Why is it bad? It's very good news for true collectors like us. We get rid of flippers and shady second hand dealers. It's a win, win from my perspective.
I agree. It tells manufacturers and salesmen that they have to earn our money, not vice versa. This means more innovation, better pricing, more availability. All good things. The Swiss are extremely rich, touching grass and experiencing the real world may do the industry and its players a world of good.
Not sure if i got the same message from the vid. For some models this was always true even with rolex. Doesn't mean that the company is not highly profitable. Rolex is maybe the marketing star on the entire planet. They are the epitome of what people consider ,rich' ,lurxury'. A lot of that is build around the waitlists and difficulties to get one. As long as the company makes huge profit they wouldn't sell you a panda daytona even if they had 100000 of them unsold
@@el_manu_el_actually, quite the opposite, a hungry industry innovates and pushes boundaries because manufacturers have sometime to prove. They need to stand out and sell, sell, sell. They got comfortable and cocky during the boom. Treating customers poorly, same boring releases with minor changes, you know the story. Now, manufactures and watch salesmen have no choice but to show some respect to their customers.
The industry is not eager to innovate. Free AI comes up with true beauty that's so easy to achieve - while they choose white gold or platinum, you kidding?.. While their websites' ENTIRE SECTIONS are BUGGED into TOTAL DYSFUNCTIONALITY
Art used to there for enjoyment, then it became an investment. A house, a place to live, now an investment. A car a means of transport, now an investment. A watch an instrument to tell the time, now an investment. Sadly, society is underinvesting in getting itself smarter. Buy the watch you like, enjoy it and if you or your heirs make money off it, consider it a gift from above.
It's a side effect of income inequality. It's the same reason people are becoming musicians, and Instagram influencers, everyone wants a get rich quick scheme because get rich slow schemes don't work anymore. If you work your ass off your whole life now, you'll still die in an apartment you're sharing with three people
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
Considering what's an investment. Like, look up Neil Patel's article about his luxurious watches. A huge problem now is these watch companies' management. 95% have their WEBSITES SO BUGGED, their contact forms are COMPLETELY DYSFUNCTIONAL. Is that anywhere near luxury!?
@@GEMSofGOD_com my prior comment seems to get auto-deleted but forward predicting what watches *might* increase or stay over retail value is a fools game. especially if you compare to traditional asset classes.
Me too. I'm laughing. I dumped my Breitling, Omega, Tag and some others during the hype. I'm loving my share investments, and cheap but fun shitters like Orient Kamasu, and some microbrand stunners.
Those who survived the quartz crisis wont survive the smartwatch, especially because it combines with the mistreat and they disappointment of the mid-class watch lover and collector
The data is nice but one shouldn't mix it up with these brands being not highly profitable. If one is thinking that we are heading towards times when you could enter an AD and take a panda daytona with you or that he calls you within 3 month i only could say good luck. Another point is the data not necessarily showing the difference in between models, there were always some rolex models you could buy at list price without waiting time. Situations are so different for a 1908 compared to a sub
Well, let's remember that this is the normal. We just went through abnormal years. All watches should dive from retail because there are loads of them and their actual value is about 1/3 of retail.
All watches are worth a fraction of what they sell for. It costs rolex less than 500 usd to make a submariner, they use less than 2000 usd worth of gold in an all gold watch.
@@dudewithcomedy1 there is a really interesting video on YT that shows a day date 40 has 133.7 grams of gold in it. That’s accounting already for it being 18k gold. In today’s market that is just under $10k in gold. There is more than you think in the current gold market, it’s surprising. I still agree with what you’re saying overall btw. However the gold watches are actually more worth their price than the steel ones where the cost of the steel is likely a few bucks and the gold is harder to machine and smelt etc too as they make their own. Ironic that the steel ones sell for almost the price of gold ones in some cases on the aftermarket.
exactly this was the norm before 2019 happened, i've talked to ADs and they all mention that retail prices of watches are always at the very least 2.5x the production cost
Exactly. I buy watches to commemorate accomplishments and will cherish them for as long as I live. Sucks that scumbag flippers make it almost impossible to purchase models I've always wanted (for retail and not 3x the price).
I remember when I bought my first luxury watch. I bought a Breitling Avenger Chronometer. Someone told me “Breitling doesn’t hold value in the secondary market.” My response was “I didn’t buy it to sell it. I bought it wearing.” I still wear it. Great video, per usual.
i love breitling , bought a chronomat some years ago from usa for £2k and wore and owned for about 9 years and sold for £3k , i have since bought super ocean 46mm which with steel strap retail £4500 , managed to buy a 6 month old as new with both steel and rubber stap + first owner extended warranty 5 years , £2800 , don't think i will loose money and maybe in time it may make ... i bought to wear though ( for best ) as have oris aquis , longines hydroconquest , bulova marine star ...........
That "doesn't hold value in the secondary market" statement is indicative of the investment mindset. It's everywhere (people buying/flipping luxury clothing like Prada and Gucci or Chanel and Louis Vuitton handbags). Crazy! 🙄
I really just want to buy a nice watch for my husband to pass on to our son someday. Hopefully I can buy a watch now at nothing over retail and without given the discriminatory glance from idiot salesman.
I tend to buy my watches used. My Omegas and Tudors were all purchased second hand. I bought watches that were months old by less than retail. The drop for Omega is less than for Tudor, which is indeed enormous. My anecdotes match your data perfectly. Needless to say, this is another great video. Keep up the good work.
Same here. I would say 90% of my luxury watches are all pre owned. I always say, if you’ve a reputable watch shop that does authentication, then let someone take the depreciation hit for you
Many years ago I picked up a navitimer b01 for ~60% of RRP... 2 months old... still had some factory seals on it. There's no way you can justify buying new in scenarios like that...
I'm a collector of Breitling watches. I buy them with disposable income and I have never sold a watch. I wear one everyday and it always makes me happy. When I die I will leave my collection to my two sons. This is what watch collecting is all about. I don't care about hype, resale value and investment.
It’s not just the high end. Volumes are significantly down in the under 2k, under 1k, price segments. Justifying *another* watch purchase when you’ve got alot of them already gathering dust gets harder and harder when other expenditure takes priority.
I used this downturn to my advantage and picked up a mint BB58 blue (3 years ago it was a hype watch) for 45% off retail. For $2500 it’s one heck of a value and I love the watch. This is the huge advantage for collectors to the downturn.
Similar case here. I bought a preown Tudor bb DK as I’ve been eyeing it for awhile now, at around SGD2.6k. Retail I check was around sgd 6-7k 😆 Of course some minor scuffs to bracelet is unavoidable, but heck I’m putting it on a rubber strap, so I could care less
I don't have that kind of money, i could not afford anything near that. many watch prices remind me of the Invicta sale on QVC. Over price the value, then discount it heavy to get people excited.
I have never bought a watch as an investment and I have a selection of the three brands you mentioned. But all were purchased for the memories they were associated with or, generated thru the buying experience. Whether these memories are for me, my two daughters and more importantly my three grand children. Who I hope will have that quiet smile and think of me as they tell the time many years from.
Thank you for all of your great independent reviews/analysis. Great information and not a sellout like most watch youtube channels. You do not have your own store or watchbrand. You do not get free watches for reviews. Just great videos from a true enthousiast. Keep up the good work! Hope your channel will continue to grow!
I was an old-school values investigative newspaper journalist 30 years, and this is absolute professional A1 explanatory journalism. Another fantastic piece. Thanks 🙏
I have a Black Bay GMT I bought a few years ago and I love it. Never bought it as an investment and seems a little silly to buy watches hoping you make money on them. I wear mine everyday so it’s probably lost some value because of wear, but that’s why you buy them.
What would really interest me is if we are finally starting to see an overall watch market decline ushered in by smart watches that was just obfuscated by the pandemic. It's become rare to see traditional watches now compared to none or Apple Watches.
I think watches were or still are a sort of counter culture to the smart watch, something people bought to express to others that they don't follow trends, something much more unique than the standard solid black chunk of glass, ironically leading to a trend of wearing traditional watches, especially mechanical watches.
Smart watches are a totally different product. They are functional and quite useful. By contrast, luxury mechanical watches are jewelry that happen to tell time.
@@ttjoseph1 Right, right - they share nothing but the name. Even if they were ‘totally different’ the simple fact remains that people largely are only occupying one wrist so they vie for the same physical space.
It's the opposite. Before smart watches there was a giant constituency using their phones to tell the time. In other words, they had NO timekeeping device on their wrists. I'd argue that smartwatches saved mechanical watches. It is normalizing wearing watches again. For some number of people, that will translate to high end mechanical timepieces.
You truly have the best watch channel, informative, unbiased and fair. It's interesting you bring up Adrian Barker, for me when he's not shilling his overpriced Nato Straps he's on a jolly paid for by a watch brand and then gives us his "unbiased opinion"
@@WestCoastAce27 Couldn't agree more. He was just about ok pre- about effing time, after then I realised he's mostly just a shill, and when he's not flogging overpriced Nato straps, he's constantly taking photographs of Rolexes being splashed with water and talking nonsense.
I feel like luxury watches social media is trending towards perfume social media where it will be nearly impossible to get an unbiased option because companys send the stuff to the big channels and even when not paid the influencers have a huuuuge interest to have a good relationship to these brands - because you want another sended perfume/watch to make more content and you want a good representation of the brand to maybe get the panda daytona finally for list price. I mean e.g i love tudor as well but they became so overhyped and you hardly find any sort of critizism whatsoever. Chunky gmt etc and they gone up in price big time
i’d really hate to think that some of those disgusting speculator flipper style people are stuck with things they can’t sell. It would be absolutely terrible if brands like IWC started suffering after their profiteering . I really do hope that those people in the AD who looked down there nose at folk like me when I went to ask about a datejust are ok .
Thank you for the excellent news for genuine watch enthusiasts. I have yet to see any price reductions appearing at my local ADs though. Hopefully the 2nd hand market will totally collapse shortly.
It won't translate as price reductions initially it will be availablity in previously empty cabinets. I see brands like JLC really struggling unless you start to see discounts. Their recent price increases were insane.
Rolex don’t sell to customers, they sell to AD’s and AD’s sell to customers. Rolex are still selling as many watches as they always do (over 1million a year), it’s the AD’s that are struggling
Investing in watches is silly. Buy what you like because you like it and the money is disposable. If that's a casio great. If thats a platinum tourbillion good for you.
Great video as always. Investing in watches was a silly idea born out of exceptional circumstances. Now we are having a reality check. I am enjoying a lot my Maurice Lacroix Aikon . A summer watch , elegant , versatile and very affordable, particularly in the second hand market. Cheers.
Great video Mike. I had a give and take on a popular watch blog about the Morgan Stanley report (specifically Tudor). It’s amazing to me how people dismiss credible data and specifically Tudors hype slowdown. Data will set you free!
I get that supply and demand will drive the price. What really bothers me is that some dealers won't sell you a watch even if they have it because you weren't the right person for that watch.
Extraordinary analysis.. thanks mate! And yes, I love my Tudor FXD as well .. but my JLC Reverso Tribute Monoface Burgundy small seconds I like a little more. It's not as practical obviously but the design is stunning, it's dead accurate and I'm surprised by myself not being a dress watch guy how much I enjoy this rather subtle and small and comfy watch on my wrist
Agree. Which is why judging Tudor by the secondary market is nonsense. They are not a watch that command more than rrp on the secondary market. That doesn’t mean the brand is struggling. Next year we will see how Tudor have done and it think they will have increased sales.
The reality is with price increases you aren't losing that much. A Tudor BB pro sells on eBay for about £2k. If 3 years old you bought it at £2670 not current retail. I recently got a GMT 2 years old for my Dad £2k. Losing this kind of money between new retail and a used piece is vastly normal, rather than a crisis. Tudor needs to know it's place. Cool brushed finish tool watches. The jubilee on the new black bay is a mess. They have been coasting for the last 5 plus years doing dial variants and black bay in different sizes. Remember all the bonkers vintage chronos at launch. So of course people are buying secondary if there is very little new in the AD, why wouldn't you?
This is great news…anyone that buys watches as an investment isn’t a lover of watches. Genuine watch lovers moved to other less known brands while the whole instagram, the flippers push prices up. Great analysis.
So basically the super rich get to wear super exclusive desirable pieces basically for free(gray market). Which makes the grail watch for us average plebs as impossible to get as Unobtainium. Great video. Cheers☮️
Yes. That coupled with - at least for the most part by Rolex ADs - selling to ‘longtime customers’, not even trying to grow their base. Pretty arrogant to think it will last forever - selling ~5% to new people seems like a no brainer. But they show no inclination to do that or kill/slow flipping by buying back grey watches, tracing them back to the worst offenders.
Fabulous. Best news I have heard all day. Consumer goods nearly always depreciate as soon as they are purchased. Cars, computers, clothes, everything. It’s only because of ‘influencers’, flippers and grey market dealers that some goods (certain watches, Berkin bags, etc) saw massive increases. I have never, ever paid more than new retail price for anything and never will. I never expect any consumer goods buy to increase in value and never regard them to be investments.
Very interesting as always! Thanks! I wear my boring-not-so-hype Tudor BB41 monochrome on jubilee, bought on retail price (but I don't care about its resale value as I intend to enjoy it a lot!)
My two watches that bring me joy are my 1998 IWC Flieger Chronograph and my 1954 gold Pie Pan Constellation. We watched similar price dynamics happen in the high end bicycle market and the guitar market. The covid boom brought about the same story of demand increases during covid, followed by brands ordering parts, followed by consumers losing interest when the lockdowns ended and people had their fill of these things.
I own a few Tudors, Omegas, and Rolexes. I want a Patek and an AP. I really want a couple of LF's and RD's but NONE of it is for investments. It is for my enjoyment, and to leave to my children when I'm gone to remember me and to do with them what they want. Fascinating video, confirming my thoughts about watch investment in general. Bubbles come in all variations.
Same here, instead with CASIOs and Baltanys , lol. If someone wants to gift me a rolex, cool, but I have much better uses for that money than an overpriced watch
I appreciate your honest insight into the world of watches! Your presentation is very matter of fact and to the point. Great knowledge delivered in a no-nonsence way. Nicely done!
There were articles in the local (Swiss) newspapers a few weeks ago. Tudor, Rolex and others, suppliers, etc. have and are firing temps and contracted. Strangely this week-end, the Rolex store in Geneva had a long queue of tourists which is strange because non-locals will not get anything there...
With the exceptions of 2-3 watches, I have always tried to buy Omega, Grand Seiko, and Tudor used or new with discount of 10-15%. At the moment, discounts from many brand ADs (with a buying history) is pretty good and buying used, esp. from Japan (think Omega and GS), is quite good in terms of pricing and room to negotiate.
It happens that I just submitted adjusted values to my insurance for my watches this morning ... Can confirm that values have taken a nose dive ... which means lower premiums for watches that I never intend to sell anyhow!
The watch market is on a long bumpy road so buckle up! Word on the street is that Patek Philippe are making a much larger percentage of Nautilus and Aquanauts-they know these will sell even in a bad watch market. I like graphs 📊 as well Mike😎!
Many models from Patek, AP, and Rolex still can’t be bought by just walking into an AD. Patek and Rolex are still making additional production facilities to keep up with demand. Maybe it’s not as much as two years ago, but it’s definitely still there. The watch market has been down 25% the last two years but is still up by 30% if we look at the past 5 years.
Agree. I live in a huge US city; on the list for a non-hype Rolex at 3 ADs for over a year. No call. Near new are still commanding a 20-25% premium. Ridiculous.
Every year we get a more millionaires globally. There's no shortage of customers overall for products that are desirable. These brands in the high to ultra high end will be fine 😀
We seem to be going into the microbrand era, where purchasing will be more value driven and the stories behind the watches and brands will be more approachable and transparent. I also think high quality quartz will make a resurgence as many people have gotten bitten by the bug in recent years that rushed into the hobby and are just settling in to what they signed up for.
I agree with the first sentence. Not so much with quartz resurgence :) For quartz I choose g-shock. Simple, cheap, reliable. For mechanical I go with microbrands. Better value for money, better finish and materials.
Congrats. It’s the Sub for those who aren’t longtime Rolex customers and refuse to pay above retail for a mass produced watch. I have the Pelagos 39 which fills that role in my collection.
Great vid. While I take the source data (watch charts) with a grain of salt, as they trend 5-15% higher than actual selling prices on forums and C24, directionally your analysis is spot on.
True - C24 in my experience has a lot of "list prices" which are totally bananas. I personally regard them as a starting point for a negotiation, especially with dealers that just have a stock photo of the watch there. 😃
Your insights and analyses are excellent and very much appreciated, Mike. I love your style, your confidence and your information. Thank you very much for all the work and thought you put into your videos, particularly your preparation.
Most mechanical devices (guns, watches) are relatively poor investments. 1) They don't perform as well as most financial "devices"such as stock or precious metals. Also, when I buy a quality gun or watch I tend to have a psychological attachment to them and that makes them more difficult to trade.
Guns and watches caught my attention - that’s my hobby money pit. I’ve found the trick is to keep both collections at three - buy smart, buy practically - and if you just have to have something, force yourself to part with one and see just how much you REALLY want the new and shiny. Pragmatism forces a stronger bond with what you already have.
This is an interesting comment. Good investing requires zero emotional attachment. Perhaps that is why some people are not as successful with guns and watches. You noted as much in your remark. Fellow gun and watch collector here, cheers.
@@Brownimusprime I'm there with you and add in guitars. I only have about 2 in each category that are semi high priced. In watches especially, the $500-$600 range is my sweet spot.
Mike gone full on number-beast-mode with this video! Thanks for all hard work, especially with all the interpretation. This must have been a tedious video to prepare.
On occassion I enjoy using excel, so I didn't find it as mind numbing as you would think. But it's a very different kind of vid production wise - yes 😉😂😂
Luxury watch UA-camrs had the lazy option of hyping 'value retention.' It's no longer factual; also known as a Lie. Overdue is a shift to the less sexy, more intelligent discussion of the 'value play.' Pre-owned Panerai, IWC, or even Lange. Fabulous video as always.
It's a half truth - Like I say in the video. It's likely the brand that will lose least value of most watch brands. Some may appreciate and even keep up with inflation and thereby not lose money. But it's a small minority of rolexes that meaningfully appreciate 😀
I agree - a further example is the Rolex SD4K. Wasn’t liked, founded as boring at its time, sold for low prices and so only produced for less than 3 years… that was a good investment that time looking at the prices today.
Thanks for highlighting the valuation variations between a brand's "halo" and "non-halo" watches. Porsche 911s have the same market value phenomenon. GT models (halo cars) have big dealer markups and higher secondary market prices. A purchaser of a new base 911 is lucky to experience 4% to 6% depreciation in a year. It's all about the hype.
Another great video Mike. Very interesting analysis, thanks so much for putting in the time and effort. In answer to your question my green faced IWC MK XX makes me very happy evey time I put it on.
Love this episode. Really interesting data. I have to say though, the watch in my collection I most enjoy is my Tudor BB58 blue. I picked it up to commemorate a promotion and I adore it. Sometimes “boring” is exactly the right choice for you.
Buying used is the way to go and I must say - buying what you can afford. I have a feeling lots of people are confusing being able to buy a watch with actually being able to afford it. They are not the same. A budget for watches should in my opinion be set only after personal/household finances are properly taken care of.
My first semi luxury watch was bought after I had fully paid off my mortgages. There is no way I could enjoy a frivolous spend on a watch while I was paying interest on a mortgage. Seems crazy to me.
I think TAG might give Tudor a run for its money. If they continue with the Glass Box series and develop Heuer as an independent brand within the group, the sky is the limit imho. Great vid Mike! Thanks
I don’t share @pler1978’s extreme view - but they are (and will always be) shunned by many in our watch hobby due to their Quartz and smart watch offerings.
Tag Heuer has made great strides the last few years. Unlike many brands they have Horological history and true design history. Not HOMAGE watches like ….. Some mistakes along the way. New team assembled heading TH knows what they are doing. People need to really tale a look.
Glad to see this happening for those of us who refuse to overpay. Sorry for those who overpaid. As for Tudor, tried to like them because of the hype. Just every time i tried one on all i could see was an homage. Kinda a boring watch. Good price point, but they are a pass for me.
Very nicely done, mate. Another point to note is the cost to sell a watch (currently 6% on Chrono24) and, for more expensive pieces, insurance. The former isn't so much of a factor when holding a stock (fees are normally fractions of a percent) and the latter not at all. I feel Oisín O Malley could benefit from seeing this.. 😅
It is genuinely disturbing watching the UA-cam videos of high-flying gray market watch flippers from two plus years ago and how they hyped up their product. The comments section of those videos are even more telling of where the market was at. Thank you for another enlightening video.
👍 Sad commentary on society. They were treated like stars. All they were doing was inserting themselves as middlemen for products that needed no help selling. And driving up prices.
The thing with Tudor is that they are readily available once released. That plays a large part into why their watches have that dip. There is none of that fake “low supply” game many other brands try to play.
Amazing content as always. Would love to see the same sort of video discussing vintage pieces across these brands - if watch charts have those insights
Would love to hear about AP and JLC. I understand they’re on the same trajectory. I wonder how JKC’s massive price increase after the boom will double hurt them…
I am pretty sure JLC is having a hard time at the moment. A tribue moon goes for half retail at the moment. Most Reversos do, except maybe for the new chrono reverso 😀
yep what you could gather from watch charts pretty much matches what one would expectt, doesn't it? I mean who expects a Tudor do trade above retail when it's a pretty much readily available brand...also, Patek always had those hyped outliers in a otherwise solid performing to meh collection that's why those are considered hype:D
Not all of my audience has the insight you do - A lot of people assuming anything Patek and anything Rolex is going to be popular. And some even assign that logic to Tudor too - because, they're "rolex mini" 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch I see where you're coming from, and definitely don't have more insight than your average viewer I think (since you are not a superficial clickbait channel, but a deeper-digger one) ;) maybe I phrased too harshly:)
18:15 Actually, it is the difference between investing (buying to generate a cash flow) and speculating (buying at a low price expecting to resale later at a larger price).
Love your watch videos based on facts. No bs. No spin. No vested interests or agendas. So many so called influencers talking up certain brands because they have so much money tied up in pieces.Great video. Thank you!
I'd rather say it's about time! Rolex is the most overpriced brand ever, so the manufactorer has been earning BIG money for decades only because the watches are tagged Rolex.
You should buy what you want to own, not what you want to flip. I want a Sea-Dweller 116600 because to me it's the best dive watch ever made. I know Sea-Dwellers are a horrible investment, but that's not what I want it for.
Excellent video my friend. My favorite watch channel by a country mile. Insightful. Entertaining. Learn something new in every video. Keep it up. Thank God the hype is over!
Yeah and for years no one wanted them and they were considered by many as Rolex’s ugliest watch. Just shows the influence UA-camrs have had on the watch market and peoples opinions.
What comes up must come down… additionally people’s budgets are getting tighter and things like luxury watches are one of the first things to go regardless of hype. As hype is also fading… prices should “correct” moving forward. Time will tell.
This is such a valuable analysis, thank you! Hope your collab with Watchcharts can continue. For me personally, I’ve made peace with the fact that this watch hobby of mine is not an investment. At best, compared to my other hobbies, it is the one that offers the best residual value potential.
Wow...the Rolex data was particularly interesting....not surprising...but interesting. You're spot on...The Hype models will likely stay at or above retail but anyone who invests in a 2-tone or prescious stone Datejust/Sub etc will likely lose money. Similarly for Patek, too many eggs in one basket but the Haute Horology/Unique models along with the integrated sports models keep the brand afloat
Like I said in the video - The rolex data shouldn't surprise you (at least if you've been in the hobby for a while). Sometimes it just cool to have data the confirms what you already know 😀
This guy quickly climbed up in my UA-cam list. Seriously. After TGV who had his head lost somewhere last year unfortunately. This person becomes my 2nd favorite.😊
@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch you are the impressive person. Your analysis and granularity of aspects which no one thinks of makes you a stand-out in the list of watch reviewers! I'm delighted that my connent has reached you! Keep true to yourself, you're amazing! Tristano breathes watches and I love him in a respectful sense. I follow him since the very beginning in 2019. I started with many back in time. I've been following all of them, Jory, Jody, Rob Teddy, Bruce and many more. So I have a clear understanding now who is making a show, who is making money and who is combining the best from all worlds :)
Hey Mike, a bit of charting advice @ 6:01 - to avoid straight lines up fill the blanks / replace the zeros with =NA() formula, so the lines will start at the first point. Also - since you occasionally use charts, feel free to hit me up - I can make some beautifully-formatted banking-style ones for you (for free ofc).
Lol - Not my sexiest charts. I also added an inflation line which should just have been a horizontal threshold line instead of a trajectory. They got the job done but wouldn't have flown in the boardroom 😀
~12:42 It's not the Rolex watch itself that gets people excited anymore...it's the actual acquisition of one....kind of like a one night stand. That's why so many end up on the secondary market.
Let’s not over complicate this. It’s called a bubble. Demand increased and supply was low. The manufacturers responded with overproduction. This happens in every single industry in the world. Doesn’t matter if it’s agriculture, home building, tulips, or in this case watch manufacturing. The industry needed a correction.
It’s even easier than that. Demand didn’t merely increase, it shifted to luxury goods and away from travel and luxury experiences due to the pandemic. Same reason that bathroom remodels and stationary bikes experienced simultaneous bubbles. When the world reopened, demand shifted back to timeshares and baseball tickets.
Why is it bad? It's very good news for true collectors like us. We get rid of flippers and shady second hand dealers. It's a win, win from my perspective.
I agree. It tells manufacturers and salesmen that they have to earn our money, not vice versa. This means more innovation, better pricing, more availability. All good things. The Swiss are extremely rich, touching grass and experiencing the real world may do the industry and its players a world of good.
Not sure if i got the same message from the vid. For some models this was always true even with rolex. Doesn't mean that the company is not highly profitable. Rolex is maybe the marketing star on the entire planet. They are the epitome of what people consider ,rich' ,lurxury'. A lot of that is build around the waitlists and difficulties to get one. As long as the company makes huge profit they wouldn't sell you a panda daytona even if they had 100000 of them unsold
It is bad in the sense that the industry stagnates and there are less incentives to invest and innovate, compared to a flourishing market.
@@el_manu_el_actually, quite the opposite, a hungry industry innovates and pushes boundaries because manufacturers have sometime to prove. They need to stand out and sell, sell, sell. They got comfortable and cocky during the boom. Treating customers poorly, same boring releases with minor changes, you know the story. Now, manufactures and watch salesmen have no choice but to show some respect to their customers.
The industry is not eager to innovate. Free AI comes up with true beauty that's so easy to achieve - while they choose white gold or platinum, you kidding?.. While their websites' ENTIRE SECTIONS are BUGGED into TOTAL DYSFUNCTIONALITY
Art used to there for enjoyment, then it became an investment. A house, a place to live, now an investment. A car a means of transport, now an investment. A watch an instrument to tell the time, now an investment. Sadly, society is underinvesting in getting itself smarter. Buy the watch you like, enjoy it and if you or your heirs make money off it, consider it a gift from above.
The World is a business Mr. MJ. it has been since man crawled out of the slime.
Very well said. Sadly society today has become a monster of materialism.
@@edblair5253yes. But it shouldn’t.
It's a side effect of income inequality. It's the same reason people are becoming musicians, and Instagram influencers, everyone wants a get rich quick scheme because get rich slow schemes don't work anymore. If you work your ass off your whole life now, you'll still die in an apartment you're sharing with three people
There's no faster way that I lose respect for anyone in the finfluencer space than when they allude to a watch being an investment or holding value.
Some do, the flintfluencers just don’t shut up about it.
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
Considering what's an investment. Like, look up Neil Patel's article about his luxurious watches. A huge problem now is these watch companies' management. 95% have their WEBSITES SO BUGGED, their contact forms are COMPLETELY DYSFUNCTIONAL. Is that anywhere near luxury!?
@@GEMSofGOD_com my prior comment seems to get auto-deleted but forward predicting what watches *might* increase or stay over retail value is a fools game. especially if you compare to traditional asset classes.
I am glad. Sick of these absurd made of valuations, watches sitting in safes, ridiculous IMO.
Me too. I'm laughing. I dumped my Breitling, Omega, Tag and some others during the hype. I'm loving my share investments, and cheap but fun shitters like Orient Kamasu, and some microbrand stunners.
@@thegorn I wouldn't even call the Kamasu a shitter ... it puts a lot of mid-range Seikos to shame.
Those who survived the quartz crisis wont survive the smartwatch, especially because it combines with the mistreat and they disappointment of the mid-class watch lover and collector
@@halfsourlizard9319mate it is 100% a shitter, and those “mid-range Seikos” are shitters too.
The data is nice but one shouldn't mix it up with these brands being not highly profitable. If one is thinking that we are heading towards times when you could enter an AD and take a panda daytona with you or that he calls you within 3 month i only could say good luck. Another point is the data not necessarily showing the difference in between models, there were always some rolex models you could buy at list price without waiting time. Situations are so different for a 1908 compared to a sub
Well, let's remember that this is the normal. We just went through abnormal years. All watches should dive from retail because there are loads of them and their actual value is about 1/3 of retail.
This
All watches are worth a fraction of what they sell for. It costs rolex less than 500 usd to make a submariner, they use less than 2000 usd worth of gold in an all gold watch.
@@dudewithcomedy1 there is a really interesting video on YT that shows a day date 40 has 133.7 grams of gold in it. That’s accounting already for it being 18k gold. In today’s market that is just under $10k in gold. There is more than you think in the current gold market, it’s surprising.
I still agree with what you’re saying overall btw. However the gold watches are actually more worth their price than the steel ones where the cost of the steel is likely a few bucks and the gold is harder to machine and smelt etc too as they make their own. Ironic that the steel ones sell for almost the price of gold ones in some cases on the aftermarket.
Reversion to the mean can be a real bitch.
exactly this was the norm before 2019 happened, i've talked to ADs and they all mention that retail prices of watches are always at the very least 2.5x the production cost
i buy them i wear them i keep them
Exactly. I buy watches to commemorate accomplishments and will cherish them for as long as I live. Sucks that scumbag flippers make it almost impossible to purchase models I've always wanted (for retail and not 3x the price).
Exactly!
Same 👍
Same here, I buy what I like and keep it. I've still got every watch I ever bought since the mid 1970s.
Buy to enjoy 😀
I remember when I bought my first luxury watch. I bought a Breitling Avenger Chronometer. Someone told me “Breitling doesn’t hold value in the secondary market.” My response was “I didn’t buy it to sell it. I bought it wearing.” I still wear it. Great video, per usual.
i love breitling , bought a chronomat some years ago from usa for £2k and wore and owned for about 9 years and sold
for £3k , i have since bought super ocean 46mm which with steel strap retail £4500 , managed to buy a 6 month old
as new with both steel and rubber stap + first owner extended warranty 5 years , £2800 , don't think i will loose money
and maybe in time it may make ...
i bought to wear though ( for best ) as have oris aquis , longines hydroconquest , bulova marine star ...........
That "doesn't hold value in the secondary market" statement is indicative of the investment mindset. It's everywhere (people buying/flipping luxury clothing like Prada and Gucci or Chanel and Louis Vuitton handbags). Crazy! 🙄
@@John-km9ju I hate it. I hear the same about my Grand Seiko I love. Who cares if no one would buy it off me.
I buy watches to wear and I buy what appeals to me. I’m not worried about selling it later.
Yes! And those who bought into the illusion of so called investment...many of them are up to eyeballs in debt maybe.
good approach 😀
Yep
I really just want to buy a nice watch for my husband to pass on to our son someday. Hopefully I can buy a watch now at nothing over retail and without given the discriminatory glance from idiot salesman.
@@socalmom76 best to buy a luxury brand other than Rolex. Omega and Tudor are good options.
I tend to buy my watches used. My Omegas and Tudors were all purchased second hand. I bought watches that were months old by less than retail. The drop for Omega is less than for Tudor, which is indeed enormous. My anecdotes match your data perfectly. Needless to say, this is another great video. Keep up the good work.
Same I am buying seamaster and Cartier now almost 50 percent off. Used of course
Same here. I would say 90% of my luxury watches are all pre owned. I always say, if you’ve a reputable watch shop that does authentication, then let someone take the depreciation hit for you
Many years ago I picked up a navitimer b01 for ~60% of RRP... 2 months old... still had some factory seals on it. There's no way you can justify buying new in scenarios like that...
Exactly! 👍🏼 Got my Tudor for 35% less than MSRP this way.
Where is the best place to buy pre owned luxury watches? I also would love to buy the pre owned watches but the thought of getting fake scares me.
I'm a collector of Breitling watches. I buy them with disposable income and I have never sold a watch. I wear one everyday and it always makes me happy. When I die I will leave my collection to my two sons. This is what watch collecting is all about. I don't care about hype, resale value and investment.
So you're a supervillain?
@@bobdrooples only in my own mind
Well, you need sympathy and prayers then.
Man I thought this might be my own comment lol I had to make sure I didn’t make this comment ❤it’s definitely my thought about the whole thing too 😊
It’s not just the high end. Volumes are significantly down in the under 2k, under 1k, price segments. Justifying *another* watch purchase when you’ve got alot of them already gathering dust gets harder and harder when other expenditure takes priority.
For real
I used this downturn to my advantage and picked up a mint BB58 blue (3 years ago it was a hype watch) for 45% off retail. For $2500 it’s one heck of a value and I love the watch.
This is the huge advantage for collectors to the downturn.
Wow. Where did you find a deal like that?
Similar case here. I bought a preown Tudor bb DK as I’ve been eyeing it for awhile now, at around SGD2.6k. Retail I check was around sgd 6-7k 😆 Of course some minor scuffs to bracelet is unavoidable, but heck I’m putting it on a rubber strap, so I could care less
@@rukkit8705 bought it used off someone who wanted another watch. Was super clean I think he hardly wore it.
I don't have that kind of money, i could not afford anything near that. many watch prices remind me of the Invicta sale on QVC. Over price the value, then discount it heavy to get people excited.
Everyone trying to act above their wage. We can tell if you’re broke l. A watch isn’t going to save you.
Rolex is still ridiculous. Need to look at it from 2019, as opposed to 2021.
I have never bought a watch as an investment and I have a selection of the three brands you mentioned. But all were purchased for the memories they were associated with or, generated thru the buying experience. Whether these memories are for me, my two daughters and more importantly my three grand children. Who I hope will have that quiet smile and think of me as they tell the time many years from.
Saturday morning coffee with a new video from Mike. This is the life.
Lol... Anything to avoid chores in the house 😂
Watches are definitely not investments - loss of price over time plus don’t forget the costs of selling. Buy watches because you love them.
agree 😃
Thank you for all of your great independent reviews/analysis. Great information and not a sellout like most watch youtube channels. You do not have your own store or watchbrand. You do not get free watches for reviews. Just great videos from a true enthousiast.
Keep up the good work! Hope your channel will continue to grow!
Thanks - I hope my channel continues to deliver something worth watching 😀
I was an old-school values investigative newspaper journalist 30 years, and this is absolute professional A1 explanatory journalism. Another fantastic piece. Thanks 🙏
High praise - much appreciated 😀😀😀😀
Another wonderful video. Need more of these videos to just remind myself that watches are not investments but just fun toys.
I have a Black Bay GMT I bought a few years ago and I love it. Never bought it as an investment and seems a little silly to buy watches hoping you make money on them. I wear mine everyday so it’s probably lost some value because of wear, but that’s why you buy them.
I work in finance. This is just the beginning for many assets like watches. Buckle up.
Smart man.
Yep I've been noticing that lately things can't go up forever. Everything is overpriced from houses to cars everything is at the top right now.
I sense it too. What do you see John?
Doomers are literally always wrong
I really appreciate your intelligent and informative commentary. I'm addicted to your videos. Please keep them coming.
will try 😀
What would really interest me is if we are finally starting to see an overall watch market decline ushered in by smart watches that was just obfuscated by the pandemic. It's become rare to see traditional watches now compared to none or Apple Watches.
I think watches were or still are a sort of counter culture to the smart watch, something people bought to express to others that they don't follow trends, something much more unique than the standard solid black chunk of glass, ironically leading to a trend of wearing traditional watches, especially mechanical watches.
Smart watches are a totally different product. They are functional and quite useful. By contrast, luxury mechanical watches are jewelry that happen to tell time.
@@ttjoseph1 Right, right - they share nothing but the name.
Even if they were ‘totally different’ the simple fact remains that people largely are only occupying one wrist so they vie for the same physical space.
@@RasenRambo23 Yup. I choose mechanical watch rather than smart watch personally but they are both good choices
It's the opposite. Before smart watches there was a giant constituency using their phones to tell the time. In other words, they had NO timekeeping device on their wrists. I'd argue that smartwatches saved mechanical watches. It is normalizing wearing watches again. For some number of people, that will translate to high end mechanical timepieces.
You truly have the best watch channel, informative, unbiased and fair. It's interesting you bring up Adrian Barker, for me when he's not shilling his overpriced Nato Straps he's on a jolly paid for by a watch brand and then gives us his "unbiased opinion"
Stopped watching him - realized he was a phony. Talked like he was a ‘man of the people’ - but just another guy flexing his Rolexes.
@@WestCoastAce27 Couldn't agree more. He was just about ok pre- about effing time, after then I realised he's mostly just a shill, and when he's not flogging overpriced Nato straps, he's constantly taking photographs of Rolexes being splashed with water and talking nonsense.
Adrian is sadly also a bit of a knobhead who thinks he knows more then he actually does.
I feel like luxury watches social media is trending towards perfume social media where it will be nearly impossible to get an unbiased option because companys send the stuff to the big channels and even when not paid the influencers have a huuuuge interest to have a good relationship to these brands - because you want another sended perfume/watch to make more content and you want a good representation of the brand to maybe get the panda daytona finally for list price. I mean e.g i love tudor as well but they became so overhyped and you hardly find any sort of critizism whatsoever. Chunky gmt etc and they gone up in price big time
@@IrishScribbler True story!
i’d really hate to think that some of those disgusting speculator flipper style people are stuck with things they can’t sell. It would be absolutely terrible if brands like IWC started suffering after their profiteering .
I really do hope that those people in the AD who looked down there nose at folk like me when I went to ask about a datejust are ok .
Well said. I’m not religious but ‘you reap what you sow’, watch version, is starting to play out.
Hear hear! I love it!
All of this warms the hearts of us enthusiasts. ❤
Thank you for the excellent news for genuine watch enthusiasts.
I have yet to see any price reductions appearing at my local ADs though.
Hopefully the 2nd hand market will totally collapse shortly.
I think the point is people don’t have excess cash to buy, so even if prices are lower people can’t or are scared to make such purchases.
I believe inflation will make any real World Asset a better choice over fiat currency
It won't translate as price reductions initially it will be availablity in previously empty cabinets. I see brands like JLC really struggling unless you start to see discounts. Their recent price increases were insane.
Rolex F***ed around & Found out! Never disrespect your customers.
truth 😉
Is it Rolex or the dealers?
@@rh1617 Both.
Yes 👏🏽 But watches are consumable items, not investment vehicles.
Rolex don’t sell to customers, they sell to AD’s and AD’s sell to customers. Rolex are still selling as many watches as they always do (over 1million a year), it’s the AD’s that are struggling
Investing in watches is silly. Buy what you like because you like it and the money is disposable. If that's a casio great. If thats a platinum tourbillion good for you.
Great video as always. Investing in watches was a silly idea born out of exceptional circumstances. Now we are having a reality check. I am enjoying a lot my Maurice Lacroix Aikon . A summer watch , elegant , versatile and very affordable, particularly in the second hand market. Cheers.
Looks like you and Teddy had the same idea
I saw that too😂
Stopped watching him when he started doing collabs w know nothing O’Leary 🤦♂️
And his amazing Maisons@@WestCoastAce27
Funny I got that video recommended under this one
Teddy has turned into a grifter unfortunately
Great video Mike. I had a give and take on a popular watch blog about the Morgan Stanley report (specifically Tudor). It’s amazing to me how people dismiss credible data and specifically Tudors hype slowdown. Data will set you free!
numbers don't lie (but they can be manipulated) 😀
I get that supply and demand will drive the price. What really bothers me is that some dealers won't sell you a watch even if they have it because you weren't the right person for that watch.
Come to california
I prefer this market realty perspective. Vice biases that people have which are not based on hard cold data.
Chin chin Mike,
Chris
Extraordinary analysis.. thanks mate! And yes, I love my Tudor FXD as well .. but my JLC Reverso Tribute Monoface Burgundy small seconds I like a little more. It's not as practical obviously but the design is stunning, it's dead accurate and I'm surprised by myself not being a dress watch guy how much I enjoy this rather subtle and small and comfy watch on my wrist
Oooh that Reverso must be nice.
Tudor are the super value watches today. Quality is great and priced reasonably. 1-2 year old model on the secondary market is a true bargain.
Agree. Which is why judging Tudor by the secondary market is nonsense. They are not a watch that command more than rrp on the secondary market. That doesn’t mean the brand is struggling. Next year we will see how Tudor have done and it think they will have increased sales.
The reality is with price increases you aren't losing that much. A Tudor BB pro sells on eBay for about £2k. If 3 years old you bought it at £2670 not current retail. I recently got a GMT 2 years old for my Dad £2k. Losing this kind of money between new retail and a used piece is vastly normal, rather than a crisis. Tudor needs to know it's place. Cool brushed finish tool watches. The jubilee on the new black bay is a mess. They have been coasting for the last 5 plus years doing dial variants and black bay in different sizes. Remember all the bonkers vintage chronos at launch. So of course people are buying secondary if there is very little new in the AD, why wouldn't you?
This is great news…anyone that buys watches as an investment isn’t a lover of watches. Genuine watch lovers moved to other less known brands while the whole instagram, the flippers push prices up. Great analysis.
So basically the super rich get to wear super exclusive desirable pieces basically for free(gray market). Which makes the grail watch for us average plebs as impossible to get as Unobtainium. Great video.
Cheers☮️
Yup
Yes. That coupled with - at least for the most part by Rolex ADs - selling to ‘longtime customers’, not even trying to grow their base. Pretty arrogant to think it will last forever - selling ~5% to new people seems like a no brainer. But they show no inclination to do that or kill/slow flipping by buying back grey watches, tracing them back to the worst offenders.
That is how money works.
Pretty much. Cheers 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch your honesty is refreshing. Cheers☮️
Fabulous. Best news I have heard all day. Consumer goods nearly always depreciate as soon as they are purchased. Cars, computers, clothes, everything. It’s only because of ‘influencers’, flippers and grey market dealers that some goods (certain watches, Berkin bags, etc) saw massive increases. I have never, ever paid more than new retail price for anything and never will. I never expect any consumer goods buy to increase in value and never regard them to be investments.
Very interesting as always! Thanks!
I wear my boring-not-so-hype Tudor BB41 monochrome on jubilee, bought on retail price (but I don't care about its resale value as I intend to enjoy it a lot!)
My two watches that bring me joy are my 1998 IWC Flieger Chronograph and my 1954 gold Pie Pan Constellation.
We watched similar price dynamics happen in the high end bicycle market and the guitar market. The covid boom brought about the same story of demand increases during covid, followed by brands ordering parts, followed by consumers losing interest when the lockdowns ended and people had their fill of these things.
I own a few Tudors, Omegas, and Rolexes. I want a Patek and an AP. I really want a couple of LF's and RD's but NONE of it is for investments. It is for my enjoyment, and to leave to my children when I'm gone to remember me and to do with them what they want. Fascinating video, confirming my thoughts about watch investment in general. Bubbles come in all variations.
Watches are better heirlooms than property or money from a sentimental point of view.
I completely agree 👍🏻
sold my rolexes and a tudor to fund a PP 5055G-010. Will leave one special watch rather than several mid range ones to my son.
Same here, instead with CASIOs and Baltanys , lol. If someone wants to gift me a rolex, cool, but I have much better uses for that money than an overpriced watch
Dad? Is that you?
I appreciate your honest insight into the world of watches! Your presentation is very matter of fact and to the point. Great knowledge delivered in a no-nonsence way. Nicely done!
Thanks, cheers 😀
There were articles in the local (Swiss) newspapers a few weeks ago. Tudor, Rolex and others, suppliers, etc. have and are firing temps and contracted. Strangely this week-end, the Rolex store in Geneva had a long queue of tourists which is strange because non-locals will not get anything there...
That's the thing - I spoke to some people in the industry and they confirmed that redundancies are going around 😃
With the exceptions of 2-3 watches, I have always tried to buy Omega, Grand Seiko, and Tudor used or new with discount of 10-15%. At the moment, discounts from many brand ADs (with a buying history) is pretty good and buying used, esp. from Japan (think Omega and GS), is quite good in terms of pricing and room to negotiate.
Yeah, with the Yen, I bought a new GS quartz for about $500 less. saying that, I did have to pay customs like $175.
It happens that I just submitted adjusted values to my insurance for my watches this morning ... Can confirm that values have taken a nose dive ... which means lower premiums for watches that I never intend to sell anyhow!
The watch market is on a long bumpy road so buckle up! Word on the street is that Patek Philippe are making a much larger percentage of Nautilus and Aquanauts-they know these will sell even in a bad watch market. I like graphs 📊 as well Mike😎!
Many models from Patek, AP, and Rolex still can’t be bought by just walking into an AD.
Patek and Rolex are still making additional production facilities to keep up with demand. Maybe it’s not as much as two years ago, but it’s definitely still there. The watch market has been down 25% the last two years but is still up by 30% if we look at the past 5 years.
Agree. I live in a huge US city; on the list for a non-hype Rolex at 3 ADs for over a year. No call. Near new are still commanding a 20-25% premium. Ridiculous.
Not manny people on the ‘list’ realize the flip is coming to an end. Time will tell.
Every year we get a more millionaires globally. There's no shortage of customers overall for products that are desirable. These brands in the high to ultra high end will be fine 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch
At least until the meteor hits Europe. ☄
We seem to be going into the microbrand era, where purchasing will be more value driven and the stories behind the watches and brands will be more approachable and transparent.
I also think high quality quartz will make a resurgence as many people have gotten bitten by the bug in recent years that rushed into the hobby and are just settling in to what they signed up for.
I agree with the first sentence. Not so much with quartz resurgence :)
For quartz I choose g-shock. Simple, cheap, reliable. For mechanical I go with microbrands. Better value for money, better finish and materials.
Just bought BB monochrome. I love it. Don’t care about market value.
Very good choice ! Top !
As it should be. Congrats
Great watch, enjoy it and you didn’t have to deal with a sleazy, fast talking grey market dealer to get it! Excellent!
Congrats. It’s the Sub for those who aren’t longtime Rolex customers and refuse to pay above retail for a mass produced watch. I have the Pelagos 39 which fills that role in my collection.
Good call 😀
I always appreciate the market insights, Mike.
Great vid. While I take the source data (watch charts) with a grain of salt, as they trend 5-15% higher than actual selling prices on forums and C24, directionally your analysis is spot on.
True - C24 in my experience has a lot of "list prices" which are totally bananas. I personally regard them as a starting point for a negotiation, especially with dealers that just have a stock photo of the watch there. 😃
This is exactly the type of content that made me a subscriber. Well done, sir.
Glad to hear it 😀
Your insights and analyses are excellent and very much appreciated, Mike. I love your style, your confidence and your information. Thank you very much for all the work and thought you put into your videos, particularly your preparation.
Most mechanical devices (guns, watches) are relatively poor investments. 1) They don't perform as well as most financial "devices"such as stock or precious metals. Also, when I buy a quality gun or watch I tend to have a psychological attachment to them and that makes them more difficult to trade.
Guns and watches caught my attention - that’s my hobby money pit. I’ve found the trick is to keep both collections at three - buy smart, buy practically - and if you just have to have something, force yourself to part with one and see just how much you REALLY want the new and shiny. Pragmatism forces a stronger bond with what you already have.
This is an interesting comment. Good investing requires zero emotional attachment. Perhaps that is why some people are not as successful with guns and watches. You noted as much in your remark. Fellow gun and watch collector here, cheers.
cars are same.
@@Brownimusprime I'm there with you and add in guitars. I only have about 2 in each category that are semi high priced. In watches especially, the $500-$600 range is my sweet spot.
Really enjoy your commentaries and appreciate your skill at succinctly distilling a mountain of data down to clear insights.
Mike gone full on number-beast-mode with this video! Thanks for all hard work, especially with all the interpretation. This must have been a tedious video to prepare.
On occassion I enjoy using excel, so I didn't find it as mind numbing as you would think. But it's a very different kind of vid production wise - yes 😉😂😂
Luxury watch UA-camrs had the lazy option of hyping 'value retention.' It's no longer factual; also known as a Lie. Overdue is a shift to the less sexy, more intelligent discussion of the 'value play.' Pre-owned Panerai, IWC, or even Lange. Fabulous video as always.
An old slogan "rolex is money into the safe". For a popular steel sport this means you can enjoy and don t loose money (if bought at retail).
It's a half truth - Like I say in the video. It's likely the brand that will lose least value of most watch brands. Some may appreciate and even keep up with inflation and thereby not lose money. But it's a small minority of rolexes that meaningfully appreciate 😀
I agree - a further example is the Rolex SD4K. Wasn’t liked, founded as boring at its time, sold for low prices and so only produced for less than 3 years… that was a good investment that time looking at the prices today.
Be interesting to see what Vacheron are doing. Great analysis, thank you!
My pleasure 😀
I always love hearing your insight.
glad to hear that 😀
Best watch channel ! Thanks for all your work and videos
Thanks for watching 😀
Thanks for highlighting the valuation variations between a brand's "halo" and "non-halo" watches. Porsche 911s have the same market value phenomenon. GT models (halo cars) have big dealer markups and higher secondary market prices. A purchaser of a new base 911 is lucky to experience 4% to 6% depreciation in a year. It's all about the hype.
Bingo - spot on comparison 😃
Another great video Mike. Very interesting analysis, thanks so much for putting in the time and effort. In answer to your question my green faced IWC MK XX makes me very happy evey time I put it on.
Well said - Great watch 😃
Love this episode. Really interesting data. I have to say though, the watch in my collection I most enjoy is my Tudor BB58 blue. I picked it up to commemorate a promotion and I adore it. Sometimes “boring” is exactly the right choice for you.
Buying used is the way to go and I must say - buying what you can afford. I have a feeling lots of people are confusing being able to buy a watch with actually being able to afford it. They are not the same. A budget for watches should in my opinion be set only after personal/household finances are properly taken care of.
No, I'm not paying 3x the price when I can just wait a few years and maybe get it brand new.
This is a good comment and is true of all nonessential purchases, not only watches.
Exactly, people are finding it hard to budget for luxuries, hence the second hand market is like this. Was the opposite before.
My first semi luxury watch was bought after I had fully paid off my mortgages. There is no way I could enjoy a frivolous spend on a watch while I was paying interest on a mortgage. Seems crazy to me.
@@adamjac1251 Smart man! It is way more rewarding to have a paid off mortgage than a shiny new watch. I wish more people knew this.
I've rarely enjoyed a watch video more. As a watch supplier, thank you for thinking of us 😊 keep up the great work.
Thanks - I've heard first hand that times are tough with some suppliers. 😀
I think TAG might give Tudor a run for its money. If they continue with the Glass Box series and develop Heuer as an independent brand within the group, the sky is the limit imho. Great vid Mike! Thanks
@@Pler1978 They are back. Their latest Carrera's are really good.
I don’t share @pler1978’s extreme view - but they are (and will always be) shunned by many in our watch hobby due to their Quartz and smart watch offerings.
Tag Heuer has made great strides the last few years. Unlike many brands they have Horological history and true design history. Not HOMAGE watches like ….. Some mistakes along the way. New team assembled heading TH knows what they are doing.
People need to really tale a look.
TAG is dog water.
I think Tag are giving swatch group a run for their money with their Mike Tyson Kith Collab .😉
Glad to see this happening for those of us who refuse to overpay. Sorry for those who overpaid.
As for Tudor, tried to like them because of the hype. Just every time i tried one on all i could see was an homage. Kinda a boring watch. Good price point, but they are a pass for me.
Very nicely done, mate. Another point to note is the cost to sell a watch (currently 6% on Chrono24) and, for more expensive pieces, insurance. The former isn't so much of a factor when holding a stock (fees are normally fractions of a percent) and the latter not at all. I feel Oisín O Malley could benefit from seeing this.. 😅
Oisín O Malley is a pompous douche!
And the depreciation because of the wear and tear of the watch. Want to sell it to a dealer? You're getting 20-30% less for the watch 😀
Oisen says a lot of dumb things
It is genuinely disturbing watching the UA-cam videos of high-flying gray market watch flippers from two plus years ago and how they hyped up their product. The comments section of those videos are even more telling of where the market was at.
Thank you for another enlightening video.
👍 Sad commentary on society. They were treated like stars. All they were doing was inserting themselves as middlemen for products that needed no help selling. And driving up prices.
The thing with Tudor is that they are readily available once released. That plays a large part into why their watches have that dip. There is none of that fake “low supply” game many other brands try to play.
TRue. It does have an effect 😃
This is beyond true thank you for putting the facts out there
Amazing content as always.
Would love to see the same sort of video discussing vintage pieces across these brands - if watch charts have those insights
Would love to hear about AP and JLC. I understand they’re on the same trajectory. I wonder how JKC’s massive price increase after the boom will double hurt them…
I am pretty sure JLC is having a hard time at the moment. A tribue moon goes for half retail at the moment. Most Reversos do, except maybe for the new chrono reverso 😀
This forensically mirrors so many of our anecdotal experiences as collectors, putting into hard words what we sensed but didn't want to acknowledge.
yep what you could gather from watch charts pretty much matches what one would expectt, doesn't it? I mean who expects a Tudor do trade above retail when it's a pretty much readily available brand...also, Patek always had those hyped outliers in a otherwise solid performing to meh collection that's why those are considered hype:D
Not all of my audience has the insight you do - A lot of people assuming anything Patek and anything Rolex is going to be popular. And some even assign that logic to Tudor too - because, they're "rolex mini" 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch I see where you're coming from, and definitely don't have more insight than your average viewer I think (since you are not a superficial clickbait channel, but a deeper-digger one) ;) maybe I phrased too harshly:)
18:15 Actually, it is the difference between investing (buying to generate a cash flow) and speculating (buying at a low price expecting to resale later at a larger price).
Thank goodness, someone who gets it. 👏
Love your watch videos based on facts. No bs. No spin. No vested interests or agendas. So many so called influencers talking up certain brands because they have so much money tied up in pieces.Great video. Thank you!
I appreciate that 😃
I'd rather say it's about time! Rolex is the most overpriced brand ever, so the manufactorer has been earning BIG money for decades only because the watches are tagged Rolex.
This is really a great analysis. Thank you for preparing it. I was tired of waitlist and bought grand seiko. I am enjoying that watch
In all fairness you got a better quality watch and haven't followed the Herd ,wear it in good health 👍
@@Andrew-yy2ye thank you
Good to hear you found a watch you're happy with 😀
Fantastic. Appreciate the comment about watches being a relatively poor investment compared to the stock market over time.
cheers 😃
You should buy what you want to own, not what you want to flip.
I want a Sea-Dweller 116600 because to me it's the best dive watch ever made. I know Sea-Dwellers are a horrible investment, but that's not what I want it for.
Love the SD4K
Sd4 k the jewel in the rolex crown, and theirs not many ❤
James Cameron for me. Almost unwearable on me, but I do like it 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Same here. The 126660 with the D-Blue dial was my grail until I tried it on. It looks ridiculous in me.
What. A. Video.
I can’t believe how direct, data-driven, and objective this was. Thank you!
Glad it was helpful 😃
It's a good day when TWTW releases a video
Excellent video my friend. My favorite watch channel by a country mile. Insightful. Entertaining. Learn something new in every video. Keep it up. Thank God the hype is over!
Cheers and thank you 😀
Just try and get your hands on a Rolex Explorer II Polar - you'll be waiting years. The black dial version is more obtainable.
Yeah and for years no one wanted them and they were considered by many as Rolex’s ugliest watch. Just shows the influence UA-camrs have had on the watch market and peoples opinions.
In ten years there will only be two or three valuable rolexes, and it will be the same boring steel watches they always have been
What comes up must come down… additionally people’s budgets are getting tighter and things like luxury watches are one of the first things to go regardless of hype. As hype is also fading… prices should “correct” moving forward. Time will tell.
buy OMEGA only or Grand Seiko at these prices. Don't get ripped off because of the Brand name.
I literally just bought both of those. SMP300 and a "Skyflake" hahaha
I got the skyflake for 40% off if you can believe it.
This is such a valuable analysis, thank you! Hope your collab with Watchcharts can continue. For me personally, I’ve made peace with the fact that this watch hobby of mine is not an investment. At best, compared to my other hobbies, it is the one that offers the best residual value potential.
Good news!
true 😀
Another great well reasoned no BS video about the watch industry, You my friend are an asset to the U-tube space. Plz, keep up the good work!👍
will try, thank you 😀
And congrats for your 40k, Mike! Mike
Thanks a ton 😃😃😃
Wow...the Rolex data was particularly interesting....not surprising...but interesting. You're spot on...The Hype models will likely stay at or above retail but anyone who invests in a 2-tone or prescious stone Datejust/Sub etc will likely lose money. Similarly for Patek, too many eggs in one basket but the Haute Horology/Unique models along with the integrated sports models keep the brand afloat
Like I said in the video - The rolex data shouldn't surprise you (at least if you've been in the hobby for a while). Sometimes it just cool to have data the confirms what you already know 😀
@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch agree completely. Anecdotally knew the situation but great to see the numbers confirming it too. Cheers
Most watches shouldn't be bought at retail unless with a 20-30% discount
So, under retail. Agree.
Agreed, but the retailers still sell for massive prices.
This guy quickly climbed up in my UA-cam list. Seriously. After TGV who had his head lost somewhere last year unfortunately. This person becomes my 2nd favorite.😊
Thanks for the praise. That's impressive company you put me with 😃
@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch you are the impressive person. Your analysis and granularity of aspects which no one thinks of makes you a stand-out in the list of watch reviewers! I'm delighted that my connent has reached you! Keep true to yourself, you're amazing! Tristano breathes watches and I love him in a respectful sense. I follow him since the very beginning in 2019. I started with many back in time. I've been following all of them, Jory, Jody, Rob Teddy, Bruce and many more. So I have a clear understanding now who is making a show, who is making money and who is combining the best from all worlds :)
Hey Mike, a bit of charting advice @ 6:01 - to avoid straight lines up fill the blanks / replace the zeros with =NA() formula, so the lines will start at the first point.
Also - since you occasionally use charts, feel free to hit me up - I can make some beautifully-formatted banking-style ones for you (for free ofc).
Lol - Not my sexiest charts. I also added an inflation line which should just have been a horizontal threshold line instead of a trajectory. They got the job done but wouldn't have flown in the boardroom 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch I somehow interpreted the inflation line as "yield equivalent to inflation", so I guess yeah, got the job done 😅
~12:42 It's not the Rolex watch itself that gets people excited anymore...it's the actual acquisition of one....kind of like a one night stand. That's why so many end up on the secondary market.
Let’s not over complicate this. It’s called a bubble. Demand increased and supply was low. The manufacturers responded with overproduction. This happens in every single industry in the world. Doesn’t matter if it’s agriculture, home building, tulips, or in this case watch manufacturing. The industry needed a correction.
It’s even easier than that. Demand didn’t merely increase, it shifted to luxury goods and away from travel and luxury experiences due to the pandemic. Same reason that bathroom remodels and stationary bikes experienced simultaneous bubbles. When the world reopened, demand shifted back to timeshares and baseball tickets.
True 😃
Buy the dip