Fortunately, my spouse and I were able to pay off our mortgage early. While we were both still employed, we took the money we had been using to accelerate our mortgage repayment and invested it immediately. Thanks to nearly 7 years of saving what would have been our mortgage payment and to maxing out our 401K/403B plans, we were able to retire early. Fortunately, both of our parents instilled in us the need of living within our means.
Thank you for your advice. I know it will help people. we are interested in investments that could set me up for retirement , I mean I've heard of people that netted hundreds of thousands during these crash, I listened to someone on a podcast who earned over $650K in less than a year, what's the strategy behind such returns?
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Aileen.
From paying for day care and college, to managing mortgage payments. I'm approaching retirement yet inflation is getting worse and recession is biting harder by the day. How can I generate more income to retire with at least $3m for long term care? I have about 750k in savings.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Sophia Maurine Lanting” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I'm favoured, Getting my own Truck has always been my Dream for my business. I just acquired 2 recently, earning $32K weekly has been really helpful. I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support Charity Organizations.
Yes! I'm celebrating £32K stock portfolio today... Started this journey with £3K.... I've invested no time and also with the right terms, now I have time for my family an…
when someone is straight forward and good at what she does best. People will always speak for them. For me I can would say give Mrs Jenna Brooklyn of finance education a try and you be happy you did
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
10 years from now, when people look back, it will be painfully obvious that today we should have easily seen that the crash had already started. The problem is, no one sees it while it's happening.
lol crash coming in Canada for the last 30 years, especially in BC. Meanwhile the shortage of houses is over a million houses short. House prices are merely going to stagnate not crash. Condos might crash though - those are not really homes just monopoly toys, no land and beholden to condo councils.
Home price is not based on construction and taxes cost, but on the stupidity of Canadians, less taxes means only more profit, not a single cent of price reduction.
@@supermash1nah he's right. Our housing market is a bubble, it's divorced from fundamentals. These recent changes the liberals did and the conservatives are promising will just add more capital to keep the bubble inflated. This will do nothing to help affordability long term
@@slayerinferno Agreed, it's undoubtedly a bubble, and the "extend and pretend", extended mortgage amortation years, and direct price subsidies the BC government are talking about, will only drive prices up. But reducing taxes on housing will be directly passed on to consumers. Any developer that tries to keep any direct tax reductions will be uncompetitive immediately. Especially now that the market is down and will in my opinion continue to go down. In fact with Trump winning the US election, my gut feeling is Canada will have a recession and our housing market will tank.
Interest rates can go up at a moments notice, so house prices, not interest rates, need to drop. Federal immigration policies were and are catastrophic. The renters are gone, the speculators are gone and the baby boomers are getting older by the second. That is a lot of downward pressure on real estate. Add the high volume of undesirable condos coming to market and assignment deposits paid for using home equity lines of credit and I see a progressively worsening problem
Thank you Jon! I think we are going the same direction as US in 2009, = market crash, we are overloaded with a high debt and economy isn't doing well immigration numbers went down significantly... i see a lot of negative factors for 2025 and possibly 1 positive if Trudeau leaves!!!!
Boy Jon , I'm finding it tough paying my bills , no extras for us , no going out to eat anymore , I'm going to drive the same car as long as it runs , this is not what I thought life would be like after year's of working ?
Yep I don't go out for dinner much anymore either. You really have to budget and plan these days. Debt of all sorts seems to accumulate like the sun rises.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Regina to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
Can you provide instructions on how to contact your advisor? I'm experiencing erosion of my funds due to inflation and looking for a more profitable investment strategy to make better use of them.
‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
The same house my father bought in1963 for 13,500 lock stock and barrel. Id now 265000. Same stucco. Same fence. Rotten and falling down. Hmmm. What a joke. 😅
In Vancouver, the wild thing is a Condo that was built and sold in like 2004 for like 100k is up over 500k, but nobody in this city makes five times as much as they did in 20 years ago. And some of them were leaky to begin with so there is a ton of legacy costs that got sunk into them from water damage.
That's a bargain. M6 dad bought their house in Victoria for $11k in 1971. Would easily sell for $1.5m now. And this is strictly land value - the house would likely be torn down.
@@debbielockhart7762 What's the land value? The land prices we have now in the second-biggest country in the world are ridiculous. All that BS is based on people's stupidity, on the weird belief that prices always go up no matter what.
@@jonflynn all of them have their own survival first, their children's second, their gandchildren's third, their unborn great grandchildren fourth, their unborn great great grandchildren fifth, their unborn great great great grandchildren 6th, their unborn great great great great grandchildren 7th, their friends 8th, their siblings 9th, u and me 1000000th on the list. BTW they have their own interest in mind with your and my money. It is very VOMIT INDUCING and A PURE CON JOB. Lying and gaslighting is their bread and butter.
Wait - one of the problems is mal - investment in real estate because real estate is tax advantaged. This desire to be in real estate is what's causing the lack of investment in productivity improving investments. Won't taking the tax OFF real estate make the tax advantage worse?
You are exactly right. The “conservatives” don’t want to put their money where their mouth is and let the market correct. And before you all tell me the government getting involved was the problem then by all means try to maintain your property rights without police involvement : D
Good analysis. The government sector is now larger than the private sector they govern. Land transfer tax, GST/HST, development fees, permits and property taxes are all at ridiculous levels. Not to mention all the regulatory building governance with their fingers in the construction industries pockets. It's no wonder housing is so unaffordable! You couldn't build a cheap home if you wanted to.
Would the elimination of HST on new homes truly be passed down to the consumer or simply pad the builders pockets? Would builders automatically reduce their home prices by $100k? Might be better off sending a rebate directly to purchaser.
I think this too. Development cost charges by municipalities and "property purchase taxes" would increase too. No level of government wants to give anyone a break. Hey, they've got some extra money! Let's go get it!
Hi John, Great Video as always. The data indicates are economy is weaker than the US. Having said that US stimulus through deficit spending is legendary in the US and near non existent on Canada. The good news is our GDP as low as it is is real. Household debt is sky high and far above US household debt. I think the government will continue to cut rates to remove pressure off households.Inflation cannot return with broke over extended consumers. They want to buy everything but just can’t, we have 2.1 trillion in mortgage debt. It’s not going away any time soon.
Thanks Jon, another great video. Incredible how much politics has become so important in real estate, but it’s necessary . Many will be shocked the Conservatives have a real plan. 👍😉Huge savings on mortgage & cost of living.
What stopping buyers from bidding the price back up? Buyers are buying based off of monthly payment not total house . A Part of this affordability problem is buyers paying these crazy prices (we can afford the monthly payment)
Completely agree Jon, Real estate prices cannot stand this high for long. They gonna be deep down in another months, Condo market is already in a mess isn't?
We`ve had two rate cute. My variable rat is only 5.7%. When will Fixed rates come down? I low should I rate for the 5 yr fixed rate to go before locking in?
you're probably better off sticking with variable at this point. Talk to an honest mortgage broker to get their opinion. I use either Bill Anderson or Greg Weaver in Niagara, they will tell you straight up.
So if a lot of mortgages in canada are through private lenders then my question is are they being sold to the banks as MBS the way it was done in the states back before 2008? If so those loans are being financialized and may disappear from statistics.
Privates are more expensive but more flexible. In a pinch or for say a flip privartes can be good. Many end up getting a 2nd mortgage because the bank won;t give them any more money. Can be a dangerous situations. Mostly I find people haven't adjusted their spending to the times.
Also, clearly credit rating agencies are in on it, municipalities should not be able to find operating expenses with "development charges". It shows up as revenues on municipality financial statements, but actually it is off the books leverage, because the development charges are loans to developers, and when the project is completed, the mortgager then gets the mortgage. This is municipalities funding operating expenses with loans. It is a hidden source of govt debt. And the credit rating agencies have been completely silent since the pandemic
These deliquency figures do not add up. The number o forced sales coupled with Condos on the market suggests that things are far tighter than the numbers indicate.
I think your points are very valid. And also, why would the federal government be in panic mode and introduce longer CMHC mortgage amortizations and higher borrowing limits to build secondary housing units? Right now, unemployment is slowly rising, inflation is still hurting Canadians, and on top of that, the US just elected Trump who will slap tariffs on our exports. And immigration is quickly going down as nobody wants to move in the shitshow that we are anymore. The housing market's only hope would be that the CAD gets flushed so bad that a loaf of bread would be $50. But in real terms, there's no way prices will increase moving forward until we reset and start growing again. My hope is that we reset properly, home prices go back to 3-4x household incomes and we elect a government that will stop spending like crazy and start focusing on our productivity crisis.
I'm all for reducing taxes as long as our currency is not being debased to pay for this loss of tax income. My house is paid for. I don't want to pay for other's homes when our fiat currency is debased by more money printing. I think the best thing is remove 90% of the government employees from all level of government and all the red tape and fees they created.
What income do you need to qualify for 1m house as a first time home buyer? Like 350k for the average borrower assuming 20% down. How many 1st time homebuyers that you know have 350k income? So who are we helping? I thought we weee trying to get normal income families into homes??
Funny that central bank is telling Canadians to go and buy more without addressing affordability. New comers don't have that much money either. Sad state that we expect housing to fuel the economy as stated by BoC recently.
It seems to me that debt based financial systems have "delinquency" baked into the very system. The economy demands more monetary units to meet mathematically scaling debt, but the system attempts to only introduce monetary units via the creation of new debt contracts which then demand more monetary units as they mathematically scale.
In 1991 my income was 40k and average bungalow I purchased for 100K. 2.5X my income. Today my income is 100k and average bungalow is 400k so 3X my income.
If these tax breaks on NEW homes are the solution to affordability, those of us who need to sell our current home (that doesn't offer the tax breaks, ie- selling for health or retirement issues) are going to get hammered financially by having to drastically lower our price. I'd hoped for a few dollars to help supplement my retirement (not investor greed) but now there is no such thing as a smaller home for a smaller price. I'm truly stuck in a home I am unable to maintain for health reasons. According to your "purchase formula", my only option would be to sell at a loss and hope I can afford a rental until long term care is my last "roof".
Why don't the builders do their part and cut the costs of these "new homes" that are made out of cheaper quality parts? The builder just passes on some of their fees onto the purchasers anyways. They can't get away with all these record profits. What about some of these SHOE BOX condos? How can a family raise a kid inside one of those little condos? They shouldn't even be allowed to build them. You only think it's a great idea that the government implements these tax breaks in the future because you're a real estate agent. You want to sell houses. Everyone is greedy. In it for themselves.
Great research..... One fact....Since 2016 most of the mortgage had to go for stess test arround 6%...that mean you can still make the payment On the other side ...starting this january....the BoC is very active on RepoMarket......$16 billion per day for the last (2) month....that mean the BoC bought mortgage from the bank to inject money in the system..... Since the pandemic, the BoC act life the fed: Print money and bailout bank
Jon, cutting the tax would not cut the cost of the house. The builder gets input tax credits that equal almost the exact same amount of the HST (less the $24,000). Therefore, if the tax is axed, the input credits to the builder are also axed... net result zero. If the builder can't claim the input HST credits then is the builder supposed to eat the other $100,000 loss????
The builder will get full ITC for all hst expenses building the house since they’re collecting no HST. They should literally get every penny of HST back on construction and operating costs on homes under $1M
@@jonflynn They will get ZERO ITC if ZERO is charged... An axed tax policy would eliminate the ability to claim ITC. Can't have cake and eat it too. Jon I would expect you as a realtor to understand that... you charge HST on your commissions and therefore you get ITC. If you didn't charge HST on your commissions, then you wouldn't be allowed to claim any ITC.
@@joebazooks Sorry it doesn't work that way.. Poilievre doesn't understanding builders need the HST income to offset the tax they have paid, or base prices must rise. No HST charged means no HST input tax credit are allowed to be claimed. He's a politician, not a tax expert.
Build affordable apartments instead of over priced micro condos. Problem is the lack of options and alternatives. The government needs to build more rental apartments. This would lower rental prices. Condo and house prices would garner less demand if cheaper alternatives were made available. Cheaper rent leads to realistic real estate prices.
He thinks it's politically beneficial. It was but now the kids and grandkids of the beneficiaries can't afford a home and it's coming out of the boomers pockets.
My numbers on family income tell me that an average home needs to be max $400,000 with at least 25% down and 25 year amortization. So what good are the tax rebates when they can’t get the prices down?
Why should "they" get the prices down? I don't understand. Its a free market. You have a 69 Camaro in the garage and you want someone to get your price down to 500 bucks because they want it?
rents are coming down for the first time in years due to oversupply or rental units. Obviously due to everyone and their mother becoming a landlord in the last few years.
@@jonflynngo look for a rental for yourself. Research like this will show you the landscape hath changed and there will be an oversupply of tenants for years and years and years. Stop dreaming Jon
I have weekly meetings with a residential property management team and they just confirmed prices are coming down. The rental market is in somewhat balanced territory though
@@jonflynnbalanced according to who? Ten years ago you could find a rental easy, now you have rental bidding wars and many people can end up in shelters or in tents on the street. It is digusting. Balanced measurement yardstick according to who? If ya want to live here ya have to live two or three bodies to a bedroom. Yuck
Just saw an unchanged house in an average community in Niagara go for 200k above 2021 sale price. What is going on? Uneducated buyer? Bad advice from realtor?
The 2008 crash in the US (sub-prime) was a much different than the current situation in Canada. Prices will drop slightly here, then stabilize. There will not be a crash.
You are starting to look pretty desperate there Jon. Now you have to manipulate data just to fit your narrative. And we have a new chart predicting the market, wow! What happened to the last three that you trotted out claiming this was what was going to predict the market based on your technical analysis? None of those have been right why is this new one the right one?
I believe there is great risk in the global economy, and recession (most like depression coming) U.S numbers are fudged. when the stock market corrects minimum 40% the pain will become obvious. Then the buyers market will appear. (still might not be affordable) My thoughts. Thank you for the video.
With the way houses are priced - based on recent sales - and the way capitalism works - maximize profits- the savings will not be passed on to the consumer. Instead the home building corporations will increase their profits and lower supply.
Meanwhile RBC quietly axed their buy now pay later program for consumer goods that targeted low income earners. The banks are tightening up in all areas.
People should be tightening up their spending. I see so many broke people, some of them are familly, spending on useless purchases and lacking basic money managing skills.
Not to be a fear monger 🤷🏻♂️ but we’re entering the greatest depression 🧐 at least in the 30’s people still had money (value) today we have paper and will find no value 😉
Less taxes on homes with currently prices will only help the investors and other people who are able to afford homes that are too expensive. It will do absolutely nothing for the average Joe or lower middle class citizens to be able to afford homes. Disagree with conservative plan as it only benefits the rich or upper middle class as usual.
We were holding off buying for 2 years, following Jon's advice that prices would fall off a cliff IMMINENTLY. Well, that was 3 years ago now. Thankfully we bought. If people follow Jon's "sky is falling" views, they will be waiting forever. Don't forget this is his schtick... he's saying this for views.
Prices are the same or lower than 2 years ago for most places in Canada and if you're in Alberta or any of the other less populated provinces you may have bought at the peak. Patience my friend.
@jonflynn problem is Jon there is video proof of you saying prices have dropped off a cliff....two years ago. You can't keep saying the same thing and then claim you are right.
Where did you buy? Prices have dropped 90k or more in my area 3 times since I’ve been making these videos. Do you think this volatility is normal and sustainable?
Never paid provincial sales tax in Alberta. How about axing CMHC? You know I like your channel and your sets of data but you really shouldn't do political punditry. Partyism is always toxic.
If it gets really bad, and it’s not looking good for the party in power, they will just push those delinquency’s to the rear end of that loan and catch them all up and everything is fine and dandy, it’s called kicking the can once again
Really impressive work, Jon - thank you! I agree with your analysis. Our housing is either going to stagnate for a long time or go down ... but perhaps not to the extent that the US housing market went down in 2008 - the reason: our government is deeply in it. Out gov is the biggest speculator and along with money laundering (there are too many ppl out there that have too much money) and mass immigration (even after cuts), it may not go down the same path as the US market did during the great financial crisis. But regardless ... your work is absolutely impressive.
Canada is a short until 2035. Nice to finally hear Canadians finally talking about Canada's 2008....wtg. fwiw, mkt won't break until it believes Justin is done....
The "get rich quick with _________" comments are sickening on videos that deal with money on youtube. Notice it's always some woman that's being recommended. Scamming bots!
Taxes = Services. Who is going to pay for infrastructure? Not the developers. Then who? Pierre Poutine? He’ll say whatever it takes to get elected. BTW “Common Sense” is directly from the Mike Harris playbook and we all remember how that ended.
@jonflynn. What is the definition of good standing? In Canada delinquency is 90+ days of missed payments, in the USA and the UK it is ONE missed payment!
Watching this video and one youtube ad is about govt of Canada saying it's better to talk to you servicer if you can't make payments... Now I wonder why have a ad like that... Hmmm..
The only thing that will bring the house prices down is a financial crisis. If that happens everybody will be broke, no financing available. If you think everything will be the same but suddenly houses come down 30% so you can step into the market? It won't happen. If the market comes down 30% all the homebuyers will be unemployed, broke or unable to finance. Big investors however, will be buying like crazy. A 30% reduction would represent disaster. As for our kids, just hang in there. In 2030 house supply will come up. AI will maximize efficiency. Baby boomers will be putting massive houses on the market. The family unit and divorce rate will come way down from the 50% mark and again, allow more houses. Will just take some time.
Wait until Trump puts up those tariffs if you want to see real pain. Of those that depend on a job to pay a mortgage, about 5 to 10 percent just lost their house.
Fortunately, my spouse and I were able to pay off our mortgage early. While we were both still employed, we took the money we had been using to accelerate our mortgage repayment and invested it immediately. Thanks to nearly 7 years of saving what would have been our mortgage payment and to maxing out our 401K/403B plans, we were able to retire early. Fortunately, both of our parents instilled in us the need of living within our means.
Thank you for your advice. I know it will help people. we are interested in investments that could set me up for retirement , I mean I've heard of people that netted hundreds of thousands during these crash, I listened to someone on a podcast who earned over $650K in less than a year, what's the strategy behind such returns?
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is the licensed advisor I use.Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Aileen.
From paying for day care and college, to managing mortgage payments. I'm approaching retirement yet inflation is getting worse and recession is biting harder by the day. How can I generate more income to retire with at least $3m for long term care? I have about 750k in savings.
investors like you should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Sophia Maurine Lanting” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up on web, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I'm favoured, Getting my own Truck has always been my Dream for my business. I just acquired 2 recently, earning $32K weekly has been really helpful. I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support Charity Organizations.
As a beginner what do I need to do? How can I invest, on which platform? If you know any please share.
Yes! I'm celebrating £32K stock portfolio today...
Started this journey with £3K.... I've invested no time and also with the right terms, now I have time for my family an…
when someone is straight forward and good at what she does best. People will always speak for them. For me I can would say give Mrs Jenna Brooklyn of finance education a try and you be happy you did
I'm glad to write her tay I do hope she will help handle my paycheck properly☺️☺️☺️
Can I start with as low as $1,000?
Please who is this Mrs Jenna
This sounds so good andI would like to
be a party to this, is there any wayl can
speak with her?
Cut the size of government in half. We are over tax, lowering the federal tax rate to 18% for everyone.
Cut it by 95%
Things would actually get done. Government is corrupt and bloated.
I’m sure the 13% sales tax in Ontario makes inflation feel even worse. It makes everything, except food, cost 13% more.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
10 years from now, when people look back, it will be painfully obvious that today we should have easily seen that the crash had already started. The problem is, no one sees it while it's happening.
A lot of denial. "It's different this time!" 😂
Rather… it’s NOT different this time. The market is ALWAYS “crashing” or “about to crash”, and yet every few years it’s up and up and up ad nauseam.
10 years from now both you and Jon will be still saying the crash is just about to happen.
lol crash coming in Canada for the last 30 years, especially in BC. Meanwhile the shortage of houses is over a million houses short. House prices are merely going to stagnate not crash. Condos might crash though - those are not really homes just monopoly toys, no land and beholden to condo councils.
Home price is not based on construction and taxes cost, but on the stupidity of Canadians, less taxes means only more profit, not a single cent of price reduction.
Um, no.
100%! Only sustained higher rates will correct and bring things real again. When your money is worthless it takes a lot more of it to buy anything
@@supermash1nah he's right. Our housing market is a bubble, it's divorced from fundamentals. These recent changes the liberals did and the conservatives are promising will just add more capital to keep the bubble inflated. This will do nothing to help affordability long term
@@slayerinferno Agreed, it's undoubtedly a bubble, and the "extend and pretend", extended mortgage amortation years, and direct price subsidies the BC government are talking about, will only drive prices up. But reducing taxes on housing will be directly passed on to consumers. Any developer that tries to keep any direct tax reductions will be uncompetitive immediately. Especially now that the market is down and will in my opinion continue to go down. In fact with Trump winning the US election, my gut feeling is Canada will have a recession and our housing market will tank.
Absolute BS just gives Real Estate and sellers more reason to make more profit. Prices have to fall drastically to balance the market.
Interest rates can go up at a moments notice, so house prices, not interest rates, need to drop. Federal immigration policies were and are catastrophic. The renters are gone, the speculators are gone and the baby boomers are getting older by the second. That is a lot of downward pressure on real estate. Add the high volume of undesirable condos coming to market and assignment deposits paid for using home equity lines of credit and I see a progressively worsening problem
Thank you Jon!
I think we are going the same direction as US in 2009, = market crash, we are overloaded with a high debt and economy isn't doing well
immigration numbers went down significantly... i see a lot of negative factors for 2025
and possibly 1 positive if Trudeau leaves!!!!
Only take off the tax if the home is being bought and used as a primary residence
Now don't go using common sense during a Real Estate crash.... we need to bail out the Banks !
Boy Jon , I'm finding it tough paying my bills , no extras for us , no going out to eat anymore , I'm going to drive the same car as long as it runs , this is not what I thought life would be like after year's of working ?
30 years in Canada... went to eat out maybe 20 times...
Yep I don't go out for dinner much anymore either. You really have to budget and plan these days. Debt of all sorts seems to accumulate like the sun rises.
Debts of all sorts???? And who's fault is it.? Not yours obviously?
@@robertduklus6555 Are you hallucinating and having conversations with yourself? LOL!
keep voting Liberal until your homeless
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Regina to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
Can you provide instructions on how to contact your advisor? I'm experiencing erosion of my funds due to inflation and looking for a more profitable investment strategy to make better use of them.
‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Removing the tax seems great, but it also seems like a huge assumption that savings would be passed on to the buyer.
so true, the sellers won't drop the prices to match the tax
@@cindywilson6166 Some sellers won't have any choice.
Won't the builders just pocket that HST savings for themselves? A little skeptical. Also on allow this on primary residences.
The same house my father bought in1963 for 13,500 lock stock and barrel. Id now 265000. Same stucco. Same fence. Rotten and falling down. Hmmm. What a joke. 😅
In Vancouver, the wild thing is a Condo that was built and sold in like 2004 for like 100k is up over 500k, but nobody in this city makes five times as much as they did in 20 years ago. And some of them were leaky to begin with so there is a ton of legacy costs that got sunk into them from water damage.
That's a bargain. M6 dad bought their house in Victoria for $11k in 1971. Would easily sell for $1.5m now. And this is strictly land value - the house would likely be torn down.
@debbielockhart7762 I just built a 2000sq ft post and beam. Before Justin. 110,000 now. Lol
@@ronsykes5035 don't worry, with a PIERRE POILIEVRE GOVERNMENT it will be a trailer!!!
@@debbielockhart7762 What's the land value? The land prices we have now in the second-biggest country in the world are ridiculous. All that BS is based on people's stupidity, on the weird belief that prices always go up no matter what.
F all these politicians. They all have ulterior motives
most of them have their own survival first and everyone else 2nd or 3rd for sure.
@@jonflynn all of them have their own survival first, their children's second, their gandchildren's third, their unborn great grandchildren fourth, their unborn great great grandchildren fifth, their unborn great great great grandchildren 6th, their unborn great great great great grandchildren 7th, their friends 8th, their siblings 9th, u and me 1000000th on the list. BTW they have their own interest in mind with your and my money. It is very VOMIT INDUCING and A PURE CON JOB. Lying and gaslighting is their bread and butter.
Wait - one of the problems is mal - investment in real estate because real estate is tax advantaged.
This desire to be in real estate is what's causing the lack of investment in productivity improving investments.
Won't taking the tax OFF real estate make the tax advantage worse?
You are exactly right. The “conservatives” don’t want to put their money where their mouth is and let the market correct. And before you all tell me the government getting involved was the problem then by all means try to maintain your property rights without police involvement : D
Good analysis. The government sector is now larger than the private sector they govern. Land transfer tax, GST/HST, development fees, permits and property taxes are all at ridiculous levels. Not to mention all the regulatory building governance with their fingers in the construction industries pockets. It's no wonder housing is so unaffordable! You couldn't build a cheap home if you wanted to.
Good point
Would the elimination of HST on new homes truly be passed down to the consumer or simply pad the builders pockets? Would builders automatically reduce their home prices by $100k? Might be better off sending a rebate directly to purchaser.
exactly
One way or the another the buyer Will always get screwed. Taxes, redtape are a killer.
I think this too. Development cost charges by municipalities and "property purchase taxes" would increase too. No level of government wants to give anyone a break. Hey, they've got some extra money! Let's go get it!
Increase goods and services, decrease wasteful government, and eliminate poverty will minimize our focus on housing as a business.
Good luck finding a quality new build these days
My all Family already own their residences but yes we agree and support Pierres tax cut. Canadians are in much needed help.
Hi John, Great Video as always. The data indicates are economy is weaker than the US. Having said that US stimulus through deficit spending is legendary in the US and near non existent on Canada. The good news is our GDP as low as it is is real. Household debt is sky high and far above US household debt. I think the government will continue to cut rates to remove pressure off households.Inflation cannot return with broke over extended consumers. They want to buy everything but just can’t, we have 2.1 trillion in mortgage debt. It’s not going away any time soon.
great comparasing to GFC, thank you
Thanks Jon, another great video. Incredible how much politics has become so important in real estate, but it’s necessary . Many will be shocked the Conservatives have a real plan. 👍😉Huge savings on mortgage & cost of living.
Excellent comparison... The market bottom of the GR in the States was two years later so the renewals in late '25 will be all telling.
Best Canadian real estate channel by far!
Awesome much appreciated
More land needs to be opened up. The second largest country on earth but some of the highest prices makes no sense.
I guess a couple reasons would be Canada only has 1 million square kilometres available to the public. #2 regulations/bureaucracy
Maybe infrastructure costs??? Are you willing to pay more taxes for the poo pipe to the new tax free subdivision!!!😮😮😮
@@buzz4208 Don't forget municipal taxes are exorbitant
Your the best Jon
You’re
@ Your correct
How about getting rid of the property transfer tax for buyers?
I agree
What stopping buyers from bidding the price back up? Buyers are buying based off of monthly payment not total house . A Part of this affordability problem is buyers paying these crazy prices (we can afford the monthly payment)
Well lower tax dont make the debt crisis go away. Almost everyone in Canada is leverage to the neck.
Completely agree Jon, Real estate prices cannot stand this high for long. They gonna be deep down in another months, Condo market is already in a mess isn't?
Credit unions have very low delinquencies. They have very conservative lending policies.
true
We`ve had two rate cute. My variable rat is only 5.7%. When will Fixed rates come down? I low should I rate for the 5 yr fixed rate to go before locking in?
you're probably better off sticking with variable at this point. Talk to an honest mortgage broker to get their opinion. I use either Bill Anderson or Greg Weaver in Niagara, they will tell you straight up.
So if a lot of mortgages in canada are through private lenders then my question is are they being sold to the banks as MBS the way it was done in the states back before 2008? If so those loans are being financialized and may disappear from statistics.
Do we have so many private lenders because a lot of people lost their mortgage and they have to go to these lenders or they just have better rates
Privates are more expensive but more flexible. In a pinch or for say a flip privartes can be good. Many end up getting a 2nd mortgage because the bank won;t give them any more money. Can be a dangerous situations. Mostly I find people haven't adjusted their spending to the times.
Great analysis
Also, clearly credit rating agencies are in on it, municipalities should not be able to find operating expenses with "development charges".
It shows up as revenues on municipality financial statements, but actually it is off the books leverage, because the development charges are loans to developers, and when the project is completed, the mortgager then gets the mortgage. This is municipalities funding operating expenses with loans. It is a hidden source of govt debt. And the credit rating agencies have been completely silent since the pandemic
These deliquency figures do not add up. The number o forced sales coupled with Condos on the market suggests that things are far tighter than the numbers indicate.
I think your points are very valid. And also, why would the federal government be in panic mode and introduce longer CMHC mortgage amortizations and higher borrowing limits to build secondary housing units? Right now, unemployment is slowly rising, inflation is still hurting Canadians, and on top of that, the US just elected Trump who will slap tariffs on our exports. And immigration is quickly going down as nobody wants to move in the shitshow that we are anymore. The housing market's only hope would be that the CAD gets flushed so bad that a loaf of bread would be $50. But in real terms, there's no way prices will increase moving forward until we reset and start growing again. My hope is that we reset properly, home prices go back to 3-4x household incomes and we elect a government that will stop spending like crazy and start focusing on our productivity crisis.
Municipalities fraudulent 'development costs' are the biggest barrier to development other than ancient zoning laws.
Agree with you.
Great analysis!
I'm all for reducing taxes as long as our currency is not being debased to pay for this loss of tax income. My house is paid for. I don't want to pay for other's homes when our fiat currency is debased by more money printing. I think the best thing is remove 90% of the government employees from all level of government and all the red tape and fees they created.
What income do you need to qualify for 1m house as a first time home buyer? Like 350k for the average borrower assuming 20% down. How many 1st time homebuyers that you know have 350k income? So who are we helping? I thought we weee trying to get normal income families into homes??
Jon , Many Thanks for your hard work and awesome contents.
We want to be in line with the USA
Funny that central bank is telling Canadians to go and buy more without addressing affordability. New comers don't have that much money either. Sad state that we expect housing to fuel the economy as stated by BoC recently.
Giving up the Gst on a million doesn't help in Vancouver where homes start over 12- 14 million. How about some help for here and the GTA
good point
It seems to me that debt based financial systems have "delinquency" baked into the very system. The economy demands more monetary units to meet mathematically scaling debt, but the system attempts to only introduce monetary units via the creation of new debt contracts which then demand more monetary units as they mathematically scale.
Keep up the great work Jon, very informative content!
What's a good place for power of sale homes in Canada or ontario
Great work as always
Thank you! Cheers!
Prices ticking up in my neighborhood. 😂. Admit you’re wrong Jon!
Which neighbourhood?
@@jonflynnmiddlesex county/ London
@@rosatipicks haven't you learned yet that Jon is never wrong. You just need to wait a little longer for him to be right.
@@johnnylongstocking128 😂
In 1991 my income was 40k and average bungalow I purchased for 100K. 2.5X my income. Today my income is 100k and average bungalow is 400k so 3X my income.
If these tax breaks on NEW homes are the solution to affordability, those of us who need to sell our current home (that doesn't offer the tax breaks, ie- selling for health or retirement issues) are going to get hammered financially by having to drastically lower our price. I'd hoped for a few dollars to help supplement my retirement (not investor greed) but now there is no such thing as a smaller home for a smaller price. I'm truly stuck in a home I am unable to maintain for health reasons. According to your "purchase formula", my only option would be to sell at a loss and hope I can afford a rental until long term care is my last "roof".
Why don't the builders do their part and cut the costs of these "new homes" that are made out of cheaper quality parts? The builder just passes on some of their fees onto the purchasers anyways. They can't get away with all these record profits.
What about some of these SHOE BOX condos? How can a family raise a kid inside one of those little condos?
They shouldn't even be allowed to build them.
You only think it's a great idea that the government implements these tax breaks in the future because you're a real estate agent. You want to sell houses. Everyone is greedy. In it for themselves.
I support reduced taxes AND more higher density homes.
Nice, thanks for the comment
Great research.....
One fact....Since 2016 most of the mortgage had to go for stess test arround 6%...that mean you can still make the payment
On the other side ...starting this january....the BoC is very active on RepoMarket......$16 billion per day for the last (2) month....that mean the BoC bought mortgage from the bank
to inject money in the system.....
Since the pandemic, the BoC act life the fed: Print money and bailout bank
Jon, cutting the tax would not cut the cost of the house. The builder gets input tax credits that equal almost the exact same amount of the HST (less the $24,000). Therefore, if the tax is axed, the input credits to the builder are also axed... net result zero. If the builder can't claim the input HST credits then is the builder supposed to eat the other $100,000 loss????
The builder will get full ITC for all hst expenses building the house since they’re collecting no HST. They should literally get every penny of HST back on construction and operating costs on homes under $1M
good pt. but do provinces offer input tax credits or some equivalent?
also, if we, the end users, are not charged gst on purchases, then this would at least increase affordability for us
@@jonflynn They will get ZERO ITC if ZERO is charged... An axed tax policy would eliminate the ability to claim ITC. Can't have cake and eat it too. Jon I would expect you as a realtor to understand that... you charge HST on your commissions and therefore you get ITC. If you didn't charge HST on your commissions, then you wouldn't be allowed to claim any ITC.
@@joebazooks Sorry it doesn't work that way.. Poilievre doesn't understanding builders need the HST income to offset the tax they have paid, or base prices must rise. No HST charged means no HST input tax credit are allowed to be claimed. He's a politician, not a tax expert.
Build affordable apartments instead of over priced micro condos. Problem is the lack of options and alternatives. The government needs to build more rental apartments. This would lower rental prices. Condo and house prices would garner less demand if cheaper alternatives were made available. Cheaper rent leads to realistic real estate prices.
A broker friend (works w/developers) says change in taxes will effect builders. Always complicated but I can’t see govt doing this anyway.
Trudeau believes it's the Canadian government's moral imperative to keep inflating housing, he said it out loud in a recent interview...
He thinks it's politically beneficial. It was but now the kids and grandkids of the beneficiaries can't afford a home and it's coming out of the boomers pockets.
Less tax and few regulations are good for economy. Let’s market work out.
We'll be fine
That's our credit not yours not the banks! Can't wait to have taxing authority do complete audits on all promises to pay / securities .
Who uses the light background on Google? Madness.
My numbers on family income tell me that an average home needs to be max $400,000 with at least 25% down and 25 year amortization. So what good are the tax rebates when they can’t get the prices down?
Its suppose to give more room for developper to lower the price... Will see if its work, I have my doubt tho.
Why should "they" get the prices down? I don't understand. Its a free market. You have a 69 Camaro in the garage and you want someone to get your price down to 500 bucks because they want it?
There is a demand supply equation. Go to try to rent anything and then tell us prices will come down "one day"
rents are coming down for the first time in years due to oversupply or rental units. Obviously due to everyone and their mother becoming a landlord in the last few years.
@@jonflynngo look for a rental for yourself. Research like this will show you the landscape hath changed and there will be an oversupply of tenants for years and years and years. Stop dreaming Jon
I have weekly meetings with a residential property management team and they just confirmed prices are coming down. The rental market is in somewhat balanced territory though
@@jonflynnbalanced according to who? Ten years ago you could find a rental easy, now you have rental bidding wars and many people can end up in shelters or in tents on the street. It is digusting. Balanced measurement yardstick according to who? If ya want to live here ya have to live two or three bodies to a bedroom. Yuck
Just saw an unchanged house in an average community in Niagara go for 200k above 2021 sale price. What is going on? Uneducated buyer? Bad advice from realtor?
Definitely uneducated and bad advice.
know so many people who took out Helloc loans and their houses value has gone down ,,,so that's coming to
Good point
So in 10 years the prices will be even higher ?
The 2008 crash in the US (sub-prime) was a much different than the current situation in Canada. Prices will drop slightly here, then stabilize. There will not be a crash.
You are starting to look pretty desperate there Jon. Now you have to manipulate data just to fit your narrative. And we have a new chart predicting the market, wow! What happened to the last three that you trotted out claiming this was what was going to predict the market based on your technical analysis? None of those have been right why is this new one the right one?
I believe there is great risk in the global economy, and recession (most like depression coming) U.S numbers are fudged. when the stock market corrects minimum 40% the pain will become obvious. Then the buyers market will appear. (still might not be affordable) My thoughts. Thank you for the video.
YAY!!!!
Savings directly to the people is always best. Every time the government touches money, they waste it, lose it, squander it.
dilute it
@@bbeamish08 Steal it
With the way houses are priced - based on recent sales - and the way capitalism works - maximize profits- the savings will not be passed on to the consumer. Instead the home building corporations will increase their profits and lower supply.
Meanwhile RBC quietly axed their buy now pay later program for consumer goods that targeted low income earners. The banks are tightening up in all areas.
People should be tightening up their spending. I see so many broke people, some of them are familly, spending on useless purchases and lacking basic money managing skills.
They will make up the shortfall elsewhere..... There's no way the rich are going to lose out on the middle class
Not to be a fear monger 🤷🏻♂️ but we’re entering the greatest depression 🧐 at least in the 30’s people still had money (value) today we have paper and will find no value 😉
Less taxes on homes with currently prices will only help the investors and other people who are able to afford homes that are too expensive. It will do absolutely nothing for the average Joe or lower middle class citizens to be able to afford homes. Disagree with conservative plan as it only benefits the rich or upper middle class as usual.
Thanks the comment and sharing your opinion
We were holding off buying for 2 years, following Jon's advice that prices would fall off a cliff IMMINENTLY. Well, that was 3 years ago now. Thankfully we bought. If people follow Jon's "sky is falling" views, they will be waiting forever. Don't forget this is his schtick... he's saying this for views.
Prices are the same or lower than 2 years ago for most places in Canada and if you're in Alberta or any of the other less populated provinces you may have bought at the peak. Patience my friend.
@jonflynn problem is Jon there is video proof of you saying prices have dropped off a cliff....two years ago. You can't keep saying the same thing and then claim you are right.
Where did you buy? Prices have dropped 90k or more in my area 3 times since I’ve been making these videos. Do you think this volatility is normal and sustainable?
Too little too late 🎉🎉🎉🎉 ship is already below water 🎉🎉🎉
Never paid provincial sales tax in Alberta. How about axing CMHC? You know I like your channel and your sets of data but you really shouldn't do political punditry. Partyism is always toxic.
Haha, I was staying as neutral as possible. I even cut the part out where PP was bad mouthing Trudeau
@@jonflynn Leave it in Johnny! One for the gipper! LOL!
This time it's different... because reasons...
If it gets really bad, and it’s not looking good for the party in power, they will just push those delinquency’s to the rear end of that loan and catch them all up and everything is fine and dandy, it’s called kicking the can once again
Really impressive work, Jon - thank you!
I agree with your analysis. Our housing is either going to stagnate for a long time or go down ... but perhaps not to the extent that the US housing market went down in 2008 - the reason: our government is deeply in it. Out gov is the biggest speculator and along with money laundering (there are too many ppl out there that have too much money) and mass immigration (even after cuts), it may not go down the same path as the US market did during the great financial crisis.
But regardless ... your work is absolutely impressive.
There will be a "gully" in the market
Axe the Tax
Canada is a short until 2035. Nice to finally hear Canadians finally talking about Canada's 2008....wtg. fwiw, mkt won't break until it believes Justin is done....
So axe the tax to help people buy new builds......the rich can only buy new build homes right?
The "get rich quick with _________" comments are sickening on videos that deal with money on youtube. Notice it's always some woman that's being recommended. Scamming bots!
he slipped up and said that would increase prices... and I agree with the Freudian slip
Yeah, if 99% are in good standing, then why foreclousers are on the rise? And more than just 1%?
cant buy a new home in toronto for 1 mill
Taxes = Services. Who is going to pay for infrastructure? Not the developers. Then who? Pierre Poutine? He’ll say whatever it takes to get elected.
BTW “Common Sense” is directly from the Mike Harris playbook and we all remember how that ended.
@jonflynn. What is the definition of good standing? In Canada delinquency is 90+ days of missed payments, in the USA and the UK it is ONE missed payment!
I’m guessing less than 90 days in arrears
Watching this video and one youtube ad is about govt of Canada saying it's better to talk to you servicer if you can't make payments... Now I wonder why have a ad like that... Hmmm..
The only thing that will bring the house prices down is a financial crisis. If that happens everybody will be broke, no financing available. If you think everything will be the same but suddenly houses come down 30% so you can step into the market? It won't happen. If the market comes down 30% all the homebuyers will be unemployed, broke or unable to finance. Big investors however, will be buying like crazy. A 30% reduction would represent disaster.
As for our kids, just hang in there. In 2030 house supply will come up. AI will maximize efficiency. Baby boomers will be putting massive houses on the market. The family unit and divorce rate will come way down from the 50% mark and again, allow more houses. Will just take some time.
Wait until Trump puts up those tariffs if you want to see real pain. Of those that depend on a job to pay a mortgage, about 5 to 10 percent just lost their house.