So essentially Red's decision to race or not is really easy to analyze from a mathematical perspective(and justify why he shouldn't have pointed up). Ignoring shared rolls(that both drew and red need to roll), red needs a 6 + 8 to roll in order to get the settle, Drew just needs a 9. Also, red seems stronger from a board perspective so he is more likely to get robbed/blocked then Drew is, making it even more difficult for hi to get the spot. He also has pretty decent settle alternatives(8,5 corner spots, getting the six wood and wood port).
Though I didn’t crunch the numbers, it felt like I had him beat unless he rolls timely and/or trades. I just didn’t see why the board would feed red that spot given the strength of his starting setup. Sometimes you got to risk it for the biscuit.
The math gets more complicated, because you have to factor in the expected value of getting the spot. If red points up and doesn’t get the spot, how much negative EV do we assign to that? If they do get it, how much positive EV is that worth? Then we would factor in the percentages to each calc like you did to determine the mathematically correct play. The trouble is it’s pretty impossible to calculate EV in catan!
Because red wasted resources trying to play road for some reason, he allowed drew to double play. His setup was goated. He should have dominated unless the table worked together to slow him. No one was beating him to army if he just settled the 8 and the 5 and citied.
it also is more complicated though since they both need 2 10s to roll but red has way better board position. If 10 is the last roll that needs to happen then red has a way better shot at it because on 3 of the 4 turns rolling a 10, red would be the first player to be able to place the settle. of course everything gets more nuanced with 7ing out but im not really doing hard math here just making an observation i havent done the math but the 10 being the last thing needed doesnt seem all that unlikely so i dont think the odds are that bad for red if at all im not talking about the decision in general though, right or wrong to point up i have no clue but i do think the odds are better than you are saying by a substantial margin and i dont think in this case because of turn order you can just cancel the 10s needed
Red started with the best OWS with solid road production to get to the ports quicker than most OWS setups. And then he wasted his game by fighting for a spot he didn’t even need. He couldn’t just take his 23 pips of production with perfect resource distribution and play his game. Had to get mega greedy and it cost him everything.
Don’t wanna talk bad about red but at the end what is he on about “this is why I had to stop you getting that spot”. He wasted resources trying to play road when he started with the overwhelming best OWS lol. Just city and dev. Hammer drew with knights then you’ll never be able to double play. He threw IMO. 10a rolled like crazy but 8 and 5 did too. He should have had a tonne of devs and cities.
I agree his plan wasn’t ideal but equally, I had great rolls and devs. Better for red to make a deal so he doesn’t get hit early on, rushed a city, and goes hard on devs.
Hey dandy how do pros handle extortions/complex trades (I owe you a future brick) that aren't covered in the rules? Like do you guys treat them as binding or can a player just lie (e.g. say they'll give grain for nb then refuse to give the grain)? In colonist a player can lie but they risk pissing off other players who might then target them
Is 1092 as your second placement worth a thought? You can point up to the five ore and now you have coordinated 5s and 9s. With the resources being brick ore and sheep?
It’s not a bad option but I don’t think I would take that. Playing overly defensive is one of the biggest mistakes players make - This is even more true in voice chat games since the balancing mechanisms are more pronounced. I would rather give red a stronger setup but have him be the earlier target and take most of the heat so I can pace under the radar. Like I said at the end, “on paper” red’s setup is amazing but if he’s taking 80% of the early robs, it does hurt his ability to get momentum. I was also hoping by red taking the 6511, he would point left and leave me the entire center of the board since racing is too risky. As the road player, this space + extra production is amazing for me and plays nicely on the brick port.
This tournament, Battle of the States (BOTS), features 3 different game modes - Base, Base Random, and Cities & Knights (C&K). DandyDrew only played Base and Base Random in this tournament but had teammates who played C&K. In C&K, winner is first to get to 13 points.
Nope. I have collected thousands of coins over the years by winning tournaments/events. FrameControl is one of my OG original names though. I only change the name on my ranked account.
Rolled like a god in this one. Nice to see friendly conversation all the way through from everyone
I ended up winning 4/4 this tournament! Guess the Catan Gods were on my side this time 😊
So essentially Red's decision to race or not is really easy to analyze from a mathematical perspective(and justify why he shouldn't have pointed up). Ignoring shared rolls(that both drew and red need to roll), red needs a 6 + 8 to roll in order to get the settle, Drew just needs a 9. Also, red seems stronger from a board perspective so he is more likely to get robbed/blocked then Drew is, making it even more difficult for hi to get the spot. He also has pretty decent settle alternatives(8,5 corner spots, getting the six wood and wood port).
Though I didn’t crunch the numbers, it felt like I had him beat unless he rolls timely and/or trades. I just didn’t see why the board would feed red that spot given the strength of his starting setup. Sometimes you got to risk it for the biscuit.
The math gets more complicated, because you have to factor in the expected value of getting the spot. If red points up and doesn’t get the spot, how much negative EV do we assign to that? If they do get it, how much positive EV is that worth? Then we would factor in the percentages to each calc like you did to determine the mathematically correct play.
The trouble is it’s pretty impossible to calculate EV in catan!
Red also wasted a road witch could have allowed him to get the 10-9-2 spot before drew, evening it out
Because red wasted resources trying to play road for some reason, he allowed drew to double play. His setup was goated. He should have dominated unless the table worked together to slow him. No one was beating him to army if he just settled the 8 and the 5 and citied.
it also is more complicated though since they both need 2 10s to roll but red has way better board position. If 10 is the last roll that needs to happen then red has a way better shot at it because on 3 of the 4 turns rolling a 10, red would be the first player to be able to place the settle. of course everything gets more nuanced with 7ing out but im not really doing hard math here just making an observation
i havent done the math but the 10 being the last thing needed doesnt seem all that unlikely so i dont think the odds are that bad for red if at all
im not talking about the decision in general though, right or wrong to point up i have no clue but i do think the odds are better than you are saying by a substantial margin and i dont think in this case because of turn order you can just cancel the 10s needed
Happy to see new vids dandy!
Wooow that roll at 16:20 was filthy
Even being 3v1 that was an absolute massacre
Nice game man, you’re one of my inspiration to start uploading Catan content
Red started with the best OWS with solid road production to get to the ports quicker than most OWS setups. And then he wasted his game by fighting for a spot he didn’t even need. He couldn’t just take his 23 pips of production with perfect resource distribution and play his game. Had to get mega greedy and it cost him everything.
Don’t wanna talk bad about red but at the end what is he on about “this is why I had to stop you getting that spot”. He wasted resources trying to play road when he started with the overwhelming best OWS lol. Just city and dev. Hammer drew with knights then you’ll never be able to double play. He threw IMO. 10a rolled like crazy but 8 and 5 did too. He should have had a tonne of devs and cities.
I agree his plan wasn’t ideal but equally, I had great rolls and devs. Better for red to make a deal so he doesn’t get hit early on, rushed a city, and goes hard on devs.
Wow. Make it look easy, Drew!
No 6s or 8s? No problem 🙌🏽🙌🏽
the perfeckt game does exist with devs and rolls and stuff :D
what a slaughter
Hey dandy how do pros handle extortions/complex trades (I owe you a future brick) that aren't covered in the rules? Like do you guys treat them as binding or can a player just lie (e.g. say they'll give grain for nb then refuse to give the grain)? In colonist a player can lie but they risk pissing off other players who might then target them
That last turn was incredible.
Is 1092 as your second placement worth a thought? You can point up to the five ore and now you have coordinated 5s and 9s. With the resources being brick ore and sheep?
Is there an argument for your 2nd placement to be the 4, 5 ,11? It takes away the 6,5,11 spot for red.
It’s not a bad option but I don’t think I would take that. Playing overly defensive is one of the biggest mistakes players make - This is even more true in voice chat games since the balancing mechanisms are more pronounced. I would rather give red a stronger setup but have him be the earlier target and take most of the heat so I can pace under the radar. Like I said at the end, “on paper” red’s setup is amazing but if he’s taking 80% of the early robs, it does hurt his ability to get momentum. I was also hoping by red taking the 6511, he would point left and leave me the entire center of the board since racing is too risky. As the road player, this space + extra production is amazing for me and plays nicely on the brick port.
Tables 9 and 10 with 13 point wins? And 10 had second place with 12 points?
What's going on there?
This tournament, Battle of the States (BOTS), features 3 different game modes - Base, Base Random, and Cities & Knights (C&K). DandyDrew only played Base and Base Random in this tournament but had teammates who played C&K. In C&K, winner is first to get to 13 points.
Do u spend money to keep changing ur username?
Nope. I have collected thousands of coins over the years by winning tournaments/events. FrameControl is one of my OG original names though. I only change the name on my ranked account.
1st comment