Revamping the FREE Value Investing Course this winter, JOIN! A comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-investing
the first of your videos about the current bubble that i watched was 4/5 years ago, if i had followed your advise, i would have lagged the market by 50%. Guys, be humble, just buy index funds a go to sleep, the only bubble we are able to call is the one that has already happened!
SPY is up 90% over the past 5 years: that's a 13.7% cagr. Last time he reported on his model portfolio, the performance was around 12%, and that was prior to the Liberty spinoff. Not too different. The difference is that his strategy can be executed 100% of the time, while the S&P500 (or any other index anywhere in the planet) has never returned anything from 30x earnings over a 10-15 year horizon.
@ he has no strategy, he makes DCF based on his on assumptions. A 12% return doesn’t only lag the market as you said, but it comes by taking greater risks, because you are not diversifying. Lower returns and higher risks, and if you are not as good as he is in making your dcf assumptions, following his advice is the right way to a financial disaster. Just buy the market guys, stop pretending to be warren buffet
@@mdanese0Stock market is the most overpriced since 2000. I hope you know that 16 years of no returns followed. So calling this market less risky is very funny. Returns made by PE expansion only never last. Mean reversion is real and happening all the time.
I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Judith Lynn Staufer for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
I reached $138k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and insights you've shared with me over the past few months. I began this journey in October 2024. Financial education is essential for over 70% of the population, as only a few are truly literate in this area. Thanks so much Charlotte Grace Miller.
I'm celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. started this journey with 6k. I have invested on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
Good morning Dr sven I was looking 500 companies that pays dividends but each of them didn't make money from revenues. this insane most people just gambling with their life savings. found around 25-30 companies that can effectively pay their dividends cause they were making profits. well just wanted share with you my thoughts thank you happy Holidays
I agree totally...most people think passive investment is more safe, but they don't look the past charts and don't understand that it's better to own great businesses in portfolio
Sven, while I invest in very different companies from you (except my bet on the food cycle), I am so thankful for your e-book for teaching me how to do my own analysis. I have done really well ever since. I have also learned that most wall street analysts simply follow the market, and their price targets don't really mean crap.
All In Berkshire Hathaway is the best way to go. Good value, good management, grinding up intrinsic value and tons of cash to defend and then offend. Get a few 20% out of the money puts for life insurance on Buffett roll them ahead as it grows. Get 2-3% of crazy crypto on the side and let run.
I like irrational markets! Working on getting to 30% cash just like my Berkshire shares. It's nice to make money every year, but not a requirement for success.
I've started learning about value investing and noticed many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $250k to build a strong portfolio, which stocks would you pick for better returns?
I think a good portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
Hey, I'm trying to find a certified one to boost my investments/portfolio, but it's tough online. Can I get a rec from you, since you know about this stuff?
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the advisr I use and i'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I love your videos on value investing, Sven! I agree the S&P is a bit stretched, but markets are becoming more efficient, especially with the rise of passive investing. Is the market overvalued? Yes, but probably by 15-20%, not 50%. A 50% crash is possible but unlikely. Investing has become more elastic and accessible since the 1920s, with low costs and greater diversification. Sticking to asset allocation helps manage risks, and volatility can work in your favor. For example, use a drop in equity prices as an opportunity to invest more while other asset classes stabilize or behave differently. Concerns about passive investing often stem from portfolio design issues, not the strategy itself. Even active value investors aim to balance returns and preserve capital. Ironically, many value investors might panic in a correction, especially if picking individual stocks, compared to those investing in diversified passive funds
Very thoughtful post. However, consider that, because so much of investing is now passive, too many stocks are purchased simply because they are part of an index. Value investing looks at asset values, debt, and earnings critically. For any one stock, those elements are measured against the market as a whole and measured against a "risk free" investment like US Treasuries to determine the relative value which leads the investor to decide what a stock is worth and whether it is under valued or over valued.
Good point but I’d argue that Quality investing (great company at fair price) is also a safe way to survive a crash, not just value investing (fair company at great price). For some people the two are the same. If that’s what you mean, we’re on the same page 😊
Actually there is minor mistake at 17:22 "net income is growing". Mistake is that in between 2021 and 2022 net income fall from 76033 to 59972. It could partially explain low valuation at some moment.
I'm convinced that investing $50k-100k in the right company before it goes big is more important than saving for retirement. However, picking the right company is so hard. I have around $200k in a HYSA and want to invest. What are the best opportunities now
I believe investors should start with S&P 500/ETFs for a solid foundation, then diversify across asset classes and maintain disciplined, regular investing to minimize risks and maximize growth.
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today.
I've stuck with the popularly ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
Great video. Thank you for your work, I have been improving my investment skills following your videos and analysis (mainly), and I am very thankful! I have questions for you. What resources can we use to analyze sector cycle trends? Can you do, someday, an overview on the shipping sector and discuss some investment ideas (disclaimer, I own Gigacloud)? Also, any new books to recommend on the investing (it's been a while since your last video)?
I’m ecstatic with Trump's victory and the year-end market surge. Which hidden jewels in the upcoming bull run would you buy with 150 grand right now? My goal is to position myself for a prosperous Q1 in 2025.
Index Funds & ETFs: 40-50%, Emerging Markets (e.g., VWO): 10-15%, Dividend Stocks: 10-20%, Growth Stocks/Small-Caps: 10-20%, REITs: 5-10% Remember to always work with a knowledgeable person in the financial market when starting out to avoid getting burnt.
”DCA DCA" is the sloppy term but the key. My dollar portfolio i DCA with is made up of 30% PLTR, 25% NVDA, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends. Q3 taxable divs this year was $18,388 this year
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Eleanor Bonnici Deskin’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Have a look into biotech, specifically genomics (ARKG, GNOM). My fav out of that sector right now: CRSP, TWST, ILMN and BTNX. Particularly Biontech. 29B market cap, almost 19B in cash, no debt and full pipeline. Higher high and higher low in the weekly chart. Curious about your opinion. Thanks for all your work, I learned a lot and have followed you for quiet a while!!
I’d love your thoughts on gold exploration companies. Some are trading at .1 NAV as they continue derisking their projects. First Mining Gold comes to mind.
At 3:21 you show how value investing (in for example food) has outperfomed other investments. Considering that many of these value investments are linked to population size, wouldn't it make sense to assume that future returns from similar value investments would be smaller, since the population increase has significantly declined?
Dr. Carlin… Do you think it is also a viable strategy to simply wait on the sidelines in safe, value oriented companies and short term treasuries and if the S&P drops into fair historical value (15 P/E) , not timing the bottom, but just drops to historical norms… Then start buying back in? Seems a lot of money is created with that strategy
Shiller PE is useless metric for valuying stocks. It uses GAAP EPS which are not real earnings of companies and stock prices tracks operating earnings. Than Shiller PE does take into account that stocks have growing earnings.
The markets prediction of the companies future is already baked into its PE ratio. Supply and demand. There’s no reason someone would buy apple at 40x its value if its potential future profit growth wasn’t taken into account by the market.
Stock prices track earnings. So good business is a business with very good long term earnings growth at above average and above market rate. Target has no moat according to morningstar and yet it printed many millionaires over decades.
Haven't people always made tons of money by indexing throughout long downturns and patiently waiting for conditions to change? If the market always goes up long term, how can you lose?
@@Value-Investing I'm thinking that people that stuck with dollar cost averaging VOO throughout the lost decade did pretty dang good when it turned. I'm 43 and trying to figure what's riskier, thinking I can pick stocks or hoping there isn't a long downturn when I want to stop working. I'm really enjoying your vids, btw. Great stuff.
Great video! I just have the doubt that the S&P will perform better than value stocks picking because most countries have a population decrease and pension issue, so people are forced to invest money on funds, and funds just buy blind S&P.
@Ardarail Hahaha. Microsoft made 15% annualy in last 20 years and 14.5% of it comes from growth and starting dividend yield. Once we get above 10 year period than 90+% of returns are explainable by EPS growth. Please learn math and educate yourself on where historical returns of stocks came from. PE change aka undervaluation is less than 5% of total stock returns aka insignificant.
Microsoft grew earnings at more than 10% cagr 1999-2014 and the shares went nowhere. The multiple in the late 90s was 50-60x and in the early 2010s it was 10x. Ooops, stubborn math.
@@Amwatson801 If you held to this day you would make double digit annual return even if you bought at 2000 top. Compounding always win at the end. That's pure math. Double digit compounder can stay flat only to a certain point 😉
From a JPM study: ´´On average, your one year total return was +11.7%. Now, what do those figures look like if we only consider investments on days when the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high? They're actually better! Your investment made money over the course of the next year 88% of the time, and your average total return was +14.6%.28 août 2020´´
Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.
We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.
i've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!
Sven, what will happen to earnings of our value stock when the bubble bursts? Won't that create a recession and make it harder for every business, including ours, to earn money to pay dividends? I am 50 now and in 10 years I want to start living of dividends and rental income from my properties.
I realize that you do not generally make market comments, and that the whole idea behind value investing is from the bottom up...but for the sake of query...If the market would revert back to mean ratios, and therefore fell 50% roughly...would you expect that Berkshire share prices would drop? Or given the substantial cash situation they are in would you expect that people would run to Berkshire, and therefore the Market cap of Berkshire would surge all whilst Buffet would likely be 'scooping up' deals? Is there any historical precedence for this say in 2008? Thanks again for all you are doing to promote reasonable consideration in investing.
Hi Sven, hope you'll be able to reply. If SP500 is so expensive, how can a passive investor find a decent ROI? I don't do stock picking because I simply don't know how to. By the way, would you be able to explain how to determine whether a stock has a chance to beat the market? Do you use these ratios P/S, WAAC, P/FCF? And... what do you think of Peter Lynch's valuation method?
why would buffet compare the current yield with the treasury when his yield on cost is probably 6x or higher? His yield on his apple shares should be around the 4% mark. So for sure, that is not the reason for him to sell. The downside potential on the stock due to very slow growth compared with the current valuation is another story, and it makes more sense for a reason to justify his selling.
Hi Sven, do you have any graphs on the behaviour of value stocks in crises? I mean if we look at the market in the last years, everything went down and then growth went back up. Value however has not recovered. Rather the opposite; most of value sectors are down.
You have data in the Fama French website. Annualized return of large businesses with high PE during the 1999-2014 “lost decade”: zero. Annualized return of small businesses with low PE during the same period: double digits.
Good evening Sven, I did very big some say huge investments but on something on no one talk about... Psny and Sid. Yeah crazy but I made it on 10+ years can talk about it but I pick your mind if I can please
!I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 185K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a newbie investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $200k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work.. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analysing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted on thorough research and years of practical experience..
how would you recommend i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally.. What's your take on this approach? and How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks next year. Hope to make millions this 2025.😉
The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful. I’m guided by Madeleine Howells. A widely known crypto consultant❤💯📈
YES!! That's actually her name (Madeleine Howells) so many people have recommended highly about her and I'm just starting with her😊from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺
🗽 If you are a passive index ETF investor, you should consider holding a bit more cash, than usual. If you are very long-term orientated you probably will do nothing. .
You dont talk much about options...but at end if 21 i was gonna buy QQQ puts at 300, because i figured oh we had 2 crazy years things will pull back, i was gonna put in 300k , it would have been worth 9 million! I will this year going in 25 because history repeats itself
Some Chinese vocational education schools reported earnings this week. China Education group in particular, reported 17pct growth, 34pct net margin, substantial capex and some serious impairments: the shares keep sinking to 4x earnings.
You think that it is reasonable for everyone to ignore the absence of dividends even in growth stocks for extended periods of time? It seems like an excuse for companies not to give back to investors. If tech giants like google and microsoft are still growing how are you supposed to get a return on your investments except flipping stocks during bubbles trying to guess market sentiment? It seems that as a stock holder you don't have that many rights, you only get some dividends if the company feels like it and otherwise we are just trading pieces of paper (or digital today) between us.
who listened you last year lost HUGE gains sven. hard to cope it. +40% in a index is HUGE no matter how good you are in stock picking. delusional video.
Lets also call out the elephant in the room by saying that “S&P investing is exciting”. You are 100% correct there Sven but I think most passive investors think their SP500 investing is boring and that they’re already very prudent for not going all in on NVDIA. These people are in for a real test of investing emotions once the hammer drops.
sven started calling out the bubble 5 years ago, in the meantime the market went up by 100%, i bet all my money his portfolio underpermored the market by a large margin...who knows why he doesn't disclose it... ah, and he also suggested to buy Intel at 50dollar.. be humble guys, just buy the market and go to sleep
@@mdanese0 If you want to buy the market, more power to you. But if you're talking about "betting all your money" in someone else's portfolio and concluding that this 'bet' was unsuccesful after five years, you indicate that you miss the point of business ownership and where investment returns come from.
@@mdanese0 Because it's a certainty where the US stock market will go decades from now? Maybe the debt gets so large they'll have to devalue the dollar or aren't deemed as creditworthy and the economy gets into a depression. Maybe the Indo-Pacific is such a growth engine in the next forty years that investing in the US now will look like investing in Europe in the 2000s.
@@augustus331 Considering that there is no index in the planet that has ever returned anything from 30x earnings over a 10/15-year horizon, I think that what the US market will do over the next decade or two is as close as it gets to a certainty given history.
@@afonsodeportugal why wouldn't it afford to wait my point is some fund is deploying with the same time horizons with an ai managing it if you think you can consume public information and spot bargains in 2024 you are delusional
@@nunobartolo2908 How do you explain that there are still undervalued stocks, then? Or did you miss Sven's quadrant at 18:14? Or better yet, do you think Sven is lying to us?
@ Sven believes in historical ratios compiled over 100 years which are irrelevant companies had an average of 15 pe but at that time things like meta with 70% net margins did not exist assuming the market average pe should be the same forever when the leading companies that make up the indexes clearly are far more powerful companies with moats and economics that didn’t exist at the time of Ben gram makes no sense it’s just lazy
I'm ecstatic with Trump's victory and the year-end market surge. Which hidden jewels in the upcoming bull run would you buy with 150 grand right now? My goal is to position myself for a prosperous Q1 in 2025.
Well index Funds & ETFs: 40-50%, Emerging Markets (e.g., VWO): 10-15%, Dividend Stocks: 10-20%, Growth Stocks/Small-Caps: 10-20%, REITs: 5-10% Remember to always work with a knowledgeable person in the financial market when starting out to avoid getting burnt.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
I have a female advisor named Eleanor Bonnici Deskin. I recommend researching her. To be very honest, I'm glad I decided to let someone handle expanding my finances even though I almost didn't think I should.
Revamping the FREE Value Investing Course this winter, JOIN! A comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-investing
Thanks! Can you share your knowledge about how to invest in European bonds? Thanks again!
the first of your videos about the current bubble that i watched was 4/5 years ago, if i had followed your advise, i would have lagged the market by 50%. Guys, be humble, just buy index funds a go to sleep, the only bubble we are able to call is the one that has already happened!
SPY is up 90% over the past 5 years: that's a 13.7% cagr. Last time he reported on his model portfolio, the performance was around 12%, and that was prior to the Liberty spinoff. Not too different. The difference is that his strategy can be executed 100% of the time, while the S&P500 (or any other index anywhere in the planet) has never returned anything from 30x earnings over a 10-15 year horizon.
@ he has no strategy, he makes DCF based on his on assumptions. A 12% return doesn’t only lag the market as you said, but it comes by taking greater risks, because you are not diversifying. Lower returns and higher risks, and if you are not as good as he is in making your dcf assumptions, following his advice is the right way to a financial disaster. Just buy the market guys, stop pretending to be warren buffet
@@mdanese0Stock market is the most overpriced since 2000. I hope you know that 16 years of no returns followed. So calling this market less risky is very funny. Returns made by PE expansion only never last. Mean reversion is real and happening all the time.
We had two 30% sell offs in last 5 years so what the heck you are talking about? We had two overpriced bubbles popped in last 5 years.
@@PavolKosik-b3u and the return over the last 5 years is 100%, just buy the market and stay invested
I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
I'm glad I found this conversation. I have cash to invest but am worried about picking the wrong stocks. Can you refer me to your financial advisor?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Judith Lynn Staufer for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
I reached $138k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and insights you've shared with me over the past few months. I began this journey in October
2024. Financial education is essential for over 70% of the population, as only a few are truly literate in this area.
Thanks so much Charlotte Grace Miller.
I'm celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. started this journey with 6k. I have invested on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me
The very first time we tried, we invested $1400 and after a week, we received $5230. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
Excellent logic. Once you understand that all else being equal, it is an advantage for the stock price to fall. Then you understand value investing.
One of your best videos Sven. The value within is greater than many people will realize.
This channel is criminally underrated for how down-to-earth it discusses value investing framework.
greetings from Brazil! since 2020 I watch your content!
thanks!
Good morning Dr sven I was looking 500 companies that pays dividends but each of them didn't make money from revenues. this insane most people just gambling with their life savings. found around 25-30 companies that can effectively pay their dividends cause they were making profits. well just wanted share with you my thoughts thank you happy Holidays
I agree totally...most people think passive investment is more safe, but they don't look the past charts and don't understand that it's better to own great businesses in portfolio
Sven, while I invest in very different companies from you (except my bet on the food cycle), I am so thankful for your e-book for teaching me how to do my own analysis. I have done really well ever since. I have also learned that most wall street analysts simply follow the market, and their price targets don't really mean crap.
All In Berkshire Hathaway is the best way to go. Good value, good management, grinding up intrinsic value and tons of cash to defend and then offend. Get a few 20% out of the money puts for life insurance on Buffett roll them ahead as it grows. Get 2-3% of crazy crypto on the side and let run.
thanks for sharing!
I wouldnt be buying crypto now. The next winter is less than a year off.
Best channel on UA-cam!
I enjoy collecting my dividends from my Canadian stocks in my TFSA. I don’t mind boring investing. It’ll build wealth over time.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Great content Sven! Keep going
🦾
Apple is 30 PE but Nutrien is also 30 PE. Why is Nutrien better buy?
Also market crash will also make Nutrien go down even more.
I like irrational markets! Working on getting to 30% cash just like my Berkshire shares. It's nice to make money every year, but not a requirement for success.
I've started learning about value investing and noticed many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $250k to build a strong portfolio, which stocks would you pick for better returns?
I think a good portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
Hey, I'm trying to find a certified one to boost my investments/portfolio, but it's tough online. Can I get a rec from you, since you know about this stuff?
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the advisr I use and i'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me
Thank you Sven! Very informative.
Glad it was helpful!
I love your videos on value investing, Sven! I agree the S&P is a bit stretched, but markets are becoming more efficient, especially with the rise of passive investing. Is the market overvalued? Yes, but probably by 15-20%, not 50%. A 50% crash is possible but unlikely. Investing has become more elastic and accessible since the 1920s, with low costs and greater diversification.
Sticking to asset allocation helps manage risks, and volatility can work in your favor. For example, use a drop in equity prices as an opportunity to invest more while other asset classes stabilize or behave differently. Concerns about passive investing often stem from portfolio design issues, not the strategy itself. Even active value investors aim to balance returns and preserve capital. Ironically, many value investors might panic in a correction, especially if picking individual stocks, compared to those investing in diversified passive funds
Very thoughtful post. However, consider that, because so much of investing is now passive, too many stocks are purchased simply because they are part of an index. Value investing looks at asset values, debt, and earnings critically. For any one stock, those elements are measured against the market as a whole and measured against a "risk free" investment like US Treasuries to determine the relative value which leads the investor to decide what a stock is worth and whether it is under valued or over valued.
Yes, this time is different, right?😂😂😂😂
Good point but I’d argue that Quality investing (great company at fair price) is also a safe way to survive a crash, not just value investing (fair company at great price). For some people the two are the same. If that’s what you mean, we’re on the same page 😊
It's a story/narrative. There is no scientific proof, that something like a "great company" does exist.
that is also value :-)) But fair price is 10% usually, not lower!
The S&P outperforms value over a lifetime. Hold and outperform = EASY
that is not correct, but ok :-)
Actually there is minor mistake at 17:22 "net income is growing". Mistake is that in between 2021 and 2022 net income fall from 76033 to 59972. It could partially explain low valuation at some moment.
yes, thanks for sharing!
I'm convinced that investing $50k-100k in the right company before it goes big is more important than saving for retirement. However, picking the right company is so hard. I have around $200k in a HYSA and want to invest. What are the best opportunities now
I believe investors should start with S&P 500/ETFs for a solid foundation, then diversify across asset classes and maintain disciplined, regular investing to minimize risks and maximize growth.
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today.
this is all new to me, How do I find a suitable fiduciary advisor, can you recommend any?
I've stuck with the popularly ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip.
Great video. Thank you for your work, I have been improving my investment skills following your videos and analysis (mainly), and I am very thankful! I have questions for you. What resources can we use to analyze sector cycle trends? Can you do, someday, an overview on the shipping sector and discuss some investment ideas (disclaimer, I own Gigacloud)? Also, any new books to recommend on the investing (it's been a while since your last video)?
I’m ecstatic with Trump's victory and the year-end market surge. Which hidden jewels in the upcoming bull run would you buy with 150 grand right now? My goal is to position myself for a prosperous Q1 in 2025.
Index Funds & ETFs: 40-50%, Emerging Markets (e.g., VWO): 10-15%, Dividend Stocks: 10-20%, Growth Stocks/Small-Caps: 10-20%, REITs: 5-10%
Remember to always work with a knowledgeable person in the financial market when starting out to avoid getting burnt.
”DCA DCA" is the sloppy term but the key. My dollar portfolio i DCA with is made up of 30% PLTR, 25% NVDA, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends. Q3 taxable divs this year was $18,388 this year
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Eleanor Bonnici Deskin’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Thank you for the video, Dr. Carlin.
Question: why do you think Buffett got rid of Ulta? It doesn't make sense to me...
Because beauty is short term😅
Because of falling earnings. Why else? Stocks are just about one thing and thats earnings growth. Or lack of 😂
Have a look into biotech, specifically genomics (ARKG, GNOM). My fav out of that sector right now: CRSP, TWST, ILMN and BTNX. Particularly Biontech. 29B market cap, almost 19B in cash, no debt and full pipeline. Higher high and higher low in the weekly chart.
Curious about your opinion.
Thanks for all your work, I learned a lot and have followed you for quiet a while!!
I’d love your thoughts on gold exploration companies. Some are trading at .1 NAV as they continue derisking their projects. First Mining Gold comes to mind.
Sven is legit but thereare lots of scammers in the comments
sven is the one who suggested to buy Alibaba and Intel 3 years ago
Best value asset is Bitcoin and MSTR. Best ARR. 🧡
great!
Totally agree with the message of this video, but don't agree with CNH Industrial. Look at FCF generation, who wants to own a company like this?
interesting point, thanks for sharing!
Speaking of agriculture, what do you think about farmland REITs? Gladstone Land is an opportunity right now, in my opinion.
What are your thoughts on a value ETF, instead of trying to pick individual stocks?
Intrinsic value
= The value of the power to earn
Power to earn
= ROIC
= Net Income / Invested Capital
13:45 Do you think their value/cheap on BRICS economies? Excluding Russia of course.
yes go buy china stock and wait for US gov to confiscate them. like Russia.... only US is allowed ;)
At 3:21 you show how value investing (in for example food) has outperfomed other investments. Considering that many of these value investments are linked to population size, wouldn't it make sense to assume that future returns from similar value investments would be smaller, since the population increase has significantly declined?
Question? Does hard wiring pensions to stocks and Wall Street drive up the price to expensive prices forever? Always money coming in?
Dr. Carlin… Do you think it is also a viable strategy to simply wait on the sidelines in safe, value oriented companies and short term treasuries and if the S&P drops into fair historical value (15 P/E) , not timing the bottom, but just drops to historical norms… Then start buying back in?
Seems a lot of money is created with that strategy
Shiller PE is useless metric for valuying stocks. It uses GAAP EPS which are not real earnings of companies and stock prices tracks operating earnings. Than Shiller PE does take into account that stocks have growing earnings.
The markets prediction of the companies future is already baked into its PE ratio. Supply and demand. There’s no reason someone would buy apple at 40x its value if its potential future profit growth wasn’t taken into account by the market.
A noob question, but what is the exact definition of business yield ? Is it similar to net profit margin ?
How do you characterize a good business ? Constant high return on capital, a moat ? That appears to be no criteria for you.
Stock prices track earnings. So good business is a business with very good long term earnings growth at above average and above market rate. Target has no moat according to morningstar and yet it printed many millionaires over decades.
@@PavolKosik-b3u no, earnings growth alone does not make a good business. It it also important how much capital you need to achieve that growth.
Haven't people always made tons of money by indexing throughout long downturns and patiently waiting for conditions to change? If the market always goes up long term, how can you lose?
correctly, where do you see a long downturn to accumulate wealth? Stocks can take a long time to go up!
@@Value-Investing I'm thinking that people that stuck with dollar cost averaging VOO throughout the lost decade did pretty dang good when it turned. I'm 43 and trying to figure what's riskier, thinking I can pick stocks or hoping there isn't a long downturn when I want to stop working. I'm really enjoying your vids, btw. Great stuff.
Sorry a very basic question - what does business yield mean? Does it only mean dividends?
you have dividend yield, earnings yield, free cash flow yield....
Great video! I just have the doubt that the S&P will perform better than value stocks picking because most countries have a population decrease and pension issue, so people are forced to invest money on funds, and funds just buy blind S&P.
Value stock is a fast growing company bought at fair or better value. I dont know why people still struggle with this very simple concept.
Growth is irrelevant, all that matter is price to value. If you have a 1% growth company trading at a 30% FCF yield, it's undervalued.
@Ardarail Hahaha. Microsoft made 15% annualy in last 20 years and 14.5% of it comes from growth and starting dividend yield. Once we get above 10 year period than 90+% of returns are explainable by EPS growth. Please learn math and educate yourself on where historical returns of stocks came from. PE change aka undervaluation is less than 5% of total stock returns aka insignificant.
Microsoft grew earnings at more than 10% cagr 1999-2014 and the shares went nowhere. The multiple in the late 90s was 50-60x and in the early 2010s it was 10x. Ooops, stubborn math.
@@ArdarailDon’t bother: people either already understand what you are saying or they never will. There is no in between.
@@Amwatson801 If you held to this day you would make double digit annual return even if you bought at 2000 top. Compounding always win at the end. That's pure math. Double digit compounder can stay flat only to a certain point 😉
From a JPM study: ´´On average, your one year total return was +11.7%. Now, what do those figures look like if we only consider investments on days when the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high? They're actually better! Your investment made money over the course of the next year 88% of the time, and your average total return was +14.6%.28 août 2020´´
So what I hear, correct me if I’m wrong purchase VTV, IWD, and SCHV instead would that constitute value investing?
not much to do with value investing...
Hello, dear Sven, i would really appreciate your take on Swiss Adecco Group stock. What is your opinion about it?
Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.
We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.
i've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!
Would be interesting to plot dividend yield + stock buybacks; since shift towards buybacks over dividends.
1.2% + 2% doesnt lead to much, plus if buybacks are made at high prices, it is more value destruction than other....
hi Sven, nice video as always, where do you see Google in your quadrant?
🗽 Yes Sven, the era of passive investing will end with very high index valuations, and the era of value investing could commence after that. 🤨
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Sven Carlin, has "Margin of Safety" book from Seth Klarman on his bookshelf!
I think it is a fake one, but looks the same :-)))
Sven, what will happen to earnings of our value stock when the bubble bursts? Won't that create a recession and make it harder for every business, including ours, to earn money to pay dividends? I am 50 now and in 10 years I want to start living of dividends and rental income from my properties.
I realize that you do not generally make market comments, and that the whole idea behind value investing is from the bottom up...but for the sake of query...If the market would revert back to mean ratios, and therefore fell 50% roughly...would you expect that Berkshire share prices would drop? Or given the substantial cash situation they are in would you expect that people would run to Berkshire, and therefore the Market cap of Berkshire would surge all whilst Buffet would likely be 'scooping up' deals? Is there any historical precedence for this say in 2008?
Thanks again for all you are doing to promote reasonable consideration in investing.
Hi Sven, hope you'll be able to reply. If SP500 is so expensive, how can a passive investor find a decent ROI? I don't do stock picking because I simply don't know how to. By the way, would you be able to explain how to determine whether a stock has a chance to beat the market? Do you use these ratios P/S, WAAC, P/FCF? And... what do you think of Peter Lynch's valuation method?
Watch all of his videos
Wisdom of the day: "the market is woohoo." Dr. Carlin, 2024.
🗽 If I got 4.5% for 6 month in ST-bonds, like Warren Buffett, I would go more in Cash, but in the shitty EUR you only get 2.5%.
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why would buffet compare the current yield with the treasury when his yield on cost is probably 6x or higher? His yield on his apple shares should be around the 4% mark. So for sure, that is not the reason for him to sell. The downside potential on the stock due to very slow growth compared with the current valuation is another story, and it makes more sense for a reason to justify his selling.
Hi Sven, do you have any graphs on the behaviour of value stocks in crises? I mean if we look at the market in the last years, everything went down and then growth went back up. Value however has not recovered. Rather the opposite; most of value sectors are down.
You have data in the Fama French website.
Annualized return of large businesses with high PE during the 1999-2014 “lost decade”: zero.
Annualized return of small businesses with low PE during the same period: double digits.
Just like with the QQQ if you picked the top 1 earner you would be way up.
signed up for your free course...even 'pinned' it to my browser.
Good evening Sven, I did very big some say huge investments but on something on no one talk about... Psny and Sid. Yeah crazy but I made it on 10+ years can talk about it but I pick your mind if I can please
Thanks for sharing, not my kind of businesses :-(
!I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 185K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a newbie investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of
information can be a big hurdle. I've been
making more than $200k passively by just
investing through an advisor, and I don't have
to do much work.. Inflation or no inflation, my
finances remain secure. So I really don't blame
people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analysing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted on thorough research and years of practical experience..
how would you recommend i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally.. What's your take on this approach? and How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
So you're saying I should invest in tractors instead of AI and crypto? Guess I'll be trading my Bitcoin for a John Deere soon! 😂
Doubt there will be a crash but if the economy stays like that the stock market has to turn at some point
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks next year. Hope to make millions this 2025.😉
The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful. I’m guided by Madeleine Howells. A widely known crypto consultant❤💯📈
I've come across this name before. Now I am interested. How can I reach her?
She mostly interacts on TELEGRAMs, using the user-name,
Madeleinehowells1
YES!! That's actually her name (Madeleine Howells) so many people have recommended highly about her and I'm just starting with her😊from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺
Not that fast Johnny Boy 😂😂😂😂😂.
:-)
Minimize risk. Find compounding stocks. Period!
🗽 If you are a passive index ETF investor, you should consider holding a bit more cash, than usual. If you are very long-term orientated you probably will do nothing.
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Or buy bonds, depends where you live
You dont talk much about options...but at end if 21 i was gonna buy QQQ puts at 300, because i figured oh we had 2 crazy years things will pull back, i was gonna put in 300k , it would have been worth 9 million! I will this year going in 25 because history repeats itself
13:58 ok
Invest in quality Chinese stocks at the right price.
Nikkei 1989.
Some Chinese vocational education schools reported earnings this week.
China Education group in particular, reported 17pct growth, 34pct net margin, substantial capex and some serious impairments: the shares keep sinking to 4x earnings.
A 40pct dividend payout on FY24 earnings represents a 9.5pct yield.
"The market will give you the right opportunity because the market is 'woohoo'." 🤣
:-)))
Buy gold and real estate if you believe an Armageddon will come...
nobody knows what will come, we can just look at the fundamentals and understand the risk and reward!
BTW, AAPL is at all time high.
2025 will be known for delevaraging after deleveraging after deleveraging... and bond rally
What crash!?
Goldman’s predictions have been wrong before
You think that it is reasonable for everyone to ignore the absence of dividends even in growth stocks for extended periods of time? It seems like an excuse for companies not to give back to investors. If tech giants like google and microsoft are still growing how are you supposed to get a return on your investments except flipping stocks during bubbles trying to guess market sentiment? It seems that as a stock holder you don't have that many rights, you only get some dividends if the company feels like it and otherwise we are just trading pieces of paper (or digital today) between us.
who listened you last year lost HUGE gains sven. hard to cope it. +40% in a index is HUGE no matter how good you are in stock picking. delusional video.
Another stock market crash video 😀
it s a bubble. 45 years bubble....
@ Yeah 🤣 3800% cumulative inflation-adjusted return in this bubble. Ok with me 👍🏼
don't tell anyone, we'll keep buying the market and overperform all these self-declared value investors who suggested intel at 50 dollars..
@@mdanese0 Sounds like a plan 😎
@ You mean the same value investors who told us for years NVDA is outrageously overvalued?
Green Pre-market..SYM. Symbotic. 35 % DIP opportunity. RIVN.. Rivian... NKLA.. Nikola... LCID.. Lucid as EV sector charging Up. VHAI..3'% Wed . Vocodia. Evtol Jets Flying Higher. Joby/ Blade/ Archer, more. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks.
Lets also call out the elephant in the room by saying that “S&P investing is exciting”.
You are 100% correct there Sven but I think most passive investors think their SP500 investing is boring and that they’re already very prudent for not going all in on NVDIA.
These people are in for a real test of investing emotions once the hammer drops.
sven started calling out the bubble 5 years ago, in the meantime the market went up by 100%, i bet all my money his portfolio underpermored the market by a large margin...who knows why he doesn't disclose it... ah, and he also suggested to buy Intel at 50dollar.. be humble guys, just buy the market and go to sleep
@@mdanese0 If you want to buy the market, more power to you.
But if you're talking about "betting all your money" in someone else's portfolio and concluding that this 'bet' was unsuccesful after five years, you indicate that you miss the point of business ownership and where investment returns come from.
@ you miss the point that we are not warren buffet and should just buy the market, unless you want to underperform for the rest of your lifetime
@@mdanese0 Because it's a certainty where the US stock market will go decades from now? Maybe the debt gets so large they'll have to devalue the dollar or aren't deemed as creditworthy and the economy gets into a depression.
Maybe the Indo-Pacific is such a growth engine in the next forty years that investing in the US now will look like investing in Europe in the 2000s.
@@augustus331 Considering that there is no index in the planet that has ever returned anything from 30x earnings over a 10/15-year horizon, I think that what the US market will do over the next decade or two is as close as it gets to a certainty given history.
You always pick companies with terrible debt to equity ratios it seems.
Ai has read buffets and Ben graham ‘s books far better than you value investment is dead
Except AI can't afford to wait. We can.
@@afonsodeportugal why wouldn't it afford to wait my point is some fund is deploying with the same time horizons with an ai managing it if you think you can consume public information and spot bargains in 2024 you are delusional
@@nunobartolo2908 How do you explain that there are still undervalued stocks, then? Or did you miss Sven's quadrant at 18:14? Or better yet, do you think Sven is lying to us?
@ Sven believes in historical ratios compiled over 100 years which are irrelevant companies had an average of 15 pe but at that time things like meta with 70% net margins did not exist assuming the market average pe should be the same forever when the leading companies that make up the indexes clearly are far more powerful companies with moats and economics that didn’t exist at the time of Ben gram makes no sense it’s just lazy
Why on earth would you trust an AI to manage your fund? They struggle understanding the most simple context - something investing is all about
I'm ecstatic with Trump's victory and the year-end market surge. Which hidden jewels in the upcoming bull run would you buy with 150 grand right now? My goal is to position myself for a prosperous Q1 in 2025.
Well index Funds & ETFs: 40-50%, Emerging Markets (e.g., VWO): 10-15%, Dividend Stocks: 10-20%, Growth Stocks/Small-Caps: 10-20%, REITs: 5-10%
Remember to always work with a knowledgeable person in the financial market when starting out to avoid getting burnt.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?
I have a female advisor named Eleanor Bonnici Deskin. I recommend researching her. To be very honest, I'm glad I decided to let someone handle expanding my finances even though I almost didn't think I should.
Thank you for the lead. I just searched her name, and I have sent her a message. I look forward to hearing from her.