What Happened to the Leadoff Hitter?
Вставка
- Опубліковано 27 жов 2023
- In modern baseball, the conventional notion of a leadoff hitter as the fastest player with a high batting average and stolen base potential has evolved. Teams now prioritize optimizing their lineups based on data and statistics. The leadoff spot is the most critical position in the lineup, with the highest expected runs and runs created per game. This shift in strategy has led to unconventional leadoff hitters like Kyle Schwarber, who may lack speed and have a low batting average but excel in other aspects, such as working deep at-bats and drawing walks, thus setting the tone for the team. The focus is no longer solely on speed and average, as teams look for players who get on base and create more scoring opportunities. This new approach has resulted in slow hitters with high on-base percentages being placed in the leadoff position, demonstrating that a one-size-fits-all approach to leadoff hitters is no longer valid in today's game.
Music provided by:
Artlist.io
&
HOME
/ home-2001
Instagram:
/ analyticswithchris
TikTok:
/ analyticswithchris_
Twitter:
/ greveanalytics
Scriptwriter and Director:
Chris Greve
Editing and Voiceover:
Matt Greve
#kyleschwarber #phillies #mlb #mlbpostseason #baseball #diamondbacks #bryceharper - Спорт
![Toronto Blue Jays Vs. Tampa Bay Rays [TODAY] GAME Highlights | MLB Season 2024](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/XFR5DWsNMhU/mqdefault.jpg)
Billy, his name is Kyle Schwerber. He’s overweight, slow, bad at defense, and he’s constantly among the league leaders in strikeouts…but he gets on base
Such a good movie
I love how you tied it together in the end
Imagine how much higher his on base percentage would be if he cut down his strikeouts by 20%
Honestly, the biggest credit to Billy Beane's Moneyball team, are named Zito, Hudson or Mulder.
And that's not the true schwaber effect. His teammates bat like .050 average higher with him leading off.
I'm OK with the trend of having on base be more important for the leadoff spot. But in an overall sense I want to see baseball play a lot faster and be less "three outcome" focused.
Yeah I agree. It’s great to see a balance and fast players are a ton of fun.
I would think that Schwarber striking out 200 times a year negates his OBP, at least when it comes to batting leadoff. Hell wouldn't Harper be a better leadoff option?
I would think that Schwarber striking out 200 times a year negates his OBP, at least when it comes to batting leadoff. Hell wouldn't Harper be a better leadoff option?
Wouldn't strikeouts be least important from a leadoff hitter? If nobody is on base ahead of them, a strikeout is entirely identical to a groundout, flyout, any other out.
It's gotta be the single spot in the lineup where strikeouts are punished least given that at least one PA per game has nobody on base and likely more given that 7-9 hit ahead of them
@@unkledoda420 he could strike out 400 times w/ a .350 OBP and still be a net positive in the leadoff spot.
Had to do a double take on that title cause i thought
"Wait what does that austrian painter have to do with baseball"
Believe it or not he invented the 7th inning stretch
I’m glad I’m not the only one, I saw Le Adolf Hittler
@@nickhueper2906me too 😂
STEVEN KWAN HAS GOT IT GOIN' ON.
I think it makes a ton of sense. Most of the traditional lead off hitters aren’t real power threats. A guy like Nico Hoerners gonna get on base just as much as Schwarber despite hitting like 80 points better. What does it matter if it’s a single or a walk if you still got a runner on. Combine that with the power to give the team a lead and shake up the pitcher from the first at bat and it’s a good option.
Haa nothing to do with "shaking up the pitcher" but...
@@paulg6274Absolutely does.
Statistics remove the human element from the equation.
Getting a lead off homerun has a good chance of shaking up the pitcher for the rest of the game.
@@randomstuff508 significantly moreso than a HR from the 2 hole? 🙄 Fans make these elaborate psychological narratives to explain everything. 😂 Pitchers have given up hundreds or thousands of HRs in their career, it's not like every time it happens it completely changes the way they pitch for x amount of time. And you think its rattling them so much that its worth more than having a runner or 2 on base for that HR? 😂 Further, most human element theories can ve tested via analytics
@@randomstuff508 Statistics don't remove the human element, they show you what the output of the human element is.
@bobbygetsbanned6049 Mhm. Yep.
That's why so many pitchers are staying healthy this year.
I’m I the only one that thought it said adof hitler
Yes
Nope I somehow read that to
Dyslexia fro teh wni!
I’ve been looking for this comment for 10 min
These videos are so damn good. Absolutely love how he is able to pick things apart and then put them back together so it makes more sense. 👨🏻🍳
I feel like George Springer as leadoff for the Astros was a game changer
Brady Anderson
@@deepzone31Anderson was a lesser version of Rickey Henderson
@@N1120A I accept that.
Back in the day the Angels batted Brian Downing leadoff. Lifetime .370 oba. Had pop. Was slow.
Wade Boggs was the leadoff hitter in Boston more often than not. Can't say he didn't get on base. And was slow.
This is not a new phenomenon. OBA is the single most important stat in hitting. It's a lost art in most respects. Working counts and getting on base.
Speed is important too. Ricky Henderson had a undeniable impact on the game.
Brett Butler fouling off 12 pitches and walking in his first at bat had a impact on the game.
Kenny Lofton...
You just have to have a guy that has that ability. And it's lacking in todays game.
A certain professional bowler in Los Angeles has that skillset
Putting Ricky Hendersons picture up when you say "what was important in the past is drifting away" is quite silly. He had a career .401 OBP and if you take out his rookie season and his last 4 seasons his OBP was even better over the heart of his career. Ricky was exactly what you are talking about here as an ideal leadoff man with the same cherry on top that Acuna has. If he was in his prime today he'd be leading off, not because of his stolen bases, but his consistently fat OBP (297 HR doesn't hurt either).
Wade Boggs (a slow guy with great OBP) was batting leadoff in the ‘80s (sometimes).
.330 lifetime hitter with 3,000 hits are the key stats.
Rickey Henderson says, “Rickey is the greatest of all time”
❤ Rickey was amazing
Correct
I like to say Kyle is not batting leadoff, he's batting cleanup for the 7-8-9 hitters. If we do get value out of the 7-8-9 batters, Kyle has a chance to bring them all home with a single swing. On top of that, he gets on base a lot and has a speedy turner behind him who is fast enough to avoid almost all GBDPs. He's technically leading off for inning 1 but is kinda batting 9th for the rest of the game.
Would players who would’ve been hitting leadoff a decade ago hit 7,8, or 9 now?
oh god that's genius
yo this video is fantastic keep up the good work i hope your channel blows up and you get the recognition you deserve!
Great video. I hadnt quite put together the value of seeing more pitches and hitting dingers from the first spot. After all, a home run is a guaranteed run but getting on base relies on the guys following to get them home. I wont be as upset anymore seeing these sluggers at the top of the lineup
i dont recall "the book" saying 1 was the most important, from my memory it said 1, 2 and 4 are where you put your best hitters, but you need different guys in each. if you had 2 guys with the same obp, but one has more home runs, you want the one with more home runs batting second
“The Book” used to say you put your best hitter 3rd.
@@lordofthemound3890 im talkin about the actual book called "the book." the metaphorical book used to say that, but, that was wrong, doesnt matter too much though, dont sweat the lineup too much.
I get the more at bats for power hitters who bat lead-off, but they also bat more with the bases empty. Batting in the clean-up spot you get less at bats over the course of a year, but you bat with more people on base.
If only someone posted a UA-cam video discussing the very thing you’re talking about
@@lucasscott6984 For lead-off hitter give me the high on-base percentage guy that can steal 2nd and 3rd when needed to manufacture a run to win the close game. I want the power guys batting 3rd or 4th behind speedy high OBP guys with more power. I want the 3 run bomb instead of the solo homer.
Leadoff hitter only bats leadoff once per game. After that, he is just like anyone else, just with more plate appearances.
@@shorewall The lead-off hitter is guaranteed to bat with the bases empty at least once per game. After that the batters with the potential to be on base for the lead-off hitter are typically lower on-base percentage hitters. Whereas the cleanup hitter typically has the higher OBP hitters hitting ahead od him.
The best option for picking a great leadoff hitter is to get Ricky Henderson. Okay, I guess that's not possible anymore.
🎯 😂
Teams don't what there doing anymore
How did you make your intro? That was amazing watching the players coming in that way!
Very entertaining.. i’m Digging the background music .. Good job .. 👍🏼
Thank you! We spend a lot of time looking for songs 😂 glad you enjoy!
Great video bro, good job 👍
Thank you!!
Bro that title is nuts I really thought Hitler played baseball for a sec
I know this is a month old but I’d like to point out a few things. First, the stat with RBI+R is very flawed, as home runs count as both an RBI and a run for the player hitting it. You’d have to make a home run only count for one RBI+R, as it’s only 1 run scored and not 2, like it’s counted. Secondly, Trea Turner stated that he cannot steal bases a lot because he’s in front of Harper, and if he steals, then Harper will get walked. You mentioned how his stealing isn’t as valuable with power hitters, but I’d argue that successful stealing is more valuable than given, as it forces the pitcher to adjust his approach to the current batter. I’d rather see Trea Turner leadoff with Schwarber second, as if Schwarber gets intentionally walked, it’s not as big a deal since Harper, Bohm, Castellanos or Realmuto will follow. The numbers don’t agree with my statement, but they don’t have the context we do to see that lineup configuration is a balance between the numbers and the players, with the goal always being run scoring.
Guess you could fix RBI+R by just adding -HR to the equation
The Leadoff Hitter figured out than he makes more $$$ if he swings all his might EVERY time (like the PGA) and accidentally hits 20+ Homers.
Definitely a interesting concept, and is just further proof that batting average means very little.
At this point, I view it as a fluff/sparkle stat. Its cool to look at, but it doesn't mean a whole lot.
Agreed!
Great video!
I'm pretty sure that over the years on base percentage was always valued more for the leadoff hiitter than just considering pure batting average. As far as speed teams don't have any idea how to utilitze a player with base stealing speed anymore. There were so many other factors that a Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines affected when they got on. They disrupted everything on defense from the pitcher to the defensive positions. If a guy gets 30 stolen bags today he's a superstar. That doesn't even sniff the numbers that Henderson could get where in his best season he stole 130 bags.
Kyle Schwarber's two seasons at leadoff did NOT produce as many runs as Rickey Henderson did despite the massive HR totals Schwarber racked up. Schwarber is never going to sniff seasons like Henderson where he scored 146 or 130 runs. And if you look at RBIs to compare the two Henderson by correcting (deducting) HRs from Schwarber's totals Henderson's RBI totals also still compare well too. But what the numbers nerds really don't understand is the chaos created by men with speed on the bags and how it affected the overall play back when speed play was utilized. But then again that's why numbers nerds do what they do and aren't athletes that know how to play and win in sport.
Personally I don't get why they are playing power bats leadoff. I think you should have your highest obp guy that isn't necessarily your best hitter at leadoff. If he's fast great if not then it's not a big deal.
Just foind this channel , love the content and degails ypu put in the baseball videos
Thank you!
How is this new? Rickey was getting on base more than anyone else forty years ago
I loved having the home run with soler in the 9 hole.
2:46 "In Chronological Order" would just mean in order of time.
Just a minor little nitpick
I'm really curious if there has been an increase in first inning double plays since this change in the role of the lead off hitter.
Bret Butler , Otis Nixon, Rickey Henderson, these arw leadoff hitters. Dodger's have a Bret Butler type in high A- 1st pick ( there's) Kendall George. Same look size , stance, speed,. attributes etc. Other than pigmentation difference obviously.
Speed is a lot more useful for someone in say the 7 spot than the leadoff position. Getting a stolen base, only to have the person behind you hit a double or HR negates the benefit. But going from 1st to 2nd for a slap hitter with no power is going to generate some runs.
I'm a hardcore analytics/sabermetrics apologist, but I think managers and players need to get back to stealing more bases. The breakeven point is generally 67%, and that's not really hard that to get, and not running enough just doesn't put enough pressure on pitchers.
Honestly, I think that avoiding steals is less about sabermetrics, and more about owners wanting to protect their investment and avoiding injuries.
great video!
Thanks!
One huge problem with this.. the 2 teams in the World Series last year play old school baseball. You will see the teams playing old school win in the playoffs more.
One of the best videos I’ve ever watched, great work
Thank you!
The first time I read the title, I thought it was about a grandson of Hitler or about a guy with a really unfortunate name
Well, I can’t speak for every team, but my team’s lead-off hitter led MLB in stolen bases and also won the NL MVP last season. Also he was the first ever 40-70 player.
The problem I ha e with all these analytics is that they all focus on slight advantages over the course of a season like 10 extra potential runs but can anyone point to a single instance where you can say that would actually have made a difference. You cant say the 10 extra runs ever came in a 1 run game. For all you know it's just 10 more runs in blowout wins or losses. And it seems to me that the champ at the end of the year pretty much ranks the same in OBP that they do in BA. Almost like the entire different between their OBP and the rest of the league is that they just hit the ball more. And honestly I think it makes much more sense to build a team around BA because in the playoffs, against elite pitching, you can't rely on getting walks. If I'm in the 9th in the playoffs vs an elite closer I hope my leadoff guy hits .300 rather than be someone who is going to stare at 3 heaters painting the corner.
I do like how the Phillies ended up losing both of the series you highlighted with Schwarbs (22 WS, 23 LCS). Funny how you can tell stories with statistics but somehow conveniently omit the most important outcome of all.
The goal of analytics is to provide a slight edge, which over the course of a season might result in more wins etc. Fans and critics of analytics mess up by thinking single event outcomes are heavily influenced by analytics
Analytics has been so much more of a cancer to the sport of baseball and all professional sports in general then it has been a boon. Those who played at a remotely high level before it's obsessive adoption knows that is the truth too. Those who never played will never understand how fucking stupid and obtusely pointless it is.
The thing is: Kyle Schwarber does not get on base.
His BB% might looker impressive but combined with his extremely low BABIP, he only has a career .339 OBP.
And this year, there are 4 guys on the phillies, including now Bryson Stot, who have a higher OBP than him.
The issue is that these 3 true outcome guys are great over the course of a 162 game season. But sometimes you just need well rounded guys who can get on base in a variety of ways when things tighten up at the end of a playoff series. The Phillies power-first team and lineup construction came back to bite them in games 6 and 7 of the NLCS.
Kyle had an on Base% of nearly .400 last year, 47 homers, 100 RBIs, and 100 BBs. I'm fine with him not hitting .280+
His name is Steven Kwan
i agree obp is honestly far more important than avg at the leadoff but looking at a team like the phillies, turners obp is that much lower and so having him at 1 and schwarber at 2 feels much more valuable, what goods a leadoff homer when he could hit a 2 run nuke batting second, in most circumstances id agree but schwarber hits way too many bombs that couldve lead to lost rbis
Getting hits doesn't matter as much when the bases are empty. A walk and a single are the same. Singles are worth more with runners on
@@bopete3204 no but home runs do, in the phillies case, trea turners obp isnt that much worse than schwarbers so him going to 1 and schwarber to 2 means much more potential runs with 2 run shots instead of solo shots, in most cases schwarber at 1 would be perfect but phillies are one of the few with a players whos close enough that dropping him down 1 wont change much
He may get on base a ton, but unless the next guy up hits a home run he's not going to score because he's too slow to get around the bases quick enough. I'd rather have a high OBP guy whose also fast in the leadoff spot so he can actually score if the next few hitters put the ball in play. Schwarber should hit cleanup where he can protect Harper and others in the lineup and hit his 40+ home runs with guys on base. THAT would lead to more runs.
the lead off spot is 4th highest on this list, not 3rd 5:04
As Phils fan this is not aggravating me at all. I look at Runs and OPS by Schwarbs. A double is just as good as a single and a steal. A walk is a s good as a single. Would they be just as well off with Trea at leadoff? Yes, but there is a fear factor for starters who know what Schwarber will do to a mistake. He's such a tone setter (as we have seen in the playoffs).
When will a manager have the courage to field a team of the vertically challenged?
Makes you wonder if the Giants would have won the 2002 WS if they led off with Barry Bonds 🤔
Schwarber's career OBP is not much higher than league average. If leadoff is the most important spot in the lineup why not use Harper there? No one would claim Schwarber is a better hitter than Harper.
I thought the guy who leads off is the guy who gets on base most...thought that was always the case...
"Turner could have been an amazing leadoff hitter on another team" we loved him in DC
Jarren Duran.
That’s the whole comment.
I was spoiled growing up with Soriano
Another reason why baseball was better before.
This video makes valid points, but give me the leadoff guy with speed and OBP. When he gets on, he can throw the pitcher's focus off with his base stealing threat.
Idk how many RBIs Schwarber had in 2023, but i think he wouldve had way more batting behind Turner instead of vice versa. And probably wouldve seen more pitches to hit. But thats just my opinion.
Agree to disagree.
I was waiting to see someone with a comment like this. Thank you good sir
You called him Lance McMullers
His name is McCullers
Where did you get “who sees most pitches per at bat” stat
Fangraphs and Baseball Savant both have it
Steven kwan has something to say
Well, kid me was on to something when I always put Bonds (the fake Bonds since they couldn't use his name) at lead off in all the baseball video games I played
@breadandcircuses8127 Haha yep you know it. I think it was John Dowd tho?
It honestly seems like if a guy with a high OBP has a low BA it’s better to put them in the lead off spot so guys that get hits at a higher rate have someone on base.
Youre right. If you simply put the guy who walks the most leadoff it would work out most of the time
If the ‘08 Phillies were playing today, who do you think would be hitting leadoff?
Hmmm this is interesting. Rollins was not a bad leadoff hitter for that team at all because he still got on base at a super high rate and saw a lot of pitches. It wouldn’t surprise me if this team played today they tried Utley leadoff since he had the best OBP. That lineup was so loaded there are so many options they could’ve done and most would’ve worked.
On base percentage
Ironically, the Nats of all teams are staying true to the old ways with the speedy, high avg CJ Abrams leading off
Steven Kwan would like a word…
You dont want to know what my brain jumped to when reading that title
But i do.
@@isiight.adolf hitler?
This is why baseball is great. I have often wo dered why the best hitter doesnt hit first. More at bats/game
Best hitter should hit 2nd or 4th cause its not just about most ABs but ABs with runners on base are also very important. It's bizarre how 3 hole is actually 4th most important slot but thats how the permutations work out
@paulg6274 the 7 8 and 9 hitters can get on base too so the "best hitter" #1 has rbi opportunities right?
@@Bhanna4d but if you put good hitters 7 8 and 9 to get on base for the lead off, those htters are getting less ABs/game so that hurts more than gains. Your 3 worst hitters should hit 8, 9,7 in that order. "The Book" analyzes optimal line up construction in depth, it all makes sense.
@@Bhanna4d haha well ya obviously you want everyone to get on base, nobodys advocating for making outs, but the 3 lowest ob% guys should hit 789, maybe 678. You do want your 9 hole to be better than 8 hole cause the advantage of being OB for top of the order outweighs the slightly less plate appearances; but that's as far as it stretches
This is why you want to put your best hitter 3rd.
Speed isn’t as important these days because base stealing isn’t as big a part of the game.
The new rules have helped a little to bring stealing back but it’s a high risk, low reward play.
Not only are you risking an out but you also increase the risk of injury significantly.
Very true. It can be situationally good here and there but it is more of a cool bonus than a determining factor for the value of an offensive player.
I was using this strategy 10 years ago! (In MLB the show) lol
It'sa losimg strategy
Hate to sound like the "get off my lawn" guy, but i miss the old school leadoff hitter types. To me, they made the game more exciting.
Otis Nixon, Kenny Lofton, Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson, Rafael Furcal, and i could go on forever.
Oh, another underrated one was Scott Podsednik. He was good for like a couple years though.
Ichiro got turned from a slugger in the NBL to one of the best leadoffs in the MLB
Rocco Baldelli as well before injuries derailed his career
.343 OBP%? I guess it's easier for pitchers to sit a batter down when the nerds are telling the batter to swing for the fences on every pitch. Remember .400+ OBPs?
I have a feeling that OBPs are down because pitchers are better
Remember steroids?
I am actually game to hit a Schwarber lead off. But a .343 OBP ain't worth it.
i mean this with full respect, you talk like the baseball version of the burger king foot lettuce guy
Guys known for their speed, either hit leadoff or ninth nothing in between, at least that’s how it was when I played 😂
Today I learned that Bryce Harper should be the leadoff hitter
i just want my best hitters getting the most PAs
pitcher 8th is big brain. done that in mlb the show for ever til they added dh
Explain
More likely for the 9 hitter to get on base for the top of the lineup
That's incorrect, average has never truly mattered for a lead-off hitter, only the on base percentage. A good example of this would be someone like JP Crawford, who last year only hit .266, but yet had an OBP of .380 which was 11th best out of qualified hitters last year. But then you look at someone like Bo Bichette who hit .306 which was the 8th highest average in the league, but his .339 OBP pales in comparison to a guy like Crawford who walks well above the major league average, while Bichette walks well below the league average. If you're not on base at a high rate, your chances of stealing bases goes way down. Though someone like Schwarber doesn't hit for a high average most years, his extremely high walk rate has helped him to produce a .339 OBP, which is actually higher than the major league average, thus making him partially acceptable.
Not everyone is a power hitter. This issue has to, become adressed.
Not every teams does this...
I know but, it has to be said out loud.
Wade Boggs use to leadoff
Why do we like Schwarber?
Because he gets on base
in the '95 World Series the Indians manager got paid to bat Gold Glove SS Vizquel at the 2 spot AND good hitting 2B Baerga at the 3 spot, while batting legend Manny Ramirez 7th... the Indians did not win despite the Braves love of batting ZERO offensive talent Mark Lemke in the 2 hole... teams had no idea how to generate runs with line ups, it was pathetic at the time given Bill James was already a published author... fax!!!
Felt like I was watching money ball when they say they get on base
I thought Leadoff Hitter k!lled himself at the end of WW2 after it became clear that Germany would lose the Battle of Berlin
trea turner a “big slugger” now?
His 162 game average since 2020 is 27 HRs and a .500 slugging percentage. Id consider him more a "power hitter" than a "slugger" because he doesn't JUST hit HRs. More like Acuna or Trout or Ohtani. But I guess it depends how youd define slugger
My dude is Steve Kwan can't relate 😂😂
This is as much about the 3 true outcome and the hitters eye... if a batter can take pitches & work walks, they are going to be good...
Hypothetically billy Hamilton & kyle swarber have the exact same eyes transplanted in. & suddenly billy is taking 5 pitches an AB & all the walks... would you rather have billy or kyle. Bc imma pick billie & his ability to steal 2nd base.. guys like harper still hit more double than they do HR...
So its as much about speedy slap hitter guys, not having the same level of strick zone awareness
I would still rather have a Schwarber bat 6th for more RBI opportunities
Luis Arraez is one of the best lead off hitters in baseball
Analytics are the worst thing to happen to sports than the stock market to capitlism. Sure they both might be just looking at numbers, but no one on the outside likes it and we can all agree they make everything else involved worse. The products are worse and people know its a pig in a dress.
Sabermetrics make everyone play the same. That's why.
Homers, walks and strikeouts.
Homers, walks and strikeouts.
Homers, walks and strikeouts.
I still don't agree with Kyle schwarber leading off. 4 or 5 leading off the second inning would be best. Also Madison wasnt the first to do that Larussa would put the pitcher 8th and teams would put contact guys at clean up in the past like grace batted behind sosa alot
Why isn’t Harper a better option? He has a higher OBP and usually a better wRC+
Cause you don't want your *best* hitter leadoff, its usally your 3rd best. Harper should hit 2nd or 4th. And you dont necessarily need power leadoff, ob% is just really what matters and the power is incidental. If your best hitter also has a lot of power he should hit 4th. (This is based on "The Book on Baseball"
I always thought having the lead off just be the fastest was dumb
Yeah well schwarber make ball go boom
We have Marcus Saiem