What a lecture with brilliance oozing out. The issue that singles out is the supremacy over chip manufacturing. Huge supply chain issues and world, is now divided into camps facing each other for supremacy in AI . This is obviously an issue of greater concern. Who knows the consequences of this geopolitical issue. In my view of with the explosion of knowledge at ever accelerating pace on an infinitesimal tiny little place in the Universe let's be friends ; can we all not work together silently and peacefully generation by generation. So many more possibilities for successive generations. My heartfelt compliments to the speaker whose brilliant book the chip wars has to be read. Hoping for a new book from him.
Very much enjoying this latest take on Chip Wars from Chris Miller. I thought his talk at MIT Securities Studies Program and uploaded here on UA-cam was fascinating, and this update is both timely and important.
What's the point? Chip war 1.0 was supposed to cripple China. Now he changed target to AI for 2.0. Isn't it just moving the goal post to sell some books?
In what sense? Recap that the U.S. is targeting and cutting off China in the chip business to maintain its own supremacy? That the U.S. has done the same to Japan chip business in the 80s. That was Japan who surrendered. Let’s see how China survive it.
From somebody who works in the industry, this is all true albeit very much distilled and simplified. A superb introduction/refresh source for lay people / students.
@@markrot4184 depends on what you want to learn. I usually do audible though. also, youtube is actually not a good source to learn (for certain subject), especially when it comes to state of the art economics and political issues. I recommend books, main stream news and professional newsletter such as TLDR, or semiconductor packaging news (i work in packaging so this is my professional mainstream news).
China has already won. The Americans just don't realize it yet and videos like this is part of their denial phase. They cannot process and accept this reality. The world will continue to rise without the US and they will slowly sink into oblivion.
I am focused on solving the last mile connectivity problem for bringing veracity to real-time data feeds - so there’s a continuous data source for you. The world will never run out of data, and the AI and ML algorithms needed for devices connected to processes and human beings, across industries, are going to be critically needed to solve real- world challenges. This is not going to be about what someone said or wrote thousands of years ago, and u covering insights about that. This is about uncovering insights in operating power plants, for example, or current chances in emissions and climate that will provide actionable insights. In some cases, robots and similar machines can automatically take those actions, provided they don’t violate the three laws of robotics and the zeroth law as well.
At it's core I think the crux is not necessarily a simple China - US perspective. Perhaps a more appropriate divide is the form of governance associated with the countries involved. That could be expressed as countries operating with authoritarian control over peoples versus countries which promote more individual freedoms sometimes referred to as democracies or rules-based societies.
18:24 I can see the source at the bottom of the page but can someone provide a more thorough way to access that? The international trade commission report done in 2023 has some seriously different figures on the United States
VERY MISLEADING chart at 34:13. This presentation was posted 3 weeks ago. It is late 2024 but this graphic says "Here are the companies who received the most H100 and H800 shipments from Nvidia this year." but the data is from 2023! Tesla is given as 15K but they have 30-50K in Austen and 100+K in Memphis online now as I write this. I am not able to evaluate the rest of this presentation but I am forced to wonder if there are other errors here.
No body will ever beat TSMC because TSMC has thousands of great engineers helping them; I don't mean their own engineers, I mean those from Nvdia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, etc. helping them to debug their processes while their competitors, for example Intel, have only their own.
You’re partially right. However, it’s in the best interest of Nvidia, AMD and everyone else to have a viable second option/competitor. So whoever can prove to be remotely competitive, they can get that help too.
Thank you for highlighting an important but so far undiscussed aspect of semiconductor research. It is not important who wins the race or fails to catch up. It is the use of the technology behind the product, evil or good with its possitive or negative outcome, which matters. Anything else is not imporrant at all.
The claim regarding complexity is misleading. The issue is not with manufacturing complexity; rather, it is only about Intellectual Property (IP). Once a successful process is implemented in production (end-to-end), the process is no longer complex-it exists in a predictable, fully established format. At this point, any perceived complexity dissolves, and systems operate with the highest possible level of nanoscale precision and certainty. You need to ask why synthetic complexity are being introduced through the supply chain dependencies, synthetically created.
Can you explain why then Intel cannot catch up to TSMC in manufacturing chips? Not without a huge R&D and investment in capital. Genuinely want to know the answer
The web we weave. Another point to make would be educating tomorrow's high tech workers. USA also has an edge in engineering education and we need to continue to emphasize STEM at every level
Very good lecture! After Japan and South Korea, China is next in to manufacturing chips. India has lost to China. Some design is there at the Semiconductor Laboratory at Mohali. India can still complement with stress on education and research.
Not sure 95% of ethnic indians are always living in a hallucination with this insane nationalist and obsession that they are good in science ? The thing that is most puzzling is that of their scale of obsession on the East Asian, particularly the Chinese. That explained why the indians have an inherent envy attitude towards their peer oriental peers. A word of advice ..stick to your own South Asia region chaos economy and poverty before talking about competition with others.
As a user of online pornography - I am so thankful that all this work is being to down to stay on the cutting edge - and creating a better life for all of us!
Chris Miller is a russologist, specialist in cold war. Somehow jumped on the train of chip technology. I doubt he has ever programmed something useful in his life. He's obviously wrong by saying the future of AI resides in finding more data to train on and that people are finding more and more data sources. The current largest LLM practically exhausted all the data available. New developmental leaps reside in finding different architecture.
PLEASE Focus on the data that is being displayed to make points! A few glimpses of absorbed Asians is there but the DATA have been carefully assembled by your great speakers is the CORE!
Overcome By Events (OBE) is an expression widely used in the USA military. The broader context surrounding your area of interest may suddenly change, thereby causing your prior plans and beliefs to become irrelevant. In this man's case, the emerging paralysis of modern China will alter his stated analyses and forecasts.
South Korea is the world's largest producer of semiconductors, but it's questionable whether the country is adequately prepared for the AI era. Chris Miller has some pointed suggestions for South Korea in the coming Chip war 2.0 era.
Malaysia has a strong foundation to grow its semiconductor industry. However, to achieve supremacy, the country must invest heavily in chip design and advanced fabrication capabilities, build a robust talent pipeline, and enhance R&D efforts. With strategic partnerships and continued government support, Malaysia could rise as a critical player in the global semiconductor supply chain .
There's already ongoing debate within the AI research community whether we have hit a wall with the scaling laws. If we are nearing the end of that then that suggests prompting strategies and agentic methods is where the advancements will continue. If that is the case, those are much harder to have any kind of monopoly over since they are relatively easy to develop yourself with very little resources.
Another important factor is the raw rare elements and specialized compounds used in the production of these chips. As far as I know, China has a near-monopoly in this regard. Sure, China cannot access lithography machines, but other countries cannot access the rare elements required to build these chips without first relying on China. I believe the whole business is more intertwined than what Dr. Miller portrays here.
@ crabm38 i think this monopoly will not longer be sustainable bc there are many researchers discovering alternatives from these rare materials that China supplies. So even in this field China can't beat the west for long time! Poor Mr.pooh!
Most of the comments are trying to discredit this professor by saying his talk is all fake. As a person with no knowledge about semiconductors and other things I don't know who to believe
Pretty much everything he explained is true. ASML makes the most complex machines that TSMC uses to manufacturer the most complex and dense chips, that are designed by NVidia, that powers the data centers to make AI work and expand by Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, Anthropic's Claude, over networks run by Amazon AWS , Microsoft Azure, and others. These Semis are down to 4 nanometers, whereas China is still in the 16-20 nanometer design utilization. Biden's Chips act was designed to protect the US lead and limit China's ability to catch up, and for US to build more Cjip fabrication centers in the US, and limit other countries (Japan, Korea, Netherlands) from exporting the top technology to China.
along with AI chips, the communication high bandwidth interface called Ultra Ethernet Specification, the standards development and specs release must be under US control if it wants to prevent proliferation. its the standards development that also need prevention of its unjustifiable use . the open standards in general is likely getting taken over by china, ex:risc-v
@@TheParadoxy The good thing about the abundant China shills is that they tend to be dumb. On the other hand, quantity has a quality of its own, even in propaganda.
Why are chips important, for many reasons. But perhaps the most important is that leading edge GPUs are needed to make major advances in AI. AI is a technology that will change society. As recent as 1 month ago (today is 1/1/2025) we thought the US was 2-3 years ahead of China. 1 week ago we heard about deep seek 3. It outperforms Chat GPT, llama 3.1 and all other LLM where US IA giants have spent literally billions and billions of dollars. But catching up may be the small detail. They caught up using dumbed down GPUs (H800) and only 2048 of them instead of the 100,000+ GPUs in giant AI data centers. If they can repeat this for other AI applications, it represents a leap forward, that makes everything C. Miller say obsolete.
Is there any recognition or understanding that the laws of physics are available to any nation with the abilities to use them? We're eyeball deep in man made catastrophes lthat requires cooperation and peace. In addition to the damages related to the spewing of 57 billion tons of greenhouse gases pollution into our globally shared atmosphere per Exxon were DEPLETING fossil fuels reserves at the rate of 15% annually.
@kreek22 it's verbatim from exxon's report. Available no charge on their website. Apparently Exxon hires low IQ report writers. BTW I'm currently 10 miles from the first commercial oil well drilled in 1859 by Colonel Drake. That well and the thousands in the region are all dry sir. Contrary to opinions of high IQ fellas like you there is no Fossil Fuel Fairy refilling the holes.
@kreek22 do any of you trolls have the courage to use your name? If you have a credible report that disproves ExxonMobil's report provide the details. When I learn something with sufficient evidence I change my understanding.. troll
I grew up near Eindhoven. Where philips built a road when they needed a road and it was not going to be built by the municipality. Philips also built a village for the workers, it had it's own GP's, own sports centres. Maybe them investing in energy is a start to 'doing something back' for society.
China can only manufacture some low-end IC products. Such as RISC-V , ARM, non-volatile memory, or x86 previous versions. They don't have their own line of product, and they don't have any software product as systematic development.
существующий статус в "полупроводниках" - обеспечивают США+ЕС+Япония+Корея+Тайвань. По какой причине выдвигается без доказательств тезис - что Китай в одиночку не способен обеспечить этот статус? Население больше, экономика сильнее, профильные инвестиции - больше на порядок. собственно, он уже это сделал - пусть и с отставанием на 5-10 лет. докладчик судя по всему чемпион среди страусов🙄
The title "WAR". Some people turn everything into weapons. They have no neighbour but adv. as conolies. Can they accept that someone else can develop new solutions? Narsist can not and want all the money as the solution. I hope this video can show the difference.
The guy is just a walking news feed and press review, with no actual interest, and not even a drop of intelligence coming from his own mind. The US has triggered the collapse of the semiconductor industry by pushing China toward self-sufficiency. Already, we can feel the pressure building in the mature semiconductor sector, and soon, the pack will catch up to the leaders. For the optimists, China is now only 18 to 36 months behind the leaders. In one or two years, we’ll see a complete reconfiguration of the industry, and in the end, the US has simply sabotaged the very field it was still capable of dominating.
I am sorry to say this, but data center in China is not as well connected as other data centers outside China. The Great Firewall is slowing down and making it hard to feed and extract data from the datacenters within China. To much regulation hurdles. The AI developed locally is okay for local use scenario but mostly is using copycat tools developed abroad.
That would insanely bloat the energy demands and is not feasible because they have not figured out how to train AI across multiple data centers like Microsoft has. It's a scaling issue from both a computational and energy perspective.
@@JJGlyph There is no doubt they will figure that out like Microsoft. For energy, PRC has the most Green Energy and is adding it at a speed greater than anyone else many times. So far, China will be mostly run on Green Energy with Beth low cost.
What’s your basis on your claim? Almost 90% of all current AI libraries, platforms and end user interfaces aka Programs aka Apps are written around CUDA, including the stuff by Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Huawei, etc. If you have no idea what CUDA is, this conversation will go nowhere. OpenCL is the only alternative to CUDA at the moment and it’s not really being used by any major AI related development, then you have things like Triton claiming hardware neutrality until you try to use it and realise alternative hardware is “in development” the. You look at it again a year later and it’s still “in development” Your statement is like a CNN or BBC “expert” report. Huawei’s Ascend series is probably using OpenCL buts it’s under testing for over 2 years now where they released an update to the hardware. Moore Threads is basically still at a 1000 series performance at about 175% TDP so basically not only slow but over-consuming. So layman idea of speed differences, a consumer 1000 series will generate 1 AI image in about 30 secs at 768x768 resolution while a consumer 3000 series will generate same image at the same power draw in 2.5 - 3s. Huawei is most definitely working on their own version of CUDA but the issue is never development but adoption, with enough iterations, you can get software parity, problem is convincing people to use it or to train enough people who know how to use it, this is not a short term effort. When you say same computation power, I’m assuming you mean using older hardware, just more of it to achieve the same computation power, again that is really a seriously uninformed statement. The cross connects, required software overhead, as others mentioned power consumption, not to mention the amount of water and HVACS needed to do this. If you don’t know why Water and HVACS are involved, again this conversation will go nowhere.
@@JigilJigil Your point does not disapprove my argument at all. You just forget China is A developing country, not developed countries. And China is also the Factory for the World. So huge part of its carbon emissions is for people in other countries.
this speaker keeps saying China imports more chips than oil, but didnot mention ever once that 40% of thoses imported chips are integrited in down stream products and exports to international markets.
There’s a variety of other elements critical for semiconductors that china does NOT have. That’s the point. No single nation can monopolize semiconductors ,it depends on global inputs
The Open Source Collaborative Commons has been fundamental to building the worlds largest machine and solving the world's most complex problem : The Internet Mapping The Human Genome Methinks today AI is an Open Source Technology built on Open Source Technologies. Open collaboration is fundamental to solving the world's biggest problems and the 3opens are the keys 🗝️ 🗝️ 🗝️ (Open Source Hardware + Open Source Software + Open Data)
It's a tangled web we weave. Enemies dependent on each other for parts needed to be each others enemy. Who's gonna blow away AI? you may have heard Elon's name before in other major success stories. Look out for what he's building now and at accelerated pace.
{3:56] All well and good. However, there is the issue of the veracity and validity of the data -- ever more of which is generated by hallucinating AI systems -- so as not to fall into the Hegelian trap of the "synthesis" that corresponds with a key aspect of The DIM Hypothesis. As a key component of its dominance of the world of Big Data: "The US is by far the world's largest producer of porn; nearly a quarter of all online porn is from the US, the #2 spot goes to the UK, which produces less than 6%." So . . . There's that :-)
China can pay anybody they want. Some people don't even need to get paid, some people just have a natural affinity toward other countries and it usually leads to them receiving funding from those countries. Some people are purely cowards too
Great presentation. And then there is Africa. Still focused on physiological needs on Maslow's hierachy of needs..... busy bickering politically on which tribe has the biggest share......while critical mineral resources are mined out of the continent.
This guy is a Chinese expert. But he clearly does not understand China looks at an issue with decades horizon, like the International Space Station, missiles, advanced fighter etc. Decades! China just announced the 28 nm DUV machine after 6 years. Most of chips needed are 14 nm and above!
During the last 4 decades China has spent over 100 billions of dollars to make its own domestic airliner, and it couldn't, after miserable failures, they asked US to make them one, Comac, an airliner, that all its ciritcal parts, and7 0% of its components come from US and Europe. China made its space station, with decades of free accessible data and design from NASA and ESA, etc... when it comes to space stations literally any country that can afford it can build it, the case of China's station is even worse, built on mostly the technologies that was transfered from Russia, and based on the outdated Soviet technologies, and it's not it, the best part is that they couldn't even make the docking system by themselves, again Russia tech transfer, basically they asked russian to made them one, also they couldn't make the crew vehicle, it's essentially the outdated Russian Soyuz vehicle with Chinese letters on it.
@ You forget 40 years ago, PRC was the poorest country on earth, worse than worse countries in Africa. So you just need to wait another 40 years. Be Patient!
Excellent lecture by Chris Miller.....There is so much to learn....The voice and modulation in terms of speed, clarity... Superb
Agree!!. Excellent presentation, hard not to listen.
Seriously, I'm taking notes.
Very soothing and authentic voice. Can't fake that.
Morris Chang also values Chris Miller's insights.
Great keynote!
Superb articulation and delivery.
What a lecture with brilliance oozing out. The issue that singles out is the supremacy over chip manufacturing. Huge supply chain issues and world, is now divided into camps facing each other for supremacy in AI . This is obviously an issue of greater concern. Who knows the consequences of this geopolitical issue.
In my view of with the explosion of knowledge at ever accelerating pace on an infinitesimal tiny little place in the Universe let's be friends ; can we all not work together silently and peacefully generation by generation. So many more possibilities for successive generations.
My heartfelt compliments to the speaker whose brilliant book the chip wars has to be read. Hoping for a new book from him.
Brilliant lecture. Chris Miller knows the way people pay attention to his speech.
Very much enjoying this latest take on Chip Wars from Chris Miller. I thought his talk at MIT Securities Studies Program and uploaded here on UA-cam was fascinating, and this update is both timely and important.
Fascinating insights by Chris, I read the book a year ago and have read the book again and again. Thanks for what you do.
Same book again and again…. .
Same here. I think I've read it 4 times now
@@TheParadoxy same
What's the point? Chip war 1.0 was supposed to cripple China. Now he changed target to AI for 2.0. Isn't it just moving the goal post to sell some books?
@@henli-rw5dw there's only one book and Miller makes it clear that the chip war is about AI in that book from 2022. Your response makes no sense
Best presentation I've witnessed in 2024. Chris Miller is CLASS!
In what sense? Recap that the U.S. is targeting and cutting off China in the chip business to maintain its own supremacy? That the U.S. has done the same to Japan chip business in the 80s. That was Japan who surrendered. Let’s see how China survive it.
I really enjoyed his book 'Chip War' because of the way it looks at the topic with a historical perspective (i.e. chronologically).
and even better if you read the Chip War published in 1989
Gonna have to read it. I'm assuming there's less lip-smacking than in this presentation.
From somebody who works in the industry, this is all true albeit very much distilled and simplified. A superb introduction/refresh source for lay people / students.
What are some other videos you would suggest?
@@markrot4184 depends on what you want to learn. I usually do audible though. also, youtube is actually not a good source to learn (for certain subject), especially when it comes to state of the art economics and political issues. I recommend books, main stream news and professional newsletter such as TLDR, or semiconductor packaging news (i work in packaging so this is my professional mainstream news).
Excellent presentation. Thank you for that.
shut up
Reflections of geopoliticals. This is note de future, is on going now! Congrats.
This is the best talk on AI that I've seen
AI is very good at regurgitating AI speak simply because there is so much of it around these days. The drone/s of AI speak.
What a great speech 🤩
I learned so much from you, Dr. Miller!! 😊
This semiconductor race is a marathon, and Confucius said a journey of thousand miles begin with a single step.
？那是老子说的。
is it though? not sure we can make things any smaller... i think we need nuclear-powered massive data centers....
As haochengzai said, this quote is generally attributed to Lao Tzu
China has already won. The Americans just don't realize it yet and videos like this is part of their denial phase. They cannot process and accept this reality. The world will continue to rise without the US and they will slowly sink into oblivion.
Most fascination chart I seen in a long while: 17:48.
Great insights, effectively presented!
I see why mainland China is required to learn English. This is masterful presentation
Excellent presentation in explaining the semiconductor field across the globe!
AI hot. Chips complicated. US will stop China from getting access. That's all he really says, in repetitive language.
That’s like saying that the sun rising on the east and setting on the west is really all a day is.
Listen carefully.
он еще одну вещь сказал, еще больше раз. что никто не способен в одиночку это сделать.
но Китай уже сделал - еще 5 лет назад🙄
@@parteincerta смысл слушать какой-то бред? человек или врет прямо все время или говорит о том о чем не имеет понятия🤔
Apt.You nailed it
What's important from the talk isn't the actual points but the justification and evidence he gives for each point.
I am focused on solving the last mile connectivity problem for bringing veracity to real-time data feeds - so there’s a continuous data source for you. The world will never run out of data, and the AI and ML algorithms needed for devices connected to processes and human beings, across industries, are going to be critically needed to solve real- world challenges. This is not going to be about what someone said or wrote thousands of years ago, and u covering insights about that. This is about uncovering insights in operating power plants, for example, or current chances in emissions and climate that will provide actionable insights. In some cases, robots and similar machines can automatically take those actions, provided they don’t violate the three laws of robotics and the zeroth law as well.
Fascinating erudition perfectly performed thank you
At it's core I think the crux is not necessarily a simple China - US perspective. Perhaps a more appropriate divide is the form of governance associated with the countries involved. That could be expressed as countries operating with authoritarian control over peoples versus countries which promote more individual freedoms sometimes referred to as democracies or rules-based societies.
One of the most insightful lectures on AI which covers the aspect of both science and politics.
18:24 I can see the source at the bottom of the page but can someone provide a more thorough way to access that? The international trade commission report done in 2023 has some seriously different figures on the United States
Best video of the day
VERY MISLEADING chart at 34:13. This presentation was posted 3 weeks ago. It is late 2024 but this graphic says "Here are the companies who received the most H100 and H800 shipments from Nvidia this year." but the data is from 2023! Tesla is given as 15K but they have 30-50K in Austen and 100+K in Memphis online now as I write this. I am not able to evaluate the rest of this presentation but I am forced to wonder if there are other errors here.
No body will ever beat TSMC because TSMC has thousands of great engineers helping them; I don't mean their own engineers, I mean those from Nvdia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, etc. helping them to debug their processes while their competitors, for example Intel, have only their own.
You’re partially right. However, it’s in the best interest of Nvidia, AMD and everyone else to have a viable second option/competitor. So whoever can prove to be remotely competitive, they can get that help too.
If you are familiar with the recent event between nvidia and tsmc, it’s more like tsmc helping nvidia finding issues in their design haha
you clearly are not working in any of the companies you mentioned
The CCP?
TSMC makes. NVIDIA owns IP
This a lecture so great,i Relly have enjoyed
Good work
kindly post more keynotes
26:41 Two atoms thick and two atoms wide? That is mindboggling.
By the way, I listened to his book 'Chip Wars' and it was fascinating.
Thank you for highlighting an important but so far undiscussed aspect of semiconductor research.
It is not important who wins the race or fails to catch up. It is the use of the technology behind the product, evil or good with its possitive or negative outcome, which matters.
Anything else is not imporrant at all.
Define good Define evil. Provide examples. Is it acceptable to use it for good in your own nation and have evil purposes against your enemies dujour?
The claim regarding complexity is misleading. The issue is not with manufacturing complexity; rather, it is only about Intellectual Property (IP). Once a successful process is implemented in production (end-to-end), the process is no longer complex-it exists in a predictable, fully established format. At this point, any perceived complexity dissolves, and systems operate with the highest possible level of nanoscale precision and certainty. You need to ask why synthetic complexity are being introduced through the supply chain dependencies, synthetically created.
Catallaxy is real.
Can you explain why then Intel cannot catch up to TSMC in manufacturing chips? Not without a huge R&D and investment in capital. Genuinely want to know the answer
@@tabeenraoof1027 My best guess is sclerotic bureaucracy and the woke mind virus.
The web we weave. Another point to make would be educating tomorrow's high tech workers. USA also has an edge in engineering education and we need to continue to emphasize STEM at every level
Thank you very much!
Very good lecture! After Japan and South Korea, China is next in to manufacturing chips. India has lost to China. Some design is there at the Semiconductor Laboratory at Mohali. India can still complement with stress on education and research.
Not sure 95% of ethnic indians are always living in a hallucination with this insane nationalist and obsession that they are good in science ? The thing that is most puzzling is that of their scale of obsession on the East Asian, particularly the Chinese. That explained why the indians have an inherent envy attitude towards their peer oriental peers. A word of advice ..stick to your own South Asia region chaos economy and poverty before talking about competition with others.
China is unable to manufacture advanced chips.
u forgot Taiwan😂 unbelievable
As a user of online pornography - I am so thankful that all this work is being to down to stay on the cutting edge - and creating a better life for all of us!
Chris Miller is a russologist, specialist in cold war. Somehow jumped on the train of chip technology. I doubt he has ever programmed something useful in his life. He's obviously wrong by saying the future of AI resides in finding more data to train on and that people are finding more and more data sources. The current largest LLM practically exhausted all the data available. New developmental leaps reside in finding different architecture.
He sells “insights” needed by the hawks.
Opportunist.
@@kirkhoo7456 Have you read his book??
Haha we’re not even close to exhausting data, there is much more
@@dipanshugupta4169 remaining Data are mostly proprietary. No one would give it away for free to train general LLM.
Data very important to every country
PLEASE Focus on the data that is being displayed to make points! A few glimpses of absorbed Asians is there but the DATA have been carefully assembled by your great speakers is the CORE!
this is the best comment here
Good presentation 👍
May be because I work in IT and read about these things, but till 20 minutes mark there is not a single insight speaker has shared!
Overcome By Events (OBE) is an expression widely used in the USA military. The broader context surrounding your area of interest may suddenly change, thereby causing your prior plans and beliefs to become irrelevant. In this man's case, the emerging paralysis of modern China will alter his stated analyses and forecasts.
Superb, this is a 'must see' for almost everyone.
This planet belongs to human not AI, you can advocate for darkness as much as you could, but human are the only creatures who have spirit and souls 💖
South Korea is the world's largest producer of semiconductors, but it's questionable whether the country is adequately prepared for the AI era. Chris Miller has some pointed suggestions for South Korea in the coming Chip war 2.0 era.
Correction: Taiwan
" Journey of Thousand Miles begins with single step"
A hollow talk!
Why?
Malaysia has a strong foundation to grow its semiconductor industry. However, to achieve supremacy, the country must invest heavily in chip design and advanced fabrication capabilities, build a robust talent pipeline, and enhance R&D efforts. With strategic partnerships and continued government support, Malaysia could rise as a critical player in the global semiconductor supply chain .
For a US that is now beyond the last chance saloon, dominance in AI, as a play to retain global dominance, is a desperate hand to play :-)
Not even close deep seek, it's number one.
There's already ongoing debate within the AI research community whether we have hit a wall with the scaling laws. If we are nearing the end of that then that suggests prompting strategies and agentic methods is where the advancements will continue. If that is the case, those are much harder to have any kind of monopoly over since they are relatively easy to develop yourself with very little resources.
You guys should discuss how the chips tech becomes normal education, since that chips are extensive to humans lives being one of necessarily products.
The Gordon Chang of IC industry.
Another important factor is the raw rare elements and specialized compounds used in the production of these chips. As far as I know, China has a near-monopoly in this regard. Sure, China cannot access lithography machines, but other countries cannot access the rare elements required to build these chips without first relying on China. I believe the whole business is more intertwined than what Dr. Miller portrays here.
@ crabm38 i think this monopoly will not longer be sustainable bc there are many researchers discovering alternatives from these rare materials that China supplies. So even in this field China can't beat the west for long time! Poor Mr.pooh!
Having the best chips without having deep wisdom will cause more harm than good.
@23:00 he's wrong, chips are not the world's most traded good. It's no.3 globally. No.1 is cars and no.2 is oil.
All those cars need chips...and so does many more electronic goods
@@sabujmia8849 yes I know. Doesn't change the fact.
Most of the comments are trying to discredit this professor by saying his talk is all fake. As a person with no knowledge about semiconductors and other things I don't know who to believe
Pretty much everything he explained is true. ASML makes the most complex machines that TSMC uses to manufacturer the most complex and dense chips, that are designed by NVidia, that powers the data centers to make AI work and expand by Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, Anthropic's Claude, over networks run by Amazon AWS , Microsoft Azure, and others. These Semis are down to 4 nanometers, whereas China is still in the 16-20 nanometer design utilization. Biden's Chips act was designed to protect the US lead and limit China's ability to catch up, and for US to build more Cjip fabrication centers in the US, and limit other countries (Japan, Korea, Netherlands) from exporting the top technology to China.
@KRapPsychic thanks for the info
along with AI chips, the communication high bandwidth interface called Ultra Ethernet Specification, the standards development and specs release must be under US control if it wants to prevent proliferation. its the standards development that also need prevention of its unjustifiable use . the open standards in general is likely getting taken over by china, ex:risc-v
Chris Miller could read the dictionary and make it mellifluous.
I agree. This guy is a opportunist, he basically said what the hawks like to hear. Not much insights.
What do hawks want to hear that he's said?
@@TheParadoxy The good thing about the abundant China shills is that they tend to be dumb. On the other hand, quantity has a quality of its own, even in propaganda.
Why are chips important, for many reasons. But perhaps the most important is that leading edge GPUs are needed to make major advances in AI. AI is a technology that will change society. As recent as 1 month ago (today is 1/1/2025) we thought the US was 2-3 years ahead of China. 1 week ago we heard about deep seek 3. It outperforms Chat GPT, llama 3.1 and all other LLM where US IA giants have spent literally billions and billions of dollars. But catching up may be the small detail. They caught up using dumbed down GPUs (H800) and only 2048 of them instead of the 100,000+ GPUs in giant AI data centers. If they can repeat this for other AI applications, it represents a leap forward, that makes everything C. Miller say obsolete.
some information about China's chip manufacturing ability is outdated
I don't understand why this is called Chip War 2.0. It's just some collection of news topics, not much insights.
I think 1.0 is with Japan
Cause branding…. 😂
Is there any recognition or understanding that the laws of physics are available to any nation with the abilities to use them? We're eyeball deep in man made catastrophes lthat requires cooperation and peace. In addition to the damages related to the spewing of 57 billion tons of greenhouse gases pollution into our globally shared atmosphere per Exxon were DEPLETING fossil fuels reserves at the rate of 15% annually.
Your depletion claim is not only wrong, it is a low IQ form of wrong.
@kreek22 it's verbatim from exxon's report. Available no charge on their website. Apparently Exxon hires low IQ report writers. BTW I'm currently 10 miles from the first commercial oil well drilled in 1859 by Colonel Drake. That well and the thousands in the region are all dry sir. Contrary to opinions of high IQ fellas like you there is no Fossil Fuel Fairy refilling the holes.
@kreek22 do any of you trolls have the courage to use your name? If you have a credible report that disproves ExxonMobil's report provide the details. When I learn something with sufficient evidence I change my understanding.. troll
I grew up near Eindhoven. Where philips built a road when they needed a road and it was not going to be built by the municipality. Philips also built a village for the workers, it had it's own GP's, own sports centres. Maybe them investing in energy is a start to 'doing something back' for society.
Communist traitor
Philips is no longer as big and powerful as it used to be in the good old times. How many Philips devices did you buy in recent years?
so ... yes ... there is one semiconductor manufacturer in the US ... intel
bro sounds like ai himself.
China can only manufacture some low-end IC products. Such as RISC-V , ARM, non-volatile memory, or x86 previous versions. They don't have their own line of product, and they don't have any software product as systematic development.
One mountain only allowed one lion king, coexistence is impossible could happen!
AND THE WINNER IS . . . . . ?
The guy places high expectations on the flawed creations made by humans (AI).
Wonder when this video was originally created?
Too bad US law does not mandate original creation date of videos.
Semiconductor industry could not be buyout by money.
I have a way to make chips that process faster. 1:15
Optimism in semi conductors is mainly from India. India is going to take on the current leaders and surpass them by the end of this decade!!!
существующий статус в "полупроводниках" - обеспечивают США+ЕС+Япония+Корея+Тайвань. По какой причине выдвигается без доказательств тезис - что Китай в одиночку не способен обеспечить этот статус? Население больше, экономика сильнее, профильные инвестиции - больше на порядок. собственно, он уже это сделал - пусть и с отставанием на 5-10 лет.
докладчик судя по всему чемпион среди страусов🙄
Wisdom first, not money.
As long as you think only about money, you are in the level of subhuman.
Microsoft and meta think money
Microsoft & meta? Proof of the subhuman argument!
The title "WAR". Some people turn everything into weapons. They have no neighbour but adv. as conolies. Can they accept that someone else can develop new solutions? Narsist can not and want all the money as the solution. I hope this video can show the difference.
The guy is just a walking news feed and press review, with no actual interest, and not even a drop of intelligence coming from his own mind. The US has triggered the collapse of the semiconductor industry by pushing China toward self-sufficiency. Already, we can feel the pressure building in the mature semiconductor sector, and soon, the pack will catch up to the leaders. For the optimists, China is now only 18 to 36 months behind the leaders. In one or two years, we’ll see a complete reconfiguration of the industry, and in the end, the US has simply sabotaged the very field it was still capable of dominating.
Mr. He, nice try. 😆
brilliant articulation
Are you joking? This guy has more vocal fry, than coke has calories
Japan made 56% of world semiconductors instead of TSMC%?
I thought the whole world could have neutral competition in the global market
I am sorry to say this, but data center in China is not as well connected as other data centers outside China. The Great Firewall is slowing down and making it hard to feed and extract data from the datacenters within China. To much regulation hurdles. The AI developed locally is okay for local use scenario but mostly is using copycat tools developed abroad.
You don't need cutting edge chips to train AI. You can also do it with chips with the same computational power. China can do it without Nvidia.
That would insanely bloat the energy demands and is not feasible because they have not figured out how to train AI across multiple data centers like Microsoft has. It's a scaling issue from both a computational and energy perspective.
@@JJGlyph
There is no doubt they will figure that out like Microsoft.
For energy, PRC has the most Green Energy and is adding it at a speed greater than anyone else many times.
So far, China will be mostly run on Green Energy with Beth low cost.
What’s your basis on your claim? Almost 90% of all current AI libraries, platforms and end user interfaces aka Programs aka Apps are written around CUDA, including the stuff by Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Huawei, etc. If you have no idea what CUDA is, this conversation will go nowhere. OpenCL is the only alternative to CUDA at the moment and it’s not really being used by any major AI related development, then you have things like Triton claiming hardware neutrality until you try to use it and realise alternative hardware is “in development” the. You look at it again a year later and it’s still “in development”
Your statement is like a CNN or BBC “expert” report.
Huawei’s Ascend series is probably using OpenCL buts it’s under testing for over 2 years now where they released an update to the hardware. Moore Threads is basically still at a 1000 series performance at about 175% TDP so basically not only slow but over-consuming. So layman idea of speed differences, a consumer 1000 series will generate 1 AI image in about 30 secs at 768x768 resolution while a consumer 3000 series will generate same image at the same power draw in 2.5 - 3s. Huawei is most definitely working on their own version of CUDA but the issue is never development but adoption, with enough iterations, you can get software parity, problem is convincing people to use it or to train enough people who know how to use it, this is not a short term effort.
When you say same computation power, I’m assuming you mean using older hardware, just more of it to achieve the same computation power, again that is really a seriously uninformed statement. The cross connects, required software overhead, as others mentioned power consumption, not to mention the amount of water and HVACS needed to do this. If you don’t know why Water and HVACS are involved, again this conversation will go nowhere.
@@qingzhou9983 Yes, 65% comes from coal, totally green.
@@JigilJigil
Your point does not disapprove my argument at all.
You just forget China is A developing country, not developed countries. And China is also the Factory for the World. So huge part of its carbon emissions is for people in other countries.
this speaker keeps saying China imports more chips than oil, but didnot mention ever once that 40% of thoses imported chips are integrited in down stream products and exports to international markets.
this book is already outdated. i feel sorry the writer hasn't reached the break event point.
Asian global countries scientists are increasing
All this dude is doing all his life so far is nothing more than expanding "The Strategy of Denial" of Elbridge Colby with chips.
This geesa didn't even mention the rare earth metals required to produce semiconductor chips. China is main producer of them.
There’s a variety of other elements critical for semiconductors that china does NOT have. That’s the point. No single nation can monopolize semiconductors ,it depends on global inputs
Celebrate while you can.
The Open Source Collaborative Commons has been fundamental to building the worlds largest machine and solving the world's most complex problem :
The Internet
Mapping The Human Genome
Methinks today AI is an Open Source Technology built on Open Source Technologies.
Open collaboration is fundamental to solving the world's biggest problems and the 3opens are the keys 🗝️ 🗝️ 🗝️
(Open Source Hardware +
Open Source Software +
Open Data)
It's a tangled web we weave. Enemies dependent on each other for parts needed to be each others enemy. Who's gonna blow away AI? you may have heard Elon's name before in other major success stories. Look out for what he's building now and at accelerated pace.
{3:56] All well and good. However, there is the issue of the veracity and validity of the data -- ever more of which is generated by hallucinating AI systems -- so as not to fall into the Hegelian trap of the "synthesis" that corresponds with a key aspect of The DIM Hypothesis. As a key component of its dominance of the world of Big Data: "The US is by far the world's largest producer of porn; nearly a quarter of all online porn is from the US, the #2 spot goes to the UK, which produces less than 6%." So . . . There's that :-)
AI is easy, filtering out every AI hallucination will require more energy than the sun 😂
Wow!
He is not Chinese, why is he talking from the Chinese's point of view. He should just talk from his point of view.
So what? Can you do anything to shut Chris up?
China can pay anybody they want. Some people don't even need to get paid, some people just have a natural affinity toward other countries and it usually leads to them receiving funding from those countries. Some people are purely cowards too
why so many praises to this speech? The entire speech has no insight, just a collection of news headlines. It can be summarized in 5 minutes.
Great presentation. And then there is Africa. Still focused on physiological needs on Maslow's hierachy of needs..... busy bickering politically on which tribe has the biggest share......while critical mineral resources are mined out of the continent.
Musk joke - it almost tore my ass off :)
This guy is a Chinese expert. But he clearly does not understand China looks at an issue with decades horizon, like the International Space Station, missiles, advanced fighter etc.
Decades!
China just announced the 28 nm DUV machine after 6 years. Most of chips needed are 14 nm and above!
fake news from China
Rumor...
No one cares about 28nm and above. Feel free to build your refrigerators with Chinese chips. But Taiwan 🇹🇼 gives world peace and prosperity.
During the last 4 decades China has spent over 100 billions of dollars to make its own domestic airliner, and it couldn't, after miserable failures, they asked US to make them one, Comac, an airliner, that all its ciritcal parts, and7 0% of its components come from US and Europe. China made its space station, with decades of free accessible data and design from NASA and ESA, etc... when it comes to space stations literally any country that can afford it can build it, the case of China's station is even worse, built on mostly the technologies that was transfered from Russia, and based on the outdated Soviet technologies, and it's not it, the best part is that they couldn't even make the docking system by themselves, again Russia tech transfer, basically they asked russian to made them one, also they couldn't make the crew vehicle, it's essentially the outdated Russian Soyuz vehicle with Chinese letters on it.
@
You forget 40 years ago, PRC was the poorest country on earth, worse than worse countries in Africa.
So you just need to wait another 40 years.
Be Patient!