Great analysis! Blue terror can beat gardens since most cards are effective and faster, what does not happen for dimir or izzet terror. Playing boomerang on tapped rot farm is probably game in the spot every time.
@ezelake88 Thanks! Both decks aren't ones I've played often (if at all) so didn't want to try and make up an explanation when I had no basis for my claims. What you said makes sense. Gardens do be clunky.
Thank you for all the effort you are putting into these videos! I have to admit that Dimir Fae dying is affecting me more than I thought, it was always my favourite deck but I couldnt play during this phase where it was favoured by the meta because I was busy. Im really biting myself in the ass for missing that opportunity. Oh well, ill keep playing it in my LGS and go 0 in 5 haha
@kathipaw As Zerito said above it is decent to okay against mono U Terror and Kuldotha. It is also okayish into Broodscale. As I said during the flowchart all you need is to have at least 2 favourable matchups to stand a chance. I only said it was dead for dramatic effect, it can still see it popping up like elves and jeskai just not in the numbers it once did.
I love these videos, ty for all the work it takes to put this together! We've been trying to track similarly at my LGS though it's difficult to maintain. I haven't played a ton since MH3 because I haven't been feeling the vibes... each time I've played, we play 4 rounds and at least half are vs combo decks of some sort. And.... I don't love that vibe. I don't play meta decks, so I have been playing my tortured existence brew, which is jund, and plays pretty well vs affinity and decks like blue terror. I get stomped with that deck by gruul ramp since I haven't figured out a good way to stop the early game plays since the deck is a little slow. Very few mono red players at my store but white ween is also a poor matchup. Broodscale was not great, not bad either. And the other deck I've been playing is gruul slime against humanity. broodscale feels bad because I win if I'm on the play, pretty much, and if I'm on the draw I almost always drop the game. But again, the terror matchup is really good. but, playing 3/4 broodscale matchups makes me feel kind of sad.
There have been others saying the same thing, that they aren't enjoying the current meta, so at least you aren't alone. It has shifted a lot of fan favourite decks out of the format (Walls, Familiars, Goblin Combo) just due to decks going harder and faster now. While the format is 'diverse', it isn't very 'open'. You either need a fast clock or a lot of interaction to have a chance and things like Tortured Existence just get lost in the noise when trying to compete with the top decks. I hope you do find a lane that makes you enjoy the format more otherwise just take a break until Broodscale eases off, it seems to be the real problem for most people.
@Kirblinxy honestly the slimes deck is doing pretty well. I just prefer to vary what I play so only having one deck that can reasonably compete is adding to not wanting to play all the time. But yeah, ultra aggro, fast combo, or enough control to hang on long enough vs those decks is what's up right now
Elves is nice right now, with the right sideboard (and 4 maindeck vandals + ents) it can actually upset affinity. Exiling a land t2 on the play is super strong. Also, Hydra made the deck that much more resilient to non-Shaman removal
we have a monthly pauper tournament on the first Saturday of every month. The clear winner in most of these tournaments is mono black drain, it just recks everything. it has a hard time with repeated lifegain, but everything else, they just drain you to death and kill your creatures. in our format we also have blue terror, Proliferate control (sultai). I myself have played the classic Simic infect, Rackdos Goblin's first day of class combo and madness burn. I've been studying these broodscale decks for a few days and they seem interesting. the winners of these tournaments have been, as I said: Mono Black drain, twice, the last one was white wheenie, I think ´the first and second one were both esper affinity, but that was before the ban of "all that glitters", that banning pretty much destroyed that deck. Maybe playing something simple like mono red kuldotha or mono green elves works, even vs mono black drain if you are fast enough.
I really liked the video, it's interesting to see the statistics, but I would also like to see the winrates of white Winnie Thank you for doing all this for the community, I know it's not easy and it takes a lot of your time
Cool video. Also I go to big pauper tournament soon, but there will be wild meta i know. What deck you think would be better vs all possible decks in general? I have caw-gates, bg gardens, winnie, jeskai ephemerate and dredge. With all decks have exp
@dizzie8685 The easiest answer is whatever deck you feel most comfortable with. The answer for me would be White Weenie as that is just the deck I have the most reps out of those and Affinity/Red are the two most common decks still. Linear gameplans that don't care what the opponent is doing are also good in open metas because you just do your thing. Control decks you usually have to build to try and stop the decks you are expecting so Dredge may be the way to go. Really anything can win on its day.
BTW, I couldn't be happier with the meta (barring crazy unbannings). This is the first time in forever that the field is *not* 3-5 different blue decks.
Slightly confused about the match up between Gruul Eldrazi & Gruul Land Destruction, the spreadsheet says only 6 games were played but there were 22 mirror match ups for eldrazi & 27 for Land Destruction. Is this just due them not having a lot of overlap?
@LordDenominated This is a quirk of the long period I took this data over. The first 5 weeks MH3 were a Ponza-fest and that was the only deck played. Then, it shifted to the Stompy deck and hard. So there wasn't much overlap when the 2 decks were played in the same tournament until somewhat recently when LD has come back a little bit. Assumption would be LD beats Stompy since it just blows up the aura'd lands, then should be able to overwhelm with mana advantage.
I’m curious about one thing in particular when I see this video. Affinity is close to 50/50, but is that because everyone wants to play it, including poor players? I wonder if all players were of equal skill level what these numbers would look like.
Hello, what deck would you use to have good matchups against "Kuldotha Red, Jund Gardens, B/W, Affinity, Gruul monsters? TYVM Im thinking Poison storm but not sure if there's other deck that has good matchup against these decks I have mentioned. Thanks
@mistahj6724 Honestly the first thing that comes to mind is Turbofog. Gardens can't win, BW is very favourable, Kuldotha and Gruul are good, just have to draw well and Affinity is 50/50. Turbofog isn't for everyone but if there isn't any combo or Blue decks then it is easily the best thing to run.
TYVM for sharing your thoughts! very very helpful for me! Ok, i guess imma start buying those tangles now lol.. Is the B/G version or U/G better for turbo fog?
@mistahj6724 BG is better against affinity and Red, so I'd go with that. Poison Storm is fine, I haven't played it too much but I feel like it isn't that great against gruul or red. I feel they can run you over before you get your engine going.
This is a good question and I didn't have answer when I first saw it. I'm thinking at least 20 matches is a good number. I don't know what percentage of games are determined by luck but sometimes it can feel 4/10 matches you had to Mulligan to 5 or something.
@Icecreaam97 I have a real old video on this channel that shows this. To access replays for a challenge you have to participated in it. At the end of the event you can watch every game that was played. It's a pretty cool feature of mtgo.
I played a lot mono U terror and I can't understand how the winrate vs jund broodscale is in favor of terror... I find it one of the worst match up... any help? am I that bad?
I don't play a lot of either deck so I can't really comment. The stats don't show it that much in favour of terror. I would call it more 50/50. My assumption it is similar to the Gardens matchup that another commenter mentioned. Boomerang does a lot of work against Tapland decks so you just need to tempo them so they don't resolve a Chrysalis I guess?
Now that affinity is running Toxic Analysis, the big 5 feels more like the BIG 1 vs the others It is still kinda frustrating needing 6~8 artifact removal + grave hate to stand a chance
@pedrohdalla Toxin Analysis only really helps the Gruul matchup and plus they only run 1 or 2 so sometimes don't even see them when it matters. Every deck having at least 6 slots for affinity hate is telling that everyone knows it is the deck to beat.
@pauperdad7040 BW Blade had some issues before but yes, it does not have a great matchup into either of those decks. It is decent into mono U and okayish into Affinity and Red. It doesn't hit my criteria of definitely beating 2 of the 5 for it to be in Tier 2 consideration. Could still 4-2 and hit a top 8 if you have a good day. Deck does have more clunky hands than most others sadly.
Hi there! Really appreciate your work. I work for the LPI and the Paupergeddons, I'm trying to contact you to propose you something, but I can't find an email address or any way to contact you though.
Hey, I just updated my channel description to have my email in it. Most people usually contact me by Discord or Twitter. Looking forward to seeing what you are proposing!
Thanks for doing this dude!
@kalikaiz No probs boss 🫡
Thank you so much Kirby, the best pauper meta analysis out there!
Excellent video! You're a true pauper hero doing all of this work
This is the best video series in all of pauper content on UA-cam! Amazing stuff!
Great analysis! Blue terror can beat gardens since most cards are effective and faster, what does not happen for dimir or izzet terror. Playing boomerang on tapped rot farm is probably game in the spot every time.
@ezelake88 Thanks! Both decks aren't ones I've played often (if at all) so didn't want to try and make up an explanation when I had no basis for my claims. What you said makes sense. Gardens do be clunky.
This is exactly the information I was looking for. Thanks!
These are the best meta analysis videos out there. Hands down. Thank you for doing this!
Dude, this video is so goddamn good, thank you so much for putting in all that work!
Really appreciate your effort with this analysis!
Great analysis vid.
Man, this is another banger. These videos are really good.
Highly awaited!
Excellent content, really helpful!
Amazing work, thank you for putting this together! ❤
Amazing, amazing work!
Amazing content! Thanks for the work you put up
Such good work. Thank you.
Thank you very much for the amount of work you have done
Thank you for all the effort you are putting into these videos!
I have to admit that Dimir Fae dying is affecting me more than I thought, it was always my favourite deck but I couldnt play during this phase where it was favoured by the meta because I was busy.
Im really biting myself in the ass for missing that opportunity. Oh well, ill keep playing it in my LGS and go 0 in 5 haha
I play Mono U Fae at my local and get 2nd or 1st every week I bring it lol
@@xboxgamer474246 how do you deal with brooscale decks? The reach creatures are a huge issue to me
It still has game into mono blue / kuldotha, fun deck for sure!
@kathipaw As Zerito said above it is decent to okay against mono U Terror and Kuldotha. It is also okayish into Broodscale. As I said during the flowchart all you need is to have at least 2 favourable matchups to stand a chance. I only said it was dead for dramatic effect, it can still see it popping up like elves and jeskai just not in the numbers it once did.
I love these videos, ty for all the work it takes to put this together! We've been trying to track similarly at my LGS though it's difficult to maintain. I haven't played a ton since MH3 because I haven't been feeling the vibes... each time I've played, we play 4 rounds and at least half are vs combo decks of some sort. And.... I don't love that vibe. I don't play meta decks, so I have been playing my tortured existence brew, which is jund, and plays pretty well vs affinity and decks like blue terror. I get stomped with that deck by gruul ramp since I haven't figured out a good way to stop the early game plays since the deck is a little slow. Very few mono red players at my store but white ween is also a poor matchup. Broodscale was not great, not bad either. And the other deck I've been playing is gruul slime against humanity. broodscale feels bad because I win if I'm on the play, pretty much, and if I'm on the draw I almost always drop the game. But again, the terror matchup is really good. but, playing 3/4 broodscale matchups makes me feel kind of sad.
There have been others saying the same thing, that they aren't enjoying the current meta, so at least you aren't alone. It has shifted a lot of fan favourite decks out of the format (Walls, Familiars, Goblin Combo) just due to decks going harder and faster now. While the format is 'diverse', it isn't very 'open'. You either need a fast clock or a lot of interaction to have a chance and things like Tortured Existence just get lost in the noise when trying to compete with the top decks. I hope you do find a lane that makes you enjoy the format more otherwise just take a break until Broodscale eases off, it seems to be the real problem for most people.
@Kirblinxy honestly the slimes deck is doing pretty well. I just prefer to vary what I play so only having one deck that can reasonably compete is adding to not wanting to play all the time. But yeah, ultra aggro, fast combo, or enough control to hang on long enough vs those decks is what's up right now
great work!!!
AMAZING WORK
Amazing content for Pauper grinders
thanks a lot for sharing the resources as well!! much appreciated
No prob. Hopefully they are of use to people.
Very interesting analysis.
Very good presentation
Elves is nice right now, with the right sideboard (and 4 maindeck vandals + ents) it can actually upset affinity. Exiling a land t2 on the play is super strong. Also, Hydra made the deck that much more resilient to non-Shaman removal
I'm still a little sceptical of the 4xMasked Vandal lists. I'd prefer just more mana dorks but I can't really argue when it keeps putting up results.
we have a monthly pauper tournament on the first Saturday of every month.
The clear winner in most of these tournaments is mono black drain, it just recks everything. it has a hard time with repeated lifegain, but everything else, they just drain you to death and kill your creatures. in our format we also have blue terror, Proliferate control (sultai). I myself have played the classic Simic infect, Rackdos Goblin's first day of class combo and madness burn. I've been studying these broodscale decks for a few days and they seem interesting. the winners of these tournaments have been, as I said: Mono Black drain, twice, the last one was white wheenie, I think ´the first and second one were both esper affinity, but that was before the ban of "all that glitters", that banning pretty much destroyed that deck.
Maybe playing something simple like mono red kuldotha or mono green elves works, even vs mono black drain if you are fast enough.
Thanks for the wrap up. If you need data for Sunday don't just drop. I'll play and analyze the video's just need help with the entry. xD
I really liked the video, it's interesting to see the statistics, but I would also like to see the winrates of white Winnie
Thank you for doing all this for the community, I know it's not easy and it takes a lot of your time
Here you go: ibb.co/pZKrZvL
I hope there aren't elves or walls players in your meta.
@@Kirblinxy you are the best
Cool video. Also I go to big pauper tournament soon, but there will be wild meta i know. What deck you think would be better vs all possible decks in general? I have caw-gates, bg gardens, winnie, jeskai ephemerate and dredge. With all decks have exp
@dizzie8685 The easiest answer is whatever deck you feel most comfortable with. The answer for me would be White Weenie as that is just the deck I have the most reps out of those and Affinity/Red are the two most common decks still. Linear gameplans that don't care what the opponent is doing are also good in open metas because you just do your thing. Control decks you usually have to build to try and stop the decks you are expecting so Dredge may be the way to go. Really anything can win on its day.
@@Kirblinxy thanks for very detailed answer!
BTW, I couldn't be happier with the meta (barring crazy unbannings). This is the first time in forever that the field is *not* 3-5 different blue decks.
Slightly confused about the match up between Gruul Eldrazi & Gruul Land Destruction, the spreadsheet says only 6 games were played but there were 22 mirror match ups for eldrazi & 27 for Land Destruction. Is this just due them not having a lot of overlap?
@LordDenominated This is a quirk of the long period I took this data over. The first 5 weeks MH3 were a Ponza-fest and that was the only deck played. Then, it shifted to the Stompy deck and hard. So there wasn't much overlap when the 2 decks were played in the same tournament until somewhat recently when LD has come back a little bit. Assumption would be LD beats Stompy since it just blows up the aura'd lands, then should be able to overwhelm with mana advantage.
I’m curious about one thing in particular when I see this video. Affinity is close to 50/50, but is that because everyone wants to play it, including poor players?
I wonder if all players were of equal skill level what these numbers would look like.
i think the only control that might rise up is the Dimir one with ritual that can slam murmuring or monarch turn 2
Hello,
what deck would you use to have good matchups against "Kuldotha Red, Jund Gardens, B/W, Affinity, Gruul monsters? TYVM Im thinking Poison storm but not sure if there's other deck that has good matchup against these decks I have mentioned. Thanks
@mistahj6724 Honestly the first thing that comes to mind is Turbofog. Gardens can't win, BW is very favourable, Kuldotha and Gruul are good, just have to draw well and Affinity is 50/50. Turbofog isn't for everyone but if there isn't any combo or Blue decks then it is easily the best thing to run.
TYVM for sharing your thoughts! very very helpful for me! Ok, i guess imma start buying those tangles now lol.. Is the B/G version or U/G better for turbo fog?
@mistahj6724 BG is better against affinity and Red, so I'd go with that. Poison Storm is fine, I haven't played it too much but I feel like it isn't that great against gruul or red. I feel they can run you over before you get your engine going.
How many matches between two decks are needed to have statistically significant MU%?
This is a good question and I didn't have answer when I first saw it. I'm thinking at least 20 matches is a good number. I don't know what percentage of games are determined by luck but sometimes it can feel 4/10 matches you had to Mulligan to 5 or something.
How do you access the replays for the challenges?
@Icecreaam97 I have a real old video on this channel that shows this. To access replays for a challenge you have to participated in it. At the end of the event you can watch every game that was played. It's a pretty cool feature of mtgo.
I played a lot mono U terror and I can't understand how the winrate vs jund broodscale is in favor of terror... I find it one of the worst match up... any help? am I that bad?
I don't play a lot of either deck so I can't really comment. The stats don't show it that much in favour of terror. I would call it more 50/50. My assumption it is similar to the Gardens matchup that another commenter mentioned. Boomerang does a lot of work against Tapland decks so you just need to tempo them so they don't resolve a Chrysalis I guess?
Now that affinity is running Toxic Analysis, the big 5 feels more like the BIG 1 vs the others
It is still kinda frustrating needing 6~8 artifact removal + grave hate to stand a chance
@pedrohdalla Toxin Analysis only really helps the Gruul matchup and plus they only run 1 or 2 so sometimes don't even see them when it matters. Every deck having at least 6 slots for affinity hate is telling that everyone knows it is the deck to beat.
RIp empherate
To think everyone was thinking it would be the first White card banned. Rip indeed 😔
Broodscale and chrysalis made bw blade a joke deck, right?
@pauperdad7040 BW Blade had some issues before but yes, it does not have a great matchup into either of those decks. It is decent into mono U and okayish into Affinity and Red. It doesn't hit my criteria of definitely beating 2 of the 5 for it to be in Tier 2 consideration. Could still 4-2 and hit a top 8 if you have a good day. Deck does have more clunky hands than most others sadly.
@@Kirblinxy thought so. It doesnt need to be bw blade, but is some kind of bw midrange viable? I can't imagine not playing skyfisher
Boros and synthesizer decks fell down the meta these days?
Completely, its been substituted by glintblade variants and mono white
this meta kinda shit, affinity keeps ruining all the fun lmao
Hi there! Really appreciate your work. I work for the LPI and the Paupergeddons, I'm trying to contact you to propose you something, but I can't find an email address or any way to contact you though.
Hey, I just updated my channel description to have my email in it. Most people usually contact me by Discord or Twitter. Looking forward to seeing what you are proposing!