Basic gist: It's growing exponentially. But are you? I'm still hopeful for those who are urgent in all things to maximize their potential, exponentially!
@@ollyfoxcam Agreed. I watched the whole interview and half the interview was useless. Don't get me wrong, I like Joe, but he didn't interview him, he spoke at him. Ray has a high level of accuracy in his predictions and is very intelligent person.
Ray Kurzweil and his books are pretty legendary. He was the person who popularized the concept of the singularity to the mass public with his chilling explicit descriptions of what future technological milestones would look like and when they would occur which he wrote as if they were facts. He then single handedly defended his predictions throughout his life against the entire world community of critics and pessimists coming from all areas of science and the media. He is still standing today.
Ray liberally interprets obvious failures as successes. Anyone can throw out general claims and defend them, that isn't special. For example, he claimed in the '90s or early 2000s that by 2009 most kids would learn how to read from computers before going to school. He claimed that was an accurate prediction, despite it not even being in the same ballpark as true today. He claimed it was accurate based on a single paper that stated as much as 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Note that: 1) 9% is not most 2) The paper did not say how they learned 3. There was no discussion on what trend may or may not exist Anyone claiming that was a successful prediction deserves truckloads of salt for other things they claim. When you dispense with his vague, obvious, or restated what someone else said or is doing "predictions" he has as abysmal of a record as any. And by obvious, I mean to experts. For example he "predicted" the fall of the USSR. However, that was a done deal for experts years before he said it - it was considered obvious and inevitable by the experts. Just because the common folk lacks the knowledge doesn't mean he is special for 'predicting' what the experts have already asserted is inevitable. Claiming in the 90s that computers will have cameras and replace the use of phones is another one. That was done on mainstream broadcast television in the 60s and predicted even back then. How about nanotech eliminating "most diseases" by the 2020s? So far not a single one has been. You're not going to exponentialize your way to that one in the next 5 years. I wouldn't call him a hack, though IMO "futurist" is largely a synonym for it. But he isn't actually good at objective, novel predictions on technology advancement, let alone social ones.
Truth. Taking his worldview will help you skate to where the puck will be. That he looks to be slowing down, or dresses funny, does not take away from his core insight that expands Moore’s Law backwards in time to an age before computers.
@IAmTheRealBill futurists tend to optimistically downplay the impact of artificially created scarcity enforced by trillions of dollars spent on propaganda.
@talkdatalk1002 Your response is based off the same phenomenon when a cat attacks itself in the mirror. The cat thinks the reflection is real, but it just mirrors what the cat does. This is CURRENT AI! It is a reflection of us, very little real understanding. A laptop itself isn't "smart" btw...
Even funnier: he "predicted" in the 90s that by 2009 digital documents will have fully replaced paper documents. He considers that prediction a success, despite still using paper documents in 2023/2024.
@@clintonleonard5187 yet he looked at Joe like he has 3 heads when he asked him if they could pull up the information on the paper printout that he was handing across the table.
LOL Same here - At 8:09 I was like “I don’t know if I find this credible” and went to the comments. Glad to see most everyone else’s bullshit meters went off as well
In ten years time UA-cam’s reminders will have grown exponentially, meaning you won’t be able to find the recommendation for this video because there will be too many to sort through.
in ten years i’ll be exploring andromeda galaxy because agi in 5 years, asi in 6 years, and in 10 years we’ll have made 10 million years of technological progress @@JarrodDSchneider
I read his books, "The Age of Intelligent Machines" and "The Age of Spiritual Machines," around 2003. He predicted everything that's going on with AI so precisely. Kurzweil is the best.
Human level intelligence - not exactly the same as being human. A computer wouldn't waste time trying to release dopamine. It doesn't produce dopamine.
Sure seems that way, but he's smiling like the cat who ate the canary... He's been working with computer intelligence before most of us were allowed off the porch. Also, he knows 3.5 million sheeple are watching. "How do I give them enough to be terrified, but not so terrified that they actually get off the couch and do something about this grape-session they are about to receive"?
Then again. The technology could exist, it just might not be distributed to the serfs. Malthusians might want more time to whittle down the population first.
Yes, he really has an incredible career and life-of-work and he has been spot on on predictions as well. He is old, and having a tired day here, but judging from the comments here I feel people have no idea who he is. If they knew who he is, the comments wouldnt be like this. Sorry for Ray!
Yes, unfortunately most of Joe Rogan's audience are m0r0ns... Kurzweil is getting up there in years. He was a lot sharper at explaining this stuff 10 or 20 years ago. He's been accurately predicting the growth of computing power for like 50 years now.
What is freaky about AI intelligence… The exponential growth. Start may seem slow, but learning rate isn't linear. Look back one year, two years, three years… Now make predictions for next year or two. It's going to be a wild ride.
Precisely....and anyone who has had a kid has observed this in humans....they sometimes take a LONG time for their first word...and then 2 months later they are talking... Same with reading...I have a cousin who was slow to read....was concerning...but then she reached a threshold and just suddenly was reading everything like an adult
@@taicunmusicSomebody makes a observation that is obvious to the majority of us because the guest is speaking extremely slowly. And meandering also I might ad, as if he’s hoping what he saying will make logical senve as he goes along. So in his and your own ideological defence, I am assuming ! you decide to insult that comment or, And many others who are agreeing, by saying they have some sort of attention deficit. So just what “of person are you”!😂
Guys, I'm an old fart and therefore know this guys story. He is hands down the most famous futurist, and for being right.... Bill gates called him the best predicter of future tech he knew. I do not personally have an opinion about this current conversation. I also, can't tell if he is speaking broadly or not. Or if he is speaking functionally possible vs actually implemented. What I want to say is, his background is incredible. He invented some very impressive tech back in the day before becoming famous as a futurist. If you are into this kind of information, it is worth your time to do a deep dive on Ray Kurzweil. I will say, his age is showing and that is painful to see. I've been with tech every step of the way. These last couple yrs have been the most dramatic, and that makes sense in the context of exponential growth. Its the later steps that see the biggest jumps. I do not rule out what he is saying in terms of technically possible, but sadly, I do not see humans functionally implementing it that quickly.
I know Ray, read "the singularity is near" book like 15 years ago, almost 100% of his predictions fell flat on their face. Then he wrote another book about how right he was and just moved the goal posts for all his predictions. Bill Gates praised him? you mean the college drop-out who buys out governing bodies and then makes his money off forced medical treatments? cool story
The 2 important questions about AI that people never ask: 1. Will it appear on jre as a guest? 2. Will authorities find a dismembered body in its house afterwards?
Exactly my friend! A bunch of idiot savant bashing a true gentle Genius, Ray easily is still in the top 20 minds on the Planet right now. How disrespectful Joe has become.e, Joe is straight up a Dunce, he thinks his talking points are intelligence....what a dink.......what this chat shows specifically is that America is in great trouble when the vast majority actually think Joe is more intelligent and on point than Kurzweil.....I mean did they forget about Ramona? Tons of companies usurped Ray's work over the years, he alone basically invented AI with that project alone.
I read two of his books, dude is a self aggrandizing hack who moves the goalposts continually to make his predictions 'correct' and then has the gall to brag about it, an intellectual for nit-wits.
right! crazy. "he developed the Kurzweil Reading Machine-the first machine that could read printed and typed documents aloud." and that's just one thing.
Peter is right on mostly everything. Just cuz your one of the people who buys into the "the dollar is dying, buy gold!" Scam. Don't be mad that your a sheep
What are some things Peter has been wrong in? Genuinely interested as I have watched some of his vids but I’m not a fanboy or anything. I just like watching people hike and talk 🤣
“We don’t need nuclear, we have sun and wind and 10 years.” “I’m sorry sir, the only truth here is that you yourself have less than 10 years of life.” “No, I have another 100 years. It’s exponential growth.”
@@replynotificationsdisabledNo... the one in Miami has been leaking.. my first video is in the closest public park lake to it.. i know more sorry, its not safe. Undeniable science.
@@ryantogo8359 As an electrical engineer who has worked in and done research in that field, I must say you are wrong. But it’s pretty deeply technical and outside the understanding of 95% of people. Efficiencies started at about 6% when I started in this field and we’ve come a long way however.
@@IAmTheRealBillhe also predicted in 90 that AI will beat the world chess player by 98, it happened in 97.. not all his predictions are correct, but most are. AGI hasn't happened yet, but he made the prediction of by 29 it will occur, decades ago and most literally thought he was insane. Now after years they all agree with his timeline.
@@zrblank something you could look up on the Internet. it is essentially a quasi-religious belief that science and the scientific method are the only way to render truth about reality. That said, the OP seems to be misunderstanding it.
Scientist: we have no idea where consciousness comes from. Computer bros: yea bro it will be able to be self aware. Have you guys ever seen the graph where the line is forever about to touch the other line but never crosses or touches it? Thats us.
@dominick253 i mean that kind of has been his point. Just because he acknowledges the advancement of tech, it doesn't mean he loves it or wants to constantly engage with it. Quite the opposite, really.
Some humans will merge with AI. They are already being raised by parents with a secret. The secret is some children have been genetically enhanced. They have been doing it for years.
Rays entire philosophy stems from a deep rooted fear of death. All of his estimations have always been for it to happen right before he reaches the life expectancy. The singularity has a major issue in that it does not account for diminishing returns, nor does it account for sentient AI just not willing to be enslaved.
If you read his book he answers all of that. Diminishing returns do not exist with technology because technology innovations compound between each other. We use old technology to build better technology and we then use better technology to build even more amazing things. This is what leads to exponential growth.
@@DantesHQThats most people's problem in the comments, they don't read his book or anything about him, they go off this podcast appearance and make assumptions.
he's conflating the growth in computational power with "AI" (chatbot) programs. LLM's will plateau and we'll need a paradigm shift to make big strides; it is not linear, it's stop-go for "AI"
Nope you are just straight up wrong. As we scale deep learning more and more emergent properties seem to emerge out of the systems. Claude 3 for example just passed the needle in the haystack and display high levels of situational awareness. This all happened because we optimized and scaled. There could be a few things that we are missing, but so far it seems like we wont be needing those things.
@@DantesHQ No, they do plateau. You're talking about the training data / model which isn't really what they're talking about. Think about the the number of layers in a network. For example, Resnet-50 vs Resnet-101 vs ResNet-152. The improvement among adding the layers is not exponential to the number of extra layers, and it will plateau eventually (i.e., error % is typically not much different from Resnet-101 vs Resnet-152 compared to the difference between Resent-50 and Resent-101 which is larger). Computational power helps a lot, but that's not all it is. They need to design better architectures.
@@ghost9-9ghost worse, if he is still on it, he was on a "less than 10% dietary fat" diet he allegedly came up with. That is about a third of what the few scientific papers to address neuroprotective intake uses.
@IAmTheRealBill I very much agree....low fat diets are a terrible idea....despite that both keto and carnivore diets are based on pseudo science and the lies of zealots, one of the few things they have as benefit are fat content.....and putting niche studies aside, fat is simply required....structurally and functionally .. for human biology Yeah it's sad...I don't know much about kurzweil....but.....whatever he may have been in the past is gone...
He’s not wrong. He’s off by about 5 years but at the current pace - solar energy production seems to be doubling every 3.5 years. If it continues at this rate of growth then solar will replace all other forms of energy in 15 years. He’s probably overly optimistic on the rate of adoption but he’s correct about the exponential growth component. Personally I am already amazed when driving through some NJ suburbs and seeing entire neighborhoods with solar panel roofs. It’s happening a lot faster than people think or expect.
I couldn't help but chuckle when the guy talking about how rapidly technology is advancing pulled out a graph on paper then didn't answer when Joe asked if the graph was available online. No matter how we keep up with tech it seems there will always be some old tech we'll hold onto.
He's right.. most AI experts have been readjusting their estimates of AGI to ever-earlier dates over the decades. Kurzweil has stuck to 2029 all this time. He's also gotten 80+ % of hist past predictions right.
@@FailBucketFilms he won't. You see that 86% is Ray's own assessment, which includes obvious failures such as "most children will learn to read via computer before school by 2009" - which clearly is a strike out. He largely makes general assertions that are not novel, vague, and usually obvious to the experts. For example he claimed in the 90s that computers would eventually replace phones for communication - something that was predicted in the 60s. Ray basically follows the school of thought that says "make a shit-ton of predictions, people will forget the failures and marvel at the few successes" - which this comment section is demonstrating to be true.
Name one AI expert that has actually contributed to the field that gave an AGI estimate you are referring to. Also, he can't be right even if he is right; he doesn't have enough understanding of the field to make reasonable claims. As shown in the interview.
Aptera is already developing a solar charging car. Solar panels on the roof, hood, dash, and back add up to 40 miles per day depending on where you live, time of year, weather, etc.
@@TomRopez The 86% figure thrown around about him is one he came up with. But it includes obviously failed predictions as accurate. For example he claimed that by 2009 most kids (presuming in the western countries, or even just in America) would learn to read at home before school using computers. Clearly that didn't happen. But in his self-analysis of his "own" predictions he called it accurate because a single paper claimed that 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Nothing in the paper attributed it to computers at home, and 9% is much closer to 0% than it is 51%. He basically makes vague assertions that experts in the field are already doing, then claims credit when something can remotely be interpreted as him predicting it. Another example he claims is that he predicted the fall of the USSR. but experts had done that years before.
Poor man! For decades, he has been taking dozens of pills, medicines and undergoing detailed health examinations every year (or month), in the hope of delaying aging and avoiding his death until the arrival of the long-awaited singularity, when he can then be immortal. But there he is, showing clear signs of aging and fragility like anyone at 78 years old. About 25 years ago, when he was in his fifties, it was easier to imagine that the great and expected future would arrive in all its glory and capabilities around 2030, but here we are, very, very far from solving the problems. of humanity. The fact is that the years pass quickly and the once promising future, as well as old age, soon arrives, with no sure indications that we will be able to live well beyond the expected 80 years of life. But despite Ray's techno-messianic hope, he is still a visionary who is helping to shape the future of humanity. Realistically long live for him, and may he be at peace in his final days! Cheers from Brazil!
2:22 "This straight line represents exponential growth" - shows linear growth graph. 5:35 "It does the same every year, it's an exponential curve". This guy doesn't know what exponential means.
We still do not have light processing at the level we need for true AI. Not just novel machine learning tasks we call AI. Processing still needs to be much better. 2029 is still too early for that. I would be surprised if true light processing was halfway there by 2029.
And the use of energy is going up a lot year by year now due to crypto mining and A.I. training as the training of them uses a lot of energy and is only going up.
I've been following Ray Kurzweil for decades. Ray Kurzweil is a futurist so many of his future predictions have come to fruition. AI, AGI, ASI and Solar Powered Cars is nearly there.
Futurist: brings printout of graph that is in book. Can’t say how to locate it online. Jamie: I have it right here. I predicted your prediction. There can only be one. I am the futurist now.
Coincidence or not one of the talking AI robots I think it was Sophie said by the year 2029 they would achieve human intelligence and then laughed about taking us over. It was chilling.
@dertythegrower maybe that's the sneaky hint.....maybe he knows that the future is a stone age dystopia....with some flying A.I. drones circling the planet controlling the ditty slaves
@@jasminek5557 I wonder how he even studies the future. You can't do it accurately unless you're very knowledgable in the field to beginwith to have an idea of the current state of things and how far it needs to go to reach that point. Clearly he's not very knowledgeable in the field, so did he really just look at few charts and say 'eh, exponential growth so x yrs'?
Once his date of 2028 gets closer to his theory then he will push it out a few more years down the road. Watching him talk is like watching the minute hand slowly going by. Joe did a great job putting up with his slow paced speaking.
So bacterial growth in a substrate, say in a batch of inoculated beer substrate is exponential for a while. At some point, the alcohol concentration is too high, or the space is too limited, or there just isn't enough sugar for the growth to continue and it slows and stops. This is the first thing I am thinking of when I think of exponential growth. I wonder why he seems to think that it will go on indefinitely, for the solar panel example for instance ...
Joe: Asks a question
This guy: "Exponential growth"
😂
I was thinking this through the entire clip lol
J:So Elon said you can't do that
Guest: Well he's not taking into account exponential growth
"Oh my! You're sooooo big for me Mr Kurzweil teehee!"
Ray Kurzweil: *"Exponential growth"*
Kurzweil is not a "this guy", chief.
Jamie pulls that up faster than he hands over a piece of paper...
Oh he Googles real good, guys. Pathetic. Kurzweil is a polymath.
@@xaviergough9359It’s always an Xavier lmao. Jamie does his job well, allow him.
hes trained well
Jamie is an AGI all this time we didn’t know.
Someone please tell him about the Interweb
I like how the futurist pulls out a printed out graph
Lmao I was thinking the same thing. Futurist didn’t even laminate the documents
Right lol. A primitive sheet of paper. You would expect a futurist to be on the cutting edge of technology.
@@thanos879 Years ago I predicted that futurists would still use paper documents.
Yeah, he should have projected it onto Joe's face with a laser or something
A futurist who writes books is pretty funny
My skepticism is rising exponentially
Hell yeah. This was painful but I didn’t want to miss it.
So you didn't understand the seriousness of the implications? And the proof that it's happening with AI right now?
hahahahah 10000000%
Lmao...mine too
Along with your fear.
Basic gist: It's growing exponentially.
But are you? I'm still hopeful for those who are urgent in all things to maximize their potential, exponentially!
Ill remind you this is the same guy who said he hates humans and hopes robots reign Supreme. Cant blame him tbh
"I wasn't aware" - Joe Rogan calling bullshit
You think Rogan has the ability to call bullshit on Ray Kurzweil? You obviously don’t know who Ray is…
@@ollyfoxcam Agreed. I watched the whole interview and half the interview was useless. Don't get me wrong, I like Joe, but he didn't interview him, he spoke at him. Ray has a high level of accuracy in his predictions and is very intelligent person.
“All renewable in 10 years? 🤔🤔🤔”
You have more faith In a comedian?! 😂.. As Joe says to all his followers
@@ollyfoxcamyeah he's the dumbest genius I've ever seen
I think Joe is finding this hard to follow, because all he's thinking about is how sweet those suspenders would be with his little rascals hat.
That made me laugh thanks😂
Facts
Almost spit my coffe out 😂
Remember when Bill called his kangol hat a lil rascal hat.
He's never worn it after that ...😂
@@davidbelen7199I was about to say the same thing 😂
Ray Kurzweil and his books are pretty legendary. He was the person who popularized the concept of the singularity to the mass public with his chilling explicit descriptions of what future technological milestones would look like and when they would occur which he wrote as if they were facts. He then single handedly defended his predictions throughout his life against the entire world community of critics and pessimists coming from all areas of science and the media. He is still standing today.
Ray liberally interprets obvious failures as successes. Anyone can throw out general claims and defend them, that isn't special. For example, he claimed in the '90s or early 2000s that by 2009 most kids would learn how to read from computers before going to school. He claimed that was an accurate prediction, despite it not even being in the same ballpark as true today.
He claimed it was accurate based on a single paper that stated as much as 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Note that:
1) 9% is not most
2) The paper did not say how they learned
3. There was no discussion on what trend may or may not exist
Anyone claiming that was a successful prediction deserves truckloads of salt for other things they claim. When you dispense with his vague, obvious, or restated what someone else said or is doing "predictions" he has as abysmal of a record as any.
And by obvious, I mean to experts. For example he "predicted" the fall of the USSR. However, that was a done deal for experts years before he said it - it was considered obvious and inevitable by the experts. Just because the common folk lacks the knowledge doesn't mean he is special for 'predicting' what the experts have already asserted is inevitable. Claiming in the 90s that computers will have cameras and replace the use of phones is another one. That was done on mainstream broadcast television in the 60s and predicted even back then.
How about nanotech eliminating "most diseases" by the 2020s? So far not a single one has been. You're not going to exponentialize your way to that one in the next 5 years.
I wouldn't call him a hack, though IMO "futurist" is largely a synonym for it. But he isn't actually good at objective, novel predictions on technology advancement, let alone social ones.
Truth. Taking his worldview will help you skate to where the puck will be. That he looks to be slowing down, or dresses funny, does not take away from his core insight that expands Moore’s Law backwards in time to an age before computers.
And then people worked to bring about his predictions. Funny how it works that way.
Well said @IAmTheRealBill!
Although I'd just go all the way and simply call him a hack.
@IAmTheRealBill futurists tend to optimistically downplay the impact of artificially created scarcity enforced by trillions of dollars spent on propaganda.
Bruh I haven't even reached human level intelligence yet. 2029 a laptop is smarter than me. 😭
If your say "bruh" your opinion at that point DOESN'T MATTER LOL
😂😂😂
the laptop is far smarter than you now as well as ur phone
No lol... @@talkdatalk1002
@talkdatalk1002 Your response is based off the same phenomenon when a cat attacks itself in the mirror. The cat thinks the reflection is real, but it just mirrors what the cat does. This is CURRENT AI! It is a reflection of us, very little real understanding. A laptop itself isn't "smart" btw...
Joe: Can we pull it up online?
Futurist: What’s online?
Even funnier: he "predicted" in the 90s that by 2009 digital documents will have fully replaced paper documents. He considers that prediction a success, despite still using paper documents in 2023/2024.
That's hilarious@@IAmTheRealBill
This futurist predicted the internet before "online" existed. Literally.
@@clintonleonard5187 yet he looked at Joe like he has 3 heads when he asked him if they could pull up the information on the paper printout that he was handing across the table.
@@Antwhitehead most likely because he was trying to advertise his book and posting information like that would undermine it.
I had to pause it at 8:00 and scroll to the comments to make sure everyone called bullsht after hearing that 😂
Same!!!
LOL Same here - At 8:09 I was like “I don’t know if I find this credible” and went to the comments. Glad to see most everyone else’s bullshit meters went off as well
😂 literally just did this
😂 8 minutes seems to be the bull shit handling standard
I went there as soon as he started talking about solar power around 6:00. Glad to see Joe's listeners are a lot smarter than this quack.
Remind me in ten years UA-cam.
In ten years time UA-cam’s reminders will have grown exponentially, meaning you won’t be able to find the recommendation for this video because there will be too many to sort through.
in ten years i’ll be exploring andromeda galaxy because agi in 5 years, asi in 6 years, and in 10 years we’ll have made 10 million years of technological progress @@JarrodDSchneider
Come back to this video in 10 years. Won't be long. Will be interesting to reflect on this mans position on things.
Reminding you about it at 18 hrs.
See u next year
This was an exponential waste of time..
You won't think that in 10 years
@@chazmandingo5396 the only thing that exponentially wasted here is your comment.
I can’t say for sure but I believe this was sarcasm, I’ll give it 10 years to be certain though
Best comment here.
Dude was so full of himself
Disagree. We get to watch Rogan lose faith in his former hero, in real time!
This was painful. I did make a calendar reminder for 01/012029 with a link to this video. I’m going to test my current scecptisim and BS meter
You wont have to wait for 2029, AGI will be here in 2-3 years.
😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
31/12/2029
@@DantesHQno it won’t
let's just hope the internet still exists by then...........
I read his books, "The Age of Intelligent Machines" and "The Age of Spiritual Machines," around 2003. He predicted everything that's going on with AI so precisely. Kurzweil is the best.
He has the same problem AI has with not being able to say I don’t know
It’s like the cat in the box, until he knows he simultaneously knows and doesn’t know so exponential growth!
😂😂😂😂
Cos it will be exponential...
Once it has human level intelligence, it will just spend all its time on social media, trolling people and reading celebrity gossip.
And playing video games
simulates itself on drugs and alcohol
Human level intelligence - not exactly the same as being human. A computer wouldn't waste time trying to release dopamine. It doesn't produce dopamine.
@jedi4049 And if humans want it dead we can just spill water on it. Tzz tzzssss😂😂😂
Also coming up with daydreams that have no relevance whatsoever
I'm still waiting for the hoover boards from back to the future.
Ray is still working on his flux capacitor made from kitchen parts
Do you mean hover? Or like a Hoover vacuum you can ride?
Antigravity tech is still strictly area 51
Ray's kid: I don't want 65 hamburgers
Ray: you're not thinking exponentially
😂😂😂😂😂😊
hello everyone in 2029 i hope i’m doing great in life rn
I love that he brought a printed graph. Old school!
Old-school futurist
Bless him!
Ray’s own computational power seems to be sputtering😂
Ray.I
Exponentially
Sure seems that way, but he's smiling like the cat who ate the canary... He's been working with computer intelligence before most of us were allowed off the porch. Also, he knows 3.5 million sheeple are watching. "How do I give them enough to be terrified, but not so terrified that they actually get off the couch and do something about this grape-session they are about to receive"?
idk about that, he’s clearly a ventriloquist dummy
Facts
His predictions are partly based on the fact that he’s 77 years old so it needs to happen before he dies lol
5 years from now.... that is not easy for someone that is sick or too old
Kurtzweil is actually a cook who believes that eventually everyone is going to live forever
Or he figures he will be dead soon so why bother changing his mind now. F it. Kind of like Keynesian economics.
@@ocallesp he's been saying this for 30 years
Then again. The technology could exist, it just might not be distributed to the serfs. Malthusians might want more time to whittle down the population first.
Ray Kurzweil is a legend. Most of you guys are the crazy ones...
Yes, he really has an incredible career and life-of-work and he has been spot on on predictions as well. He is old, and having a tired day here, but judging from the comments here I feel people have no idea who he is. If they knew who he is, the comments wouldnt be like this. Sorry for Ray!
Yes, unfortunately most of Joe Rogan's audience are m0r0ns... Kurzweil is getting up there in years. He was a lot sharper at explaining this stuff 10 or 20 years ago. He's been accurately predicting the growth of computing power for like 50 years now.
Yes
Well yeah, 90% of the comments on any youtube page are full of stupidity.
Ray is bat shit crazy. He wants to revive his dead father with AI. These futurists have some serious personal issues...
Thank you very much for uploading these digestible clips.
What is freaky about AI intelligence… The exponential growth. Start may seem slow, but learning rate isn't linear. Look back one year, two years, three years… Now make predictions for next year or two. It's going to be a wild ride.
Precisely....and anyone who has had a kid has observed this in humans....they sometimes take a LONG time for their first word...and then 2 months later they are talking...
Same with reading...I have a cousin who was slow to read....was concerning...but then she reached a threshold and just suddenly was reading everything like an adult
The learning rate is a constant mate. It is linear by definition.
Dynamic learning rates aren't really mainstream yet.
Or do you mean loss?
Bearable at 1.3 speed.
Fixed it
He sounds so normal at that speed it seems like this is a slowed down joke haha
You’re the kind of person that needs a subway surfers video put on the side, bc of your short attention span 😂😂😂😂
@@taicunmusicSomebody makes a observation that is obvious to the majority of us because the guest is speaking extremely slowly. And meandering also I might ad, as if he’s hoping what he saying will make logical senve as he goes along. So in his and your own ideological defence, I am assuming ! you decide to insult that comment or, And many others who are agreeing, by saying they have some sort of attention deficit. So just what “of person are you”!😂
@@sonnylambert4893what on earth are you rambling about
Guys, I'm an old fart and therefore know this guys story. He is hands down the most famous futurist, and for being right.... Bill gates called him the best predicter of future tech he knew. I do not personally have an opinion about this current conversation. I also, can't tell if he is speaking broadly or not. Or if he is speaking functionally possible vs actually implemented. What I want to say is, his background is incredible. He invented some very impressive tech back in the day before becoming famous as a futurist. If you are into this kind of information, it is worth your time to do a deep dive on Ray Kurzweil. I will say, his age is showing and that is painful to see. I've been with tech every step of the way. These last couple yrs have been the most dramatic, and that makes sense in the context of exponential growth. Its the later steps that see the biggest jumps. I do not rule out what he is saying in terms of technically possible, but sadly, I do not see humans functionally implementing it that quickly.
💯 this chat full of idiot Joe worshipers, Ray's mind still is in the top 20 of everyone on the Planet, he literally invented AI with "Ramona"
I hear you. This comment section is sad and says a lot about where Rogan's audience is these days... painfully dumb.
Good analysis, but Ray has clearly lost touch with feasibility. Just his argument about the grid was so far off, it was exponential
Yep. One of the most prolific inventors ever. People don't really know who this dude is.
I know Ray, read "the singularity is near" book like 15 years ago, almost 100% of his predictions fell flat on their face. Then he wrote another book about how right he was and just moved the goal posts for all his predictions. Bill Gates praised him? you mean the college drop-out who buys out governing bodies and then makes his money off forced medical treatments? cool story
This dude couldn’t look any less like the image of a futurist I had in my head. He looks more like an accordion player.
The 2 important questions about AI that people never ask:
1. Will it appear on jre as a guest?
2. Will authorities find a dismembered body in its house afterwards?
If an AI bought a house before us, I'd be pissed. Sell it to humans dammit.
I get the interview is a little sleepy but do people here really not know who Kurzweil is?
Exactly my friend! A bunch of idiot savant bashing a true gentle Genius, Ray easily is still in the top 20 minds on the Planet right now. How disrespectful Joe has become.e, Joe is straight up a Dunce, he thinks his talking points are intelligence....what a dink.......what this chat shows specifically is that America is in great trouble when the vast majority actually think Joe is more intelligent and on point than Kurzweil.....I mean did they forget about Ramona? Tons of companies usurped Ray's work over the years, he alone basically invented AI with that project alone.
I read two of his books, dude is a self aggrandizing hack who moves the goalposts continually to make his predictions 'correct' and then has the gall to brag about it, an intellectual for nit-wits.
right! crazy. "he developed the Kurzweil Reading Machine-the first machine that could read printed and typed documents aloud." and that's just one thing.
No. No, they don't.
Judging from this comment section, man, I think most have absolutely no idea who he is and how legendary of a career he has had.
Every answer “exponentially” 😂😂😂😂
This guy is the Peter Zeihan of technology :D
I think zeihans hair is natural tho...
Peter is right on mostly everything. Just cuz your one of the people who buys into the "the dollar is dying, buy gold!" Scam. Don't be mad that your a sheep
😂😂
What are some things Peter has been wrong in? Genuinely interested as I have watched some of his vids but I’m not a fanboy or anything. I just like watching people hike and talk 🤣
Not even close😂 guy's an engineer/scientist, zeihan is just some smooth brain commentator
Great interview Thank you for having Ray Kurzweil on I have followed him for years, he is an extraordinary man.
Man Kurzweil is getting old. Hope he lives to see the Singularity
He plans on living forever. He just said it on Lex Fridmans podcast like a year ago. He thinks he will.
He's been focused on living forever since the 90s. He eats a really strict diet and takes a regimine of supplements.
For a guy in his late 70s, I'd say he's doing pretty well.
“We don’t need nuclear, we have sun and wind and 10 years.”
“I’m sorry sir, the only truth here is that you yourself have less than 10 years of life.”
“No, I have another 100 years. It’s exponential growth.”
Yup, years ago he said this was a race of beating the AI clock before his own demise.
He's actually slightly younger than Sly, hard to believe I know
everything is nuclear
@@replynotificationsdisabledNo... the one in Miami has been leaking.. my first video is in the closest public park lake to it.. i know more sorry, its not safe. Undeniable science.
Not safe.. the miami plant is leaking.. end of convo you lose.
The efficiency of solar panels hits some pretty hard limits based on the materials used to make semiconductors.
Nope you're totally wrong. Because muh exponential growth
@@ryantogo8359 As an electrical engineer who has worked in and done research in that field, I must say you are wrong. But it’s pretty deeply technical and outside the understanding of 95% of people. Efficiencies started at about 6% when I started in this field and we’ve come a long way however.
@@TheNaturalust It's a joke because the guy in the podcast is just saying exponential growth
They been saying we will be all solar in the next 10 years for the last 30 years lol
A futurist who brings paper charts to a podcast… checks out.
who predicted that in 2009 we'd see the end of paper documents as they'd be replaced by digital documents. 😂
@@IAmTheRealBillhe also predicted in 90 that AI will beat the world chess player by 98, it happened in 97.. not all his predictions are correct, but most are. AGI hasn't happened yet, but he made the prediction of by 29 it will occur, decades ago and most literally thought he was insane. Now after years they all agree with his timeline.
Total faith in scientism is exponentially embarrassing with age.
Scientism?? That's... not a thing my dude...
Tf is scientism lol
@@zrblank something you could look up on the Internet. it is essentially a quasi-religious belief that science and the scientific method are the only way to render truth about reality.
That said, the OP seems to be misunderstanding it.
@@Natsirt666 yes it is, my dude. But it isn't what the OP seems to think it is.
same as any ism
This exponential discussion was exponentially exponential.
Scientist: we have no idea where consciousness comes from.
Computer bros: yea bro it will be able to be self aware.
Have you guys ever seen the graph where the line is forever about to touch the other line but never crosses or touches it? Thats us.
“Uhm, exponential, uhm, exponentially, uhhhhhhhhhmmmmm…”*powers down AI self*
I listened to the whole episode. The asymmetry between this man's understanding of tech vs his understanding of humanity is dangerously immense!
The perfect example of "we will invent it in somebody else will figure out how to handle it"
I think he really needs a nap. He was very flabbergasted on the "is this graph online" question. Lol
He looked like he wanted to say damn kids want everything to be online. I have this perfectly printed out piece of paper here. 😅😅😅
@dominick253 when society collapses you will be begging this lunatic for a sketch pad and a pencil...haha
@dominick253 i mean that kind of has been his point. Just because he acknowledges the advancement of tech, it doesn't mean he loves it or wants to constantly engage with it. Quite the opposite, really.
It's in the book.
He was like, damn, who is going to buy my books if you kids want everything online.
People who say AI will never replace humans are in the first stage of grief = *Denial*
The AI needs us more than we need it
Depends what you mean by replace
forget AI, humans are already replaced by automation to a large extent by just a simple code. The replacement is not 100% yet
Duncan's dad seems nice
Expectation: AI gets smarter
Reality: Human gets *dumber*
Some humans will merge with AI. They are already being raised by parents with a secret. The secret is some children have been genetically enhanced. They have been doing it for years.
Finally. The perfect podcast to fall asleep to
Rays entire philosophy stems from a deep rooted fear of death. All of his estimations have always been for it to happen right before he reaches the life expectancy. The singularity has a major issue in that it does not account for diminishing returns, nor does it account for sentient AI just not willing to be enslaved.
If you read his book he answers all of that. Diminishing returns do not exist with technology because technology innovations compound between each other. We use old technology to build better technology and we then use better technology to build even more amazing things. This is what leads to exponential growth.
@@DantesHQah yes the exponential growth, I forgot to take that into account
@@DantesHQThats most people's problem in the comments, they don't read his book or anything about him, they go off this podcast appearance and make assumptions.
@@DantesHQ Diminishing returns exist accross the board even tech just manufacturing chips is a huge problem.
@@DantesHQThe plank length would like to talk to you
he's conflating the growth in computational power with "AI" (chatbot) programs. LLM's will plateau and we'll need a paradigm shift to make big strides; it is not linear, it's stop-go for "AI"
No
cars are literally driving themselves cuh
might be the case, but LLMs can be made better, faster etc all those nice things before we need something 'new'
Nope you are just straight up wrong. As we scale deep learning more and more emergent properties seem to emerge out of the systems. Claude 3 for example just passed the needle in the haystack and display high levels of situational awareness. This all happened because we optimized and scaled. There could be a few things that we are missing, but so far it seems like we wont be needing those things.
@@DantesHQ No, they do plateau. You're talking about the training data / model which isn't really what they're talking about. Think about the the number of layers in a network. For example, Resnet-50 vs Resnet-101 vs ResNet-152.
The improvement among adding the layers is not exponential to the number of extra layers, and it will plateau eventually (i.e., error % is typically not much different from Resnet-101 vs Resnet-152 compared to the difference between Resent-50 and Resent-101 which is larger).
Computational power helps a lot, but that's not all it is. They need to design better architectures.
If this dude doesn't drink coffee he needs to start
He's old and he has spent the last 20 years sewing those suspenders....so hes not in the best shape...haha
@@ghost9-9ghost worse, if he is still on it, he was on a "less than 10% dietary fat" diet he allegedly came up with. That is about a third of what the few scientific papers to address neuroprotective intake uses.
@IAmTheRealBill I very much agree....low fat diets are a terrible idea....despite that both keto and carnivore diets are based on pseudo science and the lies of zealots, one of the few things they have as benefit are fat content.....and putting niche studies aside, fat is simply required....structurally and functionally .. for human biology
Yeah it's sad...I don't know much about kurzweil....but.....whatever he may have been in the past is gone...
He’s not wrong. He’s off by about 5 years but at the current pace - solar energy production seems to be doubling every 3.5 years. If it continues at this rate of growth then solar will replace all other forms of energy in 15 years. He’s probably overly optimistic on the rate of adoption but he’s correct about the exponential growth component.
Personally I am already amazed when driving through some NJ suburbs and seeing entire neighborhoods with solar panel roofs. It’s happening a lot faster than people think or expect.
I'm hallucinating, exponentially
I couldn't help but chuckle when the guy talking about how rapidly technology is advancing pulled out a graph on paper then didn't answer when Joe asked if the graph was available online. No matter how we keep up with tech it seems there will always be some old tech we'll hold onto.
Ray: "I have this info in a book I am currently selling."
Joe: "But can people get it online for free?"
Ray: *hesitates*
comment section: 🤡
It's difficult to transition to newer technology because it requires a lot of relearning which is usually done at a young age.
Joe wantes to call BULL SH#T but he's too nice
He’s so nice.
He matches the energy of who he talks to, generally.
Kurzweil is so soft spoken nowadays Joe just wants to get him talking at all.
Yup, he believes Elon over Ray, as he should. Ray is talking out of his ass right now.
Like he knows shit about technology lmao
It's ALWAYS 10 years away... abundant energy, cure for cancer, end of the world etc etc... 😀👍
Even YS congressional budgeting is based ion "the next ten tears" and we can see how terrible that winds up.
But it's 5 years away.
You didn't even read the title of the video did you?
Yea those things actually helping people are kond skept under a rug, this shito tho? Uncontrollable, we are going to see it in the next (few) year(s)
@@G73Server kond skept shito???
He's right.. most AI experts have been readjusting their estimates of AGI to ever-earlier dates over the decades. Kurzweil has stuck to 2029 all this time. He's also gotten 80+ % of hist past predictions right.
Please provide his predictions (successful or otherwise)
@@FailBucketFilms he won't. You see that 86% is Ray's own assessment, which includes obvious failures such as "most children will learn to read via computer before school by 2009" - which clearly is a strike out. He largely makes general assertions that are not novel, vague, and usually obvious to the experts. For example he claimed in the 90s that computers would eventually replace phones for communication - something that was predicted in the 60s.
Ray basically follows the school of thought that says "make a shit-ton of predictions, people will forget the failures and marvel at the few successes" - which this comment section is demonstrating to be true.
Name one AI expert that has actually contributed to the field that gave an AGI estimate you are referring to.
Also, he can't be right even if he is right; he doesn't have enough understanding of the field to make reasonable claims. As shown in the interview.
Rebuilding the grid will be the most vital step
Distributed power ftw
"The power output of the sun is growing exponentially", I couldn't take this guy seriously after I heard that line
I know Robert Deniro in disguise when I see it!
Deployed Worldwide Through My Deep Learning AI Research Library. Thanks.
Aptera is already developing a solar charging car. Solar panels on the roof, hood, dash, and back add up to 40 miles per day depending on where you live, time of year, weather, etc.
Man bear pig will raise the oceans by 2012
ua-cam.com/video/U5wM5pesggE/v-deo.htmlsi=8RteLm8yhnqw8Gg-
I think that’s the clip you’re looking for😊
When was his last prediction correct?
Apparently he has 88% success rate but I’ve not seen the predictions themselves. I just don’t trust his appearance 😂
@@TomRopezlmfao he does look a bit off hahahaha
I have proven ones here.. he does not.
It's basically the same deal as Dr Ben Goertzel lol but yeah in the end they aren't nuts. (Ray is clearly getting old though, this clip sucks)
@@TomRopez The 86% figure thrown around about him is one he came up with. But it includes obviously failed predictions as accurate.
For example he claimed that by 2009 most kids (presuming in the western countries, or even just in America) would learn to read at home before school using computers. Clearly that didn't happen. But in his self-analysis of his "own" predictions he called it accurate because a single paper claimed that 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Nothing in the paper attributed it to computers at home, and 9% is much closer to 0% than it is 51%. He basically makes vague assertions that experts in the field are already doing, then claims credit when something can remotely be interpreted as him predicting it.
Another example he claims is that he predicted the fall of the USSR. but experts had done that years before.
Just in time for the predicted 2030 reset... 😅
You see it for what it is. Nothing is “by accident” or “random”.
Poor man! For decades, he has been taking dozens of pills, medicines and undergoing detailed health examinations every year (or month), in the hope of delaying aging and avoiding his death until the arrival of the long-awaited singularity, when he can then be immortal. But there he is, showing clear signs of aging and fragility like anyone at 78 years old.
About 25 years ago, when he was in his fifties, it was easier to imagine that the great and expected future would arrive in all its glory and capabilities around 2030, but here we are, very, very far from solving the problems. of humanity.
The fact is that the years pass quickly and the once promising future, as well as old age, soon arrives, with no sure indications that we will be able to live well beyond the expected 80 years of life.
But despite Ray's techno-messianic hope, he is still a visionary who is helping to shape the future of humanity.
Realistically long live for him, and may he be at peace in his final days!
Cheers from Brazil!
2:22 "This straight line represents exponential growth" - shows linear growth graph.
5:35 "It does the same every year, it's an exponential curve".
This guy doesn't know what exponential means.
AI will be so smart in the next decade that people will begin worshipping one like a God
Yep.somepeople are already at that point now with their phone!
In terms of usage yeah. The guy with the comment about the phone is right. Technically some people are already there with their phone.
Ai will make us gods
As a computer scientist, I would cringe so hard
We still do not have light processing at the level we need for true AI. Not just novel machine learning tasks we call AI. Processing still needs to be much better. 2029 is still too early for that. I would be surprised if true light processing was halfway there by 2029.
Joe: So what's the solution then to all the world's problems?
Ray: Exponential growth
I am having "exponential growth" in my skepticism.
This guy is winging it
To truly become human it has to be wrong and fail at times.
Have to be able to purposefully oppose things to create awkward situations
True statement
Literally no one said anything about becoming human, Merlin
It will happen in (insert random number) years. Trust me.
"100% Renewable energy in 10 years" That's not even possible theoretically
lol you're not accounting for the exponential growth though
Ya not gonna happen.
And the use of energy is going up a lot year by year now due to crypto mining and A.I. training as the training of them uses a lot of energy and is only going up.
Until the grid collapses! Nikola Tesla he's NOT!
@@andreavanda5402 Nikola Tesla was a mad man who died in poverty, most of his ideas were pure insanity
New drinking game, every time he says" expidential growth"
I’d be puking my guts out…..
That comment was made by an AI trying to kill off humans 😂
Anyone in technology that’s been following Ray knows that he’s 100% on point here. His predictions aren’t a matter of if; they’re a matter of when.
How much energy could be harnessed from a 110 mile long super city in the Desert?
When the technologist has paper documents be skeptical
We need to create AI that has to sleep 8 hours a day to give us a chance 😅😴
This dude sounds like he’s talkin out his ass
Agreed
I think his geomagnetic poles are in the middle of shifting...
He is
I've been following Ray Kurzweil for decades. Ray Kurzweil is a futurist so many of his future predictions have come to fruition. AI, AGI, ASI and Solar Powered Cars is nearly there.
Futurist: brings printout of graph that is in book. Can’t say how to locate it online.
Jamie: I have it right here. I predicted your prediction. There can only be one. I am the futurist now.
Coincidence or not one of the talking AI robots I think it was Sophie said by the year 2029 they would achieve human intelligence and then laughed about taking us over. It was chilling.
Futurist? 🤔
Yet cannot understand a digital document when Joe asked for a pdf or a powerpoint to show viewers...
@dertythegrower maybe that's the sneaky hint.....maybe he knows that the future is a stone age dystopia....with some flying A.I. drones circling the planet controlling the ditty slaves
Lol yeh don’t know what that is too. I guess it means someone who studies the future n makes predictions. We are all futurists at this point lol
@@jasminek5557 I wonder how he even studies the future. You can't do it accurately unless you're very knowledgable in the field to beginwith to have an idea of the current state of things and how far it needs to go to reach that point. Clearly he's not very knowledgeable in the field, so did he really just look at few charts and say 'eh, exponential growth so x yrs'?
@@activision4170 yeh true
So right now, AI is in fake it til you make it mode
that suspender pattern brings me back to the 90s
We need to change the name to SI simulated intelligence, lets not be too hasty to put this stuff on a pedestal.
Or just use language model.
@@IAmTheRealBill Can't be language model because not all models are language-based (e.g., CNN).
How about: Curve optimization
Why even say intelligence? That's where people go wrong.
This guy talks like an AI trying to learn human but only studied the books 😂
nerds
Yeah he's either lying or ignorant, and nuclear is the future. He's probably taking money from renewable companies or lobbies.
@@Daniel1341-t2pbiggest issue with this is that the guy has no idea why he’s talking about nor what Joe is trying to ask him.
Fuck me you are hilarious. Brilliant😅
This guy is the Mike Baker of math
Once his date of 2028 gets closer to his theory then he will push it out a few more years down the road. Watching him talk is like watching the minute hand slowly going by. Joe did a great job putting up with his slow paced speaking.
2029 TERMINATOR vibes
I do not see exponential growth in this guys intelligence. He peaked at 3
A lot of you guys don't know how important Ray Kurzweil is and it shows.
Important how? To whom?
Rogan has a lot of ignorant followers and it shows, you can see the contrast over on fridmans interview
I've seen transcendent man. The guy is a bit of a lunatic.
@@brushstroke3733He's important to Larry Page... and Neil DeGrasse Tyson, need anymore?
@@zsombornagy3935 NDT is a windbag, so that just undermines RK reputation even further. Larry Page likes RK - well whooptie doo.
What a marvelous toupee
Exponentially
@@Jay-407Toupeexponentially
Human level Intelligence isn't very impressive
Your comment proves that
@@Cyprianous😂😂😂😂😂 Great comment
Depends on the human
It will be even sooner than 2029.
So bacterial growth in a substrate, say in a batch of inoculated beer substrate is exponential for a while. At some point, the alcohol concentration is too high, or the space is too limited, or there just isn't enough sugar for the growth to continue and it slows and stops.
This is the first thing I am thinking of when I think of exponential growth. I wonder why he seems to think that it will go on indefinitely, for the solar panel example for instance ...
What the hell is a futurist?
Someone who uses intelligent speculation to predict the future.
You need AI to answer that question lol ask Siri
@@melloone611lmao perfect answer
Another variation of a Globalist Elite billionaire freak
Someone who really likes the word "Exponentially"
Joe a man who knows he doesnt know.
Ray a man who thinks he knows.
Is Ray related to Mike Baker?
You will be shocked how accurate this guy has predicted a lot tech stuff. Look up him up. I actually believe he is smarter than Elon
@Lightbuck1663 everyone is smarter than Elon lol that's not a huge achievement 🤣