This happened with the 2004 housing boom - home prices were greatly inflated, meaning people couldn't sell later because they owed more on the house than they could sell for. I know quite a few people who bought then, thinking they were making a good investment to sell later, but it's taken until the COVID housing boom for the prices to come back to those original amounts.
To balance out your real estate holdings, I suggest investing in equities. If you're cautious, even the worst recessions can present fantastic buying opportunities. Additionally, volatility can produce fantastic short-term purchase and sell opportunities. This is not financial advise, but you should buy immediately away because money isn't king right now!
Yes I concur, I've been talking to an advisor for long now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market circumstances. I made more than $220K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having an investing counselor is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks a lot for sharing, I just looked her up on google and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We've set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know means of actualizing short term profit.
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
Yes, I've been in constant touch with a Financial Analyst for approximately 8 months. You know, these days it's really easy to buy into trending stocks, but the task is determining when to sell or keep. That's where my manager comes in, to help me with entry and exit points in the industries I'm engaged in. Can’t say I regret it, I’m 40% up in profits just in 5months with my initial capital of $160k.
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Elise Robinson for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
This recommendation is coming at the right time because i am literally grasping for straws atm! I verified her online and scheduled a phone call with her.
Really good show today! I'm old enough that I lived through all of those recessions and also the 70s inflation and 80s foreclosures.(Which I think mirrors this one). I bought my house in Abbotsford ,BC in 1996 for 128k in 1996, the fellow I bought it from bought it in 1981 for 112k. It only really went up with the rate of inflation. That's what a normal market was, and that's what we counted on for retirement. Nobody planned on their house being their entire retirement, whoever says that is lying or was planning on a humble last stage of life. My house is worth over a mil now, but I only planned on it being worth 400k tops. And that's the same expectation as all my peers.
Adjusted for inflation, my parents house is~450k in Toronto, yet it is 3x that even though it's the same house as in 2007 with a recent new roof and water tank/AC. This country is going the wrong way. Needs a new captain and crew. Sadly, none exists and all have sold out to corporations.
Sadly the truth is that all Canadians sat on their brains. Allowing things to get completely out of control. There should've been a national protest with closing down the economy, until the friggin' leaders changed the game plan. I'm talking about abolishing MONEY LAUNDERING AND CRAZY OVERBIDDING WARS. PURE FRIGGIN' GREED.
@@Gameless You overlooked the significant immigration growth and the global trend of populations migrating from rural areas to urban centers. When you factor in the slower rate of new construction, the threefold increase becomes quite apparent. However, I do agree that the country needs new leadership.
Yup. We must be the same age. Also I retired in 2018. I was hoping my house would be worth $500000 on 2030. It is over a million now. I would prefer it was in line with inflation and young people could by a house. The government saying we are relying on our houses for retirement is bull!!
I’m a new dad, I moved to the Bay Area a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? I heard Nvidia and AMD are strong buys.
Certain Ai companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I.
When ‘Jessica Lee Horst’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
another informative update from Jon Flynn. Many sellers in Canada think it's Jan/Feb 2022 with their asking prices. The Great Canadian Real Estate Train Wreck is coming to a neighborhood near you while the government and the BoC orchestrate a race to the bottom on interest rates. When you see mass layoffs, who's going to be buying homes?
I hear you! Unemployment is unreasonably high right now and it's not because of new Canadians. Companies are being cautious and not many job openings. Government is trying to prevent more of a recession and dropping rates. Expect the Cdn dollar to keep dropping against the usd.
Indeed, anyone who says rate cuts signal good times are foolish. Inflation is under control because the economy is contracting on a per capita basis. Unemployment is a lagging indicator.
Bang on the data doesn’t lie. I think why people are confused is because real estate doesn’t whip up and down like the stock market. It moves slower…so the downturn will likely be years. Great job Jon!
I put my house (in BC) for sale August 2022. Because I did "for sale by owner" the process was probably a little slower, the sale was finalized January 2023. I've been renting ever since. I'm hanging onto that bit of $$ waiting for a correction. I know many realtors, and they've all told me I'm wrong, and that there is also a supply issue. But I'm holding strong waiting for the dip. Previously people had been buying houses with little downpayment and had low interest rates. We have huge debt per capita. Those things have to come into play at some point here. I don't know how so much immigration or lack of supply will affect the dip, but personally I'm digging in, waiting it out. (Or, maybe I'll go retire in Indonesia, there's always a plan B.) Great video, as usual Jon. I appreciate your perspective.
i've heard of people doing that in vancouver during the great financial crisis... and they're still waiting for a correcting. now will be renting for life. good luck to you.
I like Steve Karrasch UA-cam for Fraservalley real estate too. The NDP are def on the side of renters rights. Lots are doing the same as you and using the interest to pay their rent. Certainly have a lot more info at our finger tips now. Cheers.
Regardless of the irrevocable clause, the brokerage shouldn't be so petty. If he/she is owed for staging/photography ask for that money back and let them go. That is a sure way to lose any future business or referral.
Thanks for the great research and commentary. In Haliburton, I have observed cottage properties sitting on the market and not moving. Some for more than 9 months. Some have changed agents 3 times.
Same in the Outaouais. Cottages and waterfront houses take forever to sell. Many go through multiple price reductions before they sell 9-12mo later. Vacant land market is completely dead. Only thing that still sells relatively well are detached houses close to core areas.
Excellent video Jon. In your next video can you show a long term chart of Canadian Average National Home Price with an overlay of Annual Immigration numbers into this country? It will be a clear visualization how an insanely excessive immigration policy (coupled with insanely low mortgage rates) over the last 15 years has helped artificially create this epic housing bubble.
you are correct. people who are making 90k they can get mortgage of 250k which is nothing. image what is going to happened when they have to renew. I guess next year housing will crash 20% or more.
@@jonflynnhey bro prices increased in many regions, might wanna stop with the doom and gloom bias that so heavily informs your perspective, you’re doing a disservice to many people, with more aggressive rate cuts, the real estate market will be going back up
@@TookAHikeNowWhat The properties has started to get multiple offers. People have been sitting with cash in their pockets ready to be thrown at downpayment. I guarantee you, couple of more ratecut announcements, and you are gonna see blind bidding of houses to the stratosphere.
I’ve sold my condo last year. I saw the number of cranes and came a conclusion, condos are going to take the biggest decline in this upcoming down cycle. With inventory hitting 10 year highs, I’m certain lower prices will follow. Just takes time. Every homeowner who’s feeling the pinch has a breaking point. They’ve come to the conclusion they have to sell but are prices way way high. Trying to maximize their bank account to pay for rent.
Something had to give as the lowest end of the housing market had fallen the least. Now its catching up to the mid and higher ranged properties that have fallen quite a bit more percentagrege wise.
@@IsmailFakri-j2e it took a while for the rate hikes to kick into households. Banks have been over accommodating and is now out of remedies. Homeowners are now finally come to concussion.
@@josephlim8941 Thanks God I didn't participate in this madness of greedy investment in the real estate market, thanks God again I wasn't part of the greed that caused real estate market to raise tremendously at unaffordable rate, lots of foreign investors were given green light tby the greedy Canadian politicians to invest in Canadian real estate market, lots of rental units are owned by foreign investors and big real estate companies, while the rest of Canadians followed suit to purchase properties, flip it, then sell it after few years of owning that property, thus causing residential real estate properties to raise in prices, the bubble was stretched and inflated by multiple directions..
Interesting and well researched comparative history of housing markets. There is clearly a correction underway in Canada atm. What is unclear and wont be until it's in the rear view mirror is the extent of the correction - a blip like 2008 or a bloodbath like 1990s. Apart from the obvious 'no one has a crystal ball', reason I say this is that 2 historical cycles isn't enough data to accurately predict a trend.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Realtors are a big part of the housing problem, they take too much in fees and you can negotiate it with them as there are no set laws regarding fees. Go with a 3 month contract too as its long enough. We were told 20 years ago the real estate market was going to crash...im still waiting.
Too many of those channels have been saying for years that the market is going to crash. They all have been wrong. Will some people be desperate to sell? Sure. But mostly, it's those people who overpaid by desperately over bidding on the property of their dreams. They stretched themselves too thin and are now panicking to sell like they panicked to buy. But there is no crash. Too many people are desperate for lodging. Prices may go down a bit, but no crash...
Really good info regarding the listing contract Jon. Steve Karrasch (Fraservalley) has similar views as you though he did say people may regret not purchasing this Dec as upward price preasures are still in play and there so much inventory currently prices are softening. He has also explained new rules from NDP favouring renters. Without resource extraction returning to stabilize our economy, I don't see how our economy recovers especially with the current leadership. In that I would like to be very very wrong.
Canada Economy = Canada Housing From Aug 1st, people can get 30 year mortgages with CMHC insurance!! Probably there will be 50 year mortgages next!! Helping people to pile on more and more debt. Govt. is protecting the home-owners. So it’s difficult for prices to come down. Unless people realize it’s gotten too risky now to buy houses at these prices. (Which are still high)
One major difference in today’s environment is that governments uniformly will not allow the markets to naturally balance themselves, whether that be the stock market or housing markets, because people will experience pain and politicians will lose votes. The only way to actually fix things is to let people that have ignorantly overextended themselves to feel their mistakes but it won’t happen and governments will bail people out.
Exactly right. Past performance is no guarantee of the future gains (or losses). All markets are rife with government manipulation like never before, and taking stupid risks is protected if not rewarded. Look at how major events have been shut down/unwound by exchanges recently - Gamestop, LME Nickel fiasco, etc. With regard to housing specifically, why is the demand side never discussed? With the boomers reaching end of life, housing was supposed crash through the floor because there'd be all this empty housing sitting around. How do ineffectual anti-money laundering and unprecedented immigration policies factor in? These UA-cam "gurus" have been throwing up thumbnails with clickbait titles and surprised soyboy faces for 10+ years now saying "the big crash is around the corner and my charts prove it". Still gets clicks, one assumes. I watch it for amusement now, to see the latest spin techniques. This system only ends when the guns that hold it up (and the people manning them) go away.
Eventually the U.S. stock market will crash worse than 1929 as no ponzi has lasted forever. In housing you can only lose some money but in the stock market if buying long on margin can lose everything in a small market correction of 50 percent.
It’s all about unemployment numbers. Canadas real estate is nearly 10% of GDP. When things grind to a halt in the housing economy. First there is going to be a major unemployment for workers building houses and then the agents, lawyers, mortgage, banks and of course the municipalities and all the fees they collect from a home sale as well. Unemployment will increase substantially and when you’re not working even zero rates can’t help. I’ve been through numerous housing and recessions since the early seventies and this will be the mother of all crashes not only that but it is going to take a generation to get back to Covid levels.
Not sure I completely agree. Unemployment is directly related to housing prices in a local area. You should specify its area specific. Secondly, half of the homes in Canada are mortgage free. On the other half that do have mortgages there is data that shows only 15-20% of those are highly leveraged against housing income. Those are the homes at risk. Things are a bit different now from historical home price drops. We have a major housing shortage, demand is high. There is no shortage of investors waiting on the sidelines for the housing numbers to make sense to jump in. Are house prices going to drop, yes, will it be significant, that depends on the area. There is no shortage of videos titled with the word “crash”. The economy has many different moving parts. I also feel home ownership for young Canadians is currently unattainable but I do not see major price drops ahead, demand is simply at record historical levels. Price drops will be muted. Sorry folks, that’s reality. High demand does not bring low prices.
I guess it comes down to how far the prices will drop. Personally I think a North America will end up close to what Japan, Italy, Spain, have experienced. Especially now that there are so many countries abandoning the US dollar and moving towards the BRICS solution for transaction and trade. This is a bigger topic than the surface discussion we are engaged in here.
Brics is a joke. The usa dollar is losing value but it's still the least inflated in the world. Those countries all have worthless currencies and hate eachoth. Jp morgan made the name brics. They added sa because they needed the s. It's a complete joke they don't have a currencie.
The downturn has already begun a few months ago, just waiting on people to wake up and realize it. Once these homes are in dire need of selling they will start dropping more. Takes time for sure
Mass layoffs result in fewer buyers signing 30-year mortgages. Some semblance of job security, crucial for buying a home, is significantly undermined nowadays by fears of AI. Diminished purchasing power and higher insurance costs for older homes further discourage young people from entering the housing market.
Hey Jon, does it really put a buyer at a disadvantage to push to not sign an Exclusivity Agreement with Agent? It's not like they are a fiduciary, why should I give them that Exclusivity? Why not engage multiple agents?
Thanks for that useful tip at the beginning Jon. It’s certainly annoying if the brokerage holds you at ransom if because of any reason you wanna cancel
Do you think they will connect CRA with the mortgage verification? If yes, then when? and what impact it would have on the housing market. Will be great if you make a video on that,
I think the listing should be revocable as a default rule, or the general rule. And, allowing the parties to make it irrevocable.if they choose to do so. That irrevocability as a rule, and the revocability as an exception, or as an option, will be a source of infinite legal disputes.the parties, the real estate agents, and brokers, are not legally trained to draft a valid revocation clause.
The interesting period is the late 1970s when Canadian Bank got into trouble (most notably CIBC). The chart doesn't show it well but house prices boomed with interest rates being less than inflation (negative real rates) in late 70s. The house price dip before the 1980 recession was longer and larger adjusted for inflation (mortgage rates peaked August 1981 at 21.75%.) I wonder if high inflation is what the BOC and FED want and our current situation mirrors the late 70s. Inflation to the rescue (of the banks)?
I think our house price went up 500% since 2003. It's honestly stupid and really harmful for the overall economy. People are spending way too much of their incomes on their mortgages and many haven't even renewed yet. These higher rates will continue to work its way through the economy for the next 18-24 months. I think it's time the gov't tax investors at a commercial rate if they are using a property as a rental. Then get rid of the land transfer taxes on endusers. Also drop the development fees quite a bit to encourage building and lower prices. And yes, prices roll over as the int rates roll over because the GDI ie incomes are rolling over. Nobody can buy. And once they see prices dropping, they don't want to be the person catching the falling knife. Anyways, great charts but make sure you put a long term trend line to show that when we actually have a correction, it over corrects by 5-8%. I think we are still 22-25% above the average trend line now.
The corruption that runs through this administration is getting scarier. I feel for the disabilities who are not getting the help they deserve. Anyone who is not investing now is missing a tremendous opportunity. Imagine investing $2,000 and receiving $10,020.
Similar crappy thing happened to me when I put an offer down on a new house 12 yrs ago in Lake Erie area. Scummy realtor (& builder) pressured me to sign purchase agreement with condition that if deal didn't close, realtor would get 2% commission on the sale of my property for the next 120 days. Unfortunately, I didn't notice this condition until after signing … I was so pissed off I let my purchase agreement lapse, waited 120 days, then the next day, re-submitted same purchase agreement on the same property with another agent. Builder told me me he didn't let the realtor know, he "didn't want to hurt his feelings." WTH crazy world of real estate.
I noticed this too. Market goes down so some put their prices up? Give your head a shake. Price according to sold data not delusional asking prices in your area. Get out before everyone runs for the exit. Mean reversion is happening
interesting patterns in both countries and thanks for pulling this together. I do think there is a bit of a wild card in the Canadian context which makes it a unique compared to the US as well as previous Canadian trends historically and that's immigration. With record highs in the number of people entering Canada, does that not introduce a new factor that prop up demand and mitigate a downturn in Canada?
Jon, once again great video. Can you briefly explain why you feel if interest rates fall home prices won’t go up. I appreciate the historical charts that show how house prices will fall even as interest rates fall. To me it’s basic math if the numbers make sense even investors will jump in and prices overall would go up.
Because our economy is in the toilet and will only get worse for the next few years. No point in “investing” if there is no economy or employment to support high rents
Hard to argue with the numbers when they are spelled out accurately. I can’t C that I’m shocked, I thought it was gonna happen earlier than this year or next year.
In Sudbury there is barely any listings so the very few that come on the market are doing very well. There is very little new construction here so people have to depend on resale.
I’m noticing a handful of new listings, almost daily.. That’s interesting for the end of August I think.. And starters, for young families - wow, some $340 even..
I’m on waterfront.. An outstanding property just down the street listed at $825k has been sitting for months.. oh.. I’m starting to see a change…. Cheers, 😊
Ive been hearing about a bubble burst in Canada since 2010. Thats 14 years now. Reality is we are not USA. Market is chronically in a housing shortage and we did not over build in the boom years like the US did and experienced even faster population growth... I do believe prices CAN fall here too by substantial amounts up to a point with enough rise in unemployment and if rates do stay higher for longer and ppl cant afford to bid market as high. But an outright crash in prices of very high significance to me remains unlikely. Too much fundamental demand. Surge in rates may have made it dormant but its there providing a floor on prices. A 15% or 20% fall worse case scenario I would not be shocked but I dont know that Id call that a bubble burst, more like a major pullback. 40% to 50% like in 2007 to 2012 in USA like a real burst? I find it super unlikely
Jon, thanks for your video. Always enjoy your point of view and data. I don’t really agree with many aspects of your data. Housing prices are directly impacted by unemployment in a specific area. Take parts of Alberta vs other areas with higher unemployment as an example. Things are different now vs all the historical housing price drops you show in your data. Housing demand in Canada is at an all time high, high demand does not align with high price drops ahead. The economy has many moving parts and things are different now. We have a fast growing population and many investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting to scoop up housing when the numbers make sense. To summarize, price drops will be muted and area specific. Future housing prices should not be be compared to historical events. It’s over simplified when you make those types of references.
As a very long term broker in Toronto, I have NEVER put in more than 60 days for expiry of a listing, I explain to owners I'm very confident if by any chance the property doesn't sell, they will see I have done everything asked, & I have never lost a listing that way.
On your data, the big difference was Canada imported massive immigration of 1million a year since 2022 so that will be a huge variable that will determined the housing prices compare to previous 17 year cycle! Canada short term solution from recession and immiment housing crisis are huge immigration. Now that same solution will take its toll on social infrastructure! But I guess Canadian government immediate attention was economic recession thus the immigration policy solution!
That desperate move won't save anyone. The immigrants will continue to rent 5 families to a house. High unemployment means noone gets a decent job means no qualifications for mortgages. Mortgage fraud will be there of course, but in insignificant numbers.
There was a lot wrong with his data. It was literally him picking out the last 34 years and saying every 17 years there is a downturn. He didn't mention any factors or information to what causes these things to happen. Like yes possibly during the renewal of the 2% mortgages many people won't qualify which could drop the value of houses. He didn't even say that. He said based on the past and it being 17 years we know the future. This guy is full of crap.
Different parts of the country are more inflated than others. So, is it reasonable to say this will impact people differently depending on area or country???
People that over paid for housing will loose there shirt , this all started with way to many migrants allowed into Canada , there was a sudden shortage of housing , But I guess that is what the young people wanted ?
Immigration does have a certain effect, but it wasn't the driver really. Most immigrants in Canada, in the last 5-6 years, are coming from poor undeveloped countries. That's a whole different topic. But, by and large, they have no money to buy anything. There are some scammers out there, and some insane 5-10ish joint mortgage applications, but those numbers were not that high to bring about what we are having today, real estate wise.
Prices in big developing cities always goes up as the cities develop .it's the natural trend and it's very right and normal.7 to 10 percent rise is normal as cities develop.we are seeing this since 30 years.for example the homes in Vancouver are more expensive than surrey .so as surrey develop people will have to move to lower cheaper areas in canada.as big cities develop new people move to cheaper areas .homes will never be cheap in bigger cities as they develop,and this is natural.
Well the math is pretty garbage for real estate as an investment right now. I sold a 1 bedroom condo for 535gs in 2022 and the most it could get for rent was 2800$. The mortgage on 500k with 550$ condo fees, taxes and maintenance would be almost 6k a month. Better to take the extra 3k each month and put it in the markets. Ive stopped investigating in real estate and am building a dividend portfolio across energy, food and basic necessities.
We have been talking about the market crashing since 2011. Some people have waited just as long to buy a house and still waiting…now in a tent. Is the crash really going to be here?
Well, it looks like SOMETHING will happen. Situation today is unheard of. It is just not normal! Of course it will pop. Now, whether it's an apocalyptical crash or a some notable correction, is yet to be seen. Stay out of debt. That is the most important thing now. That house mortgage debt is going to consume people in days ahead of us. Personally, I find it ridiculous to jump into such a debt (it shows some kind of deficit in critical thinking), unless one sees the whole point of life in toiling away to pay for something you won't even get to enjoy in. There ARE other countries on across the globe, if one really has an itch of spending money on a home. Way cheaper, way more interesting (Cyprus, Mauritius, Iceland, Malta...to name a few), and something that will actually enrich your earthly life.
@@Nemija But you can't change cultures and countries as casually as changing your clothes. Not everyone wants to be a global economic migrant. Such factors as friends and family, the land and its history and culture, personal memories, etc, come into play here, surely?
@@TT-fq7pl Agreed. That's why I mentioned if one really has an itch to buy. Stay with the family, and enjoy life. Only up until some 60-70 years ago, families lived TOGETHER (both parents, kids, and the grandkids). If we can learn anything from this laughable mental institution of today, we're living in, it is to bring back the family communities. We're so much cornered, that we're practically forced to resort to one normal thing that kept this country so beautiful and worth living.
@@Nemija Well, there's plenty of things about the past that appear to be gone for good -- especially a widespread sense of personal responsibility for our actions. The challenge, as you say, is to try not to let the whole danged mess make us more miserable than we need to be. Life is hard enough as it is.
I think it's inevitable when people start to sell their houses at massive scale at the same time, when they see no future here, it will create panic to sell at the same time..
There seems to be some collusion going on where I am from with house prices actually rising. Four houses listed for the same price this week with only one of those houses maybe being worth asking.
our 2008 downturn may have been cut short by then finance minister flaherty playing with mortgages and allowing 40 year amortization, which helped juice the market
Investors are teying panic selling properties but not getting buyers at rhe listed price. Also end user property owners whom had purchased during covid or post covid time, will be forced to foreclosure.
Agree with most assertions presented here. There is one variable though that was missing in the previous cycles. In the last couple of years we have added 5M residents, which are going to become citizens which are going to bring their parents with them (yep get ready for another 5M-10M increase in the Canadian population) - all of those people will need housing, this by itself should 'soften' the hard landing to some extend (it is not going to make life easier on anyone ... more misery for longer time for all as the affordability will continue to be problematic). Another observation I have is - the price drops (since the peak) presented here are MUCH worst while adjusting for the inflation. ( $1M in 2021 =! $1M in 2024 ).
I can’t stand the realtors who say there’s no better time to buy, stop waiting on the side line and help me pay off my house debt! Love your videos for being truthful with what’s happening
This happened with the 2004 housing boom - home prices were greatly inflated, meaning people couldn't sell later because they owed more on the house than they could sell for. I know quite a few people who bought then, thinking they were making a good investment to sell later, but it's taken until the COVID housing boom for the prices to come back to those original amounts.
To balance out your real estate holdings, I suggest investing in equities. If you're cautious, even the worst recessions can present fantastic buying opportunities. Additionally, volatility can produce fantastic short-term purchase and sell opportunities. This is not financial advise, but you should buy immediately away because money isn't king right now!
Yes I concur, I've been talking to an advisor for long now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market circumstances. I made more than $220K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having an investing counselor is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
Mind if I ask you to point at how to reach this particular person assisting you? Seems you've figured it all out unlike the rest of us.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks a lot for sharing, I just looked her up on google and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Yeah that’s craziness. How are first time buyers ever going to afford a place
My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We've set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know means of actualizing short term profit.
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
Yes, I've been in constant touch with a Financial Analyst for approximately 8 months. You know, these days it's really easy to buy into trending stocks, but the task is determining when to sell or keep. That's where my manager comes in, to help me with entry and exit points in the industries I'm engaged in. Can’t say I regret it, I’m 40% up in profits just in 5months with my initial capital of $160k.
Smart, If i wanted to do the same with my retirement funds too, how do i get started trading?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Elise Robinson for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
This recommendation is coming at the right time because i am literally grasping for straws atm! I verified her online and scheduled a phone call with her.
Really good show today!
I'm old enough that I lived through all of those recessions and also the 70s inflation and 80s foreclosures.(Which I think mirrors this one).
I bought my house in Abbotsford ,BC in 1996 for 128k in 1996, the fellow I bought it from bought it in 1981 for 112k. It only really went up with the rate of inflation.
That's what a normal market was, and that's what we counted on for retirement.
Nobody planned on their house being their entire retirement, whoever says that is lying or was planning on a humble last stage of life.
My house is worth over a mil now, but I only planned on it being worth 400k tops.
And that's the same expectation as all my peers.
Adjusted for inflation, my parents house is~450k in Toronto, yet it is 3x that even though it's the same house as in 2007 with a recent new roof and water tank/AC. This country is going the wrong way. Needs a new captain and crew. Sadly, none exists and all have sold out to corporations.
Sadly the truth is that all Canadians sat on their brains. Allowing things to get completely out of control. There should've been a national protest with closing down the economy, until the friggin' leaders changed the game plan.
I'm talking about abolishing MONEY LAUNDERING AND CRAZY OVERBIDDING WARS. PURE FRIGGIN' GREED.
@@Gameless Agreed. No political party seems to be on the side of the average person. Everything is done for corporate and other types of criminals.
@@Gameless You overlooked the significant immigration growth and the global trend of populations migrating from rural areas to urban centers. When you factor in the slower rate of new construction, the threefold increase becomes quite apparent. However, I do agree that the country needs new leadership.
Yup. We must be the same age. Also I retired in 2018. I was hoping my house would be worth $500000 on 2030. It is over a million now. I would prefer it was in line with inflation and young people could by a house. The government saying we are relying on our houses for retirement is bull!!
I’m a new dad, I moved to the Bay Area a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? I heard Nvidia and AMD are strong buys.
it’s a personal decision, but according to Forbes, housing activities will remain stagnant for the most part of the year, so maybe hold off a little.
Certain Ai companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I.
this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?
When ‘Jessica Lee Horst’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
another informative update from Jon Flynn. Many sellers in Canada think it's Jan/Feb 2022 with their asking prices. The Great Canadian Real Estate Train Wreck is coming to a neighborhood near you while the government and the BoC orchestrate a race to the bottom on interest rates. When you see mass layoffs, who's going to be buying homes?
rate cuts are to boost a sagging economy to avoid a recession... not because inflation is under control like the politicians say.
I hear you! Unemployment is unreasonably high right now and it's not because of new Canadians. Companies are being cautious and not many job openings.
Government is trying to prevent more of a recession and dropping rates.
Expect the Cdn dollar to keep dropping against the usd.
Unemployment is unreasonably high right now? Really? Where in Canada do you live?
Indeed, anyone who says rate cuts signal good times are foolish. Inflation is under control because the economy is contracting on a per capita basis. Unemployment is a lagging indicator.
They cut rates for COVID to prematurely boost the economy. Expect more stagflation and significant wealth inequality.
Just like his dad, Trudeau has screwed this country by lying to all Canadians.
Thank you Mr. Flynn for keeping us so well informed with the real estate market. God bless you.
Bang on the data doesn’t lie. I think why people are confused is because real estate doesn’t whip up and down like the stock market. It moves slower…so the downturn will likely be years. Great job Jon!
I put my house (in BC) for sale August 2022. Because I did "for sale by owner" the process was probably a little slower, the sale was finalized January 2023. I've been renting ever since. I'm hanging onto that bit of $$ waiting for a correction. I know many realtors, and they've all told me I'm wrong, and that there is also a supply issue. But I'm holding strong waiting for the dip. Previously people had been buying houses with little downpayment and had low interest rates. We have huge debt per capita. Those things have to come into play at some point here. I don't know how so much immigration or lack of supply will affect the dip, but personally I'm digging in, waiting it out. (Or, maybe I'll go retire in Indonesia, there's always a plan B.) Great video, as usual Jon. I appreciate your perspective.
i've heard of people doing that in vancouver during the great financial crisis... and they're still waiting for a correcting. now will be renting for life. good luck to you.
@@roseoverdose6451 "i've heard of people doing that in vancouver..." well then it must be true, right?
I like Steve Karrasch UA-cam for Fraservalley real estate too. The NDP are def on the side of renters rights. Lots are doing the same as you and using the interest to pay their rent. Certainly have a lot more info at our finger tips now. Cheers.
@@roseoverdose6451
There are other cities, towns and provinces in Canada, right?
Plus, the guy put it down loud and clear: Indonesia as the plan B.
YOLO bet
Regardless of the irrevocable clause, the brokerage shouldn't be so petty. If he/she is owed for staging/photography ask for that money back and let them go. That is a sure way to lose any future business or referral.
Well said
Thanks for the great research and commentary. In Haliburton, I have observed cottage properties sitting on the market and not moving. Some for more than 9 months. Some have changed agents 3 times.
@musicbygoldenj ,....Thanks for sharing. Maybe the cottage markets are a harbinger for Ontario detached and condo?
Same in the Outaouais. Cottages and waterfront houses take forever to sell. Many go through multiple price reductions before they sell 9-12mo later. Vacant land market is completely dead. Only thing that still sells relatively well are detached houses close to core areas.
You're terrific Jon, appreciate the effort you put into providing this information, very valuable.
I can't believe the amount of work that you must put in your channel. Thank you for your research-based observations and conclusions. So refreshing!
Much appreciated thanks.
U r one of the best agent telling true knowledge of housing. Great episode
Excellent video Jon. In your next video can you show a long term chart of Canadian Average National Home Price with an overlay of Annual Immigration numbers into this country? It will be a clear visualization how an insanely excessive immigration policy (coupled with insanely low mortgage rates) over the last 15 years has helped artificially create this epic housing bubble.
you are correct. people who are making 90k they can get mortgage of 250k which is nothing. image what is going to happened when they have to renew. I guess next year housing will crash 20% or more.
They'll be wearing leg irons and chains and be slaves for life to their mortgage.
Another excellent clip with facts and detailed info
Nothing to say! You said it all. Thanks for the great work. I agree 100%. Keep the good work up 😊
We are currently in a depression. Have been for over a year. The recession was in 2022.
Possibly
@@jonflynnhey bro prices increased in many regions, might wanna stop with the doom and gloom bias that so heavily informs your perspective, you’re doing a disservice to many people, with more aggressive rate cuts, the real estate market will be going back up
Where did the media and general public get the idea that rate cuts are a positive indicator?
Of course it's positive that inflation went down.
Then why do you see heavy activity in the market post rate cuts?
The Liberal government has been out talking about how great it is
@@TookAHikeNowWhat The properties has started to get multiple offers. People have been sitting with cash in their pockets ready to be thrown at downpayment. I guarantee you, couple of more ratecut announcements, and you are gonna see blind bidding of houses to the stratosphere.
@@rometimed1382 what would you believe otherwise?
why would any seller sign for longer than 3 months and then roll it? 6-9 months is nuts
Thank you!
Excellent presentation!
Wow. I just refreshed and your comments went from 50 down to 42.
UA-cam autodeleting comments
Free speech doesn't exist anymore, censor what you don't want and your agenda is set.
I’ve sold my condo last year. I saw the number of cranes and came a conclusion, condos are going to take the biggest decline in this upcoming down cycle. With inventory hitting 10 year highs, I’m certain lower prices will follow. Just takes time. Every homeowner who’s feeling the pinch has a breaking point. They’ve come to the conclusion they have to sell but are prices way way high. Trying to maximize their bank account to pay for rent.
Very true, thanks for the comment
Something had to give as the lowest end of the housing market had fallen the least. Now its catching up to the mid and higher ranged properties that have fallen quite a bit more percentagrege wise.
The problem is if all people start to sell at the same time not many people will buy, and house prices will drop..
@@IsmailFakri-j2e it took a while for the rate hikes to kick into households. Banks have been over accommodating and is now out of remedies. Homeowners are now finally come to concussion.
@@josephlim8941 Thanks God I didn't participate in this madness of greedy investment in the real estate market, thanks God again I wasn't part of the greed that caused real estate market to raise tremendously at unaffordable rate, lots of foreign investors were given green light tby the greedy Canadian politicians to invest in Canadian real estate market, lots of rental units are owned by foreign investors and big real estate companies, while the rest of Canadians followed suit to purchase properties, flip it, then sell it after few years of owning that property, thus causing residential real estate properties to raise in prices, the bubble was stretched and inflated by multiple directions..
Interesting and well researched comparative history of housing markets. There is clearly a correction underway in Canada atm. What is unclear and wont be until it's in the rear view mirror is the extent of the correction - a blip like 2008 or a bloodbath like 1990s. Apart from the obvious 'no one has a crystal ball', reason I say this is that 2 historical cycles isn't enough data to accurately predict a trend.
Great as always. Thank you so very much..!!!
Great report. Thank you
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Realtors are a big part of the housing problem, they take too much in fees and you can negotiate it with them as there are no set laws regarding fees. Go with a 3 month contract too as its long enough. We were told 20 years ago the real estate market was going to crash...im still waiting.
Too many of those channels have been saying for years that the market is going to crash. They all have been wrong. Will some people be desperate to sell? Sure. But mostly, it's those people who overpaid by desperately over bidding on the property of their dreams. They stretched themselves too thin and are now panicking to sell like they panicked to buy. But there is no crash. Too many people are desperate for lodging. Prices may go down a bit, but no crash...
Thanks for the comment
Wow, maybe one of the few honest agent brokers left.
100% spot on analysis, Jon.
Well done!
Thank you John once again for truthful fact based reporting not wishful deception. FOMO what a cruel tactic the industry has been using.
Really good info regarding the listing contract Jon. Steve Karrasch (Fraservalley) has similar views as you though he did say people may regret not purchasing this Dec as upward price preasures are still in play and there so much inventory currently prices are softening. He has also explained new rules from NDP favouring renters. Without resource extraction returning to stabilize our economy, I don't see how our economy recovers especially with the current leadership. In that I would like to be very very wrong.
Canada Economy = Canada Housing
From Aug 1st, people can get 30 year mortgages with CMHC insurance!!
Probably there will be 50 year mortgages next!! Helping people to pile on more and more debt.
Govt. is protecting the home-owners. So it’s difficult for prices to come down.
Unless people realize it’s gotten too risky now to buy houses at these prices. (Which are still high)
One major difference in today’s environment is that governments uniformly will not allow the markets to naturally balance themselves, whether that be the stock market or housing markets, because people will experience pain and politicians will lose votes. The only way to actually fix things is to let people that have ignorantly overextended themselves to feel their mistakes but it won’t happen and governments will bail people out.
Exactly right. Past performance is no guarantee of the future gains (or losses). All markets are rife with government manipulation like never before, and taking stupid risks is protected if not rewarded. Look at how major events have been shut down/unwound by exchanges recently - Gamestop, LME Nickel fiasco, etc.
With regard to housing specifically, why is the demand side never discussed? With the boomers reaching end of life, housing was supposed crash through the floor because there'd be all this empty housing sitting around. How do ineffectual anti-money laundering and unprecedented immigration policies factor in?
These UA-cam "gurus" have been throwing up thumbnails with clickbait titles and surprised soyboy faces for 10+ years now saying "the big crash is around the corner and my charts prove it". Still gets clicks, one assumes. I watch it for amusement now, to see the latest spin techniques.
This system only ends when the guns that hold it up (and the people manning them) go away.
And yet prices continue to come down. If you think the market can’t fail then go all in if you have all the answers
Eventually the U.S. stock market will crash worse than 1929 as no ponzi has lasted forever. In housing you can only lose some money but in the stock market if buying long on margin can lose everything in a small market correction of 50 percent.
It’s all about unemployment numbers. Canadas real estate is nearly 10% of GDP. When things grind to a halt in the housing economy. First there is going to be a major unemployment for workers building houses and then the agents, lawyers, mortgage, banks and of course the municipalities and all the fees they collect from a home sale as well. Unemployment will increase substantially and when you’re not working even zero rates can’t help. I’ve been through numerous housing and recessions since the early seventies and this will be the mother of all crashes not only that but it is going to take a generation to get back to Covid levels.
Well if you don't save for a rainy day then you're screwed. They made their money.
Don't threaten me with a good time
Canadian RE is easy 30% of GDP
Not sure I completely agree. Unemployment is directly related to housing prices in a local area. You should specify its area specific. Secondly, half of the homes in Canada are mortgage free. On the other half that do have mortgages there is data that shows only 15-20% of those are highly leveraged against housing income. Those are the homes at risk. Things are a bit different now from historical home price drops. We have a major housing shortage, demand is high. There is no shortage of investors waiting on the sidelines for the housing numbers to make sense to jump in. Are house prices going to drop, yes, will it be significant, that depends on the area. There is no shortage of videos titled with the word “crash”. The economy has many different moving parts. I also feel home ownership for young Canadians is currently unattainable but I do not see major price drops ahead, demand is simply at record historical levels. Price drops will be muted. Sorry folks, that’s reality. High demand does not bring low prices.
I guess it comes down to how far the prices will drop. Personally I think a North America will end up close to what Japan, Italy, Spain, have experienced. Especially now that there are so many countries abandoning the US dollar and moving towards the BRICS solution for transaction and trade. This is a bigger topic than the surface discussion we are engaged in here.
Brics is a joke. The usa dollar is losing value but it's still the least inflated in the world. Those countries all have worthless currencies and hate eachoth. Jp morgan made the name brics. They added sa because they needed the s. It's a complete joke they don't have a currencie.
Wonderful video explaining the financial data.
The downturn has already begun a few months ago, just waiting on people to wake up and realize it. Once these homes are in dire need of selling they will start dropping more. Takes time for sure
Great job!
Mass layoffs result in fewer buyers signing 30-year mortgages. Some semblance of job security, crucial for buying a home, is significantly undermined nowadays by fears of AI.
Diminished purchasing power and higher insurance costs for older homes further discourage young people from entering the housing market.
Hey Jon, does it really put a buyer at a disadvantage to push to not sign an Exclusivity Agreement with Agent? It's not like they are a fiduciary, why should I give them that Exclusivity? Why not engage multiple agents?
Think about it. Do you like to work for free? Why not have 1000 agents working for you, all for free?
Thanks for that useful tip at the beginning Jon. It’s certainly annoying if the brokerage holds you at ransom if because of any reason you wanna cancel
Glad it was helpful!
Do you think they will connect CRA with the mortgage verification?
If yes, then when? and what impact it would have on the housing market.
Will be great if you make a video on that,
Great video Jon! It’s amazing how many people will still choose to ignore this.
It's a simple contract to read, why would you take a irrevocable agreement? People do your homework!
Rates cut follows prices to fall. Because bac only cut when there is a problem in the economy.
I don’t see how prices will go down when we have more and more people and the same number of houses…
Soon you will be enlightened.
Thanks for a great video!
I bet there will be deals by winter, if people have to sell,they will welcome offers.
The reality of burden of homeownership from the recent overpriced bubble will counter FOMO eventually
It's been months and no bubble burst yet bro. In fact at only 4 mths supply, we're not even close.
'08 diff is Con gov't with many economic background peeps and a strong Canadian economy. Current gov't is def not that.
Shite is just starting to hit the fan!
Grabbing my bag of popcorn and start watching the show..LETS MAKE IT A BIG ONE...
@@mikebowers7719 😛
I think the listing should be revocable as a default rule, or the general rule. And, allowing the parties to make it irrevocable.if they choose to do so. That irrevocability as a rule, and the revocability as an exception, or as an option, will be a source of infinite legal disputes.the parties, the real estate agents, and brokers, are not legally trained to draft a valid revocation clause.
The interesting period is the late 1970s when Canadian Bank got into trouble (most notably CIBC). The chart doesn't show it well but house prices boomed with interest rates being less than inflation (negative real rates) in late 70s. The house price dip before the 1980 recession was longer and larger adjusted for inflation (mortgage rates peaked August 1981 at 21.75%.) I wonder if high inflation is what the BOC and FED want and our current situation mirrors the late 70s.
Inflation to the rescue (of the banks)?
Thank you
I think our house price went up 500% since 2003. It's honestly stupid and really harmful for the overall economy. People are spending way too much of their incomes on their mortgages and many haven't even renewed yet. These higher rates will continue to work its way through the economy for the next 18-24 months.
I think it's time the gov't tax investors at a commercial rate if they are using a property as a rental. Then get rid of the land transfer taxes on endusers. Also drop the development fees quite a bit to encourage building and lower prices.
And yes, prices roll over as the int rates roll over because the GDI ie incomes are rolling over. Nobody can buy. And once they see prices dropping, they don't want to be the person catching the falling knife.
Anyways, great charts but make sure you put a long term trend line to show that when we actually have a correction, it over corrects by 5-8%. I think we are still 22-25% above the average trend line now.
It's not harmful. It's the death of a nation. Children won't be able to own anything.
Spot on the analysis! Very informative!
Amazing video
Thank you Jon!
Thanks for excellent video Jon!
My pleasure!
So many in the US are about to lose everything
The corruption that runs through this administration is getting scarier. I feel for the disabilities who are not getting the help they deserve. Anyone who is not investing now is missing a tremendous opportunity. Imagine investing $2,000 and receiving $10,020.
How can disabled seniors generate passive income during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust
Getting Mendy Alissa to help me really helped me clear all my debts. I started with what I have left and it's been the best decision I've ever made
This is correct, Mendy Alissa strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
I have been seeing lots of testimonies about her. She must be very good for people to talk so well about her
I remember giving her my first savings $4500 and she opened a brokerage account for me it turned out to be best thing that ever happened to me
Jon you are a class act! Other agents take note!
Similar crappy thing happened to me when I put an offer down on a new house 12 yrs ago in Lake Erie area. Scummy realtor (& builder) pressured me to sign purchase agreement with condition that if deal didn't close, realtor would get 2% commission on the sale of my property for the next 120 days. Unfortunately, I didn't notice this condition until after signing … I was so pissed off I let my purchase agreement lapse, waited 120 days, then the next day, re-submitted same purchase agreement on the same property with another agent. Builder told me me he didn't let the realtor know, he "didn't want to hurt his feelings." WTH crazy world of real estate.
What about the relation between rate cuts and house prices in Australia?
Very good analysis. You are right 👍
Thanks!
Since the rate cut, people are listing their house +100,000 more in Ottawa.
Yeah exactly, just because rates went down, people gonna pay up these idiots 100K more? Wait for 2019 pricing, it will come back.
I noticed this too. Market goes down so some put their prices up? Give your head a shake. Price according to sold data not delusional asking prices in your area. Get out before everyone runs for the exit. Mean reversion is happening
Guess they don’t need to sell that bad yet😂😂😂
interesting patterns in both countries and thanks for pulling this together. I do think there is a bit of a wild card in the Canadian context which makes it a unique compared to the US as well as previous Canadian trends historically and that's immigration. With record highs in the number of people entering Canada, does that not introduce a new factor that prop up demand and mitigate a downturn in Canada?
Jon, once again great video. Can you briefly explain why you feel if interest rates fall home prices won’t go up. I appreciate the historical charts that show how house prices will fall even as interest rates fall. To me it’s basic math if the numbers make sense even investors will jump in and prices overall would go up.
Because our economy is in the toilet and will only get worse for the next few years. No point in “investing” if there is no economy or employment to support high rents
@@apprenticephil649The economy has many moving parts. My comment still stands and Jon had not responded, his data is overly generalized.
Glad to see it all correcting. Gold is the best investment right now.
Yes it seems that way
Hard to argue with the numbers when they are spelled out accurately. I can’t C that I’m shocked, I thought it was gonna happen earlier than this year or next year.
Lol yea you just keep waiting... Crash is coming for sureeee this time, it's so different this time, it's guaranteed. No doubt for sure yea.
In Sudbury there is barely any listings so the very few that come on the market are doing very well. There is very little new construction here so people have to depend on resale.
I’m noticing a handful of new listings, almost daily.. That’s interesting for the end of August I think.. And starters, for young families - wow, some $340 even..
I’m on waterfront.. An outstanding property just down the street listed at $825k has been sitting for months.. oh.. I’m starting to see a change…. Cheers, 😊
Ive been hearing about a bubble burst in Canada since 2010. Thats 14 years now. Reality is we are not USA. Market is chronically in a housing shortage and we did not over build in the boom years like the US did and experienced even faster population growth...
I do believe prices CAN fall here too by substantial amounts up to a point with enough rise in unemployment and if rates do stay higher for longer and ppl cant afford to bid market as high. But an outright crash in prices of very high significance to me remains unlikely. Too much fundamental demand. Surge in rates may have made it dormant but its there providing a floor on prices. A 15% or 20% fall worse case scenario I would not be shocked but I dont know that Id call that a bubble burst, more like a major pullback. 40% to 50% like in 2007 to 2012 in USA like a real burst? I find it super unlikely
I only started talking about it in 2016 or so
Oshawa and St. Catharines are the epicenter of this bubble burst.
Jon, thanks for your video. Always enjoy your point of view and data. I don’t really agree with many aspects of your data. Housing prices are directly impacted by unemployment in a specific area. Take parts of Alberta vs other areas with higher unemployment as an example. Things are different now vs all the historical housing price drops you show in your data. Housing demand in Canada is at an all time high, high demand does not align with high price drops ahead. The economy has many moving parts and things are different now. We have a fast growing population and many investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting to scoop up housing when the numbers make sense. To summarize, price drops will be muted and area specific. Future housing prices should not be be compared to historical events. It’s over simplified when you make those types of references.
As a very long term broker in Toronto, I have
NEVER put in more than 60 days for expiry of a listing, I explain to owners I'm very confident if by any chance the property doesn't sell, they will see I have done everything asked, & I have never lost a listing that way.
In 2012 it turned in Arizona.. it had taken 4 yrs and 75% reduction in prices before it turned
Very sensible analysis
Thanks
On your data, the big difference was Canada imported massive immigration of 1million a year since 2022 so that will be a huge variable that will determined the housing prices compare to previous 17 year cycle! Canada short term solution from recession and immiment housing crisis are huge immigration. Now that same solution will take its toll on social infrastructure! But I guess Canadian government immediate attention was economic recession thus the immigration policy solution!
That desperate move won't save anyone. The immigrants will continue to rent 5 families to a house. High unemployment means noone gets a decent job means no qualifications for mortgages. Mortgage fraud will be there of course, but in insignificant numbers.
There was a lot wrong with his data.
It was literally him picking out the last 34 years and saying every 17 years there is a downturn.
He didn't mention any factors or information to what causes these things to happen.
Like yes possibly during the renewal of the 2% mortgages many people won't qualify which could drop the value of houses. He didn't even say that. He said based on the past and it being 17 years we know the future.
This guy is full of crap.
Then why is the condo market crumbling? I thought there was a supply issue?😂😂😂
@@James-tk9oyhope you didn’t buy a new construction condo you are in for some pain😂😂😂
@@apprenticephil649 1960's $300,000 house in a neighborhood that has $500,000 houses.
Different parts of the country are more inflated than others. So, is it reasonable to say this will impact people differently depending on area or country???
Very informative, thank you
People that over paid for housing will loose there shirt , this all started with way to many migrants allowed into Canada , there was a sudden shortage of housing , But I guess that is what the young people wanted ?
Low rates not immigrants did that
@@leinad5243Both are demand increases with limited capacity to increase supply. The federal government dropped the ball.
Immigration does have a certain effect, but it wasn't the driver really.
Most immigrants in Canada, in the last 5-6 years, are coming from poor undeveloped countries. That's a whole different topic. But, by and large, they have no money to buy anything. There are some scammers out there, and some insane 5-10ish joint mortgage applications, but those numbers were not that high to bring about what we are having today, real estate wise.
The racism is rife here.
@@igboman2860move along then
Town house purchased in 2006 for 226,000…. Now they are being listed for 790,000! 😮. This is in Surrey BC
But they are now in need of serious repair and not a huge contingency fund so the strata fees will be very high soon.
Prices in big developing cities always goes up as the cities develop .it's the natural trend and it's very right and normal.7 to 10 percent rise is normal as cities develop.we are seeing this since 30 years.for example the homes in Vancouver are more expensive than surrey .so as surrey develop people will have to move to lower cheaper areas in canada.as big cities develop new people move to cheaper areas .homes will never be cheap in bigger cities as they develop,and this is natural.
Well the math is pretty garbage for real estate as an investment right now. I sold a 1 bedroom condo for 535gs in 2022 and the most it could get for rent was 2800$. The mortgage on 500k with 550$ condo fees, taxes and maintenance would be almost 6k a month. Better to take the extra 3k each month and put it in the markets. Ive stopped investigating in real estate and am building a dividend portfolio across energy, food and basic necessities.
Yep, it’s been that way for a while but speculators keep hoping
We have been talking about the market crashing since 2011. Some people have waited just as long to buy a house and still waiting…now in a tent. Is the crash really going to be here?
Well, it looks like SOMETHING will happen. Situation today is unheard of. It is just not normal! Of course it will pop. Now, whether it's an apocalyptical crash or a some notable correction, is yet to be seen.
Stay out of debt. That is the most important thing now. That house mortgage debt is going to consume people in days ahead of us. Personally, I find it ridiculous to jump into such a debt (it shows some kind of deficit in critical thinking), unless one sees the whole point of life in toiling away to pay for something you won't even get to enjoy in.
There ARE other countries on across the globe, if one really has an itch of spending money on a home. Way cheaper, way more interesting (Cyprus, Mauritius, Iceland, Malta...to name a few), and something that will actually enrich your earthly life.
@@Nemija But you can't change cultures and countries as casually as changing your clothes. Not everyone wants to be a global economic migrant. Such factors as friends and family, the land and its history and culture, personal memories, etc, come into play here, surely?
@@TT-fq7pl
Agreed. That's why I mentioned if one really has an itch to buy. Stay with the family, and enjoy life. Only up until some 60-70 years ago, families lived TOGETHER (both parents, kids, and the grandkids). If we can learn anything from this laughable mental institution of today, we're living in, it is to bring back the family communities. We're so much cornered, that we're practically forced to resort to one normal thing that kept this country so beautiful and worth living.
@@Nemija Well, there's plenty of things about the past that appear to be gone for good -- especially a widespread sense of personal responsibility for our actions. The challenge, as you say, is to try not to let the whole danged mess make us more miserable than we need to be. Life is hard enough as it is.
I think it's inevitable when people start to sell their houses at massive scale at the same time, when they see no future here, it will create panic to sell at the same time..
There seems to be some collusion going on where I am from with house prices actually rising. Four houses listed for the same price this week with only one of those houses maybe being worth asking.
Have to find that fomo fool to hold the bag.
The corrupt industry has been doing the same in Canada that RealPage has been doing in the US (now subject to multiple price-fixing lawsuits).
@@lynb1022 Well I sure hope people are calling them out on it, everywhere you look these days corruption is staring back.
If nobody buys they can collude lower!😂😂😂
Oh really. Only months left for people to figure out that there isn't much of a crash.
our 2008 downturn may have been cut short by then finance minister flaherty playing with mortgages and allowing 40 year amortization, which helped juice the market
Maybe I'm jaded but I will believe it when I see it. Houses have to be half the price in my city before we can consider buying.
I agree
Great Job Jon ❤
Thanks
video title "Only Months Left Until This Bubble Finally Bursts!", watching it after 3 months.
Months could mean anything, you got clickbaited
@@jonflynn 😂 You got me. love your content. I hope the bubble burst soon or i win a lottery.
Another great video Jon. Excellent information.
Investors are teying panic selling properties but not getting buyers at rhe listed price.
Also end user property owners whom had purchased during covid or post covid time, will be forced to foreclosure.
Nice
It’s not going to be pretty
Agree with most assertions presented here. There is one variable though that was missing in the previous cycles. In the last couple of years we have added 5M residents, which are going to become citizens which are going to bring their parents with them (yep get ready for another 5M-10M increase in the Canadian population) - all of those people will need housing, this by itself should 'soften' the hard landing to some extend (it is not going to make life easier on anyone ... more misery for longer time for all as the affordability will continue to be problematic). Another observation I have is - the price drops (since the peak) presented here are MUCH worst while adjusting for the inflation. ( $1M in 2021 =! $1M in 2024 ).
I can’t stand the realtors who say there’s no better time to buy, stop waiting on the side line and help me pay off my house debt! Love your videos for being truthful with what’s happening
_"You are going to regret not buying in December"_
*-Steve Karrasch* (Jan 2024)
Will the Detroit 2008 scenario happen in Canada?