This was a great video! I'm big into stats so any video discussing it will get my interest, but you did such a good job explaining it to people who don't understand the more advanced metrics as well as being sure to display the fact that presenting the stats WITH context is important
Thanks so much, i was definitely aware of the different archetypes of power vs contact hitters but this is an incredible breakdown differentiating them statistically
A single question by the Phillies announcers about why Jake Bauers wasn't a better hitter sent me down a rabbit hole that brought me here. Your video at least confirmed that I was properly interpreting all of the numbers (so thank you for that) and I initially thought I found my answer.... until I compared him to Bryce Harper. Needless to say, my head hurts. While I think Baseball Savant and Fangraphs have great stuff, I just don't know how to put it all into context and I get really overwhelmed. Anyway, thanks for the good video and I'm happy to have found another quality baseball channel.
I don't know why i watched this whole thing when I know al this. All I can say is I wish i saw this years ago before I had to figure it out myself. Great content and super engaging
Vladdy is a great example of a player whose expected stats and Sabermetrics make him appear to be a far greater hitter than he actually is (as of early 2024). It’s been 3 years now of waiting for his return to HOF hitting status and he’s been steadily treading along to “slightly above average” level throughout that entire time after 2021. I’m not gonna pretend like I know why he’s been underachieving (even the Jays don’t know why) but the difference between his expected stats and actual stats are insane!!! 😅
his expected stats show that he’s unlucky but he’s consistently unlucky cause his swing path, speed, etc is pretty bad. If vladdy could literally just get his bat under the ball he’d be insane (as seen in 2021)
Great video man, I'd love to see the other offensive ones and the pitcher savant breakdowns. Already knew a decent amount about Savant, but it's cool to see exactly what goes into each statistic.
I still use OPS all the time. I’ve always assumed it was made to make slash lines more digestible by looking at just one number and it does that very well. One big problem is it assumes that OBP and SLG are equal in scale, when they’re not. But, stats like wOBA, OPS+, and wRC+ just won’t be highly recognized by fans currently, even if they’re more accurate or easier to understand, and that’s fine.
I do annual updates of R.B.I. Baseball (NES) and Ken Griffey Baseball (SNES). I use BaseballSavant religiously for things like Sprint Speed when determining how fast a runner is and Fastball Velocity for pitchers' speed.
@@Eidenhoek for slugging yeah, but for ops it is, the difference between a .400 slugging and a .600 slugging is not the same as the difference between a .350 obp and a .400 obp
I’m definitely open to doing it. But, it likely won’t be my next one as I’m working on a different topic at the moment. I could see myself doing it sometime during this season for sure though!
I’m definitely not saying it isn’t good, it’s just part of the bit I was doing. That part and actually this whole video was inspired by a tweet I saw last summer of someone replying to someone else with Luis Arraez’s Savant page, insinuating it was bad.
Does xBA take into account the angle it’s hit at between first and third? That feels like it would be important. Also a pleasant surprise hearing tunic music at the end.
No they do not, which is definitely something that’s significant. It’s only the launch angle and exit velocity. So, a ball hit to the third baseman and a ball hit up the middle would be treated the same. Also, you’re the first person that’s recognized the Tunic music, I use it at the end of every video!
That’s actually one of the problems people have with the savant expected stats, they don’t take into account if the ball was pulled or not. Basically, pulled fly balls can often outperform the expected results, which is why a guy like Isaac Paredes gets underrated by baseball savant. Paredes pulls a lot of fly balls without necessarily hitting them super hard, so the expected stats predicts he flies out a lot, but in reality he’s pulling the ball enough to hit it out for home runs. In the inverse, spray ball hitters get overrated by predictive stats, due to how often they’ll hit a ball hard to center which will result in a fly out, despite the expected stats predicting otherwise. It’s why last year savant actually expected Acuña to have an even better year than he did, because of the fact he wasn’t pulling the ball as much.
I thought this was a great video and I'm looking forward to seeing more videos from you. A big problem with the Baseball Reference pages is that it robs the context of the player, thier skills, and what they actually provide to a team. It almost encourages baseball fans to have a disconnect to the game in favor of spreadsheets. I think that is one of the biggest sins of people who use baseball reference incorrectly. I think you did a good job at bridging the gap between these stats and what they mean on the plate. You show what Arraez brings to the table and why he is valuable. You dont want Arraez to be Schwarber and vice vera because they both have different skillsets that gravitate towards a certain kind of philosophy regarding hitting. One thing I will fight about is your segment on pushback on the 'X' stats. There isnt a pushback on the 'X' stats because analytics = bad. There is a pushback because they ask you to iqnore the real life game in favor of a theoretical number that never happened that is powered by an excel formula. It is trying to predict the future, by ironically using a number that didnt happen that came from formula that is flawed in principle. The information going in may be good, but if the formula is flawed in its concept, then is there value in it's answer? Since you think the 'X' stats are valuable, i think it would be interesting to hear an argument of thier legitimacy sometime in the future. Anyways, subbed
I think that’s completely valid. My appreciation of them is just added information. In a similar way that OPS was made so people could easily digest slash lines, to me, these were made to more easily digest Hard-Hit%, Barrels, Sweet-Spots and so on. So, although I think you get a lot more out of looking at the things that make xStats what they are, sometimes I just like to get a quickly digestible version of all those things combined. But, context is important and it’s why I say they can’t predict the future and they aren’t proof that a player is being robbed of performance. Results are still results at the end of the day and if someone underperforms xStats for three straight years, they probably will just keep underperforming barring a big change.
I was hoping someone was gonna catch that cause I was laughing when I saw it. You can’t see it in this video, but that clip continues and they were clearly FREAKING out and worried if they got in trouble for almost messing up that play.
I don't personally like xba because i've always saw Jose Altuve with a bad xba compared to his actual average pretty much for every year of his career.
Altuve’s one of the biggest examples of a player that consistently over performs what the expected stats think he should be doing. At this point, his “over performance” has become so consistent over his career, you can only assume at this point it is some sort of flaw in the stat.
@@ABrandNewBallGameyeah it's not a perfect stat, that'd be impossible, it must be used with context, most of the time it's close enough to accurate to be considered
Anyone using baseball savant to discredit arraez is a moron. All I see is the best contact hitter in baseball by a mile when I look at his statcast numbers
Baseball savant to me is like participation trophies, making bad players feeling better about themselves by calculating useless stuff like swing rate and Hard Hit balls
good lord juan soto on that walk list
Baseball savant pages should tell you 2 things: 1. how a player hits and 2. Is it sustainable
yep i hate it when people say expected stats don’t mean anything. they just don’t know how to use them
Wonderful video! I watched it during my lunch break. When I saw the K% I thought red meant they struck out a lot. Lol
Haha I can definitely see making that mistake, it’s certainly not the first time I’ve heard that
Luis Arraez def strikes out the most in the game
The elden ring baseball savant comparison is actually goated
This was a great video!
I'm big into stats so any video discussing it will get my interest, but you did such a good job explaining it to people who don't understand the more advanced metrics as well as being sure to display the fact that presenting the stats WITH context is important
That was definitely the goal and I’m glad you enjoyed it!
“I’m starting the video with a bit of hyperbole”
You say this after describing a situation I’veseen play out a thousand times since 2017 😭
Thanks so much, i was definitely aware of the different archetypes of power vs contact hitters but this is an incredible breakdown differentiating them statistically
A single question by the Phillies announcers about why Jake Bauers wasn't a better hitter sent me down a rabbit hole that brought me here. Your video at least confirmed that I was properly interpreting all of the numbers (so thank you for that) and I initially thought I found my answer.... until I compared him to Bryce Harper. Needless to say, my head hurts. While I think Baseball Savant and Fangraphs have great stuff, I just don't know how to put it all into context and I get really overwhelmed. Anyway, thanks for the good video and I'm happy to have found another quality baseball channel.
I don't know why i watched this whole thing when I know al this. All I can say is I wish i saw this years ago before I had to figure it out myself. Great content and super engaging
“But does he get on base?” - Brad Pitt; Fight Club
No, you got it wrong.
Tom Hardy said it in Fight Club.
Vladdy is a great example of a player whose expected stats and Sabermetrics make him appear to be a far greater hitter than he actually is (as of early 2024). It’s been 3 years now of waiting for his return to HOF hitting status and he’s been steadily treading along to “slightly above average” level throughout that entire time after 2021. I’m not gonna pretend like I know why he’s been underachieving (even the Jays don’t know why) but the difference between his expected stats and actual stats are insane!!! 😅
his expected stats show that he’s unlucky but he’s consistently unlucky cause his swing path, speed, etc is pretty bad. If vladdy could literally just get his bat under the ball he’d be insane (as seen in 2021)
it happened
Great video man, I'd love to see the other offensive ones and the pitcher savant breakdowns. Already knew a decent amount about Savant, but it's cool to see exactly what goes into each statistic.
A Brand New Ball Game, Your videos always brighten my day, so I subscribed!
Thank you for the kind words, it’s always much appreciated!
Wow. Just what I was searching for. Thank you so much for this informative video.
You convinced me, ima expected stats guy now. Really solid work, per your usual.
Now here's a guy who likes Mario Kart 64, and that's why I'm here.
64 and 8 Deluxe contend for my #1 Mario Kart spot
Great video/comparison. It's bizarre that they're both leadoff hitters too; it shows the difference in lineup philosophy
Thank you! And good catch, I didn’t even think about it for whatever reason.
Awesome video. Excited to see your channel grow!
Thank you and I appreciate that!
I’m definitely an OPS/OPS+ enjoyer, but when you think about it, OPS being the measuring stick for hitting is very strange
I still use OPS all the time. I’ve always assumed it was made to make slash lines more digestible by looking at just one number and it does that very well. One big problem is it assumes that OBP and SLG are equal in scale, when they’re not. But, stats like wOBA, OPS+, and wRC+ just won’t be highly recognized by fans currently, even if they’re more accurate or easier to understand, and that’s fine.
It is insane that the drop from Soto to schwarber in walks is nearly 50% more than schwarbers, and schwarber is 2nd
I knew people would notice how absolutely ridiculous that is. Soto’s just like that.
Got to love delving into all the obscure baseball stats
I do annual updates of R.B.I. Baseball (NES) and Ken Griffey Baseball (SNES). I use BaseballSavant religiously for things like Sprint Speed when determining how fast a runner is and Fastball Velocity for pitchers' speed.
Great video. I subbed because of it 💯
15:43, slugging isnt out of a 1.000 scale, its out of a 4.000 scale
That’s completely my mistake. I did the OBP text first, then copied for SLG and forgot to change it. Thanks for catching that.
Just normalize it to a 1.0 scale by dividing by 4.
@@Eidenhoek yeah but then ops is ruined and only 2 people have ever had a slugging over .200
@@smoceany9478 It's not ruined; the range of values just change.
@@Eidenhoek for slugging yeah, but for ops it is, the difference between a .400 slugging and a .600 slugging is not the same as the difference between a .350 obp and a .400 obp
Really cool video concept! I’m not a big fan of Luis Arraez and his game but I can see the value he can bring to a team.
Great video!
This guy deserves way more exposure than he has!!!
Someone needed to say this. Savant is awesome but no one uses it right
This is a great informative video
He's top in sweet spot and bottom in barrels.
2-3 mph in exit velo changes his whole page.
That ball boy at the end of the video almost grabbing the ball when the play is live gave me anxiety
I was about to use a baseball savant page to make an intentional bad faith argument but your intro gave me pause
Another person saved by my wisdom, you are welcome.
@@ABrandNewBallGame I did it but I used fan graphs plate discipline stats instead
@@capraagricola *snorts really hard and chokes as he forgets how to breathe*
This video is great, will you make one for pitchers too?
I’m definitely open to doing it. But, it likely won’t be my next one as I’m working on a different topic at the moment. I could see myself doing it sometime during this season for sure though!
That Luis Arraez savant screenshot is good tho
I’m definitely not saying it isn’t good, it’s just part of the bit I was doing. That part and actually this whole video was inspired by a tweet I saw last summer of someone replying to someone else with Luis Arraez’s Savant page, insinuating it was bad.
Great video
I’m sorry when I saw where Shwarber was at walks I was impressed and then there juan Soto at 200 plus more than any one else in the league
Does xBA take into account the angle it’s hit at between first and third? That feels like it would be important. Also a pleasant surprise hearing tunic music at the end.
No they do not, which is definitely something that’s significant. It’s only the launch angle and exit velocity. So, a ball hit to the third baseman and a ball hit up the middle would be treated the same. Also, you’re the first person that’s recognized the Tunic music, I use it at the end of every video!
That’s actually one of the problems people have with the savant expected stats, they don’t take into account if the ball was pulled or not. Basically, pulled fly balls can often outperform the expected results, which is why a guy like Isaac Paredes gets underrated by baseball savant. Paredes pulls a lot of fly balls without necessarily hitting them super hard, so the expected stats predicts he flies out a lot, but in reality he’s pulling the ball enough to hit it out for home runs. In the inverse, spray ball hitters get overrated by predictive stats, due to how often they’ll hit a ball hard to center which will result in a fly out, despite the expected stats predicting otherwise. It’s why last year savant actually expected Acuña to have an even better year than he did, because of the fact he wasn’t pulling the ball as much.
Ooooh that melee music
Can you tell us how to look for guys in good matchups that possible to hit homerun using this site?
I thought this was a great video and I'm looking forward to seeing more videos from you.
A big problem with the Baseball Reference pages is that it robs the context of the player, thier skills, and what they actually provide to a team. It almost encourages baseball fans to have a disconnect to the game in favor of spreadsheets. I think that is one of the biggest sins of people who use baseball reference incorrectly.
I think you did a good job at bridging the gap between these stats and what they mean on the plate. You show what Arraez brings to the table and why he is valuable. You dont want Arraez to be Schwarber and vice vera because they both have different skillsets that gravitate towards a certain kind of philosophy regarding hitting.
One thing I will fight about is your segment on pushback on the 'X' stats. There isnt a pushback on the 'X' stats because analytics = bad. There is a pushback because they ask you to iqnore the real life game in favor of a theoretical number that never happened that is powered by an excel formula. It is trying to predict the future, by ironically using a number that didnt happen that came from formula that is flawed in principle. The information going in may be good, but if the formula is flawed in its concept, then is there value in it's answer? Since you think the 'X' stats are valuable, i think it would be interesting to hear an argument of thier legitimacy sometime in the future.
Anyways, subbed
I think that’s completely valid. My appreciation of them is just added information. In a similar way that OPS was made so people could easily digest slash lines, to me, these were made to more easily digest Hard-Hit%, Barrels, Sweet-Spots and so on. So, although I think you get a lot more out of looking at the things that make xStats what they are, sometimes I just like to get a quickly digestible version of all those things combined. But, context is important and it’s why I say they can’t predict the future and they aren’t proof that a player is being robbed of performance. Results are still results at the end of the day and if someone underperforms xStats for three straight years, they probably will just keep underperforming barring a big change.
THANK YOU SO MUCH
Why does sweet spot% remind me of how many 'awesome' or 'greats' you get in mario superstar baseball?
Mario 3d world was a welcome throwback
fw the content
Mom can I watch a foolish baseball video
We already have those at home
Foolish baseball at home:
Not hating though. This video was actually really good lol
Don't worry, I honestly take that as a compliment more than anything.
Every RPG has dump stats. Yes, even baseball.
great video
@21:30 the ball girl tries to snag a fair ball😭😭
I was hoping someone was gonna catch that cause I was laughing when I saw it. You can’t see it in this video, but that clip continues and they were clearly FREAKING out and worried if they got in trouble for almost messing up that play.
garrett richards had the highest spin rates year after year and where is he now
before watching the video, to anyone reading, Batter Run Value is the most important stat there imo, though who cares about my opinion
yeah who cares
My life was ruined by blue circles
Deadball era= best ball era
I rank all players solely by sweet spot %age
I don't personally like xba because i've always saw Jose Altuve with a bad xba compared to his actual average pretty much for every year of his career.
Altuve’s one of the biggest examples of a player that consistently over performs what the expected stats think he should be doing. At this point, his “over performance” has become so consistent over his career, you can only assume at this point it is some sort of flaw in the stat.
@@ABrandNewBallGameyeah it's not a perfect stat, that'd be impossible, it must be used with context, most of the time it's close enough to accurate to be considered
Completely agree and context with stats like these is something I try to make sure is super clear in the video.
@@ABrandNewBallGame "hit it where they ain't" can single handedly be used to argue against expected stats
@@butteredjohn Well, until you look at that aspect with whatever statistic you're using...
i'm assuming the screenshot is luis arraez?
Anyone using baseball savant to discredit arraez is a moron. All I see is the best contact hitter in baseball by a mile when I look at his statcast numbers
Baseball savant to me is like participation trophies, making bad players feeling better about themselves by calculating useless stuff like swing rate and Hard Hit balls
the thing is, it’s up to you whether or not you care about stuff like sweet spot% and such. imo, hard hit rate actually is important, but that’s me
lol. i mean its about trying to see if a player will be good/bad tomorrow rather than looking back