Your toilet part comparison to housing is so true. I was itching to buy in 2020 but refused to spend every dollar I had on something that was unlivable. I just keep saving and putting money into retirement. My time will come yet even if it takes a few more years.
The problem is rent is so unaffordable and landlords are evicting people after a year. It makes it hard to save for a downpayment or to wait to purchase. Something needs to give. I am praying for God to intervene and to make home ownership and renting affordable again.
My understanding is that Powell will keep high interest rates to create a recession and bring down housing prices. Foreclosures will bring prices down. And am seeing some new construction now
@jonflynn I live in the Montreal region and want to move for so something smaller, maybe a condo. But I'm locked because of the lack of choices, the interest rate and the price still asked by sellers, they expect between 50k to 100k more than asked on Centris. They are stuck with it for at least 5-6 months. At one point, I am just not putting on sale my house because I don't want: a) losing my time because I had a really bad experience with an agent and b) selling reasonably but not able to buy anything because of this mentality .
Great content Jon. One addition to the toilet paper bubble. After the buying craze was over, grocery stores put up signs saying that toilet paper cannot be returned.
His stats match all the rest If you don't want to see his stats, let's see yours Waiting for you to provide so we can be fully informed I'll check daily
@@DummMoney-rr1fi Have you posted what’s missing? Not hard to find. Did you and he deleted. Prob not. He’s more honest then most. A friend owns a bigger brokerage (I’m not in the industry) and gives similar info he shows for our area.
Jon thank you for taking the time to break down the market. I really hope that more people tune in to your channel. Rational and down to earth analysis.
The prices went up when they allowed privet investors to buy single family homes and pay min capital gains tax on flipping then real estate brokers saw this was a way to increase profit margins they actually helped small investors form groups and then sold them the house and a management service to rent it sometimes as a hotel. these groups often bid 60k over asking hence prices went up faster than ever. As to toilet paper they ran in to buy it since on you tube it was showing empty shelf's in Australia and that there were shipping issues they wiped the place out in a day here.
Mayor Chow asked ford to do mpac assessments updates. She needs higher assessed values for the tax revenue bc torontos billion dollar deficits. Prices are up huge since 2016. Property tax going wayyyy up !!!
Toronto property tax is way to cheap,they need to double it for them to pay their fair share . 905s have been paying for Toronto’s services for years now.
they're bringing almost half a mil. this year, next year and in 2025 so demand will stay high for the foreseeable future at least on the rental side since new constructions aren't keeping up and the rental market is already in crisis almost everywhere. They're making plans to help existing homeowners in distress so don't count on foreclosure or distress sells The best high rate would do is discourage buyers or reduce their budget so less competition Libs aren't addressing this and anything they did so far helped stimulating demand rather than addressing the supply side so i wouldn't count on them in the short term. They're doing everything they can so that prices don't fall which exactly what newcomers and young families need ! This subject would be big in next election, time will tell i guess
While I do think that the market doesn't make any sense and should come back down to earth, that's simply not the case at least in metro Vancouver. There is just too many people that money is not a concern for them and will continue to push the prices up, there maybe brief breaks in the uptrend but the unaffordability will continue to get worse in the next couple of years. After a short pause on hikes, people were already outbidding each other by 50-100K on a typical condo around here, I've to say future doesn't look good for first time home buyers.
Jon, thanks for giving Huron-Perth a shout out. Finally! The market here has been the most consistent in SW Ontario for the past 12+ months throughout all of the chaos.
Jon, Prices have been on a tear since about 2013 when the bidding wars started. It only takes a small percentage of millionaires or a few people over paying to ratchet up prices. This is how it works - a house sells for 10 or 20% more and now this home is the new comparable to justify the same or higher prices. The value of homes is different now due to the immigration of 1 million people per year, still relatively low interest rates ( from a historical perspective ). The other problem is new infrastructure and housing is not being built to accomodate the growth in new people.
a cliche yes but the cure for high prices is high prices. Once all the speculators, millionaires as you call them and idiots are exhausted, home prices will decline, in real terms (not nominal). Same as it ever was.
speculators were the main cause for runaway prices since then. How do explain runaway prices in 2021 when immigration was still low/normal at best, they 2022 we had record numbers and prices dropped almost all year?
@@jonflynn Prices were significantly higher by 2020. Many people in 2014 told me prices could only go up based on the targeted immigration numbers. They said it was a simple matter of Supply and demand. Prices have come down in 2021 because they were at a lofty peak. Immigration is not the sole reason. Investors knew immigration would cause demand, and so they also bought.
Outstanding review! I’m renting my property in NS and renting in Toronto I can’t wait to time my next property. And I’m on variable rate. Bringing on BoC!
You should do a graph showing affordability. That graph will blow off the Axis. To have a 3x change in interest rates and a 10 percent reduction in price is insane
Here are the deflationary pressures that will be forced on the real estate market over the next decade: 1. Increased interest rates here for the long term, higher debt servicing costs. 2. Baby Boomer speculation flood. Canadians over 50 years old own almost 30% of the real estate in Canada. This demographic will be liquidating these properties over the next 10 years for their retirement, and downsizing. 3. Mortgage renews, and defaults incoming over the next 5 years. Over 30% of the reported mortgages held by Canadian banks are way over-leveraged, this will force people to sell or just simply walk away. 4. Decrease in money supply in North America, this will change how business in the economy is done overall, and will constrain spending across the board. To what degree this will effect things is yet to be seen, but we will see a steady downward trend over the next decade.
@@Cutlerypotato I see your points, but here is my question on them. 1. What would be the economic motivation of having higher Amortizations? This considering that the BOC is separate of the Federal Gov't, and have very clear directives that are mostly influenced by the word financial market. 2. Can we really expect massive population growth, with the cost of living in Canada rising at the rate that it is? People looking to immigrate to a better place are going to quickly start looking to countries other than Canada. 3. Yes I do agree that there are a lot of first time home buyers that want into the market, but that may only slow the decline in prices, and give the market the long term soft landing it is looking for. The reality for a lot of first time home buyers is the money is simply not there, and will only get harder to aquire. 4. Unfortunately the external global pressures on CBs will always out weigh the internal pressures to keep the system in tack. For this it is a decision to default on the national debt, or let a few banks fail internally, and I think we all know how that decision will go. Just some food for thought.
2) Doesn't seem to happen. Seniors rarely downsize unless they must - Most do not have too. Further, I hear all the time - "where am I gonna go". Most don't like condos. Condos have high maintenance fees and ridiculous taxes for zero land. If the government encouraged long term easy visas for Canadian Seniors in Portugal, Spain, South America, and other desirable places, and allowed for OHIP to be billed ( Globalists want to gouge old people on insurance in other countries and do not want people to be able to move or live in other countries ) , then this might allow for a significant amount of downsizing.
Always enjoy the content and info! Just wanted to share my opinion here as a real estate investor. Please note that many of us do not subscribe to the “get rich quick philosophy” It is about long term holds on hard assets with the ability to leverage. We buy real estate as a hedge against inflation. Many of us believe that the Federal Government will continue to print money in order to service debt and this will drive real estate prices. We are essentially “shorting” the Bank of Canada. A lot of people make a lot of predictions, but I believe that Canadian society will split into 2 distinct groups: Those that are forced to rent and the much small population that owns all the real estate holdings. It’s not a fair game and I sincerely doubt it will get any better for hard work people. Protect yourself and your family and buy property as soon as you can and never over leverage your position. Be careful out there, there are a lot of sharks in the water.
💯 agree. It’s unfortunate but for people wanting to buy a house for their family, it will be tough as they have to compete against people who want the same house for an investment. Yes there are a lot of sharks out there and they will keep the prices high through buying because it benefits that who owns the homes now. Nobody that owns a home right now in Canada wants them to go down.
Actually I somewhat disagree the eventuality of Fiat currencies collapsing is accurate problem with real estate is that there's fixed costs and eventually recessions do come and unemployment increases other hedges such as gold or Bitcoin don't have high costs to maintain if the economy's bad you don't have the revenue to service the fixed costs for homes and eventually that does happen
@@anthonym9130 where are you going to live? BecUse if you don’t own a home you need to rent a home. Unless you want to live in a van or trailer. But the land is where the cost is. If you want to live comfortably the rest of your life you need to be mortgage free. If people don’t own a home they better have a lot of income other than a wage. And it’s tough to work 5 days a week at 80 I am imagining
Love the Niagara Park's background. I can't believe I actually forgot about the toilet paper craze. Do you think that will go down in history like tulip Mania? Toilet paper Mania?
Jon, thank you. I still think that in 2008, we in Canada did not get affected because most of us never lost our jobs. What would happen if we have a repeat and as we are seeing there is a shortage of all sorts of people? There are those who see vacancies increasing for the next many years. What will happen to real estate and rents?
I think the reason we're in this mess is because of the attitude from surviving 2008 so well, the government felt our economy will remain resilient from financial crisis. This time we are leading it though.
2008 was led with subprime loans. Canada doesn’t have that. We also have a supply issue that the states didn’t have. And we also have a ton of demand. Prices have stagnated and dropped modestly but won’t crash.
@@alexrubin5955 It all has to do with debt. Every bank is underwater. SVB 1.25. RE Mortgages are part of this. As we've said for a year the monster is Commercial RE. Understand this. Videos here on youtube about this. Laurentian has been struggling for a long time. Its not a big bank but it the contagion one needs to be concerned with.
@@mogulrider Thanks. It's been 3 days since this news but there's not a whiff of this in the media. Maybe it's not as dire and likely just some M&A and/or consolidation?
If sales are up and listings are down, a shortage is coming again. I know that seems obvious, but was also going to happen is you’re going to see prices push-up… again. I love watching John. I don’t know why I’m so fascinated with the Toronto real estate market living 4000 miles away but like Tim Horton’s, you keep me coming back.
haha, thanks. Good point. New listings were down a lot further a few months ago but now that they're sitting months of supply is increasing so overall inventory is growing. Not all places report inventory but I should try to add a chart for the places that do.
@@jonflynn It will be interesting to see as none of us can tell the future. I still don’t understand the Canadian market versus the US market. I just can’t get my head around not having a fixed mortgage for the duration of your mortgage. But if your inventory goes up, and current owner’s interest rates are going up, ooffff, you’re in for a doozy of a time!
Point to consider: sales up, listing down may be the sign of a distressed market we await? High interest is forcing many to sell, while those with 2nd or 3rd properties have to wait it out to try to recover high prices paid...they can only hold so long as the rent market holds, or Airbnb is profitable. This may not take too long. Every house of cards looks strong until it crashes.
Good content Jon. Just wondering if you have any video on how to beat the high interest with lump sum payments for mortgage. Also what will be the indicator of lowest bottom of market ? Do you think FOMO will come back ? Because of limited supply for next many years
We may see intermittent FOMO but I think we will see real fear when prices continue to fall and people are upside down and renewing mortgages at higher rates and can't sell. Good idea for the video
cambridge has very low inventory and high demand and didn't get the message yet, they have big market swings there. They're just setting them selves up for bigger losses.
I think that they want us to have longer mortgages so that we'll have a harder/longer time paying off the principle of the loan in this fast passed, gotta move around a lot for work, day-in-age. 40 year mortgages are going to be the new normal along with higher central bank interest rates above +4%. I'm not sure we will see Canadian housing take a big massive pull back anymore, there are too many reasons why it shouldn't that befit all the right people.
no, the longer the loan the higher the term premium, and after 35+ years you pay for the house 2x in interest, longer ammorts wont help at this point, sorry.
Houses will triple in prices, people will be able to afford 5000 mortgages and all will be honky dory. Minimum wage people will earn 200K a year and all will live happily ever after, courtesy of your beloved Liberal politicians. Keep buying folks
OMG that would be a folly's game. I'm guessing your a renter, trusting the government for things. Free market rules the roost. Our absorption rate here in BC is close to 30% on SFH for June 2023. Whatcha think about that Mr Flynn?
Give it time and we’ll see where your absorption rate is at. You must be a homeowner likely or many properties that is praying things don’t crumble, good luck with that! I’d sell them now if I were you.
I am a twice home owner myself and I agree with you. There is no denying that we have a supply shortage, but we also have an issue with speculative price increase due to what I call a laissez faire mentality where government let everything goes by face value and not taking any action.
Hi, writing from London, Ontario. I thought the prediction was that prices would start crashing this fall/winter? Are you now thinking we will see those price declines sometime next year when they start dropping rates again? Want to get into the market but houses still listing for double what they were in 2019.
Jon doesn't have any idea where prices are going. He also said in January that prices wouldn't increase. Then when they started increasing, he said it wouldn't last. Of course prices increased five months in a row after that.
It did happen, the banks stepped in and increased people's amortizations past 50 years. Thats market manipulation and not even suppose to be legal. Real estate would've crashed.
looks like were going to see declines for the next 2-3 months and then the fall is a wildcard. Rate holds should be really be taking affect by then which will dampen the market. Once unemployments spikes we're in for a bumpy ride and prices will fall.
@@jonflynn just like how in January we were just about to hit your fear stage and prices were about to freefall? How much did prices decline since you made those comments? Just the number please. 🤔
No options to building your own house? I mean buy a piece of land in a virgin area and get a professional to erect the building of your choice. Is this not an option in Canada?
@jonflynn I thought land generally belonged to the government. The government is selling at breakneck prices to its citizens? Also, what is percentage cost of land in total building cost (assuming single family home). 10? 20%? 30?
Please create a video on the big banks fault in all this. Aren't they primarily responsible by doling out big loans to anyone with a pulse and enabling rampant speculation?
Banks didn't take guns to people's head to force them to take a big mortgage. In the end it was individual's decision. One of our society's problem is blaming others...
@@mfith They are doing this now by increasing amortization period by up to 90 years and putting people into more debt. This shows that people could barely afford their original mortgage amount when the interest rate was zero. CIBC is already under regulatory scanner.
The big banks are like the concentration camps in Germany and the employees are the soldiers and guards working there. The government, policy makers and BoC are the culprits that engineered the whole thing and gave the orders. Both the PM and BoC governor told Canadians to go out and spend money and take on debt because it will be cheap for a long time. They lied and led everyone into the gas chamber.
I honestly don't understand the drama from home owners. Overpaid for your house in a bidding war? You got what you wanted. Bought much earlier but are still hurting cause you took advantage of abnormally low rates to take out HELOCs and buy crap instead of paying off the house? You still got what you wanted. Greed. Reap what you sow.
the price falls when recession occurs, people lose their jobs, I guess the gov't tries delaying recession, economy is a cycle, once recession hits, we will see.
@johnnylongstocking183 how would Jon know that banks would be giving amortization plans of 40 years? The government and the banks are clearly trying to prevent crash but all their doing is kicking the can down the road. Stop being silly now.
Hey Jon, shouldn't the losses be approx 30% with the amount of rate increases from the peak? Kind of fear mongering if you ask me. A 10% drop from the peak is actually like a 20% gain verses the rate hikes.
Its hard to say what one will go down faster: Housing supply, (that is fit to live in) or....population Whatever goes down faster determines if prices go up or down. If we have another pandemic and more forced vaccination (self selected) then housing prices could go down. Otherwise the population will out live the buildings we have. 90% of americas houses could be condenmed by 2040 with no replacement.
Thanks to Red Tape ,supply is still very tight and not a lot of new development happening so I think prices will remain strong. Recession, if it happens, is another variable.
Your analogy is very inaccurate. Lots of confusion could be attributed to the one single fact: when we are talking about real estate it is essential to differentiate between the value of structure and the value of land. Most of our structures indeed are very similar to toilet paper. However land is different and it represents most of property value (approximately 90% in Vancouver). The land is artificially limited - from 70% to 90% of all land in cities like Vancouver and Toronto have been excluded from city growth due to zoning and other regulations for last 50 years.
This is what we get when we vote in politicians more concerned about their portfolios than the peoplethat voted them in. Our own housing minister went out and bought a second income property when he should have been formulating a plan to deal with the affordability issue. I have yet to hear back from his office or my own MP's on when they are going to take some action. Why are we paying these people to just sit on their hands while Rome is burning? I thought I couldn't be more disgusted when we had the Harper government in power but what the liberals have done (or haven't done) is far worse. In my neighbourhood alone I know of a 20yr old chinese national that owns 6 properties, one of which he just uses to park his $175k Mercedes. Is this a fair and just society where my kids have been born and grown up in, been educated and where my wife and I have paid taxes all our lives only to have to watch our kids move away because they can't afford to buy a home near us? We have lived in the same place for 35yrs and what we see now is outsiders (wealthy ones) looking to push us and others like us out of the area. What is happening now is nothing like when my parents immigrated here. They came with nothing and worked their asses off to build not only a better life for themselves but for their children. Instead of things being better for my kids this government has made life unaffordable for them while letting foreigners and speculators get wealthier. You get the level of incompetence you vote for.
Buy the most expensive house you can afford. Even if you have to use your children’s college fund for collateral. You want the best house to impress your friends and people who you don’t even know.
And now we have WW3. Add that to the mix. Thanks Jon. Keep it going. BTW possible .5 surprise this month. Go look at IYR ETF chart. Identical to 2008-2010. Its one of our indicators. Big money uses this ETF to run with real estate because its so liquid. Dividends and price appreciation without asset risk because it can be sold in seconds. Go look at 2007-2010 Identical to now
Jon, why don't you offer us to donate via some UA-cam rated platform? I think many people appreciate your work and would like to thank you for the effort that stopped some of us from "jumping" into the market.
Looking at 30 year charts says that ZIRP will happen again. We will either see outright deflation with higher rates for longer or inflation with ZIRP. This system is built on and for continuous inflation.
It may happen again, but this will not happen again in our lifetime. Get used to high interest rates as they are here to stay for a very long time. Government debts are over-leveraged and the only way to pay these debts is with high consumer interest.
@@SlayR1101 Gov't pays the higher interest rate on balance. If the rates stay high and the recession/job losses occur that means less taxable income and the downward spiral to deflation/depression occurs. If the gov't hikes taxes to facilitate the loss of taxes you have capital flight out of the country which also exacerbates the death spiral. The only way out of government debt is to inflate it away. If wages have meaningful increases that keep inflation high then yes higher for longer rates, if wages stagnate and rates stay elevated along with inflation, people leave for greener pastures and economic contraction takes place leading to lower rates to spur spending and business.
@@fillmorehillmore8239 You have to remember that interest rates are not just influenced by a countries economy alone. These rates effect bond prices which are a large part of what pays for national debt. If a countries bond prices are not competitive on world market then, they intern also cannot pay for the national debt, forcing interest rates up with the global rate. There are more than just internal pressures on interest rates right now.
@TC-td1vx right, more so he wants to pass this problem to the UCP after the election and let them deal with it. JT has a slim chance of winning, who knows he only needs ON, BC and QB to gain majority
If you are waiting on a prediction of Jon's to be right you are going to be waiting for a very long time. He's not exactly batting 100 on his predictions. Buy when it makes sense to buy for you and stop waiting for all the doomsday guys to be right. As you pointed out they haven't been right in the last 20 years. In that time people have bought homes and many have them entirely paid off now while those that waited to time the market are still waiting to time the market.
@@johnnylongstocking128 I was right on 2008 and own 2 homes atm. Willing to risk another year or two for 3. Or u can jump in like u said. Up to u. No one’s stopping u
People bought toilet paper because they usually take a shit at work and use the toilet paper at work. Now they take a shit at home and need to buy more toilet paper. It's that simple.
Jon also said 2 months ago that we would wait 2-3 months. And here we are with prices the same and rates up another 1%. Track record ain’t pretty for Jon.
@@johnnylongstocking128 yeah he’s just too biased and bearish. We need people on both sides of the argument but you also need a track record and need to be right at least sometimes. He isn’t. And therefore is just circulating fear and hope for Basement dwellers .
national prices are trending down now, sorry I don't control the speculative stupidity of consumers and unlimited extended amortizations. Are my forecasts perfect, no but they're happening. The market is in crisis right now.
@@jonflynn prices went down and rates went up. Mortgages are the same. Rates will eventually come down and prices are soar again. The days of a 1500$ are over because homes won’t be 450k at 2% anymore my friend.
@@rosatipicks nailed it! And then he responds to you that all his predictions are coming true lolol. I cannot wait to hear his excuses when prices start climbing again.
@@jonflynn hopefully they are better than the terrible agents at your own office that can't even be bothered to update their listing photos of 1M homes that still have snow in the yard. It's July.... Maybe if you spent less time making videos and more time being a broker your agents would have the skills to sell those houses.
You very conveniently left out that the employment rate and total jobs increased I see. The only reason that unemployment went up is because the labour pool and those looking for a job increased. Typical Jon only telling the negatives and taking things out of context. Remember all your predictions in January how prices wouldn't rise and that we were just about to see prices fall off a cliff in your fear stage... How did that work out again?
just like Crystia Freehand left out the unemployment rate and reported jobs. It doesn't matter how many jobs they've added when immigration is far outpacing that figure as represented by the unemployment rate. I've missed you lately, where have you been since the market turned?
Real estate was falling off a cliff, they artificially increased people's amortization past 50 years which isn't even legal. About 30% of mortgages. Those 30% should've forclosed and gone to auctions, that is more than enough to cause a real estate crash which is desperately needed. Now we have even less sellers because those who have 50 year AMs are underwater forever. The bubble has gotten even bigger.
@@jonflynn you deflect like CHRYSTIA (not Crystia) Freeland (not Freehand). Do you ever answer questions directly? The market turned? You mean summer happened. Remember a five months ago how you scoffed at prices starting to rise saying it was nothing??? What happened then? How much did prices decline since January? Just the number please.
The same job numbers they used after they shut down the economy and sent everyone home. When everyone went back to their previous jobs, they were all over the news saying we created new jobs. That's the same people you're relying on for real stats. 😅😅
A very sad day today indeed for realtors (barring John) and mortgage agents. Hammer 🔨 brought out again. What's going to hurt most to those dreaming of rate cuts is the pushing back of 2% inflation target to middle of 2025. My condolences to the lot!
Your toilet part comparison to housing is so true. I was itching to buy in 2020 but refused to spend every dollar I had on something that was unlivable. I just keep saving and putting money into retirement. My time will come yet even if it takes a few more years.
good attitude, don't get caught up in this mess. Your opportunity will come.
The problem is rent is so unaffordable and landlords are evicting people after a year. It makes it hard to save for a downpayment or to wait to purchase. Something needs to give. I am praying for God to intervene and to make home ownership and renting affordable again.
I agree, something needs to happen soon
My understanding is that Powell will keep high interest rates to create a recession and bring down housing prices. Foreclosures will bring prices down. And am seeing some new construction now
@jonflynn I live in the Montreal region and want to move for so something smaller, maybe a condo. But I'm locked because of the lack of choices, the interest rate and the price still asked by sellers, they expect between 50k to 100k more than asked on Centris. They are stuck with it for at least 5-6 months.
At one point, I am just not putting on sale my house because I don't want: a) losing my time because I had a really bad experience with an agent and b) selling reasonably but not able to buy anything because of this mentality .
Great content Jon. One addition to the toilet paper bubble. After the buying craze was over, grocery stores put up signs saying that toilet paper cannot be returned.
Superb addition to Jon’s great analogy! Buyer remorse in housing will be consequential
haha, I didn't see that part
Thanks for the great content as always, Jon. Not many in your space are facing the realities of it all like you are.
He cherry picks his favourite stats. What about absorption rate?
His stats match all the rest
If you don't want to see his stats, let's see yours
Waiting for you to provide so we can be fully informed
I'll check daily
I appreciate that!
@@DummMoney-rr1fi
Have you posted what’s missing? Not hard to find. Did you and he deleted. Prob not. He’s more honest then most. A friend owns a bigger brokerage (I’m not in the industry) and gives similar info he shows for our area.
Amazing content and real truth about the market. Many Thanks for your time, Jon...!!!
thanks for watching
Wow! I thought I was crazy and no one else saw the elephant in the room. Thanks for all the stats and honest reviews
Thanks for watching!
Jon thank you for taking the time to break down the market. I really hope that more people tune in to your channel. Rational and down to earth analysis.
awesome thanks
The prices went up when they allowed privet investors to buy single family homes and pay min capital gains tax on flipping then real estate brokers saw this was a way to increase profit margins they actually helped small investors form groups and then sold them the house and a management service to rent it sometimes as a hotel. these groups often bid 60k over asking hence prices went up faster than ever. As to toilet paper they ran in to buy it since on you tube it was showing empty shelf's in Australia and that there were shipping issues they wiped the place out in a day here.
Mayor Chow asked ford to do mpac assessments updates. She needs higher assessed values for the tax revenue bc torontos billion dollar deficits. Prices are up huge since 2016. Property tax going wayyyy up !!!
yep, that will be interesting
Toronto property tax is way to cheap,they need to double it for them to pay their fair share . 905s have been paying for Toronto’s services for years now.
As always, quality content. Keep it up Jon
Thanks again. As always, exceptional analysis and commentary.
Thanks
putting the loses in dollars really gives puts things into perspective. I'm from mtl and seeing what's happening next door in ontario is crazy
thanks for the comment
they're bringing almost half a mil. this year, next year and in 2025 so demand will stay high for the foreseeable future at least on the rental side since new constructions aren't keeping up and the rental market is already in crisis almost everywhere.
They're making plans to help existing homeowners in distress so don't count on foreclosure or distress sells
The best high rate would do is discourage buyers or reduce their budget so less competition
Libs aren't addressing this and anything they did so far helped stimulating demand rather than addressing the supply side so i wouldn't count on them in the short term. They're doing everything they can so that prices don't fall which exactly what newcomers and young families need !
This subject would be big in next election, time will tell i guess
Just means rates stay high for a looooong time
lock your doors because crime will go through the roof
True immigrants don't have the stability and clout to buy houses. It'll be gov't subsidized houses for majority of them.
While I do think that the market doesn't make any sense and should come back down to earth, that's simply not the case at least in metro Vancouver. There is just too many people that money is not a concern for them and will continue to push the prices up, there maybe brief breaks in the uptrend but the unaffordability will continue to get worse in the next couple of years. After a short pause on hikes, people were already outbidding each other by 50-100K on a typical condo around here, I've to say future doesn't look good for first time home buyers.
it will end up like demolition man, some will live in condos and the rest in the sewers
Well the data just shown to you shows prices declining at 3% mom which would be 30% yoy so it looks like you're wrong.
We can't predict anything because the rules of finance are all broken. What a mess.
I'm betting on the laws of the universe winning
@@jonflynn I hope you are right I'm sitting on my bitcoin winnings in cash but I need a 20% drop to get in still. What a country.
good post Jon... thanks for collating those stats... it is plenty of work i know...
thanks for the support
Jon, thanks for giving Huron-Perth a shout out. Finally! The market here has been the most consistent in SW Ontario for the past 12+ months throughout all of the chaos.
no problem, thanks for watching
Jon, Prices have been on a tear since about 2013 when the bidding wars started. It only takes a small percentage of millionaires or a few people over paying to ratchet up prices. This is how it works - a house sells for 10 or 20% more and now this home is the new comparable to justify the same or higher prices. The value of homes is different now due to the immigration of 1 million people per year, still relatively low interest rates ( from a historical perspective ). The other problem is new infrastructure and housing is not being built to accomodate the growth in new people.
a cliche yes but the cure for high prices is high prices. Once all the speculators, millionaires as you call them and idiots are exhausted, home prices will decline, in real terms (not nominal). Same as it ever was.
A whole generation or two have never had to hand the keys to the bank and never had to take a loss on real estate.
speculators were the main cause for runaway prices since then. How do explain runaway prices in 2021 when immigration was still low/normal at best, they 2022 we had record numbers and prices dropped almost all year?
@@jonflynn Prices were significantly higher by 2020. Many people in 2014 told me prices could only go up based on the targeted immigration numbers. They said it was a simple matter of Supply and demand. Prices have come down in 2021 because they were at a lofty peak. Immigration is not the sole reason. Investors knew immigration would cause demand, and so they also bought.
@@jonflynn The price wars started near 2013. Immigration and speculation
Outstanding review! I’m renting my property in NS and renting in Toronto I can’t wait to time my next property. And I’m on variable rate. Bringing on BoC!
Thanks for watching
Good work, Jon.
Thank you! Cheers!
You should do a graph showing affordability. That graph will blow off the Axis. To have a 3x change in interest rates and a 10 percent reduction in price is insane
yep, I touched on it in a past video, it's crazy.
Here are the deflationary pressures that will be forced on the real estate market over the next decade:
1. Increased interest rates here for the long term, higher debt servicing costs.
2. Baby Boomer speculation flood. Canadians over 50 years old own almost 30% of the real estate in Canada. This demographic will be liquidating these properties over the next 10 years for their retirement, and downsizing.
3. Mortgage renews, and defaults incoming over the next 5 years. Over 30% of the reported mortgages held by Canadian banks are way over-leveraged, this will force people to sell or just simply walk away.
4. Decrease in money supply in North America, this will change how business in the economy is done overall, and will constrain spending across the board.
To what degree this will effect things is yet to be seen, but we will see a steady downward trend over the next decade.
@@Cutlerypotato I see your points, but here is my question on them.
1. What would be the economic motivation of having higher Amortizations? This considering that the BOC is separate of the Federal Gov't, and have very clear directives that are mostly influenced by the word financial market.
2. Can we really expect massive population growth, with the cost of living in Canada rising at the rate that it is? People looking to immigrate to a better place are going to quickly start looking to countries other than Canada.
3. Yes I do agree that there are a lot of first time home buyers that want into the market, but that may only slow the decline in prices, and give the market the long term soft landing it is looking for. The reality for a lot of first time home buyers is the money is simply not there, and will only get harder to aquire.
4. Unfortunately the external global pressures on CBs will always out weigh the internal pressures to keep the system in tack. For this it is a decision to default on the national debt, or let a few banks fail internally, and I think we all know how that decision will go.
Just some food for thought.
all great points
2) Doesn't seem to happen. Seniors rarely downsize unless they must - Most do not have too. Further, I hear all the time - "where am I gonna go". Most don't like condos. Condos have high maintenance fees and ridiculous taxes for zero land. If the government encouraged long term easy visas for Canadian Seniors in Portugal, Spain, South America, and other desirable places, and allowed for OHIP to be billed ( Globalists want to gouge old people on insurance in other countries and do not want people to be able to move or live in other countries ) , then this might allow for a significant amount of downsizing.
@@gregfraser8784 Excellent idea!
Always enjoy the content and info!
Just wanted to share my opinion here as a real estate investor. Please note that many of us do not subscribe to the “get rich quick philosophy” It is about long term holds on hard assets with the ability to leverage.
We buy real estate as a hedge against inflation. Many of us believe that the Federal Government will continue to print money in order to service debt and this will drive real estate prices. We are essentially “shorting” the Bank of Canada.
A lot of people make a lot of predictions, but I believe that Canadian society will split into 2 distinct groups: Those that are forced to rent and the much small population that owns all the real estate holdings.
It’s not a fair game and I sincerely doubt it will get any better for hard work people. Protect yourself and your family and buy property as soon as you can and never over leverage your position. Be careful out there, there are a lot of sharks in the water.
💯 agree. It’s unfortunate but for people wanting to buy a house for their family, it will be tough as they have to compete against people who want the same house for an investment. Yes there are a lot of sharks out there and they will keep the prices high through buying because it benefits that who owns the homes now. Nobody that owns a home right now in Canada wants them to go down.
Thanks for the comment
Actually I somewhat disagree the eventuality of Fiat currencies collapsing is accurate problem with real estate is that there's fixed costs and eventually recessions do come and unemployment increases other hedges such as gold or Bitcoin don't have high costs to maintain if the economy's bad you don't have the revenue to service the fixed costs for homes and eventually that does happen
@@anthonym9130 where are you going to live? BecUse if you don’t own a home you need to rent a home. Unless you want to live in a van or trailer. But the land is where the cost is. If you want to live comfortably the rest of your life you need to be mortgage free. If people don’t own a home they better have a lot of income other than a wage. And it’s tough to work 5 days a week at 80 I am imagining
great analogy ..
thanks
Thanks Jon, another HONEST take on CanRE
no problem, thanks for watching
Love the Niagara Park's background. I can't believe I actually forgot about the toilet paper craze. Do you think that will go down in history like tulip Mania? Toilet paper Mania?
I don't know but it was very odd
Jon, thank you. I still think that in 2008, we in Canada did not get affected because most of us never lost our jobs. What would happen if we have a repeat and as we are seeing there is a shortage of all sorts of people? There are those who see vacancies increasing for the next many years. What will happen to real estate and rents?
I think the reason we're in this mess is because of the attitude from surviving 2008 so well, the government felt our economy will remain resilient from financial crisis. This time we are leading it though.
2008 was led with subprime loans. Canada doesn’t have that. We also have a supply issue that the states didn’t have. And we also have a ton of demand. Prices have stagnated and dropped modestly but won’t crash.
You were warned
Laurentian Bank puts itself up for sale. Now its the contagion one needs to be concerned about. All banks will get a hard look at now.
Interesting. Do they deal in mortgages? Just wondering if this has anything to do with real estate.
@@alexrubin5955 It all has to do with debt. Every bank is underwater. SVB 1.25. RE Mortgages are part of this. As we've said for a year the monster is Commercial RE. Understand this. Videos here on youtube about this. Laurentian has been struggling for a long time. Its not a big bank but it the contagion one needs to be concerned with.
yeah that was an interesting move by them, make you wonder
@@mogulrider Thanks. It's been 3 days since this news but there's not a whiff of this in the media. Maybe it's not as dire and likely just some M&A and/or consolidation?
If sales are up and listings are down, a shortage is coming again. I know that seems obvious, but was also going to happen is you’re going to see prices push-up… again. I love watching John. I don’t know why I’m so fascinated with the Toronto real estate market living 4000 miles away but like Tim Horton’s, you keep me coming back.
haha, thanks. Good point. New listings were down a lot further a few months ago but now that they're sitting months of supply is increasing so overall inventory is growing. Not all places report inventory but I should try to add a chart for the places that do.
@@jonflynn It will be interesting to see as none of us can tell the future. I still don’t understand the Canadian market versus the US market. I just can’t get my head around not having a fixed mortgage for the duration of your mortgage. But if your inventory goes up, and current owner’s interest rates are going up, ooffff, you’re in for a doozy of a time!
Point to consider: sales up, listing down may be the sign of a distressed market we await? High interest is forcing many to sell, while those with 2nd or 3rd properties have to wait it out to try to recover high prices paid...they can only hold so long as the rent market holds, or Airbnb is profitable. This may not take too long. Every house of cards looks strong until it crashes.
@@joeycmore that’s a fair statement that may be true. Let’s see what happens next?
❤thanks great reporting
Thanks
Thanks
No problem
Good content Jon. Just wondering if you have any video on how to beat the high interest with lump sum payments for mortgage. Also what will be the indicator of lowest bottom of market ? Do you think FOMO will come back ? Because of limited supply for next many years
We may see intermittent FOMO but I think we will see real fear when prices continue to fall and people are upside down and renewing mortgages at higher rates and can't sell. Good idea for the video
It's called insanity.
yep
How does Toronto lose 2.8% while Cambridge gains 7% in a month? It’s like the market is trying to prove how irrational it can be…
cambridge has very low inventory and high demand and didn't get the message yet, they have big market swings there. They're just setting them selves up for bigger losses.
I think that they want us to have longer mortgages so that we'll have a harder/longer time paying off the principle of the loan in this fast passed, gotta move around a lot for work, day-in-age. 40 year mortgages are going to be the new normal along with higher central bank interest rates above +4%. I'm not sure we will see Canadian housing take a big massive pull back anymore, there are too many reasons why it shouldn't that befit all the right people.
Agreed. We will definitely see longer amortization. I could see peoples kids taking on the back half of mortgages in 30years.
Thanks for commenting and sharing your opinion
no, the longer the loan the higher the term premium, and after 35+ years you pay for the house 2x in interest, longer ammorts wont help at this point, sorry.
@@reidkarges6199 Paying for our Canadian carboard homes in 2 generations? sounds crazy but I guess it's the new reality.
Houses will triple in prices, people will be able to afford 5000 mortgages and all will be honky dory. Minimum wage people will earn 200K a year and all will live happily ever after, courtesy of your beloved Liberal politicians. Keep buying folks
the only way to fix this without house prices dropping is for families to make $200K per year, that's for sure
That's great that prices are down from their peaks, but what are they compared to pre 2020?
good point, too high. My prediction is we're headed for 2019 prices at minimum
Lmao my god. 2019 prices? Average home was 450k. You think the 700k home is going down to 450k? You’re out of touch.
Having a government that treats real estate as a basic need instead of a commodity would be a good start.
OMG that would be a folly's game. I'm guessing your a renter, trusting the government for things. Free market rules the roost. Our absorption rate here in BC is close to 30% on SFH for June 2023. Whatcha think about that Mr Flynn?
Give it time and we’ll see where your absorption rate is at. You must be a homeowner likely or many properties that is praying things don’t crumble, good luck with that! I’d sell them now if I were you.
Government is the root of most of the problems, don't ask for more government pls
great suggestion
I am a twice home owner myself and I agree with you. There is no denying that we have a supply shortage, but we also have an issue with speculative price increase due to what I call a laissez faire mentality where government let everything goes by face value and not taking any action.
Collusion is illegal except in Canada. Lol. Ask the banks and government and developers about collusion.
they're all scratching each others backs
Hi, writing from London, Ontario. I thought the prediction was that prices would start crashing this fall/winter? Are you now thinking we will see those price declines sometime next year when they start dropping rates again? Want to get into the market but houses still listing for double what they were in 2019.
Jon doesn't have any idea where prices are going. He also said in January that prices wouldn't increase. Then when they started increasing, he said it wouldn't last. Of course prices increased five months in a row after that.
It did happen, the banks stepped in and increased people's amortizations past 50 years. Thats market manipulation and not even suppose to be legal.
Real estate would've crashed.
looks like were going to see declines for the next 2-3 months and then the fall is a wildcard. Rate holds should be really be taking affect by then which will dampen the market. Once unemployments spikes we're in for a bumpy ride and prices will fall.
@@jonflynn just like how in January we were just about to hit your fear stage and prices were about to freefall? How much did prices decline since you made those comments? Just the number please. 🤔
Thanks for your insight!
No options to building your own house? I mean buy a piece of land in a virgin area and get a professional to erect the building of your choice. Is this not an option in Canada?
still costs too much, land is too expensive also because of the bubble
@jonflynn I thought land generally belonged to the government. The government is selling at breakneck prices to its citizens? Also, what is percentage cost of land in total building cost (assuming single family home). 10? 20%? 30?
Please create a video on the big banks fault in all this. Aren't they primarily responsible by doling out big loans to anyone with a pulse and enabling rampant speculation?
Banks didn't take guns to people's head to force them to take a big mortgage. In the end it was individual's decision. One of our society's problem is blaming others...
@@mfith They are doing this now by increasing amortization period by up to 90 years and putting people into more debt. This shows that people could barely afford their original mortgage amount when the interest rate was zero. CIBC is already under regulatory scanner.
The big banks are like the concentration camps in Germany and the employees are the soldiers and guards working there. The government, policy makers and BoC are the culprits that engineered the whole thing and gave the orders. Both the PM and BoC governor told Canadians to go out and spend money and take on debt because it will be cheap for a long time. They lied and led everyone into the gas chamber.
I honestly don't understand the drama from home owners. Overpaid for your house in a bidding war? You got what you wanted. Bought much earlier but are still hurting cause you took advantage of abnormally low rates to take out HELOCs and buy crap instead of paying off the house? You still got what you wanted.
Greed. Reap what you sow.
great point
Hi John, I feel that you tend to say the real estate market is about to crash but it hasn’t happened yet and prices continue to higher . 😏
That is all Jon will ever say no matter that is actually happening.
the price falls when recession occurs, people lose their jobs, I guess the gov't tries delaying recession, economy is a cycle, once recession hits, we will see.
@johnnylongstocking183 how would Jon know that banks would be giving amortization plans of 40 years? The government and the banks are clearly trying to prevent crash but all their doing is kicking the can down the road. Stop being silly now.
rome wasn't built in a day
@@101academics if he understood the basics of variable rate mortgages he would have.
Good time to buy a house....on your credit card!
You got that right!
Hey Jon, shouldn't the losses be approx 30% with the amount of rate increases from the peak? Kind of fear mongering if you ask me. A 10% drop from the peak is actually like a 20% gain verses the rate hikes.
lmfao.
I'd have to see your numbers on paper to agree or disagree
Its hard to say what one will go down faster:
Housing supply, (that is fit to live in) or....population
Whatever goes down faster determines if prices go up or down.
If we have another pandemic and more forced vaccination (self selected) then housing prices could go down.
Otherwise the population will out live the buildings we have. 90% of americas houses could be condenmed by 2040 with no replacement.
will be interesting to see what happens
Thanks to Red Tape ,supply is still very tight and not a lot of new development happening so I think prices will remain strong. Recession, if it happens, is another variable.
I agree, recession will really change things regardless of supply
The hallmark of a recession, is when people are made redundant. Period.
Your analogy is very inaccurate. Lots of confusion could be attributed to the one single fact: when we are talking about real estate it is essential to differentiate between the value of structure and the value of land.
Most of our structures indeed are very similar to toilet paper. However land is different and it represents most of property value (approximately 90% in Vancouver). The land is artificially limited - from 70% to 90% of all land in cities like Vancouver and Toronto have been excluded from city growth due to zoning and other regulations for last 50 years.
Thanks for the feedback
PEI a province? That's just silly, it doesn't have the population of a medium sized city.
That's why their data is like a yoyo, too small of a sample size
Shhh im making a fortune in real estate.
you and many others
This is what we get when we vote in politicians more concerned about their portfolios than the peoplethat voted them in. Our own housing minister went out and bought a second income property when he should have been formulating a plan to deal with the affordability issue. I have yet to hear back from his office or my own MP's on when they are going to take some action. Why are we paying these people to just sit on their hands while Rome is burning? I thought I couldn't be more disgusted when we had the Harper government in power but what the liberals have done (or haven't done) is far worse. In my neighbourhood alone I know of a 20yr old chinese national that owns 6 properties, one of which he just uses to park his $175k Mercedes. Is this a fair and just society where my kids have been born and grown up in, been educated and where my wife and I have paid taxes all our lives only to have to watch our kids move away because they can't afford to buy a home near us? We have lived in the same place for 35yrs and what we see now is outsiders (wealthy ones) looking to push us and others like us out of the area. What is happening now is nothing like when my parents immigrated here. They came with nothing and worked their asses off to build not only a better life for themselves but for their children. Instead of things being better for my kids this government has made life unaffordable for them while letting foreigners and speculators get wealthier. You get the level of incompetence you vote for.
very well said. Lets hope things change sooner than later
I thought foreigner ownership of homes was eliminated unless Canadian recently (by law)? This didn't help?
Do you think that the next 6 months will provide a good opportunity to buy?
haha
No no no
Buy the most expensive house you can afford. Even if you have to use your children’s college fund for collateral. You want the best house to impress your friends and people who you don’t even know.
@@Cutlerypotatofound the real estate agent.
better opportunities next year and 2025 but depends on your situation too
And now we have WW3. Add that to the mix. Thanks Jon. Keep it going.
BTW possible .5 surprise this month. Go look at IYR ETF chart. Identical to 2008-2010. Its one of our indicators. Big money uses this ETF to run with real estate because its so liquid. Dividends and price appreciation without asset risk because it can be sold in seconds.
Go look at 2007-2010 Identical to now
will check it out thanks
What do you think will happen in the next 12-24 months to RE? Up, down, sideways?
@@rachelk8368 Sorry I don't give financial advice. But Jon does. Listen to him. He's on the ground and he's trying to be truthful which is rare
@@jonflynn Sorry Jon IYR not AYR
@@mogulridertoo late. He never cared to begin with.
Jon, why don't you offer us to donate via some UA-cam rated platform? I think many people appreciate your work and would like to thank you for the effort that stopped some of us from "jumping" into the market.
I'll look in to it thanks
200% Love Content = TOILET
Thanks
Looking at 30 year charts says that ZIRP will happen again. We will either see outright deflation with higher rates for longer or inflation with ZIRP. This system is built on and for continuous inflation.
It may happen again, but this will not happen again in our lifetime. Get used to high interest rates as they are here to stay for a very long time. Government debts are over-leveraged and the only way to pay these debts is with high consumer interest.
@@SlayR1101 Gov't pays the higher interest rate on balance. If the rates stay high and the recession/job losses occur that means less taxable income and the downward spiral to deflation/depression occurs. If the gov't hikes taxes to facilitate the loss of taxes you have capital flight out of the country which also exacerbates the death spiral.
The only way out of government debt is to inflate it away. If wages have meaningful increases that keep inflation high then yes higher for longer rates, if wages stagnate and rates stay elevated along with inflation, people leave for greener pastures and economic contraction takes place leading to lower rates to spur spending and business.
@@fillmorehillmore8239 You have to remember that interest rates are not just influenced by a countries economy alone. These rates effect bond prices which are a large part of what pays for national debt. If a countries bond prices are not competitive on world market then, they intern also cannot pay for the national debt, forcing interest rates up with the global rate. There are more than just internal pressures on interest rates right now.
@@SlayR1101 Agreed. Unless the debt is monetized.
@@SlayR1101high interest rates = the great reset Klaus was talking about. A lot of people are going to get wrecked in the next 10 years.
Thought I was supposed to wait around till June, its July now. I keep being told to hold on before buying. Been doing that since 2004.
Please go ahead and buy 🙏
2004? Where were u in 2008. Also Turdeau is trying extremely hard trying not to pop a bubble during his term. It’s almost insane.
@TC-td1vx right, more so he wants to pass this problem to the UCP after the election and let them deal with it. JT has a slim chance of winning, who knows he only needs ON, BC and QB to gain majority
If you are waiting on a prediction of Jon's to be right you are going to be waiting for a very long time. He's not exactly batting 100 on his predictions. Buy when it makes sense to buy for you and stop waiting for all the doomsday guys to be right. As you pointed out they haven't been right in the last 20 years. In that time people have bought homes and many have them entirely paid off now while those that waited to time the market are still waiting to time the market.
@@johnnylongstocking128 I was right on 2008 and own 2 homes atm. Willing to risk another year or two for 3. Or u can jump in like u said. Up to u. No one’s stopping u
People bought toilet paper because they usually take a shit at work and use the toilet paper at work. Now they take a shit at home and need to buy more toilet paper. It's that simple.
haha, good point
Jon also said 2 months ago that we would wait 2-3 months. And here we are with prices the same and rates up another 1%. Track record ain’t pretty for Jon.
He also scoffed at the price increases in February saying they wouldn't last. Then in May he was tweeting about how prices had declined 2% in a week.
@@johnnylongstocking128 yeah he’s just too biased and bearish. We need people on both sides of the argument but you also need a track record and need to be right at least sometimes. He isn’t. And therefore is just circulating fear and hope for Basement dwellers .
national prices are trending down now, sorry I don't control the speculative stupidity of consumers and unlimited extended amortizations. Are my forecasts perfect, no but they're happening. The market is in crisis right now.
@@jonflynn prices went down and rates went up. Mortgages are the same. Rates will eventually come down and prices are soar again. The days of a 1500$ are over because homes won’t be 450k at 2% anymore my friend.
@@rosatipicks nailed it! And then he responds to you that all his predictions are coming true lolol. I cannot wait to hear his excuses when prices start climbing again.
Real estate is not a get rich quick scheme. Its a get rich eventually scheme.
or go broke quick if you enter at the wrong time
I'd never use this guy for his realtor services
But he promises he will be professional and honest in every video.... 🤣🤣
Thanks, I can refer you to a fellow agent if needed.
@@jonflynn hopefully they are better than the terrible agents at your own office that can't even be bothered to update their listing photos of 1M homes that still have snow in the yard. It's July.... Maybe if you spent less time making videos and more time being a broker your agents would have the skills to sell those houses.
You very conveniently left out that the employment rate and total jobs increased I see. The only reason that unemployment went up is because the labour pool and those looking for a job increased. Typical Jon only telling the negatives and taking things out of context. Remember all your predictions in January how prices wouldn't rise and that we were just about to see prices fall off a cliff in your fear stage... How did that work out again?
just like Crystia Freehand left out the unemployment rate and reported jobs. It doesn't matter how many jobs they've added when immigration is far outpacing that figure as represented by the unemployment rate. I've missed you lately, where have you been since the market turned?
Way to go Jon, this guy/gal is an antagonist looser
Real estate was falling off a cliff, they artificially increased people's amortization past 50 years which isn't even legal. About 30% of mortgages. Those 30% should've forclosed and gone to auctions, that is more than enough to cause a real estate crash which is desperately needed.
Now we have even less sellers because those who have 50 year AMs are underwater forever. The bubble has gotten even bigger.
@@jonflynn you deflect like CHRYSTIA (not Crystia) Freeland (not Freehand). Do you ever answer questions directly?
The market turned? You mean summer happened. Remember a five months ago how you scoffed at prices starting to rise saying it was nothing??? What happened then? How much did prices decline since January? Just the number please.
The same job numbers they used after they shut down the economy and sent everyone home. When everyone went back to their previous jobs, they were all over the news saying we created new jobs. That's the same people you're relying on for real stats. 😅😅
A very sad day today indeed for realtors (barring John) and mortgage agents.
Hammer 🔨 brought out again. What's going to hurt most to those dreaming of rate cuts is the pushing back of 2% inflation target to middle of 2025.
My condolences to the lot!
Thanks for the comment
@@jonflynn You are the best. Love your content.
Waiting for it to crash then pick up a few houses. Ta.
Bacon
yum