To my own research In USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
I've remained in touch with a financial analyst since the start of my business. Amid today's dynamic market, the key difficulty is pinpointing the right time to buy or sell when dealing with trending stocks - a seemingly simple task but challenging in reality. My portfolio has grown by more than 5 figures within just a year, and i have entrusted my advisor with the task of determining entry and exit points.
Could you guide me on how to get in touch with your advisor? My funds are being eroded by inflation, and I'm seeking a more lucrative investment strategy to effectively utilize them.
'Sophia Maurine Lanting is the coach that guides me, you probably might have come across her before I found her through a Newsweek report. She's quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the information. I conducted my own research on google and your advisor appears to be highly skilled and knowledgeable. I've sent her an email and arranged a phone call.
Great info. Inflation in Canada is starting to tick up again probably because of the dropping interest rates pushing the Canadian dollar lower which just hit a 5 yr low. A low CAD makes imports more expensive. We have a weak economy and in particular a bleak outlook for Oil prices going into 2025. The real estate sector has not corrected properly yet. You really have to wonder when things will break.
Real state has been "resilient" because of the bank's "extend and pretend" loan policies. The market should have had a major reset by now but it's being carried by the banks not wanting to take hits to their balance sheets. This can only last so long though.
Nothing wrong with people "extending" their term. Mind you, it's THEIR decision, not the bank's. They are still building equity and don't have to cut back on other expenses if their employment prospects are good (like for 98% of the currently employed population)
@@tudvalstone Are you serious? The terms are 25 years not 90 years. lol you gotta be a realtor (or a banker). Can't make the payments? The bank should foreclose like they used to do.
When people extend amortization they spend money on wants rather than needs because they’ll have cash left over. If you can’t reasonably carry the mortgage in a reasonable amount of time then you’re living outside your means.
❤ I will vote for any Prime Minister that will connect CRA with the banks to verify income when purchasing a house or. Fully manipulate and Canadains are being robbed alive because of higher rent prices and mortgage payments..... I feel sad for those don't understand how this housing bubble is kept alive ....It's not fair for new generation of kids....😢
There is nothing new. The employment rate has always been the anchor of housing prices. I remember in the 1989 housing crash. As unemployment went up, housing prices went south despite successive rate cuts. This will be repeated shortly.
This makes sense, but many people are optimistic, with a new federal government taking over in a year. If they open upmour natural resources, that'll help the economy alot.
Been following this guy for couple years now.. not the average realtor this guys forecast back then is now on point.. Realtors would show up in the comments with negative remarks when Jon was advising wait to buy… Where are they now…
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Insightful... I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
Thank you Mr. Flynn for the great report. Governments are deep in debt, people are deep in debt. This is starting to look more like the 80's and 90's. GST will rise to 8 or 9 percent in a year or two.
Hi Jon, i've been following you for about 6 months now and I just want to thank you for the quality of the content you are posting and the research that goes along with it. I am currently living in Montreal, and love the fact that you are covering most Canadian cities and not just the market you operate in. I have been saving up for quite some time now and resisting the temptation to jump in the market frenzy like everyone around me did, so I hope you are right about what's ahead of us 😂😂 This home buying recipe you came up with is very clever and kind of connects with Ray Dalio's economic cycles principles. Anyways Keep up the good work !
Given the current global geopolitical circumstances, tensions in Ukraine and West Asia (the Middle East), and regime change in Washington, there will be a ROCKY road ahead in the foreseeable future affecting the economies and inflation. Food and Gas prices will be the FIRST indicators of what will be ahead. Projection/Forecast: High Geopolitical Tensions/Turmoil, High Energy Prices, High Inflation, and you guess it right, the HIGHER RATES.
@@rob2039 Nuclear Holocaust? There is a new threshold that just passed. It could have devastating consequences for the entire world. Shows are starting soon! Brace for fallouts!!!
No first time buyers can afford anything and with the 5 year government of Canada bond yield blowing through 3.3 percent today no speculators will be buying either so prices have to fall.
One thing I don't hear being mentioned, there is currently a foreign ban for 2 years, which expires soon. It could be extended, we don't know, but it is about to expire. There is also a factor of the weakening Canadian dollar, which means there is a dip in market price or a few percentages, which will drive prices of everyday items upwards, which means the Bank of Canada will either have to cut more rates to stimulate the market, or accept the inflation and thus destroy the value of debt, at which point they can stimulate more borrowing after some time. So all being said, I see the Real Estate market stagnant for a few years and we can see another rapid market correction like the one in 2016-2017, and prices rising by 20-30% within 4-6 years. There are other factors and a few scenarios, but I do not see this market moving up much in the near future, not in a meaningful way anyway.
@@Stormshfter Well, that is a huge component in this equation, thanks for the update. I think they were aware of the potential pressure that would create. I personally think the government and central bank are now pushing the narrative that interest rates may go higher because they want a certain percentage of people to take mortgages at these rates. If they don't they may need to add other measures to stimulate the economy. I guess we'll see.
They created so many loopholes that the laughable "foreign buyer ban" is not actually a foreign buyer ban at all. Read Better Dwelling's article "Canada Quietly Rolled Back Parts of Its Foreign Buyer Ban After Just 86 Days" (March 2023). TFWs & int'l students are still allowed to buy, which is ridiculous. Large foreign REITs are still allowed to buy. Foreign buying has *increased* in BC since the "ban" was announced.
@@CorporateShill66 Don't be surprised when they're up. I could care less either way. Lower prices means most homeowners can upgrade easier. The fundamentals lead to higher prices over the medium to longterm. Edmonton will more than likely be up over 10% from 2024-2025 and will continue rising along that pace. I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher. I can see all of Canada hit new highs within 5yrs, further highs 10yrs out. Let time play out and see where it goes.
@@CorporateShill66 I personally would avoid to not continue dooming on real estate. It will cost you a lot of opportunities. Buy when it makes sense to you. I quit listening to doomers and bought at the peak in 2017. The doomers all said those that bought then were going to get wrecked. Listing to doomers did cost me a few hundred k; ignoring them was a great decision. I own (bank owns) three places now. Plan to be debt free within 5yrs... 10yrs is more likely, but you never know. All the best!
You can still buy 5 houses in Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, and many other places for the price of 1 in HCOL areas. How many homes in HCOL areas in US can you buy for HCOL areas in Canada? No way it's 5-1; probably cost more in some of the US cities. Many places in Canada are still a bargain comparing to a bunch of other places. There is a reason people seek out Canada to live.
The leverage is what is great about real estate. Stocks are at all time highs as well. Both will trend up over time. Less, dealing with tenants and an older house can be a headache.. loser tenants make it a nightmare; they hurt the housing market for average tenants.
@@socialmedia-x8e that leverage goes both ways though, especially if someone buys with a minimum downpayment, plus add to that interest to be paid over the life of the mortgage, property taxes and the maintenance costs.
@@mushypork2132 Agreed.. I bought with 25% (dec 2016), 10% (2017 Oct) and 0% (2019 May)... Buy when it makes sense for you. Almost bought another in early 2020.. glad I didn't cause I got laid off (Government forced us out of work cause of CONVID) and tenants quit paying rent (I expected one to happen at some point, but not both)... burned through the $40k I had saved up. Almost used that $40k for a downpayment in 2020; that would've been interesting. :D Both rentals provide cashflow, and buying our primary was one of the better decisions we made. Missed many buying opportunities prior to that... but we have to live in the present cause it's a gift!
@@mushypork2132 For sure.. use it as a tool. Try not to be too big of an idiot with it; but YOLO? :D I bought a place with 0% down... lol Would've bought more places, but maxed out my ability to borrow. Buy if it makes sense to you; if not, don't buy it. Best to avoid being pressured into buying as well...
It would have helped if you included the BOC rate by months in relation to sales and inventory figures by months so that we could have observed the int rate impact better.
I have a feeling that Calgary Halifax and other regions in that category are not resilient, but will lag. So they will be resilient in 2025, but likely will see the same impact in 2026, as there was a lag going up there will be a lag going down.
We're at the start of a global economic slowdown, nobody's investing in foreign real estate and especially not in Canada, the world knows Canada's real estate market is hyper over priced.
Technical analysis on housing prices makes zero sense. It barely works with stocks, where hundreds of thousands of people are influencing the prices based on it. NO ONE buys real estate based on lines.
Jon hasn't figured this out yet and he is supposed to be the professional. The guy trots out a new chart every six months and says this technical analysis predicts the market. Not a single time has he been right.
My dear Canadians and foreign money launderers, please buy Canadian land and real estate and save the economy. We may end up living in Igloos, but please feed the banks, realtors, politicians, builders, lawyers, speculators etc.
I mean your comparison of mortgage to renting doesn’t really make sense. You’re comparing a $3400 mortgage on a $698k single family house to a $2100 rent payment on a 1 bedroom shoebox. This doesn’t even compare at all.
Haven’t watched this guys videos in a long time. Just here for the comments. When Jon’s basement renters are calling him out, you know it’s bad. He’s like the federal liberals and IS democrats. Just keep lying and eventually get exposed and everyone turns on you. Prices ticking up in my area. 2025 will bring slight increases. Is Jon still calling for 2018 prices? Haha
@@jonflynnI never understand your responses. They make no sense. It’s almost as if you’re replying to the wrong comment 😂. What info do I need to support what opinion? The fact that I think prices will tick up in 2025? Lmao. Well rates are coming down. No one building. Millennials want to buy. Prices have already corrected. A crash would have happened already. We already see upward pressure on freehold homes. Etc etc. Always deflect/ignore the meat of my statement but will talk about one small thing I say. Maybe you should be a lawyer or politician.
@@jonflynnyou’re wrong Jon! “Hi again. A crash is here. Until next time” buddy how can you be so obviously wrong/ been proven wrong already but still put out videos every week. Lmfao. You really are the liberal govt. proven to be wrong but double down and keep talking bullshit every week.
You might get away with talking like that to other people in your life but not me. If you don’t like it don’t watch. I don’t owe you any answers or explanations so suck it up and move on.
When the market is somehow erratic, or distorted due to conjunctural factors, including wars, geopolitical factors, tariffs, immigration, inflation, interest rate variation, supply of housing dependency on regulators, the historic data as an indicator of the market trend, is mitigated to the extent of the impact of such cojunctural variations , especially the erratic, or irrational ones. S, it is very difficult to see the way in which the market is going ro go.
@@johnnylongstocking128he’s been right all along. Thanks to him I can buy a home 100-150k cheaper at a much cheaper rate too! Anyone want proof, send me your linkedin! We can talk
@@I.H931 you are not very good at math. Prices are up since 2022 unless you cherry pick data points like Jon does. If you had bought a house in late 2022 you would have had a lower price and a lower interest rate. But instead you decided to listen to Jon and it's going to cost you.
@@johnnylongstocking128 Listening to doomers have made many people miss the boat. I used to listen to them; glad I quit listening to them. Listening to them cost me $300k ish. Glad I quit listening to them and bought... own (well the bank owns them - lolz) three now.
7 months ago i bought a couple duplexes for 320k. 1.5 years ago and 7 months ago same price and even 2.5 years ago same price. But strangely about 6 months avo the prices are crazy high. Randomly too. Duplex are now 380-410k now, and for beater properties. You know the trash ass "good deal" properties? Yah i was buying premium duplex that arent beat up for 320k i bought 4 of them and now all of the sudden trash duplex are 380 even into the 400k and i saw one for 520k but its not gunna sell i doubt it.
Just so you understand even more what I mean. A 4plex was 550k for a decent one. Now they are trying to get 650k lol rent is like 1300 these people are nuts. Why did the price go up randomly 6 month ago? The rent aren't higher. There isn't any comp sales to justify it either.
Bro it's at the point where all properties are trash. I am going to start building stuff. I don't want a ghetto 12 plex I want a premium 13 plex with rents 3k. This doesn't even exist. Only old and beat up properties for sale. It's better to have low cap rate I have come to understand. The low cap rate turns into high high high cap rates after some years. These high cap rates the ghetto property 1972 12 plex type deals, so bad.
Essentially, the properties real estate channels tell you to find, (good deals) are actually bad deals. And the bad deals they talk about (low cap) is good deals. They are really small investors most of them or they are leveraging a lot I think. Because why would I want a property that is stuck at the floor, the market rents, with tons of repairs? Just because it's a good ROI? Doesn't make sense. I'd rather have bad ROI but I was able to raise rents faster than the floor rents, and it becones 20 cap after 7 years.
I want to buy land and hold it. I have about 740k right now I can buy a big chunk of land downtown. But I don't want to pay tax while I hold it. K would have to hold it as raw land for 5 years b4 I can build and taxes for that long make no sense. I don't think you should have to pay taxes on land that doesn't generate income. I could bless my city but instead, someone else will buy, use debt and build something designed for poor people and that looks like trash.
I'm just going to do nothing until everyone is broke I think. I need to defy the government to do what I need to do so I will wait till bad economy I think.
Jon, I suggest you go back and watch videos you released back in 2023. You had forecasts of real estate crashing into 2024. You have been wrong, granted prices are marginally lower. You keep kicking the can down the road. Admit it, prices have not dropped as planned. You reference a CMHC article in this video in other videos you shoot down their credibility.
Have you gone back and watched his videos? At least as early as spring 2023 he’s been saying buying opportunities would start popping up by late 2024 into 2025
@@FlyingThruCanyons maybe go back a little further. He has said buying opportunities in late 2023 early 2024 and such spot on predictions such as 2017 or 2018 prices by the end of 2024.
Lolz... Most landlords will be fine. Most homes will reach new highs within 5yrs... Edmonton will surpass new highs next year and continue higher for a few years. Rents there are climbing. Where are rents dropping? Leverage has and will continue to make many people rich. 90% of millionaires did so through real estate. That will likely always be true. It was also true 100yrs ago.
The level of ignorance and misinformation from these professionals" is astounding. Comparing mortgage cost with rent cost with no regard of comparing the quality of accommodation and principal payments. You do know most people pay off their mortgage in 25-30 years, right? Most, just before it's time for worry free retirement.
Good point but I’ve done direct comparisons on homes and it’s still the same result. In my city you can rent a townhouse for $2400 or buy the same one for $600k. With 10% down that would be over $3000/month plus property tax which would put you around $3300-3400.
this guy is a joke. he’s been predicting a housing crash on and off for pretty much the last 3-4 years every year with his clickbait video titles. not once has he been right. using goofy charts and "technical analysis" ignoring simple economics like supply and demand imbalance. i used to think he knows because he "looks smart" but in reality all his videos are just blah blah blah for attention. he says what people want to hear, but i think he knows himself that it’s a lie. he could be a good politician.
To my own research In USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
I've remained in touch with a financial analyst since the start of my business. Amid today's dynamic market, the key difficulty is pinpointing the right time to buy or sell when dealing with trending stocks - a seemingly simple task but challenging in reality. My portfolio has grown by more than 5 figures within just a year, and i have entrusted my advisor with the task of determining entry and exit points.
Could you guide me on how to get in touch with your advisor? My funds are being eroded by inflation, and I'm seeking a more lucrative investment strategy to effectively utilize them.
'Sophia Maurine Lanting is the coach that guides me, you probably might have come across her before I found her through a Newsweek report. She's quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the information. I conducted my own research on google and your advisor appears to be highly skilled and knowledgeable. I've sent her an email and arranged a phone call.
Thank Jon for your insight. I always rely on your inputs rather than random realtor telling me NOW is the best time to buy. NOW remains constant.
Glad to help!
Great info. Inflation in Canada is starting to tick up again probably because of the dropping interest rates pushing the Canadian dollar lower which just hit a 5 yr low. A low CAD makes imports more expensive.
We have a weak economy and in particular a bleak outlook for Oil prices going into 2025. The real estate sector has not corrected properly yet. You really have to wonder when things will break.
inflation and CPI numbers have been faked for years now to play people however they want and you think this one is all of a sudden correct? lol
@@kevinn1158 an economy is made up of around 25 indicators. Currency is only one indicator.
@ all imports are impacted by the CAD. It’s a big deal.
Real state has been "resilient" because of the bank's "extend and pretend" loan policies. The market should have had a major reset by now but it's being carried by the banks not wanting to take hits to their balance sheets. This can only last so long though.
Nothing wrong with people "extending" their term. Mind you, it's THEIR decision, not the bank's. They are still building equity and don't have to cut back on other expenses if their employment prospects are good (like for 98% of the currently employed population)
@@tudvalstone Are you serious? The terms are 25 years not 90 years. lol you gotta be a realtor (or a banker). Can't make the payments? The bank should foreclose like they used to do.
This and the federal government rigging the market with bailouts.
When people extend amortization they spend money on wants rather than needs because they’ll have cash left over. If you can’t reasonably carry the mortgage in a reasonable amount of time then you’re living outside your means.
❤ I will vote for any Prime Minister that will connect CRA with the banks to verify income when purchasing a house or. Fully manipulate and Canadains are being robbed alive because of higher rent prices and mortgage payments..... I feel sad for those don't understand how this housing bubble is kept alive ....It's not fair for new generation of kids....😢
Thanks for keeping us all so well informed
There is nothing new. The employment rate has always been the anchor of housing prices. I remember in the 1989 housing crash. As unemployment went up, housing prices went south despite successive rate cuts.
This will be repeated shortly.
This makes sense, but many people are optimistic, with a new federal government taking over in a year. If they open upmour natural resources, that'll help the economy alot.
@@roseoverdose6451if a Federal election is called before Christmas, that will certainly bring back a boost to the economy, but sadly, it won't happen
@@BColdsport the election is only about a year away.
@@roseoverdose6451 and the next year is also when recession is expected to hit. Things will get really dicey even before election
@BColdsport with all due respect, the recession has been expected to hit for a year or two now already. Predictions mean nothing.
Excellent analysis as always Jon. Much appreciated!
My pleasure!
Been following this guy for couple years now.. not the average realtor this guys forecast back then is now on point..
Realtors would show up in the comments with negative remarks when Jon was advising wait to buy…
Where are they now…
They are laughing at how many clients and agents Jon has lost in the last year.
@@rob2039 still waiting for Jon's crash hey haha. Guy hasn't gotten a single prediction right and you still think he knows what he is talking about.
Thanks for the support
@@jonflynn you need all the support you can get after losing half your agents in a year.
Did he actually? @@johnnylongstocking128
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Insightful... I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
Thank you Mr. Flynn for the great report. Governments are deep in debt, people are deep in debt. This is starting to look more like the 80's and 90's. GST will rise to 8 or 9 percent in a year or two.
Yep, they will try to tax their way out of it.
Great video! You should really start showing all these charts normalized for population growth. That will show a more accurate picture.
Market manipulation should be illegal
Great job Jon! I really enjoy your videos!❤
Awesome thanks
Great Work, Jon!
Thanks!
2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Canadian real estate!
Congrats. Pretty sure CMHCs predictions are always spot on.
Ya remember when they said prices were going to drop 20% in 2020. Those were good times.
@@johnnylongstocking128 you are absolutely right, I relied on their 2020 forecasts and I took a bad decision that costs me a lot.
@@naimaan7194 people that rely on Jon's predictions are going to feel the same pain.
Hi Jon, i've been following you for about 6 months now and I just want to thank you for the quality of the content you are posting and the research that goes along with it. I am currently living in Montreal, and love the fact that you are covering most Canadian cities and not just the market you operate in. I have been saving up for quite some time now and resisting the temptation to jump in the market frenzy like everyone around me did, so I hope you are right about what's ahead of us 😂😂 This home buying recipe you came up with is very clever and kind of connects with Ray Dalio's economic cycles principles. Anyways Keep up the good work !
Given the current global geopolitical circumstances, tensions in Ukraine and West Asia (the Middle East), and regime change in Washington, there will be a ROCKY road ahead in the foreseeable future affecting the economies and inflation.
Food and Gas prices will be the FIRST indicators of what will be ahead.
Projection/Forecast: High Geopolitical Tensions/Turmoil, High Energy Prices, High Inflation, and you guess it right, the HIGHER RATES.
@@rob2039 Nuclear Holocaust? There is a new threshold that just passed.
It could have devastating consequences for the entire world.
Shows are starting soon!
Brace for fallouts!!!
Jon, thank you for all the work you put in to keep us informed! I appreciate you immensely!
No first time buyers can afford anything and with the 5 year government of Canada bond yield blowing through 3.3 percent today no speculators will be buying either so prices have to fall.
One thing I don't hear being mentioned, there is currently a foreign ban for 2 years, which expires soon. It could be extended, we don't know, but it is about to expire. There is also a factor of the weakening Canadian dollar, which means there is a dip in market price or a few percentages, which will drive prices of everyday items upwards, which means the Bank of Canada will either have to cut more rates to stimulate the market, or accept the inflation and thus destroy the value of debt, at which point they can stimulate more borrowing after some time. So all being said, I see the Real Estate market stagnant for a few years and we can see another rapid market correction like the one in 2016-2017, and prices rising by 20-30% within 4-6 years. There are other factors and a few scenarios, but I do not see this market moving up much in the near future, not in a meaningful way anyway.
Foreign ownership ban was extended until January 2027
@@Stormshfter Well, that is a huge component in this equation, thanks for the update. I think they were aware of the potential pressure that would create. I personally think the government and central bank are now pushing the narrative that interest rates may go higher because they want a certain percentage of people to take mortgages at these rates. If they don't they may need to add other measures to stimulate the economy. I guess we'll see.
They created so many loopholes that the laughable "foreign buyer ban" is not actually a foreign buyer ban at all. Read Better Dwelling's article "Canada Quietly Rolled Back Parts of Its Foreign Buyer Ban After Just 86 Days" (March 2023). TFWs & int'l students are still allowed to buy, which is ridiculous. Large foreign REITs are still allowed to buy. Foreign buying has *increased* in BC since the "ban" was announced.
House prices won't be going up for 10 years, mark my words. We are in the early 90s equivalent now.
Edmonton is going up.. All Canadian markets will hit new highs within 5yrs.
@ sounds like cope
@@CorporateShill66 Don't be surprised when they're up. I could care less either way. Lower prices means most homeowners can upgrade easier.
The fundamentals lead to higher prices over the medium to longterm. Edmonton will more than likely be up over 10% from 2024-2025 and will continue rising along that pace. I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher. I can see all of Canada hit new highs within 5yrs, further highs 10yrs out.
Let time play out and see where it goes.
@@CorporateShill66 I personally would avoid to not continue dooming on real estate. It will cost you a lot of opportunities. Buy when it makes sense to you. I quit listening to doomers and bought at the peak in 2017. The doomers all said those that bought then were going to get wrecked. Listing to doomers did cost me a few hundred k; ignoring them was a great decision. I own (bank owns) three places now. Plan to be debt free within 5yrs... 10yrs is more likely, but you never know.
All the best!
Real estate is not a good investment in Canada anymore you can buy 5 houses in the states for 1 in Canada.
You can still buy 5 houses in Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, and many other places for the price of 1 in HCOL areas. How many homes in HCOL areas in US can you buy for HCOL areas in Canada? No way it's 5-1; probably cost more in some of the US cities. Many places in Canada are still a bargain comparing to a bunch of other places. There is a reason people seek out Canada to live.
You have to be nuts to buy a rental property right now (or in the last 2 years). Stocks are a much better option. It’s not even close.
As a recovering landlord, I agree, the stress is not worth the hassle.
The leverage is what is great about real estate. Stocks are at all time highs as well. Both will trend up over time. Less, dealing with tenants and an older house can be a headache.. loser tenants make it a nightmare; they hurt the housing market for average tenants.
@@socialmedia-x8e that leverage goes both ways though, especially if someone buys with a minimum downpayment, plus add to that interest to be paid over the life of the mortgage, property taxes and the maintenance costs.
@@mushypork2132 Agreed.. I bought with 25% (dec 2016), 10% (2017 Oct) and 0% (2019 May)... Buy when it makes sense for you.
Almost bought another in early 2020.. glad I didn't cause I got laid off (Government forced us out of work cause of CONVID) and tenants quit paying rent (I expected one to happen at some point, but not both)... burned through the $40k I had saved up. Almost used that $40k for a downpayment in 2020; that would've been interesting. :D
Both rentals provide cashflow, and buying our primary was one of the better decisions we made. Missed many buying opportunities prior to that... but we have to live in the present cause it's a gift!
@@mushypork2132 For sure.. use it as a tool. Try not to be too big of an idiot with it; but YOLO? :D
I bought a place with 0% down... lol
Would've bought more places, but maxed out my ability to borrow. Buy if it makes sense to you; if not, don't buy it. Best to avoid being pressured into buying as well...
5:36 - $2,152 is the rent for a 2 bedroom OLD Apt in the GTA
It’s actually the average rent in Canada for all property types. Look it up on rentals.ca
@@jonflynn the average rental is not the same as the average purchase and you know that. Or at least you should.
It would have helped if you included the BOC rate by months in relation to sales and inventory figures by months so that we could have observed the int rate impact better.
Great information 👍
Glad you liked it
Cool backdrop. why is Calgary so resilient to mortgage arrears?
I have a feeling that Calgary Halifax and other regions in that category are not resilient, but will lag. So they will be resilient in 2025, but likely will see the same impact in 2026, as there was a lag going up there will be a lag going down.
No clue
Do you think the DR Horton stock drops in the US indicates a similar trend in Canada that buyers will wait for prices to drop?
Liberty over Tyranny 😉
You’re the 2nd person to notice, first was another realtor but also a subscriber to this channel.
Who are the buyers? Mom and Pop or Corporate and investors.
Mostly end users but still some investors lingering
House prices will only drop when unemployment explodes. Haven't seen that yet.
I agree
Hey Jon, I think you’re onto something this week. Keep up the great work.
Hi Jon Flynn. You are a pathetic little man making fake accounts.
With weaker CAD house prices should increase as foreigners will come to buy
What about the foreign buyer ban?
@ politicians can manipulate what they want as they do with interest rates or immigration
We're at the start of a global economic slowdown, nobody's investing in foreign real estate and especially not in Canada, the world knows Canada's real estate market is hyper over priced.
Technical analysis on housing prices makes zero sense. It barely works with stocks, where hundreds of thousands of people are influencing the prices based on it. NO ONE buys real estate based on lines.
Jon hasn't figured this out yet and he is supposed to be the professional. The guy trots out a new chart every six months and says this technical analysis predicts the market. Not a single time has he been right.
The real estate market makes zero sense
@@jonflynn your predictions make zero sense
Another one doing "technical chart analysis" of housing avg price as if it were a stock. No understanding of basic differences.
He trots out one of these technical analysis charts every six months. Each time he has been wrong.
You can’t make this up
@@Out5Here I can't wait to see the next chart that is for sure this time going to predict the market.
This guy always spilling lies with click bait videos
And is wrong every time he opens his mouth.
You must be a realtor.
@@buddybuddington7947 I am not
This funny to see that QC seems out of the big futur mess until now.
My dear Canadians and foreign money launderers, please buy Canadian land and real estate and save the economy. We may end up living in Igloos, but please feed the banks, realtors, politicians, builders, lawyers, speculators etc.
Well said.
igloos on a leasehold plots are asking for $350k right now
I mean your comparison of mortgage to renting doesn’t really make sense.
You’re comparing a $3400 mortgage on a $698k single family house to a $2100 rent payment on a 1 bedroom shoebox. This doesn’t even compare at all.
Haven’t watched this guys videos in a long time. Just here for the comments. When Jon’s basement renters are calling him out, you know it’s bad. He’s like the federal liberals and IS democrats. Just keep lying and eventually get exposed and everyone turns on you.
Prices ticking up in my area. 2025 will bring slight increases. Is Jon still calling for 2018 prices? Haha
That’s pretty vague info you’ve given to support your opinion. You should be a lawyer
@@jonflynnI never understand your responses. They make no sense. It’s almost as if you’re replying to the wrong comment 😂. What info do I need to support what opinion? The fact that I think prices will tick up in 2025? Lmao. Well rates are coming down. No one building. Millennials want to buy. Prices have already corrected. A crash would have happened already. We already see upward pressure on freehold homes. Etc etc. Always deflect/ignore the meat of my statement but will talk about one small thing I say. Maybe you should be a lawyer or politician.
@@jonflynnanswer my question. Are prices coming down to 2018? Why are your basement dwellers bitching to you in comments.
@@jonflynnyou’re wrong Jon! “Hi again. A crash is here. Until next time” buddy how can you be so obviously wrong/ been proven wrong already but still put out videos every week. Lmfao. You really are the liberal govt. proven to be wrong but double down and keep talking bullshit every week.
You might get away with talking like that to other people in your life but not me. If you don’t like it don’t watch. I don’t owe you any answers or explanations so suck it up and move on.
Credit card interest rates are starting to increase.
Credit card interest rates are increasing.
When the market is somehow erratic, or distorted due to conjunctural factors, including wars, geopolitical factors, tariffs, immigration, inflation, interest rate variation, supply of housing dependency on regulators, the historic data as an indicator of the market trend, is mitigated to the extent of the impact of such cojunctural variations , especially the erratic, or irrational ones. S, it is very difficult to see the way in which the market is going ro go.
True
Jon Flynn - the dude that forecasted 12 housing market crashes in 2024 lol
Every other realtor forecasted prices to the moon 10x in 2024
@@jonflynn just can't bring yourself to admiting you got it wrong. When do we get the 2018 prices you predicted.
@@johnnylongstocking128he’s been right all along. Thanks to him I can buy a home 100-150k cheaper at a much cheaper rate too! Anyone want proof, send me your linkedin! We can talk
@@I.H931 you are not very good at math. Prices are up since 2022 unless you cherry pick data points like Jon does. If you had bought a house in late 2022 you would have had a lower price and a lower interest rate. But instead you decided to listen to Jon and it's going to cost you.
@@johnnylongstocking128 Listening to doomers have made many people miss the boat. I used to listen to them; glad I quit listening to them. Listening to them cost me $300k ish. Glad I quit listening to them and bought... own (well the bank owns them - lolz) three now.
7 months ago i bought a couple duplexes for 320k. 1.5 years ago and 7 months ago same price and even 2.5 years ago same price. But strangely about 6 months avo the prices are crazy high. Randomly too. Duplex are now 380-410k now, and for beater properties. You know the trash ass "good deal" properties? Yah i was buying premium duplex that arent beat up for 320k i bought 4 of them and now all of the sudden trash duplex are 380 even into the 400k and i saw one for 520k but its not gunna sell i doubt it.
Just so you understand even more what I mean. A 4plex was 550k for a decent one. Now they are trying to get 650k lol rent is like 1300 these people are nuts. Why did the price go up randomly 6 month ago? The rent aren't higher. There isn't any comp sales to justify it either.
Bro it's at the point where all properties are trash. I am going to start building stuff. I don't want a ghetto 12 plex I want a premium 13 plex with rents 3k. This doesn't even exist. Only old and beat up properties for sale. It's better to have low cap rate I have come to understand. The low cap rate turns into high high high cap rates after some years. These high cap rates the ghetto property 1972 12 plex type deals, so bad.
Essentially, the properties real estate channels tell you to find, (good deals) are actually bad deals. And the bad deals they talk about (low cap) is good deals. They are really small investors most of them or they are leveraging a lot I think. Because why would I want a property that is stuck at the floor, the market rents, with tons of repairs? Just because it's a good ROI? Doesn't make sense. I'd rather have bad ROI but I was able to raise rents faster than the floor rents, and it becones 20 cap after 7 years.
I want to buy land and hold it. I have about 740k right now I can buy a big chunk of land downtown. But I don't want to pay tax while I hold it. K would have to hold it as raw land for 5 years b4 I can build and taxes for that long make no sense. I don't think you should have to pay taxes on land that doesn't generate income. I could bless my city but instead, someone else will buy, use debt and build something designed for poor people and that looks like trash.
I'm just going to do nothing until everyone is broke I think. I need to defy the government to do what I need to do so I will wait till bad economy I think.
Just waiting for them 3 bubbles to burst. Houses will likely drop in price by 40% to 50% .
Jon, I suggest you go back and watch videos you released back in 2023. You had forecasts of real estate crashing into 2024. You have been wrong, granted prices are marginally lower. You keep kicking the can down the road. Admit it, prices have not dropped as planned. You reference a CMHC article in this video in other videos you shoot down their credibility.
Even worse prices are up from last year. Jon has had such amazing predictions such as 2018 prices by now.
I’ve always said buying opportunities start end of 2024 into 2025. Looks like we’re on the right path.
@@jonflynn hahahahaha now you are just using vague terms to justify being wrong. When do we get the 2018 prices you predicted?
Have you gone back and watched his videos? At least as early as spring 2023 he’s been saying buying opportunities would start popping up by late 2024 into 2025
@@FlyingThruCanyons maybe go back a little further. He has said buying opportunities in late 2023 early 2024 and such spot on predictions such as 2017 or 2018 prices by the end of 2024.
Confirmed ! Jon pees sitting down !
how'd you know
Confirmed someone's diaper needs changing
Yes
Lets go crash bro!
Rent prices dropping, house prices dropping, and cost of ownership rising. That’s quite a combination for landlords….
But leverage!! 😂
@@maxpayne7419 go rent then, what’s the problem?😂
Lolz... Most landlords will be fine. Most homes will reach new highs within 5yrs... Edmonton will surpass new highs next year and continue higher for a few years. Rents there are climbing.
Where are rents dropping?
Leverage has and will continue to make many people rich. 90% of millionaires did so through real estate. That will likely always be true. It was also true 100yrs ago.
The level of ignorance and misinformation from these professionals" is astounding. Comparing mortgage cost with rent cost with no regard of comparing the quality of accommodation and principal payments. You do know most people pay off their mortgage in 25-30 years, right? Most, just before it's time for worry free retirement.
Jon isn't very smart or professional.
Good point but I’ve done direct comparisons on homes and it’s still the same result. In my city you can rent a townhouse for $2400 or buy the same one for $600k. With 10% down that would be over $3000/month plus property tax which would put you around $3300-3400.
@@jonflynn good job proving the original commentors point that you have zero understanding.
this guy is a joke. he’s been predicting a housing crash on and off for pretty much the last 3-4 years every year with his clickbait video titles. not once has he been right. using goofy charts and "technical analysis" ignoring simple economics like supply and demand imbalance.
i used to think he knows because he "looks smart" but in reality all his videos are just blah blah blah for attention. he says what people want to hear, but i think he knows himself that it’s a lie. he could be a good politician.
I can't wait to see his next chart that this time for sure is going to predict the market.