Excellent interview/talk and this is the best audio that MIT can provide? Most podcasters in their basement do a better job at audio. The video is excellent to not be too negative.
The book is fascinating. My thanks to the author for clarifying the history of chip evolving into huge geopolitical problems. Hats off to the great physicists all the intellectual inputs and highest level of engineering expenses.
In the 7 months after this discussion, China has cancelled billions in orders for US chips and build their own 7 nm n+2 chip. Although Chris analysis is logical he may have totally underestimated China's ability to innovate and the time it would take for China to catch up. That necessity is the mother of invention is demonstrated by China's ability to produce their own 5G chip in the face of US high tech embargoes.. I think China will continue to surprise the US and the world how fast they will close the gap whether in developing the tools or software to design and manufacture chips. Soon they will roll out their own AI chip..and more
@@TerraBangkok But you forgot there is only 1 company that can do 5nm with high yield. All for the show is the fact that within about 4 years they have moved from not being able to make 7nm chip to now they can. Also let me remind you that very first thing that Chinese sat out to do is to dominate the legacy or matured technology chips, they are doubling their capability in less than 10 years.
Creativy comes from scarcity and deprivation. With a strong foundations on education in science and mathematics and a billion people, progress is inevitable.
The author has forgotten that the Chinese are very resilient people, they survive under all kinds of circumstances, given my experience as a Chinese diaspora. Look at most of the movers and the chip workers in the U.S., Netherlands, besides Taiwan, they are of Chinese descent. Time will tell.
Without intent to spark politics debate..Taiwanese people are actually Chinese..so actually several Chinese people are CEOs of TSMC, UMC, Nvidia, AMD etc.
It is not that he forgotten, he simply don't have the intellect. Given how wrong his book has been proven to be, his professorship should have been ended by now.
I understand and agree with this statement, but I still implore you to remain optimistic in your approach to thoughts of unity between China US Russia. 🙏🏿🙏🏾🙏🏽🙏🏼🙏🏻
Please, please, please hire someone to provide better audio for this important content. The audio is the MOST important aspect in any talking head video.
This video is just 7 months and its assessment of China's chip producing capabilities has been demonstrated as being completely off. Incredible. Fast moving field indeed.
@@comets4saleChina is already producing 7nm chips which the west figured they would take years to achieve. The American led west is falling behind as the east rises. Russia, China and the growing BRICS union have the west beat....
The fallacy of this talk is to assume that China needs to catch up with the same chip technology. But one forgets that restrictive policy from the US will force China to catch up by improving the current technology or new technology (quantum computing, graphene, etc). Of course it is hard but protectionism will not work. In fact most US chip companies are doing terrible now as the demand from China has slowed.
Re your statement that US will force China to catch up by improving current technology or innovate into new technologies like Graphene chips and Quantum computing: 1. Silicon semiconductor is the current technology and they are no where in that field. That's the crux of Miller's talk. 2. Emerging technology like those are still decades away. Quantum computing is unlikely to be widely available consumer devices due to the physics involved. Zero kelvin devices are hard to carry around. Graphene and other materials (eg GaN) has been well studied and lots of companies are doing things there including TSMC. Nobody is standing still waiting for China to catch up.
@@fitzwilliamdarcy3328 true. You are right. But not all consumer goods require 2nm or even 5nm chip. That’s why china is importing far less chip because they are capable making higher nm chip. Although other options may appear far away but when the situation is desperate (for china) breakthroughs may happen. Eg. covid vaccine was developed in record time
@@jamesbookman5160 I think the US government isn't concerned about 14nm chips or older. We don't want to make printers, microwave ovens, or other consumer electronics.
Trying to cut China off, rather than making US more competitive, will not likely work. Anyone will know that once having carefully studied the cases of GPS and space station programs. US once cut China off in one of the Taiwan strait tensions in the 1990s. The end result is that China now has its own Global Positioning System, called Bei Dou. Similarly, US did not allow China to participate in the international space station program, and China now has its own international space station, called Tian Gong, while the international space station is going to retire in a couple of years. Once China is no longer importing all these chips (whether by US embargo or China becoming self reliant), US and others following US may have to “eat” all those chips like Potato chips. China has never wanted to be an enemy of US, or anyone for this matter, but US keeps pushing China harder and harder to become an enemy.
Do you know how far is China away from US? Do you know that notwithstanding the distance, US has more than 400 military bases around the Chinese coast? Do you know that China just broke a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran? What US has done in the Middle East over the last 20 years or so? Killing millions of innocent people, and dislocating many millions more. Without US meddling, there will be no war in the Taiwan strait, and probably most parts of the world.
@@kevinmalloy2180ow many Chinese bases surround America? How many of America's neighbors does china have a security pact with? How many of America's neighbors has china invaded? How many countries have china invaded since 1979?
China is not a market economy and does no innovate. Cutting them off from Chips will set their industrial economy back 50 years. With integrated computing their is no chemical processing, communications systems, automation or weapons guidance systems.
China is currently about 9 years behind in chip tech. What the Americans are assuming is continued progress in chip innovation. If innovation slows down, it becomes easier for China to catch up. I bet it slows down by 2030 at the latest.
You also don’t know what your are talking about. Innovation never slows down Einstein. It is generally trending Moore’s Law. The industry will likely slow down due to oversupply and protectionism as China’s demand for US high end chips are decreasing rapidly.
@@sirus312 Not really China is going with a approach that not only look at the high end chips but also legacy chips. The Legacy chips are the one not talked about but it is what is most needed at the moment. Without ASML SMIC will be test for their skill and knowledge in making the chip with older chip making machine, they are doing a fine job with it.
For a talk center on microchip, I wish the speaker had a deeper understanding about the technology. But university professors need to give talks and write books. And chip war is popular!
So many times Prof Chris Miller has said it is very hard. Engineers would not be so sure about it. We have seen it with lot of other really high tech in areas of aerospace.
Well unlike the previous examples that were touted as "hard" chip manufacturing is the real deal. It is indeed a very very difficult industry to be in.
Re: Moore's Law, while not all ions are the same size, as the desired feature size becomes smaller, the mask lines and later beamline implant accuracy must improve. This relationship between feature size and accuracy is likely true for digital circuits, mixed signal A/D, analog op amps, FPGA and specialty chips. In addition, each chip categories is as different as horses, birds or butterflies, to wit they are different products, markets, and prices. I am looking forward to reading your book. You are covering enormous changes in scale from countries to ions. Bravo
Last year, there were 11.84 million new graduates walked out of the Chinese colleges. 60% or more of them has tech fields degrees. A bad news, China just announced that the first EUV light source prototype has been developed domastically. This is the most important/critical part of all parts used in the EUV machine.
The author of this book was originally a Russian History academic, so he may have unconsciously projected Russian and USSR history into his analysis. His research is being read by US policy makers, and may have resulted in the current decoupling and embargo policies enacted by Biden White House. The problem is, what is his analysis is wrong, and that this will only lead to China innovating and eventually overtaking and dominating semiconductors. What will happen to the USA, to Europe and to Japan?
China's claims of accomplishment in the field of EUV machine development are highly suspect. The fact that 20% of the youth are unemployed and that local governments are struggling to repay their debts suggests that the government's investment in this area will be difficult to come by and even if it does just look at their 'big fund' it resulted in nothing but corruption. Additionally, the EUV machine is a complex and challenging technology to develop, and China's lack of transparency in this area makes it difficult to verify their claims. China has a history of making false or misleading claims about its technological capabilities. For example, in 2019, the Chinese government claimed to have developed a quantum computer that was more powerful than any other in the world. However, this claim was later debunked by experts. It is therefore likely that China's accomplishments in this area have been overstated.
But no jobs because the CCP bullies foreigners as it bullies Chinese people and Chinese environment. Don’t believe the Chinese media; Its primary function is impression management.
Professor Miller says it’s almost impossible for China to catch up with the west in high end chip making. What about just forgetting moor’s law and developing new methods similar to graphene based chips or completely new technologies as it was new energy vehicles. China couldn’t compete with the west in legacy technologies such as ICE making however in battery teck China and the west were at the same stage when competition started. So, what happened at the end Chinese are leading now. Could someone please answer my question that what if china 🇨🇳 develops completely new technology in chip making which based on new materials and completely free from moor’s law and existing chip making technologies?
He forgets the nature of human being when they get cornered they'll come up with solutions you never imagine. Not just human being, even animals will find the way out.
The leading nations have been working on ways to innovate in chips since the end of Moore's Law (and it did end in ~2005). They've had limited success. It would probably be easier for China to follow the West. But, of course, it's an enormous country and it has the resources to try following and innovating at the same time.
What if... my 10 year old asks me "what if" all the time and I'll give you the same answer. Worry now about reality. Part of that is going to be highly speculative and low probability scenarios, but a larger part of your thought should be what's in front of you.
Chris is great and his analysis is indispensable, but he misuses the term "semiconductor." What he usually means is "integrated circuit." There are many other electronic elements that are semiconductors, but the critical element--and the one he's talking about--is the integrated circuit. And, he's talking about CMOS digital integrated circuits; there are other also-critical types of integrated circuits (for analog circuits, e.g.). His lack of precision in this regard is puzzling and frankly troubling.
Thank you. Very interesting. Did japan compete with the Netherlands for the dominance of lithography at a certain point of time? If so, why did they lose?
This is such an interesting video. There is so much information and also nuance. It all comes down to the question that China will catch up or not. The assumption is that china will not. That is why the strategy is defensive. Close this. Ban that. That is how we contain china. We cannot predict the future. Let's look at the past. Google had exited the Chinese market, only to realize that the Chinese tech sector is doing fine without them. As a matter of fact, doing much better without them. I am not saying the us should not counter play. But did defensive strategy ever work for a long run? Chinese say, there is no way to prevent thefts everyday for a thousand days. Westerns have underestimated the Chinese and still do. That is the real issue here. The author mentioned himself, the one that brought this issue up is not any of the westerns, but the Japanese.
The answer is yes: there has been a quite a competition. I think ASML pulled ahead with 2 inmovations: dual stage concept (twin scan), and a lead in immersion lithography.
@@kiwiy5802 "The author mentioned himself, the one that brought this issue up is not any of the westerns, but the Japanese." First of all, I take what people state (including Chris Miller) with a grain of salt. How can anyone prove the validity of the statement that Japan was one that brought this issue up and not another country? The Chinese initiated the BRI partially because they wanted to reduce the impact of blockages to their traditional maritime trade routes. They built their own space station because they were barred from participating on the ISS. When they moved up the value chain in the tech sector, it makes sense that those already there would notice first. I watched "Shenzhen: The Silicon Valley of Hardware" which was posted 6 years ago and I've watched "Forgotten Thinkers: Mencius", "Chinese Language and Civilization", etc. Frankly, I'm not worried at all with the rise or reawakening of China. What I worry about is the reaction to it from the elites in places like the US and Western Europe and the propaganda / PR they pump out to raise tensions and start conflicts. Both Japan and Taiwan (Republic of China) / TSMC have the PRC as their largest trading partner. Why would they want war with PRC?
"Did japan compete with the Netherlands for the dominance of lithography at a certain point of time? If so, why did they lose?" - Try a search for "How ASML Won Lithography (& Why Japan Lost)" which is a video posted 1 year ago by Asianometry. As for why Japan lost overall, try searching and watching on UA-cam "Japan's economic crisis EXPLAINED in simple words", followed by "Prof Michael HUDSON - De-Dollarization - Toward the End of U.S. Monetary Hegemony?".
As for why monopolies exist, I would recommend watching "Karl Marx Life and Philosophy", a lecture by Wes Cecil posted 10 years ago. Then again, it's also intuitive as we learn more about human nature or the nature of a relatively few among the general human population.
Pushing Tech companies to relocate from China to Mexico or India is asinine. These technology companies are being asked to relocate to countries who at this very moment are organizing themselves into the the BRICS alliance led by China. Let's see how that works out.
OK, so we seem to have a pretty clear view - and control of the manufacturing of - the Si, or GaAs, or some similar material chips to be etched to house more and more individual capacitors, resistors, and what not; all with the purpose of controlled shuffling of electrons. But, has Prof Miller ever entertained a possibility for a breakthrough in the physics of these contraptions? Photons - or something else, rather than electrons - might be recruited in these novel devices in an either tighter-controlled or a multivariable way? What then of those 25 giga-dollar behemoth foundries?
I would like to add an alternative POV as a question. Given that the USA and Soviets were by far the most advanced in defense instruments. Would meetings between Zi & Vlad have also included Russia's contribution to building out the Chip industry? China has the execution muscle and Russia have fantastic physicists and engineers...."Rocketry related ..."
Your statements are outdated. With the disintegration of USSR, Russia is relatively weak and stagnant. With massive deindustrialization USA is deteriorating fast in every field. Can't even maintain basic infrastructures and military equipments.
Moore's law is a key reason why C. Miller says China won't catch up soon. Others are falling behing Taiwan. But making transistors smaller has a limit from the size of the atom. The smallest features are now 3nm or ~ 30 atoms. There isn't much room for getting smaller. A parallel technology is chiplet technology. While connecting chips on a circuit board will use wires 1mm in size, connecting chips in a chiplet will use wires with widths measured in microns. And in chiplet technology China is not that far behind. In the specialized area of NAND /flash memory China is on a par with Samsung and Micron. But another consequence of the US chip ban is that US chip companies have lost 40% of their revenue for the most advanced chips. On a 10yr time frame Miller's current conclusions I think are totally wrong. For decades, China's photovoltaic technology was behind the west. For decades their battery technology (for EVs) was behind Japan and Korea. ASPI's report in feb 2023 said that in 44 critical technologies for the 2rd century, the country publishing the most impactful scientific papers was China leading in 37 of the 44 topics.
96% loss for micron intel samsung & the Chinese r highly resilient they will work out this chip war & they will crush the competition who will miss the largest market
Dead wrong. 5 of the top 6 material scientists in America are Chinese. Chinese scientist makes the best crystals for lasers and USA REQUIRES is far behind.
Thank you MIT and Pr. Miller. Any chance you will add a new chapter in a next to come new edition of the book on disruptive new techs in computing science that might change the whole industry?
From where will the US get its raw materials for making chips? So, the US will start mining its own minerals? What's the time horizon if China implements a total ban on the raw materials for chip making?
The audio quality of this video is appalingly bad. It sounds like it was recorded in a broom cupboard with the speakers talking through a pillow. I gave up after 5 minutes, it took too much effort to hear what was being said.
This is quite a comprehensive talk about the Chip War and Taiwan. But as a Taiwanese, I think I should point out some minor errors: Morris Chang was never for transferring the technology to China. As a matter of fact, around 2004 when Taiwanese government was about to approve UMC to set up semiconductor manufacturing in China, TSMC was opposed to it openly.
Whoa - I did not know this. I had assumed that it was TSMC the company and not the govt that wanted to expand for more profit, as is usually the case. Why did the Taiwanese govt act this way?
@@be12 From what I gathered, the idea was lobbied by UMC, who was competing against TSMC fiercely. TSMC was against expanding out of Taiwan all the time. They had the most advanced technology and they did not need to manufacture anywhere else. Their customers would come to them. UMC, on the other hand, was trying to get an upper hand in China by setting up manufacturing there. It did not quite work. At the end, because of the heavy opposition from TSMC, Taiwanese government relaxed "a little", allowing the less advanced technology to transfer.
In conclusion, U.S. is still want to be the world leader, and they will not settle to be second. U.S. political arena is also willing to be at all cost to stay on number one.
Ben Franklin Poem "for the want of the nail the shoe was lost..." It is true all the extraordinary number of Tool FAB components must not fail, is it also true that not all Tool FAB components are critical components? If China has access to operational Tool FAB, how long would it take to sort components. How can the US government expect to keep some critical components under wraps, if the USPO keeps publishing?
An excellent talk and Chris quoted that "The weapon factories in thirty years time will be data centres" and this is so insightful with profound implications. Chris was struggling to find an innovation curve that beat Moore's Law. I argue in the following talk that there is an example of more rapid innovation in the following talk "Introduction to Moore's Law on Open Source steroids" ua-cam.com/video/H0gg_biZoMs/v-deo.html
Critical technology? Really? May be? We need to be more competitive in term of science and technology education, research investment in science. We have spent way too much on wars.
I think chip development will hit a wall sometime soon meaning atoms are .1nm and quantum tunneling is becoming an issue more and more the smaller we get. Unless new physics are discovered, I even doubt a 1nm chip will be a viable option. Maybe if quantun computing becomes viable but we are almost at the end of the road!
The atomic radius of silicon is 0.132nm, diameter is 0.264nm. You need gallium nitride to make a single semiconductor unit and a few layers of them to prevent quantum tunneling. Do a simple math to figure out how many nanometers one can achieve.
The author's assumption that China will never catch up under the pressure of relentless decoupling efforts by the US government is the weakest part of his book. The Chinese have proven their capability of catching up and exceeding in highly complicated technologies like high speed trains, infrastructure, 5G, Li-ion batteries and EVs. Also, he forgot that many Taiwanese regard themselves as Chinese, so a high percentage of the TSMC engineers will end up working for China after Taiwan is taken over by China.
TSM can produce nothing without the Dutch ASML litho machines, if China can lay their hands on the ASML machines they will lead the world in Ai in a short time
**Summary of Key Highlights:** 1. **Introduction and Context:** - **Speaker and Book Introduction:** Chris Miller, author of *Chip War*, explores the geopolitics, economics, and technology that underpin the semiconductor industry. The book focuses on the global competition for control over semiconductor technology. - **Background:** Miller began studying the role of computing power in military competition during the Cold War, particularly how the U.S. gained a technological edge over the Soviet Union. 2. **Semiconductors and Military Technology:** - **Historical Gap Between U.S. and Soviet Union:** The Soviet Union recognized the importance of computing in military advancements but couldn't match the U.S. due to production challenges, despite having smart physicists and substantial defense budgets. - **Current Geopolitical Landscape:** The struggle for technological dominance continues today, especially between the U.S. and China. Semiconductors remain crucial for military applications and economic security. 3. **Global Semiconductor Supply Chain:** - **Concentration and Vulnerabilities:** The global semiconductor supply chain is highly concentrated. Taiwan's TSMC produces 90% of the world's most advanced processor chips, while Dutch firm ASML dominates the extreme ultraviolet lithography machine market. This concentration poses significant risks in the event of geopolitical instability. - **U.S.-Led Internationalization:** The U.S. government has historically worked to bind key allies and partners (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) into the semiconductor supply chain for strategic and economic reasons. 4. **China’s Industrial Policy and U.S. Response:** - **China’s Ambitions:** In 2014, China launched major initiatives to reduce dependence on imported semiconductors. The government poured billions into domestic semiconductor production but continues to lag behind global leaders. - **U.S. Strategy:** The U.S. implemented the CHIPS Act to boost domestic production and R&D while restricting Chinese access to key technologies. Export controls target both software and machinery tools required for advanced chip manufacturing. 5. **Future Risks and Military Implications:** - **Supply Chain Risks:** Disruption in Taiwan could paralyze global electronics manufacturing, affecting smartphones, PCs, cars, and more. Military systems, increasingly reliant on computing power, could also be affected. - **China-U.S. Competition:** China is trying to catch up technologically, but exponential progress in semiconductors remains challenging. The U.S. aims to widen the technology gap to maintain its advantage, particularly in AI and military systems. 6. **Industry Structure and Innovation:** - **Oligopolies and Innovation:** The semiconductor industry has unique barriers to entry due to high R&D costs and rapid innovation cycles. Despite the oligopolistic structure, there is still significant innovation, particularly in chip design and specialized components. 7. **Final Takeaways:** - **Complexity and Importance:** Semiconductor manufacturing is the most complex manufacturing process in human history, requiring precision tools and specialized software. - **Global Influence:** Control over semiconductor technology directly influences global economic and military power. Competition between the U.S. and China will shape the future of computing and technological leadership. Overall, Miller emphasizes that semiconductors are not just another commodity but a strategic resource pivotal for the balance of global power.
Are cutting edge chips and computing power that crucial for advanced weapon systems? Russia's semiconductor industry is even less developed than China's, but drones aside, its weapon systems like hypersonic missiles and S-500 air defense systems are superior to the US's
nice speach... but he forgets what people are possible to do if they got under pressure or if there is "no way out"...they find a way. he completely underestimate the ability of chinese people ( and not the gouvernment) to solve problems. i live here and can see every day things finished in one year other countries need ten...and finally he is a history professor...a good one but not more
Best not to pick a tech fight with China. They had not a single tank or a plane in 1949, and in Korea war, also ostracised by UN. Despite the turmoils of communism, they caught up on a-bomb, now their own version of Int Space Station, and become No2. They’re a stronger partner to US, don’t make them the enemy
if you think that way, you would better to prepared to bow down to winnie the poo jinping authority, When that time comes, you couldn't even be able to go to restroom by yourself!
Brendon O Connell (on UA-cam) has been researching Israeli theft of American computer technology since 2009 when he learned about the Israeli Talpiot program and the US Israeli BIRD program, where US transfers to Israel our sensitive technology, owned by the US Taxpayers.u
That sounds like a lot of how do I put it anti-Semitic nonsense. Israel did not need to steal any of that as they have their industrial relationships with the US. Many Israeli companies in the tech sector are sponsored by US corporations and they pay for the rights to develop their technology. You and that fella you referenced are full of crap.
I have a theory : We Taiwan are not only ahead of everybody in the chip manufacture industry as the no. 1, we also seem leading the trend of Election-style of Democracy in the world! U. S. seems to follow us: our Jan. 6th Riot happened in 2014, 8 yrs ahead of U. S. ! And even better, our Jan. 6 succeeded! The rebellious rioters got to occupy our highest legislature for as long as 3 weeks! They not only paralyzed the government for that length of time, they also successfully changed our government from a pro-China Party to our current anti-China one in the following presidential election in 2016! The New government in 2016 not only immediately exonerated those participated in our Jan. 6 Riot, its Party also nominated leaders of them as political candidates in the next election! It also wrote the Riot into our school textbooks as a wonderful democratic rebellion, hailing participants as heroes! By the way, the supporters of our current government tend to be fanatic fans of Donald Trump. Of course now seeing that Biden government seems to further anti-China trend than D. Trump, our government immediately becomes supportive of his re-election too. U. S. Security institutions, you should also pay just as much attention to Taiwanese influence of your country as to that of alleged China influence; after all we made a lot of money from our semi-conductor chips which power your iPhones! And our government is not frugal in spending this digital fortune that it inherits from previous pro-China governments who were the real cultivators of our current technology gems. The current incumbent DDP Party is just a lucky beneficiary , but it certainly uses it to its full advantage : politicizes it and weaponizes it, telling Trump government that China actually totally relies on our advanced chip supply, which led to U. S. ban of sales of all advanced chip and tools to China! Our lucky current government also uses the fortune to buy up main TV stations and mass media in Taiwan so that now most of our voters only hear about his bad China is all day long and blamed most of our domestic problems to Chinese influence!
so all the people did not bother to counter this, they will end up like Ukraine where the "protector" protects to the last taiwanese soldier n with Taiwan becomes completely devastated even if the "protector" wins. Don't the people see this? Kick out the anti china government and declare neutrality and deny any outside interference. Then the elephants will go fight in some other gardens n your grass would not suffer.
If your government were truly anti-China, your government would spend much more on defense and have a much smarter defense plan. I think if China invaded Taiwan's military would quickly surrender.
Therefore the riot of 2014 leads to the colour revolution of the 2016 election. That Tsai woman has hollowed out Taiwan in 8 years and I cannot believe the people living in Taiwan is so clueless about this. The youth unemployment in Taiwan is high and a young person in Taiwan earns on average $12K a year. Are these young people in front of their reality still being brainwashed by the media. Mr Ma is in the Mainland at the moment and I have noticed that Taiwan's news is very biased and it is rather shocking. I also think the people in some parts of Taiwan is suffering with lack of water and sure enough these people should know that the current government has not invested in Taiwan's infrastructure and this is why they are suffering. If the KMT is in charged, I am sure they would ask the Mainland for help and build enough reservoirs to ease the situation. I also notice that at the moment the Taiwan government is drilling for water, using underground water, and I suppose the people of Taiwan know the negative consequences of this terrible action. I wish the people in Taiwan well and I hope they make the right decision next year and do not allow Taiwan to be used as a US chess piece.
"We Taiwan" eh? But whoever you are, that's an interesting story. If you'd provide some links to Taiwanese or Chinese publications detailing it a bit more then I'd be glad to check em out.
you already lost...just living in denial Go and find out who is Chinese scientist Huang Lung Yi and Loongson chips and can you rival Huawei's Mate 60 Pro
Not being a scientist it seems to me that the marginal benefit of being at the top of R&D is not directly proportional to the investments made from the military point of view. I can see the commercial gains for software and machine tools companies because this way they can maintain the oligopoly and/or monopoly. The benefits curb for military purposes will be far from exponential
It was cheaper for China to buy reliable Western chips, benefiting both sides. China spends more on chip imports than on oil. The "Made in China 2025" initiative provided substantial funds for chip development, but companies were hesitant due to technical challenges and the risk of competing with established players like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC. With US sanctions, China shifted focus, prompting the emergence of new chip research companies and increased government subsidies, making domestic chip development a top priority for Chinese research institutions. When self-sufficient, China can provide the world with cheaper chips, while the West and its allies lose access to both the Chinese and global markets. The US is developing its own supply chain, but without access to a large market, it cannot be competitive. The US is leaving no knees untouched in its Tonya Harding competition strategy. The Chinese are very grateful to the US for pushing them towards self-sufficiency. Thanks to the US, China now has its own GPS system and space program. More sanctions, please.
Why and where and how the chip would or should be the most critical technology???? This is very odd. Then the moderator said ".... professor of "HISTORY....."! The question ends by itself.
America by declaring the Chip war, forced China to Create the whole supply chain locally. A huge challenge that the Chinese are willing to take. Last month they succeeded in making their own lithography machine capable of stitching 28nm chips. If the Chinese keep going with the speed of progress they'll reach the capability of The dutch company ASML in few years and gonna change the whole world of technology.
I am always leery of authors who claim to be experts but have limited knowledge from the very beginning. What does a history professor knows of microchips, except superficially.
I take your point about experts. But he can read, and he has the ability to learn and apply himself to understanding the microchip sphere of knowledge. I'd say that he has obviously applied himself to that task reasonably competently.
This Chris Miller guy has no clue but I bet he made a lot of money writing a book full of misinformation, My guess is he is not EE professor as in Electrical Engineering but some English Exclusive major.
A person who 1. have no first hand understanding of the tech and the operation of the chip industry, 2 have no indepth research of the data of the market and industry concerned, 3 no research and understanding of the China industry, culture, characters, capabilities, capacities, history and responses in similar challenge. Actually dare to write a book on chip war between US and China? O M G!!!!!!!!!!
Do you know know how chips started? It was started from 4000 phd Chinese engineers at Silicon Valley sin 1970s. US sanction export chips to China. Just recently I watch a podcast about Huawei is now making the new chips. China cancelled their $90 million chips order.
There is nothing wrong with Chinese people? The problem is the evil Chinese regime that bullies it’s people and it’s neighbors. That’s why it has so few friends. That’s why Chinese can win Nobel prizes if they live in the US but not if they live in China.
@@kreek22 small town, an artisan carpenter gets up from the bed, discovers he has a talent with wood (how? who knows) starts fining wood, and selling. Town loves the knickknacks. Soon houses are full of tiny knickknacks, kids love em, can't get enough of em, adults start selling em outside the town, bag margins. A bunch of goons come and start seeking rent from the carpenter, start threatening him, then spreading bad words about him and his business, accusing his crafts have special termites that enter the brains and start townfolks alive from within, no proof given. Town is in the grip of fear psychosis. Soon townfolks gather outside his shop with tikki torches. Carpenter leaves the town. Soon, real termites show up and starts eating all the knickknacks. People realise there is no carpenter or low skilled carpenter in the town.
I have desktop computers from 2014 and they run current 2023 software on Windows 10 faster than my new 2023 laptop with Windows 11. I have an iPhone 8 from 2017 and yes it is a little slower than the iPhone 14, but the functionality is still the same. The conclusion is that hardware advances do not matter unless supported by software advances. The reality is that is high end chips are "luxury" goods that people pay a premium for but do not actually increase functionality. As with a lot of things, what we need is not the "best", but just "good enough" to solve our problem. China went their own way with their own space station. It is a risky bet that they cannot come up with their own supply chain that is enough to supply the needs.
China is already developing better and better chips. It will be just a few years when China will be the leader in chip making, just like in other fields.
😂😂😂 He did not know that the chip technology and industry is practically build by enginners and scientists, where 90% of them are ethnic Chinese. It takes the hardwork, discipline and brain of ethnic Chinese to make it work. Well, what will happen next needs no argument.
I hate to give academic content a thumbs-down, but there is so much misinformation and wrong conclusions in this talk tat it would be dishonest of be to not do so9 and warn viewers not to accept thus uncritically. I will suggest Professor Miller stick to Russian history because IC practitioners such as I would take his thesis apart in minutes. I find it appalling that MIT would host such an inaccurate talk, you should do better.
Moore's law is not a issue here. TSMC and Samsung succeeded due to availability of Western technologies, optimal utilization of capital and disciplined procedural operation skills. Japan lost semiconductor dominance due to unoptimal utilization of capital. US lost foundry capability due to poor capital investment and poor operation discipline. Biggest concern for semiconductor foundry is yield rate and US couldn't keep up with Japanese yield rate due to undesciplined female operators in clean room with simple things like completely covering their hair and male operators from not burping after having spicy food for lunch. Why did Intel fail to advance their foundry capability beyond 7nm wafers? I doubt government subsidy would help Intel, but Micron has been more successful against Asian competitor. Although US government did have to help Micron few times by claiming Asian competitor violated US dumping regulations by acceting their government subsidies or violated alleged Micron IP. The success of CHIPs Act will depend on how well US convince TSMC and Samsung to build and share their technologies here in US without their intellectual property will not be devulged with US foundries. Since CHIPs Act already has clauses to share processes and refund windfall profits, true cooperation with TSMC and Samsung will not be easy. Samsung has lost lawsuits with Apple only in US, but not in any other countries. Even when Samsung when a lawsuit when Apple copied Samsung technology, Obama pardoned Apple. Many Asian chip manufacturers have similar experiences. Having Asian advisors on US negotiating team would help but currently all US negotiators seems to be all caucasian.
By the way, if US could continue to keep Western semiconductor equipment, EDA softwares, certain materials used by foundry, and availability of TSMC and Samsung engineers from Chinese recruitment then US should win against China in semiconductor war. Work with Taiwan and Korea to stop supplying China with latest APs and memory chips by providing incentives. For Taiwan, supplying them with long promised F-16 would help especially since Biden stopped sales of F-35 allowed by Trump.
Excellent interview/talk and this is the best audio that MIT can provide? Most podcasters in their basement do a better job at audio. The video is excellent to not be too negative.
The book is fascinating. My thanks to the author for clarifying the history of chip evolving into huge geopolitical problems.
Hats off to the great physicists all the intellectual inputs and highest level of engineering expenses.
Unfortunately, his research was faulty and he makes a lot of errors and wrong conclusions.
Yes hats off to John bardeen
@@unreliablenarrator6649 Like what? Can you expand on this please?
for p@jeeeeeeeed standard - definitely.
John bardeen inventor of the transistor and the only person ever to win two Nobel prizes.
Great event despite the audio quality is not so good.
In the 7 months after this discussion, China has cancelled billions in orders for US chips and build their own 7 nm n+2 chip. Although Chris analysis is logical he may have totally underestimated China's ability to innovate and the time it would take for China to catch up. That necessity is the mother of invention is demonstrated by China's ability to produce their own 5G chip in the face of US high tech embargoes.. I think China will continue to surprise the US and the world how fast they will close the gap whether in developing the tools or software to design and manufacture chips. Soon they will roll out their own AI chip..and more
China still cant do sub 5 nm chip competitively though. Its all for show.
@TerraBangkok you obviously has psychological issue. Seek help!
@@TerraBangkokyou are now proven more than wrong.
@@TerraBangkok But you forgot there is only 1 company that can do 5nm with high yield. All for the show is the fact that within about 4 years they have moved from not being able to make 7nm chip to now they can. Also let me remind you that very first thing that Chinese sat out to do is to dominate the legacy or matured technology chips, they are doubling their capability in less than 10 years.
Creativy comes from scarcity and deprivation. With a strong foundations on education in science and mathematics and a billion people, progress is inevitable.
True. But there are also + 1 billion people on the other side.
The author has forgotten that the Chinese are very resilient people, they survive under all kinds of circumstances, given my experience as a Chinese diaspora. Look at most of the movers and the chip workers in the U.S., Netherlands, besides Taiwan, they are of Chinese descent. Time will tell.
The greatest fear of a great nation should always be the leaders of the nation. Mao killed more Chinese than any foreign invader ever did.
These westerners have high egos
Without intent to spark politics debate..Taiwanese people are actually Chinese..so actually several Chinese people are CEOs of TSMC, UMC, Nvidia, AMD etc.
It is not that he forgotten, he simply don't have the intellect.
Given how wrong his book has been proven to be, his professorship should have been ended by now.
I understand and agree with this statement, but I still implore you to remain optimistic in your approach to thoughts of unity between China US Russia. 🙏🏿🙏🏾🙏🏽🙏🏼🙏🏻
Please, please, please hire someone to provide better audio for this important content. The audio is the MOST important aspect in any talking head video.
You can hear everything miller says.
Its most likely the quality of the chip in the mic is badly made in America. lol
Most likely the main presentation was for the people in the room, not us.
This video is just 7 months and its assessment of China's chip producing capabilities has been demonstrated as being completely off. Incredible. Fast moving field indeed.
Can you say more?
@@comets4saleChina is already producing 7nm chips which the west figured they would take years to achieve.
The American led west is falling behind as the east rises. Russia, China and the growing BRICS union have the west beat....
The fallacy of this talk is to assume that China needs to catch up with the same chip technology. But one forgets that restrictive policy from the US will force China to catch up by improving the current technology or new technology (quantum computing, graphene, etc). Of course it is hard but protectionism will not work. In fact most US chip companies are doing terrible now as the demand from China has slowed.
What US chip companies? You don't know what you're talking about.
@@kreek22 so what bs do you know? So Intel, nvidia, qualcomm are not US companies? Your stupidity is astounding
Re your statement that US will force China to catch up by improving current technology or innovate into new technologies like Graphene chips and Quantum computing:
1. Silicon semiconductor is the current technology and they are no where in that field. That's the crux of Miller's talk.
2. Emerging technology like those are still decades away. Quantum computing is unlikely to be widely available consumer devices due to the physics involved. Zero kelvin devices are hard to carry around. Graphene and other materials (eg GaN) has been well studied and lots of companies are doing things there including TSMC. Nobody is standing still waiting for China to catch up.
@@fitzwilliamdarcy3328 true. You are right. But not all consumer goods require 2nm or even 5nm chip. That’s why china is importing far less chip because they are capable making higher nm chip.
Although other options may appear far away but when the situation is desperate (for china) breakthroughs may happen. Eg. covid vaccine was developed in record time
@@jamesbookman5160 I think the US government isn't concerned about 14nm chips or older. We don't want to make printers, microwave ovens, or other consumer electronics.
Trying to cut China off, rather than making US more competitive, will not likely work. Anyone will know that once having carefully studied the cases of GPS and space station programs. US once cut China off in one of the Taiwan strait tensions in the 1990s. The end result is that China now has its own Global Positioning System, called Bei Dou. Similarly, US did not allow China to participate in the international space station program, and China now has its own international space station, called Tian Gong, while the international space station is going to retire in a couple of years. Once China is no longer importing all these chips (whether by US embargo or China becoming self reliant), US and others following US may have to “eat” all those chips like Potato chips. China has never wanted to be an enemy of US, or anyone for this matter, but US keeps pushing China harder and harder to become an enemy.
China has never wanted to be an enemy of the US or anyone…. What “can’t we all just get along” planet are you from? Good grief.
Do you know how far is China away from US? Do you know that notwithstanding the distance, US has more than 400 military bases around the Chinese coast? Do you know that China just broke a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran? What US has done in the Middle East over the last 20 years or so? Killing millions of innocent people, and dislocating many millions more. Without US meddling, there will be no war in the Taiwan strait, and probably most parts of the world.
@@joyfarmer5087 ok now I know what planet you’re on. Thanks.
@@kevinmalloy2180ow many Chinese bases surround America? How many of America's neighbors does china have a security pact with? How many of America's neighbors has china invaded? How many countries have china invaded since 1979?
China is not a market economy and does no innovate. Cutting them off from Chips will set their industrial economy back 50 years.
With integrated computing their is no chemical processing, communications systems, automation or weapons guidance systems.
China is currently about 9 years behind in chip tech. What the Americans are assuming is continued progress in chip innovation. If innovation slows down, it becomes easier for China to catch up. I bet it slows down by 2030 at the latest.
You also don’t know what your are talking about. Innovation never slows down Einstein. It is generally trending Moore’s Law. The industry will likely slow down due to oversupply and protectionism as China’s demand for US high end chips are decreasing rapidly.
@@jamesbookman5160 Consistent nonsense. I hope you invest your money based on your ideas.
Seems like China might be slowed down again. No way they figure out ASML tech.
@@sirus312 Not really China is going with a approach that not only look at the high end chips but also legacy chips. The Legacy chips are the one not talked about but it is what is most needed at the moment. Without ASML SMIC will be test for their skill and knowledge in making the chip with older chip making machine, they are doing a fine job with it.
For a talk center on microchip, I wish the speaker had a deeper understanding about the technology. But university professors need to give talks and write books. And chip war is popular!
I’ve worked in the semi industry for 30 years, he seems to have a dam good grasp of the technology to me.
What is lacking
@@I999-g2syou are now proven to be wrong.
Kind of interesting that wafer size has moved way beyond polycrystalline wafers used in PV manufacturing.
You are right
Amazing, insightful and fascinating presentation and discussion. BRAVO!!! Thank you Professor Miller.
Never ever underestimate your adversary -- Sun Tze in The Art of War approximate 350 BC.
America is the equivalent to Israel being told to repent. China is likened to Rome. The real 3rd Reich...
Always surprised when the audio is this bad in a premier university
So many times Prof Chris Miller has said it is very hard. Engineers would not be so sure about it. We have seen it with lot of other really high tech in areas of aerospace.
Seen what
Well unlike the previous examples that were touted as "hard" chip manufacturing is the real deal. It is indeed a very very difficult industry to be in.
Aerospace is a lot easier than chip making, the fact that you don't know that tells me everything i need to know.
Re: Moore's Law, while not all ions are the same size, as the desired feature size becomes smaller, the mask lines and later beamline implant accuracy must improve. This relationship between feature size and accuracy is likely true for digital circuits, mixed signal A/D, analog op amps, FPGA and specialty chips. In addition, each chip categories is as different as horses, birds or butterflies, to wit they are different products, markets, and prices. I am looking forward to reading your book. You are covering enormous changes in scale from countries to ions. Bravo
The world 🌎 is Control by Technology, this is very Educative information, thanks alot for sharing.
Last year, there were 11.84 million new graduates walked out of the Chinese colleges. 60% or more of them has tech fields degrees. A bad news, China just announced that the first EUV light source prototype has been developed domastically. This is the most important/critical part of all parts used in the EUV machine.
The author of this book was originally a Russian History academic, so he may have unconsciously projected Russian and USSR history into his analysis. His research is being read by US policy makers, and may have resulted in the current decoupling and embargo policies enacted by Biden White House. The problem is, what is his analysis is wrong, and that this will only lead to China innovating and eventually overtaking and dominating semiconductors. What will happen to the USA, to Europe and to Japan?
China's claims of accomplishment in the field of EUV machine development are highly suspect. The fact that 20% of the youth are unemployed and that local governments are struggling to repay their debts suggests that the government's investment in this area will be difficult to come by and even if it does just look at their 'big fund' it resulted in nothing but corruption. Additionally, the EUV machine is a complex and challenging technology to develop, and China's lack of transparency in this area makes it difficult to verify their claims. China has a history of making false or misleading claims about its technological capabilities. For example, in 2019, the Chinese government claimed to have developed a quantum computer that was more powerful than any other in the world. However, this claim was later debunked by experts. It is therefore likely that China's accomplishments in this area have been overstated.
Chris Miller has a tunnel vision and drawn conclusion prematurely
But no jobs because the CCP bullies foreigners as it bullies Chinese people and Chinese environment. Don’t believe the Chinese media; Its primary function is impression management.
Professor Miller says it’s almost impossible for China to catch up with the west in high end chip making. What about just forgetting moor’s law and developing new methods similar to graphene based chips or completely new technologies as it was new energy vehicles. China couldn’t compete with the west in legacy technologies such as ICE making however in battery teck China and the west were at the same stage when competition started. So, what happened at the end Chinese are leading now. Could someone please answer my question that what if china 🇨🇳 develops completely new technology in chip making which based on new materials and completely free from moor’s law and existing chip making technologies?
Absolutely
He forgets the nature of human being when they get cornered they'll come up with solutions you never imagine. Not just human being, even animals will find the way out.
Scarcity is the source of creativity. Given the abundance of brain power.
The leading nations have been working on ways to innovate in chips since the end of Moore's Law (and it did end in ~2005). They've had limited success. It would probably be easier for China to follow the West. But, of course, it's an enormous country and it has the resources to try following and innovating at the same time.
What if... my 10 year old asks me "what if" all the time and I'll give you the same answer. Worry now about reality. Part of that is going to be highly speculative and low probability scenarios, but a larger part of your thought should be what's in front of you.
Im sorry, I was anticipating this presentation but I felt the voice quality can be better considering the time that this presentation was taken
seemingly only few that dont get influenced, using the term "WAR" in war times - u think thats more stopping or fueling it?
Chris is great and his analysis is indispensable, but he misuses the term "semiconductor." What he usually means is "integrated circuit." There are many other electronic elements that are semiconductors, but the critical element--and the one he's talking about--is the integrated circuit. And, he's talking about CMOS digital integrated circuits; there are other also-critical types of integrated circuits (for analog circuits, e.g.). His lack of precision in this regard is puzzling and frankly troubling.
He forgot to mention the very mature semiconductor industry and supply chain.
read his book, its all there, traces the complete history, from vacum tubes to transistors, integrated circuits and semiconductors
Oh look we have an armchair expert. Some of you are just ridiculous.
s[mall]m[ind]
Fish'n 'chips', the cheapest lunch in town, serve it in up a bowl or wrapped in newspaper; no problem for China.
I think the audio system was made in the US not China. Shame MIT engineer did not check it before broadcasting.
Thank you. Very interesting. Did japan compete with the Netherlands for the dominance of lithography at a certain point of time? If so, why did they lose?
This is such an interesting video. There is so much information and also nuance. It all comes down to the question that China will catch up or not. The assumption is that china will not. That is why the strategy is defensive. Close this. Ban that. That is how we contain china. We cannot predict the future. Let's look at the past. Google had exited the Chinese market, only to realize that the Chinese tech sector is doing fine without them. As a matter of fact, doing much better without them. I am not saying the us should not counter play. But did defensive strategy ever work for a long run? Chinese say, there is no way to prevent thefts everyday for a thousand days. Westerns have underestimated the Chinese and still do. That is the real issue here. The author mentioned himself, the one that brought this issue up is not any of the westerns, but the Japanese.
The answer is yes: there has been a quite a competition. I think ASML pulled ahead with 2 inmovations: dual stage concept (twin scan), and a lead in immersion lithography.
@@kiwiy5802 "The author mentioned himself, the one that brought this issue up is not any of the westerns, but the Japanese." First of all, I take what people state (including Chris Miller) with a grain of salt. How can anyone prove the validity of the statement that Japan was one that brought this issue up and not another country? The Chinese initiated the BRI partially because they wanted to reduce the impact of blockages to their traditional maritime trade routes. They built their own space station because they were barred from participating on the ISS. When they moved up the value chain in the tech sector, it makes sense that those already there would notice first. I watched "Shenzhen: The Silicon Valley of Hardware" which was posted 6 years ago and I've watched "Forgotten Thinkers: Mencius", "Chinese Language and Civilization", etc. Frankly, I'm not worried at all with the rise or reawakening of China. What I worry about is the reaction to it from the elites in places like the US and Western Europe and the propaganda / PR they pump out to raise tensions and start conflicts. Both Japan and Taiwan (Republic of China) / TSMC have the PRC as their largest trading partner. Why would they want war with PRC?
"Did japan compete with the Netherlands for the dominance of lithography at a certain point of time? If so, why did they lose?" - Try a search for "How ASML Won Lithography (& Why Japan Lost)" which is a video posted 1 year ago by Asianometry. As for why Japan lost overall, try searching and watching on UA-cam "Japan's economic crisis EXPLAINED in simple words", followed by "Prof Michael HUDSON - De-Dollarization - Toward the End of U.S. Monetary Hegemony?".
As for why monopolies exist, I would recommend watching "Karl Marx Life and Philosophy", a lecture by Wes Cecil posted 10 years ago. Then again, it's also intuitive as we learn more about human nature or the nature of a relatively few among the general human population.
Pushing Tech companies to relocate from China to Mexico or India is asinine. These technology companies are being asked to relocate to countries who at this very moment are organizing themselves into the the BRICS alliance led by China. Let's see how that works out.
BRICS don't automatically equate to China camp in the way that NATO automatically equate to US camp
If the US wasn't planning endless wars and hegemonic control the location of production would not be an issue.
There is no BRICS. It's all just talk.
@@kreek22 Cope dude.
@@tipupakoro5729 If it makes you feel better, NATO is also just talk.
NATO = USA and servant states
BRICS = China and pseudo-allies
OK, so we seem to have a pretty clear view - and control of the manufacturing of - the Si, or GaAs, or some similar material chips to be etched to house more and more individual capacitors, resistors, and what not; all with the purpose of controlled shuffling of electrons. But, has Prof Miller ever entertained a possibility for a breakthrough in the physics of these contraptions? Photons - or something else, rather than electrons - might be recruited in these novel devices in an either tighter-controlled or a multivariable way? What then of those 25 giga-dollar behemoth foundries?
I would like to add an alternative POV as a question. Given that the USA and Soviets were by far the most advanced in defense instruments. Would meetings between Zi & Vlad have also included Russia's contribution to building out the Chip industry? China has the execution muscle and Russia have fantastic physicists and engineers...."Rocketry related ..."
Your statements are outdated. With the disintegration of USSR, Russia is relatively weak and stagnant. With massive deindustrialization USA is deteriorating fast in every field. Can't even maintain basic infrastructures and military equipments.
Moore's law is a key reason why C. Miller says China won't catch up soon. Others are falling behing Taiwan. But making transistors smaller has a limit from the size of the atom. The smallest features are now 3nm or ~ 30 atoms. There isn't much room for getting smaller. A parallel technology is chiplet technology. While connecting chips on a circuit board will use wires 1mm in size, connecting chips in a chiplet will use wires with widths measured in microns. And in chiplet technology China is not that far behind. In the specialized area of NAND /flash memory China is on a par with Samsung and Micron. But another consequence of the US chip ban is that US chip companies have lost 40% of their revenue for the most advanced chips. On a 10yr time frame Miller's current conclusions I think are totally wrong. For decades, China's photovoltaic technology was behind the west. For decades their battery technology (for EVs) was behind Japan and Korea. ASPI's report in feb 2023 said that in 44 critical technologies for the 2rd century, the country publishing the most impactful scientific papers was China leading in 37 of the 44 topics.
96% loss for micron intel samsung & the Chinese r highly resilient they will work out this chip war & they will crush the competition who will miss the largest market
Listening to this talk, and while reading the book, I'm even more interested in what is going on with the Arizona fab, and all the TSMC drama.
Great talk!
Actually most of material scientists and phycisists in top US tool manufacturing companies are russians:)
Dead wrong. 5 of the top 6 material scientists in America are Chinese. Chinese scientist makes the best crystals for lasers and USA REQUIRES is far behind.
Thank you MIT and Pr. Miller. Any chance you will add a new chapter in a next to come new edition of the book on disruptive new techs in computing science that might change the whole industry?
Quantum computing + AI will rule the world.
@@tocu9808 The first may not be possible, the second will probably end humankind.
From where will the US get its raw materials for making chips? So, the US will start mining its own minerals? What's the time horizon if China implements a total ban on the raw materials for chip making?
The audio quality of this video is appalingly bad. It sounds like it was recorded in a broom cupboard with the speakers talking through a pillow. I gave up after 5 minutes, it took too much effort to hear what was being said.
This is quite a comprehensive talk about the Chip War and Taiwan. But as a Taiwanese, I think I should point out some minor errors: Morris Chang was never for transferring the technology to China. As a matter of fact, around 2004 when Taiwanese government was about to approve UMC to set up semiconductor manufacturing in China, TSMC was opposed to it openly.
你說的沒錯 另一位 足以和張忠謀先生 齊名的台灣晶圓双雄 曹興誠 現在是多麼 反共
It wasn’t Morra Chang but Chinese engineers that worked at tsmc fab in China
Also Taiwan isn’t included in friendshoring
Whoa - I did not know this. I had assumed that it was TSMC the company and not the govt that wanted to expand for more profit, as is usually the case. Why did the Taiwanese govt act this way?
@@be12 From what I gathered, the idea was lobbied by UMC, who was competing against TSMC fiercely. TSMC was against expanding out of Taiwan all the time. They had the most advanced technology and they did not need to manufacture anywhere else. Their customers would come to them. UMC, on the other hand, was trying to get an upper hand in China by setting up manufacturing there. It did not quite work. At the end, because of the heavy opposition from TSMC, Taiwanese government relaxed "a little", allowing the less advanced technology to transfer.
Great talk but the audio was recorded with a microphone inside a sock submerged in molasses.
He is the cutest professor EVER!!
TRUE
In conclusion, U.S. is still want to be the world leader, and they will not settle to be second. U.S. political arena is also willing to be at all cost to stay on number one.
Yes, this is the inherent nature of geopolitics since humans settled down to farm.
@kreek22 Nope. This thinking is subscribed only by the barbaric west. The East, especially China does not think this way.
Ben Franklin Poem "for the want of the nail the shoe was lost..." It is true all the extraordinary number of Tool FAB components must not fail, is it also true that not all Tool FAB components are critical components? If China has access to operational Tool FAB, how long would it take to sort components. How can the US government expect to keep some critical components under wraps, if the USPO keeps publishing?
Ironic that this discussion on advanced technology has worse sound quality than the local hairdresser's new styles podcast.
An excellent talk and Chris quoted that "The weapon factories in thirty years time will be data centres" and this is so insightful with profound implications.
Chris was struggling to find an innovation curve that beat Moore's Law. I argue in the following talk that there is an example of more rapid innovation in the following talk "Introduction to Moore's Law on Open Source steroids"
ua-cam.com/video/H0gg_biZoMs/v-deo.html
Critical technology? Really? May be? We need to be more competitive in term of science and technology education, research investment in science. We have spent way too much on wars.
One Chip To Rule Them All.
Crazy
The most advanced chips aren’t very useful; they are basically for phones only. The less advanced chips are useful, which China can produce.
Congratulations, you are clearly the dumbest person in this comment section, not an easy task.
I think chip development will hit a wall sometime soon meaning atoms are .1nm and quantum tunneling is becoming an issue more and more the smaller we get. Unless new physics are discovered, I even doubt a 1nm chip will be a viable option. Maybe if quantun computing becomes viable but we are almost at the end of the road!
The atomic radius of silicon is 0.132nm, diameter is 0.264nm. You need gallium nitride to make a single semiconductor unit and a few layers of them to prevent quantum tunneling. Do a simple math to figure out how many nanometers one can achieve.
The author's assumption that China will never catch up under the pressure of relentless decoupling efforts by the US government is the weakest part of his book. The Chinese have proven their capability of catching up and exceeding in highly complicated technologies like high speed trains, infrastructure, 5G, Li-ion batteries and EVs. Also, he forgot that many Taiwanese regard themselves as Chinese, so a high percentage of the TSMC engineers will end up working for China after Taiwan is taken over by China.
No they haven’t proven anything, look at the state of Huawei today, they can’t compete outside of China anymore.
TSM can produce nothing without the Dutch ASML litho machines, if China can lay their hands on the ASML machines they will lead the world in Ai in a short time
it's clled C 0 P I U M I SM...HARDCORE STYLE. The survival frame of imperialists n vassals....when they can't face their fall.
More than 90% of ROC and PRC are Han. "Chinese" is a politically vague term. "Han" is a common ethnic term.
Young aspiring imperialist point view about semiconductor business. be careful what you say, it will result in war.
**Summary of Key Highlights:**
1. **Introduction and Context:**
- **Speaker and Book Introduction:** Chris Miller, author of *Chip War*, explores the geopolitics, economics, and technology that underpin the semiconductor industry. The book focuses on the global competition for control over semiconductor technology.
- **Background:** Miller began studying the role of computing power in military competition during the Cold War, particularly how the U.S. gained a technological edge over the Soviet Union.
2. **Semiconductors and Military Technology:**
- **Historical Gap Between U.S. and Soviet Union:** The Soviet Union recognized the importance of computing in military advancements but couldn't match the U.S. due to production challenges, despite having smart physicists and substantial defense budgets.
- **Current Geopolitical Landscape:** The struggle for technological dominance continues today, especially between the U.S. and China. Semiconductors remain crucial for military applications and economic security.
3. **Global Semiconductor Supply Chain:**
- **Concentration and Vulnerabilities:** The global semiconductor supply chain is highly concentrated. Taiwan's TSMC produces 90% of the world's most advanced processor chips, while Dutch firm ASML dominates the extreme ultraviolet lithography machine market. This concentration poses significant risks in the event of geopolitical instability.
- **U.S.-Led Internationalization:** The U.S. government has historically worked to bind key allies and partners (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) into the semiconductor supply chain for strategic and economic reasons.
4. **China’s Industrial Policy and U.S. Response:**
- **China’s Ambitions:** In 2014, China launched major initiatives to reduce dependence on imported semiconductors. The government poured billions into domestic semiconductor production but continues to lag behind global leaders.
- **U.S. Strategy:** The U.S. implemented the CHIPS Act to boost domestic production and R&D while restricting Chinese access to key technologies. Export controls target both software and machinery tools required for advanced chip manufacturing.
5. **Future Risks and Military Implications:**
- **Supply Chain Risks:** Disruption in Taiwan could paralyze global electronics manufacturing, affecting smartphones, PCs, cars, and more. Military systems, increasingly reliant on computing power, could also be affected.
- **China-U.S. Competition:** China is trying to catch up technologically, but exponential progress in semiconductors remains challenging. The U.S. aims to widen the technology gap to maintain its advantage, particularly in AI and military systems.
6. **Industry Structure and Innovation:**
- **Oligopolies and Innovation:** The semiconductor industry has unique barriers to entry due to high R&D costs and rapid innovation cycles. Despite the oligopolistic structure, there is still significant innovation, particularly in chip design and specialized components.
7. **Final Takeaways:**
- **Complexity and Importance:** Semiconductor manufacturing is the most complex manufacturing process in human history, requiring precision tools and specialized software.
- **Global Influence:** Control over semiconductor technology directly influences global economic and military power. Competition between the U.S. and China will shape the future of computing and technological leadership.
Overall, Miller emphasizes that semiconductors are not just another commodity but a strategic resource pivotal for the balance of global power.
So did you find out anything from my super computer? Solor Laser Keys
Are cutting edge chips and computing power that crucial for advanced weapon systems? Russia's semiconductor industry is even less developed than China's, but drones aside, its weapon systems like hypersonic missiles and S-500 air defense systems are superior to the US's
Russia is losing a war to a country one quarter of its size.
@@kreek22 with the support of US and western countries, you forgot!
@@JimY-g8p I think it was Putin who forgot.
I don't think you have seen what the U.S. has. The tech displayed is currently the old stuff.
What a wonderful presentation. Chris is such a great fact driven Storyteller. 👏
nice speach... but he forgets what people are possible to do if they got under pressure or if there is "no way out"...they find a way. he completely underestimate the ability of chinese people ( and not the gouvernment) to solve problems. i live here and can see every day things finished in one year other countries need ten...and finally he is a history professor...a good one but not more
Huawei release mate 60 pro with 5G 7nm chip, made in China, US lose the chip war in just 3 years
Thank you for this important presentation. Please investigate bettering the voice recordings. Get professional help.
This was excellent, thank you.
Best not to pick a tech fight with China. They had not a single tank or a plane in 1949, and in Korea war, also ostracised by UN. Despite the turmoils of communism, they caught up on a-bomb, now their own version of Int Space Station, and become No2. They’re a stronger partner to US, don’t make them the enemy
No point in talking sense to the US ruling caste. US workers might listen.
Delusional nonsense.
if you think that way, you would better to prepared to bow down to winnie the poo jinping authority, When that time comes, you couldn't even be able to go to restroom by yourself!
@@casteretpollux I guess I will just say middle finger to you communist lover!
Who knows the outcome of a Cold War2? Flash points are in Asia, Middle east and Europe now, but could propagate to as far as Argentina.
Brendon O Connell (on UA-cam) has been researching Israeli theft of American computer technology since 2009 when he learned about the Israeli Talpiot program and the US Israeli BIRD program, where US transfers to Israel our sensitive technology, owned by the US Taxpayers.u
That sounds like a lot of how do I put it anti-Semitic nonsense. Israel did not need to steal any of that as they have their industrial relationships with the US.
Many Israeli companies in the tech sector are sponsored by US corporations and they pay for the rights to develop their technology. You and that fella you referenced are full of crap.
Government doesn't invent anything
America is run by Israelis--call them Jews if you wish.
US has just helped set the life's goal of every young Chinese - be self reliant on integrated circuits. However hard, it's made by human.
Huawei mate 60 pro- am I a joke to you ?
The only machine that can produce the small nano chips is by ASML Holland, he could have told us!
👍
Damn the audio is horrible. MIT 2023 ... Come on!
I have a theory : We Taiwan are not only ahead of everybody in the chip manufacture industry as the no. 1, we also seem leading the trend of Election-style of Democracy in the world! U. S. seems to follow us: our Jan. 6th Riot happened in 2014, 8 yrs ahead of U. S. ! And even better, our Jan. 6 succeeded! The rebellious rioters got to occupy our highest legislature for as long as 3 weeks! They not only paralyzed the government for that length of time, they also successfully changed our government from a pro-China Party to our current anti-China one in the following presidential election in 2016! The New government in 2016 not only immediately exonerated those participated in our Jan. 6 Riot, its Party also nominated leaders of them as political candidates in the next election! It also wrote the Riot into our school textbooks as a wonderful democratic rebellion, hailing participants as heroes! By the way, the supporters of our current government tend to be fanatic fans of Donald Trump. Of course now seeing that Biden government seems to further anti-China trend than D. Trump, our government immediately becomes supportive of his re-election too. U. S. Security institutions, you should also pay just as much attention to Taiwanese influence of your country as to that of alleged China influence; after all we made a lot of money from our semi-conductor chips which power your iPhones! And our government is not frugal in spending this digital fortune that it inherits from previous pro-China governments who were the real cultivators of our current technology gems. The current incumbent DDP Party is just a lucky beneficiary , but it certainly uses it to its full advantage : politicizes it and weaponizes it, telling Trump government that China actually totally relies on our advanced chip supply, which led to U. S. ban of sales of all advanced chip and tools to China! Our lucky current government also uses the fortune to buy up main TV stations and mass media in Taiwan so that now most of our voters only hear about his bad China is all day long and blamed most of our domestic problems to Chinese influence!
so all the people did not bother to counter this, they will end up like Ukraine where the "protector" protects to the last taiwanese soldier n with Taiwan becomes completely devastated even if the "protector" wins. Don't the people see this? Kick out the anti china government and declare neutrality and deny any outside interference. Then the elephants will go fight in some other gardens n your grass would not suffer.
Thanks. I hadn't heard about your Colour Revolution US coup, same year as Ukraine's.
If your government were truly anti-China, your government would spend much more on defense and have a much smarter defense plan. I think if China invaded Taiwan's military would quickly surrender.
Therefore the riot of 2014 leads to the colour revolution of the 2016 election. That Tsai woman has hollowed out Taiwan in 8 years and I cannot believe the people living in Taiwan is so clueless about this.
The youth unemployment in Taiwan is high and a young person in Taiwan earns on average $12K a year. Are these young people in front of their reality still being brainwashed by the media.
Mr Ma is in the Mainland at the moment and I have noticed that Taiwan's news is very biased and it is rather shocking.
I also think the people in some parts of Taiwan is suffering with lack of water and sure enough these people should know that the current government has not invested in Taiwan's infrastructure and this is why they are suffering. If the KMT is in charged, I am sure they would ask the Mainland for help and build enough reservoirs to ease the situation. I also notice that at the moment the Taiwan government is drilling for water, using underground water, and I suppose the people of Taiwan know the negative consequences of this terrible action.
I wish the people in Taiwan well and I hope they make the right decision next year and do not allow Taiwan to be used as a US chess piece.
"We Taiwan" eh?
But whoever you are, that's an interesting story. If you'd provide some links to Taiwanese or Chinese publications detailing it a bit more then I'd be glad to check em out.
How long before they catch up on paper 2058
there is a table with seating available and there are people who are sitting in chairs, working on their laps. Wouldn't smart people use the table?
silly mit.
you already lost...just living in denial
Go and find out who is Chinese scientist Huang Lung Yi and Loongson chips and can you rival Huawei's Mate 60 Pro
even TSMC the ingrate now wanting to crawl back into China...lol
Not being a scientist it seems to me that the marginal benefit of being at the top of R&D is not directly proportional to the investments made from the military point of view. I can see the commercial gains for software and machine tools companies because this way they can maintain the oligopoly and/or monopoly. The benefits curb for military purposes will be far from exponential
It was cheaper for China to buy reliable Western chips, benefiting both sides. China spends more on chip imports than on oil. The "Made in China 2025" initiative provided substantial funds for chip development, but companies were hesitant due to technical challenges and the risk of competing with established players like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC. With US sanctions, China shifted focus, prompting the emergence of new chip research companies and increased government subsidies, making domestic chip development a top priority for Chinese research institutions. When self-sufficient, China can provide the world with cheaper chips, while the West and its allies lose access to both the Chinese and global markets.
The US is developing its own supply chain, but without access to a large market, it cannot be competitive. The US is leaving no knees untouched in its Tonya Harding competition strategy.
The Chinese are very grateful to the US for pushing them towards self-sufficiency. Thanks to the US, China now has its own GPS system and space program. More sanctions, please.
Roomful of people seriously talk about a joke.
Why and where and how the chip would or should be the most critical technology???? This is very odd. Then the moderator said ".... professor of "HISTORY....."!
The question ends by itself.
Someone doesn't realize he's living in the AI age. Wake up, little Susie, wake up.
America by declaring the Chip war, forced China to Create the whole supply chain locally. A huge challenge that the Chinese are willing to take. Last month they succeeded in making their own lithography machine capable of stitching 28nm chips. If the Chinese keep going with the speed of progress they'll reach the capability of The dutch company ASML in few years and gonna change the whole world of technology.
now is 7nm chips, huawei meta 60. 2.000.000 phones for selling
Is it me, or did he dodge the "race" vs "war" question. eventhough he mentioned chinease leaders are actually not as war hungry as Japanese in 1940.
33% of computing power is produced in Taiwan
如果中国一定无法研发同样先进的芯片技术，这个教授的结论才是正确的
用“永远不能”的人永远是傻瓜。美国有太多这种傻瓜。
I am always leery of authors who claim to be experts but have limited knowledge from the very beginning. What does a history professor knows of microchips, except superficially.
I take your point about experts. But he can read, and he has the ability to learn and apply himself to understanding the microchip sphere of knowledge. I'd say that he has obviously applied himself to that task reasonably competently.
I would love to hear about the Christian movement in China.
This Chris Miller guy has no clue but I bet he made a lot of money writing a book full of misinformation, My guess is he is not EE professor as in Electrical Engineering but some English Exclusive major.
Like an engineer would understand geopolitics---pleeease!
A person who
1. have no first hand understanding of the tech and the operation of the chip industry,
2 have no indepth research of the data of the market and industry concerned,
3 no research and understanding of the China industry, culture, characters, capabilities, capacities, history and responses in similar challenge.
Actually dare to write a book on chip war between US and China?
O M G!!!!!!!!!!
a very typical American elite characteristic right there......to deceive others and be deceived....that's how USA was established anyway.
bet ya cant eat just one
He will eats his foot after 10 years. Market and the volume of the market dictate tech and innovation. China has both, and they will make it happen.
Most difficult job mostly no one will like to do
To be charitable, Professor Miller is a newbie, so excuse his numerous errors, bad assumptions and - it follows - mistaken conclusions.
Do you know know how chips started? It was started from 4000 phd Chinese engineers at Silicon Valley sin 1970s. US sanction export chips to China. Just recently I watch a podcast about Huawei is now making the new chips. China cancelled their $90 million chips order.
There is nothing wrong with Chinese people? The problem is the evil Chinese regime that bullies it’s people and it’s neighbors. That’s why it has so few friends. That’s why Chinese can win Nobel prizes if they live in the US but not if they live in China.
Haha 😅 this hasn’t aged well at all. Hogwash from this professor of HISTORY. He should stick to history
Prof Chris Miller look so much like Bill Gates.
The intelligent smiley face.
A person's face especially the mouth can say so much about their high IQ.
This dude is too politically unhinged. My guess would be this urge to control will probably lead to loosing it all than containing it.
Orwell would not agree.
@@kreek22 like I care! Ha
@@sleepEasy2 bad to the bone
@@kreek22 small town, an artisan carpenter gets up from the bed, discovers he has a talent with wood (how? who knows) starts fining wood, and selling. Town loves the knickknacks. Soon houses are full of tiny knickknacks, kids love em, can't get enough of em, adults start selling em outside the town, bag margins. A bunch of goons come and start seeking rent from the carpenter, start threatening him, then spreading bad words about him and his business, accusing his crafts have special termites that enter the brains and start townfolks alive from within, no proof given. Town is in the grip of fear psychosis. Soon townfolks gather outside his shop with tikki torches. Carpenter leaves the town. Soon, real termites show up and starts eating all the knickknacks. People realise there is no carpenter or low skilled carpenter in the town.
In what way is he politicaly unhinged?
too young too simple.
My goodness Prof. Miller looks like 13 years old LOL
😂 I thot he’s bill gate. He kinda looks like bull gates
I have desktop computers from 2014 and they run current 2023 software on Windows 10 faster than my new 2023 laptop with Windows 11. I have an iPhone 8 from 2017 and yes it is a little slower than the iPhone 14, but the functionality is still the same. The conclusion is that hardware advances do not matter unless supported by software advances. The reality is that is high end chips are "luxury" goods that people pay a premium for but do not actually increase functionality. As with a lot of things, what we need is not the "best", but just "good enough" to solve our problem. China went their own way with their own space station. It is a risky bet that they cannot come up with their own supply chain that is enough to supply the needs.
EUV-LITHOGRAPHER is in sight in China.
no problem for china now
China is already developing better and better chips. It will be just a few years when China will be the leader in chip making, just like in other fields.
😂😂😂 He did not know that the chip technology and industry is practically build by enginners and scientists, where 90% of them are ethnic Chinese. It takes the hardwork, discipline and brain of ethnic Chinese to make it work.
Well, what will happen next needs no argument.
I hate to give academic content a thumbs-down, but there is so much misinformation and wrong conclusions in this talk tat it would be dishonest of be to not do so9 and warn viewers not to accept thus uncritically. I will suggest Professor Miller stick to Russian history because IC practitioners such as I would take his thesis apart in minutes. I find it appalling that MIT would host such an inaccurate talk, you should do better.
Then take it apart
Jesus he looks like the young Bill Gates 😁
ua-cam.com/video/xmC1GM4IzQg/v-deo.html
Chip War : The Hidden Truth
Is Taiwan ahead of even Us?
Ahead of US? The US doesn't have much production ability at all.
Who is realizing this guy looks like Bill Gates???
Moore's law is not a issue here. TSMC and Samsung succeeded due to availability of Western technologies, optimal utilization of capital and disciplined procedural operation skills.
Japan lost semiconductor dominance due to unoptimal utilization of capital. US lost foundry capability due to poor capital investment and poor operation discipline.
Biggest concern for semiconductor foundry is yield rate and US couldn't keep up with Japanese yield rate due to undesciplined female operators in clean room with simple things like completely covering their hair and male operators from not burping after having spicy food for lunch.
Why did Intel fail to advance their foundry capability beyond 7nm wafers? I doubt government subsidy would help Intel, but Micron has been more successful against Asian competitor. Although US government did have to help Micron few times by claiming Asian competitor violated US dumping regulations by acceting their government subsidies or violated alleged Micron IP.
The success of CHIPs Act will depend on how well US convince TSMC and Samsung to build and share their technologies here in US without their intellectual property will not be devulged with US foundries.
Since CHIPs Act already has clauses to share processes and refund windfall profits, true cooperation with TSMC and Samsung will not be easy. Samsung has lost lawsuits with Apple only in US, but not in any other countries. Even when Samsung when a lawsuit when Apple copied Samsung technology, Obama pardoned Apple. Many Asian chip manufacturers have similar experiences. Having Asian advisors on US negotiating team would help but currently all US negotiators seems to be all caucasian.
By the way, if US could continue to keep Western semiconductor equipment, EDA softwares, certain materials used by foundry, and availability of TSMC and Samsung engineers from Chinese recruitment then US should win against China in semiconductor war. Work with Taiwan and Korea to stop supplying China with latest APs and memory chips by providing incentives. For Taiwan, supplying them with long promised F-16 would help especially since Biden stopped sales of F-35 allowed by Trump.