Football Doesn't Matter
Football Doesn't Matter
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How much is a turnover worth?
One thing that's fascinated me more than usual during these NFL Playoffs has been turnovers. In this video, we dive into how much a turnover is worth and breakdown the value of a few turnovers that happened during this postseason so far.
Time Stamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:31 - EPA 101
4:21 - How much is a turnover worth?
7:38 - A small caveat
8:28 - Turnovers in the 2024-2025 playoffs
10:42 - Conclusion
Credits & Sources:
Expected Point Values Sheet by Brian Burke: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rbPkPwwZjv0n9HtF2G7KgLf4w5vsVZcZEONWkhTrojk/edit?usp=sharing
harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/
www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/
sportsratings.typepad.com/college_football/2010/11/how-many-points-is-a-turnover-worth-survey-of-the-literature.html
All stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus.
Follow me on Twitter: fbdoesntmatter
Переглядів: 4 361

Відео

Minnesota's Sam Darnold question.
Переглядів 35 тис.28 днів тому
Sam Darnold not only revived his career, but came out absolutely swinging this NFL season. But his emergence with the Minnesota Vikings comes at a strange time. On the roster, he's set up like a bridge quarterback for rookie JJ McCarthy. However, suddenly he's playing like a franchise guy. So, what do the Vikings do? Time Stamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:40 - Why Darnold's been so good 5:21 - Playoff sce...
Zombie Kirk Cousins.
Переглядів 22 тис.Місяць тому
Kirk Cousins hasn't looked like the same guy for 5 weeks now. At one point, the Atlanta Falcons were 6-3 and atop the NFC West. Now, they're looking up from second place. Over that same time, their quarterback Kirk Cousins has had one of the worst stretches of his career. Can he right the ship? Or are we witnessing a quarterback enter the final phase of his career? Time Stamps: 0:00 - Intro 2:1...
So... Bryce Young is good now?
Переглядів 61 тис.Місяць тому
Bryce Young's first 18 games really couldn't have gone worse. But suddenly, over the past 6 weeks, he's seemingly turned it around. We dive into why and how the shift for Young and the Carolina Panthers has happened. Time Stamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:36 - How good has Bryce Young actually been? 3:30 - The 3 Ps: Play calling, playmakers, pass protection 8:34 - Young's fantastic sense of anticipation 1...
Are the Vikings for real?
Переглядів 2,9 тис.3 місяці тому
Unexpectedly, the Minnesota Vikings have one of the best records in the league through 7 weeks. Are they for real? Or is it all just a mirage? In this video, we dive into their most recent game against the Lions and discuss Sam Darnold and the Vikings' defense more in depth. Time Stamps: 0:00 - Are the Vikings for real? 1:04 - Sam Darnold good 4:09 - Sam Darnold bad 5:56 - Vikings defense 8:21 ...
Propped up passers.
Переглядів 14 тис.3 місяці тому
Some quarterbacks get more help from their teams than others. In this video, we dive into 3 QBs during the 2024 NFL season who are being propped up by their defenses. Time Stamps: 0:00 - Propped up passers 1:24 - Justin Fields 5:45 - Bo Nix 9:00 - Justin Herbert Credits & Sources: www.nytimes.com/athletic/5845418/2024/10/15/mike-tomlin-media-availability-steelers-fields-wilson/ www.nytimes.com/...
Joe Flacco can hoop. Deshaun Watson cannot.
Переглядів 35 тис.3 місяці тому
Deshaun Watson has had a miserable 2024 season with the Cleveland Browns. Only last year, Joe Flacco gave the team so much hope at the position. In this video, we dive into why the team looks different between the two signal callers from year to year. Time Stamps: 0:00 - Joe Flacco vs. Deshaun Watson 1:15 - How Flacco and Watson crossed paths 3:30 - Difference in roster, pass protection 6:18 - ...
7 teams that won't make the playoffs.
Переглядів 16 тис.3 місяці тому
No NFL team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention... yet. But that doesn't mean we can't make some calls on a few teams that won't get there, just four weeks into the season. In this video, we dive into 7 struggling teams and discuss why they won't make the postseason. Time Stamps: 0:00 - 7 teams that won't make the playoffs 0:31 - Jacksonville Jaguars 2:52 - New England Patriots...
Quarterback panic rankings.
Переглядів 116 тис.4 місяці тому
It's only week 4, but it's never too early to panic about quarterbacks. In this video, we dive into the 7 quarterbacks that have the most anxiety around them and rank them based on how panicked their fanbases should be about them. Time Stamps: 0:00 - The quarterback panic rankings 0:40 - 7. Caleb Williams 2:11 - 6. Anthony Richardson 4:19 - 5. Daniel Jones 6:38 - 4. Will Levis 8:18 - 3. Trevor ...
Aaron Rodgers opened his third (down) eye.
Переглядів 10 тис.4 місяці тому
Use code DOESNTMATTER for $20 off your first SeatGeek order. seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/DOESNTMATTER Sponsored by SeatGeek Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets dominated the New England Patriots in week 3 on Thursday Night Football. While Rodgers had an all-around vintage performance against a lesser team, the aspect of his game that stuck out the most to me was his efficiency on 3rd downs. In thi...
"The Malik Willis game."
Переглядів 31 тис.4 місяці тому
Malik Willis had become a bit of a joke heading into week 2, when he was called upon to start in place of an injured Jordan Love. However, he did just enough and the Green Bay Packers got the win. In this video, we dive into the Packers' strategy and how Malik Willis played. Time Stamps: 0:00 - Packers vs. Colts review 3:00 - Green Bay's run game and strategy 6:43 - So, what about Malik Willis?...
TJ Watt is still a monster, btw.
Переглядів 3,3 тис.4 місяці тому
TJ Watt and the Steelers spoiled Kirk Cousins' debut with the Atlanta Falcons. In this video, we breakdown some of the ways they did it, look into the flaws of Atlanta's game plan, and discuss what to expect this NFL season for this team. Time Stamps: 0:00 - TJ Watt's week 1 2:14 - Falcons' predictability 4:03 - The Steelers' pass rush 5:04 - What's next for Watt & Pittsburgh? Credits & Sources...
Week 1 disasters.
Переглядів 14 тис.4 місяці тому
Week 1 disasters.
This isn't the same Ravens offensive line.
Переглядів 3,4 тис.4 місяці тому
This isn't the same Ravens offensive line.
Ranking all 32 backup quarterbacks.
Переглядів 73 тис.4 місяці тому
Ranking all 32 backup quarterbacks.
The art of the bridge quarterback.
Переглядів 115 тис.5 місяців тому
The art of the bridge quarterback.
Putting a price on Love.
Переглядів 7 тис.6 місяців тому
Putting a price on Love.
How good can Baker Mayfield be?
Переглядів 18 тис.6 місяців тому
How good can Baker Mayfield be?
The Vikings defense is everywhere all at once.
Переглядів 25 тис.6 місяців тому
The Vikings defense is everywhere all at once.
How passer rating lies to you.
Переглядів 44 тис.7 місяців тому
How passer rating lies to you.
Is Brock Purdy just a system quarterback?
Переглядів 28 тис.7 місяців тому
Is Brock Purdy just a system quarterback?
Why the Colts are going all-in with Anthony Richardson.
Переглядів 23 тис.7 місяців тому
Why the Colts are going all-in with Anthony Richardson.
Deshaun Watson isn't that guy anymore.
Переглядів 56 тис.8 місяців тому
Deshaun Watson isn't that guy anymore.
Can Will Levis win now?
Переглядів 43 тис.8 місяців тому
Can Will Levis win now?
Is this the prince we were promised?
Переглядів 76 тис.8 місяців тому
Is this the prince we were promised?
Daniel Jones conspiracy theory.
Переглядів 66 тис.8 місяців тому
Daniel Jones conspiracy theory.
Will Aidan O'Connell keep his job?
Переглядів 46 тис.9 місяців тому
Will Aidan O'Connell keep his job?
Tom Brady could be the next Joe Flacco.
Переглядів 2,5 тис.9 місяців тому
Tom Brady could be the next Joe Flacco.
Quarterback busts who redeemed themselves.
Переглядів 143 тис.10 місяців тому
Quarterback busts who redeemed themselves.
What happened to Russell Wilson?
Переглядів 1,9 тис.10 місяців тому
What happened to Russell Wilson?

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @Terence-g2q
    @Terence-g2q День тому

    Go Bryce. Canales made a genius move by benching him.Fate for once sided with the Panthers ( but against the Red Rifle), forcing Young to up a notch. Thanks for all blessings. But let’s stay in our lane. Five good games don’t make a HOF’er. Consistency will.

    • @Terence-g2q
      @Terence-g2q День тому

      (Contd) My concern is Bryce is still 5-10 , 185. One big fat lineman landing on him the wrong way and Dalton ( or whoever) is back in there, BY9!doing more learning holding a clipboard…,and developing a reputation of ‘injury-prone’

  • @macsaviour
    @macsaviour 2 дні тому

    3x would be lovely

  • @PatriotMapper
    @PatriotMapper 4 дні тому

    Funny coming back to this after the season. Jameis Winston, Michael Penix Jr., Drew Lock, Kenny Pickett, and Mac Jones had some good games every now and then.

  • @Redwoodroc
    @Redwoodroc 4 дні тому

    Baltimore’s defense also hasn’t forced a turnover in 5 years. They’ve forced 1 in the last 8 playoff games, which is a huge factor in why they’re losing. You look at the history of teams that average <1 turnover forced per game, and no team has had a winning record through a regular season with that stat. Baltimore is averaging 0.13. What’s even crazier is that, prior to Lamar Jackson being drafted, Baltimore had never went a playoff game without a turnover forced. 24 straight games, averaging almost 3 per game from 2000-2018.

  • @Off-mY-mEDDss
    @Off-mY-mEDDss 4 дні тому

    Love the video. Liked and subscribed.

  • @tuck3771
    @tuck3771 4 дні тому

    6:07 BINGO!

  • @kaspershaupt
    @kaspershaupt 4 дні тому

    Turnovers are one of the most important stats and EPA is still confusing

  • @corsicacommander8371
    @corsicacommander8371 5 днів тому

    Simping is frowned upon

  • @ADUSN
    @ADUSN 5 днів тому

    Detroit and Baltimore beat themselves. Such a shame.

  • @cheesebean414
    @cheesebean414 5 днів тому

    3st!

  • @worldsheaviestjamband93
    @worldsheaviestjamband93 5 днів тому

    Haha I didn’t realize this video was 3 months old and got quite a laugh when I saw Daniel Jones. (Giants fan here)

  • @Zepi827
    @Zepi827 5 днів тому

    “I’m a simp”😭😭😭

  • @shifty1927
    @shifty1927 5 днів тому

    Philly was +3 in the turnover battle the last time they played Washington and still lost. Wild

    • @kaspershaupt
      @kaspershaupt 4 дні тому

      Hurts also got concussed

    • @HTTRHTTC
      @HTTRHTTC 4 дні тому

      @@adsafgasgasdfasdfhow exactly was that a cheap shot Jalen hurts? He just tackled him and Jalen’s head hit the ground. Not the defenders fault. You guys act like this but we all know that if in that game marshon was ejected for having 2 unsportsmanlikes and Jayden got concussed by a non malicious tackle like Jalen in that game, you guys would’ve been the same things commanders fans have been saying. (Also I guess we’re not going to talk about the bs pass interference calls and the fact that the Eagles got an away with holding like 80 million times right? As well as Jayden diming your supposedly “elite” defense up.

    • @shifty1927
      @shifty1927 4 дні тому

      @@adsafgasgasdfasdf are all eagles fans this slow? Or are you an outlier? Nice made up percentages to attempt to reinforce your idiotic opinion.

    • @PatriotMapper
      @PatriotMapper 4 дні тому

      @@adsafgasgasdfasdf If you can't beat a team that turned the ball over 5 times, you don't deserve to win. It doesn't matter if you have a QB2 out there or not. (And it's not like Kenny Pickett played bad, he had a very solid performance.)

    • @PatriotMapper
      @PatriotMapper 3 дні тому

      @@adsafgasgasdfasdf yeah yeah bad take on my part aged poorly whatever

  • @Dustin031
    @Dustin031 13 днів тому

    He’s been good his entire life. Got put on a terrible team and all of a sudden was labeled terrible. He’s always been a great QB and always will be. Just needs a support system, like any other great QB needs.

  • @anthonyjb28
    @anthonyjb28 19 днів тому

    Wow first time seeing your face

  • @jacobgross4469
    @jacobgross4469 19 днів тому

    I don’t think Aiden O Connell is that bad I think he is one of the better backups in the league he actually looks pretty solid when he comes off the bench or starts

  • @JakobulousW
    @JakobulousW 21 день тому

    Bryce young should be included in a later video

  • @JosephDunlap-o5z
    @JosephDunlap-o5z 21 день тому

    Bro I have said since he came into the league he needed time to develop

  • @carl6352
    @carl6352 21 день тому

    The Buds got the grown up Bakera, when your at your last stop you give it your all,, We have a top 5 rec corp, above average line. He can eye the field. Last he's a family man.😘

  • @JesseCase
    @JesseCase 22 дні тому

    You should remake this video now that the season is over and after Bryce had his absolute best game against the filthy Falcons! He played like a top 5 QB against the Falcons!

  • @jameswinslow8540
    @jameswinslow8540 25 днів тому

    I feel like the Vikings offense is very qb friendly, I think JJ will do fine in it and they can franchise darnold/trade him.

  • @mikeyentsch
    @mikeyentsch 25 днів тому

    I'm thinking Sam may fit the bill here now, hoping he maintains this, even if it isn’t ultimately in MN.

  • @Darnold4Prez2024
    @Darnold4Prez2024 25 днів тому

    I swear to god, if we let him walk…. 🤮

  • @Darnold4Prez2024
    @Darnold4Prez2024 25 днів тому

    I’d wife up hawk Tua easily

  • @mikeyentsch
    @mikeyentsch 25 днів тому

    Round 2 coming up and I can't wait 🎉

  • @LARRY113Z
    @LARRY113Z 26 днів тому

    No he's been with the same girl for over a year... DMASS

  • @oldfart5063
    @oldfart5063 26 днів тому

    you were mostly on the money , even about how his future after carolina would go . but , to sams credit hes still fighting and looking good going into week 18 with a 14-2 record about to play for the number one seed and home field throughout the play offs . SKOL . [oh by the way its 2024 .

  • @retrocny5625
    @retrocny5625 26 днів тому

    You don't trade away a QB who's played this well and given your team a chance at the #1 seed and 14+ wins. I'd sign Darnold to a 3 yr deal and get it done for a decent price, and roll with him for the near future. Darnold is tired of bouncing around teams and not playing. He likely wants security as a starter and wants to win games. May not cost a ton. I'd then hang JJ out there as trade bait to see what I could get for him. You never know, look at a team like the Giants. They are in desperate need of a QB. They bungled their draft spot last week by beating the colts and now they find themselves in a position where both Sanders and Ward may be gone before they're on the clock. If they're on the clock and both those QBs are gone, and they couldn't trade up to secure one of them... they may be willing to part with pick 4 or other assets in order to bring in JJ McCarthy, who for all intents and purposes is still a rookie. That's the only way I'd do it if I'm the vikings I think. Vikings could get a blue chip prospect and high impact player at a position of need... and you're rolling with Darnold anyway. It's actually really intriguing for both teams. No guarantee McCarthy is your QB of the future in Minnesota anyway, jury is still out on him. Giants need to take a chance like this and McCarthy could end up being their guy and it works out for them too.

  • @CooperDoesSports
    @CooperDoesSports 26 днів тому

    My boy Malik Willis looked good in a few games this season so he definitely could end up ranked higher next year . That and he is showing more in his scrambling ability

  • @fantasyawait
    @fantasyawait 26 днів тому

    First geno then darnold whose ready for the Zach wilson redemption tour 😂😂

  • @TheGoodDevil
    @TheGoodDevil 26 днів тому

    Great video brother

  • @carlspackler8988
    @carlspackler8988 26 днів тому

    That's it... don't turn the ball over and don't take sacks the formula to success......

  • @carlspackler8988
    @carlspackler8988 26 днів тому

    You got that right... Football doesn't matter to real life. But Sam Darnold is playing his best football of his life right now! It's because of KOC

  • @bobsope4284
    @bobsope4284 26 днів тому

    Another banger video. You have turned into my favorite channel to tune into for more in depth NFL coverage. I think that Darnold has already surpassed the ceiling of JJ McCarthy, but it's so hard to know if Darnold can replicate it again next year. If he can, then yeah I think I would lean heavily into trading JJ. Especially considering how weak this upcoming QB draft is...

  • @Bullboy_Adventures
    @Bullboy_Adventures 26 днів тому

    As a texans fan, im worried how similar strouds situation is compared to jones

  • @kashshhds8824
    @kashshhds8824 27 днів тому

    A 27 year old qb 5 years is what he has left

  • @playinragz8183
    @playinragz8183 27 днів тому

    You have to sign him because he showed he’s that good. In this scheme with Vikes.

  • @eagleman983
    @eagleman983 27 днів тому

    JJ Mccarthy was never supposed to be the starter this year, he was always going to sit behind Sam Darnold even without the injury

  • @foreignerescapestothephi-lj3ls
    @foreignerescapestothephi-lj3ls 27 днів тому

    The question is: Will he CHOKE in the playoffs! That is the question!

  • @k-2768
    @k-2768 27 днів тому

    1. Don’t do what Eagles did 2. Go with the hot hand 3. JJ is an asset so he’ll be valuable in the trade market… 4. Vikings won’t win the Super Bowl

  • @samuelstangle133
    @samuelstangle133 27 днів тому

    Id say shop him while his market value is at its peak. Unless you get to the Nfc championship, then you ride with him for 2 or 3 yrs.

  • @pvrpleheff
    @pvrpleheff 27 днів тому

    We never traded jj stop with that bs!!

  • @pvrpleheff
    @pvrpleheff 27 днів тому

    stop with this wait until the offseason!!

  • @macgruber7948
    @macgruber7948 27 днів тому

    Sam Darnold currently is and was a better prospect at QB than JJM period. If he wins a playoff game or beats the Lions next week a contract is almost guranteed.

  • @vengefulfork7169
    @vengefulfork7169 27 днів тому

    Did Sam get the HAWK tuah? Brainrot aside I enjoyed this vid quite a bit 😂 bears have me depressed so I’m pulling for the Vikings this year to finally get it done

  • @Zetler
    @Zetler 27 днів тому

    If they don’t franchise him, he’s walking after the season.

  • @markhuru
    @markhuru 27 днів тому

    If you look at minn past when they were in superbowl they had the players, but when you look at how many years they can keep up the winning quality, it's a small window. 3 yrs tops is when a group can win. Look also at Chicago Bears. One and done, great team at the right peakness, Detroit really has a great chance this year, but , the talk of injuries?

  • @duanekaaz3159
    @duanekaaz3159 28 днів тому

    Give him $20 or $25 million. 1 year. To See 👀 if he can duplicate the Same Year as this year. Just an idea?

  • @ericolson4621
    @ericolson4621 28 днів тому

    still go with franchise tag sam than trade to san fran to fight with purdy for start jj and jones fight for start in mn of course super bowl messes up that eother way SKOL

  • @marcmarco5373
    @marcmarco5373 28 днів тому

    8:30 HALLELUIAH ! At last someone who uses the metric that EVERYBODY should use to assess NFL contract : Cap percentage ! Well one : subscribing to your channel for that alone !