In what sense? Recap that the U.S. is targeting and cutting off China in the chip business to maintain its own supremacy? That the U.S. has done the same to Japan chip business in the 80s. That was Japan who surrendered. Let’s see how China survive it.
I grew up near Eindhoven. Where philips built a road when they needed a road and it was not going to be built by the municipality. Philips also built a village for the workers, it had it's own GP's, own sports centres. Maybe them investing in energy is a start to 'doing something back' for society.
Chris Miller is a russologist, specialist in cold war. Somehow jumped on the train of chip technology. I doubt he has ever programmed something useful in his life. He's obviously wrong by saying the future of AI resides in finding more data to train on and that people are finding more and more data sources. The current largest LLM practically exhausted all the data available. New developmental leaps reside in finding different architecture.
Very good lecture! After Japan and South Korea, China is next in to manufacturing chips. India has lost to China. Some design is there at the Semiconductor Laboratory at Mohali. India can still complement with stress on education and research.
Not sure 95% of ethnic indians are always living in a hallucination with this insane nationalist and obsession that they are good in science ? The thing that is most puzzling is that of their scale of obsession on the East Asian, particularly the Chinese. That explained why the indians have an inherent envy attitude towards their peer oriental peers. A word of advice ..stick to your own South Asia region chaos economy and poverty before talking about competition with others.
The development of semiconductor manufacturing today involves more than just knowledge and equipment; it also encompasses cultural environment, social resources, national values, and industry culture. This is evidenced by the different production capabilities of Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, despite having similar equipment and technological knowledge. If Taiwan were to be invaded by the Chinese government, its current state would be destroyed, and the world would lose the 90% of advanced semiconductor capacity that relies on Taiwan. This impact goes beyond Taiwan's security, posing a threat to the normal development and survival of the entire world.
Dear Chris, you forgot to mention that all the patents that makes the litographic processes in the ASML's chip-machines are American patents. So that gives USA the moral and legal rights to whom those machines may be sold.
Most of the comments are trying to discredit this professor by saying his talk is all fake. As a person with no knowledge about semiconductors and other things I don't know who to believe
This guy is a Chinese expert. But he clearly does not understand China looks at an issue with decades horizon, like the International Space Station, missiles, advanced fighter etc. Decades! China just announced the 28 nm DUV machine after 6 years. Most of chips needed are 14 nm and above!
That would insanely bloat the energy demands and is not feasible because they have not figured out how to train AI across multiple data centers like Microsoft has. It's a scaling issue from both a computational and energy perspective.
@@JJGlyph There is no doubt they will figure that out like Microsoft. For energy, PRC has the most Green Energy and is adding it at a speed greater than anyone else many times. So far, China will be mostly run on Green Energy with Beth low cost.
What’s your basis on your claim? Almost 90% of all current AI libraries, platforms and end user interfaces aka Programs aka Apps are written around CUDA, including the stuff by Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Huawei, etc. If you have no idea what CUDA is, this conversation will go nowhere. OpenCL is the only alternative to CUDA at the moment and it’s not really being used by any major AI related development, then you have things like Triton claiming hardware neutrality until you try to use it and realise alternative hardware is “in development” the. You look at it again a year later and it’s still “in development” Your statement is like a CNN or BBC “expert” report. Huawei’s Ascend series is probably using OpenCL buts it’s under testing for over 2 years now where they released an update to the hardware. Moore Threads is basically still at a 1000 series performance at about 175% TDP so basically not only slow but over-consuming. So layman idea of speed differences, a consumer 1000 series will generate 1 AI image in about 30 secs at 768x768 resolution while a consumer 3000 series will generate same image at the same power draw in 2.5 - 3s. Huawei is most definitely working on their own version of CUDA but the issue is never development but adoption, with enough iterations, you can get software parity, problem is convincing people to use it or to train enough people who know how to use it, this is not a short term effort. When you say same computation power, I’m assuming you mean using older hardware, just more of it to achieve the same computation power, again that is really a seriously uninformed statement. The cross connects, required software overhead, as others mentioned power consumption, not to mention the amount of water and HVACS needed to do this. If you don’t know why Water and HVACS are involved, again this conversation will go nowhere.
About the competition between US and China and how companies are investing billions and billions and other things but you are not telling the most important thing here, that is why is not worth watching this video. Wisdom goes always before money and power not the way around as you are telling here.
This talk is total BS. US restrictions on chips to China is not about national security and AI per se. It’s about the economy. If it was about national security and AI, then why not let Huawei have access to advanced chips for its phones? Huawei was the first target of Americans restrictions and still is. Chris miller is an apologist for American empire.
The Chinese people are very grateful to this man for giving China the opportunity to develop chips. If your competitor has made a product cheap enough and you have to invest huge capital to rebuild its production capacity, you have actually cut off any competitor's opportunities. Thanks to this gentalman, his doctrine gave China an opportunity, what a genius!
There are only 2 countries that can produce chips at 7nm and below at scale. South Korea's Samsung and China 's SMIC and TSMC. I'm 20 mins in and he's still talking about AI. I'm telling you AI will be the biggest bust since mortgage-backed securities. $400 Billion dollars for a glorified chat bot.
Taiwan is Taiwan, china is china, different country. only 2 countries can make advanced chip, one is Korea, another is Taiwan. china's smic is impossible...
@@SalesManual There is no such thing as Taiwan. It called the Republic of China. SMIC was founded by EX TSMC employees and American bankers. TSMC has FABS on the mainland. Every Administration continues the One China Policy. Including Trump and Biden. Please Educated yourself. PEACE.
@@genuinennessbefitting4734 The US cannot make 7 nm and below. Just look at INTEL. We are talking about producing it. Not designing it. The MATE 60 and PURA phones have SMIC 7 nm chips with quadruple patterning. I don't know the yield rate. But the more they make it. The better they will get at it. I stand by my statement. It's Samsung, TSMC and SMIC are the largest producers of advance semiconductor. SMIC was founded by EX TSMC employees and American bankers. Peace.I
1:06 90% of all chips in the world are produced since 2019 and on, since you stole my Excel tables from me, only 10% was produces of all taoday's chips before 2019.
I really enjoyed his book 'Chip War' because of the way it looks at the topic with a historical perspective (i.e. chronologically).
and even better if you read the Chip War published in 1989
Fascinating insights by Chris, I read the book a year ago and have read the book again and again. Thanks for what you do.
Same book again and again…. .
Same here. I think I've read it 4 times now
@@TheParadoxy same
Great keynote!
Superb articulation and delivery.
Best presentation I've witnessed in 2024. Chris Miller is CLASS!
In what sense? Recap that the U.S. is targeting and cutting off China in the chip business to maintain its own supremacy? That the U.S. has done the same to Japan chip business in the 80s. That was Japan who surrendered. Let’s see how China survive it.
This semiconductor race is a marathon, and Confucius said a journey of thousand miles begin with a single step.
Morris Chang also values Chris Miller's insights.
I grew up near Eindhoven. Where philips built a road when they needed a road and it was not going to be built by the municipality. Philips also built a village for the workers, it had it's own GP's, own sports centres. Maybe them investing in energy is a start to 'doing something back' for society.
Chris Miller is a russologist, specialist in cold war. Somehow jumped on the train of chip technology. I doubt he has ever programmed something useful in his life. He's obviously wrong by saying the future of AI resides in finding more data to train on and that people are finding more and more data sources. The current largest LLM practically exhausted all the data available. New developmental leaps reside in finding different architecture.
He sells “insights” needed by the hawks.
Opportunist.
@@kirkhoo7456 Have you read his book??
Haha we’re not even close to exhausting data, there is much more
@@dipanshugupta4169 remaining Data are mostly proprietary. No one would give it away for free to train general LLM.
Great insights, effectively presented!
Very good lecture! After Japan and South Korea, China is next in to manufacturing chips. India has lost to China. Some design is there at the Semiconductor Laboratory at Mohali. India can still complement with stress on education and research.
Not sure 95% of ethnic indians are always living in a hallucination with this insane nationalist and obsession that they are good in science ? The thing that is most puzzling is that of their scale of obsession on the East Asian, particularly the Chinese. That explained why the indians have an inherent envy attitude towards their peer oriental peers. A word of advice ..stick to your own South Asia region chaos economy and poverty before talking about competition with others.
The development of semiconductor manufacturing today involves more than just knowledge and equipment; it also encompasses cultural environment, social resources, national values, and industry culture. This is evidenced by the different production capabilities of Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, despite having similar equipment and technological knowledge. If Taiwan were to be invaded by the Chinese government, its current state would be destroyed, and the world would lose the 90% of advanced semiconductor capacity that relies on Taiwan. This impact goes beyond Taiwan's security, posing a threat to the normal development and survival of the entire world.
Dear Chris, you forgot to mention that all the patents that makes the litographic processes in the ASML's chip-machines are American patents. So that gives USA the moral and legal rights to whom those machines may be sold.
Good work
kindly post more keynotes
Celebrate while you can.
I don't understand why this is called Chip War 2.0. It's just some collection of news topics, not much insights.
I think 1.0 is with Japan
Best video of the day
Most of the comments are trying to discredit this professor by saying his talk is all fake. As a person with no knowledge about semiconductors and other things I don't know who to believe
I agree. This guy is a opportunist, he basically said what the hawks like to hear. Not much insights.
What do hawks want to hear that he's said?
This guy is a Chinese expert. But he clearly does not understand China looks at an issue with decades horizon, like the International Space Station, missiles, advanced fighter etc.
Decades!
China just announced the 28 nm DUV machine after 6 years. Most of chips needed are 14 nm and above!
fake news from China
Rumor...
A hollow talk!
Chris, you will live long enough to witness China being able to produce all of them.
⭐️
You don't need cutting edge chips to train AI. You can also do it with chips with the same computational power. China can do it without Nvidia.
That would insanely bloat the energy demands and is not feasible because they have not figured out how to train AI across multiple data centers like Microsoft has. It's a scaling issue from both a computational and energy perspective.
@@JJGlyph
There is no doubt they will figure that out like Microsoft.
For energy, PRC has the most Green Energy and is adding it at a speed greater than anyone else many times.
So far, China will be mostly run on Green Energy with Beth low cost.
What’s your basis on your claim? Almost 90% of all current AI libraries, platforms and end user interfaces aka Programs aka Apps are written around CUDA, including the stuff by Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Huawei, etc. If you have no idea what CUDA is, this conversation will go nowhere. OpenCL is the only alternative to CUDA at the moment and it’s not really being used by any major AI related development, then you have things like Triton claiming hardware neutrality until you try to use it and realise alternative hardware is “in development” the. You look at it again a year later and it’s still “in development”
Your statement is like a CNN or BBC “expert” report.
Huawei’s Ascend series is probably using OpenCL buts it’s under testing for over 2 years now where they released an update to the hardware. Moore Threads is basically still at a 1000 series performance at about 175% TDP so basically not only slow but over-consuming. So layman idea of speed differences, a consumer 1000 series will generate 1 AI image in about 30 secs at 768x768 resolution while a consumer 3000 series will generate same image at the same power draw in 2.5 - 3s. Huawei is most definitely working on their own version of CUDA but the issue is never development but adoption, with enough iterations, you can get software parity, problem is convincing people to use it or to train enough people who know how to use it, this is not a short term effort.
When you say same computation power, I’m assuming you mean using older hardware, just more of it to achieve the same computation power, again that is really a seriously uninformed statement. The cross connects, required software overhead, as others mentioned power consumption, not to mention the amount of water and HVACS needed to do this. If you don’t know why Water and HVACS are involved, again this conversation will go nowhere.
this book is already outdated. i feel sorry the writer hasn't reached the break event point.
The advancement in China chip industry the last two years has totally trashed his book Chip War.
What advancement in China have you noticed? We see no advancement in China from the viewpoint of a tsmc engineer
hehehehe....
china....impossible....
He is not Chinese, why is he talking from the Chinese's point of view. He should just talk from his point of view.
Wisdom first, not money.
As long as you think only about money, you are in the level of subhuman.
Microsoft and meta think money
Microsoft & meta? Proof of the subhuman argument!
Nothing new 3 yearslater
What do you mean?
@@lateseptember3974 You need to come back in 3 years. Then you can add something like: "exactly, smart a**".
About the competition between US and China and how companies are investing billions and billions and other things but you are not telling the most important thing here, that is why is not worth watching this video.
Wisdom goes always before money and power not the way around as you are telling here.
Musk joke - it almost tore my ass off :)
This talk is total BS. US restrictions on chips to China is not about national security and AI per se. It’s about the economy. If it was about national security and AI, then why not let Huawei have access to advanced chips for its phones? Huawei was the first target of Americans restrictions and still is. Chris miller is an apologist for American empire.
American empire and national security have always been in concert.
You talk like typical Chinese. Not only America, but most democratic world do not trust CCP.
The Chinese people are very grateful to this man for giving China the opportunity to develop chips.
If your competitor has made a product cheap enough and you have to invest huge capital to rebuild its production capacity, you have actually cut off any competitor's opportunities. Thanks to this gentalman, his doctrine gave China an opportunity, what a genius!
Such 101 talk. Lmao.
Really basic talk. Nothing new here.
There are only 2 countries that can produce chips at 7nm and below at scale. South Korea's Samsung and China 's SMIC and TSMC. I'm 20 mins in and he's still talking about AI. I'm telling you AI will be the biggest bust since mortgage-backed securities. $400 Billion dollars for a glorified chat bot.
SMIC? What is the yield rate? If you mention about below 20%, the US can make 7 nm as well
Taiwan is Taiwan, china is china, different country.
only 2 countries can make advanced chip, one is Korea, another is Taiwan.
china's smic is impossible...
@@SalesManual There is no such thing as Taiwan. It called the Republic of China. SMIC was founded by EX TSMC employees and American bankers. TSMC has FABS on the mainland. Every Administration continues the One China Policy. Including Trump and Biden. Please Educated yourself. PEACE.
@@genuinennessbefitting4734 The US cannot make 7 nm and below. Just look at INTEL. We are talking about producing it. Not designing it. The MATE 60 and PURA phones have SMIC 7 nm chips with quadruple patterning. I don't know the yield rate. But the more they make it. The better they will get at it. I stand by my statement. It's Samsung, TSMC and SMIC are the largest producers of advance semiconductor. SMIC was founded by EX TSMC employees and American bankers. Peace.I
smic from China is far behind!
All those large data that you are mentioning here are nothing without my algorithm, I mean nothing in German we call it nul.
Let the children in the school learn about my algorithm, do not think only about money you are sick in your minds.
Lazy Americans won’t learn STEM any more
You are talking about money from microchips and not about the wisdom in the chip that is doing the calculations.
1:06 90% of all chips in the world are produced since 2019 and on, since you stole my Excel tables from me, only 10% was produces of all taoday's chips before 2019.
Rubbish