2:30 why does everyone use the regular sp 500, Use the sp 500 total return chart , instead of x15 ur money it would stuill be x30. It gives the wrong insentive since the return is alot higher then just the sp500 chart
What I also don't like is the un-nuanced view that if something is double the price than the same thing 10 years ago, you have double the risk, something like that. That does not take into account that the company could have gotten a lot better, with better prospects, better assets, better management, and thus have lower risk at a higher price.
@@ubermons Sven is giving a oversimplified hypothetical scenario to make a point for an exuberant market. The reality is definitely more nuanced like you said.
Yes you are right. He does say that usually and thinks that. He just forgot to mention it. You should always compare the price to the potential value creation at any point in time. For the SP500 he looks at PE and low dividend yield compared to the average. So the price went up and the value went up. But the price went up a lot more than the value went up. So higher risk of the value not being able to cover the higher prices in the future, so lower expected yield.
@Value-Investing thanks sven! I haven't watched the video earlier because I'm still at work, but I just commented early so that you'd notice because it's among the earliest comments 😃 I'm so excited to watch this after work! About coal, I just thought you might be interested about it because lots of people are bearish about it due to the fad on renewable energies, so it (and businesses about it) might be so cheap, but that of course still has lots value because the whole world can't just entirely start using renewable energies within a couple of years or so..
I didn't hear any evaluation on dividend yield vs buybacks. If a company buys back stock, it will have a low dividend yield, but they can easily choose to do a dividend instead. A lot of companies have done buybacks due to tax reasons, so looking at the overall dividend yield is no good. You have to look at the free cash flow yield.
@@faronskelton4085Buybacks by default, regardless of valuation , is what sucks. Apple bought back more shares (7-10%) with a smaller buyback program in the mid-2010s (when Buffett bought) than today with their record 110b (under 3%).
@@faronskelton4085Costco has a better capital allocation strategy in this respect. It acknowledges its massive overvaluation, hoards cash, and distributes regular special dividends for you to reinvest as you see fit, as opposed to wasting the capital paying absurd multiples for its own shares.
@@Value-Investing buy backs sucks if companies do it at higher valuation like what dollar general did in 2020 2021 and 2022 but they usually do it at high valuation which sucks...but if a company buy back at a low valuation isnt this good?
It is a bubble now and it was a bubble before a year. But that bubble is going up and shorters are being slauhtered every day. There are no any signs that this will ever burst. I ve never seen so hard bubble in the past. 2008 wasn't so big bubble, valuations were normal then. Now only places without bubble is China or Brazil or some other exotic place far from EU or US.
Isn't a bubble only recognized in hindsight? Otherwise no bubble can ever take form. I'll go even further... If you see a bubble forming, does that mean you need to stay out of it? No... You'll miss on the gains. But limit the risk.
Not because they know for sure it's a bubble, but simply not cheap anymore. It could develop into a bubble into the future 1 year, 5 year, etc. but yes only hindsight can confirm. Anyway, the word "bubble" is good for headlines and views so I don't fault Sven for using it, since the actual content is valuable. Staying in a bubble to take advantage of the gains sounds really scary to me 🥹 You don't know when such things can revert. It'll be hard to sleep at night every night. Focus on fundamentals are out the window and you're stuck following the greater fool theory.
@@PrasantCroissant Indeed that is the risk. I think the content is always valuable btw, but I ask myself the question: yes, it 'seems' safer to buy value but in the meantime the train isn't stopping. So, I'm keeping a small ratio in the S&P bubble, let's call it that. My value picks are not taking off yet (energy, PE holdings, real estate, are all quite low but stay low).
@@ren7sp25 I see the appeal. I think Benjamin Graham said, speculation can be really exciting, fun and even profitable sometimes. If you want to play on the speculation, a prudent Investor should set aside only a small portion for speculation and play with that money separately from the larger portfolio. But keep it in separate accounts so as to not mix up the two different mindsets and strategies while investing in your main portfolio. All the best on your investing journey 👍
A 10% dividend at 30-40x earnings? Lol Apple already distributes 100% of its earnings for a miserable sub-3% yield. So does Salesforce, for an even more miserable yield. You don’t seem to know what you are saying.
Hey Sven! What do you think of Altria Group stock? I believe it's an undervalued gem in an overvalued market. It's a great reliable business with a history of dividend increases for over 50 years and it is currently trading for a price i believe is very cheap. But I am only 18 and am very new to this so what do you think?
IOUs lie, gold tells the truth. Dow $380 in 1929, $38,000 in 2024. Dow 18 ounces gold in 1929, 18 ounces 2024. One million dollars bought 50 new houses in 1964, buys 2 new houses in 2024, one if in California. Sometimes, don't buy, don't lose.
Because the bubble can/has lasted longer than a year. If it is sunny and dry for 60 days straight in Texas do u complain that the weatherman reports the weather accurately? 🤨 Don't shoot the messenger.
Sven is working super HARD in these last weeks, many videos about bubble! Lets go sven, keep delusional! sp500 +40% LAST YEAR, where is value investing sir?
Very interesting discussion. I find these provide a lot of value, and we also get to hear a little about your actual holdings :)
Thank you gentleman!
the blurring effect is annoying
I only listen...
.
I didn’t notice because I was listening.
I disagree.
Video after video, I keep on learning new things! Great content again!
Show us your Track record over 10 years
@27:47 Have been looking forward to your thoughts on oil. Good to see it's on your radar.
Awesome video, Sven is like an European Buffett 😀
Great video!
2:30 why does everyone use the regular sp 500, Use the sp 500 total return chart , instead of x15 ur money it would stuill be x30. It gives the wrong insentive since the return is alot higher then just the sp500 chart
good point, but also the dividend is now 1%, and not 4% like it used to be, just something to keep in mind!
Nice video! What is your take on Reits? Ty!
The key to understanding inflation is to understand what money is.
Thanks for sharing
thanks Sven great conversation
Still love dividends, they are still out there if you look!
What I also don't like is the un-nuanced view that if something is double the price than the same thing 10 years ago, you have double the risk, something like that. That does not take into account that the company could have gotten a lot better, with better prospects, better assets, better management, and thus have lower risk at a higher price.
@@ubermons Sven is giving a oversimplified hypothetical scenario to make a point for an exuberant market. The reality is definitely more nuanced like you said.
Yes you are right. He does say that usually and thinks that. He just forgot to mention it. You should always compare the price to the potential value creation at any point in time. For the SP500 he looks at PE and low dividend yield compared to the average. So the price went up and the value went up. But the price went up a lot more than the value went up. So higher risk of the value not being able to cover the higher prices in the future, so lower expected yield.
Good point, but the index can improve earning, that is a 2x, market 4x
U have to input "all else equal" which is implied when you listen to an economist.
Gold from 1980 to present when adjusted for inflation was a poor investment. With miners you need to sort through 40 companies for the one gem.
@@thewonderof06790 Well said!
I prefer bitcoin and it’s paid off very well for me
Agree
People get really butthurt when you can a bubble a bubble 😂
:-)
Keep up the good work.
Hi Sven..what is your view regarding coal in developing countries? And also in big economy countries like China and India?
Have to dig into that one!
@Value-Investing thanks sven!
I haven't watched the video earlier because I'm still at work, but I just commented early so that you'd notice because it's among the earliest comments 😃 I'm so excited to watch this after work!
About coal, I just thought you might be interested about it because lots of people are bearish about it due to the fad on renewable energies, so it (and businesses about it) might be so cheap, but that of course still has lots value because the whole world can't just entirely start using renewable energies within a couple of years or so..
There are a lot of net nets in the japanese market. How you think about investing in Japan Sven?
Yes, but they will keep the money for them
I started going through the Japanese exchanges a while back and eventually quit: no growth, no yields. Where is your future return going to come from?
I didn't hear any evaluation on dividend yield vs buybacks. If a company buys back stock, it will have a low dividend yield, but they can easily choose to do a dividend instead. A lot of companies have done buybacks due to tax reasons, so looking at the overall dividend yield is no good. You have to look at the free cash flow yield.
Strongly disagree! Buybacks suck!
If issuing stock dilutes you as investor, why would buying back stock suck?
@@faronskelton4085Buybacks by default, regardless of valuation , is what sucks. Apple bought back more shares (7-10%) with a smaller buyback program in the mid-2010s (when Buffett bought) than today with their record 110b (under 3%).
@@faronskelton4085Costco has a better capital allocation strategy in this respect. It acknowledges its massive overvaluation, hoards cash, and distributes regular special dividends for you to reinvest as you see fit, as opposed to wasting the capital paying absurd multiples for its own shares.
@@Value-Investing buy backs sucks if companies do it at higher valuation like what dollar general did in 2020 2021 and 2022 but they usually do it at high valuation which sucks...but if a company buy back at a low valuation isnt this good?
It is a bubble now and it was a bubble before a year. But that bubble is going up and shorters are being slauhtered every day. There are no any signs that this will ever burst. I ve never seen so hard bubble in the past.
2008 wasn't so big bubble, valuations were normal then.
Now only places without bubble is China or Brazil or some other exotic place far from EU or US.
Bubble could last 5-10 years. Just fyi 😊 you could end up waiting years for the epic recession
Nobody is waiting for anything. Didn’t he say he is fully invested? We are simply not invested in companies trading at idiotik multiples.
Nice!
Thanks!
Isn't a bubble only recognized in hindsight? Otherwise no bubble can ever take form. I'll go even further... If you see a bubble forming, does that mean you need to stay out of it? No... You'll miss on the gains. But limit the risk.
correct, only popping makes a bubble a bubble!
@@Value-Investingyes, and I added a part., sorry :) The question always remains 'when Will it pop'.
Not because they know for sure it's a bubble, but simply not cheap anymore. It could develop into a bubble into the future 1 year, 5 year, etc. but yes only hindsight can confirm. Anyway, the word "bubble" is good for headlines and views so I don't fault Sven for using it, since the actual content is valuable.
Staying in a bubble to take advantage of the gains sounds really scary to me 🥹 You don't know when such things can revert. It'll be hard to sleep at night every night. Focus on fundamentals are out the window and you're stuck following the greater fool theory.
@@PrasantCroissant Indeed that is the risk. I think the content is always valuable btw, but I ask myself the question: yes, it 'seems' safer to buy value but in the meantime the train isn't stopping. So, I'm keeping a small ratio in the S&P bubble, let's call it that. My value picks are not taking off yet (energy, PE holdings, real estate, are all quite low but stay low).
@@ren7sp25 I see the appeal. I think Benjamin Graham said, speculation can be really exciting, fun and even profitable sometimes. If you want to play on the speculation, a prudent Investor should set aside only a small portion for speculation and play with that money separately from the larger portfolio. But keep it in separate accounts so as to not mix up the two different mindsets and strategies while investing in your main portfolio.
All the best on your investing journey 👍
Why use a clickbait title?? Where's the "confronting"??
who cares
:-))
:-)
@@Viper4ever05He does.
@@Value-Investing😂
Companies in the SP500 can declare a dividend of 10% today. They don't do it, because they want to grow...
A 10% dividend at 30-40x earnings? Lol
Apple already distributes 100% of its earnings for a miserable sub-3% yield.
So does Salesforce, for an even more miserable yield.
You don’t seem to know what you are saying.
Dumb comment.
Comment section needs to calm down. Just watch the video or not. Be constructive
Hey Sven! What do you think of Altria Group stock? I believe it's an undervalued gem in an overvalued market. It's a great reliable business with a history of dividend increases for over 50 years and it is currently trading for a price i believe is very cheap. But I am only 18 and am very new to this so what do you think?
Don't invest, hold gold, honest money. Don't hold IOUs, dishonest lying money. Protect yourself.
IOUs lie, gold tells the truth. Dow $380 in 1929, $38,000 in 2024. Dow 18 ounces gold in 1929, 18 ounces 2024. One million dollars bought 50 new houses in 1964, buys 2 new houses in 2024, one if in California. Sometimes, don't buy, don't lose.
One year, Always the same video. It Is a bubble, It Is a bubble, It Is a bubble
But he is right. That doesnt mean this cant last much more.
It's not the message of these videos..😅
the message is to invest in a smart way, so whatever happens in the environment, you LL be fine
And comments like this are the reason why the bubble keeps growing. The burst will be epic
Yes? He is correct? So what’s the problem?
Because the bubble can/has lasted longer than a year. If it is sunny and dry for 60 days straight in Texas do u complain that the weatherman reports the weather accurately? 🤨 Don't shoot the messenger.
Sven is working super HARD in these last weeks, many videos about bubble! Lets go sven, keep delusional! sp500 +40% LAST YEAR, where is value investing sir?
Sven e' prudente, mi piace per questo.
This year that gentleman is doing +70% with Liberty...
Hard to be a value investor today, but there is a reason!