Nobody is going to run 9.27 by 2025. That's ridiculous. Nobody is going to run anything under 9.50 in the next 15 years at the very least. Maybe ever. World record improvements don't stay linear forever. Bolt was a once-every-one-hundred-years athlete and you won't see anyone like him for a while.
@Chris M. - You are perfectly right. 2025 would be the next World Athletics and if 9.80 secs is current time for 100meters won by that Italian in 2021, I don't think 2025 would be the time. Perhaps even 100 yrs or more Usain Bolt's record would still stand.
@@laos85 Factors that will accelerate towards 9.50 - Running shoes Technology - More precise timing devices - Diet & Evolution of the human body - Studies on science of running - Greater population, so chances of a superhuman athlete are more. - [Developing nations now have access to these races. In the 90s few countries could take their top athletes to this stage. Currently, a Kenyan has just broken the 10.00 barrier for the first time in the country's history. Expect more countries to field athletes ]
@tigergold5990 Bolt, Gay, Blake, Gatlin and Powell were a special generation. They could run in the 9.70's relatively frequently. And they were all caught doping except for Bolt. But Maurice Green ran a 9.79 as far back as 1999. He would've won this year's olympics with that time. The best times for 2019, 2020 and 2021 (so far) were 9.76, 9.86 and 9.77, respectively. The fastest sprinters in the world have been hovering around 9.80 for 30 years. There's been only 45 sprints below 9.80 and 12 were run by Bolt. Under 9.7, it's 3 out of 5. That's how good he was. He ran the fastest #1 and #2 times ever by a mile. Bolt's 9.58 was simply insane, an oddity in every sense, and completely off the charts. He was over a tenth faster than anyone has ever been. I can't overstate how big of a gap that is at the elite level. It's like lapping the entire field in Formula 1. Gay ran an absolutely blistering 9.71 in that race, and still lost by a meter and a half. If Bolt didn't exist, that 9.71 would have been the fastest time in history at the time. He did improve to 9.69 later on, and Blake tied that. And that was the best anyone could manage. Bolt was a monster. Nobody is getting anywhere near his record for a long, long time, if ever. Based on the times athletes are running today, there is no indication whatsoever that sprinters will be half a second faster within 5 years. At all. Sprinters have barely gained a few hundredths in 30 years, with Bolt being the sole exception.
By this logic Mike Powell's long jump record should have been broken long ago. It's been 29 years now and since then no one has been able to jump 8.95m or beyond.
Actually that isnt even true. 5 times in that exact event he and carl lewis jumped 8.90m or longer with "an illegal wind". I'm willing to bet if you include non legal jumps 8.95 has been beaten
If the human physical limit is truly 9.27 seconds, then it would be approached asymptotically. That is, by a curved line that would get closer and closer to that limiting number. That would push out the year when it could be approached well into the 2100s and maybe the 2200s. It's going to take longer and longer to have such a unique athlete that is capable of running that fast. The next Bolt might be 30 years in the future, for example. He would 'merely' break 9.58. And then there would have to be another Bolt after him and so on as the record drops ever more slowly.
I think an inverse logarithmic graph would be more suitable for something like this. Point being, the closer to that theoretical 9.27 runners get, the slower progress will be due to so many different factors having to be perfected.
Why is it not possible you know muscles can easily be modified with pain and training so we can reach there without any genetical modification or surgery. LOL when I say training I meant super harsh training ok
It’s line of best fit based on statistical data entries that contain facts . Not a physics equation. The prediction 2050 for human evolution in track and field is based on a trend already recorded as facts in history. Stop being so dumb bro . 0 seconds is improbable .
@@shaneclaridge8888 technically the line of best fit should be asymptotic and therefore cannot be a straight line. He should've represented the data on a logarithmic graph and plotted a curved line of best fit. But what do I know? I failed my engineering degree.
Tom Nicholls well idk bro to art students we sound like rocket scientists so that’s all that matters these days. Give your degree another go what you got to lose 😁
Yep - another genetic freak will always eventually arise and shatter these (and all other) records. And that's what all of these top athletes are. They are genetic freaks compared to the average human.
ive just looked at the 2 best 100m runs from usain in the 100m, in the Beijing race at 7.9 seconds he begins to break his form and celebrate he finishes the race with exactly 7 strides, on his world record run, with exactly 7.9 seconds he completes the race with only 6 strides. i think its fair to say if in beijing he continued to power through the final 15-30 metres, he wouldve achieved low 9.5 or even high 9.4... incredible.
Same exact thing I saw. In 2008, had he kept his discipline he was mid 9.5 Easy, which would have completely shattered Human concept. But Usain is human, and he lost himself in the moment because he made Olympian sprinters look collegiate. For me, I think 6'3" quick twitch muscles, loose but truly disciplined may approach this 9.27.
@@julianandygumbsVI dont get me wrong the showboat was legendary... but bolt should be 9.5 or 9.4... i think someone his height and size will come along some time and be 9.3/9.4 and achieve a perfect race. only thing i dont like is that i think if bolt hit 9.4 his time wouldve stood for maybe 50-100 years
I believe it is not impossible to finish a 100m sprint in 9.27 seconds but the athletes's career wouldn't be that long. Bolt retired much earlier compared to other record holders is a very good example to prove my point. Muscle strains within sub 10 is already bad enough, imagine running within 9.8 to 9.7 for most of the times. For Bolt case, he sometimes hit 9.6. So yeah, teachnique and all other good stuff can improve the sprint. But can a human body really keep up with the thing you want it to do?
I think their is possibility to improove the record. Sprinters can’t keep their max speed for long but many lack of core sheating if you compare to calisthenic athletes so I feel they could improove
I think Bolt retired earlier because he was not at his peak anymore, and he wanted to leave this sport as a winner, he could have continued but he had everything to lose. Just my opinion
The absolute quickest time will be more like 9.4 to 9.45 seconds. Usain Bolt was so close to breaking the bones in his feet when he achieved 9.58. The human limit before bone breakage is so close now. We simply cannot generate anymore force than 1100 pounds or our bones simply crush under that force. If we give a runner like Bolt an absolutely perfect start he could do sub 9.48 but not a whole lot better. We are basically at the human limit for speed right now.
bolts running technique was really bad, he wasted too much energy in the beginning which caused him to be much slower in the end and compared to gatlin it looks like hes running for the first time in his life, but his effort and talent is unmatched
I like his analysis. Good attempt at predicting the expected time it will take to run the theoretical 9.27. However, in 1988 after Ben Johnson ran 9.79, someone did a similar study and determined the fastest a human can run is 9.58. Well....we are there now. The current WR is 9.58 and it could have been lower if Bolt ran through the line when he ran that 9.69 in 2008.
9.62 if he didn't slow down because he only slowed down in the last 10-meter split which he ran by 0.90. In the 80-90m he ran in 0.83 which is what he would've done in the 90-100 if he continued running if he didn't dance at the end. The improvement would've been 7 hundreds of a second. If you don't believe me look at 2008 vs 2009 bolt 10 meter splits on google images and you will see. The big question is whatBolt would've run at Berlin in 2009 if he had a great 0-10m. His best 0-10 was in Beijing but his Reaction Time was bad so if you combine the 2009 reaction time and the 2008 0-10m you get an improvement of 0.06 which would get 9.58 to 9.52. Let's not stop there, in2012 London (9.63) Bolt had a bad start and had to compensate for that by running a faster second half than the 2009 race. The improvement was 0.02 in the 70-90m if you also add that Bolt could've done 9.50 based on what we have seen so far from him. Now on top of that, he could still improve his Reaction Time since in Berlin it was 0.146. World-class sprinters reaction Times are around 0.120 which would improve his time by around 0.02. So far we are down to 9.48 And on top of that still, Michael Johnson said Bolt's drive phase 0-20m in both 2008 and 2009 is BS which could make a slight improvement of several hundreds of a second which is why Johnson and Bolt both guessed that he could probably hit 9.4
I don't know when anyone will run 9 .27 but on March, 16, 2032 a 26 year old American named Dwight Levant will break Usain Bolts record with a time of 9 .51. Bolts held the record for 23 years.
I actually think it can lower. But to run the absolute fastest possible time, we will need essentially compete perfection. You'll need the precise anatomical structure that is perfect for sprint speed. You'll also need someone with genes that are perfectly specialised for sprint speed, such as an ideal balance of muscle fibre types, ACTN-3 gene etc. This would need to be combined with the most effective possible training. I'm a sprint coach and I have dealt with many elite athletes and top level coaches, and I can tell you that none of us have training methods that are perfect as such. Having said that, the training methods used are the best techniques known and available. But obviously the best we have does not mean the absolute best, most ideal training programme possible. The ideal genes and perfect anatomy not only needs to exist. That person needs to first of all be interested in sprinting and then identified and placed into the right circumstances to compete against other elite athletes. I guarantee you that there are people living right now that are a good deal more suited to sprinting than even Bolt. It's just that they're not training for it and have not entertained the idea of racing. A lot of factors need to align to make it all fall into place. Then of course, looking at trends, we need to consider the law of diminishing returns, which is more or less infinite. To the point where improvements on records take a compounded duration to occur. Let's say we do find another Bolt in 15 years. Perhaps he will break the record, most likely by a very tiny margin. Let's say 9.55 seconds. The likelihood of another Bolt after him takes longer to find because he needs to be ever so slightly better than the last guy, not just the same. Another 3 or 4 Bolts down the line could be 150 years just to break into the 9.4 range. Chipping that down to 9.3 and then 9.2 would take even longer. And by that time will people even be training to sprint like that? Gene editing and technology is going to make it less appealing to just play the genetic and coaching lottery.
Bolt, if he had run the perfect race, with a really good start, and continuing to run right through the line, could perhaps have run 9.37 sec for the 100m, but he never really had to perfect his technique and experience perfect conditions.
Usain's Charisma played a very important role. Otherwise the media would have shown him like a boy from poor family breaks world record. Many champions lost their recognition just because media portrayed them in a patronizing way. But Usain was smart to get the politics and marketed himself to become a brand.
I can run 9.08 seconds and I’m only 2 years old 💪🏻 Edit: I had no idea so many people would take this comment seriously lmao Edit 2: It’s a joke, guys.
Omg, don’t be so naive!!! There has been mathematical explanations. Track, shoes, etc. Made the biggest difference. NOT some mythical human evolution over 50 years
Actually yes there has been evolution in human workout and understanding how fast twitch muscles work. The evolution you're thinking of is out of context. And the PEDs having gotten better and will continue to do so
It's odd how much slower the current generation of sprinters are, the gold medalist Noah Lyles this year won by thousandths of a second and his best recorded time wouldn't even hang with Asafa's best recorded time, let alone Justin Gatlin, Tyson Gay, Yohan Blake, and Usain Bolts
I remember when bolt started jogging at the last 20-25 meter and still got a time of 9:78 I think imagine how fast his time would’ve been if he kept sprinting
@@MichaelTaphouse 😂 look around man the domino affect has been going on since the 70s. Also We're 💯 going to experience a magnetic excursion before 2050.
The problem with graphs can be expressed by looking at the men's pole vault, long jump, high jump, and shot put world records: In roughly thirty years there have been only small improvements, if at all, in these (and other) world records. The first of the pair of 8 foot high jumps the great Javier Sotomayer achieved was all the way back in 1989. Serge Bubkas first pole vaulted 20 feet in 1991 and would add about 2 inches to both the indoor and outdoor records in the next few years. Both records have been exceeded by about an inch each. Randy Barnes shot put record of 75' 9" from 1990 still stands. In the 53 years since Bob Beamons freakish jump at the 68' Olympics the world record has increased by 1 and a half inches! I doubt a graph would have anticipated such near stagnation in these events. Or, going in the other direction, someone like Usain Bolt. His records must have been quite ahead of their time, according to the graphs.....
Bolt ran a 9.58 and literally held that speed for the 200 to set the wr at 19.19! If he wasn’t trotting across the finish line smiling he definitely could’ve ran 9.4! But it wouldn’t have been as epic!!
I almost hope we end up being surprised someday and someone comes along and runs an 8.99 just because it feels like Bolts record won't be broken for a while. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing either, just might be cool to see history happen again. It would be hard for anybody to match the type of icon Bolt was though, nobody could dislike Usain Bolt
Obviously, there is a limit as you point out. But I don’t think a linear model works for the prediction here. It might be something like T=T_limit+exp(-Coefficient* Year). Before Bolt, there was a slow decline of the duration from 9.79 to 9.74, which took 8 years( from 9.83 to 9.79 it took 11 years). But then there was Bolt, it took him only 2 years to drop the duration from 9.74 to 9.58. Usain Bolt is a Genius in sprinting of the century, which is an outlier of any model(and of course including my suggested one). The arrival of such a genius to the world is unpredictable just like Newton and Einstein for physics. It’s quite likely that the 9.58 won’t be broken for a very very long time. No sprinter is even close to 9.69 these days. We have to be very very luck to witness breaking of the 9.58 record within our lifetime.
I once ran the 100m and a funny thing happened. Even though there was an unmeasured headwind, I did it unofficially in 9:19 and I remarked because I thought this could never be possible. I also remarked because of the fact that I did 9:19 for the 100m and Bolt did 19:19 for the 200m. I work out in the mornings, take a long break … and then work out again in the evenings so I absolutely remarked when the video recording showed that at the moment that I broke Usain's record the time was stamped at exactly 9:19am and when I repeated this in the evening the time was stamped at 19:19. I had goosebumps with what was going on. This was more than incidence. This was CO-incidence!!! But after remarking so many times I asked Myself: "Myself, why do I remark so much?". BTW: "Myself" is the name of my neighbour's dog. Myself doesn't speak English, so he didn't answer. But I thought that all this remarking meant I was perhaps a remarkable being. I know this makes me sound like a dog. I sometimes sound like Myself. Back to the 110m sprints. We double checked the timings and fearing something must be wrong. I then ran the 100m another 3 times in a row just to make sure. I clocked exactly 9:19 in every instance. I am 22 years old at the moment. It wasn't long before my name was in all the headlines. Another funny thing is my name. My actual name is made up of two names that have to be repeated 3 times in order to hear the name clearly. Read this out fast: "My actual name is Akchewal Nayem, Akchewal Nayem, Akchewal Nayem". When I run fast my mother says: "Aahh ... that's my little actual name" You can read my book about this experience. The book’s has a slightly long title. In fact the title is so long that the book’s title has a name. The book title's name is also quite long: The book’s title's name is: "THE YOUNG MAN FROM DUDUZANA WHO RAN FASTER THAN USAIN BOLT , WHO'S NAME IS AKCHEWAL NAYIM ... NOT SAYING USAIN'S NAME IS AKCHEWEL … NO AKCHUWEL IS THE NAME OF THE NEW FASTEST MAN ON THE PLANET" Officials from all over the world flew in after reading my book. They just could not believe this stuff. The all gathered, met and their opening remark was: “We have to investigate how in the world it could be possible for a book to have a title that is so long, that the title has a name, and the name of the title has a nickname ... and all these names together make up most of the book” The book was four hundred pages long, and the nickname of the title was nick-nayim which was quite short, and the actual name of the title was a paragraph long, but the actual title was 388 pages. That left a mere 2 pages of reading if you take into account all the pictures in the book. The pictures of me, with lots of flab around my short body made everyone suspicious about my claim to be taller than Usain Bolt. But I was cleared of lying when they discovered I had innocently used an under-calibrated ruler to measure my height. This led to further investigations which concluded that on the other end of the scale … I had used an over-calibrated tape measure to measure out the 100m on the track. In 9:19 seconds I was actually running 57 metres, which of course was only 100m if you rounded up to the nearest 100 meters. Eish!!! But I have now corrected the length of the track to exactly 100m. But here’s the real twist in this story: The mind is a funny thing. I set out with new determination to un-embarrass myself regarding this fiasco. As hard as it is to believe, my times on this real 100m track are now back to 9:19. All that remains is to officially calibrate the new solar powered clocks that I personally built to time these sprints. Especially since I only use them in the evenings. You can subscribe to this comment: Guys ... if you like this comment then please like it, comment on it and subscribe to it. Usain may be tall but he’s “tall” is nothing compared to my stories.
It should be a curve not a straight line. According to this graph the WR would be gone under 9s in another 100 years and you have mentioned that it is humanly impossible,
The trend was already non linear by early 2000. If you fix the regression line to begin to flatten post 1960s then it would predict that nobody will touch 9.3 prior to 2100.
Remember that Bolt’s record was achieved on a slow surface track. I would’ve liked to watch him run on a faster track and perhaps break 9.55 If Bolt’s record is broken, I would attribute some of the speed to that. Regardless, I don’t believe 9.27 is attainable. I’ll likely be dead by 2050. But I will still admire Bolt’s ability from heaven.
The perfect human being would manage to go even lower. That is, a runner with perfect dedication, perfect training intelligence, perfect sprinting genetics and who joins a sprinting environment at the earliest age where crucial sprinting adaptations can be made. Give this ‘machine’ of a human being the perfect race where he is in peak shape and has competition that drives him further, and surely he must be able to run close to 9 flat. But the probability of that happening is EXTREMELY low, so low that it might as well be zero.
It took 100 years for an anomaly like Bolt to come by to run 9.58 because his height, stride length and power variables were beyond anyone whoever came by before. (41 steps vs 44) He's a physical accident or perfection (however you look at it) No one at the top level has ever been that tall. The fact that no one else has gone below 9.69 and that relevant increases in technology at this point will be hard to come by, and the fact that most races finish at what? 9.8 , 9.9 amongst the best now, all make even 9.4 very hard to imagine. It would take a Bolt type specimen, don't think a shorter guy will ever run 9.5..maybe I'm wrong. Blake's 9.69 looks like almost as perfect a run as you could imagine for a non- total anomaly sprinter.
Or if he had not celebrated 10 meters before he crossed the line when he broke the record in Berlin. 9.58 could have been less.....I just watched it and he held out his hands and started slapping his chest
According to Michael Johnson, if Bolt had improved his running mechanics, the record could have been lowered to 9.4. I agree. In the future, historians will mention Bolt's poor mechanics and what could have been.
I think human physical limit for 100m dash is between 9.45 - 9.50. Human brute force should be able to achieve 9.50; however, anything below 9.50 can be achieved by human brute force aided by technology, training regimen and medicine (I don't mean performance enhancement drugs here). For example, if Usain Bolt were to be at his peak and ran on the tracks of Tokyo 2020 Olympics where they had improved tracks, he could have made between 9.50 and 9.55. I don't see humans making under 9.40 in the 100 m dash.
Top 50 Greatest Sprinters of all time Male and Female (Ranked) 1. Bolt 2. Johnson 3. Fraser-Pryce 4. Lewis 5. Felix 6. Greene 7. Perec 8. Campbell-Brown 9. Gatlin 10. Thompson-Herah 11. Meritt 12. Wariner 13. Van Nierkerk, Ohuruogu, Freeman 16. Cuthbert 17. Devers 18. Ottey 19. Torrence 20. Szewinska 21. Miller-Uibo 22. Kirani James 23. Schippers 24. Stecher 25. Flo-Jo 26. Linford Christie, Richards-Ross 28. Calvin Smith 29. Borzov 30. Bryzgina 31. Donovan Bailey, Gardiner, Koch 34. Gay, Block 36. Jesse Owens, Rudolph, Joe Morrow, Tolan, Craig, Hahn, Tyus, Wockel, Brisco-Hooks, Marjorie Jackson, Blankers-Koen 47. Kenteris 48. Marion Jones, Krabbe, Moller What do you think of my ranking? Any notable sprinters you think I forgot to mention? Any sprinter that shouldn't be on the list? The list is purely based on accomplishment and results. It doesn't take into account what you did outside the sport
If Bolt hadn't slowed down to showboat in his first 100m world record run, he would have easily broken the 9.40-second mark. I agree with your point. A 19.27-second time could be run in 2050 or thereabouts.
One day there will be some legend who can beat the 100m 200m and 400m and will just be insane thrashing everyone in every race and no one will be able to touch them
Usain Bolt is 6ft. 4 inches, so someone about 7ft plus, whose stride is as fast or faster would probably go sub 8 seconds. Sports tend to get larger competitors when the records and milestones are broken.
Cool video TSP, but 2 issues come to mind. #1, What is your name? Most people who have channels start with ‘Hey folks, Jim here...” #2, more importantly, you shouldn’t fit the data with a line, or linear, fit. Why? Because you said that times will never get below 9.27 seconds, then proceed to fit the data with a straight line that will eventually drop below 9.27s, so obviously that’s not a good fitting curve shape to use. My first guess would be to fit using an exponentially decreasing function with an added constant of 9.27s. That would be y=9.27+a*exp(-b*x), where a and b are the fitting constants. Note that in this function as x goes to infinity, the exponential term goes to 0 and y=9.27s, exactly what you want. Try it... BTW GO PARKVIEW, I Live nearby in Lilburn!!
The same question can be asked for humans. How do my classmate run SO MUCH faster than me even though he doesn’t even workout or anything? The answer is genetics. He’s blessed by being fast muscle fibres dominant. He may beat me in 100m, 200m and 400m race, but in 800m and anything above I can beat him like nothing.
1. Cheetahs are cheetahs, not humans. 2. Cheetahs 'train' from the day they learn to run til basically the day they die. Their program is the 'catch your extremely fast food or die' protocol.
I think athletics is more psychological than people typically realize. Witness the fact that once Roger Bannister broke 4 minutes, lots of other people did it after he did. Performance is in the body, but it’s also in the mind. People can do things once other people show that it can be done. So the key for me is who can BELIEVE that this 9.27 time is really possible. Of course everything has to be in place for such absolute peak performance. The psychological is just one aspect. But it’s an important aspect.
When Bolt made his record he started to celebrate ten meter before the line, if he would been kept his head ahead and extended his body, easilly he would be 9.40
Another good video. I have read that the limit is 9:40. Your analysis, however, makes me think more about it. Usain Bolt's record is very touchable, and reachable. I have read an article which predicts that all the track and field world records will be broken in the next couple decades. It is very hard to believe, but, there are always new ways to break records. The question is " what is the limit?" We do not really know. Yet, Scientific Research does not even provide the answer or determine the limit. So, is it 9:27 or even faster or maybe slower than than 4:40? The "time to be broken" can be predicted if we know the answer. The problem with Scientific Research in this matter is that there is no set in stone or fact about that.. it is the approximate game.
Bander Always appreciate your input! I’m skeptical about the 9.27. I mean, that’s just insanely fast. Also, I’m not wholly convinced that foot-to-ground contact is the only remaining variable to look at here. I’m sure that 100 years ago nobody would have predicted that a 9.58 would be possible. However it happened!
I saw an analysis of what Bolt would have run on the night he ran 9.58 if conditions have been perfect: 2.0 m following wind, altitude, etc. the answer, by golly, was 9.27 seconds.
Alejandro Torres While I think Bolt’s 9.58 is incredible, and it is, I fully expect that someone will break it one day. Yes, Bolt is an absolute beast, the likes of which we’ve never seen before, but considering there’s a theoretical infinite amount of time to pass, I’m sure someone will challenge it. As far as running a 9.27 goes, I’m much more skeptical.
@@TotalRunningProductions strong challenge... 9:27 I love it... One day it just happen... Unknown train well... and beat the record.. & your expectation comes true... keep watch it...
According to this the guy who will break the record isn't even born yet. Even if he was he would break the world record on the year of his retirement at the age of 30.
As a physicist and mathematician im just here to say that just because you can put a straight line through any set of data does not mean you should or it has any correlation.
People don't understand every world record are a one hundred years athlete that goes beyond human limits. He's just the lucky guy that was born with genies nobody else has and another person like or better than him doesn't happen in just 30 years. But with how technology's heading that time is simply just a normal man and nothing special which in your thinking can happen around 30-50 years.
I would say for the 100m we are at the point where an analysis such as this should incorporate input from a biomechanics expert. Such an individual might, for example, set a “pure technology” asymptote (e.g. the minimum time a non-human sprint robot with “bionic” legs would require to cover the distance), and then apply a human performance factor (a metric actually used in robotics engineering) greater than 1.0 to this to approximate a realistic non-augmented human capability. The point is, even bionic legs will never be able to complete a 100m in a second, or likely even 3 or 4 seconds, reinforcing the point made by others that the prediction line must be asymptotic, not linear. As an example - and this is merely a lay person’s guess for illustration purposes - let us say the bionic legs could achieve a 100m time of 5 seconds. Apply a human performance factor of 1.7 commonly used in robotics engineering to represent human performance, and the result is a projected minimum achievable 100m time of 5 x 1.7 = 8.5 seconds. And this is the asymptote, which means you would never actually achieve 8.5, only come very (very very very!) close to it. And The only thing this analysis does not model is how long it would take to get very very close to 8.5 seconds. Maybe 10 years. Maybe 50 years. But what is certain a non-augmented human would NEVER run less than 8.5 seconds (in this particular analysis using these particular assumptions).
@@jr_guess Bolt already ran 9.58 in an Olympic final. Was it a perfect race for him? No. Did he have wind assistance? No. Did he have max legal wind assistance? No. Those two factors could definitely remove three tenths of a second.
A wind change of 0.9 - 2.0 m/s = -0.04, a reaction time of 0.155 to 0.100 = -0.06, a track like rieti = -0.07. There is simply no way bolt could take 3 entire tenths of a second. The absolute best bolt could do is a low 9.5/high 9.4
@@jr_guess I believe you. But there's also just the factor of running a perfect race after a perfect start. In his peak years he only pushed through the finish line in like 10% of his races. So he reduced his perfect race sample size by like 90%.
The sound barrier was thought to be impossible. The 4 minute mile. 300mph in drag racing. We only need to discover the mitochondrion supercharger to make it happen.
Next frontier is the technology brands like Nike will put in the feet of the atletes, with shanks made of carbon fiber, and another features imported from marathon ones
Nobody is going to run 9.27 by 2025. That's ridiculous.
Nobody is going to run anything under 9.50 in the next 15 years at the very least. Maybe ever.
World record improvements don't stay linear forever.
Bolt was a once-every-one-hundred-years athlete and you won't see anyone like him for a while.
@Chris M. - You are perfectly right. 2025 would be the next World Athletics and if 9.80 secs is current time for 100meters won by that Italian in 2021, I don't think 2025 would be the time. Perhaps even 100 yrs or more Usain Bolt's record would still stand.
I believe if we don't take modern new technology seriously. The record will hardly come by for many years.
@@laos85 Factors that will accelerate towards 9.50
- Running shoes Technology
- More precise timing devices
- Diet & Evolution of the human body
- Studies on science of running
- Greater population, so chances of a superhuman athlete are more.
- [Developing nations now have access to these races. In the 90s few countries could take their top athletes to this stage. Currently, a Kenyan has just broken the 10.00 barrier for the first time in the country's history. Expect more countries to field athletes ]
@tigergold5990
Bolt, Gay, Blake, Gatlin and Powell were a special generation. They could run in the 9.70's relatively frequently. And they were all caught doping except for Bolt.
But Maurice Green ran a 9.79 as far back as 1999. He would've won this year's olympics with that time. The best times for 2019, 2020 and 2021 (so far) were 9.76, 9.86 and 9.77, respectively.
The fastest sprinters in the world have been hovering around 9.80 for 30 years. There's been only 45 sprints below 9.80 and 12 were run by Bolt. Under 9.7, it's 3 out of 5.
That's how good he was. He ran the fastest #1 and #2 times ever by a mile. Bolt's 9.58 was simply insane, an oddity in every sense, and completely off the charts. He was over a tenth faster than anyone has ever been. I can't overstate how big of a gap that is at the elite level. It's like lapping the entire field in Formula 1. Gay ran an absolutely blistering 9.71 in that race, and still lost by a meter and a half. If Bolt didn't exist, that 9.71 would have been the fastest time in history at the time. He did improve to 9.69 later on, and Blake tied that. And that was the best anyone could manage.
Bolt was a monster. Nobody is getting anywhere near his record for a long, long time, if ever. Based on the times athletes are running today, there is no indication whatsoever that sprinters will be half a second faster within 5 years. At all. Sprinters have barely gained a few hundredths in 30 years, with Bolt being the sole exception.
The one person can done this and break this record ✝️
**runs 9.26 seconds**
Nani
@@removed629 yup
9.58
@@removed629 I love you
@@zailanishohor9887 ma g
By this logic Mike Powell's long jump record should have been broken long ago. It's been 29 years now and since then no one has been able to jump 8.95m or beyond.
Actually that isnt even true. 5 times in that exact event he and carl lewis jumped 8.90m or longer with "an illegal wind". I'm willing to bet if you include non legal jumps 8.95 has been beaten
Elite athletes are not interested in the long jump as their main event
Even more logic is that bob beamon still holds the olympic record. Its only been 62 years
I remember watching the Long Jump battle that night between Mike Powell and Carl Lewis, one of the greatest moments in history I think.
@@212mochaman lewis jumped only at 8.91 m lol!
If the human physical limit is truly 9.27 seconds, then it would be approached asymptotically. That is, by a curved line that would get closer and closer to that limiting number. That would push out the year when it could be approached well into the 2100s and maybe the 2200s. It's going to take longer and longer to have such a unique athlete that is capable of running that fast. The next Bolt might be 30 years in the future, for example. He would 'merely' break 9.58. And then there would have to be another Bolt after him and so on as the record drops ever more slowly.
The nerd is right, surely progress will become exponentially slower.
@@Fm-rh7dg 😭😭😭
@@Fm-rh7dg lol
@@Fm-rh7dg well it shows no signs of that from the graphs shown in this video
@@Alec-rh7dm it’s not rocket science dickhead, it is hard to get something “perfect”
It’s gonna be none other than Usain Bolts kid himself 🙌🏼
*With Mix of Right Female Married in Genes.*
if he gets the genetics, same hunger and same or better training possible lol
Usain Bolt would run 9.4 seconds if he had a perfect race. He said it himself.
Yeah if Tyson gay had a perfect race he'd run about a 9.5
Yes
@@10xyourlife65 Reckon he’d do it if he wasn’t so, um, gay 😋
Or if he didn't celebrate before the he reached finish line. That day he did 9.58
@@marciaswearing1001 I have to see this race once again
I think an inverse logarithmic graph would be more suitable for something like this. Point being, the closer to that theoretical 9.27 runners get, the slower progress will be due to so many different factors having to be perfected.
Really. You use a linear graph? This analysis is so wrong. You are saying eventually we will get to 0 secs lol
We might invent teleportation by then so maybe...
Why is it not possible you know muscles can easily be modified with pain and training so we can reach there without any genetical modification or surgery. LOL when I say training I meant super harsh training ok
It’s line of best fit based on statistical data entries that contain facts . Not a physics equation. The prediction 2050 for human evolution in track and field is based on a trend already recorded as facts in history. Stop being so dumb bro . 0 seconds is improbable .
@@shaneclaridge8888 technically the line of best fit should be asymptotic and therefore cannot be a straight line. He should've represented the data on a logarithmic graph and plotted a curved line of best fit. But what do I know? I failed my engineering degree.
Tom Nicholls well idk bro to art students we sound like rocket scientists so that’s all that matters these days. Give your degree another go what you got to lose 😁
That graph, with that sharp drop to the most recent record shows just how much af a freak of nature Usain Bolt is.
Theres gonna be a true legend in the making breaking all 100, 200 and 400 WR in a single tournament. Wait for it.
Yep - another genetic freak will always eventually arise and shatter these (and all other) records. And that's what all of these top athletes are. They are genetic freaks compared to the average human.
Stone gill 2027
His name is cm punk😅
I will I’ve been training hard every day and ima be a boxer
I will I’ve been training hard every day and ima be a boxer
ive just looked at the 2 best 100m runs from usain in the 100m, in the Beijing race at 7.9 seconds he begins to break his form and celebrate he finishes the race with exactly 7 strides, on his world record run, with exactly 7.9 seconds he completes the race with only 6 strides. i think its fair to say if in beijing he continued to power through the final 15-30 metres, he wouldve achieved low 9.5 or even high 9.4... incredible.
Same exact thing I saw. In 2008, had he kept his discipline he was mid 9.5 Easy, which would have completely shattered Human concept. But Usain is human, and he lost himself in the moment because he made Olympian sprinters look collegiate. For me, I think 6'3" quick twitch muscles, loose but truly disciplined may approach this 9.27.
@@julianandygumbsVI dont get me wrong the showboat was legendary... but bolt should be 9.5 or 9.4... i think someone his height and size will come along some time and be 9.3/9.4 and achieve a perfect race. only thing i dont like is that i think if bolt hit 9.4 his time wouldve stood for maybe 50-100 years
I believe it is not impossible to finish a 100m sprint in 9.27 seconds but the athletes's career wouldn't be that long. Bolt retired much earlier compared to other record holders is a very good example to prove my point. Muscle strains within sub 10 is already bad enough, imagine running within 9.8 to 9.7 for most of the times. For Bolt case, he sometimes hit 9.6. So yeah, teachnique and all other good stuff can improve the sprint. But can a human body really keep up with the thing you want it to do?
I think their is possibility to improove the record.
Sprinters can’t keep their max speed for long but many lack of core sheating if you compare to calisthenic athletes so I feel they could improove
I think Bolt retired earlier because he was not at his peak anymore, and he wanted to leave this sport as a winner, he could have continued but he had everything to lose. Just my opinion
I think Bolt himself could have finished his sprints a lot faster. He often used to just jog the last few meters and still break records!
My prediction is 8.94 seconds in the North Korean Olympics in 4 years
9.58 sec
The absolute quickest time will be more like 9.4 to 9.45 seconds. Usain Bolt was so close to breaking the bones in his feet when he achieved 9.58. The human limit before bone breakage is so close now. We simply cannot generate anymore force than 1100 pounds or our bones simply crush under that force. If we give a runner like Bolt an absolutely perfect start he could do sub 9.48 but not a whole lot better. We are basically at the human limit for speed right now.
I think you are right ! with a perfect start Bolt could do around 9.45 !
Where have you seing that bolt was close from breaking his bones? Never heard of that
bolts running technique was really bad, he wasted too much energy in the beginning which caused him to be much slower in the end and compared to gatlin it looks like hes running for the first time in his life, but his effort and talent is unmatched
How much more time could Bolt have shaved off the 9.58 if he didn't let up at end of races?
@@jmf7897 he didn't do that when he ran 9.58.
I like his analysis. Good attempt at predicting the expected time it will take to run the theoretical 9.27. However, in 1988 after Ben Johnson ran 9.79, someone did a similar study and determined the fastest a human can run is 9.58. Well....we are there now. The current WR is 9.58 and it could have been lower if Bolt ran through the line when he ran that 9.69 in 2008.
I also want to know what Usain could have run in Beijing 2008 if he didn't slow down. 9.45-9.50?
9.62 if he didn't slow down because he only slowed down in the last 10-meter split which he ran by 0.90. In the 80-90m he ran in 0.83 which is what he would've done in the 90-100 if he continued running if he didn't dance at the end. The improvement would've been 7 hundreds of a second. If you don't believe me look at 2008 vs 2009 bolt 10 meter splits on google images and you will see. The big question is whatBolt would've run at Berlin in 2009 if he had a great 0-10m. His best 0-10 was in Beijing but his Reaction Time was bad so if you combine the 2009 reaction time and the 2008 0-10m you get an improvement of 0.06 which would get 9.58 to 9.52. Let's not stop there, in2012 London (9.63) Bolt had a bad start and had to compensate for that by running a faster second half than the 2009 race. The improvement was 0.02 in the 70-90m if you also add that Bolt could've done 9.50 based on what we have seen so far from him. Now on top of that, he could still improve his Reaction Time since in Berlin it was 0.146. World-class sprinters reaction Times are around 0.120 which would improve his time by around 0.02. So far we are down to 9.48 And on top of that still, Michael Johnson said Bolt's drive phase 0-20m in both 2008 and 2009 is BS which could make a slight improvement of several hundreds of a second which is why Johnson and Bolt both guessed that he could probably hit 9.4
@@stefan24georgiev Very insightful comment. You certainly know the sport well.
I don't know when anyone will run 9 .27 but on March, 16, 2032 a 26 year old American named Dwight Levant will break Usain Bolts record with a time of 9 .51. Bolts held the record for 23 years.
Sounds legit
arealmench is dat ur own name
Now he is 14 yrs of age LOL
Why is EVERYONE who says these things 14? They're like I'm 14 and I' can run 100m in 2 seconds or something.
Merica can't do shit.
Easy! I can run 100 meters in like 5 minutes without a sweat.
That's walking mate:)
@@talhafaruqui3187 slower
Oh my goodness that’s gotta beat the world record
I run in 14.92
@@tinekevisser4730 how old are u
I actually think it can lower. But to run the absolute fastest possible time, we will need essentially compete perfection. You'll need the precise anatomical structure that is perfect for sprint speed. You'll also need someone with genes that are perfectly specialised for sprint speed, such as an ideal balance of muscle fibre types, ACTN-3 gene etc. This would need to be combined with the most effective possible training. I'm a sprint coach and I have dealt with many elite athletes and top level coaches, and I can tell you that none of us have training methods that are perfect as such. Having said that, the training methods used are the best techniques known and available. But obviously the best we have does not mean the absolute best, most ideal training programme possible. The ideal genes and perfect anatomy not only needs to exist. That person needs to first of all be interested in sprinting and then identified and placed into the right circumstances to compete against other elite athletes. I guarantee you that there are people living right now that are a good deal more suited to sprinting than even Bolt. It's just that they're not training for it and have not entertained the idea of racing. A lot of factors need to align to make it all fall into place. Then of course, looking at trends, we need to consider the law of diminishing returns, which is more or less infinite. To the point where improvements on records take a compounded duration to occur. Let's say we do find another Bolt in 15 years. Perhaps he will break the record, most likely by a very tiny margin. Let's say 9.55 seconds. The likelihood of another Bolt after him takes longer to find because he needs to be ever so slightly better than the last guy, not just the same. Another 3 or 4 Bolts down the line could be 150 years just to break into the 9.4 range. Chipping that down to 9.3 and then 9.2 would take even longer. And by that time will people even be training to sprint like that? Gene editing and technology is going to make it less appealing to just play the genetic and coaching lottery.
Bolt, if he had run the perfect race, with a really good start, and continuing to run right through the line, could perhaps have run 9.37 sec for the 100m, but he never really had to perfect his technique and experience perfect conditions.
He made me sick with that celebrating before the end.
@@michaelhorsey375 no one cares!
@@vincentbriggs0682 i care
I think if he finished hard thru the line he would definitely be under 9.5
Usain's Charisma played a very important role. Otherwise the media would have shown him like a boy from poor family breaks world record. Many champions lost their recognition just because media portrayed them in a patronizing way. But Usain was smart to get the politics and marketed himself to become a brand.
This is aint sun tv 🤣
Your an idiot
Jamaica 🇯🇲 has loads of Olympic gold medalists, usain is not the first and he ain’t the last. Even the Jamaican women have medals
@@MrHonestRaju ahahaha...
Very interesting. I have a question. Why the fact of being from a poor family would make you lose your recognition? I just can't connect the dots
same😢
I can run 9.08 seconds and I’m only 2 years old 💪🏻
Edit: I had no idea so many people would take this comment seriously lmao
Edit 2: It’s a joke, guys.
Nice
that's nothing I'm 1 month old and can run a 2.47 100 m
@@CS3____420 Good
I love your confident. Keep it up kid!
This is a lie lol😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Omg, don’t be so naive!!! There has been mathematical explanations. Track, shoes, etc. Made the biggest difference. NOT some mythical human evolution over 50 years
Actually yes there has been evolution in human workout and understanding how fast twitch muscles work. The evolution you're thinking of is out of context. And the PEDs having gotten better and will continue to do so
@@792bnz I think he meant bodily evolution not how we train our bodies
Because of social media, athletes are getting opportunities that weren't possible decades ago, eg, endorsements, scholarships.
It's odd how much slower the current generation of sprinters are, the gold medalist Noah Lyles this year won by thousandths of a second and his best recorded time wouldn't even hang with Asafa's best recorded time, let alone Justin Gatlin, Tyson Gay, Yohan Blake, and Usain Bolts
I remember when bolt started jogging at the last 20-25 meter and still got a time of 9:78 I think imagine how fast his time would’ve been if he kept sprinting
should def be an exponential fit, not linear lol, men will run 100m in 0s so in a few centuries
Thank you. The world is non-linear and this sort of 1st-order thinking is a wild and unrealistic assumption.
By year 10,000 A.D. humans will run at the speed of light, runner then can go back in time
It's crazy to know that one day an athlete will run so fast that there record will never ever be broken forever.
Maybe humans will go extinct before we hit the asymptote :)
Height and weight predictions of the runner in 2050 would be interesting.
There won't be sprinters in 2050 we'll just about be extinct. They'll barely be any humans left.
@@man_of_lawlessness incorrect.
@@MichaelTaphouse 😂 look around man the domino affect has been going on since the 70s. Also We're 💯 going to experience a magnetic excursion before 2050.
@@MichaelTaphouse When the (overdue) excursion happens like it has every 12,000 years its going to end society as we know it.
Leg length of 50m and weight of 50kg would yield a new 100M World Record.
The problem with graphs can be expressed by looking at the men's pole vault, long jump, high jump, and shot put world records: In roughly thirty years there have been only small improvements, if at all, in these (and other) world records. The first of the pair of 8 foot high jumps the great Javier Sotomayer achieved was all the way back in 1989. Serge Bubkas first pole vaulted 20 feet in 1991 and would add about 2 inches to both the indoor and outdoor records in the next few years. Both records have been exceeded by about an inch each. Randy Barnes shot put record of 75' 9" from 1990 still stands. In the 53 years since Bob Beamons freakish jump at the 68' Olympics the world record has increased by 1 and a half inches! I doubt a graph would have anticipated such near stagnation in these events.
Or, going in the other direction, someone like Usain Bolt. His records must have been quite ahead of their time, according to the graphs.....
Can't wait to see a linear graph for a 2:59 1500 meter
Bolt's best theoretical time is about 9.4. It would take a genetic freak to get under 9.4. Tall, very long legs, muscular, absolute monster.
Bolt ran a 9.58 and literally held that speed for the 200 to set the wr at 19.19! If he wasn’t trotting across the finish line smiling he definitely could’ve ran 9.4! But it wouldn’t have been as epic!!
I almost hope we end up being surprised someday and someone comes along and runs an 8.99 just because it feels like Bolts record won't be broken for a while. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing either, just might be cool to see history happen again. It would be hard for anybody to match the type of icon Bolt was though, nobody could dislike Usain Bolt
Obviously, there is a limit as you point out. But I don’t think a linear model works for the prediction here. It might be something like T=T_limit+exp(-Coefficient* Year). Before Bolt, there was a slow decline of the duration from 9.79 to 9.74, which took 8 years( from 9.83 to 9.79 it took 11 years). But then there was Bolt, it took him only 2 years to drop the duration from 9.74 to 9.58. Usain Bolt is a Genius in sprinting of the century, which is an outlier of any model(and of course including my suggested one). The arrival of such a genius to the world is unpredictable just like Newton and Einstein for physics. It’s quite likely that the 9.58 won’t be broken for a very very long time. No sprinter is even close to 9.69 these days. We have to be very very luck to witness breaking of the 9.58 record within our lifetime.
The best comment here
次に新記録が出たとしても、9.55くらいだろうね
しかも後20年は出ないだろな
A straight line was used, but I think a line with decreasing slope approaching 9.2 in 100 years would have been better.
I once ran the 100m and a funny thing happened. Even though there was an unmeasured headwind, I did it unofficially in 9:19 and I remarked because I thought this could never be possible. I also remarked because of the fact that I did 9:19 for the 100m and Bolt did 19:19 for the 200m.
I work out in the mornings, take a long break … and then work out again in the evenings so I absolutely remarked when the video recording showed that at the moment that I broke Usain's record the time was stamped at exactly 9:19am and when I repeated this in the evening the time was stamped at 19:19. I had goosebumps with what was going on.
This was more than incidence. This was CO-incidence!!! But after remarking so many times I asked Myself: "Myself, why do I remark so much?". BTW: "Myself" is the name of my neighbour's dog. Myself doesn't speak English, so he didn't answer. But I thought that all this remarking meant I was perhaps a remarkable being. I know this makes me sound like a dog. I sometimes sound like Myself.
Back to the 110m sprints. We double checked the timings and fearing something must be wrong. I then ran the 100m another 3 times in a row just to make sure. I clocked exactly 9:19 in every instance. I am 22 years old at the moment. It wasn't long before my name was in all the headlines. Another funny thing is my name. My actual name is made up of two names that have to be repeated 3 times in order to hear the name clearly. Read this out fast: "My actual name is Akchewal Nayem, Akchewal Nayem, Akchewal Nayem". When I run fast my mother says: "Aahh ... that's my little actual name"
You can read my book about this experience. The book’s has a slightly long title. In fact the title is so long that the book’s title has a name. The book title's name is also quite long: The book’s title's name is: "THE YOUNG MAN FROM DUDUZANA WHO RAN FASTER THAN USAIN BOLT , WHO'S NAME IS AKCHEWAL NAYIM ... NOT SAYING USAIN'S NAME IS AKCHEWEL … NO AKCHUWEL IS THE NAME OF THE NEW FASTEST MAN ON THE PLANET"
Officials from all over the world flew in after reading my book. They just could not believe this stuff. The all gathered, met and their opening remark was: “We have to investigate how in the world it could be possible for a book to have a title that is so long, that the title has a name, and the name of the title has a nickname ... and all these names together make up most of the book”
The book was four hundred pages long, and the nickname of the title was nick-nayim which was quite short, and the actual name of the title was a paragraph long, but the actual title was 388 pages. That left a mere 2 pages of reading if you take into account all the pictures in the book. The pictures of me, with lots of flab around my short body made everyone suspicious about my claim to be taller than Usain Bolt. But I was cleared of lying when they discovered I had innocently used an under-calibrated ruler to measure my height. This led to further investigations which concluded that on the other end of the scale … I had used an over-calibrated tape measure to measure out the 100m on the track. In 9:19 seconds I was actually running 57 metres, which of course was only 100m if you rounded up to the nearest 100 meters. Eish!!!
But I have now corrected the length of the track to exactly 100m. But here’s the real twist in this story: The mind is a funny thing. I set out with new determination to un-embarrass myself regarding this fiasco. As hard as it is to believe, my times on this real 100m track are now back to 9:19. All that remains is to officially calibrate the new solar powered clocks that I personally built to time these sprints. Especially since I only use them in the evenings.
You can subscribe to this comment: Guys ... if you like this comment then please like it, comment on it and subscribe to it. Usain may be tall but he’s “tall” is nothing compared to my stories.
I can't believe I read all this...
Thanks for the laugh 😂👌
(Pls say hello to Myself; they sound like a cute fella)
Noice
I bet in 5 years this "prediction" will be beaten.
Come check back on this comment in 5 years to say I was right.
Come back to this comment and see if it will be me. Ill personally give you a 10000€ if you send me this.
Well then, looks like you got some serious training to do then. I wish you luck my friend.
Just came back from the future to update you that you are right.
Rok Didakovic u need to be black
He name is cm punk , remember dis name
It should be a curve not a straight line. According to this graph the WR would be gone under 9s in another 100 years and you have mentioned that it is humanly impossible,
The trend was already non linear by early 2000. If you fix the regression line to begin to flatten post 1960s then it would predict that nobody will touch 9.3 prior to 2100.
0:28 He currently holds the 100 meter dash in fu#$- 9.58 secs
Uum ok
Remember that Bolt’s record was achieved on a slow surface track. I would’ve liked to watch him run on a faster track and perhaps break 9.55
If Bolt’s record is broken, I would attribute some of the speed to that. Regardless, I don’t believe 9.27 is attainable. I’ll likely be dead by 2050. But I will still admire Bolt’s ability from heaven.
It probably will move asymptotically towards 9.27 not linearly. Times will decrease by smaller and smaller increments until eventually it is reached.
Probably
You mean decrease
@@huntrichardson oh yeah whoops
The perfect human being would manage to go even lower. That is, a runner with perfect dedication, perfect training intelligence, perfect sprinting genetics and who joins a sprinting environment at the earliest age where crucial sprinting adaptations can be made. Give this ‘machine’ of a human being the perfect race where he is in peak shape and has competition that drives him further, and surely he must be able to run close to 9 flat. But the probability of that happening is EXTREMELY low, so low that it might as well be zero.
I wonder who will be that Jamaican to break the records😁😁
@ITBPPITW O +1
Lightning Bold!!
It took 100 years for an anomaly like Bolt to come by to run 9.58 because his height, stride length and power variables were beyond anyone whoever came by before. (41 steps vs 44) He's a physical accident or perfection (however you look at it) No one at the top level has ever been that tall. The fact that no one else has gone below 9.69 and that relevant increases in technology at this point will be hard to come by, and the fact that most races finish at what? 9.8 , 9.9 amongst the best now, all make even 9.4 very hard to imagine. It would take a Bolt type specimen, don't think a shorter guy will ever run 9.5..maybe I'm wrong. Blake's 9.69 looks like almost as perfect a run as you could imagine for a non- total anomaly sprinter.
Always thought that Bolt at his peak could have gone under 9,50, maybe even 9,40 if he had a perfect perfect start
Or if he had not celebrated 10 meters before he crossed the line when he broke the record in Berlin. 9.58 could have been less.....I just watched it and he held out his hands and started slapping his chest
That was his 2008 bejing world record . That wasn't the berlin 2009 world record.
9.4 unlikely but he could have scraped a 9.5 on a perfect run
Usain bolts kids in 30 years 🏃🏿💁
According to Michael Johnson, if Bolt had improved his running mechanics, the record could have been lowered to 9.4. I agree. In the future, historians will mention Bolt's poor mechanics and what could have been.
Michael Johnson was known for running with very strange posture also.
I think human physical limit for 100m dash is between 9.45 - 9.50. Human brute force should be able to achieve 9.50; however, anything below 9.50 can be achieved by human brute force aided by technology, training regimen and medicine (I don't mean performance enhancement drugs here). For example, if Usain Bolt were to be at his peak and ran on the tracks of Tokyo 2020 Olympics where they had improved tracks, he could have made between 9.50 and 9.55. I don't see humans making under 9.40 in the 100 m dash.
4:23 I like how you say that time will leave Usain Bolts world record in the dust
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Top 50 Greatest Sprinters of all time Male and Female (Ranked)
1. Bolt
2. Johnson
3. Fraser-Pryce
4. Lewis
5. Felix
6. Greene
7. Perec
8. Campbell-Brown
9. Gatlin
10. Thompson-Herah
11. Meritt
12. Wariner
13. Van Nierkerk, Ohuruogu, Freeman
16. Cuthbert
17. Devers
18. Ottey
19. Torrence
20. Szewinska
21. Miller-Uibo
22. Kirani James
23. Schippers
24. Stecher
25. Flo-Jo
26. Linford Christie, Richards-Ross
28. Calvin Smith
29. Borzov
30. Bryzgina
31. Donovan Bailey, Gardiner, Koch
34. Gay, Block
36. Jesse Owens, Rudolph, Joe Morrow, Tolan, Craig, Hahn, Tyus, Wockel, Brisco-Hooks, Marjorie Jackson, Blankers-Koen
47. Kenteris
48. Marion Jones, Krabbe, Moller
What do you think of my ranking? Any notable sprinters you think I forgot to mention? Any sprinter that shouldn't be on the list?
The list is purely based on accomplishment and results. It doesn't take into account what you did outside the sport
If Bolt hadn't slowed down to showboat in his first 100m world record run, he would have easily broken the 9.40-second mark. I agree with your point. A 19.27-second time could be run in 2050 or thereabouts.
One day there will be some legend who can beat the 100m 200m and 400m and will just be insane thrashing everyone in every race and no one will be able to touch them
Usain Bolt is 6ft. 4 inches, so someone about 7ft plus, whose stride is as fast or faster would probably go sub 8 seconds. Sports tend to get larger competitors when the records and milestones are broken.
Cool video TSP, but 2 issues come to mind. #1, What is your name? Most people who have channels start with ‘Hey folks, Jim here...” #2, more importantly, you shouldn’t fit the data with a line, or linear, fit. Why? Because you said that times will never get below 9.27 seconds, then proceed to fit the data with a straight line that will eventually drop below 9.27s, so obviously that’s not a good fitting curve shape to use. My first guess would be to fit using an exponentially decreasing function with an added constant of 9.27s. That would be y=9.27+a*exp(-b*x), where a and b are the fitting constants. Note that in this function as x goes to infinity, the exponential term goes to 0 and y=9.27s, exactly what you want. Try it... BTW GO PARKVIEW, I Live nearby in Lilburn!!
A machine cannot be 100% efficient likewise humans, no one can run 100 meters in 9.27second till the end of the world.
Can't wait till the record becomes 8 seconds
Can't wait till the 0.01 Seconds to begin 😑
Can't wait till the record is 0.00001 secs 👽👾
LION OF RUNNING.
8x World Olimpiade Gold.
World Record Fastest 100 m, 200 m, 4x 100 m.
Usain Bolt.
Great Christian Jamaica.
I wonder who will reach the 9.27s 🤔
But I know that someone will break 9.58s 🙄
Usain Bolt is my inspiration. He's my hero. All because of how fast he is. Big fan of him.
Same here bro
40 mph human imagine run 100m
Scientist say the physical limit before your muscles would tear and bones shatter would be 40mph
@@barbecuesquirrel2324 i dont disagree but scientists also said reaching here, where we already are was supposed to happen in next century or so....
I think he's already here, he ran for Liberia in the 200m in the Olympics, and he was (literally) born on 9-11.
Why is it that cheetahs never train and still run like that. What if humans trained a cheetah like Usian bolt.
Nah better train them like Ben Johnson. Minus the drugs ofc
Let’s lay that ground work bud , message me
The same question can be asked for humans. How do my classmate run SO MUCH faster than me even though he doesn’t even workout or anything? The answer is genetics. He’s blessed by being fast muscle fibres dominant. He may beat me in 100m, 200m and 400m race, but in 800m and anything above I can beat him like nothing.
@@manofgod7622 Jesus
1. Cheetahs are cheetahs, not humans.
2. Cheetahs 'train' from the day they learn to run til basically the day they die. Their program is the 'catch your extremely fast food or die' protocol.
9.58 will be around for a while, beyond 2035.
Women's 100m record, 10.49 sec, was set in 1988 (33 years) .
With this logic. 8.96 will happens in 2080? Ok
No? Because 9.27 is the limit, where the human body could never physically be capable of going faster
@@cornishalps9870 You sound like a 12 year old expert kid who play Minecraft all day
@@laos85 sounds personal
@@laos85 but yes, that is how I spent my days as a 12 year old many years ago
Actually in the last 50 years the 100 metre record has dropped by 0.41 seconds ( 9.99 - 9.58 = 0.41 )
i can run even faster when a dog chase me
It's feasible. All it would take is someone who is a good starter and a good finisher. Bolt was a good finisher but a slow starter.
30 years from now, nobody will remember you predicted it
thats the point
@@jacobmarley2417 everyone will remember this
Every time this guy says anything with a “P-“ it breaks my phone speakers
Someday, humanity might sprint 100 meters in 1 seconds lol like anime
I think athletics is more psychological than people typically realize. Witness the fact that once Roger Bannister broke 4 minutes, lots of other people did it after he did. Performance is in the body, but it’s also in the mind. People can do things once other people show that it can be done. So the key for me is who can BELIEVE that this 9.27 time is really possible. Of course everything has to be in place for such absolute peak performance. The psychological is just one aspect. But it’s an important aspect.
I'm 14 year old now my 100 meter timing is 13.15 . When I'm 23 I will break usain record
im 13 and my time is 12.56 so zip it
AJ Piazza you realize just because you’re faster than someone right now doesn’t mean you’re gonna be faster than them as you get older?
My name is Abhishek . Remember this name because this name is going to create world record
@@namikat6068 My name is Abhishek . Remember this name because this name is going to create world record
Keep the spirit
When Bolt made his record he started to celebrate ten meter before the line, if he would been kept his head ahead and extended his body, easilly he would be 9.40
Another good video. I have read that the limit is 9:40. Your analysis, however, makes me think more about it. Usain Bolt's record is very touchable, and reachable.
I have read an article which predicts that all the track and field world records will be broken in the next couple decades. It is very hard to believe, but, there are always new ways to break records.
The question is " what is the limit?" We do not really know. Yet, Scientific Research does not even provide the answer or determine the limit. So, is it 9:27 or even faster or maybe slower than than 4:40? The "time to be broken" can be predicted if we know the answer.
The problem with Scientific Research in this matter is that there is no set in stone or fact about that.. it is the approximate game.
Bander Always appreciate your input! I’m skeptical about the 9.27. I mean, that’s just insanely fast. Also, I’m not wholly convinced that foot-to-ground contact is the only remaining variable to look at here. I’m sure that 100 years ago nobody would have predicted that a 9.58 would be possible. However it happened!
I saw an analysis of what Bolt would have run on the night he ran 9.58 if conditions have been perfect: 2.0 m following wind, altitude, etc. the answer, by golly, was 9.27 seconds.
Next generation won't want to run lol
Bolts 9.58 may be beaten in 2028. Everyone sleeping on Gout Gout lol
Personally I think the record is 90% never going to be broken.
Alejandro Torres While I think Bolt’s 9.58 is incredible, and it is, I fully expect that someone will break it one day. Yes, Bolt is an absolute beast, the likes of which we’ve never seen before, but considering there’s a theoretical infinite amount of time to pass, I’m sure someone will challenge it. As far as running a 9.27 goes, I’m much more skeptical.
@@TotalRunningProductions strong challenge... 9:27 I love it... One day it just happen... Unknown train well... and beat the record.. & your expectation comes true... keep watch it...
According to this the guy who will break the record isn't even born yet. Even if he was he would break the world record on the year of his retirement at the age of 30.
That's right, that's been said by others , that very likely this person has not been born yet. He might be 2 generations out.
Hey Steve. We all know why Secretariat had an enlarged heart, the same reason Lance Armstrong did!
As a physicist and mathematician im just here to say that just because you can put a straight line through any set of data does not mean you should or it has any correlation.
This is happen in 2024 Olympics and crack the science record whose name is Ayush Rathore 😊
Ayush Rathour You wish lol 😂
Good luck catching up my dust bro
Ayush Rathore Good luck
Hurmm
People don't understand every world record are a one hundred years athlete that goes beyond human limits. He's just the lucky guy that was born with genies nobody else has and another person like or better than him doesn't happen in just 30 years. But with how technology's heading that time is simply just a normal man and nothing special which in your thinking can happen around 30-50 years.
I aint think anyone gonna break bolts time it’s just to fast if they do it’s gonna take a long time
"It's the shoes, stupid!" _____Fast fast Clinton
I will run it
Keep that belief 👍
LET'S GOOO
I would say for the 100m we are at the point where an analysis such as this should incorporate input from a biomechanics expert. Such an individual might, for example, set a “pure technology” asymptote (e.g. the minimum time a non-human sprint robot with “bionic” legs would require to cover the distance), and then apply a human performance factor (a metric actually used in robotics engineering) greater than 1.0 to this to approximate a realistic non-augmented human capability. The point is, even bionic legs will never be able to complete a 100m in a second, or likely even 3 or 4 seconds, reinforcing the point made by others that the prediction line must be asymptotic, not linear. As an example - and this is merely a lay person’s guess for illustration purposes - let us say the bionic legs could achieve a 100m time of 5 seconds. Apply a human performance factor of 1.7 commonly used in robotics engineering to represent human performance, and the result is a projected minimum achievable 100m time of 5 x 1.7 = 8.5 seconds. And this is the asymptote, which means you would never actually achieve 8.5, only come very (very very very!) close to it. And The only thing this analysis does not model is how long it would take to get very very close to 8.5 seconds. Maybe 10 years. Maybe 50 years. But what is certain a non-augmented human would NEVER run less than 8.5 seconds (in this particular analysis using these particular assumptions).
With Bolt thg doping or without ?
It’s also the tech they do to make the tracks faster, footwear, training. It could fall before or after
use a bigger needle
Usain is tge fastest
Just consider. Ben Johnsen first half (50m) and Carl lewis second half (50m) -What time would that give us...???
Relay world record is 36.84. If we divide by 4, it will be 9.21 seconds for 100 m
Never knew a graph could point out this possible probability... (20-30) years not forgetting physiological adaptation!!!
If prime Bolt ran a perfect race with the maximum legal tailwind he would push 9.27 seconds right now.
no way
@@jr_guess Bolt already ran 9.58 in an Olympic final. Was it a perfect race for him? No. Did he have wind assistance? No. Did he have max legal wind assistance? No. Those two factors could definitely remove three tenths of a second.
A wind change of 0.9 - 2.0 m/s = -0.04, a reaction time of 0.155 to 0.100 = -0.06, a track like rieti = -0.07. There is simply no way bolt could take 3 entire tenths of a second. The absolute best bolt could do is a low 9.5/high 9.4
@@jr_guess I believe you. But there's also just the factor of running a perfect race after a perfect start. In his peak years he only pushed through the finish line in like 10% of his races. So he reduced his perfect race sample size by like 90%.
Fair point, I'm gonna leave you to it so yeah have a good one
I wonder how much of the improvement since the 50s was because the stop watch technology is more accurate and precise now.
The sound barrier was thought to be impossible. The 4 minute mile. 300mph in drag racing. We only need to discover the mitochondrion supercharger to make it happen.
bolts record is gonna last for decades
I’ll check back in about 30 years
Next frontier is the technology brands like Nike will put in the feet of the atletes, with shanks made of carbon fiber, and another features imported from marathon ones
In year 2025, I'm going to make new world record of 9.26 sec.
I love this. Its upon us 2022. Supreme sugar3.0 1st 40!
The only way: at the 14 year old - 10.02👍
The only way: when's he's older. - 9.27
THATS THE ONLY WAY YALL !!!!🤷♂️