Wow...I really think you're doing some superior handicapping! The combination of the combination of statistics, skill, style, race strategy is refreshing. Add in the articulate video analysis and markable! I'm a fan. Thank you.
+Megan Kara Maxwell Thanks. It's funny, though. I don't consider myself a handicapper. I'm just a horseman who is having fun pointing out the details many people might miss. It's up to you guys to put that information to good use. And some of you commentors are really sharp.
Watch what Kent and Keith say at the news conference after the race. They tell you the 3 reasons that their horse won. He recovers quickly after a tough race, Kent knew the rail was the best lane to be in, he loves running on mud. The Belmont will be GREAT FUN.
+Ambyr Clement Yep their game plan completely back fired. They didn't want to get boxed in on the rail so they blasted Nyquist out at a ridiculous pace while Exaggerator just sat back and rode the rail and waited.
All the races that day had a 23 sec. first quarter. This race had a 22 sec. quarter. Also Uncle Lino came up lame, that tells us Nyquist got used up early. Exaggerator looked real good before the race. He was crisp all the way to the gate. You are right about Exaggerator running his normal race. 1:58 was rather slow. Quick first quarter though. The average time for the Preakness is 1:55. The Belmont is getting interesting. I hope Cherry Wine's odds hang above 8-1. I should see some horses at Fair Hill Training Center before moving on to New York. I live a half hour from both Fair Hill and Bolton. Usually get some good info pre Belmont. Question for you: How come the horses tails were not tied. I thought this was done in mud to prevent build up in the tail. Always, Thanks for your videos.
+Bob McKee Were you at Santa Anita this morning? That was the buzz there, the early race times. Good question about the tails. when I was a kid at Washington Park back in the 60's and 70's I would have been fired if I showed up at the paddock on a rainy race day without my horse's tail tied. Trainers cry like babies if they're assigned an extra 2 pounds but then fail to tie the tail in the mud. Have you ever felt the weight of a wet, muddy tail?
Spot on Jay. While I loved Exaggerator in this race and take nothing away from Desormeaux's strategy; IMHO, If O'Neill chooses to allow Gutierrez to run from a little more "off the pace", to, say, the 3/4 pole, and begin his move with Exaggerator, the Belmont stretch will prove itself very interesting. Nyquist has won from the lead and in the stretch. Wait and see. Thank you Jay. Always a nice job.
What happened to Nyquist definitely mirrors what happened to Riva Ridge. The change tactics for the Preakness, as they thought his running style wouldn't win it. So I think if thats anything to go by, Nyquist could win the Belmont, but I really like Exaggerator
+Evie Yes, and that's what happened to Mohaymen in the Fl Derby and Empire Maker in the Ky Derby. Frankel thought he had so much the best horse he could go 5 wide all the way and stay out of trouble. Hah!
The move that Gutierrez made to shift outside on the backstretch and give up rail position to Exaggerator...asking Nyquist to slow and restart was a critical error that cemented the win for Exaggerator. As for Belmont, Nyquist wants no part of 1.5 miles...would not be surprised if ownership skips to protect stud value. Look for a deep closer to win like Exaggerator, SudenBreakingNews, Cherry Wine or Destin...assuming dry track.
+Vince Silvaer So you would think but nothing is normal this year! Nyquist is already committed to the Belmont. And that will make things very interesting and intense. I think this is very good for racing and I'm lovin' it.
Jay, thanks for the numbers!! I was most impressed with the way LANI finished, another bad start but so was the start in the UAE. I like him for the Belmont. What do you think about his finish and Belmont chances?
+Christopher Wilson (The Golden FOX) Yes, the bad start. I have to take another look at Lani, thank you very much! You're right, 1 1/2 mile might do it for him.
+Jay C. Nehf I had 6 keyed in 1st, with 1,7,10,11 in ALL my SPR and SH5 tickets on Saturday. looking for Lani to win with Cherry Wine, Collected, Fellowship and Stradivari to round out positions 2-4 and 2-5. So I trust Lani to get it done in 3 weeks. he needs to focus and he has the breeding and power to blow these Uncle Mo and Curlin colts away.
If Nyquist backs off from the front speed, sits back, allows the race to slow down, and then uses his tactical speed just like he did in the Kentucky Derby he wins this race once again. Once I saw him break beautifully like always, saw the speed was from the 2 on the inside, I thought wow this is perfect. He's going to back off, settle in 2nd or 3rd again, and get the exact same trip as in the derby. Like many already have said, the horse did not lose the race, his connections did. Nyquist gave his usual gutsy performance. Look at what happened to the horse whom he got in the speed dual with. Dropped way back. I will certainly be betting Nyquist for the Belmont. He's the better horse, and will have the better price. The connections will have learned their lessons entering New York after paying a costly price.
+Ty Rose I could have cried when I saw the first quarter time. And I think I heard O'Neill's sphyncter squeak at the same time! I hope you're right because I just can't write off Nyquist over this.
Donnie Von Hemel is probably kicking himself for not running Suddenbreakingnews in this race.....with his turn of foot and running style, he would've been no worse than 2nd in this race....he is a much better horse and has better closing kick than Cherry Wine.
+Griffith Harland It sure looked that way to me. I thought for a moment there would be an inquiry. Interesting that no one else has mentioned that. you have a sharp eye Griff
+Strange Days I think Exaggerator has lately matured and became different than the one who raced Nyquist before. At the KY Derby Exaggerator had a chance but was not positioned well during the race. Secondly after the preakness, I noticed that Nyquist doesnt have the personality of a champion due to his style at running in the end of the race, but Exaggerator has a very string personality to drive very well through hell.
What we may be seeing here is two horses coming into peak condition at two different times. Both really good horses and personally, I give the edge to Nyquist up to 1 1/4 mile. After that I'm not so sure.
+Jay C. Nef There both Good but Exaggerator's A game is On A muddy Track. With Nyquist out of the Belmont its going to be Interesting if it comes up A fast track.
Exaggerator ran a nice race, he runs well in the mud. I didn't expect Exaggerator to win, until I saw that it would be wet. Nyquist went out fast, but not too fast, perhaps the mud on the tail did something to him? I know we both thought the Dersomaux's were giving the Triple Crown to Nyquist by running Exaggerator at Pimlico, and not saving him for the Belmont! Goes to show what we know! LOL!! I think Exaggerator runs away from Nyquist at the Belmont, he's stronger when the race is longer and that plays into his hands. We'll see if Nyquist has a kick in the Belmont.
+Daunte D. Burksizm That has not been established. Nyquist has won the longest race they have been in which is the Kentucky Derby. Because Exaggerator is a closer people just assume he is stronger with more distance for some reason.
+Strange Days It has been established. In the Derby, Exaggerator ran at a far higher speed than Nyquist, he just ran out of real estate as he was clearly running Nyquist down. Exaggerator has shown that he deccelerates at a slower rate than Nyquist, which clearly makes him the favorite for the Belmont at 1.5 miles. If Nyquist is running the same race he ran at the Kentucky or Florida Derby, Exaggerator will run right by him at 1.25M mark. The numbers from the last 2 races they've ran against each other confirm this.
+Strange Days He can have a different strategy all he wants, when you have a horse that decelerrates slower than you do, the only option you truly have is to run him out, its not like Nyquist maintains his speed better than Exaggerator, if Nyquist goes out slower, he's playing right into the hands of Exaggerator.
These two horses, with their very different running styles, present a real challenge to handicappers. They are close enough in the final yards to make them a truly memorable pair. I hope Nyquist recovers and makes it to the Belmont, but he had an elevated white cell count a few weeks back and this fever now maybe what was brewing back then.
Glad to see that Finally someone agrees that this fever / elevated WBC may have caused Nyquist's performance in the Preakness. Seems as if most of what I read is by all those who try to blame the jockey or the trainer and that is not fair to Nyquist, O'Neill, or Gutierrez. A colt doesn't win 8 straight races IF he isn't an athlete who improves with each race and is considered by the majority to be the best of the current 3 year olds. He still has some good--maybe even some great--races to come in his 3 year old campaign and hopefully into his 4th year as well.
It was so obvious that Exaggerator was the better horse in the Kentucky Derby, I stated that Exaggerator would blow the doors off Nyquist in the Preakness and the Belmont, make all the excuses for Nyquist, the better horse prevailed and he will do it again, good jobKeith and Kent.
+debra fentress I believe we will come away shocked at the outcome of the Belmont Stakes in 3 weeks. Shocked the way "?" wins or "?" ran in the stretch. It's horses running on a track. In a race. Anything can happen in a horse race. Fast track? We're in for a real fun horse race.
+debra fentress Are you a complete lunatic. Exaggerator had more race track to catch Nyquist in the Derby and didn't come close. Nyquist was under a hand ride and Exaggerator was all out so how you think Exaggerator is a better horse than Nyquist in any race is crazy. Did you see Where Uncle Lino finished after trying to keep up with Nyquist due to the fact that either Doug O'neill is truly and idiot and wanted to try to wire the field, or maybe Mario didn't realize how fast the 1st 1/4 was, or maybe Nyquist was just being Stubborn and did not want to be passed once he was in front. If Nyquist let the 2 horse go and he sat back in third on the outside, he wins this race easily. He went around Exaggerator and it almost liked like he was gong to catch him again. Exaggerator loves the Mud and for you to state "the better horse prevailed" shows you know nothing about Horse racing. When 2 horses race 5 times and one of them wins 4 of those races pretty easily in hand, then throws in a clunker because the change of tactics did not fit his running style and he get's beat by a very good horse, but a horse that is not nearly as talented as Nyquist. Nyquist is 4 for 5 against Exaggerator, remember that. Nyquist did all the running stupidly getting into a speed duel with a bad horse that finished 30 lengths back of Exaggerator. After those fractions Nyquist was right there and I'm glad he lost because People like you are going to bet Exaggerator thinking he is the better horse and I will get decent odds on a race that Nyquist will win easily @ Belmont. He is going to sit back mid pack, and if he moves when Exaggerator moves, Nyquist wins easily because he is by far the better horse. He did run the derby over 2 seconds faster than American Pharaoh so maybe you don't realize how good this horse is. This is why the Triple Crown is so hard to win, you have to run 3 perfect races where you have to avoid traffic, stick with your gameplan, and hope for the best. Doug O'neill got cocky and it cost him.
Jay, I really enjoy your videos. Lack of Trakus really hinders things for us, but can you make any estimate on peak speed for Nyquist in this race? Do you feel he approached or exceeded 43 Mph? Obviously Nyquist went out too fast but I have to hand it to Desormeaux as he took full advantage of the error by Gutierrez and ran the perfect ground saving trip with Exaggerator along the rail.
+Tom Pavlock You are right on all points. If Nyquist averaged 40 mph in the first quarter he must have peaked at something like 43 mph, but no, there is no way to calculate it. Trakus tells you a lot about a horse's performance that you can't get without it. I particularly like peak speed (shows what tactical speed horse is capable of and I've seen over 44 mph!) and the delta number (actual number of feet each horse travels and whether it's more or less than the winner). I was surprised to see over 70 feet further in some cases. That's 3 or 4 lengths! I also think the animation together with these numbers can tell you a lot about a jockey.
+Ambyr Clement You know ( that's my Christopher Walken impersonation), this thing between Nyquist and Exaggerator is turning into a real chess game. Exaggerator seems to have only one way of running while Nyquist is a little more flexible. We know what Desormeaux will do in the Belmont, but I can't wait to see what O'Neill will come up with. It's going to be a great race.
As everyone should know by now, Nyquist has an infection, and will miss the Belmont. I believe this had something to do with his poor showing {no pun intended}. However, Exaggerator is a known mud runner, and I had him to win. Once I saw the track condition I loaded up! Cherry Wine is coming on strong, and I expect it to be these two again at the Belmont. Poor Exaggerator; he can finally best Nyquist and everyone {myself included} wants to make excuses for him wining. Change his name to Rodney Dangerfield!
LOL! You are so right. I agree. Remember Nyquist's elevated white cell count before the Derby? I don't think Exaggerator will be handicapped by a fast track. He will be the one to beat.
I consider it all a clean slate now. Exaggerator didn't get a fair run in the Derby, and Nyquist didn't get a fair run in the Preakness. At the Belmont, they will be truly equal as both of them competed in the same races and is just as tired as the other. I hope both of them have a fair race so it can truly be settled. =)
I have been handicapping 9 months (since Sept 1). WHY on EARTH would Nyquist and Mario G. run the first 1/4 and 1/2 with 2,4 who we ELIMINATED from being able to finish in the top 5? why? If Mario G was AP last year - we'd STILL be waiting for a Triple crown winner... :( Our final SPR and SH5 tickets had 3,5/5,3 in 1nd and 2nd, with 1,7,10,11 in 3,4,5 place boxed there. didnt figure Nyquist finishing 3rd LOl oh well
There is no mystery here. Same as the Derby. But here Nyqist tired, ran out of gas because he was keeping record time with those front runners. How many other horses did he beat? Like Citation won only two races at five, but came in second in all the other races. Nyquist has nothing to be ashamed about. He was beat because they should not have raced him up front. I thought they were going to let him settle on a really sloppy track. If Ex went right to the front like NY would he finish first? We'll never know since he stayed back and didn't kill himself in the mud. What did you say about muddy tracks and drag. Also the video on whipping. Kent was whipping the hell out of Ex down the home stretch. The O'Neills were much too confident, like Dutrow and Big Brown. Well, Ny now knows the taste of defeat. Perhaps that is good for him. I still think he is a better horse than Ex, and if he can ran a mile and a half well, it will be a great Belmont!!!! P.S. You can see why I don't bet....Even tho I did like Cherry Wine, who ran a great race, with a lousy pedigree.
woooa If Nyquist won the Derby is because he is the better horse but if Exaggeretor wins the Preakness is because the mud, the fever of nyquist and the bad trip he had!!! What a subjebtive argument! First of all Exaggeretor had a bad trip in the Derby, Kent said so and the cameras did too...BUt for you guys that does not matter, only matter when does happen to Nyquist...
No one's giving you a hard time. That was an accurate analysis. Still don't know why Uncle Lino and Awesome Speed thought they should try to get ahead of Nyquist at the top. Seems like letting Nyquist set pace and sitting right off him would have given them their best chance to finish ITM. Can't imagine they really thought a suicide mission was in their interest. Nyquist is still best 3yo. I don't know if running in Belmont is smart at this point.
Yeah, it seems like such an obvious bad choice. O'neill's much smarter than that. Not sure what comment you're referring to but I want to encourage good debate, not supress it, and there have been many, many good rebuttals to these videos. Being a horseman myself, it's a real revelation to find fans out there who take the sport as seriously as we do. Thanks for your comments!
I don't think 1:58.3 is amazing speed. Almost the same as AmPhar last year on a muddy track. Slowest since Fabius, a son of Citation, in 1956. And I'm sure there were muddy tracks between these years. Once again, it is easy to see why. After the first quarter mile, already the speedy h orses were beginning to tire, including NY. Like the Santa Anita, EX looks like he is speeding past horses, and h e is...very tired horses who spent their speed in the first mile, but not Ex who saved his speed until the final. I wonder how slow he was running when h e was 11 lengths back. Oh, and it seems that Mario checked Ny in a strange move to get off the rail and run around Ex on the home stretch. Why did he do that?
It Would have Been a Great Race on a Fast Track with Collected, Stradivari and Nyquist... Cant believe they Run on Muddy Tracks since it Hurts horses more.. But who cares about horses anyways.. Besides Sensitive People.. Not the Greedy 1's
Wow...I really think you're doing some superior handicapping! The combination of the combination of statistics, skill, style, race strategy is refreshing. Add in the articulate video analysis and markable! I'm a fan. Thank you.
+Megan Kara Maxwell
Thanks. It's funny, though. I don't consider myself a handicapper. I'm just a horseman who is having fun pointing out the details many people might miss. It's up to you guys to put that information to good use. And some of you commentors are really sharp.
Thanks for posting these, I'm learning so much about horseracing every time I watch.
My pleasure!
Watch what Kent and Keith say at the news conference after the race. They tell you the 3 reasons that their horse won. He recovers quickly after a tough race, Kent knew the rail was the best lane to be in, he loves running on mud. The Belmont will be GREAT FUN.
+Kurt Ratliff Yes all this plus Nyquist got one of the worst rides he could have possibly gotten kind of makes it easy for Exaggerator.
and Nyquist didnt blow it. his jockey and trainer did.
+Ambyr Clement
I have to agree with you. But my titles have to be short and sweet
+Ambyr Clement Yep their game plan completely back fired. They didn't want to get boxed in on the rail so they blasted Nyquist out at a ridiculous pace while Exaggerator just sat back and rode the rail and waited.
All the races that day had a 23 sec. first quarter. This race had a 22 sec. quarter. Also Uncle Lino came up lame, that tells us Nyquist got used up early. Exaggerator looked real good before the race. He was crisp all the way to the gate. You are right about Exaggerator running his normal race. 1:58 was rather slow. Quick first quarter though. The average time for the Preakness is 1:55. The Belmont is getting interesting. I hope Cherry Wine's odds hang above 8-1. I should see some horses at Fair Hill Training Center before moving on to New York. I live a half hour from both Fair Hill and Bolton. Usually get some good info pre Belmont. Question for you: How come the horses tails were not tied. I thought this was done in mud to prevent build up in the tail. Always, Thanks for your videos.
+Bob McKee
Were you at Santa Anita this morning? That was the buzz there, the early race times. Good question about the tails. when I was a kid at Washington Park back in the 60's and 70's I would have been fired if I showed up at the paddock on a rainy race day without my horse's tail tied. Trainers cry like babies if they're assigned an extra 2 pounds but then fail to tie the tail in the mud. Have you ever felt the weight of a wet, muddy tail?
Trakus is such a essential tool for handicapping.
+Glenn Middleton
You don't appreciate it till you don't have it!
Spot on Jay. While I loved Exaggerator in this race and take nothing away from Desormeaux's strategy; IMHO, If O'Neill chooses to allow Gutierrez to run from a little more "off the pace", to, say, the 3/4 pole, and begin his move with Exaggerator, the Belmont stretch will prove itself very interesting. Nyquist has won from the lead and in the stretch. Wait and see. Thank you Jay. Always a nice job.
+kansasisaband
Thanks Kansas. I like your startegy and I will be surprised if we don't see exactly that.
What happened to Nyquist definitely mirrors what happened to Riva Ridge. The change tactics for the Preakness, as they thought his running style wouldn't win it. So I think if thats anything to go by, Nyquist could win the Belmont, but I really like Exaggerator
+Evie
Yes, and that's what happened to Mohaymen in the Fl Derby and Empire Maker in the Ky Derby. Frankel thought he had so much the best horse he could go 5 wide all the way and stay out of trouble. Hah!
The move that Gutierrez made to shift outside on the backstretch and give up rail position to Exaggerator...asking Nyquist to slow and restart was a critical error that cemented the win for Exaggerator. As for Belmont, Nyquist wants no part of 1.5 miles...would not be surprised if ownership skips to protect stud value. Look for a deep closer to win like Exaggerator, SudenBreakingNews, Cherry Wine or Destin...assuming dry track.
+Vince Silvaer
So you would think but nothing is normal this year! Nyquist is already committed to the Belmont. And that will make things very interesting and intense. I think this is very good for racing and I'm lovin' it.
Jay, thanks for the numbers!! I was most impressed with the way LANI finished, another bad start but so was the start in the UAE. I like him for the Belmont. What do you think about his finish and Belmont chances?
+Christopher Wilson (The Golden FOX)
Yes, the bad start. I have to take another look at Lani, thank you very much! You're right, 1 1/2 mile might do it for him.
+Jay C. Nehf I had 6 keyed in 1st, with 1,7,10,11 in ALL my SPR and SH5 tickets on Saturday. looking for Lani to win with Cherry Wine, Collected, Fellowship and Stradivari to round out positions 2-4 and 2-5. So I trust Lani to get it done in 3 weeks. he needs to focus and he has the breeding and power to blow these Uncle Mo and Curlin colts away.
+Joe Brunner
I agree, Lani will impress in the Belmont, I hope he wont be bet down to bad.
+Christopher Wilson (The Golden FOX)
That would make it a memorable, newsworthy year!
How about Frosted in the Met Mile, 132 3/5?
If Nyquist backs off from the front speed, sits back, allows the race to slow down, and then uses his tactical speed just like he did in the Kentucky Derby he wins this race once again. Once I saw him break beautifully like always, saw the speed was from the 2 on the inside, I thought wow this is perfect. He's going to back off, settle in 2nd or 3rd again, and get the exact same trip as in the derby.
Like many already have said, the horse did not lose the race, his connections did. Nyquist gave his usual gutsy performance. Look at what happened to the horse whom he got in the speed dual with. Dropped way back.
I will certainly be betting Nyquist for the Belmont. He's the better horse, and will have the better price. The connections will have learned their lessons entering New York after paying a costly price.
+Ty Rose
I could have cried when I saw the first quarter time. And I think I heard O'Neill's sphyncter squeak at the same time! I hope you're right because I just can't write off Nyquist over this.
Donnie Von Hemel is probably kicking himself for not running Suddenbreakingnews in this race.....with his turn of foot and running style, he would've been no worse than 2nd in this race....he is a much better horse and has better closing kick than Cherry Wine.
Welp, no Nyquist means the Trifecta and Superfecta may pay well for the Belmont!
Yep, bummer. Would have been an exciting situation but they are doing the right thing for the horse.
Exaggerator took Nyquist ground and was a Danger to Jockeys
+Griffith Harland It sure looked that way to me. I thought for a moment there would be an inquiry. Interesting that no one else has mentioned that. you have a sharp eye Griff
Only reason why Exaggerator didn't win Kentucky Derby? He wasn't unleashed 'till very late. He's faster, quicker, swifter, stronger. Period.
+montani3semper Lol..that explains why Nyquist has one 4 out of the five races they have been in. Come on man.
+Strange Days I think Exaggerator has lately matured and became different than the one who raced Nyquist before. At the KY Derby Exaggerator had a chance but was not positioned well during the race. Secondly after the preakness, I noticed that Nyquist doesnt have the personality of a champion due to his style at running in the end of the race, but Exaggerator has a very string personality to drive very well through hell.
What we may be seeing here is two horses coming into peak condition at two different times. Both really good horses and personally, I give the edge to Nyquist up to 1 1/4 mile. After that I'm not so sure.
+Jay C. Nef There both Good but Exaggerator's A game is On A muddy Track. With Nyquist out of the Belmont its going to be Interesting if it comes up A fast track.
Exaggerator ran a nice race, he runs well in the mud. I didn't expect Exaggerator to win, until I saw that it would be wet. Nyquist went out fast, but not too fast, perhaps the mud on the tail did something to him? I know we both thought the Dersomaux's were giving the Triple Crown to Nyquist by running Exaggerator at Pimlico, and not saving him for the Belmont! Goes to show what we know! LOL!! I think Exaggerator runs away from Nyquist at the Belmont, he's stronger when the race is longer and that plays into his hands. We'll see if Nyquist has a kick in the Belmont.
+Daunte D. Burksizm That has not been established. Nyquist has won the longest race they have been in which is the Kentucky Derby. Because Exaggerator is a closer people just assume he is stronger with more distance for some reason.
+Strange Days It has been established. In the Derby, Exaggerator ran at a far higher speed than Nyquist, he just ran out of real estate as he was clearly running Nyquist down. Exaggerator has shown that he deccelerates at a slower rate than Nyquist, which clearly makes him the favorite for the Belmont at 1.5 miles. If Nyquist is running the same race he ran at the Kentucky or Florida Derby, Exaggerator will run right by him at 1.25M mark. The numbers from the last 2 races they've ran against each other confirm this.
***** Nyquist will have a different strategy for the Belmont but we shall see.
+Strange Days He can have a different strategy all he wants, when you have a horse that decelerrates slower than you do, the only option you truly have is to run him out, its not like Nyquist maintains his speed better than Exaggerator, if Nyquist goes out slower, he's playing right into the hands of Exaggerator.
These two horses, with their very different running styles, present a real challenge to handicappers. They are close enough in the final yards to make them a truly memorable pair. I hope Nyquist recovers and makes it to the Belmont, but he had an elevated white cell count a few weeks back and this fever now maybe what was brewing back then.
Glad to see that Finally someone agrees that this fever / elevated WBC may have caused Nyquist's performance in the Preakness. Seems as if most of what I read is by all those who try to blame the jockey or the trainer and that is not fair to Nyquist, O'Neill, or Gutierrez. A colt doesn't win 8 straight races IF he isn't an athlete who improves with each race and is considered by the majority to be the best of the current 3 year olds. He still has some good--maybe even some great--races to come in his 3 year old campaign and hopefully into his 4th year as well.
It was so obvious that Exaggerator was the better horse in the Kentucky Derby, I stated that Exaggerator would blow the doors off Nyquist in the Preakness and the Belmont, make all the excuses for Nyquist, the better horse prevailed and he will do it again, good jobKeith and Kent.
Exaggerator is definitely not a better horse than Nyquist. It was an absolutely perfect set up for Exaggerator. Thats why i bet him big!!!!
+debra fentress I believe we will come away shocked at the outcome of the Belmont Stakes in 3 weeks. Shocked the way "?" wins or "?" ran in the stretch. It's horses running on a track. In a race. Anything can happen in a horse race. Fast track? We're in for a real fun horse race.
+debra fentress Are you a complete lunatic. Exaggerator had more race track to catch Nyquist in the Derby and didn't come close. Nyquist was under a hand ride and Exaggerator was all out so how you think Exaggerator is a better horse than Nyquist in any race is crazy. Did you see Where Uncle Lino finished after trying to keep up with Nyquist due to the fact that either Doug O'neill is truly and idiot and wanted to try to wire the field, or maybe Mario didn't realize how fast the 1st 1/4 was, or maybe Nyquist was just being Stubborn and did not want to be passed once he was in front. If Nyquist let the 2 horse go and he sat back in third on the outside, he wins this race easily. He went around Exaggerator and it almost liked like he was gong to catch him again. Exaggerator loves the Mud and for you to state "the better horse prevailed" shows you know nothing about Horse racing. When 2 horses race 5 times and one of them wins 4 of those races pretty easily in hand, then throws in a clunker because the change of tactics did not fit his running style and he get's beat by a very good horse, but a horse that is not nearly as talented as Nyquist. Nyquist is 4 for 5 against Exaggerator, remember that. Nyquist did all the running stupidly getting into a speed duel with a bad horse that finished 30 lengths back of Exaggerator. After those fractions Nyquist was right there and I'm glad he lost because People like you are going to bet Exaggerator thinking he is the better horse and I will get decent odds on a race that Nyquist will win easily @ Belmont. He is going to sit back mid pack, and if he moves when Exaggerator moves, Nyquist wins easily because he is by far the better horse. He did run the derby over 2 seconds faster than American Pharaoh so maybe you don't realize how good this horse is. This is why the Triple Crown is so hard to win, you have to run 3 perfect races where you have to avoid traffic, stick with your gameplan, and hope for the best. Doug O'neill got cocky and it cost him.
+kansasisaband
Yes! No Triple Crown, but the Belmont will settle things between N & E.
+Matt Duchon
Yeow! I'm sending your resume' to TVG. You should be a commentator! Good stuff.
Jay, I really enjoy your videos. Lack of Trakus really hinders things for us, but can you make any estimate on peak speed for Nyquist in this race? Do you feel he approached or exceeded 43 Mph? Obviously Nyquist went out too fast but I have to hand it to Desormeaux as he took full advantage of the error by Gutierrez and ran the perfect ground saving trip with Exaggerator along the rail.
+Tom Pavlock
You are right on all points. If Nyquist averaged 40 mph in the first quarter he must have peaked at something like 43 mph, but no, there is no way to calculate it. Trakus tells you a lot about a horse's performance that you can't get without it. I particularly like peak speed (shows what tactical speed horse is capable of and I've seen over 44 mph!) and the delta number (actual number of feet each horse travels and whether it's more or less than the winner). I was surprised to see over 70 feet further in some cases. That's 3 or 4 lengths! I also think the animation together with these numbers can tell you a lot about a jockey.
plus you have to add that exaggerator love sloppy track ...he wins before in a sloppy so easy like a champ
well Nyquist will win the belmont
+Ambyr Clement
You know ( that's my Christopher Walken impersonation), this thing between Nyquist and Exaggerator is turning into a real chess game. Exaggerator seems to have only one way of running while Nyquist is a little more flexible. We know what Desormeaux will do in the Belmont, but I can't wait to see what O'Neill will come up with. It's going to be a great race.
+Jay C. Nehf I already know who will win...I have a strong feeling. It WILL be Nyquist
As everyone should know by now, Nyquist has an infection, and will miss the Belmont. I believe this had something to do with his poor showing {no pun intended}. However, Exaggerator is a known mud runner, and I had him to win. Once I saw the track condition I loaded up! Cherry Wine is coming on strong, and I expect it to be these two again at the Belmont. Poor Exaggerator; he can finally best Nyquist and everyone {myself included} wants to make excuses for him wining. Change his name to Rodney Dangerfield!
LOL! You are so right. I agree. Remember Nyquist's elevated white cell count before the Derby? I don't think Exaggerator will be handicapped by a fast track. He will be the one to beat.
I consider it all a clean slate now. Exaggerator didn't get a fair run in the Derby, and Nyquist didn't get a fair run in the Preakness. At the Belmont, they will be truly equal as both of them competed in the same races and is just as tired as the other. I hope both of them have a fair race so it can truly be settled. =)
I have been handicapping 9 months (since Sept 1). WHY on EARTH would Nyquist and Mario G. run the first 1/4 and 1/2 with 2,4 who we ELIMINATED from being able to finish in the top 5? why? If Mario G was AP last year - we'd STILL be waiting for a Triple crown winner... :( Our final SPR and SH5 tickets had 3,5/5,3 in 1nd and 2nd, with 1,7,10,11 in 3,4,5 place boxed there. didnt figure Nyquist finishing 3rd LOl oh well
U still wouldnt have won the super hi 5. U didnt have Lani....
There is no mystery here. Same as the Derby. But here Nyqist tired, ran out of gas because he was keeping record time with those front runners. How many other horses did he beat? Like Citation won only two races at five, but came in second in all the other races. Nyquist has nothing to be ashamed about. He was beat because they should not have raced him up front. I thought they were going to let him settle on a really sloppy track. If Ex went right to the front like NY would he finish first? We'll never know since he stayed back and didn't kill himself in the mud.
What did you say about muddy tracks and drag. Also the video on whipping. Kent was whipping the hell out of Ex down the home stretch. The O'Neills were much too confident, like Dutrow and Big Brown. Well, Ny now knows the taste of defeat. Perhaps that is good for him. I still think he is a better horse than Ex, and if he can ran a mile and a half well, it will be a great Belmont!!!! P.S. You can see why I don't bet....Even tho I did like Cherry Wine, who ran a great race, with a lousy pedigree.
Can you explain lousy pedigree. Thanks
woooa If Nyquist won the Derby is because he is the better horse but if Exaggeretor wins the Preakness is because the mud, the fever of nyquist and the bad trip he had!!! What a subjebtive argument! First of all Exaggeretor had a bad trip in the Derby, Kent said so and the cameras did too...BUt for you guys that does not matter, only matter when does happen to Nyquist...
+Ernesto Garcia
The Belmont will be decisive
No one's giving you a hard time. That was an accurate analysis.
Still don't know why Uncle Lino and Awesome Speed thought they should try to get ahead of Nyquist at the top. Seems like letting Nyquist set pace and sitting right off him would have given them their best chance to finish ITM. Can't imagine they really thought a suicide mission was in their interest. Nyquist is still best 3yo. I don't know if running in Belmont is smart at this point.
Yeah, it seems like such an obvious bad choice. O'neill's much smarter than that. Not sure what comment you're referring to but I want to encourage good debate, not supress it, and there have been many, many good rebuttals to these videos. Being a horseman myself, it's a real revelation to find fans out there who take the sport as seriously as we do. Thanks for your comments!
I don't think 1:58.3 is amazing speed. Almost the same as AmPhar last year on a muddy track. Slowest since Fabius, a son of Citation, in 1956. And I'm sure there were muddy tracks between these years. Once again, it is easy to see why. After the first quarter mile, already the speedy h orses were beginning to tire, including NY. Like the Santa Anita, EX looks like he is speeding past horses, and h e is...very tired horses who spent their speed in the first mile, but not Ex who saved his speed until the final. I wonder how slow he was running when h e was 11 lengths back.
Oh, and it seems that Mario checked Ny in a strange move to get off the rail and run around Ex on the home stretch. Why did he do that?
It Would have Been a Great Race on a Fast Track with Collected, Stradivari and Nyquist...
Cant believe they Run on Muddy Tracks since it Hurts horses more.. But who cares about horses anyways.. Besides Sensitive People.. Not the Greedy 1's
People cry because nyquist lost lmao