AI stocks will dominate 2025. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.
I was in a similar situation a few years ago; I took profits, but it went higher. Realizing I wasn't good at timing the market, I started working with an advisor, which helped me build a $1.6m stock and crypto portfolio. It all comes down to insight and patience. Remember, time in the market is better than timing the market.
I'm careful about giving specific recommendations since everyone's situation is different, but I've worked with Stacy Lynn Staples for years and highly recommend her. Look her up online to see if she's a good fit for you.
People try to predict the economy not realising it is not a capitalistic market, its a command economy, central planning! my concern is, instead of having much dollar in bank that could lose value to inflation, do I save in gold to reserve and grow wealth for now, or just hang on?
truth is that gold serves as an inflation hedge in the long run, but not profitable in the short run. only thing you can predict is a strong effort of wealth transfer from the people to the powerful. luckily some folks find solution in financial advisors
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Excellent share, thank you! just copied and pasted her full name on my browser, at once came across her site and skimmed through credentials, she looks very distinguished
Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $220K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio for 2025
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
True, some folks employ hedging strategies or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during market downturns and such pointers are provided by engaging the services of market experts just like i did in 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, i can boost of a 45% enhancement on my $1m portfolio after acquiring assets recommended by my advisor.
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed advisor I use and i'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Sven is a spiritually financial hedge....I enjoy reading the comments from the people who accuse him of crying wolf yet keep watching and commenting. Keep up the excellent, thoughtful work.....
During these blowoff top bowl markets, common sense is nowhere to be found. However, Warren Buffett and SVEN. And handful of other old school value investors know what’s up. 🎉
What are the best additions to a $500k portfolio to boost performance? S&P 500 is Up and will do better in 2024 I believe as indicators for profits continue to improve, investors like me believe that “Santa has come early” to the markets.
I think you're better off with majority investment in S&P500 and uprising equities cos they always outperform. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on which to acquire
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q1 2025.
Sure, 'Melissa Elise Robinson' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details on the web to set up an appointment.
Sure, 'Melissa Elise Robinson' is the licensed advlsor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details on the web to set up an appointment.
Those who have a vested interest in the market will always say it goes higher. Like a real estate agent who will never tell you its not a good time to buy a house
I'm happy that I've already gotten an early start because 2025 will be a fantastic year for investing. I want to add digital currencies with significant growth and profit potential to my $70.000 portfolio in order to diversify it. According to what I've read, this is how people are currently generating a lot of money in the market. Do you have any recommendations?
That's a good way to go. I had some difficulties two years ago when I wanted to invest some money in the digital cryptocurrencies, but I started with a CFP and investment just feels really easy since then and I've also made a lot of profit.
I agree. I also work with a CFP who has a good understanding of both the digital market and stock market. These days experts who have an all-round understanding are in short supply. This last quarter alone I've already made more than 150k in net profit.
She goes by *Marissa Lynn Babula.* I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did
I’d be interested to see the performance by dividend income for all of these players vs the S&P 500. But how can I possibly safeguard and grow $350k cash reserve into a 7 figure ballpark for the next 2 years?
Index Funds & ETFs: 40-50%, Emerging Markets (e.g., VWO): 10-15%, Dividend Stocks: 10-20%, Growth Stocks/Small-Caps: 10-20%, REITs: 5-10% Remember to always work with a knowledgeable person in the financial market when starting out to avoid getting burnt.
“DCA" is the golden term but the key. My dollar portfolio i DCA with is made up of 30% PLTR, 25% NVDA, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends. Q3 taxable divs this year was $18,388.
I believe that investors should constantly use their money, especially The market will begin to diversify more in 2025. Next year, I want to put roughly $350,000 of my money into stocks. In 2025, I hope to earn millions.
It's critical to have a well-planned strategy and refrain from acting rashly in response to transient market swings. You want to think about getting advice from a market specialist.
Indeed, a lot of people downplay the significance of advisors until their own emotions become too much for them to handle. I needed a big boost to keep my firm viable a few summers ago after a lengthy divorce. I found the most qualified advisor after searching for licensed advisors. Despite inflation, she helped me grow my reserve from $275k to $850k.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks next year. Hope to make millions this 2025.
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
It's true that many people minimize the importance of advisers until their own feelings burn them out. A few summers ago, following a protracted divorce, I needed a significant boost to keep my business afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with the highest qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing from $275k to $850k despite inflation.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Melissa Terri Swayne for about 4 years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
Sven - You always have great perspective with facts and rationality! How do we, in US, find value when our 401k has limited options and our 401s are the core positions? Most offer the SP500 or NASDAQ as primary funds. Some value funds , but not great options.
I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Charlotte Grace Miller for helping me achieve this
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
I'm celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. started this journey with 6k. I have invested on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
Finally, a guy who gets it. I wonder what you think of the Wilshire comparison to GDP as an index for valuation. Thank you Dr. Lots of good points to digest
Sven, thanks for keeping us all grounded in reality. After investing through the last two crashes, this one will be epic when it pops. My guess is that earnings from all the AI capital investments will be a fraction of what they all expected and AI tech will correct massively. Every large tech company has a large model and they will all erode each other's margins. Meta is even just giving their expensively trained model away for free (for now).
This bubble is very different. Its first time in US history I think when a new bubble formed just two years after the last one. These extreme bubbles usually happen at least 20 years appart as old investors are replaced with newbies who did not lived experienced the last one. This bubble is very unique as people who lost half their money in IPO bubbli in 2021 and crypto are now jumping again all in.
Or the major investors pulled out before the last big C. Now they simply creating another climax before ww3. Unfortunately for them this is likely to be delayed due to not being able to control usa
HEy Sven. Love your new strategy to post more often shorter videos. I've seen that the wales (Trump/ other big investors) are moving to crypto and pushing that agenda to get that growth that will not come for the next 10 years in stocks. Is crypto a new growth wave for the ones who don;t do Wall Street? If a crises hits, what you think the crypto word will react ? Thank you.
Hi, please clarify, short interest rate is 4 percent. the earning per share growth rate is just 3 percent (earnings yield right?) if it was 6 percent that means companies are doing much more money. You said the value would be halfed. Could you please explain this.
Long term investors just need to ignore the chart. Keep adding to your positions, buy the lows, buy the highs and a few years later - bada boom, bada bing!! More ching ching in your pocket.
For Buffet it's a no brainer. Not only do 3 month bonds have a better yield but 10-year bonds have huge risk if the rates go up, or worse it something like a failed auction happens. He wants to be able to jump out of bonds and buy equities and you cannot do that with longer dated bonds without losses if the bond market moves against you just when you need cash to buy equities. Also Jamie Dimmon says JPM sees a wall 10 years out as far as government debt is concerned. Take that for what you will. I don't think governments can take 10 more years of what's happening today with interest payments and deficits. The reason why P/E keeps expanding is that an increasing number of people are equity buyers. People who never owned stocks are buying into pension schemes and passive ETFs. And these need to buy equities whatever the current price is, they cannot stop buying. And nobody cares if equity yield is 3% vs bonds at 5.5% as long as the price goes up 15% or more per year, that's replaces a yield for a lot of people.
Sven so you will buy just undervalued stocks in this period I assume, if you find otherwise you keep cash. I am not USA based and for me it is not convenient use us bonds because the exchange. What will you do in meantime?
investors have a lot to be grateful for, given recent market moves. The rest of the year and the beginning of 2025 should be merry and bright as well. Despite the S&P 500 doing well. I have lost a large share of my $640k portfolio in the last 4 months . How do I turn this around?
it's all hype! best to ignore the trend at the moment whether bullish or bearish, and stick to a proper trading plan preferably with expertise assistance.
More reason I enjoy my day to day market decisions is that i'm being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downtrends, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis, it's quite impossible not to
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
here is the problem. More than 50% in stock trading is now done by passive funds (index funds and ETFs) . This percentage increases every year. A large portion of them is held by pension funds. These funds keep buying regardless of interest rates, earning predictions or any other valuation aspect. It is a passive constant bid. So it is more relevant predicting when will you have more withdrawals than contribution, which is more related to demographics than economy.
That's true, passive probably has way more impact on the price-action we see than most people suspect. Not so sure about your point about being more related to demographics than the economy though: during a recession I'd suspect those 401k contributions could quickly ebb off or shift into reverse as people are forced to withdraw to make ends meet after being unemployed for too long. Not necessarily as long as the overall market trend is still up, but once it turns it could quickly turn into a self-reinforcing cycle on the way down, just like it did on the way up.
@@maosw . Good point - in recession people lose jobs so 401k contribution stops, and passive buying on stocks regardless of price is reduced. The demographics point is more of a long term thing - as long as population grows and employed population buys more funds in 401k than retired people that net sells funds, the indices will continue to go higher - regardless of various valuation multiples.
How do you value a ponzi scheme? It's greater-fool-investing, worth exactly as much as someone else is willing to pay for it. People chase it as long as it goes up
How exactly does one quantify risk under Donald Trump (this is not a political question before any one ‘attacks’)? If I’m calculating WACC what would I use for the discount rate when a tariff or attack from the US president could be put in place on a whim?
@@Value-Investing I asked about the first two words. More proof you don't see numbers clear anymore. Just kidding, thanks for the information you share. Really like your channel.
You are maybe right with your theory but please shed some light on the trillions added to the debt, where that money has gone because the money has been created and it was not collected back by the fed so it is in the economy and added to the people's accounts and gdp ,so it has to be invested somewhere and as a result the value of all assets must go up to the level of money in circulation, some corrections can happen but due to availability of so much money it will recover quickly and there is only one way for the markets to go in the long term as long fed printing machines are on, there is no way they will stop printing, some rates up and down will continue to control the inflation otherwise no politician will go for suicide to reduce debt ,I might be wrong but we will see in 10 -20 years who was right, if you agree
@@kevinp5119 No I think, they will continue printing, and paper money will continue losing its value as always, assets will be expensive, and value increase is the normal outcome of uncontrolled printing
$196 earnings are GAAP earnings. Stock prices track non GAAP earnings. GAAP earnings are influenced by one time non cash charges and thus are not real, operating earnings of the company. Thats why all graphs showing correlation between EPS and share price are using non GAAP EPS.
Well.. 1) “non recurring” expense is still an expense, every year there are non recurring expense 2) gaap earning is the only metric that can be compared across period. There is no point in comparing across period when the bases are different
@@kevinp5119Don’t bother, they think that investing consists in convincing themselves that the few dozen companies that everybody knows deserve higher and higher multiples no matter what, and they will resort to all sorts of stories. They don’t know what else to do and recent history has rewarded them. They will learn soon enough.
@@kevinp5119 No. Exact opposite is true. Operating earnings are much closer what company really makes than GAAP. Do you really believe that British Tobacco lost money this year and did not sell any cigarettes simply because they write off something from their book value? 🤔 Do you even understand accounting?
Sven, I don't understand. According to macrotrends, actual EPS on Oct 2021 was 172.5 and actual EPS never reached above 200. But on your graph, forward EPS is reaching 280?! Are they gaslighting us? This is misinformation and it should be illegal. Or am I just clueless, uneducated?
well, 280 sounds better than 172.5, no? what are we going to say that the S&P 500 PE ratio is above 30 ? Better to say it is at 22 on forward earnings..
If you check the S&P global estimated earnings spreadsheet, you can find historical “as reported” earnings and also operating earnings. Forward estimates seem to be operating earnings. The Jp Morgan chart Sven shows often is also titled “operating EPS”. As of June 2024, those were around 215, still far from the 240-275 projections.
Isn't the phrase " A bubble wondering around looking for a pin" Even the Monkey jpegs are shifting again, bots everywhere. Gamestop moving. That chap buying a $6m Banana sculpture with his Crypto returns, and then eating it. This is all perfectly normal- there's nothing to see here.
Yardeni and Tom Lee were saying the same thing at the top in 2007. It’s never gonna go down, but I have to give them credit because the right for multiple years in a row until they’re wrong. Hard to fight the Fed when the stimulus is cranking out
When I'm high, it's hard to tell when he's being sarcastic and when he's not. I hold lots and lots of bonds. Out to 5 years. Better yield than most safe stocks (utilities, big banks, big energy) and preserves my principle.
Sven you missed a cruical point in your video, AI. Palantir and Nvidia are growing like crazy so it explains the P/E, the whole market will grow now... I'm joking, this is crazy
Sven, Please turn off your comment option since it is filled with 99% scammers. You risk your reputation and a possibility of lawsuits when someone lose their savings to the scammers.
Recurring theme in your videos is that the market is overpriced compared to historic patterns. However, today ‘the market’ to great extent comprises just a few mega caps which have extraordinary business models (platform economics, network effects etc.) with high ROIs and a lot of runway. This is rather different from the mega caps of the past (e.g. oil majors). Im not saying the market is cheap, just think that a comparison now vs then may not be appropriate. Not even factored in that today there is just so much more money in the system looking for returns. thank you for your videos.
Well, even accepting that tech majors have great business models, they face risks for example tightening of loose tax regime, which may increase the tax, regulation of anti-competitive measures, etc. Furthermore, the moral of the story is that the current PE ratio of the entire stock market is extremely high compared to historical norms even in the backstop of higher interest rate environment which doesn’t make any sense.
More money in the system… looking for returns in places where returns can only come from sustained growth, sustained margins and sustained idiotik multiples. Same thing as in every other bubble. When people buy rental properties or set up businesses, their focus is on earnings yield. When people buy a stock, which is just a piece of a business, why should the focus be any different? And yet at high multiples, with no earnings yield, it is all a bet on growth and sustained valuations. Investing has nothing to do with convincing oneself that multiples should be higher.
I agree with your points, the problem is that there’s way too much money and there are no better assets to put them on that could give the same returns as pre fed interest. So everyone is just trying to hold to the old way of living. It’s hard to accept that the best bet is to put in treasuries. It will just take some time before people start losing money and then prices will adjust to follow fundamentals again. Or maybe they will go to crypto 🤷
But money is not destroyed when the market goes down, it just changes hands. Money is printed as well so there is just more money in the world, period.
@@akhan-hw1pw There was more money as money supply is going down since than and excess spending is drying up. What happened is that people who bought undervalued made killing while people jumping in at top waited almost two years to be break even.
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and i'm eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Eleanor Bonnici Deskin’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
You have some good insights Sven. Can I make a suggestion? Drop the word “value” from your channel name. I think “value” investing has got a bad rep given the underperformance of this investing style over the last decade. If you rename the channel to “investing with Sven Carlin” you might draw a new (younger) viewer base. Anyways, keep up the good work!
Sven. Eventually, your fears will be validated, and at some point, there will be indeed a crash or correction you keep predicting. Maybe next week, maybe in a few more months or years. None really knows. Valuations are indeed high from a historical perspective. But it doesn't mean anything with regard to what happens next. When there is a crash, I suspect that subscribers to your platform will be damaged threefold:1st, not participating on the epic run we've recently witnessed, 2nd, abysmal returns of low-PE food stock they followed you into (which will also likely crash), 3rd, by paying you investment platform fees :)
!!I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 185K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a newbie investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market..
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $200k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analysing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted on thorough research and years of practical experience.
how would you recommend i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach? and How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
AI stocks will dominate 2025. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.
I was in a similar situation a few years ago; I took profits, but it went higher. Realizing I wasn't good at timing the market, I started working with an advisor, which helped me build a $1.6m stock and crypto portfolio. It all comes down to insight and patience. Remember, time in the market is better than timing the market.
this is very insightful. Hope you don't mind me asking you to recommend your advisor?
I'm careful about giving specific recommendations since everyone's situation is different, but I've worked with Stacy Lynn Staples for years and highly recommend her. Look her up online to see if she's a good fit for you.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip
People try to predict the economy not realising it is not a capitalistic market, its a command economy, central planning! my concern is, instead of having much dollar in bank that could lose value to inflation, do I save in gold to reserve and grow wealth for now, or just hang on?
truth is that gold serves as an inflation hedge in the long run, but not profitable in the short run. only thing you can predict is a strong effort of wealth transfer from the people to the powerful. luckily some folks find solution in financial advisors
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
Impressive can you share more info, i want to take advantage of this bull season?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Excellent share, thank you! just copied and pasted her full name on my browser, at once came across her site and skimmed through credentials, she looks very distinguished
Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $220K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio for 2025
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
True, some folks employ hedging strategies or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during market downturns and such pointers are provided by engaging the services of market experts just like i did in 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, i can boost of a 45% enhancement on my $1m portfolio after acquiring assets recommended by my advisor.
I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor?
My advisor is Annette Christine Conte who is easily searchable on the web. She has extensive knowledge of the financial market
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed advisor I use and i'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
No, Sven, you are not "the boring guy at the party". You are much fun!
Sven is a spiritually financial hedge....I enjoy reading the comments from the people who accuse him of crying wolf yet keep watching and commenting. Keep up the excellent, thoughtful work.....
Sven is great.
i am a growth investor but Sven give me risk management strategy. He is brilliant
During these blowoff top bowl markets, common sense is nowhere to be found. However, Warren Buffett and SVEN. And handful of other old school value investors know what’s up. 🎉
Yes. I've been learning from every single video for the past four years. For free.
What are the best additions to a $500k portfolio to boost performance? S&P 500 is Up and will do better in 2024 I believe as indicators for profits continue to improve, investors like me believe that “Santa has come early” to the markets.
I think you're better off with majority investment in S&P500 and uprising equities cos they always outperform. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on which to acquire
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q1 2025.
Your advisor must be really good. How I can get in touch? My retirement portfolio's decline is a concern, and I could use some guidance.
Sure, 'Melissa Elise Robinson' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details on the web to set up an appointment.
Sure, 'Melissa Elise Robinson' is the licensed advlsor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details on the web to set up an appointment.
The bots are crazy today
yeah, wth is going on?
That 'Ronaldo would buy XAI213K' cracked me up :P
if Ronaldo is buying, we might too have to buy.... what is Messi doing?
I only believe to mbape 😅
Excited to hear you mention bots here, she seems to be quite knowledgeable. Is she on TELEGRAMs?
@@TurkishSupremacyyes her name is Dr. Karen and she helped me 100x my money every week 😂 Elon Musk approved her
Those who have a vested interest in the market will always say it goes higher. Like a real estate agent who will never tell you its not a good time to buy a house
I'm happy that I've already gotten an early start because 2025 will be a fantastic year for investing. I want to add digital currencies with significant growth and profit potential to my $70.000 portfolio in order to diversify it. According to what I've read, this is how people are currently generating a lot of money in the market. Do you have any recommendations?
That's a good way to go. I had some difficulties two years ago when I wanted to invest some money in the digital cryptocurrencies, but I started with a CFP and investment just feels really easy since then and I've also made a lot of profit.
I agree. I also work with a CFP who has a good understanding of both the digital market and stock market. These days experts who have an all-round understanding are in short supply. This last quarter alone I've already made more than 150k in net profit.
I've been wanting to connect with an advisor. Could you help me get in touch with yours?
She goes by *Marissa Lynn Babula.* I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did
Very kind of you. I'll look her up and I hope I'm able to connect with her.
how many videos do you want to make about a possible market crash?
sven: yes
I’d be interested to see the performance by dividend income for all of these players vs the S&P 500. But how can I possibly safeguard and grow $350k cash reserve into a 7 figure ballpark for the next 2 years?
Bitcoin through 2025, then high yield ETFs through the bear market 26’-27’ that's my plan.
Index Funds & ETFs: 40-50%, Emerging Markets (e.g., VWO): 10-15%, Dividend Stocks: 10-20%, Growth Stocks/Small-Caps: 10-20%, REITs: 5-10%
Remember to always work with a knowledgeable person in the financial market when starting out to avoid getting burnt.
“DCA" is the golden term but the key. My dollar portfolio i DCA with is made up of 30% PLTR, 25% NVDA, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends. Q3 taxable divs this year was $18,388.
pls how can I reach this expert?
Her name is Marissa Lynn Babula . I can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
U not boring guy, u cool analyst, keep going Sven!
I believe that investors should constantly use their money, especially The market will begin to diversify more in 2025. Next year, I want to put roughly $350,000 of my money into stocks. In 2025, I hope to earn millions.
It's critical to have a well-planned strategy and refrain from acting rashly in response to transient market swings. You want to think about getting advice from a market specialist.
Indeed, a lot of people downplay the significance of advisors until their own emotions become too much for them to handle. I needed a big boost to keep my firm viable a few summers ago after a lengthy divorce. I found the most qualified advisor after searching for licensed advisors. Despite inflation, she helped me grow my reserve from $275k to $850k.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
My adviser is "'Annette Marie Holt " You can easily look her up. She has years of financial market experience and she is also FINRA & SEC verifiable.
Annette Marie Holt is the licensed advisor i use
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks next year. Hope to make millions this 2025.
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
It's true that many people minimize the importance of advisers until their own feelings burn them out. A few summers ago, following a protracted divorce, I needed a significant boost to keep my business afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with the highest qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing from $275k to $850k despite inflation.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Melissa Terri Swayne for about 4 years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
Sven - You always have great perspective with facts and rationality!
How do we, in US, find value when our 401k has limited options and our 401s are the core positions?
Most offer the SP500 or NASDAQ as primary funds. Some value funds , but not great options.
Lol cuts or no cuts investors are still paying 30x earnings. If there are cuts, what upside is even left?
I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Charlotte Grace Miller for helping me achieve this
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
The very first time we tried, we invested $1400 and after a week, we received $5230. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
I'm celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. started this journey with 6k. I have invested on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
Finally, a guy who gets it. I wonder what you think of the Wilshire comparison to GDP as an index for valuation. Thank you Dr. Lots of good points to digest
Sven, thanks for keeping us all grounded in reality. After investing through the last two crashes, this one will be epic when it pops. My guess is that earnings from all the AI capital investments will be a fraction of what they all expected and AI tech will correct massively. Every large tech company has a large model and they will all erode each other's margins. Meta is even just giving their expensively trained model away for free (for now).
This bubble is very different. Its first time in US history I think when a new bubble formed just two years after the last one. These extreme bubbles usually happen at least 20 years appart as old investors are replaced with newbies who did not lived experienced the last one. This bubble is very unique as people who lost half their money in IPO bubbli in 2021 and crypto are now jumping again all in.
Or the major investors pulled out before the last big C. Now they simply creating another climax before ww3. Unfortunately for them this is likely to be delayed due to not being able to control usa
Yeah that’s true. Also Gold at alltime high. Dollar and Gold going up at the same time … etc.
Something is wrong here😵💫
Yes but from where they have these huge money?
Great video! It would be interesting to see a model showing how the S&P 500 and its earnings might look if the U.S. cuts its deficit.
you would get scenarios, but not relevant for anything...
Not the boring guy, the guy warning about icebergs. What a kill joy! lol.
hahahaha
Great video! A crash is inevitable. What goes up must come down.
HEy Sven. Love your new strategy to post more often shorter videos. I've seen that the wales (Trump/ other big investors) are moving to crypto and pushing that agenda to get that growth that will not come for the next 10 years in stocks. Is crypto a new growth wave for the ones who don;t do Wall Street? If a crises hits, what you think the crypto word will react ? Thank you.
Very good, Sven! Very cunning and prudent.
How about ERF. Price is down, earninigs are growing.
Thank you Sven
Hi, please clarify,
short interest rate is 4 percent.
the earning per share growth rate is just 3 percent (earnings yield right?)
if it was 6 percent that means companies are doing much more money. You said the value would be halfed. Could you please explain this.
nope, the price goes 50% down, and then you have an earnings yield of 6%, from 3 to 6%
if price falls to 50 percent then yield double and it would be time to go in... I will listen again.
Thank you!
Long term investors just need to ignore the chart. Keep adding to your positions, buy the lows, buy the highs and a few years later - bada boom, bada bing!! More ching ching in your pocket.
Sven has become an ironic guy in last parts🙂. I like you Sven 😀
Most people are drunk now! Thank you Sven for your lonely wakeness.
thanks, and yes, I am one of the few that doesn't drink
And yet, all the alcohol and distillery stocks across the globe are in the dumpster and continue to get sold. Who would've guessed?
For Buffet it's a no brainer. Not only do 3 month bonds have a better yield but 10-year bonds have huge risk if the rates go up, or worse it something like a failed auction happens. He wants to be able to jump out of bonds and buy equities and you cannot do that with longer dated bonds without losses if the bond market moves against you just when you need cash to buy equities. Also Jamie Dimmon says JPM sees a wall 10 years out as far as government debt is concerned. Take that for what you will. I don't think governments can take 10 more years of what's happening today with interest payments and deficits.
The reason why P/E keeps expanding is that an increasing number of people are equity buyers. People who never owned stocks are buying into pension schemes and passive ETFs. And these need to buy equities whatever the current price is, they cannot stop buying. And nobody cares if equity yield is 3% vs bonds at 5.5% as long as the price goes up 15% or more per year, that's replaces a yield for a lot of people.
good points! thanks for sharing!
Sven so you will buy just undervalued stocks in this period I assume, if you find otherwise you keep cash. I am not USA based and for me it is not convenient use us bonds because the exchange. What will you do in meantime?
VMFXX babe...
investors have a lot to be grateful for, given recent market moves. The rest of the year and the beginning of 2025 should be merry and bright as well. Despite the S&P 500 doing well. I have lost a large share of my $640k portfolio in the last 4 months . How do I turn this around?
it's all hype! best to ignore the trend at the moment whether bullish or bearish, and stick to a proper trading plan preferably with expertise assistance.
More reason I enjoy my day to day market decisions is that i'm being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downtrends, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis, it's quite impossible not to
I've been looking to switch, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Everyone except Sven’s viewers. Empire comes and goes
:-)
Hi Sven. What would you consider a "proper value" for the s&p nowadays? A rough estimate.. thanks
7% earnings yield
Sven, would you consider an index ETF tracking MSCI EAFE a value investment right now? How about the Canadian index?
here is the problem. More than 50% in stock trading is now done by passive funds (index funds and ETFs) . This percentage increases every year. A large portion of them is held by pension funds. These funds keep buying regardless of interest rates, earning predictions or any other valuation aspect. It is a passive constant bid. So it is more relevant predicting when will you have more withdrawals than contribution, which is more related to demographics than economy.
That's true, passive probably has way more impact on the price-action we see than most people suspect. Not so sure about your point about being more related to demographics than the economy though: during a recession I'd suspect those 401k contributions could quickly ebb off or shift into reverse as people are forced to withdraw to make ends meet after being unemployed for too long. Not necessarily as long as the overall market trend is still up, but once it turns it could quickly turn into a self-reinforcing cycle on the way down, just like it did on the way up.
@@maosw . Good point - in recession people lose jobs so 401k contribution stops, and passive buying on stocks regardless of price is reduced. The demographics point is more of a long term thing - as long as population grows and employed population buys more funds in 401k than retired people that net sells funds, the indices will continue to go higher - regardless of various valuation multiples.
Sven, can you make a video on valuation of bitcoin?
How do you value a ponzi scheme? It's greater-fool-investing, worth exactly as much as someone else is willing to pay for it. People chase it as long as it goes up
Why short term bond are ok?
Because you currently get the same yield as for long ones and short term bonds are not affected by interest rate changes.
So LEAP SPY Puts are a smart move?
Join the party 🥳 🎉
How exactly does one quantify risk under Donald Trump (this is not a political question before any one ‘attacks’)? If I’m calculating WACC what would I use for the discount rate when a tariff or attack from the US president could be put in place on a whim?
fair question. He is pretty unhinged and unprofessional and kind of scary, and brings a lot of risks for a lot of people in a lot of ways.
S&P500 Trailing EPS: 10-Years
...Now *THAT* is a statistic media NEVER shows you. They prefer nobody knows.
Still trust finance news? Me neither...
Asking for a friend: what are the first two words you mention in each episode?
good day fellow investors!
@@Value-Investing I asked about the first two words. More proof you don't see numbers clear anymore.
Just kidding, thanks for the information you share. Really like your channel.
You are maybe right with your theory but please shed some light on the trillions added to the debt, where that money has gone because the money has been created and it was not collected back by the fed so it is in the economy and added to the people's accounts and gdp ,so it has to be invested somewhere and as a result the value of all assets must go up to the level of money in circulation, some corrections can happen but due to availability of so much money it will recover quickly and there is only one way for the markets to go in the long term as long fed printing machines are on, there is no way they will stop printing, some rates up and down will continue to control the inflation otherwise no politician will go for suicide to reduce debt ,I might be wrong but we will see in 10 -20 years who was right, if you agree
They will keep printing until printing doesn't work anymore. Once confidence is lost, printing will not save the economy.
@@kevinp5119 No I think, they will continue printing, and paper money will continue losing its value as always, assets will be expensive, and value increase is the normal outcome of uncontrolled printing
$196 earnings are GAAP earnings. Stock prices track non GAAP earnings. GAAP earnings are influenced by one time non cash charges and thus are not real, operating earnings of the company. Thats why all graphs showing correlation between EPS and share price are using non GAAP EPS.
GAAP earnings are reality. Non GAAP is creative accounting.
Well.. 1) “non recurring” expense is still an expense, every year there are non recurring expense 2) gaap earning is the only metric that can be compared across period. There is no point in comparing across period when the bases are different
@cwaddle I agree
@@kevinp5119Don’t bother, they think that investing consists in convincing themselves that the few dozen companies that everybody knows deserve higher and higher multiples no matter what, and they will resort to all sorts of stories. They don’t know what else to do and recent history has rewarded them. They will learn soon enough.
@@kevinp5119 No. Exact opposite is true. Operating earnings are much closer what company really makes than GAAP. Do you really believe that British Tobacco lost money this year and did not sell any cigarettes simply because they write off something from their book value? 🤔
Do you even understand accounting?
Sven do you ever buy protection on your portfolio ? I know it's generally frowned upon but I'm strongly considering a hedge.
I am very hedged in a way and buying puts now doesn't seem a stupid idea...
I'm shorting SPX with 5x leverage. Wish me luck Sven.
@@pierregentilini4375 Shorting before Christmas? You crazy, bro! 😲
@pierregentilini4375 that's courage or stupidity? I would love to come back here after we know the results
@@pierregentilini4375 right into the year end rally? 😀
Dr. Bubble should have been investing in the Magnificent 7 stocks for the last 2 years and not avoiding them.
Sven, I don't understand. According to macrotrends, actual EPS on Oct 2021 was 172.5 and actual EPS never reached above 200. But on your graph, forward EPS is reaching 280?! Are they gaslighting us? This is misinformation and it should be illegal. Or am I just clueless, uneducated?
well, 280 sounds better than 172.5, no? what are we going to say that the S&P 500 PE ratio is above 30 ? Better to say it is at 22 on forward earnings..
There is a big difference between forward earnings and actual earnings.
If you check the S&P global estimated earnings spreadsheet, you can find historical “as reported” earnings and also operating earnings. Forward estimates seem to be operating earnings. The Jp Morgan chart Sven shows often is also titled “operating EPS”. As of June 2024, those were around 215, still far from the 240-275 projections.
Isn't the phrase " A bubble wondering around looking for a pin" Even the Monkey jpegs are shifting again, bots everywhere. Gamestop moving. That chap buying a $6m Banana sculpture with his Crypto returns, and then eating it. This is all perfectly normal- there's nothing to see here.
I heard Yardeni forecast on cnbc I think and the host was like wow wtf
could actually happen!
Yardeni and Tom Lee were saying the same thing at the top in 2007. It’s never gonna go down, but I have to give them credit because the right for multiple years in a row until they’re wrong.
Hard to fight the Fed when the stimulus is cranking out
@@Garybroker54 damodaran is suggesting yardeni so I guess he is legit
Wish I believed it that market will go down substantial. It was prepared long time ago.
Yeah, what about 3 years ago
Sp500 will go up because asset Inequality will rise as it has done since 2008, there's nothing left for the asset rich to buy
When I'm high, it's hard to tell when he's being sarcastic and when he's not. I hold lots and lots of bonds. Out to 5 years. Better yield than most safe stocks (utilities, big banks, big energy) and preserves my principle.
Pretty much out of stocks. Happy with 4%♡ This time is different!
Seriously? Happy with only 4%?
That's barely the inflation.
@@pontoancoramaybe he or she thinks that the market will be red for the next year?
@@niklas4031 even if us market went down, there are other markets.
Sven you missed a cruical point in your video, AI. Palantir and Nvidia are growing like crazy so it explains the P/E, the whole market will grow now...
I'm joking, this is crazy
Sven,
Please turn off your comment option since it is filled with 99% scammers. You risk your reputation and a possibility of lawsuits when someone lose their savings to the scammers.
I think Google should use the AI to work on that, tells me AI isn't doing that good!
😂😂
By everyone getting rich I imagine you're talking about the 1% cause the wealth distribution couldnt be more unequal this day and age.
Recurring theme in your videos is that the market is overpriced compared to historic patterns. However, today ‘the market’ to great extent comprises just a few mega caps which have extraordinary business models (platform economics, network effects etc.) with high ROIs and a lot of runway. This is rather different from the mega caps of the past (e.g. oil majors). Im not saying the market is cheap, just think that a comparison now vs then may not be appropriate. Not even factored in that today there is just so much more money in the system looking for returns.
thank you for your videos.
This time it is not different. Last bubble popped in 2021 and I doubt companies are much different than in 2021.
I have lived through 4 crashes. You will never see it coming until you are in the middle of it.
Well, even accepting that tech majors have great business models, they face risks for example tightening of loose tax regime, which may increase the tax, regulation of anti-competitive measures, etc. Furthermore, the moral of the story is that the current PE ratio of the entire stock market is extremely high compared to historical norms even in the backstop of higher interest rate environment which doesn’t make any sense.
@cwaddle and the potential actual return is very low compared to historical norms. Low actual return + high prices eventually correct.
More money in the system… looking for returns in places where returns can only come from sustained growth, sustained margins and sustained idiotik multiples. Same thing as in every other bubble. When people buy rental properties or set up businesses, their focus is on earnings yield. When people buy a stock, which is just a piece of a business, why should the focus be any different? And yet at high multiples, with no earnings yield, it is all a bet on growth and sustained valuations. Investing has nothing to do with convincing oneself that multiples should be higher.
But sven still says that sp500 top much exuberant.. 😂😂 when you will capitulate?😊
I agree with your points, the problem is that there’s way too much money and there are no better assets to put them on that could give the same returns as pre fed interest. So everyone is just trying to hold to the old way of living. It’s hard to accept that the best bet is to put in treasuries. It will just take some time before people start losing money and then prices will adjust to follow fundamentals again. Or maybe they will go to crypto 🤷
There was even more money in 2021 and market went down 20-30%. Its interesting how short memory you have.
It was not more money around than today and secondly what happened after that correction?
But money is not destroyed when the market goes down, it just changes hands. Money is printed as well so there is just more money in the world, period.
@@barefeg correct, and they will not burn it but reinvest, the result will be prices of assets going up
@@akhan-hw1pw There was more money as money supply is going down since than and excess spending is drying up. What happened is that people who bought undervalued made killing while people jumping in at top waited almost two years to be break even.
Hopefully there’s a downturn soon. Get some more deals but otherwise keep investing.
There doesn’t seem to be any good reason for this huge year…it seems a bit much
i will still talk to you Sven, even if you are the boring guy at the party talking about fundamentals lol! xD
:-)))
Nikkei 1989.
Ronaldo would buy XAI213K
🤣🤣🤣
It's amazing that this botz comment currently has 900+ thumbs up when the actual video itself only has 600 likes. 😂😂😂
@@davidhalbleib2467 what is also amazing is how Google is so impotent at filtering these scammers out.
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy.
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a FA that can provide you with entry and exit points>.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and i'm eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Eleanor Bonnici Deskin’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Too many spammers below.
Europe has no hope so I invest in US market. I can't be the only one
you certainly aren't given where the US market is going :-)
I can say the same for Brazil market. We are all going to US
There is a party tonight at mr Gatsby mansion. Are you coming? $$$
Lol I teach US History and we just watched The Great Gatsby this week!
Can Trump tariffs cause the market crash?
Biden era market up over 60 Pct ! Trump told people to sell stock in 2020. 😂😂😂
You have some good insights Sven. Can I make a suggestion? Drop the word “value” from your channel name. I think “value” investing has got a bad rep given the underperformance of this investing style over the last decade. If you rename the channel to “investing with Sven Carlin” you might draw a new (younger) viewer base. Anyways, keep up the good work!
go
9:40 this is 100% correct
Sven. Eventually, your fears will be validated, and at some point, there will be indeed a crash or correction you keep predicting. Maybe next week, maybe in a few more months or years. None really knows. Valuations are indeed high from a historical perspective. But it doesn't mean anything with regard to what happens next. When there is a crash, I suspect that subscribers to your platform will be damaged threefold:1st, not participating on the epic run we've recently witnessed, 2nd, abysmal returns of low-PE food stock they followed you into (which will also likely crash), 3rd, by paying you investment platform fees :)
TRump is going to try to run the economy hard, with no care for the 4 to 5 year consequence. Inflation to go up under tariffs and deportations..
TDS
True
Stay away from this guy he is a permabear
LOL, no.
no, he's a value investor. you invest in crypto and forex. lol.
!!I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 185K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a newbie investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market..
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of
information can be a big hurdle. I've been
making more than $200k passively by just
investing through an advisor, and I don't have
to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my
finances remain secure. So I really don't blame
people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analysing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted on thorough research and years of practical experience.
how would you recommend i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach? and How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
More scare tactics and a great way to underperform the market. You can’t time the market. Totally unactionable advice.
you missed the point. watch Sven's videos. consider the risks and be prepared for whatever might happen.