AGI Revolution: How Businesses, Governments, and Individuals can Prepare
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- Опубліковано 21 лип 2024
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The Canadian senate is actually supposed to be reviewing a bill to set up a framework for UBI in Canada today.
it will be everywhere only digital and with expire date against inflation, so don't be like Cinderella on pumpkin at noon, anyway this basically a food money, they don't provide any social mobility, esp you can't collect them to be rich
That's good, maby they can set a example to us here in the US as so many people i know are living pay check to pay check. Even me & are being priced out the place were renting.
I think it's high time company's give back since they have refused to raise wages since the 1970s, just letting the stagnant while we workers having given them more than enough productivity pay us decent and still make good profit.
@@ryzikx they are not.
@@Djdbdodvedhdbdkso Don't bother responding to comments like that. You're just giving them the attention they're begging for. Just report the comment as misinformation and move on.
Lol... America will put an end to that with backroom pressure
As an unemployed (since Covid) ex-infra guy transitioned to software dev just prior to Covid, I'm finding myself already fatigued trying to sus out my path on this up slope. Suffice it to say, I am going through my own existential crisis...... your videos are like a soft cushion to lie down on for a few minutes. So thank ya
Sucks man, sorry to hear that.
@@DaveShap Appreciate that, though I'm not worried. We gotta figure all this out come what may.... it's just nice to have someone to listen to that is able to be somewhat of a compass in it all.
how about you help out Dave with his ACE project. Good way to build your portfolio, Or who knows you may even make ur own AGI based company once the model is completed. Not for certain. But still a good bet.
I already went through the crises right when gpt4 came out. I realized that these things just make us much more productive. But not just for companies even for you as well as a person who might want to start your own business. If you can't find work make your own. These tools will allow U to compete with bigger companies as well. So many of them will be slow to adapt. That's your opportunity 😊
@@bentobin9606Yeah I have been considering options for implementing an ACE based project, but haven't quite stumbled on a killer idea that I ultimately will love pursuing. For me I have to love it to give it my all. I do have one potential area, but I'm kinda waiting for an API price drop to happen before I commit to any long term dev.
This was one of the best hopeful videos you've made. Thank you for your dedicated research and work as usual.
This was incredible. You touched on so many things I’ve been concerned about. And in my circle, I feel like I’m the only one even thinking about it. Thank you so much for sharing this.
I am totally off-grid, water, electric, etc. Still fully and wirelessly connected. This stuff is more exciting every day, thanx to people like YOU David !
Spot on about status game. It’s obvious that human will pivot from careers to status games (sports, cognitive sports, other creative things endeavours) as their full time thing (and of course family, as always). That said, if we enter the AGI age without aggressively focusing on creating abundance (meaning, almost any good / service price goes towards 0), we will face an insane human catastrophe.
That's a great condensation of American life: "You're on your own, Scrub, get good." I laughed.
I was doom-scrolling reddit the other day and saw that the Canadian government (aka my government) is actually starting plans to experiment with UBI and I got really excited. However, as soon as I went to the comments, there was literally not a single mention of AI that I could find, and most people were screaming about "where is this money going to come from? not from my taxes! free money will just lead to faster inflation!" And I'm just sitting here like does nobody even have the slightest sense that even just maybe this will be necessary sooner or later in order to just help distribute resources created by AI and automation once job loss is at an all time high? No? Well, glad the people in charge are at least leaning in the right direction despite this reaction.
That's because the idea is complete idiocy. Where is the money going to come from? Canada is already on its knees. Firstly, UBI has not been properly explored; rushing to implement it and consolidating power to the government with no thought is absolutely insane. The worst possible outcome in every scenario is authoritarianism, and everyone seems hellbent on bringing it about.
Hello fellow Canadian! No doubt they will need AI, I see the negative nancies yelling about taxation all the time too 😂
In order to distribute money, that money needs to be created and spent in a way that's taxable. What's the guarantee companies will not operate out of tax haven outside Canada, repatriate profits out, and leave Canada dry?
I'm actually amazed the reddit crowd, of all people, are the ones screaming and critical over UBI.
@@urphakeandgey6308 reddit is an Anti-AI cesspool. Doomerism has increased. Pessimism is society's favorite flavor
It's refreshing and always baffling to see that the smaller channels are putting the most effort and creativity into their craft. well done. I'll be a lifelong subscriber for that
Seeing this coming feels like being one of those people on the rooftop of the building under the mothership in Independence Day. We're looking up at this advanced technology with wonder and hope, and we're entranced by the beauty and mystery in its promise, but very quickly for most of us it probably won't end well.
I have been comparing it to the titanic. Most people can’t or won’t accept that it is real. Others will say “okay” and decide to just die gracefully. The people who are consuming content like this are all scrambling at the back of the boat and honestly, I feel like we know it’s going to sink, and that no one is coming, and we have to start seriously talking about like, okay we really need to reexamine flying. Or growing fins. SOMETHING. I don’t know what it is, but the way we will get through/out of this is only going to be if people who are really paying attention to reality get together and start thinking way way outside the box.
Thank you for this video. I greatly appreciate your thoughts and the time you take to prepare these presentations.
Good one David, for those of us involved this whole thing is almost too much, even when trying to cool down the hype, the telltales of a massive incoming change are already there in the open. Excitement, fear, anxiety, hope all in one.
Thank you David so much for your work!!! I cannot tell you how much entertainment, education and honestly Joy I get from your channel:)
92 years ago, Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World addresses this head on in which the five castes spend their time participating in leisure activities. Looks as if this will be the case if not today, sooner than later.
As an individual who is attempting to pivot to AI during the AI talent crunch, I've created an AI SaaS with GPT as my co-developer. This would have taken a full tech team 1 year, or a rock star in 6 months. I did it in 3 months. I get a lot of calls from contracting companies, but zero interviews thus far.
How did you calculated estimates?
Congrats. Keep it going. I know how it feels from my own history. Get an entry level job if possible and grow from there. Good luck!
Keep it going! The ceiling is still wide open!
@@jaysonp9426 he's right.
We might understand what he's selling, but the clients are clueless.
You'd need a sales guy to pitch the benefits.
I work as an EEG tech in a hospital. I recently came across someone who said they participated in an EEG study involving AI training. EEG interpretation is definitely an area where AI could make a huge impact. The medical field in general will change, immensely.
Do you think there will still be human doctors? Or maybe yes but a whole lot less?
that rhymes ~ lol
@@Wanderer2035 I think the second, human doctors and researchers will still be needed until AI can take over idea synthesis and studies
My research project is about using AI and ECG, EEG and respiration for drowsiness detection
The medical field is on the cusp of major changes thanks to artificial intelligence. AI radiology systems have already proven more accurate than human radiologists at detecting cancer in images. While it's impossible for a single doctor to stay current with the 20,000-30,000 new cancer research papers published monthly, AIs can rapidly consume this information and share insights between systems. Becoming a doctor takes humans over 30 years of education and training. In contrast, a new AI doctor could attain the same level of expertise in 30 minutes by absorbing the collective knowledge of existing medical AIs. The superior pattern recognition and knowledge-sharing abilities of AI promise to revolutionize medicine.
🎉❤😊 Thank you very much, David, for all your podcasts.
I really appreciate your zoom out and zoom in approach on the impacts of AI on societies.
Erich Fromm authored many writings over 60 years ago regarding the adaptation of technological tools on the populations in various political circles.
I really appreciate the details you provide in your observations and explanations of what the results are when people are willing to learn rather than when they are not willing to learn.😊🎉❤
Awesome! Awesome Video! Thank You!
Always appreciate your analyses.
Great video..great insight. Gave me a lot to think about. Thanks for sharing!
Love you for making this channel. Keep up the great work!
Well done. I am a trained economist with decades in the tech industry. I retired to write thrillers about the dangers of AI and you have done an exceptional job at outlining the major issues relative to economic and social dangers. I am now a subscriber.
EXCELLENT video. Nice to hear more practical realism around the issue of our times.
Thank you for this!
Thank you for a great episode.
I agree with you. I've been a dev for 25 years and recently left a FT role to consult part time and focus most of my hours on learning msft semantic kernel, copilot development, llms, vector dbs and building my own .net core 8/blazor application integrated with multiple ais. If it takes off great, if not its going to be an awesome POC to use as a demo when I go back to the workforce and companies know what tech they care about to implement their ai goals. I think many of us acknowledge that our career field will change drastically, and now is an opportunity to do well if you can get the skills early.
Thank you so so so so so much for making this video!
This is what people need to be focusing on. How do we want to live now that everything is different? We can just solve for the Good Life individually and collectively.
Be well brother. See you on the other side.
I just want to add that I COMPLETELY agree with your positive outlook on our future. The personal section of this video was so well thought out and presented. Thank you for that. We need more reassurance for people 👏👏👏 TRUST THE PROCESS 🙌 We got this!
You've been killing it on the videos, Looking forward to seeing you at 1M subs
"I see it playing out really well" - David Shapiro
I greatly appreciate your insight and your optimism.
This was an incredibly insightful and inspiring video. I’m going to make some serious changes in my life. Thank you.
Glad I stumbled upon you channel Mr Shapiro, seriously insightful content
Thanks for all your help.....We need this badly
Absolute banger of a video. Spot on.
Great video, thanks for producing it
A great episode. Thank you for sharing this :)
This was interesting, and eye-opening. everything was very well said, thanks!
Thank you David, for this balanced video. It was practical and neither a rose-tinted view nor doom and gloom.
Really good one
Thank you again sir.
Important discussion here for sure.
Rewatching this a month later. I have been passionately following ai for years, dabbling in open source models, meditating on comprehending the complex relations between compute, knowledge, and awareness. It is shocking to me that this does not have headline visibility. I would love to join your discord and meet some people who have this same passion and vision!
Amazing insights as always
Hey David, I would recommend you to also read "The Denial of Death" and more specifically "Escape from Evil" from Ernest Becker. His anthropological theory is also incredible.
Great video! It helped me a lot! Tnanks! :-)
I’m currently conducting my psych honours on perceptions of LLM impact in healthcare stakeholders. Super exciting/changing times
Automatize as much as you can before your employers notice. They are to busy to care.
Use the money to learn more and prepare.
When you were talking about most people they dont want to know their eyes glaze over and it's almost like they are experiencing some kind of existential internal crisis trauma.😢
I’m working a meaningless job for years.. I do really hope the AI revolution can help some folks like me and others to finally be able to live our dreams and chase our passions .. but I gotta pay the bills
I mean why wouldn't boss let him go..? I'd imagine it will be tough for a few first years
That would be nice but first there needs to be a system put in place so that when your job goes you can still pay the bills. Does is no good till we can get to the point of accepting UBI.
OMG finally someone who thinks through things deeply. An amazing video about the potential that AI has to create a bright future we share with one another.
Thank you ❤
Very well explained
Thanks for this, almost feels like you made this for me after my comment on your last video haha!
Very thorough breakdown of how it is going to go down.
Thank you for the book recommendation of The Status Game. Great so far.
The producer of this video needs to review a study “rat utopia“ that will give insight into the future of humanity when all needs are met.
Agent Smith?
Xed it right away friend! With an AI breakdown timeline as well, of course. The power of compound.
Keep up the positive willing the Fourth Industrial revolution into existence !
This is great breakdown David. Completely on point.
Anyway you can add some noise suppression to your mic? like RTX Voice or RNNoise-Equalizer APO.
Just got out of the SingleStore conference on Real Time AI. We're already almost there. The demos were impressive
We need you consulting our government officials!
There are quite a few government people who watch
thats not enough!@@DaveShap
It's really not self-evident to me that toddlers are possessive of their toys, or private property, because of an inate need to increase perceived social status. I kind of find it difficult to even arrive at that conclusion, but I'll read the book to learn more. Thanks for the video!❤
The concept of ownership is inherent in humans. It doesn't depend on social status perception.
You mentioned many organizations aren’t adopting to AI and the coming 4IR. I have a feeling there will be a period of great unease for many governments and its peoples. Japan is notoriously slow at adapting to changes. It’ll be tough there for a while before it gets better in regard to people losing their jobs and feeling hopeless (salaryman culture is strong).
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Enjoyed this video.
A world without HR is a pure utopia 😊
LOL
@rysikx - an AI HR would have injested ALL of the laws about non-discrimination etc and would enforce. In fact, it may do a better job than existing HR dpts
Much respect/appreciation for your continued great info and content! A post labour occupation you may have missed is community organising/activism, eg environmental rights, to balance the tech advancement of the 4IR. All these humans need to come together to balance the power and prevent cyberpunk 💙☮️🌏🌱
99.9% of the population is not even ready. I’m doing everything I can everyday to learn something new about ai and applications I can learn and then teach as many people as possible.
No one wants to listen to me; their loss. 🤷♂️
Are use all the language models, including the premium version of GPT4 and I’m noticing that inflections model pie is the most closest to AGI seems like a person and always follows up with follow-up questions when appropriate
We need you, Picard. Great vid.
K-12 is more of an investment. It's training you for your life of 8 hour day grunt work so you can produce and provide goods for the country and be a contributing taxpayer. By mandating and funneling you through the system during your most impressionable and developing years, they get way more out of you than they give. So I wouldn't consider that a true "service"
I can't deny that there is a lot of truth in what you said. And even decades ago it was horribly outdated.
Weird prediction I have: In Post Labor Economics, it's possible what we think of as "jobs" and "hobbies" will become blurred. UBI is probably an inevitability, but there will more than likely be ways for people to earn more. Doing this will probably be optional, so even if it's something "boring" like jury duty, people might actually look forward to it. Plus, you'll make extra cash to splurge on whatever. Truthfully, these kinds of opportunities might end up being kind of rare anyway because AI could probably do most community service type activities.
Of course, this means governments would probably determine what these bonus pay activities would be... And that concerns me a bit. A corrupt government could abuse that to incentivize questionable activities.
Thanks very the informative video.
My question is: Will cures for most diseaases be available as soon as AGI is developed?
I can not stop laughing at the “Adapt or Die” section 😭😭😭 ITS SO TRUE! Your delivery is just perfection. I don’t think it’s intentional either but that makes it even better. Like “WELP! Get rekt LIDDITES!” 🤣😭😭😭😭😭💀
Im gonna check out for good
Thanks David for a great exposition on AGI. I warned people through an AI keynote at Concordia University back in January 2018. I suggested three solutions: 1. Get clarity about what life/work you want. 2. Learn computational thinking. 3. Become a creator, not just a worker.
Like most people including experts, I could not predict something like ChatGPT, but I envisioned a world where human intelligence would be augmented (called it IA for Intelligence Augmentation). I posited that it would be the highest level of economic activity where a human was involved. I created a video on this AI keynote on my channel for anyone interested. Cheers!
The Cynic:
1. The government will wait until it is a disaster or emergency to throw together a huge omnibus bill and get more money for their cronies and themselves.
2. The government will never allow A.I. in government. They need to launder all the tax money after all.
3. Can you imagine the corruption in the federal government if they try to institute UBI?
Society is just going to be restructured into social classes again through communities. We already have that now. People live among those they wish to identify and interact with. The police will maintain these distinct communities, but there won't be any formal delineation.
What do you think for commercial real estate brokers? I am wondering how I can implement this before I am replaced.
I'm currently pivoting to a different industry. Right now, work for a software company that makes ATS (Applicant Tracking System) and we focus on light industrial clients (think pickers for order fulfillment, and forklift drivers, stuff like that). With AMRs (Autonomous Mobile Robotics) w/ Google's RT-X "generalist" model advancing every day it feels like, these light-industrial jobs are going away, fast - might still be a few years out but it's coming. So, my strategy is to go into another industry that I feel like will last long enough to help with the transition. Pivoting to AI talent (like building models) I looked at and was bored to tears with it. I love using it, but building my own models? seems boring to me.
Is it a good strategy? I don't know, but it's something, and David, you've helped me come to terms instead of putting my head in the sand and waiting to see what happens, so thank you for work!
I was thinking that maybe once we develop AGI, there will be some lag before the fully capable version is released to the public. This is for a couple of reasons. 1st is that the provider will not want to lose competitive advantage when they could use the tool for r&d into technologies such as quantum computers, fusion and materials design. 2nd is that the agi needs to be properly aligned so that malevolent people do not exploit it to create say killer viruses or nanobots. It might be the case that we will also need to be aligned with genetic engineering and bci to curb our mischievous ways. This obviously opens up a whole barrel of worms, and could lead to something truly dystopian like a barely conscious human hybrid.
Any suggestions on where to look for the examples of LLM use in politics?
Maybe, a politician willing to share their experience?
www.reddit.com/r/foreignservice/comments/11xuj09/politico_at_least_1_us_embassy_is_using_chatgpt/
The issue i find interesting will be the deskilling of jobs i once thought safe a few years ago. Someone of reddit opened my eyes to it. For instance, if an electrician can wear AR frames that tell the electrician what to do step by step, from the thickness to the wire to the angles to bend the conduit to the length to cut the conduit, wouldn't that lessen the required skills, leading to it being a job most anyone physically capable can do? It will drive down the wages considerably. Let's say a master can charge $45 an hour for their services now. A grunt with the glasses could charge $25 and do the job just as well. It may take some time to learn the physical skills but the knowledge aspect will mostly disappear.
So not just are we watching many knowledge jobs disappear, we're seeing other types of jobs requiring fewer skills. A real double whammy
The rat race is ending, that would be greatly appreciated.
It reminds me of back in the 80s when very few of us had a computer and other than learning how to program a computer or play some games they were not really of much real use. There were lots of stuff on the T.V. telling us of a coming computer revolution but this was mostly vague ideas of being able to shop via the T.V. remote, no one had any idea of the magnitude or form of change that was coming. You just have to watch some of the early 80s "Tomorrows World" T.V. shows to see this.
In fact a phrase I used to quote back then seems appropriate now: "When you are run over by the steamroller of technology you either become part of the technology or part of the road" ;-)
Even in this incredibly well-done video from this exceptional creator, discussion of AGI and its impacts is hopelessly linear. Unfortunately, Mr. Shapiro is -- like the rest of us -- limited to imagining near-future scenarios as dictated by the prison of current conceptual frameworks that are anchored in the near-past. While this may help us prepare for one exceedingly short coming moment in the evolution of AI, we can only hope to remain somewhat aware of what comes after that. Our necessarily monolithic mental constructions simply cannot account for entities that will, with every passing moment, reemerge as something entirely new.
So... anyone care to join me in calculating how many angels can dance on the head of this pin?
Some people don't even know what "Chat GPT" is but things are moving so quickly that probably next year we will have a phone using GPT as the Operating System.
Even crazier, our cloths, backpacks, hats may have a ChatGPT operating system that talks O.O
I feel like a new social contract will come far later than it should. How can we help push this to the front?
Im glad you mentioned the "labor force participation rate." Far more important!
David, Thanks for so much high value insight. Especially New Social Contract as an element of Post Labor Econ. I'm co-editing an Interdisciplinary Survey of AI Crit, 2023. Certainly, you will be cited; and are invited to join. In chapter 1 - Visual Arts - aptly described as marginally crushed here, Sinclair Watkins makes a serious distinction between creating and utilizing generative software. The weird dreams you had (this is a different paper and a theory - but it is a cost of generative AI) are caused by you going through your slides. I had the most surreal nightmares when I accidentally slept to algorithmic rain noise. I woke up and switched to organic monophonic symphony of Hildegard von Bingen - entered the nightmare and the earthquake froze and an angel un-impaled me of the the glass and debris and healed me. Keep it up. Gratitude.
Dude excellent video, Could you expand a bit on the social contract part? You said that people will have no more value as labor force, so what are the implications? For example, how will we decide what is the amount of money given with UBI? What if a low UBI disrupts the standard of living of certain people?
I'm not so sure that "influencers" are safe from AI either. For me personally, I don't like them because they just aren't good enough yet. They still feel a little robotic. Which I guess kind of makes you half right? I don't necessarily want a human, just something that's indistinguishable from a human 😅
Yeah that may put me out of a job but honestly if AI gets that good then yay, we win because AI is solid.
A year ago i didnt even think agi was possible and just science fiction, how times change
You know what else is crazy, ChatGPT 3.5 only came out a little under a year ago. A little under a year ago!! All these crazy advancements that we’ve seen in AI during the time ChatGPT was around, and it still hasn’t even been a full year yet. Imagine 5 years? Things are really speeding up O.O
Holding a master's degree in civil engineering, I'm currently without employment in Denmark. While securing an engineering job wouldn't be a significant challenge for me, my interests are steering me towards a career in AI.
My technical skills encompass a reasonable proficiency in Matlab and Python. Additionally, I have four years of hands-on experience in C#, gained through projects on the Unity platform. In terms of AI-related work, I've designed a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) in Python that operated on synthetic data I generated using Matlab. I've also built a multi-agent AI system within Unity that interacts with LLMs via API calls. Beyond this, I've utilized Dream Booth to train my own diffusion models for image generation purposes.
Given this background, what would be a strategically sound next step for someone like me to transition into a career focused on AI?
Dude what do you want to here? Didn't u watched the video? Do what is making u happy....... in 5 years we need only 10% of the programmers in 10 0,01% but if you have fun, just do it but it won't be needed :/
I really like the use of bias in between the analysis, it makes it very accurate. I'm sure in bias with this statement. (for the better, obviously)
Great video! How much thought do you put into the idea that there will almost certainly exist a transcendental AI/object/being at the end of time?
Now that AGI is so close we really have to grapple with the fact that something truly all powerful will exist at some point in the future, just add enough time to AGI and its inevitable. Even if it takes a billion years.
What if this future transcendent force is able to move backwards in time after we create it?
What if all our ancestors where correct that an all powerful being was scooping them up at the moment of their deaths.
You should consider speaking before the government to alert them if thease ideas because your very informative and thorough with your reports 👌🏽
James Barrat does a good job of exploring normalcy bias in his book "Our Final Invention". Though I prefer to take a more optimistic stance, I think it's good reading for anyone interested in it. I'm a 22 year old woman who is very excited about the future. Thanks for your work, remember to ride the wave guys. A taoist belief system, with some faith, will help you during these times :)
I'm so excited to share the future with you guys...
what jobs should I look into getting so I can have a job as long as possible?
AI is already helping me overcome challenges in my business. And this is just chat. I imagine in a few years it will be my coding/developer. And even be able to search the web and contact people based in the task I give it.
9:07 “…human prefer jobs…” not sure if that true! Human have accepted the status quo regarding jobs (activity which generates income) as an evil necessity almost fatality.
It is even worst in our capitalist society and for those living in the big cities.
Unfortunately activities which doesn’t generate income are not considered as job. That why full time mom are not considered in many countries as worker or having a job.
how do you know that alignment is solvable? (i want to know too)
Well done video. I like your input at the end, about wife and what to do if nothing to do .. But what one should do with a partner who cannot accept this changes? With someone who work-addicted, mentally unstable as the same person hate to work 8-5, and do not like a people around after that.
Should we consider that as mental health issue?