Ep6. AI Demand / Supply - Models, Agents, the $2T Compute Build Out, Need for More Nuclear & More
Вставка
- Опубліковано 5 сер 2024
- Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the challenge of forecasting the AI Supercycle, Stargate and the massive AI supercomputer build out, AI demand overhyped or underhyped, and current market valuations. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:49 Demand for Compute Is Virtually Unlimited
27:53 Everywhere we Look we are building more and bigger Supercomputers
35:49 The AI Induced Power Gap & The Need for Nuclear
50:21 Valuations / Market Check
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap / altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley / bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod / bg2pod
Shownotes:
What's next for AI agents ft. LangChain's Harrison Chase: • What's next for AI age...
Tesla FSD Model 12: bg2pod/status/176...
Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419: Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
OpenAI CEO on GPT-4 vs GPT-5 | Sam Altman and Lex Fridman: • OpenAI CEO on GPT-4 vs...
Jevons Paradox: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_...
MSFT and OpenAI $100bn supercomputer project: theinformation/st...
Biden administration on how to generate more electricity to meet massive demand for AI computing: axios/status/1774...
Nuclear reactors planned and proposed: world-nuclear.org/information...
U.S. approves $1.5bn loan to restart Michigan nuclear plant: www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/bu...
Josh Wolfe’s talk to Congress: / 1685323817521139712
Our World in Data - cleanest and safest sources of energy: ourworldindata.org/safest-sou...
How Regulation killed Supersonic: www.heritage.org/transportati...
Natural gas is stronger in the U.S.: www.iea.org/commentaries/natu...
Baseload in the U.S. has been flat for many years: energytransition.nema.org/bas...
Amazon goes nuclear: www.theregister.com/2024/03/0...
I-95 Bridge reopened in 12 days: www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
SF cleaned up in a week: www.smh.com.au/world/north-am...
Texas trumps California as key US energy transition driver:www.reuters.com/markets/commo...
Brad’s tweet on CT scan: altcap/status/177...
Americans favor more nuclear energy: www.pewresearch.org/short-rea...
Producing new nuclear plants have gone down in France and up in the U.S. tweet: cremieuxrecueil/s...
GenAI company revenue multiples tweet: asanwal/status/17...
Gurley’s tweet on 60x reduction from top model: bgurley/status/17...
Congress provides record funding for fusion energy:www.fusionindustryassociation...
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod - Наука та технологія
![Businesses that Always Fail? 7 Businesses with Shockingly High Failure Rates [Backed by Data]](/img/n.gif)
Best business conversation on the internet. Thanks gents.
Thank god for Gurley always being a cool head amongst these hype cycles. Class investor.
those red glasses are absurd
🤣🤣🤣
Great convo (BG)^2. Would highly recommend any recent talk by Yann LeCun for a bit better insight on the bottlenecks of the current tech, and what’s needed.
Gurley’s sober take is appropriate.
Walk around my house like I’m Stan Drunk after listening to these episodes
Such a great podcast!! Love that we can listen to these two
Gerstner: what do you think about this bill?
Bill Gurley: proceeds to answer...
Gerstner: but what i really think is ...
lol let gurley answer!
Another great pod, good discussion on Nuclear energy. Love seeing you guys discussing these topics with no Politics bias one way or the other.
Very practical.
The Bill-n-Brad show is awesome ... great insights.
Great discussion on the valuation front. Real food for thought not just for founders but also startup employees. Helps set expectations.
Another Marvelous watch. Time just flew by. Amazing points with no time wasted on any redundancy. Is this how the smartest people communicate?
Love that painting in the background behind Brad.
By
sheetal mishra
I’ve been waiting for this since last Friday!
Thanks for great podcast guys, Cheers!
Bill gurly is my favorite sports star - business phenomenon 👍if you could get stanley druckenmiller and bill gurley together for a podcast that would be really sweet!
Ejoying every episode so far. Keep rolling BG and BG!
Brad, Thank You for sharing your research with us. If possible, Please do share Altimeter slides analyzing stock prices like you have before. Retail Investors just don’t have access to that type and quality of research !
Nice to have another all in like podcast in the middle of the wk
Need to hear more from Bill.
love this show so much
Best business technology podcast, I could listen to Bill Gurley’s thoughts all day. On the debate over compute required I come out right in the middle of the two of them as someone who is working in this area (extremely large scale DL models, being put into business use). LLMs are overrated, the underlying technology of DL is underrated.
Outstanding episode!
Amazing
Thank you
Very informative
For those interested in learning more about the reg around nuclear, Packy McCormick’s Age of Miracles pod has a good overview (I think it’s Ep 3)
Great show!
This show is so much better than All in Pod. All in has become massy, superficial and so much more political. Thanks BGs for putting this together.
47:20 always hilarious when the balloons go up when someone holds up "two" on their hand. Happened to JCal too haha
An interesting sub-topic for discussion on the LLM/GenAI topic is the implications for an already-stretched electric grid. Anecdotally, a GPT search uses 10x the compute and 10x the electricity of a conventional Google search. Add that to vehicle electrification, HVAC electrification, cryptocurrency mining and overall growth in the Data Center market (conventional in excess of Gen AI).
Whoops, spoke too soon!
Great show..... Great SRV painting!
Sick hat Bill! 🤘🏼
We should be using safe fission reactors. We’ve come a long way since the old designs we can make it far safer reactors now vs past
Great analysis
great pod, Bg2! BTW, it's not a hot water heater, just a water heater. If the water was hot, you wouldn't need to heat it...🤪
We call it a geyser in some parts of the world haha
great insights as always
Love these guys
Good stuff guys.
Ok now I need to pick a nuclear etf. God bless you guys for sharing real, nonemotional, information
$URA
URA
NXE or CCJ, single stock risk worth it in this sector
BTW, if you want an asymmetric trade, the market cap of the entire uranium industry is only ~$50B. Uranium demand is almost completely inelastic, and there is a 25% supply deficit, with inventories rapidly depleting. The largest producer is missing production badly, demand is skyrocketing, and getting new mines online is extremely difficult. Also, Congress might ban Russian enrichment (easily passed the House with bipartisan support), which would probably double the deficit, and there is now a physical uranium fund that bought about 25% of world production for only a couple billion $ in 2021. Uranium spot could easily 10x, and there are junior miners that may 100x at least.
been waiting for this
Great chat thanks
Best pod
Hook ‘em Bill!!!
Welcome to 'This week in AI'
@Brad: who made that painting behind you on the wall? Love it! ❤
One critical difference between compute and other goods and services that have seen a cost reduction (housing, planes and travel, e.g.) is that compute does not require the user to be *actively engaged in its consumption* -
we can fly so many times in a day, we can make (efficient) use of only so many homes, consume only so much water
If Sam is right - hyperbolic or not - there may be no bound to how much compute we can consume (at some low price)
Hook ‘em Bill 🤘
Love the Pod, keep it up
I heard a fellow named Jcal who is the world’s best shit talker. Y’all should bring him on to spice things up.
BG2 is great
The US has a state based power utility regulatory framework
we don't make national policy in energy, it would impossible without a transformation of the regulatory i..e Telco act , Banking act etc..
there is ZERO appetite for this type of massive regulation it doesn't matter what the macro super trends are.
What is with the cuts mid sentence? Leave them in!!
Guys you should do a deep dive into long duration energy storage (LDES) a sector that is growing exponentially and how its complementary to solar and winds. This doesn't include lithium but instead alternative ls like iron flow batteries. Microsoft and google are already looking into them to help power data centers.
One point that might be worth mentioning is that the slide on uranium company production doesn’t equal the real total potential supply since uranium mining is banned in most states in Australia. That can change.
The issue is people are not nearly creative enough with the AI use cases. Imagine existing in your favorite fantasy world (Star Wars, Sherlock Holmes) as a character or in a historical period as an influential person, where you can interact in that world with other characters as you can in the real world. There would be insatiable demand for that service alone, and that would require insane amounts of compute - maybe orders of magnitude than we are planning in the next few years.
There are infinite extremely compelling use cases for sufficiently advanced AI. We're just not there yet.
Does anyone know where we can find the quote he mentions from Jensen around 13:00 about how "the production at scale of intelligence matters to every single country and every single industry"
"It's not PROVOCATIVE" 😂😂
Awesome to have more character join the ALL IN shared universe. 😉
when these guys say ZURP or Serp (i don't know this acronym) what are they referring to? thanks
Elton John looks great!
Do you know that PG&E in California, especially San Francisco Bay Area, does everything possible to prevent installation of roof solar panels ? A lot of energy can be produced otherwise.
A wise man once said, "start with the user not the technology" (RIP Steve)
SF was cleaned for Xi after just 1 night, not 1 week. Clean here means:
- relocated all people living on the pavement
- clean up the pavement (poop and other dirt)
- put plant on the pavement every 2 meters
- install wire mesh along the traveling path of Xi
Is it: The LLMs don't have the memory capacity to remember embeddings for every single word in a large document. Remember from Part 5 that the embedding of each word consists of 1,536 numbers.
Let gurley talk more!
I'm looking at a tweet that says California has spent $9.8 Billion on a high speed rail link between LA and San Francisco and has laid 0 miles of track. This after hearing estimates on replacing the Baltimore bridge... Can the US even tackle large projects anymore or is the country just frozen with political gridlock, corruption, monopoly, lobbying, regulations, courts and activism? All at a time when US debt is going exponential and America can no longer print money without being rewarded with more inflation. (Ok now Bill is talking about it later in the pod.)
If we’re so convinced electricity demand and production skyrockets, it’s curious that the electricity indexes don’t reflect any of that growth
catch up to all-in 🎉
Could someone explain the memory issue Bill is referring to?
All In podcast without the political discussions that wastes of most of our time. Good job BG2 for finding a niche in a very crowded space.
Great talk, but you know I am tryna figure out the Chair Bill got that make that chair look so big
My aunt has the same glasses as BG
Maryland not Delaware Bill! @43:00
Where do bill and brad stand on Palantir
Any idea what type of headphones brad is wearing?
Interesting conversation about power generation, has anyone looked the cost reduction and efficiency in going to 240v. 110v centre tapped, Doubles the size in copper and limits your output.
That's an interesting idea for the data centers.
@@joythought 240v 50hz is a significant improvement on material costs at these type of generation needs for AI alone. Obviously you can’t do it across the entire country for obvious reasons but for new generation I would certainly recommend it.
what earphones are you guys wearing?
How long do you last if you take a shot everytime Brad takes off his glasses and puts them back on
George Gilder thinks Graphene will solve some of the energy issues. Thoughts?
But inference hardware goes to the edge, even though today its mostly in the data centre - learning is in the data centers and inference will be in Apple phones, Humanoid Robots, Tesla cars, AI PCs, RabbitAIs, Amazon Echo(updated) etc all on the edge. True, learning has the massive power consumption needs but don't lump that with inference where the power requirements are distributed.
Great discussion, thank you both! I agree with most of your takes but one. You're placing too much value on the individual LLM companies and think they can just build their own data store to increase switching costs. Instead, I think primary value will go to the Data and AI tools and orchestration layer that sits in between the hyper scalers and the model companies. Their AIP platform also seamlessly and dynamically supports a K-LLM approach which allows the user to pick the most optimized model for their use case. This is why PLTR is my number one holding. I am also professionally in this space and use their platform at my company.
and LLMs often have a limited ability to retain information over short periods of time. This means that they may forget important details or context from recent interactions, leading to inconsistencies or errors in their response.
Is that an original Rousseau behind Brad?
At least these guys aren’t talking their own book all the time, unlike that “other” podcast.
Which one?
We also should not equate compute as a 1:1 representation of intelligence. As the supply and demand curve for compute is different than the supply and demand curve for intelligence. It’s related but are not equal.
Hook’Em Horns
And if we ignore Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear reactor disasters. Nuclear fusion is safer than fission and it’s worth figuring out that technology for the long run.
Why ignore them, were they outta regs?
Please look at the actual number of people who died from radiation in the Japanese disaster. Zero. And how many in the terribly mismanaged Chenobyl disaster actually died from radiation (not fire or evacuation mishaps or other ways people died that anti-nucleur activists have lumped into the figures). Dig enough and you will find it is well under 50 for the worst nuclear disaster ever. Now find out how many people have died falling of wind turbines and roofs as they installed solar.... Fission is not the bogeyman people have conned you into believing all this time.
Whenever I listen to this pod I remember the Buffet saying that he would much prefer to work with someone with an IQ of 130 that thinks its 120 than work with someone with an IQ of 150 that think its 160.
Why?? You mean Bill Gurley?
@@abnersanchez3463 No, I actually meant Brad. Bill actually seems to be more down to earth and a bit more aware of the limits of his knowledge.
Brad, too much show, too little substance, way overconfident on his opinions(while "faking" modesty...)
@@mooie3well both of these guys are a league above everyone on the All In podcast on that measure.
how can you guys talk about compute build out + energy consumption without talking about current advancements in chip technology that have potentially 100x or 1000x impact on energy efficiency and performance of running these llms? kneron, qualcomm, intel, nvidia all making big bets on next gen chips - i'd like to see a pod about that as well as discussion on LLM model size and the developments there - maybe bring a technical expert on for that discussion.
Great show guys. Brad lower your mic.
far better than all in podcast
Didn’t know it was a competition. I love both shows
It’s not even close, but they are both still worth watching.
this week yes, last week no. Subjects dependant and not a competition anyway
@@Michael-bi2wv no one said it was 🙄 you can like one more without it being a competition
It’s a zero sum game for our attention. And I agree this is head and shoulders better than the other one.
LLM industry may go the way of the Streaming industry, too many entrants asking for their own monthly payment and consumers are going to just pick one and dump the rest.
Thank god he took off those ridiculous glasses. Ahhh 💩 he put them back on 😂 Ps Bill please sit still.
Yall own palantir?
24:40 A hot water heater…. really. The correct term is “Water Heater”.
Great podcast. Makes All-In seem like a joke.
great pod, Brad please do not wear those glasses again, gives me Jamie Lee Curtis vibes
How do we deregulate?!?!?
First
Nuclear is safest and cleanest power IFF designs are standardized and licensed like commercial aircraft. Allows production scaling and feedback learning for robustness. But it won't happen, in time -- our govm't is broken. Solar, wind, and batteries are today... compute demand is today... build baby, build -- SWB.
What headphones are those? 😂
The guy with glasses looks bald in this episode lol I was so confused like why would he cut it so smooth