You overlook one critical factor; War never is logical. - WW1 was completely irrational. - It made no sense for Hitler to try to take all Europe and Russia. - Japan declaring war on USA was crazy. - It made no sense for Argentina & Britain to fight over Falklands. Etc, etc. But it all happened.
The second reason is invalid,if US place a blockade,the west would unnecessarily suffer more than China and in fact China would have Russia supplying them oil natural gas etc to china China has a rock solid relation with Russia why not mention that? Btw IS is selling the same outdated weapons to Taiwan which they have been selling to Ukraine,and these are the Same US troops which failed in Afghanistan south veitnam etc Nobody is going to defend Taiwan Btw the only nation in the region that will go against China is japan and that’s only because of thier historical rivalry with China,South Korea already rejected quad and has refused to go against China,Australia’s nuclear submarine will take more than a decade of make Can you imagine india going all the way to Taiwan to defend them 🤣🤣😂 When China takes over Taiwan,they will also takeover thier semiconductor industry so even the last point is invalid
50 Reasons Why China always wants to Invade Taiwan. Breaking up China is good for the world. TO divide China (PRC) into 5 or more countries, human societies can become peaceful and happy. More and more Chinese who live in Democratic Countries Comprehend the opinion and support it. The Communist Party of China is the biggest trouble maker on the earth. IF China is divided into 5 or more countries, the new governments need good laws to hold the population, which makes the human right of the Chinese go up.
This video’s incorrect in many ways, just in the first 3 minutes! like saying Taiwan “self-declared Republic of China”, and “declared succession”, both of which are factually incorrect. Mistake #1: The Republic of China (ROC) was declared on mainland China in 1911 by the Kuomintang regime when it overthrew the Qing Dynasty. The connection of Taiwan to ROC is due to World War II when the Allies including ROC won over Japan, and made Japan give up Taiwan, which it legitimately received through the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki when Japan won a war against Qing China. In 1945, when Taiwan was “returned” or “retrocessed” to the then “China” (meaning the ROC), the legitimacy of this action in international law is still disputed, and is a basis of the supporters of “Taiwan Independence”, disputed because the ROC unilaterally declared that the previous Treaty of Shimonoseki was to be void because Qing China signed it under force. However, you know you cannot cancel a treaty or contract just because you said you were “forced”. When you lose a war you were made to give up something. It’s like losing a bet. Then you had to pay up. You don’t say, 50 years later, you have another situation when you win over the other person on a totally different issue, then declare, without checking with the other person, the thing you lost and signed over to him, and just say oh it’s mine again, right? Number 2 mistake: “declared succession “. First of all “succession” is a wrong word. The correct vocabulary is “secession”. Taiwan NEVER declared secession from “China”, either the ROC or the PRC (People’s Republic of China, the one people now think of as *China”). The fact is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) declared the establishment of PRC on mainland China in Oct. 1949, which in itself is the secession of mainland China from the ROC, which at the time included mainland and Taiwan. So it is the CCP who seceded mainland China from ROC, so mainland China are the actual “rebel provinces”, rather than Taiwan, and the CCP are the rebels who started the revolution that broke apart what they now claim as the “holy and inseparable territory of China” which must be kept whole, when they’re the one who held the knife so to speak… 😂
Thanks for putting Bibliography down in the description section! It's good that you provide sources of the information you gave during the video. Please keep up the great work! Your videos are really informative and give me a perspective I didn't think of before.
Interesting… let’s hope that reason holds sway. The zeitgeist in 1913 was that the modern European countries were so economically reliant on each other that a war was unthinkable…
@@josebenardi1554 The analogy applies; the ChiCom regime has only one truly reliable ally, that being the NK regime. Russia, Pakistan, Iran may not answer a call from the ChiComs should war break out in E. Asia.
@@FidoZip1988 Hitler had Germany under autarchy, thus keeping them from being crippled by sanctions during wars. When China is so reliant on its export economy, it is completely impossible for them to sustain a war without a perpetual war economy
This was a great summary of the diplomatic, economic and military factors that are continually at play when the issue of Taiwan and China are discussed.
China will just put on a display of milltary exercise and go back to the mainland of China.This is a time of weak leadership in China.Nancy has proved that.But we must get ready for next leader of China.He maybe a very strong leader.
Quite superb. I am a Retired USAF Colonel (O-6) and this is the most cogent and thorough briefing on this subject I have seen on social media. It should be required viewing. Kudos to you.
@@Kamome163hy did you censor me? Afraid of free speech from real intellectuals (double PhD program)? Or do you prefer CCP repression to the marketplace of ideas. Read Mill’s “On Liberty”.
@@Kamome163 bro hello I am a very big fan of yours can you tell me how did you grow your channel within 6 videos that is amazing man. I have a you tube channel but for last 1 year since I have started i do not have any a lot of views If you can tell me how you start getting views so early in the start if your channel that would be a great help. Do you use Google ads also
Well made video! After living in Taiwan for 11 years and observing and researching the situation, I think this video is quite accurate and well thought out!
@@Kamome163 while very accurate, I have to disagree with your assessment. Your assessment is based on mostly on economic reasons. There is nothing to say China will not endure it in order to regain taiwan. I'm surprised you didn't include the porcupine strategy that Taiwan may adopt. If taiwan goes down, the entire east coast of China will be destroyed as well. That seems more effective at giving China a second thought.
Wow, history as I've known suddenly makes sense after 40 yrs! I'm a Filipino-Chinese presently in Taiwan. I've always heard about the strategic value of the Far East including Taiwan and the Philippines, particularly in the maritime interests of eastern and the western powers, but I never really understood it all until this video. This was very well put together and narrated, with great visuals that helped in understanding what was said. For instance, geography and topography in terms of island positions, proximity and depth of intervening water bodies were very clear; and visual perspectives shifted based on the country being referenced e.g. China (N-->S), Taiwan, US (E-->W). I really appreciate this!
@@odinto1 Maritime is about to be over when US is driven out of the main continent. With more advanced land transportation being developed, it will benefit the entire continent especially the vast area in the middle Asia. China, Russia, Iran, Arab world and Europe will be the bedrocks for the renaissance of the main continent.
@@yijiaoqiu1243fever dream. China already made a huge mistake forcing Japan out of their nonaggression stance. The Japanese will make an inscrutable enemy
@@jonasbarbury4013 Do you have any knowledge of history between China and Japan? If Japan dares to harm China once again, what do you think will happen? You guys have no basic understanding of countries that you "don't like". Russia has been repeated invaded by the west since Rome time. You still believe that the pressure from the west will bend the Russian? Similarly, if west think Japan can be a good enemy of China because of its industry, please, think again.
+1 subscriber, this is the kind of quality that is just hard to turn down. I look forward to catching up to more of these videos. Keep making them as you make them, this is great.
8:33 While the whole video is mostly neutral, why when China containment by the US is said like a universal naturality while China's fear of "US collusion" is marked with open and close apostrophes in the subtitles?
Especially when you look at the map again and again, why does this has something to do with the US? Where the FK is US? Why are people okay with the US military expansion, which stretched all the way across the pacific ocean, but not okay with China expending its defence line in front of China's gates?
I think it ultimately comes down to the state of the economy. As long as China’s economy remains stable or growing, the risks of war far exceed its benefits
I think it’s the opposite. China’s economy will fall apart when the demographic crisis hits. When this happens, it will be impossible for China to support a war. They can’t even heat their homes without Australian coal. They can’t afford to go to war when their economy is on the way down.
@@Zei33 Agreed. Unless the top brass of the CCP are a bunch of lunatics, they wont support any kind of military campaign against Taiwan. Even US got sick of dumping their money in the Mideast eventually, and they were fighting guerilla fighters.
ITT: Assuming the CCP aren't lunatics, not knowing that internal struggles promote war as a way to vent discontent by uniting the people against a common external enemy, and not knowing that China's economy will collapse, sinking the global economy.
I’ve only recently discovered this channel and it has rapidly become my favorite on UA-cam. The content, including the maps and clear and concise verbiage are outstanding. I plan to go through all the videos available and, in most cases, multiple times (I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed). I can’t express adequately, in words alone, how much I appreciate what you’re doing.
No, it is not outstanding. It is just middling. It is replete with mistakes and starts with them right on. So many in fact that I would not want to list them here. Possibly you are awed because you are comparing what you heard to what you know, which is a bit of something against nothing. From that perspective it would look outstanding yes, however not otherwise. Pro Chinese Party sympathisers would love how this analysis starts. Unfortunately for them, the history is different than portrayed by this video. Which is why, such videos are never a serious substitute for a serious education.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 Agreed. It would take several videos to set this video straight. Very broadly speaking, it's essentially correct but ignores certain facts which drastically change the conclusion.
Wow, just saw your comment, and thank you so much Stephen! I hope you’re still watching the videos on the channel and if you do, if you have any feedback!
Another great video! I loved the parts of the video when you’d mention the US, pan out the map view and show little lines going out from the US to various countries and then outlining those countries. Very cool and pleasing aesthetic!
@Gregory Jones North Korea was the aggressor and it was stopped by UN forces, not just “Yankees” and thanks to their united efforts, South Korea still exists and North Korean efforts to rule all of Korea were ended
Having recently travelled around all of Taiwan, I can’t see how China could successful invade such a heavily populated west coast without it killing millions of people, many who have relatives in China. It would also have to be extremely repressive so as to reduce it being subject to urban guerrilla warfare on a constant basis. Not to mention the international ramifications as mentioned. No, it will try to corrode from within and play the long game and hope for international resistance to waiver.
Yes. China is very patient and will play the long game. It is not in China’s interests to invade Taiwan at this stage. By delaying an attack it increases its military strength and perhaps as you say hopes international resistance will waiver. Already the west has fallen into the trap of believing its own propaganda that all the countries in the area will pile in against China believing that China is hated by everyone. The west doesn’t understand the Asian mind. The disputes over the islands for instance have been going on for decades. Singapore, Sth Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Phillipines have China as their main trading partner that doesn’t sound like hatred. Sth Korea and Singapore have already said they wont go to war against China. If Sth Korea were to go against China and Nth Korea came in with China, sth Korea runs the risk of being wiped out by its northern nuclear armed neighbour and how long would it take to disable Singapore?
That’s the problem, communist countries have no problem killing innocent people when it comes to war, if US killed a bunch of innocent people during a war with China then alot of people in the US and all over the world would be angry, but if China did the same they would most likely they won’t get the same backlash, that is why going to war with even NK is risky because Kim will easily kill innocent lives by bombing cities like Seoul
@@brianngf2360 maybe yes and no because China doesn't report real numbers, I went to college with alot of students from china and even they didn't even know about the great leap forward or the massacre so yea I can't give you a legitimate answer
The video starts out with an error re Formosa (Taiwan). It had been a Japanese colony, by treaty, since the end of the first Sino-Japanese war in 1895. It remained under Japanese control throughout WWII. The US chose to bypass Formosa rather than trying to invade it. Your statement that it fought alongside the allies against Japan during the war are incorrect. Over 200,000 Chinese and aboriginals joined the Japanese military.
those Chinese were traitors, and deserved to be shot. China will reclaim Taiwan in due time. It's an inevitability. Mostly likely via economic means, if not that military invasion. Taiwan is not of core strategic interest to the states. It is however a national interest for 1.4 billion Chinese. Even those who live over seas outside of china. There is no stopping china on this. When faced with existential threats, populations will suffer greatly to endure an outcome of eventual victory. Taiwan is one of those for the Chinese. Hence china has demonstrated Enormous patience when it came to reunification. China waited 100 years for the Hong Kong treaty to expire before taking over. it "honored" colonial unfair treaties that were signed before the CCP even was a thing. Hong Kong was ceded for 150 years. Taiwan has only been 70 years. so there is plenty of time.
I second what you say. Some young taiwanese were conscripted into the Japanese military during the war. Because of this , some couldn't return to their own country after the war because they had fought for the then enemy. A very complicated situation where families were torn apart simply because the men did their duty.
Keep up the quality man, this is the sort of quality that not many can make and I hope to see you reach the subcount level of CaspianReport eventually!
CaspianReport is ok but lacks in quality and scratches the surface of issues like the latest on Kosovo/Albania unification. James Ker-Lindsay’s channel he did the same video months ago and actually dug into the issue quicker and deeper from multiple angles and went into the constitution of Kosovo etc. Kamome does a way better job than CaspianReport and actually cites his reference material which is great for looking up on our own for us to dig further if we want.
A few numbers: At its narrowest point, the English Channel is 21 miles wide. It can be crossed by a strong swimmer. The Strait of Taiwan is about 100 miles wide. Currents and tides make navigation difficult. On D-Day, the Allied fleet consisted of 6,939 vessels. The Chinese navy currently amounts to 355 vessels, most of them coast guard cutters and patrol boats. The German defenders in Normandy numbered some 40,000, many poorly trained and motivated foreigners. The Taiwanese army includes 190,000 professionals and 160,000 reservists. On D-Day, the Allies enjoyed total air and naval superiority. Also, their enemies were distracted by a much larger conflict with distant Russia. China cannot count on any such advantages.
The Germans may only have 40,000 at Normandy but they had a million men in France. The German made their own tanks, planes.... This is an example of you see what you want to believe.
The Germans were also much more distracted and obsessed with General George S. Patton, the fake army built around him, and the bluffed landing at Calais.
Kudos for making the best video made by westerner I've seen on this topic! No political bs, no propaganda, not opinionated, just facts and logical\objective analysis.
@@Osmanthus839 How to know which is biased and which isn't? This was one based view for sure, I have no backdoor to usa-china relations so how to really know. But people usually search web just to support their confirmation & bandwagon effect biases or algos do it for them without their knowledge. I could think of several reasons why USA *could* sacrifice Taiwan in larger game just to hold on of their power a bit longer. But sure, there are plenty of reasons as of now why china shouldn't do it as of now.
As good as it gets. However theres at least one major yet fundamental distortion on how the balance of peace gone south. If u look into the background at full scale, the narrative would rapidly turn around
That's slap-bang, what international relations are about. There are multiple angles from where to look at a topic. What for one part is an advantage for someone else is a weakness. IMO we are more used to hearing or seeing only one side of the story.
I think Xi, after monitoring the developments in Ukraine, has wisely decided taking Taiwan by force is just not worth it. Taiwan also has a strong military with advanced American weapons and they are well defended by numerous allies like India and Japan. Invading an island would also be much more challenging than a land invasion like Russia and Ukraine.
I actually think the complete opposite is true. After events in Ukraine, PRC would have to believe the chances of a direct US intervention is minimal, as long as China has enough strategic weapons to offer a credible threat of escalation. Without that direct intervention, the success of a military operation is all but guaranteed. Because while the attack itself would be difficult and complicated, for the same reasons, military supply aides from US would also be difficult. There is no cost too great for the recovery of Taiwan in PRC’s thinking, which makes the “not worth it” argument invalid. As far as other “allies”, they would only follow what US does. Therefore, I would say PRC is more confident than ever of a successful military operation. The only thing holding it back is how long the preparation takes, which involves building up reserve of resources, pivot the economy toward internal consumption, develop technology to withstand the embargoes, and build relationships with resource exporting countries to ensure adequate supply in face of a US led embargo. Once China is confident of having prepared for what’s likely to face, the timetable for the military solution will be set.
Lol Russia don't have enough population so they are caution. In case of china They will have more people than you will ever have bullets. How much can you kill? Look at the Korean wars. How Chinese with rifle chased away all United Nations and USA with high-Tech weaponry. You don't have idea how communism mentality works.
@@Kamome163 China is a land grab opportunist. Thus, she is constantly sensing and detecting any weakness in her opponents to make her move. Land grab in South China Sea would never happen if Barack Obama showed signs of strength in foreign policy. Similarly, Crimea could not fall to Putin's hands if Barack Obama were Ronald Reagan. Oh by the way, Australia could be like Tibet next when the opportunity presents itself. Therefore, the Aussies should never let their guard down.
@@vsiegel Volker, look at China's aging group of military-age men, look at the map, and think again about Chinese ambitions. La Hy is absolutely correct.
@@patriciawilliams1232 I think I do not understand the Chinese situation. I see that it was ambiguous, my point was only about Putin and his potential relation to Reagan. I did not mean to imply something about China, sorry.
An additional consideration of an invasion is the management of the aftermath irrespective of whether the invasion is successful. With seaports, airports, land logistics, power stations, communications and governing sectors mostly devastated, neither China nor Taiwan would have much left to provide any benefits. Rebuilding would take years and costs would rack up in hundreds of billions of dollars. Take the semiconductor industry you mentioned, any disruption in power supply would wreak havoc on the production lines and subsequent order fulfilment for all downstream products. The flow on effect would be unimaginable for every country in the world.
When the allies attacked both Sicily and Normandy in WW2, they did so after ensuring that their aerial and naval preponderance was massive. They dominated in the sky with thousands of planes and over the seas with thousands of ships. Both Germany's and Italy's efforts in those armaments had been practically reduced to nothing. Seaborne invasions could then take place. This is a chess game in which China suffers from many disadvantages especially if Taiwan were to take its own self-defence seriously enough to train its population to fight in its own island state's defence. China cannot start to reduce any single armament that Taiwan possesses unless it engages in open warfare, whether it calls it by some absurd name as Putin has done or another or nothing at all. The moment that that happens, China will find itself assaulted by Japan, the USA, Australia, probably the rest of NATO and possibly India. So China has to concentrate all its Taiwan invasion force on a narrow front, which concentration will give itself away right on for China's enemies have their eyes on her from space, so that a military buildup would be spied, same as Putin's was and would give defence ample time. But China would have to look out and defend other areas of its shoreline. Moreover, a massive amount of its economy and its people are easily reachable by her enemies' airpower and China itself could be subject to a seaborne invasion given the massive force projection of aircraft carriers and their powerful air wings. Right on, China will lose trading with all its enemies and its economy will stutter both in reduced income from sales as well as in raw materials required for production, from which it will be starved. China would be infiltrated and disaffected nationalities and creeds within her would be urged to rebel and secede fromt the majority Han population. The invasion force itself would easily need 5 hours to cross during which time it would be pummelled by surface ships, submarines and airforces with the Taiwanese reinforced by others ready to give any remaining landing forces the firing welcome of their life. China needs to weigh this extremely risky operation against the very present possibilities that it might lose, might lose big and all its government might find itself attacked internally, because the myth of its unbeatability would have vanished. If I were China I would continue to grow and live in peace, prospering with each passing year. Rest assured that America would resist China over Taiwan. The best reasoning for saying that is that America would much better prefer to wage war on China from Taiwan and Japan, having whole populations and their territories and materials and military power behind her back than let China win and consolidate leaving America open to even more attacks from China and having to defend from her Hawaiian shoreline. Russia will not move to help China militarily as the European side of NATO will put Russia in checkmate, North Korea neither as South Korea will chew it up and spit it out. Pakistan neither, as India will use the aggravation as an excuse to invade either Pakistan or China or both. I see China as in a very weak military situation, which is reflective of its weak international political position. America/Europe/Taiwan/South Korea/India are very populous, very rich and very technologically advanced nations, not to mention The Philippines as a base (population 110,000,000) and Australia is technologically on a parity with the USA/Europe and though having a small population, has a territory that is very minerally rich and bigger than the size of India. China is already noticing that with just some military hardware aid to Ukraine, Russia has lost around 50,000 troops and 100,000 wounded fighting an average army that it attacked from across the border without having had to cross any sea. Imagine what will happen to China when it is not only hit by western military hardware but the West starts fighting there with its own soldiers/sailors and pilots. Chinese had for many years a single child policy. There will be millions of ageing Chinese families with their single boy lost. And it will not finish there, for wars have their own devil driving them. China will be invaded and be defeated same as Hitler was and same as Japan was defeated. There will be a military presence and China will be politically re-educated into a democracy, as there is a chance that Russia will if Putin would be stupid enough to touch Nato territory.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 what a load of speculative rubbish. Are you a military expert, or just some one who thinks he knows it all? It appears your expert knowledge wasn’t used in Afghanistan. It also doesn’t take into account that China might not act as you predict. For one thing you can bet the Chinese are quite capable of sinking American aircraft carriers. ( the Pentagon says they are sitting ducks) you say China suffers from many disadvantage but don’t see any disadvantages to the Americans. The Pentagon has warned that in the event of a war with China America would lose badly. It appears your analysis is based more on typical American hubris than logical outcome. Perhaps you play a lot of military computer games. If you were to take past history America has never fared well against a determined enemy even though better equipped. It only successes have been against smaller poorer countries like Panama, Grenada, Libya, Serbia, countries that couldn’t fight back. If a one billion dollar carrier goes to the bottom of the Sth China sea we will see what effect it has on the moral of the bravest soldiers in the world.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 If China attacks Taiwan, no one will come to fight for Taiwan!! America and NATO? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! You mean like America and NATO fighting the Russians over Ukraine? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!
Sound analysis. Agree too with the comments below about the use of graphics to show perspectives from differing national viewpoints; the world often looks different when sitting 'in the other person's chair'. Really enjoyed your presentation and thought it a very useful contribution to current security debate.
@@KyouKo-x7g difference is, the majority of Taiwan wants to stay independent from China. Of course the US will take advantage of that seeing that it depends on Taiwan for trade. Doesn’t mean that it’s nefarious. With Cuba the political and societal climate was different than that of Taiwan and it’s history. If Taiwan wants help then the US is going to oblige. Perhaps the Chinese government should stop trying to take what doesn’t want to be took. If they want independence and their way of life than let them have it. Either way if this war breaks out all sides will carry tremendous losses and the world economy and the people of this earth will suffer.
There's another reason: any military invasion/occupation will be way too expensive. Modern weaponry is now so complicated that the procurement of sufficient quantities to fight a protracted war will bankrupt even the wealthiest of nations. Take the fighter plane. In WWII, a P-38 Lightning cost the modern-day equivalent of $3M, and that's on the high end; the famed P-51 Mustang costs less than $700k. Modern-day jets easily go over $60M, 5th and even 4.5 gens push $100M a piece, and they're not firing .50 cal bullets either; a single sidewinder can cost as much as half a million dollars, AMRAAMs are over $1M a pop. The economic compromises needed to support a modern-day war machine against an equally matched adversary (ie. Anything more than some insurgents with AKs) will be financially crippling for all parties involved. Everything is a dreadnought nowadays. Much cheaper to just keep rattling sabers and filing diplomatic complaints.
Hmmmmm. They did say before 1914 that a major war between Europeans nations was impossible, because it would be too expensive and economically disruptive. Well, Hom. Sap. found a way!
These numbers are only applicable during peace times as they use the military industry as a means to grow the US economy. It's not the only one but it's a major contributing factor. On wartime, printing machine will truly go crazy and the numbers won't matter anymore as winner will take all.
You are right ... Too expensive to have war.....plus it won't guarantee you success as well... Just look at what is happening to USA in Afghanistan..... Now adays people having modern war technology just to warn each other to avoid war.....
Too logical. People who start wars do so for emotional, irrational reasons. Xi was sobbing at the podium about Taiwan recently. He did not sound like a rational person.
People with power will never be happy with the power they have they always want more. If they take Taiwan they will control also the semi-conductor industry and if they do the world is fucked.
Great video. Well said. I’m a Chinese mainlander and I agree most of the points your brought up. I guess the key is - yes, China wants to prioritize economic growth at current stage and therefore would not disrupt the status quo with Taiwan (Republic of China). However, when the growth slows down, Chinese government would prioritize things like income equality, access to education and healthcare and foreign affairs like Taiwan-related issues. Actually, they already begin.
already begin because China's economy has slowed back to Mao times. CCP knows not to invade taiwan because it would mean a regime change, as the 1.2 billion PRC residents know the truth they're being told by the CCP censorship to ignore. THis isn't Ukraine. Mike Drop.
China is an aging country and because of political concerns, they can’t lower the retirement age, is war really the best option for china? I don’t think so, status quo relations are already benficial to both Taiwan and china
taiwan shouldn't be overly reliant on the US, my country learned it the hard way with scarborough, they'll tell you they're your "ally" but will only act on it if it will prove beneficial to them.
Well, if our country (Philippines) wants to be treated with respect and a partner of the United States, then we should invest in our security, our political field is often embattled with different issues yet neglect our national security. We overuse the "ally" part with the United States to the point that we are seen by the international community as a useless ally and don't contribute to the cause. The United States always delivers being a partner and an ally, how about us?
A correct, honest and valid point. The meaning of "ally" is mutual. It is understandable and acceptable that the Philippines does not have the physical power (army, navy and air force) to stand shoulder to shoulder with the US, however they should have the moral commitment to do so. @@glennskaalaman
You can not slap your "ally" in the face (Subic and Clark, insult him ("Obama is the son of a whore") and wipe your dirty slippers on his floor ($37 million USD in direct aid 2000 US Marines with 20 aircraft on the ground within 2 days, an entire US Navy aircraft carrier strike, group including more than 20 ships, a hospital ship, 13,000 personnel, 12 V-22 Ospreys, 5 KC-130s, 2 C-17s, and numerous helicopters arrived off Tacloban within 3 days) without so much as an official "Thank You, America" or blame the US for your inability and unwillingness to stand up to defend your own territory. The US isn't perfect, but neither is the Philippines. I could go on, but I think you get the point.
@@tabuilder the mentality of the majority of Filipinos is we should always ask Uncle Sam for help when we are in need and blame the US for not helping us in certain situations, what kind of an ally we are if we thank Uncle Sam for helping us and throw tantrums when they didn't. This mentality reflects the majority of the Filipinos and the lack of accountability within ourselves is the reason why the Filipino society is slowly destroying itself.
There is no stalemate....there are 2 million Taiwanese, some entire three generation families living in mainland China. Your choice of word is ludicrous.
I really don't think Xi gives a damn about what the international community would think if he were to invade Taiwan. He has other reasons not to invade but condemnation is not one of them.
@@AC-he8ln Yeah, great point. It wouldn't surprise me if he was like Stalin, Kim or Hitler, paranoid of their upper staff or anyone that they deemed a potential threat.
@@Kamome163 me again . I know from your previous videos what your IQ level is at , so I will make it short and simple to accomodate your intellect : WE CHINESE WILL GO NUCLEAR AND WILL GO WORLD WAR THREE over taiwan island. you can lie what you like and con who you like , but make sure you have the guts to come try us when our forces retake taiwan island. TALK IS CHEAP ！
@@tantan2132 - Hello, Wolf Warrior, I'll see your paltry 350 warheads with my countries 5,550 warheads. You still wanna brag about "going nuclear" over Taiwan? Nukes are only good as a deterrent for war dingus, if you you use them offensively, the rest of the world WILL gang up on you and glass your whole country, hell, I bet the US could even get Russia to lob a few your way. Read a book on international relations or something before you start spewing your BS nationalistic rhetoric on the internet.
Awesome analysis n commentary of the Taiwan - China global situation n the related countries impacted by them. Kudos. New subscriber because of this vid. Anticipating ur next one. Peace
I tend to watch UA-cam in order to unwind and turn off the brain mostly.. This is quality content, well presented, thanks for the thought provoking take on the current situation.
One other factor not mentioned is internal dissent in CCP. While Zi certainly appears all powerful and quickly suppresses any dissent in the party, there are plenty of high ranking government and military officials who do not like Zi or his aggressive policies. They are silent for now, but a serious misstep by Zi (such as invade Taiwan) he might face a serious CCP backlash. Furthermore, The disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine must have all the cadres in CCP thinking twice.
93% Chinese is supportive to CCP as Western poll shows, but 99% Chinese is supporting unification war, but you are right CCP would think twice after Russia's war on Ukraine, like once CCP wages real war then CCP would attack harder, CCP won't wait for US to help. YOU SHOULD HEAR REAL VOICE ON WEIBO.
Topdown countries, only provide paper tiger armies ,have to spy and steal and a lot of noise. Nothing wrong with the chinese population, more with their leaders.
While I feel this is still a sound argument, I feel it's a bit old fashioned. Currently when discussing invasions everyone always resorts to old world logic of man on man combat or arms vs arms combat first. Nothing about modern society suggests that an immediate boots on the ground approach would be the way to go about things. Boots on the ground would only be needed to hold the land, which would be far easier when an implemented invasion could be done with little technological resistance. Another issue is assuming casualties matter, which.. they don't in the grand scheme of things in this situation. Take an emp first strike as an example (which is far more crude than what I feel would actually be implemented.) This already knocks out most defensive capabilities that could be mustered against them. Most of the resistance would be then left up to soldiers fighting without tech, against soldiers with tech, or for civilians to attempt revolt. Yes, the argument can be made that "well China won't do this because of threat of retaliation by other nations".. which.. doesn't really check out when considered rationally. The same logic used for that argument can be used for why they wouldn't face retaliation, nations simply won't physically engage in retaliatory actions for fear of triggering an all out world war. This would give China plenty of stretching room to do as it pleases until someone actually threatens action (and plans to actually do something instead of posture or impose sanctions.) By this time however there are already countries that would be standing by them, making this whole thing not so cut and dry "well they'll receive retaliation", thus unlikely. Any country planning on stopping them would either need to be prepared to actually engage in nuclear warfare (unlikely), or immediately and swiftly respond in kind (also unlikely.) And all of this is assuming they go about this in a "brute force" manner and just openly emp followed by attacking, instead of covertly shutting the grid down and destabilizing their social systems before hand, which nations like China have already proven is easily done. Simply put the "wont" claim while backed up with valid arguments, is held together with lack of imagination, and the belief that people (nations even) aren't willing to suffer/risk injury in order to be great. History has shown this time and time again, and yet hopeful optimists keep dreaming that everyone will just play nice simply because.
@@NexusProd1gy Another good point, and as it seems he has a bit of a god complex.. I think it's safe to say he wouldn't approach such a situation with rationality and a clear head.
The mainland could do an emp strike. If they want to pillage the island for tech, among other things, then they would have fried what they wanted. Especially the TSMC company.... Small scale neutron blasts in some non-critical cities would not be surprising though.
Thank you for a brilliantly explained background !! Let us hope your optimistic predictions on future development will be confirmed - no PCR invasion of Taiwan. Regards from Jens, Oslo
So the Tiawan Straits are 100 miles wide with strong currents and tides. I have heard it said that there is a time window , in the fall, where sea conditions are suitable for a landing craft operation. What is this time window? Is it the month of November? Thanks for all you do.
This video is now outdated. Need to revise on several fronts like PRC’s breakthrough in Chip technology as such it is no longer at Taiwan’s dictation like supply & pricing. China’s fast progress in military might has changed the war zone landscape completely.
The global shutdown of Russia came as a shock to Russia and I'm sure it blew China's mind as well. China's very unstable economy cannot risk the west decreasing Chinese imports. There are many countries hoping China takes action. Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Mexico would benefit hugely from a conflict. China knows this and can't afford to lose customers that will not come back once gone.
The west cannot afford to decrease Chinese imports. If the Chinese economy collapses, so does the west. That’s why the west keeps on talking about decoupling. Because they can’t make a move on china that won’t totally destroy the west. They entirely depend on china. And right now they’re even asking china to bail them out of another recession
China is different from Russia. China doesn't care about the economy as much as you say. The Chinese believe that there will be better development after the Taiwan issue is resolved.
You should really check how big the economy of China is. ASEAN country combined is only $10 billion but China alone is 100 billion trade... where your assumption come from China economy is going down. Anti China economists have been said for the past 10 years to wish China goes down to flames but China has full industrial power as well self efficient as the west has been smear and sanction China tech for a long time... another thing.. go to China for once to find out how people lives and look at China economy using your own eyes rather just listen to media. Trust me they lie. China is no longer 1970 poor country...
About Japan's laws and Abe administration: few years ago, Japan Palarment passed a a law that Japan can engage in Military operations overseas IF Threat be proven a threat to Japan itself I am sure the islands situation fits this
@@jedaye47 WWIi was 70 years ago also again Japan would do thst only In case China attacked Taiwan what would make Self-defence instead of imperialist attack
Although I'm aware of the situation with China, Taiwan, and Japan. This video gives a more realistic, and optimistic understanding of this situation. Some how I knew that an all out war between China, and USA was not likely.
Having lived an international life. I think we all bask and cheers each other on the glory of global friendship in most places. It's really just a few outliers who still think hurting your own people for their own good is on the right side of things. We all know assholes trying to sell worthless and used-up ideals. It's funny geopolitically how they are all primarily from Russia and mainland China these days. At least the USA can hate itself, make fun of itself, and still be patriotic because we can.
You covered many great reasons. This was a very informative video. Having lived in Taiwan for over 10 years I can truly say there are many more reasons why this theory is a strong one. The fear mongering must stop.
@@twhis9843 Can you tell me why you consider this fear-mongering? 1. Xi Jinping says that reunification must occur within this generation. 2. China has Taiwan parliament copy as a military training prop. 3. China is claiming a huge area of water against international rules. 4. Jet fighter incursion look as much like training as they do messaging. 5. China-India standoff occurred in 2017 & again for the last 20 or so months. In effect, China appears to be attempting to expand in all directions even if "gently". The ostrich defense isn't going to work with China having the economy it does.
In 1940 after Hitler defeated France, he was considering invading England. The English Channel is only 30 kilometers wide and he wouldn't risk it because he couldn't get control of the air. The Taiwan Straights are 170 kilometers wide making an invasion undertaking very problematic !
@@Kamome163 @Kamome me again . I know from your previous videos what your IQ level is at , so I will make it short and simple to accomodate your intellect : WE CHINESE WILL GO NUCLEAR AND WILL GO WORLD WAR THREE over taiwan island. you can lie what you like and con who you like , but make sure you have the guts to come try us when our forces retake taiwan island. TALK IS CHEAP ！
Problem 1, germany dont have the air superiority, Problem 2, germany dont have the navy Problem 3, germany dont have the precision missile technology that could target the queen's bathroom Problem 4, germany isnt a place where the entire capitalist world invested in and where their money is Problem 5, germany elite troop was vanquish by the communist. so the nazi germany wasnt even come close to what is happening now
Nice analysis but with due respect, I found the "5 reasons" unconvincing. The problem is that it is based on typical western/democratic world resoning and placing too much emphasis on assuming rational thinking. That's not how undemocratic and dictatorial regimes operate. Just think of Chamberlain's appeasement policy before WW II, second guessing Hitler and thinking that it is not in his interest to start a war after he's gotten most of what he wanted (redrawing European borders). That's not how authocratic leaders think. They have no problems imposing hardship on their people and just use force to crush any dissent. Then, they amplify the siege mentality with their propaganda, so people who otherwise wouldn't agree can be rallied because "our nation is under attack, we have to stand together". Also, China has enormous internal resources to get by, even when isolated. Any economic blockade woul'd hurt other countries at least to the same degree or probably a lot more. The world became addicted to cheap and abundant goods from China to such degree that in some product categories, China has virtual global monopoly and the capability of other nations to produce the same goods have disappeared. Even if they can build up those capabilities, how long would that take? China even cornered the world in some materials, having well over 50% of rare earth elements mining. Some of these are vital materials for high-tech weapons manufacturing. Not only that, but countries would be hurt to different degrees by the economic sanctions so they couldn't even agree among themselves about those. Plus, there would be enough countries opting out of, or quietly sabotaging the sanctions that China could still do some trade and have access to additional resources. For example who would Russa side with? They are not great friends of America at the moment and are they worrried enough about the rise of China? Another unpredictable element. What is also at play is the traditional, culturally rooted face saving. Taiwan has always been a serious thorn in the side of the PRC leadership and they just don't forget about these things and it just keeps festering in their minds. Finally, countries who have been at times truely mighty and powerful (like the old Chinese Empire!) feel entitled to have at least the same level of influence in the world as at their height of power. That influence is also subject to overstatement in the national "memory". No country will measure themselves based on when they were weakest. This can also be a strong propaganda weapon within the country. In the end, I DON'T THINK CHINA WANTS WAR but they want to push the boundaries as much as possible and project their increasing power and influence. The danger is more in the situation inadvertantly escalating and snowballing into something truely serious. A bit like the Cuban Missile Crisis which was a very close shave! I'm disappointed that well into the 21st Century, there's stil so much political instability and so many causes for concern.
I 100% agree, though I would argue that China probably does want a war - they want Taiwan, and they want it bad. And with as politically unstable the United States and the western world is at the moment, now is the best time for China to make moves - and that worries me.
@@117Jorn They also want Vladivostok. The problem is if expansionism is walid option, because it is extremely easy to outplay yourself, as history of Russia prove constantly. I could be mistaken, but I always assumed China play long game? Actually normalization of relations with Taiwan, is only feasible way to reunite with them.
There is no conceivable economic advantage to any party in the region to launch a military attack for the purposes of invasion. In a global economy, markets would be devastated. A losing proposition for modern economies, particularly the PRC which thrives on global trade.
Great analysis. No political bs because in the world stage, there are no democrats or republicans, only Americans. Looking at geopolitics from a macro scale, democrats and republicans are aligned in terms of US national interest. China maybe the answer to solve US polarization.
Excellent video. Over 20 years ago, an old gentleman told me about the strategic importance of Taiwan to China. This is the real reason China will never give up on Taiwan. All the people who think it has to do with democracy are just idiots.
It’s easy to ascribe to a realist foreign policy and claim it’s all Cold strategy but you can’t ignore ideology in this. to china, taking Taiwan is tantamount to winning the Chinese civil war. To the ccp, the civil war never ended. Any Chinese leader to who takes Taiwan in their lifetime will go down in history as the communist party leader who finished what mao couldn’t. To America, defending a strategically important island is great but America really loves being a protector of democracy. Americans take pride in their country as the arsenal of democracy and want to promote these values abroad against tyranny. This was an American ethos since ww2 and the Cold War. It’s easy to forget that humans have their own biases when it comes to international relations
@@BeaverChainsaw the world needs to remind America that democracy led America down 70 years of unnecessary wars at the expenses of foreign civilians. Bush who recently denounced Putin for the war in Ukraine accidentally slipped and cited Iraq instead of Ukraine when talking about Putins unjust war.
@@ruoyuli4091 Yes, Bush did do that. You are correct, however, that was a mistake.. he wanted to talk about Ukraine, that was one of the topics of that speech. I'm impressed that you are using this as an argument. Secondly, democracy lead U.S.A through many disasters and wins throughout history, there are more wins than disasters, but as anything in life, the negatives usually outvoice the positives. As a quick example for this; there are more law abiding citizens in the U.S.A than unlawful citizens, and still, unlawful citizens get a bigger voice in most news outlets. Overall, I can guarantee you that many Americans still hold the government for blame for some of the disasters in the middle east, Americans themselves are the biggest fighter against the government. The problem is that you, or any other foreigner(assuming you are a foreigner), believes you have any voice in our government. You don't, only Americans and people that are in America have a voice here, and can change things here. Other nations and their leaders will never be able to beat down America's pride, only Americans can do that. I am against the wars in the middle east. However, if you try to understand the perspective of the U.S.A on the reasoning behind that war you will comprehend that at the time it was needed. 20 years? I don't think 20 years was necessary, but we definitely needed to go and kill some terrorists.
@@BeaverChainsaw if that is the case, then it Taiwan and their people to choose their fate. Not governed by force from China. If Taiwan wants independence, it's their choice to air it. The world will support them. Yes, there's only one China. But there's also Taiwan, if China wants to take it, then do it. We all know what it will cost China both diplomatically and economically. And we all know that Taiwan has friends that help defend against any invading army and help them destroy it. Most likely, that government will fall.
Its becoming less feasible to treat international politics as a PC-strategy game, but I think humans will always find new ways to exploit the system and advance their own interests at the expense of others. So even though China might not try to take Taiwan, or other countries, by conventional military conquest, there surely are plenty of ways for them to impose their influence on others.
@@craigb8228 blowing up cities and killing it's people isn't a very good way to absorb an economy. Trade relies on partnerships. Why would Taiwan's partners wait patiently for China to rebuild factories and train new workers?
well done video I also liked how you rotated the map so you can see from Chinese perspective. I think this video should be subtitled also. "5 reasons why China would look stupid after invasion of Taiwan". I hope Taiwan stays independent. this has kept the peace in the world for more than 5 decades.
At Minute 16:05 Why didnt you also point out the economic dependancy of Taiwan on China after well describing it vice versa? Wouldn't it be interesting to know, after you mentioned the "intertwined economy" and that they both "have come to rely on each other"... at min.16:07??? But like this it seems like a one sided portrayal of the situation.
Taiwan relies on Chinese manufacturing and goods to be imported to produce their products and feed their people. It's more cost-effective for Taiwanese companies to import over shorter distances and cheaper means than it would be from other closer allies.
Has anyone considered the complexities and difficulties involved in a war where the soldiers on both sides shared the same language, history, culture, life experiences, etc?
@@Kamome163 Among other things. Both have been sending each other millions of tourist, business travelers and workers over the past decades. From Taiwan's Official Gov website: "Today, Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China. Between 1991 and the end of March 2020, approved investment in China comprised 44,056 cases totaling US$188.5 billion. In 2019, the value of cross-strait trade was US$149.2 billion. In that year, travelers from China made 2.68 million visits to Taiwan."
There’s been plenty of civil wars throughout history all over the world. Perfect opportunity for you to read up on the complexities and difficulties they caused.
Thank you. I learned a lot! I hadn't understood the strategic importance of Taiwan to both the U.S. and China. I wish newscasts on TV would provide this type of understanding.
I did not scroll down through the comments to see if this point was raised but of course Taiwan was a colony of Japan during WWII so it technically fought against the Allies -- Japan conscripted many Taiwanese men to fight in its navy as they were Japanese colonial subjects. But it is of course accurate to say that the Republic of China was on the side of the Allies. The video highlights the island of Taiwan when the narration mentions the Republic of China fighting alongside the Allies, but of course it should be focusing on China (or "mainland" China, as some call it) because at the time, Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT were still over there. It's an interesting distinction, Taiwan and the R.O.C.! Now, on to the rest of the video!
@@gracelim2336 Nah. The United States doesn't have to invade its own states and the states don't have their own military. Communist China is only harassing Taiwan over ego and control.
@@bryancasper4402 The Japanese people were originally from China. The First Emperor of China sent a group of very smart Chinese to North East Pacific to find an Anti-OldAge medicine so that he could forever. Unable to find it, they were afraid to go back to China. So they settled on an Island now known as Japan. They married the locals similar to the aboriginals in Alisan Formosa.
@@gracelim2336 Except it isn't. The vast majority of Taiwanese people do not consider themselves a part of China as you are defining it. China is like a couple of stupid parents who try to control their adult children by not letting them make their own decisions. The Taiwanese "moved out" a long time ago. Mainlander's who fall for PROC propaganda simply have no clue what's really going on. Even if China somehow invades and takes over the Island, it won't matter. They've already lost.
If Taiwan wanted to guarantee freedom, it would adopt the Swiss military paradigm. Every man is a soldier. Every man is well trained in arms and keeps a rifle and ammunition in his home. The time for other countries to depend on USA to fight for them is over.
@@johnm7267 No contraction. Hitler's lust for power and uniting the Germanic peoples was deterred by a standing populous, heavily armed.Hitler's first goal was to unite the Germanic peoples. 3 million armed men lead him to by-pass only Switzerland.
This is the first video I've seen that mentions the importance of Japan. There is a huge reason why the U.S. stepped in and rebuilt Japan following WWII. Japan's ruling elite have never forgotten this. Think of Japan as a ferocious guard dog protecting Taiwan's interests. The Chinese have not forgotten how easily Japan invaded and occupied much of the country during WWII. Although I'm no expert on this, I do believe this is one reason that China dares not touch Taiwan in any way, shape or form.
Though I agree, you're still overestimating modern Japan's willingness to be a "guard dog". Japan did take a lot of Chinese territories during WW2, but that was a unified warlike fascist Japan hellbent on militarization against the China who were at the time was fragmented by a civil war between PRC and ROC and lots of other local warlords and used mainly world war 1 hand me down weapons from their western allies. Modern Japan does not have the same attitude the Imperial Japan of the past had. They have become hardcore pacifists who do not want war. The country itself technically doesn't even have it own military on paper due to restrictions. Make no mistake, Japan is still a scary entity for China. Its "Self-Defense Forces" still boasts equipment that is well above average to highly advanced that China would not easily intimidate them. But the current political climate and opinion toward war make me doubt their commitment to deploy troops beyond their territories (like taiwan) and risk escalating the conflict with China.
@@paulthenotsogreat8118 I agree that Japan has changed a great deal from its Imperial past. The same thing can be said about many countries. But, to say that this way of thinking has totally vanished from that country would also be a mistake. It's there. It may have been beaten back and conquered, but it's still there. It's the same story with Germany. Every once in a great while you see small bands of neo Nazis popping up here and there. Fascism is gone, but to say the thought has been totally wiped out is also wrong.
can you understand why CCP attacked USA India Soviet and Vietnam in last Cold War? it's all about sovereigty, if Taiwan abandon ROC title then PRC would attack immediately. Chinese would view American as white Japanese to steal Taiwan again.
This is a great video man. I’ve always told my parents and family that China definitely wants Taiwan to be part of it, yet would never attempt to take it back because of the difficulties of actually attacking not even mentioning the economic and global view of it. Thanks for putting this into a video so I can have you explain it instead of explaining it myself every time 😂
The author or owner of this video lack the knowledge of Putin Ukrainian game in relation to China and Taiwan. The Putin/Xi’s plan is to confuse the continued provocation of US hegemonism
@@jackogrady6544 obviously from China, Taiwanese netizens would never use Simplified Chinese. Even though there are some Taiwan citizens that supports unification, especially businesses, they still behave and use input methods as usual Taiwanese. However, I have a Taiwan friend and classmate, he seems convinced Taiwan cannot be defended, and its only a matter of time that China unified Taiwan. As such, he still keeps his Malaysian citizenship, despite having a Taiwanese family (his father is from Taiwan and his mom is Malaysian, according to him, his father is the former secretary of Transportation ministry) and spent many years in Taiwan.
China will only invade if the status quo is not maintained at it feels that Taiwan is drifting from it. In 1990s, Jiang Zemin offered Taiwan nominal unification, where Taiwan keeps its democracy, its systems, its army, but it can send representatives to Beijing to the government, and confirm it is part of China. The issue is, the status quo is slowly being changed as the USA is encouraging Taiwan to inch towards independence. At this point, war is likely because what the USA says about the one-China policy does not match its actions in encouraging Taiwan independence. If the USA wants to prevent war and maintain the status quo, it should reign in Tsai and her DPP from making moves towards independence. Taiwan can remain as Taiwan with her democracy as long as she says she is part or is China. I recommend this video by US experts on the issue: ua-cam.com/video/HNWTknTFNS4/v-deo.html&ab_channel=WatsonInstituteforInternationalandPublicAffairs
Thank you for including Trump when explaining the U.S. support of Taiwan. I will say that continuing to back Taiwan is a good move on Biden's part. I'm not a Biden fan at all, but let's give credit where it's due for both sides. You don't have to go against everything a president does just because you don't like them. Focus on what you value. Think for yourself.
Thank you, Keaton! There's a lot of people who should read your comment!🙌
3 роки тому+3
@@chasseausanglier3390 The PLA’s performance in the 1979 war was so bad, even Vietnamese commanders were surprised, according to some sources. This was a result of its reliance on Korean War-style infantry assault tactics, due to the operational inflexibility and stagnation of military thought in the PLA. The layout of the command structure, and the infrastructure that supported it, could not support maneuver warfare by smaller units of higher-quality forces.
@@chasseausanglier3390 Nah none of that. US in Vietnam war lasted years while China invaded of North Vietnam lasted months. It was taught in history book in Vietnam that Chinese army fled Vietnamese territory so quickly and surprisingly haha
@@thangvictor1184 Nuking Taiwan is a terrible idea. For China specially. It will create nuclear waste in one of China's most important seas for food and trade.
I’ve been following China for the past 3 years and this is one of the greatest videos I’ve seen on here! It was so pleasant to watch and also so informative, 10/10.
I have been arguing many of the points that you have made with some armchair generals from the US who have asserted that China could just walk into Taiwan, given the discrepancy between the number of military personnel/equipment available to the two countries. I think the events of the last few weeks in Ukraine back up what you have said. Missile improvement has changed the military equation. The Russians thought that the could use their superior numbers of tanks/APCs in a blitzkrieg but Javelins/NLAWs etc.. can obviate the advantage at a fraction of the cost. Surface navies now are just collections of different sizes of missile platforms but are themselves susceptible to anti-ship missiles.
One factor that seems paramount is that if China thinks they have a chance of quickly taking Taiwan they might be tempted to do so. Thus it is critical that Taiwan maintains a defense that makes this if not unlikely at least it makes it highly uncertain. As such Taiwan may have to spend more on defense and less on social programs and such which is clearly and unfortunate turn of events but it seems a necessary one. And Chans huge investment in its military build up seems misguided in that neither Japan nor Taiwan is likely ever to pose a threat military to China and Chinas military build up is only causing them to follow suit. And China's claim that Taiwan is a breakaway province doesn't hold water either in that the government their at one time was the national government of China and is now in exile, not the same thing as a break away province. Perhaps the real impetus for China's determination to take Taiwan is that they are a free democracy and that is what they perceive is the threat, but not a military one but a political one. But hopefully they will content themselves with mere saber rattling instead of actually ever drawing the sword, for the later could ultimately be their undoing given it provokes a world war. But that huge military build up sounds ominous and seems to be going beyond mere saber rattling and as such the situation looks grave and hopefully will not spiral out of control over the next years. That is the real danger of an authoritarian state like China in that much of this lies with the power of just one man and as such China might be wise to attempt to curtail his power, which (unfortunately) does not seem to be what is happening at the present. Thus China has come a long way over the last century and this obsession with Taiwan can likely only jeopardize those gains. For the real threat is not to China but to communism which has proven to be a failure over and over again. For a while it looked like China was moving away from that and as they did so they prospered greatly. Now there seems to be a reactionary move away from that which, like many a dictatorship, focuses on some foreign enemy as one of its tenets. Thus it seems the more prudent course of action could be summed up in a little slogan, trade not invade. But as some of the other commenters have said, nations do not always act with prudently and especially it seems authoritative ones, one more reason to avoid having one. Thus the threat of war seems menacingly high unless China decides to change its present course.
The military build-up is more for spending, giving jobs to people and creating this aura of strength for the domestic audience. China cannot afford to lose more young people, especially to war. They are a fast aging demographic and they're now reaping the disastrous one-child policy of the previous decades. Not enough young people to fill the factories and take care of the elderly. When Japan hit the aging population crisis, their economy is already developed. China is still struggling with a massive level of poverty. And I doubt families with only 1 child will take kindly to being asked to sacrifice their only son, effectively ending their sacred familial bloodline, for a political cause with dubious benefits for themselves.
China needs to build a big navy for the same reasons any large economy does. They need to protect their interests abroad and also fend off potential attacks by others. Taiwan is but one consideration.
Well considering Russia seems to be stacking on the Ukraine border ready to invade at anytime, and china and Russia have some sort of pact.. I wouldn't be surprised if both invasions were coordinated.. that would make stopping either an even tougher prospect..
Unfortunately, you have a great point. The US used to plan for being heavily involved in 2 separate theaters at once, and still have enough reserve forces to put out a hot spot that sprang up in a third location. I don't believe our logistical support system is up to that level of simultaneous challenges any more. Let us hope and pray for peace to prevail. This world does not need an armed conflict between major powers, especially after all the disruptions that covid-19 has wrought upon the entire world's supply chains!
China and Russia have had long decades of mistrust and border wars thst has erupted into shooting wars with close to nuclear exchange. Mao once told Kruschev that China can lose 500 million people in a nuclear war and still have enough people to continue fighting. They may have an agreement now but it won't last. They both want to be thr top dog and the world is not big enough for both of them at the top.
I've learned more today than from this video than from any other source over the last years. It was so informative, but scarey about the end results. Who knows what will be the outcome down the road. Hopefully things will go in our best interests. I'm from the USA for the last 66 years. This world needs to get along and to be in peace. Look out for our neighbors, not take from them. When we pass, everything material stays on Earth.
Bravo sir! You've said in 20 minuets what took me a decade of conversations, research, and time on this amazing island to understand. And, your awesome visuals coupled with your clear and concise language regarding the multifaceted complexities that are Taiwan, truly make this a much watch for anyone concerned with the region. I'll leave you with an open invitation to come check out Kaohsiung for yourself!
It's funny as well as weird that Taiwan's ADIZ encroaches into China's mainland territory. Chinese planes in their own airspace have to identify themselves to Taiwan.
June, that's true! That's because Taiwan ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) monitors the PLA's Air Base closer to Taiwan, thus any movement is immediately detected.
@@Kamome163 @Kamome me again . I know from your previous videos what your IQ level is at , so I will make it short and simple to accomodate your intellect : WE CHINESE WILL GO NUCLEAR AND WILL GO WORLD WAR THREE over taiwan island. you can lie what you like and con who you like , but make sure you have the guts to come try us when our forces retake taiwan island. TALK IS CHEAP ！
If monitoring is a good reason, China could also have an ADIZ to cover the entire Taiwan. I know why they don't do it, because Taiwan is already part of China. It's redundantly unnecessary.
I really liked how you've explained all the possibilities that may have pushed China away to not take any sudden movements. However, when you highlighted the borders of every country there, except for the one that is NEPAL being right in the middle of China and India. This video gives a puzzled impression to the viewers who are not geographically aware where the country lies. I think you should create a clear boarder lines separating small countries too, so that people do not misjudged the part of the NEPAL as half China and Half India. Thank you 🙏
Nepal is famous for it's Gurkhas, warriors who are prized by India and the U.K. They also are famous for Sherpas, the porters on Mt. Everest expeditions. I'd think twice about fighting them on their home turf. Also, the air is extremely thin, hard to use "force multipliers" like artillery and any helicopters.
This channel is going to blow up. Little did I know I've heard your voice before in the Cowboy Bepop abridged clip lol going from that to this is quite the step up and the script writers are doing a great job as well. Keep up the good content guys.
@@abellyold4859 that's very true. But every country has domestic problems. Indonesia, France, Germany, Canada. Even the great USA has "city of tents", homeless people, white supremacists and shootings in kid's schools every month. Now another industrial disaster in Ohio, due to poor railroad maintenance. Very sad. But despite internal problems, Philippines managed to send rescuers in Turkey and Syria devastated by earthquakes. Filipinos are not selfish and will help Taiwan
You overlook one critical factor;
War never is logical.
- WW1 was completely irrational.
- It made no sense for Hitler to try to take all Europe and Russia.
- Japan declaring war on USA was crazy.
- It made no sense for Argentina & Britain to fight over Falklands.
Etc, etc.
But it all happened.
WW3 will be rational.
War will never be logical it just requires a crazy leader with an unprecedented power in his country.
@@essardaudinett6934 nope, when it comes to war. Playing unfair is just another strategy that could pull a victory.
Take my like, but going forward I pray that you are wrong.
The second reason is invalid,if US place a blockade,the west would unnecessarily suffer more than China and in fact China would have Russia supplying them oil natural gas etc to china
China has a rock solid relation with Russia why not mention that?
Btw IS is selling the same outdated weapons to Taiwan which they have been selling to Ukraine,and these are the Same US troops which failed in Afghanistan south veitnam etc
Nobody is going to defend Taiwan
Btw the only nation in the region that will go against China is japan and that’s only because of thier historical rivalry with China,South Korea already rejected quad and has refused to go against China,Australia’s nuclear submarine will take more than a decade of make
Can you imagine india going all the way to Taiwan to defend them 🤣🤣😂
When China takes over Taiwan,they will also takeover thier semiconductor industry so even the last point is invalid
I liked the use of map rotations to demonstrate the security perspective from a mainland china view. Great video.
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
I also liked the slowly rotating view for that same effect!
I get it, but it's giving me.a headache.
I hated the rotating map. It detracted from the story.
50 Reasons Why China always wants to Invade Taiwan.
Breaking up China is good for the world.
TO divide China (PRC) into 5 or more countries, human societies can become peaceful and happy.
More and more Chinese who live in Democratic Countries Comprehend the opinion and support it.
The Communist Party of China is the biggest trouble maker on the earth.
IF China is divided into 5 or more countries, the new governments need good laws to hold the population, which makes the human right of the Chinese go up.
I've learned more here in 18 minutes than by watching 4 years worth of Taiwanese news. Amazingly well produced content😌
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
you
Wow its Ku!!!!!
This video’s incorrect in many ways, just in the first 3 minutes! like saying Taiwan “self-declared Republic of China”, and “declared succession”, both of which are factually incorrect. Mistake #1: The Republic of China (ROC) was declared on mainland China in 1911 by the Kuomintang regime when it overthrew the Qing Dynasty. The connection of Taiwan to ROC is due to World War II when the Allies including ROC won over Japan, and made Japan give up Taiwan, which it legitimately received through the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki when Japan won a war against Qing China. In 1945, when Taiwan was “returned” or “retrocessed” to the then “China” (meaning the ROC), the legitimacy of this action in international law is still disputed, and is a basis of the supporters of “Taiwan Independence”, disputed because the ROC unilaterally declared that the previous Treaty of Shimonoseki was to be void because Qing China signed it under force. However, you know you cannot cancel a treaty or contract just because you said you were “forced”. When you lose a war you were made to give up something. It’s like losing a bet. Then you had to pay up. You don’t say, 50 years later, you have another situation when you win over the other person on a totally different issue, then declare, without checking with the other person, the thing you lost and signed over to him, and just say oh it’s mine again, right?
Number 2 mistake: “declared succession “. First of all “succession” is a wrong word. The correct vocabulary is “secession”. Taiwan NEVER declared secession from “China”, either the ROC or the PRC (People’s Republic of China, the one people now think of as *China”). The fact is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) declared the establishment of PRC on mainland China in Oct. 1949, which in itself is the secession of mainland China from the ROC, which at the time included mainland and Taiwan. So it is the CCP who seceded mainland China from ROC, so mainland China are the actual “rebel provinces”, rather than Taiwan, and the CCP are the rebels who started the revolution that broke apart what they now claim as the “holy and inseparable territory of China” which must be kept whole, when they’re the one who held the knife so to speak… 😂
@@DAwuVlog haha I didn't notice it's Ku, until someone like my message.
Thanks for putting Bibliography down in the description section!
It's good that you provide sources of the information you gave during the video.
Please keep up the great work! Your videos are really informative and give me a perspective I didn't think of before.
Interesting… let’s hope that reason holds sway. The zeitgeist in 1913 was that the modern European countries were so economically reliant on each other that a war was unthinkable…
We need to think if Xi is as insane as Hitler, also, Nazi germany had allies, real allies.
@@FidoZip1988 You're thinking about the wrong World War.
@@josebenardi1554 The analogy applies; the ChiCom regime has only one truly reliable ally, that being the NK regime. Russia, Pakistan, Iran may not answer a call from the ChiComs should war break out in E. Asia.
@@FidoZip1988 Hitler had Germany under autarchy, thus keeping them from being crippled by sanctions during wars. When China is so reliant on its export economy, it is completely impossible for them to sustain a war without a perpetual war economy
@@moonshinei I reaaally hope they can't find another way around that problem, but mfs smart.
This was a great summary of the diplomatic, economic and military factors that are continually at play when the issue of Taiwan and China are discussed.
Thank you, Ned!
China will just put on a display of milltary exercise and go back to the mainland of China.This is a time of weak leadership in China.Nancy has proved that.But we must get ready for next leader of China.He maybe a very strong leader.
Really interesting take on the Situation.
Keep on going! Time will Reward you
Quite superb. I am a Retired USAF Colonel (O-6) and this is the most cogent and thorough briefing on this subject I have seen on social media. It should be required viewing. Kudos to you.
Thank you so much, John! I really do appreciate it.
@@Kamome163hy did you censor me?
Afraid of free speech from real intellectuals (double PhD program)?
Or do you prefer CCP repression to the marketplace of ideas. Read Mill’s “On Liberty”.
You've got 2 moms
Yea, this is one of the better explanations for sure
Excellent video! Most viewers of mainstream media lack the historical perspective which is very important.
Thank you so much, JRT!
Mainstream media = pre planned propaganda PPP
One of the best videos on this matter! The graphics & narration were top notch! Great Job & Thank you!
Thank you so much Felix!
@@Kamome163 bro hello I am a very big fan of yours can you tell me how did you grow your channel within 6 videos that is amazing man. I have a you tube channel but for last 1 year since I have started i do not have any a lot of views
If you can tell me how you start getting views so early in the start if your channel that would be a great help. Do you use Google ads also
Well made video! After living in Taiwan for 11 years and observing and researching the situation, I think this video is quite accurate and well thought out!
China is angry. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
Thank you so much Pauli!
@@Kamome163 while very accurate, I have to disagree with your assessment. Your assessment is based on mostly on economic reasons. There is nothing to say China will not endure it in order to regain taiwan. I'm surprised you didn't include the porcupine strategy that Taiwan may adopt. If taiwan goes down, the entire east coast of China will be destroyed as well. That seems more effective at giving China a second thought.
@@duyle-ej6ty using the most minimum resource to gain maximum outcome ... economically invasion instead of military
@@eliteparkingmanagement9795 hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Look at ukraine.
I am a Chinese citizen now working in US, I like this video. Subscriber+1.
Wow, history as I've known suddenly makes sense after 40 yrs! I'm a Filipino-Chinese presently in Taiwan. I've always heard about the strategic value of the Far East including Taiwan and the Philippines, particularly in the maritime interests of eastern and the western powers, but I never really understood it all until this video. This was very well put together and narrated, with great visuals that helped in understanding what was said. For instance, geography and topography in terms of island positions, proximity and depth of intervening water bodies were very clear; and visual perspectives shifted based on the country being referenced e.g. China (N-->S), Taiwan, US (E-->W). I really appreciate this!
You should really get out of taiwan my guy, like as soon as possible
@@odinto1 Maritime is about to be over when US is driven out of the main continent. With more advanced land transportation being developed, it will benefit the entire continent especially the vast area in the middle Asia. China, Russia, Iran, Arab world and Europe will be the bedrocks for the renaissance of the main continent.
And, you just now realized this. Better get educated.
@@yijiaoqiu1243fever dream. China already made a huge mistake forcing Japan out of their nonaggression stance. The Japanese will make an inscrutable enemy
@@jonasbarbury4013 Do you have any knowledge of history between China and Japan? If Japan dares to harm China once again, what do you think will happen? You guys have no basic understanding of countries that you "don't like". Russia has been repeated invaded by the west since Rome time. You still believe that the pressure from the west will bend the Russian? Similarly, if west think Japan can be a good enemy of China because of its industry, please, think again.
+1 subscriber, this is the kind of quality that is just hard to turn down. I look forward to catching up to more of these videos. Keep making them as you make them, this is great.
Thank you so much!🙇♂️
8:33 While the whole video is mostly neutral, why when China containment by the US is said like a universal naturality while China's fear of "US collusion" is marked with open and close apostrophes in the subtitles?
Especially when you look at the map again and again, why does this has something to do with the US? Where the FK is US? Why are people okay with the US military expansion, which stretched all the way across the pacific ocean, but not okay with China expending its defence line in front of China's gates?
The editing is brilliant, as always, from Kamome :)
🥹 Thank you so much, Cole!
I think it ultimately comes down to the state of the economy. As long as China’s economy remains stable or growing, the risks of war far exceed its benefits
I think it’s the opposite. China’s economy will fall apart when the demographic crisis hits. When this happens, it will be impossible for China to support a war. They can’t even heat their homes without Australian coal. They can’t afford to go to war when their economy is on the way down.
Bullshit lmao
@@Zei33 Agreed. Unless the top brass of the CCP are a bunch of lunatics, they wont support any kind of military campaign against Taiwan. Even US got sick of dumping their money in the Mideast eventually, and they were fighting guerilla fighters.
ITT: Assuming the CCP aren't lunatics, not knowing that internal struggles promote war as a way to vent discontent by uniting the people against a common external enemy, and not knowing that China's economy will collapse, sinking the global economy.
China and ccp developing economy to supply war by any methods is obviously
I’ve only recently discovered this channel and it has rapidly become my favorite on UA-cam. The content, including the maps and clear and concise verbiage are outstanding. I plan to go through all the videos available and, in most cases, multiple times (I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed). I can’t express adequately, in words alone, how much I appreciate what you’re doing.
agree, i think ww3 wil happen in my life
No, it is not outstanding. It is just middling. It is replete with mistakes and starts with them right on. So many in fact that I would not want to list them here. Possibly you are awed because you are comparing what you heard to what you know, which is a bit of something against nothing. From that perspective it would look outstanding yes, however not otherwise. Pro Chinese Party sympathisers would love how this analysis starts. Unfortunately for them, the history is different than portrayed by this video. Which is why, such videos are never a serious substitute for a serious education.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 please, name us some examples
@@emanuelgaldes3515 Agreed. It would take several videos to set this video straight. Very broadly speaking, it's essentially correct but ignores certain facts which drastically change the conclusion.
Wow, just saw your comment, and thank you so much Stephen! I hope you’re still watching the videos on the channel and if you do, if you have any feedback!
Another great video! I loved the parts of the video when you’d mention the US, pan out the map view and show little lines going out from the US to various countries and then outlining those countries. Very cool and pleasing aesthetic!
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
The visual design of this video was awesome
@Gregory Jones Iraq in 1991 was one of the largest armies in the world and the coalition (with the US being the forefront) stomped them in 2 weeks.
@Gregory Jones North Korea was the aggressor and it was stopped by UN forces, not just “Yankees” and thanks to their united efforts, South Korea still exists and North Korean efforts to rule all of Korea were ended
what the fuck is your Profile picture？！
Nice Report with stunning Graphics. Thank you very much!!
Having recently travelled around all of Taiwan, I can’t see how China could successful invade such a heavily populated west coast without it killing millions of people, many who have relatives in China. It would also have to be extremely repressive so as to reduce it being subject to urban guerrilla warfare on a constant basis.
Not to mention the international ramifications as mentioned. No, it will try to corrode from within and play the long game and hope for international resistance to waiver.
Yes. China is very patient and will play the long game. It is not in China’s interests to invade Taiwan at this stage. By delaying an attack it increases its military strength and perhaps as you say hopes international resistance will waiver. Already the west has fallen into the trap of believing its own propaganda that all the countries in the area will pile in against China believing that China is hated by everyone. The west doesn’t understand the Asian mind. The disputes over the islands for instance have been going on for decades. Singapore, Sth Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Phillipines have China as their main trading partner that doesn’t sound like hatred. Sth Korea and Singapore have already said they wont go to war against China. If Sth Korea were to go against China and Nth Korea came in with China, sth Korea runs the risk of being wiped out by its northern nuclear armed neighbour and how long would it take to disable Singapore?
那就开sha戒好了
That’s the problem, communist countries have no problem killing innocent people when it comes to war, if US killed a bunch of innocent people during a war with China then alot of people in the US and all over the world would be angry, but if China did the same they would most likely they won’t get the same backlash, that is why going to war with even NK is risky because Kim will easily kill innocent lives by bombing cities like Seoul
@@MS-ql8ek Did China kill more people or USA in the past 50 years? Hahaha
@@brianngf2360 maybe yes and no because China doesn't report real numbers, I went to college with alot of students from china and even they didn't even know about the great leap forward or the massacre so yea I can't give you a legitimate answer
The video starts out with an error re Formosa (Taiwan). It had been a Japanese colony, by treaty, since the end of the first Sino-Japanese war in 1895. It remained under Japanese control throughout WWII. The US chose to bypass Formosa rather than trying to invade it. Your statement that it fought alongside the allies against Japan during the war are incorrect. Over 200,000 Chinese and aboriginals joined the Japanese military.
those Chinese were traitors, and deserved to be shot. China will reclaim Taiwan in due time. It's an inevitability. Mostly likely via economic means, if not that military invasion. Taiwan is not of core strategic interest to the states. It is however a national interest for 1.4 billion Chinese. Even those who live over seas outside of china. There is no stopping china on this. When faced with existential threats, populations will suffer greatly to endure an outcome of eventual victory. Taiwan is one of those for the Chinese. Hence china has demonstrated Enormous patience when it came to reunification. China waited 100 years for the Hong Kong treaty to expire before taking over. it "honored" colonial unfair treaties that were signed before the CCP even was a thing. Hong Kong was ceded for 150 years. Taiwan has only been 70 years. so there is plenty of time.
I second what you say. Some young taiwanese were conscripted into the Japanese military during the war. Because of this , some couldn't return to their own country after the war because they had fought for the then enemy. A very complicated situation where families were torn apart simply because the men did their duty.
Keep up the quality man, this is the sort of quality that not many can make and I hope to see you reach the subcount level of CaspianReport eventually!
CaspianReport is ok but lacks in quality and scratches the surface of issues like the latest on Kosovo/Albania unification. James Ker-Lindsay’s channel he did the same video months ago and actually dug into the issue quicker and deeper from multiple angles and went into the constitution of Kosovo etc. Kamome does a way better job than CaspianReport and actually cites his reference material which is great for looking up on our own for us to dig further if we want.
@@dainomite :)
@@dainomite Compare 1930s Nazi Germany Vs 2020s Communist China IN YOUR NEXT VIDEO Project before it's too late
@素食吉祥净心净土 talk is cheap
台湾大部分人是南岛人血统。但是，台湾岛是属于中国的。太平洋没有加盖，喜欢美国的，可以游泳去。非我族类其心必异。
KUDOS KAMONE!!! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!!
Thank you so much🥺!
Superb animations. Bravo from Paris France!!!
@Hello Jean how are you doing?
A few numbers:
At its narrowest point, the English Channel is 21 miles wide. It can be crossed by a strong swimmer. The Strait of Taiwan is about 100 miles wide. Currents and tides make navigation difficult.
On D-Day, the Allied fleet consisted of 6,939 vessels. The Chinese navy currently amounts to 355 vessels, most of them coast guard cutters and patrol boats.
The German defenders in Normandy numbered some 40,000, many poorly trained and motivated foreigners. The Taiwanese army includes 190,000 professionals and 160,000 reservists.
On D-Day, the Allies enjoyed total air and naval superiority. Also, their enemies were distracted by a much larger conflict with distant Russia. China cannot count on any such advantages.
The Germans may only have 40,000 at Normandy but they had a million men in France. The German made their own tanks, planes.... This is an example of you see what you want to believe.
Germans were defending the mainland from an island; while Taiwan defending an island from the mainland.
It's all HEAD games with China! They are all delusional!
@@DMSProduktions You mean the Chinese living in Taiwan! Starting with the "Taiwan President"
The Germans were also much more distracted and obsessed with General George S. Patton, the fake army built around him, and the bluffed landing at Calais.
Kudos for making the best video made by westerner I've seen on this topic! No political bs, no propaganda, not opinionated, just facts and logical\objective analysis.
Being a westerner or not doesn’t matter. When you properly educate yourself on an issue your background doesn’t matter
All of this can be found on wikipedia. Or is it propaganda too
Exactly! I’ve seen too many biased and twisted videos :(
@@Osmanthus839 How to know which is biased and which isn't? This was one based view for sure, I have no backdoor to usa-china relations so how to really know. But people usually search web just to support their confirmation & bandwagon effect biases or algos do it for them without their knowledge. I could think of several reasons why USA *could* sacrifice Taiwan in larger game just to hold on of their power a bit longer. But sure, there are plenty of reasons as of now why china shouldn't do it as of now.
As good as it gets. However theres at least one major yet fundamental distortion on how the balance of peace gone south. If u look into the background at full scale, the narrative would rapidly turn around
Thanks!
Thank you so much!🥹
When you are strong, appear weak.
When you are weak, appear strong.
When your GDP is in the tank, make war films. Thanks for the videos!
Interesting to see the parallels between this cold war and the last one. Firm commitment on one side is seen as borderline aggression on the other.
Great comment!
That's slap-bang, what international relations are about. There are multiple angles from where to look at a topic. What for one part is an advantage for someone else is a weakness. IMO we are more used to hearing or seeing only one side of the story.
Great vidioe and very good points, im looking forward for more content like this in the future👍
I think Xi, after monitoring the developments in Ukraine, has wisely decided taking Taiwan by force is just not worth it. Taiwan also has a strong military with advanced American weapons and they are well defended by numerous allies like India and Japan. Invading an island would also be much more challenging than a land invasion like Russia and Ukraine.
I actually think the complete opposite is true. After events in Ukraine, PRC would have to believe the chances of a direct US intervention is minimal, as long as China has enough strategic weapons to offer a credible threat of escalation. Without that direct intervention, the success of a military operation is all but guaranteed. Because while the attack itself would be difficult and complicated, for the same reasons, military supply aides from US would also be difficult. There is no cost too great for the recovery of Taiwan in PRC’s thinking, which makes the “not worth it” argument invalid. As far as other “allies”, they would only follow what US does. Therefore, I would say PRC is more confident than ever of a successful military operation. The only thing holding it back is how long the preparation takes, which involves building up reserve of resources, pivot the economy toward internal consumption, develop technology to withstand the embargoes, and build relationships with resource exporting countries to ensure adequate supply in face of a US led embargo. Once China is confident of having prepared for what’s likely to face, the timetable for the military solution will be set.
Lol Russia don't have enough population so they are caution.
In case of china
They will have more people than you will ever have bullets. How much can you kill?
Look at the Korean wars.
How Chinese with rifle chased away all United Nations and USA with high-Tech weaponry.
You don't have idea how communism mentality works.
India isn’t defending Taiwan militarily. Despite its enormous defense budget, it is in no state to initiate military action so far from home.
Hmm but doesn't china fear if eu and us would go full trade stop. Destroying its own economy. As an example how Russia is doing now
U r an Indian? India has no ability of protect itself. How India ready to protect Taiwan?
great video! just subbed and looking forward to more
Wow! That means a lot, Thank you so much RedTeam!! Really appreciate that! BTW I really enjoy your videos on GoT! 🙌
@@Kamome163 China is a land grab opportunist. Thus, she is constantly sensing and detecting any weakness in her opponents to make her move. Land grab in South China Sea would never happen if Barack Obama showed signs of strength in foreign policy. Similarly, Crimea could not fall to Putin's hands if Barack Obama were Ronald Reagan. Oh by the way, Australia could be like Tibet next when the opportunity presents itself. Therefore, the Aussies should never let their guard down.
@@lahy1060 Look at the map, see where the harbours are, and think again about Crimea.
@@vsiegel Volker, look at China's aging group of military-age men, look at the map, and think again about Chinese ambitions. La Hy is absolutely correct.
@@patriciawilliams1232 I think I do not understand the Chinese situation. I see that it was ambiguous, my point was only about Putin and his potential relation to Reagan. I did not mean to imply something about China, sorry.
An additional consideration of an invasion is the management of the aftermath irrespective of whether the invasion is successful.
With seaports, airports, land logistics, power stations, communications and governing sectors mostly devastated, neither China nor Taiwan would have much left to provide any benefits. Rebuilding would take years and costs would rack up in hundreds of billions of dollars.
Take the semiconductor industry you mentioned, any disruption in power supply would wreak havoc on the production lines and subsequent order fulfilment for all downstream products. The flow on effect would be unimaginable for every country in the world.
When the allies attacked both Sicily and Normandy in WW2, they did so after ensuring that their aerial and naval preponderance was massive. They dominated in the sky with thousands of planes and over the seas with thousands of ships. Both Germany's and Italy's efforts in those armaments had been practically reduced to nothing. Seaborne invasions could then take place. This is a chess game in which China suffers from many disadvantages especially if Taiwan were to take its own self-defence seriously enough to train its population to fight in its own island state's defence. China cannot start to reduce any single armament that Taiwan possesses unless it engages in open warfare, whether it calls it by some absurd name as Putin has done or another or nothing at all. The moment that that happens, China will find itself assaulted by Japan, the USA, Australia, probably the rest of NATO and possibly India. So China has to concentrate all its Taiwan invasion force on a narrow front, which concentration will give itself away right on for China's enemies have their eyes on her from space, so that a military buildup would be spied, same as Putin's was and would give defence ample time. But China would have to look out and defend other areas of its shoreline. Moreover, a massive amount of its economy and its people are easily reachable by her enemies' airpower and China itself could be subject to a seaborne invasion given the massive force projection of aircraft carriers and their powerful air wings. Right on, China will lose trading with all its enemies and its economy will stutter both in reduced income from sales as well as in raw materials required for production, from which it will be starved. China would be infiltrated and disaffected nationalities and creeds within her would be urged to rebel and secede fromt the majority Han population. The invasion force itself would easily need 5 hours to cross during which time it would be pummelled by surface ships, submarines and airforces with the Taiwanese reinforced by others ready to give any remaining landing forces the firing welcome of their life. China needs to weigh this extremely risky operation against the very present possibilities that it might lose, might lose big and all its government might find itself attacked internally, because the myth of its unbeatability would have vanished. If I were China I would continue to grow and live in peace, prospering with each passing year. Rest assured that America would resist China over Taiwan. The best reasoning for saying that is that America would much better prefer to wage war on China from Taiwan and Japan, having whole populations and their territories and materials and military power behind her back than let China win and consolidate leaving America open to even more attacks from China and having to defend from her Hawaiian shoreline. Russia will not move to help China militarily as the European side of NATO will put Russia in checkmate, North Korea neither as South Korea will chew it up and spit it out. Pakistan neither, as India will use the aggravation as an excuse to invade either Pakistan or China or both. I see China as in a very weak military situation, which is reflective of its weak international political position. America/Europe/Taiwan/South Korea/India are very populous, very rich and very technologically advanced nations, not to mention The Philippines as a base (population 110,000,000) and Australia is technologically on a parity with the USA/Europe and though having a small population, has a territory that is very minerally rich and bigger than the size of India. China is already noticing that with just some military hardware aid to Ukraine, Russia has lost around 50,000 troops and 100,000 wounded fighting an average army that it attacked from across the border without having had to cross any sea. Imagine what will happen to China when it is not only hit by western military hardware but the West starts fighting there with its own soldiers/sailors and pilots. Chinese had for many years a single child policy. There will be millions of ageing Chinese families with their single boy lost. And it will not finish there, for wars have their own devil driving them. China will be invaded and be defeated same as Hitler was and same as Japan was defeated. There will be a military presence and China will be politically re-educated into a democracy, as there is a chance that Russia will if Putin would be stupid enough to touch Nato territory.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 what a load of speculative rubbish. Are you a military expert, or just some one who thinks he knows it all? It appears your expert knowledge wasn’t used in Afghanistan. It also doesn’t take into account that China might not act as you predict. For one thing you can bet the Chinese are quite capable of sinking American aircraft carriers. ( the Pentagon says they are sitting ducks) you say China suffers from many disadvantage but don’t see any disadvantages to the Americans. The Pentagon has warned that in the event of a war with China America would lose badly. It appears your analysis is based more on typical American hubris than logical outcome. Perhaps you play a lot of military computer games. If you were to take past history America has never fared well against a determined enemy even though better equipped. It only successes have been against smaller poorer countries like Panama, Grenada, Libya, Serbia, countries that couldn’t fight back. If a one billion dollar carrier goes to the bottom of the Sth China sea we will see what effect it has on the moral of the bravest soldiers in the world.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 If China attacks Taiwan, no one will come to fight for Taiwan!! America and NATO? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! You mean like America and NATO fighting the Russians over Ukraine? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!
@@emanuelgaldes3515 你为什么会认为美国会真的参与战斗？
Damn, how did it became invasion? It is another domestic war only.
Facts without rhetoric. Subbed.
Applauses, this gotta be one of the most balanced, in-depth videos about the intricate China-Taiwan situations. Bravo
Thank you so much Andreas!
Sound analysis. Agree too with the comments below about the use of graphics to show perspectives from differing national viewpoints; the world often looks different when sitting 'in the other person's chair'. Really enjoyed your presentation and thought it a very useful contribution to current security debate.
I am from Taiwan. This video is really good. It takes a deep understanding of Taiwan to make it. Thank you for sharing Taiwan
如果放任台灣獨立，台獨勢力崛起，台灣必定成為被美國控制的國家，美軍必定會進駐台灣，並申稱要讓台灣加入北約，在台灣沿海部署北約軍事基地，以及長程飛彈，而台灣就 100% 走上烏克蘭之路，這是美國對抗敵人慣用的手段。別忘了當初「蘇聯」要在古巴部署飛彈，美國就威脅要出兵，還聲稱會直接動用核武，把古巴給打下來，史稱「古巴飛彈危機」，人類最接近「核子世界末日」的一天。後來是美國透過外交手段，蘇聯最終放棄部屬飛彈，危機才解除。你可以很清楚的看到，美國自己都忍受不了的事情，卻一直對自己的敵人，做相同的事。
@@KyouKo-x7g difference is, the majority of Taiwan wants to stay independent from China. Of course the US will take advantage of that seeing that it depends on Taiwan for trade. Doesn’t mean that it’s nefarious. With Cuba the political and societal climate was different than that of Taiwan and it’s history. If Taiwan wants help then the US is going to oblige. Perhaps the Chinese government should stop trying to take what doesn’t want to be took. If they want independence and their way of life than let them have it. Either way if this war breaks out all sides will carry tremendous losses and the world economy and the people of this earth will suffer.
@@KyouKo-x7g 但總比被中共控制好
There's another reason: any military invasion/occupation will be way too expensive. Modern weaponry is now so complicated that the procurement of sufficient quantities to fight a protracted war will bankrupt even the wealthiest of nations.
Take the fighter plane. In WWII, a P-38 Lightning cost the modern-day equivalent of $3M, and that's on the high end; the famed P-51 Mustang costs less than $700k. Modern-day jets easily go over $60M, 5th and even 4.5 gens push $100M a piece, and they're not firing .50 cal bullets either; a single sidewinder can cost as much as half a million dollars, AMRAAMs are over $1M a pop.
The economic compromises needed to support a modern-day war machine against an equally matched adversary (ie. Anything more than some insurgents with AKs) will be financially crippling for all parties involved. Everything is a dreadnought nowadays. Much cheaper to just keep rattling sabers and filing diplomatic complaints.
Hmmmmm. They did say before 1914 that a major war between Europeans nations was impossible, because it would be too expensive and economically disruptive. Well, Hom. Sap. found a way!
@@PsilocybinCocktail China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
@@PsilocybinCocktail True. Thanks in no small part to Rapallo Treaty and MEFO Fraud.
These numbers are only applicable during peace times as they use the military industry as a means to grow the US economy. It's not the only one but it's a major contributing factor.
On wartime, printing machine will truly go crazy and the numbers won't matter anymore as winner will take all.
You are right ... Too expensive to have war.....plus it won't guarantee you success as well... Just look at what is happening to USA in Afghanistan..... Now adays people having modern war technology just to warn each other to avoid war.....
Too logical. People who start wars do so for emotional, irrational reasons.
Xi was sobbing at the podium about Taiwan recently. He did not sound like a rational person.
People with power will never be happy with the power they have they always want more. If they take Taiwan they will control also the semi-conductor industry and if they do the world is fucked.
Great video. Well said. I’m a Chinese mainlander and I agree most of the points your brought up. I guess the key is - yes, China wants to prioritize economic growth at current stage and therefore would not disrupt the status quo with Taiwan (Republic of China). However, when the growth slows down, Chinese government would prioritize things like income equality, access to education and healthcare and foreign affairs like Taiwan-related issues. Actually, they already begin.
already begin because China's economy has slowed back to Mao times. CCP knows not to invade taiwan because it would mean a regime change, as the 1.2 billion PRC residents know the truth they're being told by the CCP censorship to ignore. THis isn't Ukraine. Mike Drop.
China is an aging country and because of political concerns, they can’t lower the retirement age, is war really the best option for china? I don’t think so, status quo relations are already benficial to both Taiwan and china
Then why did these chinese warships surround Taiwan the other day
@@odinto1 Chinese warships has been surrounding Taiwan ever since early 2000.
@@BeaverChainsaw I'm sick of wars either. I prefer to maintain status quo. But I'm nobody...
The Art of War , Attack when you're enemies feel safe , and No longer fear you
Philippines stronk. Philippines can defeat China.
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
Art of war: fight only when necessary. Winning battles without ever receiving casualties is your goal.
taiwan shouldn't be overly reliant on the US, my country learned it the hard way with scarborough, they'll tell you they're your "ally" but will only act on it if it will prove beneficial to them.
Taiwan's only bargaining chip is TSMC... and is likely the main reason the US will intervene.
Well, if our country (Philippines) wants to be treated with respect and a partner of the United States, then we should invest in our security, our political field is often embattled with different issues yet neglect our national security. We overuse the "ally" part with the United States to the point that we are seen by the international community as a useless ally and don't contribute to the cause. The United States always delivers being a partner and an ally, how about us?
A correct, honest and valid point. The meaning of "ally" is mutual. It is understandable and acceptable that the Philippines does not have the physical power (army, navy and air force) to stand shoulder to shoulder with the US, however they should have the moral commitment to do so. @@glennskaalaman
You can not slap your "ally" in the face (Subic and Clark, insult him ("Obama is the son of a whore") and wipe your dirty slippers on his floor ($37 million USD in direct aid 2000 US Marines with 20 aircraft on the ground within 2 days, an entire US Navy aircraft carrier strike, group including more than 20 ships, a hospital ship, 13,000 personnel, 12 V-22 Ospreys, 5 KC-130s, 2 C-17s, and numerous helicopters arrived off Tacloban within 3 days) without so much as an official "Thank You, America" or blame the US for your inability and unwillingness to stand up to defend your own territory. The US isn't perfect, but neither is the Philippines. I could go on, but I think you get the point.
@@tabuilder the mentality of the majority of Filipinos is we should always ask Uncle Sam for help when we are in need and blame the US for not helping us in certain situations, what kind of an ally we are if we thank Uncle Sam for helping us and throw tantrums when they didn't. This mentality reflects the majority of the Filipinos and the lack of accountability within ourselves is the reason why the Filipino society is slowly destroying itself.
I have been in many arguments about Taiwan and until now I didnt realise how wrong I was. Thank you for uploading this.
Wow, thank you so much for such a open comment! :)
I learned a little history and logistics .
Good video , I subscribed !
Very informative and helps me better understand the stalemate (or status quo) between China and Taiwan.
There is no stalemate....there are 2 million Taiwanese, some entire three generation families living in mainland China. Your choice of word is ludicrous.
I really don't think Xi gives a damn about what the international community would think if he were to invade Taiwan. He has other reasons not to invade but condemnation is not one of them.
I agree, but he does care about his competitors in the CCP, and he is NOT liked amongst a huge part of the Chinese population neither.
@@AC-he8ln Yeah, great point. It wouldn't surprise me if he was like Stalin, Kim or Hitler, paranoid of their upper staff or anyone that they deemed a potential threat.
he would be condemned by the Chinese if he doesn't take measures to take Taiwan lol
Great video, and I agree with your analysis. The assumption made is: people act rationally. I hope people do.
Thank you LB! Let's hope!
@@Kamome163 me again .
I know from your previous videos what your IQ level is at , so I will make it short and simple to accomodate your intellect :
WE CHINESE WILL GO NUCLEAR AND WILL GO WORLD WAR THREE over taiwan island. you can lie what you like and con who you like , but make sure you have the guts to come try us when our forces retake taiwan island. TALK IS CHEAP ！
@@tantan2132 Beijing have been talking loudly all this time, your point?? IT'S ALL HOT AIR!! 說的比唱的好聽！！
@@tantan2132 - Hello, Wolf Warrior, I'll see your paltry 350 warheads with my countries 5,550 warheads. You still wanna brag about "going nuclear" over Taiwan? Nukes are only good as a deterrent for war dingus, if you you use them offensively, the rest of the world WILL gang up on you and glass your whole country, hell, I bet the US could even get Russia to lob a few your way. Read a book on international relations or something before you start spewing your BS nationalistic rhetoric on the internet.
@@tantan2132 China have stated that they will never use nuclear weapons unless nuked first. So either you are wrong or your government lies.
Awesome analysis n commentary of the Taiwan - China global situation n the related countries impacted by them. Kudos. New subscriber because of this vid. Anticipating ur next one. Peace
I tend to watch UA-cam in order to unwind and turn off the brain mostly.. This is quality content, well presented, thanks for the thought provoking take on the current situation.
Best coverage of the ROC/PRC relational and security issues I've seen anywhere. Nicely done. 👍
One other factor not mentioned is internal dissent in CCP. While Zi certainly appears all powerful and quickly suppresses any dissent in the party, there are plenty of high ranking government and military officials who do not like Zi or his aggressive policies. They are silent for now, but a serious misstep by Zi (such as invade Taiwan) he might face a serious CCP backlash. Furthermore, The disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine must have all the cadres in CCP thinking twice.
Oh my I hope you are right.
93% Chinese is supportive to CCP as Western poll shows, but 99% Chinese is supporting unification war,
but you are right CCP would think twice after Russia's war on Ukraine,
like once CCP wages real war then CCP would attack harder, CCP won't wait for US to help.
YOU SHOULD HEAR REAL VOICE ON WEIBO.
Topdown countries, only provide paper tiger armies ,have to spy and steal and a lot of noise.
Nothing wrong with the chinese population, more with their leaders.
Great content keep em coming.
While I feel this is still a sound argument, I feel it's a bit old fashioned. Currently when discussing invasions everyone always resorts to old world logic of man on man combat or arms vs arms combat first. Nothing about modern society suggests that an immediate boots on the ground approach would be the way to go about things. Boots on the ground would only be needed to hold the land, which would be far easier when an implemented invasion could be done with little technological resistance. Another issue is assuming casualties matter, which.. they don't in the grand scheme of things in this situation. Take an emp first strike as an example (which is far more crude than what I feel would actually be implemented.) This already knocks out most defensive capabilities that could be mustered against them. Most of the resistance would be then left up to soldiers fighting without tech, against soldiers with tech, or for civilians to attempt revolt. Yes, the argument can be made that "well China won't do this because of threat of retaliation by other nations".. which.. doesn't really check out when considered rationally. The same logic used for that argument can be used for why they wouldn't face retaliation, nations simply won't physically engage in retaliatory actions for fear of triggering an all out world war. This would give China plenty of stretching room to do as it pleases until someone actually threatens action (and plans to actually do something instead of posture or impose sanctions.) By this time however there are already countries that would be standing by them, making this whole thing not so cut and dry "well they'll receive retaliation", thus unlikely. Any country planning on stopping them would either need to be prepared to actually engage in nuclear warfare (unlikely), or immediately and swiftly respond in kind (also unlikely.) And all of this is assuming they go about this in a "brute force" manner and just openly emp followed by attacking, instead of covertly shutting the grid down and destabilizing their social systems before hand, which nations like China have already proven is easily done.
Simply put the "wont" claim while backed up with valid arguments, is held together with lack of imagination, and the belief that people (nations even) aren't willing to suffer/risk injury in order to be great. History has shown this time and time again, and yet hopeful optimists keep dreaming that everyone will just play nice simply because.
The argument basically comes down to assuming Xi is a sane man. I do not think we are dealing with someone sane.
@@NexusProd1gy Another good point, and as it seems he has a bit of a god complex.. I think it's safe to say he wouldn't approach such a situation with rationality and a clear head.
The mainland could do an emp strike. If they want to pillage the island for tech, among other things, then they would have fried what they wanted. Especially the TSMC company.... Small scale neutron blasts in some non-critical cities would not be surprising though.
What?
@@seanbrazell6147 Seeing as this isn't written in Phoenician I'm not sure what's hard to understand.
Thank you for a brilliantly explained background !!
Let us hope your optimistic predictions on future development will be confirmed - no PCR invasion of Taiwan.
Regards from Jens, Oslo
China has India in their flang, if china invade, India will move in to kick their ass
That would be PRC (Peoples Republic of China.)
just that the island reunifies with the mainland without any invasion. that is a better scenario
@@thangvictor1184 so taiwan not goiing to fight, i going to take time, sure India wil kick china ass
So the Tiawan Straits are 100 miles wide with strong currents and tides.
I have heard it said that there is a time window , in the fall, where sea conditions are suitable for a landing craft operation.
What is this time window? Is it the month of November?
Thanks for all you do.
This video is now outdated. Need to revise on several fronts like PRC’s breakthrough in Chip technology as such it is no longer at Taiwan’s dictation like supply & pricing.
China’s fast progress in military might has changed the war zone landscape completely.
The global shutdown of Russia came as a shock to Russia and I'm sure it blew China's mind as well. China's very unstable economy cannot risk the west decreasing Chinese imports. There are many countries hoping China takes action. Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Mexico would benefit hugely from a conflict. China knows this and can't afford to lose customers that will not come back once gone.
The west cannot afford to decrease Chinese imports. If the Chinese economy collapses, so does the west. That’s why the west keeps on talking about decoupling. Because they can’t make a move on china that won’t totally destroy the west. They entirely depend on china.
And right now they’re even asking china to bail them out of another recession
China is different from Russia. China doesn't care about the economy as much as you say. The Chinese believe that there will be better development after the Taiwan issue is resolved.
China can't grow without Taiwan. Xi wants to be more than the world's factory.
You should really check how big the economy of China is. ASEAN country combined is only $10 billion but China alone is 100 billion trade... where your assumption come from China economy is going down. Anti China economists have been said for the past 10 years to wish China goes down to flames but China has full industrial power as well self efficient as the west has been smear and sanction China tech for a long time... another thing.. go to China for once to find out how people lives and look at China economy using your own eyes rather just listen to media. Trust me they lie. China is no longer 1970 poor country...
About Japan's laws and Abe administration: few years ago, Japan Palarment passed a a law that Japan can engage in Military operations overseas IF Threat be proven a threat to Japan itself
I am sure the islands situation fits this
@arai nn I doubt asia would worry about Japan with a rising Chins
@@superninja252 most of them would, Japanese Imperialism is still a problem for all of her historical victims.
@@jedaye47 WWIi was 70 years ago also again Japan would do thst only In case China attacked Taiwan what would make Self-defence instead of imperialist attack
@@chasseausanglier3390 oh hi CCP shill, do your leader knows you are using a blocked platform?
@@jedaye47 if mainland and TW goes to war then Japan will go to war too for self defense, so japan thinks TW is part of Japan?
Your content is very well made and thougth through. This channel deserves a lot more subscriptions!
A very well laid out analysis of the situation indeed.
Although I'm aware of the situation with China, Taiwan, and Japan. This video gives a more realistic, and optimistic understanding of this situation. Some how I knew that an all out war between China, and USA was not likely.
Well if it did happened.The earth reset
Not direct confrontation but through US proxies like Japan n , Australia etc. Like they are using Ukraine against Russia
@@ferdnandowang2688 why do you assume nukes you think there are gonna commit sucide over taiwan?
Having lived an international life. I think we all bask and cheers each other on the glory of global friendship in most places. It's really just a few outliers who still think hurting your own people for their own good is on the right side of things.
We all know assholes trying to sell worthless and used-up ideals. It's funny geopolitically how they are all primarily from Russia and mainland China these days. At least the USA can hate itself, make fun of itself, and still be patriotic because we can.
The us isn't going to have a war with China. Japan is our thorn in our side .
You covered many great reasons. This was a very informative video. Having lived in Taiwan for over 10 years I can truly say there are many more reasons why this theory is a strong one. The fear mongering must stop.
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
@@twhis9843 Can you tell me why you consider this fear-mongering?
1. Xi Jinping says that reunification must occur within this generation.
2. China has Taiwan parliament copy as a military training prop.
3. China is claiming a huge area of water against international rules.
4. Jet fighter incursion look as much like training as they do messaging.
5. China-India standoff occurred in 2017 & again for the last 20 or so months. In effect, China appears to be attempting to expand in all directions even if "gently".
The ostrich defense isn't going to work with China having the economy it does.
If there was only a way to bet you money
You'll know in 3-4 months.
@@josephroach711 damn right!!! After the Olympics are over then.....
In 1940 after Hitler defeated France, he was considering invading England. The English Channel is only 30 kilometers wide and he wouldn't risk it because he couldn't get control of the air. The Taiwan Straights are 170 kilometers wide making an invasion undertaking very problematic !
Robert, thanks for the great addition!
@@Kamome163 I'm just reciting history, surely they're aware of this in Beijing.
@@Kamome163 @Kamome me again .
I know from your previous videos what your IQ level is at , so I will make it short and simple to accomodate your intellect :
WE CHINESE WILL GO NUCLEAR AND WILL GO WORLD WAR THREE over taiwan island. you can lie what you like and con who you like , but make sure you have the guts to come try us when our forces retake taiwan island. TALK IS CHEAP ！
Problem 1, germany dont have the air superiority,
Problem 2, germany dont have the navy
Problem 3, germany dont have the precision missile technology that could target the queen's bathroom
Problem 4, germany isnt a place where the entire capitalist world invested in and where their money is
Problem 5, germany elite troop was vanquish by the communist.
so the nazi germany wasnt even come close to what is happening now
@@yzy8638 you can't even get your facts right. German troops were not vanquished by the Russians, they were not at war yet !
Really good graphics and editing
Nice analysis but with due respect, I found the "5 reasons" unconvincing. The problem is that it is based on typical western/democratic world resoning and placing too much emphasis on assuming rational thinking. That's not how undemocratic and dictatorial regimes operate. Just think of Chamberlain's appeasement policy before WW II, second guessing Hitler and thinking that it is not in his interest to start a war after he's gotten most of what he wanted (redrawing European borders). That's not how authocratic leaders think. They have no problems imposing hardship on their people and just use force to crush any dissent. Then, they amplify the siege mentality with their propaganda, so people who otherwise wouldn't agree can be rallied because "our nation is under attack, we have to stand together".
Also, China has enormous internal resources to get by, even when isolated. Any economic blockade woul'd hurt other countries at least to the same degree or probably a lot more. The world became addicted to cheap and abundant goods from China to such degree that in some product categories, China has virtual global monopoly and the capability of other nations to produce the same goods have disappeared. Even if they can build up those capabilities, how long would that take? China even cornered the world in some materials, having well over 50% of rare earth elements mining. Some of these are vital materials for high-tech weapons manufacturing.
Not only that, but countries would be hurt to different degrees by the economic sanctions so they couldn't even agree among themselves about those. Plus, there would be enough countries opting out of, or quietly sabotaging the sanctions that China could still do some trade and have access to additional resources. For example who would Russa side with? They are not great friends of America at the moment and are they worrried enough about the rise of China? Another unpredictable element.
What is also at play is the traditional, culturally rooted face saving. Taiwan has always been a serious thorn in the side of the PRC leadership and they just don't forget about these things and it just keeps festering in their minds.
Finally, countries who have been at times truely mighty and powerful (like the old Chinese Empire!) feel entitled to have at least the same level of influence in the world as at their height of power. That influence is also subject to overstatement in the national "memory". No country will measure themselves based on when they were weakest. This can also be a strong propaganda weapon within the country.
In the end, I DON'T THINK CHINA WANTS WAR but they want to push the boundaries as much as possible and project their increasing power and influence. The danger is more in the situation inadvertantly escalating and snowballing into something truely serious. A bit like the Cuban Missile Crisis which was a very close shave!
I'm disappointed that well into the 21st Century, there's stil so much political instability and so many causes for concern.
I 100% agree, though I would argue that China probably does want a war - they want Taiwan, and they want it bad. And with as politically unstable the United States and the western world is at the moment, now is the best time for China to make moves - and that worries me.
@@117Jorn They also want Vladivostok. The problem is if expansionism is walid option, because it is extremely easy to outplay yourself, as history of Russia prove constantly. I could be mistaken, but I always assumed China play long game? Actually normalization of relations with Taiwan, is only feasible way to reunite with them.
@Sandor D, couldn’t agree more!
@@TheRezro I think the Koreans have a better chance. However, if they can’t do it then forget normalizing anything between the two Chinas.
@@thebigmoneyshow806 Honestly, I would not be surprised.
There is no conceivable economic advantage to any party in the region to launch a military attack for the purposes of invasion. In a global economy, markets would be devastated. A losing proposition for modern economies, particularly the PRC which thrives on global trade.
That’s right. In todays world you poop on one side of the globe and then the folks on the other side smell the stench immediately, then pass out.
I think it is not “China would not invade Taiwan”; it should be China cannot invade Taiwan.
Very well thought out
Great analysis. No political bs because in the world stage, there are no democrats or republicans, only Americans. Looking at geopolitics from a macro scale, democrats and republicans are aligned in terms of US national interest. China maybe the answer to solve US polarization.
One of the few things both sides agree on right now...
Relying on outside factor to solve an endogenous issue is impossible. All it will do is to deteriorate the issues
@@Macbrother you’d be surprised how many far left people support China over the US
The World is not just Amerika! 🙄
How ridiculous of it, it will only radicalize America foreign policy towards China and cover the true reasons for American polarization
Excellent video. Over 20 years ago, an old gentleman told me about the strategic importance of Taiwan to China. This is the real reason China will never give up on Taiwan. All the people who think it has to do with democracy are just idiots.
It’s easy to ascribe to a realist foreign policy and claim it’s all Cold strategy but you can’t ignore ideology in this. to china, taking Taiwan is tantamount to winning the Chinese civil war. To the ccp, the civil war never ended. Any Chinese leader to who takes Taiwan in their lifetime will go down in history as the communist party leader who finished what mao couldn’t.
To America, defending a strategically important island is great but America really loves being a protector of democracy. Americans take pride in their country as the arsenal of democracy and want to promote these values abroad against tyranny. This was an American ethos since ww2 and the Cold War.
It’s easy to forget that humans have their own biases when it comes to international relations
@@BeaverChainsaw so there is a sane person in this chat section
@@BeaverChainsaw the world needs to remind America that democracy led America down 70 years of unnecessary wars at the expenses of foreign civilians. Bush who recently denounced Putin for the war in Ukraine accidentally slipped and cited Iraq instead of Ukraine when talking about Putins unjust war.
@@ruoyuli4091 Yes, Bush did do that. You are correct, however, that was a mistake.. he wanted to talk about Ukraine, that was one of the topics of that speech. I'm impressed that you are using this as an argument. Secondly, democracy lead U.S.A through many disasters and wins throughout history, there are more wins than disasters, but as anything in life, the negatives usually outvoice the positives. As a quick example for this; there are more law abiding citizens in the U.S.A than unlawful citizens, and still, unlawful citizens get a bigger voice in most news outlets.
Overall, I can guarantee you that many Americans still hold the government for blame for some of the disasters in the middle east, Americans themselves are the biggest fighter against the government. The problem is that you, or any other foreigner(assuming you are a foreigner), believes you have any voice in our government. You don't, only Americans and people that are in America have a voice here, and can change things here. Other nations and their leaders will never be able to beat down America's pride, only Americans can do that.
I am against the wars in the middle east. However, if you try to understand the perspective of the U.S.A on the reasoning behind that war you will comprehend that at the time it was needed. 20 years? I don't think 20 years was necessary, but we definitely needed to go and kill some terrorists.
@@BeaverChainsaw if that is the case, then it Taiwan and their people to choose their fate. Not governed by force from China.
If Taiwan wants independence, it's their choice to air it. The world will support them.
Yes, there's only one China. But there's also Taiwan, if China wants to take it, then do it. We all know what it will cost China both diplomatically and economically. And we all know that Taiwan has friends that help defend against any invading army and help them destroy it. Most likely, that government will fall.
Its becoming less feasible to treat international politics as a PC-strategy game, but I think humans will always find new ways to exploit the system and advance their own interests at the expense of others. So even though China might not try to take Taiwan, or other countries, by conventional military conquest, there surely are plenty of ways for them to impose their influence on others.
Taiwan has the largest semiconductor industry, why wouldn't China want that?
@@craigb8228 Yea, Im sure that'l be something to break the economy-system on
@@craigb8228 blowing up cities and killing it's people isn't a very good way to absorb an economy. Trade relies on partnerships. Why would Taiwan's partners wait patiently for China to rebuild factories and train new workers?
Ways that exploited by US for ages already
@@Caoderrick Yea, sorry you think its unfair that they got away with it, I think so too, how does it help that China does those same things as well?
This is probably the most sensible analysis ever presented on UA-cam.
well done video I also liked how you rotated the map so you can see from Chinese perspective. I think this video should be subtitled also. "5 reasons why China would look stupid after invasion of Taiwan". I hope Taiwan stays independent. this has kept the peace in the world for more than 5 decades.
At Minute 16:05
Why didnt you also point out the economic dependancy of Taiwan on China after well describing it vice versa?
Wouldn't it be interesting to know, after you mentioned the "intertwined economy" and that they both "have come to rely on each other"... at min.16:07???
But like this it seems like a one sided portrayal of the situation.
Taiwan relies on Chinese manufacturing and goods to be imported to produce their products and feed their people. It's more cost-effective for Taiwanese companies to import over shorter distances and cheaper means than it would be from other closer allies.
@@nisenazold a documentary should be neutral and highlight every Detail or information when it is mentioned (see my quoted sentences of his video).
China needs parts from Taiwan to make “iPhones”.
Has anyone considered the complexities and difficulties involved in a war where the soldiers on both sides shared the same language, history, culture, life experiences, etc?
Didn't seem to bother them in tainamen square...
@@timbuktoo2 I guess you must not understand the meaning of the word "war"
That's a good point. As complexities of civil wars?
@@Kamome163 Among other things. Both have been sending each other millions of tourist, business travelers and workers over the past decades. From Taiwan's Official Gov website: "Today, Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China. Between 1991 and the end of March 2020, approved investment in China comprised 44,056 cases totaling US$188.5 billion. In 2019, the value of cross-strait trade was US$149.2 billion. In that year, travelers from China made 2.68 million visits to Taiwan."
There’s been plenty of civil wars throughout history all over the world. Perfect opportunity for you to read up on the complexities and difficulties they caused.
Extremely interesting and informative
Thank you. I learned a lot! I hadn't understood the strategic importance of Taiwan to both the U.S. and China. I wish newscasts on TV would provide this type of understanding.
Wow that's awesome I must say
I did not scroll down through the comments to see if this point was raised but of course Taiwan was a colony of Japan during WWII so it technically fought against the Allies -- Japan conscripted many Taiwanese men to fight in its navy as they were Japanese colonial subjects. But it is of course accurate to say that the Republic of China was on the side of the Allies. The video highlights the island of Taiwan when the narration mentions the Republic of China fighting alongside the Allies, but of course it should be focusing on China (or "mainland" China, as some call it) because at the time, Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT were still over there. It's an interesting distinction, Taiwan and the R.O.C.! Now, on to the rest of the video!
Don't say ROC or PROC. China is the United States of China like America and Taiwan is the Hawaii of USC
@@gracelim2336 Nah. The United States doesn't have to invade its own states and the states don't have their own military. Communist China is only harassing Taiwan over ego and control.
@@bryancasper4402 The Japanese people were originally from China. The First Emperor of China sent a group of very smart Chinese to North East Pacific to find an Anti-OldAge medicine so that he could forever. Unable to find it, they were afraid to go back to China. So they settled on an Island now known as Japan. They married the locals similar to the aboriginals in Alisan Formosa.
Exactly right after Moari pull all the islands out of the sea with his magic hook, Moana right?
@@gracelim2336 Except it isn't. The vast majority of Taiwanese people do not consider themselves a part of China as you are defining it. China is like a couple of stupid parents who try to control their adult children by not letting them make their own decisions. The Taiwanese "moved out" a long time ago. Mainlander's who fall for PROC propaganda simply have no clue what's really going on. Even if China somehow invades and takes over the Island, it won't matter. They've already lost.
If Taiwan wanted to guarantee freedom, it would adopt the Swiss military paradigm. Every man is a soldier. Every man is well trained in arms and keeps a rifle and ammunition in his home. The time for other countries to depend on USA to fight for them is over.
That seems to be a contradiction. Switzerland has always remained neutral
@@johnm7267 No contraction. Hitler's lust for power and uniting the Germanic peoples was deterred by a standing populous, heavily armed.Hitler's first goal was to unite the Germanic peoples. 3 million armed men lead him to by-pass only Switzerland.
Fun fact :According to the constitution of Republic of China(Taiwan),mainland China(People’s Republic of China) is also a part of Republic of China.
This is the first video I've seen that mentions the importance of Japan. There is a huge reason why the U.S. stepped in and rebuilt Japan following WWII. Japan's ruling elite have never forgotten this. Think of Japan as a ferocious guard dog protecting Taiwan's interests. The Chinese have not forgotten how easily Japan invaded and occupied much of the country during WWII. Although I'm no expert on this, I do believe this is one reason that China dares not touch Taiwan in any way, shape or form.
makes no sense, Japan's past aggression is precisely why china cannot let japan control Taiwan
makes no sense, japan's past aggression is precisely why china can't allow japan to control taiwan
Though I agree, you're still overestimating modern Japan's willingness to be a "guard dog". Japan did take a lot of Chinese territories during WW2, but that was a unified warlike fascist Japan hellbent on militarization against the China who were at the time was fragmented by a civil war between PRC and ROC and lots of other local warlords and used mainly world war 1 hand me down weapons from their western allies.
Modern Japan does not have the same attitude the Imperial Japan of the past had. They have become hardcore pacifists who do not want war. The country itself technically doesn't even have it own military on paper due to restrictions.
Make no mistake, Japan is still a scary entity for China. Its "Self-Defense Forces" still boasts equipment that is well above average to highly advanced that China would not easily intimidate them. But the current political climate and opinion toward war make me doubt their commitment to deploy troops beyond their territories (like taiwan) and risk escalating the conflict with China.
@@paulthenotsogreat8118 I agree that Japan has changed a great deal from its Imperial past. The same thing can be said about many countries. But, to say that this way of thinking has totally vanished from that country would also be a mistake. It's there. It may have been beaten back and conquered, but it's still there. It's the same story with Germany. Every once in a great while you see small bands of neo Nazis popping up here and there. Fascism is gone, but to say the thought has been totally wiped out is also wrong.
can you understand why CCP attacked USA India Soviet and Vietnam in last Cold War? it's all about sovereigty, if Taiwan abandon ROC title then PRC would attack immediately.
Chinese would view American as white Japanese to steal Taiwan again.
This is a great video man. I’ve always told my parents and family that China definitely wants Taiwan to be part of it, yet would never attempt to take it back because of the difficulties of actually attacking not even mentioning the economic and global view of it. Thanks for putting this into a video so I can have you explain it instead of explaining it myself every time 😂
@素食吉祥净心净土 你是哪国人？
The author or owner of this video lack the knowledge of Putin Ukrainian game in relation to China and Taiwan. The Putin/Xi’s plan is to confuse the continued provocation of US hegemonism
@@jackogrady6544 obviously from China, Taiwanese netizens would never use Simplified Chinese. Even though there are some Taiwan citizens that supports unification, especially businesses, they still behave and use input methods as usual Taiwanese.
However, I have a Taiwan friend and classmate, he seems convinced Taiwan cannot be defended, and its only a matter of time that China unified Taiwan. As such, he still keeps his Malaysian citizenship, despite having a Taiwanese family (his father is from Taiwan and his mom is Malaysian, according to him, his father is the former secretary of Transportation ministry) and spent many years in Taiwan.
@@3mKay arr....never. unless the 1450 who keep pretending as mainland chinese , who goes everywhere and create conflict between each other. never?
China will only invade if the status quo is not maintained at it feels that Taiwan is drifting from it. In 1990s, Jiang Zemin offered Taiwan nominal unification, where Taiwan keeps its democracy, its systems, its army, but it can send representatives to Beijing to the government, and confirm it is part of China.
The issue is, the status quo is slowly being changed as the USA is encouraging Taiwan to inch towards independence. At this point, war is likely because what the USA says about the one-China policy does not match its actions in encouraging Taiwan independence. If the USA wants to prevent war and maintain the status quo, it should reign in Tsai and her DPP from making moves towards independence. Taiwan can remain as Taiwan with her democracy as long as she says she is part or is China.
I recommend this video by US experts on the issue: ua-cam.com/video/HNWTknTFNS4/v-deo.html&ab_channel=WatsonInstituteforInternationalandPublicAffairs
Oh, and I loved your citations in real time throughout the video; backing up one's words is not a popular style on most UA-cam channels! Great job.
Thank you, David!
Thank you for the thoughtful and reassuring analysis.
An excellent, well-presented, well-thought-out video. First rate.
Thank you for including Trump when explaining the U.S. support of Taiwan. I will say that continuing to back Taiwan is a good move on Biden's part. I'm not a Biden fan at all, but let's give credit where it's due for both sides. You don't have to go against everything a president does just because you don't like them. Focus on what you value. Think for yourself.
Thank you, Keaton! There's a lot of people who should read your comment!🙌
@@chasseausanglier3390 The PLA’s performance in the 1979 war was so bad, even Vietnamese commanders were surprised, according to some sources. This was a result of its reliance on Korean War-style infantry assault tactics, due to the operational inflexibility and stagnation of military thought in the PLA. The layout of the command structure, and the infrastructure that supported it, could not support maneuver warfare by smaller units of higher-quality forces.
@@chasseausanglier3390 Nah none of that. US in Vietnam war lasted years while China invaded of North Vietnam lasted months. It was taught in history book in Vietnam that Chinese army fled Vietnamese territory so quickly and surprisingly haha
@@thangvictor1184 Nuking Taiwan is a terrible idea.
For China specially.
It will create nuclear waste in one of China's most important seas for food and trade.
Wise words.
I’ve been following China for the past 3 years and this is one of the greatest videos I’ve seen on here! It was so pleasant to watch and also so informative, 10/10.
Thank you so much Andres!🙌
現在才看到這部影片
感謝分析台海情勢！
I have been arguing many of the points that you have made with some armchair generals from the US who have asserted that China could just walk into Taiwan, given the discrepancy between the number of military personnel/equipment available to the two countries. I think the events of the last few weeks in Ukraine back up what you have said. Missile improvement has changed the military equation. The Russians thought that the could use their superior numbers of tanks/APCs in a blitzkrieg but Javelins/NLAWs etc.. can obviate the advantage at a fraction of the cost. Surface navies now are just collections of different sizes of missile platforms but are themselves susceptible to anti-ship missiles.
Those guys are pretty dull. Taiwan would bleed China dry.
One factor that seems paramount is that if China thinks they have a chance of quickly taking Taiwan they might be tempted to do so. Thus it is critical that Taiwan maintains a defense that makes this if not unlikely at least it makes it highly uncertain.
As such Taiwan may have to spend more on defense and less on social programs and such which is clearly and unfortunate turn of events but it seems a necessary one.
And Chans huge investment in its military build up seems misguided in that neither Japan nor Taiwan is likely ever to pose a threat military to China and Chinas military build up is only causing them to follow suit.
And China's claim that Taiwan is a breakaway province doesn't hold water either in that the government their at one time was the national government of China and is now in exile, not the same thing as a break away province.
Perhaps the real impetus for China's determination to take Taiwan is that they are a free democracy and that is what they perceive is the threat, but not a military one but a political one.
But hopefully they will content themselves with mere saber rattling instead of actually ever drawing the sword, for the later could ultimately be their undoing given it provokes a world war.
But that huge military build up sounds ominous and seems to be going beyond mere saber rattling and as such the situation looks grave and hopefully will not spiral out of control over the next years.
That is the real danger of an authoritarian state like China in that much of this lies with the power of just one man and as such China might be wise to attempt to curtail his power, which (unfortunately) does not seem to be what is happening at the present.
Thus China has come a long way over the last century and this obsession with Taiwan can likely only jeopardize those gains. For the real threat is not to China but to communism which has proven to be a failure over and over again.
For a while it looked like China was moving away from that and as they did so they prospered greatly. Now there seems to be a reactionary move away from that which, like many a dictatorship, focuses on some foreign enemy as one of its tenets.
Thus it seems the more prudent course of action could be summed up in a little slogan, trade not invade.
But as some of the other commenters have said, nations do not always act with prudently and especially it seems authoritative ones, one more reason to avoid having one. Thus the threat of war seems menacingly high unless China decides to change its present course.
The military build-up is more for spending, giving jobs to people and creating this aura of strength for the domestic audience. China cannot afford to lose more young people, especially to war. They are a fast aging demographic and they're now reaping the disastrous one-child policy of the previous decades. Not enough young people to fill the factories and take care of the elderly. When Japan hit the aging population crisis, their economy is already developed. China is still struggling with a massive level of poverty. And I doubt families with only 1 child will take kindly to being asked to sacrifice their only son, effectively ending their sacred familial bloodline, for a political cause with dubious benefits for themselves.
@@leejimFMSA China is angry. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
China needs to build a big navy for the same reasons any large economy does. They need to protect their interests abroad and also fend off potential attacks by others. Taiwan is but one consideration.
LoL, Fundamental decision is not Xi Ping prerogative.. there a council of senior members that will discuss the pro n cons..
@@leejimFMSA Re: Fast aging demographic... Convenient that a virus that disproportionately affects elderly people emerged in China.
Well considering Russia seems to be stacking on the Ukraine border ready to invade at anytime, and china and Russia have some sort of pact.. I wouldn't be surprised if both invasions were coordinated.. that would make stopping either an even tougher prospect..
Unfortunately, you have a great point. The US used to plan for being heavily involved in 2 separate theaters at once, and still have enough reserve forces to put out a hot spot that sprang up in a third location. I don't believe our logistical support system is up to that level of simultaneous challenges any more. Let us hope and pray for peace to prevail. This world does not need an armed conflict between major powers, especially after all the disruptions that covid-19 has wrought upon the entire world's supply chains!
@@patriciawilliams1232 nah we will be chillin forever.
China and Russia have had long decades of mistrust and border wars thst has erupted into shooting wars with close to nuclear exchange. Mao once told Kruschev that China can lose 500 million people in a nuclear war and still have enough people to continue fighting. They may have an agreement now but it won't last. They both want to be thr top dog and the world is not big enough for both of them at the top.
@@ms.annthrope415 russia is nothing next to china, both their gdp and population is too small to be even considered even
@@invasion8318 Really wouldn’t matter if it ever goes nuclear.
2:04 they’re still called the Republic of China, and no they do not consider themselves as a different country
I've learned more today than from this video than from any other source over the last years. It was so informative, but scarey about the end results. Who knows what will be the outcome down the road. Hopefully things will go in our best interests. I'm from the USA for the last 66 years. This world needs to get along and to be in peace. Look out for our neighbors, not take from them. When we pass, everything material stays on Earth.
Bravo sir! You've said in 20 minuets what took me a decade of conversations, research, and time on this amazing island to understand. And, your awesome visuals coupled with your clear and concise language regarding the multifaceted complexities that are Taiwan, truly make this a much watch for anyone concerned with the region. I'll leave you with an open invitation to come check out Kaohsiung for yourself!
He skip to mention the Chinese dare not set foot on senkaku island which the japanese did. duh?😮
TRUE PREPARE ALL THE TIME. NOTE!! A DROP OF PROTECTION IS A POUND OF CURE. ALELOEA.
It's funny as well as weird that Taiwan's ADIZ encroaches into China's mainland territory. Chinese planes in their own airspace have to identify themselves to Taiwan.
it's a feature of those things I think, if it stopped at the maritime border that would already be well within striking distance.
June, that's true! That's because Taiwan ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) monitors the PLA's Air Base closer to Taiwan, thus any movement is immediately detected.
@@Kamome163 @Kamome me again .
I know from your previous videos what your IQ level is at , so I will make it short and simple to accomodate your intellect :
WE CHINESE WILL GO NUCLEAR AND WILL GO WORLD WAR THREE over taiwan island. you can lie what you like and con who you like , but make sure you have the guts to come try us when our forces retake taiwan island. TALK IS CHEAP ！
If monitoring is a good reason, China could also have an ADIZ to cover the entire Taiwan. I know why they don't do it, because Taiwan is already part of China. It's redundantly unnecessary.
@@Kamome163 What does the international media say? that China is invading Taiwanese Airspace? why to me it sounds like Anti China BS
Objectively, there’s no 2 China , only 2 Chinese government. PRC was recognised by UN, and ROC was not.
I really liked how you've explained all the possibilities that may have pushed China away to not take any sudden movements. However, when you highlighted the borders of every country there, except for the one that is NEPAL being right in the middle of China and India. This video gives a puzzled impression to the viewers who are not geographically aware where the country lies. I think you should create a clear boarder lines separating small countries too, so that people do not misjudged the part of the NEPAL as half China and Half India.
Thank you 🙏
I think he does not even know his stuff well, merely a mouth piece for some NGO
Surprisingly Nepal had a successful communist revolution in the early 2000s
He didn't even include Palawan archipelago as part of the Philippines...
China is angry. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
ua-cam.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/v-deo.html
Nepal is famous for it's Gurkhas, warriors who are prized by India and the U.K. They also are famous for Sherpas, the porters on Mt. Everest expeditions. I'd think twice about fighting them on their home turf. Also, the air is extremely thin, hard to use "force multipliers" like artillery and any helicopters.
This channel is going to blow up. Little did I know I've heard your voice before in the Cowboy Bepop abridged clip lol going from that to this is quite the step up and the script writers are doing a great job as well. Keep up the good content guys.
i guess this video's channel is a comedy
The Cowboy Bepop clip is our narrator's hidden gem!❤️ Thank you for the support, Ethan!
@@sinoroman 😅
Long live the free and independent people of Taiwan. Should an invasion come, we will fight in your defense! A salute from Philippines!
Phillippines should really fix their "pag-pag" and drug cartel problems first. And also Pasig River and separatists in Palawan and Mindanao.
@@abellyold4859 that's very true. But every country has domestic problems. Indonesia, France, Germany, Canada. Even the great USA has "city of tents", homeless people, white supremacists and shootings in kid's schools every month. Now another industrial disaster in Ohio, due to poor railroad maintenance. Very sad. But despite internal problems, Philippines managed to send rescuers in Turkey and Syria devastated by earthquakes. Filipinos are not selfish and will help Taiwan