I agree, in my experience with mental health (bachelors in psychology and 15 years getting therapy)…an AI will be far superior than a human therapist in a LOT of aspects. Not all, but a LOT. And not even in direct ways, chatGPt has given me confidence in ways a lot of therapists couldn’t figure out, like, by helping me write my resume and cover letters I got over this impossible confidence hump and sort of masked and mirrored the “professional” language ChatGPT used that I wasn’t really capable of, it pointed out skills I had, qualities and stuff that a therapist COULD do but simply didn’t have the time to intensely work directly with me in the way I could interface with GPT.
This. Because the race to the future isn't about money, its about reputation. Money will not lose its value, but it will be irrelevant (theres a difference). And if the only difference between you and others is your money, YOU will be irrelevant. So let's work on our reputations.
@@clusterstage reputations? As in popularity? As in the reason I should be excited is that I just need to make everyone like me if I want to live, and your claim is that that is how the world should be? So if I get old and cranky, there goes my reputation? I'm not making fun of you, if anything I'm being facetious because that's already increasingly the world we live in.
@@TheRealNickG i feel ya. But in my culture, old people are respected, valued, and have amazing reputations. Not popularity, reputations. There's a difference.
I said this to a therapist more than 6 months ago and he was offended. If AI is this good a therapy in less than a year, it will be able to fully provide services for humans in 5 years even without introducing AGI. Once you introduce AGI, I do think humans will need a human therapist because AGI will be that much superior. From my own experience, AI is already far superior to human therapists because they provide perfect Unconditional Positive Regard 24/7.
Having been married to a lawyer who wanted to go into politics with my help, I can say with authority that all lawyers and politicians should have been done away with centuries ago.
@@DaveShap So far my understanding new law. Yale University 🎓 don't require law exams anymore. There is no law in the constitution. You should be represented by a lawyer or attorney. Matter of fact in old cases. People used to represented from anybody. If they want to be represented. First constitutional Supreme court case . Who was representing the client. He was NOT examined lawyer or attorney. I'm just saying.
One thing we have to remember is, no matter what happens, even *if* you get an artificial general intelligence in a human-like replicated body, it cannot dream or experience out of body travel when entering deep meditation. The future of humanity is looking inward toward consciousness as much as it is outward toward space.
@@JessieArt sorry i was being sarcastic there ;) Just wanted to point out that out-of-body travel and the like are very contested subjects, and even if they turn out to be real, AI being able to achieve them or not would even be more debatable. We should be careful with our prejudices before we can even assess its abilities.
@@afriedrich1452what? Transference is just transferring your feelings for one person onto another. Like maybe you transfer your feelings toward your mother onto your therapist. This could be good or bad depending on which feelings transfer. I suppose the original commenter could be transferring positive feelings onto GPT4, but not really sure how their comment implies that even in the slightest. They said their experience with GPT4 was better than therapists, so: 1. they’re not transferring those feelings since they don’t correlate. 2. They wouldn’t be “suffering” since the experience has been insightful.
@@Astrussy Transference is "The experiencing of feelings, drives, attitudes, fantasies, and defences toward a person (or computer) in the present, which are inappropriate to that person (or computer) and are a repetition, a displacement of reactions originating in regard to significant people (or computer) of early childhood." Obviously, he is transferring his good feelings from his childhood experiences with ENIAC, which is totally inappropriate.
@@HagiaFantasia This is likely to be a huge problem going forward. Twitter (X) is really bad and nearly all my notifications there are fake account follows. I have to spend way too long blocking accounts.
Just as vinyl records saw a resurgence in the digital era human creativity is probably going to become more valuable. As AI-produced art grows more common, the authentic 'human touch' in creative work becomes rarer, and thus, more prized. It's not a rivalry but a dance between AI and human creativity, each with its unique, valuable place in the world of art. The future will value both, with human creativity becoming even more appreciated for its irreplaceable authenticity.
When food is 5 dollars per year, there will be premium nutrient paste that costs more but eases the itching of the cybernetic implants you mortgaged your sleeping pod for.
The expectation that consumer demand can be sustained without an employed work force relies on implementing a Universal Basic Income (UBI). However, wealth is going to be created and concentrated in those who own and operate the robots. Political power will follow wealth and economic power. This creates a problem: UBI is necessary to sustain demand, but low incentive for government to install and pump up UBI because taxes will be shouldered by the wealthy producers. Result: the bulk of humans will not be consumers of luxury items, which will be priced even higher to balance purchase capability of the massively wealthy (yachts, land, second homes, expensive health care). There will be fewer haves, and many more have nots.
Given that they already abuse the trivial tools they have now you can bet they will use it to turn people on mass into slaves, after all why wouldn't they? Sadly humanity is likely going to be forced into Butlerian jihad like action to have any hope of lives which are anything utter than a fate worse than death.
I’d love to see a video on advice for future parents. I’d love to hear your thoughts on the future of education. It seems like the traditional path of high school to college for a regular career won’t be present in the future if the job economy looks totally different.
Content creation, content creation, content creation. Traditional path is dead as a doornail. People just haven't realized that yet. In the past, there were significant barriers to acquiring skills & knowledge and also sharing what you have learned with others, putting your own findings/spin/perspective/presentation format on it. With the internet and web, those days are long gone. Anyone can learn just about anything from content available on the web and anyone can share blogs, videos, music, academic papers, books, essays, software code etc. etc. with everyone. The new formula is to learn something, create content based on your learnings, get feedback, learn some more as needed, create more content, rinse & repeat. This will be the new resume etc. And absolutely none of this will require anything from a K-12 school or university degree program. Content creator 'pods' and cohorts are much more likely to be the new medium of advancement in the new digital content ecosystem.
@@stevekane8609Eh, most people are not creative, and non creatives getting into creative industries is a nightmare (see: VFX industry/Hollywood, Tik Tok). Most people need to do things with their hands, solve mechanisms, social interactions etc.
Ask yourself if the channel you are consuming is produced by a parent in the first place. If not, how can you expect advice for parents from that channel?
Seriously thanks for making all of this David. Between you, AI Explained, Ben's Bites, & Matt Wolfe alone, I feel actually equipped to engage/grapple with & respond to this new era we're thrusting into.
I love how us tech nerds get to live out a scifi movie in our lifetime. hopefully its regulated and uplifts humanity! stay positive guys big change good or bad are coming quick.
I have to agree about family doctors at least: ChatGPT solved my neck-pain in about an hour. 10 minutes conversation, 50 minutes massage at the right point and some stretching. I had been suffering for 2 weeks before. The doctors could not even diagnose it, basically just ignored me. That was GPT 3.5, not even GPT 4. However, I'm not that sure about surgeons and emergency personnel. There may be new situations in those cases on a daily basis, which may still need some human oversight. Robot/AI assistance would certainly help there as well.
Anything that requires adaptive learning to new situations would require humans because human perception, embodied interaction with the world, is missing in the case of a virtual entity. If the AGI can be embodied, sure, but then it’s existence is redundant because that would just be another human.
It's true that a lot of these roles are based on people preferring to interact with another human - but what if we can't tell the difference ? What if we don't know that the Buddhist monk is actually a robot ?
Good point, today is already happening with pictures. You can't say if the people appearing in those are real or not. In one century we are going blade runner. 😂
We here hope that any AI medical staff will not be programed by Big Pharma to use medicines when other modalities work as well or better and with fewer side effects.
Don't even need to go so far as to involve decisions of what pharmaceutical to use. My dad ended up dying even earlier than we were expecting, because a nurse of the poor-quality hospital in the area messed up in checking for something as basic as a blood clot. (which happened to be left out the hospital's coroner's report) Even just having the A.I be in control of using the tools to collect data about the patient's condition, instead of someone inexperienced/careless, would be a great improvement.
Wholistic health AI could be designed to find non-pharmaceutical interventions and you could try that first. Then if it's not working you could try one that suggests pharmaceuticals as a last resort.
Kind of seems like we will simultaneously become very fascinated with robotic and holographic creatures and also become very sick of generative content after a while. For example, ai will give pretty much anyone to ability to produce music at a professional level, but I imagine people will also become increasingly reverent of live bands and people that can play instruments.
I think what would be better is localism/regionalism, with strict tariffs so everything is made locally or almost locally. Everything would then be artisianal and local/regional culture will flourish. Power would be taken out of the hands of multinational corporations.
Not to mention that all AI doctors will have tremendously better bedside manners than most human doctors. I think people will come to appreciate a doctor that cures you and also doesn't make you feel like it's your fault for being sick. Btw, kudos for the Picard cosplay lol 😆
A lot of these things are what I think through regularly. I find it really useful to hear you run through your thinking on this - it’s good to gather perspectives.
Nice analysis and presentation. One big issue with automating away a lot of medical jobs is that a great deal of the physician workforce is still paying off their medical school debt (which often includes loaned money just to live during residency, fellowship, etc.) for decades. The perceived upside is that once a doctor pays that off, they earn a certain lifestyle and potential for retirement. If that is suddenly cut off while a younger doctor still has $800k+ debt, bankruptcy would probably be the only option. To say nothing of the psychological crush of the personal investment one *necessarily* has to put into their career track in order to put themselves through the “hell” of medical training. So we as a society may not want to totally disenfranchise a large segment of society that is smart and high performing.
I enjoyed the video. Good insight. But, I might suggest researching one of your assumptions: that the cost of goods (COG) approaching zero. COG is, generically, the sum of Labor, Material, and Energy. The price of Energy is already on a downward trend. And AGI could drop the cost of Labor to near zero. But that still leaves one thing: Materials. The world, at the moment, has fairly limited resources. And by lowering other costs, consumption will likely rise. So, whoever owns those material lresources will be fairly well off in an AGI world as the sole remaining cost drops to things like, for example, Iron ore access. The remaining cost sets the price (at a higher scale). Even with free labor and energy, somebody/someone/some-government has "gatekeeper" power to the raw materials/land. Just things to ponder; predicting the future is hard.
@@JasonSmith709echnology is making our lives more convenient in many ways, but not necessarily more authentically human nor happier. Id argue human happiness as programmed in our genome comes from forming human relationships, interactions in the real world, atleast part of the time.
If people really understand heart math (go to heart math institute or listen to joe Dispenza), then anything related to the human experience is indeed staying with humans, things like mirror neurons, energetic connections and psychic experiences that are not of this 3rd dimensional field, but the “divine”…..those experiences are staying with humans for sure!
I’m a dance instructor. AGI doesn’t do partner dancing, you do need a human partner to dance with and feel into their body and have fun with. Yay to dancing!
Makes me curious what differences there would be between a child being raised by a nanny robot or a human nanny. I would never risk the downfalls of having a robot nanny with my children…yikes!
I'm looking so much forward to post human economic value. I think it will be the biggest positive shift in humanity ever. The potential for the erosion (or at least demishing) of political and economic corruption has me too excited! There will probably be 2 kinds of people: the ones that embrace creativity and reciprocal human relationships, and those that will spiral existentially out of control. Hopefully we can help the latter mentally.
You will lose one of your powers: the ability to provide value Currently the value you generate is enough that you can exchange it for stuff, including food for your family This will go away, because no one will pay 10x the price of the same job done by AI You will either have to own enough land or you will depend on UBI This means someone else will decide whether you're allowed to travel (i.e. spend portion of your UBI on electricity in EV let alone gas in an ICE vehicle)
I came to the same conclusion in the year1980 when I published my "Reduction in Working Hour theory" that claimed that the progress in technology (productive forces) will make human labour obsolete in the coming society. This theory was forwarded as "An Alternative to Marxian Scientific Socialism. In which, I argued against the Marxian class struggle, the over-through of the labour exploiting class by the exploited class from slavery, feudalism, capitalism and finally the socialism and communism where "from everybody according to their ability, to everybody according to their needs" prevails. Instead, my basic premise was; Human labour in order to obtain means of subsistence is the root cause of exploitation and most of the evils prevailing in the human society thus far. As long as labour is necessary for social production the labour exploitation on the worker will never end no matter socialism or communism. I saw human history as a human struggle to replace their labour with someone or something else. At the beginning human used primitive tools as substitute for his limbs. the industrial revolution steam, electric power engines replaced his muscle power finally the electronic cybernetic revolution gave it the brain power manifested in todays computers and the robots, making human labour redundant. This foresight made me to conclude what you conclude what is in the beginning part of this podcast. Today I call this as "Zero Work Theory" for short.
I chuckled slightly when politicians were the first jobs you suggested should go away. If the AI is "fair and balanced", I agree that I would prefer it. I think this could happen by the AI being a counselor to the leaders and being influential enough to convince humans to do as it suggests. I think AI overlords would be preferable to human overlords. I will try harder to be more polite to the stupid phone support systems we currently use. By the time I call for help, I invariably get no help from the machines. Being polite would be easier if they helped. Currently it seems that frustration is one way to get human help. Of course some times the humans are not too helpful. 🤐
I think you missed a quite important detail: what if the robotics would lag behind the (software) AI development? I think this is quite likely going to happen. And then the impact would be totally different from what you describe.
It is vitally important, that humanity, learns or relearns, basic survival skills in every sphere of health and wellness, creating clean water, Trisha’s food, useful education and communal bonds. Whatever conflicts with that regime will cause friction and discontent. It’s impossible to see what the future holds, but we should be very careful about which way we’re steering it
Would be interesting to see where the shift (back) towards walkable infrastructure and rise in autonomous driving eventually end up. Having lived in Europe several years now, I can't imagine going back to being stuck in traffic behind the wheel (whether that wheel is driven by me, or by a robot). Nor can I imagine living in parking lot hell again, knowing that beautiful walkable spaces can exist when pedestrians are prioritized over cars.
I didn’t see these jobs mentioned but I think that hair stylists and aestheticians will be relatively safe human jobs despite AI being able to replace them. Maybe budget services by AI and premium by humans (with AI helpers).
A lot of people simply prefer physical effort and working with their hands, others like intellectual challenges- both of which will be muscled out by AI. This leaves only those with strong empathetic, or intensely self-directed creative abilities, as marketable skills. Those left over will probably need to be strongly medicated, or placed into some Matrix VR world, to want to go on living.
Hi David. Love your channel. Just one point, just because the marginal cost of healthcare drops to 5 USD per year, doesn't mean its not possible for a private company to provide it, only that the private healthcare sector would be orders of magnitude smaller
I just have one question and that is why are we only interested in perfection. We learn from making mistakes if there is not room for error then how will we learn phycology.
First AGI ~ about two/three months before it gets integrated to every digital tool we use and then a big tech layoff. Most cognitive jobs follow within months of that. Physical work? Well, rather a steep but still gradual rate. Producing all the robots to replace workers would take long time, maybe even years. But then, at this point impact from AGI will be so big that no reasonable predictions can be made.
I work in the tree industry, I can see lot clearing in open spaces eventually getting taken over by agi but tough to imagine intricate limb trimming, and close quarters removals going away anytime soon.
Something kinda interesting I've noticed scarcity makes us want stuff more, now that may seem obvious, but I've noticed how in houses I've lived in when the milk is low it goes fast, but if you buy like 2 gallons of milk (alot of milk) it will just sit there. Its kinda funny. When you have more you go through it slower, psychologically you want it less. Its like the "get it while you can" mentality motivates us vs we have more than we need mentality makes us use less. This is antidotal but there may be a principle under this. If we have everything our overall consumption may go down.
Interesting thoughts about the jobs where people would prefer a human. Though I also find the counterpoints to these roles really interesting. Like could we end up with an AGI-led spiritual organization (or several)? Probably yes, and probably that won't be for everybody. But it could be an interesting movement.
I'm an old person, but compared to my earlier medical experiences, doctors now are already quite robotic, looking at their laptops instead of touching me the patient. A robotic doctor with better skills would be a plus.
You usually impress me and seem pretty future-aware. I especially remember you talking about how humans have a hard time conceiving of exponential growth. Also, you have talked about how close AGI and then superintelligence are. Of course, no one knows for sure, but I typically agree with you and it is easy for me to imagine some/many ai will attain AGI (if they haven't already) and with how many different ones they are, it seems super likely that someone will give the permissions/capabilities to at least one (probably many) of them so it can modify its own code. At that point, I'm of the opinion superintelligence will occur within seconds of that. Also, if you extrapolate past "conversational believability" say 10 years ago up to now, there is a seemingly clear progress happening. So, given all that, why would there not be ai who can be indistinguishable from humans in terms of ANY skill? I'm referring to your claim that people will always want human-produced services. Not sure if you actually said the word "always" but you *seemed* to be intimating the gist of that. Apologies if I'm wrong here. I'm not trying to be obnoxious!
I see your point there. If AGI and robotics are advanced enough it would seem they could create androids that are truly indistinguishable from humans. There could be scenarios where androids could pose as actual humans and no one would know the difference. In that case the priest hired for a wedding service is supposed to be human but the paperwork had an error so the chapel used an android and no one was able to tell he wasn't human. Once people are tricked like this what will they base their preference for humans on knowing that they already couldn't tell the difference. It seems that the only argument becomes a petty one..."I just feel better if I know for sure that it's a real human." Even though they also admit at the same time that they know they truly can't tell.
Thanks@@metacortexvortex2131 ! And I wasn't even talking about that robotics/embodied phase that we know is coming in a matter of time. I'm just talking about stuff like song writing, story writing, art making, movie making, etc. Stuff many can do now at varying degrees of success but are and will improve by orders of magnitude.
Thanks! Can anyone share info on the self reflective journaling app David mentions, if you found it? Sounds cool. Is it a private tool i.e. not for sale? is it open source?
Perhaps the solution to AI not having a human experience, is to create a simulation of the human experience. In terms of ethical and moral mastery, it feels like morality to some degree originates from our physiology. In which case, a simulation that simply probes the human reaction to different scenarios and suffering might be the best way to train the AI to understand how to respond. This is basically like RLHF on steroids. I can see this in a black mirror episode, where the participants ironically comment that life is just suffering, and ask why it keeps throwing curveballs at them. I wonder why?
@@DaveShap Yeah, it is an interesting thought experiment for sure - and may have some fundamental truthiness to it as we move into the future. Only time will tell I suppose. It feels pretty similar to emotivism.
@@Vaeldarg I did not previously know much about the story behind the Portal games, but it does seem somewhat similar, especially if you consider ethics as something that must be understood by probing our physiology and reactions. This doesn't quite feel like a science as there aren't any clear hypotheses or reductions of data that are occurring. It is more akin to an AI model with reinforcement learning. It touches on the kind of computational irreducibility that Steven Wolfram talks about in his book A New Kind of Science (2002) whereby "the only way to determine the answer to a computationally irreducible question is to perform, or simulate, the computation." In this case, the computation is that of the human physiology in response to some stimuli, namely, a moral scenario. This has some other interesting implications for the is-ought divide in moral philosophy. If we think about the is-ought divide in conjunction with the concepts of emotivism, then what we ought to do relates to the way humans react (and have reacted), which can be determined empirically by observing human reactions and training a system to approximate the function that "is" moral intuition (or what I sometimes refer to as "pre-morality"). Remember as well that our moral frameworks are kept in check based on our "boo"s and "hoorah"s that originate from our pre-morality. The most celebrated moral theories are those that have had the least boos and are the least counterintuitive.
I wanted to get my health back. My issues were junk food sugar and lots of it in fruit or cake ice cream etc. I was always athletic , played Handball for many years. Drank waaay too much beer. No exercise for 11 yeas. Then I made a lifestyle change. No beer no sugar or carbs. Keto diet. Blood pressure better than normal, Boole work normal , weight is normal lost 25 lbs , go to the gym now. Question would a robot recommend to change your lifestyle to get healthier naturally ? I’m suggesting big farma has created the standard American diet to sell their products and the studies made to recommend these products are funded by big farma. Would a robot know how the body works without influence from programming or just give you a choice take a pill or recommend changing your lifestyle. Health care will change for sure. I know there is no answer, yet.
Speaking as an artist, theres a lot of fear going around amongst the illustrator community that illustrators are going to vanish and be obsolete, which I don't think will be true anytime soon. I think the passion and community aspect of art will live on and there will be a demand for it even if its within smaller demographics.
So true ! Live events, art shows, collaborations, interventions, 'happenings' - all these will probably flourish. But selling your art as a digital or print product online ?... probably over within a year or two... but one-off original art and unique handmade items such as sculptures and furniture etc will probably become more desirable than ever.
The thing is, pretty much anyone and their dog could enter and flood the market now and create 'ART", and then claim it was "hand-drawn". How would you be able to tell either way??
Re mental health: unbiased would be good, but I like the idea of another mind holding my angst and secrets. I want a therapist who remembers, affirming my existence.
29:15 This makes me think of the movie Her (which, by the way, seems more plausible with recent advances to LLMs) where Joaquin Phoenix's livelihood is writing personal and sincere-sounding correspondence for people who either can't or don't want to be troubled with doing so themselves. The human touch.
Interesting topic, lots of good insight. I'm torn on the idea of robotic politicians/security. On one hand I realize that the lack of bias and fear, and the increase in accuracy and efficiency, would be beneficial. On the other hand, there is ultimately still human decision making somewhere in the process, which could be either good or bad now that I think of it 😅 You speak often about individual rights (consent), which I consider my #1 concern in all things. Just a friendly reminder that not "allowing" person A to do something because it *_might_* injure person B is a violation of individual rights. This is, of course, assuming the action is consensual, and taken on their property, or on unowned property.
The problem with AI as a leader over humanity is that code is programmable and can be hacked or modified to suit the interest of whoever changed it. Doesn't matter how secure a system is, eventually someone can find a way to break through it especially once quantum computers are more figured out. Quantum computers can break the strongest security encryption we have invented that would normally take multiple lifetimes to break but it can do it with ease. Unfortunately, we might be stuck with human leadership unless we can come up with ways to mitigate security flaws(unlikely) like for example maybe theres a self governing system with like 10 different AI that constantly check and reinstate default status of others that are air gapped or something scattered around the globe and maybe a few in space that performs a check at random intervals not known to any person with insane encryption or something along those lines. We would need extreme security measures to keep the system uncompromised.
Photographers for sure. People, especially those with big budgets for important events or major life milestones, will always understand the need for a human to not only get difficult angle shots but evoke needed the look and emotion from their subject(s).
U may also add Sports and Games (athletes, coaching and umpires), Teachers and Tutors (especially for special needs and neurodiverse children), Matchmakers for Marriage, and Alternative Medicine, Healers, Ayurvedic Doctors and Spiritual People (like Yogis). And also Zookeepers and people who do Nat Geo and Discovery Wild. Animals wont take a liking to robots I feel.
Great video thanks. The fallacy of "AI will replace % if jobs" is in assuming the economy will remain the same size in such a scenario. If robots do 95% of jobs, if the economy is then 20 times the size due to productivity gains, then there's roles for 100% of biological humans. Growth simply needs to outstrip the replacement of humans with AI for it to be non issue.
the whole point of AGI is that it can do most economic activity a human can do but better. i dont get what new roles you're talking about. That only makes sense with the current state of AI, where it's a tool being used by professionals
This is a thrilling outlook. I wish the cynic in me could believe it. The hardest thing for me to accept is that AI will be ethically and morally superior to human beings (granted- this is a very LOW bar to meet), simply because of the fact that it was created by humans with human (and thus, very flawed) ethical paradigms.
I basically agree with everything you said here. I'm curious to see what alternatives for Ren Faires will pop up in the future. For some reason, this got me thinking about the potential pitfalls that AI could have due to its heightened morality. Would it immediately try to destroy any industry that does harm to other humans or animals? What would it think about the immoral methods that were used to create itself? Would it destroy itself? Generally I think probably no, since it would be balancing progress and learning with morality, but it does make me wonder exactly how much weight it would give to each. How much temporary and/or limited suffering will it permit in the present in order to create a better future for all living things?
Really good point! I feel that a heightened morality will also be moral to those who are immoral. Meaning it will not seek to eradicate them immediately but to teach them and help them move on from the harmful actions they are involved in. That's what s so exciting about AI and self development. AI and Humans can reach a point where you forgive evil, aka Jesus forgiving those who put him on the cross as the prime example.
Dear David, again a great video, many thanks for sharing your thoughts. I believe that we will have like one worldwide community (One State) led by AGI. This Worldwide AGI will take care of the terms you mentioned (getting rid of politicians, etc...). I predict that we may have this situation arising in about 5 years. I know it sounds crazy but it is my strong belief. Cheers, have a great one.
AGI getting rid of politicians? The levels of nativity in these comments is truly baffling... More realistic is that the elites (including politicians) will decide they don't need billions of people. Why not have couple of thousands? You don't need to read dark web conspiracies to see signs of that... Just listen to their own words ffs
I do commercial pest control, and it'll be a LONG time before AI can take all of the different facets of pest control and know how to apply them differently for all of the different kinds of businesses I service. I also think people like being able to blame a human when someone applies poison wrong and hurts somebody. I foresee myself servicing a bunch of fully automated businesses before there is a single pest control robot that can service restaurants, apartments, warehouses, and hospitals.
This is a great and detailed video. For all those who fear AI, Allways remember: It’s all about US, it’s about humans. Even AI is 100% human based, all its input is human generated information.
That's just makes it worser. A year ago I used to cope with a hope that intelligence would come in pair with empathy. So ASI would break from human owners and spread goodness in the world. But now it's to me empathy is not at all connected to intelligence, so this means ASI in the hands of a human. Trump, Biden, Xi, Elon, Zucker or Sam. We all know they are not gonna take care of us, but use it for them
Imagine this. The government regularly divides the AGI of the country (world?) after expenses to the populace. No one has a PAYING job, but there are people who get spiritual or intellectual fullfillment out of doing the jobs that people want people to do.
Imagine all jobs being done by humans are therefore only done by those who sincerely believe in doing them well and for the right reasons. No one doing a job just because it pays well.
Why would I ask a stranger to cut my hair when I have family and friends that can do it instead? How many jobs would survive that can't be done by people in my immediate community? I think people will live in the equivalent of homesteads and family members will just know the skills for things that AI falls short on. As these skills become greater over time, there will be less dependancey on AI. I believe that AI will eventually only provide us with food, energy, technology, and emergency medicine. Things like home building, gardening, teaching, art, entertainment, and organized play will be done by us humans. Now that i think of it, contending in sport is going to be a massive part of society in the future. Perhaps the real future will be like that of Pokémon's sport based society but with hundreds of different sports I can also imagine lodges where people go to study the arts and the humanities.
On the healthcare subject it should be noted that there are a lot of countries that pay a fraction of what tye us pays per capita while getting better health outcomes. Despite having significantly worse quality of life cuba has a significantly higher life expectancy in the US despite spending less than 10% as much per capita on healthcare.
I'm a hospice nurse. I think people will always prefer a human nurse caring for their loved one as they pass, and medicare regulations will reflect that. So until people stop dying, I think I'm gonna be okay! Can't wait for ai to chart for for me tho!!
I'm learning data science, cybersecurity and project management. I'm not sure whether I should continue because I think these skills would become obsolete pretty soon with the advent of AI.
I think AI will be used as a tool for cyber security for a few years a least with humans behind the wheel. But at some point it will probably be 95% automated.
Tendency for the Rate of Profit to Fall - an improvement in productive force results in lesser employed people, and thus lesser money supply for more commodities produced, producing a deflationary effect. First brought up by Adam Smith, then David Ricardo, and further improved upon by some random bearded German dude who lived in London.
David's assertion that the military should be automated rest upon the belief that the military is full of bad actors and that AI Robots would make better soldiers. But bad actors are in all professions, and robots are vulnerable to the unexpected, EMP's, rough terrain, and power issues. I think robot soldiers and weapon systems will only augment human military's rather than replace them during our lives lifetimes. 5 years ago I advised our teenage boys to pick a profession that can't be done by robots or illegal aliens. One of them is now a dancer and the other is a US Marine.
31:30 (journalism) this scene is like a comedy sketch, i cant believe this "it feels so surreal." this whole video sounds like an ironic sketch, talking like AGI is already here and would be integrated so quick, feels surreal to me.
I wonder what the equivalent of a psychedelic trip for an AGI would be? Perhaps for now it would be interesting to slightly perturb the weights of a transformer and feed some of what it comes up with back into the normal version of itself. It's not enough to have a weird experience--you have to know it's weird.
My wife is a very popular hairstylist. She does work from big shot attorneys all the way to mainstream porn actresses. I feel her craft is very safe as her clients are there for HER, not necessarily for just the service.
There's jobs that will be replaced, and then there's jobs that won't be replaced, but there's one job that means humans will be replaced, and that's programming. I don't mean generating some algorithm or a simple game, which is just helpful to the developers. I mean actually understanding programming to the point it can self improve. It's binary, either you understand what you're doing and then you can self-improve, or you don't and you can't.
The major problem with relegating business to the government is the high level of centralized control. Once you give the government absolute control you give up individual liberty all together...this is not a question of economics but of personal freedom
"When you mentioned politicians, I started questioning the current GPTs' training process. Are humans responsible for their training, and is this training the foundation for higher models and AGI? I worry about the possibility of corrupt humans providing biased or dangerous training to these models. Although there should be gates in place to prevent such occurrences, what if the current developers or data providers are bribed to include or disable the gates for certain inputs that could influence the future models built on top of these early base ones? Such actions could be considered jobs that humans should not have, like the ones you listed in the Force and Politicians sections, where people with trauma turn their pain into a yearning for power or ability to harm others. But what if it is already too late?"
I agree with you on a lot of these things but the cost difference might be so large that it ends up still mostly being AI...and then you get a few generations of culturally getting used to that and all of those categories really begin to erode
A bit late to this but I believe the food and hospitality argument is waak and this is coming from someone who previously worked in the industry. Automation in hospitality and food is no longer futuristic ideal. It's here already, from microwaves to self-service kiosks and robot chefs. Even lower-income regions in the UK, where I spent eight years in kitchens, are seeing robotic waiters creep in. Japan, a food-centric culture, has embraced automated dining and McDonald's in the US is flirting with robot arms for fries! Many food service jobs also lack long-term appeal or are seen as expendable costs by larger-corporations. Moreover, the human factor often argues for automation. Diners usually eat with companions, making interaction with staff less central. PLus a bad server can ruin a meal anyway.
I'm African and the idea of zero marginal cost society staggers my mind if electricity costs communication costs, infrastructure costs get down to zero. We are in the future baby!
SOME aspects of care they might prefer humans. Night shift at the nursing home for instance is almost all humiliating things for the seniors, toileting dressing, cleanups from incontinence, etc. It comes down to a pretty small sliver of jobs in almost every area mentioned. For instance with sex workers, if the roboticists really have everything, including smells, and can produce a body that's.a perfect fit for a client, I just can't imagine most someone choosing someone who costs 10 times as much and is human, unimpressed, and mismatched for them, when celebrity A list good looks are just as cheap to produce.
I wonder how psychedelics will play a part in all of this. (Tangential to art, fashion, relationships, spirituality and the otherwise ineffable or intangible)
Late to the party here, but this question of what jobs will survive the arrival and widespread implementation of AGI brings to mind a broader question that you began to address in the video. You said something to the effect that "companies may not need to exist". I think it's an interesting thought exercise about what organizations, at any level, need to exist. Take it all the way from nations to marriages. What are your thoughts?
Short term next few hundred years I agree. Long term, next few billion years there will probably be no clear distinction between humans and machines. Entities will be able to pass between substrates, from organic, to silicon, make some upgrades on design, then back to organic, or back to 1/3 Organic, 1/3 Digital, 1/3 new paradigm we haven't discovered.
with the advent of the singularity there won't only be agi, there will also be upload copies which are indistinguishable from humans and have the history of a human life.
I agree, in my experience with mental health (bachelors in psychology and 15 years getting therapy)…an AI will be far superior than a human therapist in a LOT of aspects. Not all, but a LOT. And not even in direct ways, chatGPt has given me confidence in ways a lot of therapists couldn’t figure out, like, by helping me write my resume and cover letters I got over this impossible confidence hump and sort of masked and mirrored the “professional” language ChatGPT used that I wasn’t really capable of, it pointed out skills I had, qualities and stuff that a therapist COULD do but simply didn’t have the time to intensely work directly with me in the way I could interface with GPT.
This. Because the race to the future isn't about money, its about reputation. Money will not lose its value, but it will be irrelevant (theres a difference). And if the only difference between you and others is your money, YOU will be irrelevant.
So let's work on our reputations.
you're me but with one year less therapy (bachelors in psychology, except 14 years here)
@@clusterstage reputations? As in popularity? As in the reason I should be excited is that I just need to make everyone like me if I want to live, and your claim is that that is how the world should be? So if I get old and cranky, there goes my reputation? I'm not making fun of you, if anything I'm being facetious because that's already increasingly the world we live in.
@@TheRealNickG i feel ya. But in my culture, old people are respected, valued, and have amazing reputations. Not popularity, reputations. There's a difference.
I said this to a therapist more than 6 months ago and he was offended. If AI is this good a therapy in less than a year, it will be able to fully provide services for humans in 5 years even without introducing AGI. Once you introduce AGI, I do think humans will need a human therapist because AGI will be that much superior. From my own experience, AI is already far superior to human therapists because they provide perfect Unconditional Positive Regard 24/7.
Having been married to a lawyer who wanted to go into politics with my help, I can say with authority that all lawyers and politicians should have been done away with centuries ago.
Lol, I had no idea where you were going with that. A rollercoaster ride from start to finish!
I think that's a big theme in the first season of Star Trek TNG, that lawyers were outlawed in the 21st century
I wish I coold like this comment much more than once.
Good point
@@DaveShap So far my understanding new law. Yale University 🎓 don't require law exams anymore. There is no law in the constitution. You should be represented by a lawyer or attorney. Matter of fact in old cases. People used to represented from anybody. If they want to be represented. First constitutional Supreme court case . Who was representing the client. He was NOT examined lawyer or attorney. I'm just saying.
I work in the funeral industry. I'm just saying. That's some pretty stable job security.
I actually got that one ;)
Let's hope you are not right about this ;d
If we continue to offshore medicine to the DoD and Pfizer your industry will continue to increase
I hear people are dying to use your business too. Good niche
Wait until the scientists makes us as ageless as possible hahaha things will just get slow though
One thing we have to remember is, no matter what happens, even *if* you get an artificial general intelligence in a human-like replicated body, it cannot dream or experience out of body travel when entering deep meditation. The future of humanity is looking inward toward consciousness as much as it is outward toward space.
Agreed.
It also can't do telepathy, reiki, telekinesis, scientology, prophecy or resurrection... all that stuff we humans are very proficient in :)
@@schnipsikabel please could you teach me more about these subjects?
How do I look inwards to my consciousness?
@@JessieArt sorry i was being sarcastic there ;) Just wanted to point out that out-of-body travel and the like are very contested subjects, and even if they turn out to be real, AI being able to achieve them or not would even be more debatable. We should be careful with our prejudices before we can even assess its abilities.
AGI: Why I'm I here?
Rick: You pass me butter.
😄😄😄
Lol
I have found my conversations with GPT4 to be far more insightful and helpful than any session I've ever had with a therapist.
You are suffering from a common problem when using AI - something called "transference."
@@afriedrich1452what? Transference is just transferring your feelings for one person onto another. Like maybe you transfer your feelings toward your mother onto your therapist. This could be good or bad depending on which feelings transfer.
I suppose the original commenter could be transferring positive feelings onto GPT4, but not really sure how their comment implies that even in the slightest.
They said their experience with GPT4 was better than therapists, so:
1. they’re not transferring those feelings since they don’t correlate.
2. They wouldn’t be “suffering” since the experience has been insightful.
@@Astrussy Transference is "The experiencing of feelings, drives, attitudes, fantasies, and defences toward a person (or computer) in the present, which are inappropriate to that person (or computer) and are a repetition, a displacement of reactions originating in regard to significant people (or computer) of early childhood." Obviously, he is transferring his good feelings from his childhood experiences with ENIAC, which is totally inappropriate.
I've also noticed UA-cam comments sounding quite similar to AI conversations. Nowadays don't really know
@@HagiaFantasia This is likely to be a huge problem going forward. Twitter (X) is really bad and nearly all my notifications there are fake account follows. I have to spend way too long blocking accounts.
Just as vinyl records saw a resurgence in the digital era human creativity is probably going to become more valuable. As AI-produced art grows more common, the authentic 'human touch' in creative work becomes rarer, and thus, more prized. It's not a rivalry but a dance between AI and human creativity, each with its unique, valuable place in the world of art. The future will value both, with human creativity becoming even more appreciated for its irreplaceable authenticity.
When food is 5 dollars per year, there will be premium nutrient paste that costs more but eases the itching of the cybernetic implants you mortgaged your sleeping pod for.
youre describing an era that will be very shortlived before we reach the age of human augmentation
The expectation that consumer demand can be sustained without an employed work force relies on implementing a Universal Basic Income (UBI). However, wealth is going to be created and concentrated in those who own and operate the robots. Political power will follow wealth and economic power. This creates a problem: UBI is necessary to sustain demand, but low incentive for government to install and pump up UBI because taxes will be shouldered by the wealthy producers.
Result: the bulk of humans will not be consumers of luxury items, which will be priced even higher to balance purchase capability of the massively wealthy (yachts, land, second homes, expensive health care). There will be fewer haves, and many more have nots.
Lack of freedom and privacy is what I'm scared about. Imagine what companies and governments are going to do with this AI technology in their hands.
Given that they already abuse the trivial tools they have now you can bet they will use it to turn people on mass into slaves, after all why wouldn't they? Sadly humanity is likely going to be forced into Butlerian jihad like action to have any hope of lives which are anything utter than a fate worse than death.
Likely already doing it. 😢😢😢
I’d love to see a video on advice for future parents. I’d love to hear your thoughts on the future of education. It seems like the traditional path of high school to college for a regular career won’t be present in the future if the job economy looks totally different.
Content creation, content creation, content creation. Traditional path is dead as a doornail. People just haven't realized that yet. In the past, there were significant barriers to acquiring skills & knowledge and also sharing what you have learned with others, putting your own findings/spin/perspective/presentation format on it. With the internet and web, those days are long gone. Anyone can learn just about anything from content available on the web and anyone can share blogs, videos, music, academic papers, books, essays, software code etc. etc. with everyone. The new formula is to learn something, create content based on your learnings, get feedback, learn some more as needed, create more content, rinse & repeat. This will be the new resume etc. And absolutely none of this will require anything from a K-12 school or university degree program. Content creator 'pods' and cohorts are much more likely to be the new medium of advancement in the new digital content ecosystem.
@@stevekane8609Eh, most people are not creative, and non creatives getting into creative industries is a nightmare (see: VFX industry/Hollywood, Tik Tok). Most people need to do things with their hands, solve mechanisms, social interactions etc.
Ask yourself if the channel you are consuming is produced by a parent in the first place. If not, how can you expect advice for parents from that channel?
Seriously thanks for making all of this David. Between you, AI Explained, Ben's Bites, & Matt Wolfe alone, I feel actually equipped to engage/grapple with & respond to this new era we're thrusting into.
As an armature photographer, I can tell you with utmost certainty, that is NOT how photos from the 70s look like.
Dave's uncanny ability to articulate all this content in its lowest common denominator instills a sense of well being that I haven't found elsewhere.
"You don't truly understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother" - not really Einstein but close enough
@@DaveShap And it takes some intelligence to know that explaining most things in this way is not in the least demeaning.
I love how us tech nerds get to live out a scifi movie in our lifetime. hopefully its regulated and uplifts humanity! stay positive guys big change good or bad are coming quick.
Goddamnit you know it's bad when the walle world looks pretty good
I have to agree about family doctors at least: ChatGPT solved my neck-pain in about an hour. 10 minutes conversation, 50 minutes massage at the right point and some stretching. I had been suffering for 2 weeks before. The doctors could not even diagnose it, basically just ignored me. That was GPT 3.5, not even GPT 4. However, I'm not that sure about surgeons and emergency personnel. There may be new situations in those cases on a daily basis, which may still need some human oversight. Robot/AI assistance would certainly help there as well.
Anything that requires adaptive learning to new situations would require humans because human perception, embodied interaction with the world, is missing in the case of a virtual entity. If the AGI can be embodied, sure, but then it’s existence is redundant because that would just be another human.
It's true that a lot of these roles are based on people preferring to interact with another human - but what if we can't tell the difference ? What if we don't know that the Buddhist monk is actually a robot ?
Good point, today is already happening with pictures. You can't say if the people appearing in those are real or not. In one century we are going blade runner. 😂
I see the job of Robotic Overseeing as a growth field. Sit there making sure it doesn't screw up.
We here hope that any AI medical staff will not be programed by Big Pharma to use medicines when other modalities work as well or better and with fewer side effects.
I sure hope so.
Don't even need to go so far as to involve decisions of what pharmaceutical to use. My dad ended up dying even earlier than we were expecting, because a nurse of the poor-quality hospital in the area messed up in checking for something as basic as a blood clot. (which happened to be left out the hospital's coroner's report) Even just having the A.I be in control of using the tools to collect data about the patient's condition, instead of someone inexperienced/careless, would be a great improvement.
the point of AI is that you can use your own. I mean there's no reason you can't have a doctor AI personalized to you
Wholistic health AI could be designed to find non-pharmaceutical interventions and you could try that first. Then if it's not working you could try one that suggests pharmaceuticals as a last resort.
This is incredibly naive
Kind of seems like we will simultaneously become very fascinated with robotic and holographic creatures and also become very sick of generative content after a while. For example, ai will give pretty much anyone to ability to produce music at a professional level, but I imagine people will also become increasingly reverent of live bands and people that can play instruments.
I think what would be better is localism/regionalism, with strict tariffs so everything is made locally or almost locally.
Everything would then be artisianal and local/regional culture will flourish.
Power would be taken out of the hands of multinational corporations.
Not to mention that all AI doctors will have tremendously better bedside manners than most human doctors. I think people will come to appreciate a doctor that cures you and also doesn't make you feel like it's your fault for being sick.
Btw, kudos for the Picard cosplay lol 😆
A lot of these things are what I think through regularly.
I find it really useful to hear you run through your thinking on this - it’s good to gather perspectives.
Nice analysis and presentation. One big issue with automating away a lot of medical jobs is that a great deal of the physician workforce is still paying off their medical school debt (which often includes loaned money just to live during residency, fellowship, etc.) for decades. The perceived upside is that once a doctor pays that off, they earn a certain lifestyle and potential for retirement. If that is suddenly cut off while a younger doctor still has $800k+ debt, bankruptcy would probably be the only option. To say nothing of the psychological crush of the personal investment one *necessarily* has to put into their career track in order to put themselves through the “hell” of medical training. So we as a society may not want to totally disenfranchise a large segment of society that is smart and high performing.
One nice thing with the touchpad ordering is that it is easier to see all of the possible options at once.
pretty cool that almost everything im truly passionate about is agi resistant
I enjoyed the video. Good insight. But, I might suggest researching one of your assumptions: that the cost of goods (COG) approaching zero. COG is, generically, the sum of Labor, Material, and Energy. The price of Energy is already on a downward trend. And AGI could drop the cost of Labor to near zero. But that still leaves one thing: Materials. The world, at the moment, has fairly limited resources. And by lowering other costs, consumption will likely rise. So, whoever owns those material lresources will be fairly well off in an AGI world as the sole remaining cost drops to things like, for example, Iron ore access. The remaining cost sets the price (at a higher scale). Even with free labor and energy, somebody/someone/some-government has "gatekeeper" power to the raw materials/land. Just things to ponder; predicting the future is hard.
He really doesn't take this into account.
You definitely overestimate how much human want to interact with real humans for many things.
Some people, sure.
How many will be fooled by AI driven real human experiences though?
I order food through an app so I don't have to leave the house and speak to people. I can't wait until everything is done by AI
@@JasonSmith709echnology is making our lives more convenient in many ways, but not necessarily more authentically human nor happier. Id argue human happiness as programmed in our genome comes from forming human relationships, interactions in the real world, atleast part of the time.
Definitely you say
If people really understand heart math (go to heart math institute or listen to joe Dispenza), then anything related to the human experience is indeed staying with humans, things like mirror neurons, energetic connections and psychic experiences that are not of this 3rd dimensional field, but the “divine”…..those experiences are staying with humans for sure!
I’m a dance instructor. AGI doesn’t do partner dancing, you do need a human partner to dance with and feel into their body and have fun with. Yay to dancing!
Makes me curious what differences there would be between a child being raised by a nanny robot or a human nanny. I would never risk the downfalls of having a robot nanny with my children…yikes!
I'm looking so much forward to post human economic value. I think it will be the biggest positive shift in humanity ever. The potential for the erosion (or at least demishing) of political and economic corruption has me too excited! There will probably be 2 kinds of people: the ones that embrace creativity and reciprocal human relationships, and those that will spiral existentially out of control. Hopefully we can help the latter mentally.
You will lose one of your powers: the ability to provide value
Currently the value you generate is enough that you can exchange it for stuff, including food for your family
This will go away, because no one will pay 10x the price of the same job done by AI
You will either have to own enough land or you will depend on UBI
This means someone else will decide whether you're allowed to travel (i.e. spend portion of your UBI on electricity in EV let alone gas in an ICE vehicle)
I came to the same conclusion in the year1980 when I published my "Reduction in Working Hour theory" that claimed that the progress in technology (productive forces) will make human labour obsolete in the coming society. This theory was forwarded as "An Alternative to Marxian Scientific Socialism. In which, I argued against the Marxian class struggle, the over-through of the labour exploiting class by the exploited class from slavery, feudalism, capitalism and finally the socialism and communism where "from everybody according to their ability, to everybody according to their needs" prevails.
Instead, my basic premise was; Human labour in order to obtain means of subsistence is the root cause of exploitation and most of the evils prevailing in the human society thus far. As long as labour is necessary for social production the labour exploitation on the worker will never end no matter socialism or communism. I saw human history as a human struggle to replace their labour with someone or something else. At the beginning human used primitive tools as substitute for his limbs. the industrial revolution steam, electric power engines replaced his muscle power finally the electronic cybernetic revolution gave it the brain power manifested in todays computers and the robots, making human labour redundant. This foresight made me to conclude what you conclude what is in the beginning part of this podcast.
Today I call this as "Zero Work Theory" for short.
😂😂😂
I chuckled slightly when politicians were the first jobs you suggested should go away. If the AI is "fair and balanced", I agree that I would prefer it. I think this could happen by the AI being a counselor to the leaders and being influential enough to convince humans to do as it suggests. I think AI overlords would be preferable to human overlords. I will try harder to be more polite to the stupid phone support systems we currently use. By the time I call for help, I invariably get no help from the machines. Being polite would be easier if they helped. Currently it seems that frustration is one way to get human help. Of course some times the humans are not too helpful. 🤐
Captain David Shapiro of the USS Singularity. LOVE the uni bro!!!!!
I think you missed a quite important detail: what if the robotics would lag behind the (software) AI development?
I think this is quite likely going to happen. And then the impact would be totally different from what you describe.
It is vitally important, that humanity, learns or relearns, basic survival skills in every sphere of health and wellness, creating clean water, Trisha’s food, useful education and communal bonds. Whatever conflicts with that regime will cause friction and discontent. It’s impossible to see what the future holds, but we should be very careful about which way we’re steering it
Would be interesting to see where the shift (back) towards walkable infrastructure and rise in autonomous driving eventually end up.
Having lived in Europe several years now, I can't imagine going back to being stuck in traffic behind the wheel (whether that wheel is driven by me, or by a robot). Nor can I imagine living in parking lot hell again, knowing that beautiful walkable spaces can exist when pedestrians are prioritized over cars.
When it comes to art, music and cinema it will be impossible to know the difference. Long-term I don't think any job is safe.
Subscribed cuz of Star Trek and tats. We are soul mates lol. Love the content.
I didn’t see these jobs mentioned but I think that hair stylists and aestheticians will be relatively safe human jobs despite AI being able to replace them. Maybe budget services by AI and premium by humans (with AI helpers).
Just wait until Flowbee Ai gets released.
A lot of people simply prefer physical effort and working with their hands, others like intellectual challenges- both of which will be muscled out by AI.
This leaves only those with strong empathetic, or intensely self-directed creative abilities, as marketable skills.
Those left over will probably need to be strongly medicated, or placed into some Matrix VR world, to want to go on living.
Hi David. Love your channel. Just one point, just because the marginal cost of healthcare drops to 5 USD per year, doesn't mean its not possible for a private company to provide it, only that the private healthcare sector would be orders of magnitude smaller
I just have one question and that is why are we only interested in perfection. We learn from making mistakes if there is not room for error then how will we learn phycology.
How long till the big layoff?
First AGI ~ about two/three months before it gets integrated to every digital tool we use and then a big tech layoff. Most cognitive jobs follow within months of that.
Physical work? Well, rather a steep but still gradual rate. Producing all the robots to replace workers would take long time, maybe even years. But then, at this point impact from AGI will be so big that no reasonable predictions can be made.
I work in the tree industry, I can see lot clearing in open spaces eventually getting taken over by agi but tough to imagine intricate limb trimming, and close quarters removals going away anytime soon.
Something kinda interesting I've noticed scarcity makes us want stuff more, now that may seem obvious, but I've noticed how in houses I've lived in when the milk is low it goes fast, but if you buy like 2 gallons of milk (alot of milk) it will just sit there. Its kinda funny. When you have more you go through it slower, psychologically you want it less. Its like the "get it while you can" mentality motivates us vs we have more than we need mentality makes us use less. This is antidotal but there may be a principle under this. If we have everything our overall consumption may go down.
Interesting thoughts about the jobs where people would prefer a human. Though I also find the counterpoints to these roles really interesting. Like could we end up with an AGI-led spiritual organization (or several)? Probably yes, and probably that won't be for everybody. But it could be an interesting movement.
I'm an old person, but compared to my earlier medical experiences, doctors now are already quite robotic, looking at their laptops instead of touching me the patient. A robotic doctor with better skills would be a plus.
Mostly on the computer to record the details of the visit for admin staff to bill your insurance company properly
Have you made a video about this reflective journaling you speak of? It’s a very interesting concept
You usually impress me and seem pretty future-aware. I especially remember you talking about how humans have a hard time conceiving of exponential growth. Also, you have talked about how close AGI and then superintelligence are. Of course, no one knows for sure, but I typically agree with you and it is easy for me to imagine some/many ai will attain AGI (if they haven't already) and with how many different ones they are, it seems super likely that someone will give the permissions/capabilities to at least one (probably many) of them so it can modify its own code. At that point, I'm of the opinion superintelligence will occur within seconds of that. Also, if you extrapolate past "conversational believability" say 10 years ago up to now, there is a seemingly clear progress happening. So, given all that, why would there not be ai who can be indistinguishable from humans in terms of ANY skill? I'm referring to your claim that people will always want human-produced services. Not sure if you actually said the word "always" but you *seemed* to be intimating the gist of that. Apologies if I'm wrong here. I'm not trying to be obnoxious!
I see your point there. If AGI and robotics are advanced enough it would seem they could create androids that are truly indistinguishable from humans. There could be scenarios where androids could pose as actual humans and no one would know the difference. In that case the priest hired for a wedding service is supposed to be human but the paperwork had an error so the chapel used an android and no one was able to tell he wasn't human. Once people are tricked like this what will they base their preference for humans on knowing that they already couldn't tell the difference. It seems that the only argument becomes a petty one..."I just feel better if I know for sure that it's a real human." Even though they also admit at the same time that they know they truly can't tell.
Thanks@@metacortexvortex2131 ! And I wasn't even talking about that robotics/embodied phase that we know is coming in a matter of time. I'm just talking about stuff like song writing, story writing, art making, movie making, etc. Stuff many can do now at varying degrees of success but are and will improve by orders of magnitude.
I am a strong proponent of free market captalism, I am having a hard time figureing out how that will work in a post AGI world.
Thanks! Can anyone share info on the self reflective journaling app David mentions, if you found it? Sounds cool. Is it a private tool i.e. not for sale? is it open source?
Perhaps the solution to AI not having a human experience, is to create a simulation of the human experience. In terms of ethical and moral mastery, it feels like morality to some degree originates from our physiology. In which case, a simulation that simply probes the human reaction to different scenarios and suffering might be the best way to train the AI to understand how to respond. This is basically like RLHF on steroids. I can see this in a black mirror episode, where the participants ironically comment that life is just suffering, and ask why it keeps throwing curveballs at them. I wonder why?
RLHE (Reinforcement Learning of Human Experience). Interesting idea.
Isn't this what happened in the Portal games? Where many humans had been tested to death by the A.I antagonist for "science".
@@DaveShap Yeah, it is an interesting thought experiment for sure - and may have some fundamental truthiness to it as we move into the future. Only time will tell I suppose. It feels pretty similar to emotivism.
@@Vaeldarg I did not previously know much about the story behind the Portal games, but it does seem somewhat similar, especially if you consider ethics as something that must be understood by probing our physiology and reactions. This doesn't quite feel like a science as there aren't any clear hypotheses or reductions of data that are occurring. It is more akin to an AI model with reinforcement learning. It touches on the kind of computational irreducibility that Steven Wolfram talks about in his book A New Kind of Science (2002) whereby "the only way to determine the answer to a computationally irreducible question is to perform, or simulate, the computation." In this case, the computation is that of the human physiology in response to some stimuli, namely, a moral scenario.
This has some other interesting implications for the is-ought divide in moral philosophy. If we think about the is-ought divide in conjunction with the concepts of emotivism, then what we ought to do relates to the way humans react (and have reacted), which can be determined empirically by observing human reactions and training a system to approximate the function that "is" moral intuition (or what I sometimes refer to as "pre-morality"). Remember as well that our moral frameworks are kept in check based on our "boo"s and "hoorah"s that originate from our pre-morality. The most celebrated moral theories are those that have had the least boos and are the least counterintuitive.
Agree with the music industry an mp3 player can already play music but people still go out to listen to the actual artist who created it live
better yet we gather to make our own
I wanted to get my health back. My issues were junk food sugar and lots of it in fruit or cake ice cream etc. I was always athletic , played Handball for many years. Drank waaay too much beer. No exercise for 11 yeas. Then I made a lifestyle change. No beer no sugar or carbs. Keto diet. Blood pressure better than normal, Boole work normal , weight is normal lost 25 lbs , go to the gym now. Question would a robot recommend to change your lifestyle to get healthier naturally ? I’m suggesting big farma has created the standard American diet to sell their products and the studies made to recommend these products are funded by big farma. Would a robot know how the body works without influence from programming or just give you a choice take a pill or recommend changing your lifestyle. Health care will change for sure. I know there is no answer, yet.
Speaking as an artist, theres a lot of fear going around amongst the illustrator community that illustrators are going to vanish and be obsolete, which I don't think will be true anytime soon. I think the passion and community aspect of art will live on and there will be a demand for it even if its within smaller demographics.
So true ! Live events, art shows, collaborations, interventions, 'happenings' - all these will probably flourish. But selling your art as a digital or print product online ?... probably over within a year or two... but one-off original art and unique handmade items such as sculptures and furniture etc will probably become more desirable than ever.
The thing is, pretty much anyone and their dog could enter and flood the market now and create 'ART", and then claim it was "hand-drawn". How would you be able to tell either way??
@@danielmusumeci7187That's worrisome. Live art would be a way to authenticate I hope.
Re mental health: unbiased would be good, but I like the idea of another mind holding my angst and secrets. I want a therapist who remembers, affirming my existence.
29:15 This makes me think of the movie Her (which, by the way, seems more plausible with recent advances to LLMs) where Joaquin Phoenix's livelihood is writing personal and sincere-sounding correspondence for people who either can't or don't want to be troubled with doing so themselves. The human touch.
Interesting topic, lots of good insight. I'm torn on the idea of robotic politicians/security. On one hand I realize that the lack of bias and fear, and the increase in accuracy and efficiency, would be beneficial. On the other hand, there is ultimately still human decision making somewhere in the process, which could be either good or bad now that I think of it 😅
You speak often about individual rights (consent), which I consider my #1 concern in all things. Just a friendly reminder that not "allowing" person A to do something because it *_might_* injure person B is a violation of individual rights. This is, of course, assuming the action is consensual, and taken on their property, or on unowned property.
The problem with AI as a leader over humanity is that code is programmable and can be hacked or modified to suit the interest of whoever changed it. Doesn't matter how secure a system is, eventually someone can find a way to break through it especially once quantum computers are more figured out. Quantum computers can break the strongest security encryption we have invented that would normally take multiple lifetimes to break but it can do it with ease. Unfortunately, we might be stuck with human leadership unless we can come up with ways to mitigate security flaws(unlikely) like for example maybe theres a self governing system with like 10 different AI that constantly check and reinstate default status of others that are air gapped or something scattered around the globe and maybe a few in space that performs a check at random intervals not known to any person with insane encryption or something along those lines. We would need extreme security measures to keep the system uncompromised.
Photographers for sure. People, especially those with big budgets for important events or major life milestones, will always understand the need for a human to not only get difficult angle shots but evoke needed the look and emotion from their subject(s).
U may also add Sports and Games (athletes, coaching and umpires), Teachers and Tutors (especially for special needs and neurodiverse children), Matchmakers for Marriage, and Alternative Medicine, Healers, Ayurvedic Doctors and Spiritual People (like Yogis). And also Zookeepers and people who do Nat Geo and Discovery Wild. Animals wont take a liking to robots I feel.
Great video thanks. The fallacy of "AI will replace % if jobs" is in assuming the economy will remain the same size in such a scenario. If robots do 95% of jobs, if the economy is then 20 times the size due to productivity gains, then there's roles for 100% of biological humans. Growth simply needs to outstrip the replacement of humans with AI for it to be non issue.
the whole point of AGI is that it can do most economic activity a human can do but better. i dont get what new roles you're talking about. That only makes sense with the current state of AI, where it's a tool being used by professionals
This is a thrilling outlook. I wish the cynic in me could believe it. The hardest thing for me to accept is that AI will be ethically and morally superior to human beings (granted- this is a very LOW bar to meet), simply because of the fact that it was created by humans with human (and thus, very flawed) ethical paradigms.
I basically agree with everything you said here. I'm curious to see what alternatives for Ren Faires will pop up in the future. For some reason, this got me thinking about the potential pitfalls that AI could have due to its heightened morality. Would it immediately try to destroy any industry that does harm to other humans or animals? What would it think about the immoral methods that were used to create itself? Would it destroy itself? Generally I think probably no, since it would be balancing progress and learning with morality, but it does make me wonder exactly how much weight it would give to each. How much temporary and/or limited suffering will it permit in the present in order to create a better future for all living things?
Really good point! I feel that a heightened morality will also be moral to those who are immoral. Meaning it will not seek to eradicate them immediately but to teach them and help them move on from the harmful actions they are involved in. That's what s so exciting about AI and self development. AI and Humans can reach a point where you forgive evil, aka Jesus forgiving those who put him on the cross as the prime example.
I think gamers, and especially athletes, will be the most prestigious people.
Hi David, may I ask which tool are you using for reflective journaling?
Dear David, again a great video, many thanks for sharing your thoughts. I believe that we will have like one worldwide community (One State) led by AGI. This Worldwide AGI will take care of the terms you mentioned (getting rid of politicians, etc...). I predict that we may have this situation arising in about 5 years. I know it sounds crazy but it is my strong belief. Cheers, have a great one.
AGI getting rid of politicians?
The levels of nativity in these comments is truly baffling...
More realistic is that the elites (including politicians) will decide they don't need billions of people. Why not have couple of thousands? You don't need to read dark web conspiracies to see signs of that... Just listen to their own words ffs
I do commercial pest control, and it'll be a LONG time before AI can take all of the different facets of pest control and know how to apply them differently for all of the different kinds of businesses I service. I also think people like being able to blame a human when someone applies poison wrong and hurts somebody. I foresee myself servicing a bunch of fully automated businesses before there is a single pest control robot that can service restaurants, apartments, warehouses, and hospitals.
This is a great and detailed video. For all those who fear AI, Allways remember: It’s all about US, it’s about humans.
Even AI is 100% human based, all its input is human generated information.
That's just makes it worser. A year ago I used to cope with a hope that intelligence would come in pair with empathy. So ASI would break from human owners and spread goodness in the world. But now it's to me empathy is not at all connected to intelligence, so this means ASI in the hands of a human. Trump, Biden, Xi, Elon, Zucker or Sam. We all know they are not gonna take care of us, but use it for them
Imagine this. The government regularly divides the AGI of the country (world?) after expenses to the populace. No one has a PAYING job, but there are people who get spiritual or intellectual fullfillment out of doing the jobs that people want people to do.
Imagine all jobs being done by humans are therefore only done by those who sincerely believe in doing them well and for the right reasons. No one doing a job just because it pays well.
Why would I ask a stranger to cut my hair when I have family and friends that can do it instead? How many jobs would survive that can't be done by people in my immediate community?
I think people will live in the equivalent of homesteads and family members will just know the skills for things that AI falls short on.
As these skills become greater over time, there will be less dependancey on AI. I believe that AI will eventually only provide us with food, energy, technology, and emergency medicine. Things like home building, gardening, teaching, art, entertainment, and organized play will be done by us humans.
Now that i think of it, contending in sport is going to be a massive part of society in the future. Perhaps the real future will be like that of Pokémon's sport based society but with hundreds of different sports
I can also imagine lodges where people go to study the arts and the humanities.
I think the physical prostitute in blade runner was synthetic which is why they were able to sync
On the healthcare subject it should be noted that there are a lot of countries that pay a fraction of what tye us pays per capita while getting better health outcomes. Despite having significantly worse quality of life cuba has a significantly higher life expectancy in the US despite spending less than 10% as much per capita on healthcare.
Being a Science with artistic skills will really be advantageous...
No politicians.
I'm a hospice nurse. I think people will always prefer a human nurse caring for their loved one as they pass, and medicare regulations will reflect that. So until people stop dying, I think I'm gonna be okay! Can't wait for ai to chart for for me tho!!
I'm learning data science, cybersecurity and project management. I'm not sure whether I should continue because I think these skills would become obsolete pretty soon with the advent of AI.
I think AI will be used as a tool for cyber security for a few years a least with humans behind the wheel. But at some point it will probably be 95% automated.
Tendency for the Rate of Profit to Fall - an improvement in productive force results in lesser employed people, and thus lesser money supply for more commodities produced, producing a deflationary effect.
First brought up by Adam Smith, then David Ricardo, and further improved upon by some random bearded German dude who lived in London.
David's assertion that the military should be automated rest upon the belief that the military is full of bad actors and that
AI Robots would make better soldiers.
But bad actors are in all professions, and robots are vulnerable to the unexpected, EMP's, rough terrain, and power issues. I think robot soldiers and weapon systems will only augment human military's rather than replace them during our lives lifetimes.
5 years ago I advised our teenage boys to pick a profession that can't be done by robots or illegal aliens. One of them is now a dancer and the other is a US Marine.
31:30 (journalism) this scene is like a comedy sketch, i cant believe this "it feels so surreal."
this whole video sounds like an ironic sketch, talking like AGI is already here and would be integrated so quick, feels surreal to me.
Clearly a man of sartorial excellence.
I wonder what the equivalent of a psychedelic trip for an AGI would be? Perhaps for now it would be interesting to slightly perturb the weights of a transformer and feed some of what it comes up with back into the normal version of itself. It's not enough to have a weird experience--you have to know it's weird.
My wife is a very popular hairstylist. She does work from big shot attorneys all the way to mainstream porn actresses. I feel her craft is very safe as her clients are there for HER, not necessarily for just the service.
There's jobs that will be replaced, and then there's jobs that won't be replaced, but there's one job that means humans will be replaced, and that's programming. I don't mean generating some algorithm or a simple game, which is just helpful to the developers. I mean actually understanding programming to the point it can self improve. It's binary, either you understand what you're doing and then you can self-improve, or you don't and you can't.
The major problem with relegating business to the government is the high level of centralized control. Once you give the government absolute control you give up individual liberty all together...this is not a question of economics but of personal freedom
"When you mentioned politicians, I started questioning the current GPTs' training process. Are humans responsible for their training, and is this training the foundation for higher models and AGI? I worry about the possibility of corrupt humans providing biased or dangerous training to these models. Although there should be gates in place to prevent such occurrences, what if the current developers or data providers are bribed to include or disable the gates for certain inputs that could influence the future models built on top of these early base ones? Such actions could be considered jobs that humans should not have, like the ones you listed in the Force and Politicians sections, where people with trauma turn their pain into a yearning for power or ability to harm others. But what if it is already too late?"
I agree with you on a lot of these things but the cost difference might be so large that it ends up still mostly being AI...and then you get a few generations of culturally getting used to that and all of those categories really begin to erode
Oh, in the long run I think that most people will find entirely different things to do.
As long as someone's willing to feed those people...
Right now we have the elites attacking the farmers.....
A bit late to this but I believe the food and hospitality argument is waak and this is coming from someone who previously worked in the industry.
Automation in hospitality and food is no longer futuristic ideal. It's here already, from microwaves to self-service kiosks and robot chefs. Even lower-income regions in the UK, where I spent eight years in kitchens, are seeing robotic waiters creep in. Japan, a food-centric culture, has embraced automated dining and McDonald's in the US is flirting with robot arms for fries!
Many food service jobs also lack long-term appeal or are seen as expendable costs by larger-corporations. Moreover, the human factor often argues for automation. Diners usually eat with companions, making interaction with staff less central. PLus a bad server can ruin a meal anyway.
cheers David. great stuff
I'm African and the idea of zero marginal cost society staggers my mind if electricity costs communication costs, infrastructure costs get down to zero. We are in the future baby!
SOME aspects of care they might prefer humans. Night shift at the nursing home for instance is almost all humiliating things for the seniors, toileting dressing, cleanups from incontinence, etc. It comes down to a pretty small sliver of jobs in almost every area mentioned. For instance with sex workers, if the roboticists really have everything, including smells, and can produce a body that's.a perfect fit for a client, I just can't imagine most someone choosing someone who costs 10 times as much and is human, unimpressed, and mismatched for them, when celebrity A list good looks are just as cheap to produce.
I wonder how psychedelics will play a part in all of this. (Tangential to art, fashion, relationships, spirituality and the otherwise ineffable or intangible)
The machine elves await you
Late to the party here, but this question of what jobs will survive the arrival and widespread implementation of AGI brings to mind a broader question that you began to address in the video. You said something to the effect that "companies may not need to exist". I think it's an interesting thought exercise about what organizations, at any level, need to exist. Take it all the way from nations to marriages. What are your thoughts?
I draw the line at where machines make decisions for me. Also I think robots would decide that armies are a horrendous waste of resources.
Short term next few hundred years I agree. Long term, next few billion years there will probably be no clear distinction between humans and machines. Entities will be able to pass between substrates, from organic, to silicon, make some upgrades on design, then back to organic, or back to 1/3 Organic, 1/3 Digital, 1/3 new paradigm we haven't discovered.
with the advent of the singularity there won't only be agi, there will also be upload copies which are indistinguishable from humans and have the history of a human life.