I like the comparison. My only comment would be that Exaggerator was winding down towards the wire. This might effect final MPH. Also breeding has something to do with going a 1 1/4. Keep up the videos.
+Fernando Ponce The Santa Anita Derby track was slower than at Gulfstream as was the Wood Memorial's surface. Instead of using real time, experts have devised ways of comparing tracks by using speed figures. Often the slower time will produce a higher speed figure. For example, Exaggerator got a 102 BRIS figure while Nyquist got only a 98. Outwork got a 96 even though it was the slowest real time for the Wood ever.
What a nice price on the Exacta for these two horses finishing 1-2. A longer race may benefit Exaggerator in the Belmont. I think the turns at Pimlico benefit Nyquist in the Preakness. Subbed.
Jay, funny that you should mention such a memory. This morning is was driving down the road and apropos of nothing I remembered a horse that I used to rub on. The absolute smartest horse that I ever encountered. Cheap claimer, bad legs, but just one of those that move you. Listen, I just did a little reading up on you. Very fascinating. Would love to speak with you some time. Dave
+Dave Dancyger Dancyger YOu can leave a message by clicking on my name just beloe the video window next to the little thumbnail photo. Then click on "about" and then click "send message". I'd be happy to chat
Going to be like two races in one in the Kentucky Derby. All the sprinters on one side, and the closers on the other. Doug O'Neill trains like they train in Ireland.
nice system that's the wrong word . very helpful tool. Danny I think you can compare west to east and different tracks because he converting into mph . I have been doing this for years but with the last quarter mile split and not converting in mph , converting brings it to a new level
My first Derby was 1962. You can analyze til the cows come home, and in the end there are just too many variables. It all comes down a 50/50 proposition {half best horse, half pure luck} and you must have them both to see your horse wearing the roses. Best of luck.
+papawx3 IRON LEIGE 57 TIM TAM WAS MY FIRST WINNER, iT'S A 50/50 WHETHER IT'LL RAIN ON DERBY DAY A HORSE THAT LIKES SLOP IS A BIG PLUSiF iT RAINS!. LUCK PLAYS A BIG PART ON POST POS. AND WHETHER OR NOT SPEED HORSE DRAWS BUNCH THE INSIDE ITS NCALLED TRAFFIC THEN A JOCKEY LIKE CALVIN IS A BIG PLUS. IF IT COMES DOWN TO TWO HORSES FOR ME ITS ALWAYS WEATHER STRIDE DI AND X THE MORE VARIABLES YOU PUT IN THE BETTER YOUR CHANCE OF THE PICK. iT'S SORTA LIKE MONEYBALL
Jay - Just great to see the number of horse peeps coming here to your site. Seems Mike Smith was given the instructions to ride his mount here ala his patented filly style Songbird; even though it came up mud. So get out, get to the mile and finish up the paper work for the last furlong. Like you said Mother Nature's resistance and ten pounds of horse tail mud. Plus the winner had won on the wet loam. Most point races this year seem to me (like Mohaymen's / Shagaf and more) let the field go out, pass em at six and nobody has much distance or closing left. And with many of the others watched who will be in the Kentucky Derby. IMHO, my key Delta horse for plays in the Derby, Nyquist will be no where in the significant race calls until about the 7.5 furlongs to a mile (normal track conditions). Especially as Nyquist and jockey Mario will be the runner with the target on his back. Mario just needs to watch the jock on 2012 Derby winner I'll Have Another's Derby for best trip example.
A couple things I noticed. Nyquist got pretty easy fractions for that caliber of horse on a track that looked much better. Exaggerator got a worse track and if you noticed in the last 150 yards or so he shut down the horse and even put the brakes on. Nyquist was still hand riding the horse.
Cool. Just gotta remember that different tracks are faster or slower than others. Should be a great race! Just hoping Songbird does great in the Oaks so that maybe she'll race the boys in the Preakness.
This was an awesome analysis. Been watching american horse racing since 3 years now and this analysis was pretty unique. Nyquist is definitely better based on what has happened so far. Its gonna be an exciting derby. 20 horses and who knows what the track conditions will be. But the champion horses that have won over the years are the ones that have the guts to overcome everything including bad trips. They look into the eyes of their rivals and pull away in stylish performances. Nyquist has that touch of class. Lets see what happens.
+Ethan Mohaymen was sold for several million more, but money does not always equate to class. IMO Nyquist pulled away because Mohaymen was forced to run much farther around the turn. Did you see the live race? If you did, you will notice Majesto was far ahead of them all rounding the turn after the race, at about the 1 1/4 mark which is the distance of the Kentucky Derby.
Take a look at the aerial view and jockey view of the Florida Derby on Trakus on the Gulfstream website. I'd love to hear what you think it's usefulness because you can so clearly see what you're referring to here.
Jay C. Nehf Thanks. I will try to locate the Gulfstream website.I found it and it showed what I expected. Mohaymen was by far the widest throughout until the final stretch. He was about five wide around the first turn and at least three wide around the second. I wonder how much farther he traveled. I had heard it was many feet but I cannot remember the exact figure.It ends at the finish and does not show the gallop out where Majesto zipped far ahead after the race going around the turn. This was mentioned on Bloodhorse in The Derby Dozen by the moderator as well.
Paige Wheat Well i dont live in the states so I watch the replays on youtube :) I guess its amazing to watch it live. I believe you raise a valid point. I have been following the triple crown since 2013 so Im pretty fresh to it all.
Hi Jay, My name is Doug and I want to thank you so much!! I watched one of your videos on Nyquist and bet on him and made a lot of money. Wondering if there is a way I could follow on future races I hope:)
Well you identified #1 and #2 in the Derby quite accurately. I think Nyquist should also beat Exagerrator in the Preakness, but the Belmont may prove another kettle of fish.
+Ecky Thimble Yes, the Belmont is going to be a really great race. I'll have to do some serious thinking about how that will play out. Should be interesting.
I haven't really taken a hard look yet. It should be a much smaller field with perhaps some new faces. Nyquist won't be as fresh. So, no, it will be a different kettle of fish. Will Exaggerator skip it and show up for the Belmont in real fighting form and a new plan? The Preakness is greatly underrated as a key component of the making of champions. The Triple Crown would be much weakened if the Preakness was moved to a different date or skipped by too many good contenders. What would Affirmed and Alydar 's historic rivalry be without the Preakness there to make the Belmont all the more difficult?
Nice analysis...but meh. You can't compare the two based on the Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby. Two different tracks, opposites ends of the spectrum in track conditions, and despite all the max speeds and final speeds that you mention here...in the end, Nyquist, on a good track, was only .3 faster than Exaggerator on a major sloppy track. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying it's not the most fair comparison.
+Danny Kaye my analysis is really just a starting point with the Trakus info providing an alternatve view of performance. All of these comments, yours included, demonstrate quite clearly just how complex, and fascinating, the sport is. I have really enjoyed stimulating racing fans like you to speak up and present a different point of view. As a horseman, thanks for being an enthusiastic fan. So far, it's a great Triple Crown year and it isn't even May!
As you said the speeds from Gulfstream were close to 50mph. Someone else said that Gulfstream is a fast track and the numbers were accurate. They are not accurate.
+Biting Mongeese - Geoffrey Bynoe Oh that! I talked to Trakus on the phone and they were quite chagrined about the mix up. 50 mph is far, far beyond reality. Thanks for clearing that up. You guys are too sharp to ignore when you mention things like "BS numbers..." I start thinking what the heck have I missed.
Good morning too you Jay C. Nehf. I saw Mor Spirit Breeze yesterday with company and he looked pretty good at Churchill Downs yesterday. Unfortunate when I look when I went to look up the video this morning of the work they did not have it on their list if you did see his work what did you think of it and what are his chances of hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby you know the last couple years says he has to look like a Derby winner no longer tender if you could get back to me I greatly appreciate it thank you have a nice day good-bye.
+william b Wheaton Hi WIlliam, I looked on Equineline.com and they have Mor Spirit working 5f in :59.8 today. If you haven't tred Equineline, take a look, it's got a lot of great info. BAffert's horses are always dangerous and Gary Stevens is no fool. If anything goes wrong with Nyquist or the others close to the pace, Stevens will find a way to take advantage of it and Mor Spirit gives him plenty of horse to work with.
Hey Jay Maurice again. crushed it at the derby and I'd like to tell you your veiwers who I believe will superfecta and hi5 in the Preakness. I just need one question awnserd from a pro like yourself. Who are the 5 horses in this race who besides Nyquist ran well in the slop? I have exggerator and lani in my memory bank
+Maurice Alexander New video on that! Check out Stradivari, won on "good" track at Gulfstream just like Nyquist in the Fl Derby. 90% chance of rain for Preakness!
First Beyer Speed Figures or Time forms and now this! They are not numbers. They are horses. Bob Baffert, who trained American Pharoah, had each trainer stand up one at a time and be applauded at the annual trainer's dinner, where he was honoured with "Trainer Of The Year." Then he said, "One of you in this room is the 2016 Kentucky Derby winning trainer." ANY OF THOSE TWENTY CAN WIN. IT's not just about track bias, jockeys or even breeding. It takes being in the right place when the race is done.
Yep! Now I read Nyquist did not ship to Belmont because he "Spiked a fever of 102." (Blood-Horse) That's a spike? A horse's normal temperature is between 99 and 101. Stress and excitement can raise it. Didn't he just lose a big race? :-)
Hey Jay, could you do an analysis on Fellowship? I like him but I saw he ran 14 feet shorter than Nyquist, although he ran only .4 mph slower than Nyquist. Does he have a legitimate chance? He's good around traffic, which is what I really favor with him. Given Mohaymen did not run from the back of the pack like Fellowship, maybe Mohaymen is better. I'm not sure.
Mr. Nehf, I really enjoy your interesting and expertised video's on pre-derby analises. There is a lot to do about Nyquist. It's rare that a horse goes to the Derby undefeated. But that is also competition and "luck" related. But in your opinion, where is Nyquist standing compared to California Chrome and American Pharoah at the end of their Derby-preps ? I think that would be a more then interesting analyse. I have some doubts about Nyquist's stamina. I have some feeling that if they would run in the same year CC would win the Derby, Nyquist the Preakness (more speed, less distance) and AP the Belmont ( greater stamina ). What is your opinion?
+Ivan Mees Actually, that's a pretty good analysis. CC is an amazing horse and I too rate him a notch higher than Nyquist and AP. Also, your idea of comparing the preps is a good one but I don't think I'll have time to do it before the Derby. I want to take a look at the jockeys, a factor which no one seems to be thinking much about.
+Jay C. Nehf I agree with you about CC being better than AP. AP benefited by not having much speed in his races and when Frosted socked it to him in the Travers he could not hold off a fair but not great Keen Ice. Speaking of Jockeys, Espinoza just got named to be on Whitmore. I am sure this will ruin Espinosa's streak of winning Triple Crown races. (He has five of the last six wins).
Jay C. Nehf I just read a report from The Lexington Herald Leader about Mohaymen's "WOW!" work Wednesday. They have done some tweaking since Florida including putting on glue-on shoes and he really skipped over the Churchill surface. McLaughlin said he hardly took a deep breath and only a sip of water. Tom Amoss was upset that Mo Tom went too fast.
+Jay C. Nehf Yes, everyone would agree on that... but.... Whitmore reminds me a little bit of Mine that Bird - a pedigree designed for distance, not the horse to expect, no glamour-boy, but a relyable guy, who don't give up easily. A perfect Upset, and with Victor aboard... he can get the best out of any horse. In a "dirty" derby I would give them a real chance. If everyone focusses the race on Nyquist and he fails at the end, it could be 2009 all over again...
well. .you were right. Exagerator did his typical rush....but didn't have enough track and if you look..more last 50yrds Nyquist picks Exagerator up and it appears Exagerator stalls out. it will be interesting to see with a less loaded track at the Preakness or Belmont if Exagerator can steal one.
+Lori Colvin I only scratched the surface. Much of what we observe we misinterpret, much is missed altogether and I beg to differ- it's complicated. But as a trainer/owner, these details as they regard my own horses can make the difference between steak dinner or Ramen noodles! So I guess I look at things a little differently than most handicappers would.
+Eiran Israel Hmmm... Ok, you're not the only one looking at Destin! I hope these videos will help you learn to read the Trakus charts. I think they open up a whole new understanding of how a race unfolds and each horse performs. You'll be training horses with Baffert and O'Neill in no time.
What happens when you factor in the extra weight the Santa Anita Derby Horses were carrying. At the finish Nyquist' tail is straight out while Exaggerator's is straight down. At the final 1/4 mile, using your 10 lb theory, Exaggerator was carrying 133+ lbs while nyquist was carrying 123. I am inclined to believe that extra weight. was the reason for the higher Beyer. Another thing to consider is the jockey's post race weight. There was probably mud all over him and maybe even inside his boots.
When you calculated the average speed of Exaggerator's final furlong did you take into account he was geared down? As opposed to Nyquist who was ridden out?
Your analysis of Nyquist in the Florida Derby vs. Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby is missing two key things. You did not state the Finish Times nor the Beyers at 1 mile 1/8 for both horses in these perspective races. Had you, you would have told your audience that Nyquist ran the Florida Derby in 1:49.11 in perfect conditions with a beyer of 94 while Exaggerator ran the Santa Anita Derby in sloppy conditions in 1:49.66 with a beyer of 103. Please explain how Nyquist is the horse to beat?
+Travis L. Ah, ah, ah... Fl Derby track was listed "Good", not "Fast". And I do not give Beyer numbers credibility. If you look at the way they came up with their system, there are a lot of arbitrary assumptions. Finish times in my opinion are not as informative as finishing speed. But these are just my opinions. Believe it or not, I'm not trying to defend my Derby pick, I'm just making some observations and Holy Cow has it started a conversation! Honestly, I had no idea it would get these responses and they have been smart, well informed and creative, including yours. Thanks for joining in.
What about Creator and Suddenbreakingnews? What's missing from this analysis is that Nyquist was able to control the pace and have his way. That's not likely to happen in the Derby. If there's the typical speed dual scenarios on the front end, we'll have at least three last to first deep closers (remember: Street Sense, Mine That Bird, Strike The Gold, and Ferdinand)...I think we are going to see pretty much all the speed collapse, and the deep closers will prevail.
+Michael Dominici yes BUT! as I replied earlier, Nyquist has been very manageable on or near the lead and his ability to get to the front quickly (his top speed has been close to 43 mph), then settle in where Mario wants him, could put him right where he needs to be in the final 1/4. But you're absolutely right; anything can, and probably will, happen.
+Jay C. Nehf This 'genius' analysis is helpful to a degree. When we look at races we see what we see, but we don't always know the numbers and the figures. This type of analysis is a valuable tool as far as not letting yourself get tricked just because a horse like Exaggerator 'appears' to be flying home down the stretch, etc. when the numbers/fractions tell a different story. Fair enough, but again there are many more scenarios than this and the more important issue is stamina and the ability to finish strong. Remember that Zenyatta's numbers looked pretty tepid on paper in both Breeder's Cup races for instance, and she finished with a furious rush. To me, the most important aspect of the Kentucky Derby is finding a horse with true grit, and heart. Street Sense, American Pharoah, Ferdinand, Charismatic, I'll Have Another, Silver Charm, Strike The Gold, and Thunder Gulch in particular are just a few that had the qualities it takes beyond various figures and formulas that put them in the winner's circle on Derby day.
LOL! Genius?!? You're absolutely right. These numbers tell us one thing: at that time in that place the horse went that fast, or whatever number you're looking at. The numbers don't tell you just how much effort that horse was making when he posted that number. Nor does it tell you what it was thinking; angry, sore, scared, bored. For my handicapping, the one factor that weighs most heavily is something I haven't mentioned at all: physical appearance. There's just no substitute for being in the physical presence of the horses and comparing them as they walk around the parade ring. But that isn't going to happen for most of us come Derby Day.
+Michael Dominici American Pharoah lost the only two times he had a serious fight for the lead. In the Preakness Baffert instructed Martinez, apparently, to let AP go by Dortmund which he also trained, and then to use Dortmund to make other horses have to go wide around him. If Liam's Map or Beholder had raced in the Classic, AP would have been beaten, IMO. If you think this is far fetched, note how Baffert's horse won the 2014 BCC.
Yes Nyquist has won the Kentucky, but Exaggerator could really get the Belmont, maybe not the Preakness, but Exaggerator really has a lot of stamina. Nyquist was definitely tiring in the last furlong.
Exactly, the pace in the Kentucky Derby was very fast. With the Preakness being a shorter race, I would of thought Exaggerator's owner and trainer would of skipped the race and looked to run him in the Belmont, where his closing style would benefit him.
+miley olsen It going to depend on the pace. They got away with a fast pace in the Derby, but it blew up on them in the Preakness. If Nyquist runs in the Belmont I'll bet you they'll change their strategy, and try to keep the opening quarters much slower. What we need to see is what if any kind of rabbits will be in the Belmont and if Nyquist's jockey will make a better effort to rate the horse!
+Jay C. Nehf The concept was right, it just came one race early. I truly expected this to happen in the Belmont after I saw the fractional times in the Derby. Nyquist looked gassed at the end of the Derby. I just figured that with the Preakness being a shorter race, Nyquist would run a similar race to the Derby and hold off Exaggerator. I guess the sloppy track made the difference. I never thought the jockeys would send there horses out so fast In the slop. One because it would tire the horses faster, and two just for the safety concerns. Perhaps someone who knows horses well can comment on what difficulty horse have when running a wet track, verse a dry track?
+Bob G Free!!!! Not every track has it (Fairgrounds doesn't) but most of the majors do. Unfortunately, it can be hard to find on the tracks' websites. Santa Anita is under "interactive". You can usually find it easier by just googling "Gulfstream Trakus" for example and it should take you right to it.
the coefficient of friction, aerodynamic drag, is virtually meaningless at these comparative speeds. the only time that is ever considered is if the horses are running into a strong headwind where a difference can be multiplied.
+Kevin Potts I beg to differ. It's basically the same as bicycle racing in which every tiny advantage counts. Several years ago someone did a study on aerodynamic silks and claimed that they can give you a 6 foot advantage over conventional silks at the wire in a 6f race. They cost twice as much but I got them. Hard to believe so many stables don't have them.
Jay C. Nehf Mayhaps I worded my comment wrongly. To me, when handicapping, I treat it as virtually meaningless. That doesn't mean that I always ignore it. Certainly if there is a headwind on the backstretch that certainly plays to how I note the race in my notebook, especially if a front runner fades in the last quarter of a mile or less race here at Churchill. No offense was intended.
Kevin Potts Do not apologize! No offense taken. I'd be disappointed if all of you guys agreed with me! Few people even consider aerodynamics in racing. There was an article in North American trainer magazine about all these tiny things you can do and now they have a name for it: "marginal gains".
The Derby as I envision...... Nyquist will hit a brick wall at the 1/8th pole, just as his granddaddy did in 1998 (Indian Chuck). Mor Spirit (who already passed him at the top of the stretch) will hold on, fending off a late challenge from a deep closer (don't know who). Gary Stevens will win his 4th Derby, being the second oldest jockey to win the Derby, and Baffert will win his 5th Derby, 2nd in a row.
+MrFinsforlife I'll eat some crow. I'm no moron though. We'll see how he handles the two week turnaround. I'll almost promise he won't stretch out to a mile-and-one half, not with his dams side (Forestry).
that is sound thinking but this horse is defying reason. He should have spit the bit after 9f at that pace. Is it O'Neill's better, updated conditioning?
I thought the fact that Mohaymen maintained his speed was interesting. He ran a bad race but maybe it wasn't as bad as it first looked and I'm sure he will get over looked on derby day
+indiablackwell Thunder Gulch did the same thing in his final prep race.... After 2 hugh duel stretch runs between he and Suave Prospect, with TG winning both, he just ran along, never touched by the jockey, and ran 4th behind SP.... Just a workout prior to TKD... TG won the Derby and Belmont that year. Made me some serious $.....
I get that it was a workout, but it doesn't mean that they're gonna push the horse as hard as a race, maybe they should've made him have a longer workout since he was done with 3.5 furlongs left in the race
+andrew papastefan "I never saw the Race and I still haven't since I don't have TV. IF Smith had the lead for six furlongs, that should tell him to slow the field down and the others would still have followed then kicked again with still two to go. I saw the French do the same thing with Xzar and he won that day
well what mr.wizard fails to mention is nyquist ran on a FAST track,and exaggerator ran the same distance 1 second slower in the MUD.watch out for gunrunner,he could be the upset.
+bob harris Mr. Wizard points out that the official track condition for the Florida Derby was "Good" and rated slower than the SA Derby track , rated "sloppy/sealed" which is very fast. But yes, Gun Runner's making me very nervous.
Sounds like O'Neill was using a form of interval training? Well, Nyquist won the Derby so more power to him; but O'Neill's stable breakdown rate is too high for me. I'd hire someone else.
+hay lalala That's the difference, "average speed". The Trakus number is a "peak speed" referring to a single point during the race and is captured by a system of radio transmitters, one on each horse, and receivers placed at certain points around the track and it's very accurate. It was not available when Secretariat raced.
+Hovey2229 I can't get excited about him. He's been beaten by horses which have been beaten by better horses. But that was then and this is now. He kinda nags me in the back of my mind. Is that vague enough for you? LOL
Horses are herd animals. The other horses are afraid to pass Nyquist. Watch Nyquist look at Mohaymen in the Florida derby. once he looked at him - Mohaymen dropped back. Respect.
+Joe Brunner Joe, you have no idea how right you are! I just sold a horse that breeezed in :47 at Santa Anita and refused to pass the horse on the lead. Seas Courage is running in Ohio and has 2 or 3 2nds and 4 thirds but will not win.
Jay C. Nehf i'm just guessing but at the top of the stretch in the florida derby - when the announcer says "bi-coastal rivalry" nyquist is CLEARLY turning his head to look back at Mohaymen. freaked me out
+Joe Brunner Horses do NOT turn their heads to see opponents who are beside them because their eyes are more to the sides of their heads than ours and their peripheral vision is much greater. Mohaymen had to run on the outside and was travelling much farther than Nyquist. If he had not lost all that ground he would have been the winner.
"If you use your head a little bit," you will see that Exaggerator was carrying a lot more mud in his tail than Nyquist. You will also see that Exaggerator came from far back and sustained a much farther run. Nyquist may be training longer distances but If you compare their BRIS speed ratings, Exaggerator has 102, 101, 101, and 103 in his last four while Nyquist has 97, 103, 97 and 96. That 103 looks the best but it was in a 7f race. Nyquist's only other time breaking 100 was 102 in a six and a half furlong race. Exaggerator is by Curlin out of a Vindication mare. His AWD stats for these two sires is 11.05. (Only half of the dam's sire's stat is used because he is a generation removed.) Nyquist is out of Uncle Mo by a Forestry mare. His AWD stats are 10.2. Nyquist will be gasping for air as Exaggerator and others pass him in the stretch. Better training simply cannot make up for a pedigree dominated by milers and sprinters.
+Paige Wheat Where to begin... You are dead on with your observation of mud and weight. I'd have been fired if I'd shown up at the paddock on a rainy day without my horse's tail tied. They can carry several lbs. of mud in their tails. Bris, ADW, Beyer: they are completely subjective. When they say speed ratings are "adjusted", the fact is they alter their formula to fit the facts and the numbers they start with are assigned arbitrarily. And you cannot assign a number to genetic inheritence; it's not like adding a tablespoon of Northern Dancer to a quarter cup of Mr. Prospector. Although an ancestor's genes may be diluted to an infinitely small number over many generations, a single dominant gene can go on and on and on while a recessive gene can disappear very quickly, so genes do not have equal influence as simply dividing the number of genes generation by generation would imply. Whew!
Jay C. Nehf Your comment on genetics is spot on. A gene does not have to be expressed in each generation. The reason I like to use Average Winning Distance (AWD) is that it is a tool to see what distance the get of a particular sire has won at, on average. That is not to say that there may not be exceptions to the rule as I sadly found out betting against AP and CC in the last two derbies. (LOL) In the case of Nyquist, though his damsire is a sprinter, Forestry is by Storm Cat, I believe, as I think Giant's Causeway is also. ( I will look them up) Giant's Causeway has tended to sire longer distance oriented progeny.I did not know that you could see a photo of the horse whose pedigree you were looking up and I appreciate that information. I have studied horse racing for a long time and still learn new things all the time. Sometimes too much information is not good however as it creates a lot of doubt. I remember I picked Go for Gin, Thunder Gulch, and Charismatic without a clear reason but with all the info on the internet have not been doing as well. Then again I wish I had known Animal Kingdom's dam was a long-winded German mare. Hindsight is certainly better than foresight. I admit I am looking for an excuse (reasons) to pick against Nyquist as he will be a heavy favorite and if he loses picking the winner could result in a big payout.
Thank you for subtly letting me know what AWD is in your reference. I was too embarrassed to admit that all I could think of was Advanced Deposit Wagering! LOL! I love your take on family. It's so hard, in fact impossible to truly gauge influence but ain't it fun trying!
***** Wow! With a payout like that it could not be favorites like last year. Brisnet just downgraded my first pick Gun Runner. He had been given a 104 for the La. Derby but they changed it to a 100. That leaves me with a decision whether or not to keep GR on top for the win. I have not decided. I also like Exaggerator, Mor Spirit and Lani (?) a lot. I was checking out Lani's past performances and he has just as good of times as the US horses for the mile. He also has a race at 1 1/8, 1 1/4 and two at 1 3/16. In other words he has a lot more experience at longer distances. He has won or done well in fields of 15 and 16 horses and his grandsire, Sunday Silence won the Derby. His dam beat males at distance races and Tapit, although not a good distance sire, has had Tonalist, which won the Belmont. Toinalist's dam was also a good distance influence. I also like Creator as his Peruvian dam could go a distance. and Suddenbreakingnews to get in the Super. Nyquist is good and might also be in the Super but I don't have him on top. I think Trojan Nation could be a shocker for place, show or fourth. I do not think Mo Tom, Destin or Mohaymen are bred for a distance but might hold on for a spot. Then there is My Man Sam and Majesto. I think Outwork tries hard but he and Brody's Cause are too slow. I would leave out the rest I have not named as well.It will be a BIG bet even if I eliminate three or four. Getting it down to the bare bones, leave out Mo Tom, Majesto, Trojan Nation and Suddenbreakingnews. That leaves GR, Exaggerator, Mor Spirit, Lani, Creator and Nyquist. I have to work out the cost of having all them and may want to key one horse such as Exaggerator or Lani on top. But please remember I have not had a real great insight since Charismatic and Thunder Gulch. Best of luck! . I will edit this when I hear about Post Positions and scratches.
LOL! Youi remind me of Everyone Loves A Longshot, the name of the 5 minute movie we made about Santa Anita. It's on vimeo if you want to see it. It was for the SA film festival. Good luck to you as well.
The horse who decelerrates the least pulls away, just like a human. Its not that they're speeding up, they're slowing down faster than Exaggerator. Nyquist appears to be the swifter horse, but the condition of the track has to be considered. A wet track vs. dry good track. Not buying a wet S.A. is faster than a dry track in Florida.
+Daunte Burks Of course there was one famous exception to this rule, Secretariat with a first furlong at 36mph and a closing furlong in a mind-numbing 39mph. So he accelerated in the straight whilst the others horses (except cousin Sham) deccelerated. But again, that was an exception. Although Zenyatta was another example of this exception.
+Daunte Burks in general, the California tracks and especially S.A. produce faster races overall. Whether the wet track is faster than a dry in FLA, I am not even going there, but, for example, you may run a 5 furlong race in :59 in the slop at SA and :58.1 on fast at FLA, but in the slop at FLA, they would go 1:01. On a fast track, times in general are faster at CA tracks.
Not true at all. Exaggerator ran 30 MPH in S.A. for his last quarter, but ran 35+ for his last quarter at Churchill Downs, so your theory goes right out the window. A wet SA is slower than a dry Churchill Downs.
+Daunte Burks Yes but ultimately, we do'nt know WHY he ran faster or slower at any given time. There could be many reasons besides track condition, notably the rider.
I think it's reasonable to presume the wet track had a lot to do with it, he may have been carrying more weight due to mud being on him, and he was in the lead in SA. The Derby was dry and he was trailing.
Nyquist post 13, Exaggerator 11, Gun Runner 5, Mohaymen 14, Brodys Cause 19! 😑My Man Sam 6, Creator 3, Lani 8, Mor Spirit 17, Outwork 15, Destin 9, SuddenBreakinNews 2, Trojan Nation the longshot got the dreaded 1 post, Mo Tom 4, Oscar Nominated 7, Whitmore 10, Tom's Ready 12, Shigaff 16, Majesto 18, Danzig Candy 20. Place your bets!! 😁😁😁
the jockey screwed it up. if the jockey was bejarano or rosario they would have positioned exagerator and did the job closing exagerar to win. exagerator had more speed at the finish.
+rockin roy Kent Desormeaux is taking a bit of heat. He did say he thought the hot pace would slow Nyquist down, so he was caught by surprise. He misjudged the competition and brother Keith probably did too.
Flawed....look at the difference in track conditions....trying to compare a sloppy track to a dry track isn't as easy as times...also, west coast tracks and east coast tracks aren't the same...and GP was souped up that day
+Greg Stevens Official charts show GP listed "Good", SA listed "Sloppy/Sealed". The DRF definition of Good is "between Fast and Slow". Back in the old days, Good meant a drying track that is heavier and slower than "Wet" or "Sloppy". They didn't have "Sealed" in use back in the 60's or before. Sloppy/Sealed is as fast as a track gets. To seal a track they compress the cushion with big heavy floats behind the tractors, so you can imagine what that surface is like. The times in the SA Derby reflect that speedy surface. However- you're right in saying that the whole thing is flawed, though incomplete is really more accurate. Some of you commentors have an infinite capacity to scrutinize detail that is far beyond my ability to stay focused. You guys amaze me! Are you familiar with the true story of the field of horses at old Tropical Park Florida, 1960's I believe, that jumped an alligator on the back stretch? Now THAT was a souped up track.
Yes I'm very well versed on track conditions, and it makes exaggerator look even better to close on a sloppy track, which nation wide tends to favor speed horses as they have the ability to "skip" across it...and the slow fractions of the Fla Derby favored Nyquist who had it his own way....Nyquist is not breed as good as exaggerator, in terms of distance pedigree and he was VERY tired in the last 1/8th of a mile....exaggerator was stretching out, reaching for more ground, where Nyquist was looking for a place to lay down...and you said it yourself that the mud can create an additional 10 pounds of weight for him to carry....your statements and your MPH contradict your conclusion
LOL! That mud thing keeps haunting me. But the weather should be good. I don't think Nyquist wandered because he was tired. Just my intuition to go on there. And I spoke to Dennis O'Neill myself last week and he oozed confidence. All these angles to consider are what makes racing such a great sport. Have you looked at Mokat in the Oaks? Another Uncle Mo. And her jock is amazing. 20 to 1 shot. And Songbird is out. sound interesting?
Uncle Mo is off to a hot start in the shed isn't he...and I spoke with one of the partners that owns Nyquist just hours ago, they are very high on him obviously. He said he wasn't tired in Fla. but I've been watching racing for years, just as u have, and to me that indicates lack of distance ability....and of course, none of the connections are gonna come out and say "our horse was tired and can't get the distance" ...it's a crap shoot in such a large field and anything can happen....I'm looking forward to Saturday....by the way, Mo Tom is my pick, if he stays out of trouble he's got a real shot...and I'm with u in the Beyer speed figures, I don't put faith in them either
Since when is a one mile work "Innovative"? Probably since the time when a horse could run back in less than six weeks time, AKA before lasix. Back when you had to condition your horse by running him 8 or 10 times as a two year old. Back when they weren't so dehydrated and could run back in two or three weeks. Ultimately, I agree with that Nyquist is more impressive, but let's not denigrate the other horses performance. He started his drive on the BACKSTRETCH when he was ten lengths off the pace, and he sustained it to the wire. That may put a little more into him than a one mile work, and he was galloping at the finish. Still, Nyquist was really reaching out through the lane, and didn't look to be shortening stride anytime soon.
+Dave Dancyger Dancyger Have you looked at Equineline.com? I was recently reminded of a horse I groomed when I was a kid back in the 1970's named Hey Rube. So I looked him up on Equineline and was stunned to see he had 64 starts! So I looked up another, Bold Colonel; 118 starts! How things have changed in my lifetime...
+rockin roy Lot's of interesting comments on the horses so far but no one's talking about the jockeys. Exaggerator's pilot, Kent Desormeaux is a real pro but the starting gate will be loaded with talent. Would you rather see another jock on Exaggerator or does Desormeaux fit the bill for you?
+Jay C. Nehf Brother Keith Desormeaux would have some 'splainin' to do if he took Kent off. That is unless he put Kent on his other fine horse Creator which I believe is coming into his own at these longer distances. Creator is by Tapit out of a Peruvian mare who loved distance racing. Watch Creator pass Cupid and Suddenbreakingnews to win the Arkansas Derby. Kent has won three or four Derbies but his biggest loss was when Big Brown couldn't finish the Belmont to win the Triple Crown.
I think Exaggerator looked way stronger than Nyquist today in the Preakness. Nyquist finished third behind Cherry Wine. I just don't believe the blistering pace AND especially the track conditions were advantages to Nyquist. He is no American Pharoah that's for sure.
+Jay C. Nehf I was wondering what you thought about why Nyquist took that "right turn" and tried to go around Exaggerator on the right, when it really did look like he had a clear path along the rail? Exaggerator was not "on" the rail, and he couldn't have cut Nyquist off or there would have been an inquiry. Did Mario Gutierrez panic?
I like Nyqvist, but that Florida Derby result did not look all that impressive. Mohaymen totally backed up in the stretch and Nyquist simply finished. He ran his final 1/8th in almost 13 seconds under a drive and was all over the track. It did not look like the result of being green, but rather being dead tired. The horse who finished 2nd in that race by 3 lengths, Majesto, had just broken his maiden in a so so time in his 5th try and was trying winners for the first time. That race just does not look all that good, and the way Nyqvist was all over the track the final 1/8th does quite possibly indicates he wants no part of 1 1/4. Very surprised this horse is 2-1.
Well Jay, he proved me wrong. Gotta give him credit, he was up near a hot pace, and put them all away today. I wonder if maybe i misread his FL Derby because part of O'Neil's plan was not to have him fully cranked for that race?
I thought for sure that smokin' pace would do him in but man, that was a classy mile and a quarter race. I think you have to give O'Neill a ton of credit for having this horse so fit without hurting him. He may have chsnged the modern training model. I literally will be training in similar fashion.
+Jay C. Nehf looked smooth and fun for Nyquist... Exaggerator is strong though and caught up fast....enjoy the physics... Did not know about the 10 lbs of tail mud...
You got that right. How will he plan the assault on the Belmont via the Preakness with Exaggerator's stretch run lurking at the Belmont Park quarter pole? Will Exaggerator skip the Preakness?
So if i run on cement, or in this case a track that doesn't eat up all my energy, somebody else running in the sloppy mud is using up the SAME ENERGY? Total bull if you ask me!! don't believe me, go try it!! Let's dumb it down for the handicapped, Nyquist beat Exaggerator twice!! Nyquist beat the east coasts best pretty easy!! KISS method seems easy, but the derby is a different animal NONE of these have seen. Is Uncle Mo a Derby sire? Running style of the top horses, which ones can relax while others can't?
+Matthew Hood I think this race comes down to the sires. Which Uncle Mo is best, which Tapit is best, and which Candy Ride line horse is best, and which Giants Causeway line horse is best. The rank from the best ONE of each in order you like most! Boom, your Superfecta!!
Sure he has, Desormeaux may not be the right guy to get the best out of him. After what I saw yesterday, Exaggerator is my bet to win the Belmont. He will walk Nyquist down in a 1.5M race and if Espinoza was on this horse, he may have won the Derby.
Desmormeaux sounded like he was just plain outrun all the way. He wasn't ralking about " if I had a little more distance...". Nonetheless, Exaggerator will probably be the only thing between Nyquist and the Triple Crown. Interesting thought on the jockey change. I've heard that around the Santa Anita backstretch too.
+Daunte D. Burksizm If he makes his move earlier he has less gas in the lane. It's always that illusion that closers have. He was never going to get past Nyquist.
Desormeaux said he knew he wasn't going to catch him. Even so, Trakus has average final 1/4 Nyquist 32.5 mph, Exaggerator a whopping 35.9 mph! That's smokin' at that distance.
Wow love these videos! They're helping lots with understanding this years Derby contenders. Thank you!
Wow! This comparison was pretty cool. I really liked the data about Exaggerator's "exaggerated" strong finish. Data doesn't lie.
never thought about the mud in the tail detail, will remember that.
I like the comparison. My only comment would be that Exaggerator was winding down towards the wire. This might effect final MPH. Also breeding has something to do with going a 1 1/4. Keep up the videos.
+kyomastable
Yes, you're right about the final speed. It's not a clean, clear comparison, but it's what we've got. what do you do? Punt!
Jay I couldn´t agree more, this horse is 1 second faster than anybody else, my pick for the roses...
+Fernando Ponce The Santa Anita Derby track was slower than at Gulfstream as was the Wood Memorial's surface. Instead of using real time, experts have devised ways of comparing tracks by using speed figures. Often the slower time will produce a higher speed figure. For example, Exaggerator got a 102 BRIS figure while Nyquist got only a 98. Outwork got a 96 even though it was the slowest real time for the Wood ever.
They're both great horses who both won me A LOT of money in 2016 Kentucky Derby!
Great video. Really good explanation of your thinking. Subscribed!
Extremely informative, educational, knowledgeable. Thank you for the upload. Subscribed!
ujjjjnjhh
Very sound analysis... and yes! Nyquist is the Kentucky Derby champion! One more baby!
What a nice price on the Exacta for these two horses finishing 1-2. A longer race may benefit Exaggerator in the Belmont. I think the turns at Pimlico benefit Nyquist in the Preakness. Subbed.
+kansasisaband
That must have been suuuuweet!
I learn something with each episode. I had no idea there was such depth in racing issues.
Jay, funny that you should mention such a memory. This morning is was driving down the road and apropos of nothing I remembered a horse that I used to rub on. The absolute smartest horse that I ever encountered. Cheap claimer, bad legs, but just one of those that move you. Listen, I just did a little reading up on you. Very fascinating. Would love to speak with you some time. Dave
+Dave Dancyger Dancyger
YOu can leave a message by clicking on my name just beloe the video window next to the little thumbnail photo. Then click on "about" and then click "send message". I'd be happy to chat
Going to be like two races in one in the Kentucky Derby. All the sprinters on one side, and the closers on the other. Doug O'Neill trains like they train in Ireland.
This was posted prior to the Kentucky Derby, every aspect and angle of it came true & will continue through the entire Triple Crown trail.
+john mccarthy
thanks John.
nice system that's the wrong word . very helpful tool. Danny I think you can compare west to east and different tracks because he converting into mph . I have been doing this for years but with the last quarter mile split and not converting in mph , converting brings it to a new level
My first Derby was 1962. You can analyze til the cows come home, and in the end there are just too many variables. It all comes down a 50/50 proposition {half best horse, half pure luck} and you must have them both to see your horse wearing the roses. Best of luck.
+papawx3 IRON LEIGE 57 TIM TAM WAS MY FIRST WINNER, iT'S A 50/50 WHETHER IT'LL RAIN ON DERBY DAY A HORSE THAT LIKES SLOP IS A BIG PLUSiF iT RAINS!. LUCK PLAYS A BIG PART ON POST POS. AND WHETHER OR NOT SPEED HORSE DRAWS BUNCH THE INSIDE ITS NCALLED TRAFFIC THEN A JOCKEY LIKE CALVIN IS A BIG PLUS. IF IT COMES DOWN TO TWO HORSES FOR ME ITS ALWAYS WEATHER STRIDE DI AND X THE MORE VARIABLES YOU PUT IN THE BETTER YOUR CHANCE OF THE PICK. iT'S SORTA LIKE MONEYBALL
+Justin Burton
Personally, I prefer caps to to vulgarity. Dude.
+Jay C. Nehf I prefer vulgarity.
LOL! Sometimes it's just sooooo apropriate!
Jay - Just great to see the number of horse peeps coming here to your site.
Seems Mike Smith was given the instructions to ride his mount here ala his patented filly style Songbird; even though it came up mud. So get out, get to the mile and finish up the paper work for the last furlong. Like you said Mother Nature's resistance and ten pounds of horse tail mud. Plus the winner had won on the wet loam.
Most point races this year seem to me (like Mohaymen's / Shagaf and more) let the field go out, pass em at six and nobody has much distance or closing left. And with many of the others watched who will be in the Kentucky Derby.
IMHO, my key Delta horse for plays in the Derby, Nyquist will be no where in the significant race calls until about the 7.5 furlongs to a mile (normal track conditions). Especially as Nyquist and jockey Mario will be the runner with the target on his back.
Mario just needs to watch the jock on 2012 Derby winner I'll Have Another's Derby for best trip example.
+Don Sutton 123 I had to laugh at your comment about watching IHA's jock since that was Mario too, as you no doubt already know.
A couple things I noticed. Nyquist got pretty easy fractions for that caliber of horse on a track that looked much better. Exaggerator got a worse track and if you noticed in the last 150 yards or so he shut down the horse and even put the brakes on. Nyquist was still hand riding the horse.
Cool. Just gotta remember that different tracks are faster or slower than others. Should be a great race! Just hoping Songbird does great in the Oaks so that maybe she'll race the boys in the Preakness.
+Greg Phillips
An excellent cautionary note!
+Jay C. Nehf
I hope everyone else spots your comment.
This was an awesome analysis. Been watching american horse racing since 3 years now and this analysis was pretty unique. Nyquist is definitely better based on what has happened so far. Its gonna be an exciting derby. 20 horses and who knows what the track conditions will be. But the champion horses that have won over the years are the ones that have the guts to overcome everything including bad trips. They look into the eyes of their rivals and pull away in stylish performances. Nyquist has that touch of class. Lets see what happens.
+Ethan H
spot on
+Ethan Mohaymen was sold for several million more, but money does not always equate to class. IMO Nyquist pulled away because Mohaymen was forced to run much farther around the turn. Did you see the live race? If you did, you will notice Majesto was far ahead of them all rounding the turn after the race, at about the 1 1/4 mark which is the distance of the Kentucky Derby.
Take a look at the aerial view and jockey view of the Florida Derby on Trakus on the Gulfstream website. I'd love to hear what you think it's usefulness because you can so clearly see what you're referring to here.
Jay C. Nehf Thanks. I will try to locate the Gulfstream website.I found it and it showed what I expected. Mohaymen was by far the widest throughout until the final stretch. He was about five wide around the first turn and at least three wide around the second. I wonder how much farther he traveled. I had heard it was many feet but I cannot remember the exact figure.It ends at the finish and does not show the gallop out where Majesto zipped far ahead after the race going around the turn. This was mentioned on Bloodhorse in The Derby Dozen by the moderator as well.
Paige Wheat Well i dont live in the states so I watch the replays on youtube :) I guess its amazing to watch it live. I believe you raise a valid point. I have been following the triple crown since 2013 so Im pretty fresh to it all.
Hi Jay, My name is Doug and I want to thank you so much!! I watched one of your videos on Nyquist and bet on him and made a lot of money. Wondering if there is a way I could follow on future races I hope:)
+Doug Cancellara
Thanks Doug, just click "subscribe" and you get notification via email
I'd love to see Kent win another derby. Him and suddenbreakingnews are my derby horses.
" It all depends on the Irons!!"
Exxagorater loved sloppy tracks . There was some good horses in this derby.
CAN YOU RUN NYQUIST AGAINST MAJESTO AND SLEEPER CREATOR
Well you identified #1 and #2 in the Derby quite accurately. I think Nyquist should also beat Exagerrator in the Preakness, but the Belmont may prove another kettle of fish.
+Ecky Thimble
Yes, the Belmont is going to be a really great race. I'll have to do some serious thinking about how that will play out. Should be interesting.
+Jay C. Nehf So you think the Preakness is already a foregone conclusion of Nyquist (assuming good health)?
I haven't really taken a hard look yet. It should be a much smaller field with perhaps some new faces. Nyquist won't be as fresh. So, no, it will be a different kettle of fish. Will Exaggerator skip it and show up for the Belmont in real fighting form and a new plan? The Preakness is greatly underrated as a key component of the making of champions. The Triple Crown would be much weakened if the Preakness was moved to a different date or skipped by too many good contenders. What would Affirmed and Alydar 's historic rivalry be without the Preakness there to make the Belmont all the more difficult?
Nice analysis...but meh. You can't compare the two based on the Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby. Two different tracks, opposites ends of the spectrum in track conditions, and despite all the max speeds and final speeds that you mention here...in the end, Nyquist, on a good track, was only .3 faster than Exaggerator on a major sloppy track. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying it's not the most fair comparison.
+Danny Kaye
my analysis is really just a starting point with the Trakus info providing an alternatve view of performance. All of these comments, yours included, demonstrate quite clearly just how complex, and fascinating, the sport is. I have really enjoyed stimulating racing fans like you to speak up and present a different point of view. As a horseman, thanks for being an enthusiastic fan. So far, it's a great Triple Crown year and it isn't even May!
+Jay C. Nehf One thing is for certain, it has been a very exciting TC year so far. Looking forward to more videos from you.
Yes, absolutely. The thinking man's year.
Great video, very informative.
As you said the speeds from Gulfstream were close to 50mph. Someone else said that Gulfstream is a fast track and the numbers were accurate. They are not accurate.
+Biting Mongeese - Geoffrey Bynoe
Oh that! I talked to Trakus on the phone and they were quite chagrined about the mix up. 50 mph is far, far beyond reality. Thanks for clearing that up. You guys are too sharp to ignore when you mention things like "BS numbers..." I start thinking what the heck have I missed.
Good morning too you Jay C. Nehf. I saw Mor Spirit Breeze yesterday with company and he looked pretty good at Churchill Downs yesterday. Unfortunate when I look when I went to look up the video this morning of the work they did not have it on their list if you did see his work what did you think of it and what are his chances of hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby you know the last couple years says he has to look like a Derby winner no longer tender if you could get back to me I greatly appreciate it thank you have a nice day good-bye.
+william b Wheaton
Hi WIlliam, I looked on Equineline.com and they have Mor Spirit working 5f in :59.8 today. If you haven't tred Equineline, take a look, it's got a lot of great info. BAffert's horses are always dangerous and Gary Stevens is no fool. If anything goes wrong with Nyquist or the others close to the pace, Stevens will find a way to take advantage of it and Mor Spirit gives him plenty of horse to work with.
Hey Jay Maurice again. crushed it at the derby and I'd like to tell you your veiwers who I believe will superfecta and hi5 in the Preakness. I just need one question awnserd from a pro like yourself. Who are the 5 horses in this race who besides Nyquist ran well in the slop? I have exggerator and lani in my memory bank
+Maurice Alexander
New video on that! Check out Stradivari, won on "good" track at Gulfstream just like Nyquist in the Fl Derby. 90% chance of rain for Preakness!
Hi Jay, just want to thank you for the Nyquist video. Made some money! How do I keep updates with you on future races? Doug
+Doug Cancellara
Just click on subscribe and you will get email notices of new videos. Thanks!
First Beyer Speed Figures or Time forms and now this! They are not numbers. They are horses. Bob Baffert, who trained American Pharoah, had each trainer stand up one at a time and be applauded at the annual trainer's dinner, where he was honoured with "Trainer Of The Year." Then he said, "One of you in this room is the 2016 Kentucky Derby winning trainer." ANY OF THOSE TWENTY CAN WIN. IT's not just about track bias, jockeys or even breeding. It takes being in the right place when the race is done.
+Dasiy Jane
And the right place is in front!
Yep! Now I read Nyquist did not ship to Belmont because he "Spiked a fever of 102." (Blood-Horse) That's a spike? A horse's normal temperature is between 99 and 101. Stress and excitement can raise it. Didn't he just lose a big race? :-)
Hey Jay, could you do an analysis on Fellowship? I like him but I saw he ran 14 feet shorter than Nyquist, although he ran only .4 mph slower than Nyquist. Does he have a legitimate chance? He's good around traffic, which is what I really favor with him. Given Mohaymen did not run from the back of the pack like Fellowship, maybe Mohaymen is better. I'm not sure.
+Jack DeBiasi
LOL! No one is sure!
a lot of horses hit that brick wall in the derby
Mr. Nehf, I really enjoy your interesting and expertised video's on pre-derby analises. There is a lot to do about Nyquist. It's rare that a horse goes to the Derby undefeated. But that is also competition and "luck" related. But in your opinion, where is Nyquist standing compared to California Chrome and American Pharoah at the end of their Derby-preps ? I think that would be a more then interesting analyse. I have some doubts about Nyquist's stamina. I have some feeling that if they would run in the same year CC would win the Derby, Nyquist the Preakness (more speed, less distance) and AP the Belmont ( greater stamina ). What is your opinion?
+Ivan Mees
Actually, that's a pretty good analysis. CC is an amazing horse and I too rate him a notch higher than Nyquist and AP. Also, your idea of comparing the preps is a good one but I don't think I'll have time to do it before the Derby. I want to take a look at the jockeys, a factor which no one seems to be thinking much about.
+Jay C. Nehf I agree with you about CC being better than AP. AP benefited by not having much speed in his races and when Frosted socked it to him in the Travers he could not hold off a fair but not great Keen Ice. Speaking of Jockeys, Espinoza just got named to be on Whitmore. I am sure this will ruin Espinosa's streak of winning Triple Crown races. (He has five of the last six wins).
Paige Wheat Yep, poor Victor.
Jay C. Nehf I just read a report from The Lexington Herald Leader about Mohaymen's "WOW!" work Wednesday. They have done some tweaking since Florida including putting on glue-on shoes and he really skipped over the Churchill surface. McLaughlin said he hardly took a deep breath and only a sip of water.
Tom Amoss was upset that Mo Tom went too fast.
+Jay C. Nehf Yes, everyone would agree on that... but.... Whitmore reminds me a little bit of Mine that Bird - a pedigree designed for distance, not the horse to expect, no glamour-boy, but a relyable guy, who don't give up easily. A perfect Upset, and with Victor aboard... he can get the best out of any horse. In a "dirty" derby I would give them a real chance. If everyone focusses the race on Nyquist and he fails at the end, it could be 2009 all over again...
well.
.you were right. Exagerator did his typical rush....but didn't have enough track and if you look..more last 50yrds Nyquist picks Exagerator up and it appears Exagerator stalls out. it will be interesting to see with a less loaded track at the Preakness or Belmont if Exagerator can steal one.
Exaggerator,Cherry Wine, horse who came in fourth, Nyquist this is how the Belmont results will be.
wow, yadda, yadda, yadda.
the horse has matured.
He's learned to relax out of the gate.
Not as complicated as you made it.
+Lori Colvin
I only scratched the surface. Much of what we observe we misinterpret, much is missed altogether and I beg to differ- it's complicated. But as a trainer/owner, these details as they regard my own horses can make the difference between steak dinner or Ramen noodles! So I guess I look at things a little differently than most handicappers would.
bob cat lol you're funny.
Can u do a Tampa Bay Derby break down? I really like Destin, would love to see how u break down his race in the TB Derby.
+Eiran Israel
Hmmm... Ok, you're not the only one looking at Destin! I hope these videos will help you learn to read the Trakus charts. I think they open up a whole new understanding of how a race unfolds and each horse performs. You'll be training horses with Baffert and O'Neill in no time.
+Jay C. Nehf I am looking at the chart right now =)
+Jay C. Nehf Destin's final Furlong was 34.6 miles per hour.
Destin Got 4th to Mo Tom GunRunner and Toms Ready in January.. They're all Win Threats..
Yep, they are. You don't get into the Churchill starting gate without a little credibility
What happens when you factor in the extra weight the Santa Anita Derby Horses were carrying. At the finish Nyquist' tail is straight out while Exaggerator's is straight down. At the final 1/4 mile, using your 10 lb theory, Exaggerator was carrying 133+ lbs while nyquist was carrying 123. I am inclined to believe that extra weight. was the reason for the higher Beyer. Another thing to consider is the jockey's post race weight. There was probably mud all over him and maybe even inside his boots.
+guimbanian25
They're all valid points. Confusing, ain't it?
+Jay C. Nehf Thanks and yes it is confusing.
Gulfstream is a superfast track... the numbers are right
Great video
When you calculated the average speed of Exaggerator's final furlong did you take into account he was geared down? As opposed to Nyquist who was ridden out?
+chris shoneff
I know what you mean but you just don't get that from Trakus. It has its limits.
Your analysis of Nyquist in the Florida Derby vs. Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby is missing two key things. You did not state the Finish Times nor the Beyers at 1 mile 1/8 for both horses in these perspective races. Had you, you would have told your audience that Nyquist ran the Florida Derby in 1:49.11 in perfect conditions with a beyer of 94 while Exaggerator ran the Santa Anita Derby in sloppy conditions in 1:49.66 with a beyer of 103. Please explain how Nyquist is the horse to beat?
+Travis L.
Ah, ah, ah... Fl Derby track was listed "Good", not "Fast". And I do not give Beyer numbers credibility. If you look at the way they came up with their system, there are a lot of arbitrary assumptions. Finish times in my opinion are not as informative as finishing speed. But these are just my opinions. Believe it or not, I'm not trying to defend my Derby pick, I'm just making some observations and Holy Cow has it started a conversation! Honestly, I had no idea it would get these responses and they have been smart, well informed and creative, including yours. Thanks for joining in.
What about Creator and Suddenbreakingnews? What's missing from this analysis is that Nyquist was able to control the pace and have his way. That's not likely to happen in the Derby. If there's the typical speed dual scenarios on the front end, we'll have at least three last to first deep closers (remember: Street Sense, Mine That Bird, Strike The Gold, and Ferdinand)...I think we are going to see pretty much all the speed collapse, and the deep closers will prevail.
+Michael Dominici
yes BUT! as I replied earlier, Nyquist has been very manageable on or near the lead and his ability to get to the front quickly (his top speed has been close to 43 mph), then settle in where Mario wants him, could put him right where he needs to be in the final 1/4. But you're absolutely right; anything can, and probably will, happen.
+Jay C. Nehf This 'genius' analysis is helpful to a degree. When we look at races we see what we see, but we don't always know the numbers and the figures. This type of analysis is a valuable tool as far as not letting yourself get tricked just because a horse like Exaggerator 'appears' to be flying home down the stretch, etc. when the numbers/fractions tell a different story. Fair enough, but again there are many more scenarios than this and the more important issue is stamina and the ability to finish strong. Remember that Zenyatta's numbers looked pretty tepid on paper in both Breeder's Cup races for instance, and she finished with a furious rush. To me, the most important aspect of the Kentucky Derby is finding a horse with true grit, and heart. Street Sense, American Pharoah, Ferdinand, Charismatic, I'll Have Another, Silver Charm, Strike The Gold, and Thunder Gulch in particular are just a few that had the qualities it takes beyond various figures and formulas that put them in the winner's circle on Derby day.
LOL! Genius?!? You're absolutely right. These numbers tell us one thing: at that time in that place the horse went that fast, or whatever number you're looking at. The numbers don't tell you just how much effort that horse was making when he posted that number. Nor does it tell you what it was thinking; angry, sore, scared, bored. For my handicapping, the one factor that weighs most heavily is something I haven't mentioned at all: physical appearance. There's just no substitute for being in the physical presence of the horses and comparing them as they walk around the parade ring. But that isn't going to happen for most of us come Derby Day.
+Michael Dominici American Pharoah lost the only two times he had a serious fight for the lead. In the Preakness Baffert instructed Martinez, apparently, to let AP go by Dortmund which he also trained, and then to use Dortmund to make other horses have to go wide around him. If Liam's Map or Beholder had raced in the Classic, AP would have been beaten, IMO. If you think this is far fetched, note how Baffert's horse won the 2014 BCC.
Paige Wheat
I should hire you as a consultant
Yes Nyquist has won the Kentucky, but Exaggerator could really get the Belmont, maybe not the Preakness, but Exaggerator really has a lot of stamina. Nyquist was definitely tiring in the last furlong.
Exactly, the pace in the Kentucky Derby was very fast. With the Preakness being a shorter race, I would of thought Exaggerator's owner and trainer would of skipped the race and looked to run him in the Belmont, where his closing style would benefit him.
yes but exagerater only has closing speed and nyquist will start opening so Im going with nyquist
+miley olsen It going to depend on the pace. They got away with a fast pace in the Derby, but it blew up on them in the Preakness. If Nyquist runs in the Belmont I'll bet you they'll change their strategy, and try to keep the opening quarters much slower. What we need to see is what if any kind of rabbits will be in the Belmont and if Nyquist's jockey will make a better effort to rate the horse!
+Dan Casey
That surprised me too, but look who won! Go figure
+Jay C. Nehf The concept was right, it just came one race early. I truly expected this to happen in the Belmont after I saw the fractional times in the Derby. Nyquist looked gassed at the end of the Derby. I just figured that with the Preakness being a shorter race, Nyquist would run a similar race to the Derby and hold off Exaggerator. I guess the sloppy track made the difference. I never thought the jockeys would send there horses out so fast In the slop. One because it would tire the horses faster, and two just for the safety concerns. Perhaps someone who knows horses well can comment on what difficulty horse have when running a wet track, verse a dry track?
I here Nyquist will have his final workout at Keeneland Friday
+lilchi721 hear
where can you get trakus ? is it free?
+Bob G
Free!!!! Not every track has it (Fairgrounds doesn't) but most of the majors do. Unfortunately, it can be hard to find on the tracks' websites. Santa Anita is under "interactive". You can usually find it easier by just googling "Gulfstream Trakus" for example and it should take you right to it.
the coefficient of friction, aerodynamic drag, is virtually meaningless at these comparative speeds. the only time that is ever considered is if the horses are running into a strong headwind where a difference can be multiplied.
+Kevin Potts
I beg to differ. It's basically the same as bicycle racing in which every tiny advantage counts. Several years ago someone did a study on aerodynamic silks and claimed that they can give you a 6 foot advantage over conventional silks at the wire in a 6f race. They cost twice as much but I got them. Hard to believe so many stables don't have them.
Jay C. Nehf Mayhaps I worded my comment wrongly. To me, when handicapping, I treat it as virtually meaningless. That doesn't mean that I always ignore it. Certainly if there is a headwind on the backstretch that certainly plays to how I note the race in my notebook, especially if a front runner fades in the last quarter of a mile or less race here at Churchill. No offense was intended.
Kevin Potts Do not apologize! No offense taken. I'd be disappointed if all of you guys agreed with me! Few people even consider aerodynamics in racing. There was an article in North American trainer magazine about all these tiny things you can do and now they have a name for it: "marginal gains".
The Derby as I envision...... Nyquist will hit a brick wall at the 1/8th pole, just as his granddaddy did in 1998 (Indian Chuck). Mor Spirit (who already passed him at the top of the stretch) will hold on, fending off a late challenge from a deep closer (don't know who). Gary Stevens will win his 4th Derby, being the second oldest jockey to win the Derby, and Baffert will win his 5th Derby, 2nd in a row.
+bando v'real
That last furlong looms large
+MrFinsforlife I'll eat some crow. I'm no moron though. We'll see how he handles the two week turnaround. I'll almost promise he won't stretch out to a mile-and-one half, not with his dams side (Forestry).
that is sound thinking but this horse is defying reason. He should have spit the bit after 9f at that pace. Is it O'Neill's better, updated conditioning?
I thought the fact that Mohaymen maintained his speed was interesting. He ran a bad race but maybe it wasn't as bad as it first looked and I'm sure he will get over looked on derby day
+indiablackwell Creator is the best Tapit since Tonalist!! That neck is AMAZING!!
+indiablackwell Thunder Gulch did the same thing in his final prep race.... After 2 hugh duel stretch runs
between he and Suave Prospect, with TG winning both, he just ran along, never touched by the jockey, and ran 4th behind SP.... Just a workout prior to TKD... TG won the Derby and Belmont that year. Made me some serious $.....
"Danzing Candy just did a 6fl work out in One Minute -Thirteen seconds!. The Derby is 10Fl's "
+Griffith Harland It was probably a generic jog, I'd expect him to run around 1:11.2 today.
+andrew papastefan That was a workout
I get that it was a workout, but it doesn't mean that they're gonna push the horse as hard as a race, maybe they should've made him have a longer workout since he was done with 3.5 furlongs left in the race
+andrew papastefan "I never saw the Race and I still haven't since I don't have TV. IF Smith had the lead for six furlongs, that should tell him to slow the field down and the others would still have followed then kicked again with still two to go. I saw the French do the same thing with Xzar and he won that day
Mo Tom is in the derby better watch out 🏇🏇🏇
+Jordy Estevez
I started work on a Gun Runner/Mo Tom video a couple of weeks ago. Time to wrap it up!
+Jordy Estevez Mo Tom has the same problem as Nyquist and Outwork. They have the same sire, the miler, Uncle Mo.
Nyquist has faster than Exaggerator. But exaggerator has better tactic.
well what mr.wizard fails to mention is nyquist ran on a FAST track,and exaggerator ran the same distance 1 second slower in the MUD.watch out for gunrunner,he could be the upset.
+bob harris
Mr. Wizard points out that the official track condition for the Florida Derby was "Good" and rated slower than the SA Derby track , rated "sloppy/sealed" which is very fast. But yes, Gun Runner's making me very nervous.
Sounds like O'Neill was using a form of interval training?
Well, Nyquist won the Derby so more power to him; but O'Neill's stable breakdown rate is too high for me. I'd hire someone else.
Secretariat's average speed was 37.8 mph in the KD. How could any of these horses rate 40 mph? Inaccurate.
+hay lalala
That's the difference, "average speed". The Trakus number is a "peak speed" referring to a single point during the race and is captured by a system of radio transmitters, one on each horse, and receivers placed at certain points around the track and it's very accurate. It was not available when Secretariat raced.
Jay, what's your opinion on Gun Runner??
+Doug Trapp I'm interested in this horse also.
+Hovey2229
I can't get excited about him. He's been beaten by horses which have been beaten by better horses. But that was then and this is now. He kinda nags me in the back of my mind. Is that vague enough for you? LOL
Horses are herd animals. The other horses are afraid to pass Nyquist. Watch Nyquist look at Mohaymen in the Florida derby. once he looked at him - Mohaymen dropped back. Respect.
+Joe Brunner
Joe, you have no idea how right you are! I just sold a horse that breeezed in :47 at Santa Anita and refused to pass the horse on the lead. Seas Courage is running in Ohio and has 2 or 3 2nds and 4 thirds but will not win.
Jay C. Nehf i'm just guessing but at the top of the stretch in the florida derby - when the announcer says "bi-coastal rivalry" nyquist is CLEARLY turning his head to look back at Mohaymen. freaked me out
LOL! I said the same thing when I saw that.
+Joe Brunner Horses do NOT turn their heads to see opponents who are beside them because their eyes are more to the sides of their heads than ours and their peripheral vision is much greater. Mohaymen had to run on the outside and was travelling much farther than Nyquist. If he had not lost all that ground he would have been the winner.
I'm stayin' out of this one!
"If you use your head a little bit," you will see that Exaggerator was carrying a lot more mud in his tail than Nyquist. You will also see that Exaggerator came from far back and sustained a much farther run. Nyquist may be training longer distances but If you compare their BRIS speed ratings, Exaggerator has 102, 101, 101, and 103 in his last four while Nyquist has 97, 103, 97 and 96. That 103 looks the best but it was in a 7f race. Nyquist's only other time breaking 100 was 102 in a six and a half furlong race. Exaggerator is by Curlin out of a Vindication mare. His AWD stats for these two sires is 11.05. (Only half of the dam's sire's stat is used because he is a generation removed.) Nyquist is out of Uncle Mo by a Forestry mare. His AWD stats are 10.2. Nyquist will be gasping for air as Exaggerator and others pass him in the stretch. Better training simply cannot make up for a pedigree dominated by milers and sprinters.
+Paige Wheat
Where to begin... You are dead on with your observation of mud and weight. I'd have been fired if I'd shown up at the paddock on a rainy day without my horse's tail tied. They can carry several lbs. of mud in their tails.
Bris, ADW, Beyer: they are completely subjective. When they say speed ratings are "adjusted", the fact is they alter their formula to fit the facts and the numbers they start with are assigned arbitrarily. And you cannot assign a number to genetic inheritence; it's not like adding a tablespoon of Northern Dancer to a quarter cup of Mr. Prospector. Although an ancestor's genes may be diluted to an infinitely small number over many generations, a single dominant gene can go on and on and on while a recessive gene can disappear very quickly, so genes do not have equal influence as simply dividing the number of genes generation by generation would imply. Whew!
Jay C. Nehf Your comment on genetics is spot on. A gene does not have to be expressed in each generation. The reason I like to use Average Winning Distance (AWD) is that it is a tool to see what distance the get of a particular sire has won at, on average. That is not to say that there may not be exceptions to the rule as I sadly found out betting against AP and CC in the last two derbies. (LOL) In the case of Nyquist, though his damsire is a sprinter, Forestry is by Storm Cat, I believe, as I think Giant's Causeway is also. ( I will look them up) Giant's Causeway has tended to sire longer distance oriented progeny.I did not know that you could see a photo of the horse whose pedigree you were looking up and I appreciate that information. I have studied horse racing for a long time and still learn new things all the time. Sometimes too much information is not good however as it creates a lot of doubt. I remember I picked Go for Gin, Thunder Gulch, and Charismatic without a clear reason but with all the info on the internet have not been doing as well.
Then again I wish I had known Animal Kingdom's dam was a long-winded German mare. Hindsight is certainly better than foresight.
I admit I am looking for an excuse (reasons) to pick against Nyquist as he will be a heavy favorite and if he loses picking the winner could result in a big payout.
Thank you for subtly letting me know what AWD is in your reference. I was too embarrassed to admit that all I could think of was Advanced Deposit Wagering! LOL! I love your take on family. It's so hard, in fact impossible to truly gauge influence but ain't it fun trying!
***** Wow! With a payout like that it could not be favorites like last year. Brisnet just downgraded my first pick Gun Runner. He had been given a 104 for the La. Derby but they changed it to a 100. That leaves me with a decision whether or not to keep GR on top for the win. I have not decided. I also like Exaggerator, Mor Spirit and Lani (?) a lot. I was checking out Lani's past performances and he has just as good of times as the US horses for the mile. He also has a race at 1 1/8, 1 1/4 and two at 1 3/16. In other words he has a lot more experience at longer distances. He has won or done well in fields of 15 and 16 horses and his grandsire, Sunday Silence won the Derby. His dam beat males at distance races and Tapit, although not a good distance sire, has had Tonalist, which won the Belmont. Toinalist's dam was also a good distance influence. I also like Creator as his Peruvian dam could go a distance. and Suddenbreakingnews to get in the Super. Nyquist is good and might also be in the Super but I don't have him on top. I think Trojan Nation could be a shocker for place, show or fourth. I do not think Mo Tom, Destin or Mohaymen are bred for a distance but might hold on for a spot. Then there is My Man Sam and Majesto. I think Outwork tries hard but he and Brody's Cause are too slow. I would leave out the rest I have not named as well.It will be a BIG bet even if I eliminate three or four. Getting it down to the bare bones, leave out Mo Tom, Majesto, Trojan Nation and Suddenbreakingnews. That leaves GR, Exaggerator, Mor Spirit, Lani, Creator and Nyquist. I have to work out the cost of having all them and may want to key one horse such as Exaggerator or Lani on top. But please remember I have not had a real great insight since Charismatic and Thunder Gulch. Best of luck! . I will edit this when I hear about Post Positions and scratches.
LOL! Youi remind me of Everyone Loves A Longshot, the name of the 5 minute movie we made about Santa Anita. It's on vimeo if you want to see it. It was for the SA film festival. Good luck to you as well.
The horse who decelerrates the least pulls away, just like a human. Its not that they're speeding up, they're slowing down faster than Exaggerator. Nyquist appears to be the swifter horse, but the condition of the track has to be considered. A wet track vs. dry good track. Not buying a wet S.A. is faster than a dry track in Florida.
+Daunte Burks Of course there was one famous exception to this rule, Secretariat with a first furlong at 36mph and a closing furlong in a mind-numbing 39mph. So he accelerated in the straight whilst the others horses (except cousin Sham) deccelerated.
But again, that was an exception. Although Zenyatta was another example of this exception.
+Daunte Burks in general, the California tracks and especially S.A. produce faster races overall. Whether the wet track is faster than a dry in FLA, I am not even going there, but, for example, you may run a 5 furlong race in :59 in the slop at SA and :58.1 on fast at FLA, but in the slop at FLA, they would go 1:01. On a fast track, times in general are faster at CA tracks.
Not true at all. Exaggerator ran 30 MPH in S.A. for his last quarter, but ran 35+ for his last quarter at Churchill Downs, so your theory goes right out the window. A wet SA is slower than a dry Churchill Downs.
+Daunte Burks
Yes but ultimately, we do'nt know WHY he ran faster or slower at any given time. There could be many reasons besides track condition, notably the rider.
I think it's reasonable to presume the wet track had a lot to do with it, he may have been carrying more weight due to mud being on him, and he was in the lead in SA. The Derby was dry and he was trailing.
Awesome vid.
Nyquist post 13, Exaggerator 11, Gun Runner 5, Mohaymen 14, Brodys Cause 19! 😑My Man Sam 6, Creator 3, Lani 8, Mor Spirit 17, Outwork 15, Destin 9, SuddenBreakinNews 2, Trojan Nation the longshot got the dreaded 1 post, Mo Tom 4, Oscar Nominated 7, Whitmore 10, Tom's Ready 12, Shigaff 16, Majesto 18, Danzig Candy 20. Place your bets!! 😁😁😁
+Killer Bees
Ye gods! That is an ambitious prediction!
+Jay C. Nehf That's not my picks!!! LOL That is some of the post positions!! 😁😁😁
+Jay C. Nehf I don't think I can box them all! :-P
the jockey screwed it up. if the jockey was bejarano or rosario they would have positioned exagerator and did the job closing exagerar to win. exagerator had more speed at the finish.
+rockin roy
Kent Desormeaux is taking a bit of heat. He did say he thought the hot pace would slow Nyquist down, so he was caught by surprise. He misjudged the competition and brother Keith probably did too.
Flawed....look at the difference in track conditions....trying to compare a sloppy track to a dry track isn't as easy as times...also, west coast tracks and east coast tracks aren't the same...and GP was souped up that day
+Greg Stevens
Official charts show GP listed "Good", SA listed "Sloppy/Sealed". The DRF definition of Good is "between Fast and Slow". Back in the old days, Good meant a drying track that is heavier and slower than "Wet" or "Sloppy". They didn't have "Sealed" in use back in the 60's or before. Sloppy/Sealed is as fast as a track gets. To seal a track they compress the cushion with big heavy floats behind the tractors, so you can imagine what that surface is like. The times in the SA Derby reflect that speedy surface. However- you're right in saying that the whole thing is flawed, though incomplete is really more accurate. Some of you commentors have an infinite capacity to scrutinize detail that is far beyond my ability to stay focused. You guys amaze me!
Are you familiar with the true story of the field of horses at old Tropical Park Florida, 1960's I believe, that jumped an alligator on the back stretch? Now THAT was a souped up track.
Yes I'm very well versed on track conditions, and it makes exaggerator look even better to close on a sloppy track, which nation wide tends to favor speed horses as they have the ability to "skip" across it...and the slow fractions of the Fla Derby favored Nyquist who had it his own way....Nyquist is not breed as good as exaggerator, in terms of distance pedigree and he was VERY tired in the last 1/8th of a mile....exaggerator was stretching out, reaching for more ground, where Nyquist was looking for a place to lay down...and you said it yourself that the mud can create an additional 10 pounds of weight for him to carry....your statements and your MPH contradict your conclusion
LOL! That mud thing keeps haunting me. But the weather should be good. I don't think Nyquist wandered because he was tired. Just my intuition to go on there. And I spoke to Dennis O'Neill myself last week and he oozed confidence. All these angles to consider are what makes racing such a great sport. Have you looked at Mokat in the Oaks? Another Uncle Mo. And her jock is amazing. 20 to 1 shot. And Songbird is out. sound interesting?
Uncle Mo is off to a hot start in the shed isn't he...and I spoke with one of the partners that owns Nyquist just hours ago, they are very high on him obviously. He said he wasn't tired in Fla. but I've been watching racing for years, just as u have, and to me that indicates lack of distance ability....and of course, none of the connections are gonna come out and say "our horse was tired and can't get the distance" ...it's a crap shoot in such a large field and anything can happen....I'm looking forward to Saturday....by the way, Mo Tom is my pick, if he stays out of trouble he's got a real shot...and I'm with u in the Beyer speed figures, I don't put faith in them either
+Greg Stevens Care to explain how Ex is better, yet has lost 3 times to Nyquist?
Since when is a one mile work "Innovative"? Probably since the time when a horse could run back in less than six weeks time, AKA before lasix. Back when you had to condition your horse by running him 8 or 10 times as a two year old. Back when they weren't so dehydrated and could run back in two or three weeks. Ultimately, I agree with that Nyquist is more impressive, but let's not denigrate the other horses performance. He started his drive on the BACKSTRETCH when he was ten lengths off the pace, and he sustained it to the wire. That may put a little more into him than a one mile work, and he was galloping at the finish. Still, Nyquist was really reaching out through the lane, and didn't look to be shortening stride anytime soon.
+Dave Dancyger Dancyger
Have you looked at Equineline.com? I was recently reminded of a horse I groomed when I was a kid back in the 1970's named Hey Rube. So I looked him up on Equineline and was stunned to see he had 64 starts! So I looked up another, Bold Colonel; 118 starts! How things have changed in my lifetime...
WE ALL KNOW EXAGERATOR IS THE KING ON A WET TRACK.
+rockin roy
Lot's of interesting comments on the horses so far but no one's talking about the jockeys. Exaggerator's pilot, Kent Desormeaux is a real pro but the starting gate will be loaded with talent. Would you rather see another jock on Exaggerator or does Desormeaux fit the bill for you?
+Jay C. Nehf Brother Keith Desormeaux would have some 'splainin' to do if he took Kent off. That is unless he put Kent on his other fine horse Creator which I believe is coming into his own at these longer distances. Creator is by Tapit out of a Peruvian mare who loved distance racing. Watch Creator pass Cupid and Suddenbreakingnews to win the Arkansas Derby. Kent has won three or four Derbies but his biggest loss was when Big Brown couldn't finish the Belmont to win the Triple Crown.
+Paige Wheat The problem with kent is that he is a drunk and has tested positive many times. Hopefully he is off the sauce on Saturday.
Ouch! No comment. Happens to so many good jocks. Gomez, Day, I think even Bailey had to deal with it.
I think Exaggerator looked way stronger than Nyquist today in the Preakness. Nyquist finished third behind Cherry Wine. I just don't believe the blistering pace AND especially the track conditions were advantages to Nyquist. He is no American Pharoah that's for sure.
+Killer Bees
Actually, I think he's better than AP. His times are significantly better. AP's preakness was the slowest since 1956.
+Jay C. Nehf I was wondering what you thought about why Nyquist took that "right turn" and tried to go around Exaggerator on the right, when it really did look like he had a clear path along the rail? Exaggerator was not "on" the rail, and he couldn't have cut Nyquist off or there would have been an inquiry. Did Mario Gutierrez panic?
+Ved Valmyr *LOL LOL LOL Come along and ride the Nyquist train! LOL :-P*
+Ved Valmyr *Have you heard of Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler, Swaps, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, A.P. Indy, John Henry, Wise Dan...? :-[*
nyquist lost the preakness due to sloppy track. ie mud
I like Nyqvist, but that Florida Derby result did not look all that impressive. Mohaymen totally backed up in the stretch and Nyquist simply finished. He ran his final 1/8th in almost 13 seconds under a drive and was all over the track. It did not look like the result of being green, but rather being dead tired.
The horse who finished 2nd in that race by 3 lengths, Majesto, had just broken his maiden in a so so time in his 5th try and was trying winners for the first time. That race just does not look all that good, and the way Nyqvist was all over the track the final 1/8th does quite possibly indicates he wants no part of 1 1/4. Very surprised this horse is 2-1.
+Bob Gardner
I know, it's anybody's guess as to why he wandered around out there. But he made short work of Mohaymen.
Well Jay, he proved me wrong. Gotta give him credit, he was up near a hot pace, and put them all away today. I wonder if maybe i misread his FL Derby because part of O'Neil's plan was not to have him fully cranked for that race?
I thought for sure that smokin' pace would do him in but man, that was a classy mile and a quarter race. I think you have to give O'Neill a ton of credit for having this horse so fit without hurting him. He may have chsnged the modern training model. I literally will be training in similar fashion.
And nyquist did it!
+ARCHANGEL OF LIGHT
And in style!
+Jay C. Nehf looked smooth and fun for Nyquist... Exaggerator is strong though and caught up fast....enjoy the physics... Did not know about the 10 lbs of tail mud...
Nyquist turned in a very fast time for that distance. The Belmont will be a tough one with Exaggerator coming on at the end the way he did.
+Jay C. Nehf O'Neill is already replaying and setting strategies for Ex i m sure...what fun!
You got that right. How will he plan the assault on the Belmont via the Preakness with Exaggerator's stretch run lurking at the Belmont Park quarter pole? Will Exaggerator skip the Preakness?
?? 40 MPH?? No. No that's not true.
+hay lalala
True- period But that is a momentary peak.
So if i run on cement, or in this case a track that doesn't eat up all my energy, somebody else running in the sloppy mud is using up the SAME ENERGY? Total bull if you ask me!! don't believe me, go try it!! Let's dumb it down for the handicapped, Nyquist beat Exaggerator twice!! Nyquist beat the east coasts best pretty easy!! KISS method seems easy, but the derby is a different animal NONE of these have seen. Is Uncle Mo a Derby sire? Running style of the top horses, which ones can relax while others can't?
+vegas j Nyquist has actually beaten Exaggerator 3 times.
+Matthew Hood
Oh yeah! The maiden race! Thanks for catching that.
+Matthew Hood I think this race comes down to the sires. Which Uncle Mo is best, which Tapit is best, and which Candy Ride line horse is best, and which Giants Causeway line horse is best. The rank from the best ONE of each in order you like most! Boom, your Superfecta!!
who can beat exaggerator on a sloppy track ?
+DarkWolfOmega47
And a sloppy track is always a possibility for the Derby. Out of 139 Derbys 42 were on an off track.
+DarkWolfOmega47 If there is rain in the forecast, Exaggerator is at the top of my list.
Nyquist isn't superior. Exaggerator needed to make his move earlier, he walked Nyquist down and ran out of real estate.
+Daunte D. Burksizm
Nyquist has beaten him 4 times. Period.
Sure he has, Desormeaux may not be the right guy to get the best out of him. After what I saw yesterday, Exaggerator is my bet to win the Belmont. He will walk Nyquist down in a 1.5M race and if Espinoza was on this horse, he may have won the Derby.
Desmormeaux sounded like he was just plain outrun all the way. He wasn't ralking about " if I had a little more distance...". Nonetheless, Exaggerator will probably be the only thing between Nyquist and the Triple Crown. Interesting thought on the jockey change. I've heard that around the Santa Anita backstretch too.
+Daunte D. Burksizm If he makes his move earlier he has less gas in the lane. It's always that illusion that closers have. He was never going to get past Nyquist.
Desormeaux said he knew he wasn't going to catch him. Even so, Trakus has average final 1/4 Nyquist 32.5 mph, Exaggerator a whopping 35.9 mph! That's smokin' at that distance.