China had the chance to lead Asia. They had the chance to lead it with decency and show normalcy amidst a robust economy. Instead, they harass their fellow Asians, undermine their sovereignty and used their power to be above the law and order. We never truly had a leader in Asia which we can look up to and admire and aspire to be like the US for the Americas or Germany and UK for Europe. They jail their tech heads and leading CEOs, too. China also curtail the rights of their citizens hence limiting them from becoming the next Elon Musk or Einstein. What they are doing now is just hurting themselves more and more. No, this is not their culture. Preserving your culture and traditions does not involve oppressing people's freedoms. Japan was and still is prevailing in preserving its culture and traditions while rising as one of the world's top economies. This one is communism or a significant remnant of it that they can't just forego for a better, bigger, more prosperous China. We hope one day, there will really be one that will rise on top and lead Asia - it may still be China or perhaps India or someone else.👍🏿
"aspire to be like the US for the Americas or Germany and UK for Europe" just say you put the whites on a pedestal and go. The West have been doing what you are accusing China of for centuries but here you are, being a bootlicker gold medalist.
America has invaded 13 countries illegally since 1949 and killed millions of people. How many countries has China invaded in that time? I think you are confused
A word to the camera guy: show us the slides/presentation, not people's faces. The importance is about the data and info being talked about and not audience's reaction or the speaker's face.
Considering nearly all were ethnic Chinese their facial expressions and attention etc are actually very important things to keep an eye on. Reading even resting body language tells you more than a slide can.
@@SamtheIrishexan not the info we need tho. unless you want info about how asian people feel about this... and, besides that; its quite funny you think thats 'asians' all and want the same thing. im sure south koreans for example will kinda love china loosing a bit. and they are not alone.
The issue isn't with the camera man; there's a fixed camera that captures the entire screen quite clearly. The problem lies with the person who edited this video, who seems overly fond of showing his face.
This is one of the best presentations I have ever seen on economic influence on geopolitical events. Tying the threads together lets us see what could be the future. At the same time in the US, we have some of the same circumstances developing. These events are pointing to a 3rd WW. It will be catastrophic
of course spot on, he is just spewing facts... and diverting people's attention away from the decline of USA hahaha, and keeping his job as a contrarian.
@@teckchuonting4582 I swear these people are funny😂 China is outmanufacturing the entire west combined but according to them they will collapse in 2 weeks
../ with a skewed perspective of the world? Listen more to the likes of American scholars like renowned Profs Jeffery Sachs and Richard Wolff and other scholars.
@@rcchin7897 LOl lOL LOL tell me you don't understand tarrifs while you think you do. Americans would have to pay 40 to 60 percent higher prices for the duration of tariffs and America is less than 3% of chinas gdp. The rest of the world is not going to listen to trump and knife themselves in the back by putting his dumb tarrifs in place, but we will see i am just glad it is not my country doing this right now.
@@Lululemon2023 Only a nationalist would say Chinas doing great right now. Why are the Chinese so terrified of anything negative about China. That or they have to make a comparison to the US.
With all due respect, I'm a Hong Kong citizen living in Hong Kong, and I'm quite satisfied with living condition nowadays😅 We wished democracy could have helped us develop our society even more but after the riot/coup in the name of "democracy" in 2019, all we want is a balanced, developed society which honestly China is contributing instead of the encouragement from the West to demolish our society based on "liberation"
@@ricardoagila3115 day dream, go study history. Hongkong is part of China for thousands of years. How study to claim free part of nation which has 5000 years history? The era the western rape the world is long over ? Tibet is part of China since 1700, why double standard ? Why not claim free Scotland or Ireland or Texas ? Come take it if you are strong enough, if not, shut up. Taiwen is part of civil war. The leader of Taiwen used to control the whole China and flee to the island when lost the civil war. What kind of stupid idea to interfere any country’s civil war ?
@@ricardoagila3115 I do not get it, why interfere other nation’s internal affairs ? Why give you the right to police the world ? Look at western nations, are you sure your nation is the good example of civil rights? Murder is daily event, homeless every where, huge wealth gap. Come on dude. Color revolution is a new way to control other nations. Hongkong basic laws are no difference from US federal laws to suppress the rioters in U.S. it is part of effort to contain China. Why Hongkong is quiet and have peace now? Because the riot organizers are charged and sent to jail for many years. Truth is that western gave money and organize the riots inside Hongkong. China leant from US federal laws to stop that.
Facts: Besides Beijing, and Shanghai, Tibet has the third highest average salary in whole of China. What to free? Many would love to work in Tibet! Stop believing in Goblins such as this dude will do good for you.
I have to say, as a mainland Chinese, he's right about most of the current issues, compared with about 5-10 years ago, China now is relative declining. That is because china's econamy was mainly depend on international traidings , especilally with US& Europ; now with the commercial war between china& US, china cannot get elite chips, chinese cars cannot sell to US and ralated countries; and especially for the wars around the world, chinese companies can not traid as before, and most of the countries and citizens after covid-19, spend less on goods and stuff also causes a decline of outport of products. many conpanies depend on international traiding went bakrupted during the past a few years, the numbero f bankrupted companies is just shocking... and not mention about coruptions and other issues...
Both western and eastern societies are coming to the same conclusions at the same relative time in the world. We humans are are at a critical mass point of understanding about the nature of prosperity and decadance in our lives. Interesting to say the least. Perhaps we will also come to a spiritual conclusion and join together as a species to praise god and seek out his plan for us.
huh? how is China behind when it's the #1 trading partner of all its neighbors? Japan and S.Korea rely on the Chinese to survive, and China's biggest trading partner is the ASEAN, and they have a close working relationship with Russia, they also lead the BRICS nations. lmao. Cope hard. Even Elon Musk won't survive without Chinese battery technology.
Michael Beckley’s analysis highlights genuine challenges that China faces, but it may underestimate China’s capacity to adapt and evolve. The country’s strategic investments in technology, its unique economic model, regional influence, and ability to leverage its central governance structure present a counterpoint to the narrative of inevitable decline. While China may not achieve rapid growth rates indefinitely, its continued rise as a major player in a multipolar global order remains a plausible outcome, especially as it pursues a model tailored to its strengths and mitigates its weaknesses.
I highly suggest reading Michael Pettis' vlog and research papers. He's been right about China for over 15 years. Pettis is currently a finance professor at Beijing University for well over 23 years.
This is the least weird post to counter the narrative of the video. It's like this comment section is filled with Chinese nationalists. Back to your comment, I agree, I don't think anything is certain when it comes to the outcome of nations. China will surprise us all, I'm sure of that.
@@mmjpune It just shows how shallow thinking these people are. All these fake, useless and time wasting propaganda will just speed up their own downfall.
@i_love_egg_with_tomato Numbers, figures and statistics can be distorted and misused. The real truth is that China is producing and will continue to produce much more reliable, good and very affordable products for almost everyone if not everyone that the world needs. China has the world's biggest consumer market which a lot of countries wants and need to sustain and grow their own economy. Who could do that? Besides China, no one else can do that. It is what it is and nothing will change this true facts for a very long long time.
Keep this as record of Michael Beckley for reference the next few years. Acknowledged his analysis and watch the outcome. How about Michael's analysis of USA comparatively with China? We in ASEAN will continue trading with China like our forefathers the last 1000 years.
🇨🇳🇨🇳Inflation causes strife 🇨🇳🇨🇳China shall be compared with other 😮jurisdictions 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳China has almost no competitors as the US is about to fall in longterm inflation🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪
Who is this clown? Why record what a clown has to say. Only the CIA cares because believe me they were WATCHING this clown speak every word because if he didn't, he'd be locked up in GITMO.
What is his agenda? Is he mixed like Gordon Chang? Everything he says is so distorted. China's rivers so polluted. China's rise is due to help from USA. China's debt trap. Etc., etc. And why is the Chinese audience sitting there quietly?
Please remember one thing: China’s WIN-WIN means China wins twice. If a dictator allows win-win, his rival will challenge his authority by asking how can you let the enemy win.
@@mori7146 It's much much better than to go to war and chaos which lose 150% of everything and many lives. Who and which country actually wants to sacrifice themselves and lose everything every time for others? Do you think people believe that the US and the west give things for free? Go and dream again. Now it is already 2024, not 1980s and almost everyone can see who is real and who is fake.
Who gave the right to judge other nation? In 1900, the Eight-Nation Alliance, which included the United States, invaded northern China to relieve the siege of foreign legations in Beijing during the Boxer Rebellion. The Western soldiers basically raped China. You have zero moral credibility to point fingers. How about Iraq war? Kill one millions Iraqs and cost trillions of tax payer dollar, lost 4000 plus young soldiers. For what? How wars US started last 40 years ? In Korean War and Vietnam war, US basically fight against Chinese soloists and Chinese officers. US did not win either war. Both war for ideology, anti communist.
@@gyurmethlodroe1774 No wonder the US supporters always got all the outdated and wrong info. Believing in some fake propaganda and information for self satisfaction will cause bad decisions which will ultimately results in one's own downfall.
Ummm,,,, there are many many holes in his hypothesis, it is very much based in American exceptionalism thinking, you may have noticed that while speaking of China’s aggression, with a map of American bases surrounding China. Given our history of the countries we have bombed over the last 70 yrs, ide say they forgiven for feeling a little insecure. That’s just one of many. His take on demographics is valid. But I must say I bit shocked at his lack of insight to China. But, still, it’s good to hear all sides
@@texazwhyte2791 you want to hear all sides? Read these books: 1. Rise and fall of House of B0....Penguin publication 2. ln the Campss...by Darran Bylarr 3. The Private Life of Chairman Mao...by Li zishui ( personal doctor to Mao)
There is a way China can back to the track of prosperity. It is standing by the western countries doing following things. 1. Give up for Taiwan. 2. Condemn Russia for Ukraine War and join the section. 3. Pressure North Korea to stop aggression. 4. Change leadership of China. 5. Change Chinese law and regulations to honor foreigners freely do the businesses in China legally. 6. Return all the illegal siesed foreign investments previously done. 7. Stop take over foreign properties they took in the means of their loans. Well, I asked too much, I know. But no one is going to trust China otherwise.
Sure, but what would that trust do for China? Soviet union/Russia has done the similar reform, where did that lead the Russian people? The "trust" was earned but no "help" was provided.
Appreciate the comment about the US at the end of your presentation. Please do the same presentation about current day USA: National debt. Student debt. % in prison. % drug addicted. % access to medical care. Home ownership rate over time. Wealth concentration and disappearing of middle class. Political divide, nationalism, hostility. Thanks.
Don't celebrate too early. A declining China could be far more dangerous and unpredictable than an ascending one. War is still a possibility as declining nations could use aggression to hold onto power, and there's a lot that could change in the coming years. Stay vigilant. Long live Democracy and Freedom!
Very enlightening to grasp the changes taking place in the situation of China and implications to the future of China and geopolitics and other countries relying on China's growth.
do you think that India can replace China? and if India rise too much, will the USA not also do the same to punish India? will India's rise be the next USA target when their elections come? we have to think about these things
In the eighties, japans commercial successes were so great they started behaving in a very arrogant way. But the 2008 recession completely humbled them. China is acting in exactly the same way..
He's far from the only one saying these things. Just looking at the numbers, a lot of it is obvious. Demographics is hugely important. It's easy to grow when you emerge from nothing, have endless cheap labor, and take on a lot of debt, all at once. That has driven Chinese growth. No one can argue that can go on indefinitely. But predictions are predictions. Some end up being more accurate than others, and no one gets everything right. I'd bet he's off in his timescale. Overall though, a very insightful presentation that makes so much sense.
@@quicksilver0201 To some degree it does. Robots don't go home and cook and clean, and take care of parents though, or pay taxes, or do charity work, or serve in the military, or ? I decided to look up which nation leads in automation - automation density. From, International Federation of Robotics: Korea does, by far. Almost four times more than China. China is ninth on the list. The U.S. is higher than China. But that was 2020 data. China is probably above the US now.
If China is so awesome, why does the CCP impose limits on the amount of capital that can leave the country? If it was so good, why do you need to keep the money prisoner there? Wouldn't the money want to be there if it was so great in China?
because they cannot handle the truth... they are all stunned ! they think of the opposite (these Chinese Audience are still in the bubble... they cannot believe what they are hearing... ). But I cannot fault about the speaker... he simply tell you the reality of China Today.
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Wendy Hubbard Stewart.
Not if you're bet again China like the European Unions did in 2024. The German lost bet with loosing VW Auto Company & BASF (Badische Anilin und Soda Fabrik) a German chemical company to the Chinese... Many more European and American company will join them in China in 2025. Reason: Cheap Energy.
I think India has the potential to lead Asia which obviously China wouldn't allow but they also need Indian Markets to sell their products which is why I see China and India leading Asia in the near future
LOL I've made bucketloads of cash betting Against China. LOL It's a winning strategy...and Trump isn't even in office yet! Buckle up, Buckaroo. You're going to learn the hard way that China needs the world WAY more than the world needs China.
@@Jerry-ii2yp Jerry, this is exactly the betting and wishful thinking on America side. Instead to fix own issue to catch up, spread fake news about your competitor. Be objective to your competitor. Trashing your competitors will not help you. Maybe just maybe make you feel good for a moment. Truth hurt, do not seeking this temporary pain relieve by lie about your competitor.
I'm from India, and India must learn many things from China. The median age of the Indian is 29 years, that's a little advantage, China is a greying economy. India has got only 20 years in hand . Hope by 2047 India will be another China.
1. After China is India -> still Asian century 2. Measure Chinese energy from space? How do you measure their underground infrastructure? Their bullet trains, subways and endless military structures. 3. China is restructuring their export led economy to consumer led. Very similar to the US after ww ii
How little this twin brother of Gordon Chang know of the said subject: Asian Century. It was not China PRC who said it, but member of the ASEAN whom are the center of the Asian Century movement. They, ASEAN member since 1960's started by USA, has move Asia to the forefront for other Asian Nation States. China PRC is nothing more then being largest Nation State in population, now India, after coming out of civil war in 1949.
china bot with identical comment to other china bot comments. pathetic, no originality which is why you all have to steal from the us. no ideas of your own. just copy others
Very informative and solid data. Also, very well presented 😃 I hired a great electronic manufacturing concern in South China near Dong Guan, a Nasdaq traded company. I started seeing many of the things mentioned. Thank you❤
What kind of forum is this? I just saw someone wishing for an entire country to sink like a ship, taking all its people down with it. As a Chinese-American, I deeply love the United States, the country I swore allegiance to, and I genuinely wish it the best. At the same time, I also wish the best for my mother country, China. In fact, I hope for prosperity for our entire planet and for all people living on it. How is it that a forum like this isn’t focused on lifting ourselves while also helping others rise-especially those who may be going through difficult times? Instead, are we here to watch a great nation falter and then celebrate its downfall? How cruel and misguided is that?
Your China is buying lands left & right on Philippine soils using sinister tactics to gain fictitious citizenship, then promoting large-scale gentrification.
Chinese bot army is out in real force in the comment section. Must have struck a nerve to be so salty. Kind of telling regarding the truth of the video.
>Keep this in mind: last year the population of China actually decreased by over sixty million people. The people who built the China we see today will be leaving the planet soon. The young do not want to work as did their parents who are now in their seventies. The young men and women in China cannot afford to start a family. More to the point, the young men outnumber the young women by two-to-one. This last point is the result of the one-child policy which the CCP tried to change recently but which failed. >All this drives current trade policies. It seems to me that the CCP will be trying to compensate the decline in population with subsidized manufacturing for export; essentially, the CCP will be trying to export its debt The West has enough debt, too much really. All this debt devalues the dollar, and so, it takes more of these devalued dollars to buy anything. This produces what we identify as inflation, but which is really the devaluation of the dollar.
@@dracorpgroup this is your wishful thinking. You are dead wrong. I suggest to google China trade surplus in 2024. I suggest to research about the size of Russia economic size and how much economic gain to China from Ukraine war. I suggest you google China GDP from 1985 to 2024. I strongly suggest you pay a visit to China. Clearly you bet on China fail and I bet China stay rising. I suggest you google China technology development, clearly China government attempt to regulate the economy model from housing to technology. I suggest you study China EV development, specially BYD and bullet train. It is very important to leave your emotion out when you attempt analysis of a nation, otherwise your emotion will make fool of yourself. Enough lecture. Now do your own home work. Again China will not fail just because some haters wish so.
Hasn’t the same thing you describe about China happened in the US already? Except China has at least modernized themselves. The US has not. Look at our roads, infrastructure, and manufacturing base.
We believe Professor Columbia University Jeffrey Sachs, he is the most wise and honest man. I listen to his recent talk at Cambridge Union , he tolds all the facts and Truth.
Chinese are very happy that the West will keep thinking about China as they used to have for the last few decades. Leave China and Chinese people alone, China is always a developing country. The countries in the West are so developed.
China's favorability rating is only low among Western countries, notably those aligned with the United States. It's actually much higher among the Global South nations. Let's keep in mind that the USA and its allies represent less than 15% of humanity, while the Global South represents more than 85% of humanity. The reasons for the Global South's favorability for China are: 1. The Belt and Road Initiative in which over 150 countries participate-that's three-quarters of the world's nations! These countries are extremely grateful for China's assistance. 2. China is the largest trading partner to over 120 countries who benefit enormously from Chinese trade. 3. China has fought no wars in the last 45 years, while the USA and its allies have fought many. This proves that China is a peaceful nation. 4. China brokered the historic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It has been pushing hard for peace in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, while the USA has been prolonging these conflicts. 5. China is leading BRICS and SCO to unify the world in peace and common prosperity. Over 40 countries have lined up to join!
GDP estimates for 2024 China 4.8%, USA 2.8% based on those estimates China is hardly in decline, By 2030 China will the world's largest economy. This presentation sounds more like propaganda to me.
It does not hurt to listen to both sides of arguments and entertain the other side of opinions regardless how nonsense it may turn out to be, if we trust the truth eventually prevails.
😏A breaking news I been hearing since 2007⁉️ Novices and Funny wishful thinkers best describes western economists academicians‼️ Lots of craps and jingoism loaded hopes could make a better topic.
@ I like that one. Though,,,, we appear to have a problem with the truth being allowed to circulate. The delay is holding humanity back. But,,?im with ya
Demographics is destiny. The shrinking working age population coupled with rapidly growing aging unproductive population has no other possible result than China is entering decline that cannot be reversed by rhetoric and nationalistic posturing.
50years ago：china is over 30years ago：china is over 10years ago：china is over 5years ago：china is over last year：china is over this time：china MUST over okay，i should belive u right？bro is trying so hard lol😅😅🤡
I highly suggest reading Michael Pettis' vlog and research papers. He's been right about China for over 15 years. Pettis is currently a finance professor at Beijing University for well over 23 years.
Nah. China is already over, it peaked essentially by 2012-2015. I think you might need to listen to his talk a few times and gather facts from actual sources like he did and everyone else who knows the actual truth of the matter. Within 30 years in China people will be obsessing over how to grow as many potatoes as possible since it will literally be the only thing on your mind to stave off starvation.
US goes through boom bust cycles. As a market economy, China is also following natural market cycles. Its growth is not actually 'dead'. No one calls the US 'dead' during its recessions.
China had the chance to lead Asia. They had the chance to lead it with decency and show normalcy amidst a robust economy. Instead, they harass their fellow Asians, undermine their sovereignty and used their power to be above the law and order. We never truly had a leader in Asia which we can look up to and admire and aspire to be like the US for the Americas or Germany and UK for Europe. They jail their tech heads and leading CEOs, too. China also curtail the rights of their citizens hence limiting them from becoming the next Elon Musk or Einstein. What they are doing now is just hurting themselves more and more. No, this is not their culture. Preserving your culture and traditions does not involve oppressing people's freedoms. Japan was and still is prevailing in preserving its culture and traditions while rising as one of the world's top economies. This one is communism or a significant remnant of it that they can't just forego for a better, bigger, more prosperous China. We hope one day, there will really be one that will rise on top and lead Asia - it may still be China or perhaps India or someone else.👍🏿
"aspire to be like the US for the Americas or Germany and UK for Europe" just say you put the whites on a pedestal and go. The West have been doing what you are accusing China of for centuries but here you are, being a bootlicker gold medalist.
Yes. Preach it bro
🥕❗😊…∴…∴i6∴yrrl！😮😮…∴∵人1 8:48 😊:、😅😊😊、、↖😮、、戚😮
∴ 10:46 10:46 10:46 “😅∵😅:😅😅😅😅😅 11:47 11:47 冫
America has invaded 13 countries illegally since 1949 and killed millions of people. How many countries has China invaded in that time? I think you are confused
A word to the camera guy: show us the slides/presentation, not people's faces. The importance is about the data and info being talked about and not audience's reaction or the speaker's face.
Considering nearly all were ethnic Chinese their facial expressions and attention etc are actually very important things to keep an eye on. Reading even resting body language tells you more than a slide can.
No their disapproval was my favourite part (although FYI a fair few of them are Korean who are not disapproving)
@@SamtheIrishexan not the info we need tho. unless you want info about how asian people feel about this... and, besides that; its quite funny you think thats 'asians' all and want the same thing. im sure south koreans for example will kinda love china loosing a bit. and they are not alone.
The issue isn't with the camera man; there's a fixed camera that captures the entire screen quite clearly. The problem lies with the person who edited this video, who seems overly fond of showing his face.
@@SamtheIrishexan No, those are korean people. lol
This is one of the best presentations I have ever seen on economic influence on geopolitical events. Tying the threads together lets us see what could be the future. At the same time in the US, we have some of the same circumstances developing. These events are pointing to a 3rd WW. It will be catastrophic
From what I've seen over the past year or so this is spot on. I've been watching China for years and it's spining out of control.
of course spot on, he is just spewing facts... and diverting people's attention away from the decline of USA hahaha, and keeping his job as a contrarian.
😂😂😂
中国已经崩溃二三十年了，不要浪费你的时间
@@teckchuonting4582 I swear these people are funny😂 China is outmanufacturing the entire west combined but according to them they will collapse in 2 weeks
This is a right wing think tank. They have been predicting the fall of China/CCP for 70 years and it STILL hasn't happened 🤣
👍👍👍 Absolutely correct analyse !
The US needs more talented people like you.
The USA needs Trump, not this biased man... hahaha and indeed they voted for Trump
../ with a skewed perspective of the world? Listen more to the likes of American scholars like renowned Profs Jeffery Sachs and Richard Wolff and other scholars.
Boycott anything made in China
Tariffs! Have China subsidze the USA economy, instead of the other way around!
You go ahead. I need affordable products.
Boycott overcapacity American junks from Apple and Tesla
Why ?
@@rcchin7897 LOl lOL LOL tell me you don't understand tarrifs while you think you do. Americans would have to pay 40 to 60 percent higher prices for the duration of tariffs and America is less than 3% of chinas gdp. The rest of the world is not going to listen to trump and knife themselves in the back by putting his dumb tarrifs in place, but we will see i am just glad it is not my country doing this right now.
One of the most objective analysis on China, and likely the best in this year.
Thanks a lot for the talk!
UA-cam "Inside China Business" and then see if China is at the end of its rise or is the US empire in decline lol
Only a misinformed and biased mind would come your conclusion
@@Lululemon2023 Only a nationalist would say Chinas doing great right now. Why are the Chinese so terrified of anything negative about China. That or they have to make a comparison to the US.
Bullshit
@@Lululemon2023
Yes Wumao... these scripts is not on your Wolf Warrior manuals given by Winnie the Poohp 💩!
Free the Himalayas! Free South China Sea! Free East China Sea! Free Hong Kong! Free Taiwan! Free Tibet! Free the Chinese people!
With all due respect, I'm a Hong Kong citizen living in Hong Kong, and I'm quite satisfied with living condition nowadays😅 We wished democracy could have helped us develop our society even more but after the riot/coup in the name of "democracy" in 2019, all we want is a balanced, developed society which honestly China is contributing instead of the encouragement from the West to demolish our society based on "liberation"
@@ricardoagila3115 day dream, go study history. Hongkong is part of China for thousands of years. How study to claim free part of nation which has 5000 years history? The era the western rape the world is long over ? Tibet is part of China since 1700, why double standard ? Why not claim free Scotland or Ireland or Texas ?
Come take it if you are strong enough, if not, shut up. Taiwen is part of civil war. The leader of Taiwen used to control the whole China and flee to the island when lost the civil war. What kind of stupid idea to interfere any country’s civil war ?
@@ricardoagila3115 I do not get it, why interfere other nation’s internal affairs ? Why give you the right to police the world ? Look at western nations, are you sure your nation is the good example of civil rights? Murder is daily event, homeless every where, huge wealth gap. Come on dude.
Color revolution is a new way to control other nations. Hongkong basic laws are no difference from US federal laws to suppress the rioters in U.S. it is part of effort to contain China.
Why Hongkong is quiet and have peace now? Because the riot organizers are charged and sent to jail for many years. Truth is that western gave money and organize the riots inside Hongkong. China leant from US federal laws to stop that.
Facts: Besides Beijing, and Shanghai, Tibet has the third highest average salary in whole of China. What to free? Many would love to work in Tibet! Stop believing in Goblins such as this dude will do good for you.
@ricardoagila3115
All those countries you mentioned were free, except your country was not free.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I have to say, as a mainland Chinese, he's right about most of the current issues, compared with about 5-10 years ago, China now is relative declining. That is because china's econamy was mainly depend on international traidings , especilally with US& Europ; now with the commercial war between china& US, china cannot get elite chips, chinese cars cannot sell to US and ralated countries; and especially for the wars around the world, chinese companies can not traid as before, and most of the countries and citizens after covid-19, spend less on goods and stuff also causes a decline of outport of products. many conpanies depend on international traiding went bakrupted during the past a few years, the numbero f bankrupted companies is just shocking... and not mention about coruptions and other issues...
Both western and eastern societies are coming to the same conclusions at the same relative time in the world. We humans are are at a critical mass point of understanding about the nature of prosperity and decadance in our lives. Interesting to say the least. Perhaps we will also come to a spiritual conclusion and join together as a species to praise god and seek out his plan for us.
Loving the pain in the junior ccp comments here. Your precious CCP is exactly why China so far behind your neighbors and now will never catch up.
huh? how is China behind when it's the #1 trading partner of all its neighbors? Japan and S.Korea rely on the Chinese to survive, and China's biggest trading partner is the ASEAN, and they have a close working relationship with Russia, they also lead the BRICS nations. lmao. Cope hard. Even Elon Musk won't survive without Chinese battery technology.
what 😂 which neighbor are you talking about?
Michael Beckley’s analysis highlights genuine challenges that China faces, but it may underestimate China’s capacity to adapt and evolve. The country’s strategic investments in technology, its unique economic model, regional influence, and ability to leverage its central governance structure present a counterpoint to the narrative of inevitable decline. While China may not achieve rapid growth rates indefinitely, its continued rise as a major player in a multipolar global order remains a plausible outcome, especially as it pursues a model tailored to its strengths and mitigates its weaknesses.
I highly suggest reading Michael Pettis' vlog and research papers. He's been right about China for over 15 years. Pettis is currently a finance professor at Beijing University for well over 23 years.
This is the least weird post to counter the narrative of the video. It's like this comment section is filled with Chinese nationalists. Back to your comment, I agree, I don't think anything is certain when it comes to the outcome of nations. China will surprise us all, I'm sure of that.
@@kennethli8 funny how u only provided Michael Pettis. No one cares about him
@@Zt3v3"everyone that disagrees is a chinese bot" excuse .
@@kennethli8 u lost the moment you mentioned Pettis. What's next Gordon chang
A very insightful study about China.
Ouch! Looks like he touched a raw nerve of the China supporters...😂😂
@@mmjpune It just shows how shallow thinking these people are. All these fake, useless and time wasting propaganda will just speed up their own downfall.
He didn't touch anything of me. I am fine if he uses numbers, facts, truth and so on to convince me on something, not throwing out crap with no clues.
@i_love_egg_with_tomato Numbers, figures and statistics can be distorted and misused. The real truth is that China is producing and will continue to produce much more reliable, good and very affordable products for almost everyone if not everyone that the world needs. China has the world's biggest consumer market which a lot of countries wants and need to sustain and grow their own economy.
Who could do that? Besides China, no one else can do that.
It is what it is and nothing will change this true facts for a very long long time.
Another CIA agent
He did not touched on anything. Goblins always have bad and unrealistic intention, I get use to it.
Awesome presentation. Congrats to the Professor Beckley!
Keep this as record of Michael Beckley for reference the next few years. Acknowledged his analysis and watch the outcome.
How about Michael's analysis of USA comparatively with China?
We in ASEAN will continue trading with China like our forefathers the last 1000 years.
🇨🇳🇨🇳Inflation causes strife 🇨🇳🇨🇳China shall be compared with other 😮jurisdictions 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳China has almost no competitors as the US is about to fall in longterm inflation🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪
Who is this clown? Why record what a clown has to say. Only the CIA cares because believe me they were WATCHING this clown speak every word because if he didn't, he'd be locked up in GITMO.
We will see and time will tell the truth.
LOL and wheres that got you? The US has certainly peaked but it took a few hundred years. China in such a rush peaked in 20
What is his agenda? Is he mixed like Gordon Chang? Everything he says is so distorted. China's rivers so polluted. China's rise is due to help from USA. China's debt trap. Etc., etc. And why is the Chinese audience sitting there quietly?
Please remember one thing:
China’s WIN-WIN means China wins twice.
If a dictator allows win-win, his rival will challenge his authority by asking how can you let the enemy win.
@@mori7146 It's much much better than to go to war and chaos which lose 150% of everything and many lives.
Who and which country actually wants to sacrifice themselves and lose everything every time for others? Do you think people believe that the US and the west give things for free? Go and dream again. Now it is already 2024, not 1980s and almost everyone can see who is real and who is fake.
@@mori7146 talk is cheap. If you strong enough, come to get it, or shut up.
Western win win has been soooo beneficial to the world for the past 400 years imaright😂
So? The US win means EVERYONE loses BIG BIG TIME. 😂😂
Who gave the right to judge other nation? In 1900, the Eight-Nation Alliance, which included the United States, invaded northern China to relieve the siege of foreign legations in Beijing during the Boxer Rebellion. The Western soldiers basically raped China. You have zero moral credibility to point fingers. How about Iraq war? Kill one millions Iraqs and cost trillions of tax payer dollar, lost 4000 plus young soldiers. For what? How wars US started last 40 years ?
In Korean War and Vietnam war, US basically fight against Chinese soloists and Chinese officers. US did not win either war. Both war for ideology, anti communist.
Wow ...such a honest, fair and free analysis
@@gyurmethlodroe1774 No wonder the US supporters always got all the outdated and wrong info. Believing in some fake propaganda and information for self satisfaction will cause bad decisions which will ultimately results in one's own downfall.
Ummm,,,, there are many many holes in his hypothesis, it is very much based in American exceptionalism thinking, you may have noticed that while speaking of China’s aggression, with a map of American bases surrounding China. Given our history of the countries we have bombed over the last 70 yrs, ide say they forgiven for feeling a little insecure. That’s just one of many. His take on demographics is valid. But I must say I bit shocked at his lack of insight to China. But, still, it’s good to hear all sides
@texazwhyte2791 It's just full of hot air western ideology and thinking. They don't actually understand anything real and true about China.
China's productivity has been decreasing for a decade?!?!?! WTF haahhaha you believe that????
@@texazwhyte2791 you want to hear all sides? Read these books:
1. Rise and fall of House of B0....Penguin publication
2. ln the Campss...by Darran Bylarr
3. The Private Life of Chairman Mao...by Li zishui ( personal doctor to Mao)
China has been inventive and resourceful for thousands of years, I am sure they can deal with changing circumstances.
Outstanding lecture. Thank you!
There is a way China can back to the track of prosperity. It is standing by the western countries doing following things. 1. Give up for Taiwan. 2. Condemn Russia for Ukraine War and join the section. 3. Pressure North Korea to stop aggression. 4. Change leadership of China. 5. Change Chinese law and regulations to honor foreigners freely do the businesses in China legally. 6. Return all the illegal siesed foreign investments previously done. 7. Stop take over foreign properties they took in the means of their loans. Well, I asked too much, I know. But no one is going to trust China otherwise.
No, there is not.
China is untrustworthy
Sure, but what would that trust do for China? Soviet union/Russia has done the similar reform, where did that lead the Russian people? The "trust" was earned but no "help" was provided.
Well, trust is not what they can get it back once they lost it. But some entrepreneurs may starting to invest.
You are basically asking China to kneel down to the west. What are you smoking?! 😅
Appreciate the comment about the US at the end of your presentation. Please do the same presentation about current day USA:
National debt. Student debt. % in prison. % drug addicted. % access to medical care. Home ownership rate over time. Wealth concentration and disappearing of middle class. Political divide, nationalism, hostility.
Thanks.
America is easily the best positioned country in the world for the next decade.
China is more indebted than the US, this is included in the presentation.
That maybe true. But the Chinese government has much more power and tools to deal with debts.
@@JR-vc4gm Nobody cares about China anymore. They had a moment in the 2010s but it's over now
The West - "been there, done that, learned from it."
Don't celebrate too early. A declining China could be far more dangerous and unpredictable than an ascending one. War is still a possibility as declining nations could use aggression to hold onto power, and there's a lot that could change in the coming years. Stay vigilant. Long live Democracy and Freedom!
Yes, that is what he is saying as well.
Peter Zeihan has been saying this exact message for a while now.
He has, but he's also more cataclysmic about China's prospects.
please dont film the audience again, its boring and distracting
Truth is always painful!
Very enlightening to grasp the changes taking place in the situation of China and implications to the future of China and geopolitics and other countries relying on China's growth.
do you think that India can replace China? and if India rise too much, will the USA not also do the same to punish India? will India's rise be the next USA target when their elections come? we have to think about these things
Beckley is brilliant. I bought his two books while listening. Thank you for your excellent work.
Keep talking Mike.. tell the whole world about this please. We need more people like you!
When the Anglo-Saxon descendants praise Asian, African or South American nations, we know that the end of the world is near.
In the eighties, japans commercial successes were so great they started behaving in a very arrogant way. But the 2008 recession completely humbled them.
China is acting in exactly the same way..
Arrogant way = usa didn't like them
He's far from the only one saying these things. Just looking at the numbers, a lot of it is obvious. Demographics is hugely important. It's easy to grow when you emerge from nothing, have endless cheap labor, and take on a lot of debt, all at once. That has driven Chinese growth. No one can argue that can go on indefinitely. But predictions are predictions. Some end up being more accurate than others, and no one gets everything right. I'd bet he's off in his timescale. Overall though, a very insightful presentation that makes so much sense.
Demographics do affect growth. So does automation, and China is the source of most industrial automation, not the US. Automation offsets demographics.
@@quicksilver0201 To some degree it does. Robots don't go home and cook and clean, and take care of parents though, or pay taxes, or do charity work, or serve in the military, or ?
I decided to look up which nation leads in automation - automation density. From, International Federation of Robotics: Korea does, by far. Almost four times more than China. China is ninth on the list. The U.S. is higher than China. But that was 2020 data. China is probably above the US now.
If China is so awesome, why does the CCP impose limits on the amount of capital that can leave the country? If it was so good, why do you need to keep the money prisoner there? Wouldn't the money want to be there if it was so great in China?
One of the daring speaker ever ...
Who is this guy ....must appreciate his solid Analysis 👍👍
Is is obviously not a very convinced audience
because they cannot handle the truth... they are all stunned ! they think of the opposite (these Chinese Audience are still in the bubble... they cannot believe what they are hearing... ). But I cannot fault about the speaker... he simply tell you the reality of China Today.
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Wendy Hubbard Stewart.
she's mostly on Instagrams, using the user name
@Fxwendy12 ..that's it .
Please tell her that I reffed you 👍
She’ll guide you💯
I suppose it doesn't matter what is being said. Only time will tell who predicted it right.
Not if you're bet again China like the European Unions did in 2024. The German lost bet with loosing VW Auto Company & BASF (Badische Anilin und Soda Fabrik) a German chemical company to the Chinese...
Many more European and American company will join them in China in 2025. Reason: Cheap Energy.
He is blind and wrong from the start
Making a living off lies and misinformation is a career path for some people in this information age.
I think India has the potential to lead Asia which obviously China wouldn't allow but they also need Indian Markets to sell their products which is why I see China and India leading Asia in the near future
Excellent presentation
Really fine analysis.
Thank you.
I need affordable products and I cannot afford American goods. Why stop a country that makes things affordable to many common people.
We can buy goods from other Asian countries, Mexico, and South American countries.
Canada is even better 😢
@znrctrnn I'm from the Philippines and China is selling us affordable goods. Most of us is buying cheap Chinese products.
@@znrctrnn are any of them as good as China at manufacturing…I doubt …they r all wannabes
Nowadays betting anything against China is a bold move😂 I admire the courage of this man.
LOL I've made bucketloads of cash betting Against China. LOL It's a winning strategy...and Trump isn't even in office yet! Buckle up, Buckaroo. You're going to learn the hard way that China needs the world WAY more than the world needs China.
how are your chinese stocks doing?? 🤣🤣
@@junkscience6397always the same bot . Still jealous of China
@@fs5775 u tell me . On your chinese phone
@@Jerry-ii2yp Jerry, this is exactly the betting and wishful thinking on America side. Instead to fix own issue to catch up, spread fake news about your competitor. Be objective to your competitor. Trashing your competitors will not help you. Maybe just maybe make you feel good for a moment. Truth hurt, do not seeking this temporary pain relieve by lie about your competitor.
Are they Taiwanese?
DPP supporters
He is Taiwanese American
21:06 the look on her face was so spot on: "i can't believe i'm here to listen to this utter BS" 😂
Could be another NED funded speech
@@Utube1024 🤣
Fantastic lecture!
May humanity thrive with acience art etc... peace love❤
World need more good samaritans spirits...
Be happy for our fellow friebds happiness
They tried hard to look like many Chinese attend this but actually the hall is quite empty. Serious, where is the food?
They are Korean. This was in Incheon.
@@raymondwu9483 Ahhh .... a receptive environment for such indoctrination.
@@tweedy4sg they got what they want from papa Sam
the chinese grab hags hoarded it along with all the TP lol
It's at dinner following the presentations. Guess you didn't listen till the end. 😂
Sad. These guys choose to sleep while China is waking up
gutter oil
Excelent ECONOMIST ! BRAVOO Michael
So right on the money. Why others can’t see these facts and misrepresent China as a continually rising power is a mystery.
Very good! Congratulations.
Excellent speech. So many practical points 👍
I'm from India, and India must learn many things from China. The median age of the Indian is 29 years, that's a little advantage, China is a greying economy. India has got only 20 years in hand . Hope by 2047 India will be another China.
He should writes a book to compete with Gordan Chang
Americans addicted to entertainment like Hollywood
gosh your comment is so original you little pink
Brilliant and insightful talk
😂😂😂When China comes they trade
When white man comes . They lecture
Excellent, fact based talk - thanks.
1. After China is India -> still Asian century
2. Measure Chinese energy from space? How do you measure their underground infrastructure? Their bullet trains, subways and endless military structures.
3. China is restructuring their export led economy to consumer led. Very similar to the US after ww ii
😂😂😂😂
the end of china
so after over 5000 years of chinese existence it will come to an end ,, so where will it go??
total propaganda hubris,,
EXACTL
Y
Chna has risen and fallen many times in its history... like all any superpowers in history... you should study world history first.
are these 'experts' not saying this for 40 years?
They are empty tins. They have nothing else to say so they create fake propaganda and perceptions. 😂😂😂
What else can they do?
they have not been.
@@martinliew578 yes they have
Gordon Chang: Bravo!!
bot, too dumb to come up with an original comment
A very insightful lecture, really an excellent piece indeed.
High quality presentation !❤
Too many 'expert ' say bad about China, but non of their expectations come true.
Why do you fret ? The man is just telling the truth.i know who doesn’t like that.😂
How little this twin brother of Gordon Chang know of the said subject: Asian Century.
It was not China PRC who said it, but member of the ASEAN whom are the center of the Asian Century movement.
They, ASEAN member since 1960's started by USA, has move Asia to the forefront for other Asian Nation States.
China PRC is nothing more then being largest Nation State in population, now India, after coming out of civil war in 1949.
I remember reading Gordon Chang's book about the coming collapse of China! Look at the reality now !
Another harbinger to the rise of China like Chang did a decade ago
Very enlightening talk. Thanks to sponsor.
Thanks AEI,
Informative 👍👍
Great Anti -China platform. Very great reading fiction and great speakers.
You must said that USA more homeless and jobless not China
That's because it's communism and they are forced to work manual labor for peanuts
@@justanghozzst8218soooo usa is communist ?😂😂😂
Another GORDON CHANG😂😂😂
The Birds on the trees are all laughing 😂😂😂
china bot with identical comment to other china bot comments. pathetic, no originality which is why you all have to steal from the us. no ideas of your own. just copy others
Very informative and solid data. Also, very well presented 😃
I hired a great electronic manufacturing concern in South China near Dong Guan, a Nasdaq traded company. I started seeing many of the things mentioned.
Thank you❤
There was no data
Very good speech.
What kind of forum is this? I just saw someone wishing for an entire country to sink like a ship, taking all its people down with it. As a Chinese-American, I deeply love the United States, the country I swore allegiance to, and I genuinely wish it the best. At the same time, I also wish the best for my mother country, China.
In fact, I hope for prosperity for our entire planet and for all people living on it. How is it that a forum like this isn’t focused on lifting ourselves while also helping others rise-especially those who may be going through difficult times? Instead, are we here to watch a great nation falter and then celebrate its downfall? How cruel and misguided is that?
Is called fake news
Tell your China to stop grabbing islands belonging to its neighbors.
Your China is buying lands left & right on Philippine soils using sinister tactics to gain fictitious citizenship, then promoting large-scale gentrification.
Why are you deleting my comments that are against your view?
Where did he "wish" for China's decline?
Chinese bot army is out in real force in the comment section. Must have struck a nerve to be so salty. Kind of telling regarding the truth of the video.
It's the title 😂
I bet they didn't even bother to listen to Mr. Beckley's presentation.
Open your mind
>Keep this in mind: last year the population of China actually decreased by over sixty million people.
The people who built the China we see today will be leaving the planet soon. The young do not want to work as did their parents who are now in their seventies. The young men and women in China cannot afford to start a family. More to the point, the young men outnumber the young women by two-to-one. This last point is the result of the one-child policy which the CCP tried to change recently but which failed.
>All this drives current trade policies. It seems to me that the CCP will be trying to compensate the decline in population with subsidized manufacturing for export; essentially, the CCP will be trying to export its debt The West has enough debt, too much really. All this debt devalues the dollar, and so, it takes more of these devalued dollars to buy anything. This produces what we identify as inflation, but which is really the devaluation of the dollar.
excellent observation!
The USD$ is still increasing. China already heavily subsidises many industries, EV's are one of the big ones with large subsidies.
WOW, so many CCP bots on this video.
Plus nearly 80% of the People's Liberation Army are One Child Policy men....this is totally catastrophic for China.
@@dracorpgroup this is your wishful thinking. You are dead wrong. I suggest to google China trade surplus in 2024. I suggest to research about the size of Russia economic size and how much economic gain to China from Ukraine war. I suggest you google China GDP from 1985 to 2024. I strongly suggest you pay a visit to China.
Clearly you bet on China fail and I bet China stay rising.
I suggest you google China technology development, clearly China government attempt to regulate the economy model from housing to technology. I suggest you study China EV development, specially BYD and bullet train.
It is very important to leave your emotion out when you attempt analysis of a nation, otherwise your emotion will make fool of yourself.
Enough lecture. Now do your own home work.
Again China will not fail just because some haters wish so.
Hasn’t the same thing you describe about China happened in the US already? Except China has at least modernized themselves. The US has not. Look at our roads, infrastructure, and manufacturing base.
If you aren't worried about China's rise, you wouldn't pay attention to it one bit.
😂😂😂
Another CIA sponsored ad.
little pink
@@fs5775 CIA agent
cry 50 cent
@@globanxietyCry CIA agent
@@slchoong007 both of us crying bruh 😂
Joker is talking to himself. Challenge him to come back and repeat what he said in 5 years from now.
Will see how this comment will age
This guy sounds like American representative 😂
Make sure Xinnie The Pooh gives you a Social Credit for your contribution. Otherwise, you've got literally nothing to add. LOL
if its proganda, i call it a very good propaganda
@@bluesky3201 made up
@@junkscience6397 why are u describing trump😂
We believe Professor Columbia University Jeffrey Sachs, he is the most wise and honest man. I listen to his recent talk at Cambridge Union , he tolds all the facts and Truth.
Chinese are very happy that the West will keep thinking about China as they used to have for the last few decades. Leave China and Chinese people alone, China is always a developing country. The countries in the West are so developed.
This guy only dares to present to high school students..... too much bs
China's favorability rating is only low among Western countries, notably those aligned with the United States. It's actually much higher among the Global South nations.
Let's keep in mind that the USA and its allies represent less than 15% of humanity, while the Global South represents more than 85% of humanity.
The reasons for the Global South's favorability for China are:
1. The Belt and Road Initiative in which over 150 countries participate-that's three-quarters of the world's nations! These countries are extremely grateful for China's assistance.
2. China is the largest trading partner to over 120 countries who benefit enormously from Chinese trade.
3. China has fought no wars in the last 45 years, while the USA and its allies have fought many. This proves that China is a peaceful nation.
4. China brokered the historic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It has been pushing hard for peace in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, while the USA has been prolonging these conflicts.
5. China is leading BRICS and SCO to unify the world in peace and common prosperity. Over 40 countries have lined up to join!
Thanks for this presentation. I learned a good deal.
This should be comforting for believers. The way people place their faith in "nothingness."
Whether or not you agree with this, the most important thing imo is that China did not rise by invading others or starting wars.
May be true, but not relevant to this topic
GDP estimates for 2024 China 4.8%, USA 2.8% based on those estimates China is hardly in decline, By 2030 China will the world's largest economy. This presentation sounds more like propaganda to me.
China can grow 25% if the CCP sets the growth target of 25.5% per year.
Good stand up comedy. I laughed throughout.
Only the time will tell the truth
It does not hurt to listen to both sides of arguments and entertain the other side of opinions regardless how nonsense it may turn out to be, if we trust the truth eventually prevails.
If we look at the group photo of APEC at Peru and where Biden stood. A picture is worth more than a thousand words.
😏A breaking news I been hearing since 2007⁉️ Novices and Funny wishful thinkers best describes western economists academicians‼️ Lots of craps and jingoism loaded hopes could make a better topic.
The brics are making America great again 😂
😂. Well said
how is de-dollarisation going to make america great.😅
@pragasanarchary2980 Time will tell, it always does...
@pragasanarchary2980 Coma capim, e observe o dólar 💵💲 a subir 🪜☺️
@ I like that one. Though,,,, we appear to have a problem with the truth being allowed to circulate. The delay is holding humanity back. But,,?im with ya
Yes, dream on
Demographics is destiny.
The shrinking working age population coupled with rapidly growing aging unproductive population has no other possible result than China is entering decline that cannot be reversed by rhetoric and nationalistic posturing.
50years ago：china is over
30years ago：china is over
10years ago：china is over
5years ago：china is over
last year：china is over
this time：china MUST over
okay，i should belive u right？bro is trying so hard lol😅😅🤡
CCP is BROKE! little Pink... 😂 😂
@ lol，u seemed like 🤡🐶👍haha low iq，，，
I highly suggest reading Michael Pettis' vlog and research papers. He's been right about China for over 15 years. Pettis is currently a finance professor at Beijing University for well over 23 years.
@ sure，thx :)
China has barely waken up😂
he better expand his heart..put away the hate and wars ..welcome the new silk Road and Win Win
Nah. China is already over, it peaked essentially by 2012-2015. I think you might need to listen to his talk a few times and gather facts from actual sources like he did and everyone else who knows the actual truth of the matter. Within 30 years in China people will be obsessing over how to grow as many potatoes as possible since it will literally be the only thing on your mind to stave off starvation.
A great presentation🎉 It tells me that the USA is deteriorating and getting feared of China😂
Exactly haha this is so sad... just trying so hard to cope
US goes through boom bust cycles. As a market economy, China is also following natural market cycles. Its growth is not actually 'dead'. No one calls the US 'dead' during its recessions.
This has strong high school conference energy.
This guy is living in a delusional world
like winnie the pooh?
He doesn't know what he is talking about
Spot on.