Price of course. The model Y with 4680 will only come as a performance version with a hefty sticker price. It will be so expensive that only true enthusiasts will buy it.
Awesome work man! I think you might've actually cracked how Tesla is going to handle delivering Model Y from Austin w/ 4680s and Fremont w/ 2170s at the same time. Since performance is definitely much lower volume than LR AWD, and where the main benefit lies, I think they'd probably discontinue Perf at Fremont first, and deliver all performance models with 4680s. As Austin scales, they could start supplementing Fremont with LR AWD with a similar range and performance to the 2170 version.
The interesting thing that the manager at my tesla space brought up when I asked about the 4680 cells and weather to buy now or wait is that even if there was a large range increase from the cell conversion in KW, they could always just reduce the battery pack size to maintain the promised range while also increasing profit margins. But like you said, it will be a bigger change for performance rather than range and it will be interesting to see how they play with those metrics.
Great video, but the impact of less mass on the range is bigger when you not just drive with constant speed, but accelerate, brake, accelerate again, like city driving. And less mass better for the performance and lifetime of brakes and suspension. Better load capacity, better maneuverability etc.
Cracking the speed force continuum!! Am I the only one that thinks this guy should be working for Tesla crunching numbers for them?? Unreal man great work. I’m impressed.
Great video and explanation. I hope you’re right as my LR Y is sched for delivery to the east coast in June. I suspect they will reduce the cells/ size of the pack to lower cost and more closely match current Y pack with the 2170’s. That will increase profits and more battery yield to build more vehicles.
I think your forecast on reducing the battery pack size and cost to Tesla is more likely to be correct rather than increasing the range. I also don't think Tesla will pass on any of the cost savings to the buyers. We have a Model Y LR due in July.
I can see them starting out the first couple of new model years with the new 4680 structural pack not increasing in size but resulting in a much lighter CUV package over the first gen Model Y but still with around 340-350 miles of rated range and quicker times which is excellent. Then in a few years for a refresh they could offer more cells for more range with a little more weight put back in or if they continue to improve on the electrode design of the 4680 to get even more energy density they can essentially keep the same weight with more range.
There might only be a small range gain on flat ground, since the aerodynamics doesn't change, but 200kg less weight might mean a substantial range gain if you live in mountainous terrain.
Another likely scenario as others mentioned, offer 4680 for performance only, and Fremont produce 2170 LR. Then as they scale up, LR is also 4680 and now they have a base variant of model Y which comes with 2170, and then the LR and Performance both comes with 4680 until 2170 can be replaced completely.
Just a guess but Fremont Long Range Y's get bumped down to Standard Range, Fremont Y Performance bumped down to Long Range. Texas Y's become Performance versions until Fremont is switched over to 4680.
Bring back the Standard Range option and upgrading the other two, at face values could solve the problems. I’m waiting for the new 4680s for the longer lasting battery and structural improvements (I plan on keeping this a very very long time).
Great analysis. Should also improve handling and reduce tire wear. Would prefer they do a hybrid of reducing weight by 250 lbs and adding more cells. Plus we not sure weight reduction from front and rear single piece castings
Yes this is an important point overlooked by the video. The 4680s are 14% taller than 2170s (as the pack is now also the floor, the batteries have 1cm more room in height while still leaving everything unchanged to make both structures interchangeable), as the area of the car remains unchanged, you could expect 14% more energy density if they wanted to fill the room.
Who knows which Model Y you will get when ordering now? I keep seeing my delivery date slip further and further into the future (now at 10-11 months). If I have to wait 11 months and end up with a 2170 based car, I’m going to be pretty unhappy. Do you think there will be a cut date when 2170 are no longer used? If I were manufacturing, I would want to cut costs and weight as quickly as possible. Is that possible within one year? I suppose 2170’s could all go to Long Range and 4680 to Performance regardless of car model.
Depends on where you live. Austin will supply the US east coast with next-gen vehicles starting in March. I am guessing that Freemont retools in Q1 2023. You could always schedule your delivery to a friend or relative's address on the east coast if necessary ;)
I saw where the payload capacity in the Y increased my 180lbs ish. This may be all the weight the car is losing. I think there will be a lot of competition this year with electric cars especially form China. They may be able to just leave their pricing also and still have high sales. Nothing available is close to this performance for price. Maybe the new EV6 gt with 576hp but I bet production numbers will be trash. Which means price gouging if you want one.
Great video. 👍 My question is, if order a model Y performance now (living in North East) will I get the new 4680 batteries 🔋. The estimated delivery right now is March 2022, so I don’t see that happening, even with a LR expected delivery August 2022. Tesla delivers performance models first, but maybe the LR will have the 4680 since the delivery dates are far apart. Also, Elon said the cost would be cheaper with the one cast piecing & 4680 batteries. I’m really not sure how this will play out, but my guess is if you live in the North East you will get the new model Y. I just can’t wait to see if the website will update, something like model Y 2.0 🤷🏽
Great work, thank you for this great video and for taking the time to get it all together. Makes complete sense, straight to the point without the bullshit.
Hey I had a question. You mentioned that they would nerf the cars with the new cells because they will be superior. Are you saying once Tesla can produce the new cells everywhere, only then they will un-nerf the cars so they can operate at their full potential?
Contrary to your 400+ statement, I've been reading/hearing the new 4680 batter only yields 279 mile range - much SHORTER. Is the COST the same or cheaper than the older batteries? I hate to LOSE range. Please help me understand and decide what to do re: purchasing now or waiting. Thanks.
Everyone pretty much knows about this now as far as 4680 coming out of Texas. I’m wondering if secretly they will start 4680 out of Fremont at the same time Texas gets approved. I hope so because I will be getting my Y in April and that’s about the time Austin will be ramping up. I live in the NW so my chances of getting a Y from Texas are slim.
WE have a model y with the 4680 batteries as part of our order. I have had a RN number for over 7 months. The delivery date is Jan 2023 to April 2023. Do not have a clue what the range will be I hope around 475 mile range by information around battery day and other information. Anyone have a clue?? Thanks for any ideas!!
Hey great video - understand the aero drag affects range performance more than weight BUT - As we know many drivers will do less high speed journeys. What do the numbers look like when 40 mph is used - what does the difference look like then?
Thank you for this awesome video. The new 4680 cells I believe will be better profitability (and have a vertically integrated battery supply) to further mass produce. Like you, I also believe that Tesla will keep the same range. What your video brilliantly illustrates is that Tesla can make essentially the same exact Model Y, but through software, can offer a more expensive and more profitable Performance version.
I got my delivery date next week for Y and was going to cancel it. After seeing your awesome well-prepared video, scheduled the pickup and paid all the remainder. Thank you!
Just found your article, very impressed, just hope it comes out that way as I have just ordered a MPY. Any chance of an update if you have had further thoughts, thanks
Nice analysis. Tesla can software limit the performance and accessible capacity of the 4680 pack to normalize the specs for the new model Y. Originally I think that Tesla planned to make the Giga Berlin Model Y the flagship, with the 4680 batteries, and added range and performance. But the delays in Germany, and the restrictions placed on getting European battery grants caused Tesla to rethink their plans, and make Giga Texas the star, with the 4680 powered Model Y coming out there. Another option is that Tesla could limit the pack capacity initially, so that the new 4680 Model Y has maybe a 65kWh pack, and similar range and performance as the 2170 model Y. I also like the idea of their being multiple Model Ys, with a LFP powered standard range, RWD entry model, the current dual motor, 2170 battery model, but with a price drop, the current Model Y Performance, with 2170 batteries (at a lower price) and the Model Y Plaid, with 4680 batteries, but a 100kWh pack, better acceleration, better range, and lighter weight. Giving reservation holders the option to choose the Plaid (4680+) Model Y for a few thousand more.
Good work but some comments: You use the "full" battery capacity rather than the "usable" capacity which, if changed, would improve the overall efficiency number which seemed a bit low at 80%. My other comment is that the key change here is a reduction in mass but it felt that this reduction number (for a 4680 structural battery) was the least well derived. I fully accept though that the main change is potentially improved acceleration and not range and I agree that Tesla will probably turn that down artificially to match the cars that don't use 4680.
My concern with the new Model Y structural battery pack is lower integrity of the frame because it is now made without the floor and the energy on impact will be absorbed by the battery pack itself leading to combustion.
Good info. Thank you. I ordered the YP and its coming from Fremont. When I ordered, I thought it would be coming from Austin with the 4680 structural pack and giga castings, so it was disappointing I was wrong. I could cancel and reorder in hopes it will come from Austin next time (I'm on the East Coast), but that would cost the deposit and increase in FSD (an additional $2,250 total). I suspect, the differences will actually be modest and the version from Fremont has all the other latest tech. I'm leaning toward taking the Fremont build. Any advice?
Mine's a 380XXX VIN# w Intel and Lithium Ion Battery, that's what the SA said. Waiting for him to confirm how long will it get pushed out if I decide to unmatch VIN#.
Take the car you ordered. There is always going to be a faster/better version a year or so down the road. In most of your driving there will no difference and the new car will have its own issues as Tesla works out the bugs.
Interesting perspective. It would be great to see the 3 and Y performance models come in closer to 3.0 flat, which is a great value for money with respect to performance. For a 3 performance, going from 3.3s to 3.0-2.9s is a massive difference.
*ONE PROBLEM* with your range estimation. --> IF the vehicle travels primarily in a hilly or mountainous region the range will be extended significantly. On flat land, not so much. F=ma, The acceleration due to gravity is a larger component(rolling resistance) when rolling up hill than on a flat surface. That 200kg difference can make a huge difference under the right circumstances.
I sure hope the range is better than the 21 model y long range’s current range. I’m very disappointed in mine bc I barely get 200 miles of actual range. I park it and use my 2001 rx300. So much for blowing 65k on something that doesn’t do what it’s supposed to
Don’t Skip the tab-less and chemistry battery improvements! Those bring much higher charging speed, which greatly reduces ICE advantage over EV - convenience factor.
It has to be said that the EPA testing cycle average speed for the city segment is 21.2mph and 48.4mph for the highway segment. Both are lower than your 60mph assumption so the increase in range on the EPA sticker would be higher than the 5% you calculated.
Xcellent. I feel my 2021Model Y Performance should be faster lol but it’s been my slowest Tesla in 6 years starting with a Model S P90D and 2 Model 3 P’s. Closer to 3 seconds is sweet for it imho to 60 mph . Competition is gaining fast the new BNW I450 ( sedan ev) out accelerated the Model 3 Performance recently …
Really interesting video, but I'm confused by one part of your calculations - you show the velocity SQUARED in the "Power Consumption at any speed" equation, but when you show us the numbers, you show the velocity CUBED (26.8^3) - and when I did the math myself, you are depending on the velocity number being CUBED (as your numbers show, which is different than what the formula shows) - so, why the diff? Other than that, great video!
Hey, great question! The forces equation F(v) has the velocity SQUARED. But since Power=F(v)*v you can covert the forces equation to a power equation by multiplying everything by velocity. So the velocity SQUARED in the forces equation becomes velocity CUBED in the power equation. And then you can also see the rolling resistance forces are multiplied by velocity as well in the power equation.
@@eugeniustheodidactus8890 that is all nonsense. The Model Y 2.0 will a ridiculously expensive so that only true enthusiasts will buy it. That's how Tesla will be able to sell both at the same time.
@@whynotstartusingyourbrain8726 *???* I have a next gen model y arriving from Austin this summer. It is not ridiculously expensive as it is the *same exact price* of the current model Y.
I think that initially, at least, "Performance" model Y's will come from Texas w/4680's, while standard & long range models will come from Fremont, until production capacity ramps up to the point where they can Refurb the Fremont plant and start producing the same cars at both plants. At that point Texas cars will go to the eastern US while Fremont cars will go to the west.
I canceled my order because my myp was coming from Fremont .....feb 18-28 got vin # it had 2170 batt ...I really doubt when I get the new vin it will be from Texas with the 4680 batt I’m in NY
Great video, love calculations like these. You said rolling resistance is less important as aero starting at 50mph. But I wonder how much people actually drive faster as 50mph. In the US this might be a large percentage of the drives but in a lot of other countries a large part of the road system have lower as 50mph speed limits. Furthermore think they will indeed add 30% more batteries to each car, since with a structural battery pack, it wouldn't be possible to have empty space in the pack without messing up the rigidity of it. So unless they make the cars shorter or narrower, I don't see how that would be possible.
Doesn't matter if you drive no faster than 10mph the aero is for we Americans and Germans but doesn't hurt you slow guys so it's a moot point . Also you are wrong on how the battery packs work whether they add or take away space, another moot point. It's not a generic "platform" like GMs or VWs. 🚗
What if they just call it the Model Y Plaid. I'm sure if the ask Model Y Performance reservation holders for 5-10k more they will opt to upgrade to a Plaid.
Very nice analysis. Please add one thing: the 4680 car is going to be much safer going through turns as the centrifugal force pushing you out on the tangente is much smaller. Anyone who has tried to make a fast lap on a closed circuit has experienced that a lighter car beats a more powerful car as it can aford higher speeds during turns. A more powerful car is only faster in the straight line. So having « more grip » in turns, especially fast ones is a great safety margin for the new model. Very much enjoyed your great video Cheers
His opinion is that Tesla will make the Model Y LR 4680 have the same battery capacity as the current MYLR-2170, then downgrade the performance to match the MYLR-2170. The problem I see with that is that customers getting MYLR-4680 will know that they can get a significant performance increase in the future with just a software update. So a significant number of people holding orders will still try to hold out for the 4680. It seems almost necessary to me that they will introduce some sort of price differential.
Great work!! Yesterday I received my VIN for my MYP and I was hoping for an A but I got an F in the VIN. Kinda disappointed. I was hoping for a 4680 pack not for the range but just as you eluded to, the performance increase.
Same here - Received my VIN yesterday (Feb 27) for LR Y and it's a Fremont build. Now have to decide to refuse it and roll the dice that the next VIN assigned will be Austin...
Good work. I think you are correct, Tesla will throttle down power output of the new lighter Model Y's until they all are being manufactured with the new packs, then do a software update to increase power, at a price. Just like they do already, you can purchase an enhance performance upgrade for $2k. I think that is how they will tackle this or, maybe for a short term offer more variations of Model Y with the new pack Y's at a premium price. The other benefit of a lighter vehicle is longer tire life as well.
Great video, thanks. I think they might try to find a middle ground solution by both increasing range a bit more (say about 10%) and reducing weight a bit less (say about 50-100 kg)
Excellent breakdown except one factor you are not really discussing. Most people spend half the time in city driving. In the city, constant stop & go, stop & go plays a part on range. That difference of 500 lbs. can make a difference at the end of your charge when overcoming this inertia. Once moving, yes, aerodynamics play the larger role. Most of us know that the 4680 is really just an incremental increase in range but of course, the cost of production is less, the volume of batteries produced (KW power per hour) is drastically increased and adding everything up means a great step in the right direction. I haven't even mentioned the benefits of the tab-less design and much better the actual cell charges and delivers its power. I think, in the real world, Musk can, for the same MSRP, slightly reduce the size of the battery while slightly increasing range, reduce manufacturing costs and help its performance all at once.
Just like ICE cars have different engine sizes obviously structural pack weight savings allow for more batteries , performance & range so all 4680 models will be performance + range versions while older LFB will be economy models ! 4680 likely will be 100 KW & 20-25% range increase with added performance specs !
Thanks for information, my delivery at June this summer, I have to make sure my model y from Texas with 4680 batteries otherwise I have to postpone again
For a model 3 LR/P I would say the cost and weight savings of the 4680 is a no-brainer. For a model Y LR, the lower weight may reduce the ride quality, which is the biggest complaint people have. Heavier cars ride better. For a model YP, the reduced weight itself will improve acceleration in all directions, but having less and bigger cells may not improve battery performance in terms of power and cooling. This is why Tesla kept the same 12870 batteries on the s/x plaid
I want to take delivery of a model Y with the 4860 pack. The Austin Giga factory will be producing these. Unfortunately the state of TX will not allow an auto manufacturer to build a car and deliver that car to a TX resident if that manufacturer does not operate dealerships in the state where the vehicle is produced. As I understand this conundrum, cars produced in TX can't be sold to TX residents, they will have to be sold to residents of other states. Guessing this will lead to transfer of cars from 2nd parties back to TX.
I'm not going to pretend I followed all the math & if curiosity kills me am going to have to go back & re-perform that math - but just wanted to say what a great job you did & walking us through with facts & logic & wrapping it up in a tidy bow @ the end.
Right now the Performance Y has less range than the Long Range Y. It makes complete sense to put the 4680’s into the Performance Y, making it faster, lighter, and longer range. It’s a much more compelling reason to buy the Performance when that happens, as it will have better everything.
Ok they will reduce the pack size, they are about making money, the only thing that might stop them is if the competition is coming up fast. Elon has started saying 300mls range is quite enough. Also Fairmont is making giga castings so the change over might be fairly quick. If there is a bit of a drop in demand he can just dump cars in Hertz. Not a to uninspiring solution for MYP buyers as long as we get a more dynamic car with an improved 0 - 60 time. A bit surprised we have not had any solid leaks about this.
A very big thumbs up for that work, really very interesting ! I write you from Belgium, Europe, where we still wait the opening of Giga Berlin, finally first in 2170🙄... ... And i'm actually hesitating to buy a 2170 model YLR now or a 4680 later. For the range, you persuaded me that it will depends of what tesla will decide. I personnaly think that it will be a similar range with a smaller pack. I really think that the key in the use of EV will be the charging speed and time. No need to have a big battery if you charge fast. (it is too heavy for the daily use, very long trips are rare). Si what iare your thoughts about the charging curve, speed and time of the 4680 ? Do you have a comparaison with the actual 79kwh? Thanks again...
Based on the formula, the current Model Y would have the following ranges. The difference in range is mind blowing! 60 mph: 312 miles 70 mph: 258 miles (54 miles less than driving 60 mph) 75 mph: 236 miles (76 miles less than driving 60 mph) 80 mph: 215 miles (97 miles less than driving 60 mph) 4680 Model Y: 60 mph: 325 miles (+13 miles over current model) 70 mph: 267 miles (+9 miles over current model) 75 mph: 243 miles (+7 miles over current model) 80 mph: 222 miles (+7 miles over current model)
An interesting and informative video. However, your range calculations are based solely on steady speed driving which is rare in normal use where there are frequent speed changes. Reduced mass will have a greater overall effect on range than the steady speed calculation suggests. My guess is that the increased range performance under real driving conditions will be a percentage between the steady speed you calculated and the accelerative increase you also calculated.
I don’t think the actual battery cells per se are part of the structure in the new 4680 battery pack. The battery pack case will provide a robust structure which will act as a chassis component instead of as a separate relatively weak container like the old battery packs.
The massive issue I see with structural battery pack is lifespan. On current Tesla, if your battery dies, you can always replace it. I don't see that possible on a structural battery pack... This would mean the day your battery dies, even if it's just a cell, you trash the car. Huge issue both for owner and environment...
Motor tech you are ridiculous, that was freaking amazing I sure as crap can’t do the math lol but you made everything very understandable. Love your work. Thanks for sharing. Liked and subscribed.
I agree they can artificial match the performance of cars from various plants. But the may make stealth higher performance versions you can buy for a few thousand more, as they did with the 3 in 2018.
Personally I see them just making the performance from Austin and everything else Fremont for now. They can give the performance a range / speed boost, maybe price as well. This will allow Tesla to maintain margins while the ramp of production is low. Telsa may keep the pack reduce the pack size so range is the same as previous versions, reducing cost of the pack further. Long term Tesla is going to move the long range to 4680 as well.
It will be interesting to see how it makes a round trip up Mt. Evans or Pikes Peak in Colorado. Does breaking down the mountain result in reasonable power regeneration?
So if I were to order a Model Y right now for a stated August Delivery would mine be coming from Giga Austin? Also, tremendous video, I really liked enjoyed how you explained everything.
Wait for confirmation. No one knows yet, imo they will just have another model y and sell it. No way they’re going to nerf models to equal out the other ones. Would be a waste. Imo
How Will Tesla Sell 2 Model Y versions when one is much lighter with better technology?
Different markets.
Maby Texas is going to take the sales from fremont then fremont can change over to semi and cybertruck production
Price of course. The model Y with 4680 will only come as a performance version with a hefty sticker price. It will be so expensive that only true enthusiasts will buy it.
Fremont is gonna be strictly model 3
@@whynotstartusingyourbrain8726 I agree.
Awesome work man! I think you might've actually cracked how Tesla is going to handle delivering Model Y from Austin w/ 4680s and Fremont w/ 2170s at the same time. Since performance is definitely much lower volume than LR AWD, and where the main benefit lies, I think they'd probably discontinue Perf at Fremont first, and deliver all performance models with 4680s. As Austin scales, they could start supplementing Fremont with LR AWD with a similar range and performance to the 2170 version.
Brilliant work. It makes sense now for Tesla to offer the 4680 only in performance Y until they can ramp up battery production.
Wait really? Only for the performance first? Is that mentioned somewhere?
they already produced LRs in Texas
The interesting thing that the manager at my tesla space brought up when I asked about the 4680 cells and weather to buy now or wait is that even if there was a large range increase from the cell conversion in KW, they could always just reduce the battery pack size to maintain the promised range while also increasing profit margins.
But like you said, it will be a bigger change for performance rather than range and it will be interesting to see how they play with those metrics.
Agreed; his assumption that battery pack size will remain unchanged is really just a guess…
Love videos like this with useful data to back up what you’re thinking. Not like that click-baity guy where everything is “breaking news”
I have seen countless MY update videos and this one has by far been the most informative and my favorite, thank you!!
Great video, but the impact of less mass on the range is bigger when you not just drive with constant speed, but accelerate, brake, accelerate again, like city driving. And less mass better for the performance and lifetime of brakes and suspension. Better load capacity, better maneuverability etc.
Good point. It may be that in typical city driving the range increase will be proportionally greater.
Cracking the speed force continuum!! Am I the only one that thinks this guy should be working for Tesla crunching numbers for them?? Unreal man great work. I’m impressed.
Great video and explanation. I hope you’re right as my LR Y is sched for delivery to the east coast in June. I suspect they will reduce the cells/ size of the pack to lower cost and more closely match current Y pack with the 2170’s. That will increase profits and more battery yield to build more vehicles.
Mine was scheduled for March but then moved to June also on the East Coast. Wonder if that’s intentional
I think your forecast on reducing the battery pack size and cost to Tesla is more likely to be correct rather than increasing the range. I also don't think Tesla will pass on any of the cost savings to the buyers. We have a Model Y LR due in July.
I can see them starting out the first couple of new model years with the new 4680 structural pack not increasing in size but resulting in a much lighter CUV package over the first gen Model Y but still with around 340-350 miles of rated range and quicker times which is excellent.
Then in a few years for a refresh they could offer more cells for more range with a little more weight put back in or if they continue to improve on the electrode design of the 4680 to get even more energy density they can essentially keep the same weight with more range.
There might only be a small range gain on flat ground, since the aerodynamics doesn't change, but 200kg less weight might mean a substantial range gain if you live in mountainous terrain.
Another likely scenario as others mentioned, offer 4680 for performance only, and Fremont produce 2170 LR. Then as they scale up, LR is also 4680 and now they have a base variant of model Y which comes with 2170, and then the LR and Performance both comes with 4680 until 2170 can be replaced completely.
A shame you ignored the 4680 technology shift. Excellent work on the weight change and all implications.
Just a guess but Fremont Long Range Y's get bumped down to Standard Range, Fremont Y Performance bumped down to Long Range. Texas Y's become Performance versions until Fremont is switched over to 4680.
Great option.
Bring back the Standard Range option and upgrading the other two, at face values could solve the problems. I’m waiting for the new 4680s for the longer lasting battery and structural improvements (I plan on keeping this a very very long time).
@@Rebelsandglam Same here. Really need that super long range here in the Nordics with -20c.
Great analysis. Should also improve handling and reduce tire wear. Would prefer they do a hybrid of reducing weight by 250 lbs and adding more cells. Plus we not sure weight reduction from front and rear single piece castings
Yes this is an important point overlooked by the video. The 4680s are 14% taller than 2170s (as the pack is now also the floor, the batteries have 1cm more room in height while still leaving everything unchanged to make both structures interchangeable), as the area of the car remains unchanged, you could expect 14% more energy density if they wanted to fill the room.
Great contents, real number real science, unlike many other Youtubors only speculation and guessing without any contents or proof, GOOD JOB !!!!!!
You should have 100x more views based on your content
I cancelled my plans to order a Model Y Performance this week until I know I can get the new 4680 battery system here in California.
Who knows which Model Y you will get when ordering now? I keep seeing my delivery date slip further and further into the future (now at 10-11 months). If I have to wait 11 months and end up with a 2170 based car, I’m going to be pretty unhappy. Do you think there will be a cut date when 2170 are no longer used? If I were manufacturing, I would want to cut costs and weight as quickly as possible. Is that possible within one year? I suppose 2170’s could all go to Long Range and 4680 to Performance regardless of car model.
Depends on where you live. Austin will supply the US east coast with next-gen vehicles starting in March. I am guessing that Freemont retools in Q1 2023. You could always schedule your delivery to a friend or relative's address on the east coast if necessary ;)
i knew i shoulda listen more on my physics class.
thank you for your explanations here!
Any time!
This is one of the best videos I've ever watched! Nicely done, and thanks for making it!
I saw where the payload capacity in the Y increased my 180lbs ish. This may be all the weight the car is losing. I think there will be a lot of competition this year with electric cars especially form China. They may be able to just leave their pricing also and still have high sales. Nothing available is close to this performance for price. Maybe the new EV6 gt with 576hp but I bet production numbers will be trash. Which means price gouging if you want one.
Great video. 👍 My question is, if order a model Y performance now (living in North East) will I get the new 4680 batteries 🔋. The estimated delivery right now is March 2022, so I don’t see that happening, even with a LR expected delivery August 2022. Tesla delivers performance models first, but maybe the LR will have the 4680 since the delivery dates are far apart. Also, Elon said the cost would be cheaper with the one cast piecing & 4680 batteries. I’m really not sure how this will play out, but my guess is if you live in the North East you will get the new model Y. I just can’t wait to see if the website will update, something like model Y 2.0 🤷🏽
Great work, thank you for this great video and for taking the time to get it all together. Makes complete sense, straight to the point without the bullshit.
Hey I had a question. You mentioned that they would nerf the cars with the new cells because they will be superior. Are you saying once Tesla can produce the new cells everywhere, only then they will un-nerf the cars so they can operate at their full potential?
Contrary to your 400+ statement, I've been reading/hearing the new 4680 batter only yields 279 mile range - much SHORTER.
Is the COST the same or cheaper than the older batteries? I hate to LOSE range. Please help me understand and decide what to do re: purchasing now or waiting. Thanks.
Everyone pretty much knows about this now as far as 4680 coming out of Texas. I’m wondering if secretly they will start 4680 out of Fremont at the same time Texas gets approved. I hope so because I will be getting my Y in April and that’s about the time Austin will be ramping up. I live in the NW so my chances of getting a Y from Texas are slim.
I hope so! I’m a couple months behind you in the NW, with a delivery timeframe of mid-June to mid-July.
WE have a model y with the 4680 batteries as part of our order. I have had a RN number for over 7 months. The delivery date is Jan 2023 to April 2023. Do not have a clue what the range will be I hope around 475 mile range by information around battery day and other information. Anyone have a clue?? Thanks for any ideas!!
Hey great video - understand the aero drag affects range performance more than weight BUT - As we know many drivers will do less high speed journeys. What do the numbers look like when 40 mph is used - what does the difference look like then?
Thank you for this awesome video. The new 4680 cells I believe will be better profitability (and have a vertically integrated battery supply) to further mass produce. Like you, I also believe that Tesla will keep the same range. What your video brilliantly illustrates is that Tesla can make essentially the same exact Model Y, but through software, can offer a more expensive and more profitable Performance version.
I got my delivery date next week for Y and was going to cancel it. After seeing your awesome well-prepared video, scheduled the pickup and paid all the remainder. Thank you!
I think your missing the advantage of tabless 4680 batteries which increase the power available so the new model Y could have 700 HP?
Just found your article, very impressed, just hope it comes out that way as I have just ordered a MPY. Any chance of an update if you have had further thoughts, thanks
Nice analysis. Tesla can software limit the performance and accessible capacity of the 4680 pack to normalize the specs for the new model Y. Originally I think that Tesla planned to make the Giga Berlin Model Y the flagship, with the 4680 batteries, and added range and performance. But the delays in Germany, and the restrictions placed on getting European battery grants caused Tesla to rethink their plans, and make Giga Texas the star, with the 4680 powered Model Y coming out there. Another option is that Tesla could limit the pack capacity initially, so that the new 4680 Model Y has maybe a 65kWh pack, and similar range and performance as the 2170 model Y. I also like the idea of their being multiple Model Ys, with a LFP powered standard range, RWD entry model, the current dual motor, 2170 battery model, but with a price drop, the current Model Y Performance, with 2170 batteries (at a lower price) and the Model Y Plaid, with 4680 batteries, but a 100kWh pack, better acceleration, better range, and lighter weight. Giving reservation holders the option to choose the Plaid (4680+) Model Y for a few thousand more.
My model Y is scheduled to be delivered in June 2022 which is still 4 months away. Would it be equipped with 4680?
Good work but some comments: You use the "full" battery capacity rather than the "usable" capacity which, if changed, would improve the overall efficiency number which seemed a bit low at 80%. My other comment is that the key change here is a reduction in mass but it felt that this reduction number (for a 4680 structural battery) was the least well derived. I fully accept though that the main change is potentially improved acceleration and not range and I agree that Tesla will probably turn that down artificially to match the cars that don't use 4680.
My concern with the new Model Y structural battery pack is lower integrity of the frame because it is now made without the floor and the energy on impact will be absorbed by the battery pack itself leading to combustion.
The 4680 structural pack is more strong / rigid than current frame.
Good info. Thank you. I ordered the YP and its coming from Fremont. When I ordered, I thought it would be coming from Austin with the 4680 structural pack and giga castings, so it was disappointing I was wrong. I could cancel and reorder in hopes it will come from Austin next time (I'm on the East Coast), but that would cost the deposit and increase in FSD (an additional $2,250 total). I suspect, the differences will actually be modest and the version from Fremont has all the other latest tech. I'm leaning toward taking the Fremont build. Any advice?
I’m in the exact same situation. Just was assigned a Fremont vin and gave it up. Holding as long as I can...
When did you place your order?
@@goldentee1975 End of December.
Mine's a 380XXX VIN# w Intel and Lithium Ion Battery, that's what the SA said. Waiting for him to confirm how long will it get pushed out if I decide to unmatch VIN#.
Take the car you ordered. There is always going to be a faster/better version a year or so down the road. In most of your driving there will no difference and the new car will have its own issues as Tesla works out the bugs.
Interesting perspective. It would be great to see the 3 and Y performance models come in closer to 3.0 flat, which is a great value for money with respect to performance. For a 3 performance, going from 3.3s to 3.0-2.9s is a massive difference.
*ONE PROBLEM* with your range estimation.
--> IF the vehicle travels primarily in a hilly or mountainous region the range will be extended significantly. On flat land, not so much.
F=ma, The acceleration due to gravity is a larger component(rolling resistance) when rolling up hill than on a flat surface. That 200kg difference can make a huge difference under the right circumstances.
I sure hope the range is better than the 21 model y long range’s current range. I’m very disappointed in mine bc I barely get 200 miles of actual range. I park it and use my 2001 rx300. So much for blowing 65k on something that doesn’t do what it’s supposed to
Sick video dude. I haven't even finished it yet
Don’t Skip the tab-less and chemistry battery improvements! Those bring much higher charging speed, which greatly reduces ICE advantage over EV - convenience factor.
It has to be said that the EPA testing cycle average speed for the city segment is 21.2mph and 48.4mph for the highway segment. Both are lower than your 60mph assumption so the increase in range on the EPA sticker would be higher than the 5% you calculated.
Xcellent. I feel my 2021Model Y Performance should be faster lol but it’s been my slowest Tesla in 6 years starting with a Model S P90D and 2 Model 3 P’s. Closer to 3 seconds is sweet for it imho to 60 mph . Competition is gaining fast the new BNW I450 ( sedan ev) out accelerated the Model 3 Performance recently …
Outstanding presentation!!! How about the refreshed Model S? Will yo do something similar across some brands in their competing segments?
Really interesting video, but I'm confused by one part of your calculations - you show the velocity SQUARED in the "Power Consumption at any speed" equation, but when you show us the numbers, you show the velocity CUBED (26.8^3) - and when I did the math myself, you are depending on the velocity number being CUBED (as your numbers show, which is different than what the formula shows) - so, why the diff? Other than that, great video!
Hey, great question! The forces equation F(v) has the velocity SQUARED. But since Power=F(v)*v you can covert the forces equation to a power equation by multiplying everything by velocity. So the velocity SQUARED in the forces equation becomes velocity CUBED in the power equation. And then you can also see the rolling resistance forces are multiplied by velocity as well in the power equation.
Interesting. The most important thing about the 4680 is charge speed though.
Yessir! ..... but charging speed can also be throttled back in the short run until the fleet is homogenous.
@@eugeniustheodidactus8890 that is all nonsense. The Model Y 2.0 will a ridiculously expensive so that only true enthusiasts will buy it. That's how Tesla will be able to sell both at the same time.
@@whynotstartusingyourbrain8726 *???* I have a next gen model y arriving from Austin this summer. It is not ridiculously expensive as it is the *same exact price* of the current model Y.
@@eugeniustheodidactus8890 how do you know it will be from Austin?
@@whynotstartusingyourbrain8726 It is well known that GIga Austin will be supplying Model Ys to the east coast of the USA where I live.
I think that initially, at least, "Performance" model Y's will come from Texas w/4680's, while standard & long range models will come from Fremont, until production capacity ramps up to the point where they can Refurb the Fremont plant and start producing the same cars at both plants. At that point Texas cars will go to the eastern US while Fremont cars will go to the west.
Fremont has a 4680 running line as well.
I canceled my order because my myp was coming from Fremont .....feb 18-28 got vin # it had 2170 batt ...I really doubt when I get the new vin it will be from Texas with the 4680 batt I’m in NY
Great video, love calculations like these. You said rolling resistance is less important as aero starting at 50mph. But I wonder how much people actually drive faster as 50mph. In the US this might be a large percentage of the drives but in a lot of other countries a large part of the road system have lower as 50mph speed limits.
Furthermore think they will indeed add 30% more batteries to each car, since with a structural battery pack, it wouldn't be possible to have empty space in the pack without messing up the rigidity of it. So unless they make the cars shorter or narrower, I don't see how that would be possible.
If they add batteries, the price will also rise as it will definitely cost more
Doesn't matter if you drive no faster than 10mph the aero is for we Americans and Germans but doesn't hurt you slow guys so it's a moot point . Also you are wrong on how the battery packs work whether they add or take away space, another moot point. It's not a generic "platform" like GMs or VWs. 🚗
Wow that was incredibly enlightening. Thanks for all your work!
What if they just call it the Model Y Plaid. I'm sure if the ask Model Y Performance reservation holders for 5-10k more they will opt to upgrade to a Plaid.
Coulb be a very simple solution. But it also needs more range. Plaid plus?
Excellent logic, presentation and ethics...
You just got a new sub! Looking foward for next great things!
Awesome upload!!! Thank you for taking the time to create such an informative video.
Very nice analysis. Please add one thing: the 4680 car is going to be much safer going through turns as the centrifugal force pushing you out on the tangente is much smaller. Anyone who has tried to make a fast lap on a closed circuit has experienced that a lighter car beats a more powerful car as it can aford higher speeds during turns. A more powerful car is only faster in the straight line. So having « more grip » in turns, especially fast ones is a great safety margin for the new model.
Very much enjoyed your great video
Cheers
I’m
Still waiting on my Y hopefully it’s 4680 how do I know 😮 my delivery is November 27 - December 25 please reply ordered in June
Holy smokes! Subbed and sharing on twitter! Great work!
Awesome VID! Tesla with 4680 it it recommended to charge100% ?
His opinion is that Tesla will make the Model Y LR 4680 have the same battery capacity as the current MYLR-2170, then downgrade the performance to match the MYLR-2170. The problem I see with that is that customers getting MYLR-4680 will know that they can get a significant performance increase in the future with just a software update. So a significant number of people holding orders will still try to hold out for the 4680. It seems almost necessary to me that they will introduce some sort of price differential.
I sure hope they give buyers the visibility and option to choose. A small premium for the 4680 version would make a ton of sense.
Amazing work put together for this video.
We love our July 2020 build Model Y, but the minute I can order a 4680 battery Y I will pull the trigger.
Great work!! Yesterday I received my VIN for my MYP and I was hoping for an A but I got an F in the VIN. Kinda disappointed. I was hoping for a 4680 pack not for the range but just as you eluded to, the performance increase.
This is why I am waiting, because I can't be sure which version they will ship me. I hope to order mine in the next two week (YP).
Same here - Received my VIN yesterday (Feb 27) for LR Y and it's a Fremont build. Now have to decide to refuse it and roll the dice that the next VIN assigned will be Austin...
Good work. I think you are correct, Tesla will throttle down power output of the new lighter Model Y's until they all are being manufactured with the new packs, then do a software update to increase power, at a price. Just like they do already, you can purchase an enhance performance upgrade for $2k. I think that is how they will tackle this or, maybe for a short term offer more variations of Model Y with the new pack Y's at a premium price.
The other benefit of a lighter vehicle is longer tire life as well.
Great video, thanks.
I think they might try to find a middle ground solution by both increasing range a bit more (say about 10%) and reducing weight a bit less (say about 50-100 kg)
Excellent breakdown except one factor you are not really discussing. Most people spend half the time in city driving. In the city, constant stop & go, stop & go plays a part on range. That difference of 500 lbs. can make a difference at the end of your charge when overcoming this inertia. Once moving, yes, aerodynamics play the larger role. Most of us know that the 4680 is really just an incremental increase in range but of course, the cost of production is less, the volume of batteries produced (KW power per hour) is drastically increased and adding everything up means a great step in the right direction. I haven't even mentioned the benefits of the tab-less design and much better the actual cell charges and delivers its power. I think, in the real world, Musk can, for the same MSRP, slightly reduce the size of the battery while slightly increasing range, reduce manufacturing costs and help its performance all at once.
Yo this channel is gonna blow up if you keep posting vids
Just like ICE cars have different engine sizes obviously structural pack weight savings allow for more batteries , performance & range so all 4680 models will be performance + range versions while older LFB will be economy models !
4680 likely will be 100 KW & 20-25% range increase with added performance specs !
Thank you for the clear description. I assume you’re wind resistance is at sea level. I wonder how much this would change at say 6000 feet elevation?
Thanks for information, my delivery at June this summer, I have to make sure my model y from Texas with 4680 batteries otherwise I have to postpone again
I’m in the exact same boat with an EDD of June 28. If it’s not a 4680 from Texas, how do you go about postponing? 🙏🏼
For a model 3 LR/P I would say the cost and weight savings of the 4680 is a no-brainer. For a model Y LR, the lower weight may reduce the ride quality, which is the biggest complaint people have. Heavier cars ride better. For a model YP, the reduced weight itself will improve acceleration in all directions, but having less and bigger cells may not improve battery performance in terms of power and cooling. This is why Tesla kept the same 12870 batteries on the s/x plaid
I want to take delivery of a model Y with the 4860 pack. The Austin Giga factory will be producing these. Unfortunately the state of TX will not allow an auto manufacturer to build a car and deliver that car to a TX resident if that manufacturer does not operate dealerships in the state where the vehicle is produced. As I understand this conundrum, cars produced in TX can't be sold to TX residents, they will have to be sold to residents of other states. Guessing this will lead to transfer of cars from 2nd parties back to TX.
I'm not going to pretend I followed all the math & if curiosity kills me am going to have to go back & re-perform that math - but just wanted to say what a great job you did & walking us through with facts & logic & wrapping it up in a tidy bow @ the end.
Have you considered doing a video on cybertruck range and battery size based on estimated frontal area and weight?
Yes, this will be coming in the next few weeks!
I need to brush up on my engineering class before I can understand your analysis!
I think you are right on in your analysis. Perhaps they will software limit range and speed until the two factories are making the same car.
Awesome to see your views increasing! Congrats, you earned it!
Right now the Performance Y has less range than the Long Range Y. It makes complete sense to put the 4680’s into the Performance Y, making it faster, lighter, and longer range. It’s a much more compelling reason to buy the Performance when that happens, as it will have better everything.
Ok they will reduce the pack size, they are about making money, the only thing that might stop them is if the competition is coming up fast. Elon has started saying 300mls range is quite enough. Also Fairmont is making giga castings so the change over might be fairly quick. If there is a bit of a drop in demand he can just dump cars in Hertz. Not a to uninspiring solution for MYP buyers as long as we get a more dynamic car with an improved 0 - 60 time. A bit surprised we have not had any solid leaks about this.
Excellent video! This video is terrific fuel to get my younger students excited about science and math.
WOW the love of TESLA, brings out these SMART GUYS!
What do you think specs would be if they did a standard range?
A very big thumbs up for that work, really very interesting !
I write you from Belgium, Europe, where we still wait the opening of Giga Berlin, finally first in 2170🙄...
... And i'm actually hesitating to buy a 2170 model YLR now or a 4680 later.
For the range, you persuaded me that it will depends of what tesla will decide.
I personnaly think that it will be a similar range with a smaller pack.
I really think that the key in the use of EV will be the charging speed and time. No need to have a big battery if you charge fast. (it is too heavy for the daily use, very long trips are rare).
Si what iare your thoughts about the charging curve, speed and time of the 4680 ?
Do you have a comparaison with the actual 79kwh?
Thanks again...
Based on the formula, the current Model Y would have the following ranges. The difference in range is mind blowing!
60 mph: 312 miles
70 mph: 258 miles (54 miles less than driving 60 mph)
75 mph: 236 miles (76 miles less than driving 60 mph)
80 mph: 215 miles (97 miles less than driving 60 mph)
4680 Model Y:
60 mph: 325 miles (+13 miles over current model)
70 mph: 267 miles (+9 miles over current model)
75 mph: 243 miles (+7 miles over current model)
80 mph: 222 miles (+7 miles over current model)
An interesting and informative video. However, your range calculations are based solely on steady speed driving which is rare in normal use where there are frequent speed changes. Reduced mass will have a greater overall effect on range than the steady speed calculation suggests. My guess is that the increased range performance under real driving conditions will be a percentage between the steady speed you calculated and the accelerative increase you also calculated.
Very good video and well done. Looking forward for more deep tech videos from you
Bro your website is op 🔥🔥
I don’t think the actual battery cells per se are part of the structure in the new 4680 battery pack. The battery pack case will provide a robust structure which will act as a chassis component instead of as a separate relatively weak container like the old battery packs.
The massive issue I see with structural battery pack is lifespan. On current Tesla, if your battery dies, you can always replace it. I don't see that possible on a structural battery pack... This would mean the day your battery dies, even if it's just a cell, you trash the car. Huge issue both for owner and environment...
Interesting. I hadn’t thought of this. I would think (hope) Tesla thought of this and designed the structure to allow for replacing 4680 cells.
Motor tech you are ridiculous, that was freaking amazing I sure as crap can’t do the math lol but you made everything very understandable. Love your work. Thanks for sharing. Liked and subscribed.
Im hoping the 4680 cells charge a lot faster than the current 2170. That in itself would be a big advantage for the 4680 cell model Y.
I agree they can artificial match the performance of cars from various plants. But the may make stealth higher performance versions you can buy for a few thousand more, as they did with the 3 in 2018.
Love Tesla!
Can't wait for the 2023 Roadster w/4680 🔥
There will be no 2023 roadster.
Which isn’t a real car 🤣🤣
How about model 3? Will it ever get the 4680 battery and if so when? - should I cancel my current model 3 LR order and wait?!
Personally I see them just making the performance from Austin and everything else Fremont for now. They can give the performance a range / speed boost, maybe price as well. This will allow Tesla to maintain margins while the ramp of production is low. Telsa may keep the pack reduce the pack size so range is the same as previous versions, reducing cost of the pack further.
Long term Tesla is going to move the long range to 4680 as well.
You're missing the weight savings from the single piece front and single piece back. these remove about an additional 400 pounds (200 each).
Sell the new MY as Performance model. Manufacture in Freemont only MY LR models.
Yes.
It will be interesting to see how it makes a round trip up Mt. Evans or Pikes Peak in Colorado. Does breaking down the mountain result in reasonable power regeneration?
Nice engineering work, and fluid presentation.
When is the new model y available?
So if I were to order a Model Y right now for a stated August Delivery would mine be coming from Giga Austin? Also, tremendous video, I really liked enjoyed how you explained everything.
Wait for confirmation. No one knows yet, imo they will just have another model y and sell it. No way they’re going to nerf models to equal out the other ones. Would be a waste. Imo