Double Sixes Death Game
Вставка
- Опубліковано 28 тра 2024
- Get Vsauce's favorite science and math toys delivered to your door!
www.curiositybox.com/
** LINKS **
de Méré's Problem
mathworld.wolfram.com/deMeresP...
Combinatorial Probability
www.math.umt.edu/steele/STAT34...
Combinatronics and Probability
infolab.stanford.edu/~ullman/f...
***********************************
Vsauce2 Links
Twitter: / vsaucetwo
Facebook: / vsaucetwo
Hosted, Produced, And Edited by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: / kevlieber
Twitter: / kevinlieber
Website: kevinlieber.com
Research And Writing by Matthew Tabor
/ matthewktabor
VFX By Eric Langlay
/ ericlanglay
Huge Thanks Paula Lieber
www.etsy.com/shop/Craftality
Select Music By Jake Chudnow: / jakechudnow
Everytime I play a board game I never can roll double sixes.
But I bet ya as soon as my life’s on the line I instantly roll double sixes.
Sounds like my luck hahah
I'm The Opposite Of You Basically
Same thing here
That is so me,yea guys that's my luck
* uses 420 sided dice *
They didn't say what kind of dice
*Uses 120 sided dice*
'Still rolls double sixes' God Dammit!!
Uses 4 sided dice
*Uses 1 sided dice*
oh wait...
An Otaku
Also, technically it is still a 90% chance to lose
Use a coin
This game is not realistic at all. I don't even have a best friend.
Hmm think about that
You don't need a friend tho
This game is not realistic at all. I don’t even have a *best* friend.
I Was About To Reply R/Wooooosh
“ *SUSPEND REALITY* “
It makes perfect sense if i walk out of a room with a mil i have over 90% to be robbed and murdered
If Kevin is 200IQ, you are 201IQ
@@miggle2784 he has an IQ of 189
SUSPEND REALITY
But isn’t everyone getting 1mil dolls?
How dare you make me learn math by baiting me with luxuries like money and death
The luxury of death? Oof
well, compared to math...
@@ludipoint22 No. Not really. But okay, if you think permanent darkness is better than the beauty of mathematics, than fine.
can't afford to be dead mate
GD MCB_Blazar the beauty lies in the lack of knowledge of life beyond death, or if there even is life beyond death, not the act of death itself. I personally think death is beautiful because it eventually comes for everyone indiscriminately. I take comfort in the fact that I’m not alone in my ignorance
There is another death game that involves 6.
Russian roulette
@@okamizer0387 that- that's not a revolver... oh no....
This guy uses like bots.
You could potentially play Russian roulette with a non-revolver by not looking while you load it (or having someone who is not playing load it) with all blanks... but one. Also have multiple magazines ready, loaded randomly, to simulate the cylinder spin between plays. But... this is to much work for a game where you could potentially die. Forget I said anything... Hah.
Blanks can still kill you if you aim the gun close enough but having multiple magazines would still be a viable option, just have all of them empty except one. But yeah, too much work if you can get your hands on an actual revolver.
If you got a well oiled revolver and you let the drum roll to a stop by itself you should never be shot, simply due to the fact the weight of the bullet will make it so it's always at the bottom.
Plot Twist: The inflation from everyone on Earth winning a million dollars makes my money worthless.
Plot twist from your future. None of us can go anywhere to spend it even if it was worth something! 😁
Democrats: "Um, 'inflation'? What's that?"
@@frikker4704 The classic "shame someone for mentioning politics because it's never relevant even in economics" tactic.
Secondary plot twist, the game goes on for a lot of rounds and half the world dies plunging the world into chaos
@@jamesleviathan8865 Thanos has entered the chat
Why do people keep on disliking his videos(s)? In my opinion his content is great, and I enjoy a great and well written brainteaser. Although he usually recycles ideas and theories coming from old mathematicians, that's actually the point, he wants to revive these amazing theories but he wants to do it in a unique and unboring fashion. I think Kevin's work is marvelous.
Keep up the great work!
fu***** Karen
@@essorath5870 OK, 9-year-old math hater, but why are you even watching this?!?
@Fredrick Emad lol I know 1st graders who were sitting at the edge of the school gate and middle fingering anyone who passes while calling them F-ing b*stards
Okay my problem with his content is that he is stating the obvious mathematics and using his voice and acting to make is more suspicious and interesting.
@@bruhhhhh2768 Damn your really lacking in awareness huh. Just because something is obvious to one person, does not mean it's obvious and or is not interesting to others.
Moral of the Story: Bring weighted dice.
to *d i e i n s t a n t l y*
@@JorgetePanete HAHA
and save everyone if you get there soon enough
This went from cheating, to suicide, to sacrifice real quick.
@@KnekoKcat Y a Y
But I still don't have a friend called Billy
I dont have a friend.
Nyt loppu
SUSPEND REALITY
You don't have a friend called Billy...
any more.. (sniffles)...
Poor Billy.
@@alexphan8493 okay emo kid, settle down
Your perspective is based on you lose/you win. Billys perspective is based on the fact that someone already lost
No its dumb billies perspective is there is a 90% chance you were in the last group. Whether they roll sixes or not. It makes no sense
@@infinite7815 The last round is the one that involves rolling double sixes, regardless of how many rounds were played.
Now, let's assume that the game lasted 5 rounds, though the number of rounds is irrelevant; this can be proven with any number of rounds. First, we're going to calculate how many total people played. Round 1 had 1 player. Round 2 had 10 players(1*10=10). Round 3 had 100 players(1*10*10=100). Round 4 had 1,000 players(1*10*10*10=1,000). And lastly, round 5 had 10,000 players(1*10*10*10*10=10,000). That brings our total to 11,111 players(10,000+1,000+100+10+1=11,111).
Next, we're going to calculate the percentage of players that made up the final round. Percentage is the partial amount (the number of players in the final round), divided by the total amount(the total number of players), and then multiplied by 100. As we saw above, the number of players in the final round was 10,000. If we divide that by the total number of players(11,111) then we get a quotient of 0.900009. Multiplied by 100, we get a percentage of 90.0009%. This means that there is in fact a 90% chance that you were in the final group.
@@kenshinhimura9406 you literally repeated what i said minus the fact i didnt realize the game went on infinitely until 6's were rolled.
@@infinite7815 ah my mistake, I misunderstood your comment then. I meant no insult.
@@kenshinhimura9406 no problem at all! didn't feel insulted was just confused hehe
kevin: SUSPEND REALITY
also kevin: in the double dice game, reality doesn’t change
That crystal skull is Billy, isn't it, Kevin?
Oh dear god. Hamlet!!!
Billy is the one who was dead all along...
@8R4ND0N 3LL1077 CRU23L1 what?
@8R4ND0N 3LL1077 CRU23L1 Meh... Have you read the Midnight Crew webcomic? The main characters are kind of named after those sort of things like Boxcar. Or is it a different webcomic? I dunno.
Poor Billy
*R.I.P. in Peace*
"How does this makes sense?"
"SUSPEND REALITY"
It's a Vsauce video, you probably should have made that assumption from the start.
Haha - whenever I’m making no sense in a conversation I’m now just going to say “SUSPEND REALITY, THEN IT WILL ALL MAKE SENSE” and just walk away. Sorted.
"Okay roll the dice."
"Hehe, little do you know, I have a dexterity +5!" *rolls double sixes, but the dice magically reroll into a seventeen*
"What the!?"
YES! someone who knows about DnD!!!!!!!!!!!
Ethan Fung i was reading the essentials kit just now! (=
Yeah, but you still rolled double sixes. Roll for a new character bud.
20 sided dice
@@shadowflame492 well yes but actually no. I play DnD but there are many other games with similar rules
The only thing I'm debating here about Billy's perspective of the game is that the 90% probability is actually a conditional probability. That means it is the probability that you died *given* that you managed to play the game and was actually put in one of those rounds from Round 1 to Round n (where n is the last round where Double 6s were rolled).
This eliminates all the posibilities that you were meant to be placed in a round higher than Round n, and thus not being able to play the game at all as the game had already ended.
So in conclusion if you do choose to sign up to play this game, there is a very high chance (Practically 100% certainty) that you won't even get to play the game at all, as you will almost certainly be meant to be placed in a round from Round N to Round Infinity, as this game has infinite players
Jeez
The only problem with that is that your friend in this hypothetical knows that you did in fact play the game. Therefore, the condition has been met.
Yep, that is correct if the friend knows you played the game, and that's after the game has ended. But before the game starts, if you choose to sign up to play the game there is practically 100% chance you won't be one of those players in the game, as this game allows infinite players.
But that 2.8% probability is also conditioned on you actually participating in the game.
The 97.2% chance to survive is also conditioned on your playing the game. If it wasn't, you would have a 100% chance to survive.
The core of the issue is that the friend assumes that the game always runs for exactly N rounds, and then you are randomly placed into the people of those rounds. In this case, you would have a 90% chance of being placed in the round where everybody dies. However, this is not an accurate reflection of the actual game - since you have a 97.2% chance of surviving, you only have a 2.8% chance of being placed into the round where everybody dies.
This fault can be emphasized when you realize you can apply Bob's logic while the game is ongoing. In a given round you know that you have a 97.2% chance of surviving. However, you also know that by the end of the game, 90% of the people playing will be dead, which suggests only a 10% chance of surviving, which is clearly incorrect.
If I were in that room with my best friend Billy, I would purposely roll 2 6’s because he outbid me on that $100 auction.
Billy is more like a frenemy.
I got that reference!
thanks for telling me how you would treet .
No-one likes Billy.
focking Billy
"Hey bro, I just played this sick dice game!" "Ehhhhh. You're probably dead."
underrated comment xdd
His bro be like:
"I just played THAT dice game"
"Wait you mean.. THAT dice game?"
"Yup"
...
"Exorcizamus te, omnis immundus spiritus, omnis satanica potestas, omnis incursio infernalis adversarii, omnis legio, omnis congregatio et secta Diabolica. Ergo Draco maledicte, ecclesiam tuam secura facias libertate servire. Te rogamus, audi nos."
Uh ki
300th like nice
Naniii?!
Mr beast should do this, if someone rolls a pair of dice and doesn't get a pair they get 10 dollars and they can throw again for more money but if they roll doubles they don't get any of the money.
DeltaSJL 10 dollars....? You get doubles 1/6 of the time
@@KalemStLouis well that's why I said 10 dollars and not 100 lol
There are doubling down and doubling up strategies in gambling that mimic this. They are called martingale and anti-martingale strategies. They tr to take advantage of the latter 90% bet that he discussed, but with a 2:1 leverage instead of 10:1. They also always inevitably fail in the presence of edge without a high % payout scenario.
Idk man sounds pretty stale to me I say we up the wager and you stabbed could be fatal might be flesh wound hart to tell just a good thrust..for the content I cant wait
1 dollar, so that mr beast would actually do it.
Well, from my DND experience, I'm safe. The real danger is if I had to roll double ones.
Rip
Death by Boxcars at Midnight sounds like a good pulp crime novel.
@@stevenation4249 yessssss
@@stevenation4249 it does. Sounds like old P!ATD.
Death by Boxcars Midnight is a sick band name.
Coincidentally, that's the name of my first band....
1 million dollars would mean nothing after all the inflation.
a game that requires more people then we have on earth, in which every single person gets 1million dollars.
What could go wrong? I certainly don't see how inflation could be a factor in this ;D
r/whooooosh
considering the population is infinite, 1 million people getting $1,000,000 is negligible
What is with the sudden trend of people doing some form of "woosh" in a completely incorrect context? Do people just not realize it's suppose to reference when someone doesn't get a joke? Or is doing it out of context part of the joke? I'm betting on the former.
Inflation is the key for everything.
One thing is the probability you will survive the game, given that you are going to play it
versus
The other thing is the probability you have survived the game, given that it has ended and you participated in it
You are answering two different probabilities, that's how they are different!
Excellent summary!
Kevin: Plays this game and keeps winning.
Inflation: Allow me to introduce myself.
if the population is infinite, then, just a few billions people earning millions of dollar won't change anything.
This gives *die* a whole different meaning.
Underrated comment
oh
Nice! 👍
i literally died lmao
Good one, mate
Me: *rolls 1 and 1*
Person: ok, sir, collect your mil-
Me: *flips both dice to six side*
Person: sir-SIR!
Plot twist: First person rolls double six.
Game Casualty count:1
But that's still possible
"You might think that after 18 rounds, there will be a 50/50 chance of rolling double sixes, right?"
Vsauce2: *"Well yes, but actually no"*
I was expecting
" *WRONG* "
yet you'd think that if it was 50-50 at 27 that you could split thousands of throws into groups of fifty-four and there would be one 6-6 in either half of each group more often than not. Yes, but no. It's just the way our minds try to comprehend things and simplify complex mathematical principles.
Hyperinflation awaits the winners though
Not if a winner convinces the other winners to play another death game against each other.
just exchange your dollars for something else like euro
Solution: Communism
@@Andeloine_is_not_a_communist communism is always the solution
Agreed
Hmm... playing this game is a tough call because I hate rolling dice but I do wish to die instantly.
Same
Don’t worry, you could just volunteer to be in the group of participants. Only one out of each group has to roll.
oOf
0 Subscribers ,
Glad you finally made an episode on combinational probability, since you actually had several math issues when calculating coin flips. Granted the theories, paradoxes, and games talked about all still hold true with the proper math, so that's good at least. Just wanted to give you a heads up, love your content
Can't wait to use this as D&D challenge. Thanks for the inspiration, Kevin.
Douglas Skinner Lemme know how you intend to turn this into a challenge! Sounds cool!
Man, i wish the other vsauce boys were as active as you...
Reax Jake takes suuuper long with his videos and he explained why they take so long. Michael does the same, buuut he also deals with his other shows and stuff.
well, I think thats why the other vsauce boys posts so much better videos than Kevin
check DONG they've been active on there
Mount better yeah, but Kevin’s videos are also interesting - i like all three a lot
Jake (vsause3) has also been making a movie the past 5 months releasing the 10th this month
Can you upload a tutorial on how to play *without* a best-friend named billy?
sorry, billy is mandatory
But that's impossible. You need a friend named Billy. Not a random stranger named Billy. Not a friend named David. A FRIEND named BILLY.
hi, 3 months later and you still win the intertent
In MY minds game, MY friend is either a past-his-prime comic named Andrew Clay, and/or an ill-tempered goat named William. William has consumed Andrew, fully, on more than 2.7 occasions. Okay, 3. It was three occasions.
been on a streak of 4 or so videos from this dude and man I do feel close to billy, he such a nice guy
This is a message for every person trying to hit double sixes on monopoly.
Kevin you are the only one keeping vsauce alive
Jake is releasing a super long video on october 10th
Mhd. Yousef Attar when’d micheal gonna upload
Yes and he does a great job. Im quite pleased with the direction he took lately.
Well, there's still D.O.N.G
Dude you gotta get into the D.O.N.G, there's always things to Do Online Now Guys.
I learned about Combinatorial Probability while researching how many runs of Stratholme it would take me on average to get Rivendare's Deathcharger in World Of Warcraft.
~125 Strat runs. That was a sweet mount.
And how many? Was it 125?
Oh wow, this is a well timed comment. I literally just reinstalled WoW a couple nights ago to play BfA.
I actually got it on my first try and pissed my friend who had already played it dozens of times
@hawks Plus Seb Dude lmao what did it come out to,you ever get one? I got one once xd.
I don't get it either way I win . . .
deep
Saame
mood
Lmaooo
@@stuff2328 yvbj jkjn
Me: How hard could this be? A high chance to survi-
*Gets double sixes*
But how much does "surviving", weigh?
About $1,000,000.
About 2 lbs.
Lewex You’d probably win about 25 rounds, then there would be around a half chance of dying. So 25 million dollars
Somewhere around 4 m²
“But how much does weigh weigh?”
KSAUCE, VEVIN HERE
*wait*
Msauce, Vichael here
Jsause, Vake here
AtupidSauce, Sll of you here
@@jarek5443 Asauce, Stupidall of you here*
r/wooosh?
The true reason why the probability seems different is because you’re measuring two different things. The high likely hood of not dying from your perspective is the measure of how likely it is for your one role to go double 6’s, but the 90% chance of you being killed by the perspective of the friend is measuring how likely it is that you’re the one in the larger population of the players, and this probability difference is also largely arising from the lack of information the friend has, not knowing which group you were in when the game has ended.
Best friend
I have never had one of those
I would play, it's a win-win situation anyway
and you can have a little fun before you go.
I can see sadness in your words. lol
Dark
On the bright side, with that much millions flowing around, the currency will be worth less than toilet papers.
1:55 I think you mean permutations, since the order matters. eg you count 1 then 3 as a separate case from 3 then 1.
"Combination" would mean that 1 then 3 is the same as 3 then 1 so you wouldn't count it twice.
NERD
Hey Lyric! What’s up?
I think he did it for the people that didn't know the difference between permutations and combinations, while it is scientifically accurate to say permutations it would confuse the people that do not know what that is, and for the rest of us we can understand what he meant pretty clearly. This is just my opinion, if you have a different one please lmk.
He makes this same mistake in other videos as well
@@user-nx6wi6eh9v It's better to use the right word so people can learn it, then avoid it for something simpler and dumb down the point of matter. More concise words means more accuracy and and a more educated audience.
Banging out great videos mate well done
I can really imagine a Black Mirror-style future where they grow mass amounts of people in test tubes and force them to play 66DG - Double Sixes Death Game.
Why. There's no reason to do that. Each Black Mirror narrative is based on a technology which would supposedly improve the world but actually creates a dystopia.
@@TheRABIDdude *overpopulation*
Joshadow OP said growing people in test tubes specifically for it. That aside, you still wouldn't use this to tackle overpopulation because the number of people killed varies massively due to chance alone. You would most likely extinctify the human race in just one game.
@@TheRABIDdude no because no matter what a small chance survives
Joshadow Yeah but overpopulation is a simple numbers problem. Say you have 12 billion people on a planet which can only sustain 9 billion. You obviously need to kill 3 billion. So why use a game which randomly chooses anywhere between a few thousand and hundreds of billions of victims.
Rolls double six first round...
Aka my luck
It took me 92 times to roll double sixes
Ayyy u good at monopoly that's a thing
My friend refuses to believe in combinatorial probability no matter how many times I explain it.
Does he believe in dice gnomes?
@@Zombiesbum you're contradicting yourself. If chances for getting to n round are low that would mean chances for hitting double 6 are somewhat significant.
The dice have no memory.
It’s 1/36 every time you roll.
It’s possible to roll double sixes every time, or none at all... ever.
It won’t ever attempt to “right” statistical anomalies.
@Sharon is there: No, because the probability to get to round 94783 without rolling double 6 is miniscule, but the dice don't know if you are on round 1 or whatever, still 1/36 chance for any given roll
Just explain that if you roll a dice 5 times without getting a 6, then according to their logic, the 6th roll guarantees a 6. That makes them realize that this isn't how it actually works.
Am I the only one who heard a Grindr notification go off @ 1:34 in the video? 😅😂
1:25 ...**SUSPEND REALITY**
*grabs a noose*
All I see is a huge inflation problem
Fix it with Communism.
We just send people like you to Gulag, that fixes everything.
You can't steal grain if there's no food.
found the monetarist
You see an inflation problem. I see an extinction event
I still wonder where the hell that Billy guy is, like, he went from 100$ dollars to death dices, like dude had good decision
Me: *buys triangle dices that have 5 sides*
Also me: I am inevitable
"And may the odds be ever in your favor"
Hey you wanna play the dice death game?
Nah, I'm gonna play some video games instead and chill. You have fun though...
No one plays dungeon dice monsters
“Is this why I have no friends...😢...”
“Is this why I have no friends...😢...”
Meh, as long as it's painless I'd do it for $1 billion.
But you will get $1billion dollars!😆
If you die instantly, it is kind of a win-win situation :)
How?????
How?
Ayse Tetik @Squiddles because if you win then you get a million dollars, but if you lose you’ll never know because you instantly cease to exist
welp,ppl missed the jokes lol
A quick tip for finding any number quickly on a standard 6-sided die: Each pair of opposite sides adds up to 7, so if you're looking for the 4, you know it's directly opposite the 3.
"What was that?"
"Death"
"Of what kind?"
*"Instant"*
ua-cam.com/video/SsYaiJgtMSQ/v-deo.html
Isn't this just because "Billy" has less information than you?
He does not know which round you played in, so his calculations must be based on the entire game including billions of people even if you were only one of 10 people playing in a round.
Hope that makes sense :)
If he knows you DID play and he knows the game is over, it doesn't mater how many rounds were played.
After the game ends in any round, around 90% of people that played, died. Since he doesn't know in which round you where in, he just hast to hope you were in the first 10%.
It's not so much that he has less information, it's that he has different information because the game is already complete.
It's actually because he has more information. He knows you played.
VollderFred, not true. It does matter what round the game ends in. If he knows the game ended round 1, then he knows you are 100% dead ;)
No, it’s because he assumes that you will actually be chosen to roll. About an infinite amount of people wont be chosen.
It gets easier to understand once you realize these percentages are from different groups. One has to do with the dice, the other with the total number of players.
Great video, btw, I love these math problems.
5:20 for anyone that was like “how?” Here, it was because Billy looks at the rounds and people in Total and if he sees how many people died then that is the 90% of all the players. Then he concludes that your chance at death is 90%. You, in this game, are looking at one round and in that single round there was only a possability of dying 2,8% of the time. Billy doesnt have to know the rules or probability of You dying to know that the last round was 90% of all people. Even if the last round was enourmous.
Right. Or put another way, if the game will go N rounds and you have an equal chance at being in any given round, it can seem like your chances of dying are only 1/N. However, if your chance of being in a given round is proportional to the number of people in the room on that round, then it is increasingly likely that you'll be in a later group of 10M, 100M or 1B people.
The odds are easier to understand if you think about your 10 best friends playing a blind dart game with multiple boards. If each board's diameter is 10x its next smaller cousin and your friends throw a dart blindly, they are much more likely to land on the 100 meter wide board than the 10cm wide board. Smaller is better because it means you're in an earlier round.
Why does it seem like everyone missed the point that it's an ongoing game, & players would need to pass round 1 (solo) to get to round two (10), where as by round 3, if you haven't rolled & moved on early, it's extremely probable that one of the 99 others gets u killed?
The music is the mvp here thank you for the amazing video
"You might think that the game could be played for 18 rounds, before there was a 50/50 chance of rolling doubles sixes..." well, no, and there's also not a 50/50 chance of me rolling double sixes after not having rolled doubles sixes 25 times (although that's not what you said, it is implied by proposing the premise there might be a 50/50 chance of rolling double sixes after not having rolled double sixes 18 times), because past events don't influence the chance of future events. Wording is important, as it has the potential of misleading people into believing faulty assumptions. The probability of rolling double sixes on the 26th roll is 2.7% and it has been 2.7% each of the 25 times before. The 50% is the probability of having rolled a double six after (!) having rolled 25 times. The key here, is that it is not predictive, but merely descriptive.
You could ask "What is the probability of me rolling a double six if I roll 25 times?" and the answer would be 50%. But if you ask "I have rolled 25 times and never rolled a double six. What is the probability of me rolling a double six on the 26th roll?", then the answer would be 2.7%.
Disclaimer: I didn't check the probabilities. I just believed your math about those would be correct. It's just the interpretation that bugs me.
Shame that this is such an underrated comment
I totally agree with this. It really bugged me watching this and knowing he was misrepresenting the logic.
This is very similar to a birthday problem/paradox.
THANK YOU!
The first concept you touch on is called the "gambler's fallacy", because it is common for people to fallaciously think that, e.g. after flipping a coin and it landing on heads, it is more likely that the next flip will result in tails, and for gamblers to make bad decisions based on this false assumption.
The concept that the video attempts to describe, and which you clarify, is described by the so-called "geometric probability distribution".
The increased odds come from the increased number of players, and your life is on the line with each person’s roll.
There's no contradiction here, you're calculating your odds of survival going into the game, Billy is calculating your odds of dying coming out of the game. Those are two fundamentally different questions.
Similar problem: let's say your odds of winning the lottery are about 1 in 15 million. Billy knows you play every week and hears that there has been a winner but your country only has 10 million inhabitants and let's say half of them play. So he calculates that the odds that YOU are the winner are 1 in 5 million.
Finally someone said it right
You're correct that there's no contradiction here, but you're wrong that you, as the player of the game, have the correct perspective. Going into the game, you have a 90% chance of being placed into the final round. You never actually have a 98% chance of living. It's because they got infinity involved that this happens. Basically, going into the game you have to look at the results of the game, making Billy correct.
At 2:33, when he said right, i thought he would do the “Right? WRONG!” but he didn’t. Anticlimactic 😂
At the time when the video got to 4:39 I grabbed my dices rowled them once and I got gouble 6.
And I realized that even if this game was possible I will commit rowling the dices.
This reminds me of the "doomsday argument" in that it basically hinges on assuming reality's equivalent to an intentionally awkward & inconsistent description of things
gambler's paradox: previous outcomes don't affect later outcomes. each group has a 97.2% chance of success.
You're right but irrelevant
Cheval Darsaut it isnt irrelevant
That is what i thought the gamblers fallicy applies here
@@stxnw It is only relevant to you, but not to your friend Billy. You are looking at the current round only, your friend Billy is looking at the entire game as a whole. That's the crux of the riddle - it is why your chance of success is 97.2%, but to Billy you have a 90% chance of being dead.
Yes but the game will end at some point, and the final group makes up ~90% of the people
You also have a very good chance you won’t get to play in the first place
3:54 Kevin became German
monopoly has taught me to roll double 6s all the time so id be the reason of genocide
*_Suspend Reality_*
Don't worry, I've done it all my life.
Made me laugh. Thanks
im gonna have to reject your reality and substitute my own
:)
This guy is teaching me more math in a 6 minute videos than my math teacher in a year
Wooooow. I always get amazed by his videos
So after watching this video,
I went to my room, took 2 dices and rolled 6&6 at the first attempt...
After pretending to be dying for a while -
I am now here writing this comment.
Have a good day everybody ;)
nice
Lul
you are prob trolling.... but you inspired me to try, and I just rolled 2 sixes.... RIP
r/thathappned
Jesus clearly needs you up there
I’d play the game to hopefully get that 2.8%
I love death jokes
@@williamhenley8593 They never get old
FightingFights neither will I, hopefully
Plot twist/ the first person immediately lands a double six and dies
Why did I sub you... All your doing is explaining cool things and placing TNT and Redstone Blocks in my head
It's always "Kevin here". When will it be "Michael here"? Got nothing against Kevin, just haven't seen Michael's beard for a long time.
Probably became that crystal skull while making this video
i always preferred "Vsauce! I'm Jake."
You see, that's where the trouble began.
That beard...
That damned beard...
We see his DONG every once in a while, though.
Knowing him, he probably trimmed it and doesnt want to make a video till it grows back
jokes on you i dont have friends
gabe you are not alone, wait...
gabe same here let's be friends for that lol
All around me are familiar faces...
r/wooosh
Same.
Plot twist, the host of the game maliciously loaded the dice so the player would always roll double sixes.
This is the last think I watch before I sleep, so I can ponder this riddle in my dreams
The probability that I love Vsauce2 is 100%.
Or is it?
But what is Love?
maybe, maybe not
@@lutyanoalves444 and how much does it weight...
*music starts*
I've been reading a manga lately called Liar Game that features people playing a bunch of these sorts of games that Kevin has been covering lately. It's get psychological/cat-and-mouse-game kind of series if anyone really likes these sorts of games and wants to see more.
Also 'no game no life' manga n anime is awosum...
That ending though...
You should check out Kaiji as well. Same game theory like scenarios and is awesome
The issue here is that you're both looking at different parts of the game. You're looking at a game that's already in progress, and only that current round. Your friend is looking at the game as a whole, after it has ended.
simple:
Just roll one of the dices so that only 4 faces can end up on top and 6 isn't one of the 4 faces
This is simply false. I and Billy describe different events. I say that P(a specific player survives) = 92%, while Billy says that P(a randomly chosen player is dead) = 90%
They are both talking about the probability that you are alive, to the main person they see a 97.2% chance as that's the chance of the dice roll being successful. Now what bill sees is that eventually the game has to end, it can't go on forever, and when it finally does end, ~90% of the total people who played the game would be dead as every next room is a factor of 10 higher than the previous. So he looks at that and says you have a 90% chance of death because it will inevitably fail and you have a 90% chance to be in that group.
Wasn't this a world with infinite people though? Because if that is the case, then your chance of being in that fatal group is 0%
Not quite, at least the way I see it.
Billy is looking at a specific player too, his friend, but he has a different perspective on the same equation, meaning he does not have the information that you have, which is that you lived or did not. Bit of a Schrodinger's Cat scenario, but without the quantum theory. The cat knows 100% if it's alive or dead, but Schrodinger does not, which makes his *probability* different, but not the equation. Just the probability changes, reality is still the same in that there is a cat in a box with poison in it.
+TheArrowOfDestiny : It's on the condition that you're one of the people who got to play. Despite an infinite pool to pull from, there's a finite number of people playing the game, since it ends as soon as we roll two sixes.
He's not claiming that you and Billy are describing the same events.
Wow, I'm early. Better make a joke. . .
Micheal posting a video to Vsauce
Ethanerd 😭😭 I miss him
luka subari same. . . same ;(
Ethanerd What’s he doing nowadays?
@@1foru2forme84 DONG
Se7en D3ys and a Show on YT behind a paywall
0:16 Casino Dice...
Bro if 10 people all lived and walked out the room ,with each having 1 mil I’ll make them not alive.
Billy needs to find a new hobby besides challenging me to all these games.
*ohboy this game seems fun, where do i sign up for getting killed?*
Dices depend on odds. And odds don't have memory. So your odds will always be 1/36. No matter how many times you roll.
Its not as much a matter of inside vs. outside perspective but actually just whether we have the knowledge that the game has already concluded.
If I asked Billie before going into the game, we would agree on the 35/36 survival probability.
Conversely, if they rolled the dice first until double sixes, made a ticket for every person that would have participated, and then offered me random ticket (and its associated result), I would agree on the 90% death chance.
i wanna play, its a win win. either a million or i get to die.
I might be understanding incorrectly, but this feels like a false paradox. (I know all paradoxes are false, but this one especially.)
You and your friend are starting from fundamentally different premises. You know that you'll be participating in a random round. Since everyone in a given round has a 97% chance of living, you know that you have a 97% chance of winning.
Your friend, on the other hand, only knows that you were a random participant. That's really different from knowing that you were in a random round, since there are many more people in the last round than in every other round, and you're most likely to be a participant from the last round. If you only knew that you were a random participant in the overall game, you would come to the same conclusion as your friend.
So I think the paradox is really just two completely separate problems, stated in a similar way. They're about the same situation, but it's definitely not surprising that you end up with different probabilities. The only confusing part seems to be the problem statement.
Easy fix: everybody potentially participating is drugged asleep. It is revealed to you afterwards that you participated. That way, neither you nor your friend know anything the other does not.
Also not every paradox are "false". "This is a lie" literally can't be true nor false. Some paradox points to a flawed axiom.
It's not only perspective, it is also the fact that Billy knows the game is finished.
Modelled this in Excel, double sixes at round 30, 1.11*10^28 survived 1*10^29 dead. 11.1% chance you're still alive.
Actually (10^28 - 1) / 9 survive, comes to around 10%
@@AA-100 Yeah, I forgot to total the number of people. It's easy to see in a small example. Double six on round 3 gives you 11 survived and 100 dead and I looked at that and went oh that's 11%, but 11 is only 10% of 110 which is what I should have used.