The "Luckiest" Speedrun in Perfect Dark History: Real or Fake? [Complete Analysis]
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- Опубліковано 20 кві 2018
- On May 31, 2011; a man whom not much is known about, posted an incredible World Record speedrun on Perfect Dark's Attack Ship level... 4 seconds untied ahead of 2nd place. The run immediately became one of the most contentious in the game's history, with the runner getting luck even he himself believed to be in "one in a million" territory.
After years of periodic study, and now months of close examination, I've analyzed this legendary run and leave the question up to you... do you think Chuya actually got this World Record? Or are the combination of questionable factors surrounding the run too much to overlook?
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The Run: • Attack Ship Agent 2:06...
Perfect Dark's Longest Standing Untied WRs: rarewrs.free.fr/perfectdark/lo...
Attack Ship Rankings: rankings.the-elite.net/perfec... (videos are linked directly on page)
Henrik's "PD Facts" post about the Attack Ship ending: forums.the-elite.net/index.ph...
Chuya's forum posts from his Attack Ship runs: forums.the-elite.net/index.ph...
r/speedrun discussion on calculation methods: / any_statisticians_in_r...
Tomohisa Yamashita: vimeo.com/212369259
Special thanks to Icy, Henrik "Wyster", Karl Jobst and Bryan Bosshardt for their always helpful information and expertise
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You can find The-Elite World Rankings with tons of videos linked to it, right here: rankings.the-elite.net/goldeneye
Feeling inspired to try for yourself? Sign up for The-Elite rankings here: rankings.the-elite.net/join
As always, you can watch me live at / rwhitegoose
and follow at / rwhitegoose
Thanks for watching, and until next time, stay true! - Ігри
![Why Does No One Speedrun This Game? or, The Odyssey of the Lost VHS Tapes [a Fireside Story]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/JZhKEBwCfTs/mqdefault.jpg)
![Why Does No One Speedrun This Game? or, The Odyssey of the Lost VHS Tapes [a Fireside Story]](/img/tr.png)
>1 in 11,007 Chance
>007
Chuya is double 0 agent confirmed.
waiiiiiiiiiit a second
THIS RUN WAS ON AGENT
chuya will never be a true double 0 agent
Chuya is a true player, trust me.
god is real, trust me
As someone who has caught many cheaters in the past, having friends of the accused come out and say ""he doesn't cheat because i am friends with him"Is completely meaningless, he may or may not be legit, but these type of comments never help anything, and in my experience are more common when the person has infact cheated.
Cockulous Love your aesthetic ♡
Bro really busted out the negative binomial distribution calculator
Most people dont know that Goose is a tenured professor at the University of Speedrunning.
"This speedrun is by Takizawa, from Japan"
*Googles most generic Japanese imagery possible*
Paul Pince Great profile picture.
I catch a Street Fighter 2 reference (E. Honda Stage to be precise).
For US players, Goose should use an oil barrel picture.
@@RedHairdo Sounds more like Germans, good replacement for the swastika. For the Americans, Julius Caesar getting stabbed to death by the UN and NATO.
@@RedHairdo Why not a cowboy with a six-shooter?
I don't know which Goose I like better, proper clean cut sweater Goose, or cursing 3 buttons loosened, sweating, aggressively celebratory after a major speedrun victory Goose. Either way it's always a delight.
LOL
RWhiteGoose I first saw you speedrun at AGDQ when you and the other guy did Goldeneye with split controls and I loved it. Everyone said you looked like Vince Vaughn and my first thought was Aaron from the Walking Dead. Lol love your stuff man!!
Marc R marc R..... Marc Rutzou?
Marc R you've been found...... The ultimate truth is MINE
RWhiteGoose
It's fake RWhitegoose the black and white footage should be a give away.
It's probably been recaptured on an emulator through an AMD card that used to have composite.
It's an illusion, you would get far better results from a vhs so why do it this way?
Here’s a bit of moderately incredible proof which your video provides: The spawn time of the last aliens wasn’t known when Chuya did his record speed run, yet it still complies with that rule. I don’t know the answer, I’m not even a gamer, but it does seem plausible: When luck is involved (Random Number Generators) the best runs will always contain extremely low statistical probabilities at the highest level of competition. The key for me is that Chuya’s run complies with a then-unknown rule to a few tenths of a second. That seems highly improbable unless it is in fact genuine. Just a thought.
This is a very good point
Yeah the whole premise of poor odds to have such great spawns falls apart when you consider that will always be the case for the top runs, since that's literally why they are the World Records.
this is the piece that stands out to me as well
This entire video is just an attack on a runner whitegoose doesn't like. Zero evidence except "he got too lucky wahhhhh."
Stephen Goose never said he didn’t like the runner, and even said he might have done it. While the point raised above is certainly great, I’m sure Goose has thought of it. Don’t be so quick to judge.
Skedar is my new least favourite word
This is a 34:03 long video, and that's my time. But it's weird, Chuya's time for watching this video clocks in at 33:59.
had to have been listening to jpop while watching, it's the only way
Everytime you listen to Jpop, reality distorts and takes 4 seconds off your life.
You might say you miss them. But to a speed runner it's a great reward. Hell, put one of these guys on a spaceship into orbit while the recording device for their run is on Earth. Might save a millisecond. _Ooh- my precious._
@@kodi0223 It's true, I was listening to Jpop and finished this video in 32:15. Not even Chuya will beat my score.
Chuya isn't going to watch this video until it has a million views.... he has to be one in a million
This is the funniest thing I've read on a YT comment in a long time. Good on you and thanks for the laugh.
I enjoy how obsessive this video is.
Robert Syrett someone should make a “Skedor” counter lol
same. i feel like obsession is part of the nature of speedrunning
ye i don't really care about the subject i just enjoyed the slowly crumble of sanity hehe.
No just a hobby.
*this channel
While I'm pretty indifferent toward the validity/prestige of this run, your videos stand by themselves as great entertainment. The formatting, dialogue, and delivery are top notch, even for those of us totally unfamiliar with the elite community.
yeah. tbh i don't care about these games and they're speedrunning history until I see that he has a video on it and then I'm so emotionally invested
Watching this i learned the word 'skedar' and within 10 minutes it had lost all meaning.
Skedar is also the swedish word for 'spoon' and it's pronounced 'hwedar', i've been here under a year and I hate it
Hey Goose. I've never speed runned in my entire life nor have I played Goldeneye. However, I've watched nearly all your videos (including the 2 hour long videos of levels I've literally never heard of of).
You make everything incredibly interesting. It's fascinating.
Aarron 123 same, im invested in a community ive never been a part of
I'm exactly the same
Me too.. I'm just a regular player, but loooove to watch the speedrunning community, they are awesome. Great videos Goose.
same!! It's videos like these that edge me closer to speedrunning every day
Can't wait to rub one out to this vid
Legend
To the top
ua-cam.com/video/u2X7GCUhZJs/v-deo.html
Masturbating to a video where you dont have the record is speed cucking I guess. I let Goose decide on that one. Keep it up Karl
@Karl, It's Yuri Soren from The-Elite, when I was on the Elite before I got myself banned because I wanted to move on. I just wanted to say you're amazing and I don't doubt you can beat because if a TAS run of attack ship agent can prove it's possible, you certainly can do it as well. I'll be cheering for you.
Did Todd Rogers upload this run..? Where’s the coffee stain
on the in-game timer
This guy started the run in 2nd gear and was actually able to reach gear 20 an impossible gear to reach by the end of the run
Savage sir 😂
I think he did it.
I think he caught lighting in a bottle and wouldn't be able to get even close again.
The beautiful bastard.
ONE IN A MILLIONNNN
What if because of this video, the whole world puts chuya on blast and he actually comes out and produces the original?
The drama is better than wrestling.
REAL LEFT-DOOR SKEDAR HOURS WHO UP
i love you
raya nami begone
REPORTING IN
MR CARINGTON IS GONNA HAVE MY NUTS AFTER THIS FUCK UP
Look at this furry bird
LEFT BEEF GANG
Seems like another case of a PAL user in Japanese territory, which pretty much explains the terrible capture feed.
The only thing I can think of is this guy had to have known something about the level since the forums showed he's hit a 19 ending before he even set a 2:06 (claiming a 19 ending on a 2:13 run). That means that not only are the odds of getting a 19 ending are so low only 1 person has done it, but he has done it on multiple occasions.
Maybe PAL version has something different in this level? I don't know much about perfect dark or the expansion pak (much less for PAL), but when you enable 480i (576i here), doesn't the game run at 30fps? If so, is it possible that maybe the game does a doubly byte check at the end (2 byte checks every frame instead of 1)?
Please keep us updated If U Look Into this im Very interested now ( even tho i never speedrunned lol)
Yes, please do! Hopefully it'll shed some light on this mystery
keep me updated too, this could be it for sure
Actually, if you check his 2:37 in Special Agent (ua-cam.com/video/EbpS3D7RLyc/v-deo.html) he seems to get the Right door Skedars nearly as fast as in his 2:06
Either he had a little too much luck, or there is something really going on with PAL
Also, has anybody tried messing with or limiting the RNG with a gameshark? That'd be my first approach, but I've never played with PD.
I've gotten MMO drops rarer than that run.
Remember, rare things happen. it is only who it happens to that is the coincidence.
@Sparka But you do it more than that many times. You don't have more than half your runs fail on the way
nodvick I was gonna say exactly this, I have multiple items in MMOs that have confirmed drop rates between 1in 20,000 and 1in 50,000, a few of these items require boss fights that last 2-10min. It seems very probable that a game with this level of RNG would have very low probabilities on its top runs.
Jazza BigHits you actually do have close to half your runs fail due to reliance on other players to do things properly and boss fights often last up to 10+mins in an MMO whereas a level on perfect dark might take as long as 3 minutes or less, players with these rare mmo items almost never run the boss/raid thousands of times, they just get lucky running it a couple times per day and hoping for the best.
It falls so far short of a reasonable burden of proof. Submitting a video that bad with idiotic music overlayed would makes it easier to dismiss without having to worry so much about the probability of attaining the record.
Is the run legit : maybe.
Did he prove it: no.
It honestly is a "guilty until proven innocent" situation we have. Until someone can definitively get a 19 second ending and record it on video, its safe to say the run is probably fake.
he just edited out the waiting time... that's why the vid has bad quality and is shaking, so noone can spot the cuts
bro this is from 9 years ago, people weren't anally irritated redditors back then and you could just post a video.
Someone else here said this: the fact that the alien spawns follow the rule they did not know at the time proves it. I don’t really know enough about the game to say anything about this, but it sounds plausable.
Statistician checking in here. The odds of getting at least 3 successful checks in the first 35 is about 0.035%, or 1 in 2,815.
What you're missing in your calculations are the many combinations which are slower on 1-2 of the 3 segments, but still faster overall.
For what it's worth, I have serious doubts about your methodology in general here. Speedrun.com has half a million database entries. Those uploaded runs likely represent about 50-100 million attempts at various categories and games. Events less likely than this have happened hundreds of thousands of times. When you begin to look at short runs which contain large amounts of RNG, it's only natural that the leaders in those categories got incredibly lucky.
Particle physicist checking in here. I agree... it looks like another example of the "look elsewhere effect"
The first things he's shown has no relevance cause it doesnt make sense. The 2nd one is pretty close but just a tad too high because of the problems. But with his 3rd he totally fucked it up. He discarded 75% of all runs with less than 35 checks just because a small percentage of the higher ones are slower...
College drop out checking in here. I don't really have anything interesting to add to the discussion, just wanted to drop my credentials.
Actually the question wasn't "what are the chances that some speedrunner listed in speedrun.com playing a short game with large amounts of RNG would get 1/14000 odds" the question was "How likely is the outcome of this one very particular run".
I would have probably approached the problem similarly to goose; counting the total number of states possible for the denominator, counting the number of states where there were 33 success and 3 fails, and subtracting the number of those states that would result in the right door opening too quickly... idk
I have a WR in an almost completely RNG Arcade game. It took literally about 10k completed runs to even have 7-10 chances at a good score, chances. I have 4 APWR runs and just from the RNG side of things, those magical times might not even come up as often than the statistics show. My game is 1:39 secs long and had, what I considered, 4 segments. Most, and I mean most like 95% of runs were over in 5 to 15 secs. I was lucky and the reset to starting was near instantaneous and I even reset to start 9/10 games-before they even began, because of the pre-start RNG. With 10k games completed (I once played like 7 hrs straight) and nearly 9x that never even began, I had 4 runs “above previous world record”
.
.
.
.
.
But there was a run
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.
.
.
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So unlikely
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.
.
I had broken the 2p world record with a friend earlier and was hot. We had taken a break and stopped filming. I popped back on to stay loose and I literally doubled the Previous WR. It’s an inconceivable score. The game is 40+ years old and no one could imagine a score like this possible. I have a photo but no video. I broke the game. I cracked the physics and had theeeee best luck with the RNG. I’m kinda glad I didn’t get the video because it’d’ve killed anyone’s hope of ever scoring on that game ever again.
The RNG is unlikely but it’s there, you just have to place yourself in the right position to take advantage of it when it pops up in your favor. I think the Perfect Dark video is real, he shoots the last dude with like three shots. As soon as I saw that I had instant flashes to what I considered imaginary timers for events (#3 spawning) going off in my head (like the QB’s ‘in the pocket’ timer, in football)
Oh snap, it just hit me, if the hypothesis is the video is faked. Would he have used a TAS? If so, how would the TAS respond to the RNG of the #1 spawning/shooting/turning/reacting to right door opening? With the odds that the video states, it seems MORE probably that what we saw was a human reacting to badass RNG than a TAS made to take advantage of a 1/11k ending. What did I miss? And the Arcade game was Death Race :)
IT Guy Checking in here,
Using probability to disprove something is legitemate or not is silly in general.
just because a specific thing working out how it did is rare doesnt mean it never happened or will never happen
I speedrun various Tetris like tgm3, etc. Nothing else. Yet you are the only content creator that I consistently enjoy, or even watch over half the time. Your writing, your voice, it is all perfection my man. A ton of people appreciate everything you do, and I really wish there were more like you in the community. Your quality is unmatched, in my opinion. Rarely do I ever comment but I felt like after multiple views of your entire collection I have to say something. If it means anything coming from some random, you are appreciated more than you probably know. So start teaching all the other so-called "representatives" of this community how bad you make them look! Cheers from Colorado.
one of the most historic speed runs of all time. full credit to ace for finally matching it.
So I'm not an expert in Perfect Dark's inner game mechanics at all, in fact, I have no idea how it works...BUT I am a programmer and I can potentially add some insight that wasn't mentioned in this video:
1. You said that every 2-4 frames, a 'byte check' is made. It is likely that the in-game 'byte checks' are determined using a modulus on the frame number the game has played on. so in other words:
if [FRAME_NUM_NOW] % 3 == 0, then BYTE_CHECK
If the discrepency between 2-4 happens only at the beginning and end of a sequence, then this would possible explain why. However, if the 2-4 frame check variance occurs midway through a time period (how you would you ever even know?), its possible that the same modulus check is being used, just not on the frame number, but something else.
2. Your probability calculations are not entirely reliable. In all of your calculations, you are assuming that each probably of a successful check is independent. In the case of computers/video games (especially older game like Perfect Dark), they would be using whats known as a 'pseudo random number generator'. This actually the very opposite of random. a PSRN works off an 'initial seed' value, and from there the next 'random' number can be exactly determed. It is what's known as a pure function -> the same input will always produce the same output.
So for instance, lets say the PRNG algorithm is called f(x), where x is the seed. If the initial seed is 10, then f(x) will come at as 238 (as an example) every single time 10 is input. That value of 238 becomes the new seed to the next call for a random number:
f(10) -> 238
f(238) -> 17
f(17) -> 111
f(111) -> 3
and so on. The purposes of these PRNG functions is to simulate randomness, despite being completely deterministic. Knowing this means that the probability of success on Check 2 might be dependent on Check 1. And Check 3 is dependent on Check 2, who was dependent on Check 1. I know some other speed runners in other games have reverse engineered the random number generators used in games in order to benefit their 'luck'. As for how Perfect Dark works though...I have no idea, but its pretty much guaranteed that its using some sort of PRNG.
Just my 2 satoshi.
There are people who exploit the seeds but it seems very unlikely in a game like Perfect Dark that is constantly generating random numbers in response to the player's actions, especially at the end of a level.
I have never speedran anything but u make this shit seem so interesting.
Perfect Ace just tied this record!
Great job as always man. I can’t help but watch till then end cause your videos are getting so good at telling stories and how you lay out all the information. Keep it up
22:29 minor note, you're calculating the probability that it happened on that byte check *or earlier*
Now, this is the correct approach, it's just that you said it wrong.
Yeah it actually seems likely he did it. Seriously it seems more incredible that no one ever got another "19 ending" if the odds really are only 1/14000
Well im sure people have had 15 second spawns but werent speedrunning or reset the run because of a mistake made early most runners trash runs if they fall to far behind there personal best split times
@@johnsorrows8998 that's exactly the point behind my comment. It's happened before. But it's not just those 20 seconds that decide the run. There a whole bunch of runs that got tossed for early mistakes that rolled 18 19 second ends.
@@johnsorrows8998 , I'm*
@@johnsorrows8998 too*
@@johnsorrows8998 their*
1) Video quality is probably explained by playing the PAL 50hz version and recording it onto a Japanese 60hz VCR
2) Judging from his post history, he played that level alot in spring of 2011 (he has regular updates in the "post new times" topic during that period)
Not saying that confirms it, but it has some merits
That would explain why it is black and white but not the shaking and low quality.
If it was recorded to a VCR it is not that hard to beleve in the poor and shaking quality. A bad VCR and maybe some interfeerenc? this is very common. If you have a microoven that is on they can interrupt the signal or even a light switch that is "almost" on is quite normal also to get bad quality. But how likely is that if you think about it?
I did have a few recored movies back then that was "good" quality and often after 1,5-2 hours it would just be shaking or some inteeferrenc.
I find it believable personally.
@@martinlund9524 Sounds plausible, but what's the possible explanation for the random music? Their recording setup couldn't capture the audio from the TV?
Xane Myers he's Japanese, they just kinda do stuff like that
The Skedar cloaking is like Pokemon 1/256 glitch on steroids
Not gonna lie, I had a mini-heart attack when you said "Kryssstal with her Link to the Past run". My name is Kristal, and I enjoy LttP (though I don't speedrun it), and for a second I thought I was being accused of a crime I had never committed, and was about to be sent to speedrun jail. Which I assume is just playing a really slow game like Desert Bus.
"Kristal sets new untied world record on Desert bus from speedrun jail, after discovering groundbreaking new exploit allowing you to drive at 45.1mph"
ImBarryScottCSS lmao please
You are one in million 😍😍😍
Knowing your content, the fact that you're here simultaneously confuses and amazes me.
Uh, i have no idea who you are, but have you seen The Interrogation by randytaylor69?
*miriyun
Lmao my man pig cake out here
Piggy
One day I was playing through Mario Kart 64 for my girlfriend, and on Toad's Turnpike I got the exact same time 54:XX for all three laps, down to the hundredths. It was a bad set of laps too, I hit cars on each. I was in absolute shock. Wish I had been streaming/recording, or at least not have casually been mashing A through the results screen.
yeah but imagine that happening perfectly on awr run every lap
Great story tellers in history:
William Shakespeare
Morgan Freeman
Notorious B.I.G.
RWhiteGoose
Shaun Cahill
Forgot 3PAC.
Forgot Summoning Salt
You forgot Slick Rick
vaatividya
Ahoy is a great youtube storyteller. I could listen to that guy all day.
Real of Fake should be not the question here. Should the video be disqualified for such poor quality, no audio, and no time stamp. I can forgive the audio, I can forgive the quality. The time stamp should have had this video disqualified for the very reason that we are all having such a hard time crunching the numbers. The time stamp should be a required method to put this all to rest once and for all. No stamp? Disqualified! No matter how good it seems.
My 2 cents after watching this. As there is no way I would be able to know. Sucks for the dude who got the record but if you can't play by a set of defined parameter rules, people will cheat and find a way to usurp those very parameters set.
The time stamp was there for a reason and you glaze over it like it shouldn't matter that much. It should be a key point.
Ty this exactly. Retroactively remove that shit. Ain't that hard.
I think since it was allowed to be added with this quality it would be unfair to remove it after the standards changed
I agree but this looks weirdly altered and probably should have never been allowed..
The defined parameters were not always what they are now. His lack of certain things wasn't as controversial when the run was uploaded, and if we get rid of his run because it doesn't follow modern day rules, we'll have to remove hundreds of runs from hundreds of games. Or else we're just being hypocritical by removing one.
If it just had the timer in the corner it wouldnt look so sketch.. the song isnt helping its case lmao
You can actually find out whether these times are possible if you analyze the random algorithm in Perfect Dark, considering the fact that random algorithms aren't random you can find out (by seeding correctly) if it is possible. And due to it being pseudo-random the actual chance of this happening could be SIGNIFICANTLY less, because similar "byte patterns" is essentially predetermined, so to ACTUALLY determine the chance you would have to know the entire pseudo-random byte pattern.
Absolutely true. Even if the odds are truly 1 in 11,000 that doesn't mean it should be suspicious to have been obtained. Sometimes crazy shit happens, once but never again. Sometimes you try and never get it. Some people hit a 1 in 3 million odds on a lottery scratcher buying only one in their lifetime. On the flip side I've personally bought tens of thousands and the best prize I've hit had odds of 1 in 3,600, and I was still lucky to get that. Odds are the furthest thing you can get from black and white when it comes to consistency. Always expect exceptions and never expect to get what you know is possible. You might get 100,000 "perfect" runs on Attack Ship Agent and never get this ending.
This run could very well be real. It could be fake. Given that people have analyzed the video as best as possible given the quality and have not conclusively proved it to be fake, I think there's a better chance of it being real than fake and should be left alone until proven otherwise.
The amount of work put into this video is insane. Keep up the good work man I hope his video goes viral
I have absolutely no clue why I enjoy this content type so much, I never speedrun anything, watch speedruns, or even know this game *at all*. Quality content I guess its just the history/numbers nerd coming out haha
The odds of a leaf falling at an exact specific time at an exact specific time are astronomically small.
But leaves fall at specific times to specific spots all the time.
To think that events with astronomically small odds don't happen is to vastly underestimate the number of things that happen.
Leaves don't fall at specific times to specific spots "all the time". I would venture a guess that it's never happened before actually.
Go try it yourself. Go in your yard and look at a leaf on a tree. Then pick a random time and a random position on the ground and see if it falls then/there.
It won't. But if you look at a leaf already on the ground, it's a lot easier to "feel" like it was statistically likely to end up there.
@@voidofmind I think you miss the point. The point is that if you see a leaf fall to a ground in a specific spot at a specific time, it has done so.
Yet the odds of that event happening in exactly that way at exactly that time were so astronomically small, that you could never have predicted it in a million years.
If you take all the speedrunners in the world playing all the games in the world for as long as they do, one of them is bound to have something extremely unlikely happen at some time, in some game.
Ryan Lockwood would have skipped the 206
He is a legend after all. Never seen a 206
What's the joke?
i'm taking you to flavor town yes
Just look up Streets 1:12. (And uh, don't click that time code, that'll just jump to that point in THIS video)
i'm taking you to flavor town my life
I had a look into this myself out of curiosity, I think Chuya did do it legit, but I would’ve taken down the record until Perfect Ace matched it a few years ago. The awful quality is because Chuya was trying to record a PAL N64 on an NTSC-J VCR, it technically recorded, but the video was in black and white and shuddered constantly. Chuya was running on PAL because Attack Ship is heavily advantaged on PAL as the region impacts Elvis’s behaviour. The lack of timer and audio is suspicious, but he might’ve just disabled the timer as he knew it was unreadable anyway to reduce the distraction. The audio isn’t as suspicious either considering video did once exist with original audio, and the run was likely verified with this, but only the music video survived since these were more popular in the Japanese scene, only the more popular one got reuploaded. Although the lack of timer and audio makes it much easier to hide a splice, the shaking video actually makes it a lot harder, since you’d need to make the shaking match up, and a splice is made more unlikely by the fact that the alien spawn times (unknown at the time of the run) match the legit values to within a few 10ths of a second, if the run was spliced without this knowledge they’d be really unlikely to match. Even the music chosen seems suspicious, a song called One in the Million on a run with almost unbelievable luck? Well, that’s not as bad as you’d think considering the music was likely chosen *because* of the luck, being dubbed over after the video was filmed.
The run seems suspicious on the surface, but in reality it would harder to cheat than people expect, and since
*t r u l y r e m a r k a b l e*
Another awesome video. I'll never get tired of your work, Goose.
Great in-depth video, love when people get immersed in subjects like this. It's truly inspiring
I'm a statistician. I haven't checked your calculations though (too tired at the moment), but remember that any observed run has an incredibly low likelihood of occurring. So we should be careful in judging the validity of a run by using this type of reasoning. Because any the likelihood of any run (good or bad) occurring just the way it did, is incredibly low.
I'm not a statistician but this argument sounds bogus
He’s saying the odds of replicating any run- no matter how amazing or mundane
Are quite low
Likely implying that the odds could have happened considering how unlikely it is for any run to happen the way it does in the first place
@@PatRiot- as in.. the odds of his times are exactly the same as the odds of any other times? like... rolling a 1 then a 1 then a 1 is the same as the odds of rolling a 3 then a 2 then a 6
2011 UA-cam was a weird time where 1/10 videos had just shitty music, low quality, and no actual sound, so this speedrun fell into this category.
This is a ridiculously nerdy, obsessive report about a game that came out nearly two decades ago.
I like it. SUBSCRIBED
Fantastic rundown Goose. Thanks for all you do for the community. You make a complete outsider feel like he could talk shop with the pros. I mean, I can't. But it feels like it.
It's clear if any splicing happened, it happened at the final uncloaks, perhaps the last one.
Maybe it's a TAS run.
True.
Yea I'm not for sure but it was just my instincts since that's the most chance- dependent part of it all
Very true then there's the beginning part which can be luck based.
OmegaVideoGameGod tas is against the rules
You assume numbers to be random, but they are just an LFSR sequence. There's usually only tens thousands of possible sequences. Should disassemble and check, but... and if it checks against a piece of ROM, then the result is even less random.
Also you're looking at the footage and watching for a splice. But there won't be a splice. What for? When all you need is better luck, just modify the ROM with a Game Shark. And there will likely never be proof! Even if the footage was at good quality and had its audio, there still wouldn't be proof.
There's also the problem that the old WR doesn't meet the current quality standards of the rankings, so really it *shouldn't* count anymore anyway. But I guess since there's no real proof that it's cheating other than poor video quality, they're not really gonna grandfather the time out since no one has managed it yet.
Chuya is my friend and doesn't cheat. I say "friend", as he has been on my friends list for nearly 8 years. I met him when PD came out on the Xbox 360 as an xbla game. He went offline for a few years because of the Fukushima incident but I've seen him back online every now and again. He is def 100% legit. He also is in the top 2 players in the world at Ikaruga.
Yep, most games/software in general only have pseudo-randomized numbers. Truly randomized numbers are actually quite a bitch, as Random.org can teach you ;)
ROM checks are probably random enough, in any case they're unlikely to be manipulated.
No, not in the sense of being manipulated, but in the sense that they will introduce a distribution skew. At least LFSR is evenly distributed.
Best work so far. Keep em coming
The RNG used on the byte check is probably not very uniform. I recommend finding out what it is and finding its probability distribution, then recalculating your decloak probabilities.
Most games and software in general use pseudo-random algorithms, not anything truly random: www.random.org
Deathbrewer Yeah, that's what I said.
This op needs more exposure !
This record honestly feels very similar to Marc Rutzuo's dam 00 agent 1:55 with its horrible quality along with being ahead of everyone else's time
Who would ever need a tape measurer?
Wow, I was a bit skeptical when you mentioned "I'll let you decide if it's real or not" but the explanation is clear enough that I still felt very satisfied with the ending. Great video.
Looking back I wouldn't doubt if it was in fact a TAS because like Rwhitegoose said, back in 2011 you just needed a video. ~ Yuri Soren.
This was an insane video. Thank you for making it!
Maybe he gave up speedrunning to focus on a career of Japanese polished foil balls.
Chalky lol so dank of a comment
Chalky goddamnit
I love how you explain the engine's quirks.
Perfect Dark is still one of my fav FPS ever with Half-Life
I love all the thought and effort you put into this. It was very interesting. While the odds of that run happening were extremely low, crazier things have happened to me in gaming. In pokemon Y, I ran into a horde of 5 gligars, 2 of which were shiny. I haven't done the math but I'm sure the odds of what I encountered were lower than what happened to that guy.
it seems to me that (as you also mentioned) the wobble in the video could be there to help hide a splice, or it could be an artifact from recording/editing.
if the wobble was added to help hide a splice then stabilizing the video would highlight it otherwise why bother making it wobble?
it seems to me on first impressions that each frame jumps side to side so if you were to bring the odd frames left a touch and the even frames right a touch so they both line up perfectly again then it would become a stable video and then any jumping that happens after the wobble is removed would be evidence of a splice, unless im missing something on just how the wobble presents itself it should be a simple thing to do in an editing suite.
as for the youtube account getting closed down due to copyrights. that is commonly encountered, if you get just 3 ongoing copyright claims at the same time on your account then you are gone. only if you can resolve a copyright claim properly before a thrid occurs or prove the claims are not legitimate can you avoid it, besides not using copyrighted materials obviously.
many channels have been closed down temporarily due to a few spurious copyright claims and many more closed permanently due to real copyright claims mounting up. perhaps when he uploaded them he thought they would be safe there and so didnt keep his own copies? Sounds silly but maybe he never foresaw the big copyright banhammer that youtube put in place becoming a problem.
the odds are slim but very plausible. without audio to analyze theres only the video to scrutinize. if after making it stable there isnt anything evident then its possible that the odds of it being real are higher than it being fake. this might be one of those claims that never gets resolved due to the evidence being flawed
pal console recorded onto a japanese vcr. thats what makes it do that.
"It's my one in twelve thousaaaaaaand..."
That was captivating and thorough. Brilliant stuff
Thank you goose. Keep these videos coming.
What are the chances of getting 2:06 without first getting 2:09, 2:08 or 2:07? Surely that would be astronomical?
sammosammy That's an interesting point. With it being so unlikely you'd think that they'd hit every time along the way if they were even good enough to take advantage of the lightning-strike odds.
on the order of 1/30, remember to get below a 2:10 is around say ~1/500 luck, remember the end is almost all about luck. There is next to no gameplay at the end. Thus *anyone* needs 1/500 luck at the end, then there is a chance that in fact you get an extra 1/30 on top of that (to make ~1/14000) luck
a simliar thing could be on the Goldeneye 007 levels: Frigate Secret Agent, (gooses first Goldeneye Speedlore episode) Hostages complete extra randomly so. you could have lots of say 1:04 pace runs but NONE complete; then as you play you get better at the stage and your pace lowers on average to 1:02 before a run just magically (aka randomly) completes. Thus you skipped strait from 1:05 to 1:02 because of the RNG factor.
On that Level Perfect Ace Ryan Isran went from 1:01 to 0:59 UWR; skipping 1:00. And then later that month LP went from 1:00 (previous UWR) and skipped 0:59 and got the new UWR of 0:58
on a luck baised stage like Frigate SA (or 00A) your PB could go several seconds lower with great RNG on a fast paced run.
This is just what he uploaded. Goose said allegedly he had been making attempts for a month.
He might not have uploaded any other times. It used to be that you didnt upload a time till you were either done running or got a time you were happy with
he wouldn't be happy with an untied record? i find this very hard to believe.
It'd be really cool to see you collaborate with Summoning Salt someday. Perhaps a history on the world records of 007 or Perfect Dark?
oh no i remember what happened the last time someone asked him that question ua-cam.com/video/A92Rduvh8KQ/v-deo.html
Sebastian G. I'm sure it could work if you just talk about one type of run and go over the most major runs of that (ex: just do agent any %, talk about the most revolutionary records).
Thanks for making this entertaining and informative video. Controversies aside, it was interesting to learn more about Perfect Dark and the underlying mechanics of speed running attack ship.
Holy shit, I started this video thinking it was no chance I would watch it to the end, but it happened in a flash.
A really good video that is able to hold my attention in this day and age of so many distractions.
have my subscription, you earn it!
Hope you eventually do PD Speedlore :)
Considering he doesn't have nearly as much personal involvement/experience in the history of the PD community, any series he did like that will just not live up to the 007 ones..
Sato Yeah he mentioned that before, but he also mentioned that he might do a collaboration with someone who has more knowledge than him about PD, which would be cool to see
Sato - You might be right, but that's no reason to not do them. I enjoy all the vids he's done because he's simply good at making them. It isn't just the content and expertise that makes it good. I'm always interested in seeing him tackle a topic as long as he is actually interested in it. If he doesn't want to do a PD series then I don't think he should, but otherwise I'm here for it.
He said on the forums that he's planning to do Defection PA and have Karl co-host
AForgottenEvent Sounds awesome :D
Speedrunning should be banned
I guess that would stop the cheating
ikagura lol
Degenerates
@@conkerlive101 haha
finally making some PD videos, great Goose. Hope to see more, cheers from Argentina
I think this is your best video. Please make more like these.
You've never seen channels get removed due to copyright strikes???
Not for gameplay he means. Speedrunners never get copyright strikes for just uploading runs. This guy got striked due to using copyrighted j pop song apparently
Matt Petty back then they didn’t care about music. Now they do care and remove channels
Drink when you hear "Skedar".
I do a lot of stats in college for my major. Your statistics are on point. Your presentation of those stats is better than most professors I've seen. Great job dude.
Though it's important to note that most games and software in general use pseudo-random algorithms for convenience, not anything truly random: www.random.org/
Great video as always Goose!
People win lotteries with less likely odds.
I call the record as "not proven false". IMHO record stands.
Simply put there is not enough evidence to say whether is real or fake. So it should not be considered a legitimate world record, until new evidence comes out. Other than that fantastic Analysis, can only imagine all the work to make this. Truly remarkable and inspiring. Keep it up.
Lucio Castro I understand where your coming from, the burden of proof lays on the accuser. If you don't have proof if cheating, there's really no reason to imply that it's there.
Nick Misner the burden of proof is on the one making the claim lol
Wouldn't that mean the opposite? It's possible that it's real and there isn't enough evidence to show that it isn't, so we should give them the benefit of the doubt and count it. Maybe put an asterisk with a note pointing out the issues to make people feel better.
The quality is obviously garbage but if other runs of similarly bad quality are accepted then this shouldn't be an exception just because of how lucky it is. Now I only follow Elite running through this channel so it's possible those runs have been purged and if so this should go too for that reason alone, but my understanding based on every single Rutzou run ever shown here is that abysmal quality is still counted. Of course, it would be totally reasonable to just stop counting all runs of quality so low they cannot be properly analyzed and if things like this are an issue in the community then that might be the best move forward. They could even take a half measure and maintain two sets of records, one including all runs and one of only the runs that can be verified. That would be more work but would allow us to track both "the confirmed best times" and "the possible best times, if you believe in miracles." But in any case it seems like a change in the community as a whole would need to take place before any action is taken on this particular run since it's not actually impossible (which is the way most other faked runs are discovered, not just "this is unlikely" but "this literally cannot happen in the code") and presumably meets the current low bar for quality standards.
Cyan Light Yeah you are totally right. The argument goes both ways. I just personally think runs with a quality so low that its impossible to determine if its real, due to all fhe new discoveries of fake runs, should not be accepted anymore.
I can definitely agree to that, purging all of the ridiculously poor quality runs would solve a lot of these issues.
Awesome video man. Subbed.
Dude....I haven't played Perfect Dark in YEARS and I don't have a head for maths at all, but this video was awesome. Extremely well narrated and very entertaining
whenever someone says Goose doesn't have 200IQ, show them this video
Ok if you click read more you are signing a contract(a meme contract) where everytime you have to scroll down to this comment everytime you load this video, ok?
Goose doesn't have 200IQ.
@@dddmemaybe "Goose doesn't have 200 IQ...
he has 2000 IQ"
Sounds like it's time for Karl to go for this record
Didnt know what to expect from the title but you never dissapoint.
Never done a speedrun myself but I love this channel
I don't know anything about this game but I thought the stats challenge sounded fun so I decided to have a crack at it.
I figure that it all basically boils down to two constraints:
-- The sum of the times taken for the clone and real right skedars to spawn needs to be no more than 1.9 seconds (19 byte checks) to be fast enough for the "19 ending".
-- The real left skedar must spawn no later than about 1.5 seconds (15 byte checks) after the clone right skedar, or else the right door will already be open before the player gets to it.
To get the probability, I treated all three byte check numbers as geometrically distributed variables with success probability 1/256, then added 1 to get the time rather than the number of failures. That's not totally accurate, because of the cap of 5 seconds, but if any of them get anywhere near 5 seconds then it's guaranteed that the ending won't happen anyway so it doesn't matter. I used a brute-force simulation method where I generated a whole entire boatload of fake byte check numbers (like 2 billion) and checked how often both constraints were met.
I got an estimated probability of 0.000202, about 1 in 4950, which is somewhat higher than your estimate but I still think it's plausible.
Seems about how I'd attack it. That means RWhiteGoose's calculation is too conservative by a factor of ~3x, which sounds reasonable when dealing with these kind of probability combinations.
I think the best approach would be a more theoretical approach, using the second method discussed in the video and disregarding the false positives (no first byte checks later than 21st byte), as there are 35 byte checks, this means (14*13)/2 out of (35*34)/2 or 91/595 or 15.3% of the "successes" in the second method are false positives. Since 1/14,307 is the chance of the exact order in the run happening, and 1/2,815 is the chance of any of the orders (including false positives) happening, the real probability disregarding false positives would be around 1/4572, pretty close to your estimate.
That's pretty interesting, but I'm not convinced that works.
There's another problem with Goose's second method as well as the false positives: it treats the 3 spawns as following sequentially one after the other. As far as I can tell (he explains it at 14:55 in the video), the byte checks for the first two spawns, the real left and clone right skedars, start at the same time, and then the byte checks for the real right skedar start when the clone dies. That means that it can't be assumed that the maximum number of byte checks for the first spawn is always 21 -- rather, it's the byte checks taken for the second spawn, plus 33 because of the 3.3 seconds it takes the clone to open the door, minus the time it takes the player to walk to the right door from the time the first spawn happens, which was 1.73 seconds in Chuya's run and 1.92 in Bryan's, so I used 18 byte checks. 33 - 18 = 15, which is where the 15 comes from in my method.
But first, let's talk about parallel universes
Nice researching and presentation skills.
I'd calculate the chances of having that ending in one specific run (not taking into account number of runs in any way) a bit differently (tl;dr: 1 in 4244). This would include two assumptions that without more knowledge of the game I can't avoid: 1) the checks are completely independent 2) the checks actually happen every 0.1 seconds consistently. First we forget about the first skedar (for now) then we count the total nunmber of checks combined for the clone and the real right skedar. In chuya's run that was 6+13=19 (more could perhaps be added since you only approximate to a whole number of seconds; meaning that a 2:06.9 is equal to a 2:06.0, or if it's rounding then 2:05.5 is equal to 2:06.4; but if we only analyze the chance for that end and better we can go ahead with the 19), meaning there can be 17 failed checks. So the real right skedar can have 0 to 17 failed checks and the clone up to the remaining number of fails or less. Then we'd calculate how many fails the real left skedar can have, which would be the same as the clone skedar plus the leniency (calculated as 23 in the video).
Here's an example before we generalize it. Let's calculate the instance in which the real right skedar uncloaks in the 8th check and we get an ending as good as or better than chuya's. The probability of the real right skedar uncloaking exactly on the 8th check is (255/256)^7 * (1/256) for 7 failed checks. This leaves us with up to 10 fails for the clone skedar, so 11 total possible checks for it: 1-(255/256)^11. Then we also need the left real skedar to spawn "soon enough", so up to 23 checks later than the clone: 1-(255/256)^34. So in total, the chances of getting an end as good as or better than chuya's with the added of the real right skedar decloaking on the 8th check is: (255/256)^7 * (1/256)*(1-(255/256)^11)*(1-(255/256)^34).
Now, to generalize we simply add up the chances for each of the 18 (0 to 17) specific number of fails acceptable for the real right skedar: summation from n=0 to n=17 of (255/256)^n(1/256)*(1-(255/256)^(17+1-n))*(1-(255/256)^(17+23+1-n)). If we put that into wolframalpha it gives us 0.00023565 or, approximately, 1 in 4244. The +1 that I've left out explicitly is due to the difference between failed checks and total checks since one of them has to be a successful one.
PS: I've never played perfect dark so there might be a number of wrong assumptions in there since all my knowledge about the game comes from this one video.
Also, in case i made a mistake with wolframalpha here's the "code" i used in it: Sum[(1/256) (255/256)^k (1 - (255/256)^(18 - k)) (1 - (255/256)^(31 - k)), {k, 0, 17}]
Fantastic episode, lots of work obviously went into this one.
I reckon the run was genuine, it is possible, and no inconsistencies have been found with the timings on detailed investigation, he probably just got lucky, it happens.
Should the run have been accepted as a record with that standard of proof? well that's a whole other question, nearly certainly not, but it's easy to forget how much things change, good video capture is a lot cheaper and easier now than it was 5 or 6 years ago.
I've studied quite a bit of combinatorics at uni, and when you showed the first probability, I immediately thought "no that's not right, you should consider the three byte checks in the entire time span" and then you went and did that. You never disappoint, Goose.
Just a question, when going through how fast they can uncloak with the byte check; would using a different version of the game hold different results? Some of the versions should run the byte check faster than others.
Nice to see some PD content, would love to see more.
Re: ‘Did he do it?’ Probably not given his track record and the vid quality, but more improbable runs have happened and will happen. The thing with any luck based variable is that it can mislead people by trending one way or the other too soon. Someone being on a hot or cold streak, for example, is easily explained as just part of a series of consistent runs, but when you’re close to the data it looks significant.
I think this run is legit. Maybe nobody have seen 19 ending because the level is underplayed? How many people actually tried to grind this level? Also, a lot of bad runs ended in people just quitting or restarting before getting to the ending, so the fact that it haven't been seen on a garbage run makes sense.
Also, let's compare the probability of getting this insane record to an another insane record - Dam 52.
Probability of getting attack ship 2:06 or lower:
1/11000 really fast ending
+
Let's assume 1/10 objective 2 completion on pal
=
Around 1/110000 chance of getting 2:06.
And now for comparison
Probability of getting dam 52:
1/3000 chance of getting 3 boosts( Karl played dam for 250 hours, he got 3 3 boost runs, assuming he played dam 40 times per hour 250*40/3= 3333 I rounded it up to make math easier)
+
1/4 late alarm(according to Karl's dam 52 explanation video)
+
Let's assume 1/2 chance of low lag
+
Let's assume 1/100 chance of getting really fast gate( Karl's run had fastest gate on a 2 boost run ever, but 2 boost runs are rare and fast gate strat is rarely used).
= Around 1/2400000 chance of getting dam 52, over 20 times less likely than getting attack ship 2:06.
So, the probability of getting attack ship 2:06 is not that insane.
The difference is that Karl streamed his dam 52 live and there is adequate video evidence. While I would like to believe that attack ship 2:06 actually happened, the video evidence is not enough for it to be viewed as a legitimate world record in my eyes.
Your math is very rough and you've guessed on more than half your variants. This is false logic. Looks good but has no real substance. The only thing you need to know about this is 1)no timer and 2)no one has ever seen a 19 ending before besides this one guy who claims to have got it not just once but multiple times. Bullshit. Fake. The timer is in the game itself. For it to not be there he had to alter the game itself or the video. Goose seemed to be saying he could see the timer still but there is literally nothing where the timer should be.
Just so you know the timer was in the video just unreadable because of quality. Either way the odds make it hard to believe.
Also remember all the normal casual players. See not everyone records there gameplay do who's to say the RNG needed to make this run possible hasn't happened to normal players not speed running it thousands of times.
That is the nature of RNG afterall you can't prove it is impossible witch low chance alone.
@@AcceptGamingDKD Was just going to say imagine all the times casual play-throughs have gotten much better luck than that and the luck was wasted due to not really caring about the time?
Goose's most INTJ video to date, yet, the most fascinating.
Seems like a weird comparison to me. Pretty much every NT pairing personality is analytical, so why call this one an INTJ video?
Thank you for the clarification, goose. Not going to lie, I have never actually watched your streams as of yet. I just find your videos very informative and interesting.
Chris Holland Music Personality type: INFJ. Yip.
Ily Goose never stop making videos 😍😍
I don’t know jack about perfect dark but you explained it very clearly goose, great job!
M Y F R I E N D S
For some reason I believe its real
God the Carl Sagan picture put a smile to my face. Nice video btw!
Someone please tell me what system I can play this on today I miss the game so bad and would die to play it again and how do they record or even stream it