Softwood Lumber Prices and Market Update: April 2021

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  • Опубліковано 5 жов 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 140

  • @craigestey489
    @craigestey489 3 роки тому +5

    My uncle works in a large lumber mill in NB Canada. They currently have 3 and a half stockyards full. 2 years ago they’d have half a yard stocked. Their biggest issue is shipping. With the pandemic reg’s. Few want to cross borders and over half the truck drivers in Canada were temporary foreign workers that went back home when the lockdowns were happening. Lots of stick no way to get it out. So what’s left in stock has increased drastically in price

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      definitely supply chain has been a huge issue, in the past one year plus but even before that :-/

  • @thomferreira7054
    @thomferreira7054 3 роки тому +4

    I can't thank you enough for the information you are providing us. I am a sixty y.o. self-employed carpenter/builder in Massachusetts. You have been my bright shining guiding (comprehensive and intelligent) light in terms of my "strategic planning" work wise as we all do our best to get through these unprecedented pandemic times. Again, I can't thank you enough for your knowledge, dedication and efforts on here. Oh, and in terms of those inclined to throw their (negative) two-cent critic of the length of your presentations: IGNORE THEM! I wouldn't change a thing ...

  • @bearfoot100
    @bearfoot100 3 роки тому +8

    Thanks for the update. I'm putting off building, for a year, hoping this lumber price bubble will pop.

  • @craiggoodwin9704
    @craiggoodwin9704 3 роки тому +5

    Appreciate your smile even though there's often a frown on this end based on your news. Thank you.

  • @johnjaco5544
    @johnjaco5544 3 роки тому +12

    Gasoline is up food is up health care is up Car insurance is up Everything is up we better get used to it none of it's coming down.

  • @AmericanAdventuresTJ
    @AmericanAdventuresTJ 3 роки тому +5

    The large sawmills are the only ones making huge profits off this. They are not paying anymore for the logs, the loggers, the truckers, the sawmill workers, the small sawmills, none of them are getting rich, just the large mills.

  • @hongshi8251
    @hongshi8251 3 роки тому +3

    Thanks for the channel. As a former sawmill worker 2000-2009 I can't see Canadians wanting to enter such a cyclical career and wanting to move to the relative small communities to work and raise families. My employer went bankrupt and the mill was down nearly 3 years. Now revived, the employee count is not even half and the output only 1/3. I think it's crazy to think of any real investment entering as the price of lumber will most likely revert to traditional level in the next 3 to 4 years.

    • @jwill9877
      @jwill9877 3 роки тому +1

      Hopefully sooner than that. The cure for high prices are high prices. You say they won't want to invest at this price but they will. They always will. That's how bubbles are created. Everyone thinks prices will continue to go up so they get in at any cost. Enough people do that and they over supply the market and the price crashes.

  • @Forsalegreensboro
    @Forsalegreensboro 3 роки тому +1

    I would really like to see a podcast with you and Uneducated Economist in UA-cam about the future of lumber. You both are subject matter experts and that's a podcast I would really enjoy!

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      Yes this has been suggested before a few times. I agree .... a deep conversation between a wholesale expert and a retailer would be extremely interesting (y)

  • @kywoontaekim5553
    @kywoontaekim5553 3 роки тому +1

    Hi. Thanks for your information. We ate watching in NZ and Korea. Strong lumber demands are everywhere in the world. In NZ, Australia, China, Chile...

  • @tincanboat
    @tincanboat 3 роки тому +1

    thank you for your clear and concise report.

  • @RichardTalcott
    @RichardTalcott 3 роки тому +2

    GREAT update! Thank You! The detail on supply chain issues is very informative & interesting!

  • @johanolsson2207
    @johanolsson2207 3 роки тому

    Prices are out of control on all building material here in Sweden, housing market is booming also and builders I work with are fully booked for the coming 1.5-2 years.
    I live by a section of railway and have seen maybe two trains with lumber during the daytime in the past 1.5 years. Last 3 months I've seen maybe one or two a day - production is at an all time high here. This is far from over i think.
    Great info and channel by the way!

  • @stephensutherland9858
    @stephensutherland9858 3 роки тому +2

    Check out BC AAC vs sawmill capacity. Might be the reason for lower utilization you are seeing. Believe in an earlier video you mentioned BC capacity took the swing in the past but with AAC lowered due to mountain pine beetle this is no longer possible. If you could comment on the BC AAC and possible further reductions that would be great.

  • @vernonland5987
    @vernonland5987 3 роки тому +11

    Don't shorten your videos one bit. I guess your info along with the toilet paper fiasco shows us how quickly it can all come crashing down. Thanks!

  • @Theravadinbuto
    @Theravadinbuto 3 роки тому +3

    I’m not sure where you got your info on 2020 planting in Canada, but largely the industry worked put the COVID issues, and planned planting went ahead. The major bottlenecks in achieving the planting goals over the next few years are are nursery capacity, as well as in some cases labor availability.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      This is from Sept 2020: www.ctvnews.ca/politics/the-liberals-pledged-2-billion-trees-over-10-years-but-none-planted-yet-1.5108211?cache=yes%231.2727898
      Anyway I'm sure this program will get on track for this year's planting season (y)

  • @banjobenson9348
    @banjobenson9348 3 роки тому +2

    I hear it is a possibility that Hemp could be used for some building products, if prices stay high for too long the market place will catch up with alternatives.

    • @julianjobe2062
      @julianjobe2062 3 роки тому +1

      We are entertaining the option of ICF.

    • @offgridselfteliant
      @offgridselfteliant 3 роки тому

      Won't work! Hemp is too regulated wirh THC levels and crops are destroyed! Until the government pulls it's head out of its ass and regulated profit margins are put in to stop price gouging this will continue! Hemp will save trees in products like paper and other goods causing lumber to take a hit on its pulp, which by the way had been $3 a ton forever!

  • @conradhofer880
    @conradhofer880 3 роки тому +2

    Thanks for the info. always find it spot on.

  • @austingregg2144
    @austingregg2144 3 роки тому +1

    Thank you for another interesting, incisive report!

  • @theTrueOverlord
    @theTrueOverlord 3 роки тому +1

    STOP STOP STOP making excuses for those that are price gouging us...there is NO excuse / reason for prices to be the way they are except greed! I think the government should step in and put a end to this price gouging!!!

  • @chetklapprodt7282
    @chetklapprodt7282 3 роки тому +2

    Are there any market indicators that reflect a correction anytime soon?

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +2

      At the retailer level there is push-back from customers, who are refusing to pay these high prices. However, that is a lower volume of total demand than the home builders. Thus retailers don't set the prices. The latest US house price data shows a reduction -- although it seems house prices are down only because there is lower supply of homes-for-sale -- so if home construction activity slows down, therefore lumber demand eases, then prices will come down. Honestly, this is not expected to happen until August at the soonest.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      These storms in the US south right now are going to cause a rush of demand for lumber and plywood for reconstruction. So in the short terms there is not likely to be lower prices.

    • @chetklapprodt7282
      @chetklapprodt7282 3 роки тому

      @@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter I am just a humble garage builder and for my own use. September is my projected build time. Thank you for all you are doing! And for the response...?

  • @joshmann2525
    @joshmann2525 3 роки тому +2

    I was thinking the lumber at transshipment points was mostly already sold. The supply chain is lean.

  • @dennisrose40
    @dennisrose40 3 роки тому +1

    I think the top six weekly update spreadsheet has wrong change percentages in the last month change columns. Maybe I’m reading it wrong.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      Month Ago data is monthly averages, so the calculation is not precisely a week-to-week comparison.

    • @dennisrose40
      @dennisrose40 3 роки тому +1

      @@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter even given that, the percentage gains and losses don’t seem correct. I don’t know your spreadsheet very well but the numbers and percentages do not correlate. BTW, I also like your full eight minute report.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      @@dennisrose40 Ok thanks for the comment, I will look at the actual dashboard to see what is going on. Thanks!

  • @Corkfish1
    @Corkfish1 3 роки тому +1

    Is that why stumpage fees are so low? Apparently logs are plentiful and the fees being paid to timberland owners has increased only modestly. The increase in prices hasn't made it's way down to property owners

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      It's a real mystery; log prices across North America have not increased much, while these lumber prices just keep going up.

  • @roblamont8756
    @roblamont8756 3 роки тому +5

    I like the full 8 minutes 😉

  • @JB-70
    @JB-70 3 роки тому +3

    Until the loggers start getting paid more there will continue to be less and less loggers. They are the one with all the overhead and equipment cost. Logging rates need to increase or there will continue to be a dying supply.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      It's baffling why log costs, across the continent, have not risen along with lumber prices. I'm still trying to find out what is happening there (I fear the sawmills are acting unilaterally by refusing to pay the loggers more, which will assuredly not end well).

    • @JB-70
      @JB-70 3 роки тому +3

      @@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter Myself and my father are former loggers with combined 60 yrs experience. I sold out back in 2006 and he stuck it out and retired in 2015. We were still being paid logging rates same as what he was paid back in the 80's. Equipment cost skyrocketed as well as insurance, fuel cost and dwindling workforce. Logger is always the low man when it should be the other way around. I think its the middle men and brokers that drive these prices and they make all the money with low overhead. At least farmers are subsidized, which shouldn't have to happen either if they were payed fairly for what they produce. No commodity should be propped up by the government.

  • @russapplegate5491
    @russapplegate5491 3 роки тому

    Please don't change your format. Perfect Length.

  • @beachbum6351
    @beachbum6351 3 роки тому +2

    I don't think it will stop until the national home builders push back. People are still paying these outrageous prices so, on we go. When home buyers balk at the price or get priced out of the market, they will stop building.

  • @DS-zy9kq
    @DS-zy9kq 3 роки тому +1

    Great report!

  • @murraymetcalf-CA
    @murraymetcalf-CA 3 роки тому

    Very insightful & informative. Thanks

  • @Mrmikequincy
    @Mrmikequincy 3 роки тому +1

    Great Job! Thaank you.

  • @pop4725
    @pop4725 3 роки тому +3

    The short answer is we in the building business are screwed ...

  • @Forsalegreensboro
    @Forsalegreensboro 3 роки тому +2

    It will never be under 1,000 again in my opinion

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +2

      I am coming to agree: lumber was underpriced for a very long time, and these feedstock constraints (log supply) are not going to improve for the next 50 years, until the new plantings grow to maturity. Meanwhile, an entire new generation of quite a large population is entering home-buying age.

  • @MrWaterbugdesign
    @MrWaterbugdesign 3 роки тому

    Hard to see this volatility changing much until US home building slows which is not looking likely for a year, maybe 2, maybe who knows. There doesn't look like production is likely to increase.
    Much of the world has seen the price of wood products climb as population climbs and resources are consumed. In North America we've had an seemingly endless supply. There is still great supply but we're starting to see bumping into the limits of that supply as we keep increasing how much we pull out.

    • @jwill9877
      @jwill9877 3 роки тому

      The housing supply is artificially low. Forbearance keeps getting kicked down the road. Since there has been so much equity gained over the years most people in forebearance would make a profit if they sold before their house got foreclosed on. This wouldn't create a massive supply increase but a slow stablelising or small correction. Both are welcome right now. We need about 6 million houses nation wide for a balanced market. 2.7 million are actively in forbearance.

  • @yrdGBA
    @yrdGBA 3 роки тому

    So you dont think they are holding up the delivery to keep prices high? COME ON MAN!

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      They're not "holding up delivery", supply chain is a real challenge. Rail cars are late, finding truck drivers is tough, etc.

  • @tonandmarc
    @tonandmarc 3 роки тому +2

    How much is going to foreign countries??????

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      How much what, Lumber? or Logs? Canada log exports in 2020 were less than half of 2019, US log exports 2020 were about the same as 2019. Canada lumber exports to World in 2020 were down -10% compared to 2019.

  • @jamesbowen6144
    @jamesbowen6144 3 роки тому +1

    Thank You ......

  • @MrTooTechnical
    @MrTooTechnical 3 роки тому

    I love the smile. Fuking awesome.

  • @mattmurillo331
    @mattmurillo331 3 роки тому +1

    get to prices quicker your presentation is very good prices then market observation followed by forecast good luck you will be one of you tube best

  • @jimlambrick4642
    @jimlambrick4642 3 роки тому +2

    You correctly point out the demographic issues underlying this whole scenario. The obvious one is the large reverse shifts going on of people moving out of cities for various reasons including because they can work remotely so easily. The other demographic that nobody seems to be picking up on is the actual shortage of bodies to do the actual physical work. First, there are a lot less of the 20 somethings that traditionally make up the 'worker-bee' category. And these people have grown up in mostly urban environments and spent their youth looking at a screen. They want to continue that. They are not much interested in being a logger, truck driver etc or any level of physical work if they can avoid it. There are 'help-wanted' signs everywhere. This is the real crisis that is unfolding and behind a lot this discussion... except the media, as usual, seem to be totally blind to this phenomena.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      Yes the traditional socio-economic structure has completely shifted, very fast. Last year when folks were saying "get back to normal" I was like; there will be a new normal which will look completely different, but we don't know what that will be yet.

  • @markmoore1192
    @markmoore1192 3 роки тому +2

    Im moving to Mexico

  • @bmaclaps
    @bmaclaps 3 роки тому +3

    Buy your lumber from the small sawmill guys. Most I've seen aren't raising their rates to ridiculous levels.

    • @BarnGeek
      @BarnGeek 3 роки тому +2

      Yep, small sawmill prices have not gone up much over the last year and a half, maybe 20% at most. Which really makes a person question the logic behind depending so much on a small handful of lumber monopolies.

    • @julianjobe2062
      @julianjobe2062 3 роки тому +1

      Any info on these small local skills is greatly appreciated. I am here in Nashville TN. I will travel ..

  • @ervingoertzen7233
    @ervingoertzen7233 3 роки тому +1

    Been in the building trades most of my life , I don’t buy this . I date a woman whose father is in management at a mill. Lumber is stacked to the ceiling , in fact running out of storage space. Every bean counter is creating supply demand issues , all about profit. Recently ran into a few portable sawmills running crazy milling lumber on site being cleared. People are starting to use lumber rough sawn. Insane times. 3.00 2x4 is 9.00 . Foolish times letting greed control .

    • @julianjobe2062
      @julianjobe2062 3 роки тому +1

      Ervin I would like to hear more about that lumber stacked to the ceiling. It seems to me the problem may be the middleman. The same problem we had at the grocery store with the farmers when they were throwing out milk but the stores were claiming a shortage. I am ready to cut the middleman out. I will provide my own freight / transpo and come get lumber for me and my associates.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      this is accurate (y)

  • @DS-zy9kq
    @DS-zy9kq 3 роки тому

    Is it just me or do others see a dwindling of available lots and approved developments and subdivisions. Almost ALL buildable lots around me are gone or under construction. All the housing crash inventory lots are built out. Demand is currently strong, but where are the next wave of lots going to come from. I see this as a major constraint. High prices on housing took all the lot inventory away.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      It's not just you, this is a fact across North America which only proves further that the real estate market is not slowing down any time soon.

    • @DS-zy9kq
      @DS-zy9kq 3 роки тому

      @@MadisonsLumberPriceReporter But doesn't that temper future lumber demand

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      @@DS-zy9kq It might be! as house prices fell somewhat last month. we'll see next month when the next data comes out.

  • @WilliamAlanPhoto
    @WilliamAlanPhoto 3 роки тому

    Men/women Without Hats!

  • @timhansn362
    @timhansn362 3 роки тому

    Never mind , clicked to fast just saw the first word softwood

  • @shrek22
    @shrek22 3 роки тому

    Why is southeast pine so cheap?

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      Southern Yellow Pine KD 2x4 #2&Btr East Side this week is US$1,200 mfbm, from $400 two years ago. Unless you mean logs?

  • @snazzyusername
    @snazzyusername 3 роки тому

    osb was $40.10 yesterday and today it's $33.85????? What gives?

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      Retailers heavily hedge, and those prices are very regional. So, depending on where you are, an outlet may have made a good deal. Usually these prices don't fluctuate much; but right now supply is so constrained and demand keep increasing.

    • @FearsomeWarrior
      @FearsomeWarrior 3 роки тому +1

      I see everything in my favorite big box stores, Menard’s/HomeDepot, the prices take months to climb. It’s like there are charging what they paid for it 3 or more months ago. It’s in my favor because I know it’s still not the high watermark yet. Still painful paying almost $8 for a 8 ft 2x4. Sheet prices are all over and some of that at building suppliers might be changed by what builders are buying. They see OSB as high as CBX or something then they just buy that. Jumping from one material to the next based on price.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      @@FearsomeWarrior yes that's what hedging means: charging now for what they paid 3 months ago. OR predicting 3 months ago (or longer) what they think prices will be, and charging accordingly. This is so prices on the retail shelf don't change much over a year even through wholesaler prices might go up and down by $150 as usual seasonal changes.

  • @gemfaceter
    @gemfaceter 3 роки тому +1

    Stop buying and prices will come down.

  • @MrWaterbugdesign
    @MrWaterbugdesign 3 роки тому

    8:50 "...depressed US home building..." There it is. Most people I don't think know US home building has been low since the 2008 crash. Everything else recovered so I think people assumed home building do too, but it didn't. Instead many young people saw the crash hit their parents and others and saw renting as a better choice. That increased rental demand and rents which seems to have hit a tipping point...covid was a sudden push on this tipping point with people wanting space and low interest rates. So now the US and many other countries have a lot of pent up demand for moving from renting to owning. I also haven't heard anything about how social media is driving this. In the past mobs formed and moved fairly slowly. Run ups in the stock market, housing, etc.. took a few years to reach a peak. It took time for word to spread. Today it spreads much faster. Young people see peers buying and of course everything is made to sound better and more exciting in social media so more people are pushed to act much faster.
    Imo this will push the US (and some other countries) home market for a rather long time.

    • @terryconder3917
      @terryconder3917 3 роки тому

      You failed to add the real reason driving the home market and that is historic low interest rates

  • @WaltWW
    @WaltWW 3 роки тому +1

    Our two local Lowes stores here in Texas are having to stack lumber outside next to the store because they have so much they are running out of room to put it. Same thing at the Depot. Regular people are not buying any of the high price lumber, only builders who are mid project and have to finish to get dried in to get paid. These crazy high prices are paper traders FOMOing. The price will self correct soon when lumber yards stop buying because they don’t want to get stuck with anymore lumber they will have to take a haircut on to sell at a loss.

    • @banjobenson9348
      @banjobenson9348 3 роки тому +1

      and that is in the supply chain and not sold ??

  • @PaliVCiernom
    @PaliVCiernom 3 роки тому

    Meanwhile here in europe lumber is also skyrocketing, as everyone ships overseas. :( Better learn what KVH means ;)

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому +1

      Europe is having a horrible problem with the Spruce beetle and will be facing a serious timber supply shortage soon.

  • @ptizl3842
    @ptizl3842 3 роки тому

    damm I think I got wood

  • @skliros9235
    @skliros9235 3 роки тому +1

    Can you give us some good news 😕

  • @kennethpollard5041
    @kennethpollard5041 3 роки тому +2

    Another act in this play called scamdemic

    • @theTrueOverlord
      @theTrueOverlord 3 роки тому +1

      Exactly...big business taking advantage of us!

  • @kbkatherineb3944
    @kbkatherineb3944 3 роки тому

    Time to lift legal restraints on hemp so it can be used for manufacture of building materials and myriad other uses. Time to stop wasteful destruction of our old growth timber for paper wrappings and trash

  • @uchihazero8635
    @uchihazero8635 3 роки тому

    My stocks are printing

  • @ddellwo
    @ddellwo 3 роки тому +1

    Toupee’s are next.....😂

  • @roscocsa
    @roscocsa 3 роки тому +1

    Grumble. I just want to build this stupid table!

  • @mike9672
    @mike9672 3 роки тому

    #StopTheLumberPricing

  • @NoOne-ze7fv
    @NoOne-ze7fv 3 роки тому +1

    Any excuse to rip off the public,shameful to use a pandemic and people dying to gouge customers.

  • @TheGregWallace
    @TheGregWallace 3 роки тому

    Softwood....LOLOLOLOL!

  • @angeldetierra3855
    @angeldetierra3855 3 роки тому

    ►.....♥!

  • @banjobenson9348
    @banjobenson9348 3 роки тому +1

    Part of the problem the freaking liberals will not get out of the way and let the mills operate etc

    • @terryconder3917
      @terryconder3917 3 роки тому +3

      How about the tariffs the freaking republicans put on Canada lumber etc

    • @banjobenson9348
      @banjobenson9348 3 роки тому +2

      @@terryconder3917 at best it would raise the price of a 2x4 30 to 40 cents not 6 dollars, by the way you can take your mask off now if you go outside.

    • @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter
      @MadisonsLumberPriceReporter  3 роки тому

      the US Administrative Review reduced the tariffs to approx 5% in November. Right now f/x is more of a factor, an US$0.80 CAD is bad for the lumber exporters. The industry is accustomed to a US$0.75 CAD, $0.70 is better.

  • @tonandmarc
    @tonandmarc 3 роки тому +2

    Rip offs