8 watches that lost the most value since the market peak
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- Опубліковано 12 чер 2024
- WatchCharts is the world’s most powerful secondary watch market research platform. Dive into the data yourself at WatchCharts.com.
Which watches have lost the most value in relative terms since the secondary market peak in early 2022? We cover some of the biggest losses in the biggest names.
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0:00 Introduction
0:48 Audemars Piguet
3:15 Patek Philippe
6:04 Omega
7:12 Rolex
9:10 Market Trends - Навчання та стиль
So they dropped from insanely overpriced to just overpriced.
Key message, all going back to msrp. Flipping is almost over.
Watches are NOT investments.
Bro I went to a couple grey market watch dealers and it seems they are price fixing. They are buying watches super super super low but still asking very high premiums like 2022 premiums. Which makes no sense to me. I tried to sell my sub that I paid $11k for and got offered $8k but on the window they got it displayed for $11,500. Like makes no no sense
@@BobbyDazzler888 not all of them. You will never see a Daytona Panda at MSRP nor a Patek Nautilus or a Aquanaut but for other models even from these same brands that were overpriced are getting at retail or below.
@@afvro75next year watches will be like pre 2018. Nautilus will sell just double its price and everything else with slight premium over msrp. ASIAN Market is dead , middle east is ok because they are trading most of the time. Europe is done
Did people actually buy at these highs or was it just dealers punting at this level
Imagine spending quarter of a million dollars on a RO that’s now 80k 💀💀💀💀💀💀💀
Crayon eaters
The FOMOs get precisely the pain they created for themselves.
Good. They werent watch collectors.
Well, if you’re stupid enough to believe in “perceptual” value, expect to lose a lot of money. That’s just how that shit works.
Sheep stuff
Buying an overpriced watch from a flipper or grey market dealer is the worst decision you could make if the watch is still in production. The only reason watch prices have not fallen below retail is because grey market dealers overpaid for these watches and can’t afford to sell them for a loss. The watch market is dead with inventory being listed on multiple sites at the same time sitting around collecting dust. Nobody is buying anything at these over inflated prices. In fact, if the watch is still in production, the best move is to buy it from the manufacturer (Bucherer for Rolex) directly and wait for it. At least you will know you’re getting the watch at retail and it’s not falling below that yet. There are no more supply chain shortages so watch manufacturers can make plenty of watches.
These are transaction-based prices, so people are paying the prices shown. Undoubtedly, they're less than the average asking price. (The size of the gap is the most predictive indicator.)
As a broke boy and actual enthusiast who wants prices to crater, this is great news.
Honestly so much crap on the market now. 😂
I went AD for my SMP300 and Tudor bb41. I would be careful buying pre owned/used
Buy what you like is the key. If it increases/holds value then bonus
I didn't lose anything. I bought a Casio 😅
i have 4 of em... and now m gunna start collecting them... and seiko... value for money, dont hurt the pocket and casio will outlive me
So you lost 100%
Lol. If you wear it then ok
Better thee than me.
@@m1n1sw00sh Who knows? That man may save the amount to buy gold or NVDA at that time. Then multiple his money.
I lost my shirt but my grey dealer says I'll make it all back if I buy into his new hot line.....................Tulip bulbs!! What should I do????? 😂😂😂😂
Insure the tulips and wait 😂
Plant them in good soil away from direct sunlight?
😂
Get into that Tulipmania and become rich my friend.
go dutch with him
Happy I bought a Tissot it did not go up or down
Lol
As a broke guy I am waiting for royal oak replica price to crash from 350$ to 150$ so I can finally afford one used for 90$
Great information! What’s your take on the Rolex Hulk? Predictions?
Drop Drop Drop Dropping!!! TSGWMID
Definitely not yet the bottom, waiting till this Q3
Thanks for the info!!!
These are actually watch market values. If you are selling to a dealer take 25-30% off the above to cover their margins. So if you are selling some of these watches today having bought at peak; you will get back 25 cents to the dollar.
This report is so delightful!
Very interesting as always. Many thanks 🙏
I know people who teamed up to buy super expensive watches on secondary market and are now out of the money big time…
The Sprite is a failure in design, it's awkwardness hasn't faded.
It's for left handed people
Unless your left handed then it's fine
Never been a fan of the Aquanaut
Wait
Well ya it's awkward if you wear it on your left wrist like the person did in this video. If you're a left handed person and wear it on your right wrist AS IT WAS DESIGNED TO BE then no it's not awkward at all. But pretending to know about watches such as yourself and not knowing a simple fact as this that is awkward
Imaging paying over $150,000 for a product that took $2000 to produce.
Covid madness.
You obviously have no idea what your talking about
@@bdegrds except he's speaking truth. When a marketer has numbed you to spending an exorbitant amount of money especially on something that has been marked up heavily... they have won.
Think of it like this: Christopher Ward makes solid affordable watches... and as a company, they promised to ONLY SELL WATCHES FOR A MAXIMUM OF THREE TIMES THE VALUE OF MATERIALS. Think about that for a second. If Christopher Ward is only 3x the value of materials, what is Rolex at? What is AP and PP?
@@bdegrds sure, how much did you pay?
Could be less 😂
As the economy slows, the prices will drop further...
I’ve been into watches since the mid '90 and I'm also a WOSTEP graduate. The AP are (from a pure product perspective) $15k to $20k tops. Chopard does waaaay better stuff at a fraction of the price with their LUC line.
firstly to be clear (for some). when these watches have recently lost value. you mean they lost the grey market value. not retail.
grey market prices are unrealistic..
secondly. NO watch is worth more than it's retail price IMO.. when you buy at retail. everybody makes plenty of money. the Company. the Boutiques. the ADs and Suppliers. paying grey market price is utterly stupid. e result is what you see today !!. personally i will only buy from the Boutiques at retail. thanks for the update.
Was on a cruise ship last week, they had used Rolexes in the gift shop. They were asking $30k for a Batman GMT… yeah right.
They are sniffing ass for that pricr
I was too they had a 1981 26mm ladies date just diamond after market dial and bezel for $8,500 !!!!! Hahahhahaja
Remember when everyone was saying that watches were INVESTMENTS?
Out of curiosity, are these prices confirmed sales? Or the asking prices from the muppet boiler room secondary grey watch market dealers
You forgot to add “lollipop sucking”
Great content
in short... The bigger it jumped the bigger it fell lol. What would have been more interesting is the models that jumped like crazy and maintained their value the most after the correction. I wonder how many sad souls bought at the peak and are now turned off of watch buying seeing their losses.
That Daytona model is discontinued, and many people mention that they like it more than the new one for several reasons, including the case and the dial. Do you think it has already reached its lowest point?
In my opinion 126500ln especially with black dial is a better watch. I think 116500ln will continue to drop
@@cookingwithwatches I have both and the old 116500 panda is much better.
No
@@robertwithers3853 yes
11,000 Daytona’s listed for sale on chrono24. There are tons of them.
A hyped watch for no reason at all.
How can you buy the snoopy at retail. I want it for me not to flip
I was going to have The Timepiece Gentleman sell my AP on consignment but he doesn't seem to be around anymore.
😂😂😂
Great video but opusntime watches has been saying this for the last two years. The watch market is dead in a backyard pool and floating face down 🏊
Haha, these were his exact words, over and over...
Faster than Bill Clintons pants in an Arkansas farm house
2025 prediction. 99% of used Rolex models will be below retail.
Wow good time for middle class to buy
Love the video and info…but I think if you shift the “Market Price 2 years ago” to the left a bit, it won’t look like it’s aligned w the depreciation graph/timeline.
Few years ago, I recall stating to myself, “so I need to save 17k for an AP. Got half that, then they went up! Yea, I’m good.
go to school :
In business and economics, "cost," "price," and "value" each refer to distinct concepts:
1. **Cost**: This term refers to the amount of money that a company spends to produce a good or provide a service. Costs can include materials, labor, overhead, and any other expenses directly related to the production process.
2. **Price**: This is the amount of money that consumers are charged for a product or service. It's what the buyer pays to acquire the item or service. Price is determined by a variety of factors including the cost of production, market demand, competition, and the strategy of the seller.
3. **Value**: Value refers to the utility, importance, or benefit that a product or service provides to the user. It is a subjective assessment and can vary widely among different consumers based on their personal preferences, needs, and the degree to which the product meets these needs. Value is often perceived as how much a product is worth to the consumer in terms of satisfaction and utility, rather than in terms of cost to produce or price to purchase.
I remember seeing an Aquanaut in the AD window in 2016 and I had an Aquanaut before they were sought after. It’s not a great watch and quite a few people told me it was a poor man’s Nautilus.
Yes! The aquanaut 1st came out as a "poor" ppl's patek I tried on 1 at Shreve for 6500usd then..that was the 1st generation quartz aquanaut...a bit smaller too. This was way earlier than 2016.
One thing important to point out is that the prices in march/april 2022 were ridiculously highly overpriced due to the covid pandemic, ppp loans, scarcity of watches and so on so it was the "perfect storm" for that crazy overinflated increase in prices. Now we are coming back more to reality and even so many of these watches are still quite overpriced compared to prepandemic prices in years prior. Many of these watches are still going for twice or three times their reatil value (which is crazy) but yes it's defenitely more attractive to buy now than two years ago, however watches are still coming down so we'll see what happens, say at the end of 2024.
I sold all but my AP bucherer in 22’ icluding my favourite watch a Patek bimetal nautilus ..sold privately for £110k honestly the best watch I’ve ever owned but the prices were crazy then…I’m not buying any watches until say I can buy back a Patek say the same bimetal Patek for 50k ..I originally bought mine for 38k.
When you consider that an AP RO was 7500€ only 12 years ago, this is insane.
Why are they losing value?
A picture of your grandfather can have high sentimental value to you despite having no cost and no set price. This value is deeply personal and isn't measured financially but by the emotional connection and memories it represents.
you got the snoopy spot on. the watch is no long on my mind and i have move on.
AP losing 69% of its value! (nice)
grey market greed killed the watch market 😂😂😂
It was an artificial market like nft’s.
So many suckers out there
The authorized dealers greed killed the market. They are the ones that feed the secondary market and even sell directly via back door means.
The grey market just sells watches based on supply and demand.
M
The market was not artificial. What are you talking about? It’s a matter of supply & demand. The demand was high. The supply was extremely low, especially with specialty watches. They don’t make that many specialty watches. Right now you can go into a Rolex A.D. and ask for a watch. Good luck! They have zero watches for the public.
@@Jas-1000 totally untrue.
Tons of stock available in Singapore.
If you disagree, I’m willing to take a side bet with you. I’ll give you me email contacts details publicly and you do the same.
You say no Rolex models available at the ADs. I say otherwise.
@@marcn8750 yeah you just said the key word SINGAPORE. Well here in America, there’s zero watches at the AD. Don’t believe me walked. Into any dealer here in San Diego, Los Angeles, New York, Miami. ZERO watches!
So how much for AP year 2000 model 14790ST today?
Great info!
I really enjoyed the term "Correction" being thrown around as I watched various UA-cam videos from people who would cover high end luxury watches. Looking at the losses I wouldn't be surprised if the rise and fall ties closely in with the boom and bust of the Crypto markets over the same period of time.
Bingo. Just people trying to hide money to buy a lot of bling.
No not related. Crypto is a modern ponzi scheme, Horology is an artform few centuries old
wait ... these guys will sell on discount in a year or 2 ..
Market price is more than MSRP that’s NUT.
The price of a second-hand item and its market value are two different concepts, often confused in transactions, especially by those who are stupid ,not well-informed or lack understanding basic economic principles:
1. **Second-hand Price**: This is the actual price at which a used item is sold. It can vary widely based on factors such as the condition of the item, the demand for it in the used market, and how urgently the seller wants to sell. For example, an individual might sell a used car at a lower price if they need a quick sale due to moving abroad.
2. **Market Value**: Market value refers to the estimated amount that a property or item would fetch in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, where the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently, and without compulsion. Market value is more theoretical and is often used as a benchmark in financial contexts. It considers a wider range of factors than just the actual sale price of one specific item, including overall demand for the item, its typical condition when sold second-hand, and broader economic conditions.
Therefore, the price for which a second-hand item is sold might not necessarily reflect its market value. The sale price could be lower or higher than the market value depending on individual circumstances surrounding that particular transaction. This confusion can lead to misconceptions where people might assume that the price they pay or receive for a used item should directly reflect its market value, which is not necessarily the case. This misunderstanding is particularly prevalent among those who may not be educated in economic principles or stupid people’s mistakenly oversimplify complex
Still double from retail
These watches have not lost VALUE……. They’ve lost hype. They’re now trading at a more realistic price….. I have no sympathy for anyone burnt…. This is what happens when you buy to sell rather than buy what you want…..and then wear and enjoy it!!!!
China had this huge boom due to foreign investments in the last 30 years. Now that FDI goes out of China and into other emerging markets, the luxury market is adjusting down to what it should be.
AP LP used to have 30% margins for AD's - so go figure what the watch is worth....😁
In summary, during and just after Covid people with a lot of money were bored and began using watches as investment mechanisms. People started paying over the odds and now they are starting to level out.
The same individuals that paid 30k over MSRP on vehicles two years ago .
1 month later, the 16202st is now $71k - another 10k drop in a month!
When Rolex production reach the 1,8-2,0 million a year in 2028 secondary rolex prices will drop to 50% below retail for regular catalogue pieces
Will that include Rolex’s CPO watches?
@@eyeheartsushi2212 hopefully
Wait is wise
Very informative...and predictable. Given the state of the economy...I predict another 40-50% drop in popular model prices before one of two things happen. One, the market stabilizes and turns around...or two...world war and you'll be lucky if your Daytona buys you a loaf of bread.
I've been warning about this on other watch channels, but they were in denial and maybe still in denial, but yes I predict there are some large watch makers that actually may go bust in the next couple of years.
Whatever it was before covid is exactly where its going. Allow it to trickle through the artificial market
@@BobbyDazzler888 ...it's going well below pre-covid levels. It's going to take a decade to clear out all the accumulated debt.
Royal oak chrono can be found much lower than 60k so profit is not so evidnet
They haven’t lost x % of their value unless it falls below list.
Grey Mkt Dealers trading up prices between themselves....don't trust them ever.
Still didnt understand. If the same watch is still under production, why would you buy a second hand one at much higher price? May be the only answer is that watch makers will never sell you the new one even under production and you will have to buy a second hand if you like the watch so much. That;s pure market manipulation.
You didn't mention my Pagani Design? 😂🤣🤪😂🤣🤪
Great video and info. Hope the hoarders, back door buyers of ADs and flippers are happy. Hahahhahaha...
This is a drop from a peak of temporary insanity. To normal buyers (not speculators) this is irrelevant.
Frightening how fellow humans manage the so called " money investment " and it's not only watches that suffers from that craziness, investment is becoming a big ponzi scheme.
Never pay above retail for a watch that's still in production - that's basic common sense, and those who lack it are the ones taking a beating.
What kind of idiot would pay over 250k for a watch retails 33k
It just takes one idiot, and voila: that's the "market price".
What insanity! That $261k could have bought a nice home in many parts of the world.
Looks like the trends are making a several month bottom. Reasonable now
Reasonable is 20% off msrp.
@@BobbyDazzler888 hahahaha you will be wearing seiko still then I’m afraid
😅😅😅 Finally, market correction
The way to make a price development chart is to add a data point whenever there’s a confirmed sale, plotting price and the date of the sale. When you have added all the data points you connect the dots which then forms the graph. Hence, each fluctuation in a graph indicates a data point /sale of a watch.
For some of the limited watches there is no possible way that there were as many sales as indicated in the graphs. I conclude that many (perhaps all) of the graphs look manipulated and false.
Who, apart from the late Charles Schultz, would spend more than $20 on a Snoopy watch, with the huge choice of classy Omegas available? Presumably for flipping only.
They choose to dump them and take a loss rather than maintaining them. I asked how much would it cost me to maintain a $15K Rolex. The answer was $3K every 5-7 years.
Not true, all watch brands will tell u 5-7 years but the ave for time only watches is around 650usd...for Chronos ave is 850usd...for the haute horology pieces they're higher due to the complications. But 5-7 yrs for Rolex and Omega doesn't hold true. These pieces just keep going. Don't fix it if it ain't broke.
For other more refined movements they do require more frequent servicing and the 5yr ave is accurate...
by Casio g shok
I would absolutely buy a Rolex Daytona at retail. 😊
Dropping like BClintons pants 👖 in the White House in 1994. 😱😱😱
من فضلك عندي ساعة pierpont ميكانيكية نسائية قديمة وهي بحالة جيدة وعندي ساعة Sndoz قديمة رجالية خدش بسيط بالميناء ولكنها تعمل بشكل جيد وساعة sirgint تعمل بشكل جيد اريد بيعهم وساعة ام صليب قديمة يلزمها اصلاح بسيط وايضا اريد بيعها
You have exactly the watches I'm looking for . I'm prepared to pay you up to 10,000 Fucyas .
المعذرة ولكن هذا السعر رخيص جدا
You also need to mention watches that’s gone up in value on the secondary market over the same period like some A Lange & Sohne watches
We will be doing a follow-up video where we talk about the best performers in the last two years - stay tuned!
70k for an aquanaut 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Snoopy is no longer in production, not that it matters now but it will at some point.
But then they’ll have another Snoopy.
The prices of two years ago are unrealistically high, historically speaking.
So using that as a benchmark price to assess the depreciation today is a bit of sensationalism.
Secondly, for the non-complication models to have dropped so little when their chronographs have dropped so much just means that their respective price gaps are not realistic - the non-complication models will have to fall further in price (a likely scenario IMO) and in fact even the chronographs (e.g. PP's annual calendar chronograph) will have at least another 10-15% depreciation; ditto those of AP.
I reckon the Omega Speedmaster Snoopy could have as much as another 40% to fall.
Meantime, Omega's perrenial rival, Rolex, have always been over-valued relative to Omega. Fans would always claim it deserves its premium over its Omega equivalent. But even if that were the case, its premium over Omega has always been too big so expect Rolexes to fall further across the board.
Surprisingly, the Rolex Daytona's current price is the least over-priced compared to the historical evolution of its price. I expect that the Daytona will have little room for a price fall at its current price.
To put all of the above in perspective, with all these recent depreciation of various models across various brands, the end result is less price dispersion across the premium/high-end watch universe. This is as it should be as the last few years have seen the top-end models of premium watches running ahead of themselves. So some collapse in price dispersion is just what the doctor ordered.
I think you mix "market value" with what some fools where paying in the past. call it former flipper hope......
Did speculation drive prices during the pandemic? I have bought several watches over the last 6-8 months, finding good value in the secondary market. I use another website to track my collection which is showing mixed results, but up overall. My humble opinion is that the 2022 year was a one off.
Never ever buy above retail. It’s a mugs game. Besides, wouldn’t you rather a brand new watch from retailer than to have to deal with the angst of whether there are any issues with your used watch? I get taking the “risk” when you’re buying on the secondary market and paying way below retail - no issue there - but paying above retail? Nah, not for me
Supply and demand. They can afford the loss.
If u opt for ROO 3126 enhancement, AP will reduce 59jewel to 54jewel, the watch gets lighter, the min hand jump everytime u adjust the time, within 3yrs, ur time jus stop movement.....
As someone with some watches, I hope they fall to the point of bringing back an enjoyable honest retail experience.
Hopefully they lose another 50%. They are all great watches but I can’t justify paying that much.
Preowned watch above market value when you can get one from an authorized dealer for cheaper anybody that goes in here and buy something used on a gray market or secondary market of Frio and they pay over retail. They are a dummy that would be like going to a used car dealership And finding a Chevrolet damn Ford what flavor car is yeah I know the Chevy dealership down the road there sell that car for $70,000 but yeah I’m gonna give you $190,000 for that car makes no sense to me. I have a white Daytona, I bought it and 2000. I paid under retail for it. I have the dealer at an authorized dealer because he had his case about nine months to buy it. I like it I bought it. I still wear it. I won’t sell it.
Wait until the coming depression I’m betting you most of these watches will be traded for a couple of gold coins
Way lower prices
10 Dollar watch tells the same time as a 1 million Dollar watch 😂
Don’t wanna work? Rather try speculating in watches? Excellent idea!
Watches as an investment is dead
Time is free, why do you need a $50,000 watch?
It’s not dropping in value when the manufacturer has priced an item at $37k. Once it is priced below msrp then talk about it losing its value properly.
Buy a Corum bubble it's gone up