Found your page looking for some solid analysis of TLT. I bought a large chunk of TLT about 18 Months ago thinking recession was imminent, my thesis hasn't change much, but I'm wondering if I should trim that position or add to it on dips. Looking forward to hearing more.
If investors believe recession is coming, bonds and stocks become negatively correlated. So I think of it as insurance that pays you to wait. But yes, there's nothing wrong with trimming positions, especially if there are screaming buys elsewhere. Thanks go for the donation!
TLT is going much higher lol. It's not a stock; it directly tracks the price of long-term bonds. In a recessionary environment yields go down, which means TLT will go up.
Even if we get multiple rate cuts, that will mostly just affect the shorter term rates; TLT may not see much upside if the yield curve uninverts because long term rates are still significantly lower than short term rates right now. We could get to the low-100s by year end but 120 is a huge ask if there isn't a full blown recession
Yes, the rate cuts themselves don't cause TLT to rise, but the factors causing those rate cuts can see long term rates drop towards 3% (e.g. inflation 2%, economic slowdown).
Thank you for the informative video. TLT price on September 18, 2007 (day before the rate cut) was 90$. How can it be compared to today’s price of $96? The value of money has changed in so many years, but I would think that TLT today should be a lot higher considering that the rate cut coming soon.
Just to sum up. The fed is expected to cut 8 times until July 2025. So if that happens then tlt won't do much because the market has already priced it in.
Yeah, the rate cut story is already in. It's going to be the massive drop in YoY inflation, election, Ukraine, something that is somewhat shocking that will spice up the market. Thanks for coming!
I think the response to seeing inflation drop to 2% YoY is going to be very positive, we also have the election which is unknown. Recession is not priced in either. Short answer: some.
30 Year U.S. Treasury Rate Forecast 30 Year U.S. Treasury Rates Forecast Values 30 Year Maturity. Percent per Year. Average of Month. Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error 0 Jul 2024 4.46 ±0.00 1 Aug 2024 4.14 ±0.078 2 Sep 2024 4.19 ±0.097 3 Oct 2024 3.93 ±0.11 4 Nov 2024 3.64 ±0.12 5 Dec 2024 3.50 ±0.12 6 Jan 2025 3.45 ±0.13 7 Feb 2025 3.31 ±0.13 8 Mar 2025 2.63
only channel which covers TLT so well with analysis. Love from Canada
Thank you for the kind words!
Found your page looking for some solid analysis of TLT. I bought a large chunk of TLT about 18 Months ago thinking recession was imminent, my thesis hasn't change much, but I'm wondering if I should trim that position or add to it on dips. Looking forward to hearing more.
If investors believe recession is coming, bonds and stocks become negatively correlated. So I think of it as insurance that pays you to wait. But yes, there's nothing wrong with trimming positions, especially if there are screaming buys elsewhere. Thanks go for the donation!
just found TMF and TLT, looking to hold for current / upcoming volatile period - keep these videos up (from melbourne)
Good luck out there brother, there's going to be some volatility in the next 12 months 💪
TLT is going much higher lol. It's not a stock; it directly tracks the price of long-term bonds. In a recessionary environment yields go down, which means TLT will go up.
As long as recession comes... We will find out soon!
Thanks!
Even if we get multiple rate cuts, that will mostly just affect the shorter term rates; TLT may not see much upside if the yield curve uninverts because long term rates are still significantly lower than short term rates right now. We could get to the low-100s by year end but 120 is a huge ask if there isn't a full blown recession
Yes, the rate cuts themselves don't cause TLT to rise, but the factors causing those rate cuts can see long term rates drop towards 3% (e.g. inflation 2%, economic slowdown).
Thank you for the informative video. TLT price on September 18, 2007 (day before the rate cut) was 90$. How can it be compared to today’s price of $96? The value of money has changed in so many years, but I would think that TLT today should be a lot higher considering that the rate cut coming soon.
If we see that inflation number near 2% by November, should be like rocket fuel ⛽️ 😎
Great video and so grateful we can go back and view it if we’re not available during live stream.
Thanks for dropping by!
Just to sum up. The fed is expected to cut 8 times until July 2025. So if that happens then tlt won't do much because the market has already priced it in.
Yeah, the rate cut story is already in. It's going to be the massive drop in YoY inflation, election, Ukraine, something that is somewhat shocking that will spice up the market. Thanks for coming!
Great content. Keep up the good work!
Appreciate it!
Thanks
No worries!
So basically it's not a good idea to buy TLT right now since everything is priced in?
I think the response to seeing inflation drop to 2% YoY is going to be very positive, we also have the election which is unknown. Recession is not priced in either. Short answer: some.
@@bullishbounce Thank you so much!! ☺ Love your market analysis!
30 Year U.S. Treasury Rate Forecast
30 Year U.S. Treasury Rates Forecast Values
30 Year Maturity. Percent per Year. Average of Month.
Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error
0 Jul 2024 4.46 ±0.00
1 Aug 2024 4.14 ±0.078
2 Sep 2024 4.19 ±0.097
3 Oct 2024 3.93 ±0.11
4 Nov 2024 3.64 ±0.12
5 Dec 2024 3.50 ±0.12
6 Jan 2025 3.45 ±0.13
7 Feb 2025 3.31 ±0.13
8 Mar 2025 2.63
TLT 🥳
This guy is really hard to understand
I'll try to be more clear in the future!