Would Iran be able to finance a prolonged military conflict with Israel? | DW News
Вставка
- Опубліковано 15 кві 2024
- Iran's attack on Israel has raised questions over its military capabilities and its potential readiness for an escalated conflict in the region. The country - which has been under international sanctions for years - has been suffering from high inflation and low growth.
But over the past few months, it's also been showing increasing readiness to flex its military muscles, carrying out attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and reinforcing its support for a range of militant groups including Hamas and Hezbollah.
DW Business speaks with Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, Professor of Economics at Virginia Tech and co-author of the book ‘How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare.’
Subscribe: ua-cam.com/users/deutsche...
For more news go to: www.dw.com/en/
Follow DW on social media:
►Facebook: / deutschewellenews
►Twitter: / dwnews
►Instagram: / dwnews
►Twitch: / dwnews_hangout
Für Videos in deutscher Sprache besuchen Sie: / dwdeutsch
#iran #israel #economy
Is this the same guy who said Russia don't have ballistic missile in 2002?
Sources
lel yes its him and he sayin at start the iranian attack was moderate they lit light up the middle east skys with fire :D
We were not there but here
2022 and Russia was running low on missiles and artillery shells. Russia since has received some 3 million shells and unknown amount of missiles from North Korea, at least 200 ballistic missiles from Iran. And maximised its own production
Yes, that's him .... he also said that Russians Economie wouldn't sustain a war in the long run ... Right now, he's saying the same rubbish as usual. Iran is just fine.
Are these the same ones that said Russian economy will collapse within months?
so where they get their funds? in ther A hole? 😂😂😂😂
What happened to Russia bringing the dollar down,or the mission has been abandoned?
Yes
I ran, doesn’t have the same economy as Russia. The Russians
Remember when BRICS overthrew the US dollar? Me either still waiting for that like you all said was going to happen. 🤣
Only psychopaths talk about war with a smile.
😂😂😂😂GREAT BRO😂😂😂😂😂.. I Laughed TO DEATH... thank you from INDIA
The host is specially disturbing.
She's wonderful 👏👏
Bb is one of them
Theyre just far removed from it mentally. Its all academic to them as they have no relevant experience to empathize with. Its fairly common among the unblooded.
Excuse me, did he say Iran’s GDP is growing by 5% annually ? That’s massive . Despite all the sanctions and western interference .
he said Iran's economy is back 20 years. It is still better than the US. US economy is like back 100 years. there are tents on all over the countries only happened since the Depression. damm
@AnhNguyen-hn9vj the majority of the tents are not citizens
@@aaronplackett2094 WRONG
It's also about the size of Missouri. lol
He lied!! Iran economy is in the toilet. It shrank by 60% in the past decade
How did Taliban manage to maintain war with US for 20 years? Underestimating your opponent is the best way to find yourself in a difficult situation.
😂😂😂 lol now what about Afganistan
Iran will become Afganistan lol😂😂😂😂😂😂
And how peshmerga kurdish able to keep their present until now in iranian teritory.
Ask Pakistan, who now wants help against the Taliban.
Bad comparison. Iran has a conventional army while the Afghans have an asymmetrical 'army' (i.e. gorilla style warfare). Afghans also had massive stockpiles of weapons that the Soviets left there after the Soviet-Afghan war. They also received weapon stockpiles from the CIA during that time as well.
The media is being nonsense nowadays.. (UPDATE: the interviewer reminds me of the Red Alert 2 Allies assistant "Athena Massey" 🤣🤣🤣)
Still learning English?
@@ems4884he definitely knows english. Do you know how to comprehend?
On the subject of the middle east and the west's policies within it, they've always been nonsense.
I must say that he is a very knowledgeable guy. Very rarely have I seen an "expert" that really knows about what he is talking about specially when it comes to matters regarding the middle east.
Would the West and Europe, specially Germany survive Iran’s potential closing of the 2 oil straits.
If necessary, the U.S. and the West would fight to keep the SOH and Red Sea open.
Iran lost 3 ships and 2 oil rigs last time they tried it.. when they put mines in the water to block the route..
@@deloughi1887are you seriously comparing Iran back then to now 😂
@@badomen9057 He is funny, Iran is now a bigger state now, even having the largest millitary in the middle east, building their own weapons, has largest Uranium reserves (60%)
@@dr_successlol well that’s bs….
Iran isn’t even in the top ten of uranium reserves/deposits lol….
The west did all these speculations on Russia too.
Decades back, they did the same for Vietnam too.
War is about determination and the will of the people. Assad was expected to vanish in months also
Well, it depends on the tactics you use.
You are wrong
USA WARNED EVERYONE ABOUT RUSSIA
people just refused to listen
Except in this case the invader is Russia, not USA. USA invaded Iraq, Vietnam; now Russia has invaded Ukraine. I think a better analogy would be to compare USA and Russia in this case.
@@user-wl7zi6pc3j Wrong. US invaded Ukraine ideologically and Russia is defending it's cultural sphere.
@@MemovoxVery funny. Thanks for the laugh.
How will the closing of the straits of Hormuz affect the EU economies?
probably the same way everyone else would be affected by higher oil prices?
I appreciate how DW anchors don't interrupt or cut off the interviewees.
I enjoyed the interview. She asked good questions.
No sane peoples economy is ready for war but once inflicted has to be carried out tooth and nail.
Military Analysts have estimated that Iran's attack in total cost in the region of 10 to 20 million dollars whereas the Israeli defence of this same attack cost around 1.3 billion dollars. You do the math and see who will last longer before going bankrupt.
Iran would, compare the economies. 10-20 million sounds way off for sending ballistic and cruise missiles. But taken your word for it, yes the US could trade this equation all day. Let alone, UK, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israeli governments were all involved so putting the bill at one country is misleading.
yes but how long would iran continue to send rockets if Jericho comes knocking on the door?
The real question is what will take iran to defend such an attack from Israel? can they defend anything at all?
Don’t count on it. Countries all around the world are calling Israel right now to buy their defense systems so all in all they’ll be earning much more than they spent.
,,,,,,, does the west ever learn from it's strategic blunder?
Excellent interview! The key: further altercation of sort would be a failure, IF the aim is a more moderate Iran.
Any sufficiently advanced industrial economy can become a monster under the threat of total war. Do not underestimate Iran.
Do not 0verestimate Iran.
you mean the same jokers who couldnt deal with iraq for 8 years
@@eduwino151Israel couldn't even deal with a flip-flops wearing militia for the past 6 months...where's the eradication and the rescue hostages by IDF?
@@261mokiand Israel couldn't deal with a flip-flops wearing militia for the past six months. What happened the eradication and rescue hostages by the IDF?
Iran and industrialized? Exporting dry fruits, second hand drones,and oil doesn't comes under advanced Industrialized 😹😹😂😂😂😂😂😂
The question is o
If the whole world is ready for war? Be scared of those who has nothing to lose
A good interviewer asks questions not plant them so clumsily
Iran survived multiple sanctions. That should explain a lot....
so they are an economic power?
No, they are extremely weak.
So will they survive in a full blown war? Lmao they're not russia bruh dont be delusional
@@emmanueledano5194 Russia will not watch if Iran is attacked.
Very good analysis. An informative breakdown of Iran
Biden said DONT, Iran did 😂😂😂
whats next for biden to say 😂😂😂😂
Put a flake in my ice cream and take me back to the beach
I am out of office? Lol
He said ‘don’t’ and not one Iranian missile landed.
@@LeMerchwow even Israel admitted some of the missile landed.
maybe he meant to say homer's D'OH
Did somebody tell us that russian economy wouldn t be abel to suport war in Ukraine 😮
And they are still right
On the contrary they told us that Russia’s economy will make Russia fall apart and the Russian will throw Putin out of office after 2 weeks of war.
@@noahlupu5719 really? Last I checked Russian economy is doing better than most European including Germany
Well Russia is a much bigger country than Iran, and the us is much better equipped than Ukraine. If they were to demolish the a few oil rigs Iranian economy would suffer heavily. But here it looks like nobody wants war.
They spent 1/3 of there Budget on the army. A lot of trade partners are gone. In the long run they lost the war. Strategically speaking.
Since they supply their minions, now they will need their own supplies. And we will see how well they do by themself.
No
It was said the same for Russia.
Considering one night of defending against Iran cost Israel 5% of its total annual military budget, that question should be asked of Israel, as well. Of course Israel has the US to do all its heavy lifting, but I think people forget Iran also has Russia and China. I'm not a fan of either belligerent, but if something pops off, it'll be Israel's doing.
Where do you trolls come with this numbers ? You an accountant at the israelis military budget :))
@@pesteanvstefan5491 Israeli sources state they spent $1.35bn in its defense that night alone. Israel says its annual military budget is roughly $23bn. If you don't like it, send your complaint to Israel.
Iran doesnt have Russian or chinese aid at all in the same way Israel gets US aid - neither country donates money to Iran, and neither particulrarly cares about it.
Also, Iran launched over 100 of its ballistic missiles in that night - it has "3000+" but many dont have the range to hit Israel. So Iran easily burned more than 5% of its ballistic missile stocks (than can reach Israel).
In other words, theres alot of uncertantity over whos resources would run out first, but with US backing, its probably Iran.
This is not Iran’s first rodeo, They be fine
What? When’s the last time Iran attacked a western backed nation..
lol well it is the first one where the bull tried to gore the humans with way more advanced weapons than an old pair of horns, so....
@@LeMerch Iraq
Ancient air force ancient navy it's an L for fart-ran 😂
@@MrTmenzo Modern nukes and missles.
It is clear that Iran does not want a war with anyone, but it would defend its honour at any cost because the Iranians value their honour. This is the reason why they had an empire. They are a proud people just like the Romans (now called the West). So, Iran's neighbours should do well not to get into a tit-for-tat war game with them :)
حسن جان گوتو زخور
As long as you want oil, they will
They have oil Israel does not, Iran can fight a prolonged war. But the distance means it will never be a land battle. Just air power which is probably will all be about.
Do you want to have a look at inflation in uk , I work full time job and OT still can’t cope with ever increasing inflation
Stop filtering comments or simply shut off comments button...
Yes they are
she asks a question about reaction at home to present events and he fails to answer. She does not pursue the question. Not ideal interviewing technic
There is financial issue in all wars, don’t worry , they will survive
You bring this guy he only says I think
Their smiles make me think they like each other 😅
I would say its the opposite
Actually !
Iran , and Persia as have been known in the Middle East for millennia , has always been super rich , and is still very rich .
i just came here to reiterate how we are closer and closer to our own demise with every subsequent bomb we drop. All the money spent on death could otherwise be used for so much good, and yet history keeps repeating itself; as if we're expecting a different result. And...funny enough...about 99.995% of the world's population is on the same page. We're all good. We all just want to enjoy our lives and do some good before we become dust in the wind. The very minute slice of individuals who want blood should have it amongst themselves and leave the rest of us to repair this planet.
yeah i know. sue me.
Iran is about to "find out".
I wonder whether the abode of the Supreme Leader features upon the roster of considerations for IDF.
Dear friend, I am writing to ask for your help in finding a more balanced source of news about Israel. I believe that with your insights and suggestions, I can access unbiased reporting on DW news. I am grateful for your time and attention to my request and look forward to hearing from you. Thank you!
They never talk about the high inflation, deindustrialization, and even though there's growth in places like the United States, the cost of living means there's actual little wealth being generated for the majority of its citizens. US, UK, and Germany are all declining. No one can finance a prolonged military conflict without destroying their domestic population.
Why ask ?
Another and possibly more important question is how ready is the American economy for a major war with Russia, China or even Iran. There was a lot of talking heads that said the Ukraine conflict would brake Russia. How is that going so far?????
The US is not in a position to go to war we are also suffering from inflation
It wouldn’t be a long conflict
Germany is morally on the wrong side of history here, and asks the wrong questions.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
There are way to many factors that can't be known at this point
The Israeli military is far better trained and equipped than the Iranian military
What protects Iran is the distance and that the most direct route to Iran would require going over Arab states
Neither country really has the ability to project force at a distance
Now, Saudi Arabia has been improving relations with both Israel and Iran of late
So a war between Israel and Iran would depend heavily on what the Saudi's want to do
If the Saudi's let the Israeli's land in their airfields to refuel Iran would be in major trouble
If they don't then it is basically Iran and Israel lobbing missiles at each other over great distances
Though again Israel has the edge here with their Iron Dome defense and easy access to Western missiles
Which brings us to the point that if any of the Middle Eastern states side with Iran it would most likely result in the Western countries getting directly involved as well
Then Iran and its allies would just get rolled by superior militaries
Iran did the right thing saying that their rather weak missile/drone attack was sufficient to sooth their ire
Now it is up to Israel to take the fig leaf or start a war that they don't need to
otwo point missing. Will Azerbaijan very close to Iran allow IAF to operate from their bases? They were very grateful to the quick supply of very effective arms from Israel and relations very close. Will their main S300 be effective ? They have certainly not been effective over Syria for years. "rather weak" you say! Did you see the size of the ballistic missile shot down over Israel and it was not even fully in tact!
@@gordonspicer so israel park their planes in azerbaijan and iran just watch? they can destroy those f35 easier in that way
@@user-rv9uo2qf1u A potential problem is that Iran may have to split its air defences in more than one direction. A cursory look at the performance of your long term ally and Russian client State Syria over last few years does not bode too well does it. I cannot recall of any IAF place being shot down or even Syrians directly using their air force to retaliate.
Maybe Iran have superior and more experienced air defences?
Doesn't he speak as if his family are hostages in Iran?
Stop Gaza Genocide. Show you values. So Called Democracies are exposed
Depends on how much goodies it supplys to China and North Karea
"Iran is NOT self sufficient in food" 😮
Of course not...
Closing of the the straits could not happen
Iran also has the risk of destructive earthquakes.
Iran just used 1% of its artillery.
After this attack, i discussed it with some people and they are ready to pay one month's salary for iran...
I don't know what they are saying seriously....
Simple answer is no
Is it ready doesn’t matter. Because I don’t think they care if their citizens suffers as a result.
as iranian inside iran i really wish some one help us and change this fking government that cause both inside and outside problems for every one
This lady is a real life OMEGA
🗿
The question should be : How America's and Europe's economy survive if Iran closed all traffic of OIL in the Gulf Region ? How many days can you survive if there is no OIL coming from Middle East ? I'm sure Russia will not help you with what you have done in Ukraine.
how long would the middle east survive without any income? They can't all just sell to china and india...
so many things thems not ready for
You said the same about Russia , and here we go, Russian economy is even stronger after the war 😂
Talk to Russian oil workers being payed in Yuan.
@@buildmotosykletist1987 as long as they can pay with it or exchange with local currency that should be alright , the US dollar should be abandoned by everyone anyway as it has no real value anymore
The answer is no
300+ missiles he calls symbolic.
Iran launched over 100 of those ballistic missiles in one night, and only managed to injure 1 little girl.
Given that a big chunk of Irans ballistic missiles dont even have the range to hit israel, Irans "3000+" missiles suddenly seem a bit less impressive.
Of course it would. It’s getting HUGE money from China and Russia.
China maybe. I doubt Russia has the capital to help now.
,,,,,, China is not helping Iran but buying Iranian goods. Russia doesn't run on credit like the west.
Proof? Iran has sold Russia weapons for use in Ukraine, but thats not a donation.
bigger question is can we in the west, like it or not were low on stuff now after Ukraine
Hey germany.. you said the same about russia. And now you're in recession... soooo funny.
Germanys growth has been flat for a year. Russia had a mass exodus of its educated youth. Long term Germany will be fine. Long term, the land bridge to Crimea wont be worth the loss in innovation.
Germany and the EU are not in a recession. The UK is.
@@LeMerch Germany lost 0.3% gdp last year and is expected to lose in the 1rst quarter of 2024. The russian invader has a point, albeit ridiculously smaller in comparison to the problems in Russia.
Russia and Iran are saying whatever they want about their economy. They lie, as usual...
The question is can Israel sustain spending over a billion dollars every Iranian strike. That was only a small warning strike.
When you are saying Iran’s expenditure on foreign influence “is not huge compared to some other countries”, you should compare everything with those other countries; including their GDP compared to Iran GDP! It is neither acceptable nor scientific to compare just one factor and say Oh! It is not that huge!
The real question is whether Israel has the finances to fight Iran? It cost the Israelis billions to fend off the 300 missiles and drones from Iran. However, 7 still managed to get through to hit Israel's airbase. Iran spent some millions. It was low-budget for Iran. Israel would have to bleed its treasury to fight Iran.
If its full on war Iran ain't going to fire this much missiles and also US amd france will be for israel countries like jordan and lebanon will have more worse financial crises
N on top of that Iran gave them a 72hr warning that they were gonna hit 😂
So according to you iran will be defending all the 300 missiles and drones for a much cheaper price , if Israel attacks? Iran don't even have enough radars. Pakistani airforce bombed their villages as a retaliation for bombing Pakistani villages
Starving
Wouldnt you like to know, weatherboy?
Israel made a huge mistake attacking Iran embassy
no it was a FOB full of military personnel........
😂😂😂
The building was not protected under the terms of the 1961 Vienna Convention since it was used for military purposes.
@@gordonspicer Hogwash, no legal expert agrees with you.
By itself, Iran probably wouldn't be able to sustain a prolonged war of attrition against Izrael. But only because Izrael is not fighting the war on its own. The amount of material aid Izzy needed from the US and its allies were substantial in the Gaza conflict. And that's against a ragtag group of resistance fighters who sometimes McGuyver their own equipment 😆
Against Iran, or a mobilized Hezbollah, they would need even more support.
Yes we are ready, are you ready??? I don't think so ,
Would Iran be able to finance a military escalation ? Good quastion ,Now does Israel have the money without US/EU and UK Tax payer money ???
Ekonomi israel sekarang kritikel. Uk .us .inggeris pun mengalami kritikel ekonomi .kerana banyak membantu ukrin dan israel dalam perperangan. Apa sumber bumi uk .us . Inggeris..selama ini ekonomi us semata mata merompak hasil kekayaan bumi ditimur tengah saja . Perangisrael palastin .israel iran .akan berlanjutan tampa tarikh . Kemunkinan terjadi perang dunia ketiga .
Israel has a huge and hightech economy ($560 billion GDP); Iran's economy is a shrinking and very sick (less than $360 billion GDP). Iran can't even feed its own people.
Israel’s economy is larger than Iran’s and they have 20% the population.
The short answer is yes.
Firstly, the EU abd UK dont finance the Israeli millitary at all, and while the US does, its around 10% of Israeli millitary spending - even without that, Israel has a larger GDP than Iran and is better placed to finance a long war.
In short, no
answer is that it depends on how much the USA gets involved. If the US blocked trade from Iran to China, both Iran and China would come to a standstill.
you mean USa occupy Afghanistan again to block trade between China and iran?
of course not... they have teh GDP of the State of Minnesota
Iran PPP Is 1,7 Trillion
@@OshinAttari Iran's gdp (nominal) is $280 billion, (the real gdp based on the Iran's market $ value).
@@JigilJigil
Iranian GDP is 386
Russia will supply them food. Instead of thinking about Europe who are struggling now without sanctions you're talking about a country that have been in sanctions for years and still surviving.
Energy prices in Iran is cheaper than Europe.
Iran just enters with full energy and on the other hand Israel is broken ;
When they criticize Iran and speak poorly of Iranian econmy, that means what Iran is doing is damn right
Utube is going to ban me from their account if I continue posting my comments I speak the truth of the Palestinian people and the injustice
They have support ...
Biden will send more $$$$$
The question is can America afford to support another protracted war.
You can count on Biden the Betrayer to swear undying ironclad support one day & do the exact opposite the next day. It's like having confidence to run a race with a broken leg.
Russia haven't taught you anything clearly !
No Russia has nothing to offer the world. Stop being ridiculous
Iran isn't Russia.
@@joecater894 Yes, the only difference is that Iran has been waiting for this moment for years and years, and you will be surprised when any wrong move is made
,,,,,, Iran is not Russia ONTILL you realise they are.
@@bahacho9205 they clearly arent.. remotely. They can do some damage and cause major fair up in fighting.. not remotely on same level as russia. Just being real.. havent even developed first nuc.. russia is a massive productive nation with a serious navy that to some level can project power.. they have nuclear sub fleet.. they have 6000x nuc warheads AND means to deliver them with ICBMs. They have fairly top level SAM defences. Now all of those things NATO can utterly wreck minus the warheads.. but russia is far closer to pier level adversary.. they would at least be able to defend with air and ground assets.. and even naval.. however Iran has none of thos things.. Iran navy would be totally outmatched.. irans airforce grounded.. If it comes to war they are but a big Libya or Iraq.. and it'll go down the same way.. much more messy.. but the same way..
Face facts.. If west come for Iran.. if they open that gate then Irans only hope is china and russia back them up... otherwise firstly the stealths will come in.... bye bye Iran air defences because they are literally designed to target them.. precision strikes.. next will come mass airpower. Iran would have no answer.. all they could do is launch loads of missiles but as you've seen they'd mostly be taken out or other measures will be taken. Coalition forces would hit Iran security forces eventually and considering the amount of social unrest being controlled by those security forces an uprising is bound to happen... civil war. Just like in Libya.. so it would happen and it would be the end of their leadership. Now we're talking about 1000's of air sorties and a massive amount of money spent.. plus huge flair up in mid east tensions.. which could easily esculate. . so west is unlikely to do it without massive provocation.. but if it came to it that is exactly what you would see.
This is a silly question
It would if the USA chips in.
I pray that the US stays out of it
We don't need another endless war in the Middle East
We spent over $1.2trillion on Afghanistan and that got us no where
iran has all the right to defend itself
Can Iran become Persia again? The people are gifted but subjugated by a ruthless theocracy. When they wake up, throw away the shackles, Persia will rise again and become a beacon of prosperity and modernity in the region.
i am an iranian and military has everything and owns virtually unlimited land out and inside cities , you talk nonesense
Why is this woman smiling?
How far did we get?
I was their with my parents a year ago.. i can say Iran is poor, all they did is like flexing there muscle even though they really are poor in economy..like the north Korea did
no. just not.
“Iran answer” ftfy