a 7 upcard? This means she's probably got you beat. And even in a slightly positive deck you've got an even smaller chance of improving on it without going bust. And so ar a mere +1 count I will always stay on my 16 against dealer's upcard of 7 or higher.
It baffles me that people will go to a casino and play blackjack and not even learn perfect basic strategy which is very easy to learn or memorize...I think some people just like Losing and believe that they're way of playing is better then perfect basic strategy, then they and the dealer get mad at you for playing correctly oh why did you hit the 12 versus two or three why did you double down soft 18 versus the six and they want to yell at you but they don't understand if everybody at the table was playing perfect basic strategy they would win more in the two three days they were staying at the casino... I sit out if somebody does something dumb and my hand loses.
I under stand splitting 8's to lift my chances from 23% to 38% chance of winning. But It also means I have to double my bet. I question if splitting and doubling my bet is the right strategy for such a small chance.
Yes, you only have 38% chance to win each hand. But don't forget that you have a chance to double once again if you get 11 with an 3. Therefore it is better to split in the long run I guess.
It's a small edge, but it is an edge. If you played 100 hands of 88 vs ten at $1 and just hit on 88 you lose $54 (77 times you pay $1, and 23 times you get $1). If you played 100 hands at $1 and split each time, you lose $48.(124 times you pay 1$, 76 times you get $1). It's only a few cents per $1 bet, but over bigger bets, and over thousands of hands it adds up.
I split because it is is the best play statisitcally. But it is not a hand I am happy to get dealt, because it does double the risk, and will often result in a double loss.
You can download blackjack basic strategy charts for FREE on our original website: www.americancasinoguidebook.com/blackjack/free-blackjack-strategy-charts.html
Google is your friend. Put "blackjack basic strategy" in the search field, and you will find a number of sites that will give you basic strategy charts. Br aware that there are some plays that change, depending on rule variations and number of decks, but those plays are close, so even using the strategy for a different rule set will make you far better off than if you're just guessing.
Good advice on playing these hands. I gave up playing blackjack many years ago, since I got tired of being beat by the dealer so often. I would have 19 or 20, then she would turn over 3, 4, 5 or 6 cards, and it wouldn't be 19 or 20 - it would be 21 almost every time. Seems very hard to win against 6 decks, even using basic strategy.
It’s not “very hard to win against 6 decks, even using basic strategy”. It’s IMPOSSIBLE!! Basic strategy isn’t a winning strategy. It just lowers the house edge to whatever its minimum is, based upon the rules of that particular game.
@@vietnamvet4533 Pai Gow, the only game where other players do not affect your game, except when they hit a big hand and you enjoy a piece of the action. I gave up blackjack because I got tired of obnoxious players compromising the entertainment value.
@@vietnamvet4533 it is NOT 50/50!! You will lose playing basic strategy only. You are guaranteed to lose playing just basic strategy, therefore it cannot be 50/50.
@@vietnamvet4533 my god, none of this is true. Please quit spouting off terrible information. Firstly, the absolute BEST case for blackjack has a house edge of 0.28% and those games don’t exist anymore. Secondly, with 6:5 blackjack today, the house edge is closer to 4% which is worse than proper basic roulette/craps by the way. Thirdly, you don’t tell a casino you’re a high roller. You either are or aren’t, and they will know because you’d be at a high limit table, and they’ll be watching your play, regardless of the game.
Are there specific literature saying that if a dealer gives too many chips for a win that you don’t have to give it back? Or if they place it next to your chips it’s already in your possession?
Anywhere you create a scenario of plausible deniability you have done nothing wrong. If they call you out on it, its likely they have surveillance tapes which will prove it is their money. Unless you want to get banned, give them their money. If you see an unattended machine with credits in it, just pop a fiver in there before you play them. If the chair is tilted up onto the machine or there is a jacket on the seat, its NOT an unattended machine.
Yes, 9s split on everything save for (a) 7, (b) 10, and (c) A. 12 hits on 2, 3 and 7-10, plus A 16 doesn't just hit against a 10, it hits against everything 7 or higher and, when you can surrender, that is against a 9, 10 or A Soft 18 hits on 9, 10 or A. Lastly, always split 8s, agree. This is identical to the Blackjack Basic Strategy Chart, which must be played perfectly in order to minimize casino vig
I've always hit a stiff 12 against a dealer's 3 upcard, BUT one thing you didn't mention is you don't hit it more than ONCE! (at least I don't) In your advice, some folks may take you to mean you keep hitting it until you have 17 or better, but I doubt that's what you meant.
You are correct. Once you hit it, you don't have a 12 any more, so you stand, even if you draw a card that doesn't get you to 17. And it's a fairly close play, so standing isn't a lot worse than hitting.
The _stand on hard 16 if it's made up of small cards_ rule convinced me it's best to play with lots of people on the table... so you can see even more high or low cards on the table.
ok question with that #1 mistake, with the two 8's vs a 10.... 23% to win but when you split it you said you have a 38% but you are doubling your money and NOT even doubling your percentage to win so if you go with percentage wise, arent you still losing more in the end.... Isn't it like poker where to by a plus eva player, you need the right amount of odds to justify the call here based on percentage, and other stuff..... well in this case don't i need at least 2 to 1 odds to be winning with my money thus need double the 23% which is 46% to make it worth risking double my money in a already losing position? The other tips i agree with but this one seems like it didn't factor in the money you are risking portion part and just basing it all on percentages and forgetting about what you are risking for those percentages?
Its a bad move. Your going to end up re-splitting and at times doubling after split and lose even more money. Is it mathematically correct to split and resplit 8's? Yes, but not nearly as profitable as he suggests. You would need to play a million hands before you would gain a tiny edge. So therefore its not practical.
@@clintrichardsonclintfromny203 I'm trying to think of any successful 8 splits I've had but usually it's just a mess of additional 8s followed by a couple of 3s that require doubling and you end up with 5 hands of 15 or busted which you end up losing 6-7 times your original bet because the dealer had 20
@@clintrichardsonclintfromny203 Two hands of 8 is still better than a 16 regardless what dealer has. No brainer you always split 8s. 16 is the worst starting hand in blackjack. I hope you understand what WORST means. 8 is a decent starting hand in blackjack Two decent hands>One worst hand Two hands of 8 vs 10 is not good but 16 against 10 is even worst. Think it like this: Would you rather have two decent fighters against a black belt or you would rather have a worst fighter vs a black belt? Which sounds better to you? Would you rather have a starting hand of 8 or 16? Answer those and then tell me if you still think splitting 8s is a bad idea. Now I know why Casino is making more profit and more profit every year. Because of you puppets always against logic and math in blackjack. Sad but that's the reality.
Do the math yourself in excel and you'll see you lose a lot less money in the long run splitting 8s. You don't need to play a million hands to see these results either like some other commenter suggests. It's a huge difference and absolutely worth it.
am I right to assume you always hit on 16 against a dealer's 10 in multi deck black jack? Unlike in the video when he talks about standing on 16 when it's 3 or more cards
well explain this in online casino they put at least 16 card decks into the shuffle and yet you don't know how many face cards in the half of the decks the dealer cuts you shouln't everytime play what in playbook says sometimes you have to ignore it what I mean is like not you shuold hit your 14 against 5 but maybe you should stop hitting 16 against 17 sometimes
I get that splitting 8s vs. 10 gives you a better chance of winning but is it cost effective to double your bet against a 10 starting with an 8 in your hand?
If you go by expected value, it is. If you do not split, your probability of winning is 23%. So, (assuming your bet is only $1, since any other bet would scale the results the same way) the expected amount you will win is (0.23)(+1)+(0.77)(-1)=-0.54. Now, if you split, 8 vs. 10 has a probability of winning of 38%. So, your expected winnings is (0.38)(+1)+(0.62)(-1)=-0.24. Double that, you get -0.48. Having an average loss of 48 cents per hand is better than having an average loss of 52 cents per hand, so splitting is better.
I have heard that soft 18 against a face should be treated differently if you have multiple cards with a 2 or 3 in your hand. In those cases I heard you should stay rather than hit. Especially true the more cards you have in your hand.
Here are the two exceptions you are refering to: on a s17 table and dealer showing an A the player should stand with these two hands: A-2-2-3 and A-3-3-A. Usually a soft 18 versus an ace is a hit, but not in these two cases.
13 vs 2 is a stand if you're only using basic strategy. If you're using the Hi-Lo card counting method, a 13 vs 2 becomes a hit starting at a -1 True count and anything lower.
about standing on 16 with more than 2 cards, is that still a thing? I understand the mathematics of it but my casino uses 8 decks it seems like that one card can't make much of a difference to justify standing
@@KelseyHubley yea whatever I cared so little about it knowing it won't affect anything but a single deck my brain didn't even bother to remember it It wasn't important enough to be specific
16 vs. 10 hitting depends on running count and not if it is a 3 card 16. If running count is already way negative you should hit 16 even if multiple cards 16.
I play Blackjack for many years I would say past 10 years a lot and there's people that go to casino and have never played in this one to learn as they play any game you had to at least know the basics at least before sitting down is too much troubles for the dealer or player to be trying to help people along the way but even some players who play a lot still have difficulties if they going to split or double do something so but it's close to never good when people that don't know how to play and they start their first time being at the table that's all you have to do is watch even if they watch for 20 minutes they don't even do that they just jump on the table
Here's a little tid bit if your learning to count cards. A deck of cards will end in 0 if you count correctly. Progressive betting strategy is as important as counting. Large swings in bets will put you on the pit bosses radar faster than anything.
#3 I assume that this is based off of single deck blackjack. In a 6, 7, or 8 deck having three low cards in your hand, compared to just two, pretty much changes nothing in regards to percentages.
@@onejdc Of course it matters. In this particular hand you have 18 of the 48 remaining cards that can help you. That is a 37.5% chance of improvement. If you don't have that 3rd card then you have 19 of 49 remaining cards that can help you. Which is a 38.78% chance of improvement If you were playing 8 decks you have 158 of the 412 cards that can help you. That is a 38.34% chance of improvement. Without that 3rd card then you have 159 of the 413 that can help you. That is a 38.50% chance of improvement. So in single deck your odds improve by 1.28% while in 8 deck it only improves 0.16%.
Most misplayed hands in my opinion: 1) they take insurance 2) they accept even money 3) they misplay soft totals especially soft 18 versus dealer 9-10-A 4) on a h17 table they dont double soft 19 versus dealer 6 5) on a s17 table they double 11 versus dealer A
@@DragonPupEclipse In a 3:2 game, taking even money on a blackjack is really just a shortcut for taking insurance for the maximum of half the original bet. If you take insurance on a blackjack, and the dealer has blackjack, you push the main bet and win the insurance bet, netting even money. If the dealer doesn't have blackjack, you win 3:2 on the blackjack, with the extra half bet paying for the losing insurance bet, again netting even money.
I know its an extremely niche case, but 9-9 against a 7 has to be an honorable mention. I find most players split this thinking their naked 9s have an advantage over the 7. They DO have an advantage, but 18 against a 7 is better than starting two hands with nines.
@@steeloned Technically yes. However, soft 18vs10 is different. Hitting on soft 18 is indeed the correct move in terms of mathematical expectancy. In this scenario the cards that can help your hand improve are: A, 2, & 3. Cards that give you the same hand are: 10, J, Q, K. Cards that can hurt your hand are: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. 7 cards either help you or put you in the same spot. 6 cards hurt your hand but you can still keep hitting to improve your hand due to it being a soft 18.
There's one answer not included that's more important than the explanations here - what is the count? Knowing if the deck favors you or does not favor you by tracking cards is key to the decisions. The most accurate answer should be - "here's the best move to make IF the deck mathematically helps". Yes, you can split 9-9 vs. 9, but only if the count favors you to do so. Hitting 12 vs. 13 is correct, but only if the count is correct to do so. Sometimes the best answer is the opposite of what is suggested here, depending on the count.
Not everyone is counting cards when they play. Some people, play just for fun and some only know basic strategy. Of course, if they count cards, I would agree with your statements.
The primary way that counting cards helps is by identifying when the composition of the shoe (more A's and 10's, fewer small cards) gives the player the advantage, allowing you to bet more. In a good game (decent rules and dealt reasonably deep), this will give you an advantage if you play basic strategy. Count-based strategy changes will increase that edge, but will not give you and edge by themselves, except in 3:2, deeply dealt single deck games (which don't really exist any more, anyway).
@@MrJitzing A pretty small percentage of blackjack players count cards, and an even smaller percentage do it well enough to actually gain an advantage. For that matter, most players make some errors in basic strategy, and a fair percentage are clueless.
Incidentally, hitting 12 against 3 is basic strategy. However if the true count is plus 2 you should stand. Neutral count of 0, 16 player should stand, stand 15 against true count plus 2. Double 10 against 10 or A up. Insure 10, 11, 20 against A plus 3. Insure all hands against A plus 6 or above. Should win over 70% of insurance bets. Don't split A against negative 6 or below. Hit don't split 8's against negative 6 true count. Otherwise your advice is competent. Consider baccarat best odds and most beatable game in the casino.
Hmmmm. This is not good advice. First of all, in no way is baccarat better odds than blackjack. Certainly not if the player is counting the cards correctly. About your advice in regards to strategy adjustments due to true count. 12 stops hitting against 3 at + .5 (true count)12 stops hitting against 2 at + 2.5 (TC). Concerning insurance, your hand is immaterial. At a true count of +3.7, the odds of a dealer ace making a blackjack are over 33.3%. That makes insurance (pays 2 to 1) a good bet. Based on your advice, I suspect you are not a very good card counter.
Reread your comment and noticed this: “ Should win over 70% of insurance bets.” 70%! Insurance NEVER even approaches 40% no matter what the count. It’s only 30.8% (4 out of 13) normally. In order to win 70% of your insurance bets, the deck would have have 7 out of 10 cards being a ten or a face. That’s not possible. Readers: this commenter is either stupid, ignorant, or deliberately (maliciously) giving bad advice to mess you up. Don’t listen to him/her/them.
@@baseballsux2 Thanks for your comments. I suggest you read Power Baccarat 2 by Byron Herbert for an authoritative comparison of the odds between the two games. Also the wizard of odds. As too basic strategy variations I think the theory of blackjack by Peter Griffin and also an old but very reliable book by Laurence Revere. Also some basic neutral plus 1 plus 2 ideas by Arnold Snyder. His unbalanced count he named the Red 7 is helpful. Unfortunately I'm getting older and for almost a decade I've been backed off flat betted and otherwise uninvited to play Blackjack in multiple States. Other countermeasures have also been employed by casinos to slow me down. When flat betting couldn't stop me I've been sometimes kicked out of several casinos. You're right about me not being very good as my camouflage and so forth has failed me several times. Thanks again.
@@baseballsux2 why don't you try using Wongs halves count or ITA research method. Granted you'll be counting 20% more cards but the improvement on both ties and insurance bets is dramatic. Betting correlation and playing efficiency as well as insurance is dramatically better than the Hi Low. Sorry you're stuck on high low parameters. Frankly little more than an introductory card counting method. Baccarat odds are dramatically better. Also no heat!
I agree with you on one point here only, rest all false. when player 16 and dealer showing 10, player can surrender. This one only right from this video rest all doesn't work in real time.
I know it’s probably taboo but I’ve asked casinos if I could double down on my blackjack. Some allow me to, some don’t. My thinking is I’m trying to get 2-1 instead of 6-5 or even 3-2 payouts. Note: I only do this when I’m up a bit and getting greedy.
This is Matt, I once won a blackjack tournament on the last hand because u was dealt a bj and the 3:2 pay off would have put me in second place but the 2:1 payoff from a double down won it for me. I had to argue with the pit boss to allow it but he let me
@@billwalker7556 no the game is just you against the dealer. Dont worry about others play. nobody knows what the next card is going to be. People like you just remember the times you lose, not the times you win because of another persons play.
Yes, more apt than you were to win 1 hand before splitting, however, you are much more likely to have 2 losing hands than 2 winning hands. He says later in the video that 18 is not a good hand in blackjack.
No shit sherlock. If Shaq were to shoot 30 3s a game in his prime he would be much more likely to hit one than if he had shot 1 3 a game. Wouldn't have helped his team win though now would it?
I was playing 1st base at Riviera,2nd player played $10 on 1 hand and $800 on anchor hand. Dealer showed a ten. His $10hand was a blackjack and $800 hand was 16. He surrendered $800 and was paid on his blackjack and left table. Dealer had a 20. Next hand I was dealt a 5. He would have made 21. He left table with $425 He would have $1625 if he hit the 16.
Stand on 16? I see it all the time from players who know better. Frustrating, and can really screw up the rest of the table. You can't play BJ with your gut. Stick to the strategy.
If you have a pair of 9s, and you win 9.5/20 times by splitting them, but you have to double your bet to do so, why not just take the 8/20 chance on a single bet, rather than doubling it for under 50% odds. Either way you have a losing hand, one option you don't invest more money into your losing hand. I don't get it.
guess you lose less over time even with doubling, just stole this logic from someone else in the comments. you bet 1 unit and dont split 200 times you win 80 units, lose 120. Down 40 units. you bet 2 units by splitting, 200 times, 400 with the split, you win 190 units, lose 210. Down 30 units.
For 8's vs. 10. Yes, splitting will lose less in the long run than hitting or standing, so I do it. But I cringe every time, because I am risking twice as much money on a losing proposition.
Free bet blackjack though. Rule number one only use the free bet if the book says you would normally split or double. Don’t take free bet outside the book unless playing pot of gold bonus
I disagree with the 3-card 16 advice. Three cards won't do much to the true count except, perhaps, in a single-deck game. If you're an advantage player, you might sometimes vary basic strategy based on the true count, but I don't know if this is one of those. Treat the 2-card and 3-card 16s the same.
Honestly the only moronic thing he said. If all you are doing is following basic strategy and not counting, than the fact your 3 cards are low means fuck all to the multiple decks you are playing. Even to a single deck it means very little. It's only when you are counting that you actually know when the probability of high cards increases.
When he says you'll win this or that amount of hands, 8 hands out of 20, hit you'll win 9 out of 20. Consider these suggestions. Please don't think you can beat this game, it will take everything. Keep it small, 50 bucks "run it up" have fun, get a free drink, go out to eat.
Yes. Basic strategy minimizes the house advantage. But the house still has an advantage. You will lose money in the long run. Card counting gives you an edge, in a decent game, but it's a small edge and you can still lose a lot of money, so you need a big bankroll to have a reasonable chance of success. And the casino will likely not let you play if they figure out you are counting. There are really only two rational approaches to gambling. Lean how to play with an advantage (impossible for most casino games, very difficult for a few casino games and still comes with a risk of losing a substantial amount of money), or treat gambling as entertainment, accepting that it's likely to cost you money, and only spending what you can afford. Only you can decide if the entertainment is worth the money. If the answer is "No.", don't gamble.
Im confused. He says if uou sureendsd uou lose 50% of your bet but if you hit and bust you would lose slightly more than 50%. Not a math guy buy wouldnt you lose 100% of your bet? or was he just talking about over the course of your playing career? if you did the exact same thing every time?
You do lose 100% of your bet. You surrender because losing half of your bet 100% of the time is better than losing your whole bet over 75% of the time.
8-8 against a dealer 10 and splitting seems odd. You go from 23% chance to win to 38%, but you are risking double. So I did the math... Scenario A: 100 bets at $1, win 23 and lose 77 times. $23-$77 = down $54 Scenario B: 100 bets at $2, win 38 and lose 62 times. $76-$124 = down $52 I guess splitting is right.
If the player and the Dealer trade places , would the odds still be in the dealers favor? I guess my question is , why is the Dealer so much Better at winning lol if you just do what the dealer does , wouldn't you win more than half the time?
That first one is easy. You must, because of the 4/13 of every deck being 10-value, assume until shown otherwise that the hole is a 10. 18 is just begging a lose, because, pretty much only a bust will win it. You're not in very good shape in the first place, and splitting the 9's might get you some back. The second one is counterintuitive, and sometimes I fall prey to this, because I am feeling I'm begging for a 10 when I hit on that, feeling that 10 could be better served on a 9 or 10 hole card on the house with that 3. Third one: Yeah, you're pretty much screwed on that one -- if you even get to the decision, 7 of the 12 cards are immediate losers to begin with. And only 5 of the 13 will help you. Surrender, if offered, is the correct play. He is correct in the other cases, which is kinda the opposite of what I often see if I know I'm not going to get a big number, but there's no choice there to begin with. Fourth: 18 is actually quite WEAK, since the dealer either must attain 17 or higher, or bust in the attempt. You ONLY win at 17, and, factually, you're better off tossing the 18 with a 9-up and you might get 2 cards which might improve you or, luckily, one! Fifth: Ouch. That's a wallet-emptier there. Because even the best play is a gutshot situation, you might end up with a pair of 18s, eat a 20, and what the guy says you fear comes to pass!
I disagree with the rationale on splitting the 8’s against the dealer 10 if the success rate improves fro 23% to 38% then it seems that simply surrendering the two 8’s is basically a 50% success rate
Surrendering actually has the same average for bets with a 25% success rate. Notice that for 50% success rate, you lose an average of $0 (you win as often as you lose), so you actually lose less than how much you would lose if you surrender.
Surrendering 8's versus a dealer ten becomes a 50/50 at a True Count of 1 or higher if you're using the Hi-Lo card counting method I believe. That's a playing deviation some counters will use as opposed to splitting at that count or higher.
@@Paul-vf2wl That would be break even. I think the deviation has such a slim margin of an advantage that that is why it is listed in expanded deviations charts on sites like BJA and other Blackjack resources. I honestly don't know what the positive EV percentile is on the deviation but it must be high enough to justify surrendering them as opposed to splitting them, otherwise professionals wouldn't have included it in their charts. I prefer to surrender them starting at that count against a face card.
I'll tell you how to beat blackjack right now. You gotta read this whole novel first. He couldnt be more wrong. Most people watching this video I assume are playing at a 15 min bet table which uses 8 decks there are 4 2's thru-6's in each deck, so thats 20 cards that help you multiply that by the 8 decks you're playing with and thats 160 cards that could move your hand into the 17+ range without busting. 1 card out've 160 cards isn't going to move the odds enough to make staying the right move. Now if you're playing 2 deck blackjack or single deck, thats different, maybe he's right but Ive been to many casinos and Ive never seen anything but 6 deck(higher stakes) and 8 deck(lower stakes). Surrender your 15-16 against 9,10, and ace. It's the correct move, dont worry about what would've happend on one particular hand. When I surrender and the next card would've given me 20-21, it doesnt faze me. I know Im doing the right thing. He's right that an 18 isn't quite good enough but he's wrong as well. If you have an 18 every single time, that means you're never going to bust, you would win alot of money. As the dealer's advantage is when you make a hand and they bust, you win. When they make a hand and you bust, they win. If you both bust, they win. Thats what gives them an edge of about .4%(if you're playing perfect basic strategy including surrender and never taking insurance, including even money). If you can have an 18 every time, that means you'd never go over, you would in fact be a winner. Only follow the staying on 16 if you're playing single or double deck, although it's a bad spot either way, the difference long term is probably like a 1/10 of a percent. You want to beat BJ? Well you can. Want to know how? 5 things, get a rewards card, follow perfect basic strategy, set a limit that you can stick to, be willing to bet heavy when you're up, and if you make a big score the next trip, go back to the same limit you had before. Say you're comfortable losing 1000 on a given trip to the casino. You play and lose 1000, stop, go home, do not chase. Say next time, after a couple shoes you're up 3000. Lock up a win, it doesnt really matter what the win is that you lock up, whatever you're comfortable with 500-1000-1500 all fine. Take the remaining money and shoot for the moon. If you lose it, walk away. If you win, lock up some more and continue shooting for the moon. Say you had a great night and won 6-7k. The next time you play you go back to that same 1k limit..if you lose, you stop...Just because you won the last time, you can't change your limit, blackjack is in the casinos favor but if you have tremendous dicipline and you're willing to walk away and willing to lock up wins and really go for it when you're up. Blackjack is beatable. Also with a player's card you can earn points redeemable for gift cards, free clothes, free anything really. Another thing you should do is when no one is looking and you're winning, slip some chips into your pocket, the less the casino knows about how much you're winning or if you're losing they think you're losing more, the better for you. My father had a 2k limit and over a 10 year period was up about 100k forget the 100s of rooms and gigantic dinners that he paid for with all his points. My dad just followed what I said. DISCIPLINE ... You can beat BJ without counting cards with discipline, locking up wins, and being super aggressive when you're up on a given session. Sadly, it's MUCH harder than what I just said. It takes a very special person to be able to do what I just said night in and night out. BUT it's possible.. good luck to everyone.
Please bear in mind that this is only true when following strict basic strategy. If you play with card counting strategies you also have to follow specific deviations from basic strategy. This means that e. g. sometimes you stand with a two-card 16 vs. T (if the count is high).
If you don’t study the game you’re playing, you’re just having fun. I’m going to start taking the 6-deck basic chart cards with me. Sell ‘em to other players. Since the damn Seminole hard rock doesn’t carry them.
Very few casinos offer surrender anymore. I agree with the other decisions except splitting 8's against a 10 or A......it's suicide......I'd rather hit my 88 and you'd be surprised how many times i get a 5 or 4
Agree, the % numbers don’t make sense to me lol. 23% to a 33% chance of winning? Still heavy chance i lose more money than I already was. i don’t quite understand that one
Just watched a player get wiped out on always split 8's. He got a pair then to 8's dealt to each pair which he re-split. I said it's getting scary and then the dealer dropped the hammer causing the player to lose it all off a reasonable starting bet.
@@west1343 Anecdotes are not proof of any strategy, especially anecdotes that ignore statistical evidence. Any result is possible in the short run (anyone who knows probability knows that variance is a thing). You especially cannot give me results of only one game and tell me it is proof of any strategy.
@@GaryLuKOTH Someone did the math and after 100 hands of splitting 8's the advantage is $2 vs just hitting them as a 16 over the entire 100 hands. When you factor that important info it changes ones outlook. Especially given that casinos know how to shuffle cards to come out in a high-low-high pattern much of the time.
@@jeffreyval9665 not sure what you mean by "both hands" I just had one in mind. I don't know what to say, that's what all the basic strategy charts for early surrender say to do and your comment didn't change my mind.
@@Andrew_Young majority of players never surrender a hand and when I said both hands I meant splitting 8's against a 10 rarely works and your better off just hitting.
@@jeffreyval9665 "when I said both hands I meant splitting 8's against a 10 rarely works" That makes sense, thanks for the clarification! As the mathematician in the video said, you should usually split. It's true that splitting doesn't give you a winning hand most of the time, because if you can you're supposed to surrender. It wouldn't make sense to surrender (give up half your bet) if you had a good hand. The only reason you should do that is when you would lose more than 50% of the time if you hit, stand, or split. "majority of players never surrender a hand" I don't care what the majority of players do, I care what the math says to do so I can lose less money than the majority of players.
Just ask " Why? What's the count?" They'll get meek and Say "I don't know" Then when you say "How can you tell me how to play the hand if you don't what the count is?" they will shut up and never bother you again. And you will not be kicked out because you're not saying that you're counting, only asking if the other guy is.
So many exceptions on multiple 16 versus dealer 10, examples 10-3-3, 10-2-2-2 is hit 10-4-2 is a stand in 6 decks but a hit with 8 decks General rule, if your multiple 16 contains a six but no five's or four's it's ususlly a hit. Very difficult hand to master.
why would i double my bet to give myself a 38 percent chance to win? odds improve from 23 percent, but still terrible odds. i'd rather surrender to a dealer's 10 and only lose 50% vs. 38%
I completely agree with you. They are both shit. I hate splitting 8s against a 10 and I definitely hate 16 against a 10. But I choose one that is better than the other. Splitting 8s against a 10 is better than hitting/standing on a 16 against a 10 and that’s a fact.
I mean, if you surrender, then you lose 50 cents for each dollar you bet (in the long run). If you split, then the amount you win on each hand is 0.38(1)+0.62(-1)=-0.24. Since you are playing two hands, that means that you lose an average of 48 cents in total if you split. That is better than losing 50 cents.
If you're going to play blacjack, by all means learn basic strategy. It puts you just short of even with the house, so you have a decent chance to win.
Can we include A-8 vs 6 as an honorable mention? Rarely do players double down on this hand. Even worse, whenever I double down on my A-8, at least one other player (and occasionally the dealer) will criticize or question my play. I don't take it personally, I just whip out the old basic strategy card and relish their reaction.
Don’t agree with some of this advice. As an avid player I can see how some of these tips are accurate, but I can also clearly see they are not. Do that against a 7 deck shoe! Single deck is much more manageable
i get so many dirty looks from other people at the table when I hit a 12 against a 2 or a 3
They’ll watch their stack lower and try to blame us.
Like how am I wrong my stacks goin up bud
It’s basic strategy which most players don’t play
Because they don’t know how to play
Blackjack player for years. This guy absolutely knows his stuff!
Except he forgot a lot of Casinos don't offer surrender
@@YamamotoKazuo He didn't forget. He specifically addressed if the casino doesn't offer surrender. 3:53
This only applies to single deck, hard to find a single deck game
@@filluptank And by hard you mean almost impossible...
@@filluptank They apply to multideck shoes as well.
Outstanding explanations of how to deal with certain hands you're sure to encounter even if you're only an occasional player, and the strategies and math behind them.
#3 I genuinely learned something on that one.
Great explanations on all the examples.
its false
Yeah, I was wondering how that worked on a 6 deck shoe.
I only play 3 and 1 differently, but your analysis is compelling. Giving me the probabilities illustrates your argument objectively. John Patrick has served me for decades, but I must re-evaluate those plays based on your strong evidence. Thanks.
Yeah ... I disagree with the "rule" #3 -- unless it is a single-deck game, the difference between a 2-card 16 and a 3-card 16 is negligible. If no surrender is available, hit it.
@@dashx1103 Since I count cards, I just go with hit if the count is zero or negative, otherwise stand.
@@russlehman2070 Counting cards always changes the dynamic. Most players are not counting.
I do like this video, the reasoning explained in a lucid, rational manner is superb, it helps fix the correct decisions enormously
You say that like gambling is rational? You are correct that it is rational to play whatever hand has the best odds, what you forget it the game as a whole has worse odds even when playing basic strategy.
You only logical way to play the game is to also count cards, and at that point you are not a gambler.
I stick to basic strategy, but I'm soooo tempted to not hit 12 vs. 2 or 3. Why? Because I get a 10-value card about 60% of the time. I think it's the card gods' way of laughing at me.
Yah, right? If I can bust, the dealer can too.
i'll be heading to Vegas in a few weeks, and like to hit the Black Jack tables between tourneys..
some of this is brand spankin new to me, and valuable info.. will be putting it to good use..!!
4:38 does this apply in a 6- or 8- deck shoe? 3 cards seem negligible.
Very helpful tips, thanks for the video.
This is great advice. I wish more people learned basic strategy before they played, or at least had a basic strategy chart with them
At no point did he say tell the player next to you what to do.or that their hand has anything to do with yours.
If you're a card counter it only takes a slightly positive count to make the decision to stay on a 16 versus dealer's 10.
My computer model has been very favorable on this matter. Whenever the True Count is +1 or higher?
I stay on ALL hard fourteens thru sixteens.. This isn't what some of the books say, but my own practical experience has proven otherwise.
I will still hit my lower stiff hands. Such as the twelve and thirteen against dealer's ten.
However once the TC goes to +5 I'll stay on ALL stiffs.
Between +1 and +4 the chances of converting my twelve or thirteen to a pat hand of seventeen to twenty one are acceptable. This is because although lots of tens remain in the deck and could bust my hand?
There are still a fair number of sevens thru nines that'll turn my stuff into a seventeen thru twenty one.
These are my only indice changes based upon the count. Some counters memorize other more complicated patterns.
However that'd be better off by searching for better games.
Card counting books and forums often forget to recognize certain common sense strategies that will return better earnings. For starters?
Knowing the best time to find heads-up situations in pitched games is a big advantage.
Or finding a casino that doesn't have a very attentive pit boss is a good idea.
Lastly,
We all know that 6/5 blackjack is a bad game. However if the dealer allows me a 20 unit betting spread?
It becomes an interesting game to me. Except whenever other players are at the table.
Pitched games MUST be played heads up. No exceptions! You don't want those good cards going to other players sitting at the table.
@@jorgecallico9177
Could you be more specific?
@@steeloned
The thing is Kinchman that the decision to hit or stay on a sixteen is greatly dependent upon the true count. If it's a +1 t/c you should always stay. Now if you don't understand what a "+1" t,/c or "plus 1 true count," then consider this.
Even newly shuffled shoe has a T/C of 0. Meaning that exactly as many high cards are left on the deck as the low ones. But take out just one low card from this shoe and the T/C now becomes +1.
And under these circumstances it is no longer advisable to hit your sixteen against the dealer's up card of 7. Or higher.
Look at it this way,
A 16 is a poor hand to hold. And with the dealer holding at least a 7 upcard?
This means she's probably got you beat. And even in a slightly positive deck you've got an even smaller chance of improving on it without going bust.
And so ar a mere +1 count I will always stay on my 16 against dealer's upcard of 7 or higher.
It baffles me that people will go to a casino and play blackjack and not even learn perfect basic strategy which is very easy to learn or memorize...I think some people just like Losing and believe that they're way of playing is better then perfect basic strategy, then they and the dealer get mad at you for playing correctly oh why did you hit the 12 versus two or three why did you double down soft 18 versus the six and they want to yell at you but they don't understand if everybody at the table was playing perfect basic strategy they would win more in the two three days they were staying at the casino... I sit out if somebody does something dumb and my hand loses.
@4:50...a sneaky introduction to card counting (and how it can mod. basic strat.)! haha
Is the green screen a picture of Belterra (riverboat)? It looks familiar! 🌞
Agree about surrender with 16 vs dealer 10, but most casinos don't offer that choice. If they did I would probably surrender a 15 also.
Yes, surrender 15 versus 10-A
Surrender 16 versus 9-10-A
And on a h17 table, surrender hard 17 and 8-8 versus dealer A
@@denisbussiere7442 I remember one dealer who was absolutely incredulous when I surrendered 17 vs. A on a H17 table.
@@russlehman2070 Good move. Doubling soft 19 on a h17 table will also raise eyebrows.
4:17 if i had a hard 15 with 3 or 4 cards where dealer has 7+ as face, what is my optimal play?
Stand
You’re probably playing a show with 416 cards 32 of every card. Hit
@@FreddyRuger-b6sfool
I under stand splitting 8's to lift my chances from 23% to 38% chance of winning. But It also means I have to double my bet. I question if splitting and doubling my bet is the right strategy for such a small chance.
I agree. Might be better to surrender.
Yes, you only have 38% chance to win each hand. But don't forget that you have a chance to double once again if you get 11 with an 3. Therefore it is better to split in the long run I guess.
It's a small edge, but it is an edge. If you played 100 hands of 88 vs ten at $1 and just hit on 88 you lose $54 (77 times you pay $1, and 23 times you get $1). If you played 100 hands at $1 and split each time, you lose $48.(124 times you pay 1$, 76 times you get $1). It's only a few cents per $1 bet, but over bigger bets, and over thousands of hands it adds up.
@@krisharkleroad8 never surrender two 8s, always split
I split because it is is the best play statisitcally. But it is not a hand I am happy to get dealt, because it does double the risk, and will often result in a double loss.
Wow great video. Just wondering.. is there anyway you can direct me to a cheat sheet for perfect blackjack strategy? Please let me know
You can download blackjack basic strategy charts for FREE on our original website: www.americancasinoguidebook.com/blackjack/free-blackjack-strategy-charts.html
Google is your friend. Put "blackjack basic strategy" in the search field, and you will find a number of sites that will give you basic strategy charts. Br aware that there are some plays that change, depending on rule variations and number of decks, but those plays are close, so even using the strategy for a different rule set will make you far better off than if you're just guessing.
Is this advice for single deck or does it work with multiple decks as well"?
Good advice on playing these hands. I gave up playing blackjack many years ago, since I got tired of being beat by the dealer so often. I would have 19 or 20, then she would turn over 3, 4, 5 or 6 cards, and it wouldn't be 19 or 20 - it would be 21 almost every time. Seems very hard to win against 6 decks, even using basic strategy.
It’s not “very hard to win against 6 decks, even using basic strategy”. It’s IMPOSSIBLE!!
Basic strategy isn’t a winning strategy. It just lowers the house edge to whatever its minimum is, based upon the rules of that particular game.
@@vietnamvet4533 Pai Gow, the only game where other players do not affect your game, except when they hit a big hand and you enjoy a piece of the action. I gave up blackjack because I got tired of obnoxious players compromising the entertainment value.
@@vietnamvet4533 it is NOT 50/50!! You will lose playing basic strategy only. You are guaranteed to lose playing just basic strategy, therefore it cannot be 50/50.
@@vietnamvet4533 my god, none of this is true. Please quit spouting off terrible information.
Firstly, the absolute BEST case for blackjack has a house edge of 0.28% and those games don’t exist anymore. Secondly, with 6:5 blackjack today, the house edge is closer to 4% which is worse than proper basic roulette/craps by the way. Thirdly, you don’t tell a casino you’re a high roller. You either are or aren’t, and they will know because you’d be at a high limit table, and they’ll be watching your play, regardless of the game.
@@1kenodave1 Players don't affect your hand in any game EXCEPT blackjack.
This is helpful, thanks!
A7 should hit against a dealer ace as well, correct?
Are there specific literature saying that if a dealer gives too many chips for a win that you don’t have to give it back? Or if they place it next to your chips it’s already in your possession?
Anywhere you create a scenario of plausible deniability you have done nothing wrong. If they call you out on it, its likely they have surveillance tapes which will prove it is their money. Unless you want to get banned, give them their money.
If you see an unattended machine with credits in it, just pop a fiver in there before you play them. If the chair is tilted up onto the machine or there is a jacket on the seat, its NOT an unattended machine.
Yes, 9s split on everything save for (a) 7, (b) 10, and (c) A.
12 hits on 2, 3 and 7-10, plus A
16 doesn't just hit against a 10, it hits against everything 7 or higher and, when you can surrender, that is against a 9, 10 or A
Soft 18 hits on 9, 10 or A.
Lastly, always split 8s, agree.
This is identical to the Blackjack Basic Strategy Chart, which must be played perfectly in order to minimize casino vig
You are amazing! Thanks for all your knowledge.....If only I can remember it all!!!
I've always hit a stiff 12 against a dealer's 3 upcard, BUT one thing you didn't mention is you don't hit it more than ONCE! (at least I don't) In your advice, some folks may take you to mean you keep hitting it until you have 17 or better, but I doubt that's what you meant.
You are correct. Once you hit it, you don't have a 12 any more, so you stand, even if you draw a card that doesn't get you to 17. And it's a fairly close play, so standing isn't a lot worse than hitting.
The _stand on hard 16 if it's made up of small cards_ rule convinced me it's best to play with lots of people on the table... so you can see even more high or low cards on the table.
How is taking Even Money and insuring a pair of 10's not part of this list? I see this happen a lot more often than most of the 5 listed here.
Insuring a pair of tens? What's that?
@@ramoncastanos1674 taking insurance when you have 20 against a dealer Ace
ok question with that #1 mistake, with the two 8's vs a 10.... 23% to win but when you split it you said you have a 38% but you are doubling your money and NOT even doubling your percentage to win so if you go with percentage wise, arent you still losing more in the end.... Isn't it like poker where to by a plus eva player, you need the right amount of odds to justify the call here based on percentage, and other stuff..... well in this case don't i need at least 2 to 1 odds to be winning with my money thus need double the 23% which is 46% to make it worth risking double my money in a already losing position? The other tips i agree with but this one seems like it didn't factor in the money you are risking portion part and just basing it all on percentages and forgetting about what you are risking for those percentages?
Its a bad move. Your going to end up re-splitting and at times doubling after split and lose even more money. Is it mathematically correct to split and resplit 8's? Yes, but not nearly as profitable as he suggests. You would need to play a million hands before you would gain a tiny edge. So therefore its not practical.
@@clintrichardsonclintfromny203 I'm trying to think of any successful 8 splits I've had but usually it's just a mess of additional 8s followed by a couple of 3s that require doubling and you end up with 5 hands of 15 or busted which you end up losing 6-7 times your original bet because the dealer had 20
@@Paul-vf2wl Same here. Most re-splits and doubles have been disastrous.
@@clintrichardsonclintfromny203
Two hands of 8 is still better than a 16 regardless what dealer has. No brainer you always split 8s.
16 is the worst starting hand in blackjack. I hope you understand what WORST means.
8 is a decent starting hand in blackjack
Two decent hands>One worst hand
Two hands of 8 vs 10 is not good but 16 against 10 is even worst.
Think it like this:
Would you rather have two decent fighters against a black belt or you would rather have a worst fighter vs a black belt? Which sounds better to you?
Would you rather have a starting hand of 8 or 16?
Answer those and then tell me if you still think splitting 8s is a bad idea.
Now I know why Casino is making more profit and more profit every year. Because of you puppets always against logic and math in blackjack. Sad but that's the reality.
Do the math yourself in excel and you'll see you lose a lot less money in the long run splitting 8s. You don't need to play a million hands to see these results either like some other commenter suggests. It's a huge difference and absolutely worth it.
am I right to assume you always hit on 16 against a dealer's 10 in multi deck black jack? Unlike in the video when he talks about standing on 16 when it's 3 or more cards
Could you go into table position and where the best seat is?
Unless you are hole carding, it doesn't matter. The only difference position makes is the closer to 3rd base you are the more time you have to think
first base is the purest hands dealt. third base if properly played is the most advantageous seat at the table and can influence other players hands.
@@billwalker7556 nothing you do influences another players hand in the long run, as their "mistakes" can also benefit you and are not realized.
#3 you have it wrong for a deck shoe game. You still have to keep hitting or give the casino the advantage
This does seem more like a single deck strategy
well explain this in online casino they put at least 16 card decks into the shuffle and yet you don't know how many face cards in the half of the decks the dealer cuts
you shouln't everytime play what in playbook says sometimes you have to ignore it what I mean is like not you shuold hit your 14 against 5 but maybe you should stop hitting 16 against 17 sometimes
I get that splitting 8s vs. 10 gives you a better chance of winning but is it cost effective to double your bet against a 10 starting with an 8 in your hand?
If you go by expected value, it is.
If you do not split, your probability of winning is 23%. So, (assuming your bet is only $1, since any other bet would scale the results the same way) the expected amount you will win is (0.23)(+1)+(0.77)(-1)=-0.54.
Now, if you split, 8 vs. 10 has a probability of winning of 38%. So, your expected winnings is (0.38)(+1)+(0.62)(-1)=-0.24. Double that, you get -0.48.
Having an average loss of 48 cents per hand is better than having an average loss of 52 cents per hand, so splitting is better.
It is a defensive play. You are hoping to just win one of the hands to break even. That is why you split 8s.
What were the 5 blackjack hands again, I keep falling asleep.
Knows his shit that fella. All his advice is 100% spot on.
I have heard that soft 18 against a face should be treated differently if you have multiple cards with a 2 or 3 in your hand. In those cases I heard you should stay rather than hit. Especially true the more cards you have in your hand.
Here are the two exceptions you are refering to: on a s17 table and dealer showing an A the player should stand with these two hands: A-2-2-3 and A-3-3-A. Usually a soft 18 versus an ace is a hit, but not in these two cases.
Yes that is the thing when I have a 12 I figure I will bust if I hit but if I don't hit I will lose anyway so might as well hit and take a chance.
What about 13 versus 2 dealer up card?
stay
i would assume that most people would stay
13 vs 2 is a stand if you're only using basic strategy. If you're using the Hi-Lo card counting method, a 13 vs 2 becomes a hit starting at a -1 True count and anything lower.
Wow this is really really good advice
Does the hard 16 hit vs a face card change with a large shoe? Is there a point in the true count where this changes?
no
The true count doesn't even have to be +1, if the running count is positive at all the correct play is to stand.
about standing on 16 with more than 2 cards, is that still a thing? I understand the mathematics of it but my casino uses 8 decks it seems like that one card can't make much of a difference to justify standing
I would hit it. Basic strategy says to still hit it especially if they have 6-8 decks and auto shuffler
I think he said stand on 3 or more cards for 16
@@KelseyHubley yea whatever I cared so little about it knowing it won't affect anything but a single deck my brain didn't even bother to remember it
It wasn't important enough to be specific
@@KelseyHubley thanks for your help though, and yes I absolutely still hit
16 vs. 10 hitting depends on running count and not if it is a 3 card 16. If running count is already way negative you should hit 16 even if multiple cards 16.
because everyone counts and tracks
@@donaldgalardi9813 If you dont, you are a loser.
Thank you. Solid advice.
I play Blackjack for many years I would say past 10 years a lot and there's people that go to casino and have never played in this one to learn as they play any game you had to at least know the basics at least before sitting down is too much troubles for the dealer or player to be trying to help people along the way but even some players who play a lot still have difficulties if they going to split or double do something so but it's close to never good when people that don't know how to play and they start their first time being at the table that's all you have to do is watch even if they watch for 20 minutes they don't even do that they just jump on the table
Thank you for this info. Black Jack is my hubby's favorite card game and I shared this video with him😁👍
Here's a little tid bit if your learning to count cards. A deck of cards will end in 0 if you count correctly. Progressive betting strategy is as important as counting. Large swings in bets will put you on the pit bosses radar faster than anything.
Progressive betting?
I’ve been playing for a few months now & got the hang of it, but I personally would always hold on a A,7. Now I know to hit!
it says to hit against 9 not just any card
He said against a nine or a ten
It should also hit against an ace. Furthermore, should be doubled against dealer 3,4,5, and 6.
@@aztecwarrior9729 For soft 18, hit against dealer 9, 10 or A, double down against 2-6, stand against 7 or 8.
#3 I assume that this is based off of single deck blackjack. In a 6, 7, or 8 deck having three low cards in your hand, compared to just two, pretty much changes nothing in regards to percentages.
... Uhm. It doesn't matter if this is a 1, 2, or 9 deck shoe. Having a 19/52 chance vs having 133/364 chance is the same 37% chance.
@@onejdc Of course it matters. In this particular hand you have 18 of the 48 remaining cards that can help you. That is a 37.5% chance of improvement. If you don't have that 3rd card then you have 19 of 49 remaining cards that can help you. Which is a 38.78% chance of improvement
If you were playing 8 decks you have 158 of the 412 cards that can help you. That is a 38.34% chance of improvement. Without that 3rd card then you have 159 of the 413 that can help you. That is a 38.50% chance of improvement.
So in single deck your odds improve by 1.28% while in 8 deck it only improves 0.16%.
One hand maybe, 5 years of nothing but 21 everyday. What's your life going to be like? If your bankroll even survives the first 31 days.
@@THE-RED-LETTER-PROJECT That comment makes no sense in this thread
Most misplayed hands in my opinion:
1) they take insurance
2) they accept even money
3) they misplay soft totals especially soft 18 versus dealer 9-10-A
4) on a h17 table they dont double soft 19 versus dealer 6
5) on a s17 table they double 11 versus dealer A
As more and more casinos are fazing out the 3:2 Blackjack in favor of 6:5 I take even money
@@Paul-vf2wl I agree
I see people taking even money all the time compare to take insurance.
@@DragonPupEclipse In a 3:2 game, taking even money on a blackjack is really just a shortcut for taking insurance for the maximum of half the original bet. If you take insurance on a blackjack, and the dealer has blackjack, you push the main bet and win the insurance bet, netting even money. If the dealer doesn't have blackjack, you win 3:2 on the blackjack, with the extra half bet paying for the losing insurance bet, again netting even money.
I know its an extremely niche case, but 9-9 against a 7 has to be an honorable mention.
I find most players split this thinking their naked 9s have an advantage over the 7. They DO have an advantage, but 18 against a 7 is better than starting two hands with nines.
That was the first one that came to mind before I started this video. I guessed the other 3 out of 5.
Isn't the average winning hand > 18?
@@steeloned Technically yes. However, soft 18vs10 is different. Hitting on soft 18 is indeed the correct move in terms of mathematical expectancy.
In this scenario the cards that can help your hand improve are: A, 2, & 3.
Cards that give you the same hand are: 10, J, Q, K.
Cards that can hurt your hand are: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
7 cards either help you or put you in the same spot.
6 cards hurt your hand but you can still keep hitting to improve your hand due to it being a soft 18.
@@Lidz2193
So technically you'd want to improve on your 9-9 against a 7 by splittng because the average winning hand is greater than 18.
@@steeloned No you would stand 9-9 against a 7 cause you want to assume dealer has a face card, flips a 17, and then you win the hand with your 18.
There's one answer not included that's more important than the explanations here - what is the count? Knowing if the deck favors you or does not favor you by tracking cards is key to the decisions. The most accurate answer should be - "here's the best move to make IF the deck mathematically helps". Yes, you can split 9-9 vs. 9, but only if the count favors you to do so. Hitting 12 vs. 13 is correct, but only if the count is correct to do so. Sometimes the best answer is the opposite of what is suggested here, depending on the count.
Not everyone is counting cards when they play. Some people, play just for fun and some only know basic strategy. Of course, if they count cards, I would agree with your statements.
The primary way that counting cards helps is by identifying when the composition of the shoe (more A's and 10's, fewer small cards) gives the player the advantage, allowing you to bet more. In a good game (decent rules and dealt reasonably deep), this will give you an advantage if you play basic strategy. Count-based strategy changes will increase that edge, but will not give you and edge by themselves, except in 3:2, deeply dealt single deck games (which don't really exist any more, anyway).
@@MrJitzing A pretty small percentage of blackjack players count cards, and an even smaller percentage do it well enough to actually gain an advantage. For that matter, most players make some errors in basic strategy, and a fair percentage are clueless.
This advice may be correct for US casinos but you should not split 88 v 10 if you lose both bets when the dealer has a blackjack.
Good advice thanks
The best advice I’ve ever heard
Incidentally, hitting 12 against 3 is basic strategy. However if the true count is plus 2 you should stand. Neutral count of 0, 16 player should stand, stand 15 against true count plus 2. Double 10 against 10 or A up. Insure 10, 11, 20 against A plus 3. Insure all hands against A plus 6 or above. Should win over 70% of insurance bets. Don't split A against negative 6 or below. Hit don't split 8's against negative 6 true count. Otherwise your advice is competent. Consider baccarat best odds and most beatable game in the casino.
Hmmmm. This is not good advice. First of all, in no way is baccarat better odds than blackjack. Certainly not if the player is counting the cards correctly.
About your advice in regards to strategy adjustments due to true count. 12 stops hitting against 3 at + .5 (true count)12 stops hitting against 2 at + 2.5 (TC). Concerning insurance, your hand is immaterial. At a true count of +3.7, the odds of a dealer ace making a blackjack are over 33.3%. That makes insurance (pays 2 to 1) a good bet.
Based on your advice, I suspect you are not a very good card counter.
Reread your comment and noticed this: “ Should win over 70% of insurance bets.”
70%! Insurance NEVER even approaches 40% no matter what the count. It’s only 30.8% (4 out of 13) normally. In order to win 70% of your insurance bets, the deck would have have 7 out of 10 cards being a ten or a face. That’s not possible.
Readers: this commenter is either stupid, ignorant, or deliberately (maliciously) giving bad advice to mess you up. Don’t listen to him/her/them.
@@baseballsux2 Thanks for your comments. I suggest you read Power Baccarat 2 by Byron Herbert for an authoritative comparison of the odds between the two games. Also the wizard of odds. As too basic strategy variations I think the theory of blackjack by Peter Griffin and also an old but very reliable book by Laurence Revere. Also some basic neutral plus 1 plus 2 ideas by Arnold Snyder. His unbalanced count he named the Red 7 is helpful. Unfortunately I'm getting older and for almost a decade I've been backed off flat betted and otherwise uninvited to play Blackjack in multiple States. Other countermeasures have also been employed by casinos to slow me down. When flat betting couldn't stop me I've been sometimes kicked out of several casinos. You're right about me not being very good as my camouflage and so forth has failed me several times. Thanks again.
@@baseballsux2 why don't you try using Wongs halves count or ITA research method. Granted you'll be counting 20% more cards but the improvement on both ties and insurance bets is dramatic. Betting correlation and playing efficiency as well as insurance is dramatically better than the Hi Low. Sorry you're stuck on high low parameters. Frankly little more than an introductory card counting method. Baccarat odds are dramatically better. Also no heat!
Shouldn’t a hard 15 surrender to a dealer ten (or face) as well?
I agree with you on one point here only, rest all false. when player 16 and dealer showing 10, player can surrender. This one only right from this video rest all doesn't work in real time.
People also misplay their weak aces (A2-A6). Could have an entire video just on this subject.
I know it’s probably taboo but I’ve asked casinos if I could double down on my blackjack. Some allow me to, some don’t. My thinking is I’m trying to get 2-1 instead of 6-5 or even 3-2 payouts.
Note: I only do this when I’m up a bit and getting greedy.
This is Matt, I once won a blackjack tournament on the last hand because u was dealt a bj and the 3:2 pay off would have put me in second place but the 2:1 payoff from a double down won it for me. I had to argue with the pit boss to allow it but he let me
I would not recommend it if its not tournament play though, you are risking a guaranteed win (as long as dealer isn't showing paint)
Any suggestions for how to play next to a guy who splits 10’s
Just ignore him. As many times as he will screw you up and make the dealer draw to 21, he will also make the dealer bust just as many times
only worry about your hand, not other peoples hands. It's you against the dealer, one on one. Just play your game.
@@alfienoakes1911 no. other players decisions can DEFINATELY effect your hand.
yes. move to another table
@@billwalker7556 no the game is just you against the dealer. Dont worry about others play. nobody knows what the next card is going to be. People like you just remember the times you lose, not the times you win because of another persons play.
The amount of cards you have doesn’t matter you surrender 16s against tens if you can hit if the count is under plus one or stand if its over.
Splitting 8s, the reason to do so : you're more apt to break even( win one, lose one) instead of just losing
Yes, more apt than you were to win 1 hand before splitting, however, you are much more likely to have 2 losing hands than 2 winning hands. He says later in the video that 18 is not a good hand in blackjack.
No shit sherlock. If Shaq were to shoot 30 3s a game in his prime he would be much more likely to hit one than if he had shot 1 3 a game. Wouldn't have helped his team win though now would it?
@@brianhammond2832 a hard 18 is good. Maybe not a soft 18 against a 9 or a 10.
this was one i didn't get, by splitting aren't you exchanging a crap hand for two marginally less crap hands🤔
I was playing 1st base at Riviera,2nd player played $10 on 1 hand and $800 on anchor hand. Dealer showed a ten. His $10hand was a blackjack and $800 hand was 16. He surrendered $800 and was paid on his blackjack and left table. Dealer had a 20. Next hand I was dealt a 5. He would have made 21. He left table with $425
He would have $1625 if he hit the 16.
Stand on 16? I see it all the time from players who know better. Frustrating, and can really screw up the rest of the table. You can't play BJ with your gut. Stick to the strategy.
I think A7 is the most misplayed hand I've seen. Consistently players mess that hand up.
If you have a pair of 9s, and you win 9.5/20 times by splitting them, but you have to double your bet to do so, why not just take the 8/20 chance on a single bet, rather than doubling it for under 50% odds.
Either way you have a losing hand, one option you don't invest more money into your losing hand. I don't get it.
guess you lose less over time even with doubling, just stole this logic from someone else in the comments.
you bet 1 unit and dont split 200 times you win 80 units, lose 120. Down 40 units.
you bet 2 units by splitting, 200 times, 400 with the split, you win 190 units, lose 210. Down 30 units.
For 8's vs. 10. Yes, splitting will lose less in the long run than hitting or standing, so I do it. But I cringe every time, because I am risking twice as much money on a losing proposition.
Wait a minute.......why did you not double down after splitting 8th's and getting a 2?
Thankyou
Free bet blackjack though. Rule number one only use the free bet if the book says you would normally split or double. Don’t take free bet outside the book unless playing pot of gold bonus
I disagree with the 3-card 16 advice. Three cards won't do much to the true count except, perhaps, in a single-deck game. If you're an advantage player, you might sometimes vary basic strategy based on the true count, but I don't know if this is one of those.
Treat the 2-card and 3-card 16s the same.
it is one of those. it s not even the true count. the odds are so close that is the running count is positive at all u stand
Honestly the only moronic thing he said. If all you are doing is following basic strategy and not counting, than the fact your 3 cards are low means fuck all to the multiple decks you are playing. Even to a single deck it means very little. It's only when you are counting that you actually know when the probability of high cards increases.
When he says you'll win this or that amount of hands, 8 hands out of 20, hit you'll win 9 out of 20. Consider these suggestions. Please don't think you can beat this game, it will take everything. Keep it small, 50 bucks "run it up" have fun, get a free drink, go out to eat.
Exactly.
Yep
Yes. Basic strategy minimizes the house advantage. But the house still has an advantage. You will lose money in the long run. Card counting gives you an edge, in a decent game, but it's a small edge and you can still lose a lot of money, so you need a big bankroll to have a reasonable chance of success. And the casino will likely not let you play if they figure out you are counting. There are really only two rational approaches to gambling. Lean how to play with an advantage (impossible for most casino games, very difficult for a few casino games and still comes with a risk of losing a substantial amount of money), or treat gambling as entertainment, accepting that it's likely to cost you money, and only spending what you can afford. Only you can decide if the entertainment is worth the money. If the answer is "No.", don't gamble.
Soft Aces ,and especially soft18 are often not doubled on dealer4-5-6 up card
What is the best thing to do in that situation?
Im confused. He says if uou sureendsd uou lose 50% of your bet but if you hit and bust you would lose slightly more than 50%. Not a math guy buy wouldnt you lose 100% of your bet? or was he just talking about over the course of your playing career? if you did the exact same thing every time?
You do lose 100% of your bet. You surrender because losing half of your bet 100% of the time is better than losing your whole bet over 75% of the time.
Here is thought always to keep in mind. whenever you are playing, "Casinos are not built on winners"
what about a 12 Versus a 2 ?
8-8 against a dealer 10 and splitting seems odd. You go from 23% chance to win to 38%, but you are risking double. So I did the math...
Scenario A: 100 bets at $1, win 23 and lose 77 times. $23-$77 = down $54
Scenario B: 100 bets at $2, win 38 and lose 62 times. $76-$124 = down $52
I guess splitting is right.
So after doing 100 Eight splits you can pocket $2. Not worth the extra risk.
@@west1343 Yeah, but based purely on long term stats, it's technically the right move
76 - 124 = -48. D'oh!
If the player and the Dealer trade places , would the odds still be in the dealers favor?
I guess my question is , why is the Dealer so much Better at winning lol
if you just do what the dealer does , wouldn't you win more than half the time?
The player has to go first and if the player loses, he is out of the game, even if the dealer later busts.
That first one is easy. You must, because of the 4/13 of every deck being 10-value, assume until shown otherwise that the hole is a 10. 18 is just begging a lose, because, pretty much only a bust will win it. You're not in very good shape in the first place, and splitting the 9's might get you some back.
The second one is counterintuitive, and sometimes I fall prey to this, because I am feeling I'm begging for a 10 when I hit on that, feeling that 10 could be better served on a 9 or 10 hole card on the house with that 3.
Third one: Yeah, you're pretty much screwed on that one -- if you even get to the decision, 7 of the 12 cards are immediate losers to begin with. And only 5 of the 13 will help you. Surrender, if offered, is the correct play. He is correct in the other cases, which is kinda the opposite of what I often see if I know I'm not going to get a big number, but there's no choice there to begin with.
Fourth: 18 is actually quite WEAK, since the dealer either must attain 17 or higher, or bust in the attempt. You ONLY win at 17, and, factually, you're better off tossing the 18 with a 9-up and you might get 2 cards which might improve you or, luckily, one!
Fifth: Ouch. That's a wallet-emptier there. Because even the best play is a gutshot situation, you might end up with a pair of 18s, eat a 20, and what the guy says you fear comes to pass!
I disagree with the rationale on splitting the 8’s against the dealer 10 if the success rate improves fro 23% to 38% then it seems that simply surrendering the two 8’s is basically a 50% success rate
Surrendering actually has the same average for bets with a 25% success rate.
Notice that for 50% success rate, you lose an average of $0 (you win as often as you lose), so you actually lose less than how much you would lose if you surrender.
Surrendering 8's versus a dealer ten becomes a 50/50 at a True Count of 1 or higher if you're using the Hi-Lo card counting method I believe. That's a playing deviation some counters will use as opposed to splitting at that count or higher.
A 50% success rate would imply you break even.
@@Paul-vf2wl That would be break even. I think the deviation has such a slim margin of an advantage that that is why it is listed in expanded deviations charts on sites like BJA and other Blackjack resources. I honestly don't know what the positive EV percentile is on the deviation but it must be high enough to justify surrendering them as opposed to splitting them, otherwise professionals wouldn't have included it in their charts. I prefer to surrender them starting at that count against a face card.
how about when the dealers up card is 10 80 out of 100 hands
I'll tell you how to beat blackjack right now. You gotta read this whole novel first.
He couldnt be more wrong. Most people watching this video I assume are playing at a 15 min bet table which uses 8 decks there are 4 2's thru-6's in each deck, so thats 20 cards that help you multiply that by the 8 decks you're playing with and thats 160 cards that could move your hand into the 17+ range without busting. 1 card out've 160 cards isn't going to move the odds enough to make staying the right move. Now if you're playing 2 deck blackjack or single deck, thats different, maybe he's right but Ive been to many casinos and Ive never seen anything but 6 deck(higher stakes) and 8 deck(lower stakes). Surrender your 15-16 against 9,10, and ace. It's the correct move, dont worry about what would've happend on one particular hand. When I surrender and the next card would've given me 20-21, it doesnt faze me. I know Im doing the right thing.
He's right that an 18 isn't quite good enough but he's wrong as well. If you have an 18 every single time, that means you're never going to bust, you would win alot of money. As the dealer's advantage is when you make a hand and they bust, you win. When they make a hand and you bust, they win. If you both bust, they win. Thats what gives them an edge of about .4%(if you're playing perfect basic strategy including surrender and never taking insurance, including even money). If you can have an 18 every time, that means you'd never go over, you would in fact be a winner.
Only follow the staying on 16 if you're playing single or double deck, although it's a bad spot either way, the difference long term is probably like a 1/10 of a percent.
You want to beat BJ? Well you can. Want to know how? 5 things, get a rewards card, follow perfect basic strategy, set a limit that you can stick to, be willing to bet heavy when you're up, and if you make a big score the next trip, go back to the same limit you had before.
Say you're comfortable losing 1000 on a given trip to the casino. You play and lose 1000, stop, go home, do not chase. Say next time, after a couple shoes you're up 3000. Lock up a win, it doesnt really matter what the win is that you lock up, whatever you're comfortable with 500-1000-1500 all fine. Take the remaining money and shoot for the moon. If you lose it, walk away. If you win, lock up some more and continue shooting for the moon. Say you had a great night and won 6-7k. The next time you play you go back to that same 1k limit..if you lose, you stop...Just because you won the last time, you can't change your limit, blackjack is in the casinos favor but if you have tremendous dicipline and you're willing to walk away and willing to lock up wins and really go for it when you're up. Blackjack is beatable. Also with a player's card you can earn points redeemable for gift cards, free clothes, free anything really. Another thing you should do is when no one is looking and you're winning, slip some chips into your pocket, the less the casino knows about how much you're winning or if you're losing they think you're losing more, the better for you. My father had a 2k limit and over a 10 year period was up about 100k forget the 100s of rooms and gigantic dinners that he paid for with all his points. My dad just followed what I said. DISCIPLINE ... You can beat BJ without counting cards with discipline, locking up wins, and being super aggressive when you're up on a given session. Sadly, it's MUCH harder than what I just said. It takes a very special person to be able to do what I just said night in and night out. BUT it's possible.. good luck to everyone.
So if I ended up with a 19 for all future hands that I played, would I end up a winner? I'm guessing yes.
Please bear in mind that this is only true when following strict basic strategy. If you play with card counting strategies you also have to follow specific deviations from basic strategy. This means that e. g. sometimes you stand with a two-card 16 vs. T (if the count is high).
You are correct
Watching that "dealer" was painful. Would it have been so hard to get an actual casino dealer for this?
If you don’t study the game you’re playing, you’re just having fun. I’m going to start taking the 6-deck basic chart cards with me. Sell ‘em to other players. Since the damn Seminole hard rock doesn’t carry them.
Very few casinos offer surrender anymore.
I agree with the other decisions except splitting 8's against a 10 or A......it's suicide......I'd rather hit my 88 and you'd be surprised how many times i get a 5 or 4
Agree, the % numbers don’t make sense to me lol. 23% to a 33% chance of winning? Still heavy chance i lose more money than I already was. i don’t quite understand that one
@@TrevOnlySimps “Still heavy chance i lose more money than I already was” How do you know? Did you actually calculate the chances?
Just watched a player get wiped out on always split 8's. He got a pair then to 8's dealt to each pair which he re-split. I said it's getting scary and then the dealer dropped the hammer causing the player to lose it all off a reasonable starting bet.
@@west1343 Anecdotes are not proof of any strategy, especially anecdotes that ignore statistical evidence. Any result is possible in the short run (anyone who knows probability knows that variance is a thing). You especially cannot give me results of only one game and tell me it is proof of any strategy.
@@GaryLuKOTH Someone did the math and after 100 hands of splitting 8's the advantage is $2 vs just hitting them as a 16 over the entire 100 hands.
When you factor that important info it changes ones outlook. Especially given that casinos know how to shuffle cards to come out in a high-low-high pattern much of the time.
Is this single deck advice?
ill admit sometimes when I have a hard 12 against a 2 i will double down
I've done that.. but not often.
That makes little sense to me since a 2 is a fairly strong dealer card. Wouldn't it be a better idea to double the 12 against his 4,5 or 6?
I heard you surrender a pair of 8s against a 10 if the casino offers early surrender
Just take the hit and hope for a 4 or 5 but never split 8's against a 10 chances are your losing both hands.
@@jeffreyval9665 not sure what you mean by "both hands" I just had one in mind. I don't know what to say, that's what all the basic strategy charts for early surrender say to do and your comment didn't change my mind.
@@Andrew_Young majority of players never surrender a hand and when I said both hands I meant splitting 8's against a 10 rarely works and your better off just hitting.
@@jeffreyval9665 "when I said both hands I meant splitting 8's against a 10 rarely works" That makes sense, thanks for the clarification! As the mathematician in the video said, you should usually split. It's true that splitting doesn't give you a winning hand most of the time, because if you can you're supposed to surrender. It wouldn't make sense to surrender (give up half your bet) if you had a good hand. The only reason you should do that is when you would lose more than 50% of the time if you hit, stand, or split.
"majority of players never surrender a hand" I don't care what the majority of players do, I care what the math says to do so I can lose less money than the majority of players.
Always splitting 8s and aces. I am not sure how hard is for people to memorize that. It’s the easiest part to remember in basic strategy.
single deck or ?
Dave Ramsey wouldn't be too happy with this mess of a system. Baby steps work. People have a spending problem not a math problem.
Thank you I hit a 12 against a 3 and another player at the table went berserk on me
Came to the comments to see this exact situation... I knew this would've or has happened..
I usually get a ten, when I hit on twelve. Sometimes, you have to though. Good to know I was right.
I always hit 12 against a two and a three unless I know based on card counting that it's 10 rich then I stand. But more often than that I will hit it.
I wouldn't care what another player thought. Play your own hand.
Just ask " Why? What's the count?" They'll get meek and Say "I don't know" Then when you say "How can you tell me how to play the hand if you don't what the count is?" they will shut up and never bother you again. And you will not be kicked out because you're not saying that you're counting, only asking if the other guy is.
That 16 with 3 or more cards catches almost everyone. They all want to always hit or stay on all 16s no matter what
So many exceptions on multiple 16 versus dealer 10, examples
10-3-3, 10-2-2-2 is hit
10-4-2 is a stand in 6 decks but a hit with 8 decks
General rule, if your multiple 16 contains a six but no five's or four's it's ususlly a hit. Very difficult hand to master.
having a 16 with several small cards is almost meaningless if playing against an 8 deck shoe.
why would i double my bet to give myself a 38 percent chance to win? odds improve from 23 percent, but still terrible odds. i'd rather surrender to a dealer's 10 and only lose 50% vs. 38%
I completely agree with you. They are both shit. I hate splitting 8s against a 10 and I definitely hate 16 against a 10. But I choose one that is better than the other. Splitting 8s against a 10 is better than hitting/standing on a 16 against a 10 and that’s a fact.
I mean, if you surrender, then you lose 50 cents for each dollar you bet (in the long run). If you split, then the amount you win on each hand is 0.38(1)+0.62(-1)=-0.24. Since you are playing two hands, that means that you lose an average of 48 cents in total if you split. That is better than losing 50 cents.
If you're going to play blacjack, by all means learn basic strategy. It puts you just short of even with the house, so you have a decent chance to win.
What about 12 vs 12
Can we include A-8 vs 6 as an honorable mention? Rarely do players double down on this hand. Even worse, whenever I double down on my A-8, at least one other player (and occasionally the dealer) will criticize or question my play. I don't take it personally, I just whip out the old basic strategy card and relish their reaction.
Belief trumps logic every time in this world no matter what facts you have on your side.
I think you mean A-7 against a dealer 6.. You always stay on A-8 no matter what..
@@OCPARKWAY A-8 doubles against dealer 6 on H17 tables (when dealer hits on soft 17, if dealer stands on soft 17, always stand A-8)
@@eduardoxenofonte4004 Interesting.. I guess it's important to try and find a game that the dealer doesn't hit on soft 17..
Double downs whenever and wherever possible, that's where the money is.
Don’t agree with some of this advice. As an avid player I can see how some of these tips are accurate, but I can also clearly see they are not. Do that against a 7 deck shoe! Single deck is much more manageable
Oh! So I'm going to get 10s on my split 9s?
I saw that too. 😉
Yup no chance you'll get a 6 and a 7 none at all