The 1 in 1,000,000 INSANE Catan Game
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- Опубліковано 2 жов 2024
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Dylan with two cards being told he’s close to making the city 😂
That was peak Colonist honestly lol
😂😂😂
Dylan basically being a parent with his tips "Doing that is a mistake" "Not doing that is a mistake"
one time I played a Catan game with over 40 moves and not a single 7. it was the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen
For a 40-move game, it's a 1 in 1470 occurence; unbelievably, it's not that unbelievable depending on how many games you've played.
@@danielspivak3926 that sounded wrong, but I went and checked the math and… yeah. Weirdly low
@@danielspivak3926
This game was over 13x more unlikely than your game.
40 move game is a very short game
@@danielspivak3926 hey, are you a descendant of the famous Spivak who wrote the calculus book?
hey everyone!! This is was a intense crazy game, heart was pounding for the last 3-4 rounds, I knew if I didn’t lie to Dylan about the getting a Knight instead of a RB i would of been target and it would of taken win out of my hand so i knew i had to lie otherwise i was not goin to win this game. I usually only lie when it comes down to game winning or losing decision. so that 4;1 trades in the beginning literally made my game, thank Dylan luv ya buddy!!!
Good game bro
dont worry about it bro, good game!
I think that lying there is 100% fine. You didn't even volunteer that lie, he asked you what your dev was himself. It's like "If you don't want to hear lies, don't ask me what my dev cards are".
@@catanace1741 if you have to chose between losing and lying than its okay to lie every time
Yeah when it comes to the end game and people are 1 point away all bets are off as far as promises and honesty.
Ill be honest. I dont like that starting position and I think it sets you up poorly. You did get screwed over with all the 2 rolls, but only being on 4 numbers with two of them being a 3 and a 4 is asking for a rough game. The only reason you got as close as you did is because youre pretty great at trading and influencing, but this was a table of players weaker than you, and a higher production starting spot wouldve been enough to get you the win.
nah his starting position is great. He has wheat locked down basically in 90% of games. 2 rolling 10 times though kills the set up.
Psshhhh Idk about you but i aint weaker then them. lol stats dont show everything lol
Terrible take. Statistically he had a very strong position, he just got screwed by the numbers rolling poorly and then the other player lying about the dev card.
@@QYXP just reinforcing my point. Placing there leaves yourself open to being unlucky with dice rolls because you are only on 4 numbers. In a higher production spot he could have easily convinced whichever player took his original spot to trade him wheat because he is a strong trader. Catan is as much about playing the opponents as it is the statistics.
I don't know who these people are but I agree. playing the entire game with only 4 numbers and no chance to build a road ever is not good. expecially considering that whenever you get closer to the win your best tile will get blocked non stop so you will be playing out of 3 numbers. so expect full orbits with no resources at all...
It was clear that 8-10 wood was better. took only 2 brick to get to the wheat port which should have been easy to get considering the value of the wheat he had. that would have also screwed purple game btw
Him turning on epic music manually is so funny XD
Dylan saying being a liar is a good strat and then straight up believing purple that he has a knight
I think changing your mouse to make it easier to follow would help the viewers a lot 👍
In my future videos the mouse will be a lot bigger. These games are a bit older.
Ideas to improve Catan, 7 can move either the robber or a priest who blesses the land and adds +1 output to their hex. When a player has half the number of victory points needed showing the last place player can do 3-1 trades
I like those ideas! Thanks for sharing
9:00 You should port your 2 wheats for a brick and settle once he doesn't trade you
I assume he forgot the wheat port the entire game. The Twitch live chat also mentioned that.
I thought it was some sort of challenge where he wasn't supposed to use the port... Didn't make any sense otherwise
@@invisiblechild2006 it wasnt. he probably forgot it because he didnt got any excess wheat to port in the entire game. except for that one instance.
the early 8's got blocked and the wheat he got he either used it himself or got pretty good deals with it.
8-10 wood was clearly better than 8-3 wheat. Adds a resource and 3 full peeps to your setup. didn't need to start on the wheat port, you were better off trading it anyways, early game at least. could get it eventually, no one would have gone for it. you could even build on the 3:1 first and then on the wheat port. afterall considering that was a pretty shitty setup imo it's very impressive you almost won.
Man being colourblind makes it difficult to see whats happening when theres both purple(?) and blue in the same game
Soooo did you or did you not forget about your port?
Having that many of more 2s is a 0.005% chance, or a 1/20000.
Not quite 1/1000000
not every underdog story ends happily 😞
That’s the most I’ve ever seen 2 roll in my life. When my friends play catan we do a house rule where 2=12 and 12=2 so they roll more often, but never as much as this. Insane odds
Black really should have won after getting so much production from the 2.
I haven't watched yet, but I hope the 1 in a million game means it's either a 12 point win, or an 11 point loss.
This is every game I play. I place on 8? Only 6's roll. I place 6? Only 8. Today I played one where some super toxic guy was shit talking everyone, I checked afterwards, his two 8 tiles rolled 12 times, my 6 rolled 5.
Dang one of your worst games played lol. You forgot about your port, did some horrid trades, could've easily helped blue cutoff purple and extended the game... LOL
Every Catan video where someone’s on a wheat port, people in the comments keep going on incorrectly about how they “forgot to use it”. These commenters are undervaluing wheat, the best resource in the game. Watch how Bo Peng plays, he will sometimes do 1:1 to get a wheat even if it doesn’t immediately do anything for his hand, because he knows holding wheat and taking it out of opponents’ hands is more valuable. Players like Dylan, Drew, and Bo don’t forget they’re on a port. Porting wheat is just not something that pops to the front of their mind to consider very often, similar to how a chess grandmaster doesn’t waste time considering any of the obviously bad moves, because they don’t even occur to them the way they’re seeing the board.
He was holding for the ore mono for a while too
Lol Dylan has literally forgotten he was on a port before. Only a few videos prior he did that exact thing.
When your 2 rolls 10 times and you still can't win...SAD, poor Black
I like how Grando managed that, bring him back for a vc game!
I recently got 17 rolls of 7 in a single game, it was an avg 1.2 roll per turn rotation
You played that game very well!
I think your math may be a little bit off, Dylan! 😅
The actual probability of this happening is one in 22,965, so like one in thirty thousand. Your thumbnail and title contradict each other, with your thumbnail saying one in one hundred thousand, and your title saying one in a million. Both very far off from each other, and the truth! 1 in 1,000,000 is multiple orders of magnitude off!
The numbers didn't seem right, so initially I ran the numbers to make sure and got the 22,965 figure. Then, just to make sure I hadn't made a mistake somewhere, I ran a Monte Carlo experiment (which is where you just do the thing a bunch to see if it matches your predictions) where I threw dice 75 times in a row 91,860 times. That way, I would expect a game with at least this many 2s about 4 times. I got 6 times, so my prediction appeared to be correct! If it was one in a hundred thousand like the thumbnail says, then it would occur roughly once, and occurring 6 times would be very unlikely. If it was one in a million, it just would not happen 6 times. That'd be a miracle!
But I get it, the video looks more attractive this way, and I don't expect you to change your title (though who knows, maybe a more specific number will lead to more clicks). But golly did it bother me!😝Thanks for the brilliant gameplay!
- Kayla
I just ran it again, this time 183,720 times, and a game with at least as many 2s as your game should have happened 8 times if my prediction was correct. It happened 9 times. So I'm fairly confident my calculations are right!
The other interesting statistic is how many times you would expect a game with EXACTLY 10 2s. It doesn't actually change that much, that should happen 1 in 27,526 times, if my math is right.
Once again, to check, I threw 75 dice 220,208 times, with the expectation that I would get EXACTLY this many 2s 8 times. I did it and it happened 7 times, whereas if it was one in a hundred thousand we would see it closer to 2 times.
You may need to speak to your calculator, Dylan!
Great video, But 0,001% is 1 in 100 000, Gotta put an extra zero in the thumbnail :D
It's not meant to literally mean 1 in a million. The 0.01% Is just to show the viewers that it's an incredibly rare event. The odds of rolling a 2 with 2 dice at least 10 times in 75 turns is 0.000412% Or 4.12 in a million using binomial probability 🤓
@@kidkid I know its not an exact probability, just the difference between thumbnail and title of the video striked me at first glance :D
You related to rampage?
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. You should’ve built that 3rd city and taken longest road. You had this before blue extended.
Just in case anyone else is a huge nerd like me: the chance of rolling a 2 ten or more times in 75 tries is 0.0000435, or about 1 in 23,000.
Should’ve gone for 3:1 I think. Keeps another settle open. And allows you to use the 2:1. I think you forgot you had a 2:1
Too much cursing for my taste...
I can't believe you forgot about the wheat port throughout the game!
very painful
When was a good moment to port? I didn’t see any
@@SpencerTwiddy 8:53 he could have ported for a settlement on 8 ore
@@martinorell2 Ah okay. Sounds like at that moment he was only willing to lose 1 wheat for a brick
I felt like he gave away a lot of good trades where he could have ported for a similar result without the advantage to the opponent.
I went to a qualifier recently and the last round didn't roll a single 11. So frustrating because my wheat was on that. Likely lost the game because of it. I swear the number rolls are different in real life compared to digitally...5s and 9s are always hot in real life.
Black should have bought a lottery card after the game xD
Did anyone talk about plowing black to the 6 2 after that 4:1 trade? I thought the table maybe interested in that
DyLighted hype! Looking forward to watching!
GOD the 11 and 2 rolls were crazy , i've never seen this shit
Dylan always has the most extreme and enticing titles for his videos. I can't help but to click
Insane twos!
2:20 hey hungry, I am DyLighted
CRAZY ridiculous rolls all game. It hurt me watching it!
First again!
"catan is a game of skill" :))
Unless I'm miscalculating something, there's about 1 in 23,000 (0.00435%) chance of having at least 10 rolls of 2 in 75 rolls.
Using binomial distribution?
Oh neat! I made a similar comment above!
My first comment: "I think your math may be a little bit off, Dylan! 😅
The actual probability of this happening is one in 22,965, so like one in thirty thousand. Your thumbnail and title contradict each other, with your thumbnail saying one in one hundred thousand, and your title saying one in a million. Both very far off from each other, and the truth! 1 in 1,000,000 is multiple orders of magnitude off!
The numbers didn't seem right, so initially I ran the numbers to make sure and got the 22,965 figure. Then, just to make sure I hadn't made a mistake somewhere, I ran a Monte Carlo experiment (which is where you just do the thing a bunch to see if it matches your predictions) where I threw dice 75 times in a row 91,860 times. That way, I would expect a game with at least this many 2s about 4 times. I got 6 times, so my prediction appeared to be correct! If it was one in a hundred thousand like the thumbnail says, then it would occur roughly once, and occurring 6 times would be very unlikely. If it was one in a million, it just would not happen 6 times. That'd be a miracle!
But I get it, the video looks more attractive this way, and I don't expect you to change your title (though who knows, maybe a more specific number will lead to more clicks). But golly did it bother me!😝Thanks for the brilliant gameplay!"
And then my reply to that comment: "I just ran it again, this time 183,720 times, and a game with at least as many 2s as your game should have happened 8 times if my prediction was correct. It happened 9 times. So I'm fairly confident my calculations are right!
The other interesting statistic is how many times you would expect a game with EXACTLY 10 2s. It doesn't actually change that much, that should happen 1 in 27,526 times, if my math is right.
Once again, to check, I threw 75 dice 220,208 times, with the expectation that I would get EXACTLY this many 2s 8 times. I did it and it happened 7 times, whereas if it was one in a hundred thousand we would see it closer to 2 times.
You may need to speak to your calculator, Dylan!"
It's nice to see someone else confirm my math, aside from Monte Carlo 😁
- Kayla
your editing skills are amazing.
that two is gonna haunt Dylan forever
Watching your chat early on is so funny 😂
The 2 that could, huh
Wait I don’t understand like
So around 20:10 you’re deciding between a city and a dev card. You’re saying you Need A VP, which is correct; why not just get the city in that case? Guaranteed VP vs not
Needs to pull the rare vp otherwise he can't win. The city can be done anytime. If he waits and someone else pulls the VP he has no chance of winning.
Actually if he had gone for a city, he would have won
@@Ashwath-p8c yes in hind sight when you can see that the dev card is a knight that he draws. But you don't know that and you need to draw as many devs as possible. Also not sure his next dev card would've been a vp if he hadn't drawn the knight earlier.
@@jordanmartin1932 true, it’s a decision made based on the situation at that time
BeLl CuRvE
You even played Catan on Catan universe? Better in my opinion ,
1 in a million is 0.0001%
god i hate the LOSEEEEE YOU WERE SO FUCKING CLOOOOSE
The odds of rolling 10 2s in 75 rolls is about 1 in 30000! Not 1 in a million but still quite rare
Purple trolled when they blocked the 4 sheep instead of the citied 8 ore. That was ridiculous.
Nah i was fighting him for Army and also keeping sheep out of his (dylan) and Blacks hand is key for me it hurts them both and slows them down. Also i wouldn't of blocked myself.