Why is it bad? It's very good news for true collectors like us. We get rid of flippers and shady second hand dealers. It's a win, win from my perspective.
I agree. It tells manufacturers and salesmen that they have to earn our money, not vice versa. This means more innovation, better pricing, more availability. All good things. The Swiss are extremely rich, touching grass and experiencing the real world may do the industry and its players a world of good.
Not sure if i got the same message from the vid. For some models this was always true even with rolex. Doesn't mean that the company is not highly profitable. Rolex is maybe the marketing star on the entire planet. They are the epitome of what people consider ,rich' ,lurxury'. A lot of that is build around the waitlists and difficulties to get one. As long as the company makes huge profit they wouldn't sell you a panda daytona even if they had 100000 of them unsold
@@el_manu_el_actually, quite the opposite, a hungry industry innovates and pushes boundaries because manufacturers have sometime to prove. They need to stand out and sell, sell, sell. They got comfortable and cocky during the boom. Treating customers poorly, same boring releases with minor changes, you know the story. Now, manufactures and watch salesmen have no choice but to show some respect to their customers.
The industry is not eager to innovate. Free AI comes up with true beauty that's so easy to achieve - while they choose white gold or platinum, you kidding?.. While their websites' ENTIRE SECTIONS are BUGGED into TOTAL DYSFUNCTIONALITY
Art used to there for enjoyment, then it became an investment. A house, a place to live, now an investment. A car a means of transport, now an investment. A watch an instrument to tell the time, now an investment. Sadly, society is underinvesting in getting itself smarter. Buy the watch you like, enjoy it and if you or your heirs make money off it, consider it a gift from above.
It's a side effect of income inequality. It's the same reason people are becoming musicians, and Instagram influencers, everyone wants a get rich quick scheme because get rich slow schemes don't work anymore. If you work your ass off your whole life now, you'll still die in an apartment you're sharing with three people
Me too. I'm laughing. I dumped my Breitling, Omega, Tag and some others during the hype. I'm loving my share investments, and cheap but fun shitters like Orient Kamasu, and some microbrand stunners.
Those who survived the quartz crisis wont survive the smartwatch, especially because it combines with the mistreat and they disappointment of the mid-class watch lover and collector
The data is nice but one shouldn't mix it up with these brands being not highly profitable. If one is thinking that we are heading towards times when you could enter an AD and take a panda daytona with you or that he calls you within 3 month i only could say good luck. Another point is the data not necessarily showing the difference in between models, there were always some rolex models you could buy at list price without waiting time. Situations are so different for a 1908 compared to a sub
I'm a collector of Breitling watches. I buy them with disposable income and I have never sold a watch. I wear one everyday and it always makes me happy. When I die I will leave my collection to my two sons. This is what watch collecting is all about. I don't care about hype, resale value and investment.
Exactly. I buy watches to commemorate accomplishments and will cherish them for as long as I live. Sucks that scumbag flippers make it almost impossible to purchase models I've always wanted (for retail and not 3x the price).
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
Considering what's an investment. Like, look up Neil Patel's article about his luxurious watches. A huge problem now is these watch companies' management. 95% have their WEBSITES SO BUGGED, their contact forms are COMPLETELY DYSFUNCTIONAL. Is that anywhere near luxury!?
@@GEMSofGOD_com my prior comment seems to get auto-deleted but forward predicting what watches *might* increase or stay over retail value is a fools game. especially if you compare to traditional asset classes.
I remember when I bought my first luxury watch. I bought a Breitling Avenger Chronometer. Someone told me “Breitling doesn’t hold value in the secondary market.” My response was “I didn’t buy it to sell it. I bought it wearing.” I still wear it. Great video, per usual.
i love breitling , bought a chronomat some years ago from usa for £2k and wore and owned for about 9 years and sold for £3k , i have since bought super ocean 46mm which with steel strap retail £4500 , managed to buy a 6 month old as new with both steel and rubber stap + first owner extended warranty 5 years , £2800 , don't think i will loose money and maybe in time it may make ... i bought to wear though ( for best ) as have oris aquis , longines hydroconquest , bulova marine star ...........
That "doesn't hold value in the secondary market" statement is indicative of the investment mindset. It's everywhere (people buying/flipping luxury clothing like Prada and Gucci or Chanel and Louis Vuitton handbags). Crazy! 🙄
Well, let's remember that this is the normal. We just went through abnormal years. All watches should dive from retail because there are loads of them and their actual value is about 1/3 of retail.
All watches are worth a fraction of what they sell for. It costs rolex less than 500 usd to make a submariner, they use less than 2000 usd worth of gold in an all gold watch.
@@dudewithcomedy1 there is a really interesting video on YT that shows a day date 40 has 133.7 grams of gold in it. That’s accounting already for it being 18k gold. In today’s market that is just under $10k in gold. There is more than you think in the current gold market, it’s surprising. I still agree with what you’re saying overall btw. However the gold watches are actually more worth their price than the steel ones where the cost of the steel is likely a few bucks and the gold is harder to machine and smelt etc too as they make their own. Ironic that the steel ones sell for almost the price of gold ones in some cases on the aftermarket.
exactly this was the norm before 2019 happened, i've talked to ADs and they all mention that retail prices of watches are always at the very least 2.5x the production cost
I really just want to buy a nice watch for my husband to pass on to our son someday. Hopefully I can buy a watch now at nothing over retail and without given the discriminatory glance from idiot salesman.
I tend to buy my watches used. My Omegas and Tudors were all purchased second hand. I bought watches that were months old by less than retail. The drop for Omega is less than for Tudor, which is indeed enormous. My anecdotes match your data perfectly. Needless to say, this is another great video. Keep up the good work.
Same here. I would say 90% of my luxury watches are all pre owned. I always say, if you’ve a reputable watch shop that does authentication, then let someone take the depreciation hit for you
Many years ago I picked up a navitimer b01 for ~60% of RRP... 2 months old... still had some factory seals on it. There's no way you can justify buying new in scenarios like that...
It’s not just the high end. Volumes are significantly down in the under 2k, under 1k, price segments. Justifying *another* watch purchase when you’ve got alot of them already gathering dust gets harder and harder when other expenditure takes priority.
I used this downturn to my advantage and picked up a mint BB58 blue (3 years ago it was a hype watch) for 45% off retail. For $2500 it’s one heck of a value and I love the watch. This is the huge advantage for collectors to the downturn.
Similar case here. I bought a preown Tudor bb DK as I’ve been eyeing it for awhile now, at around SGD2.6k. Retail I check was around sgd 6-7k 😆 Of course some minor scuffs to bracelet is unavoidable, but heck I’m putting it on a rubber strap, so I could care less
I don't have that kind of money, i could not afford anything near that. many watch prices remind me of the Invicta sale on QVC. Over price the value, then discount it heavy to get people excited.
I have never bought a watch as an investment and I have a selection of the three brands you mentioned. But all were purchased for the memories they were associated with or, generated thru the buying experience. Whether these memories are for me, my two daughters and more importantly my three grand children. Who I hope will have that quiet smile and think of me as they tell the time many years from.
I was an old-school values investigative newspaper journalist 30 years, and this is absolute professional A1 explanatory journalism. Another fantastic piece. Thanks 🙏
I have a Black Bay GMT I bought a few years ago and I love it. Never bought it as an investment and seems a little silly to buy watches hoping you make money on them. I wear mine everyday so it’s probably lost some value because of wear, but that’s why you buy them.
This is great news…anyone that buys watches as an investment isn’t a lover of watches. Genuine watch lovers moved to other less known brands while the whole instagram, the flippers push prices up. Great analysis.
Thank you for all of your great independent reviews/analysis. Great information and not a sellout like most watch youtube channels. You do not have your own store or watchbrand. You do not get free watches for reviews. Just great videos from a true enthousiast. Keep up the good work! Hope your channel will continue to grow!
Fabulous. Best news I have heard all day. Consumer goods nearly always depreciate as soon as they are purchased. Cars, computers, clothes, everything. It’s only because of ‘influencers’, flippers and grey market dealers that some goods (certain watches, Berkin bags, etc) saw massive increases. I have never, ever paid more than new retail price for anything and never will. I never expect any consumer goods buy to increase in value and never regard them to be investments.
My two watches that bring me joy are my 1998 IWC Flieger Chronograph and my 1954 gold Pie Pan Constellation. We watched similar price dynamics happen in the high end bicycle market and the guitar market. The covid boom brought about the same story of demand increases during covid, followed by brands ordering parts, followed by consumers losing interest when the lockdowns ended and people had their fill of these things.
There were articles in the local (Swiss) newspapers a few weeks ago. Tudor, Rolex and others, suppliers, etc. have and are firing temps and contracted. Strangely this week-end, the Rolex store in Geneva had a long queue of tourists which is strange because non-locals will not get anything there...
You truly have the best watch channel, informative, unbiased and fair. It's interesting you bring up Adrian Barker, for me when he's not shilling his overpriced Nato Straps he's on a jolly paid for by a watch brand and then gives us his "unbiased opinion"
@@WestCoastAce27 Couldn't agree more. He was just about ok pre- about effing time, after then I realised he's mostly just a shill, and when he's not flogging overpriced Nato straps, he's constantly taking photographs of Rolexes being splashed with water and talking nonsense.
I feel like luxury watches social media is trending towards perfume social media where it will be nearly impossible to get an unbiased option because companys send the stuff to the big channels and even when not paid the influencers have a huuuuge interest to have a good relationship to these brands - because you want another sended perfume/watch to make more content and you want a good representation of the brand to maybe get the panda daytona finally for list price. I mean e.g i love tudor as well but they became so overhyped and you hardly find any sort of critizism whatsoever. Chunky gmt etc and they gone up in price big time
Great video as always. Investing in watches was a silly idea born out of exceptional circumstances. Now we are having a reality check. I am enjoying a lot my Maurice Lacroix Aikon . A summer watch , elegant , versatile and very affordable, particularly in the second hand market. Cheers.
Great video Mike. I had a give and take on a popular watch blog about the Morgan Stanley report (specifically Tudor). It’s amazing to me how people dismiss credible data and specifically Tudors hype slowdown. Data will set you free!
i’d really hate to think that some of those disgusting speculator flipper style people are stuck with things they can’t sell. It would be absolutely terrible if brands like IWC started suffering after their profiteering . I really do hope that those people in the AD who looked down there nose at folk like me when I went to ask about a datejust are ok .
Agree. Which is why judging Tudor by the secondary market is nonsense. They are not a watch that command more than rrp on the secondary market. That doesn’t mean the brand is struggling. Next year we will see how Tudor have done and it think they will have increased sales.
The reality is with price increases you aren't losing that much. A Tudor BB pro sells on eBay for about £2k. If 3 years old you bought it at £2670 not current retail. I recently got a GMT 2 years old for my Dad £2k. Losing this kind of money between new retail and a used piece is vastly normal, rather than a crisis. Tudor needs to know it's place. Cool brushed finish tool watches. The jubilee on the new black bay is a mess. They have been coasting for the last 5 plus years doing dial variants and black bay in different sizes. Remember all the bonkers vintage chronos at launch. So of course people are buying secondary if there is very little new in the AD, why wouldn't you?
What would really interest me is if we are finally starting to see an overall watch market decline ushered in by smart watches that was just obfuscated by the pandemic. It's become rare to see traditional watches now compared to none or Apple Watches.
I think watches were or still are a sort of counter culture to the smart watch, something people bought to express to others that they don't follow trends, something much more unique than the standard solid black chunk of glass, ironically leading to a trend of wearing traditional watches, especially mechanical watches.
Smart watches are a totally different product. They are functional and quite useful. By contrast, luxury mechanical watches are jewelry that happen to tell time.
@@ttjoseph1 Right, right - they share nothing but the name. Even if they were ‘totally different’ the simple fact remains that people largely are only occupying one wrist so they vie for the same physical space.
It's the opposite. Before smart watches there was a giant constituency using their phones to tell the time. In other words, they had NO timekeeping device on their wrists. I'd argue that smartwatches saved mechanical watches. It is normalizing wearing watches again. For some number of people, that will translate to high end mechanical timepieces.
With the exceptions of 2-3 watches, I have always tried to buy Omega, Grand Seiko, and Tudor used or new with discount of 10-15%. At the moment, discounts from many brand ADs (with a buying history) is pretty good and buying used, esp. from Japan (think Omega and GS), is quite good in terms of pricing and room to negotiate.
Investing in watches is silly. Buy what you like because you like it and the money is disposable. If that's a casio great. If thats a platinum tourbillion good for you.
Thank you for the excellent news for genuine watch enthusiasts. I have yet to see any price reductions appearing at my local ADs though. Hopefully the 2nd hand market will totally collapse shortly.
It won't translate as price reductions initially it will be availablity in previously empty cabinets. I see brands like JLC really struggling unless you start to see discounts. Their recent price increases were insane.
How many used Rolex watches do you think are sitting on the second hand market at any one time worldwide ? is it possible to make a calculation or guess ? would this number be on an increase ?
Very interesting as always! Thanks! I wear my boring-not-so-hype Tudor BB41 monochrome on jubilee, bought on retail price (but I don't care about its resale value as I intend to enjoy it a lot!)
Love your Chanel. I am looking for a vibrant playful holiday watch so I don’t need to take my more expensive pieces with me. Needs to be good on the beach but equally look good with a polo / linen shirt and chino shorts for dinner. Any advice?
Extraordinary analysis.. thanks mate! And yes, I love my Tudor FXD as well .. but my JLC Reverso Tribute Monoface Burgundy small seconds I like a little more. It's not as practical obviously but the design is stunning, it's dead accurate and I'm surprised by myself not being a dress watch guy how much I enjoy this rather subtle and small and comfy watch on my wrist
Thanks for highlighting the valuation variations between a brand's "halo" and "non-halo" watches. Porsche 911s have the same market value phenomenon. GT models (halo cars) have big dealer markups and higher secondary market prices. A purchaser of a new base 911 is lucky to experience 4% to 6% depreciation in a year. It's all about the hype.
Rolex don’t sell to customers, they sell to AD’s and AD’s sell to customers. Rolex are still selling as many watches as they always do (over 1million a year), it’s the AD’s that are struggling
Many models from Patek, AP, and Rolex still can’t be bought by just walking into an AD. Patek and Rolex are still making additional production facilities to keep up with demand. Maybe it’s not as much as two years ago, but it’s definitely still there. The watch market has been down 25% the last two years but is still up by 30% if we look at the past 5 years.
Agree. I live in a huge US city; on the list for a non-hype Rolex at 3 ADs for over a year. No call. Near new are still commanding a 20-25% premium. Ridiculous.
Every year we get a more millionaires globally. There's no shortage of customers overall for products that are desirable. These brands in the high to ultra high end will be fine 😀
I get that supply and demand will drive the price. What really bothers me is that some dealers won't sell you a watch even if they have it because you weren't the right person for that watch.
The watch market is on a long bumpy road so buckle up! Word on the street is that Patek Philippe are making a much larger percentage of Nautilus and Aquanauts-they know these will sell even in a bad watch market. I like graphs 📊 as well Mike😎!
Bought the GMTii BLNR in 2015 at retail. Looking for an FP Journe Chronometre Bleu. Watches like cars are not investments, but a decent ways to diversify some cash and enjoy.
Congrats. It’s the Sub for those who aren’t longtime Rolex customers and refuse to pay above retail for a mass produced watch. I have the Pelagos 39 which fills that role in my collection.
Another excellent video. I buy used more often than not. I never bought into the “watches are investments”, which is constantly repeated by some UA-camr that only wear red straps and refer to themselves as the 8th wonder of the world. I feel sorry for people that fell for that. Keep up the good work.
Most mechanical devices (guns, watches) are relatively poor investments. 1) They don't perform as well as most financial "devices"such as stock or precious metals. Also, when I buy a quality gun or watch I tend to have a psychological attachment to them and that makes them more difficult to trade.
Guns and watches caught my attention - that’s my hobby money pit. I’ve found the trick is to keep both collections at three - buy smart, buy practically - and if you just have to have something, force yourself to part with one and see just how much you REALLY want the new and shiny. Pragmatism forces a stronger bond with what you already have.
This is an interesting comment. Good investing requires zero emotional attachment. Perhaps that is why some people are not as successful with guns and watches. You noted as much in your remark. Fellow gun and watch collector here, cheers.
@@Brownimusprime I'm there with you and add in guitars. I only have about 2 in each category that are semi high priced. In watches especially, the $500-$600 range is my sweet spot.
Hi Mike, I might have missed your comment but under current market, would you pay retail for a Tudor Black Bay Chrono? Apparently are widely available in several ADs now.
For your graphs, when your x-axis are dates, can you simplify it to just years or mmm-yyyy? It's so hard to read with days of the week & days of the month.
I remember last year being at a wedding in my country where i met old school mates after years. Rolexs, Omegas, etc but most of them stared at my 60s watch my grandfather gave me 😁 Atlantic Worldmaster, quite popular in the Balkans at the times but no so popular elsewhere. I love it
Very nicely done, mate. Another point to note is the cost to sell a watch (currently 6% on Chrono24) and, for more expensive pieces, insurance. The former isn't so much of a factor when holding a stock (fees are normally fractions of a percent) and the latter not at all. I feel Oisín O Malley could benefit from seeing this.. 😅
Great vid. While I take the source data (watch charts) with a grain of salt, as they trend 5-15% higher than actual selling prices on forums and C24, directionally your analysis is spot on.
True - C24 in my experience has a lot of "list prices" which are totally bananas. I personally regard them as a starting point for a negotiation, especially with dealers that just have a stock photo of the watch there. 😃
It happens that I just submitted adjusted values to my insurance for my watches this morning ... Can confirm that values have taken a nose dive ... which means lower premiums for watches that I never intend to sell anyhow!
I agree - a further example is the Rolex SD4K. Wasn’t liked, founded as boring at its time, sold for low prices and so only produced for less than 3 years… that was a good investment that time looking at the prices today.
yep what you could gather from watch charts pretty much matches what one would expectt, doesn't it? I mean who expects a Tudor do trade above retail when it's a pretty much readily available brand...also, Patek always had those hyped outliers in a otherwise solid performing to meh collection that's why those are considered hype:D
Not all of my audience has the insight you do - A lot of people assuming anything Patek and anything Rolex is going to be popular. And some even assign that logic to Tudor too - because, they're "rolex mini" 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch I see where you're coming from, and definitely don't have more insight than your average viewer I think (since you are not a superficial clickbait channel, but a deeper-digger one) ;) maybe I phrased too harshly:)
I bought a patek calantrava 3319 in 1995. Never a popular model for collectors. It cost 7500. Worth about 10 now. But I love it. When small diameter comes back into vogue, and they will, my son can have a nice heirloom.
Mike gone full on number-beast-mode with this video! Thanks for all hard work, especially with all the interpretation. This must have been a tedious video to prepare.
On occassion I enjoy using excel, so I didn't find it as mind numbing as you would think. But it's a very different kind of vid production wise - yes 😉😂😂
I bought my first Tudor in February this year. It was a 2022 Ranger and I got it for a really good price. I think Longines might take Tudor place if Tudor isn’t careful.
Another great video Mike. Very interesting analysis, thanks so much for putting in the time and effort. In answer to your question my green faced IWC MK XX makes me very happy evey time I put it on.
Fascinating. Thanks! So as an exercise is it beyond realistic belief that it could be possible to look at someone's watch collection today, consider some key factors (production date/retail price, purchase date/purchase price to the collection, box & papers for authenticity, regular maintenance followed how often, condition, ... ) and calculate a collection liquidity measure/index? Some (pseudo)experts claim the Brand is everything but the model is far more indicative of its liquidity? One could always get the sum of the collection's average sale value on a Chrono24 but that's purely a temporal sales number.
I think yes, it would be. The “data” used to derive this “index” would be too subjective and circumstantial to be of practical value. The only true value of a thing is what it sells for. Everything else is wishful thinking.
Auctions use the following factors - Scarcity / Rarity: How many are there? - Quality: How good a product is it deemed to be? - Condition: Self explanatory - Provenance: Who owned it (was it someone special) or was it made by someone special? A current day rolex like a datejust is not scarce, not owned by anybody special. So it's price is entirely driven by perceived quality ("Rolex is good") and the condition of the specific watch. Same goes for most watches - that's why I don't see most watches as investments or art 😀
Would love to hear about AP and JLC. I understand they’re on the same trajectory. I wonder how JKC’s massive price increase after the boom will double hurt them…
I am pretty sure JLC is having a hard time at the moment. A tribue moon goes for half retail at the moment. Most Reversos do, except maybe for the new chrono reverso 😀
So basically the super rich get to wear super exclusive desirable pieces basically for free(gray market). Which makes the grail watch for us average plebs as impossible to get as Unobtainium. Great video. Cheers☮️
Yes. That coupled with - at least for the most part by Rolex ADs - selling to ‘longtime customers’, not even trying to grow their base. Pretty arrogant to think it will last forever - selling ~5% to new people seems like a no brainer. But they show no inclination to do that or kill/slow flipping by buying back grey watches, tracing them back to the worst offenders.
Amazing content as always. Would love to see the same sort of video discussing vintage pieces across these brands - if watch charts have those insights
I half agree with you because on one hand Rolex did NOT play it safe because they fired two torpedoes simultaneously into the market, the titanium Deepsea Challenge and Deepsea 18k gold. On the other hand I was easily able to find the Rokex Deepsea 18k gold with box and papers at a very slight amount over retail from a preowned dealer. Then yesterday I went to see a different dealer about the same watch since I saw his ad on Chrono24 and was curious to see if he actually had the watch. His advertised price on Chroni24 was very high but when I met up with him in the building he said the watch was not in NYC but he could get it within 4 days, but strangely he asked me if the price he quoted on Chrono24 was okay. His exact words “do you think the price is okay?” with such a look that he himself wasn’t sure if it was okay or not. However I sincerely think that the AD’s are playing games. I’m convinced that the AD’s are selling to the preowned dealers in the Diamond District in NYC, because the dealer who sold to me told me he got it from his AD. Meanwhile my name is in the list at two different AD’s and neither has called me but I now have the Deepsea 18k 😂😂😂 You’re also right that nobody cares about IWC because in the Diamond District in NYC at least 4 dealers didn’t want to buy my platinum IWC Big Pilots in mint condition with box and papers. Finally I found someone but I ended up selling it for a lot lower than I was trying to get. Even the dealer who bought it said that the IWC should actually sell for more than I got from him but he, like the other dealers also said that IWC just sits on the shelf. Same with Breitling. You’re also right by advising us to not consider watches as an investment because they really are not. They ARE commodities. Over the years I have lost huge amounts of money on each and every watch I sold or traded towards another watch. Luckily these losses were offset by me also simultaneously buying gold bullion over the years. You’re also very correct about people only working half the shifts they were used to working previously, and I’m not referring to employment specifically in the watch industry. People in other industries are having to work a second job to get the shifts back that they lost in their regular job, I don’t know how you know all this but I’m very impressed. Great video by the way.
Isn't this just a return to normalcy? I just purchased a Rolex GMT at list and sold my 2019 GMT at 28% over the current list. So at least the key Rolex models are still strong. Just not at the absurd levels of a few years ago.
This is actually great news, I've had my eye on the Hamilton Jazzmaster Face 2 Face III. I don't know what it is about that watch but I find it to be in the league of some of the most beautiful watches made imo. I did have a reserve on it last year and had an opening to purchase one in September last year but chose not to do it just to see how the economy pans out. There are 999 pieces total and MSRP was $2995.00 and I'm seeing them continuing to drop in price once it reaches my threshold I'll pull the trigger.
It's a half truth - Like I say in the video. It's likely the brand that will lose least value of most watch brands. Some may appreciate and even keep up with inflation and thereby not lose money. But it's a small minority of rolexes that meaningfully appreciate 😀
Love this episode. Really interesting data. I have to say though, the watch in my collection I most enjoy is my Tudor BB58 blue. I picked it up to commemorate a promotion and I adore it. Sometimes “boring” is exactly the right choice for you.
We seem to be going into the microbrand era, where purchasing will be more value driven and the stories behind the watches and brands will be more approachable and transparent. I also think high quality quartz will make a resurgence as many people have gotten bitten by the bug in recent years that rushed into the hobby and are just settling in to what they signed up for.
I agree with the first sentence. Not so much with quartz resurgence :) For quartz I choose g-shock. Simple, cheap, reliable. For mechanical I go with microbrands. Better value for money, better finish and materials.
My holy grail will be a Longines, with a 13.33z movement with a flyback function, hand wound, with a sapphire crystal, a 38 cms diameter, and a black on white dial, stainless steel only, with a leather / alcantara strap. Is it asking for too much?
The connectivity on these watches is not good. The bluetooth is glitchy, find my phone rarely finds anything, and the "wallet app" doesn't work at all.
I own a few Tudors, Omegas, and Rolexes. I want a Patek and an AP. I really want a couple of LF's and RD's but NONE of it is for investments. It is for my enjoyment, and to leave to my children when I'm gone to remember me and to do with them what they want. Fascinating video, confirming my thoughts about watch investment in general. Bubbles come in all variations.
Same here, instead with CASIOs and Baltanys , lol. If someone wants to gift me a rolex, cool, but I have much better uses for that money than an overpriced watch
They sell plenty of watches. Sure they’re not your cup of tea but people enjoy them. I think Rolex is bland and boring as well but if people love them, that’s cool too.
Rolex is a bit like Walker Blue. There's absolutely nothing exciting about it ... but also nothing offensive. It's expensive -- and everybody knows it. It's good, but there are objectively better choices ... unless signalling is your goal. The one possible exception with Rolex is the Sky Dweller ... there's just nothing else like it ... and it's too big.
No offense, but you just don’t understand how hype works 😅. Jordan 1’s are “boring” They were the most hyped sneaker model for three-five years depending on who you ask. AF1’s, Sambas, etc. One man’s “boring” is 100 people’s “timeless.”
Tudor just make the black bay, in a billion different variants but just it. Imo it is overhyped as a brand, quality is good and the price is competitive but 1 model is just one model. Everything else they make is over-priced and bland.
Longines? I happened to be in a pretty good watch retailers looking at the used watches which is one of my favourite things to do when i get the chance. The Longines representative was in there restocking and setting up the 2024 marketting campaign. I listened to him while browsing. The thing that surprised me was that he was saying that the prices are going to take a big jump up. Particularly the gold ones because of the rise in gold spot price, but it seemed that every model as he went through them one by one with the shop owner, was due for an increase. I found that to be very strange. I thought that prices would be stabalizing but apparently not. The shop owner was a bit worried about the number of watches that the rep was stocking in the case because he still had more than he wanted of last years models. They hadnt sold as well as exoected. He wanted more of the more reasonably priced models and less of the high priced ones. I dont know how it works when being an independent watch dealer dealing with the rep but it sure did look like the rep was in charge of what goes in the case. Every model had to be in there regardless of the dealers timid objections. I am still not sure what the deal is.
Firstly I want to thank you for your channel. I like your factual and nuanced approach and am currently looking through your video library. Regarding Tudor, as a newcomer to the watch game, I have to say that I was disappointed when I held it in my hand. The bezel of the BB58 had considerable play and didn't feel worthwhile. I liked the Omega SM300 better in direct comparison.
You should buy what you want to own, not what you want to flip. I want a Sea-Dweller 116600 because to me it's the best dive watch ever made. I know Sea-Dwellers are a horrible investment, but that's not what I want it for.
Just picked up a black dial Explorer II from my AD. Took 3 months from enquiry. They were acting cool - like they were doing me a favour - but the place was deserted when I went in. They left it just long enough to keep up the pretence of long waiting lists but I suspect that isn’t the reality.
Yeah and for years no one wanted them and they were considered by many as Rolex’s ugliest watch. Just shows the influence UA-camrs have had on the watch market and peoples opinions.
I see a lot of video who say that,perhaps happen in your country but in france i am always in waitlist for an oyster perpetual 41mm who cost 655p€ and who cost always in grey market around 8500 or 9000€,so i dont see the market down....
More buyers may be looking at CW and Tissot, rather than Longines and Tudor. Times are hard, and $4,000 isn't exactly 'good value' for majority of people.
Why is it bad? It's very good news for true collectors like us. We get rid of flippers and shady second hand dealers. It's a win, win from my perspective.
I agree. It tells manufacturers and salesmen that they have to earn our money, not vice versa. This means more innovation, better pricing, more availability. All good things. The Swiss are extremely rich, touching grass and experiencing the real world may do the industry and its players a world of good.
Not sure if i got the same message from the vid. For some models this was always true even with rolex. Doesn't mean that the company is not highly profitable. Rolex is maybe the marketing star on the entire planet. They are the epitome of what people consider ,rich' ,lurxury'. A lot of that is build around the waitlists and difficulties to get one. As long as the company makes huge profit they wouldn't sell you a panda daytona even if they had 100000 of them unsold
It is bad in the sense that the industry stagnates and there are less incentives to invest and innovate, compared to a flourishing market.
@@el_manu_el_actually, quite the opposite, a hungry industry innovates and pushes boundaries because manufacturers have sometime to prove. They need to stand out and sell, sell, sell. They got comfortable and cocky during the boom. Treating customers poorly, same boring releases with minor changes, you know the story. Now, manufactures and watch salesmen have no choice but to show some respect to their customers.
The industry is not eager to innovate. Free AI comes up with true beauty that's so easy to achieve - while they choose white gold or platinum, you kidding?.. While their websites' ENTIRE SECTIONS are BUGGED into TOTAL DYSFUNCTIONALITY
Art used to there for enjoyment, then it became an investment. A house, a place to live, now an investment. A car a means of transport, now an investment. A watch an instrument to tell the time, now an investment. Sadly, society is underinvesting in getting itself smarter. Buy the watch you like, enjoy it and if you or your heirs make money off it, consider it a gift from above.
The World is a business Mr. MJ. it has been since man crawled out of the slime.
Very well said. Sadly society today has become a monster of materialism.
@@edblair5253yes. But it shouldn’t.
It's a side effect of income inequality. It's the same reason people are becoming musicians, and Instagram influencers, everyone wants a get rich quick scheme because get rich slow schemes don't work anymore. If you work your ass off your whole life now, you'll still die in an apartment you're sharing with three people
I am glad. Sick of these absurd made of valuations, watches sitting in safes, ridiculous IMO.
Me too. I'm laughing. I dumped my Breitling, Omega, Tag and some others during the hype. I'm loving my share investments, and cheap but fun shitters like Orient Kamasu, and some microbrand stunners.
@@thegorn I wouldn't even call the Kamasu a shitter ... it puts a lot of mid-range Seikos to shame.
Those who survived the quartz crisis wont survive the smartwatch, especially because it combines with the mistreat and they disappointment of the mid-class watch lover and collector
@@halfsourlizard9319mate it is 100% a shitter, and those “mid-range Seikos” are shitters too.
The data is nice but one shouldn't mix it up with these brands being not highly profitable. If one is thinking that we are heading towards times when you could enter an AD and take a panda daytona with you or that he calls you within 3 month i only could say good luck. Another point is the data not necessarily showing the difference in between models, there were always some rolex models you could buy at list price without waiting time. Situations are so different for a 1908 compared to a sub
I'm a collector of Breitling watches. I buy them with disposable income and I have never sold a watch. I wear one everyday and it always makes me happy. When I die I will leave my collection to my two sons. This is what watch collecting is all about. I don't care about hype, resale value and investment.
So you're a supervillain?
@@bobdrooples only in my own mind
Well, you need sympathy and prayers then.
Man I thought this might be my own comment lol I had to make sure I didn’t make this comment ❤it’s definitely my thought about the whole thing too 😊
i buy them i wear them i keep them
Exactly. I buy watches to commemorate accomplishments and will cherish them for as long as I live. Sucks that scumbag flippers make it almost impossible to purchase models I've always wanted (for retail and not 3x the price).
Exactly!
Same 👍
Same here, I buy what I like and keep it. I've still got every watch I ever bought since the mid 1970s.
Buy to enjoy 😀
There's no faster way that I lose respect for anyone in the finfluencer space than when they allude to a watch being an investment or holding value.
Some do, the flintfluencers just don’t shut up about it.
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
@@dmoneydmoney6050 the issue (that I think Mike might disagree with) is that you can't predict which models/colours will hold (or especially appreciate), with uncertainty of this to be a function of time (which seems to be backed up by Mike's graphs where you see the over-demand spike at initial release and then you see a non predictable price-time decay function). I am personally suspect that this is a universal truth in the alternative investment markets space (the top gear quote from Clarkson wrt Jag E type always comes to mind).
Considering what's an investment. Like, look up Neil Patel's article about his luxurious watches. A huge problem now is these watch companies' management. 95% have their WEBSITES SO BUGGED, their contact forms are COMPLETELY DYSFUNCTIONAL. Is that anywhere near luxury!?
@@GEMSofGOD_com my prior comment seems to get auto-deleted but forward predicting what watches *might* increase or stay over retail value is a fools game. especially if you compare to traditional asset classes.
I remember when I bought my first luxury watch. I bought a Breitling Avenger Chronometer. Someone told me “Breitling doesn’t hold value in the secondary market.” My response was “I didn’t buy it to sell it. I bought it wearing.” I still wear it. Great video, per usual.
i love breitling , bought a chronomat some years ago from usa for £2k and wore and owned for about 9 years and sold
for £3k , i have since bought super ocean 46mm which with steel strap retail £4500 , managed to buy a 6 month old
as new with both steel and rubber stap + first owner extended warranty 5 years , £2800 , don't think i will loose money
and maybe in time it may make ...
i bought to wear though ( for best ) as have oris aquis , longines hydroconquest , bulova marine star ...........
That "doesn't hold value in the secondary market" statement is indicative of the investment mindset. It's everywhere (people buying/flipping luxury clothing like Prada and Gucci or Chanel and Louis Vuitton handbags). Crazy! 🙄
@@John-km9ju I hate it. I hear the same about my Grand Seiko I love. Who cares if no one would buy it off me.
Well, let's remember that this is the normal. We just went through abnormal years. All watches should dive from retail because there are loads of them and their actual value is about 1/3 of retail.
This
All watches are worth a fraction of what they sell for. It costs rolex less than 500 usd to make a submariner, they use less than 2000 usd worth of gold in an all gold watch.
@@dudewithcomedy1 there is a really interesting video on YT that shows a day date 40 has 133.7 grams of gold in it. That’s accounting already for it being 18k gold. In today’s market that is just under $10k in gold. There is more than you think in the current gold market, it’s surprising.
I still agree with what you’re saying overall btw. However the gold watches are actually more worth their price than the steel ones where the cost of the steel is likely a few bucks and the gold is harder to machine and smelt etc too as they make their own. Ironic that the steel ones sell for almost the price of gold ones in some cases on the aftermarket.
Reversion to the mean can be a real bitch.
exactly this was the norm before 2019 happened, i've talked to ADs and they all mention that retail prices of watches are always at the very least 2.5x the production cost
I buy watches to wear and I buy what appeals to me. I’m not worried about selling it later.
Yes! And those who bought into the illusion of so called investment...many of them are up to eyeballs in debt maybe.
good approach 😀
Yep
I really just want to buy a nice watch for my husband to pass on to our son someday. Hopefully I can buy a watch now at nothing over retail and without given the discriminatory glance from idiot salesman.
@@socalmom76 best to buy a luxury brand other than Rolex. Omega and Tudor are good options.
I tend to buy my watches used. My Omegas and Tudors were all purchased second hand. I bought watches that were months old by less than retail. The drop for Omega is less than for Tudor, which is indeed enormous. My anecdotes match your data perfectly. Needless to say, this is another great video. Keep up the good work.
Same I am buying seamaster and Cartier now almost 50 percent off. Used of course
Same here. I would say 90% of my luxury watches are all pre owned. I always say, if you’ve a reputable watch shop that does authentication, then let someone take the depreciation hit for you
Many years ago I picked up a navitimer b01 for ~60% of RRP... 2 months old... still had some factory seals on it. There's no way you can justify buying new in scenarios like that...
Exactly! 👍🏼 Got my Tudor for 35% less than MSRP this way.
Where is the best place to buy pre owned luxury watches? I also would love to buy the pre owned watches but the thought of getting fake scares me.
It’s not just the high end. Volumes are significantly down in the under 2k, under 1k, price segments. Justifying *another* watch purchase when you’ve got alot of them already gathering dust gets harder and harder when other expenditure takes priority.
For real
Rolex is still ridiculous. Need to look at it from 2019, as opposed to 2021.
I used this downturn to my advantage and picked up a mint BB58 blue (3 years ago it was a hype watch) for 45% off retail. For $2500 it’s one heck of a value and I love the watch.
This is the huge advantage for collectors to the downturn.
Wow. Where did you find a deal like that?
Similar case here. I bought a preown Tudor bb DK as I’ve been eyeing it for awhile now, at around SGD2.6k. Retail I check was around sgd 6-7k 😆 Of course some minor scuffs to bracelet is unavoidable, but heck I’m putting it on a rubber strap, so I could care less
@@rukkit8705 bought it used off someone who wanted another watch. Was super clean I think he hardly wore it.
I don't have that kind of money, i could not afford anything near that. many watch prices remind me of the Invicta sale on QVC. Over price the value, then discount it heavy to get people excited.
Everyone trying to act above their wage. We can tell if you’re broke l. A watch isn’t going to save you.
I have never bought a watch as an investment and I have a selection of the three brands you mentioned. But all were purchased for the memories they were associated with or, generated thru the buying experience. Whether these memories are for me, my two daughters and more importantly my three grand children. Who I hope will have that quiet smile and think of me as they tell the time many years from.
Saturday morning coffee with a new video from Mike. This is the life.
Lol... Anything to avoid chores in the house 😂
I was an old-school values investigative newspaper journalist 30 years, and this is absolute professional A1 explanatory journalism. Another fantastic piece. Thanks 🙏
High praise - much appreciated 😀😀😀😀
I have a Black Bay GMT I bought a few years ago and I love it. Never bought it as an investment and seems a little silly to buy watches hoping you make money on them. I wear mine everyday so it’s probably lost some value because of wear, but that’s why you buy them.
This is great news…anyone that buys watches as an investment isn’t a lover of watches. Genuine watch lovers moved to other less known brands while the whole instagram, the flippers push prices up. Great analysis.
Another wonderful video. Need more of these videos to just remind myself that watches are not investments but just fun toys.
Watches are definitely not investments - loss of price over time plus don’t forget the costs of selling. Buy watches because you love them.
agree 😃
Thank you for all of your great independent reviews/analysis. Great information and not a sellout like most watch youtube channels. You do not have your own store or watchbrand. You do not get free watches for reviews. Just great videos from a true enthousiast.
Keep up the good work! Hope your channel will continue to grow!
Thanks - I hope my channel continues to deliver something worth watching 😀
Fabulous. Best news I have heard all day. Consumer goods nearly always depreciate as soon as they are purchased. Cars, computers, clothes, everything. It’s only because of ‘influencers’, flippers and grey market dealers that some goods (certain watches, Berkin bags, etc) saw massive increases. I have never, ever paid more than new retail price for anything and never will. I never expect any consumer goods buy to increase in value and never regard them to be investments.
I really appreciate your intelligent and informative commentary. I'm addicted to your videos. Please keep them coming.
will try 😀
My two watches that bring me joy are my 1998 IWC Flieger Chronograph and my 1954 gold Pie Pan Constellation.
We watched similar price dynamics happen in the high end bicycle market and the guitar market. The covid boom brought about the same story of demand increases during covid, followed by brands ordering parts, followed by consumers losing interest when the lockdowns ended and people had their fill of these things.
I work in finance. This is just the beginning for many assets like watches. Buckle up.
Smart man.
Yep I've been noticing that lately things can't go up forever. Everything is overpriced from houses to cars everything is at the top right now.
I sense it too. What do you see John?
Doomers are literally always wrong
Really enjoy your commentaries and appreciate your skill at succinctly distilling a mountain of data down to clear insights.
There were articles in the local (Swiss) newspapers a few weeks ago. Tudor, Rolex and others, suppliers, etc. have and are firing temps and contracted. Strangely this week-end, the Rolex store in Geneva had a long queue of tourists which is strange because non-locals will not get anything there...
That's the thing - I spoke to some people in the industry and they confirmed that redundancies are going around 😃
You truly have the best watch channel, informative, unbiased and fair. It's interesting you bring up Adrian Barker, for me when he's not shilling his overpriced Nato Straps he's on a jolly paid for by a watch brand and then gives us his "unbiased opinion"
Stopped watching him - realized he was a phony. Talked like he was a ‘man of the people’ - but just another guy flexing his Rolexes.
@@WestCoastAce27 Couldn't agree more. He was just about ok pre- about effing time, after then I realised he's mostly just a shill, and when he's not flogging overpriced Nato straps, he's constantly taking photographs of Rolexes being splashed with water and talking nonsense.
Adrian is sadly also a bit of a knobhead who thinks he knows more then he actually does.
I feel like luxury watches social media is trending towards perfume social media where it will be nearly impossible to get an unbiased option because companys send the stuff to the big channels and even when not paid the influencers have a huuuuge interest to have a good relationship to these brands - because you want another sended perfume/watch to make more content and you want a good representation of the brand to maybe get the panda daytona finally for list price. I mean e.g i love tudor as well but they became so overhyped and you hardly find any sort of critizism whatsoever. Chunky gmt etc and they gone up in price big time
@@IrishScribbler True story!
Great video as always. Investing in watches was a silly idea born out of exceptional circumstances. Now we are having a reality check. I am enjoying a lot my Maurice Lacroix Aikon . A summer watch , elegant , versatile and very affordable, particularly in the second hand market. Cheers.
I prefer this market realty perspective. Vice biases that people have which are not based on hard cold data.
Chin chin Mike,
Chris
Great video Mike. I had a give and take on a popular watch blog about the Morgan Stanley report (specifically Tudor). It’s amazing to me how people dismiss credible data and specifically Tudors hype slowdown. Data will set you free!
numbers don't lie (but they can be manipulated) 😀
i’d really hate to think that some of those disgusting speculator flipper style people are stuck with things they can’t sell. It would be absolutely terrible if brands like IWC started suffering after their profiteering .
I really do hope that those people in the AD who looked down there nose at folk like me when I went to ask about a datejust are ok .
Well said. I’m not religious but ‘you reap what you sow’, watch version, is starting to play out.
Hear hear! I love it!
All of this warms the hearts of us enthusiasts. ❤
Tudor are the super value watches today. Quality is great and priced reasonably. 1-2 year old model on the secondary market is a true bargain.
Agree. Which is why judging Tudor by the secondary market is nonsense. They are not a watch that command more than rrp on the secondary market. That doesn’t mean the brand is struggling. Next year we will see how Tudor have done and it think they will have increased sales.
The reality is with price increases you aren't losing that much. A Tudor BB pro sells on eBay for about £2k. If 3 years old you bought it at £2670 not current retail. I recently got a GMT 2 years old for my Dad £2k. Losing this kind of money between new retail and a used piece is vastly normal, rather than a crisis. Tudor needs to know it's place. Cool brushed finish tool watches. The jubilee on the new black bay is a mess. They have been coasting for the last 5 plus years doing dial variants and black bay in different sizes. Remember all the bonkers vintage chronos at launch. So of course people are buying secondary if there is very little new in the AD, why wouldn't you?
What would really interest me is if we are finally starting to see an overall watch market decline ushered in by smart watches that was just obfuscated by the pandemic. It's become rare to see traditional watches now compared to none or Apple Watches.
I think watches were or still are a sort of counter culture to the smart watch, something people bought to express to others that they don't follow trends, something much more unique than the standard solid black chunk of glass, ironically leading to a trend of wearing traditional watches, especially mechanical watches.
Smart watches are a totally different product. They are functional and quite useful. By contrast, luxury mechanical watches are jewelry that happen to tell time.
@@ttjoseph1 Right, right - they share nothing but the name.
Even if they were ‘totally different’ the simple fact remains that people largely are only occupying one wrist so they vie for the same physical space.
@@RasenRambo23 Yup. I choose mechanical watch rather than smart watch personally but they are both good choices
It's the opposite. Before smart watches there was a giant constituency using their phones to tell the time. In other words, they had NO timekeeping device on their wrists. I'd argue that smartwatches saved mechanical watches. It is normalizing wearing watches again. For some number of people, that will translate to high end mechanical timepieces.
With the exceptions of 2-3 watches, I have always tried to buy Omega, Grand Seiko, and Tudor used or new with discount of 10-15%. At the moment, discounts from many brand ADs (with a buying history) is pretty good and buying used, esp. from Japan (think Omega and GS), is quite good in terms of pricing and room to negotiate.
Yeah, with the Yen, I bought a new GS quartz for about $500 less. saying that, I did have to pay customs like $175.
Investing in watches is silly. Buy what you like because you like it and the money is disposable. If that's a casio great. If thats a platinum tourbillion good for you.
Thank you for the excellent news for genuine watch enthusiasts.
I have yet to see any price reductions appearing at my local ADs though.
Hopefully the 2nd hand market will totally collapse shortly.
I think the point is people don’t have excess cash to buy, so even if prices are lower people can’t or are scared to make such purchases.
I believe inflation will make any real World Asset a better choice over fiat currency
It won't translate as price reductions initially it will be availablity in previously empty cabinets. I see brands like JLC really struggling unless you start to see discounts. Their recent price increases were insane.
How many used Rolex watches do you think are sitting on the second hand market at any one time worldwide ? is it possible to make a calculation or guess ? would this number be on an increase ?
A lot... 😂😂
Very interesting as always! Thanks!
I wear my boring-not-so-hype Tudor BB41 monochrome on jubilee, bought on retail price (but I don't care about its resale value as I intend to enjoy it a lot!)
Love your Chanel. I am looking for a vibrant playful holiday watch so I don’t need to take my more expensive pieces with me. Needs to be good on the beach but equally look good with a polo / linen shirt and chino shorts for dinner. Any advice?
Extraordinary analysis.. thanks mate! And yes, I love my Tudor FXD as well .. but my JLC Reverso Tribute Monoface Burgundy small seconds I like a little more. It's not as practical obviously but the design is stunning, it's dead accurate and I'm surprised by myself not being a dress watch guy how much I enjoy this rather subtle and small and comfy watch on my wrist
Oooh that Reverso must be nice.
Thanks for highlighting the valuation variations between a brand's "halo" and "non-halo" watches. Porsche 911s have the same market value phenomenon. GT models (halo cars) have big dealer markups and higher secondary market prices. A purchaser of a new base 911 is lucky to experience 4% to 6% depreciation in a year. It's all about the hype.
Bingo - spot on comparison 😃
Rolex F***ed around & Found out! Never disrespect your customers.
truth 😉
Is it Rolex or the dealers?
@@rh1617 Both.
Yes 👏🏽 But watches are consumable items, not investment vehicles.
Rolex don’t sell to customers, they sell to AD’s and AD’s sell to customers. Rolex are still selling as many watches as they always do (over 1million a year), it’s the AD’s that are struggling
Many models from Patek, AP, and Rolex still can’t be bought by just walking into an AD.
Patek and Rolex are still making additional production facilities to keep up with demand. Maybe it’s not as much as two years ago, but it’s definitely still there. The watch market has been down 25% the last two years but is still up by 30% if we look at the past 5 years.
Agree. I live in a huge US city; on the list for a non-hype Rolex at 3 ADs for over a year. No call. Near new are still commanding a 20-25% premium. Ridiculous.
Not manny people on the ‘list’ realize the flip is coming to an end. Time will tell.
Every year we get a more millionaires globally. There's no shortage of customers overall for products that are desirable. These brands in the high to ultra high end will be fine 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch
At least until the meteor hits Europe. ☄
I get that supply and demand will drive the price. What really bothers me is that some dealers won't sell you a watch even if they have it because you weren't the right person for that watch.
Come to california
The data missing that is interesting is what model is sold in what location in the world / market.
That would be an interesting perspective for sure 😃
The watch market is on a long bumpy road so buckle up! Word on the street is that Patek Philippe are making a much larger percentage of Nautilus and Aquanauts-they know these will sell even in a bad watch market. I like graphs 📊 as well Mike😎!
Bought the GMTii BLNR in 2015 at retail. Looking for an FP Journe Chronometre Bleu. Watches like cars are not investments, but a decent ways to diversify some cash and enjoy.
Just bought BB monochrome. I love it. Don’t care about market value.
Very good choice ! Top !
As it should be. Congrats
Great watch, enjoy it and you didn’t have to deal with a sleazy, fast talking grey market dealer to get it! Excellent!
Congrats. It’s the Sub for those who aren’t longtime Rolex customers and refuse to pay above retail for a mass produced watch. I have the Pelagos 39 which fills that role in my collection.
Good call 😀
Another excellent video. I buy used more often than not. I never bought into the “watches are investments”, which is constantly repeated by some UA-camr that only wear red straps and refer to themselves as the 8th wonder of the world. I feel sorry for people that fell for that. Keep up the good work.
Most mechanical devices (guns, watches) are relatively poor investments. 1) They don't perform as well as most financial "devices"such as stock or precious metals. Also, when I buy a quality gun or watch I tend to have a psychological attachment to them and that makes them more difficult to trade.
Guns and watches caught my attention - that’s my hobby money pit. I’ve found the trick is to keep both collections at three - buy smart, buy practically - and if you just have to have something, force yourself to part with one and see just how much you REALLY want the new and shiny. Pragmatism forces a stronger bond with what you already have.
This is an interesting comment. Good investing requires zero emotional attachment. Perhaps that is why some people are not as successful with guns and watches. You noted as much in your remark. Fellow gun and watch collector here, cheers.
cars are same.
@@Brownimusprime I'm there with you and add in guitars. I only have about 2 in each category that are semi high priced. In watches especially, the $500-$600 range is my sweet spot.
Hi Mike, I might have missed your comment but under current market, would you pay retail for a Tudor Black Bay Chrono?
Apparently are widely available in several ADs now.
I think the BB Chrono is reasonably priced for what you get 😀
I always love hearing your insight.
glad to hear that 😀
For your graphs, when your x-axis are dates, can you simplify it to just years or mmm-yyyy? It's so hard to read with days of the week & days of the month.
I remember last year being at a wedding in my country where i met old school mates after years. Rolexs, Omegas, etc but most of them stared at my 60s watch my grandfather gave me 😁 Atlantic Worldmaster, quite popular in the Balkans at the times but no so popular elsewhere. I love it
Very nicely done, mate. Another point to note is the cost to sell a watch (currently 6% on Chrono24) and, for more expensive pieces, insurance. The former isn't so much of a factor when holding a stock (fees are normally fractions of a percent) and the latter not at all. I feel Oisín O Malley could benefit from seeing this.. 😅
Oisín O Malley is a pompous douche!
And the depreciation because of the wear and tear of the watch. Want to sell it to a dealer? You're getting 20-30% less for the watch 😀
Oisen says a lot of dumb things
Great vid. While I take the source data (watch charts) with a grain of salt, as they trend 5-15% higher than actual selling prices on forums and C24, directionally your analysis is spot on.
True - C24 in my experience has a lot of "list prices" which are totally bananas. I personally regard them as a starting point for a negotiation, especially with dealers that just have a stock photo of the watch there. 😃
It happens that I just submitted adjusted values to my insurance for my watches this morning ... Can confirm that values have taken a nose dive ... which means lower premiums for watches that I never intend to sell anyhow!
I agree - a further example is the Rolex SD4K. Wasn’t liked, founded as boring at its time, sold for low prices and so only produced for less than 3 years… that was a good investment that time looking at the prices today.
yep what you could gather from watch charts pretty much matches what one would expectt, doesn't it? I mean who expects a Tudor do trade above retail when it's a pretty much readily available brand...also, Patek always had those hyped outliers in a otherwise solid performing to meh collection that's why those are considered hype:D
Not all of my audience has the insight you do - A lot of people assuming anything Patek and anything Rolex is going to be popular. And some even assign that logic to Tudor too - because, they're "rolex mini" 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch I see where you're coming from, and definitely don't have more insight than your average viewer I think (since you are not a superficial clickbait channel, but a deeper-digger one) ;) maybe I phrased too harshly:)
I bought a patek calantrava 3319 in 1995. Never a popular model for collectors. It cost 7500. Worth about 10 now. But I love it. When small diameter comes back into vogue, and they will, my son can have a nice heirloom.
Mike gone full on number-beast-mode with this video! Thanks for all hard work, especially with all the interpretation. This must have been a tedious video to prepare.
On occassion I enjoy using excel, so I didn't find it as mind numbing as you would think. But it's a very different kind of vid production wise - yes 😉😂😂
I bought my first Tudor in February this year. It was a 2022 Ranger and I got it for a really good price. I think Longines might take Tudor place if Tudor isn’t careful.
Another great video Mike. Very interesting analysis, thanks so much for putting in the time and effort. In answer to your question my green faced IWC MK XX makes me very happy evey time I put it on.
Well said - Great watch 😃
Fascinating. Thanks!
So as an exercise is it beyond realistic belief that it could be possible to look at someone's watch collection today, consider some key factors (production date/retail price, purchase date/purchase price to the collection, box & papers for authenticity, regular maintenance followed how often, condition, ... ) and calculate a collection liquidity measure/index?
Some (pseudo)experts claim the Brand is everything but the model is far more indicative of its liquidity? One could always get the sum of the collection's average sale value on a Chrono24 but that's purely a temporal sales number.
I think yes, it would be. The “data” used to derive this “index” would be too subjective and circumstantial to be of practical value. The only true value of a thing is what it sells for. Everything else is wishful thinking.
Auctions use the following factors
- Scarcity / Rarity: How many are there?
- Quality: How good a product is it deemed to be?
- Condition: Self explanatory
- Provenance: Who owned it (was it someone special) or was it made by someone special?
A current day rolex like a datejust is not scarce, not owned by anybody special. So it's price is entirely driven by perceived quality ("Rolex is good") and the condition of the specific watch. Same goes for most watches - that's why I don't see most watches as investments or art 😀
Would love to hear about AP and JLC. I understand they’re on the same trajectory. I wonder how JKC’s massive price increase after the boom will double hurt them…
I am pretty sure JLC is having a hard time at the moment. A tribue moon goes for half retail at the moment. Most Reversos do, except maybe for the new chrono reverso 😀
I've rarely enjoyed a watch video more. As a watch supplier, thank you for thinking of us 😊 keep up the great work.
Thanks - I've heard first hand that times are tough with some suppliers. 😀
So basically the super rich get to wear super exclusive desirable pieces basically for free(gray market). Which makes the grail watch for us average plebs as impossible to get as Unobtainium. Great video.
Cheers☮️
Yup
Yes. That coupled with - at least for the most part by Rolex ADs - selling to ‘longtime customers’, not even trying to grow their base. Pretty arrogant to think it will last forever - selling ~5% to new people seems like a no brainer. But they show no inclination to do that or kill/slow flipping by buying back grey watches, tracing them back to the worst offenders.
That is how money works.
Pretty much. Cheers 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch your honesty is refreshing. Cheers☮️
Amazing content as always.
Would love to see the same sort of video discussing vintage pieces across these brands - if watch charts have those insights
I always appreciate the market insights, Mike.
I half agree with you because on one hand Rolex did NOT play it safe because they fired two torpedoes simultaneously into the market, the titanium Deepsea Challenge and Deepsea 18k gold. On the other hand I was easily able to find the Rokex Deepsea 18k gold with box and papers at a very slight amount over retail from a preowned dealer. Then yesterday I went to see a different dealer about the same watch since I saw his ad on Chrono24 and was curious to see if he actually had the watch. His advertised price on Chroni24 was very high but when I met up with him in the building he said the watch was not in NYC but he could get it within 4 days, but strangely he asked me if the price he quoted on Chrono24 was okay. His exact words “do you think the price is okay?” with such a look that he himself wasn’t sure if it was okay or not. However I sincerely think that the AD’s are playing games. I’m convinced that the AD’s are selling to the preowned dealers in the Diamond District in NYC, because the dealer who sold to me told me he got it from his AD. Meanwhile my name is in the list at two different AD’s and neither has called me but I now have the Deepsea 18k 😂😂😂 You’re also right that nobody cares about IWC because in the Diamond District in NYC at least 4 dealers didn’t want to buy my platinum IWC Big Pilots in mint condition with box and papers. Finally I found someone but I ended up selling it for a lot lower than I was trying to get. Even the dealer who bought it said that the IWC should actually sell for more than I got from him but he, like the other dealers also said that IWC just sits on the shelf. Same with Breitling. You’re also right by advising us to not consider watches as an investment because they really are not. They ARE commodities. Over the years I have lost huge amounts of money on each and every watch I sold or traded towards another watch. Luckily these losses were offset by me also simultaneously buying gold bullion over the years. You’re also very correct about people only working half the shifts they were used to working previously, and I’m not referring to employment specifically in the watch industry. People in other industries are having to work a second job to get the shifts back that they lost in their regular job, I don’t know how you know all this but I’m very impressed. Great video by the way.
Isn't this just a return to normalcy? I just purchased a Rolex GMT at list and sold my 2019 GMT at 28% over the current list. So at least the key Rolex models are still strong. Just not at the absurd levels of a few years ago.
In part yes. As I state in the video the popular models are going to remain popular 😃
I just got off a cruise ship. I used to buy a watch with each cruise but they are no longer 15 to 20 percent discount, they are full retail.
This is actually great news, I've had my eye on the Hamilton Jazzmaster Face 2 Face III. I don't know what it is about that watch but I find it to be in the league of some of the most beautiful watches made imo.
I did have a reserve on it last year and had an opening to purchase one in September last year but chose not to do it just to see how the economy pans out.
There are 999 pieces total and MSRP was $2995.00 and I'm seeing them continuing to drop in price once it reaches my threshold I'll pull the trigger.
An old slogan "rolex is money into the safe". For a popular steel sport this means you can enjoy and don t loose money (if bought at retail).
It's a half truth - Like I say in the video. It's likely the brand that will lose least value of most watch brands. Some may appreciate and even keep up with inflation and thereby not lose money. But it's a small minority of rolexes that meaningfully appreciate 😀
Love this episode. Really interesting data. I have to say though, the watch in my collection I most enjoy is my Tudor BB58 blue. I picked it up to commemorate a promotion and I adore it. Sometimes “boring” is exactly the right choice for you.
We seem to be going into the microbrand era, where purchasing will be more value driven and the stories behind the watches and brands will be more approachable and transparent.
I also think high quality quartz will make a resurgence as many people have gotten bitten by the bug in recent years that rushed into the hobby and are just settling in to what they signed up for.
I agree with the first sentence. Not so much with quartz resurgence :)
For quartz I choose g-shock. Simple, cheap, reliable. For mechanical I go with microbrands. Better value for money, better finish and materials.
My holy grail will be a Longines, with a 13.33z movement with a flyback function, hand wound, with a sapphire crystal, a 38 cms diameter, and a black on white dial, stainless steel only, with a leather / alcantara strap. Is it asking for too much?
Try and get a Tudor BB Monochrome in the UK. Oh and Rolex aren’t back in the windows.
If you ask nicely you can walk out with a two tone datejust immediately. Also a two tone daytona 😃
The connectivity on these watches is not good. The bluetooth is glitchy, find my phone rarely finds anything, and the "wallet app" doesn't work at all.
I own a few Tudors, Omegas, and Rolexes. I want a Patek and an AP. I really want a couple of LF's and RD's but NONE of it is for investments. It is for my enjoyment, and to leave to my children when I'm gone to remember me and to do with them what they want. Fascinating video, confirming my thoughts about watch investment in general. Bubbles come in all variations.
Watches are better heirlooms than property or money from a sentimental point of view.
I completely agree 👍🏻
sold my rolexes and a tudor to fund a PP 5055G-010. Will leave one special watch rather than several mid range ones to my son.
Same here, instead with CASIOs and Baltanys , lol. If someone wants to gift me a rolex, cool, but I have much better uses for that money than an overpriced watch
Dad? Is that you?
What. A. Video.
I can’t believe how direct, data-driven, and objective this was. Thank you!
Glad it was helpful 😃
Tudor is safe n boring. Old Rolex. It was weird to b that hyped.
They sell plenty of watches. Sure they’re not your cup of tea but people enjoy them.
I think Rolex is bland and boring as well but if people love them, that’s cool too.
Rolex is a bit like Walker Blue. There's absolutely nothing exciting about it ... but also nothing offensive. It's expensive -- and everybody knows it. It's good, but there are objectively better choices ... unless signalling is your goal.
The one possible exception with Rolex is the Sky Dweller ... there's just nothing else like it ... and it's too big.
@@halfsourlizard9319 Well said--
No offense, but you just don’t understand how hype works 😅. Jordan 1’s are “boring” They were the most hyped sneaker model for three-five years depending on who you ask. AF1’s, Sambas, etc. One man’s “boring” is 100 people’s “timeless.”
Tudor just make the black bay, in a billion different variants but just it. Imo it is overhyped as a brand, quality is good and the price is competitive but 1 model is just one model. Everything else they make is over-priced and bland.
Longines? I happened to be in a pretty good watch retailers looking at the used watches which is one of my favourite things to do when i get the chance.
The Longines representative was in there restocking and setting up the 2024 marketting campaign.
I listened to him while browsing. The thing that surprised me was that he was saying that the prices are going to take a big jump up.
Particularly the gold ones because of the rise in gold spot price, but it seemed that every model as he went through them one by one with the shop owner, was due for an increase.
I found that to be very strange.
I thought that prices would be stabalizing but apparently not.
The shop owner was a bit worried about the number of watches that the rep was stocking in the case because he still had more than he wanted of last years models.
They hadnt sold as well as exoected. He wanted more of the more reasonably priced models and less of the high priced ones.
I dont know how it works when being an independent watch dealer dealing with the rep but it sure did look like the rep was in charge of what goes in the case. Every model had to be in there regardless of the dealers timid objections.
I am still not sure what the deal is.
buy OMEGA only or Grand Seiko at these prices. Don't get ripped off because of the Brand name.
I literally just bought both of those. SMP300 and a "Skyflake" hahaha
I got the skyflake for 40% off if you can believe it.
Firstly I want to thank you for your channel. I like your factual and nuanced approach and am currently looking through your video library. Regarding Tudor, as a newcomer to the watch game, I have to say that I was disappointed when I held it in my hand. The bezel of the BB58 had considerable play and didn't feel worthwhile. I liked the Omega SM300 better in direct comparison.
You should buy what you want to own, not what you want to flip.
I want a Sea-Dweller 116600 because to me it's the best dive watch ever made. I know Sea-Dwellers are a horrible investment, but that's not what I want it for.
Love the SD4K
Sd4 k the jewel in the rolex crown, and theirs not many ❤
James Cameron for me. Almost unwearable on me, but I do like it 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Same here. The 126660 with the D-Blue dial was my grail until I tried it on. It looks ridiculous in me.
Do they keep more accurate time than my Casio? 15 seconds fast per month.
And congrats for your 40k, Mike! Mike
Thanks a ton 😃😃😃
I just got a 126660 and I wore it for a couple of hours and I forgot to have it on my wrist. It wears perfectly on a 7.5 inch wrist!
Best watch channel ! Thanks for all your work and videos
Thanks for watching 😀
I went for a Rolex but with no joy I ended up buying a Tudor Royal 38mm with diamonds, beautiful watch absolutely love it.
Good news!
true 😀
Just picked up a black dial Explorer II from my AD. Took 3 months from enquiry. They were acting cool - like they were doing me a favour - but the place was deserted when I went in. They left it just long enough to keep up the pretence of long waiting lists but I suspect that isn’t the reality.
Just try and get your hands on a Rolex Explorer II Polar - you'll be waiting years. The black dial version is more obtainable.
Yeah and for years no one wanted them and they were considered by many as Rolex’s ugliest watch. Just shows the influence UA-camrs have had on the watch market and peoples opinions.
In ten years there will only be two or three valuable rolexes, and it will be the same boring steel watches they always have been
I see a lot of video who say that,perhaps happen in your country but in france i am always in waitlist for an oyster perpetual 41mm who cost 655p€ and who cost always in grey market around 8500 or 9000€,so i dont see the market down....
Most watches shouldn't be bought at retail unless with a 20-30% discount
So, under retail. Agree.
Agreed, but the retailers still sell for massive prices.
I'd quite like a blue BB58. Am i better off buying a refurb from an AD?
More buyers may be looking at CW and Tissot, rather than Longines and Tudor. Times are hard, and $4,000 isn't exactly 'good value' for majority of people.
True. I’m considering buying a Tissot Gentleman.
You can get a really nice Longines for far less than 4000. Tissot is killing it in Europe right now.
Agree on this - CW is fast becoming the "value" choice for a lot of people 😀