Was Adam Dunn’s Defense Really That Bad? | Baseball Bits
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- Опубліковано 25 вер 2024
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Adam Dunn defense. Oft-maligned, but always talked about. The hulking slugger Adam Dunn had a great career thanks to his power and plate discipline, but his defense was poor, which was exacerbated by the fact he played most of his career in the National League before the universal DH.
This video in particular is about 2009 Adam Dunn Nationals. In 2009, Adam Dunn put up -43 Defensive Runs Saved, the fielding metric powered by Sports Info Solutions. It's older than other fielding metrics from Statcast like Outs Above Average and its run equivalent, Fielding Run Value. Because of those -43 DRS, 2009 Adam Dunn ended up with a negative WAR aka Wins Above Replacement.
In this episode of Baseball Bits, a Foolish Baseball production, I conduct a film study using the ol' eye test to determine whether those -43 Defensive Runs Saved are even possible in modern MLB. Sure, he wasn't exactly known for his glove during his days with the Adam Dunn Reds, but -43 is impossible, right? You'll have to watch to find out.
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Defensive Runs Saved FAQ: www.fieldingbi...
Secret Base on Adam Dunn: • Adam Dunn had the weir...
Soundtrack from Maxo:
/ maxoelectronic
maxoisnuts.ban...
If you want to see all the plays and their grades, I've put together a compilation here: ua-cam.com/video/S2AdOP1t9V8/v-deo.html
Weird thing about DRS is that poor defensive players on bad pitching teams will almost by-definition be worse than poor defensive players on good pitching teams. A ball hit towards Adam Dunn is worth negative DRS on average, but because Adam Dunn was on a last-place team the balls hit towards him had more men on base and fewer outs than if he was on a first-place pitching-dominant team. So odd to think that in a sport where offensive value is so minutely calculated independent of other players on the team that defensive value is SO dependent on the kinds of situations your pitcher puts you in.
That's a really great point and something I've never thought about when they calculate DWAR 🤔
When you think about it, its not just pitching where this is the case. Anecdotally I would think the caliber of the other defensive players on your team would attribute to an increased incidence of higher leverage defensive settings and therefore more opportunities for a below average defender to accumulate -rs.
Yes, but conversly a great defender would be more valuable on a team with bad pitching. And that also reflects the reality so I personally am not against that.
Came here looking for this comment. Dunn’s DRS was exaggerated because of severity of his errors being higher than on better teams. I’m curious how his UZR and other context neutral defense metrics compared for that year in question.
His UZR in that season was -36, so less than a win off the DRS calculatation. That put him above replacement on Fangraphs.@@dutchy_mkv5008
I remember once you said you wouldn’t make a video about Dunn if it was just about “haha three true outcomes”. This topic is definitely more unique.
thanks! yeah Secret Base definitely covered the three true outcomes
@@FoolishBaseball you would have done it better.
@@alextrivunovic644no one does Jon Bois better, no offense Foolish
@@benkelly7499 Bailey is Jon Bois biological father.
@@benkelly7499Jon is a better storyteller but he’s more of a well-rounded sports guy. Bailey probably could’ve given a more in-depth look since he’s more knowledgeable about baseball than Jon.
My heart is still racing after Bailey whipped out his sword as a threat.
I know, I was pretty aroused too
I do that to women a lot. They usually look in disgust and ask why it's so small and why it bends upwards
I'm glad I read this comment before watching! 😌
said every person who's made it to a 2nd date with Bailey.
I'll never forget that a baseball writer once projected Adam Dunn to be a better rounded, longer lasting player than Albert Pujols after their debut seasons.
Pujols turned out to be one of the best defensive 1B ever
@@FoolishBaseballYep, him and Keith Hernandez are basically 1A 1B for the position
They’re both pretty well rounded…well if you only look at their bodies
@@FoolishBaseballwas he really that good? I knew from watching him he was good, but not that good. It's infuriating to me how first basemen seem to be almost impossible to have a positive dwar from what I've seen
@@therealmcromano319 nice pfp cool adam
Bailey I genuinely think that these videos are the best sport based videos on the entirety of UA-cam. Thanks for making baseball a little bit more enjoyable.
Thanks!
Also your videos inspired my username
"The best offensive season in MLB history below replacement level"
Holy fk
By a lot too
@@FoolishBaseball Stats are cool
Dante Bichette?
@@Brah42Dante grades poorly in adjusted stats because of Coors and the overall high run scoring environment in his era. That negative war season was only 102 ops+ despite a nice slash line.
WAR is a STUPID stat.... means NOTHING
Adam Dunn was the perfect DH who was cursed to play his entire career in the NL when pitchers still had to hit
I don’t get why AL teams wouldn’t sign him to DH. Seems perfect to me.
@@chip2854ask the white Sox about that…
@@garrettweber6225
He was just dandy for Washington, but after that emergency appendectomy he wasn’t the same (BA-wise) while going to a different league and starting off in an injury-induced slump didn’t help at all. But compared to Joey Gallo (great OF, though) Dunn was Stan Musial.
Oh yess i aint working for another 20 minutes
I already called in sick as soon as this posted. I'm going to savor it all day long.
work can wait
@@FoolishBaseball My wife just went into labor and I told her to stop bothering me with less important things.
@@matthew01234name your kid Bailey
@@FoolishBaseballobviously
I don’t know .. I feel like Foolish actively leveled up in front of our eyes with this vid. Deeply analytical yet action packed with a ton of situation specific footage .. which describes most Foolish vids, but this was next level.
S tier foolish baseball. Fun premise and Adam Dunn footage is entertaining to watch
glad you enjoyed!
Making Adam Dunn play outfield with the original Citi Field dimensions is one of the crueler things I’ve seen in a baseball game.
“Adam Dunn is the true three true outcomes player” - Jon Bois
And yet, all I'm here to talk about is anything but the three true outcomes (balls in play)
He was the first player I viewed that way. Adam Dunn was the first hitter who made me realize that batting average really wasn't that important. At one point he even hit leadoff. Back then it was considered unconscionable to bat a high strikeout, low batting average power hitter leadoff. They did it because he got on base a ton. That's when I started figuring out OBP was more important than batting average and OPS was more important than either of them.
@@matthew01234 If all you do as a hitter is strike out 4 times and hit a home run the 5th at bat, you have an OPS of 1000 and a new season home run record. Probably an MVP award, too. All with a .200 batting average.
Kyle Schwarber: “Buddy you ain’t seen nothin yet”
@@andrewhawkins6754 Oh you would easily win the MVP and it would be unanimous. That wouldn't just be a new home run record. It would more than double the current home run record. That wouldn't just be an MVP year. It would arguably be the best season in baseball history. At the very least you would be guaranteeing your team would never get shutout at all for the entire season. And that's assuming you played with the worst offense in MLB history where no one else on the team ever scored or drove in a run all season long. Assuming your teammates provided any offensive support at all you would probably shatter the RBI record as well. When you hit 162 home runs a season a lot of them aren't just gonna be solo shots.
I’m getting war flashbacks to 2011 Adam Dunn, 54 OPS+ and still getting some starts at 1B for the White Sox
I've been an official scorer in professional baseball for 25 years and I will +1 to Bailey on how ridiculous the error is as a stat, at least as one used to evaluate a player's defensive ability. Some of it has to do with the way the rule is defined, particularly in that mere mental errors and misjudgments are NOT officially errors. Infielder throws to the wrong base? No error. Outfielder breaks the wrong way to a fly ball? No error.
On the other hand, I once charged an error to a player who - under the absolute letter of the law - shouldn't get one. The player was Corey Wimberly, an A's farmhand who was stuck in left on this particular day. High fly ball toward the line, he ran straight to the correct spot, set his feet, then dropped the ball Charlie Brown-style.
However, when determining ordinary effort, the rules require the OS to use the standard of an average player at that position for that level of baseball. Wimberly was one of the fastest players in professional baseball. An average player hoping to snare that ball would have to do so on a full sprint, with the wall and the rolled-up tarp looming in front of him. In other words, that catch would take extraordinary effort for an average left fielder because an average guy isn't fast enough to get there. Wimberly got charged with an E7 because he DID have the speed to get there and thus had his "full range of motion" for making the catch.
Me with Adam Dunn on my strat-o-matic team:
Opponent: I roll a 5-11.
Me: LF(X)..........another single........
Loving this second channel content
HEY
this made me look at the channel name, well done lol
The delivery for “How come good hitter WAR bad and bad hitter WAR good” might just make it one of my favorite individual lines ever said on baseball bits
Aww that little smile at 12:13 after making the nice play is so adorable ❤ That’s right you are nice with it little man
I love this quote: "It's predicated on the fear of making a mistake, not the courage to make a play." A good defender will balance those out.
The "what are you going to do about it now bozo approach" line had me dying.
Sitting on the toilet for the next 18 minutes to watch new Foolish
I'd say that's an acceptable length of time to be on the toilet. Anything more probably excessive.
Celebrate, Don't Denigrate a Player? ✅
Answer a Deeper Question than the Title Asks? ✅
Encourage Deeper Analysis by Generating Curiosity? ✅
Use Stats In an Interesting Way and Show Your Work? ✅
Focus On a Player Who Isn't in the News? ✅
Be a Silly Lil Bailey Baseball Boi and Make Us All Laugh?✅
This was an S tier video.
I don't know if it was intentionally edited like this, but there being footage of Luis Castillo after saying "being able to track a fly ball" is so funny to me as a Mets fan.
ANOTHER BANGER , BAILEY. THANK YOU
no, thank you
Adam Dunn managed to strike fear in the hearts of both his team and the opposing club with his uniquely terrifying offense and defense.
This channel is one of two that got me into baseball after losing interest when I was a child. Back then, I was a nats fan and going to ballgames with my dad was where I first learned of Adam Dunn. Seeing this channel, which is responsible for my current obsession, cover Adam Dunn, the creator of many many fond memories in my earliest years, is a real treat. Thanks bailey, and I can't wait to see more second channel uploads like this one!
You are by far my favorite baseball youtuber.. informative af and funny af at the same time! Thanks for brightening up my day big dawg
thanks!
@@FoolishBaseball for sure dude
5:25 is how Castellanos goes season after season without recording an error
“muscle relaxers go brr”
-Rod Manfred
it's the only way he can tolerate baseball
@@FoolishBaseball I can only imagine that while he's watching the highlights from the games of that day strapped to the lazy boy, Manfred's trying to keep himself from drifting off to sleep from all of the painkillers being pumped into him. I’m surprised he’s not put into either a comatose or vegetative state given how many painkillers are pumped into him every night.
MLB Power Pros Legend, Adam Dunn.
never played it
E contact with A power is truly something
Absolutely loved the video! Always excited to see your new videos pop up in my feed.
I like Bailey and the channel so much. Nothing but love for baseball and his insights are super thoughtful. He’s also funny (sometimes).
i think adam dunn is the most adam dunn-looking guy to ever live
He certainly looks like an Adam Dunn
First time I ever saw Dunn was on TV in the early 2000s. The commentator referred to him by his full name (Adam Troy Dunn) just as Dunn blew a huge bubble with his gum while staring off into the distance. It was the perfect confluence of person and name, to the point that it stayed with me for 20 years. It was like witnessing a Platonic Form.
New dimensions and textures of what to watch for during my next MLB viewing session. Fantastic effort. You can never truly overthink what's happening in front of you.
Adam Dunn is one of my favorite baseball subjects.
This is the earliest I’ve ever been idk what to say.
I love you, funny internet baseball man.
Thank you, internet baseball commenter.
Always love seeing these. It’s like a baseball treat!
As a young kid from Cincinnati during Dunn’s tenure for the reds I vividly remember my dad going absolutely ballistic over Dunn doing pretty much anything, meanwhile he was my favorite player
As a kid from Kentucky who got into baseball with him and Griffey Jr on the team. I’ll never forget going to a baseball game for the first time and him and Jr went back to back.
Is that the Jim Leyland as one of your patreons?
incredible video - very fond memories of Dunn from his playing day
Dunn was awesome.
The whole analysis is kinda brain dumb.
1) WAR and its cousins all kinda stink.
2) no outstanding hitter should be dinged for "bad defense" in an era where DHs make the HOF. That Dunn was either good enough to play the field or his coach was dumb enough to put him there isn't really that meaningful if Ortiz and E Martinez are considered all-time greats and couldn't even get on the field long enough to be viewed the way Dunn is in the video.
Very first thing I thought of when you were explaining how all the numbers work nowadays was - eye test. And literally 10 seconds later , you brought up eye test. Made my day 🍺🍺
I hate the error stat. I hate how if a pitcher makes an error and the runner scores, it is an unearned run EVEN THO THEY EARNED IT!!!
I love you bailey
I just think it's a stupid stat. In every sport players fuck up, but only baseball do they include it as the third most important stat and show it at the end of every inning.
Maybe somebody can enlighten me
@@chrisbeaudoin9818I believe errors being a major stat comes from the extremely low standard of defence in the very early days of baseball. When teams averaged 5 errors a game it made sense to give them more priority, because they would often decide games, but it's mad that we still do it
also automatically no earned runs if you commit an error with 2 outs.
That... makes sense, though? ERA is a PITCHING stat, not a fielding stat or holistic player performance stat.
I gotta thank you Bailey. Without these videos, I would still be relying on fielding percentage to see who’s the best defender in the league. Phillies broadcasts think Nick Castellanos is an amazing defender because he hasn’t recorded an error since 2022 when we all know that’s not the case. Defense is much harder to measure and you’ve done a great job in getting the more obscure info out there.
Glad I could help!
Eye test buddy, if you watch the game you can perfectly tell how good or bad a fielder is. No stats required.
@@theclassygoose6384 just have to find time to watch 2500 games a year.
There was an article in The Athletic last year about how the scorekeepers have been issuing a lot fewer errors in recent years, I wonder why
@@alexparker3277 i never said you need to watch every game, if you know baseball you know how good a fielder is after a couple of games. If you can’t figure it out by then, then you’re not great at the eye test unfortunately.
Thanks for reminding me how much I hate the universal DH. Now I'm mad all over again.
1:48 I know some defensive metrics just "Hate" certain players for whatever reason. But the fact that MATT KEMP in the middle of winning 2 GOLD GLOVES almost had the worst season ever by DRS is wild af😂
I hope we never can actually truly quantify defensive value because we would miss out on such fun shit as this
Matt Kemp really defied the idea that being an all world athlete could make you a good outfield defender.
Your content always puts a smile on my face. 😁
The Rob Manfred calculating DRS was comedy gold
“How come good hitter WAR bad and bad hitter WAR good?!?!” had me dying😂
What about a video about "The Art of Getting Left on Base??"
What’s good my man! @FoolishBaseball
Could u take a look at Carlos Zambrano stats and see if it’s worth a baseball bits.. It’s fascinating his baseball career but on top of that his batting skill!
Thanks again as always
Thanks for the video Bailey! My birthday is today and this is one of the best presents I could have got
Adam Dunn was just rocking and AWP with no armor, helmet or nades!! He is just built different
Great video as always Bailey. This one fascinates me a lot because I worked at Inside Edge for a few years and one part of the job was quantifying defensive play probabilities. I think IE's methods/calculations were different than what BIS does to calculate DRS, but figuring out the catch probabilities was always fascinating to me. Some guys like Dunn make routine plays look difficult and much better fielders can make tough plays look easy. Regardless, figuring out the in-between plays was always the toughest part.
Absolutely loved you picking 30 games to look at it! Sample size is large enough
Honestly, Foolish Runs are way better than any other defensive metric.
Adam Dunn...one of my favorite players because his offensive contributions were offset by his defensive liabilities. YET...I have always wondered...how did he play so many years and never improve? What is the story there? Was he uncoachable? Did he simply not have the physical abilities? And why did teams put up with it? Did they see his offense as something that allowed them to simply accept his liabilities as a defender? Did they think he would get better?
I think it is correct to assume that in an era of universal DH, his career would have looked different--and lasted longer. But even so, would any team keep anyone on a roster with so much defensive liability these days? Perhaps he was a product of his era, but sometimes I wonder what managers and owners are smoking...
Love the video Foolish. However on your own calculation of DRS on the Mike trout ground ball you should have found the difference not on "Bases empty, 1 out" and "Bases empty, no outs", but rather on "Bases empty, 1 out" and "A runner on first, no outs", because you are finding the difference between the expected amount of runs the offense scores in the instance that the SS makes the play and in the instance he doesn't make the play: (P(doesn't make the play)-P(makes the play)) * .5= DRS (using this method).This makes the total DRS for that play (not accounting for the Angels horrendous offensive output) (0.908-0.275) * .5= 0.3165.
Wow! 462 home runs is no joke!
I guess I hadn't realized that he mashed that many homers.
Likely to become the highest non-PED total for players who fail to make the Hall Of Fame, depending on how Carlos Delgado does with the Veterans’ Committee in coming years.
What a beautiful day, always a pleasure to get a fresh bits.
Adam Dunn was the second most impressive batting practice that I’ve ever seen live. I watched him pepper the scoreboard at Shea when he was still a Red.
imagine society today if they just let adam dunn DH for his career.
"You can't put a number on that, I mean I did, but..." hahaha
always love when the second channel gets some love
A new Baseball Bits from Foolish and a Playin' Watchin' Guts from Jomboy, Jake and Joezack. Can't get any better than that on a Wednesday.
I was waiting for a Schwarber joke, but damn, 2:29 made me cackle 😂
That sword convinced me to never question FB.
Just when I thought my day couldn’t get better. Foolish Baseball comes up clutch.
My WPA increases
My heart stopped when you cut to the blue screen with the same color as the blue screen of death. Can't do that to me!
Love the vids. Greetings from The Netherlands.
Baseball Bits always makes me feel better
The song playing at the beginning of the level 5 segment was great
YESSSS!! Time for me to tell an anecdotal story!!!
Big reds fan, went to a game and sat in the front row of left field so I could heckle barry bonds. Ended up heckling Adam Dunn for literally never moving in the outfield. It was on real he never took more than one step towards ball unless it was hit to him. In the 9th inning they brought in Chris denorfia as a defensive replacement. First batter hits a ball into deep short and denorfia runs to back it up and runs back my drunk ass stands up and starts clapping for him in a dead silent stadium. Out of my mouth comes "that's more than Dunn ran the whole game" and the guy started laughing visibly on the field
Jon Bois 🤝 Bailey
Putting
Adam Dunn
in perspective
Adam Dunn is the best 2 tool player in the history of baseball.
Power and Contact. Nothing else.
Jack Wilson was an elite shortstop I don't wanna see that slander
“Kyle Schwarber…-1000” killed me dude
I always grew up with AL teams on TV around me. Whenever I would watch the NL it was like watching MLB jr. How it took them 120 years to adopt the universal DH is one of the great mysteries of mankind.
I mean the egyptians built spaceship pyramids in 5000bc, surely making baseball better was easier than that.
I love your videos bro
the best part of this video was i got to remember jorge cantú and a sweet ball he hit out to adam dunn because i was at that game lmao. i commented that he seemed to let stuff drop in front of him all the time... at the time!
great video as always
The fact that 10 of his 14 seasons were in the NL still baffles me. If any man needed the DH, it was Dunn.
wake up babe Foolish Baseball just uplo....
oh right, I have no "babe" hence being a Foolish Baseball subscriber...
around 12:15 i think you should also have looked at the possibility of runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs, where Dunn bodyblocks the ball and comes up in time to prevent the runner from going to 3rd, but cant reasonably make a play at 1st.
Fangraphs did a fun simulation where they made an entire team of Adam Dunns, and a few other players... He won a gold glove in CF over Dee Gordon
In 2014, I got to watch this very large man play right field at then-AT&T Park. He nearly killed Jordan Danks
that's crazy about orlando cabrera with -29 , i remember him for his defense and he has 124.9 career dWAR somehow.
Bailey you done did it again
The game over always makes me smile
Adam Dunn And Austin Kearns came up through the local low A Dayton Dragons Inaugural season. Watched their very first professional games. Man being 14 was cool. You knew early on they were going to be good. Love ya Big Donkey 🫏
New fear unlocked: Foolish Baseball with a sword
Who would win foolish baseball with a sword or foolish Bailey with a sword
fear me
This brings up another point about why I dislike the universal DH. It's an interesting tradeoff to have a great hitter but poor defender that must play the field in order to bat. The rules rewarded having more complete players that could play every aspect of the game well instead of just allowing players to be locked into one-dimensional roles.
Thank you for this video! I love Adam Dunn, and his career (and specifically, his 2009 season) has always been my #1 reason for questioning the validity of WAR. I do buy into it for the most part, but I refuse to believe Dunn's defense was so bad his career WAR is only 17.9.
That Felix Hernandez "eye test" comment might be one of the most braindead things I've ever read considering he was one of the most disrespected and underrated pitchers of his era due to Pitcher Win/Loss and and other traditional measurements despite being a sabermetric darling
I would've loved to hear about range factor.
yadier molina has a below average (for a catcher) Rangefactor/9inn, but he's usually considered one of the best catchers ever. I wonder why that stat is unkind to him
FINALLY! AN ADAM DUNN BASEBALL BITS! IVE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS SINCE DORKTOWN!
I feel like this is the Quintessential Bailey topic. Someone who’s really amazing at one thing, but bat at others.
11:58 WBC GOAT Shairon Martis sighting 👀
The pride of New Caney, Texas! My hometown high school's greatest ever athlete.
Seeing a Jon Bois video getting mentioned makes my heart full
The other thing is that playing deep all the time means more singles on plays where it's not immediately obvious that a different outfielder playing at normal depth would have made the play.
thoughtful piece as always, Bailey!