Only Months Left Until This Bubble Finally Bursts!
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- Опубліковано 8 вер 2024
- Historical data shows us this time it's Canada's turn for a significant downturn and crash in our real estate market. Major technical signals all point to an upcoming recession and declining house prices. #yieldcurve #housingcrisis #realestateinvesting #news #housingcrash #realestatemarket
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I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Yeah that’s craziness. How are first time buyers ever going to afford a place
I’m a new dad, I moved to the Bay Area a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? I heard Nvidia and AMD are strong buys.
it’s a personal decision, but according to Forbes, housing activities will remain stagnant for the most part of the year, so maybe hold off a little.
well you could put a downpayment on a home and as well diversify as much as you can into Ai and pharm. stocks like Pfizer and JnJ.
Certain Ai companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I.
this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?
When ‘Jessica Lee Horst’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
Really good show today!
I'm old enough that I lived through all of those recessions and also the 70s inflation and 80s foreclosures.(Which I think mirrors this one).
I bought my house in Abbotsford ,BC in 1996 for 128k in 1996, the fellow I bought it from bought it in 1981 for 112k. It only really went up with the rate of inflation.
That's what a normal market was, and that's what we counted on for retirement.
Nobody planned on their house being their entire retirement, whoever says that is lying or was planning on a humble last stage of life.
My house is worth over a mil now, but I only planned on it being worth 400k tops.
And that's the same expectation as all my peers.
Adjusted for inflation, my parents house is~450k in Toronto, yet it is 3x that even though it's the same house as in 2007 with a recent new roof and water tank/AC. This country is going the wrong way. Needs a new captain and crew. Sadly, none exists and all have sold out to corporations.
Sadly the truth is that all Canadians sat on their brains. Allowing things to get completely out of control. There should've been a national protest with closing down the economy, until the friggin' leaders changed the game plan.
I'm talking about abolishing MONEY LAUNDERING AND CRAZY OVERBIDDING WARS. PURE FRIGGIN' GREED.
@@Gameless Agreed. No political party seems to be on the side of the average person. Everything is done for corporate and other types of criminals.
@@Gameless You overlooked the significant immigration growth and the global trend of populations migrating from rural areas to urban centers. When you factor in the slower rate of new construction, the threefold increase becomes quite apparent. However, I do agree that the country needs new leadership.
Yup. We must be the same age. Also I retired in 2018. I was hoping my house would be worth $500000 on 2030. It is over a million now. I would prefer it was in line with inflation and young people could by a house. The government saying we are relying on our houses for retirement is bull!!
rate cuts are to boost a sagging economy to avoid a recession... not because inflation is under control like the politicians say.
I hear you! Unemployment is unreasonably high right now and it's not because of new Canadians. Companies are being cautious and not many job openings.
Government is trying to prevent more of a recession and dropping rates.
Expect the Cdn dollar to keep dropping against the usd.
Unemployment is unreasonably high right now? Really? Where in Canada do you live?
Indeed, anyone who says rate cuts signal good times are foolish. Inflation is under control because the economy is contracting on a per capita basis. Unemployment is a lagging indicator.
They cut rates for COVID to prematurely boost the economy. Expect more stagflation and significant wealth inequality.
Just like his dad, Trudeau has screwed this country by lying to all Canadians.
I put my house (in BC) for sale August 2022. Because I did "for sale by owner" the process was probably a little slower, the sale was finalized January 2023. I've been renting ever since. I'm hanging onto that bit of $$ waiting for a correction. I know many realtors, and they've all told me I'm wrong, and that there is also a supply issue. But I'm holding strong waiting for the dip. Previously people had been buying houses with little downpayment and had low interest rates. We have huge debt per capita. Those things have to come into play at some point here. I don't know how so much immigration or lack of supply will affect the dip, but personally I'm digging in, waiting it out. (Or, maybe I'll go retire in Indonesia, there's always a plan B.) Great video, as usual Jon. I appreciate your perspective.
i've heard of people doing that in vancouver during the great financial crisis... and they're still waiting for a correcting. now will be renting for life. good luck to you.
@@roseoverdose6451 "i've heard of people doing that in vancouver..." well then it must be true, right?
I like Steve Karrasch UA-cam for Fraservalley real estate too. The NDP are def on the side of renters rights. Lots are doing the same as you and using the interest to pay their rent. Certainly have a lot more info at our finger tips now. Cheers.
@@roseoverdose6451
There are other cities, towns and provinces in Canada, right?
Plus, the guy put it down loud and clear: Indonesia as the plan B.
YOLO bet
another informative update from Jon Flynn. Many sellers in Canada think it's Jan/Feb 2022 with their asking prices. The Great Canadian Real Estate Train Wreck is coming to a neighborhood near you while the government and the BoC orchestrate a race to the bottom on interest rates. When you see mass layoffs, who's going to be buying homes?
Generational trauma 🇨🇦
Thank you Mr. Flynn for keeping us so well informed with the real estate market. God bless you.
Bang on the data doesn’t lie. I think why people are confused is because real estate doesn’t whip up and down like the stock market. It moves slower…so the downturn will likely be years. Great job Jon!
Regardless of the irrevocable clause, the brokerage shouldn't be so petty. If he/she is owed for staging/photography ask for that money back and let them go. That is a sure way to lose any future business or referral.
Well said
Where did the media and general public get the idea that rate cuts are a positive indicator?
Of course it's positive that inflation went down.
@@tudvalstone interest rate and inflation rate are two different things
Then why do you see heavy activity in the market post rate cuts?
@@Jatin-nr1bj What heavy activity? Nothing's happening except a condo crash
The Liberal government has been out talking about how great it is
We are currently in a depression. Have been for over a year. The recession was in 2022.
Possibly
why would any seller sign for longer than 3 months and then roll it? 6-9 months is nuts
Thanks for the great research and commentary. In Haliburton, I have observed cottage properties sitting on the market and not moving. Some for more than 9 months. Some have changed agents 3 times.
Sauble Beach area similar. The mother of all busts is approaching 🌪️
@@musicbygoldenj ,....Thanks for sharing. Maybe the cottage markets are a harbinger for Ontario detached and condo?
Same in the Outaouais. Cottages and waterfront houses take forever to sell. Many go through multiple price reductions before they sell 9-12mo later. Vacant land market is completely dead. Only thing that still sells relatively well are detached houses close to core areas.
@@carlleblanc1660 from what I see vacant land isn’t selling but the prices are budging either. thoughts?
Excellent video Jon. In your next video can you show a long term chart of Canadian Average National Home Price with an overlay of Annual Immigration numbers into this country? It will be a clear visualization how an insanely excessive immigration policy (coupled with insanely low mortgage rates) over the last 15 years has helped artificially create this epic housing bubble.
Low skilled immigrants don’t buy $1 million homes.
you are correct. people who are making 90k they can get mortgage of 250k which is nothing. image what is going to happened when they have to renew. I guess next year housing will crash 20% or more.
They'll be wearing leg irons and chains and be slaves for life to their mortgage.
You're terrific Jon, appreciate the effort you put into providing this information, very valuable.
Wow. I just refreshed and your comments went from 50 down to 42.
UA-cam autodeleting comments
Free speech doesn't exist anymore, censor what you don't want and your agenda is set.
I’ve sold my condo last year. I saw the number of cranes and came a conclusion, condos are going to take the biggest decline in this upcoming down cycle. With inventory hitting 10 year highs, I’m certain lower prices will follow. Just takes time. Every homeowner who’s feeling the pinch has a breaking point. They’ve come to the conclusion they have to sell but are prices way way high. Trying to maximize their bank account to pay for rent.
Very true, thanks for the comment
Something had to give as the lowest end of the housing market had fallen the least. Now its catching up to the mid and higher ranged properties that have fallen quite a bit more percentagrege wise.
The problem is if all people start to sell at the same time not many people will buy, and house prices will drop..
@@IsmailFakri-j2e it took a while for the rate hikes to kick into households. Banks have been over accommodating and is now out of remedies. Homeowners are now finally come to concussion.
@@josephlim8941 Thanks God I didn't participate in this madness of greedy investment in the real estate market, thanks God again I wasn't part of the greed that caused real estate market to raise tremendously at unaffordable rate, lots of foreign investors were given green light tby the greedy Canadian politicians to invest in Canadian real estate market, lots of rental units are owned by foreign investors and big real estate companies, while the rest of Canadians followed suit to purchase properties, flip it, then sell it after few years of owning that property, thus causing residential real estate properties to raise in prices, the bubble was stretched and inflated by multiple directions..
I can't believe the amount of work that you must put in your channel. Thank you for your research-based observations and conclusions. So refreshing!
Much appreciated thanks.
Nothing to say! You said it all. Thanks for the great work. I agree 100%. Keep the good work up 😊
Another excellent clip with facts and detailed info
The downturn has already begun a few months ago, just waiting on people to wake up and realize it. Once these homes are in dire need of selling they will start dropping more. Takes time for sure
One major difference in today’s environment is that governments uniformly will not allow the markets to naturally balance themselves, whether that be the stock market or housing markets, because people will experience pain and politicians will lose votes. The only way to actually fix things is to let people that have ignorantly overextended themselves to feel their mistakes but it won’t happen and governments will bail people out.
Exactly right. Past performance is no guarantee of the future gains (or losses). All markets are rife with government manipulation like never before, and taking stupid risks is protected if not rewarded. Look at how major events have been shut down/unwound by exchanges recently - Gamestop, LME Nickel fiasco, etc.
With regard to housing specifically, why is the demand side never discussed? With the boomers reaching end of life, housing was supposed crash through the floor because there'd be all this empty housing sitting around. How do ineffectual anti-money laundering and unprecedented immigration policies factor in?
These UA-cam "gurus" have been throwing up thumbnails with clickbait titles and surprised soyboy faces for 10+ years now saying "the big crash is around the corner and my charts prove it". Still gets clicks, one assumes. I watch it for amusement now, to see the latest spin techniques.
This system only ends when the guns that hold it up (and the people manning them) go away.
And yet prices continue to come down. If you think the market can’t fail then go all in if you have all the answers
Eventually the U.S. stock market will crash worse than 1929 as no ponzi has lasted forever. In housing you can only lose some money but in the stock market if buying long on margin can lose everything in a small market correction of 50 percent.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you!
Excellent presentation!
Too many of those channels have been saying for years that the market is going to crash. They all have been wrong. Will some people be desperate to sell? Sure. But mostly, it's those people who overpaid by desperately over bidding on the property of their dreams. They stretched themselves too thin and are now panicking to sell like they panicked to buy. But there is no crash. Too many people are desperate for lodging. Prices may go down a bit, but no crash...
Thanks for the comment
U r one of the best agent telling true knowledge of housing. Great episode
Canada Economy = Canada Housing
From Aug 1st, people can get 30 year mortgages with CMHC insurance!!
Probably there will be 50 year mortgages next!! Helping people to pile on more and more debt.
Govt. is protecting the home-owners. So it’s difficult for prices to come down.
Unless people realize it’s gotten too risky now to buy houses at these prices. (Which are still high)
I guess it comes down to how far the prices will drop. Personally I think a North America will end up close to what Japan, Italy, Spain, have experienced. Especially now that there are so many countries abandoning the US dollar and moving towards the BRICS solution for transaction and trade. This is a bigger topic than the surface discussion we are engaged in here.
Brics is a joke. The usa dollar is losing value but it's still the least inflated in the world. Those countries all have worthless currencies and hate eachoth. Jp morgan made the name brics. They added sa because they needed the s. It's a complete joke they don't have a currencie.
Great as always. Thank you so very much..!!!
It’s all about unemployment numbers. Canadas real estate is nearly 10% of GDP. When things grind to a halt in the housing economy. First there is going to be a major unemployment for workers building houses and then the agents, lawyers, mortgage, banks and of course the municipalities and all the fees they collect from a home sale as well. Unemployment will increase substantially and when you’re not working even zero rates can’t help. I’ve been through numerous housing and recessions since the early seventies and this will be the mother of all crashes not only that but it is going to take a generation to get back to Covid levels.
Well if you don't save for a rainy day then you're screwed. They made their money.
Don't threaten me with a good time
Canadian RE is easy 30% of GDP
Not sure I completely agree. Unemployment is directly related to housing prices in a local area. You should specify its area specific. Secondly, half of the homes in Canada are mortgage free. On the other half that do have mortgages there is data that shows only 15-20% of those are highly leveraged against housing income. Those are the homes at risk. Things are a bit different now from historical home price drops. We have a major housing shortage, demand is high. There is no shortage of investors waiting on the sidelines for the housing numbers to make sense to jump in. Are house prices going to drop, yes, will it be significant, that depends on the area. There is no shortage of videos titled with the word “crash”. The economy has many different moving parts. I also feel home ownership for young Canadians is currently unattainable but I do not see major price drops ahead, demand is simply at record historical levels. Price drops will be muted. Sorry folks, that’s reality. High demand does not bring low prices.
It's a simple contract to read, why would you take a irrevocable agreement? People do your homework!
I can’t stand the realtors who say there’s no better time to buy, stop waiting on the side line and help me pay off my house debt! Love your videos for being truthful with what’s happening
_"You are going to regret not buying in December"_
*-Steve Karrasch* (Jan 2024)
Another 30-40% price reduction from here is inevitable
Quite possible.
The pricier houses over 1 million ones will be impacted more the entry level homes will do fine. Toronto condo market is a different story as there are many listings
How do you know that?
@pascalilboudo6399 This is basic economic knowledge. Study the Canadian housing market since the 1990, you will see the price trends.
@@southhillfarm2795 More than likely
I don’t see how prices will go down when we have more and more people and the same number of houses…
Soon you will be enlightened.
Wow, maybe one of the few honest agent brokers left.
Shite is just starting to hit the fan!
Grabbing my bag of popcorn and start watching the show..LETS MAKE IT A BIG ONE...
@@mikebowers7719 😛
100% spot on analysis, Jon.
Well done!
Great report. Thank you
I think our house price went up 500% since 2003. It's honestly stupid and really harmful for the overall economy. People are spending way too much of their incomes on their mortgages and many haven't even renewed yet. These higher rates will continue to work its way through the economy for the next 18-24 months.
I think it's time the gov't tax investors at a commercial rate if they are using a property as a rental. Then get rid of the land transfer taxes on endusers. Also drop the development fees quite a bit to encourage building and lower prices.
And yes, prices roll over as the int rates roll over because the GDI ie incomes are rolling over. Nobody can buy. And once they see prices dropping, they don't want to be the person catching the falling knife.
Anyways, great charts but make sure you put a long term trend line to show that when we actually have a correction, it over corrects by 5-8%. I think we are still 22-25% above the average trend line now.
It's not harmful. It's the death of a nation. Children won't be able to own anything.
Really good info regarding the listing contract Jon. Steve Karrasch (Fraservalley) has similar views as you though he did say people may regret not purchasing this Dec as upward price preasures are still in play and there so much inventory currently prices are softening. He has also explained new rules from NDP favouring renters. Without resource extraction returning to stabilize our economy, I don't see how our economy recovers especially with the current leadership. In that I would like to be very very wrong.
Great video Jon! It’s amazing how many people will still choose to ignore this.
Define crash ? 10 % down ? To me a crash is 50 % down... I don't see that happening
@AA-kq6dp definition of a crash is 20%, some local markets have passed that and some have bounced back (can be a dead cat bounce). Too much funny money in the system still. Both FED and BoC trying to kick the can pass elections. But this time the US will lead in November. That's the time-line we all should pay attention to. Up or down - doesn’t take much to cause a big dip with ATH in everything. Lots of debt and leverage. Only direction is down : logically when considering global events and sabre rattling and conflicts existing. But markets are irrational, so the can be kicked a year or two. But Canada has renewals like the UK. It would start either in UK or Canada between 2025-2027.
I think there is a very good chance of a 50% drop. 🤓
20% down two years in a row = 50% down from initial value
So many in the US are about to lose everything
If you've been disciplined and stayed on the sidelines when everyone was bragging about their new condo that's going to double in price, congrats! No you get the just live your life while they blow a gasket, stress and complain it's not fair.
Jon, you have not added the population explosion into the equation. As long as there are far more people wanting to buy than houses available, wouldn't that keep the prices up? There will always be people with money. How will prices come down when there are always rich people snatching houses up because they need a place to live? Please enlighten me!
You only need one property to live , you got money to buy more house for investment to generate income, therefore you need tenants, when rates cut means economy slow down people get lay off , so nobody want to rent your property or your renter starting to not pay rent, tell me at that point, do you still want buy house?
When people couldn’t afford the price what else they could do? Condo market will make lots of people go bankrupt. The population increase is the poor people, not the rich who could afford any price.
@@lihuang7422this is happening. My client decided to move to another house, the house they are moving out has been on market for 2 months which is still not rented. The Indian owner was trying to ask my client to buy it because they had variable rate which make the cash flow to negative.
Rich people aren't snatching houses up because they need a place to live, they're snatching houses up to extort average people who need a place to live into paying their fucking mortgages... and/or launder their ill-gotten gains. We need to change the tax laws/policies to disincentivize them (e.g. remove tax breaks from rental properties, implement massive vacancy taxes so they can't just let them sit unused a.k.a. manipulate supply, simply put a cap on who can buy and how many, etc.).
Condo market is imploding but apparently there is a supply issue. How does that make sense?
Different parts of the country are more inflated than others. So, is it reasonable to say this will impact people differently depending on area or country???
Damn, real estate agents thinking they’re economists, EVERYONE PLEASE DONT TRUST ANY AGENT, GO TO REPUTABLE ECONOMISTS
Which ones, can you recommend a few?
I have friends who used to work at bubble tea shop, a year later, she became a realtor, talking about thr markets all of sudden. Another chick who used to run poker games, but got raided by the cops.same thing, she went and became a realtor. Lol 😂
Maybe. The issue is Jon has literally been saying this same thing, "crash imminent!!!" FOR YEARS. Hard to believe a UA-camr who uses clickbait all caps video hook titles and whose views are based on this "crash imminent" schtick.
Jon needs the clicks and views because his real estate business is failing. He has lost half his agents and complains on X about how he can't sell any houses. All his posts are about how he couldn't get a deal together, not a single one about houses he has actually sold. When you are spending your weekends helping tenants find rentals as Jon is doing you are scraping the bottom of the real estate barrel.
Thanks for watching
@@jonflynn can't answer the critics hey? Typical Jon, no accountability. No wonder your agents leave.
I used to love his channel- all this man talks about is a crash that’s not happening. Poor renters! All you guys keep thinking is a crash is coming. When rates go down to 3% next year how will it crash? This is a joke!! If housing goes down and keeps going down no one would ever be interested in real estate. So stop the nonsense!! I’ll be back next summer to show everyone that prices are going up!
@@Lifeisapartydresslikeit Jon will still be doing the crash is coming videos next summer. And not taking any accountability for being wrong.
Realtors are a big part of the housing problem, they take too much in fees and you can negotiate it with them as there are no set laws regarding fees. Go with a 3 month contract too as its long enough. We were told 20 years ago the real estate market was going to crash...im still waiting.
Mass layoffs result in fewer buyers signing 30-year mortgages. Some semblance of job security, crucial for buying a home, is significantly undermined nowadays by fears of AI.
Diminished purchasing power and higher insurance costs for older homes further discourage young people from entering the housing market.
Investors are teying panic selling properties but not getting buyers at rhe listed price.
Also end user property owners whom had purchased during covid or post covid time, will be forced to foreclosure.
Nice
It’s not going to be pretty
The reality of burden of homeownership from the recent overpriced bubble will counter FOMO eventually
The corruption that runs through this administration is getting scarier. I feel for the disabilities who are not getting the help they deserve. Anyone who is not investing now is missing a tremendous opportunity. Imagine investing $2,000 and receiving $10,020.
How can disabled seniors generate passive income during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust
Getting Mendy Alissa to help me really helped me clear all my debts. I started with what I have left and it's been the best decision I've ever made
This is correct, Mendy Alissa strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
I have been seeing lots of testimonies about her. She must be very good for people to talk so well about her
I remember giving her my first savings $4500 and she opened a brokerage account for me it turned out to be best thing that ever happened to me
Ive been hearing about a bubble burst in Canada since 2010. Thats 14 years now. Reality is we are not USA. Market is chronically in a housing shortage and we did not over build in the boom years like the US did and experienced even faster population growth...
I do believe prices CAN fall here too by substantial amounts up to a point with enough rise in unemployment and if rates do stay higher for longer and ppl cant afford to bid market as high. But an outright crash in prices of very high significance to me remains unlikely. Too much fundamental demand. Surge in rates may have made it dormant but its there providing a floor on prices. A 15% or 20% fall worse case scenario I would not be shocked but I dont know that Id call that a bubble burst, more like a major pullback. 40% to 50% like in 2007 to 2012 in USA like a real burst? I find it super unlikely
I only started talking about it in 2016 or so
Do you think they will connect CRA with the mortgage verification?
If yes, then when? and what impact it would have on the housing market.
Will be great if you make a video on that,
On your data, the big difference was Canada imported massive immigration of 1million a year since 2022 so that will be a huge variable that will determined the housing prices compare to previous 17 year cycle! Canada short term solution from recession and immiment housing crisis are huge immigration. Now that same solution will take its toll on social infrastructure! But I guess Canadian government immediate attention was economic recession thus the immigration policy solution!
That desperate move won't save anyone. The immigrants will continue to rent 5 families to a house. High unemployment means noone gets a decent job means no qualifications for mortgages. Mortgage fraud will be there of course, but in insignificant numbers.
There was a lot wrong with his data.
It was literally him picking out the last 34 years and saying every 17 years there is a downturn.
He didn't mention any factors or information to what causes these things to happen.
Like yes possibly during the renewal of the 2% mortgages many people won't qualify which could drop the value of houses. He didn't even say that. He said based on the past and it being 17 years we know the future.
This guy is full of crap.
Then why is the condo market crumbling? I thought there was a supply issue?😂😂😂
@@James-tk9oyhope you didn’t buy a new construction condo you are in for some pain😂😂😂
@@apprenticephil649 1960's $300,000 house in a neighborhood that has $500,000 houses.
Great job!
Jon, thanks for your video. Always enjoy your point of view and data. I don’t really agree with many aspects of your data. Housing prices are directly impacted by unemployment in a specific area. Take parts of Alberta vs other areas with higher unemployment as an example. Things are different now vs all the historical housing price drops you show in your data. Housing demand in Canada is at an all time high, high demand does not align with high price drops ahead. The economy has many moving parts and things are different now. We have a fast growing population and many investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting to scoop up housing when the numbers make sense. To summarize, price drops will be muted and area specific. Future housing prices should not be be compared to historical events. It’s over simplified when you make those types of references.
We have been talking about the market crashing since 2011. Some people have waited just as long to buy a house and still waiting…now in a tent. Is the crash really going to be here?
Well, it looks like SOMETHING will happen. Situation today is unheard of. It is just not normal! Of course it will pop. Now, whether it's an apocalyptical crash or a some notable correction, is yet to be seen.
Stay out of debt. That is the most important thing now. That house mortgage debt is going to consume people in days ahead of us. Personally, I find it ridiculous to jump into such a debt (it shows some kind of deficit in critical thinking), unless one sees the whole point of life in toiling away to pay for something you won't even get to enjoy in.
There ARE other countries on across the globe, if one really has an itch of spending money on a home. Way cheaper, way more interesting (Cyprus, Mauritius, Iceland, Malta...to name a few), and something that will actually enrich your earthly life.
@@Nemija But you can't change cultures and countries as casually as changing your clothes. Not everyone wants to be a global economic migrant. Such factors as friends and family, the land and its history and culture, personal memories, etc, come into play here, surely?
@@TT-fq7pl
Agreed. That's why I mentioned if one really has an itch to buy. Stay with the family, and enjoy life. Only up until some 60-70 years ago, families lived TOGETHER (both parents, kids, and the grandkids). If we can learn anything from this laughable mental institution of today, we're living in, it is to bring back the family communities. We're so much cornered, that we're practically forced to resort to one normal thing that kept this country so beautiful and worth living.
@@Nemija Well, there's plenty of things about the past that appear to be gone for good -- especially a widespread sense of personal responsibility for our actions. The challenge, as you say, is to try not to let the whole danged mess make us more miserable than we need to be. Life is hard enough as it is.
I think it's inevitable when people start to sell their houses at massive scale at the same time, when they see no future here, it will create panic to sell at the same time..
People that over paid for housing will loose there shirt , this all started with way to many migrants allowed into Canada , there was a sudden shortage of housing , But I guess that is what the young people wanted ?
Low rates not immigrants did that
@@leinad5243Both are demand increases with limited capacity to increase supply. The federal government dropped the ball.
Immigration does have a certain effect, but it wasn't the driver really.
Most immigrants in Canada, in the last 5-6 years, are coming from poor undeveloped countries. That's a whole different topic. But, by and large, they have no money to buy anything. There are some scammers out there, and some insane 5-10ish joint mortgage applications, but those numbers were not that high to bring about what we are having today, real estate wise.
The racism is rife here.
@@igboman2860move along then
interesting patterns in both countries and thanks for pulling this together. I do think there is a bit of a wild card in the Canadian context which makes it a unique compared to the US as well as previous Canadian trends historically and that's immigration. With record highs in the number of people entering Canada, does that not introduce a new factor that prop up demand and mitigate a downturn in Canada?
Yesterday I saw a guy in one of Instagram reels said that yes, the global economy is going in recession but history is proof that house prices almost always increases in a recession (no data, we just need to take his word, LOL). It was funny, made me laugh a little!
My data says the opposite lol
I think the listing should be revocable as a default rule, or the general rule. And, allowing the parties to make it irrevocable.if they choose to do so. That irrevocability as a rule, and the revocability as an exception, or as an option, will be a source of infinite legal disputes.the parties, the real estate agents, and brokers, are not legally trained to draft a valid revocation clause.
We need to tax houses as investments since that's what they are used for now.
So if I spend a 100 k on improvements, the Government gets the benefit? I saved the down payment from already taxed money, I pay the mortgage which is at least 50% interest, I pay yearly taxes that never go lower, insurance, maintenance and upkeep so that a Government can benefit from me taking all the risk? How about possible losses? Will they let me claim a tax loss when I decide to let it fall apart like some old sections in Detroit? Thats exactly what will happen when they make money from a life long money pit.
The realtor fear is palpable in the comments section.
I bet there will be deals by winter, if people have to sell,they will welcome offers.
Wonderful video explaining the financial data.
Rates cut follows prices to fall. Because bac only cut when there is a problem in the economy.
The emotion in the comment section from ‘investors’ 😂
Investors and fomo realtors..
😂😂👌👌
Put sound math on reddit and get the same responses: shortage + record immigration. It's almost like debt levels vs income don't matter to those RE pumpers.
Lol right the ones who actually own their homes are struggling.
@hc8129 some are, anyone with a mortgage the past 10 years will be house poor for a while with the amount owing at 3x the interest cost.
Hard to argue with the numbers when they are spelled out accurately. I can’t C that I’m shocked, I thought it was gonna happen earlier than this year or next year.
Lol yea you just keep waiting... Crash is coming for sureeee this time, it's so different this time, it's guaranteed. No doubt for sure yea.
Thank you John once again for truthful fact based reporting not wishful deception. FOMO what a cruel tactic the industry has been using.
Thanks for that useful tip at the beginning Jon. It’s certainly annoying if the brokerage holds you at ransom if because of any reason you wanna cancel
Glad it was helpful!
Maybe I'm jaded but I will believe it when I see it. Houses have to be half the price in my city before we can consider buying.
I agree
fantastic work and very informative Jon. Im a numbers guy and believe in it to the core of my existance. Men Lie, Women Lie, Numbers dont lie!
Well said!
There seems to be some collusion going on where I am from with house prices actually rising. Four houses listed for the same price this week with only one of those houses maybe being worth asking.
Have to find that fomo fool to hold the bag.
The corrupt industry has been doing the same in Canada that RealPage has been doing in the US (now subject to multiple price-fixing lawsuits).
@@lynb1022 Well I sure hope people are calling them out on it, everywhere you look these days corruption is staring back.
If nobody buys they can collude lower!😂😂😂
I saw a tone of cancellations this week. I get an email for a new listing. I click on it and it says that it is no longer available 😂. I thought it was some ridiculous FOMO creation strategy. I won't buy for a really long time if I ever buy. No way will I pay for a house at the current prices. Speculators tripled the house prices and now those rats have scattered. The current market is now and end user market. 4 times annual earnings is the max that anyone should pay for a house. The median household income is currently 97 thousand. 4 time 97 k is 338 k. With prices currently at 1.1 million. It makes no sense at all to ever buy at those prices even if rent is sky high
Thanks for a great video!
As a very long term broker in Toronto, I have
NEVER put in more than 60 days for expiry of a listing, I explain to owners I'm very confident if by any chance the property doesn't sell, they will see I have done everything asked, & I have never lost a listing that way.
The muppet boiler room condo flipping market is dead 😂
The numpty assignment “sell your paper contract” racket is DEAD DEAD DEAD 😂😂
Thank you
The only thing that's different this time is that Canada's population growth is one of the highest in the world which will probably lessen the drop. Demand is sky-high.
Any data on how many immigrants have left Canada? 🤔
1990s immigration push did not stop that slide over 6 years. It probably shortened it by offering low wage workers who don't know their Labour rights. This time is similar; just on steroid levels as our HB is on its 3rd inflation. Now it will deflate at a certain rate. Just my 2 cp.
How do immigrants buy homes if they make min wage? Maybe fraud. Who can afford the homes people are selling. NO ONE😂😂😂😂
Since the rate cut, people are listing their house +100,000 more in Ottawa.
Yeah exactly, just because rates went down, people gonna pay up these idiots 100K more? Wait for 2019 pricing, it will come back.
I noticed this too. Market goes down so some put their prices up? Give your head a shake. Price according to sold data not delusional asking prices in your area. Get out before everyone runs for the exit. Mean reversion is happening
Guess they don’t need to sell that bad yet😂😂😂
our 2008 downturn may have been cut short by then finance minister flaherty playing with mortgages and allowing 40 year amortization, which helped juice the market
Very sensible analysis
Thanks
In Sudbury there is barely any listings so the very few that come on the market are doing very well. There is very little new construction here so people have to depend on resale.
I’m noticing a handful of new listings, almost daily.. That’s interesting for the end of August I think.. And starters, for young families - wow, some $340 even..
I’m on waterfront.. An outstanding property just down the street listed at $825k has been sitting for months.. oh.. I’m starting to see a change…. Cheers, 😊
The interesting period is the late 1970s when Canadian Bank got into trouble (most notably CIBC). The chart doesn't show it well but house prices boomed with interest rates being less than inflation (negative real rates) in late 70s. The house price dip before the 1980 recession was longer and larger adjusted for inflation (mortgage rates peaked August 1981 at 21.75%.) I wonder if high inflation is what the BOC and FED want and our current situation mirrors the late 70s.
Inflation to the rescue (of the banks)?
Spot on the analysis! Very informative!
Nope. Canadian housing costs will never drop more than about 10-20%, certainly not 30-40%. The universe itself will intervene to keep it up artificially. And really, an 80% drop is back to normal for Canada. Poillievre says housing has doubled. No. Housing is 4-5x what it should be.
Similar crappy thing happened to me when I put an offer down on a new house 12 yrs ago in Lake Erie area. Scummy realtor (& builder) pressured me to sign purchase agreement with condition that if deal didn't close, realtor would get 2% commission on the sale of my property for the next 120 days. Unfortunately, I didn't notice this condition until after signing … I was so pissed off I let my purchase agreement lapse, waited 120 days, then the next day, re-submitted same purchase agreement on the same property with another agent. Builder told me me he didn't let the realtor know, he "didn't want to hurt his feelings." WTH crazy world of real estate.
Oshawa and St. Catharines are the epicenter of this bubble burst.
Amazing video
Thank you Jon!
I've been hearing this for 10 years! It's always right around the corner, only it never happens!
@@grantgoldberg1663 it kind of did starting in 2017: market went side ways through till 2019. The record low rates during 2020 was a mistake: history will tell as all that free money at 5% rates will sap any GDP growth for anyone that's gonna HODL. Some will fold, some will delever, some will walk away and leave the country.
Hey Jon, does it really put a buyer at a disadvantage to push to not sign an Exclusivity Agreement with Agent? It's not like they are a fiduciary, why should I give them that Exclusivity? Why not engage multiple agents?
Think about it. Do you like to work for free? Why not have 1000 agents working for you, all for free?
Prices in big developing cities always goes up as the cities develop .it's the natural trend and it's very right and normal.7 to 10 percent rise is normal as cities develop.we are seeing this since 30 years.for example the homes in Vancouver are more expensive than surrey .so as surrey develop people will have to move to lower cheaper areas in canada.as big cities develop new people move to cheaper areas .homes will never be cheap in bigger cities as they develop,and this is natural.
Very good analysis. You are right 👍
Thanks!
Imagine a real estate agent telling their clients in 2020 “ this time the market is different, this is the best time to buy just trust me”.. some of you guys can’t for see what’s gonna happen in the future, but there will be an explosion of homelessness and foreclosures thanks to the RE market
Glad to see it all correcting. Gold is the best investment right now.
Yes it seems that way
The new fly in the ointment however is the influx of immigrants. A million or so looking for housing and coming in with money to spend.
I hope you are right but there may not be that drop this time
Is the government bringing in people with money to spend or staff for Tim Norton's and McDonald's?
@@brucemctavish4030 reality is when 15 Tim Horton's workers share a mortgage payment it keeps the prices high. And with the millions of new immigrants in the last few years there's no shortage of desperation
Sure. The condo market is dead but apparently all this immigrant money is coming 😂😂😂
i doubt