Moore's Law of Real Estate : Gunnar Branson at TEDxNaperville
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- Опубліковано 19 тра 2024
- Moore's law of exponential shrinking applies to real estate too. The physical spaces in which we live, work, and play are transforming in front of our eyes and will eventually disrupt every aspect of our physical world and how we live in it. So what's coming our way and how will it affect you?
In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)
Mr. Branson loves real estate and sharing how to anticipate the future. Explains desire lines then provides an example reading of demand with respect to space and configuration requirements for residential real estate. Formalizes recent apartment design trends in major urban sites and useful for anyone in the rental and real-estate business today.
A pretty thought provoking view of the current real estate trend. As a millennial myself I see how many desire to live in an urban enviroment close to where the action is. However I wonder if the reduction in floor plan size has more to do with it being advantages for developers to squeeze more units into a building rather than make fewer units with larger floor plans. The developers then try to compensate with for the small size with certain amenities such as a lounge area. Incidentally Naperville is actually the antithetical of this, with large beautiful homes surrounding a small but vibrant downtown area, which is kind of ironic.
agenda 21
so you're saying this guy is selling this business plan in disguise... mmm, wait he is actually real estate agent, that is SALESMAN. (person who sells things other people build/manufacture/dont need anymore)
He mentioned the luxury apartment trend thing is most of the time these common areas are empty and never get used. I lived in a few and the movie room is always empty the lounge is always empty for the most part .
michael Sanseverino that is so true
I want to hear more from this guy. He really understands trends and where things are headed in the future. Very impressive and inspiring presentation!
Awesome talk and animated performance!!
Interesting take on real estate and how it affects our world.
This one bedroom apartment is good example for singles or consumer couples without children. I used to live in city, small apartment. Now I have 3 children and moved out to rural area. It is a seperate house, much larger then my one bedroom flat in city, about 10 acres of land (free parking), next to a forest. No trafic close to our house. We have 2 dogs, 3 cats. We have small garden, plenty of space for children to play. To be safe we dont have any pool or other accessable water on our property or next to it. Therefore in summer childer can go in and out of house without adult supervision. Air quality is much better, it is much quieter, we can hear birds singing. Price of this rural property is lower then small flat in city.
I dont understand how somebodie is willing to pay for one bedroom apartment in NY or Washington DC a price you could get a nice big house (or maybe a castle) with your own land around it. This super nice concrete area is owerpopulated with lot of homeless people on streets due to super high rents not to menthion sell price. Purchase price for such property consists of maybe 5% cost of building, and you pay 95% on top of it because of location. And what do you get because of the location - better schools, job opportunites and opportuntiy to consume, and consume. And you need to have a well payed job(it does not matter if you like it or not, most peopele work because fo paycheck) and work really hard just to pay for your small apartment. On top of it you depend on that job or two jobs just to pay for your apartment. If you manage to downsize apartment you might be able to buy all genereations of apple products once they are released and that is it, maybe pay overpriced tickets for some concert. This is reality for at least 90% of population in expensive and densely populated areas. You can't have your own car. Maybe you could buy one, but the parking would be more expensive then car itself if available at all.
Cost per square foot is the reason why people are forced move to smaller and smaller apartments, not the fact that now they consume digital content. Not so many had 30% of living space filled with bookshelves and CD's. I dont think that aniebodie would mind living in 2000 SF house, if it would cost the same as 500 SF apartmen and was in the same location.
Your conclusion killed me... "If they were in the same location".
You're definitely right but you're forgetting the need of single young people to be amongst their peers being in the in crowd having fun throughout the city. To the point where they don't mind the additional costs that come with the lifestyle.
so true! love this very much!
Wow. What a speech/presentation.
It's interesting to note that the speaker uses Washington DC as an example for his reduced sized apartment. Washington DC is one of the most expensive place in the world to live with ridiculously high real estate prices. What he is really showing is an economy apartment, or an economy condominium that is a direct result of the high prices. Eliminating book shelves does not dictate the size of a home, money does. But it is an interesting idea and it will apply in limited ways. Never forget, real estate salepeople are always selling you something.
great talk. actually learnt a lot and will be strategizing for my real estate plan
thank you for desire lines
This is a fantastic talk.
Did everyone else miss the point?
I still like the peaceful suburbs more than overpriced small apartments in the city.
Excellent. Terrific talk! You look like a young, healthy Don Draper.
This is true insight.
Great Insight!
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This one is different now with covid people don’t want to be in cities but in rural or suburbs.
Great info!
Guy reminds me of a mix if Agent Smith and Steve Martin. If you are one of the mindless sheeple then what he is saying applies to you but I need a big shop for all my tools that are required for my life and creativity. I could live in a van down by the river but I need a shop for a productive and enjoyable life.
Exactly what I've looked for all my life
COVID: I'm about to end this man's whole career.
Less things, more life.
Nice, enjoyed the talk.
brilliant
very good talk
Interesting take! Great video
Some people want the peace and quiet of the suburbs not the noise, crime and pollution of overcrowded cities.
The talk was amazing but what was the point? How did his speaking benefit us? Please explain anyone!!
An elaborate sales pitch for expensive rents...
You forgot to mention you also selling the location.
1. Cities are already too big to be fed from locally produced food. Eventually, food production will be forced to relocalize, and cities will get smaller. I think many people alive today will live to see this happen.
2. Books printed on low acid paper will endure for centuries. (Yes, I am aware that most 20th century books before the 1980's, and many during the 1980's, were not printed on low acid paper. I hope, God willing, to make back up copies of my older books before I die one day.) Some handwritten manuscripts are still around from more than a thousand years ago. I am not confident that today's electronic repositories will still be accessible hundreds of years from now.
3. Beware of extrapolating the future from recent trends. History is cyclical and trends are just the oscillations in the cycles. One powerful oscillation that started with the industrial revolution is getting rather long in the tooth so far as the positive phase of that oscillation goes. When it begins, the negative phase should be just as powerful.
Well, screw you sir, I´m keeping my books! :-)
The solution is LVT (land value tax). Rising property values are really based off rising land values, not rising building values. As property becomes more valuable, the landlord pays more tax, incentivizing them to build up rather than allow their properties to dilapidate. In certain Pennsylvania cities, the ratio of LVT to property tax is 6:1, encouraging landlords to keep up the place rather than let it become a slum. In PA they can only go so far with LVT because their residents still have to pay the federal income tax. Anyway, check out legendary economist Michael Hudson's work on LVT.
He wasn't wrong. California, since 2017, has required cities to allow second dwellings on residential lots in areas zoned for one dwelling per lot. Citizens did not vote on this. It is very good for some purposes and very bad for others. The good is obvious--rental income for owners and increased rental inventory for all. On the bad side is that it clobbers the value of single family zones for those who bought in such zones because they value low density. Buyers pay a premium for homes in single-family zones. That premium is paid again annually in property taxes that typically exact 1.3% of their property's value. $300K value - $3900/year. Low density is no longer guaranteed but no one's going to refund them or reduce their taxes.
at 17:18 , I think the speaker missed his own point, prolly because if you are a hammer, everything is a nail. People don't want to live in the city, cities are outrageously expensive cesspools of grime, crime and time wasting commutes. People want the functionality of the city but not the city itself. The information age is solving that now and will only accelerate over time. The solution to the whole movement of 'rent too high' is move where there is low rent, room to do your thing and out of the city. The recent warehouse fire where many artist died was claimed about lack of housing, the solution again is outside the city and coasts. The recent usa elections show where there are big swathes of red, underpopulated and over represented lands, the solution is to move there and get your voice heard. The opportunity is the build out that functionality of the city where there is room to do so off the coasts and out of the cities. The information age will kill real estate as we know it, this guy is only explaining the first salvos of the war.
luvbotany if people did not want to live in the city it would not have the demand it has. We also see city’s getting larger . The small town I grew up in dad got the place for 275 for 2 family in 1989. In 2004 they turned it to condos and made over 700,000. Moving out of the city may also give you a commute for work . I see why people want to move out of city based on bang for your buck . Still we give things up when we do that . What’s he forgets to mention also is the changing of transportation . The would was really changed by air travel how much more will it be changed by fast moving forms of transportation just as the hyper loop . If one could truly live 300 400 miles way from there job and it take the same tome as 20 to 40 miles does now that’s a total game changer.
luvbotany I totally disagree. The impact of 'the internet', like many other developments, won't be of the nature or extent that we imagine. Surely not enough to override hundreds of years of human movement toward agglomeration. I believe there are more forces at work than acknowledged, and I've seen that most city dwellers 'talk' a lot about leaving the city, but only very few actually leave it and don't return shortly after.
Having less material things to move around is great however today you also have unlimited digital distractions and time sucked away managing electronics. If you find a way to balance that which works for you, you're golden.
Fu Dan Chu I'm with you, managing digital distractions doesn't define my life. Life is only found in the wild open spaces, away from the concrete jungle distractions. Less space does not mean more life.
the talk might be amazing but gosh I wish it was less of a "performance" and he would just ...talk. Its distracting and I feel like im being sold something...but I dont know what
Sam G
The guy has a BFA in Drama, just checked out his LinkedIn profile :)
before you know it, probably a 2 bedroom apartment with a pool.
Pay more for less and now you're excited about it. lol
He was selling...an idea....that I'm not buying. Enjoyed the speech. It was engaging, but I'm not sold on the idea that less space is an entirely productive socioeconomic construct.
Sounds like studio unit or even more tiny one in Hong Kong
The"market price" of existing buildings should PLUMMET!!!!, as new high tech, graphene structural materials begin to saturate the construction processes, and enable the fabrication of dirt cheap super structures!!!....
The "Less Space More Living" philosophy that includes the Tiny House Movement will ultimately lead to humanity residing in their own bathtubs plugged into the Matrix.
Until 2020
less space yes I see your point, but more life...? nah, I don't think so
just because we dont need space to store books and records and CDs doesnt mean we have more life, it just means we need less storage space so we can live comfortably in a smaller apartment. HOWEVER how then do you explain the fact that HOUSES are getting bigger - the McMansion phenomenon??? sure we cook less but we want a kitchen AND a butlers kitchen, we spend less time at home but we want more toilets in our houses......??
+ the ridiculous property taxes
I wonder what size apartment does this guy live in.
3 x 3 cardboard box with holes poked in it. 😛😛😛😛
Con Collins A micro apartment of course :-P
His theory looks good on paper but it isnt true in the real world. Businesses and people are not moving to the compact upward building cities in the northeast. All of the boom cities in the US are in Texas and the southeast now. In those cities people build outward and take up as much space as possible. The city of the future is the exact opposite of NYC and looks more like Dallas or LA. One floor expansive buildings with large parking lots, less walkable streets, less public transport, and centered around driving from place to place. I know it isnt what you want to hear but that is what is growing.
I wonder if the US/Mexico border is a desire line.🤔
verely
Stack em and pack em, microwave meals and brains for all. Follow the desire lines all the way to the cancer medication dividend payoffs, a cell tower in every bedroom. Perfection.
Is this where AirBNB came from? lol
Moore's law? Our phones having the capacity to run the Apollo space program? Sounds like Christian Genco.
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For us it would be good if we could get rid of our stuff and still have more space... RE developers want us to live in boxes like the japanese. No thanks.
This is gaslighting and salesmanship at its best. You need less space and you will be happy paying more. 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️. No where are rents getting cheaper. 🤣🤣🤣
He said you're paying the same for less because we need less.
The reason people the demand for the space has at least doubled...
And shows how much people are using (wasting) their lives staring at a screen and not actively doing anything.
Guy makes me feel like a used car salesmen is selling me something and as a person in real estate he is trying to sell his dream of the future but it is flawed. He seems like the type of guy you run from at a party.
A lot of talking for saying houses are going to get smaller
The solution is LVT (land value tax). Rising property values are really based off rising land values, not rising building values. As property becomes more valuable, the landlord pays more tax, incentivizing them to build up rather than allow their properties to dilapidate. In certain Pennsylvania cities, the ratio of LVT to property tax is 6:1, encouraging landlords to keep up the place rather than let it become a slum. In PA they can only go so far with LVT because their residents still have to pay the federal income tax. Anyway, check out legendary economist Michael Hudson's work on LVT.
This whole talk attempts to justify and validate the fact that property is exponentially increasing in price. He wants that to happen because he makes many times more profit from a thousand tiny apartments than 100 larger apartments. The logical conclusion of this is that eventually everyone will be herded into prison cell-sized "homes" which he will describe as admirable and useful. Useful to him of course. This man is one of thousands of "entrepreneurs" who essentially leach off insanely rising property prices and then justifies it with logical fallacies.
The solution is LVT (land value tax). Rising property values are really based off rising land values, not rising building values. As property becomes more valuable, the landlord pays more tax, incentivizing them to build up rather than allow their properties to dilapidate. In certain Pennsylvania cities, the ratio of LVT to property tax is 6:1, encouraging landlords to keep up the place rather than let it become a slum. In PA they can only go so far with LVT because their residents still have to pay the federal income tax. Anyway, check out legendary economist Michael Hudson's work on LVT.
Stop apologising!!
this guy looks like agent smith. and kind of sounds like him too.
That was difficult to watch.
The solution is LVT (land value tax). Rising property values are really based off rising land values, not rising building values. As property becomes more valuable, the landlord pays more tax, incentivizing them to build up rather than allow their properties to dilapidate. In certain Pennsylvania cities, the ratio of LVT to property tax is 6:1, encouraging landlords to keep up the place rather than let it become a slum. In PA they can only go so far with LVT because their residents still have to pay the federal income tax. Anyway, check out legendary economist Michael Hudson's work on LVT.
The guy is a nut case
jbiasutti ...You certainly made a very insightful counter argument to his point. Not really.
jbiasutti
Like maybe Jim Carrey??
He's poised to be fabulously successful and wealthy then.
@@kurtpatterson509 he might even become president in the usa(all nutcases lateley, exept for Obama)
He's just trying to sell tiny "holes" for a large amount of money.... based on the argument that digital memory exists.... ridiculous!
This new generation live in places like these because they don't still have kids or animals, as they do, they change.
The solution is LVT (land value tax). Rising property values are really based off rising land values, not rising building values. As property becomes more valuable, the landlord pays more tax, incentivizing them to build up rather than allow their properties to dilapidate. In certain Pennsylvania cities, the ratio of LVT to property tax is 6:1, encouraging landlords to keep up the place rather than let it become a slum. In PA they can only go so far with LVT because their residents still have to pay the federal income tax. Anyway, check out legendary economist Michael Hudson's work on LVT.
Anyone else get a real greedy / shyster vibe from this guy? LOL
Spend 10 minutes defining a problem, spend the next 5 minutes providing a solution that is exactly the system we have that created you “supposed problem”. I guess it doesn’t include basic income. If you are for basic income are you also for flat tax, or are you for a graduated tax system? I am just so confused.
Very basic. Pathetic: "Less space more life". What about analyzing the growth in population and the demand and the relation with the higher building expenses for many reasons: labor and security laws, minimum weight,etc.
More life but mainting a house doesn't require 8 daily hours of work but 16 hours. The standard of live is stupidly expensive having an appartmet and a car plus daily life expenses are imposible to handle without debt. Absurd. I love real estate but I don't sell this idea that I'm making a favor.
The square meter change not because the demand wanted something smaller hahahaha
This guy is a rentier. Makes money is his sleep. Don't listen to him. The solution is LVT (land value tax). Rising property values are really based off rising land values, not rising building values. As property becomes more valuable, the landlord pays more tax, incentivizing them to build up rather than allow their properties to dilapidate. In certain Pennsylvania cities, the ratio of LVT to property tax is 6:1, encouraging landlords to keep up the place rather than let it become a slum. In PA they can only go so far with LVT because their residents still have to pay the federal income tax. Anyway, check out legendary economist Michael Hudson's work on LVT.
I am convinced that 90% of the TEDx talks are a waste of time. Unfortunately.
When a man dies, it becomes dirt, and the earth becomes a land.
Again, new people live on the land, and when they die, they become dirt and earth.
In the meantime, people build buildings on the dirt and the earth, and buy and sell them, making them profitable.
In other words, people make such new offspring, die and become repetitive as the earth becomes the earth.
...thought...my poetry...
Don't waste your time here. Swipe and go find a real TED talk.
real estate should be banned from ted talks^^
fact is that space consumption per person is constantly raising (in western societies), mostly because of the raising amount of single house holds. Second fact is, living becomes more and more unaffordable in cities. Both facts have to be somehow included when talking about real estate and housing...
For some reason, this talk seemed really shallow. Can't say i really learned anything, his rehearsed jokes were terrible and the metaphors were not very enlightening. Atoms to electrons?
maybe for the sheep. I move out in the country. 40 acres homestead. no big government to run my life
It is greed that has created a selfish world when billions are suffering.
Give him a smaller stage please. He doesn't need to swing his arms around that much & those screens behind him are not needed once we have implants. 🙄 omg this guy talks too much. He definately needs smaller lungs..😂 lol
This didn’t age well. He was wrong on many fronts.