Softwood Lumber Market Update: Mar 2021 Madison's Lumber Reporter
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- Опубліковано 5 кві 2021
- Staying level over the past month, in the week ending March 26, 2021 the price of benchmark softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2x4 #2&Btr remained at US$1,040 mfbm, which is up +$42, or +4%, more than one month ago when it was $998 said Madison's Lumber Reporter www.madisonsreport.com
Compared to the price one-year-ago, of US$356 mfbm, for the week ending March 26 benchmark softwood lumber item Western S-P-F KD 2x4 #2&Btr was +684, or +192% more.
Question why is everyone using the 180%? When it is 380% 1/2 plywood was just $10-13 it is now $50. The five big mill/lumber corps. are gouging, and they need to have their eyes put out.
Those look like retailer prices, Madison's tracks wholesaler prices across North America.
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter the big box stores have built in margins for profit vs lost they are not gouging and why did i see a report of trains full of lumber being stored in the north west of america.
it's bull. total corp corruption. say all you want. Greed, but Greed gets there's
sure ... so where were you with your "informed" opinion in 2008 - 2017 when the sawmills were losing money every quarter??
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter have you given a report on why lumber is so high? There’s plenty of it. I think the other guy made that comment because who would have thought the prices would ever be this high.
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter yeah 2008 was an economic crash. ok. I am in real estate. 37 years. right now they are using every excuse to get over. period.
Lumber prices made me change my build to ICF and steel stud. Prices are now on par with stick framing, unfortunately.
Thank you for this data-filled presentation! This information is vital to my business and projections. I've just subscribed and am looking forward to your future videos and updates :)
Hi William, if you want the full data + market update that goes out to subscribers on Friday mornings, please fill out a form here:
madisonsreport.com/subscribe/
what I put on my website and these UA-cams is just a tiny portion of the whole story :-D
New sub here. Can hardly wait for the end of April report.
First of all excellent video
Im in eastern Ontario and housing market is red hot just as lumber prices increasing. I'll wait to build things got to go down because the rise is unaffordable as it is in my case anyway
Great market read for us, thank you.
I just love getting these videos! I'm in the Southeastern US and about to start building my own house over the summer, and as an economist it's fascinating to me to follow the market fluctuations
not sure yet but looks like more fluctuations are coming before things settle down. we'll know more tomorrow, when we do the data update for subscribers Friday.
Maybe by Q4 at the soonest we may see some relief.
thanks I have 3 projects on hold...I need these crazy prices to go down.
we'll see, this week will let us know. Easter Long (long) Weekend in Canada is done .... on Thursday the weekly price update for subscribers will tell us if things are cooling off or we're in for another wild ride.
Thanks for the data.
Wow, great video. I just did a home build in North Florida for my brother and starting another one now for myself. The market remains hot in Florida. Currently in California Central Valley and it is also a hot home market. Homes are sold very quickly at the bid or higher. I often get advertisements from real estate agents looking to sell homes due to low supply.
The runup of home sales and house prices is by far not over (y)
Thanks for this
Thank you for the information. My wife and I planned to break ground on a new home and post frame building on 4/1/21. Now we are in a holding pattern.
Prices are not going to go down this year, until winter at least, so your wait will be until next year at least.
Us too. Not willing to be screwed by these greedy ----!
Thank you. Great info, not sure why you don't have more subscribers. Keep it up.
ah, it's only been a couple of months. all will happen in time (y)
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter Yes it will. I have a little secret that will help you, it certainly helped my channel. My channel is also just over two months old. But I posted a video a few days ago talking about lumber prices and it just skyrocketed. I Don't want to say it here. If I send an email to the contact @ madisonsreport. com will it get to you or someone else? Only offering because I like the info your providing and its an important topic to me and many others right now.
Good information thank you 🙏
Good information.
Found you! Will share, you are amazing.
Love that you keep politics out of it.
Facts. So great!
Prices tripled here. I have been stockpiling 5 years for my current project. I have made changes based on my finishing needs. But it would have cost me many thousands more if I had to purchase everything today.
I am building ICF. The lumber industry is screwing themselves. They will have to drop their prices to be taken seriously again.
chicago area just outside the city limits. seeing lots of pressure treated fences and decks going up this month. also more of the rural roofs are being stripped down to the purlins. and instead of plywood and 3 tab shingles covering, the roofs are being covered with screwdown painted tin
yes it was inevitable that some folks will switch to alternate materials. however demand is so high that those prices will rise also!
hardwoods are also up. Maple and walnut are up 30 to 40% YOY
speaking of price jumps. Last month I bought a roll of pre 1964 junk silver dimes for $130. A year ago I paid $75 for a similar roll and two years ago in May 2019 the same role was only $65.
THERE YOU ARE!!!! Been a couple of weeks
more coming, stay tuned!!
Oi Waving hi from Malone NY! :D
Honestly I haven't really seen any shortages, just higher prices. I've always been able to source lumber. Glulams were a bit more delayed just because of the bottle neck of production. But I've heard from all my logger friends that there are TREES TREES TREES everywhere.
yes it seems loggers have not been benefitting from these higher lumber prices .... there should be increased prices along the value chain. not sure what is happening there actually :-/
Kick ass. U rock.
2 4 bedroom homes on hold.
1 woodbridge on hold
Pole barn on hold
5 acre fence on hold.
We don't use spruce or pine we use hardwoods because of ( the 3 little pig story) lol
You put up a fence with Hardwood? Really how deep are your pockets?
@@snakeplisken4119 I've found that if you spend it the first time there's a low possibly you'll have to do it again. I'm a landscaper contractor so I get a pretty good price on that type of stuff. We are now considering a block wall.
@@rvadventures Sometimes in life you do get what you pay for. Good on you sir
Lying lol. I NEVER seen people use hardwoods on those applications.
I worked in Manhattan, Boston and Gatlinburg.
Your either lying or a .001% lol. Matt Risinger doesn’t even take it that far.
I will wait it out
Lumber yards have wood stacked to the sky right now. It's all manipulated just like oil is.
Right now the lumber yards have inventory they ordered 2 months ago. Supply chain is really difficult, the railways are not being cooperative. That wood you saw last week was already sold and is waiting to get shipped to end-user customers.
I'm with you on that.
Great video and thank you for the time trend graph. Can you comment on how hardwood prices have trended?
Madison's tracks construction framing lumber prices (softwood) across North America. Hardwoods are more often used for finishing, and prices are regional. For hardwood lumber prices, look for local newsletters.
i work for a commercial contractor yard in Vancouver,, one of our concerns is builder working on fixed price projects walking away from partially completed jobs....or going broke.
eventually it will crash, then get out of the way. the trick will be for us to not be sitting on a million feet of wood we will have to sell at big losses
You don't have to worry until at least mid-summer this year.
i would love a flat market till early fall, then I retire, then it won't be my problem
Madison, can you comment on the last 4 years when the USA put a 25% tariff on Canadian lumber and how did that affect prices, what were the benefits to the end users?
This latest duty (#5) came on when the US housing market, thus lumber prices, were doing well. Also, supply was being impacted by the devastation of timber from the mountain pine beetle. So a good portion of the latest, very high, duty was passed on to customers. The adage is that: the softwood lumber duty is an every-ten-year dividend for US timberland owners :-/ the duty has no benefit to end-users, it is meant to encourage buying of US lumber products rather than importing Canadian.
One of the best episodes. It's like a soap opera now.
haha, Lumber Economics Soap Opera :-p
I just came across your channel Keta, wonderful info. As a non-industry, owner-builder, I am quite interested in both price projections for the lumber/OSB market and the why behind them. Living here in western Maine, U.S. our economy is connected to the wood-products industry. Last I heard (it's been a few months) the price of logs was still quite low, do you see that increasing as mill log inventory declines? Thanks again for your great content.
the lack of increase in log prices, not just where you are but all across North America, is puzzling. I would expect log prices to climb as lumber prices do, that would be normal.
Supplies to the mllls are down because loggers are disappearing due to low timber prices.
yes the price of logs have not gone up, another part of this situation which is insane.
People are fleeing the high tax states, like New York and California. The purchase of existing homes has almost stopped because there are none. The central upper Midwest has very few homes on the market so the only way to move up, or move in a new house is on hold due to the sticker shock. Some people get paid to stay at home during Covid, some actually work. They go into home improvement stores and leave empty handed. The DIY crowd has almost stopped. This effect tools and components for wood working products including hinges, nails, screws and on. The majority of people are laid off with no income, not everyone has a union job. This changes manufacturing, vehicle sales as cars sit new at dealer and have birthdays. This is a death nail for East coast and West coast as renters leave for Texas, Florida and even Nebraska where I have heard people can’t believe they can own a house this cheap. Only used car repair is up even at dealers. I was a tech for decades before I had to retire. I have seen so many projects placed on hold and it starts with a tree.
supply and demand, as housing supply gets tighter demand stays strong. When existing homes-for-sale inventory gets tight, people move to buying a new home. As new homes-for-sale inventory gets tight, there is more new home building. So demand for lumber is not going to stop any time soon, thus prices will stay high.
There is a “Price inelasticity” as it implies to SPF (spruce pine fir). There was a marketing guy that figured out, let’s charge (way) more for our product. “Substitution of goods theory,” you have no choice to build the SFR house out of anything else. Houses are made of construction grade wood. You can say whatever you wish: charts, data, historical pricing, supply demand curve, equilibrium pricing, etc. Let’s talk about PT (pressure treated) lumber, it’s almost $100 for a single 4x6” PT DF 16 footer at your local lumber yard. Once lumber mill raised their prices they all followed. That’s called “price fixing,” when the market leaders raise prices and the smaller players follow suit. My understanding is the loggers and others below the line are not seeing additional money from the price windfall. The stumpage price remains the same for softwoods, correct me if I’m wrong?
Definitely stumpage and log prices have not risen in tandem with lumber prices. As for lumber prices and comments of price fixing ... in the past if that has happened the increases lasted only for the short term. I know it is difficult to believe given history; however at this point the volume of orders at sawmills and wholesalers continues incredibly high, as housing activity reaches a fever pitch. The next housing data is coming out shortly; we will see what it says. The numbers don't lie: home building and sales are at record-breaking levels and still going up.
Lumber prices are just outrageous.
$8 a board for a standard 2x4x8ft spruce
$50 a sheet for a 5/8 4x8 OSB plywood
$16 dollars for presure treated 2x4x8ft
I have household Reno's I need done but I can't afford it now with these insane Lumber prices. I would need to triple my budget now and that ain't easy these days.
Retailers are heavily hedged so their prices on the shelf normally don't change that much, but with these run-a-way prices from last year they are just trying to catch up.
Smart lady
thanks! (y)
Nice work. Please link your website into the description.
I did!! www.madisonsreport.com
We need to see a price crash in lumber. They raised the 2/x4's 3 years
ago when I was on a project from$3.25 to $4.11 because of the import
tax. which would be around 10.cents increase, so they tried to sprike
it. Well what happened. a month later, the prices dropped to $2.75 for a
2x4. and I asked why is the price less then it was before the tax
increase simple? people stopped buying, So that the power is in the
people. Stop buying for a while and the prices will go back to normal.
then when you start to buy, and the price goes to high again, you stop.
and they will get the point. They can't keep stopping productions
every time people stop buying when they over increase the price. so keep
that in mind.
retail is not wholesale (Madison's reports wholesale) but I get your point (y)
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter Yes I know, however the concept is the same wholesale raises, and retail increases much more.
crazy
yes.
Thank you for this info. Very good job. But very depressing 😒
It's bananas for sure .... and not going to stop this year :-/
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter yeah. I can not see a whole lot of light at the end of this tunnel
The big greedy corrupt corporations are responsible for all this. Solution....don't buy lumber right now. Wait the scum bags out
how is it that the price per board foot less than doubled yet 1/2" osb raised by multiple of 6+
a panel mill is not a sawmill. Completely different companies, production process, log supply, customers, and end-use. there are fewer plywood and OSB mills than sawmills. Also, there was A LOT of demand last year that did not go into home building: first to boarding up stores due to Covid restrictions, then to board up and for repairs during the social unrest, then for boarding up and repairs for the storm season.
These prices are giving me softwood! Huh huh huh
So if 2x4 SPF is $1040.00 what is going on with the stumpage pricing?
The BC Ministry of Forests adjusted timber pricing policy to make stumpage 1) updates more often (rather than once a year or every six months) and 2) responsive to lumber prices. That data is posted on the BC government website: www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/timber-pricing
(scroll down for timber pricing, Coast and Interior. Interior is divided into North and South).
How can this not be related to tariffs? We’ve been through high demand before, and prices have never been so unstable.
Yes, we have an unfortunate collision of very high tariffs 2017-Nov 2020, lower building activity in 2019, and sawmill closures in western North America due to the Mountain Pine Beetle. So the huge run-up of lumber demand, suddenly and unexpectedly, last year really put pressure on supply.
Historically, often when the duty came on lumber sales were down so producers and suppliers could not raise prices and basically had to take that loss. Once out of the five Softwood Lumber Disputes the market was doing well and Canadian producers passed on a good portion of the duty to customers in the US.
all ply could be made from the beetle killed trees . they get those trees for just cutting them down. they are free.
the supply of beetle-kill is almost depleted. in BC 12 of the expected 15 sawmill closures have already happened. lumber can still be made from beetle-kill for a few years, but not plywood. to make plywood you need the resin, along with moisture the resin is lost during the beetle infestation process. so can't use beetle-kill to make plywood or OSB
Does the price increase have anything to do with China’s buying up farm land and timber. I have a home in north central Tennessee and they are clear cutting like never before, many logs are going to China unprocessed.
There is a delicate balance between raw log sales and lumber manufacturing volumes. Not sure about your question regionally, but for the past year or so the export of raw logs from the US and Canada has increased substantially. So that's a problem for the sawmills, yes.
I think this all goes back to banking...... The big banks, central banks can't raise interest rates because of price for bonds they hold. So, they have to keep interest rates low. Low interest rates, booming economy and pent up demand for housing creates speculation for building products. Housing prices have skyrocketed recently because of high demand, housing shortages and low interest rates. A leveling off of demand for housing will probably come as a result of stagnant wages not keeping up with ridiculous housing costs limiting buyer's loan qualification. Hopefully the 'market' can sort this all out.....
$1,040 when this video was made. Now, 4 weeks later, May 3 it's $1,500.
WSPF kd 2x4 #2&Btr is US$1,420 mfbm this week.
How come there is billion dollars worth of lumber sitting in a lumber depot in Vermont USA, all from Canada? Seems somewhat odd considering price against demand.
that would is sold and in transit to long-awaiting customers. it looks like there is a lot of wood on the ground right now because transportation has been a huge pain, adding a real delay to deliveries. any wood in a sawmill yard, wholesaler, reload, is sold and heading to customers who have been waiting minimum 6 weeks.
When the price going down??
no one knows, depends on what US housing is going to do.
Stop buying price will drop
"the cure to high prices is high prices" (y)
Just look at a sheet of plywood at home depot. It keeps going up
Right now panel (plywood and OSB) mills are sold out to August ( !! ) so those prices are not going down any time soon.
A sheet of 1/4 inch was 37 a week ago. Now it's 50.00. 50 freaking dollar. This will create a black market . Crocks will be stealing plywood.
@@kuehnel16 already happening: kitchener.ctvnews.ca/stolen-truck-used-to-ram-gate-and-steal-lumber-guelph-police-1.5385347
unbelievable.
What kind of deal did the steel industry cut with the mills ?
I don't think they have, it's completely different sectors. I wouldn't expect them to know each other.
block has been less cost for a long time. whats going to happen is printed homes . concrete baby.
Did you mean they fix prices when there are fewer mills?
For panel there are fewer mills. After 2003 when Hurricane Andrew devastated a huge number of homes, the plywood (and OSB) suppliers did jack up the price massively. A few years later they lost a class-action lawsuit claiming price fixing, and had to pay penalties. We hope they learned their lesson and don't do that anymore :-/
The wood homes are very susceptible to storms and damage. Now that is went through the roof we should look to mother more durable materials to build our homes. No way am I building any projects with wood this year. 2 by 4s are $7 to $8 here now. I am hearing now in April 2021 truckers and others in the business are reporting really a big backlog of lumber now. There is too much lumber and now no one wants it because it is to expensive. Could this be manipulation or just a fluke where people were not expected to do something then they did- then privces went up and supply caught up and prices went too high.
Could you comment on the hardwood market, specifically red oak and walnut.
Sorry Madison's tracks construction framing lumber prices, hardwoods are usually used for finishing. Those prices are quite regional. you should be able to find a local newsletter price list in your area.
Big Corporations Price Gouging. Thanks Joe.. you are a real buddy.. Not....
Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Is the talk about pine beetles true or B>S>?
not bs: www.env.gov.bc.ca/soe/indicators/land/timber-harvest.html
It will slow down when people stop buying !!! Trust me
"the cure to high prices is high prices" (y)
People are not building now, even contractors. When the prices crash because of people cancelling project and homes they will see the fruits of their greed.
If the housing market crashed, maybe. Right now home building and sales activity is increasing.
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter Building has slowed in Florida. Used real estate is the mover here right now.I AM a BUILDER and REALTOR. I understand the government entities are creating this situation and trying to cash in but it is starting to backfire.
@@SuperEddietv There is definitely regional situations, and Florida is one of the places that had speculative home buying and building even before the pandemic. California really took off after the pandemic. It won't be the same everywhere; some places might slow down more quickly and by more than others. Regardless, the entire North America real estate is running very hot right now, the high lumber prices are being passed on to the end-user (new home buyer, mostly) and they're not even blinking. House prices are going up by more than lumber prices.
Costed ?
what?
These prices can't stay like this another year.
It really is unbelievable and does not seem possible. We'll see, it depends on what happens with the US housing market.
A cesky by to neslo Markétko ? ;) ( delam si srandu ) !!!
ale jo, Markéta jsem!! :-D
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter ja vim !
So is wall street manipulating Lumber?
I .... don't think so. Can't see how they could do that, buying sawmill company shares wouldn't influence lumber prices. Futures can be manipulated but not cash (or print), which is what Madison's does.
yes. Hedge fund managers bought future contracts on lumber knowing the change in polical winds would increase demand for Green Energy. Trees (wood pellets), based on the Paris Agreement adopted from the Kyoto Agreement set the stage. Liberal subsidies also add insult to injury since our tax dollars paid for it and we in turn pay higher electric bills.
just some greedy people being greedy. big whoop
The high lumber prices are driven by hot housing activity. The increase in house prices is more than the increase in lumber prices. So, "let the market set the price" it is purely a supply & demand situation.
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter Well someone is making a lot more money and not by doing are producing more. It's a rip off.
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter i doubt that the housing market is in a 6x peak tho
@@jamessullivan9992 if the sawmills could produce more, they surely would. demand is just run-a-way ... you can think it's a rip-off as much as you want, customers are paying the prices. So. Supply simply is not keeping up with demand, sawmills are desperately sourcing as much logs as they can.
@@mattrumbattrum9952 lumber prices have been depressed for several years; in mid-2018 (due to busy US housing) the price of benchmark WSPF 2x4s reached a record-high of approx $500, but only for a couple of weeks. These higher lumber prices are just catching up from 10 years of US underbuilding.
Was going to do a plywood project but am not going to due to prices. I can wait for a year or more if needed. Uneducated economist says that the lumber inventory is at all times high.
Yes I saw that. It looks like inventory is high because yards are stocked with lumber ordered 6 weeks ago, which is just arriving now. The wood currently in sawmill and wholesaler yards is sold and waiting to go out. Supply chain has been a real pickle for more than a year.
@@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter All the more reason to hold off on any lumber purchases for me! I have a lot of wood turning projects waiting and am buying a CNC. That should keep me busy! :)
@@terry2346 Good job, higher-value remanufactured material is the way to go (y)
I thought her face was one of those filters where people do impressions of celebrities....oops!
🤣
It’s lie there is no shortage of lumber .. 2x4x8 is $8.50 at Home Depot ..
I wanna build my house but if the price stay this way .. I’m build with concrete blocks !! Keep your lumber !
People build with wood because it’s cheap not because it’s best ... concrete , steel , can’t beat it ( wood house deteriorates very quickly under less then perfect condition.. not concrete steel ) !!! People build from wood because one reason IS CHEAPER !!! Now I have no reason to build from wood I’m going concrete blocks !!
Good luck with lumber ..
$8.50 really??
Total BS... Maybe you should take a trip to the mill rail yards or even your local lumber suppliers. They are all stacked to the ceilings with lumber, but prices are still climbing
that wood is sold and waiting to go out to customers who ordered it in February.
So whom exactly is lining their pockets with these insane prices?????
Everyone is asking that; right now I know the high prices are being passed on to the end-user (so US home buyer) who is paying without even blinking. As for profits, we will have to wait until financial reports come out.
Wall Street
Weyerhaeuser, Georgia-Pacific and the like, profits have skyrocketed, their financial info is public.
The MILLS are the ONLY ones pocketing the Profits....
Not the Land owners, Loggers, Haulers, or "Big Box" Building Material suppliers....
market control by the rich and corps.
supply and demand. pure and simple, US housing is red hot.
Search "Train Loads of Lumber Just Stacked Up" and see the video a guy shot last week. Supply and demand or rather they have the supply and demand triple the price.
that wood is sold and on it's way to customers who ordered it in February and have been awaiting arrival.
Ahhh. Ummmm. Ahhhhh ah. Ahhhh. Ummm. Ummmmm. Ahhh. Ummm. Ahhhhhh ummm. Great content
Thanks Danny "Bitcoin" ... great content on your page also *cough* :-/
2 views to your videos and you have comments turned off, chicken :-p
Order from China
Order lumber from China made from imported logs?? what is the point of that.
Boycott lumber