Project Scheduling 2 -Calculating variance and probabilities -PERT/CPM

Поділитися
Вставка
  • Опубліковано 4 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 153

  • @katiabarretto1802
    @katiabarretto1802 5 років тому +53

    i learned more from this 4min video than i did in my 2 hour class. thank you

  • @Osorio
    @Osorio 5 років тому +95

    Watched 4 of your videos, learned my whole semester

  • @rt2000rt
    @rt2000rt 5 років тому +25

    Thank you sir, you just summarize my 2 hours course into 4 minutes.
    Well done sir.

  • @pagalhokya
    @pagalhokya 2 роки тому +8

    My degree might as well have "The University of Joshua Emmanuel" written on it. I pretty much learned my MBA concepts from you. You're better than most professors out there.

  • @bakihanma1680
    @bakihanma1680 11 місяців тому +1

    holly shit, you just saved my ass bro, my final's on monday & idk tf that even was when my prof explained it, and you did it in 4 minutes & I understood it all so easily. god bless you.

  • @ganee
    @ganee Рік тому +3

    This video is valuable even after 5 years. This video made me understand what my lecturer couldn't.

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому +1

      Glad to hear Ganee. Thanks for dropping a note.

    • @rifat115
      @rifat115 8 місяців тому

      Same to me❤

    • @rifat115
      @rifat115 8 місяців тому +1

      ​@@joshemman thanks for the videos ❤

  • @keremt.c2384
    @keremt.c2384 2 роки тому +1

    Thanks to you, I passed my final exam. Thank you so much.

  • @pardonfox331
    @pardonfox331 3 роки тому +1

    God Bless you Josh, you are indeed living for others. You are a Super Instructor..

  • @texculp67
    @texculp67 3 роки тому +1

    I stand AMAZED! Concise and presented professionally!! I want to work with you!!

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  3 роки тому

      Thanks for the comments, Tex. Want to work with me? I'm honored.

  • @deeptikumarroy8630
    @deeptikumarroy8630 3 роки тому

    This is a summary of an hour long lecture. Thank you so much!

  • @bogsespelekpek6542
    @bogsespelekpek6542 3 роки тому

    This is exactly what i am looking for! Great presentation! Keep making video to help others like me, who is trying to figure out what is missing on my book 🤣🤣🤣 youtube is really a great help to students! Thank you so much!

  • @quratulaind3168
    @quratulaind3168 2 роки тому +3

    I wish i found you during my bachelors in engineering, I would have made a far confident engineer

  • @deepthivanasarla1762
    @deepthivanasarla1762 6 місяців тому +1

    Thank you so much. You are just like a god. explained so detailed.

  • @MaxTheKing289
    @MaxTheKing289 Рік тому +1

    Thanks for this... A whole semester in 4min

  • @TheNeighborhoodCat
    @TheNeighborhoodCat Рік тому +1

    this shows you that there are much more effective methods of teaching.

  • @mave4395
    @mave4395 5 років тому +1

    Thank you for making the video! Now I know what Scheduling of project is all about

  • @bestxboxclips4331
    @bestxboxclips4331 4 роки тому +2

    I have an exam tomorrow, I love you, thanks so much

    • @AhmedXGhost007
      @AhmedXGhost007 4 роки тому

      same as me i love him so much he is my hero

  • @elliotbrush6854
    @elliotbrush6854 Рік тому +1

    Great video - very informative and easily digestible!

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      Thanks, Elliot. Nice to hear.

  • @ronaphiri2814
    @ronaphiri2814 4 роки тому

    Really educative in such a short period of time thank you🙏🏽

  • @turkialbarakati2022
    @turkialbarakati2022 2 роки тому +2

    Really very great. This video helped me a lot !!
    Thanks..

  • @glomari62
    @glomari62 4 роки тому

    Have got an exam and this has really helped! Thank you!!

  • @saribshakeel8767
    @saribshakeel8767 5 місяців тому

    Thank you for clear and precise understanding on this topic

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  5 місяців тому

      You're welcome, Sarib.

  • @aaryanbudhiraja1656
    @aaryanbudhiraja1656 5 років тому

    lol transformed an hour's lecture into 10 minutes, hats off

  • @varunbahirwani333
    @varunbahirwani333 2 роки тому +1

    Superbbb content 😃😃😃

  • @alejandramarentes6377
    @alejandramarentes6377 7 років тому +5

    best video ever, you solved all my doubts!! thank you so much btw im from Monterrey Mexico

  • @KingK742
    @KingK742 6 місяців тому

    Wa khasta monna 🫡

  • @nicgaddin3889
    @nicgaddin3889 4 роки тому

    This dude is the best on UA-cam!!! Da General

  • @belindagonzalez866
    @belindagonzalez866 Рік тому

    You are awsome, your PPT was great it was perfect.

  • @preritgoyal9293
    @preritgoyal9293 4 роки тому

    Very nice video sir.
    Short and sweet 😊😊

  • @natalieinspired8
    @natalieinspired8 3 роки тому

    You deserve a medal.

  • @roseannrawls1584
    @roseannrawls1584 Рік тому +1

    This was Perfect...

  • @hashemalkhatib5543
    @hashemalkhatib5543 7 років тому +1

    Hello Joshua , Thanks for clear explanation . please which program are you using to present your videos ?

  • @aissajez911
    @aissajez911 5 років тому +6

    3:55 I think there's an error there when you said the project should start 36 weeks earlier, I think the project should start 3.7 weeks earlier than the initial planning to end on time with 90% probability, because what we have calculated is the total duration of the project (critical path) and it's 35.7w, while we had 32w as initial duration. so we should substract 35.7-32=3.7weeks. not about 36 weeks earlier. correct me if I'm wrong please

  • @WonderlandX-fc3ss
    @WonderlandX-fc3ss Рік тому

    If there are 2 critical path, which one should we use to calculate variance?

  • @MrAbiteha
    @MrAbiteha 5 років тому

    Superb. Short and precise.

  • @jiamiamom
    @jiamiamom 5 років тому

    test coming up April 10. THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH

  • @racouplift7914
    @racouplift7914 9 днів тому

    For the last question. How did you get z = 1.28 ?

  • @themage5175
    @themage5175 3 роки тому +1

    If there are multiple critical path, does that mean we need to find probability for each path?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  3 роки тому

      Typically, you use the critical path with the largest variance.

  • @kiranpannu3822
    @kiranpannu3822 4 роки тому +1

    from where we get optimistic,most likely and pessimistic values?

  • @vrushali9599
    @vrushali9599 4 роки тому

    Thank You For this Amazing video...👍👍

  • @woweffect9731
    @woweffect9731 2 роки тому

    Hey Joshua nice video, one question: what if the Time t is not an integer...? Round it up...?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  2 роки тому

      Time does not have to be an integer. So only round if necessary or required.

  • @pushpavechalapu6579
    @pushpavechalapu6579 4 роки тому

    Super sir ,I understand clearly 👌👌

  • @moseschikusela9182
    @moseschikusela9182 Рік тому +1

    You are great

  • @amzadhossain1213
    @amzadhossain1213 Місяць тому

    Excellent!

  • @Chukwudum._
    @Chukwudum._ 2 місяці тому

    Sir, the areas now
    Which graph are you using?

  • @shresthai3515
    @shresthai3515 Рік тому +1

    Hi Joshua, Is there a reason why are we dividing by 6? It is always 6 no matter the number of activities?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому +3

      Yes. We always divide by 6 no matter the number of activities.
      The expected value is a weighted average.
      “a” has a weight of 1
      “m” has a weight of 4
      “b” has a weight of 1.
      Total weight = 1 + 4 + 1 = 6

    • @shresthai3515
      @shresthai3515 Рік тому

      Oh thank you very much. @@joshemman

    • @andrewmurschel2608
      @andrewmurschel2608 7 місяців тому

      I had this same question. Glad it was already answered :)

  • @chocomaloipie0408
    @chocomaloipie0408 11 місяців тому

    thank you so much, sir!

  • @ZoePaal
    @ZoePaal Рік тому

    Helpful, thanks. Do you have a Google Sheet template to do this or can you recommend one?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      You mean, to calculate the normal probabilities?

    • @ZoePaal
      @ZoePaal Рік тому

      @@joshemman Thx for the reply. The whole thing actually. From the table for calculating variance to calculating those z scores

  • @ender_paul
    @ender_paul Рік тому

    Can you find the critical path if the only given is optimistic, most likely , and pessimistic?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      You must know the predecessors as well.

  • @isha6289
    @isha6289 8 місяців тому

    Thank you so much❤

  • @ahmedibrahim4542
    @ahmedibrahim4542 3 роки тому

    thanks alot It really helped me

  • @husseinahmed4348
    @husseinahmed4348 5 років тому +1

    Astonishing ....could u teach us project crash

  • @SA-ty5du
    @SA-ty5du 6 років тому

    Excellent videos , thank you so much 🙏🏻

  • @cleanenergy79
    @cleanenergy79 3 роки тому +1

    How did you get 32 as the mean

  • @WillisMadden
    @WillisMadden 4 роки тому

    Great Instruction!!!!!

  • @camilaparola2781
    @camilaparola2781 5 років тому

    Great explanation! Thank you!

  • @Anonymous-mi6
    @Anonymous-mi6 3 роки тому

    What is the probability that the project will need or take more than 31 days?

  • @justinhall7022
    @justinhall7022 6 років тому +1

    You are a lifesaver!

  • @bensmith6987
    @bensmith6987 5 років тому

    Great video. Thank you.

  • @bmtamim7818
    @bmtamim7818 Рік тому +1

    Why (a+4m+b)/6?
    Is the 6 is fixed or this can be changed?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      The 6 is fixed.
      It's a weighted average. The weights are
      a: 1
      m: 4
      b: 1
      Total: 6

    • @bmtamim7818
      @bmtamim7818 Рік тому

      @@joshemman Thanks a lot❤️

  • @drunkengunner9092
    @drunkengunner9092 4 роки тому

    I love you man. Thank You so much.

  • @AkinveNazIrlanda
    @AkinveNazIrlanda 6 років тому

    Importantly, if 36 weeks promises %90 chance success of the project, is that mean 32 weeks promise %80 chance of success?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  6 років тому +2

      32 is the mean. It promises 50% chance of success.

    • @AkinveNazIrlanda
      @AkinveNazIrlanda 6 років тому

      ​@@joshemman Okay. Can we use this technique in also construction sector for activity and project estimations? Some people says it is not convenient because of %50 chance. Let say, still we choose this technique for application. What would be the good part to use PERT in that field? Thanks.

    • @skylarkenneth2407
      @skylarkenneth2407 6 років тому

      @@AkinveNazIrlanda PERT can be used in a construction setting, that's what I inferred from reading my textbook. PERT originated from the military with unknown duration of tasks to be completed in a research and development environment. PERT was designed for uncertainties. However, using historical data or logic to construct reasonable time estimates for task duration is a big plus. If you look at the stats in the video, 4 more weeks for +40% success rate...seems worth the wait.

  • @Olivia-light.joy.and_peace
    @Olivia-light.joy.and_peace 2 роки тому +1

    big brain :) thank you!!

  • @sawmtea5755
    @sawmtea5755 Рік тому

    So helpful!

  • @Lydie97
    @Lydie97 6 років тому

    best explanation!

  • @diavionnewilson6789
    @diavionnewilson6789 2 роки тому

    How would I go about calculating probability of completion time of, for example, exactly 37 weeks. Would I be able to answer less than or equal to 37 weeks and this would be sufficient? Or do I need to subtract probably of more than 36 weeks but less than 38 weeks?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  2 роки тому +1

      The probability of "exactly" should be zero because we're dealing with a continuous distribution.

  • @michaelmanias4560
    @michaelmanias4560 5 років тому

    Thank you for making this!

  • @jieben777
    @jieben777 Рік тому

    How did you compute for the area???

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому +1

      It was obtained from the Z table.

  • @phonugper7880
    @phonugper7880 Рік тому

    Hi Joshua, may i know what software you use to animate the chart?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      I use PowerPoint for the charts but I edit and annotate using Camtasia Studio.

  • @TheMorgalion
    @TheMorgalion 2 місяці тому

    Hello! @2:40, where do you get the value 35 weeks and 31 weeks? Thank you

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  2 місяці тому

      As shown on screen μ = 32, and in
      a) we want the probability P(X < 35)

  • @gilangtjahyadi826
    @gilangtjahyadi826 7 місяців тому

    sir i have one question, at 2:47 u got the value of P = 0,8508 from the table, how u get that value? and what the table is that? i don't understand, would u like to explain me please... thank you.

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  7 місяців тому

      It is the Z-table (the standard normal table). You can find them online if you do a simple Google search.

  • @otanifederio4989
    @otanifederio4989 6 років тому +1

    where do u ge or how do u get m(6)most likely and b(14)pessimistic

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  6 років тому +6

      For academic purposes, they (a, m, b) will be provided for you. But practically, you know from records or experience on past projects.

  • @shizuchuan
    @shizuchuan 4 роки тому

    Hi, how did you get the values from optimistic to pessimistic? Thank you

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  4 роки тому +1

      Let's just say they are already given to you.

    • @markjoons
      @markjoons Рік тому

      How can we get it from the given first value

  • @kennethkayeramos2858
    @kennethkayeramos2858 Рік тому

    Hello, what if we want a 99.99% probability of completing the project on time, when we should begin?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому +1

      You can use your table or use =NORMSINV(0.9999) in Excel. This will return a Z score of approximately 3.72.

    • @kennethkayeramos2858
      @kennethkayeramos2858 Рік тому

      @@joshemman I'm confused sir, why dont we use the 3.69 and also the 3.70, 3.71, or either 3.73. They all have the same

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      @@kennethkayeramos2858 Are you using table or software?

    • @kennethkayeramos2858
      @kennethkayeramos2858 Рік тому

      @@joshemman table, sir.

  • @maddieisntreal8351
    @maddieisntreal8351 2 роки тому

    what should i do if the expected time is NOT an integer? thanks

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  2 роки тому

      Nothing differently. It just makes calculations more challenging.

  • @Sabrina-lo9vq
    @Sabrina-lo9vq 6 років тому

    thank u for saving me !!!

  • @jerremiealforque1312
    @jerremiealforque1312 25 днів тому

    Where did you get the 1.28 in 3:47?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  24 дні тому

      I used the Normal Distribution Table. You can also use Excel: =NORMSINV(0.9)

  • @rei-fg1kk
    @rei-fg1kk 3 роки тому +1

    Hi, how do you get the z score of 90%?

    • @rahults1064
      @rahults1064 2 роки тому

      in the table we need to check which value has .90 In table .8997 was close to .90 so we take z as 1.28

    • @rei-fg1kk
      @rei-fg1kk 2 роки тому

      @@rahults1064 thank you

  • @patrickbelasa5987
    @patrickbelasa5987 Рік тому

    nice!👍

  • @divyanshuraj1356
    @divyanshuraj1356 Рік тому

    How do we find the area for a certain value of z

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      See if this helps: ua-cam.com/video/p_KApjpyBHE/v-deo.html

  • @zenapsgas
    @zenapsgas 6 років тому

    There are different ways to calculating the variance. My book says variance = (t-a)/(b-t) / 7

  • @gloriasheen6336
    @gloriasheen6336 5 років тому

    why do you use standard deviation? when do you not use it?

    • @geraldobakhume3904
      @geraldobakhume3904 3 роки тому

      SD is used to calculate the probability. The Z formula.

  • @chandrashekharneupane2464
    @chandrashekharneupane2464 3 роки тому

    Thanks maan

  • @chriskerley1508
    @chriskerley1508 6 років тому

    Why is the normal distribution used?

  • @kotagyan3702
    @kotagyan3702 4 роки тому

    Most uncertain activities is which one????

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  4 роки тому

      The one with the largest variance (or range).

  • @frankdavidpascual9777
    @frankdavidpascual9777 5 років тому +1

    You save my job dude! Aahahah

  • @marianna3876
    @marianna3876 2 роки тому

    Sir, I'm a Vietnamese student. Can you explain to me why there is 0.8508? 2:46

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  2 роки тому

      You can use the z-table (1.0 under 0.04) as shown in 2:46. Or you can use Google Sheets =NORM.S.DIST(1.04).

    • @marianna3876
      @marianna3876 2 роки тому

      @@joshemman thank you. Appreciate your help ^_^

  • @aricleekirsten724
    @aricleekirsten724 2 роки тому

    How did you find the mean of 32?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  2 роки тому

      The mean is found by adding up the Expected Times for critical activities.

    • @aricleekirsten724
      @aricleekirsten724 2 роки тому

      @@joshemman Thank you sir!

  • @boddapaatideepak1624
    @boddapaatideepak1624 9 місяців тому

    Can anyone please say how to a,m and b from the forward and backward diagram

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  9 місяців тому

      a, m, and b must be given to you. You cannot find them from the nework diagram.

  • @olo1135
    @olo1135 Рік тому

    at 3:01 how did you find the .3632

    • @studytimewithjency
      @studytimewithjency 11 місяців тому

      www.math.arizona.edu/~rsims/ma464/standardnormaltable.pdf

  • @elangosenthil4894
    @elangosenthil4894 12 днів тому

    Where is that table available? 2:44

  • @yasserbaroudy5275
    @yasserbaroudy5275 Рік тому

    Where can I find the z chart?

  • @ammarelmazi8370
    @ammarelmazi8370 3 роки тому

    Is it always divided by 6 ?

  • @emilyveneranda6793
    @emilyveneranda6793 3 роки тому

    thanks like

  • @lesbournericketts6021
    @lesbournericketts6021 4 роки тому

    Any utech student here?

  • @nanzangusililo6844
    @nanzangusililo6844 Рік тому

    Still lost

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      Where are you heading for exactly?

  • @bogsespelekpek6542
    @bogsespelekpek6542 3 роки тому +1

    This is exactly what i am looking for! Great presentation! Keep making video to help others like me, who is trying to figure out what is missing on my book 🤣🤣🤣 youtube is really a great help to students! Thank you so much!

  • @loggiedude9188
    @loggiedude9188 Рік тому

    How did you get the mean of 32?

    • @joshemman
      @joshemman  Рік тому

      By adding up the expected time for critical activities.