You are actually underselling the difficulty of this fight. Hideki has semi-random AI; it can randomly choose any of the moves, unless they fail, then he will not pick the move. That being said, if it picks Foresight, it cannot pick Foresight again, and same for Focus Energy. The ideal fight is Foresight into Focus Energy into get range and kill. Machop will be picking Low Sweep way more often than you led on.
At the same time, let's not act like Hideki is some unbeatable boss in anything other than a speedrun. The Machop's IVs while high are completely valid and IVs are scaled to a Pokemon's level. So in a normal run where you have a couple of levels and more Pokemon, you're just going to plow through Hideki like pretty much any other trainer
This is surprisingly common. Another good example is celeste's autoscroller skips. A few of them are monstrously difficult (I've never done it once and I've done deathless runs of most of the game's chapters). For one example you need to chain momentum from multiple ultradashes together, jump off of the wall behind a spike without the game registering that you touched the spike. Then after all that you need sub pixel precise positioning and to jump immediately after you release crouch midair in the right spot so the game registers you as standing inside the ceiling for a few frames and you can jump as though you were touching the ground. Then you can finally dash to safety. The casual route though that room is to step on a block before the moving platform comes through and climb a wall to move an obstacle. Then you just ride the platform to the finish
@@solsystem1342 I don't think that's what they meant, obviously most speedrun skips are going to be much harder than playing the game the normal way. The interesting thing here is that the fight is exactly the same whether you're in a casual playthrough or a speedrun - there's nothing extra you have to do, this random trainer just happens to be really hard to beat with 1 mon.
there's so many examples of fights in pokemon runs where casually you don't bat an eyelid, but in a run you absolutely suffer if even one thing goes wrong
@@tortoisecity Isn't that what speedrunning is? Praying that all rng goes your way(or somehow manipulating them) with the least amount of necessary preparations while timing yourself to see who can get the fastest outcome if they made it to the end..?
I know it's annoying to the speedrunners, but I love stuff like this. Just one random guy who didn't play by the "it's a videogame" rules and went out and busted his 28 across the board IVs Machop because he loved it and wanted to train it up. He truly believes that might is right!
Well actually the issue here is IVs, which are determined at birth/encounter for wild Pokémon. This prodigy machop just happened to get picked up by Hideki, or perhaps they were a fated pair of
Let me shed some light on how this programming error came about. The developers assigned a "difficulty value" to each trainer. When read in 8-bit binary, it was intended that the LEFT 5 bits be read to determine the IVs, but instead the RIGHT 5 bits are read. We know this is a mistake, because it makes much more sense for IVs to get higher when you face more prominent trainers, but instead they seem pretty random. Here are some examples of how the error manifests: Black Belt Hideki, difficulty value 120 (01111000) - intended left 5 bits: 01111 (15 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 11000 (24 IVs) Leader Brawly, difficulty value 160 (10100000) - intended left 5 bits: 10100 (20 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 00000 (0 IVs) Elite Four Drake, difficulty value 200 (11001000) - intended left 5 bits: 11001 (25 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 01000 (8 IVs) Champion Steven, difficulty value 240 (11110000) - intended left 5 bits: 11110 (30 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 10000 (16 IVs)
So if the IVs had been all set right, this would have instead been a video about Brawly's pokemon ending speedruns, but still mostly be about how making the gym not skippable has impacted speedruns.
@@MidnyteSketchHonestly. it's more the moveset than the IVs. The IVs push the machop a bit but, it's the fact that it has low sweep that shifts the player to second once it hits. What the IVs do is shift the Low Sweep from never 1HKO to possibly 1HKO on a crit with a bad def/HP IV Mudkip. Regardless of Machop's IVs, it still has a good chance to 2HKO with Focus Energy or 3HKO if it does 3 Low Sweeps. All that is based on its AI
super helpful context, thank you! many people have been asking about this, so it's good to have it written down here, I've already pinned tucker's comment but will point others here as well
Funny how a level 13 Machop gives Speed runners a bad time, but casual gamers just go to town with their Ralts and Tailow or their newly evolved Dustox/ Beautifly.
Yeah it's a common practice in RPGs, hard-hitters show up solo in the sections they can appear in for the first time and then have a weaker companion or two along for the ride if/when they appear later -And then there's Etrian Odyssey II where everything wants you dead right from the onset of 1F-
Definitely read that as "single mom" at first and was trying to figure out where you got the idea of Hideki being female and also a divorced/unmarried parent
Hideki is truly the great equaliser, with both OR and AS runners sweating. He also keeps the runners humble, as casual players normally just sweep him due to extra grinding, having more 'mon and better team coverage, etc.
Why can I not remember his name right now? He is so infamous. Edit: Anthony. Glad I remembered without having to look it up. I have watched way too much Gen II not to have him ingrained in my mind.
It's not just speedruns. He leads with a Geodude and it rains constantly in gen IV. If I picked Cyndaquil as my starter I'm doing everything I can to avoid him
This kinda reminds me of one if the very silly questions about pokemons gameplay systems you can have. Pokemon breeding produces a lot of mons you dont use and will probably just dismiss from the box. If those pokemon get released into the wild, theres surely some where a kid gets lucky and picks up the equivalent of a god machop, thats only slight blemish is that they have the wrong nature or something. I honestly wouldnt be suprised if this was a legitimate reason that villain teams have so many of the same pokemon. Someone out there wanted the optimal version of that pokemon and left a horde of super bidoof in their wake, and all they had to do was bribe the guy releasing them to just give them to the team.
It also explains the high variability of trainers as well. There can be the typical trainers, but every once in a while you have the exploding Koffings and Weezings, and I’d imagine the more powerful bred Pokemon go to the gang leaders
@@youtubeuniversity3638 Have the bribe less than the cost of a pokeball - saves time and money? If I were about to release a bunch of reject Pokemon, and some guy said he'd pay me 50 Pokedolllars each... I'd be up for it. Here's your army of pokemon with five max IVs!
@youtubeuniversity3638 because bribery ends up being cheaper due to pokeball costs, and would show a form of corruption in the system. All those police characters have to serve a purpose other than just battling with Pokémon, right?
Due to the law of large numbers, 50 fights is more than sufficient for you to get a statistically significant sample (30 or so would have done). That’s a brutal right nonetheless. 8:43
@@tortoisecity A small trick in case you don’t want to brutalize yourself again: ask yourself what the outcome be with one more fight. For example, say you’ve done ten battles, and lost 7. If you win the next fight that’s 4/11=44% win rate, and if you lose 3/11 is quite bad. The conclusion doesn’t change much between those two outcomes and you can be comfortable saying the fight is brutal. With your 60/40 split you’d need to go a few more than 10 but I’m pretty sure 15 or 20 would have been sufficient. Keep up the good content, excited to see what your channel becomes.
From a wordbuildig perspective I like the idea of same "difficulty" trainers having some seemingly randomized variability between their values by, like, a couple points in either direction, and even of the occasional random trainer mon being a very well IV'd mon, just because, hey, that'd logically happen every now and again, other people can also get lucky. Heck, I's even accept IVs on trainer mons being variable by save file, personally. But, all that said, 100% see how what I've said above is increasing hell for speedrun doers.
IVs are in 5-bit chunks within the pokemon's data.14 in binary is 01110. If Machop was supposed to have straight 15s, then its IV line would look like "011100111001110011100111001110" If this data was put in wrong so that the game 'clipped' the first bit off, you would instead have "11100111001110011100111001110?" that is, it would read five bits at a time and get 11100 as each IV except possibly the last (which I believe is Speed). As such, its IVs would come out as 28 across the board, with the possible exception of Speed which could be 28 or 29, depending on if the next bit after falling off the end of the data was 1 or 0. The mistake of putting the data in a single bit short, or having the data be read somehow a single bit off from where it was supposed to, suddenly makes the Machop extremely beefy. While I am not sure if these are the exact internal values being misread, the example does seem to suggest that such a mistake is entirely reasonable - if I had to guess, I would suggest that the pointer to the memory address that this specific Machop uses was typoed to be 1 more than it should be, so it starts reading memory one bit 'late'. If this were an older game that used bytecodes like the old NES and such, it's the kind of thing that could probably be fixed with a single Game Genie code, being the result of a single byte of ROM being altered - as it's a 3DS game, no idea.
While this makes some technical sense, i'm not sure it makes any practical sense. What type of modern code would ever cause a single bit offset for one specific trainer? Did his name or tile position overflow or something? This is really confusing.
@@volbla It'd mostly depend on how the data for trainer pokemon is stored. The original comment suggests that it's stored as a string of bits on the cartridge & read from memory when needed. If this is the case then it's possible the memory address of these stats is what's tied to the trainer NPC when the battle begins, and that this address is off by one bit, causing the stats to be wrong. This is definitely not how these things are handled nowadays (at least not manually by a developer), but GameFreak's always kind of done janky shit behind the scenes in their games.
@@macbarrett4088 despite gamefreak's struggles to optimize a lot of parts of modern game engines, they have been _really_ consistent about efficiently storing game data in custom-made data structures. it's something genuinely fascinating to look into and discover how everything that makes up each member of your team is packed up just a big lump of bytes
@@macbarrett4088 I can see something like that being important memory savings back in the day when hardware was very limited, but is that really necessary for the 3DS? Maybe GF would do it regardless of necessity, i don't know. Still sussy.
I like to think Hideaki was intentionally designed that way by a dev who just hates speedrunners. I doubt that's true, but that's a very funny conspiracy in my head.
I appreciate how engaged you are with your community. Probably something that won't last as you grow, but it's still really nice to see since even a lot of the smaller youtubers I've seen barely interact with their viewers. Also you're doing a superb job with your content, can't wait to see more.
thank you! I really enjoy having a discussion with everyone in the comments and learning lots of new things that even meticulous research wouldn't show me - it's a real treat :)
This is amazing timing. I just started a semi blind run of Omega Ruby. Haven't played this in ages, relying on vague memory and general pokemon knowledge. I don't know wtf I'm walking into. This dude almost wiped me, and took down two of my team out of nowhere.
I like the topic and your presentation but I felt like overall the video was missing some impact without an in depth explanation of either 1) the mechanics of why this Machop is so jacked (I know you said you don't understand them but I still want to know) or 2) what time concessions runners have had to make to deal with the machop; conversely, how the run could be faster or more consistent without the Machop Looking forward to the next one!
I don't speedrun games, but this was interesting to hear about. Thanks for the video. I have done a couple Nuzlockes, including Alpha Sapphire, but I don't recall Hideki being too bad. Guess it's different when you have time to train and prepare, unlike a speedrun.
@@tortoisecityYou're welcome. 😁And yeah, that makes sense. The very few times I've done Nuzlockes I have been super cautious (like, fearfully so), but that doesn't mean I always get it right. I do recall one Trainer in Platinum who gave me horrific trouble because of seemingly highly accurate OHKO moves...golly, that made me mad.
I've only tried out nuzlockes, and found that suddenly getting ko'd out of nowhere felt the same as making a lot of progress in a game and then there's a power cut or something and you lose all your progress and just did not enjoy it at all (i can see the appeal if you're good at it or you don't get that feeling though)
@@tortoisecityI feel that, it's a painful feeling. The first time I actually completed a "Nuzlocke" (not just getting about halfway through whatever game I was playing) was White, and I actually only ran a half-Nuzlocke for that: Followed the catch-first-Pokemon-in-area rule, but ignored the permadeath rule. I actually enjoyed that, it pushed me to be okay with zero team planning and adequate Natures and IVs (which I care about a lot even in a story run) while not fearing that power cut feeling. Would recommend for people who want some of the challenge while still having some peace of mind. Since then, I did run an Alpha Sapphire full Nuzlocke, which was more stressful. I seem to recall only losing two or three Pokemon, but I might be misremembering that, ha ha.
@@YarnLalms711 I was also anticipating something along those lines. Just this one random trainer somehow has a machop that's impossibly strong, imagine that
It's not just attack by 1 or 2 points. It's every stat by one or two points. Early in the game. That's about a 10% boost to every single stat this thing has in comparisson to every other mediocre Machop of the same level in the game (which are about all since the game is designed to give early trainers very VERY bad IV spreads). This would be pointless very late game where stats are all over 80-100; but it is a very big deal the earlier in the game it is.
Along similar lines of stuff with the wrong IVs, Volkner's Electivire in Platinum *would* have had 303 IVs in each stat because of a similar typo, but the game's smart enough to check for values outside the 0-31 range and rerolls, resulting in a weird spread of 4/3/29/18/15/19.
@@racerking5901 The source would be the Pokemon Platinum Trainer Data page on the Smogon forums. To summarise: Each Pokemon on a enemy trainer's team in Platinum has a difficulty value between 0 and 255 The IVs of every stat is set to (Difficulty * 31) / 255. Basically, 255 difficulty is 31 IVs. Volkner's Pokemon have a difficulty of 250 (a.k.a. 30 IVs), except Electivire, which has 2500 (would be 303 IVs) The game rerolls Electivire's IVs due to being invalid, but gets a fixed value due to the previous RNG call (for Electivire's personality value) using a fixed seed Which results in an IV spread of 4/3/29/18/15/19 for Electivire.
@@racerking5901 Posted on Smogon (search for "Pokémon Platinum Trainer Data" because I can't post links): "Due to a typo, Volkner's Electivire has a difficulty of 2500 as opposed to the 250 the rest of his team has. If you put this through the difficulty formula I mentioned earlier, this gives it an IV value of 303. Obviously this is illegal, but the game has a failsafe where illegal IV values cause the IVs to get randomly regenerated. However, this is done after the Personality Value is generated, and thus uses the RNG function. And the game doesn't reset the seed/RNG input by the time this failsafe is reached, so it ends up with the same RNG input and thus result every time. Unfortunately for Volkner, the 4/3/29/18/15/19 spread it ends up with is pretty poor."
@@racerking5901 look at the decomp. in res/trainers/0320.json his electivire has a "power" value of 2500 and all his others have 250 - this turns into the "dvs" element of TrainerMonBase. in TrainerData_BuildParty, (dvs * 31 / 255) is used to calculate the IVs. plugging the numbers in you get 30 for 250, and 303 for 2500. the function called by Pokemon_InitWith to set the IVs (and some other data) does reroll all of them if it was passed any out of range value.
I don’t know much about ORAS speedrunning, but are any items used during the run? I was thinking either an Oran berry to increase survivability against Low Sweep, or grabbing the Silk Scarf in Dewford to give a 20% boost to Echoed Voice, decreasing the risk of a 4HKO requirement.
Good to know! The crit is also especially annoying because it means a defensive strategy like starting with an X Defend won’t do much either. X Sp. Attack won’t do any good as well, as repeat uses of Echoed Voice will do functionally the same thing, just one attack later. Hell even Mud Slap accuracy cheese isn’t an option due to No Guard (though I wonder if the lowered accuracy would trick the AI into using Foresight more).
@@PineappleLiarThe thing with Foresight is that yes, technically you can click it as often as you want. But Hideki has a type of AI-pattern which will not click moves if they were to fail (so Hideki will only click both Foresight and Focus Energy once). Best case is you get the 3hit KO and move on without ever getting hit yourself. Next case scenario is getting the kill on turn 4 whilst dodging one crit. Else your run is over.
the silk scarf is optional but recommended, some top runners won't use it if they have a really good kip and can still get the 3 turn, but I would say most runners get the scarf because it's relatively quick and can guarantee the 3 turn
You know what, I did actually get messed up by this guy in a casual run. I didn't really think much of it at the time, but it makes a ton of sense hearing it like this.
I actually kinda love this. Running into a random badass with a single freakishly strong Pokémon who wrecks you before you even fight the actual boss is the sort of thing you see in an anime, meant to teach the protagonist how big the world they've entered really is or something like that. They'd probably go on to fight the gym leader and be like: "This isn't so bad compared to that other guy." The fact that it was caused accidentally by a coding error somehow just makes it better: It's like how MissingNo was just a glitch but became memed as some sort of eldritch, reality-corrupting entity.
And the funny thing about MissingNo, well, at least its RB version, is that it's the weakest of the glitchmons. There are some out there that could slap Arceus and Mega Rayquaza around like a beach ball.
Ok did some math cuz I’m in a stats class rn. First off, your sample size was actually significant; obviously, more would’ve given more precision, but it’s big enough to generalize. Basically, we can be 99% confident that the real percentage of fights lost is between 42.2% and 77.8%. That 99% confidence means that if you were to repeat this experiment a whole bunch, using the same methods every time, you would capture the true proportion every time. So, basically, if you do this fight using the typical run strats, you will lose between 42% and 78% of the time. It’s a wide interval, but even a 42% loss rate is NUTS.
thanks for running those! I totally agree that even the lower end of the odds is crazy, especially for the whole run to be hinging on that chance - most bad fights can heal your way out of at a time cost, but not this one
Btw, it should be noted that these data only apply to the specific Mudkip used this experiment. To get a better inference, you would need to randomly assign IVs the way that they’re assigned when you get the Mudkip.
50 is a totally reasonable sample size. The lowest sample size to get an expectable margin of error is 30. In most statistical tests, this is sufficient enough to make a conclusion with 95% confidence, or 5% error. Of course in the world of Pokemon, this may as well be 50/50 (Looking at you, Heat Wave).
Just found your channel! Can't believe you only have less than 5k subs your content is so good! Definitely subbing and looking forward to the future of your channel!
I always just walled the second gym in ORAS with a quad resist to fighting types like zubat, or the wurmple evolutions, so that machop is virtually nothing to me. It's Brawly's meditite with STAB confusion that gets me since it's such good coverage
It's the same with the slateport devil, that fight is only so brutal for speedrun/challenge runs because those choose Mudkip because of how broken it is in Hoenn, and Grovyle just makes mincemeat out of it.
@@findtheblue yeah, as someone who messes with Pokemon Gen 6 data, most trainers in the game have a default of 15IVs across the board, with the exception of bossfights and battle chateau of course I don't see them making a gym 2 trainer suddenly have a higher IV spread. Not even Brawly himself gets this high of an IV spread.
some people have suggested this, and I think it'd be hard to say either way if it weren't for the fact that later bosses have less than stellar IVs when you would expect them to be stronger
I think this video really needed a comparison to an “intended” machop to really sell the problem. Because to my understanding, the problem really isn’t because of the programming error, but more so the moveset, and the error only makes it worse. But the video doesn’t spend enough time on the error itself or how those stat changes percolate to making the fight truly an abnormal RNG check because of the error. The framing of the narrative is just a little off and I feel like you give too much credit to the IVs without explaining the impact the IVs have on the damage rolls. Still a fun video, learned something new from both the videos and the comments.
They definitely exaggerated the impact of those IVs; IVs are less effective at lower levels, so at level 13, they mean practically nothing. With 15 IVs in every stat and assuming a neutral nature, Hideki's Machop stats would be (in order of: HP, Attack, Defense, Special Attack, Special Defense, and Speed): 43/27/19/16/16/16 With 28 IVs in each stat, they become: 44/29/21/17/17/17
these are fair points, and I think a comparison to a machop without such massive IVs would make for a better video, but personally I lack requisite knowledge or means to replicate the fight exactly enough to do an AB comparison (I suppose I could rig something up in a couple of emulators but without the certainty of it being the same), or to explain the programming error in any detail and give it the necessary depth of how all of the integers are read and the like. Thanks for the comment, I really appreciate people giving thoughtful responses and raising questions!
Don't think the IVs do much at this level, it's maybe just 2 points per stat or so. Just turns out that Low Sweep off 80 base Attack is pretty strong for this stage of the game. Bugsy's Scyther with U-turn is a similar thing. Speedrun doesn't care because it picks Cyndaquil, but casually that's one of the strongest gym mons ever.
@@tortoisecity U-turn Scyther as well as leading Scyther is only in HGSS. Original gen 2 gets the other 2 junkers first and Scyther doesn't have a high-powered STAB. I do not know much about that speedrun either but I'm expecting rival 2 to be harder as usual.
Great video!! Just wonna put it outt here that I think putting "a singular machop" instead of "gym trainer" in the title is a much bigger draw to the video
its a gym trainer being fought on-level without a type advantage or a type that negates fighting altogether and people are shocked that the gym trainer can ko a pokemon in 3-5 turns? there's a reason most speedruns are using the type system to completely negate danger or finishing gym pokemon off in 1-2 turns if you go in to an even match without any advantages on these gym trainers that's what your experience will be its just a coincidence this is the one in or/as which sticks out early enough that players don't have their mudkip 1shot engine online
i mean it's generally true that most early game pokemon on a par with the player can KO a main pretty easily in 3 - 5 turns, but it's rare that you can't do anything to stop it or get past it quickly. I noted in the video that healing can't help you here, and that's an important distinction: runners would happily heal their way out of this for a few seconds loss if that was a reliable way to get past the fight, but that's not the case here. Thanks for the comment!
Funnily enough I remembered this guy from a challenge run long ago that had a distinct lack of fighting counters, good to know i wasn't going insane and bros actually stacked
the speedruns and casual playthroughs sometimes coincide in which fights are hard, but also often the harder fights in speedruns are lesser expected ones
Just my personal feedback… it would’ve been really great to get even a short/simple 10 second explanation as to what happened that affected ONLY this trainer’s IVs. That’s super interesting to me and would’ve been beneficial Also, it’s one thing to say, “these IVs make the fight so much harder”, but another to explain why. Even a few quick damage calcs to show the difference would’ve been really great It was a good video and I enjoyed it for sure!!! Just wanna give feedback because I care about it and want to look forward to seeing more in the future :)
thanks, and it's a valid comment that others have made, a short explanation of the how likely would benefit the video (even though I did choose to focus on the result of the IV change, rather than the IV change itself)
I don’t recall ever having any trouble with this particular Machop. I typically used a Combusken that knew Peck and Power Up Punch and had Speed Boost. I didn’t even really need to use Peck as three turns was plenty of time to make the Attack stat go higher via Power Up Punch and Speed Boost allowed you to outspeed most Pokemon.
in this case I believe it's classic gamefreak incompetence (see: every game prior to this one) but the skip cutscenes thing is purely them trolling, no doubt
He's probably far less of a pain in a casual playthrough than he is in your standard Any% Glitchless run. Casual playthroughs are catching more Pokemon, gaining more levels, and free to go heal in between fights. I would imagine Catch 'em All% also has a better time with him because Catch 'em All% would be packing multiple Psychic and Flying Pokemon and most likely more levels. Jacked though it may be, that Machop is probably not surviving, say, a Kadabra that gets in the first shot.
I love the genre of "devs made an error in some coding value and players have suffered from it ever since". Another good one is how in Morrowind, the pickpocket skill check is accidentally stacked severely against you to the point that you need high level magic buffs to even have a semi-solid shot at success.
it's a great genre, one of my favourites is Digimon world, where the official guides are straight up wrong and if you follow them expecting to do well you will definitely fail
******** EDIT: Oops. I did all that analysis with Karate Chop instead of Low Sweep. Also didn't take EVs into account, lol ******* I ran the stats through an IV calculator, and going from 15 to 29 IVs in all stats gives him plus 1 in everything except for Attack and Defense (+2 each). Running it through Smogon's damage calculator, it's a guaranteed 2HKO on a -Def 0 IV Mudkip with crits either way (15 or 29 IVs). Without crits, it changes the chance of a 2HKO from 25% to 88.7% with 29 IVs, so that's pretty significant. But a speedrunner likely wouldn't settle for a 0IV Mudkip, and I can't imagine a -Def nature being useful. With a neutral nature and 24+ def IVs on Mudkip, even with the 29 IVs on the Machop, it becomes a 3HKO without crits. But it's still a guaranteed 2HKO with crits. If we lower the Machop down to 15 IVs, this means the Mudkip could survive 2 non-crits with only 8 def IVs. (I originally wrote 20, so maybe I made a mistake somewhere, lol) So really, it seems like this battle is influenced by the Machop's IVs, but only if you don't get a good defense stat on the Mudkip...or if you get unlucky RNG, which could happen either way. For a +def Nature Mudkip, it's actually only a 25% chance of 2HKO on crits from a 15 IV Machop...if it also has 31 IVs in defense (even 30 IVs is not enough to save it from a guaranteed 2HKO). As for non-crits against the +def Mudkip, against a 15 Atk Machop, it's a 42.5% chance of 3HKO, and a guaranteed 3HKO from the 29 Atk IV Machop. (actually, the Machop only needs 17 Atk IVs to achieve that) So lots of research and calculations that I probably explained poorly, but basically, I'd argue that the IVs are a smaller factor than plain and simple RNG here, mostly from crits and move choice! The exception is if Mudkip has a neutral defense nature, and between 8~23 defense IVs. It looks like you can soft-reset for a 20+ IV Mudkip (11 def on neutral nature instead of 10), so if you do SR for that def of 11, only an IV of 20~23 would make a difference and not be caught. That's a chance of 4/12 or 1/3, meaning that the programming error only has a 33.3% chance of influencing this battle at most! (it's actually less because this only comes into play when the AI only chooses Karate Chop and never crits). I'm sure speedrunners have dealt with random chances of more than 1/3 in their runs, haha If I've made any mistakes, I welcome any corrections from any other number nerds like myself! haha
The only thing holding Hideki's Machop back is not utilizing the affection mechanic to have a passive +1 boost to critical hit rate. If that was present you REALLY don't want him to Low Sweep you after Focus Energy, because then you can't rely on being lucky enough to not get hit by a crit. He would ALWAYS crit you.
given the 30/50 failure rate, the standard deviation is 0.07, and as such you can be 95% confident that the true failure rate is between 0.46 and 0.74 Generally 30 samples is the minimum you’d want for statistics, 50 is fine, more is always better “statistically significant” is also usually used when the 95% confidence range does not include the expected case (ie the results are statistically significant and indicate a deviation from normal), there’s not really a usual case (null hypothesis) here tho
I think it took me two tries with him. I was trying to beat omega ruby as fast as possible to get a mon some ribbons exclusive to the remake. It took me 9 hours igt to be finshed both main game and the delta episode. I only had 1 great ball to catch rayquaza
if by resources, you mean speedrun guides and the like, you'd be correct. But if you listen to runners talk about hideki during their runs, they likely note that he is just awful
You are actually underselling the difficulty of this fight. Hideki has semi-random AI; it can randomly choose any of the moves, unless they fail, then he will not pick the move. That being said, if it picks Foresight, it cannot pick Foresight again, and same for Focus Energy. The ideal fight is Foresight into Focus Energy into get range and kill. Machop will be picking Low Sweep way more often than you led on.
all fair points; I'll pin this so that others can see it more easily - you would know much better than I do
I think he did fine. You are just overselling your point.
It seems hideki was in the mood to just break our shins
@wansichen3743
1 second ago
is there no rng manip that can solve this problem?
At the same time, let's not act like Hideki is some unbeatable boss in anything other than a speedrun. The Machop's IVs while high are completely valid and IVs are scaled to a Pokemon's level. So in a normal run where you have a couple of levels and more Pokemon, you're just going to plow through Hideki like pretty much any other trainer
Doesn't seem like an error to me. Hideaki was just prepared to kick the player's ass.
He's probably seen as an inspiration in the gym!! 😂🤣
Hideaki just slept nine hours last night, that’s all.
He's looking for that promotion.
if it's not an error and he did prepare, then he's doing a damn fine job
Low kick specifically.
We were all warned about the threat of a top percentage Rattata, but we didn't see the top percentage Machop coming.
Well normal types are weak to fighting types
top percentage unassuming gen one pokemon is always the threat
Chop Precentage
Hideki: "You kept skipping me, I'm gonna kick your butt."
@@tortoisecitytop % ev maxed ditto
it's hilarious to me how this trainer, in all normal circumstances, is nothing to worry about. just in speedruns.
This is surprisingly common. Another good example is celeste's autoscroller skips. A few of them are monstrously difficult (I've never done it once and I've done deathless runs of most of the game's chapters). For one example you need to chain momentum from multiple ultradashes together, jump off of the wall behind a spike without the game registering that you touched the spike. Then after all that you need sub pixel precise positioning and to jump immediately after you release crouch midair in the right spot so the game registers you as standing inside the ceiling for a few frames and you can jump as though you were touching the ground. Then you can finally dash to safety.
The casual route though that room is to step on a block before the moving platform comes through and climb a wall to move an obstacle. Then you just ride the platform to the finish
@@solsystem1342 I don't think that's what they meant, obviously most speedrun skips are going to be much harder than playing the game the normal way. The interesting thing here is that the fight is exactly the same whether you're in a casual playthrough or a speedrun - there's nothing extra you have to do, this random trainer just happens to be really hard to beat with 1 mon.
Game freak devs need to add more trainers like this. Give the speed runners a hard time :)
there's so many examples of fights in pokemon runs where casually you don't bat an eyelid, but in a run you absolutely suffer if even one thing goes wrong
@@tortoisecity Isn't that what speedrunning is? Praying that all rng goes your way(or somehow manipulating them) with the least amount of necessary preparations while timing yourself to see who can get the fastest outcome if they made it to the end..?
I know it's annoying to the speedrunners, but I love stuff like this. Just one random guy who didn't play by the "it's a videogame" rules and went out and busted his 28 across the board IVs Machop because he loved it and wanted to train it up. He truly believes that might is right!
yeah I speedrun some games and I still find these things really funny and interesting
Well actually the issue here is IVs, which are determined at birth/encounter for wild Pokémon. This prodigy machop just happened to get picked up by Hideki, or perhaps they were a fated pair of
@@xandermcdonald8543
Could be that he bred a strong Machop
I've never been exposed to a Pokemon speedrun before, the idea of the optimal early-game strat being a Mudkip screaming endlessly is so funny to me
yep mudkip suffers constantly, this isn't even the only bad fight in oras early game
"My Machop's in the top 1% of Machop!"
gosh no
actually it's much better than that (but I can't math so forgot how to calculate that xD)
this machop is the top 0.000001% of scariest machop to speedrunners
@@Laezar1top 0.0004% (4/31)^6
@@natlus_ Thank you ^^ (although it's 4/32 cause you can have 0 IV so there are 32 IV values)
Let me shed some light on how this programming error came about. The developers assigned a "difficulty value" to each trainer. When read in 8-bit binary, it was intended that the LEFT 5 bits be read to determine the IVs, but instead the RIGHT 5 bits are read. We know this is a mistake, because it makes much more sense for IVs to get higher when you face more prominent trainers, but instead they seem pretty random.
Here are some examples of how the error manifests:
Black Belt Hideki, difficulty value 120 (01111000) - intended left 5 bits: 01111 (15 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 11000 (24 IVs)
Leader Brawly, difficulty value 160 (10100000) - intended left 5 bits: 10100 (20 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 00000 (0 IVs)
Elite Four Drake, difficulty value 200 (11001000) - intended left 5 bits: 11001 (25 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 01000 (8 IVs)
Champion Steven, difficulty value 240 (11110000) - intended left 5 bits: 11110 (30 IVs), actual right 5 bits: 10000 (16 IVs)
Interesting for a hard mode challenge
So if the IVs had been all set right, this would have instead been a video about Brawly's pokemon ending speedruns, but still mostly be about how making the gym not skippable has impacted speedruns.
@@MidnyteSketchHonestly. it's more the moveset than the IVs. The IVs push the machop a bit but, it's the fact that it has low sweep that shifts the player to second once it hits. What the IVs do is shift the Low Sweep from never 1HKO to possibly 1HKO on a crit with a bad def/HP IV Mudkip. Regardless of Machop's IVs, it still has a good chance to 2HKO with Focus Energy or 3HKO if it does 3 Low Sweeps. All that is based on its AI
So, when's the mod that fixes it?
super helpful context, thank you! many people have been asking about this, so it's good to have it written down here, I've already pinned tucker's comment but will point others here as well
Funny how a level 13 Machop gives Speed runners a bad time, but casual gamers just go to town with their Ralts and Tailow or their newly evolved Dustox/ Beautifly.
Tru beautifly just sweep
Just get a Sableye
@@maxspecs good pick. But this Machop knows Foresight.
It’s because they have the time to become stronger
Not to mention that your starter is usually level 16 and evolved by the time you fight Roxanne, before you even get to Brawly's gym.
Finally, a trainer who lives up to their intro dialogue. "Might is right!"
Not an error, Machop just locked in
machop doesn't miss, ever
Honestly single mon trainers having stronger stuff makes sense.
yeah I agree, just too strong in this case for the run
Yeah it's a common practice in RPGs, hard-hitters show up solo in the sections they can appear in for the first time and then have a weaker companion or two along for the ride if/when they appear later
-And then there's Etrian Odyssey II where everything wants you dead right from the onset of 1F-
@yourdemiseishere
Except this Machop was made as a mistake and not intentionally meant to have strong IVs.
@@MarvinPowell1 But it does!
Definitely read that as "single mom" at first and was trying to figure out where you got the idea of Hideki being female and also a divorced/unmarried parent
The guy was training his Machop all his life, pay respects.
I would never dare disrespect hideki, he'll smack me
He's probably the father of the top percentage rattata kid
I love how a single random trainer just becomes a problem like this, all due to a funny error
no one ever said that gamefreak programmed their games well (certainly I didn't)
It's a mercy that this happens early on in the game. So ending a run isn't as devastating as it would be later.
no no, later in the run you have tate and liza to end your run
Hideki is truly the great equaliser, with both OR and AS runners sweating. He also keeps the runners humble, as casual players normally just sweep him due to extra grinding, having more 'mon and better team coverage, etc.
hideki does a great job of humbling omega ruby players while alpha sapphire players struggle against team aqua
Yeah this literally doesn't matter in a casual run
Interesting enough, there’s that hiker spinner just outside of azalea town, with a machop, that WILL end your speed run if challenges you.
I've lost many lnuzockes due to him!
Why can I not remember his name right now? He is so infamous.
Edit: Anthony. Glad I remembered without having to look it up. I have watched way too much Gen II not to have him ingrained in my mind.
the number of runs I've lost to that spinning hiker is brutal, I save before the pass every time
It's not just speedruns. He leads with a Geodude and it rains constantly in gen IV. If I picked Cyndaquil as my starter I'm doing everything I can to avoid him
Might as well snap the player characters neck after they lose cause that save is absolutely getting deleted lmao
you better believe hideki is an instant reset each time
Player is out of usable Pokemon!
Hideki used Cross Chop!
Player blacked out so hard that their reality was erased!
I’m obsessed with speedrun ending trainers because in any other kind of playthrough you blow past chumps like this and the second rival battle
yeah it's a really fascinating phenomenon
@@tortoisecityunless you happen to be playing the Rising Ruby/Sinking Sapphire rom hacks. The second rival fight is ridiculous there
Cool Trainer Brooke
This kinda reminds me of one if the very silly questions about pokemons gameplay systems you can have.
Pokemon breeding produces a lot of mons you dont use and will probably just dismiss from the box.
If those pokemon get released into the wild, theres surely some where a kid gets lucky and picks up the equivalent of a god machop, thats only slight blemish is that they have the wrong nature or something.
I honestly wouldnt be suprised if this was a legitimate reason that villain teams have so many of the same pokemon.
Someone out there wanted the optimal version of that pokemon and left a horde of super bidoof in their wake, and all they had to do was bribe the guy releasing them to just give them to the team.
i like this as a world building concept!
Why bribe when they can just catch the released?
It also explains the high variability of trainers as well. There can be the typical trainers, but every once in a while you have the exploding Koffings and Weezings, and I’d imagine the more powerful bred Pokemon go to the gang leaders
@@youtubeuniversity3638 Have the bribe less than the cost of a pokeball - saves time and money? If I were about to release a bunch of reject Pokemon, and some guy said he'd pay me 50 Pokedolllars each... I'd be up for it. Here's your army of pokemon with five max IVs!
@youtubeuniversity3638 because bribery ends up being cheaper due to pokeball costs, and would show a form of corruption in the system.
All those police characters have to serve a purpose other than just battling with Pokémon, right?
seeing mudkip so much is making me happy. I love him
blessed mudkip
Says "Might is right!" & has insane IVs. Lol.
Anyway, neat analysis video! Thanks for uploading!
thanks for watching! glad you enjoyed it
Due to the law of large numbers, 50 fights is more than sufficient for you to get a statistically significant sample (30 or so would have done). That’s a brutal right nonetheless. 8:43
it's a tough fight for sure, and you're right that 50 fights is certainly enough to show that
@@tortoisecity A small trick in case you don’t want to brutalize yourself again: ask yourself what the outcome be with one more fight. For example, say you’ve done ten battles, and lost 7. If you win the next fight that’s 4/11=44% win rate, and if you lose 3/11 is quite bad. The conclusion doesn’t change much between those two outcomes and you can be comfortable saying the fight is brutal. With your 60/40 split you’d need to go a few more than 10 but I’m pretty sure 15 or 20 would have been sufficient.
Keep up the good content, excited to see what your channel becomes.
Man decided to train his Pokémon against human opponents.
They aim for the balls, always. Sounds like it’s intentional.
They must have learnt Ameri-Do-Te.
“i’m not mathematically literate”
“sqRt (-1)”
manz str8 imagining things
I mean I'm not mathematically literate enough to understand how the programming error works, only what the result of it is
Mathematics puns, what a good day.
From a wordbuildig perspective I like the idea of same "difficulty" trainers having some seemingly randomized variability between their values by, like, a couple points in either direction, and even of the occasional random trainer mon being a very well IV'd mon, just because, hey, that'd logically happen every now and again, other people can also get lucky.
Heck, I's even accept IVs on trainer mons being variable by save file, personally.
But, all that said, 100% see how what I've said above is increasing hell for speedrun doers.
I like the worldbuilding idea too, speedrunners certainly don't though
For half of the video I wasn't paying much attention and thought he was saying Garchomp.
Nah, this is just a Machop
someone else asked "what's a marchop"
IVs are in 5-bit chunks within the pokemon's data.14 in binary is 01110. If Machop was supposed to have straight 15s, then its IV line would look like "011100111001110011100111001110"
If this data was put in wrong so that the game 'clipped' the first bit off, you would instead have "11100111001110011100111001110?" that is, it would read five bits at a time and get 11100 as each IV except possibly the last (which I believe is Speed). As such, its IVs would come out as 28 across the board, with the possible exception of Speed which could be 28 or 29, depending on if the next bit after falling off the end of the data was 1 or 0. The mistake of putting the data in a single bit short, or having the data be read somehow a single bit off from where it was supposed to, suddenly makes the Machop extremely beefy.
While I am not sure if these are the exact internal values being misread, the example does seem to suggest that such a mistake is entirely reasonable - if I had to guess, I would suggest that the pointer to the memory address that this specific Machop uses was typoed to be 1 more than it should be, so it starts reading memory one bit 'late'. If this were an older game that used bytecodes like the old NES and such, it's the kind of thing that could probably be fixed with a single Game Genie code, being the result of a single byte of ROM being altered - as it's a 3DS game, no idea.
Programmer: *Forgets one 0
Speedrunners: Why do I hear boss music?
While this makes some technical sense, i'm not sure it makes any practical sense. What type of modern code would ever cause a single bit offset for one specific trainer? Did his name or tile position overflow or something? This is really confusing.
@@volbla It'd mostly depend on how the data for trainer pokemon is stored. The original comment suggests that it's stored as a string of bits on the cartridge & read from memory when needed. If this is the case then it's possible the memory address of these stats is what's tied to the trainer NPC when the battle begins, and that this address is off by one bit, causing the stats to be wrong. This is definitely not how these things are handled nowadays (at least not manually by a developer), but GameFreak's always kind of done janky shit behind the scenes in their games.
@@macbarrett4088 despite gamefreak's struggles to optimize a lot of parts of modern game engines, they have been _really_ consistent about efficiently storing game data in custom-made data structures. it's something genuinely fascinating to look into and discover how everything that makes up each member of your team is packed up just a big lump of bytes
@@macbarrett4088 I can see something like that being important memory savings back in the day when hardware was very limited, but is that really necessary for the 3DS?
Maybe GF would do it regardless of necessity, i don't know. Still sussy.
I like to think Hideaki was intentionally designed that way by a dev who just hates speedrunners. I doubt that's true, but that's a very funny conspiracy in my head.
I like the idea, but find it more plausible to believe it's that gamefreak hates their audience
"Pokémon is for kids, it's sooooo easy"
Hideki's Machop:
when the game becomes a shin megami tensei fight for one fight
children's video game prompts adult man to make 12 minute video about how hard children's video game is
@@Laezar1Ethan: behold, my pokémons
*casts Ember*
*It was not very effecttive*
"omae wa mou shindeiru"
Ya know, I swept him like nothing on a casual run. I did not realize he was crouching tiger, hidden menace like this.
the silent might is right assassin
99.99999999% of players, just beats him with no trouble and doesn't remember him. Speedrunners: ANYTHING BUT A SLIGHTLY BUFFED MACHOP
speedrunners will surprise you what they route to be fast but difficult
I appreciate how engaged you are with your community. Probably something that won't last as you grow, but it's still really nice to see since even a lot of the smaller youtubers I've seen barely interact with their viewers. Also you're doing a superb job with your content, can't wait to see more.
thank you! I really enjoy having a discussion with everyone in the comments and learning lots of new things that even meticulous research wouldn't show me - it's a real treat :)
For what it's worth, 50 is a perfectly acceptable sample size for this!
Damn you, jacked Chop.
thanks! for something that truly does not matter, I thought it was good enough for the point I was making!
Thats what I was thinking when he said it wasn’t lol
Been a while since I had statistics, but isn’t the appropriate size like 25 or 30 after that ur good
Steven's Cradily anc this single Machop were the bane of my Swampert only run. Before you explained the Machop, I knew what was coming...
yeah this machop kills monotype runs so fast, cradily is just designed to wall swampert tbh
This is amazing timing. I just started a semi blind run of Omega Ruby. Haven't played this in ages, relying on vague memory and general pokemon knowledge. I don't know wtf I'm walking into. This dude almost wiped me, and took down two of my team out of nowhere.
yeah the flipside of most casual players walking past him with no problems is that other people get unexpectedly wasted by him
Seems "ain't nothing but a funky beat-down" is at play with this Hideki..
that's hideki all right
I thought the title was implying that the programming error turns the gym trainer into one of the Pokémon 🐸
that'd be pretty funny
I mean, I assume you have to know what you’re doing to become a gym trainer. Good to see someone taking this job seriously.
he prepared well
Hideki to casual players: A random NPC trainer who is easily defeated
Hideki to speedrunners: The hardest battle in the game
If there's ever an Emerald remake, Hideki would 100% be the new gym leader.
as he deserves
I like the topic and your presentation but I felt like overall the video was missing some impact without an in depth explanation of either
1) the mechanics of why this Machop is so jacked (I know you said you don't understand them but I still want to know)
or
2) what time concessions runners have had to make to deal with the machop; conversely, how the run could be faster or more consistent without the Machop
Looking forward to the next one!
I don't speedrun games, but this was interesting to hear about. Thanks for the video.
I have done a couple Nuzlockes, including Alpha Sapphire, but I don't recall Hideki being too bad. Guess it's different when you have time to train and prepare, unlike a speedrun.
glad you liked it! and some others have noted that in nuzlockes they've had mixed experience with hideki
@@tortoisecityYou're welcome. 😁And yeah, that makes sense. The very few times I've done Nuzlockes I have been super cautious (like, fearfully so), but that doesn't mean I always get it right. I do recall one Trainer in Platinum who gave me horrific trouble because of seemingly highly accurate OHKO moves...golly, that made me mad.
I've only tried out nuzlockes, and found that suddenly getting ko'd out of nowhere felt the same as making a lot of progress in a game and then there's a power cut or something and you lose all your progress and just did not enjoy it at all (i can see the appeal if you're good at it or you don't get that feeling though)
@@tortoisecityI feel that, it's a painful feeling. The first time I actually completed a "Nuzlocke" (not just getting about halfway through whatever game I was playing) was White, and I actually only ran a half-Nuzlocke for that: Followed the catch-first-Pokemon-in-area rule, but ignored the permadeath rule. I actually enjoyed that, it pushed me to be okay with zero team planning and adequate Natures and IVs (which I care about a lot even in a story run) while not fearing that power cut feeling. Would recommend for people who want some of the challenge while still having some peace of mind.
Since then, I did run an Alpha Sapphire full Nuzlocke, which was more stressful. I seem to recall only losing two or three Pokemon, but I might be misremembering that, ha ha.
Love this 💯💯💯
thanks!
You really upsell that 28 IV, but it only raises its stats by 1-2 points. Brawleys level 14 Machop is more powerful stat-wise.
Honestly, when he brought up the programming error, I expected him to say "They gave it 51 IVs all around by accident." Which would've been hilarious.
@@YarnLalms711 I was also anticipating something along those lines. Just this one random trainer somehow has a machop that's impossibly strong, imagine that
that's kinda the gist of pokemon speedrun's early game though, you are so limited in tools that this case actually mattered
@@jamesaditya5254imo he should've shown the impact on the actual stats in the video.
It's not just attack by 1 or 2 points. It's every stat by one or two points. Early in the game. That's about a 10% boost to every single stat this thing has in comparisson to every other mediocre Machop of the same level in the game (which are about all since the game is designed to give early trainers very VERY bad IV spreads).
This would be pointless very late game where stats are all over 80-100; but it is a very big deal the earlier in the game it is.
I would love more trainers (preferably optional ones) with optimized pokemon. Just for that little extra challenge.
yeah me too
Along similar lines of stuff with the wrong IVs, Volkner's Electivire in Platinum *would* have had 303 IVs in each stat because of a similar typo, but the game's smart enough to check for values outside the 0-31 range and rerolls, resulting in a weird spread of 4/3/29/18/15/19.
Source? This sounds impossible given that IVs are stored in only 5 bits.
@@racerking5901 The source would be the Pokemon Platinum Trainer Data page on the Smogon forums.
To summarise:
Each Pokemon on a enemy trainer's team in Platinum has a difficulty value between 0 and 255
The IVs of every stat is set to (Difficulty * 31) / 255. Basically, 255 difficulty is 31 IVs.
Volkner's Pokemon have a difficulty of 250 (a.k.a. 30 IVs), except Electivire, which has 2500 (would be 303 IVs)
The game rerolls Electivire's IVs due to being invalid, but gets a fixed value due to the previous RNG call (for Electivire's personality value) using a fixed seed
Which results in an IV spread of 4/3/29/18/15/19 for Electivire.
@@racerking5901 Posted on Smogon (search for "Pokémon Platinum Trainer Data" because I can't post links):
"Due to a typo, Volkner's Electivire has a difficulty of 2500 as opposed to the 250 the rest of his team has. If you put this through the difficulty formula I mentioned earlier, this gives it an IV value of 303. Obviously this is illegal, but the game has a failsafe where illegal IV values cause the IVs to get randomly regenerated. However, this is done after the Personality Value is generated, and thus uses the RNG function. And the game doesn't reset the seed/RNG input by the time this failsafe is reached, so it ends up with the same RNG input and thus result every time. Unfortunately for Volkner, the 4/3/29/18/15/19 spread it ends up with is pretty poor."
that's super fascinating! god pokemon games coding is just so bizarre
@@racerking5901 look at the decomp.
in res/trainers/0320.json his electivire has a "power" value of 2500 and all his others have 250 - this turns into the "dvs" element of TrainerMonBase.
in TrainerData_BuildParty, (dvs * 31 / 255) is used to calculate the IVs.
plugging the numbers in you get 30 for 250, and 303 for 2500.
the function called by Pokemon_InitWith to set the IVs (and some other data) does reroll all of them if it was passed any out of range value.
I don’t know much about ORAS speedrunning, but are any items used during the run? I was thinking either an Oran berry to increase survivability against Low Sweep, or grabbing the Silk Scarf in Dewford to give a 20% boost to Echoed Voice, decreasing the risk of a 4HKO requirement.
The route already has silk scarf on at this point
Good to know! The crit is also especially annoying because it means a defensive strategy like starting with an X Defend won’t do much either. X Sp. Attack won’t do any good as well, as repeat uses of Echoed Voice will do functionally the same thing, just one attack later. Hell even Mud Slap accuracy cheese isn’t an option due to No Guard (though I wonder if the lowered accuracy would trick the AI into using Foresight more).
@@PineappleLiarThe thing with Foresight is that yes, technically you can click it as often as you want. But Hideki has a type of AI-pattern which will not click moves if they were to fail (so Hideki will only click both Foresight and Focus Energy once).
Best case is you get the 3hit KO and move on without ever getting hit yourself. Next case scenario is getting the kill on turn 4 whilst dodging one crit. Else your run is over.
the silk scarf is optional but recommended, some top runners won't use it if they have a really good kip and can still get the 3 turn, but I would say most runners get the scarf because it's relatively quick and can guarantee the 3 turn
@@PineappleLiar Actually, Echoed Voice grows linearly, so while it doesn't matter for this, after the third turn, the X-item is better.
You know what, I did actually get messed up by this guy in a casual run. I didn't really think much of it at the time, but it makes a ton of sense hearing it like this.
yeah he is really tough, can take you by surprise
I’m glad the tradition of coding errors making Pokémon crazy difficult has continued into the modern age! Great video.
thanks! and yes gamefreak totally messing up the coding to make life harder is totally vintage, we love to see it
I actually kinda love this. Running into a random badass with a single freakishly strong Pokémon who wrecks you before you even fight the actual boss is the sort of thing you see in an anime, meant to teach the protagonist how big the world they've entered really is or something like that. They'd probably go on to fight the gym leader and be like: "This isn't so bad compared to that other guy."
The fact that it was caused accidentally by a coding error somehow just makes it better: It's like how MissingNo was just a glitch but became memed as some sort of eldritch, reality-corrupting entity.
it is pretty entertaining overall
And the funny thing about MissingNo, well, at least its RB version, is that it's the weakest of the glitchmons. There are some out there that could slap Arceus and Mega Rayquaza around like a beach ball.
You make good music and good videos. Glad the algorhythm picked you up judging from your highly varying view counts
thanks! best part of the algorithm picking me up is the comments tbh, it's fun to talk about this stuff with lots of other people
@@tortoisecity Nice glad to hear :)
Ok did some math cuz I’m in a stats class rn. First off, your sample size was actually significant; obviously, more would’ve given more precision, but it’s big enough to generalize.
Basically, we can be 99% confident that the real percentage of fights lost is between 42.2% and 77.8%. That 99% confidence means that if you were to repeat this experiment a whole bunch, using the same methods every time, you would capture the true proportion every time.
So, basically, if you do this fight using the typical run strats, you will lose between 42% and 78% of the time. It’s a wide interval, but even a 42% loss rate is NUTS.
thanks for running those! I totally agree that even the lower end of the odds is crazy, especially for the whole run to be hinging on that chance - most bad fights can heal your way out of at a time cost, but not this one
Btw, it should be noted that these data only apply to the specific Mudkip used this experiment. To get a better inference, you would need to randomly assign IVs the way that they’re assigned when you get the Mudkip.
makes sense, want a decent amount of different kips to test with
Wow i never knew that thanks mr tortoise
i love learning new things from mr tortoise
thanks mr frosty and ms chloe, I hope you'll keep learning new things from mr tortoise
something so funny about a trainer with such a powerful pokémon that looks like an alien baby
machop is a weird little guy
You got blessed by the algorithm!
I've had this channel for a little while and even now I don't understand how the algorithm works, and probably never will
Clearly in the next pokemon game Hideki should show up as a newly minted gym leader with an overpowered Machamp.
agreed, make him a frontier boss or smth, that'd be great
50 is a totally reasonable sample size. The lowest sample size to get an expectable margin of error is 30. In most statistical tests, this is sufficient enough to make a conclusion with 95% confidence, or 5% error. Of course in the world of Pokemon, this may as well be 50/50 (Looking at you, Heat Wave).
heat wave, fire blast in colo, rock slide in gen 1, you name them, they;re 50/50 to hit
great video man
thank you!
Why are you here Dev wtf lol
@@jonathanh.2038 why not
@@ShortFatOtaku Whyd you name a pokemon?
Just found your channel! Can't believe you only have less than 5k subs your content is so good! Definitely subbing and looking forward to the future of your channel!
thanks! glad you like the stuff I put out
I never realized this guy was a menace, he killed one of my mons in a nuzlock with a crit actually
Yep he'll do exactly that, over and over
I always just walled the second gym in ORAS with a quad resist to fighting types like zubat, or the wurmple evolutions, so that machop is virtually nothing to me. It's Brawly's meditite with STAB confusion that gets me since it's such good coverage
yeah stab confusion is a killer in any early game, since few early pokemon have any sp def
@@tortoisecity especially if you are using a poison type to resist all the fighting types
Machop is my favourite pokémon and this makes me very happy. Thank you for the video
thank you! glad you liked it
I got an idea for a rom hack of ORAS:
Make the Machop have 0 IVs in all stats to get revenge
I like this, and I also like the people who have suggested the opposite: give it maxed EVs and IVs with competitive moveset, to make it worse
@@tortoisecitylmao
You will think this would get patched when wifi has been commonplace for years when the game were released 🙄
god i wish gamefreak would actually patch their mistakes
I wonder if there is a world where catching/evolving exactly a shedninja is correct to help get past hideki?
I've thought about this quite a bit, and I think it would be really funny to do
You looking at the machop and then to your mudkip
alright "objective, survive!"
It's almost as though this fight wasn't meant to be fought with just a low level mudkip.
It's the same with the slateport devil, that fight is only so brutal for speedrun/challenge runs because those choose Mudkip because of how broken it is in Hoenn, and Grovyle just makes mincemeat out of it.
maybe so, but machop also wasn't meant to have 28 IVs across the board
Brawly: I need powerful trainers to make my gym a proper test for challengers.
Hideki: *sneaks steroids into his Machop* Got it, boss!
Lol his machop is just gifted… I could understand if he hit the mall an loaded up on proteins an carbo ever stat maxed lol but that is not the case.
0:43 those aren't the real covers.
yeah I mean it's not a real drawing of machop either, hardly think it detracts from the point
me with my main ace ralts in oras against hideki: hold my beer
To say that this was a mistake implies that speedruns are of any interest to the developers, which I don't think is true
how is that implied? the stats are incorrect regardless of whether the player is speedrunning or not
@@findtheblue yeah, as someone who messes with Pokemon Gen 6 data, most trainers in the game have a default of 15IVs across the board, with the exception of bossfights and battle chateau of course
I don't see them making a gym 2 trainer suddenly have a higher IV spread. Not even Brawly himself gets this high of an IV spread.
it's true that the devs hate speedrunners, for sure
this sounds like an intended wall for an actual challenge during any run.
some people have suggested this, and I think it'd be hard to say either way if it weren't for the fact that later bosses have less than stellar IVs when you would expect them to be stronger
I think this video really needed a comparison to an “intended” machop to really sell the problem.
Because to my understanding, the problem really isn’t because of the programming error, but more so the moveset, and the error only makes it worse. But the video doesn’t spend enough time on the error itself or how those stat changes percolate to making the fight truly an abnormal RNG check because of the error.
The framing of the narrative is just a little off and I feel like you give too much credit to the IVs without explaining the impact the IVs have on the damage rolls.
Still a fun video, learned something new from both the videos and the comments.
They definitely exaggerated the impact of those IVs; IVs are less effective at lower levels, so at level 13, they mean practically nothing.
With 15 IVs in every stat and assuming a neutral nature, Hideki's Machop stats would be (in order of: HP, Attack, Defense, Special Attack, Special Defense, and Speed): 43/27/19/16/16/16
With 28 IVs in each stat, they become: 44/29/21/17/17/17
these are fair points, and I think a comparison to a machop without such massive IVs would make for a better video, but personally I lack requisite knowledge or means to replicate the fight exactly enough to do an AB comparison (I suppose I could rig something up in a couple of emulators but without the certainty of it being the same), or to explain the programming error in any detail and give it the necessary depth of how all of the integers are read and the like. Thanks for the comment, I really appreciate people giving thoughtful responses and raising questions!
Don't think the IVs do much at this level, it's maybe just 2 points per stat or so. Just turns out that Low Sweep off 80 base Attack is pretty strong for this stage of the game. Bugsy's Scyther with U-turn is a similar thing. Speedrun doesn't care because it picks Cyndaquil, but casually that's one of the strongest gym mons ever.
I'm not an expert on gen two, but the current route for crystal uses totodile I'm pretty sure, and Bugsy can be a menace there
@@tortoisecity U-turn Scyther as well as leading Scyther is only in HGSS. Original gen 2 gets the other 2 junkers first and Scyther doesn't have a high-powered STAB. I do not know much about that speedrun either but I'm expecting rival 2 to be harder as usual.
That makes more sense, U turn scyther lead at that point is terrifying
Great video!! Just wonna put it outt here that I think putting "a singular machop" instead of "gym trainer" in the title is a much bigger draw to the video
that's a fair point! Thanks for watching and I am glad you enjoyed it :)
A mudkip killed his dog
brutally, I might add
its a gym trainer being fought on-level without a type advantage or a type that negates fighting altogether
and people are shocked that the gym trainer can ko a pokemon in 3-5 turns?
there's a reason most speedruns are using the type system to completely negate danger or finishing gym pokemon off in 1-2 turns
if you go in to an even match without any advantages on these gym trainers that's what your experience will be
its just a coincidence this is the one in or/as which sticks out early enough that players don't have their mudkip 1shot engine online
i mean it's generally true that most early game pokemon on a par with the player can KO a main pretty easily in 3 - 5 turns, but it's rare that you can't do anything to stop it or get past it quickly. I noted in the video that healing can't help you here, and that's an important distinction: runners would happily heal their way out of this for a few seconds loss if that was a reliable way to get past the fight, but that's not the case here. Thanks for the comment!
he is a black belt, after all.
it's only right that he's buff
This was a neat video
thanks!
Funnily enough I remembered this guy from a challenge run long ago that had a distinct lack of fighting counters, good to know i wasn't going insane and bros actually stacked
yeah machop jacked as heck
I'd love to know how other gym fights stack up to their casual run counterparts. Whitney's Miltank comes to mind.
the speedruns and casual playthroughs sometimes coincide in which fights are hard, but also often the harder fights in speedruns are lesser expected ones
Just my personal feedback… it would’ve been really great to get even a short/simple 10 second explanation as to what happened that affected ONLY this trainer’s IVs. That’s super interesting to me and would’ve been beneficial
Also, it’s one thing to say, “these IVs make the fight so much harder”, but another to explain why. Even a few quick damage calcs to show the difference would’ve been really great
It was a good video and I enjoyed it for sure!!! Just wanna give feedback because I care about it and want to look forward to seeing more in the future :)
thanks, and it's a valid comment that others have made, a short explanation of the how likely would benefit the video (even though I did choose to focus on the result of the IV change, rather than the IV change itself)
Outstanding! 🔥🔥🔥
thanks!
I don’t recall ever having any trouble with this particular Machop. I typically used a Combusken that knew Peck and Power Up Punch and had Speed Boost. I didn’t even really need to use Peck as three turns was plenty of time to make the Attack stat go higher via Power Up Punch and Speed Boost allowed you to outspeed most Pokemon.
speed boost power up punch and peck combusken would murder this chop
neat video. subscribed
thanks!
What if GameFreak is just trolling speedrunners by this point? The ""option to skip cut-scenes"" in Let's Go already made me think that.
in this case I believe it's classic gamefreak incompetence (see: every game prior to this one) but the skip cutscenes thing is purely them trolling, no doubt
@@tortoisecity How is skipping cutscenes anything but useful for speedrunning?
Sounds like a skill issue. Chad Machop kicking ass.
skill issue always a viable explanation
It's worth pointing out that it's "HEE-deh-key", rather than "he-DEH-key".
yeah I gotta get with my name pronunciation
He's probably far less of a pain in a casual playthrough than he is in your standard Any% Glitchless run. Casual playthroughs are catching more Pokemon, gaining more levels, and free to go heal in between fights.
I would imagine Catch 'em All% also has a better time with him because Catch 'em All% would be packing multiple Psychic and Flying Pokemon and most likely more levels. Jacked though it may be, that Machop is probably not surviving, say, a Kadabra that gets in the first shot.
nope it would get wiped by kadabra or basically anything but a level 13 mudkip, but also o7 to anyone doing a catch em all in omega ruby
I always thought I was crazy when it came to this fight. It all makes sense now.
there's always a decent chance you just breeze past him, but also a strong chance he totally walls you
Read the the title as a gym trainer turned into a pokemon....
lmao I can see that
I love the genre of "devs made an error in some coding value and players have suffered from it ever since". Another good one is how in Morrowind, the pickpocket skill check is accidentally stacked severely against you to the point that you need high level magic buffs to even have a semi-solid shot at success.
it's a great genre, one of my favourites is Digimon world, where the official guides are straight up wrong and if you follow them expecting to do well you will definitely fail
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EDIT: Oops. I did all that analysis with Karate Chop instead of Low Sweep.
Also didn't take EVs into account, lol
*******
I ran the stats through an IV calculator, and going from 15 to 29 IVs in all stats gives him plus 1 in everything except for Attack and Defense (+2 each).
Running it through Smogon's damage calculator, it's a guaranteed 2HKO on a -Def 0 IV Mudkip with crits either way (15 or 29 IVs). Without crits, it changes the chance of a 2HKO from 25% to 88.7% with 29 IVs, so that's pretty significant. But a speedrunner likely wouldn't settle for a 0IV Mudkip, and I can't imagine a -Def nature being useful.
With a neutral nature and 24+ def IVs on Mudkip, even with the 29 IVs on the Machop, it becomes a 3HKO without crits. But it's still a guaranteed 2HKO with crits. If we lower the Machop down to 15 IVs, this means the Mudkip could survive 2 non-crits with only 8 def IVs. (I originally wrote 20, so maybe I made a mistake somewhere, lol)
So really, it seems like this battle is influenced by the Machop's IVs, but only if you don't get a good defense stat on the Mudkip...or if you get unlucky RNG, which could happen either way.
For a +def Nature Mudkip, it's actually only a 25% chance of 2HKO on crits from a 15 IV Machop...if it also has 31 IVs in defense (even 30 IVs is not enough to save it from a guaranteed 2HKO). As for non-crits against the +def Mudkip, against a 15 Atk Machop, it's a 42.5% chance of 3HKO, and a guaranteed 3HKO from the 29 Atk IV Machop. (actually, the Machop only needs 17 Atk IVs to achieve that)
So lots of research and calculations that I probably explained poorly, but basically, I'd argue that the IVs are a smaller factor than plain and simple RNG here, mostly from crits and move choice! The exception is if Mudkip has a neutral defense nature, and between 8~23 defense IVs. It looks like you can soft-reset for a 20+ IV Mudkip (11 def on neutral nature instead of 10), so if you do SR for that def of 11, only an IV of 20~23 would make a difference and not be caught. That's a chance of 4/12 or 1/3, meaning that the programming error only has a 33.3% chance of influencing this battle at most! (it's actually less because this only comes into play when the AI only chooses Karate Chop and never crits). I'm sure speedrunners have dealt with random chances of more than 1/3 in their runs, haha
If I've made any mistakes, I welcome any corrections from any other number nerds like myself! haha
Oops. I did all that analysis with Karate Chop instead of Low Sweep.
Also didn't take EVs into account, lol
I mean it's an interesting way to look at it, I'd also emphasize that 50% crit chance on a high power move is plenty enough for this fight to be scary
The only thing holding Hideki's Machop back is not utilizing the affection mechanic to have a passive +1 boost to critical hit rate. If that was present you REALLY don't want him to Low Sweep you after Focus Energy, because then you can't rely on being lucky enough to not get hit by a crit. He would ALWAYS crit you.
I mean, it certainly already feels that way
Based Hideki. Screw dem speedrunners
(I'm kidding, I literally have nothing against speedrunners at all)
given the 30/50 failure rate, the standard deviation is 0.07, and as such you can be 95% confident that the true failure rate is between 0.46 and 0.74
Generally 30 samples is the minimum you’d want for statistics, 50 is fine, more is always better
“statistically significant” is also usually used when the 95% confidence range does not include the expected case (ie the results are statistically significant and indicate a deviation from normal), there’s not really a usual case (null hypothesis) here tho
I think it took me two tries with him. I was trying to beat omega ruby as fast as possible to get a mon some ribbons exclusive to the remake. It took me 9 hours igt to be finshed both main game and the delta episode. I only had 1 great ball to catch rayquaza
I love the way you say JACKED
it requires emphasis, the machop is really jacked
I haven't seen a single resources stating this fight was anything noteworthy?
if by resources, you mean speedrun guides and the like, you'd be correct. But if you listen to runners talk about hideki during their runs, they likely note that he is just awful