Just my speculation, but if Reykjanes volcano is working like it worked 800 years ago, it will go to a new phase with larger and long time span eruptions.
Yeah, I was actually thinking about that. We could now be witnessing this shift, longer time between eruptiona and the eruptiona last longer. It definitely makes some sense as the craters from the previous eruptive periods are much larger suggesting they had more time to form. Will be interesting to see
Absolutely fantastic photography! As tragic as the intrusion of lava in the town is these events are giving us the opportunity to witness first hand the magnificent beauty of the essence of our planet. Thank you so much.
Thank you for the update, interesting as always. As the magma is still accumulating, it will come out one day. The consequence of a blocked pathway is a greater risk of an eruption at an unexpected location. I hope it will move to the north 🙏, but the only certainty is, that we will learn much of the the Reykjanes systems in times to come..
Thank you very much for the update. During the last eruption, there was a large amount of "colored smoke". Maybe that collapse is what caused the change?
That's interesting. The slight explosive activity was something we hadn't seen in any eruption during the volcanic period so it may have been due to something related to that. It could've been that it just hit a spot with unusually high amounts of ground water. Still strange that it had never happened before.
Þorvaldur Þórðarson, the Icelandic vulcanologist who has often spoken publicly about the goings on with these eruptions said on an interview on Shawn Willsey's channel that the black smoke produced in the last eruption was not due to the magma making contact with ground water, but the sides of the fissure collapsing inward. This may have been speculation on his part because he did not offer any supporting evidence, but when someone like Þorvaldur Þórðarson speaks I generally respect what he is saying.
Yeah, Þorvaldur is one of our, if not the best volcanologist we have and his points are always interesting and to be respected. His explanation also sounds plausible.
With the amount and duration plus the fact it traveled/migrated along a section of the fissure, I am assuming it was a fairly large collapse. I'm also assuming more collapsed underground that we did not see the evidence of.
I think the problem is we are all trying to look for a pattern or a cycle in this volcano after seeing what looked like a pattern/cycle in those 3 eruptions. What the March 2 intrusion should teach us is there is no cycle and volcanoes are much more complicated than that. It can behave differently from what we have seen before at any moment. It might erupt tomorrow, there might be another small intrusion in 3 days, it might take another month before we see another eruption, the eruption site could shift to the crater system in the west or new magma could stop flowing into magma chamber at any moment. So many possibilities.
Yeah definitely. We have no way of predicting what the earth does currently which is a bit frustrating. Hopefully our experts will discover something that allows us to get a better idea of what goes on down there.
Thank you so much for your excellent report! Guess we just have to watch and wait and hope the next eruption does as little damage as possible. These are exciting times for volcano watchers, but we are also incredibly aware of the suffering this situation and time of uncertainty has caused. We sincerely hope that the future for the people of Iceland is a happy and prosperous one … 🥰 Greetings from Darwin, Australia …. 😁🌴🌴🌴
Vielen Dank, für die tollen Infos und Bilder. Ich bin gespannt wann es passiert und ob sich am Verhalten etwas ändert. Die Menge oder auch die Dauer Viele Grüße 😊
It is taking longer than expected, do you know what’s going on, is it building in pressure, is it blocked? What may be happening? Thank you so much for the excellent updates! ❤
There's definitely something blocking the path that lava has been taking out the chamber. So, as the time passes, more pressure will build up which will eventually result in an intrusion. The biggest uncertainty now is wether it'll intrude along the same path again or find another path.
For the big long magma intrusion I have the picture in my mind of a vice opening up on the whole length of that intrusion, making room for that amount of magma. You know, the vise stands for the two tectonic plates that are moving apart from each other under Iceland... Well and maybe the small intrusion lately was a small further opening of that "vice"... The two tectonic plates increased their distance a bit, once again... but only a little bit. But yes, the pressure must be rising... Where will it break through and when... That's the question...
I thought that perhaps magma is filling empty spaces, cracks or voids left by (possible hundreds of) years of separation of the tectonic plates. Magma won't always flow directly to the surface, it will creep through every possible gap, and maybe it has found its way to an old chamber.
Interesting thoughts. I still am quite sceptical about the cycle theory. Like in much of the earthly life there indeed are many rhythms, but for volcanic activity, is it scientifically logical to assume there are cycles?
It's definitely not perfect but our experts always pay close attention to these "trigger ranges" as they give us at least some idea, atleast during these past 4 months, where it's been in fire😂.
I'm guessing by now there's about 13 million cubic meters of magma in the magma chamber under Svartsengi. If on Saturday March 2 it went from roughly 9 million to 7.7 million cubic meters, and with an inflow rate of roughly 500,000 cubic meters per day then it should be roughly 13 million cubic meters now. If it needs 18 million cubic meters to erupt, then in about 12 days it should be ready, if not then any time between now and 12 days from now.
The magma sill has enlarged extending eastwards after the March 2nd event, that is why 10 million cubic meters is no longer enough to produce an eruption. The quakes on that date were over 4km in depth. The dike is meant to be at 3km depth. The sill has now extended east with the centre being under the SENG GPS now rather than the HS02. a satellite image should confirm my belief.
Thanks so much for the updates! So amazing to see the incredibly active nature of the land beneath you - given that here (in New England, U.S.A.), the last volcanic activity was many millions of years ago. Of course, the only reason that Iceland exists as a nation is that the volcanic activity produces NEW rock at a rate faster than the ocean and waves erode it on the coasts. 🙂One minor request though --- in your preliminary introduction, would it be possible to use some new drone footage? I've been watching your postings for months now, and though the fault scarps are awesome, I've only seen them dozens of times now. I'm certain you have more recent recorded imagery that you've gotten from here and elsewhere - it's clear you're not just sitting at home and downloading other people's work and re-marketing it as your own (which some other folks have done). Have to confess that I am, in a sick way, hoping for a truly major eruption - perhaps sited halfway from Grindavik to Keilar? 😁 Wouldn't want anyone to be injured, or any infrastructure to be damaged or destroyed, but it could be a good tourist attraction for a new eruption to produce a mountain worthy of attracting tourists! 😉 Take care, stay safe, and please keep up the outstanding contributions to our understanding of this dynamic land on which you live!
I actually just got a new drone after mine broke down a few months ago. Should've definitely gotten in way earlier 😬😂. So, there's some new footage on the way, finally. It would definitely be a sight to behold having an eruption of that caliper, I can't imagine how it would look like.
It only makes sense that it is likely that in an eruptive series of this type that it will occur with larger storage volumes over time as rock fractures expanding the storage chamber. Then as eruptions occur through the weakest point's, larger volumes erupt over longer periods of time. This continues until the deep chamber is exhausted. Then the time between eruptions still growing longer reaches a point where cooling of the chamber leads to higher viscosities, and more flow resistance, and eventually cessation. Slowly over a much period the deep chamber repressurizes as the plates slide apart and it all starts again. How big are the chambers? How developed are the fracture systems? How viscous is the lava over time? Etc... History from the last eruptive cycle is probably the best indicator. Though history only rhymes, it doesn't repeat. So this time will be no doubt different. Might this move out to sea? Might it shift westward to the next set of fractures over? Might it involve the Blue Lagoon. Again, history is like;y the best indicator. So what was the history? Last time? Time before?
This is another reason why I check the Iceland news and earthquake details several times a day. Thanks for this.
You're welcome, thanks for tuning in 😁
Thanks for including the bar graph comparing the magma volumes for each eruption/intrusion. Very helpful visual!
Glad it was helpful!
Just my speculation, but if Reykjanes volcano is working like it worked 800 years ago, it will go to a new phase with larger and long time span eruptions.
Yeah, I was actually thinking about that. We could now be witnessing this shift, longer time between eruptiona and the eruptiona last longer.
It definitely makes some sense as the craters from the previous eruptive periods are much larger suggesting they had more time to form.
Will be interesting to see
@@Hliarmenn👍
Many thanks for your updates !!
You're welcome 😁
Absolutely fantastic photography! As tragic as the intrusion of lava in the town is these events are giving us the opportunity to witness first hand the magnificent beauty of the essence of our planet.
Thank you so much.
Thank you for the update, interesting as always. As the magma is still accumulating, it will come out one day. The consequence of a blocked pathway is a greater risk of an eruption at an unexpected location. I hope it will move to the north 🙏, but the only certainty is, that we will learn much of the the Reykjanes systems in times to come..
Well said
Thank you for this very informative report, I live in Alberta Canada and I have been closely watching and reading all reports from Iceland
Ayyy, you're welcome 😁
Thank you for the updates and the beautiful images!
You're welcome 😁
Thank you very much for the update.
During the last eruption, there was a large amount of "colored smoke". Maybe that collapse is what caused the change?
That's interesting. The slight explosive activity was something we hadn't seen in any eruption during the volcanic period so it may have been due to something related to that.
It could've been that it just hit a spot with unusually high amounts of ground water. Still strange that it had never happened before.
Þorvaldur Þórðarson, the Icelandic vulcanologist who has often spoken publicly about the goings on with these eruptions said on an interview on Shawn Willsey's channel that the black smoke produced in the last eruption was not due to the magma making contact with ground water, but the sides of the fissure collapsing inward.
This may have been speculation on his part because he did not offer any supporting evidence, but when someone like Þorvaldur Þórðarson speaks I generally respect what he is saying.
Yeah, Þorvaldur is one of our, if not the best volcanologist we have and his points are always interesting and to be respected. His explanation also sounds plausible.
With the amount and duration plus the fact it traveled/migrated along a section of the fissure, I am assuming it was a fairly large collapse. I'm also assuming more collapsed underground that we did not see the evidence of.
I think the problem is we are all trying to look for a pattern or a cycle in this volcano after seeing what looked like a pattern/cycle in those 3 eruptions.
What the March 2 intrusion should teach us is there is no cycle and volcanoes are much more complicated than that. It can behave differently from what we have seen before at any moment.
It might erupt tomorrow, there might be another small intrusion in 3 days, it might take another month before we see another eruption, the eruption site could shift to the crater system in the west or new magma could stop flowing into magma chamber at any moment. So many possibilities.
Yeah definitely. We have no way of predicting what the earth does currently which is a bit frustrating. Hopefully our experts will discover something that allows us to get a better idea of what goes on down there.
Fascinating. Thank you.
You're welcome 😁
Thanks for the update
You're welcome 😁
Thank you so much for your excellent report! Guess we just have to watch and wait and hope the next eruption does as little damage as possible. These are exciting times for volcano watchers, but we are also incredibly aware of the suffering this situation and time of uncertainty has caused. We sincerely hope that the future for the people of Iceland is a happy and prosperous one … 🥰 Greetings from Darwin, Australia …. 😁🌴🌴🌴
Vielen Dank, für die tollen Infos und Bilder.
Ich bin gespannt wann es passiert und ob sich am Verhalten etwas ändert.
Die Menge oder auch die Dauer
Viele Grüße 😊
🌱🌏💚 KiaOra. Hellooooo from New Zealand Hlidarmenn!
Ayyyy, hello Amelia, thanks for tuning in!
@@Hliarmenn👋🏼
Great video, thanks.
Thank you!
Glad to have you tune in 😁
It is taking longer than expected, do you know what’s going on, is it building in pressure, is it blocked? What may be happening?
Thank you so much for the excellent updates! ❤
There's definitely something blocking the path that lava has been taking out the chamber. So, as the time passes, more pressure will build up which will eventually result in an intrusion. The biggest uncertainty now is wether it'll intrude along the same path again or find another path.
@@Hliarmenn thank you!
For the big long magma intrusion I have the picture in my mind of a vice opening up on the whole length of that intrusion, making room for that amount of magma.
You know, the vise stands for the two tectonic plates that are moving apart from each other under Iceland...
Well and maybe the small intrusion lately was a small further opening of that "vice"...
The two tectonic plates increased their distance a bit, once again... but only a little bit.
But yes, the pressure must be rising... Where will it break through and when... That's the question...
I thought that perhaps magma is filling empty spaces, cracks or voids left by (possible hundreds of) years of separation of the tectonic plates. Magma won't always flow directly to the surface, it will creep through every possible gap, and maybe it has found its way to an old chamber.
That definitely makes sense and could be why we saw that 2.8M earthquake that far south, perhaps the magma chamber has expanded all the way there.
love your videos!
Glad you like them!
Thank you- I didn’t realize it was so close to Grindivek - maybe it will find its way to the harbor?
Interesting thoughts. I still am quite sceptical about the cycle theory. Like in much of the earthly life there indeed are many rhythms, but for volcanic activity, is it scientifically logical to assume there are cycles?
You should ask GeologyHub that question. He's a geologist who does daily videos on anything volcano or geology related.
It's definitely not perfect but our experts always pay close attention to these "trigger ranges" as they give us at least some idea, atleast during these past 4 months, where it's been in fire😂.
I'm guessing by now there's about 13 million cubic meters of magma in the magma chamber under Svartsengi. If on Saturday March 2 it went from roughly 9 million to 7.7 million cubic meters, and with an inflow rate of roughly 500,000 cubic meters per day then it should be roughly 13 million cubic meters now. If it needs 18 million cubic meters to erupt, then in about 12 days it should be ready, if not then any time between now and 12 days from now.
The magma sill has enlarged extending eastwards after the March 2nd event, that is why 10 million cubic meters is no longer enough to produce an eruption. The quakes on that date were over 4km in depth. The dike is meant to be at 3km depth.
The sill has now extended east with the centre being under the SENG GPS now rather than the HS02. a satellite image should confirm my belief.
Would definitely be great to get more satellite images.
Under pressure!
Thanks so much for the updates! So amazing to see the incredibly active nature of the land beneath you - given that here (in New England, U.S.A.), the last volcanic activity was many millions of years ago. Of course, the only reason that Iceland exists as a nation is that the volcanic activity produces NEW rock at a rate faster than the ocean and waves erode it on the coasts. 🙂One minor request though --- in your preliminary introduction, would it be possible to use some new drone footage? I've been watching your postings for months now, and though the fault scarps are awesome, I've only seen them dozens of times now. I'm certain you have more recent recorded imagery that you've gotten from here and elsewhere - it's clear you're not just sitting at home and downloading other people's work and re-marketing it as your own (which some other folks have done).
Have to confess that I am, in a sick way, hoping for a truly major eruption - perhaps sited halfway from Grindavik to Keilar? 😁 Wouldn't want anyone to be injured, or any infrastructure to be damaged or destroyed, but it could be a good tourist attraction for a new eruption to produce a mountain worthy of attracting tourists! 😉
Take care, stay safe, and please keep up the outstanding contributions to our understanding of this dynamic land on which you live!
I actually just got a new drone after mine broke down a few months ago. Should've definitely gotten in way earlier 😬😂. So, there's some new footage on the way, finally.
It would definitely be a sight to behold having an eruption of that caliper, I can't imagine how it would look like.
@@Hliarmenn 😁
Could you post a link to the page that shows the land rise please?
No problem: strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/8h.html
@@Hliarmenn perfect! Thank you very much
💛💙
The Icelanders forgot to pay their magma bill. So delivery was delayed. 🤔😂😂😂
maybe the magma is under less pressure to the sill there as its going elsewhere from deeper down?
That sounds good. It could be expanding and that's why the 2.8M earthquake struck.
@@Hliarmenn i thought we'd have seen a few more eq's as there were some decent mid Atlantic & Norwegian sea eq's again, just didnt happen though
Suppose to visit Blue Lagoon etc tomorrow. Do you think i should go at a later date?
No, I think tomorrow will be great. Would definitely try to see the fresh lava if it's accessible 😉
Dont go
It only makes sense that it is likely that in an eruptive series of this type that it will occur with larger storage volumes over time as rock fractures expanding the storage chamber. Then as eruptions occur through the weakest point's, larger volumes erupt over longer periods of time. This continues until the deep chamber is exhausted. Then the time between eruptions still growing longer reaches a point where cooling of the chamber leads to higher viscosities, and more flow resistance, and eventually cessation. Slowly over a much period the deep chamber repressurizes as the plates slide apart and it all starts again.
How big are the chambers? How developed are the fracture systems? How viscous is the lava over time? Etc... History from the last eruptive cycle is probably the best indicator.
Though history only rhymes, it doesn't repeat. So this time will be no doubt different.
Might this move out to sea? Might it shift westward to the next set of fractures over? Might it involve the Blue Lagoon. Again, history is like;y the best indicator. So what was the history? Last time? Time before?
I am hoping that the next eruption does not cause too much damage to Grindavik or the Blue Lagoon. We will see soon.
Same here!
I love your accent 😊😊
Hahhaha, that's great 😁! Thanks for tuning in
So do I 🙂
I think that magma that was supposed to erupt went sideways and/or down along/down the dike.
Yeah, it seems to have created a 3km long magma dike with a volume of 1.3mil m3 that expanded, as you said, along the dike.
:) Be careful. lava is hot...
Yep, I can't forget that😬😂