Foreign Relations & China
Вставка
- Опубліковано 2 вер 2023
- Former Australian diplomat John Fowler joins Mike Benitez to unpack international relations. What is it? Why does it matter? Why is China being so ambitious? What are they doing in South America? How’s a Taiwan invasion looking? All that and more!
For those who like #military #technology #strategy #diplomacy
----
Links
• Sign up for the Merge’s amazing newsletter! www.themerge.co/
• Support us on Patreon! / the_merge
• Mike Benitez LinkedIn / mike-benitez
• International Intrigue newsletter www.internationalintrigue.io/
• X / intintrigue
----
Follow us on...
• Instagram / merge_newsletter
• Facebook / themergenews
• X / mergenewsletter
• LinkedIn / themerge
• Website www.themerge.co/
----
Show Notes
(01:28) intro
(04:35) what is diplomacy?
(09:31) military connection
(13:27) Monroe Doctrine
(21:19) changing view on China
(22:52) Belt & Road Initiative
(26:54) BRI in Latin America
(30:34) Davidson Window
(33:52) Ukraine’s impact on China
(43:18) impact of decoupling chip industry
(46:26) US policy on Taiwan
(52:00) outro
I really hope youtube starts to push your vids into the algorithm more. Such great content. Deserves more subscribers!!!
Mike - John was great. Please have him back and talk more about China and western pacific politics.
Yep, bummed this ended. Do more ASAP. Thanks!
I'd like to hear more about countries relationships around the south china sea, and the east china sea. Who's on the fence, who leans China and who leans Western order. For example Indonesia recently ordered new F-15s and the Phillipines are expanding US naval access but are they bough in on Taiwanese defense? Thanks for the great content!
Great sequel idea!
The Merge is my favorite podcast, hands down.
Love the merge paco...you're a lock for the moochie this year as well!
😂
I found you through Ward Carroll. Love your stuff! I voted for you to get the Moochie Award.
Just signed up for John’s output, and I think i will like it.
It would be interesting to hear you expand on "take our bad designs." Would be great to hear from experts about jets etc superficially looking like ours, and whether they're improved or missing crucial subsystems or what.
On the chips issue.
The Chinese capturing the machines and personal that make chips would not directly translate into them gaining that ability to make high-end chips. TSMC only makes chips it doesn't design them or make the machines that make the chips.
The machines that make the chips are only from seven companies. All of them are in the USA, Europe, Japan. These machines require daily updates from the manufacturer and can be bricked. There are over 100,000 components (not including subcomponents of components) in the machines. It's one if the most complicated supply chains in the world for some of the most complex machines ever built.
The low-end and mid-level chips that China makes all use machines made by the USA or its allies. These machines were/are run by foreigners. The export controls put restrictions on USA persons in the development or production of chips in China. The default is no, you have to try and get an exemption.
China has been trying to make their versions of these machines. It has not gone well after billions spent for over a decade. China can make small batches of high-end chips in a laboratory but at scale it's a whole other ball game.
The world best high purity quartz for silicon almost exclusively comes from North Carolina.
The USA and it's allies control the key nodes required for mid/high-end chip production and development.
Fascinating discussion! Please have John back.
For sure!
Excellent!
Really enjoyed this. Maybe I even learned something. Thanks 👍PAKO
Would definitely like to hear more about the way in which China has spread its influence in the south Pacific. Did for example, the last administrations pulling out of unrestricted trade deals with countries like New Zealand, open the door for further economic net casting and political influence among smaller nations there, and cause increased friction for traditional players like Australia in the region.
Great conversation. I'd love to hear a conversation about the expected impact of the demographic collapse of the working age in China and decrease in population. One could argue, that they will not be able to continue their economy as their workforce sharply decreases combined with large debts.
The second major question is the effectiveness of one man rule when there are no balancing or properly advisory voices. It can be expected that it would be an ineffective way of governing in the modern world and small mistakes or untimely decisions will be amplified to catastrophic results, more likely.
Great segment; I learned a TON! For a sequel I'd like to hear your opinions on China's aging population and those implications, and how the other players in the western pacific are working (or not working) together to maintain the stability of the region.
Great topic
Isolationism re: Europe, Africa and Asia was the equally important aspect of the Monroe Doctrine. And we largely stuck to that, with some notable exceptions in East Asia, until after WWII.
I would like to hear about international foreign relations and the Ukraine conflict. All of it , including USA, UK, EU countries then China, African countries, South American countries etc
I was in Hong Kong before and after the return to China. It exemplifies the oppression of the two governments. Before transfer streets were full of cars and the sidewalks easy to walk. After transfer the streets were open and the sidewalks are full, big difference being I tried to avoid running into other people but since it didn't matter to them I started to walk through them like they did. Running into other people is normal I found less humanity for the other person. Hong Kong was a nicer place to walk in 97 as opposed to 98.
Very captivating discussion, really enjoyed it. Looking forward to more.
Glad you enjoyed it!
As far as I know, the Monroe doctrine didn’t dictate that European powers are not allowed to sail in the Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico
Newsletter is great and love the vids. Keep up the great work!
Thanks!
@@TheMergeMedia Just signed up for the Intrigue newsletter. Great convo from both of you. I don't want to direct the next conversation, but I'm looking forward to whatever it is.
Another very interesting and informative discussion! Thanks!!
BRICS would be an interesting future topic.
Great suggestion
I would like to hear your views on the economic progress of China particularly manufacturing and the evolving parallel evolution of India in that respect.
Mike, You continue to thread the needle and your podcast with John was just the tip of the iceberg. When you have John on again, please spend some time on China's island building in the South China Sea and converting them into military bases. I think their intentions are clear, but am interested in John's and your opinion.
Great idea!
I don’t suppose the TSMC would survive an invasion for very long. Said another way, I think we would target it before we gave it up.
I think the short term cost of attempting to defend to Taiwan is less than the longer term cost of not defending it, and it is incumbent that we convince the CCP we believe that.
next topic for John Fowler and the Intrigue - Israel/Palestine!
The US will continue to support Tywan tooth and nail until we are not dependent on TSMC as noted ~44min. The people of Tywan are great, and VERY ANTI CCP like ants don't like anteaters. The scramble to build top-tear chips must be finished before 2045.
Comment for algo
19:18 lol, so it's not hypocritical?
Xi didn’t start all this because the CCP needed to justify its relevance (half of the CCP was opposed to Xi’s plans). He did it as part of a process to purge all internal opponents.
'Strong' is Chinese propaganda. China was strong against what?
By 'China' we Chinese people usually refer to the time period ruled by the Han ethnic group. We(ethnic Han) call the neighboring groups 'Manyi' (savages). Ironically various Han-led dynasties were conquered many times throughout history by various neighboring groups, like the Xiongnu, the Qiang, the Mongols, the Jerchens, etc etc, which led to the eventual collapses of Han, Tang, Song, and Ming dynasties. However, the subsequent dynasties led by Manyi were the ones who expanded the territory. And that's how China reached its massive size today(inherited its territory from parts of the Qing dynasty, and 1/3 of that got gobbled up by CCP's dear daddy, Russia lol).
I don't ever think I've read about any successful expeditionary military conquests from the Han-led forces in history. (probably due to the lack of deep water navigation technologies)
A lot of Chinese would argue that it's because the Chinese people are benevolent and peaceful in nature. Well, China is operating modern ships now. Does the PLAN seem benevolent and peaceful lol?
Boring 😑 convo.
At the 26:20 min mark Mr Fowler mentions how China can green light infra-structure because "....it doesn't have pesky things like Senate approval...". The first thing that jumped out to me regarding Australia and the USA is high speed rail. I grew up in Australia before moving to Ukraine a decade ago, and the Australians have been trying to build high speed rail for like over 50 years and they still don't have it, due to endless political bickering. The USA is not much better, it has the Amtrak Acela which runs on 80km (50 miles) of track! Cali might get one soon but who knows. Meanwhile China in the last 3 decades has built over 30 high speed rail networks criss crossing the entire country covering 42,000 km (26,000 miles)!!!! To use an Aussie idiom only Mr Fowler can explain to you, it's time for the USA and Australia to get "fair dinkum" about high speed rail! 🙃🚅