Is this a good time to buy TLT, the long term bond index ETF?
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- Опубліковано 25 вер 2024
- Bond funds go up when interest rates fall. The Federal Reserve is expected to drop rates a couple of times this year. Bond ETFs such as TLT should perform well when it happens. Is getting in early a good idea? Here are my thoughts.
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Excellent analysis! To limit downside risk I'm thinking of entering a LEAP call diagonal with long ATM and selling weekly shorts at 1 SD above. Should do well if we get more sideways chop.
Go for it. 👍The 2025 calls are not expensive considering the upside you could potentially get.
I just got into TLT today but man that stop loss. I still think you're right in the long term.
Great analysis and insight! I just started investing TLT and some portion of TMF and this video would be great reference for me buying them. It may take time to actually get profit to some degree but it might be safe choice when weakening economy is expected.
Any update yet? I just entered this position last week
Awesome video! Loved your analysis and made similar conclusions myself. Have been scaling into TLT and also VGLT myself. I was wondering what your thoughts are between two?
Glad I saw this! Ty
Np. Glad you found it helpful. 🙂
Nice video, what a discovery,
Thanks!
It's better to be a bit early than too late. 😀 Thanks for the comment.
Question... while I get the technical analysis, we all know that rates are going to be cut by at least 1% within a year time frame... so why would you not start scaling large into TLT at this point? There is little to no chance of the rates going up or staying where they are, especially with people calling for emergency rate cuts. Is this not as sure a bet as anything to literally get 20-40% returns within a year?
While there's little chance for rates to remain high right now, we have to remember that traders push back and pull forward rate cut expectations all the time.
In January the market was expecting rates to be cut 1.25% in total by the end of 2024.
Some economists recommended to go long TLT since rates were expected to drop quite a bit.
But by April, the market lowered their expectation to just a single 0.25% cut by year end.
During these 3 months TLT lost 10% in value.
Investors are not only asking whether TLT will go up, as it most certainly will.
They're also asking is there a cheaper price they can buy it at, and what other investment might also go up.
You have to ask what's your opportunity cost, especially if you're wrong.
Scaling into TLT right now is probably the highest conviction trade for many investors.
And you will probably get 20 to 40% return from it by this time next year, like you mentioned.
But since there are no guarantees, what percentage of your portfolio do you want to put into it? Everyone should have their own answer.
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog Appreciate the detailed answer! You make a good point on the "can you get it cheaper" as definitely no need to take a 10% haircut if not needed. I feel September is almost a must rate cut given the poor job reports as that is one of two things the Fed is responsible for. I am basically 80% cash at the moment but going to deploy into long term bonds and the like probably in the realm of 30-40%, 10-15% in ETF's tracking the markets, and the rest the rest deployed into opportunistic buys on good companies that will just fall with the market.
Keep up the great work, just stumbled upon you and love your videos!
Can you do more analysis video on combined couple etf together for long term investment
Thank you
Thank you
What u think? Fed rate cut today. My friend recommended me this for now along with veqt
My guess is the Fed will hold its target rate today and the first cut will be at the next meeting in September.
VEQT can complement TLT in a balanced portfolio since one is equity and the other is fixed income.
Can you keep this updated? I likeni vesting just I'm never confident when to go on and out
@@wideback4553 Sure thing. I'll post an update in a couple of months.
Did you do the update?I could not find it. Is now a good time to buy with it being around $99? Also do you think its good idea to pair it with TLTW?
Bought my 700 units of TLT in April for less than 88 😂 Plan to sell them soon for profit
Late to the party. Tlt and Tmf exited Breakdown weeks ago attained the 50, 200 day and Golden Cross. Now you want to buy??
Better late than never. 😉
Nope 😂 I made 11% last year (Plan to make another 10%-15% this year)
@@georgelienI chose TMF and crushed it!!
Revisiting this...how are feeling now on tlt?
Is this still a go?
Longer term, I think TLT will perform well.
We got a couple of negative economic news today with manufacturing and jobless claims being worse than expected.
As described in the video, a slowing economy tends to favor long term bond funds as the market anticipates lower interest rates.
That's why the SPY stock index ETF is down while TLT is up today. I would expect to see more days like this in the upcoming months.
“Fed cut” mainly affect T-bills and T-notes 😂 TLT ETF (30Y Treasury Bonds) Buy only between 80-90
What you think about ZROZ and GOVZ? The same as TLT, just even with a higher rate dependency than TLT (but more profitability as well)
ZROZ and GOVZ are very similar to each other. I would prefer GOVZ for the slightly lower management fee. Both should perform better than TLT if interest rates fall.
I like TLT because it has biweekly option expirations so you can use more versatile strategies. If you only trade the underlying then ZROZ and GOVZ look to be good alternatives to buy and hold. This assumes you have the risk appetite because they do tend to be more volatile than TLT. Which may not be a bad thing if the economy experiences a recession.
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog Thank you. Yeah I just want to use simple buy and hold for 1 year+/-, depending on how fast FED will be cutting rates.
@@alekseygerbyn69 broder thinkg of doing the same as u buying por 12 months this to be a bit safer, u bough govz?
Just bought $50k tmf today Monday 08/26/2024
Smith Melissa Jackson David Perez Ruth
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Good lord how OLD is this video?
everyone is talking about and buying tlt. aint no one talking about VGLT. basically the same fund, slightly less inverse interest rate exposure, but i feel a million times better stacking money with vangaurd in a vangaurd etf, than i do blackrock rofl. TLT is overbought with all the drama and talk this week, vglt is oversold and basically unknown to 99% of investors.
Not really. Alot of people have been buying TLT since in the 80's(like myself) also this is a long term play; so we welcome the dips
Both are good as far as I know.