I believe Kurzweil on the technology being there when he says it will be. But I worry greatly about how society will handle the transition and whether or not the benefits will be widely shared.
You should read The Singularity Is Near -- Kurzweil goes into the problems and perils of AI and pretty much knocks each one down. Re: widely shared, he points to cell phones, which were expensive and status symbols in the 80s when they didn't work very well, and by the time they were good enough to be used by Joe Sixpack, they were cheap enough that Joe Sixpack could afford them.
It will be the greatest driver of wealth disparity and environmental over reach in human history. Technology is not the answer to preserving our future, it never has been.
@@sachamm Its not about the price. Will the powerful people really share these inventions with everyone if it's so powerful that it may disturb their position and status.
I wonder if people fully appreciate the impact of a prediction like this. This guy is renowned for predicting things accurate. Though things tend to develop faster than he predicted. Think about it: "AGI within the next 5 years" ! and this "The scientific progress is on a exponential." ... Good reason to refresh your knowledge on logarithmic scales ;-)
What really clicked for me is the idea of exponential tool development. The AI we have today helps us develop the AI of tomorrow, which in turn will help us develop the AI after that. I can actually see how this could snowball into AGI in five years
Well he is currently 76, so he has to live at least another 10-15 years to meet the point where he gets back more than a year of life. That would put him at 86-91 around 2034-2039. Assuming it works out like he hopes which I really hope so too. Luckily he also has the money/resources, so atleast those won't be the issue for getting the medical care needed.
surely ASI will bring us back to any age we want physically, imagine having the wisdom and knowledge of an 80yo and the vigour and appearance of an 18yo
"Anyway, we are about to enter the ultimate future..." But you know he is like that because like he said he has been talknig about it for many many decades
Longevity escape velocity: a concept that sparks imagination and challenges our assumptions about aging and life expectancy. Exciting times ahead as science pushes the boundaries of human longevity!
Aslong we do not have a way to give these longer lifespans to everyone equally at the same time, aslong we haven't found ways to sort out old stances/thoughts/morals that may otherwise stand in the way of sociological evolution especially if all the old farts then stay in power forever on at the top, then i am strictly against immortality or rather i am for a maximum age of 100 till we would find better ways of distributions of wealth and power. It is also a false hope to think that only because people can get older, they would learn more and therefor we would get an unepected boost to our technological evolution which also would hardly be needed should we get AGI anyways which then will take over the sciences more or less complettly i would suspect. I have seen enough from how humans think, of their selfish strives and the struggle of the masses to get some scraps at times, to let my self think we would end in an golden age only because we have new technologies available. I do think AI will replace sooner then later many jobs, this is already ongoing as you maybe aware. How many % can a society carry or would you let them all starve in the streets?
@@mrtienphysics666 "Everyday now is Singularity for the rich." "till we would find better ways of distributions of wealth and power." "AI will increasingly be used to wage war and exploitation." Ofcause it would. That just is the nature of its users us humans. If we find ways to more easily kill each other and have therefor the upper hand over our enemies, ofcause we would try to bank on that.
@@kinngrimmI'm all on the same wagon as you on the fact that humans still very much resemble animals when thinking which then limits us in our transhuman society goals. But I think we're not realizing how much AI will completely change the growing axis of our intelligence timeline, shifting it straight up. I'm hopeful that an exponentially greater intelligence itself will be enough to steer us onto the correct path and level us up from animality. Which only then could we ever hope for a utopia. But you never know! As some of us are still much closer to our monkey ancestors than to humans.
I love his optimism. I have no faith in the other human beings. There will be conflict and there will be a greater divide as those who have will continue to gain, and those who cannot afford will continue to get behind.
I get it. But it’s dozens of companies in dozens of countries. Not one company held by one greedy person. I expect some violence in the coming years but that’s pretty average historically. As long as good people have AI to battle bad people with AI it’s a fair fight. Right now it is. If that changes I’ll be worried, but pirates and hackers will always find a way.
@@dancorrieri2969 cyborg,he probably thinks he can extend the life of humans with neuralink , particles for AI development is mostly logistics,as he and others as well simply throw out various different kind of concepts, eventually they become dependent on other people's ideas how to perfect the infrastructure,the problem will be with AI is about the same problem as with many other things,it's energy consumption will slow things down and keep them confined geographically ,so it is inevitable to coerce with others (like minded individuals ) to create a system ,is probably just one reason why they looking to beat oversight and jurisdictional requirements to relocate to planet Mars.
@dennishaller6578 I think that to even mention how Singularity ends is Taboo now in 2024. Basically, humans will become in ASIs by uploading their minds in the digital world before 2045. What more do you want to know about? If you read his book you know this is how it ends.
You/we should be more (or as) worried about global warming, ocean acidification, and climate change. Those trend lines are very clear. Good luck mid century, seriously.
I like RK’s confidence. His predictions omit things like conflict (between countries, between companies, and between people) and monetizing the technology for profit. The only way we all see the benefits he is proposing is if, by some stroke of fortune, the investors in the tech feel fine to make it universally available or affordable. There are those who will depend on our competitive nature to know more and be better than “them.” We have become increasingly exclusionary since before Columbus sailed across the Atlantic, so there’s little chance that the “haves” will ever allow anyone else to come close to parity with them. It’s sad, but it is who we are.
@@neilifill4819 Did you not look at any of the graphs? A feudal lord would have much less pie compared to the average person today. Income (incl govt programs), life expectancy, electricity, etc? Go back to 1850s you had no electricity, a 40% chance of dying in child birth, no money and no govt programs -- literally everyone has way more pie now than in the 1850s by a huge margin.
I think he's looking at it through the lens of: it's always been like that. I'm sure throughout our history, every generation said that "We're so fucked, it'll never get better than this", yet here we are, it always got better, bit by bit. Yeah you look at us and you can see that monkey ancestry real well, but it resembled a monkey muuuuuch more generations before. We were much worse decades ago... but hundreds of years? thousands? millions? I don't think we can even fathom how bad it was as you look back through time. AI is gonna shift this axis of growth through time straight up. It'll be the industrial revolution raised to the power of the industrial revolution. Which is a number that you can't even display, hence it's called the singularity. (Which goes beyond what our current brains can comprehend)
its very simple. Kurzweil speaks, I listen. Then I dream of transhuman future where we experience richness and nuance beyond what is possible now. the universe is so vast...
You haven't been paying attention if you believe technology creates a better world. Yeah, it's always better for 10% of humans but BAAAD for all else. Yes, you do dream. Wake up!
It's Posthuman future, definition of what is human has always changed and humanism was always discriminatory against all that is not considered human. Good riddance of any humanist future.
It's nice to know that I'm not crazy when I say the exact same things to people, even if they think I'm totally crazy and that it will take a million years to achieve it all!
Most people always think in linear terms. All kinds of progress (wealth accumulation, healing from injuries, technological advancement) move in S-shapes or J-curves, but the common mind wants to put everything into simple linear graphs.
Never heard of the OG of AI? He was there before anyone else on the planet and (literally) wrote the book on it. Good books too. I highly recommend them.
I have bought & read "The Singularity is Near, When Humans Transcend Biology" a few years ago, it enlightens me a lot! Hope to see more new books. I will buy the new "The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI " to read.
I remember reading Michio Kaku's book "Physics of the Future," which he wrote in 2011. It was fascinating to learn about the prototypes he mentioned, especially those related to AI. It's incredible to see many of those predictions coming to life. My wife and I often discuss these advancements in AI and share our insights. Check us out!
That's not saying much 2024 years many knew that we would one sense the universe in all it's glory ( metamorphosis) in reverse..invented a word to express the anylitical minds future. In author knew it launched the puritan movement and quest for roots of civilization archeology to make sure they got it right in English encoded language oreintation and direction longitude and latitude was the beginning project of carefully crafting the world as we know it. It's our elusive prosperity that esoterica America bought into whole hearted . But so has the world it is pillar upon which we stand. Fundamental feature in reality tunes all precision instruments
After reading his book Singularity is near I think Ray Kurzweil's prediction are accurate , awesome and exciting. Thanks Ray for such a wonderful masterpiece for tech and future enthusiast. Looking forward to read his next book Singularity is nearer.
We learned that his predictions surprisingly continue to be more-or-less on-track as we approach the prediction apex at the end of this decade. He is not selling novelty.
I hope that he’s right I think it will take much longer than we think. It’s the 20-80 principle to achieve AGI or longevity escape velocity. And we are not even at 80%. So it will take 80% more effort to get to these goals.
It comes the Intelligence's Expansion in Every Dimension with the help of the ASIs. Nobody is capable of predicting the future as good as this Titan. I hope he can see and enjoy the Singularity.
If all languages can be processed through a universal translator, then we won't need to speak the same auditory/rhetoric language as another person. The point is we will be able to understand each other regardless of what language each person is speaking. We basically have that right now.
@@bengsynthmusic Your phone can translate right now. Google translate does it, Siri, Chat GPT, auto subtitles on every youtube video. Did you notice that snuck in over the past few years? We have universal language right now.
@@dannylifted9441 Translation is a service not a language. We're not there yet with one language. That would take many decades and some brain enhancements.
There are simple things we can do now to increase lifespan like a tablespoon of vinegar with a glass of water twenty to thirty minutes before a meal, especially a high carb meal, and light exercise after a meal like going for a walk. By doing this it will reduce the damage caused by glucose spikes.
Ray is the true prophet. In his 2005 book ``The Singularity Is Near,'' Ray predicted that computer intelligence would rival that of humans by 2029. Even those who supported Ray thought in their hearts that it might not happen and did not really believe it. However, now things are going exactly as Ray predicted! ! Why are Ray's predictions so reliably accurate? The secret is that information technology advances exponentially, a law so certain it can be called a law of physics. It becomes a straight line on a logarithmic graph. We only need to believe in that straight line.
Like the guy above me said , the rate of Growth is only going up incredibly fast compared to anything else humans have made. So it will be a true snowball effect for humanity and tech.
It's hard to argue with his data on the progress. Even though there is still a chance of black swan event like civilization collapse or black swan event rogue AI, he is still giving us hope intelligent life can emerge with people in the loop. If only they can go with the flow of change. ❤ There is no better way to practice improv principle "yes, and..." than to this unpredictable process of relative-to-humans-singularity
All these A.I. companies are financed by corporations who hope for a big return on their investments. It is difficult to imagine, in these economic conditions, that this handful of rich investors would have the well-being of humanity as their primary motivation! They will want to make their billions in profit, before A.I. be beneficial to humanity. if it weren't for that, Mr. Kurzweil's timeline would be feasible.
People watching this need to be aware of two things. First, there's a somewhat arbitrary decision made by Kurzweil in how he adds dots to his long extrapolation. It's not obvious how to equate processing power from the 1950s to processing power today. A vast amount of circuitry in modern chips is there to hide latency. This includes out-of-order execution scheduling, ALU pipelining, speculative execution, branch prediction, and all of the caches. It's darn impressive how well this all finally works, in certain important problem domains. But there's no easy way to compare a transistor from today to a transistor from yesterday. Second, Kurzweil's determination to ride the exponential to the stars and beyond does not qualify him to speculate on time frames associated with humanity mucking about with actual human mortality. The only way this plays out at the speed he is predicting is that rogue laboratories are known to be doing it, outside the control of any government or similar social restraint. Government might decide: if you can't beat them, join them. Or it might decide: if you can't beat them, turn them into a glass pond. If you think abortion is a hot button, just wait until immortality (for once not entirely cursed) sticks its ugly head into the building.
I wish he would talk more about how community / economy will be working after AGI. I guess it won't at all. What would be the point of humans working with AGI? or the point of money at all? Lots to look forward to.
The historical perspective on AI evolution is enlightening. It's amazing to see how far we've come and the potential future applications in medicine and energy.
Right on. It means what is has always meant. That is, a single person will be expected to the work of what had been done by that many more people in the past. It would be true that we would work less ONLY if we were expected to do what we ONLY do now.
I have watched a lot of videos of Ray. No disrespect to him, but he is talking more about 'MY predictions...', than about AI itself. When he is discussing some topic, it seems that he is just promoting himself. I think we all agree, a prediction is useless. Action is everything.
Except he's been making outlandish predictions for decades.... and they've all come true so far. He even predicted the breakup of the Soviet Union, back when no one believed it possible. So, he's worth listening to.
We must address, individually and collectively, moral and ethical issues raised by cutting-edge research in artificial intelligence and biotechnology, which will enable significant life extension, designer babies, and memory extraction.
It won't take that long bro, by the time you get to 2030 it won't be some AI passing the turing test, it will be ASI artificial superintelligence. And AGI already almost here, probably end of this year.
What life must have been like before AI. I read about our ancestors, but frankly, I can’t imagine life before AI, when people had to figure out what they wanted and how to get it all by themselves when there were no reference points, followed by an abundance of similar opportunities that could be easily acquired with the push of a button. And worse of all, how could they survive without home delivery? Can you imagine what life must have been like when you had to go out to get whatever drink or food you wanted to consume? Now that you’ve mentioned it, I can’t imagine what it was like.
I love his optimism. It gives me hope for a better world for everyone unless we destroy our golden opportunity with unnecessary wars, hatred, and division. The geopolitical outlook today seems bleak, and a nuclear war lurks on the horizon. It feels like a race in either direction. Our actions will show how much we care about this world, life, humanity, and its future.
AI is not neutral. It is optimised for some loss function, which gives it a goal, and indirect there can be many additional subgoals that sometimes are much more complex and maleficent than the more neutral loss function. My point is, we should worry about ai being an agent with goals we don't fully understand
Like any good salesman, he mentions all the pros of AI but doesn't mention the cons. And boy are the cons terrifying... I'll just take my regular life/death cycle please and thank you
I believe it is less about Ray living forever, and more about knowledge and hopefully collective consciousness transferring into a form that becomes indestructible, rather than fragile in its current biological form.
At a press conference on 6 October [2021] Anders Tegnell, epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency, explained that the suspension of the Moderna vaccine followed the detection of signals of an increased risk of side effects such as myocarditis and pericarditis. (BMJ)
I love Ray Kurzweil, but this is all wildly-optimistic. I think achieving these things by these dates is possible. But given human beings are governing the advancement, and solving some of these problems like AGI may be orders of magnitude harder than we imagine. Still cool to think about and have hope for the future.
Government programs do not make people richer, well, unless you are the recipient of that wealth, which means the rich. The poor certainly have more creature comforts, until you go all the way down to the homeless.
I would like to ask him that if technological evolution is so high and the CPU price comes down so fast, why same doesn't happen with food? What's so different with agricultural technology compared to information technology? Why information technology, or the by product of it: software, is getting cheaper while food not? And what things we can learn by answering that question? Is there anything that isn't taken into account in the singularity forecasts because it seems evolution isn't happening where it should: on food prices. Because after all, that is what actually matters. Is there something fundamentally wrong with technology since evolution is happening where is doesn't matter that match to our daily lives (AI) but no where it matters a lot (food prices)? How this phenomena can be explained
I'm obviously not Ray, but here is how I will try to answer your concern or interest. It seems like the major advancements in food production are done. The Haber-Bosch process hugely reduced the price of ammonia-based fertilizers. Humans have selectively bred plants, animals, and organisms for over 10,000 years, but we learned recently how to genetically modify our favorite organisms in the past 100 or so years. We've learned or applied nearly all the useful techniques and technology we can for food. Food has become abundant; especially the basic staples. Now, directly facing your concern of the prices: food has become a smaller portion of family incomes over the past 100 or more years. Also, a smaller percentage of people farm these days. Our farms are more productive, and our distribution is much more widespread. Costs in adjusted dollars has gone down, and the ease of access to abundant food is at all time highs. This doesn't mean there aren't significant problems still happening: there remains food scarcity and food insecurity in some regions of the world, especially when disasters occur (war, drought, floods, earthquakes, fires, and so on). Also, in recent times, there has been significant inflation in the US and other places in the world: hopefully, we regain a stable economy soon. A large part of our current inflation is greedflation from loosely-regulated corporations. And to directly answer your question of [paraphrasing], "How come there's so much development in computers and IT while the development of agriculture isn't so steep?" I think this is best answered by quoting Richard Feynman from 1959, "There's plenty of room at the bottom." By this, I mean that comptuer technology is still miniaturizing. How can agriculture possibly miniaturize? I guess we can use more vertical farming techniques, but beyond that, a carrot must be the same size as a regular carrot. There's no compressing the size of a carrot. On the other hand, perhaps humans will engineer their bodies soon to be smaller or more efficient, so maybe the same size carrot feeds more people. That remains to be seen. In the meantime, computer tech and IT will continue improving and miniaturizing for the foreseeable future-even if we bump into difficult to overcome limits like the 5nm or 3nm lithography scale. I hope I've answered things clearly. Let me know.
@@Paraselene_Tao thanks a lot! it actually does somewhat answer my question. It is like I have this concern that the singularity theory as it is might eventually be uncredible due to this matter. What do I mean? The theory is a PROMISE of lot better future. But how can we reach the better future if we fail to develop on area that actually MATTERS. Like food prices. Orange juice price has more than tripled during the past 7 years, just to mention something. It is like, we can have cheap food, but if you want to buy something fresh and healthy like oranges, salmon or tuna, the prices aren't necessarily getting lower. So, what if people end up having lot of "tech" but little food and other really meaningful substances, that are necessary for a good life. Wouldn't that mean that the singularity theory is implausible and it will not bring good life for all the world but probably for a narrow elite?
@@ustedvende I might reply to each of your concerns later, but for now, I highly recommend you read or listen to Ray Kurzweil's most recent book titled The Singularity is Nearer. I'm not finished with the book, but in chapter 4, he specifically mentions the general topic of agriculture. I think it will benefit you a lot to read chapter 4 titled Life is Getting Exponentially Better because it touches on many of your concerns. Also, I suggest you email Ray Kurzweil your questions because there's a chance he will reply to you. Have a great day or a good night.
Everyone should fear the day Ai takes over at scale. I’m writing my thesis right now to finish my second degree. It’s on the impact of AI in education k-12. Will change the whole landscape of how we learn and teach. I just got some certifications from coursera on AI as well. It’s gunna be a game changer in the white collar workforce as well. And if you aren’t skilled in it or have knowledge on it and how to use it more efficiently and effectively you’ll be gone.
It took me plenty of time to pick up translation skills for language in a host of different genres. I did OK with it, but it meant hard slog, and making best use of my intelligence, and many other skills. It was not what I trained for, so I had to adapt even as I started from scratch. I did it. I am - apparently - an early victim of machine learning as assignments have already faded away, without it even being clear if what texts result are adequate or not. To the best of my knowledge we DO NOT know this, yet the content of what is written is NOT capable of being dismissed so easily, with being impossible to suggest that it does not matter at all if things are misrepresented in the plethora of texts out there. There is already a HUGE elephant in this room. As somebody Born Again on 28-2-21, I came to realise more strongly than before how translation was and is a gift of the Holy Spirit. The New Testament makes that rather directly clear. If I have that gift and yet no sphere in which to use it; then in essence something evil has already happened... Think on...
There must have been an event on 14th Nov 2017at the Society of Neuroscience in Washington. At the keynote Speech Demis Hassabis said, AI is nothing else than applied brain science. He must have spoken for around an hour when he must have said: "First we solve the problem and understand what Intelligence (Thinking) is about.And then we solve other problems." (Indirect source from manfred Spitzer). Unfortunately I never found the video. But there is some hope that it will show up.
Hinton may be the Godfather of AI, but I think we can all agree that Ray is the God of AI. And how cool that our one true God not only dons suspenders- but THOSE suspenders 🥰
We must protect Ray. He’s 76 right now, it be so amazing to see him in the year 2060 in good health 😁
Yes!! 😭🙏❤️
He'll be 53 by then!
@@Grillpander Probably haha
Lol how ?
Hate to be a pessimist, but he looks pretty bad for 76. All his daily pills aren’t working
Hello the year 2030. Do we have AGI there?
I'll get back to you in 2030
No, but we have another Kurzweil book
Agi coming next year
@@juandesalgadoagi sooner than you think
Set a reminder for 2030, will get back.
I believe Kurzweil on the technology being there when he says it will be. But I worry greatly about how society will handle the transition and whether or not the benefits will be widely shared.
its gonna be chaos.
You should read The Singularity Is Near -- Kurzweil goes into the problems and perils of AI and pretty much knocks each one down. Re: widely shared, he points to cell phones, which were expensive and status symbols in the 80s when they didn't work very well, and by the time they were good enough to be used by Joe Sixpack, they were cheap enough that Joe Sixpack could afford them.
Почему ничего не рассказали о кабинках для эвтаназии и планах сокращения населения на 3/4?
It will be the greatest driver of wealth disparity and environmental over reach in human history. Technology is not the answer to preserving our future, it never has been.
@@sachamm Its not about the price. Will the powerful people really share these inventions with everyone if it's so powerful that it may disturb their position and status.
I wonder if people fully appreciate the impact of a prediction like this. This guy is renowned for predicting things accurate. Though things tend to develop faster than he predicted. Think about it: "AGI within the next 5 years" ! and this "The scientific progress is on a exponential." ... Good reason to refresh your knowledge on logarithmic scales ;-)
What really clicked for me is the idea of exponential tool development. The AI we have today helps us develop the AI of tomorrow, which in turn will help us develop the AI after that. I can actually see how this could snowball into AGI in five years
Dude doesn’t understand Google’s data-based advertising model and how data plays a role in AI. It’s hard to listen to him after that.
Ray's suspenders make me smile :D
We can come up with the technology of 1 trillion calculations per second, but cannot create effective suspenders 😂😂😂
Hope Ray makes it 🍀
Well he is currently 76, so he has to live at least another 10-15 years to meet the point where he gets back more than a year of life. That would put him at 86-91 around 2034-2039. Assuming it works out like he hopes which I really hope so too. Luckily he also has the money/resources, so atleast those won't be the issue for getting the medical care needed.
His money won’t be sufficient. We need scientific breakthroughs.
🤣😂🤣😂🤣🚀 👍
I think he will live at least as long as anyone reading this.
surely ASI will bring us back to any age we want physically, imagine having the wisdom and knowledge of an 80yo and the vigour and appearance of an 18yo
I freakin' love how Ray talks about these things ALMOST like he's bored. It cracks me up.
"Anyway, we are about to enter the ultimate future..." But you know he is like that because like he said he has been talknig about it for many many decades
@@lawrencefrost9063 Absolutely, baffling.
I'm so captured by all of this going on.
He's 76.
He's really STRUGGLING here. He keeps umming and ahhing all the time. This lecture: "Ummm.......Ummm.....Ummm....Ummm....Ummm....Ummm.."
@@emmapasqule2432 He has aged quite a lot in the last few years, but he is 76. It happens.
Longevity escape velocity: a concept that sparks imagination and challenges our assumptions about aging and life expectancy. Exciting times ahead as science pushes the boundaries of human longevity!
Aslong we do not have a way to give these longer lifespans to everyone equally at the same time, aslong we haven't found ways to sort out old stances/thoughts/morals that may otherwise stand in the way of sociological evolution especially if all the old farts then stay in power forever on at the top, then i am strictly against immortality or rather i am for a maximum age of 100 till we would find better ways of distributions of wealth and power.
It is also a false hope to think that only because people can get older, they would learn more and therefor we would get an unepected boost to our technological evolution which also would hardly be needed should we get AGI anyways which then will take over the sciences more or less complettly i would suspect.
I have seen enough from how humans think, of their selfish strives and the struggle of the masses to get some scraps at times, to let my self think we would end in an golden age only because we have new technologies available. I do think AI will replace sooner then later many jobs, this is already ongoing as you maybe aware. How many % can a society carry or would you let them all starve in the streets?
@@kinngrimm Everyday now is Singularity for the rich. AI will increasingly be used to wage war and exploitation.
@@mrtienphysics666
"Everyday now is Singularity for the rich."
"till we would find better ways of distributions of wealth and power."
"AI will increasingly be used to wage war and exploitation."
Ofcause it would. That just is the nature of its users us humans. If we find ways to more easily kill each other and have therefor the upper hand over our enemies, ofcause we would try to bank on that.
@@kinngrimmI'm all on the same wagon as you on the fact that humans still very much resemble animals when thinking which then limits us in our transhuman society goals. But I think we're not realizing how much AI will completely change the growing axis of our intelligence timeline, shifting it straight up. I'm hopeful that an exponentially greater intelligence itself will be enough to steer us onto the correct path and level us up from animality. Which only then could we ever hope for a utopia. But you never know! As some of us are still much closer to our monkey ancestors than to humans.
@@kinngrimm did u watched altered carbon ?
I love his optimism. I have no faith in the other human beings. There will be conflict and there will be a greater divide as those who have will continue to gain, and those who cannot afford will continue to get behind.
Non-sense
I get it. But it’s dozens of companies in dozens of countries. Not one company held by one greedy person. I expect some violence in the coming years but that’s pretty average historically. As long as good people have AI to battle bad people with AI it’s a fair fight. Right now it is. If that changes I’ll be worried, but pirates and hackers will always find a way.
I liked the theory of escape velocity longevity.
This is the only TED talk I've watched more than once. That's saying something.
We must protect Ray. He’s 76 right now, it be so amazing to see him in the year 2060 in good health
Separation of body,mind and soul is a sin against God,and everything we believe in.
He is creating his own AI for himself based on his personal data - books, notes, and videos - so he will "live" on.
@@dancorrieri2969 cyborg,he probably thinks he can extend the life of humans with neuralink , particles for AI development is mostly logistics,as he and others as well simply throw out various different kind of concepts, eventually they become dependent on other people's ideas how to perfect the infrastructure,the problem will be with AI is about the same problem as with many other things,it's energy consumption will slow things down and keep them confined geographically ,so it is inevitable to coerce with others (like minded individuals ) to create a system ,is probably just one reason why they looking to beat oversight and jurisdictional requirements to relocate to planet Mars.
@@sofiaruha1277 Eh, if it's possible at all then that's a design issue on God's part
This is like a breath of fresh air
Really? I had the exact opposite feeling, what is new in this story which he didn't already told us 5 to 10 years ago?
Sadly not. What he is saying he is saying for a long time and not all of it is correct.
@dennishaller6578 I think that to even mention how Singularity ends is Taboo now in 2024. Basically, humans will become in ASIs by uploading their minds in the digital world before 2045. What more do you want to know about? If you read his book you know this is how it ends.
You’re absolutely right, even though he has previously spoken about this it is still truly remarkable what could be possible
It’s the future
I will be 42 by the year 2045, hope the future accepts technology, and AGI and not a nuclear war.
and you will return to 21 year old as you are now 😂
Yep, reverse aging 😅@@MinhHoang-vj9ts
You have to play Cyberpunk.
I will be 68 then.. hope im still alive then 😅
You/we should be more (or as) worried about global warming, ocean acidification, and climate change. Those trend lines are very clear. Good luck mid century, seriously.
I like RK’s confidence. His predictions omit things like conflict (between countries, between companies, and between people) and monetizing the technology for profit. The only way we all see the benefits he is proposing is if, by some stroke of fortune, the investors in the tech feel fine to make it universally available or affordable. There are those who will depend on our competitive nature to know more and be better than “them.” We have become increasingly exclusionary since before Columbus sailed across the Atlantic, so there’s little chance that the “haves” will ever allow anyone else to come close to parity with them. It’s sad, but it is who we are.
The pie grows and grows
@@drhxa but we don’t seem to make more slices…
@@neilifill4819 Did you not look at any of the graphs? A feudal lord would have much less pie compared to the average person today. Income (incl govt programs), life expectancy, electricity, etc?
Go back to 1850s you had no electricity, a 40% chance of dying in child birth, no money and no govt programs -- literally everyone has way more pie now than in the 1850s by a huge margin.
The “haves” will be a thing of the past when the inevitable wealth tax is established.
I think he's looking at it through the lens of: it's always been like that. I'm sure throughout our history, every generation said that "We're so fucked, it'll never get better than this", yet here we are, it always got better, bit by bit. Yeah you look at us and you can see that monkey ancestry real well, but it resembled a monkey muuuuuch more generations before. We were much worse decades ago... but hundreds of years? thousands? millions? I don't think we can even fathom how bad it was as you look back through time. AI is gonna shift this axis of growth through time straight up. It'll be the industrial revolution raised to the power of the industrial revolution. Which is a number that you can't even display, hence it's called the singularity. (Which goes beyond what our current brains can comprehend)
its very simple. Kurzweil speaks, I listen. Then I dream of transhuman future where we experience richness and nuance beyond what is possible now.
the universe is so vast...
You haven't been paying attention if you believe technology creates a better world. Yeah, it's always better for 10% of humans but BAAAD for all else. Yes, you do dream. Wake up!
Yep, we will experience it all whilst floating in a gooey sack in a warehouse that is patrolled by mini Elon Musk look a like robots.
It's Posthuman future, definition of what is human has always changed and humanism was always discriminatory against all that is not considered human. Good riddance of any humanist future.
It's nice to know that I'm not crazy when I say the exact same things to people, even if they think I'm totally crazy and that it will take a million years to achieve it all!
Most people always think in linear terms. All kinds of progress (wealth accumulation, healing from injuries, technological advancement) move in S-shapes or J-curves, but the common mind wants to put everything into simple linear graphs.
Never heard of this guy.
Now, I won't forget him.
Never heard of the OG of AI? He was there before anyone else on the planet and (literally) wrote the book on it. Good books too. I highly recommend them.
@xjohnny1000 No, as I've never been interested tbh. Obviously now my interest has been lit.
@@TheClaptonisgod1Read The Age Of Spiritual Machines. It will blow your mind .
He is the Eric Clapton of AI.
I really want this guy to live much longer. He is so passionate about it, and his optimism is incredible.
I have bought & read "The Singularity is Near, When Humans Transcend Biology" a few years ago, it enlightens me a lot! Hope to see more new books. I will buy the new "The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI " to read.
This video should have a billion views.
Yes. I agree.
So that people can see the evil intent.
@@Gold10Grandyes and seems its coming soon. I look forward to the rapture.
I'm convinced Ray is slowly transforming into Raggedy Andy, as a bridge to immortality.
😂 gold.
Hahaha. Hos outfit struck me as strange and his wig! 😅
@@classicaleducationpodcast I think it's hair plugs.
I remember reading Michio Kaku's book "Physics of the Future," which he wrote in 2011. It was fascinating to learn about the prototypes he mentioned, especially those related to AI. It's incredible to see many of those predictions coming to life. My wife and I often discuss these advancements in AI and share our insights. Check us out!
Nice
Physics of the Impossible was great!
That's not saying much 2024 years many knew that we would one sense the universe in all it's glory ( metamorphosis) in reverse..invented a word to express the anylitical minds future.
In author knew it launched the puritan movement and quest for roots of civilization archeology to make sure they got it right in
English encoded language oreintation and direction longitude and latitude was the beginning project of carefully crafting the world as we know it. It's our elusive prosperity that esoterica America bought into whole hearted .
But so has the world it is pillar upon which we stand.
Fundamental feature in reality tunes all precision instruments
I picked him ( Professor kaku)and his wife up in my yellow taxi last year in Manhattan NY. I will never forget that moment. He is a great guy. 😂
After reading his book Singularity is near I think Ray Kurzweil's prediction are accurate , awesome and exciting. Thanks Ray for such a wonderful masterpiece for tech and future enthusiast. Looking forward to read his next book Singularity is nearer.
I love this guy's optimism.
The man has earned his stripes. But to be honest, what did I learn from this video compared to the stuff he told us 5 to 10 years ago?
I didn't know about AI use in the medical field
Indeed.Nothingburger
We learned that his predictions surprisingly continue to be more-or-less on-track as we approach the prediction apex at the end of this decade.
He is not selling novelty.
It's the same speech over and over with a few additions.
Of course you learned nothing, this talk isn't for longtime observers. This is for people who are unfamiliar with AI and his work on it
Is this recent? He looks so much more lively here than in some recent interviews I’ve seen. Good for Ray!
It’s good to see him doing well.
I hope that he’s right I think it will take much longer than we think. It’s the 20-80 principle to achieve AGI or longevity escape velocity. And we are not even at 80%. So it will take 80% more effort to get to these goals.
He is a treasure with a golden heart. Thank you Mr. Kurzweil for everything you bring to us.
this guy is the reason we will achieve agi
What do you mean?
@@therandommusicguy4773 h
he is doing a motivation work
@@therandommusicguy4773this man can see the future what we can not see...
It comes the Intelligence's Expansion in Every Dimension with the help of the ASIs.
Nobody is capable of predicting the future as good as this Titan. I hope he can see and enjoy the Singularity.
We can speak any language we want. I am very much looking forward to the future 2045. I love you kurzweil ❤
If all languages can be processed through a universal translator, then we won't need to speak the same auditory/rhetoric language as another person. The point is we will be able to understand each other regardless of what language each person is speaking. We basically have that right now.
@@dannylifted9441
Not at all. There are thousands of language barriers. And it would take the whole century until everyone wears the enhancements.
@@bengsynthmusic Your phone can translate right now. Google translate does it, Siri, Chat GPT, auto subtitles on every youtube video. Did you notice that snuck in over the past few years? We have universal language right now.
@@dannylifted9441
Translation is a service not a language. We're not there yet with one language. That would take many decades and some brain enhancements.
Dear TED team,
Thanks for your efforts
Plz try to add subtitles in your videos for better understanding
Regards
If it helps you can hit ‘CC’ and see the subtitles, at least in English
Among the most amazing TED talks that I’ve seen recently.
There are simple things we can do now to increase lifespan like a tablespoon of vinegar with a glass of water twenty to thirty minutes before a meal, especially a high carb meal, and light exercise after a meal like going for a walk. By doing this it will reduce the damage caused by glucose spikes.
I'm honestly excited about longevity Biotech because its my favorite future technology.
NVDA is the leader.
Ray Kurzweil on TED, that is a surprising accomplishment .
Ray is the true prophet.
In his 2005 book ``The Singularity Is Near,'' Ray predicted that computer intelligence would rival that of humans by 2029.
Even those who supported Ray thought in their hearts that it might not happen and did not really believe it.
However, now things are going exactly as Ray predicted! !
Why are Ray's predictions so reliably accurate?
The secret is that information technology advances exponentially, a law so certain it can be called a law of physics.
It becomes a straight line on a logarithmic graph.
We only need to believe in that straight line.
I love his optimism and though I'm not sure about the time scale, I do believe we will attain it.
Because the AIs of today will help us make those of tomorrow. So the whole thing will accelerate.
Like the guy above me said , the rate of Growth is only going up incredibly fast compared to anything else humans have made. So it will be a true snowball effect for humanity and tech.
" The year 2030. Singularity is nearerer."
Ray Kurzweil
Year 2030 No singularity Ray Kurzveil dead humans dead
It's hard to argue with his data on the progress. Even though there is still a chance of black swan event like civilization collapse or black swan event rogue AI, he is still giving us hope intelligent life can emerge with people in the loop. If only they can go with the flow of change. ❤ There is no better way to practice improv principle "yes, and..." than to this unpredictable process of relative-to-humans-singularity
can’t wait to see how Aliagents evolves, this project has serious potential in the AI space
All these A.I. companies are financed by corporations who hope for a big return on their investments.
It is difficult to imagine, in these economic conditions, that this handful of rich investors would have the well-being of humanity as their primary motivation! They will want to make their billions in profit, before A.I. be beneficial to humanity. if it weren't for that, Mr. Kurzweil's timeline would be feasible.
His predictions sound outlandish, but if you look at his track record, I have to take them seriously
He’s getting younger. That makes me excited. Here we go.
@@firstresponderrealtor his hair will turn back to color by next TED.
@@m4r_art I'd love to bet, but you will be right...
You can have hair like his too, but you have toupée for it
@@Anx3lx LOL - Yes, that is right.
9:51 Los ensayos Clínicos durarán menos?
In the 70's and 80's it wasn't even artificial stupidity but it is amazing today.
the progress Aliagents is making in AI is worth paying attention to, the future is bright
the way Aliagents structures their AI agents is groundbreaking, can’t wait to see what’s next
the singularity is near!
Still decades away.
@@jimj2683 sure, a whopping 2 decades. that may as well be tomorrow.
*nearer
Remember, they were predicting flying cars by 1985.
Remember, we were supposed to have flying cars and bubble cities by 1985.
This is the most exciting time to be learning CS
People watching this need to be aware of two things.
First, there's a somewhat arbitrary decision made by Kurzweil in how he adds dots to his long extrapolation. It's not obvious how to equate processing power from the 1950s to processing power today. A vast amount of circuitry in modern chips is there to hide latency. This includes out-of-order execution scheduling, ALU pipelining, speculative execution, branch prediction, and all of the caches. It's darn impressive how well this all finally works, in certain important problem domains. But there's no easy way to compare a transistor from today to a transistor from yesterday.
Second, Kurzweil's determination to ride the exponential to the stars and beyond does not qualify him to speculate on time frames associated with humanity mucking about with actual human mortality. The only way this plays out at the speed he is predicting is that rogue laboratories are known to be doing it, outside the control of any government or similar social restraint. Government might decide: if you can't beat them, join them. Or it might decide: if you can't beat them, turn them into a glass pond. If you think abortion is a hot button, just wait until immortality (for once not entirely cursed) sticks its ugly head into the building.
It's called a prediction because no one actually knows. So it's silly to say he isn't qualified.
The chart just represented when new chip generations became available, and he placed where their power and date intersected.
30 years ago i didn`t hear so often about cancer .......now it`s something normal ...
I wish he would talk more about how community / economy will be working after AGI. I guess it won't at all. What would be the point of humans working with AGI? or the point of money at all? Lots to look forward to.
Praying that the world will come to its senses soon and that people will return to normal
What a long journey it’s been, self autonomous computers.
Exciting to be alive at this time😮
i'll believe it when i see it, for now its all smoke to get investor money
@@dan-cj1rr yeah this video isn’t a masterpiece
Incredible. Wake an awesome human! Thank you!!
The historical perspective on AI evolution is enlightening. It's amazing to see how far we've come and the potential future applications in medicine and energy.
the tech behind Aliagents is super interesting, tokenized AI systems with real functionality
It sounds like magic. Ray is so hopeful and optimistic but it’s all based on the scientific method.
The ideas sends chills down my spine.
Every-time somebody says technology will make us work less, it mean the opposite.
Exactly...and the problems become more complex to solve.
Right on. It means what is has always meant. That is, a single person will be expected to the work of what had been done by that many more people in the past. It would be true that we would work less ONLY if we were expected to do what we ONLY do now.
I have watched a lot of videos of Ray. No disrespect to him, but he is talking more about 'MY predictions...', than about AI itself. When he is discussing some topic, it seems that he is just promoting himself. I think we all agree, a prediction is useless. Action is everything.
Except he's been making outlandish predictions for decades.... and they've all come true so far. He even predicted the breakup of the Soviet Union, back when no one believed it possible. So, he's worth listening to.
We must address, individually and collectively, moral and ethical issues raised by cutting-edge research in artificial intelligence and biotechnology, which will enable significant life extension, designer babies, and memory extraction.
I love the conundrums on how to protect it all. From safety to its security, exciting times ahead
Ay yo sap Dude, are you an American
It won't take that long bro, by the time you get to 2030 it won't be some AI passing the turing test, it will be ASI artificial superintelligence. And AGI already almost here, probably end of this year.
It seems weird to call such a legendary and respected thinker “bro”
What life must have been like before AI.
I read about our ancestors, but frankly, I can’t imagine life before AI, when people had to figure out what they wanted and how to get it all by themselves when there were no reference points, followed by an abundance of similar opportunities that could be easily acquired with the push of a button. And worse of all, how could they survive without home delivery? Can you imagine what life must have been like when you had to go out to get whatever drink or food you wanted to consume? Now that you’ve mentioned it, I can’t imagine what it was like.
Nice breakdown - timeline provided the context. 4:11
I love his optimism. It gives me hope for a better world for everyone unless we destroy our golden opportunity with unnecessary wars, hatred, and division. The geopolitical outlook today seems bleak, and a nuclear war lurks on the horizon. It feels like a race in either direction. Our actions will show how much we care about this world, life, humanity, and its future.
Ray Kurzweil SUPER GENIUS !
いい話だったよ！
Artificial Intelligence is neutral, it is the hands that feeds it which is of major, major concerns
AI is not neutral. It is optimised for some loss function, which gives it a goal, and indirect there can be many additional subgoals that sometimes are much more complex and maleficent than the more neutral loss function.
My point is, we should worry about ai being an agent with goals we don't fully understand
Like any good salesman, he mentions all the pros of AI but doesn't mention the cons. And boy are the cons terrifying... I'll just take my regular life/death cycle please and thank you
By 2030, I hope to be one of the people that make AGI/ASI a reality
I believe it is less about Ray living forever, and more about knowledge and hopefully collective consciousness transferring into a form that becomes indestructible, rather than fragile in its current biological form.
Ai's growth has been incredibly exponential, sit back, buckle up and enjoy, it's going to be a hella wild ride.
At a press conference on 6 October [2021] Anders Tegnell, epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency, explained that the suspension of the Moderna vaccine followed the detection of signals of an increased risk of side effects such as myocarditis and pericarditis. (BMJ)
I love Ray Kurzweil, but this is all wildly-optimistic. I think achieving these things by these dates is possible. But given human beings are governing the advancement, and solving some of these problems like AGI may be orders of magnitude harder than we imagine. Still cool to think about and have hope for the future.
10:57 omg I think Ray just admitted to being a time traveller from the future?! That explains his prediction accuracy...
Ray Kurzweil is my hero.
this man would deserve it more than anyone if he's right
well done ray thanks 🙏 now the AI 🔥🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀 to singularity
Let’s all make it together!
Aliagents is leading the way with their unique approach to tokenized AI systems
Thanks For Information
Legend!
I just imagined a conversation between Ray and Noam Chomsky. :)
Government programs do not make people richer, well, unless you are the recipient of that wealth, which means the rich. The poor certainly have more creature comforts, until you go all the way down to the homeless.
I would like to ask him that if technological evolution is so high and the CPU price comes down so fast, why same doesn't happen with food? What's so different with agricultural technology compared to information technology? Why information technology, or the by product of it: software, is getting cheaper while food not?
And what things we can learn by answering that question? Is there anything that isn't taken into account in the singularity forecasts because it seems evolution isn't happening where it should: on food prices.
Because after all, that is what actually matters. Is there something fundamentally wrong with technology since evolution is happening where is doesn't matter that match to our daily lives (AI) but no where it matters a lot (food prices)?
How this phenomena can be explained
I'm obviously not Ray, but here is how I will try to answer your concern or interest.
It seems like the major advancements in food production are done. The Haber-Bosch process hugely reduced the price of ammonia-based fertilizers. Humans have selectively bred plants, animals, and organisms for over 10,000 years, but we learned recently how to genetically modify our favorite organisms in the past 100 or so years. We've learned or applied nearly all the useful techniques and technology we can for food. Food has become abundant; especially the basic staples.
Now, directly facing your concern of the prices: food has become a smaller portion of family incomes over the past 100 or more years. Also, a smaller percentage of people farm these days. Our farms are more productive, and our distribution is much more widespread. Costs in adjusted dollars has gone down, and the ease of access to abundant food is at all time highs. This doesn't mean there aren't significant problems still happening: there remains food scarcity and food insecurity in some regions of the world, especially when disasters occur (war, drought, floods, earthquakes, fires, and so on). Also, in recent times, there has been significant inflation in the US and other places in the world: hopefully, we regain a stable economy soon. A large part of our current inflation is greedflation from loosely-regulated corporations.
And to directly answer your question of [paraphrasing], "How come there's so much development in computers and IT while the development of agriculture isn't so steep?" I think this is best answered by quoting Richard Feynman from 1959, "There's plenty of room at the bottom." By this, I mean that comptuer technology is still miniaturizing. How can agriculture possibly miniaturize? I guess we can use more vertical farming techniques, but beyond that, a carrot must be the same size as a regular carrot. There's no compressing the size of a carrot. On the other hand, perhaps humans will engineer their bodies soon to be smaller or more efficient, so maybe the same size carrot feeds more people. That remains to be seen. In the meantime, computer tech and IT will continue improving and miniaturizing for the foreseeable future-even if we bump into difficult to overcome limits like the 5nm or 3nm lithography scale.
I hope I've answered things clearly. Let me know.
@@Paraselene_Tao thanks a lot! it actually does somewhat answer my question.
It is like I have this concern that the singularity theory as it is might eventually be uncredible due to this matter.
What do I mean?
The theory is a PROMISE of lot better future. But how can we reach the better future if we fail to develop on area that actually MATTERS. Like food prices.
Orange juice price has more than tripled during the past 7 years, just to mention something.
It is like, we can have cheap food, but if you want to buy something fresh and healthy like oranges, salmon or tuna, the prices aren't necessarily getting lower.
So, what if people end up having lot of "tech" but little food and other really meaningful substances, that are necessary for a good life.
Wouldn't that mean that the singularity theory is implausible and it will not bring good life for all the world but probably for a narrow elite?
@@ustedvende
I might reply to each of your concerns later, but for now, I highly recommend you read or listen to Ray Kurzweil's most recent book titled The Singularity is Nearer. I'm not finished with the book, but in chapter 4, he specifically mentions the general topic of agriculture. I think it will benefit you a lot to read chapter 4 titled Life is Getting Exponentially Better because it touches on many of your concerns.
Also, I suggest you email Ray Kurzweil your questions because there's a chance he will reply to you.
Have a great day or a good night.
Everyone should fear the day Ai takes over at scale. I’m writing my thesis right now to finish my second degree. It’s on the impact of AI in education k-12. Will change the whole landscape of how we learn and teach. I just got some certifications from coursera on AI as well. It’s gunna be a game changer in the white collar workforce as well. And if you aren’t skilled in it or have knowledge on it and how to use it more efficiently and effectively you’ll be gone.
It took me plenty of time to pick up translation skills for language in a host of different genres.
I did OK with it, but it meant hard slog, and making best use of my intelligence, and many other skills.
It was not what I trained for, so I had to adapt even as I started from scratch.
I did it.
I am - apparently - an early victim of machine learning as assignments have already faded away, without it even being clear if what texts result are adequate or not.
To the best of my knowledge we DO NOT know this, yet the content of what is written is NOT capable of being dismissed so easily, with being impossible to suggest that it does not matter at all if things are misrepresented in the plethora of texts out there.
There is already a HUGE elephant in this room.
As somebody Born Again on 28-2-21, I came to realise more strongly than before how translation was and is a gift of the Holy Spirit.
The New Testament makes that rather directly clear.
If I have that gift and yet no sphere in which to use it; then in essence something evil has already happened...
Think on...
The singularity is nearer.
There must have been an event on 14th Nov 2017at the Society of Neuroscience in Washington. At the keynote Speech Demis Hassabis said, AI is nothing else than applied brain science.
He must have spoken for around an hour when he must have said:
"First we solve the problem and understand what Intelligence (Thinking) is about.And then we solve other problems." (Indirect source from manfred Spitzer). Unfortunately I never found the video. But there is some hope that it will show up.
So the same thing goes here, just like for GTA VI:
Just don’t die.
10:02 Meanwhile Ray is getting older, his body language here maybe shows some hesitation in talking about the LEV
Hinton may be the Godfather of AI, but I think we can all agree that Ray is the God of AI. And how cool that our one true God not only dons suspenders- but THOSE suspenders 🥰
A great human being 👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿
great talk
can't believe im alive to see this
I realy put my hope in AGI to be good for this world.
Higher intelligence is always better in this world
In Ray's head... "I must make in 2030, I can't die so close to immortality"
As the song goes, 🎵 "In the year 2525..."