“In practice as well as theory the society was beyond considerations of wealth or empire. The very concept of money-regarded by the civilization as a crude, over-complicated and inefficient form of rationing-was irrelevant within the society itself. Where the capacity of its means of production ubiquitously and comprehensively exceeded every reasonable (and in some cases, perhaps, unreasonable) demand its not unimaginative citizens could make. These demands were satisfied, with one exception, from within the society itself. Living space was provided in abundance, chiefly on matter-cheap O’Neill Cylinders & Stanford Tori; raw material existed in virtually inexhaustible quantities both between the stars and within stellar systems; & energy was, if anything, even more generally available, through fusion, matter-antimatter annihilation, or from stars (taken either indirectly, as radiation absorbed in space, or directly, tapped at the stellar core). Thus the society had no need to colonize, exploit or enslave.” - The Hydrogen Sonata, Ian M. Banks.
@@eldsentinel7323before the communists came. Education is only for smart people and have money. people usually go straight to work at the age of 5 years. after communism came everyone could get education up to university. regardless of wealth, ethnicity, and gender. even the dumb and crippled could pass school. many capitalists ask the communists why they send stupid and disabled people to school who will not give a return on the amount of investment given. (waste of subsidies) because for the communists it is not important. if people don't have talented, it doesn't matter whether they graduate they will still be unemployed, it doesn't matter even if they are women after graduating from university paid for by the government and only working as housewives. Something that is good for everyone does not have to be seen whether it will generate profits based on the amount of investment that is given. Free education does not make people smart or creative and make money, but free education makes everyone not stupid, open-minded, learn ethics and loyal to the nation and state. compared to people who attend private capitalist schools who only study subjects that they like and make money.(USA) and never touched subjects such as history, geography and mathematics.
David, I am 79 and have been retired for 17 years. I live on two checks totally $1,370 a month with a little rescue dog. My housing is subsidized as I'm a vet and costs $302 a month. In 2007 I ran for Mayor of San Francisco. I've run for Supervisor 5 times in different districts and School Board. Never spent dime on campaigns and friends pay my entries. My dog and I pickup trash around our block every morning and all morning Sundays. I do it for writing material as that is my love. I walk 90 minutes a day up steep hills so don't worry about being bored after 'retirement'. Just spend all of your time doing what you wanted to do in the first place anyway.
@@macrumpton Yup. Imagine Rent being what it is normally in CA for this guy? Isn't it like $1500 a month lol? Here in TEXAS it's around $1,000 - $1,200 a month.
As someone once said "the nerds shall inherit the earth", be they car nerds, gaming nerds, or boat building nerds. As 3D printing, CNC machines, etc, improve so too will our ability to make our own personalized items.
Yeah I think the idea that anyone is going to want to give up their McMansions is silly. Sure there is a small percentage of folks who desire a tiny home but that's a tiny fraction. Most live in small accomodations simply because they have no choice. Same for bunking up with others. Yeah you do it when you are poor and must do so to not starve but it's not a life most dream of. I thought the purpose of AI was to provide us a better life not cause mass downsizing. The concept of comunes like he suggests was done many times in the past. It's not a viable lifestyle for many folks.
One thing I always wanted to do with the tiny house villages is have a common area in the middle of each handfull of them. I think they're a perfect oppertunity to have a central meeting place where the residents can be a community again vs the current suburban trend of being shut up indoors and never knowing your neighbors. The common area can also have several amendities that wouldn't fit in the tiny houses, think swimming pools, rec rooms, banquet halls, gym, maybe a pub or cafe. It'll be a third place just outside your home basically.
The job giving your life "meaning" thing is odd to me. Most of us work for someone else, we give their lives meaning and enrich their lives far more than they do our lives. So UBI at least would provide time to find real meaning, making someone else a lot of money while just barely scraping by while using all your free time should in fact make you question whether your life means anything.
Why tiny houses? Why not cheap big houses? Construction cost isn't an issue, and cheap real estate is just a matter of deploying a more ecological implementation of desalination.
Thank you once again David for your excellent and thorough research I've directed quite a few friends and family towards your channel so far keep up the excellent work. :)
Honestly this was boring. If you think you will get a UBI of 2K and that's it, then you're doing it wrong. What are you going to do to earn more than that 2K, when there's no jobs around the world left you to do? Acting? Done by AI. UA-cam? Done by AI. Labor? Done by AI. Programming? Manager? CEO? CFO? All done by AI. Science? Art? Music? All freakin done by AI. Do you think when 70% of the population goes unemployed, 30% will remain? You have to rethink about UBI all over again. Heck, you have to acknowledge we won't even have UBI before we lose the concept of money all together. By the time we have UBI means we have the world ruled by AI. That means concept of money quickly goes away. Because AI will definitely not need that. And if you think you will still dictate what happens when AI is in control, well good luck. But yeah, what happens when there's no jobs and no concept of money, now that's the question. Do everyone have tiny houses? Vans? Mansions? Spots in space? Mars? Somewhere else? Do everyone live equal lives? Do actors and NBA players continue living their lives even when they don't make any new money while the others keep their status quo? Who knows? Now those are things I want addressed.
"That means concept of money quickly goes away. Because AI will definitely not need that." this. this video was not fully thought through, it thinks about ubi without considering all the other effects that AI will have on earth. the whole 2k seems laughable in a world where AI has transformed the world so much. super shortsighted
The problem with U. B. I is inflatiion/lost buying power. If everyone gets its, more currency is chasing same amount of goods. If it's given selectively, those who get it are robbing buying power from those who don't. Govt will introduce price controls, and this will create shortages. We're heading into a lose/lose game, where only a very select few will reap massive long term benefits.
This assumes production capability stays the same. The theory is production capability expands exponentially thus abundance is the result. Your result depends upon demand exceeding supply which is unlikely to be the case with production being cheap. Under our current system, yes the result of increasing wages is indeed inflation.
I am a loner who lives in the country. Even my wife is too many people sometimes. I would rather do physical work so I can maintain my lifestyle and have more "me" time. I'm keeping my 2004 Subaru and our 1972 built "used" house. City life is not for me and there are many country folk besides me. What about houses and cars that already exist?
Exactly. And who will have the money to spend on trinkets if you only get $2000 a month, unless the price of everything else drops so significantly that your services may be $5 or something low like that.
If UBI gets established, will all of us get the same amount of money? If yes, who will establish and how will be established what amount of money we will get? If no, who and based on what will decide what amount of money will be given to each individual?
It would have to be the same in order for it to be legitimate. The bureaucracy that gets added the worse. Best to keep it simple and one value for everyone and let everyone make their own choices with it (like where to live).
@@DasRaetsel So a guy who has an IQ of 140, a PhD and 10 years of experience working as a neuro surgeon will have as much money as an imbecile? I hope I will not live long enough to be part of that world.
There's a couple of ways it can be calculated. 1) Look at the cost of living for an area, and base it off of that. In the short term that would be why you wouldn't want it to be equal for everyone, as different areas cost different amounts to live in, so you'd want to balance for that until things even out. 2) You could instead take the size of the pool of UBI money, and split it equally among everyone on UBI with no questions asked. Automation tax is one way to generate the pool for UBI, and David talks about some other methods in the video. This would be the most fair when cost of living has largely evened out across the board. You could do this right off the bad at @DasRaetsel essentially suggested, but that's likely to cause lots of disruprion and mass migrations as people can no longer afford to live in certain places. But then because they're migrating to cheaper places, prices there start to shoot up and people get displaced again. Yeh it would settle down eventually, but it would cause a lot of chaos and probably death and destruction before it does.
My purpose is the long-term survival of intelligent life. I can't imagine any idea more destructive to the future of intelligent life than UBI. My own experience on the road leads to the clear conclusion that almost all homeless today are unemployable and not contributing to others or to society in any way, not because of a lack of jobs, but due to drug addiction, disability, or simply no desire to be a contribution to others. A world with UBI will simply enlarge this underclass of the non-contributing who become an ever-increasing burden on the contributing. UBI creates an ever-accelerating vicious circle of non-contribution where the children of the non-contributors never learn the habits and sense of purpose that lead to wanting to make a contribution to others and instead live in a perpetual child-like world of expectation, hedonism, selfishness, dependency and fear. Your passing point that UBI might lead to a lack of productivity and self-actualization is an understatement. Let me say in closing that UBI won't even be necessary, as any student of economics knows, since the opportunities to serve other people and society productively only increase as the cost of goods and services decrease. Spend any time in a typical household today (the 99%) and you'll observe the need and demand for services of all kinds: childcare, elder care, tutors, psychotherapy, physical therapy, fitness training, music, art, cleaning, landscaping, repairs, school teaching, work training, etc. Any one of these professions could use 10% of the adult population when people can afford it, which will be soon. So, even if 70% of the current workforce were to lose their current jobs, the remaining 30% become so much more productive that every household with at least one working member can afford all these additional services, thus putting all the previously underemployed to work serving the needs of others in productive ways, doing work which is much more satisfying as well, but only ONLY if they have not already been caught in the trap of hedonism, dependency, and laziness so that they are unable to contribute to the lives of others. UBI is not a safety net, it is a trap. David, a smart guy like you should take a moment and consider what a hell you are advocating,, and at least wait to see if I am wrong before advocating a solution without a problem. I'm available as @mrfunding on twitter.
You're wrong in your assessment. Had a job, lost said job, ended up homeless myself - and it sucked; badly. I did have some money saved up and so I self-studied for the CompTIA Security+ exam (I was already A+ and Net+ certified) - got that cert and... nothing. No hits on sending out a few hundred resumes for anything related to IT (even basic IT). Decided to get my Cisco CCNA and.. still nothing. I got an offer to interview from a defense contractor across the country, however, they would not pay me to move and only reimburse me (I didn't have the money to do so). So, to make a little bit of, well, I'd say money, but I traded my services (laptop and desktop repair at Burger King) for food. Wrote a couple of books for Kindle, etc.. It wasn't until the pandemic hit that I finally got some help and I was able to find my current WAH job. I'll probably end up homeless again though seeing how the student loan repayments will kick in again (don't get paid enough for rent and wage garnishment) which means I'll lose this job since I won't have a home from which to work out of.
While I understand and respect your perspective, there are some counterarguments to consider. Firstly, it's crucial to remember that UBI is not intended to replace work, but to provide a basic level of financial security, effectively eradicating extreme poverty. This could foster an environment where people have the freedom to pursue jobs (or lifestyles) that they are passionate about and where their skills can be better used, rather than just taking any job to survive more choice is always good. All of those jobs you mentioned can also be done more efficiently by an AI, giving people busy work for it's own sake is a great way to cause the society to stagnate, they expect 70% unemployment over the next 5-10 years, yes there will still be people working at that time but for how much longer? The assumption that UBI recipients will automatically become unproductive, dependent, and hedonistic can be challenged. Studies, such as the one in Finland where they trialed UBI, showed that the recipients continued to work. They also reported lower stress levels, better health, and higher confidence in their future prospects. This suggests that UBI could potentially lead to a healthier, happier, and even more motivated workforce (while it last) and population .
My concern is how myself and many others with large mortgages would be able to pay them on a UBI. But my head hurts thinking through the situation. Many wouldn’t be able to pay, but no one would be able to buy the house if the bank tried to sell it…. How do people move up the housing ladder if they can’t earn more money?
Ownership of any resource in an equitable society is the real discussion, WHen the WEF suggest you will own nothing and you will be happy, this is what they are actualyl referring to. IF everything belongs to everyone, but we have the ability with an abundance of fuels, resources, and time, we can spend more time in metaverses, with all the same 'trappings' of alleged luxury, and the most luxurious thing of all, time, as long as our basic maslows hierarchy of needs are satisfied.
It is true that ownership is often primarily a way to retain autonomy and privacy. When autonomy and privacy are guaranteed, ownership becomes secondary
@Andy Theriault your digital money will expire if you don't spend it where and when they want you to spend it. Government owns you, and you pay for it.
Lots of good ideas in this one. Yup, we're gonna have to make some changes to make it all work, but a lot of those could be fun and rewarding. I've made a few, probably gonna have to make a bunch more. Thanks for the video.
@@SilentScholar1023 It sounds nice but we do not live in a society that can/will move gracefully into a post-work paradigm. Ppl would end up reliant on government basic income which the government would surely use to control their behavior. Meanwhile you would have mega wealthy trillionaires directing society based on their idea of how things should be which of course would mostly only be a direction that entrenches their wealth and power.
Thank you very much for this open thinking! I deeply enjoyed it. In my perspective, everything matched so well #lovetopia approach that I had a big smile in my face and my heart 😉 Muchas gracias, buen hombre
Big fan of video and UBI in general. Although I do not think it’s an adequate “end goal” as to where we go from ai. Socialism needs to be the answer. The capitalists (owners of the means of production) will always have an incentive to undercut bargaining power, cut ubi and other social welfare to save on taxes, capture public goods through privatization, and monopolize industries. It’s time we look into both ubi as well as how AI can play a hand in central planning and economic decision making. Additionally, worker owned enterprises have a greater ability to equitably and rationally respond to automation than traditional shareholder and wage worker companies because the incentives align more easily with it.
I wholeheartedly support the implementation of Universal Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) as a crucial social policy. However, I firmly believe that in addition to UBI, we must also prioritize the provision of guaranteed housing for all individuals. It is concerning to think about the potential consequences of limited affordability, leading to people being confined to cramped micro-apartments or living in substandard trailer park-like tiny house villages. We should strive for a society where everyone has access to secure and comfortable housing that meets specific standards related to space, aesthetics, and proximity to essential facilities and public centers. When envisioning the future of housing, I consider the transformative potential of AI, robotics, 3D printing, and the exploration of eco-friendly building materials. These advancements offer us exciting opportunities to go beyond mere adequacy and create housing solutions that truly enhance the lives of individuals and communities. By combining these technological advancements with well-designed job programs aimed at constructing and maintaining housing, we can realize the vision of providing high-quality, affordable, and sustainable housing for all members of society. It is essential that we prioritize housing as a fundamental human right and work towards creating inclusive communities where individuals can thrive. By combining UBI, innovative technologies, sustainable building practices, and robust job programs, we can build a future where adequate housing is not only guaranteed but exceeds the expectations of what a home should be.
The idea of the humans becoming a race of hobbyists is pretty depressing. My hope is that we use AI to improve humans continuously physically, mentally, and emotionally. We can imagine being better and now we have the tools to make it happen. The alternative is to become bystanders watching AI improve itself, like a dog watching its master doing things it can't comprehend.
David , you are by far my favourite UA-camr atm. But have you seen Simon Reeves recent documentary on Australia ? He visits a community of Aborigines who are based near Darwin. 90% of the community are on UBI (they call it "Sit Down Money"), and unfortunately it has made the whole community spiral downwards into domestic abuse, drug and alcohol abuse etc. Its a very real indicator of how things could go
I made a video on it as well. Interestingly high numbers. I personally think it should probably start low, in general for public support purposes, but also lower by age that increases by age. And removing minimum wage. More may be possible, but the job = honor feeling is really strong. Interesting what AI may do.
One thng I would add to the UBI framework would be to incentivize education. $2000 month, with no strings attached as a start. If you can sell your skills or goods that you create to other people, great. However, whatever organization is providing the $2000 base amount should also reward time and effort spent on self-improvement. Whether that is studing university level physics or studying blacksmithing and forging. This will encourage progress and guard against societal stagnation.
Useless knowledge is instantly forgotten. The incentive would have to be real and stable. Give an edge, prestige. Like retesting and rewarding with money every single year.
You don't really get this whole ai thing do you, there will be next to no jobs in the future, if you can learn a new skill that can make money the ai will also be able to learn it except way faster and better
@@madalinradion I've spent 30 years in the open source community. People can and will spend a lot of time and effort doing things that they enjoy doing, with no need for a monetary reward. And if AI has changed society to the point where there are almost no jobs (which I agree is very likely, although the timeframe is uncertain) then it is likely that most people will have their basic needs covered somehow. And while AI might be able to do pretty much everything faster and better, there will also be a market for non-AI goods. Just as an example, if you're furnishing your new apartment, you can order a new couch from AI-Mart, and a perfectly built couch that meets your specifications will arrive the next day. But what if you've got a friend who got interested in furniture making, and since they don't need to work offers to make you a couch. It'll take longer, and won't be as perfectly constructed, or exactly what you expected. But it's hand made. If there is no cost difference, which would you pick? If there was a cost difference, how much would you tolerate?
I think your fundamentals are spot on, but you're kind of missing it, the adventitious aspects of such a society is that our commitment to creativity skyrockets, that can be in one off boutique solution, or optimizations, the general exploration of the possibility space is comparable to a singularity all by itself.. to the shrinking population sizes, I think it's important to keep in mind the advances in medicine, research into senescence and bioreactors is still in its infancy, very promising developments happening at the moment that have enormous potential to provide vastly improved healthcare to all also, there's already WAAY too many people hiking the Appalachian Trail 😆 I've heard you almost can't get a permit to hike the last leg of it anymore, it's becoming like Everest, most uncouth. maybe once vertical farming blooms we can start reclaiming farm land and sculpting more places to be in nature 🤷personally I'd love to live in a high density apartment spire in the middle of a forest
As a Swede I really think it is interesting with the concept of a Walkable City, the concept of having a non-walkable city is something outside my imagination. I really need to visit US to experience this crazy thing myself. 😂
There are lots of small towns in America with populations of less than 1000. They are very walkable with grocery stores, restaurants, parks, schools, etc. Large lots could be purchased and revamped to create the "coaster" communities you mentioned. With how spread out the current houses are, it would be possible to triple the populations without expanding the borders of the towns.
The thing is this is a starting point money type of the situation so it's not like this is all you get for the rest of your life or anything people are starting with that and getting that on a monthly basis like you would in a Monopoly game basically and if they want to try to do something with it they can it's a starting point they can go get a job they can get a place to live and then get a job they can just do whatever they need to do from the starting point and I think that's what they're trying to do here at least for this starting point until other things happen in the future which you might want to look up Robby Wells and the creative society that could be the future which is very interesting.
There doesn't seem to be an option for those who want a solitary lifestyle. I want to own large acres of woodland. Clear a spot and build a small roundhouse. Also, every winter hedge off the land as much as possible.
I've thought about the idea that when we can automate every task, what value could humans provide to the economy? It's their humanity. Their values, their preferences, their appearance (language, voice, motion patterns), everything that distinguishes humanity as a whole, individuals specifically or groups of them, from just any conceivable sentience, or from each other. And it's funny because it's already happening. It's how social media make their profits. It's how AI is trained. Human labor is providing this information, usually without or with minor compensation, but it is still something that has to be done. And as of yet, it cannot be fully automated, because simulating humans without human input is well beyond contemporary computational capabilities. And you have to keep doing this, as humanity changes, culture changes, even our bodies change.
I had lunch at work once with Stephen Wolfram. He was asked what role humans will have in the AI/robotic future. He said, _"We will be the goal setters."_ I think it all hearkens back to what John Naisbitt called it “high tech/high touch.” The technology will recede into the background and we will spend less time wrestling with it and more time doing what we, as humans, want to do. The movie "Her" gives a nice vision of this iMHO.
I want to get a tiny house, i live in soCal and housing is just a liability at this point, a luxury j can't afford. However, i want my own space, not much.
$2K USD is slicing it a little thin. I think 3K net or even 2.5K would make a difference. In the evolution of things, we may evolve into less greedy species when there is no more fear of scarcity or even death. When I was a kid 50 years ago I wanted to be rich. As an adult, the responsibilities involved with being being wealthy sound like a headache. For me to make the most living within our means seems like plenty. So even within our individual lifetimes we can go through changes and evolution.
Great overview but I think the crux is drilling down on the change over. All the hobbies in the world won't mean a thing if we can't safely transition to a post AI economy. Labor, Unemployment, UBI, Housing, transportation, and dressing social and economic stratification and the transition of wealth, taxes, social support structures ect are the absolute main issue that needs to be discussed fully and repeatedly. It literally is just as if not more critical than the alignment discussion. Keeping AI from killing us all is critical. But just as critical is keeping humans from killing each other as we face this existential transition. We need a deep and constant conversation about this most important subject.
I'm just waiting. I'm already psychologically and socially optimized for this. At 2k per month, I'd continue to work on metaverse environments to sell as NFTs. If I made somewhere between 2k-5k per year on that, I'd feel awesome about myself AND I'd be saving/investing around 21k per year. Sooo great. I'd be really happy. I'd sleep so damn well!
But automation and 3d printing should also lower housing prices, vertical farms and zero kilometer food production and distribution, also should keep food prices in check. Most crucial part right now is energy, all AIs, Robots and technology are power hungry...
I think a robot with precision vison and dexterity should be in the dentist/ dental hygienist roles. 'She/h'e' will provide top near perfect dental care all over the globe
One thing I think you may be missing is longevity. If we’re going to be living longer mortgages and car payments should be able to be stretched out to 50 yrs or more. So with that being said I would think we would be able to afford bigger houses not smaller houses. Same with cars. What do think David?
For various reasons and sheer number of requisite underlying assumptions, UBI will not work in this form. Also, never underestimate political pork barrel politics that will ruin this.
I put my son through college on a single income...thats great for a person like my grandfather. The value of the dollar was TEN TIMES what its now when first started working
A lot of the images proposed have to do with the "fashion" of us imagining 70% unemployment. For instance, the "taxi" thing I think has been leaked out by the US auto manufacturers. OK, this would work in a city. But there are still going to be rural and other needs the "taxi" thing won't meet. Are people going to have to wait half a day for a taxi in a remote area to haul something a short distance? What about work vehicles? There is not going to be a "one size fits all", the way large industries try to push on us. "Tiny houses" are also good for some. Traditionally, in the US Northeast, a "starter home" would be a row house in a city or town. These houses were originally built in walking distance to a factory or somewhere that employed a large group of people. Here we have Winters. Wintertime may be a time when outdoor activity is less, and indoor projects take place. In a tiny house, there's not much room to lay out materials to let's say paint. This is going to bring on cabin fever. Tiny houses are cute and ideal for seasonal residence. But once again, what about stuff that already exists? Are row houses going to be demolished for tiny house communities? Or will existing houses be refurbished? Also 60 years from now the population will be less than toady. Right now my wife and I live in a house about 1590 square feet. It's fine for us. We have a garage and a shed. The heating bill is a little high because we are in a windy area during Winter. Point is, many people live well within their means today. If we had between 2-3K UBI we are pretty much already there. Many things outward appearance wouldn't change drastically, at least not right away, if UBI was implemented for 70%. 70% unemployment would still be a major shock to 100% of the people.
I was tracking along until the spiritualism. Not that I don't think that the issue of meaning in today's society isn't an issue. It's possibly one of the biggest issues. And I am not necessarily apposed to, "spiritualism" in a rather soft and benign form. Ultimately, spiritualism and even religion are just facets of philosophy. Philosophy being the models we use to describe reality. So, we are just ascribing more meaning and value to topics of phycology that our current scientific material understanding to not satisfy. I think this is where metamodernism comes into play. The ability to acknowledge the idealism of the modernist movement, while at the same time holding the criticism of the postmodernism movement. For example, I think we can agree that Mark Twain was an eloquent writer. But, it is fair and even necessary to acknowledge that his depiction of black characters has aged poorly. We don't simply wave it away as a matter of its time, but, we also do not throw out the things that are valuable. We similarly, didn't reject super highways or economic automobiles, just because they were propaganda hallmarks of the Nazis. Metamodernism, lets us reconcile the cognitive dissonance of idealism in the face of countervailing evidence. So we can navigating through our past to forge a better present and future. As such, the line between, wellness and spiritualism becomes more blurred. And this line will become thinner and thinner as our scientific exploration continues. And at some point certain spiritual frameworks will no longer be attractive. But, hopefully with meta modern narratives we will have the social psychological tools to transcend the cognitive barriers and prosper. So, I am wary of just saying adopt, "some" form of spiritualism. I think it is more important to first understand what it is, and why it is valuable to do so. Not to, just surrender to it, with total blind faith. This leads to too many opportunities for negative outcomes. Personally, and socially. I of course am still developing this understanding, and it too will evolve. But, it is my current thinking.
I haven't finished the video yet, but I'd like to share my story, since I live with a kind of a basic income for the last year or so. I used to pursue a PhD in Physics, you know, accelerators and stuff. Unfortunately, I happen to be from Russia. I used to do some free work for a research institute (I'll call it INR for no reason), but then was employed for 10hr week for half a salary. Which was ~250$ at the time. To put this in context, (for a single person) in Moscow I've averaged 290$ per month for mobile internet, food and other FMCG. My housing and home internet were basically free because my uni priced the dormitory at around 15$/month. So, with a uni stipend (~150$) and some help from my parents, I managed to get by and save a little. After Russia started the war in Ukraine (again), INR was dropped from some research grants and my salary went down to 120-150$. The upside is that I never showed up at work since February 2022 and they still pay me. Bureaucracy and overall reluctance to fire a random student made it possible for me to try to export my startup (which ultimately failed) and find a temporary shelter in Tbilisi, Georgia. It made it real to leave Russia, crash land in a foreign country and unsuccessfully look for a job for over half a year without a penny of savings. I even paid the rent for my friend (which I ran with) for the first two months because exchange rates were really high. After a few tries, he found a place to hang onto. Currently, I'm averaging my expenses 150$ for rent and 120$ for food per month. INR still pays me ~110$, uni did pay ~120$ until this June (guess, I'm expelled now). If the basic income is good for anything, it's this: escaping the governments that are aggressively making you comply. For anyone wondering, my first exchange program was planned for the autumn of 2022. And yes, researchers of my grade in Germany do earn like 3800$ per month, or 950$ per hours that I worked.
One of the premises of the UBI is “no question asked”. The problem here would be to transfer your funds abroad In my case we still have Unistream working just fine. Others opt for cryptocurrencies
Great presentation. I have a question about the basics of UBI, however. It is estimated that about 50% of tax revenues collected by the government comes from workers. Another 36% from payroll taxes. I the vast majority of people are no longer 'contributing' their tax money, where do the funds come from to fund UBI?
You would have a VAT(value added tax) placed on the production of goods made via automation. Since more goods, in theory, could be made tax revenue would be good. It really depends on rather you believe money will still be a thing of course.
I think the biggest thing missing from these videos is acknowledgement that most people don't work in silos. Replacing our careers with hobbies will not be fulfilling, as humans are highly cooperative, and working together in a structured environment to achieve a common goal is rewarding and extremely meaningful. It's not (just) about status - it's burned into our DNA. A more likely future would be one in which AIs/robots and humans (who wish to) work side by side. Or at the very least the machines will give us tasks that make us feel productive and helpful, and provide secure structure and competent/compassionate leadership. Deaths of despair (suicide, drug overdose, etc) are rising at an alarming rate, and it's got nothing to do with income. I'm actually pro-UBI, I just think we're not considering how important it is for the psyche to belong to a cooperative, productive enterprise, be it a tribe or a corporation.
I don't know where you are getting any of this "burned into our DNA" and hobbies can also be carried out in a structured cooperative environment so just weird. Deaths of despair as you put it have a significant correlation with income as the most disenfranchised and unempowered in society are the most likely to commit suicide or fall to drug addiction which is shown in statistics of my own country (India) where manual labour workers and house-wives are the most common victims with farmers, students following. Maybe you are coming from a privileged background but humans don't usually work in a well structured environment for a common goal because they are completely aligned, this is the rare scenario where employees are connected to the company at a deeper level than renumeration. They do it so they have enough to sustain their way of living or elevate it. Ain't nobody working as a janitor at microsoft because they believe they are contributing to a technological innovation to change the world, mostly none of the people in large companies have any sort of significant connection or attachment to the final products they play a part in producing.
Most jobs no. I'm a custodian. I would cheer if you free me from my daily torment. There are many ways people work together to achieve goals, have you forgotten sports? Games? Hobbies? This would allow people the ability to go do the things they wish to do above the things they must do to survive. Trust me I'm not missing cleaning the mess these kids make.
Re tiny house: after lot size, water, sewer, and electricity hookup, $50,000 is reasonable in less populated states. All inclusive comes from UA-cam channels from people who built their own tiny homes.
I'm afraid your assumptions might be overestimating the psychological value provided by hobbies. People basically invest their time into something to feel better off (or at least not worse) than their neighbor or colleague. The fight is for prestige because that's how nature built us. Under UBI + AI most people are going to feel hopeless, because AI would be able to provide any goods quickly and cheaply. Except gold. No hobbies would provide value and prestige. People would do anything to get more money and live a better life, or own something made of gold. With no work what would they do?
It's ironic that AI might end up doing all the interesting work leaving humans to decend into a race of rustic craftsmen and farmers. There's this neat narrative arc in which our species ascends from simple hunter gatherers toward technological sophistication to the point where we create AGI -then slowly reverts back again to the point that we may no longer even understand the machines that come to run our world- sounds like a lot of the golden age sci fi I read as a kid. In reality I suspect that the 'useless eaters' meme may overtake this more positive outcome as those in control work out that they have absolutely no use whatsoever for the redundant millions that clutter up their world and continue to drain it's dwindling resources, even as they add very little economic value to it's future. Cue your favourite dystopian varient of 'soylent green.'
Replying to my own comment to add that I have no idea why that strike through line appeared in my text- perhaps the AI that no doubt moderates these posts objected to this part of the paragraph?
@@hi-gf5yl You assume that this growth would be willingly and equitably shared by those in power. Is there any evidence that even the current level of prosperity has been shared in this way? I don't think there is. There has always been an uneasy truce between capital and labour because those with the wealth and therefore the power recognised that they needed the great unwashed to labour on their behalf. What happens to this truce when capital realises that they no longer need most of the human labour force? Perhaps human nature has changed enough to make a utopian outcome possible- I hope so. But the more likely outcome I fear is that those who have no economic value will be gradually stripped of their rights to the point that they will at best be marginalised and desperately poor, or at worst be 'disposed of' in some way or another. Ironically the AI's may end up having more rights than the humans they displace since their contribution will be of more value to the elites who run the world.
@@paulhiggins5165 wealth redistribution is very common in Western nations. We have innumerable social programs that are funded by taxes. Even the healthcare system, while not universal in the US, has many assistance programs for the poor. It's certainly not perfect, but this is largely due to logistics and corruption, both of which can be addressed by AI. Besides all that, do you think people of the West, who are famous for their rebelliousness will simply allow themselves to be ground into such abject poverty, the likes of which can barely be found outside of a third world country? People have been mislead to believe that life is much worse than it is. There's definitely room for improvement but I think this doomer mentality comes down to negativity bias.
@@Frankiigii I think you've gone too far up your arse to see the suffering of millions on a daily basis while you type your youtube comment. At least I can recognise this and move on but you have been mislead to believe the sort of life you are witnessing around you is the truth of existence which it clearly isn't. By the very fact alone that healthcare isn't universal should be a significant alarming sign, its not a negativity bias its the reality of existence for millions of individuals and billions worldwide. Compared to how much wealth and value is being generated and enjoyed by the wealthiest in society, the rest of us might as well be living in abject poverty for most intents and purposes
Grandma still prefers a human to take care of her, yeah, but hopefully medicine will evolve up to a point in which grandma doesn't need any robot, because she reached longevity escape velocity xD
I feel like Dave is advocating for Socialism but not willing to say it, capitalism is centered around profit, the fact that these plans are people first and not profit first shows that this is not capitalism but socialism. Guys, there's nothing wrong with not wanting capitalism (aka worshiping profit) and actually care about human
It's not in theory socialism. That has more to do with who owns the means of production. In socialism it's generally the worker, communism it's the state( government), capitalism it's the owner class. Social safety net is not socialism. UBI isn't socialism. Worker owned co-ops are socialism, government run central planned industry is communism. Many democracies already provide far greater social bets than the US yet are not socialist countries. If businesses are remaining owned and operated by the owner class it's still capitalism. The owners would still profit quite handsomely. Alaska already does a form of UBI in that they distribute a portion of the oil proceeds to every Alaskan citizen annually. You get a check, just for being Alaskan that comes from charging the oil producers to drill the oil. UBI would be similar in that producers of goods would have to pay a tax(VAT) on what is produced and all citizens would qualify to benefit from it. It in no way prohibits folks from making more, not stops owners from profiting. Government isn't seizing control of production and not much changes fundamentally.
I would think that if unemployment reaches 70%, if the UBI payment is not enough, and/or housing solutions are not sufficient, then housing prices, and rental costs will crash. I believe at least in the short term as the baby boomers are a large percentage of home owners and a big chunk of voters, the government will favor saving the housing market from a complete crash. Perhaps leaning toward government purchasing of housing to provide subsidized rentals. Strange times ahead indeed.
Credits backed by people, a digital currency. X credits per person, created and given to them when they join. When someone dies the x credits that represented them need to be removed to prevent inflation so every credit in the entire system gets reduced by an equal percent until that person's x credits are removed.
Also adding to this comment, you can buy used travel trailers and full-size mobile homes for literally Pennies on the dollar, and get a redneck guy with a dually to call the travel trailer to a decent trailer park, or for a full-size used mobile home, you can pay a mover a couple Grand. This is how I got around very expensive apartment housing during my University days. Especially for travel trailers, you can slap a couple solar panels since they are getting so cheap. There are also a ton of workamping opportunities on ranches and state and national parks. So this is a very clever way to live cheaply in the US
Instead of just giving money to people, why not just get rid of money and we can use data about usage rates to make sure that there is always a sufficient amount of whatever people will need in a given area. Allowing money to exist only facilitates the hoarding of power by rich people, and they get that money by stealing it from the labor of their employees.
Are you going to do the rest of your videos in full Star Trek regalia (ref to your latest videos)? I like the message because yes... we are living in the future. We now have the tools, or are very close to having the tools that can lead to a post-capitalist society. I personally don't feel UBI is the best bet because we have to work out proper Governance in our nations, handling things like corruption, etc. before that happens. We must "get our house in order" if you will, before we can enjoy such things as a fair and balanced global subsistence minimum. Rather than UBI I'd rather go to directly for a money-less society, let all of these legacy institutions die by ignoring them. Banks, financial institutions and politicians will not help with anything besides to try to continue to hold their death grip on their position in society as it currently runs. If we have UBI before we heal all of that corruption, we will only ever end up in a society where the powerful oppress the weak. Whether they gain power through being centralized and being the organization that is supposed to hand out this "basic income", or by placing some other type of mob rule over this, unless UBI is the same as an inalienable right (for someone to mess with your subsistence would legally be like attempting to murder you)... it will be completely impossible to properly regulate. This current financial framework and bureaucracy we live in doesn't have any direct transitions to a post-capitalist world, but I think UBI done right would not include any institution who has ever taken advantage of a population of people within the capitalist framework.
I don't think parents should get added UBI for children, even if there is less of it for each child. BUT children should get a reserve which eventually matches a matured account by the age of 18, where upon they child can access that account and so afford a down payment on important stuff like housing. immigrants would have a similar system which matures over time. Similarly, people in prison would have their UBI put into a reserve, which is in part returned gradually as long as they avoid recidivism...some of this goes too to the institution they were imprisoned, both lose the gradual reward if there is recidivism. p.s. There should still be Social Security/Pensions for those who do manage to find work.
Your perspective of a dystopia is very warped and quite a sensitive one. If want to see a dystopia take a look at some of the slums that exist as a result of people having absolutely no access to any means to improve their situation.
1:20 -- Suggested UBI: $2,000/month/(USA adult) Adults in United States (per US 2020 Census Bureau): 331.4 Million (331400000) USA adults 12 months/year UBI cost/year: $2000 * 331400000 * 12 = $7953600000000/year = $7,953,600,000,000/year = $7.9536 Trillion / year Total United States Tax Revenue (per cbo.gov; [1]) in 2022: $4.9 trillion I love the idea of an UBI, but -- Where is $7.95 Trillion dollars annually going to come from? And we haven't even started in on the health care. Forbes 2023's 37th annual list of billionaires counts 2,640 billionaries, collectively controlling $12.2 trillion dollars. OK, so you could drain all of the *world's* billionaires to give a UBI to citizens of only the United States for for (12.2/7.95 =) 1.53 years, after which, all of the billionaires have been completely drained. I repeat: How is the UBI paid for?
$2000 for UBI is pretty low given the current economic climate. If your predictions are right about a 15% GDP, then it would be almost impossible for the government to lack funding for a higher UBI. If we're going to cling to this outdated capitalistic model, then people will need enough money per month to prop it up. A capitalist system collapses under it's own weight without anyone buying widgets. Also, corporations avoid taxes like the plague, so I can tell you no corporation is going to go for this. They aren't going to want to be the only ones being taxed up the @$$ while the average Joe and Jane get an UBI to globe trot. Corporations exist to make money, not provide goods or services. As long as their motive is profit, they'll do whatever they can to maximize it.
Few things for consideration. The universal bit of UBI doesn't math well, its extremely inflationary, without severe price controls biz would raise prices in line in a vicious cycle, and also people want meaningful work/opportunity, thats why some argue for a Basic Income for those who want/need it, but also a Federal Jobs Guarantee, its locally run, but Federally funded(the actual source of $). There were studies & lots of rigor run that proved this (see Levy Institute website Jobs Guarantee section). Im sure we will create all sorts of meaningful work that satisfies peoples needs, & assure people can have time without needing to work whenever thats needed/desired for them, its all possible. Another important math bit, we know that Medicare for All Insurance is supremely deflationary, it requires something like eliminating FICA tax completely. Some like Warren Mosler argue to eliminate all income tax, & pivot to a fair & truthful flexible setup. After all, Federal Taxes are not saved, nor spent, they're instantly deleted, its a drain function, EOL in the lifecycle of a $. I agree we should provide fiscal flows & econ automatic stabilizers to assure healthy econ, there are many ways & potentials for that, especially when we know the true source & capacity of Our Sovereign $. Think Star Trek future!💚💚💚 The Federal Government (per Constitution) is the source of Our Sovereign Currency, understanding how things truthfully function is essential to model correctly, if you notice the overwhelming majority of economists, talking heads, & econ media are 99.999% wrong on their models & predictions, because they clearly do not understand, or want to deal in fact. Have a chat with Warren Mosler, Stephanie Kelton et al, reality based economics is essential to get this correct, otherwise we wont have the proper debates, & thus will have far less capable policies.
Man I like the sound of this but the problem is is I don't think things are going to get cheap enough to live off of $2,000 $2,000 is just not enough to live
There is a few issues with your UBI statement and making it affordable for the government. So there will be mass deflation and a population decline.. so where is the government going to be getting their revenue from? If we have population decline why would we need tiny houses when we have all these other houses that are already built? Office building will be empty. There will be plenty of realestate. With the meaning of work and remuneration not being the same, I’m not sure if you would even need to term money. Policy driven carbon credits maybe. The UBI and housing issues will only happen or be useful during a transition period. If government just print money when then need it do they even need to worry about how much they are giving out?
23:00 Aslong ChatGPT or AI/AGI in general is not flawless in its anwsers i would prefer to be teached with books and teachers. Sofar hallucinations seems to still be an issue, so you do not only get obviously wrong answers but some that you will think are correct and then remember those which in my books is worse than not having it learned at all. If i come into a situation with educated people and i recall something that is factually wrong and would present myself like that, damn, i would die of shame. If i would only hang out with bozos looking things up on their smartphone with chatCPT, they may likely not even notice ^^. Technology can cut two ways.
Socialism is more about the workers owning the means of production and empowering themselves by democratizing the work force. The state would be controlled by workers
Some very good points but the problem you’re going to run into his cost containment of materials for anything. Food or any other activity that you plan to do is going to require some type of material which at $2000 a month most likely is not going to happen very well. Will also have to have free powder/water/gas/sanitation/internet for your basic existence if you are going to try to make any extra living income the tax rate will be incredibly high to support the redistribution system. And if you are making products to put out a co-op market The amount people will have to spend will be minimal. Living like it is a modern 1500’s community It’s going to be quite difficult. Description looks to be the same as the final result in the movie After Armageddon, I Wonder how cities like New York and London would fair
Eventually the problem with UBI in a post scarcity world will be costs will start to plummet towards 0. Money wont have much real value at that point and so capitalism itself wont be able to function. Unfortunately no matter how hard people will try to force capitalism it will eventually fail under a post-scarcity world.
Were you just pulling numbers out of the air for the UBI, or were they based on something specific. You did mention decreasing incentives for children. Which honestly makes sense. Kids are expensive, but some of those costs don't scale, or don't scale evenly with more kids. Like, getting remarried and getting a step kid doubled the grocery bill, but the electric bill only went up a couple dollars and the cable and internet bill stayed the same.
Looking at my own numbers, I currently have a multigenerational family with my wife, our two kids, and my aging parents. Combined income is about $6400 after taxes, and expenses are roughly $4000. About 65% of that is housing (plus my parents storage units of all the stuff they wouldn't get rid of when they moved in) and 2 car loans (out of 3 vehicles) + gas, car insurance, and maintenance. Of course, with 6 people, downsizing from our 2000 sq ft 4 bedroom home isn't an option, the space already feels too tight, but without my hypermiling commute, we could get rid of the 3rd car, which has the highest loan payment, and reduce our housing + transportation costs by a quarter
23:40 grandma would rather you take care of her and not a robot. This part I kind of disagree with. A lot of older people don’t want to burden their family/friends with taking care of them. If a robot could do the cooking/cleaning/care and family then could just visit and hang out - that would be the best of both worlds I think.
This time when updating zoning laws to accommodate tiny homes, walkable cities I sincerely hope they don't do it the way FDR did segregating the housing by race via redlining, walls and invasive highways dividing neighborhoods, that's not progressive nor is it humane
I won't be truly happy until the technology allows me to actually escape the confines of my meatbag body and exist entirely in virtual reality, freed entirely from conventional existenced. I have zero attachment to the human condition and can't wait to be rid of it.
Post Labor Economics for more of the macro-economic perspective: ua-cam.com/video/9yN7885s5rA/v-deo.html
“In practice as well as theory the society was beyond considerations of wealth or empire.
The very concept of money-regarded by the civilization as a crude, over-complicated and inefficient form of rationing-was irrelevant within the society itself.
Where the capacity of its means of production ubiquitously and comprehensively exceeded every reasonable (and in some cases, perhaps, unreasonable) demand its not unimaginative citizens could make.
These demands were satisfied, with one exception, from within the society itself. Living space was provided in abundance, chiefly on matter-cheap O’Neill Cylinders & Stanford Tori; raw material existed in virtually inexhaustible quantities both between the stars and within stellar systems;
& energy was, if anything, even more generally available, through fusion, matter-antimatter annihilation, or from stars (taken either indirectly, as radiation absorbed in space, or directly, tapped at the stellar core).
Thus the society had no need to colonize, exploit or enslave.”
- The Hydrogen Sonata, Ian M. Banks.
Where do you get 15% GDP growth, with 70% unemployed? Who is buying all the output, with 2K?
B2B
@@eldsentinel7323before the communists came. Education is only for smart people and have money. people usually go straight to work at the age of 5 years.
after communism came everyone could get education up to university. regardless of wealth, ethnicity, and gender. even the dumb and crippled could pass school.
many capitalists ask the communists why they send stupid and disabled people to school who will not give a return on the amount of investment given. (waste of subsidies)
because for the communists it is not important. if people don't have talented, it doesn't matter whether they graduate they will still be unemployed, it doesn't matter even if they are women after graduating from university paid for by the government and only working as housewives.
Something that is good for everyone does not have to be seen whether it will generate profits based on the amount of investment that is given.
Free education does not make people smart or creative and make money, but free education makes everyone not stupid, open-minded, learn ethics and loyal to the nation and state.
compared to people who attend private capitalist schools who only study subjects that they like and make money.(USA) and never touched subjects such as history, geography and mathematics.
Also would you be able to move and live in another cheaper country?@@DaveShap
David, I am 79 and have been retired for 17 years. I live on two checks totally $1,370 a month with a little rescue dog. My housing is subsidized as I'm a vet and costs $302 a month. In 2007 I ran for Mayor of San Francisco. I've run for Supervisor 5 times in different districts and School Board. Never spent dime on campaigns and friends pay my entries. My dog and I pickup trash around our block every morning and all morning Sundays. I do it for writing material as that is my love. I walk 90 minutes a day up steep hills so don't worry about being bored after 'retirement'. Just spend all of your time doing what you wanted to do in the first place anyway.
Love this comment.
Im guessing having a good life on a fixed income is a lot easier with rent at $302/mo.
@@macrumpton Yup. Imagine Rent being what it is normally in CA for this guy? Isn't it like $1500 a month lol? Here in TEXAS it's around $1,000 - $1,200 a month.
We need to start a ai apocalypse dating website or something cuz it’s really hard to find someone who cares about this stuff lol
lol
Holy crap this is a genius idea
@@sinnwalker I'm okay with that personally. I've actually found chat bots rather interesting at times.
Japan is doing this right now. Using AI to get people to find a romantic companion.
Humans evolve.....ways of living evolve. This could be in America 🇺🇸 furure.
As someone once said "the nerds shall inherit the earth", be they car nerds, gaming nerds, or boat building nerds. As 3D printing, CNC machines, etc, improve so too will our ability to make our own personalized items.
I would rather die than live with roommates again or in a pod or van.
with UBI you could move to some small town and have place for yourself. it would stop towns from becoming ghost towns.
Yeah I think the idea that anyone is going to want to give up their McMansions is silly. Sure there is a small percentage of folks who desire a tiny home but that's a tiny fraction. Most live in small accomodations simply because they have no choice. Same for bunking up with others. Yeah you do it when you are poor and must do so to not starve but it's not a life most dream of. I thought the purpose of AI was to provide us a better life not cause mass downsizing. The concept of comunes like he suggests was done many times in the past. It's not a viable lifestyle for many folks.
One thing I always wanted to do with the tiny house villages is have a common area in the middle of each handfull of them. I think they're a perfect oppertunity to have a central meeting place where the residents can be a community again vs the current suburban trend of being shut up indoors and never knowing your neighbors. The common area can also have several amendities that wouldn't fit in the tiny houses, think swimming pools, rec rooms, banquet halls, gym, maybe a pub or cafe. It'll be a third place just outside your home basically.
The job giving your life "meaning" thing is odd to me. Most of us work for someone else, we give their lives meaning and enrich their lives far more than they do our lives. So UBI at least would provide time to find real meaning, making someone else a lot of money while just barely scraping by while using all your free time should in fact make you question whether your life means anything.
exactly, what's your favorite art, novel, song or movie vs what's your favorite excel spreadsheet?
Why tiny houses? Why not cheap big houses? Construction cost isn't an issue, and cheap real estate is just a matter of deploying a more ecological implementation of desalination.
The government (govern-mind) never cared about us ...they have ONLY ONE PLAN and nothing else
If I have to live in a tiny house due to losing my job to AI, I'm going to be pissed off, lol.
why are we talking about sharing tiny houses and living in boxes to save money if AI causes production to skyrocket?
They already have tiny home sub division in Dallas because regular size houses got too expensive.
Thank you once again David for your excellent and thorough research I've directed quite a few friends and family towards your channel so far keep up the excellent work. :)
Honestly this was boring.
If you think you will get a UBI of 2K and that's it, then you're doing it wrong. What are you going to do to earn more than that 2K, when there's no jobs around the world left you to do? Acting? Done by AI. UA-cam? Done by AI. Labor? Done by AI. Programming? Manager? CEO? CFO? All done by AI. Science? Art? Music? All freakin done by AI. Do you think when 70% of the population goes unemployed, 30% will remain? You have to rethink about UBI all over again. Heck, you have to acknowledge we won't even have UBI before we lose the concept of money all together. By the time we have UBI means we have the world ruled by AI. That means concept of money quickly goes away. Because AI will definitely not need that. And if you think you will still dictate what happens when AI is in control, well good luck. But yeah, what happens when there's no jobs and no concept of money, now that's the question. Do everyone have tiny houses? Vans? Mansions? Spots in space? Mars? Somewhere else? Do everyone live equal lives? Do actors and NBA players continue living their lives even when they don't make any new money while the others keep their status quo? Who knows? Now those are things I want addressed.
"That means concept of money quickly goes away. Because AI will definitely not need that."
this. this video was not fully thought through, it thinks about ubi without considering all the other effects that AI will have on earth. the whole 2k seems laughable in a world where AI has transformed the world so much. super shortsighted
The problem with U. B. I is inflatiion/lost buying power. If everyone gets its, more currency is chasing same amount of goods. If it's given selectively, those who get it are robbing buying power from those who don't. Govt will introduce price controls, and this will create shortages. We're heading into a lose/lose game, where only a very select few will reap massive long term benefits.
This assumes production capability stays the same. The theory is production capability expands exponentially thus abundance is the result. Your result depends upon demand exceeding supply which is unlikely to be the case with production being cheap. Under our current system, yes the result of increasing wages is indeed inflation.
I love your videos man I hope everyone watches them!
Also just wondering, do you think there will be any need for entrepreneurship in a post-AGI world? Will it look the same? Different?
I think that human initiative will always have value. I don't think it will look the same, though
I am a loner who lives in the country. Even my wife is too many people sometimes. I would rather do physical work so I can maintain my lifestyle and have more "me" time. I'm keeping my 2004 Subaru and our 1972 built "used" house. City life is not for me and there are many country folk besides me. What about houses and cars that already exist?
Montreal too is walkable, no need for a car. That is if you like walking on ice and snow
This is wonderful.
¡Gracias!
Where do you put handmade trinkets or furniture if you live in a tiny house?
Exactly. And who will have the money to spend on trinkets if you only get $2000 a month, unless the price of everything else drops so significantly that your services may be $5 or something low like that.
If UBI gets established, will all of us get the same amount of money? If yes, who will establish and how will be established what amount of money we will get? If no, who and based on what will decide what amount of money will be given to each individual?
It would have to be the same in order for it to be legitimate. The bureaucracy that gets added the worse. Best to keep it simple and one value for everyone and let everyone make their own choices with it (like where to live).
@@DasRaetsel So a guy who has an IQ of 140, a PhD and 10 years of experience working as a neuro surgeon will have as much money as an imbecile? I hope I will not live long enough to be part of that world.
There's a couple of ways it can be calculated. 1) Look at the cost of living for an area, and base it off of that. In the short term that would be why you wouldn't want it to be equal for everyone, as different areas cost different amounts to live in, so you'd want to balance for that until things even out. 2) You could instead take the size of the pool of UBI money, and split it equally among everyone on UBI with no questions asked. Automation tax is one way to generate the pool for UBI, and David talks about some other methods in the video. This would be the most fair when cost of living has largely evened out across the board. You could do this right off the bad at @DasRaetsel essentially suggested, but that's likely to cause lots of disruprion and mass migrations as people can no longer afford to live in certain places. But then because they're migrating to cheaper places, prices there start to shoot up and people get displaced again. Yeh it would settle down eventually, but it would cause a lot of chaos and probably death and destruction before it does.
Everyone living with others sounds like the makings of gangs of New York.
What rules are likely related to starting a business while receiving UBI. ?
I suspect it would be highly encouraged. If you can spot an opportunity to create market value, go for it.
My purpose is the long-term survival of intelligent life. I can't imagine any idea more destructive to the future of intelligent life than UBI. My own experience on the road leads to the clear conclusion that almost all homeless today are unemployable and not contributing to others or to society in any way, not because of a lack of jobs, but due to drug addiction, disability, or simply no desire to be a contribution to others. A world with UBI will simply enlarge this underclass of the non-contributing who become an ever-increasing burden on the contributing. UBI creates an ever-accelerating vicious circle of non-contribution where the children of the non-contributors never learn the habits and sense of purpose that lead to wanting to make a contribution to others and instead live in a perpetual child-like world of expectation, hedonism, selfishness, dependency and fear. Your passing point that UBI might lead to a lack of productivity and self-actualization is an understatement. Let me say in closing that UBI won't even be necessary, as any student of economics knows, since the opportunities to serve other people and society productively only increase as the cost of goods and services decrease. Spend any time in a typical household today (the 99%) and you'll observe the need and demand for services of all kinds: childcare, elder care, tutors, psychotherapy, physical therapy, fitness training, music, art, cleaning, landscaping, repairs, school teaching, work training, etc. Any one of these professions could use 10% of the adult population when people can afford it, which will be soon. So, even if 70% of the current workforce were to lose their current jobs, the remaining 30% become so much more productive that every household with at least one working member can afford all these additional services, thus putting all the previously underemployed to work serving the needs of others in productive ways, doing work which is much more satisfying as well, but only ONLY if they have not already been caught in the trap of hedonism, dependency, and laziness so that they are unable to contribute to the lives of others. UBI is not a safety net, it is a trap. David, a smart guy like you should take a moment and consider what a hell you are advocating,, and at least wait to see if I am wrong before advocating a solution without a problem. I'm available as @mrfunding on twitter.
You're wrong in your assessment. Had a job, lost said job, ended up homeless myself - and it sucked; badly. I did have some money saved up and so I self-studied for the CompTIA Security+ exam (I was already A+ and Net+ certified) - got that cert and... nothing. No hits on sending out a few hundred resumes for anything related to IT (even basic IT). Decided to get my Cisco CCNA and.. still nothing. I got an offer to interview from a defense contractor across the country, however, they would not pay me to move and only reimburse me (I didn't have the money to do so). So, to make a little bit of, well, I'd say money, but I traded my services (laptop and desktop repair at Burger King) for food. Wrote a couple of books for Kindle, etc.. It wasn't until the pandemic hit that I finally got some help and I was able to find my current WAH job. I'll probably end up homeless again though seeing how the student loan repayments will kick in again (don't get paid enough for rent and wage garnishment) which means I'll lose this job since I won't have a home from which to work out of.
While I understand and respect your perspective, there are some counterarguments to consider. Firstly, it's crucial to remember that UBI is not intended to replace work, but to provide a basic level of financial security, effectively eradicating extreme poverty. This could foster an environment where people have the freedom to pursue jobs (or lifestyles) that they are passionate about and where their skills can be better used, rather than just taking any job to survive more choice is always good.
All of those jobs you mentioned can also be done more efficiently by an AI, giving people busy work for it's own sake is a great way to cause the society to stagnate, they expect 70% unemployment over the next 5-10 years, yes there will still be people working at that time but for how much longer?
The assumption that UBI recipients will automatically become unproductive, dependent, and hedonistic can be challenged. Studies, such as the one in Finland where they trialed UBI, showed that the recipients continued to work. They also reported lower stress levels, better health, and higher confidence in their future prospects. This suggests that UBI could potentially lead to a healthier, happier, and even more motivated workforce (while it last) and population
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My concern is how myself and many others with large mortgages would be able to pay them on a UBI. But my head hurts thinking through the situation. Many wouldn’t be able to pay, but no one would be able to buy the house if the bank tried to sell it….
How do people move up the housing ladder if they can’t earn more money?
what keeps you from earning more money or value? would being resourceful be illegal under UBI?
@@andytheriault9383 No, but AI will be better than you at anything and everything, no matter how hard you try or how resourceful you are.
Ownership of any resource in an equitable society is the real discussion, WHen the WEF suggest you will own nothing and you will be happy, this is what they are actualyl referring to. IF everything belongs to everyone, but we have the ability with an abundance of fuels, resources, and time, we can spend more time in metaverses, with all the same 'trappings' of alleged luxury, and the most luxurious thing of all, time, as long as our basic maslows hierarchy of needs are satisfied.
It is true that ownership is often primarily a way to retain autonomy and privacy. When autonomy and privacy are guaranteed, ownership becomes secondary
@Andy Theriault your digital money will expire if you don't spend it where and when they want you to spend it. Government owns you, and you pay for it.
Lots of good ideas in this one. Yup, we're gonna have to make some changes to make it all work, but a lot of those could be fun and rewarding. I've made a few, probably gonna have to make a bunch more. Thanks for the video.
This sounds incredibly dystopian. The assumptions are quite ambitious as well.
dystopian? What do you mean?
Not sure you understand the idea of a dystopia.
@@SilentScholar1023 It sounds nice but we do not live in a society that can/will move gracefully into a post-work paradigm. Ppl would end up reliant on government basic income which the government would surely use to control their behavior.
Meanwhile you would have mega wealthy trillionaires directing society based on their idea of how things should be which of course would mostly only be a direction that entrenches their wealth and power.
Thank you very much for this open thinking! I deeply enjoyed it. In my perspective, everything matched so well #lovetopia approach that I had a big smile in my face and my heart 😉 Muchas gracias, buen hombre
Big fan of video and UBI in general. Although I do not think it’s an adequate “end goal” as to where we go from ai. Socialism needs to be the answer. The capitalists (owners of the means of production) will always have an incentive to undercut bargaining power, cut ubi and other social welfare to save on taxes, capture public goods through privatization, and monopolize industries. It’s time we look into both ubi as well as how AI can play a hand in central planning and economic decision making. Additionally, worker owned enterprises have a greater ability to equitably and rationally respond to automation than traditional shareholder and wage worker companies because the incentives align more easily with it.
I wholeheartedly support the implementation of Universal Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) as a crucial social policy. However, I firmly believe that in addition to UBI, we must also prioritize the provision of guaranteed housing for all individuals. It is concerning to think about the potential consequences of limited affordability, leading to people being confined to cramped micro-apartments or living in substandard trailer park-like tiny house villages. We should strive for a society where everyone has access to secure and comfortable housing that meets specific standards related to space, aesthetics, and proximity to essential facilities and public centers.
When envisioning the future of housing, I consider the transformative potential of AI, robotics, 3D printing, and the exploration of eco-friendly building materials. These advancements offer us exciting opportunities to go beyond mere adequacy and create housing solutions that truly enhance the lives of individuals and communities. By combining these technological advancements with well-designed job programs aimed at constructing and maintaining housing, we can realize the vision of providing high-quality, affordable, and sustainable housing for all members of society.
It is essential that we prioritize housing as a fundamental human right and work towards creating inclusive communities where individuals can thrive. By combining UBI, innovative technologies, sustainable building practices, and robust job programs, we can build a future where adequate housing is not only guaranteed but exceeds the expectations of what a home should be.
The idea of the humans becoming a race of hobbyists is pretty depressing. My hope is that we use AI to improve humans continuously physically, mentally, and emotionally. We can imagine being better and now we have the tools to make it happen.
The alternative is to become bystanders watching AI improve itself, like a dog watching its master doing things it can't comprehend.
David , you are by far my favourite UA-camr atm.
But have you seen Simon Reeves recent documentary on Australia ? He visits a community of Aborigines who are based near Darwin. 90% of the community are on UBI (they call it "Sit Down Money"), and unfortunately it has made the whole community spiral downwards into domestic abuse, drug and alcohol abuse etc. Its a very real indicator of how things could go
A note on housing. With AI replacing so many office jobs there will be an abundance of office space that can be converted into apartments.
I've added this to my limited list of favorites in my favorites folder.
I made a video on it as well. Interestingly high numbers.
I personally think it should probably start low, in general for public support purposes, but also lower by age that increases by age.
And removing minimum wage.
More may be possible, but the job = honor feeling is really strong.
Interesting what AI may do.
One thng I would add to the UBI framework would be to incentivize education. $2000 month, with no strings attached as a start. If you can sell your skills or goods that you create to other people, great.
However, whatever organization is providing the $2000 base amount should also reward time and effort spent on self-improvement. Whether that is studing university level physics or studying blacksmithing and forging. This will encourage progress and guard against societal stagnation.
Useless knowledge is instantly forgotten. The incentive would have to be real and stable. Give an edge, prestige. Like retesting and rewarding with money every single year.
You don't really get this whole ai thing do you, there will be next to no jobs in the future, if you can learn a new skill that can make money the ai will also be able to learn it except way faster and better
@@madalinradion I've spent 30 years in the open source community. People can and will spend a lot of time and effort doing things that they enjoy doing, with no need for a monetary reward. And if AI has changed society to the point where there are almost no jobs (which I agree is very likely, although the timeframe is uncertain) then it is likely that most people will have their basic needs covered somehow.
And while AI might be able to do pretty much everything faster and better, there will also be a market for non-AI goods. Just as an example, if you're furnishing your new apartment, you can order a new couch from AI-Mart, and a perfectly built couch that meets your specifications will arrive the next day. But what if you've got a friend who got interested in furniture making, and since they don't need to work offers to make you a couch. It'll take longer, and won't be as perfectly constructed, or exactly what you expected. But it's hand made. If there is no cost difference, which would you pick? If there was a cost difference, how much would you tolerate?
I think your fundamentals are spot on, but you're kind of missing it, the adventitious aspects of such a society is that our commitment to creativity skyrockets, that can be in one off boutique solution, or optimizations, the general exploration of the possibility space is comparable to a singularity all by itself..
to the shrinking population sizes, I think it's important to keep in mind the advances in medicine, research into senescence and bioreactors is still in its infancy, very promising developments happening at the moment that have enormous potential to provide vastly improved healthcare to all
also, there's already WAAY too many people hiking the Appalachian Trail 😆 I've heard you almost can't get a permit to hike the last leg of it anymore, it's becoming like Everest, most uncouth. maybe once vertical farming blooms we can start reclaiming farm land and sculpting more places to be in nature 🤷personally I'd love to live in a high density apartment spire in the middle of a forest
Please talk about CBDC and personal property in a post-labor economy.
As a Swede I really think it is interesting with the concept of a Walkable City, the concept of having a non-walkable city is something outside my imagination. I really need to visit US to experience this crazy thing myself. 😂
Pure insanity. It makes my blood boil every time I see a strip mall.
With enough time and willpower, any city can be walkable!
There are lots of small towns in America with populations of less than 1000. They are very walkable with grocery stores, restaurants, parks, schools, etc. Large lots could be purchased and revamped to create the "coaster" communities you mentioned. With how spread out the current houses are, it would be possible to triple the populations without expanding the borders of the towns.
The thing is this is a starting point money type of the situation so it's not like this is all you get for the rest of your life or anything people are starting with that and getting that on a monthly basis like you would in a Monopoly game basically and if they want to try to do something with it they can it's a starting point they can go get a job they can get a place to live and then get a job they can just do whatever they need to do from the starting point and I think that's what they're trying to do here at least for this starting point until other things happen in the future which you might want to look up Robby Wells and the creative society that could be the future which is very interesting.
There doesn't seem to be an option for those who want a solitary lifestyle. I want to own large acres of woodland. Clear a spot and build a small roundhouse. Also, every winter hedge off the land as much as possible.
I've thought about the idea that when we can automate every task, what value could humans provide to the economy? It's their humanity. Their values, their preferences, their appearance (language, voice, motion patterns), everything that distinguishes humanity as a whole, individuals specifically or groups of them, from just any conceivable sentience, or from each other. And it's funny because it's already happening. It's how social media make their profits. It's how AI is trained. Human labor is providing this information, usually without or with minor compensation, but it is still something that has to be done. And as of yet, it cannot be fully automated, because simulating humans without human input is well beyond contemporary computational capabilities. And you have to keep doing this, as humanity changes, culture changes, even our bodies change.
I had lunch at work once with Stephen Wolfram. He was asked what role humans will have in the AI/robotic future. He said, _"We will be the goal setters."_ I think it all hearkens back to what John Naisbitt called it “high tech/high touch.” The technology will recede into the background and we will spend less time wrestling with it and more time doing what we, as humans, want to do. The movie "Her" gives a nice vision of this iMHO.
I want to get a tiny house, i live in soCal and housing is just a liability at this point, a luxury j can't afford. However, i want my own space, not much.
$2K USD is slicing it a little thin. I think 3K net or even 2.5K would make a difference. In the evolution of things, we may evolve into less greedy species when there is no more fear of scarcity or even death. When I was a kid 50 years ago I wanted to be rich. As an adult, the responsibilities involved with being being wealthy sound like a headache. For me to make the most living within our means seems like plenty. So even within our individual lifetimes we can go through changes and evolution.
tell us about ethical problems of FDVR please
Great overview but I think the crux is drilling down on the change over.
All the hobbies in the world won't mean a thing if we can't safely transition to a post AI economy.
Labor, Unemployment, UBI, Housing, transportation, and dressing social and economic stratification and the transition of wealth, taxes, social support structures ect are the absolute main issue that needs to be discussed fully and repeatedly. It literally is just as if not more critical than the alignment discussion.
Keeping AI from killing us all is critical. But just as critical is keeping humans from killing each other as we face this existential transition.
We need a deep and constant conversation about this most important subject.
I'm just waiting.
I'm already psychologically and socially optimized for this.
At 2k per month, I'd continue to work on metaverse environments to sell as NFTs. If I made somewhere between 2k-5k per year on that, I'd feel awesome about myself AND I'd be saving/investing around 21k per year. Sooo great. I'd be really happy. I'd sleep so damn well!
fantastic!
But automation and 3d printing should also lower housing prices, vertical farms and zero kilometer food production and distribution, also should keep food prices in check. Most crucial part right now is energy, all AIs, Robots and technology are power hungry...
I think a robot with precision vison and dexterity should be in the dentist/ dental hygienist roles. 'She/h'e' will provide top near perfect dental care all over the globe
Can I have access to the slides of the video in case I want to study them?
One thing I think you may be missing is longevity. If we’re going to be living longer mortgages and car payments should be able to be stretched out to 50 yrs or more. So with that being said I would think we would be able to afford bigger houses not smaller houses. Same with cars. What do think David?
For various reasons and sheer number of requisite underlying assumptions, UBI will not work in this form. Also, never underestimate political pork barrel politics that will ruin this.
I put my son through college on a single income...thats great for a person like my grandfather. The value of the dollar was TEN TIMES what its now when first started working
Most of the walkable cities have no business they rely on tourist i dont think we want to deal with that
Wouldn’t there still be jobs for software engineers in AI and prompt engineers?
yes, but look how many jobs we have already lost from self-checkouts.. they are everywhere now.
13:43 I appreciate this idea, but I can see tons of problems if one person wants to start dating / having other people stay over.
It’s actually south koreas population that’s in decline. The DPRK is actually doing really well
See you on the Appalachian dawg ✌
A lot of the images proposed have to do with the "fashion" of us imagining 70% unemployment. For instance, the "taxi" thing I think has been leaked out by the US auto manufacturers. OK, this would work in a city. But there are still going to be rural and other needs the "taxi" thing won't meet. Are people going to have to wait half a day for a taxi in a remote area to haul something a short distance? What about work vehicles? There is not going to be a "one size fits all", the way large industries try to push on us.
"Tiny houses" are also good for some. Traditionally, in the US Northeast, a "starter home" would be a row house in a city or town. These houses were originally built in walking distance to a factory or somewhere that employed a large group of people. Here we have Winters. Wintertime may be a time when outdoor activity is less, and indoor projects take place. In a tiny house, there's not much room to lay out materials to let's say paint. This is going to bring on cabin fever. Tiny houses are cute and ideal for seasonal residence.
But once again, what about stuff that already exists? Are row houses going to be demolished for tiny house communities? Or will existing houses be refurbished? Also 60 years from now the population will be less than toady.
Right now my wife and I live in a house about 1590 square feet. It's fine for us. We have a garage and a shed. The heating bill is a little high because we are in a windy area during Winter. Point is, many people live well within their means today. If we had between 2-3K UBI we are pretty much already there. Many things outward appearance wouldn't change drastically, at least not right away, if UBI was implemented for 70%. 70% unemployment would still be a major shock to 100% of the people.
I'm on ssdi, and we get 914.00 a month to live on, how could they afford to give everyone more???
Plenty of wealth to go around for who? Taxing corporations, good luck with that one.
I was tracking along until the spiritualism. Not that I don't think that the issue of meaning in today's society isn't an issue. It's possibly one of the biggest issues. And I am not necessarily apposed to, "spiritualism" in a rather soft and benign form. Ultimately, spiritualism and even religion are just facets of philosophy. Philosophy being the models we use to describe reality. So, we are just ascribing more meaning and value to topics of phycology that our current scientific material understanding to not satisfy. I think this is where metamodernism comes into play. The ability to acknowledge the idealism of the modernist movement, while at the same time holding the criticism of the postmodernism movement. For example, I think we can agree that Mark Twain was an eloquent writer. But, it is fair and even necessary to acknowledge that his depiction of black characters has aged poorly. We don't simply wave it away as a matter of its time, but, we also do not throw out the things that are valuable. We similarly, didn't reject super highways or economic automobiles, just because they were propaganda hallmarks of the Nazis. Metamodernism, lets us reconcile the cognitive dissonance of idealism in the face of countervailing evidence. So we can navigating through our past to forge a better present and future. As such, the line between, wellness and spiritualism becomes more blurred. And this line will become thinner and thinner as our scientific exploration continues. And at some point certain spiritual frameworks will no longer be attractive. But, hopefully with meta modern narratives we will have the social psychological tools to transcend the cognitive barriers and prosper.
So, I am wary of just saying adopt, "some" form of spiritualism. I think it is more important to first understand what it is, and why it is valuable to do so. Not to, just surrender to it, with total blind faith. This leads to too many opportunities for negative outcomes. Personally, and socially.
I of course am still developing this understanding, and it too will evolve. But, it is my current thinking.
There’s no reason FDVR wouldn’t be possible given you just need to map and impulse the nervous system
I haven't finished the video yet, but I'd like to share my story, since I live with a kind of a basic income for the last year or so.
I used to pursue a PhD in Physics, you know, accelerators and stuff. Unfortunately, I happen to be from Russia. I used to do some free work for a research institute (I'll call it INR for no reason), but then was employed for 10hr week for half a salary. Which was ~250$ at the time. To put this in context, (for a single person) in Moscow I've averaged 290$ per month for mobile internet, food and other FMCG. My housing and home internet were basically free because my uni priced the dormitory at around 15$/month. So, with a uni stipend (~150$) and some help from my parents, I managed to get by and save a little. After Russia started the war in Ukraine (again), INR was dropped from some research grants and my salary went down to 120-150$. The upside is that I never showed up at work since February 2022 and they still pay me. Bureaucracy and overall reluctance to fire a random student made it possible for me to try to export my startup (which ultimately failed) and find a temporary shelter in Tbilisi, Georgia. It made it real to leave Russia, crash land in a foreign country and unsuccessfully look for a job for over half a year without a penny of savings. I even paid the rent for my friend (which I ran with) for the first two months because exchange rates were really high. After a few tries, he found a place to hang onto.
Currently, I'm averaging my expenses 150$ for rent and 120$ for food per month. INR still pays me ~110$, uni did pay ~120$ until this June (guess, I'm expelled now).
If the basic income is good for anything, it's this: escaping the governments that are aggressively making you comply.
For anyone wondering, my first exchange program was planned for the autumn of 2022. And yes, researchers of my grade in Germany do earn like 3800$ per month, or 950$ per hours that I worked.
One of the premises of the UBI is “no question asked”. The problem here would be to transfer your funds abroad
In my case we still have Unistream working just fine. Others opt for cryptocurrencies
Think there might be drama in a mommune?
Great presentation. I have a question about the basics of UBI, however. It is estimated that about 50% of tax revenues collected by the government comes from workers. Another 36% from payroll taxes. I the vast majority of people are no longer 'contributing' their tax money, where do the funds come from to fund UBI?
You would have a VAT(value added tax) placed on the production of goods made via automation. Since more goods, in theory, could be made tax revenue would be good. It really depends on rather you believe money will still be a thing of course.
I think the biggest thing missing from these videos is acknowledgement that most people don't work in silos. Replacing our careers with hobbies will not be fulfilling, as humans are highly cooperative, and working together in a structured environment to achieve a common goal is rewarding and extremely meaningful. It's not (just) about status - it's burned into our DNA. A more likely future would be one in which AIs/robots and humans (who wish to) work side by side. Or at the very least the machines will give us tasks that make us feel productive and helpful, and provide secure structure and competent/compassionate leadership. Deaths of despair (suicide, drug overdose, etc) are rising at an alarming rate, and it's got nothing to do with income. I'm actually pro-UBI, I just think we're not considering how important it is for the psyche to belong to a cooperative, productive enterprise, be it a tribe or a corporation.
There will be space exploration for people that want that, setting up new colonies would be challenging and a collective goal.
I don't know where you are getting any of this "burned into our DNA" and hobbies can also be carried out in a structured cooperative environment so just weird.
Deaths of despair as you put it have a significant correlation with income as the most disenfranchised and unempowered in society are the most likely to commit suicide or fall to drug addiction which is shown in statistics of my own country (India) where manual labour workers and house-wives are the most common victims with farmers, students following.
Maybe you are coming from a privileged background but humans don't usually work in a well structured environment for a common goal because they are completely aligned, this is the rare scenario where employees are connected to the company at a deeper level than renumeration. They do it so they have enough to sustain their way of living or elevate it.
Ain't nobody working as a janitor at microsoft because they believe they are contributing to a technological innovation to change the world, mostly none of the people in large companies have any sort of significant connection or attachment to the final products they play a part in producing.
Someone clearly never tried to make/keep their hobby profitable. Shit is so hard it would fulfil you for thousand years.
Most jobs no. I'm a custodian. I would cheer if you free me from my daily torment. There are many ways people work together to achieve goals, have you forgotten sports? Games? Hobbies? This would allow people the ability to go do the things they wish to do above the things they must do to survive. Trust me I'm not missing cleaning the mess these kids make.
Re tiny house: after lot size, water, sewer, and electricity hookup, $50,000 is reasonable in less populated states. All inclusive comes from UA-cam channels from people who built their own tiny homes.
I'm afraid your assumptions might be overestimating the psychological value provided by hobbies. People basically invest their time into something to feel better off (or at least not worse) than their neighbor or colleague. The fight is for prestige because that's how nature built us. Under UBI + AI most people are going to feel hopeless, because AI would be able to provide any goods quickly and cheaply. Except gold. No hobbies would provide value and prestige. People would do anything to get more money and live a better life, or own something made of gold. With no work what would they do?
Us filipinos and other minorities live in multi income households , already multi-generational . There is no pressure on moving out .
It's ironic that AI might end up doing all the interesting work leaving humans to decend into a race of rustic craftsmen and farmers. There's this neat narrative arc in which our species ascends from simple hunter gatherers toward technological sophistication to the point where we create AGI -then slowly reverts back again to the point that we may no longer even understand the machines that come to run our world- sounds like a lot of the golden age sci fi I read as a kid.
In reality I suspect that the 'useless eaters' meme may overtake this more positive outcome as those in control work out that they have absolutely no use whatsoever for the redundant millions that clutter up their world and continue to drain it's dwindling resources, even as they add very little economic value to it's future. Cue your favourite dystopian varient of 'soylent green.'
Replying to my own comment to add that I have no idea why that strike through line appeared in my text- perhaps the AI that no doubt moderates these posts objected to this part of the paragraph?
@@paulhiggins5165 I would think ai would use more abundant materials and more efficient energy production to continue growth.
@@hi-gf5yl You assume that this growth would be willingly and equitably shared by those in power. Is there any evidence that even the current level of prosperity has been shared in this way? I don't think there is.
There has always been an uneasy truce between capital and labour because those with the wealth and therefore the power recognised that they needed the great unwashed to labour on their behalf. What happens to this truce when capital realises that they no longer need most of the human labour force?
Perhaps human nature has changed enough to make a utopian outcome possible- I hope so. But the more likely outcome I fear is that those who have no economic value will be gradually stripped of their rights to the point that they will at best be marginalised and desperately poor, or at worst be 'disposed of' in some way or another. Ironically the AI's may end up having more rights than the humans they displace since their contribution will be of more value to the elites who run the world.
@@paulhiggins5165 wealth redistribution is very common in Western nations. We have innumerable social programs that are funded by taxes. Even the healthcare system, while not universal in the US, has many assistance programs for the poor. It's certainly not perfect, but this is largely due to logistics and corruption, both of which can be addressed by AI. Besides all that, do you think people of the West, who are famous for their rebelliousness will simply allow themselves to be ground into such abject poverty, the likes of which can barely be found outside of a third world country?
People have been mislead to believe that life is much worse than it is. There's definitely room for improvement but I think this doomer mentality comes down to negativity bias.
@@Frankiigii I think you've gone too far up your arse to see the suffering of millions on a daily basis while you type your youtube comment. At least I can recognise this and move on but you have been mislead to believe the sort of life you are witnessing around you is the truth of existence which it clearly isn't.
By the very fact alone that healthcare isn't universal should be a significant alarming sign, its not a negativity bias its the reality of existence for millions of individuals and billions worldwide. Compared to how much wealth and value is being generated and enjoyed by the wealthiest in society, the rest of us might as well be living in abject poverty for most intents and purposes
There are people that hold ideology that is odious to most of us. Will their rights to hold these ideas restrict them from UBI?
Grandma still prefers a human to take care of her, yeah, but hopefully medicine will evolve up to a point in which grandma doesn't need any robot, because she reached longevity escape velocity xD
I feel like Dave is advocating for Socialism but not willing to say it, capitalism is centered around profit, the fact that these plans are people first and not profit first shows that this is not capitalism but socialism. Guys, there's nothing wrong with not wanting capitalism (aka worshiping profit) and actually care about human
It is capitalism, because you gove the poor a chance to consume more goods. Socialism is centering everything.
It's not in theory socialism. That has more to do with who owns the means of production. In socialism it's generally the worker, communism it's the state( government), capitalism it's the owner class. Social safety net is not socialism. UBI isn't socialism. Worker owned co-ops are socialism, government run central planned industry is communism. Many democracies already provide far greater social bets than the US yet are not socialist countries. If businesses are remaining owned and operated by the owner class it's still capitalism. The owners would still profit quite handsomely. Alaska already does a form of UBI in that they distribute a portion of the oil proceeds to every Alaskan citizen annually. You get a check, just for being Alaskan that comes from charging the oil producers to drill the oil. UBI would be similar in that producers of goods would have to pay a tax(VAT) on what is produced and all citizens would qualify to benefit from it. It in no way prohibits folks from making more, not stops owners from profiting. Government isn't seizing control of production and not much changes fundamentally.
I would think that if unemployment reaches 70%, if the UBI payment is not enough, and/or housing solutions are not sufficient, then housing prices, and rental costs will crash. I believe at least in the short term as the baby boomers are a large percentage of home owners and a big chunk of voters, the government will favor saving the housing market from a complete crash. Perhaps leaning toward government purchasing of housing to provide subsidized rentals. Strange times ahead indeed.
Credits backed by people, a digital currency. X credits per person, created and given to them when they join. When someone dies the x credits that represented them need to be removed to prevent inflation so every credit in the entire system gets reduced by an equal percent until that person's x credits are removed.
Also adding to this comment, you can buy used travel trailers and full-size mobile homes for literally Pennies on the dollar, and get a redneck guy with a dually to call the travel trailer to a decent trailer park, or for a full-size used mobile home, you can pay a mover a couple Grand. This is how I got around very expensive apartment housing during my University days. Especially for travel trailers, you can slap a couple solar panels since they are getting so cheap. There are also a ton of workamping opportunities on ranches and state and national parks. So this is a very clever way to live cheaply in the US
AI will never be able to do demolition and earthmoving on a residential level.
waw that was the most depresing thing I've ever heard.
Instead of just giving money to people, why not just get rid of money and we can use data about usage rates to make sure that there is always a sufficient amount of whatever people will need in a given area. Allowing money to exist only facilitates the hoarding of power by rich people, and they get that money by stealing it from the labor of their employees.
Are you going to do the rest of your videos in full Star Trek regalia (ref to your latest videos)? I like the message because yes... we are living in the future. We now have the tools, or are very close to having the tools that can lead to a post-capitalist society. I personally don't feel UBI is the best bet because we have to work out proper Governance in our nations, handling things like corruption, etc. before that happens. We must "get our house in order" if you will, before we can enjoy such things as a fair and balanced global subsistence minimum. Rather than UBI I'd rather go to directly for a money-less society, let all of these legacy institutions die by ignoring them. Banks, financial institutions and politicians will not help with anything besides to try to continue to hold their death grip on their position in society as it currently runs. If we have UBI before we heal all of that corruption, we will only ever end up in a society where the powerful oppress the weak. Whether they gain power through being centralized and being the organization that is supposed to hand out this "basic income", or by placing some other type of mob rule over this, unless UBI is the same as an inalienable right (for someone to mess with your subsistence would legally be like attempting to murder you)... it will be completely impossible to properly regulate. This current financial framework and bureaucracy we live in doesn't have any direct transitions to a post-capitalist world, but I think UBI done right would not include any institution who has ever taken advantage of a population of people within the capitalist framework.
I don't think parents should get added UBI for children, even if there is less of it for each child. BUT children should get a reserve which eventually matches a matured account by the age of 18, where upon they child can access that account and so afford a down payment on important stuff like housing. immigrants would have a similar system which matures over time. Similarly, people in prison would have their UBI put into a reserve, which is in part returned gradually as long as they avoid recidivism...some of this goes too to the institution they were imprisoned, both lose the gradual reward if there is recidivism.
p.s. There should still be Social Security/Pensions for those who do manage to find work.
I bet once people feel secure the birthdate will rise. People are uncertain of their future and times are hard right now.
This is a dystopian nightmare.
we already live in it, why not try another one?
What exactly do you feel dystopian about this future, if you don't mind me asking? 🙂
Your perspective of a dystopia is very warped and quite a sensitive one. If want to see a dystopia take a look at some of the slums that exist as a result of people having absolutely no access to any means to improve their situation.
1:20 -- Suggested UBI: $2,000/month/(USA adult)
Adults in United States (per US 2020 Census Bureau): 331.4 Million (331400000) USA adults
12 months/year
UBI cost/year: $2000 * 331400000 * 12 = $7953600000000/year = $7,953,600,000,000/year = $7.9536 Trillion / year
Total United States Tax Revenue (per cbo.gov; [1]) in 2022: $4.9 trillion
I love the idea of an UBI, but -- Where is $7.95 Trillion dollars annually going to come from? And we haven't even started in on the health care.
Forbes 2023's 37th annual list of billionaires counts 2,640 billionaries, collectively controlling $12.2 trillion dollars. OK, so you could drain all of the *world's* billionaires to give a UBI to citizens of only the United States for for (12.2/7.95 =) 1.53 years, after which, all of the billionaires have been completely drained.
I repeat: How is the UBI paid for?
$2000 for UBI is pretty low given the current economic climate. If your predictions are right about a 15% GDP, then it would be almost impossible for the government to lack funding for a higher UBI. If we're going to cling to this outdated capitalistic model, then people will need enough money per month to prop it up. A capitalist system collapses under it's own weight without anyone buying widgets.
Also, corporations avoid taxes like the plague, so I can tell you no corporation is going to go for this. They aren't going to want to be the only ones being taxed up the @$$ while the average Joe and Jane get an UBI to globe trot. Corporations exist to make money, not provide goods or services. As long as their motive is profit, they'll do whatever they can to maximize it.
Few things for consideration. The universal bit of UBI doesn't math well, its extremely inflationary, without severe price controls biz would raise prices in line in a vicious cycle, and also people want meaningful work/opportunity, thats why some argue for a Basic Income for those who want/need it, but also a Federal Jobs Guarantee, its locally run, but Federally funded(the actual source of $). There were studies & lots of rigor run that proved this (see Levy Institute website Jobs Guarantee section). Im sure we will create all sorts of meaningful work that satisfies peoples needs, & assure people can have time without needing to work whenever thats needed/desired for them, its all possible.
Another important math bit, we know that Medicare for All Insurance is supremely deflationary, it requires something like eliminating FICA tax completely. Some like Warren Mosler argue to eliminate all income tax, & pivot to a fair & truthful flexible setup. After all, Federal Taxes are not saved, nor spent, they're instantly deleted, its a drain function, EOL in the lifecycle of a $. I agree we should provide fiscal flows & econ automatic stabilizers to assure healthy econ, there are many ways & potentials for that, especially when we know the true source & capacity of Our Sovereign $. Think Star Trek future!💚💚💚
The Federal Government (per Constitution) is the source of Our Sovereign Currency, understanding how things truthfully function is essential to model correctly, if you notice the overwhelming majority of economists, talking heads, & econ media are 99.999% wrong on their models & predictions, because they clearly do not understand, or want to deal in fact. Have a chat with Warren Mosler, Stephanie Kelton et al, reality based economics is essential to get this correct, otherwise we wont have the proper debates, & thus will have far less capable policies.
Man I like the sound of this but the problem is is I don't think things are going to get cheap enough to live off of $2,000 $2,000 is just not enough to live
There is a few issues with your UBI statement and making it affordable for the government. So there will be mass deflation and a population decline.. so where is the government going to be getting their revenue from? If we have population decline why would we need tiny houses when we have all these other houses that are already built? Office building will be empty. There will be plenty of realestate. With the meaning of work and remuneration not being the same, I’m not sure if you would even need to term money. Policy driven carbon credits maybe. The UBI and housing issues will only happen or be useful during a transition period. If government just print money when then need it do they even need to worry about how much they are giving out?
They are making is you can’t live in your tiny houses in Australia now because of the fire risk. lol
23:00 Aslong ChatGPT or AI/AGI in general is not flawless in its anwsers i would prefer to be teached with books and teachers. Sofar hallucinations seems to still be an issue, so you do not only get obviously wrong answers but some that you will think are correct and then remember those which in my books is worse than not having it learned at all. If i come into a situation with educated people and i recall something that is factually wrong and would present myself like that, damn, i would die of shame.
If i would only hang out with bozos looking things up on their smartphone with chatCPT, they may likely not even notice ^^. Technology can cut two ways.
Socialism is more about the workers owning the means of production and empowering themselves by democratizing the work force. The state would be controlled by workers
Some very good points but the problem you’re going to run into his cost containment of materials for anything. Food or any other activity that you plan to do is going to require some type of material which at $2000 a month most likely is not going to happen very well. Will also have to have free powder/water/gas/sanitation/internet for your basic existence if you are going to try to make any extra living income the tax rate will be incredibly high to support the redistribution system. And if you are making products to put out a co-op market The amount people will have to spend will be minimal. Living like it is a modern 1500’s community It’s going to be quite difficult. Description looks to be the same as the final result in the movie After Armageddon, I Wonder how cities like New York and London would fair
Eventually the problem with UBI in a post scarcity world will be costs will start to plummet towards 0. Money wont have much real value at that point and so capitalism itself wont be able to function. Unfortunately no matter how hard people will try to force capitalism it will eventually fail under a post-scarcity world.
Final form will be Japan microtubes or Eastern Europe 10 floors blockhouse...😊
Were you just pulling numbers out of the air for the UBI, or were they based on something specific. You did mention decreasing incentives for children. Which honestly makes sense. Kids are expensive, but some of those costs don't scale, or don't scale evenly with more kids. Like, getting remarried and getting a step kid doubled the grocery bill, but the electric bill only went up a couple dollars and the cable and internet bill stayed the same.
Looking at my own numbers, I currently have a multigenerational family with my wife, our two kids, and my aging parents. Combined income is about $6400 after taxes, and expenses are roughly $4000. About 65% of that is housing (plus my parents storage units of all the stuff they wouldn't get rid of when they moved in) and 2 car loans (out of 3 vehicles) + gas, car insurance, and maintenance.
Of course, with 6 people, downsizing from our 2000 sq ft 4 bedroom home isn't an option, the space already feels too tight, but without my hypermiling commute, we could get rid of the 3rd car, which has the highest loan payment, and reduce our housing + transportation costs by a quarter
23:40 grandma would rather you take care of her and not a robot.
This part I kind of disagree with. A lot of older people don’t want to burden their family/friends with taking care of them. If a robot could do the cooking/cleaning/care and family then could just visit and hang out - that would be the best of both worlds I think.
This time when updating zoning laws to accommodate tiny homes, walkable cities I sincerely hope they don't do it the way FDR did segregating the housing by race via redlining, walls and invasive highways dividing neighborhoods, that's not progressive nor is it humane
I won't be truly happy until the technology allows me to actually escape the confines of my meatbag body and exist entirely in virtual reality, freed entirely from conventional existenced. I have zero attachment to the human condition and can't wait to be rid of it.
Tf your house has to be a min size?